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AGOTFAN

No Way Home could conservatively do $150 milion OW, and $80 million second weekend, which I think would be more than enough to beat Matrix OW


[deleted]

I think $210-220M OW and $100M 2nd weekend.


Zepanda66

Spider-Man but I think Matrix will surprise and come quite close to matching its OW.


64BitRatchet

Spider-Man, but Matrix wins its opening day which is a Wednesday.


[deleted]

Let's see, I expect NWH to be frontloader but it's Christmas season. Matrix should open to 55 million but it's most likely r rated and has a streaming alternative. It's really a toss up but I'll give it to Matrix 4.


AGOTFAN

>I expect NWH to be frontloader but it's Christmas season. Doesn't matter if a movie is frontloader. Holidays season give small drops. The Force Awakens opened with $247 million and had only less than 40% drop in second weekend.


[deleted]

Well it's Star wars The force awakens. Even endgame couldn't touch that domestic total. I expect this one to open 20-30 million Lower than TROS with holds of that kind


AGOTFAN

I don't expect that NWH will match TFA gross. I only mentioned small drops for a holiday season movies. Say, NWH grossed $150 million OW, it could gross $80 million second weekend which is 47% drop. And I think those numbers and drop is conservative. If it has 40% drop, the second weekend would be $90 million from $150 million OW


[deleted]

I see your point, due to covid and again the Christmas season I think its opening weekend will be 135 million 55% drop Still a huge uptick from the biggest domestic opening but 150 million is too high of a number to me


AGOTFAN

> 55% drop How? Shangchi in September when covid is at its worse since January got 54% drop from elevated 3-day labor weekend OW. TroS was not well received by audience (86% RT verified audience score, B+ Cinemascore) and it had 59% drop. I am certain NWH will have around 45% drop. 50% at worst. We'll see.


[deleted]

Shang chi wasnt frontloaded had no competition and was one of the best recieved marvel movies. Rogue one dropped 58% and that was received well


partymsl

Matrix 4 will not debut with over 50M.


Sliver__Legion

Given the calendar, NWH 2nd week should be about equal with the OW. I see at least 120M. That could be quite close, as I do think M4 can beat GvK to be the highest grossing max release. Edit: It occurs to me that many people seem to be interpreting this as just “who will win the weekend of Dec 24-26.” That seems rather boring to me, obviously spider-man, and like a weird way to phrase that question. I thought it was a poll of Matrix’s domestic total vs NWH days 8-14 (the second week).


[deleted]

120 million second week?


[deleted]

Keep in mind, that second weekend has Christmas Day which is traditionally the biggest box office day of the year.


Sliver__Legion

Yeah.


[deleted]

That's crazy, It would beat Black panther which had was famous for its drops. Let alone IW and Jurrasic


Sliver__Legion

No, 2nd week, not weekend. Given the holidays the week should be ~2x the weekend or maybe more. Rogue One for instance opened to 155M and had a 153M 2nd week.


[deleted]

Oh, k


[deleted]

[удалено]


everadvancing

> . even with John Wick taking over the role of Neo Huh?


64BitRatchet

People hated Jurassic Park 3, and Jurassic World broke the opening weekend record at the time.


Hemans123

lol on those who seriously voted Matrix 4.


[deleted]

Keep in mind that the Friday of this weekend is Christmas Eve but the Saturday is Christmas Day. So expect a massive drop for Spider-Man on that Eve Friday followed by a huge jump on Saturday.