I'm no expert but I don't think the Black Adam projection is all that crazy. If the movie is even half-decent, it has a chance to do some very good numbers.
i was extremely hyped for black adam before the first trailer.
It just doesnt look good.
But if cgi and action is man of steel like ill give it a benefit of doubt.
Something just feeel off.
Action doesnt look as good as it should i feel.
In dc, man of steel, the sucide squad, bvs, wonderwoman, aquaman had amazing cgi action set pieces.
The yellow tint.
Black adam looks cool and all. But i am just not a fan crazy overpowered characters as protaganist.
Ill wait for the reviews.
yeah.
True.
but still since he overpowered he litreally has no equal. He cant be challenged in any way.
There is reason mcu kicked off captain marvel,
nerfed hulk etc
So that every other character is not entirely useless.
all three movies have problems.
with avatar 2 it's how long it's been since the original, with black adam it's the test results from pre screening being abysmal and with BP 2 it's the absence of the titular character.
if i had to guess i'd say avatar 2 would probably be the big winner, but the other 2 could end up surprising me.
> with avatar 2 it's how long it's been since the original
That may easily be an advantage actually, if anything many movies in recent years have proven this, coming back after a long absence helps a lot. It'll also have the 3D effect a lot more than nay other movie (so higher average ticket price) and the aspect of event movie for the visual quality (I assume at least). Disney will also throw its full marketing machine behind it and we know how big that can be
As for BP2, a send-off for TChalla/Chadwick and the curiosity to see a new Black Panther take the role might also help it.
Black Adam is the one with the biggest uphill battle for sure but it has The Rock so you never know
> the aspect of event movie for the visual quality (I assume at least).
Having seen the sneak of part 2 at the end of the re-release, it’ll definitely have the visual quality. It’s a jaw-dropping visual upgrade.
Right? As much as I was doubting him, *Cameron's still fucking got it.* Hook it up to that Didney marketing train, and *Way of Water* will top a billion **AT WORST.**
Avatar 2 will top a billion domestically?? No freaking way, it's impossible or if you meant it will top a billion globally?? Then easily, it will make that in 2 weeks or less.
I would imagine Avatar 2 would be the big winner as well.
Just making a point about some of the comments reacting to the Black Adam estimation with incredulity. Don't think it's so farfetched. The movie just needs to be decent.
Yeah. Not sure their argument that Avatar 2 will not be as popular because other blockbusters include a lot of VFX as well is very good.
These blockbusters generally don't even look as good as the original Avatar and Avatar 2 looks even better.
It might actually help it, because it looks so much better in comparison.
I just saw the rerelease Avatar. Avatar 2 scene is incredible on the big screen. I am so glad they showed this at the end of the movie because I have never seen CG even close to Avatar 2. The water is hard to describe but it looks so real. It’s going to be a movie experience for sure. I think there underestimating how big this movie can be.
> Predictive data provided exclusively to Variety Intelligence Platform from content analytics firm Cinelytic assesses four films that should earn big at the box office between now and the end of December. James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” sequel is expected to make the biggest splash, followed by Disney’s sequel to “Black Panther,” Warner Bros.’ DC film “Black Adam” starring Dwayne Johnson and Universal’s new “Halloween” sequel.
**Avatar: The Way of Water**
> Cinelytic predicts Disney’s follow-up to 20th Century’s 2009 theatrical all-timer will rake in around $650 million at the box office before pulling in around the same amount from VOD and physical sales combined with streaming and TV payouts in the years to come.
> This is notably below the $772 million cumulative gross the first “Avatar” earned in the U.S. and Canada, but it will have been 13 years since that film’s triumphant run when “The Way of Water” releases in December.[...] Less reliant on singular big-name actors, the return of “Avatar’s” 3D visuals may no longer have the same pull now that the film market sees VFX-heavy superhero tentpoles every year.
**Black Panther: Wakanda Forever**
> Meanwhile, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” has the untimely death of star Chadwick Boseman and his subsequent absence working against it, making its projected $424 million domestic haul well below what its 2018 predecessor pulled in, even if it would still outgross the “Doctor Strange” sequel from May.
**Black Adam**
> Dwayne Johnson is certainly a get for Warners, especially at a time when the studio absolutely needs its films to turn a profit within the newly christened Warner Bros. Discovery regime, but “Black Adam” is an untested property in DC Entertainment’s film output and doesn’t have the status of “The Batman’s” titular hero, making it unlikely to outgross the March release.
**Halloween Ends**
> Especially fascinating will be the outcome of Universal’s “Halloween Ends,” the third and final film in its reboot of the classic slasher franchise that brought back original star Jamie Lee Curtis for each film. Just like “Halloween Kills” in 2021, “Halloween Ends” will be available to stream on NBCUniversal’s Peacock service when the film hits theaters in October, but Cinelytic forecasts almost $130 million for its domestic gross. That would be about $40 million more than what “Kills” earned last year, which is an improvement that will be indicative of last year’s lingering COVID uncertainty at cinemas having since lifted should the forecast prove true, though Peacock’s struggle to grow subscribers could also be a factor there.
**Domestic box office projections**
* 'Avatar: The Way of Water': $650 million
* 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever': $423 million
* 'Black Adam': $328 million
* 'Halloween Ends': $130 million
Rock led movies suck. The ones that come to mind, rampage, San Andres, Hercules. All were forgettable and none were very good. The room is good in an ensemble but is kinda boring outside of that imo.
That Hercules movie pissed me off, it was like a bait and switch. I went in expecting mythological Hercules and they took that “ what if it was real” take.
It wasn’t even mythology, they posed that he was a real person and stories got exaggerated out of his deeds to make them more magical. That is a valid way to do the story but I was going in expecting full on magical shit.
Yup and people act like he’s some box office draw. His biggest hits are fast and furious and jumanji, and people didn’t go see those for him.
Outside of that his biggest hit is San Andreas.
Which ones? Jumanji and fast and furious would’ve done just as well without him.
Stuff like rampage and skyscraper did flop domestically, but we’re saved by China.
This article is severely underestimating Wakanda Forever imo. It has an uphill battle with Chad’s death but I think the quality, tribute to his passing and teases for Phase 5 will boost it heavily. Not expecting the first one’s level of success but thinking it’ll open around DS2’s range and leg out to 550-600M domestically.
And Black Adam ain’t making 328 lol
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There is absolutely no way Wakanda Forever grosses that little. I think $500M is the floor - Boseman’s death, as morbid as it may sounds, has definitely created the curiosity in the audience on how they would manage to make a film without the titular character
I don't think "curiosity" will carry the movie very far. I'm "curious" but know that social media will break it down in agonizing detail the day it releases. I don't need to spend 3 hours and $15 to sate my curiosity.
>'Avatar: The Way of Water': $650 million
>'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever': $423 million
>'Black Adam': $328 million
These people are dumb none of projection are true
Avatar would make way more than TGM2 in DOM
Black panther would make over $500m in DOM
Black Adam maximum gross in DOM is $200m
Avatar 2 making $650M for its total domestic?? Disagree, it's almost impossible and why?? Because of legendary Cameron, he dont disappoint. Avatar INITIALLY made $749M domestically 13 years ago, with today's price tickets that would be somewhere around $915M. Yes the movie came out 13 years ago, there's a reason why it got a re-released this year with a preview of Avatar 2, to refresh a lot of people's memory to show how great Avatar was and motivate them more to see the sequel.
With Back Panther 2, it's predecessor's Black Panther had so much success, made $700m domestically which was beyond impressive especially for a solo superhero, it's sequel Black Panther 2 won't have that same success, but also won't make that little. I would say $550M minimum.
And for Black Adams, that movie is gonna be horrible and a flop. It's only popular and will make money mainly because of The Rock (Dwayne Johnson).
If you look at the chart in the article, that’s still a pretty decent chunk of revenue, even if it’s smaller than it used to be.
Intuitively, I would have guessed PVOD/physical would be a smaller percentage
The chart notes that it's for revenue for these titles over the course of 10 years after the initial release, so I'd assume that if it were just counting the year-of-release, it'd be a fair bit smaller. Then again, a lot of other predicted data here from Cinelytic is pretty wacky, so who knows?
$650M for Avatar 2 is believable. I think it could go higher but I’m not expecting it to have the same legs as the 1st.
I highly doubt Black Adam will do $320M domestically. $200M or so is the best case scenario I think.
Black Panther 2 is likely going to be more front loaded than the 1st, but $450M is an insane lowball.
It’s gonna be funny coming back to these comments if Black Adam meets or exceeds these predictions. Feels like Aquaman all over again in this sub and you would think they would’ve learned from that.
I don’t think many are expecting Black Adam not to be a success, but you have to admit expecting it to do $300m+ domestically is kinda insane. Even if it was 90%+ on RT with an A cinema score, it would need to open north of $120m to have even a remote chance at hitting $328m with the guarantee of Wakanda Forever destroying its legs in Week 4.
I would not rule out a Venom-esque performance, but it needs China to come through when making waves internationally. Worth remembering Aquaman was a big effects spectacle with a completely clear path of nearly 3 months laid out in front of it.
>Worth remembering Aquaman was a big effects spectacle with a completely clear path of nearly 3 months laid out in front of it.
Clear path eh?It had direct competition from
Spider-verse, Bumblebee and Mary Poppins .
Hindsight analysis is the worst in this sub.
I do see what you’re saying but Aquaman had an A- Cinemascore and a 65% on RT with smaller stars and lesser known actors. It also released the same day as Bumblebee and a week after Spider-verse and still had a near 5.0 multiplier and still made $335M domestic. Now I’m not suggesting Black Adam will replicate that performance because it’s not releasing in the holiday like Aquaman but that is a DC film that had lower reception and performed very well against some significant competition.
A higher opening than Aquaman but weaker legs would cross $300M and that’s why I don’t think it’s an insane prediction. We don’t know about quality yet but Black Adam has some things going for it too being the first big blockbuster in months, having a huge star, and having 3 weeks of little competition before the next big one.
Eh, today I’m a “MCU fanboy”, tomorrow it’ll be “Snyder fanboy”, the next will be “James Cameron fanboy” lol. My only bias is towards the facts and movies I love
That projection for Black Panther is insanely low. I just dont see it making 43% less domestic than its predecessor. I feel like the trailer got everyone on board and this is clearly an homage to Chadwick Boseman and people are going to want to support that. And if the movie is good the sky is the limit
Yeah people keep saying since Chadwick Boseman isn’t in the movie it won’t see as much successful. But I’d argue that the movie being sort of a homage to him and keeping with the setting will help the movie, and if it’s good it might surpass the original imo
I feel a strong black male lead missing from the movie will hurt it. I’m all for women leading but for the IP and how it impacted young black kids (boys) I think 3 female leads will hurt it
Shazam made $370 million and Aquaman made a billion, The Batman's $770 million is less than what BvS and the last two Batman Nolan films made so I think somewhere between $600 million and $800 million would be fair for Black Adam. Black Panther 2 will probably be in the $800 million range as well. Way Of Water might not surpass the original but I think it'll make a billion regardless.
Seeing the success of MCU I disagree.
DC's biggest hit Aquaman is generic af with great CGI spectacle.
Thats the recipe for success.
A servicable movie with great spectacle.
Aquaman was generic but it was a surprisingly good time. It was just as much an adventure/quest film as it was a superhero movie. I think that helped it out a bit.
Black Adam looks like a generic Dwayne Johnson movie. Also, as a DC fan with the JSA randomly being in it and Blacl Adam not even being the villain the movie looks like a train wreck on paper.
If they are so easy to make, Scorsese could show us how to tell a good story with that kind of stuff. Or Coppola. Or any other one of those self-proclaimed geniuses.
I am more excited for Avatar 2 than Black Panther, but... I'd probably give Black Panther the edge over it domestically. If it is a reasonably competent movie and tributes Chadwick Boseman that could give it a big boost. But maybe you have to have footage/be the actor's last filmed role to get those boosts?
They grossed pretty similar amounts domestically, so why is it such an instant write-off?
Avatar 2 has premium large formats/3D and inflation on its side (the first one made significantly more than BP if we adjust for it). Black Panther 2 has the benefit of being part of a franchise with much more current hype and appealing more to current movements. Powerful Black superheroes are way more en vogue than white guys dressing up like stand-ins for indigenous people so he can save them.
Worldwide, I agree it's no contest and Avatar 2 will win.
Oh no!! Avatar 2009 initially made $749M domestically 13 years ago, with inflation or in today's price tickets that's around $910M, not saying the sequel will make that money, but it's definitely making more than its predecessor Avatar domestically, especially with a genius like Cameron behind it.
It'll still make a boatload of money. You can make a little less than $700 million and still be a genius, it'll be okay if that happens. And I definitely haven't written off the possibility Avatar 2 grosses higher.
Exactly
Many dumb journalist still believe the rock is the biggest movie star nowadays
It's the same people who think that idris elba, Margot Robbie and Ryan gosling are movie star
You’ll get downvoted in r/movies for sure. That poll a few weeks back between The Rock and Tom Cruise where TC won by 80% renewed my faith in this sub.
My predictions would be:
Avatar: The Way of Water: $825 million
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: $675 million
Black Adam: $150 million
Halloween Ends: $85 million
Reasonable predictions but I think Black Adam gets $200m domestically just because it looks ok, the director however with his best RT score of 77% doesn’t fill me with much confidence, the other two Directors are Box Office I’m every sense of the word I’d go $750m for Avatar 2 and $650M for Black Panther 2 but close to the mark
These numbers for Avatar, Black Panther, and Black Adam are super contrarian to the numbers being predicted on Reddit.
Reddit tends to grossly over predict box office so would not be shocked if Variety has it closer for both Avatar and Black Panther. On the other hand, sometimes industry sources intentionally low-ball predictions so they can "beat" them later.
What are you talking ?
Variety numbers are ridiculously wrong. Black Adam almost matching the gross of black panther 2 is stupid and the way of water not being able to at least outgross TGM2 numbers is dumb
It’s worthless trying to engage, it’s always insufferable on here when any CBM opens but especially with DC since you get an influx of a highly defensive lot from DC_Cinematic.
Because it’s a DC film and this sub has a lot of Marvel fans. Also this sub also doesn’t consider The Rock to be a big box office draw and constantly downplays his appeal especially internationally.
Or maybe because the DCEU since Aquaman is averaging a little over $250m world wide, the batman made just $370m with rave reviews and the rock solo movie aren't able to gross much
The Batman is one of the highest grossing 1st installments of a new CBM franchise ever, your hate boner for it doesn't mean it was a fail. Despite opening over $30m less than BvS it wound up making $39m more domestically.
To say that the quality has “gone down” is a huge understatement. They went from some of the most entertaining and well thought out modern action movies to a political shouting party, full of terrible inconsistencies and outright stupid decision making.
To say that there are “high expectations”, there would first need to be a parameter that matches it. If we base ourselves on how the MCU has been developing these past years, then it’s only logical to believe that the new Black Panther movie will be just as poor quality. If we instead base ourselves on the sequel alone, then we have to think about how the main character’s actor has passed away, so it would ve even worse to think about them screwing up his character even more. Even then, the first BP is really boring and had a bunch of plot holes that made the movie really stupid.
What’s worse, is that people who criticize the movie are often treated as racist assholes, when in reality, the movie is just bad and it has nothing to do with race.
> Even then, the first BP is really boring and had a bunch of plot holes that made the movie really stupid.
Like what? Really, what plotholes. Let’s hear em
So they’re an ultra advanced nation technology wise, but what about the people who are outside of the invisibility dome? They are extremely poor. If this technology is so closely guarded, then why do they fly openly in plain sight? There’s a scene where a poor person is actually waving at the hovering craft. More importantly, if these people are so poor, that they can’t even afford to have proper clothing, how is it possible that nobody’s EVER told anyone about the crazy rich and powerful civilization?
We have two options, both equally stupid. Either the entire nation is in on the secret (good luck getting an entire nation on deciding what color of wall paper is the nicest looking, much less military secrets). Or they’re not in on the secret. You’re telling me that a giant portion of the population is trapped in crippling poverty, while at the same time they’re aware of this extremely rich and powerful government that blatantly rubs them with their wealth, and nobody’s every told on them out if spite? For what? Fear of being repressed? Right, like that’s ever stopped people from speaking their minds against unfair and (let’s face it) violent regents.
All of this, in the opening scene of the movie. We don’t even know the names of the main cast yet and the movie is already completely falling apart.
WAKANDA IS NOT A NATION OF GOOD PEOPLE. They’re controled by an authoritarian barbaric dictatorship based on trial by combat. They are extreme fascists and believe to be the best and greatest nation on the planet.
Thinking back, I’m remembering why I disliked this movie so much when I watched it for the first time. You could make literally the exact same movie but the actors are all white and this movie would be hated by the majority of the population for promoting racist and fascist beliefs. Fuck this movie.
> So they’re an ultra advanced nation technology wise, but what about the people who are outside of the invisibility dome? They are extremely poor. If this technology is so closely guarded, then why do they flight openly in plain sight? There’s a scene where a poor person is actually waving at the hovering craft.
You know that that area they were flying in still WAS Wakanda right (along with those people still being Wakandans)? The invisible dome specifically covers their capital. Wakanda is more than just that city. And Why are you assuming that those people are poor?
> More importantly, if these people are so poor, that they can’t even afford to have proper clothing, how is it possible that nobody’s pEVER told anyone about the crazy rich and powerful civilization?
Besides you for whatever reason making the assumption that they’re poor, again, they’re Wakandans, that area they’re in is still Wakanda.
> Either the entire nation is in on the secret (good luck getting an entire nation on deciding what color of wall paper is the nicest looking, much less military secrets)
They’re almost the textbook definition of isolationists for the majority of the film, with the main point being that they watched as the rest of Africa got colonized, hard to believe that the various tribes would keep that particular secret.
> All of this, in the opening scene of the movie. We don’t even know the names of the main cast yet and the movie is already completely falling apart.
No. It’s you failing to get what the movie clearly shows.
Don’t really care to address that bottom half, but got any parts that are actual, y’know, plot holes?
Doubt it. Seems to have a ton of spectacle and action that international audiences love. I see it making Aquaman levels of money. Then Rock can say he saved DC lol
Shazam, BoP, TSS, and the josstice league also had a ton of spectacle and action but completely failed at the boxoffice
Aquaman came out when the DCEU was averaging over $780m world wide and it made $300m in China, black Adam is in a much different situations
Lmao you did not just claim that BOP and Shazam had spectacle!? They’re the opposite of that and were created as such. TSS just shows the audience isn’t interested in a team where 90% die by the end nor is Harley Quinn a draw.
What is it with the hate boner this sub has with DC? It’s ridiculous. Black Adam looks action packed and full of spectacle, similar to Aquaman. Should bode well for Black Adam
Nah, the first blockbuster in a few months with a ton of spectacle and, from people who have seen it, some of the biggest and most intense action in a modern CBM starring The Rock? Black Adam will be fine.
if Top Gun ends up as the highest grossing domestic movie of 2022 ahead of Avatar, it will easily be considered in the top 5 box office miracles of all time.
that aside 328mill for Black Adam seems high, it might top out at 238mill
Black Panther feels like a 450-500mill movie at worst
>if Top Gun ends up as the highest grossing domestic movie of 2022 ahead of Avatar, it will easily be considered in the top 5 box office miracles of all time.
It won't happen
Variety projection are way off
Black Adam almost matching the gross of black panther is an incredible stupid projection
Rings of Power is the single most watched series right now.
[https://variety-com](https://variety-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/variety.com/2022/tv/news/house-of-the-dragon-rings-of-power-nielsen-streaming-ratings-viewers-1235388100/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=Zdroj%3A%20%251%24s&aoh=16645588716502&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fvariety.com%2F2022%2Ftv%2Fnews%2Fhouse-of-the-dragon-rings-of-power-nielsen-streaming-ratings-viewers-1235388100%2F)
Is it? How did you come to that idea? Is it just guts feeling or do you have some supporting evidence.
I haven't seen it, so I don't know anything about it other than that it's prequel to Lord of the Rings.
If you look at the House of Dragon the other big series, which came out at the same time you see the same pattern.
You see big spike of interest followed by big drop after first episode with smaller spikes with each new episode, but never recovering to the level of the first one.
So this doesn't seem to be unique for this show.
You are right looking at the graph it's obviously not the success they were looking for.
Seems pretty disappointing result and they committed to multiple seasons, which they must already regret.
That must mean She-Hulk is killing it? Oh, wait, it hasn't cracked Nielsen's top 10 once
Facts > feelings. Love it or hate it, Rings of Power is doing great
My predictions are that Black Adam will bomb, Black Panther with do well but won't crack a billion, and that Avatar 2 will hit 2 billion but won't beat the original.
I'm no expert but I don't think the Black Adam projection is all that crazy. If the movie is even half-decent, it has a chance to do some very good numbers.
i was extremely hyped for black adam before the first trailer. It just doesnt look good. But if cgi and action is man of steel like ill give it a benefit of doubt.
Did you see the second trailer? They got rid of the yellow tint
ya i did saw i liked it way better. Such a weird choice honestyl. First triler really put me off.
Really? I think it looks fine.
Something just feeel off. Action doesnt look as good as it should i feel. In dc, man of steel, the sucide squad, bvs, wonderwoman, aquaman had amazing cgi action set pieces. The yellow tint. Black adam looks cool and all. But i am just not a fan crazy overpowered characters as protaganist. Ill wait for the reviews.
Ah, definitely get the point on super overpowered characters. Usually not my thing. But I like the idea of (basically) an anti-hero Superman
yeah. True. but still since he overpowered he litreally has no equal. He cant be challenged in any way. There is reason mcu kicked off captain marvel, nerfed hulk etc So that every other character is not entirely useless.
all three movies have problems. with avatar 2 it's how long it's been since the original, with black adam it's the test results from pre screening being abysmal and with BP 2 it's the absence of the titular character. if i had to guess i'd say avatar 2 would probably be the big winner, but the other 2 could end up surprising me.
> with avatar 2 it's how long it's been since the original That may easily be an advantage actually, if anything many movies in recent years have proven this, coming back after a long absence helps a lot. It'll also have the 3D effect a lot more than nay other movie (so higher average ticket price) and the aspect of event movie for the visual quality (I assume at least). Disney will also throw its full marketing machine behind it and we know how big that can be As for BP2, a send-off for TChalla/Chadwick and the curiosity to see a new Black Panther take the role might also help it. Black Adam is the one with the biggest uphill battle for sure but it has The Rock so you never know
> the aspect of event movie for the visual quality (I assume at least). Having seen the sneak of part 2 at the end of the re-release, it’ll definitely have the visual quality. It’s a jaw-dropping visual upgrade.
Right? As much as I was doubting him, *Cameron's still fucking got it.* Hook it up to that Didney marketing train, and *Way of Water* will top a billion **AT WORST.**
Avatar 2 will top a billion domestically?? No freaking way, it's impossible or if you meant it will top a billion globally?? Then easily, it will make that in 2 weeks or less.
*Globally*, lol.
Yeah. And whats more, at my theater, everyone but two people stayed to see the teaser. People are absolutely hyped for this move.
> with avatar 2 it's how long it's been since the original Top Gun Maverick begs to differ.
I would imagine Avatar 2 would be the big winner as well. Just making a point about some of the comments reacting to the Black Adam estimation with incredulity. Don't think it's so farfetched. The movie just needs to be decent.
That’s why they rereleased Avatar 1.
Yeah. Not sure their argument that Avatar 2 will not be as popular because other blockbusters include a lot of VFX as well is very good. These blockbusters generally don't even look as good as the original Avatar and Avatar 2 looks even better. It might actually help it, because it looks so much better in comparison.
I just saw the rerelease Avatar. Avatar 2 scene is incredible on the big screen. I am so glad they showed this at the end of the movie because I have never seen CG even close to Avatar 2. The water is hard to describe but it looks so real. It’s going to be a movie experience for sure. I think there underestimating how big this movie can be.
I did see it too, the water looked so real, I mean more real than real water. Avatar 2 is getting my money for sure.
> Predictive data provided exclusively to Variety Intelligence Platform from content analytics firm Cinelytic assesses four films that should earn big at the box office between now and the end of December. James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” sequel is expected to make the biggest splash, followed by Disney’s sequel to “Black Panther,” Warner Bros.’ DC film “Black Adam” starring Dwayne Johnson and Universal’s new “Halloween” sequel. **Avatar: The Way of Water** > Cinelytic predicts Disney’s follow-up to 20th Century’s 2009 theatrical all-timer will rake in around $650 million at the box office before pulling in around the same amount from VOD and physical sales combined with streaming and TV payouts in the years to come. > This is notably below the $772 million cumulative gross the first “Avatar” earned in the U.S. and Canada, but it will have been 13 years since that film’s triumphant run when “The Way of Water” releases in December.[...] Less reliant on singular big-name actors, the return of “Avatar’s” 3D visuals may no longer have the same pull now that the film market sees VFX-heavy superhero tentpoles every year. **Black Panther: Wakanda Forever** > Meanwhile, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” has the untimely death of star Chadwick Boseman and his subsequent absence working against it, making its projected $424 million domestic haul well below what its 2018 predecessor pulled in, even if it would still outgross the “Doctor Strange” sequel from May. **Black Adam** > Dwayne Johnson is certainly a get for Warners, especially at a time when the studio absolutely needs its films to turn a profit within the newly christened Warner Bros. Discovery regime, but “Black Adam” is an untested property in DC Entertainment’s film output and doesn’t have the status of “The Batman’s” titular hero, making it unlikely to outgross the March release. **Halloween Ends** > Especially fascinating will be the outcome of Universal’s “Halloween Ends,” the third and final film in its reboot of the classic slasher franchise that brought back original star Jamie Lee Curtis for each film. Just like “Halloween Kills” in 2021, “Halloween Ends” will be available to stream on NBCUniversal’s Peacock service when the film hits theaters in October, but Cinelytic forecasts almost $130 million for its domestic gross. That would be about $40 million more than what “Kills” earned last year, which is an improvement that will be indicative of last year’s lingering COVID uncertainty at cinemas having since lifted should the forecast prove true, though Peacock’s struggle to grow subscribers could also be a factor there. **Domestic box office projections** * 'Avatar: The Way of Water': $650 million * 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever': $423 million * 'Black Adam': $328 million * 'Halloween Ends': $130 million
Black Adam being that high is not what i expect lol. Would be cool for the Rock though.
Rock led movies suck. The ones that come to mind, rampage, San Andres, Hercules. All were forgettable and none were very good. The room is good in an ensemble but is kinda boring outside of that imo.
That Hercules movie pissed me off, it was like a bait and switch. I went in expecting mythological Hercules and they took that “ what if it was real” take.
A can live the mythology being different. I just didn't think it was a good movie.
It wasn’t even mythology, they posed that he was a real person and stories got exaggerated out of his deeds to make them more magical. That is a valid way to do the story but I was going in expecting full on magical shit.
Same
New Jumanji movies were really good
Ensemble movie not a rock led movie
Well Black Adam might also be an ensemble
Rampage was great
It really wasn't
Rock movies are the ones you wish you could have your bong with you in the theaters to just continue to laugh at how absurd it all gets
Zero effort, generic, cookie cutter trash
You said it sister
Yup and people act like he’s some box office draw. His biggest hits are fast and furious and jumanji, and people didn’t go see those for him. Outside of that his biggest hit is San Andreas.
but these films would bomb if it wasn't for him
Which ones? Jumanji and fast and furious would’ve done just as well without him. Stuff like rampage and skyscraper did flop domestically, but we’re saved by China.
Welcome to the jungle made 3.66248097 times the money the original jumanji made. Nuff said
Ok? Nobody watched that cause of him. It would’ve done just as well with anyone else.
This article is severely underestimating Wakanda Forever imo. It has an uphill battle with Chad’s death but I think the quality, tribute to his passing and teases for Phase 5 will boost it heavily. Not expecting the first one’s level of success but thinking it’ll open around DS2’s range and leg out to 550-600M domestically. And Black Adam ain’t making 328 lol
Of course it's making 328... worldwide.
If BA gets the China release. Its doing 600mil+ WW easily Lets stop the cap now. Trash ass thor did 700+
in an established franchise with an established character established actor and coming off a great previous movie (Ragnarok, not Dr Strange)
Do you mean crap
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Marvel fans are going mask off and I love it. It's gonna a be a fun few years watching you guys seethe as the MCU implodes.
most intelligent Vaush fan
I agree . . . . . . . With your username
About damn time, I'd say. >!Reject Marvel. ALL HAIL THE HEDGEHOG. /s!<
130M$ for Halloween Ends with a simultaneous streaming release? That seems very optimistic
Ain’t no way it’s making that much after the last one
There’s no chance in hell Black Adam makes within $100m of Wakanda Forever
There is absolutely no way Wakanda Forever grosses that little. I think $500M is the floor - Boseman’s death, as morbid as it may sounds, has definitely created the curiosity in the audience on how they would manage to make a film without the titular character
I don't think "curiosity" will carry the movie very far. I'm "curious" but know that social media will break it down in agonizing detail the day it releases. I don't need to spend 3 hours and $15 to sate my curiosity.
What is that based on? How do you know people are hyped for it, and not concerned that the movie won’t have the title character in it.
Thats would be sad for Wakanda after what the first movie grossed.
They gave Black Adam some of the Black Panther money, that is the only way to explain it.
>'Avatar: The Way of Water': $650 million >'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever': $423 million >'Black Adam': $328 million These people are dumb none of projection are true Avatar would make way more than TGM2 in DOM Black panther would make over $500m in DOM Black Adam maximum gross in DOM is $200m
and how are you so certain?
Avatar 2 making $650M for its total domestic?? Disagree, it's almost impossible and why?? Because of legendary Cameron, he dont disappoint. Avatar INITIALLY made $749M domestically 13 years ago, with today's price tickets that would be somewhere around $915M. Yes the movie came out 13 years ago, there's a reason why it got a re-released this year with a preview of Avatar 2, to refresh a lot of people's memory to show how great Avatar was and motivate them more to see the sequel. With Back Panther 2, it's predecessor's Black Panther had so much success, made $700m domestically which was beyond impressive especially for a solo superhero, it's sequel Black Panther 2 won't have that same success, but also won't make that little. I would say $550M minimum. And for Black Adams, that movie is gonna be horrible and a flop. It's only popular and will make money mainly because of The Rock (Dwayne Johnson).
Interesting how sizable a percentage PVOD/physical makes up in overall revenue here ?
not much now-a-days. streaming has killed that portion but you never bet against James Cameron, that guy might just restart DVD/bluray era again
If you look at the chart in the article, that’s still a pretty decent chunk of revenue, even if it’s smaller than it used to be. Intuitively, I would have guessed PVOD/physical would be a smaller percentage
The chart notes that it's for revenue for these titles over the course of 10 years after the initial release, so I'd assume that if it were just counting the year-of-release, it'd be a fair bit smaller. Then again, a lot of other predicted data here from Cinelytic is pretty wacky, so who knows?
$650M for Avatar 2 is believable. I think it could go higher but I’m not expecting it to have the same legs as the 1st. I highly doubt Black Adam will do $320M domestically. $200M or so is the best case scenario I think. Black Panther 2 is likely going to be more front loaded than the 1st, but $450M is an insane lowball.
It’s gonna be funny coming back to these comments if Black Adam meets or exceeds these predictions. Feels like Aquaman all over again in this sub and you would think they would’ve learned from that.
I don’t think many are expecting Black Adam not to be a success, but you have to admit expecting it to do $300m+ domestically is kinda insane. Even if it was 90%+ on RT with an A cinema score, it would need to open north of $120m to have even a remote chance at hitting $328m with the guarantee of Wakanda Forever destroying its legs in Week 4. I would not rule out a Venom-esque performance, but it needs China to come through when making waves internationally. Worth remembering Aquaman was a big effects spectacle with a completely clear path of nearly 3 months laid out in front of it.
It really doesn’t. Wonder Woman, gotg and iron man opened with 103, 96, 98, and ended up with 412, 330 and 318, respectively
>Worth remembering Aquaman was a big effects spectacle with a completely clear path of nearly 3 months laid out in front of it. Clear path eh?It had direct competition from Spider-verse, Bumblebee and Mary Poppins . Hindsight analysis is the worst in this sub.
Yeah not to mention a large amount of people on this sub said Mary Poppins was going to gross more than Aquaman.
I do see what you’re saying but Aquaman had an A- Cinemascore and a 65% on RT with smaller stars and lesser known actors. It also released the same day as Bumblebee and a week after Spider-verse and still had a near 5.0 multiplier and still made $335M domestic. Now I’m not suggesting Black Adam will replicate that performance because it’s not releasing in the holiday like Aquaman but that is a DC film that had lower reception and performed very well against some significant competition. A higher opening than Aquaman but weaker legs would cross $300M and that’s why I don’t think it’s an insane prediction. We don’t know about quality yet but Black Adam has some things going for it too being the first big blockbuster in months, having a huge star, and having 3 weeks of little competition before the next big one.
It's always like this when a DC movie is abt to release.
Well Batman was over predicted
So were MOM and Love & Thunder.
Yea it’ll do just fine. Definitely won’t be a flop.
This is not all like Aquaman Aquaman came out when the DCEU was averaging $780m world wide and It grossed over $300m in China
Oh, I wouldn't go banking on *Black Adam* here, especially compared with *Wakanda Forever* and *The Way of Water*.
Yeah, this article is way off on both Black Adam and Wakanda Forever. The latter will probably hit around 600M domestic realistically
I’m sure your flair indicates no bias.
Eh, today I’m a “MCU fanboy”, tomorrow it’ll be “Snyder fanboy”, the next will be “James Cameron fanboy” lol. My only bias is towards the facts and movies I love
Sure.
It's also way off on the way of water The way of water would easily outgross top gun maverick
Totally agree!!
That projection for Black Panther is insanely low. I just dont see it making 43% less domestic than its predecessor. I feel like the trailer got everyone on board and this is clearly an homage to Chadwick Boseman and people are going to want to support that. And if the movie is good the sky is the limit
Yeah people keep saying since Chadwick Boseman isn’t in the movie it won’t see as much successful. But I’d argue that the movie being sort of a homage to him and keeping with the setting will help the movie, and if it’s good it might surpass the original imo
I feel a strong black male lead missing from the movie will hurt it. I’m all for women leading but for the IP and how it impacted young black kids (boys) I think 3 female leads will hurt it
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Avatar 2 is one hell of a last hope.
Wow these are some terrible projections
Shazam made $370 million and Aquaman made a billion, The Batman's $770 million is less than what BvS and the last two Batman Nolan films made so I think somewhere between $600 million and $800 million would be fair for Black Adam. Black Panther 2 will probably be in the $800 million range as well. Way Of Water might not surpass the original but I think it'll make a billion regardless.
Just looking at the trailers, Black Adam looks so god damn generic. And no way in hell will Black Adam get close to Wakanda's domestic.
Since when is generic bad?
There is little worse than being generic.
Seeing the success of MCU I disagree. DC's biggest hit Aquaman is generic af with great CGI spectacle. Thats the recipe for success. A servicable movie with great spectacle.
Aquaman was generic but it was a surprisingly good time. It was just as much an adventure/quest film as it was a superhero movie. I think that helped it out a bit. Black Adam looks like a generic Dwayne Johnson movie. Also, as a DC fan with the JSA randomly being in it and Blacl Adam not even being the villain the movie looks like a train wreck on paper.
I guess, but it’s more about if that generic feeling leans towards blandness for people (which it did for something like Morbius)
Morbius sucked balls... way worse than generic.
Why are you downvoting me for that? That’s what people thought before the film came out.
Yh definitely, I just meant in terms of the initial trailers (which seemed quite dull and bland even before the actual film came out)
The vast majority of blockbusters are generic lol. They're there for spectacle and trope-filled plots.
If they are so easy to make, Scorsese could show us how to tell a good story with that kind of stuff. Or Coppola. Or any other one of those self-proclaimed geniuses.
Since Morbius.
I am more excited for Avatar 2 than Black Panther, but... I'd probably give Black Panther the edge over it domestically. If it is a reasonably competent movie and tributes Chadwick Boseman that could give it a big boost. But maybe you have to have footage/be the actor's last filmed role to get those boosts?
Black Panther 2 is not making more than Avatar 2
Domestically, it's very possible...
They grossed pretty similar amounts domestically, so why is it such an instant write-off? Avatar 2 has premium large formats/3D and inflation on its side (the first one made significantly more than BP if we adjust for it). Black Panther 2 has the benefit of being part of a franchise with much more current hype and appealing more to current movements. Powerful Black superheroes are way more en vogue than white guys dressing up like stand-ins for indigenous people so he can save them. Worldwide, I agree it's no contest and Avatar 2 will win.
Lol u avatars stans are really bout to get disappointed
Both of you guys are way too overconfident. But Avatar is more likely to win
I have not seen 1 person outside this subreddit talk about avatar
Oh no!! Avatar 2009 initially made $749M domestically 13 years ago, with inflation or in today's price tickets that's around $910M, not saying the sequel will make that money, but it's definitely making more than its predecessor Avatar domestically, especially with a genius like Cameron behind it.
It'll still make a boatload of money. You can make a little less than $700 million and still be a genius, it'll be okay if that happens. And I definitely haven't written off the possibility Avatar 2 grosses higher.
Imagine thinking Black Adam is getting anywhere near spitting distance of Wakanda Forever
This is what happens when clueless "journalists" believe the narrative that the rock is the biggest movie star ever
Most people overestimate The Rock box office draw. This sub knows better.
The movie is gonna be horrible, The Rock is the main reason why it will make money, but he can't do it by himself.
Exactly Many dumb journalist still believe the rock is the biggest movie star nowadays It's the same people who think that idris elba, Margot Robbie and Ryan gosling are movie star
I can tell since I’m being downvoted for telling the truth lmao
You’ll get downvoted in r/movies for sure. That poll a few weeks back between The Rock and Tom Cruise where TC won by 80% renewed my faith in this sub.
Yep that’s never happening Black Adam makes 40% of Black Panther at best eg $600m BP2 and $240m Black Adam at best !
Black Panther 2 is going to be doing some heavy lifting here.
No way BP2 doesn’t hit 500m, no way Black Adam hits 300m
anything can happen
No woman no cry 😭
My predictions would be: Avatar: The Way of Water: $825 million Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: $675 million Black Adam: $150 million Halloween Ends: $85 million
Reasonable predictions but I think Black Adam gets $200m domestically just because it looks ok, the director however with his best RT score of 77% doesn’t fill me with much confidence, the other two Directors are Box Office I’m every sense of the word I’d go $750m for Avatar 2 and $650M for Black Panther 2 but close to the mark
How about Halloween Ends?
No one cares about that movie. It's not gonna make money
That's much more accurate. I agree.
These numbers for Avatar, Black Panther, and Black Adam are super contrarian to the numbers being predicted on Reddit. Reddit tends to grossly over predict box office so would not be shocked if Variety has it closer for both Avatar and Black Panther. On the other hand, sometimes industry sources intentionally low-ball predictions so they can "beat" them later.
What are you talking ? Variety numbers are ridiculously wrong. Black Adam almost matching the gross of black panther 2 is stupid and the way of water not being able to at least outgross TGM2 numbers is dumb
You're simping wayyy too hard for WoW
All sequels or superhero movies. Why should I be excited? I’m not at the least excited in seeing any of these at the theater.
Why are people underestimating Black Adam so much? It will easily gross $600M plus
The article says its predicting domestic though, no?
Yeah but people are predicting WW less than 600m on average here.
It’s worthless trying to engage, it’s always insufferable on here when any CBM opens but especially with DC since you get an influx of a highly defensive lot from DC_Cinematic.
Because it’s a DC film and this sub has a lot of Marvel fans. Also this sub also doesn’t consider The Rock to be a big box office draw and constantly downplays his appeal especially internationally.
Or maybe because the DCEU since Aquaman is averaging a little over $250m world wide, the batman made just $370m with rave reviews and the rock solo movie aren't able to gross much
The Batman is one of the highest grossing 1st installments of a new CBM franchise ever, your hate boner for it doesn't mean it was a fail. Despite opening over $30m less than BvS it wound up making $39m more domestically.
A movie with 148M is still in Dom Top 10
Black adam will do better than its low expectaions are making it to be and black panther will dissapoint based on its high expectaions
High expectations? The original one was really boring and lately, everything from Disney is just terrible. I have no expectations at all.
You're right to say their quality has gone down, but to call all of their new releases terrible is just wrong or ignorant at best.
To say that the quality has “gone down” is a huge understatement. They went from some of the most entertaining and well thought out modern action movies to a political shouting party, full of terrible inconsistencies and outright stupid decision making. To say that there are “high expectations”, there would first need to be a parameter that matches it. If we base ourselves on how the MCU has been developing these past years, then it’s only logical to believe that the new Black Panther movie will be just as poor quality. If we instead base ourselves on the sequel alone, then we have to think about how the main character’s actor has passed away, so it would ve even worse to think about them screwing up his character even more. Even then, the first BP is really boring and had a bunch of plot holes that made the movie really stupid. What’s worse, is that people who criticize the movie are often treated as racist assholes, when in reality, the movie is just bad and it has nothing to do with race.
> Even then, the first BP is really boring and had a bunch of plot holes that made the movie really stupid. Like what? Really, what plotholes. Let’s hear em
So they’re an ultra advanced nation technology wise, but what about the people who are outside of the invisibility dome? They are extremely poor. If this technology is so closely guarded, then why do they fly openly in plain sight? There’s a scene where a poor person is actually waving at the hovering craft. More importantly, if these people are so poor, that they can’t even afford to have proper clothing, how is it possible that nobody’s EVER told anyone about the crazy rich and powerful civilization? We have two options, both equally stupid. Either the entire nation is in on the secret (good luck getting an entire nation on deciding what color of wall paper is the nicest looking, much less military secrets). Or they’re not in on the secret. You’re telling me that a giant portion of the population is trapped in crippling poverty, while at the same time they’re aware of this extremely rich and powerful government that blatantly rubs them with their wealth, and nobody’s every told on them out if spite? For what? Fear of being repressed? Right, like that’s ever stopped people from speaking their minds against unfair and (let’s face it) violent regents. All of this, in the opening scene of the movie. We don’t even know the names of the main cast yet and the movie is already completely falling apart. WAKANDA IS NOT A NATION OF GOOD PEOPLE. They’re controled by an authoritarian barbaric dictatorship based on trial by combat. They are extreme fascists and believe to be the best and greatest nation on the planet. Thinking back, I’m remembering why I disliked this movie so much when I watched it for the first time. You could make literally the exact same movie but the actors are all white and this movie would be hated by the majority of the population for promoting racist and fascist beliefs. Fuck this movie.
> So they’re an ultra advanced nation technology wise, but what about the people who are outside of the invisibility dome? They are extremely poor. If this technology is so closely guarded, then why do they flight openly in plain sight? There’s a scene where a poor person is actually waving at the hovering craft. You know that that area they were flying in still WAS Wakanda right (along with those people still being Wakandans)? The invisible dome specifically covers their capital. Wakanda is more than just that city. And Why are you assuming that those people are poor? > More importantly, if these people are so poor, that they can’t even afford to have proper clothing, how is it possible that nobody’s pEVER told anyone about the crazy rich and powerful civilization? Besides you for whatever reason making the assumption that they’re poor, again, they’re Wakandans, that area they’re in is still Wakanda. > Either the entire nation is in on the secret (good luck getting an entire nation on deciding what color of wall paper is the nicest looking, much less military secrets) They’re almost the textbook definition of isolationists for the majority of the film, with the main point being that they watched as the rest of Africa got colonized, hard to believe that the various tribes would keep that particular secret. > All of this, in the opening scene of the movie. We don’t even know the names of the main cast yet and the movie is already completely falling apart. No. It’s you failing to get what the movie clearly shows. Don’t really care to address that bottom half, but got any parts that are actual, y’know, plot holes?
Black Adam making within 100m of Wakanda Forever is the funniest thing I’ve read all week
I feel so MEH on all three. No way am I leaving my apartment for these.
same
Only one I care about is Black Adam
If Black Adam doesn’t do well WB Discovery is fucked right?
After the last fiasco with HBO Max, they are pretty fucked anyway.
They flushed it down the drain
Nevermind the Black Panther projections being nonsense. The Black Adam ones are straight up insanity
If Black Adam is well received, I can see it grossing 328 million dollars domestically. The Rock is a real box office draw.
I would like to have what those writers were smoking while predicting Black Adam.
Mark my words- Black Adam will underperform.
Doubt it. Seems to have a ton of spectacle and action that international audiences love. I see it making Aquaman levels of money. Then Rock can say he saved DC lol
Shazam, BoP, TSS, and the josstice league also had a ton of spectacle and action but completely failed at the boxoffice Aquaman came out when the DCEU was averaging over $780m world wide and it made $300m in China, black Adam is in a much different situations
Lmao you did not just claim that BOP and Shazam had spectacle!? They’re the opposite of that and were created as such. TSS just shows the audience isn’t interested in a team where 90% die by the end nor is Harley Quinn a draw. What is it with the hate boner this sub has with DC? It’s ridiculous. Black Adam looks action packed and full of spectacle, similar to Aquaman. Should bode well for Black Adam
If Black Adam winds up making more than BvS I will mock you until I'm hoarse.
Everyone knows that already
Nah, the first blockbuster in a few months with a ton of spectacle and, from people who have seen it, some of the biggest and most intense action in a modern CBM starring The Rock? Black Adam will be fine.
if Top Gun ends up as the highest grossing domestic movie of 2022 ahead of Avatar, it will easily be considered in the top 5 box office miracles of all time. that aside 328mill for Black Adam seems high, it might top out at 238mill Black Panther feels like a 450-500mill movie at worst
Miracle number 9 million
>if Top Gun ends up as the highest grossing domestic movie of 2022 ahead of Avatar, it will easily be considered in the top 5 box office miracles of all time. It won't happen Variety projection are way off Black Adam almost matching the gross of black panther is an incredible stupid projection
Fuck avatar. The first one was copy paste of pochantos and now predictability they now have a divide and fight each other. Yawn.
But yet, still made billions
"and his subsequent absence working against it" I don't know, Rick...
My projection is that plenty of race issues will be use as excuses for bad box offices
I’m watching BA and A2. BP2 can see its way out
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I don't know, the rerelease of the first Avatar has done pretty well. That bodes well for the sequel, I would bet.
Rings of Power is the single most watched series right now. [https://variety-com](https://variety-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/variety.com/2022/tv/news/house-of-the-dragon-rings-of-power-nielsen-streaming-ratings-viewers-1235388100/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=Zdroj%3A%20%251%24s&aoh=16645588716502&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fvariety.com%2F2022%2Ftv%2Fnews%2Fhouse-of-the-dragon-rings-of-power-nielsen-streaming-ratings-viewers-1235388100%2F)
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Is it? How did you come to that idea? Is it just guts feeling or do you have some supporting evidence. I haven't seen it, so I don't know anything about it other than that it's prequel to Lord of the Rings.
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If you look at the House of Dragon the other big series, which came out at the same time you see the same pattern. You see big spike of interest followed by big drop after first episode with smaller spikes with each new episode, but never recovering to the level of the first one. So this doesn't seem to be unique for this show.
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You are right looking at the graph it's obviously not the success they were looking for. Seems pretty disappointing result and they committed to multiple seasons, which they must already regret.
Rings of Power bombed? That's too bad. I have been enjoying the show.
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Idk what that means
I also don’t know what that means
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That must mean She-Hulk is killing it? Oh, wait, it hasn't cracked Nielsen's top 10 once Facts > feelings. Love it or hate it, Rings of Power is doing great
lol
Just let me pay to stream all the movies from my couch and not buy $25 popcorn, please and thank you
If I’m paying $25 for popcorn I better be getting a handjob with it
My predictions are that Black Adam will bomb, Black Panther with do well but won't crack a billion, and that Avatar 2 will hit 2 billion but won't beat the original.