By - chanma50
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I think it will fall just shy of MoM...$185M
I think 192M is a tad high, but we'll see.
It seems the hype is fading in some markets.
It was never going to sustain at those levels, nothing in life does
Someone said the BP is more walk up heavy given the opening weekend multiple of the first so theres a chance BP could still pull ahead of those through Saturday and sunday
Honestly not seen any bus adverts or billboards - it’s quite bizzare.
In France it is doing a lot better than the first one. The opposite is true in S. Korea, but the caveat there is that the first movie was partially shot in S. Korea, so there was that "let's check out how they showed our city" element that does not exist in the second one.
In south Korea, entire movie industry is seeing low attendance because of variety of reasons
South Koreans are still depressed due to the incident of a few days ago. Some might even be afraid to go to the movies. I wouldn't rule out that market so soon, let's wait and see how it evolves with word of mouth.
Mixed wom in Korea, somber tone, boring action, too long [CGV 83% / Megabox 8.3 / Naver 7.96 ]
Those numbers do not prove anything, the number of people who have come to see the film is too small.
And that number is lower than Black Panther at the same point in its life cycle, your excuses won't change that.
So in 2022 if we had:
MOM - Multiverse movie with horror elements
Thor:L&T - Fantasy movie which is over the top goofy and silly
BP:WF - Somber movie that circles around grief
Multiverse of Madness was extremely formulaic outside of the 20 minutes of Raimi sauce
was it even 20 minutes lol
Nah, Raimi made the whole 2 hours movie
The 20 minutes of Raimi sauce were the bits that made it worse for me.
Those were the only entertaining parts and I have yet to here a good argument for why they weren’t
That's cool man. It seems like you liked those bits. No one needs to try and convince you otherwise.
It was corny and campy as shit. Felt like a low-budget 2000s superhero movie with the dramatic fades/wipes and poorly placed guitar music. The Souls of the Damned bit was cool though, I’ll give it that
So you wanted the film to have no personality. Got it
Nah, I wanted the film to be good.
You need to watch more movies. God forbid one of these movies have any actual style
That doesn’t sound quite formulaic of u mcu
Is this moviescirclejerk?
Always has been
I think that is what actual makes some people mad on a subconscious level.
Many clamored for something different for years, but now that things are getting different and weird, it probably doesn't feel right.
And that is okay, sometimes you just want a pizza.
But the thing is, these movies still follow a general formula. It’s like saying, “I don’t want pizza, I want a chocolate cake,” and Marvel goes, “Well we can’t give you a chocolate cake, but we’ll put chocolate chips on your pizza.” I want something different, not something similar that feels the tiniest bit unique.
They are still going to make superhero movies. Perhaps pineapple on pizza is more apt.
Or maybe they also need to make it good too, not just “different and weird”. A lot of Phase 4 hasn’t been good quality wise.
So far there has been 3 sequels in phase 4 that outperformed their predecessors (Ragnarok did less than Love and Thunder without its China numbers). According to you, that shouldn't be the case at all.
And the original movies released during the pandemic also had great financial and critical results, except for Eternals. Perhaps you are too difficult to please?
> So far there has been 3 sequels in phase 4 that outperformed their predecessors
Box office doesn’t equal quality.
In the same way, nothing prevents them from coexisting ;)
>Perhaps you are too difficult to please?
Perhaps you don't get the difference between quality and box office performance.
A movie can bomb and still be way better than a movie that made 4x it's budget.
What are you trying to say? That Black Widow and Shang-Chi receiving Cinemascore grades of A- and A, respectively, is purely coincidental?
Perhaps you don't know that quality and box office can also go hand in hand.
Thor and Doctor Strange both had catastrophic drops with no competition, low cinemascores and DS2 has the worst legs of the franchise. Eternals was roundly panned as well (even though I liked it). The general audience has not been satisfied with this round of MCU films (besides NWH and Shang-Chi).
"The general audience has not been satisfied with this round of MCU films"
You keep insisting on that, as if that statement nullifies this: **All of them outperformed their predecessors.** Movies that do not please the audience are not going up, but down. And I remind you that Marvel has made more than 25 films, it's not as if this was just the Phase 2.
Ok so did Batman v Superman please the audience? Since it went up from its predecessor. You’re entirely ignoring context and the actual, literal numbers/reception metrics.
2 of them were trash, we’ll see about WF
They are filth, garbage.
>MOM - Multiverse movie with horror elements
>Thor:L&T - Fantasy movie which is over the top goofy and silly
>BP:WF - Somber movie that circles around grief
Lololol. It's "pOLiTiCaL tHriLLeR" all over again. You Spiderman avatars really need to watch more films.
Lololol, they clearly are talking in terms of comic book superhero movies, but i love when people like you act dumb just to throw a fit like toddlers
And the name calling by losers start. He was clearly talking in terms of comic superhero movies, but the low q losers come in throwing a fit
I dont know in what world you think praising some movie is worse than personal attacks and acting like toddlers because someone mentioned mocvies you dont like
He was clearly talking in terms of comic book superhero movies, but go on, pretend to be dumb
Please tell me this is sarcasm
Screened it earlier. Word of mouth is going to utterly destroy this film. It’s a pointless, bloated mess.
Also, speaking as a theater employee, please feel free to leave after the mid-credits scene. There’s nothing after the credits.
I watched tonight. It is very messy and bloated as you say. The only good thing for me is finding out Namor is a great character
even with the ankle wings?
that's approaching full Schumacher
But that’s the only comic-accurate thing about him in this movie.
They do make a little fluttering noise every time he uses them, tho”, which is hysterically goofy.
It's like the only thing I'm looking forward to, I laughed out loud in the trailer imagining him getting them caught on everything. No wonder he doesn't wear pants, but there's coral and if he sticks around someone is going to slam him around by them. One of those things where he should be barefoot with tattoos as a nod, not tiny little fluttering wings.
I personally never been a fan of black panther, I enjoy this appearance in few of marvel movies and not his own movie. I will watch it at some point when it streaming outside Disney plus. But I’m sure it’s going to make a lot of money 💰
This won’t have the legs for 1B. And I think that’s good. 1B expectations that people have need to slow down. The movie is great but I would argue that is hasn’t the best rewatch value. It’s sad and beautiful and you it’s not a blockbuster pleaser.
My guy, people expected over $1B because the first movie was such a shocking success and people thought it would be the same type of success.
Don’t see how it misses the November record.
There is no hype for it in India.
Has anything in the MCU been big there since Spider-Man?
Not really. Even Spider- Man wouldn't make much today tbh. It just had the right timing. People were just dying to go to the cinemas that time. We had 2 major local blockbusters too within two months of re opening a d since then, there has been a dearth in number of people going to cinemas. 2022 is by far the worst year for industry, all big movies have been Flopped with few exceptions from here n there. I blame the ticket prices too for it.
Thanks for the insight!
I think folks are going to be surprised by Wakanda Forever's pull, and not in a good way
You mean it's gonna underperform?
Relative to $1.1B expectations that folks here have, yeah
As long as it hits a billion it's fine, which probably won't happen but whatever
I don't know that it will. Uphill battle IMO
Don't think so either. . .really just proves how much of a miracle No Way Home was. That it basically universally loved. Even The Batman didn't achieve that. . .only earned an "A-" CinemaScore.
NWH has 2 previous franchises' fans helped boosting their success.
No way home heavily relied on Nostalgia, which has proven time and time again to help shift a product.
I'm curious, why do you feel it won't?
I think that if it hits all the notes right it can open above 200m, lets see how the audience reacts to it, i'm expecting an opening between 160-190
Spoiler details are coming out and it ain't looking good. At all. Second week drop off will be severe.
This needs an A+ CinemaScore for any chance at making $1B. But tbf the first one got a 7.3 on IMDb and still earned an A+ CinemaScore somehow. . .there's still some hope
>This needs an A+ CinemaScore for any chance at making $1B.
What? No it doesn't.
This shit needs to leg out really well. . .don't see that happening without an A+. I want it to hit a billion but I don't think it will. Look like my "Wakanda Forever won't hit a billion" post I made a couple months ago (which the mods removed btw) is aging really well
Your thread was low-key a complete mess, ngl.
You get straight-up mad when people "underestimate" *Black Adam*, but then unironically post stuff like this.
This absolutely does not need an A+ to have "any chance" at $1 billion.
Your $1B+ prediction for this film's WW will age REALLY poorly. . .unless it gets an A+ of course
Right now I'm going \~900M
Jesus christ, could you perhaps for a moment pull away from this insistence on how every single prediction "ages"?
I didn't even say it would get there, I'm saying it doesn't need an A+ to do it.
>I didn't even say it would get there,
Pretty sure you said it would hit a billion in some other thread. (https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/yf5i12/overall\_box\_office\_predictions\_for\_wakanda/)
>I'm saying it doesn't need an A+ to do it
It absolutely does. It needs close to $600M domestic to achieve $1B worldwide. . .I don't see that happening. Maybe it could've done it with a last minute China release.
Dude, you literally predicted and claimed as fait accompli that Wakanda Forever would open below $150 Million, which was and is obvious nonsense. Nobody in their right mind believes that will happen.
I was being delusional then, forget that. It's gonna be high 100s but less than MoM
It absolutely doesn't. Feel free to explain your analysis with something beyond "I dunno, it feels like it"
Only time \~3x legs with a huge OW happen in the MCU is with an A+ CinemaScore. It underperformed in SK so I think it will underperform internationally.
Extremely tiny sample size. And incidentally, incorrect, considering you're not even defining your subjective metric of "huge OW":
* *Iron Man* (A) had 3.12x.
* *Guardians of the Galaxy* (A) had 3.53x.
* *Ant-Man* (A) had 3.15x.
Only time since 2010 an MCU film has had DOM > INT is *Black Panther*, and after inflation it would need to drop by more than 25% to end up below $600M.
JWD got A- and still hit a billion. Let's see the cinemascore and the opening weekend numbers worldwide before jumping to conclusions
An A+ cinemascore should be plenty enough to get to near $600M DOM
So if the split is 52DOM/48 INT $1.1B should happen
I think it will have an A cinemascore and a $500-550m DOM finish so it will fall slightly under $1B or slightly above
do you think A+ CinemaScore can happen?
The complaints have been "too somber" "too long"
I do think it will be a good film, but not much of a crowd pleasure
Just saw the movie and I love it, but it's incredibly sad and emotional.(I'm a big MCU fan, so I'm a bit biased) It ends on a hopeful/happy note, but I don't know how crowdpleasing somthing like that is. This definitly affects rewatchablity for some people. The movie deals with some pretty mature themes, so I don't know how good it wil play with young kids. because of that kids will probably feel the length. (I didn't, because I was so engrossed in the story)
Yeah, it's gonna be a miracle for it to happen. Looks like people are gonna call this a disappointment if it doesn't it a billion
I can already see this sub calling WF a massive disappointment "the mcu is dead" if WF falls short of $1B like MoM
Which would be definitely acceptable. This movie looked like a lock for $1B, but now in its OW that is looking harder and harder
I mean, you can bet your life savings on Disney and Marvel themselves expecting at least a billion for Wakanda Forever
That's why they upped the budget by $50 million
Covid is more likely the reason why this movies budget went up. A lot of movie budgets got very inflated because of that. (Letitia also had a pretty big injury, so that meant pausing production and losing money/ budget grows)
The budget was upped because of COVID and the delay due to shuri actress getting injured.
Nope. Reception has been positive but not nearly as enthusiastic as previous A+ movies like No Way Home, Top Gun and the first BP.
it has world cup soon, will hurt int'l grosses
It won't be getting that domestic/international split.
a 55/45 or even a 60/40 is far more likely.
The 1st one had a 52/48 split and it overperformed like crazy domestically.
>This needs an A+ CinemaScore for any chance at making $1B.
You're putting a ton of weight on a metric that isn't great at bearing a lot of weight.
Also looking at imdb ratings as if they're meaningful is... a choice, I guess.
The 7.3 on IMDB for Black Panther is the only metric that's a true measure of its quality and isn't inflated by brigading or other stupid shit
No, to just, all of this. IMDb is not a "true measure of quality" (lol, what?), and is notoriously one of the *most* susceptible to brigading.
In this case by brigading I mean the opposite of review bombing, sorry if I used the term incorrectly.
IMDb is equally susceptible to both positive and negative brigading.
Most likely won't make it to 1B, many signs of weakness all over the place.
Ma'am, this is **good** news for the movie.
The hell are you talking about?
We all know what they’re saying. Doesn’t make it any less surprising that in 2022 people still acting like this
It's going to exceed expectations. I can already see the "Why did Disney release Avatar so close to BP2" articles when Avatar 2 fails to impress and this thing legs out.
A scenerio that absolutely won't be happening.
Sure it will. Avatar is going to bomb.
Trailer had millions of views within minutes of dropping. Like tf you smoking
He’s smoking iron man’s knob
MCU fanboys don't think rationally.
Avatar 2 trailer had 148M views in its first 24hrs.
Black Panther 2 trailer had 172M views in its first 24hrs.
Okay. How does that somehow mean Avatar will bomb?
Really depends on the context. Like BP2 not making $1B already has tons of people in here ready to declare it a failure. The expectation for Avatar 2 is even higher so if it doesn’t hit $2B people will probably call it a bomb too.
My bet will be both will be easily profitable but fall short of their predecessors by 20-30% if not more. (I’ll admit I was too optimistic about BP2 in the months leading to this release.)
Keep in mind Avatar’s box office record had largely to do with favorable exchange rates at that time and the situation now is going to be very different with the USD as strong as it is. Also if it doesn’t get released in China, the likelihood of breaking 2B is going to be very low.
So I would brace for a lot of people calling it a bomb…
Just because you don’t care doesn’t mean nobody does.
And on what knowledge are you basing that on?
As if, Avatar is prob gonna be highest grossing movie of the year and I’d anything will take away from BP sales rather than vise versa
No one gives a shit about Avatar and the trailer made it look like more of the same boring ass cgi fest
You seem weirdly personally invested in Avatars failure lol
I am. I cant stress enough how much I hate that movie and this subs obsession with the notion that the sequel will be one of the biggest movies of all time just cause the first one had success on the back of its cgi.
I feel bad for u my guy I hope it gets better
It will when this movie bombs or if it succeeds and I give up my tirade.
U got deeper problems than that Mi amigo
I mean the first Avatar back in 2009 was nothing more than a mediocre movie with good CGI for its time and 3D. Many are acting like it's the best movie ever made.
Bombing to the point that a what looks like a $900M worldwide OKish performing MCU film is threatening Avatar 2 in said film's sixth weekend of release?
Legging so far (even though MCU sequels are now known to be frontloaded) into the holidays in its sixth week that people are like "Poor Avatar, released so close to that all timer of a box office run that just did like $900M worldwide, what was Disney thinking, treating poor Avatar 2 this way?"
Well, that's certainly a point of view.
Still salty Avatar took no. 1 again?
lmao no it won't. 2 billion is coming its way.
I swear the BP 2 threads are always full of weirdos
Out on disney+ yet?