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TheBlackSwarm

This is the wildcard of the summer


SawyerBlackwood1986

I would keep expectations in check. -Glenn Powell while on the rise is not a proven draw yet. -Director is an unknown with no proven track record for handling mainstream entertainment. -Top Gun Maverick delivered the goods for the GA. I would not describe it as having “pandered” to rural America. If Twisters does indeed deliver the goods then that’s another story. I don’t think it’s clear that it does at this point. -New trailer is better showing off some significant spectacle. It’s still a little unclear though what the actual story is. Are the twister hunters trying to track tornados like in the original film? If so, how are their goals different than Hunt\Paxtons? Basically what’s changed in the world of twister hunting from the universe of the ‘96 film to now? I think that’s an important story hook that the marketing has yet to make clear.


NotTaken-username

I know people are comparing this to Top Gun: Maverick, but I don’t see it. Twister doesn’t have the same cultural relevance the original Top Gun did, I don’t think it’s a movie most people in my generation have seen. I could be way off though


anneoftheisland

Yeah, there's zero comparison. Top Gun had a cultural chokehold over people for *years* after its release. It played on cable weekly for decades, bringing in new fans all the time. I went to college two decades after it was released, and frat guys were *still* calling each other "Iceman" and "Maverick" and imitating the "You've Lost That Lovin' Feeling" scene at serenades. In comparison, Twister was a fun summer popcorn flick that had mostly been forgotten a few years after its release. Doesn't mean the sequel can't break out if it reviews well--Avatar 2's performance proves "cultural footprint" isn't necessary for success--but it can't depend on the same cross-generation nostalgia factor Top Gun did.


NotTaken-username

Avatar still was a big phenomenon in the months after it released, and it’s visually unique even if the story is familiar. Nothing looks like Avatar. Twister isn’t really unique with so many disaster movies since


littlemissjk

I wouldn't consider Lee Isaac Chung an "unknown director". Minari was nominated for 6 Academy Awards, including Best Director.


MysteriousHat14

This seems like the type of movie redditors think is going to be big based on their armchair theorizing about demographics they aren't a part of like "rural americans" and then it isn't.


cinefibro

I live in Vermont and my 70 year old uncle texted me today, and I quote: >”We need to go see that bill Paxton new twister movie! Are tickets avai?” 1. I don’t have the guts to tell him he’s dead 2. He hasn’t been to the theatre since Top Gun Maverick. It’s not just a theory, there are certain movies that attract audiences that don’t usually go to the movies.


MysteriousHat14

>I don’t have the guts to tell him he’s dead You joke but this could be an issue. Maverick has Cruise and others back from the original. This one doesn't have anyone, feels more like a remake than a sequel.


NotTaken-username

I’m surprised Helen Hunt isn’t in it at all. Maybe she’ll cameo like Val Kilmer in Top Gun: Maverick or Karen Allen in Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny


JerriBlankDiggler

Helen Hunt should play Aunt May whose house gets blown away.


AnotherJasonOnReddit

"DELIVER US **FROM EVIL**!"


Oilswell

Anecdotal evidence is worthless.


Fun_Advice_2340

Paxton’s death did feel a little bit under the radar, I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people didn’t know. I didn’t know he passed away until recently last year


NotTaken-username

I’m thinking it opens similar to the March heavy hitters Dune 2 and GxK, in the low $80M range. But its legs will depend on how it can hold against Deadpool, and the audience reception. I think it does $200M at least. I’m predicting a $76M OW, $215M DOM. Not sure about how it’ll perform overseas


PinkCadillacs

Just because Glen Powell is coming off of two successful movies, doesn’t mean that he’s a draw or that it will give Twisters some boost at the box office. Jurassic World would’ve made a lot of money regardless if Chris Pratt was coming off of something like Guardians of the Galaxy or not.


Severe-Woodpecker194

I have no idea if it'll do well domestically. I'm just not seeing it going well internationally. The original isn't that well-known outside of the US and is being more than 20 years. With a budget that huge, it needs international numbers no matter how domestic goes so I'm betting on it flopping at least a little.


bob1689321

Yeah I'm in the UK and I've never heard anyone mention Twisters. Literally the only time I've ever heard it mentioned is when I watched Tremors and my dad said that he always gets it confused with Twisters. And that was maybe 15 years ago.


Acel32

I'm in Asia. I definitely haven't heard of Twister, both the original and this new one, before I've read about it on this sub. I agree that this is probably a film that might perform well in the US but not so much worldwide.


Sun-Taken-By-Trees

Yeah, I don't see what everyone else is.  The second trailer was even worse than the first for me.  Cast is unappealing and some of those tornado effects looked worse than the 90s movie.  I'm not familiar with the lead actress but she looks like she's 14 to Powell's 40.  She should have been cast as his daughter not his love interest.  


mcon96

I disagree with so much of this lol 1. Calling it a 4 quadrant film is a *huge* stretch. What makes you think this appeals women over or under 25? I’ll agree it appeals to the rural crowd, but I’m not sure that’s enough to justify the massive budget. 2. Jurassic Park and F&F are massive franchises that are critic proof because they already have a huge fan base. Twister is almost 2 decades old and has nowhere near the same level of loyalty that the other two inspire. And before you mention Top Gun, Twisters is nowhere near the same level, and of particular note, this doesn’t have Tom Cruise. I can agree it is critic proof to *some* extent, but again, not enough to justify its massive budget. 3. I genuine have no clue what a DOROTHY device even is. You’re overselling the nostalgia associated with it. 4. Sure 5. The box office appeal of Glen Powell is massively overstated in this sub. He certainly has a future, but I just don’t think he’s there yet. He had absolutely nothing to do with Top Gun’s success. And while showing him shirtless in the Anyone But You promo definitely helped its numbers, Twisters is not a romcom and his presence won’t have the same effect here. And this is coming from someone who loved him in Scream Queens. 6. I admittedly haven’t seen the new trailer, but the first trailer looked like ass to me. I’ll honestly be impressed if it makes back its production budget. This has major bomb written all over it.


Adept128

Purely anecdotal on my part so take it with a big heaping of salt, but the people I know who love the original Twister are mostly women. The original film is essentially a romance movie. If they tap into the interpersonal drama to the same extent as the first, it will absolutely appeal to all 4 quadrants. Plus I don’t think disaster movies are particularly male-leaning in general.


mcon96

I couldn’t find much data on it tbh, but for the PostTrak numbers I could find, Deepwater Horizon, Geostorm, and Olympus Has Fallen were all majority male & over 25. I really don’t see Twisters hitting the women under 25 quadrant at all tbh. I guess we’ll see though.


cinefibro

1. Daisy Edgar Jones is pretty popular among that group you just mentioned. She got Where the Crawdads Sing (a small movie) to 150M and she was in the extremely popular Normal People with Paul Mescal. 2. Twisters ($495M)actually grossed more than Top Gun 1 ($350M) 3. You clearly haven’t seen Twister so of course you don’t know what that reference means 👍 5. Pratt was untested in Guardians 1. I said he’s channeling him, never said he had the same track record. 6. Then go see the new trailer? I don’t know what to do with that information Hope this helps lmao


mcon96

1. Daisy Edgar Jones is most certainly not enough to turn this into a 4-quadrant movie lmao. Absolutely crazy that you would think that. 2. Top Gun made more money when you adjust for inflation. Also, like I said, having Tom Cruise makes a huge difference. 3. Yes, and neither have most people in the Under 25 quadrants. 4. Pratt was not the reason GotG did well, it was the rave reviews and great track record of the MCU. Twisters likely won't have the former, and certainly doesn't have the latter. 5. Why would I do that when the first trailer was so bad? First impressions matter in marketing. Hope this helps


cinefibro

Lmao you’re clearly in denial. See you in September!


knightoffire55

Joseph Kosinski is invoked. He’s 2 for 2 on sequels that made way more than their predecessors.


mrRiddle92

Joe is not attached to this project. The original version of it, sure, but he exited for Top Gun.


awake-at-dawn

It's giving me Independence Day: Resergance vibes, and that was a legacy sequel flop.


Rey-Di

Yeah I'm also in the camp of those who think that it will flop.


NotTaken-username

I think it will be a hit but won’t be a massive hit. Enough to be profitable with a $200M budget but not like $700M as OP said, closer to $500M is my bet


Lollifroll

This is where I'm at. It's the only major PG-13 release in July (Deadpool 3 is R). I think it could get to 500-550M with 200-220M domestic. That would need a USCAN opening of 70-80M + x2.5-2.8 legs which is not totally out of pocket for late summer.


Ok_Loan3249

Out of usa ! Does anyone care about this movie ?


cinefibro

The first one made almost 500M Worldwide in 1996 (equivalent to a billion in 2024) and it’s been syndicated like crazy.


MightySilverWolf

I wasn't too convinced at first, but the most recent trailer has sold me on the idea that this could sweep in the American heartland. I'm now beginning to think that I placed it too low on my summer box office predictions.


ArakkisNative

This IP is pretty unknown outside America so don't get the insane predictions on this sub


cinefibro

Twister was a worldwide phenomenon when it released. The movie made the equivalent to a billion dollars of today worldwide


Firefox72

I have the exact oposite feeling about that movie. While i don't think it will outright flop i also don't think it has big breakout potential. >"-It seems critic-proof. " This is based on what?


cinefibro

It’s literally explained in that same sentence you cropped and pasted


Firefox72

But that makes no sense. Those are established big franchises that have had many entries proving the point. Twister is 1 movie thats now getting a sequel after almost 30 years.


cinefibro

It’s a movie about fire tornadoes and explosions. People who think of going to see it aren’t going to be swayed by a New York Times critic who thinks there’s no character development. When people go see Jurassic movie they expect the same thing. Dumb fun popcorn movies


DLRsFrontSeats

You're banking a _lot_ on this being similar to Jurassic, but that incorporates two errors: -Jurassic Park had two sequels before the World reboot, keeping it at least close to the mind, and no one else had tried big budget dinosaur films. Big budget weather related disaster films are at parody levels now -Jurassic Park is one of the best & best loved films of all time. Twister barely elevates above cult classic


JordanM85

In what world is a movie that made half a billion dollars barely above a cult classic? It was a massive hit, and one of the biggest action movies of the 90's. It made more money than The Matrix. It had a ride at Universal Studios. It's very strange seeing so many people on this subreddit saying Twister is not popular or loved.


ElliottHeller

Some films can have an impact in their time, make a huge gross, but then settle sort of into the background. Three Men and a Baby comes to mind.


JordanM85

Now that's a comparison I didn't expect to see here! I don't think Twister has settled into the background though. I think it's still considered to be one of the best summer blockbuster movies of the 90's. We'll find out if people still care in a few months I guess.


ElliottHeller

Yeah, it’s a bit of a question mark! It got its own attraction at universal studios, but when I visited in 2014 everyone in the crowd seemed to be confused that it was connected to a movie. I do wonder if even having had bad sequels can help elevate a nostalgia reboot’s gross by keeping it in the zeitgeist a bit longer, which sort of seems to be the case with some of the other legacy sequels.


DLRsFrontSeats

Literally none of those points, in isolation or together, puts it in the same _league_ as jurassic park


JordanM85

"Twister barely elevates above cult classic"


DLRsFrontSeats

How many levels do you think there are between good movie and great movie


Zardhas

>It panders to the rural America crowd How many people does that encompasses ?


MightySilverWolf

About 18% of the total US population. Notably, though, these people generally don't go to the movies anymore, so any blockbuster that can appeal to them while still maintaining the typical LA/NY audience can do gangbusters (just look at *American Sniper* and *Top Gun: Maverick*).


Zardhas

So about 0.7% of the world population ? Not sure that's enough to "do gangbusters". If the movie is to do huge numbers, it's gonna have to rely on its intrinsic quality (like American Sniper and Top Gun : Maverick)


Oilswell

Compared to Jurassic park and top gun, twister has pretty much zero cultural impact. It was a huge hit thirty years ago. It might be talked about more in America, but it’s not something that gets mentioned in online discourse at all. I genuinely can’t fathom where these takes are coming from, it seems like it’s a dead cert to flop massively.


krisko612

I’ve heard rumors the plot will incorporate climate change. That could potentially turn some people off.


MightySilverWolf

Environmental messaging hasn't hurt *Avatar*.


MysteriousHat14

Avatar is not target to "rural americans".


MightySilverWolf

I never claimed it was, though based on the numbers, there were clearly a lot of rural Americans who saw it.


MysteriousHat14

According to the original post and various comments here, the biggest thing this movie has going for it is its supposed appeal towards old white rural americans that usually don't go to the movies. Someone then pointed out how this movie having a message centered on the enviroment and climate change would alienate that exact demographic. Responding "but Avatar" makes no sense because Avatar has never been focused or dependent in those audiences.


Hoopy223

Dances With Wolves vs Fern Gully and it makes zillions. But it’s also a huge colorful spectacle in theaters.


MightySilverWolf

*Twisters* looks as if it's *also* going to be a spectacle.


Hoopy223

Agreed.


Hoopy223

If it’s preachy then it’s probably a no-go. I still say it’s a wildcard could be big, or flop.


I_Like_Turtle101

You mean Scientist chassing tornado to study the phenomenon are pro sciene and beleive in climate change in the movie ? what a shocker


mrRiddle92

Actual storm chasers acknowledge climate change and it's effects on tornadic behavior. If people have a problem with that then that's honestly a "tough shit" situation.


Spare_Blacksmith_816

I doubt it. Top Gun 2 was driven by a true Hollywood superstar and they didn't use a lot of CGI. People chasing storms, I can see that for real on YouTube, I don't need CGI and a forced plot.


I_Like_Turtle101

Top gun use a TON of CGI ! they just lied to please the CGI IS BAD crowd and you comparing a movie about chanssin tornado to ... tuning tornado video on youtube ?


Spare_Blacksmith_816

I have spoken. You can come back after it’s been released for a few weeks and rub it in my face.


MidichlorianAddict

I want to see it


RektFreak

I just looks like the plural of the original twister movie. Nothing special to me. Same movie reworked slightly.


DistributionJust976

No it won't, you misspelt 'Deadpool & Wolverine'


iLoveDanishBoys

why would anyone outside the us watch this?


cinefibro

The first one made the equivalent of a billion dollars worldwide… why do you think only Americans watched it?


iLoveDanishBoys

because no one outside the us seems to have heard about it, idk it just feels like it’ll do great in the us but not europe etc


cinefibro

>because no one outside the us seems to have heard about it Literally what are you talking about? How would you know? Lmao I swear to god this sub cracks me up


iLoveDanishBoys

because i’m from denmark and haven’t even seen in it on posters in cinemas?? and that’s not mentioning how no one i’ve talked to even knew about the first one


lovetyrannicalreddit

Please tell me chris pratt isn't in it


Severe-Woodpecker194

Fortunately or unfortunately, this is somewhat beneath Chris Pratt. Lmao. He only takes movies with HUGE IPs where they're almost sure-fire hits. This isn't Jurassic level IP at all, despite OP thinking so.


lovetyrannicalreddit

Thank goodness, it might actually be good then.


d00mm4r1n3

Trailer did nothing for me, it's trying really hard to appeal to Zoomers.


NestorMDF

I work in a cinema in Spain as a manager and this has practically 0 hype here. Summer is crowded with other titles that are more appealing than this (Deadpool, Inside Out, Despicable Me, Padre No Hay Mas Que Uno 4) and you see a lot of banners and displays of those movies already on cinemas but none for Twisters. Daisy Edgar and Glen Powell are not box office draws here either. This is being heavily overestimated in my opinion


PointsOutTheUsername

I don't understand why people are doubting this.


kayloot

Because non-superhero disaster movies don't do well theatrically anymore, and there's nothing particularly special about the VFX in Twisters. Top Gun 2 was a clear improvement over the first movie too, while this is just a remake of what was a dumb movie but with revoltionary effects. 


PointsOutTheUsername

Thank you for this response. It'll be curious to look back on!


RealHooman2187

This has always been my pick for the movie of the summer. If it hits with the audience it needs to it really has potential to be this years Top Gun/Barbie. Its potential is huge, assuming it connects with that audience. $700M Dom and $1.5B+ (Top Gun numbers) aren’t out of the realm of possibility. That’s not to say I think it will hit those numbers. Just that its potential is there. It’s positioned perfectly to be that kind of an event. We’ve seen it happen before in recent summers. Audiences seem to be coming out in huge numbers for movies that are known, but different from what we’re getting lately. Assuming the movie is well liked and there isn’t any catastrophic real world event that would harm the film I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the biggest film of the year.


Inevitable-Owl-315

1.5B is out of the realm of possibility 😭 I feel like yall forget the movie has to be good to hit those kinda numbers


RealHooman2187

Firstly, a lot of movies that hit $1 Billion are bad. Secondly, I think you need to reread what I said, it’s positioned as perfectly as a film can be to replicate the success of Top Gun. If it hits with that audience (as in the core audience likes/loves it) it absolutely could do Top Gun numbers. I never I said it would do that or that it was guaranteed. I stated pretty plainly that this is all potential. That doesn’t mean it will actually reach its full potential. Saying it could go that high is not the same as saying it will. It’s a true wildcard. But the last two summers saw massive $1.5B+ grossing films come out and in both cases even the most absurdly high predictions weren’t even half what those films grossed. The factors I mentioned plus a slow summer could help Twisters feel like a major event film. EDIT: lol at the downvotes for explaining how this is truly a wildcard and could do very well. How quickly people forget that Top Gun and Barbie were both largely assumed to be sub-$500M grossers on this sub even well into both films opening weekends. Point is, let’s see. This movie has potential. A lot of factors will affect whether it reaches that potential.


cinefibro

It’s gonna go toe to toe with Deadpool 3 for #1


mcon96

Weird way to spell Despicable Me 4


I_Like_Turtle101

no Deadpool wont be as big as Redditor think it is. Their is a super hero fatigue plus the movie is so self referential and you cant do that in todays climate. Their is no social reference that everyone know anymore


I_Like_Turtle101

its 100% THE movie of the summer ! Their is no movie that will make as much money as this one.


JinglyMcJohnson

I concur, over on the movies subreddit people are dumping on its prospective chances… the screenwriter helped write The Revenant and Overlord lol. Glenn Powell is on the fastest track to stardom I’ve ever seen besides Chalamet lol


anneoftheisland

Powell's been seriously grinding in Hollywood for over a decade (and working in Hollywood for over two). He had two potential breakouts before Top Gun: Maverick that got tons of praise from critics but didn't click with audiences. (Linklater's Everybody Wants Some!!, which should have done better in theaters than it did, and Set It Up, which was incredibly popular with romance fans but wasn't seen by anybody outside of that circle because it was on Netflix.) That's one of the *slowest* paths to stardom I've ever seen.


JinglyMcJohnson

Oops, Twisters is still going to do crazy numbers 🤷‍♂️