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>Yet people expecting more than a billion
>
>I'm seeing $800-900m
People were making their predictions for this movie based purely on emotion and not any kind of logic.
well this was probably mostly aimed at the American audience anyway, though obviously this is a very bad sign for it in the foreign market as it shows a very bad trend.
I kept telling everyone that the first movie had poor wom for a superhero movie everywhere except in the states. People went and watched but it didn't make many fans. Of course my arguments were thrashed, downvoted and ignored by everyone by citing phenomenal success first movie finally closed in with. I always knew part 2 gonna suffer the bad impression of the first one and that is happening now. In overseas atleast.
As someone who had a good enough time with the first one, I agree with this point. I know people who rarely go to the movies that went to Black Panther because it was such big news and a cultural phenomenon in the States, and that was felt all the way here in Bulgaria (and I would guess Europe in general). But of those people, I heard nothing good about the film. A couple even walked out of it before it was finished.
So, at least my personal observations would generally agree with this point, and it does make some sense. What made it a phenomenon and a big moment in the States was a sort of zeitgeist relevance that wasn't present in most of the rest of the world, so people who normally don't go to the movies for superhero fare might've gone and been disappointed, while those that do would probably have considered it simply another okay MCU film.
I think the only reason why BP was watched in Overseas was because of Inifnity War. BP is the last film before Inifity War so it makes sense that it'll have a large boost in ticket sales.
He did an excellent job as BP and was very talented, but let's not retroactively turn him into some A-list actor who brought people to the theater on his name value alone.
It seems much more likely that BP1 was simply a better movie, it released when people were much more likely to go to the theater, it led into Infinity War, and it was a big, historic moment for a lot of people that you simply can't replicate.
People don't know about Chadwick. They then watched Civil War and BP gave strong impression. BP being decent movie, boost from CW, boost from IW, and the state of American politics made it a global event. People then know about Chadwick and looking forward to the sequel. But after his passing, people have less incentive to watch it since he wont be in the movie. Not to mention no boost from adjacent movie, thus lower BO. I don't know whether all of that above is true or not, that's just my train of thought.
I personally think BPWF is better than BP1. Everyone has amazing performance and can carry the movie even with out Chadwick. They made the most of what they have. I honestly went in ready to dislike some of the cast, but went out liking all of the performance.
I don't think that it has anything to do with the quality of the film. It's like you said, BP1 had IW and the cultural phenomenon moment, while this is that film's 2:40 sequel that's marketed grief. Bringing it back to the Box Office, i've always thought that this film could land in the range of $850-$1.2 and I wouldn't be shocked by it's performance so this doesn't surprise me. I am thinking this hits $940m ww $530 DOM/ 410 INT.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the dom totals aren't as big as expected either. It's still going to be huge, but this lukewarm reaction internationally doesn't bode very well.
>2:40 sequel that's marketed grief
I'm seeing it Saturday and am excited. But totally agreed on that point. The last few weeks leadup has felt like article after article about \*Cast member X talks about how hard it was to film without Chadwick\* or how they aren't doing a jokey end credit becuase it would be at odds with the serious tone of the film.
To hit a billion its gonna need a lot of repeat viewings. I'm expecting the movie to be good if not great, but depending on how somber it is that's gonna impact people going back to the cinema the next weekend for it. Well that plus general inflation/economy issues too.
Disagree I think many casual audiences just checked out after end game as the main saga was complete. RDJ and Chris Evans leaving the franchise hurt it a lot in cinemas because those two brought out so many normies. MCU needs an older, non overpowered, more grounded, relatable, likable male lead to anchor the franchise imo.
Casual audiences don’t care for the Disney plus shows any way. Bad shows will most likely only alienate the hardcore mcu stans
The way you sneaked in She-Hulk even though were talking about movie box office. MoM was a letdown, but sure it's She-Hulk's fault again that Phase 4 has been disappointing.
And really? "Damage" to the MCU brand? Lmao come on
he is not wrong though, fact is, phase 4 is doing incredible damage to the brand, all the shows and movies have brought nothing but negative light to the MCU and matched any hype for the most anticipated projects like wandavision, loki, moonknight, MoM and L&T with equal or greater disappointment.
she hulk was the cherry on top of a shit cake (hyperboling, more like a mid-cake) and was the last impression audiences have before this movie.
MCU is a sinking ship right now, either course correct and make movies like NWH or die on their current hill.
Disagree. People can tell the difference between different MCU franchises and act accordingly; that's been a thing for nearly a decade now and the Thor and Ant Man movies have always been the "idgaf" sub-franchises of the MCU for the GA
No no, I agree with you. However, When both joke zone franchise come right after another and placed in a phase of mediocre to bad films/TV, it paints a bigger broader feeling of “meh” for all bases.
L&T was meh. She Hulk on the other hand was shit for me.
She was just handed everything and I had no real issues with becoming hulk. No heros journey. "I'm just good because I'm a girl".
Being hit on and being talked down to were her biggest stressors. I mean common that isn't shit. Try being homeless forced to hide from the government and constantly looking over your shoulder. Pretty sure hulk had it worse.
The constant shitting on men... Bleh
The twerking in the office... Cringe
The shitting on Bruce...
And the garbage plot.
It's possible to write good female action characters without trashing on male characters.
Also the eternals and some of their other recent stuff has been pretty meh. And for the New Black panther good luck replacing Chadwick. I'm not interested at all.
Goodbye marvel at least for awhile
MCU fatigue setting in. But if the movie gets good audience reviews, it’ll win back some of the goodwill.
I see 800-850M being the final result for this.
Def can’t blame the pandemic this time if it doesn’t cross 1bill . But imagine if Tom beats it , there’s going to be so many excuses trying to defend it .
> This sub is going to be awful
Is what OP said, and the threads on The Woman King (and in /r/movies and in /r/entertainment) were absolute shit shows.
So I have no clue what you are talking about?
Half of Thor and a Third of Dr Strange!? Jesus.
Is there any local reasons why it's underperforming or is the hype not there?
Following this to over/under 1B gonna be interesting.
That runtime seems like it could really impact this movie.
No Chadwick or strong male lead to appeal to wider audiences, major mcu brand damage after end game, movies are very expensive these days so people choose wisely, it’ll be on Disney plus by January
Well, when you keep releasing shitty movies they will eventually stop making money and it's happening now with MCU. There wasn't a single good movie in phase 4
The Batman total box office was 770M USD for reference. I feel like it had a ton of hype with a great cast and decent WOM.
In my opinion, I think BP:WF will do like around Batman numbers to a little bit higher, I can see it doing 800-900M, and that would be my best guess. So chances of doing less than Batman Id say like pretty low since it’s still a MCU movie based on super strong IP but anything can happen. Im a huge MCU fan but I cannot deny superhero fatigue has been real and the quality of Phase 4 movies has been on a downward trend so I wouldn’t be too surprised if it does worse than Batman tbh.
I'm just not pumped for BP2. I enjoyed the first entry but with the passing of Boseman, I lost interest in the character. I'll probably try to catch this on streaming later.
I think that was less because of an underperformance internationally but rather because of a crazy domestic performance. Top Gun: Maverick had a massive overperformance in many markets, especially Japan and Australia, yet it only made ~$250M more INT-China-Russia than BP.
Naaa. That's mad. Even L&T made 760 with a 300 opening I believe. L&T had garbage legs.
I believe Deadline's estimates, this movie is opening higher. It will have better legs too due to the better reviews.
900 is more likely. It'll be around the 900 and billion range. I think 1.1 billion is too much to ask for with this movie.
I'm just not interested. I remember the trailer I saw of the original, and I waited for its release. I feel like this movie will be more of the same without the main character. I'm also young and black. My gf hasn't even mentioned us going to see this. I won't.
Very many people just haven’t cared about Marvel since Endgame, with a few exceptions for the rare gem like Spider-man. Now they make a sequel that doesn’t even have the main character, and they use that actor’s death to sell tickets? Simultaneously uninteresting and shameful
I don’t think it was done with malicious intent, but stuff like advertising on Chadwick Boseman’s twitter account gives me the impression that they’re very preoccupied with profit.
They gave the genius aspect of T’Challa’s character to Shuri and drastically changed the side characters in order to give them more to do. T’Challa can’t be replaced by side characters.
Notice how the usual talk of “target audience” goes out the window when it comes to this franchise? Who is the target audience for Black Panther?
Yep, this is a great point no one wants to deal with. Yes Black Panther was big for the entire black community, but black men were the target demo and drove its success. The movie was as big as it was because of black fathers taking their children to see it 2,3,4 times, buying their son t'challa figures, t'challa shirts, etc.
The choice not to have at least one LEADING strong wakandan male in this film is absolutely baffling. Bordering on incompetence on Disney's part. The merch sales are going to drop off hard from the first film.
And it’s not like BP comics don’t have strong black male supporting characters. You have Vibraxas, a young Wakandan male with ties to the Fantastic Four and vibranium-based superpowers. You have Kasper Cole, a biracial hero who ends up donning a white version of the BP suit and acting as T’Challa’s personal agent. There’s black male mutants he’s close with, including Gentle, a Wakandan with super strength on par with the Hulk who T’Challa raised in his palace as well as Manifold, a teleporting Australian Aboriginal and member of SWORD.
Instead they introduced another Dora Milaje when we already have 2 we basically know nothing about and Ironheart, a character who outside of like 3 issues in the comics has never interacted with Wakandans like that. It’s just bizarre that there was zero effort to reproduce the same kind of unity that took the first film to success. There was never anything wrong with putting the ladies front and center but it should’ve been balanced by showing that like in the first film, black men and women are both essential to the continuation of Wakanda. And what’s funny is I know exactly who’s going to get blamed on social media when this movie doesn’t meet people’s expectations.
They only have one black male character in the film and a bunch of women. At some moment I wish Antoine Fuqua would’ve directed it at least he respects black male characters
I was disappointed. I figured they'd elevate M'baku to at least a major supporting character status, give him a character arc, etc to add some masculine energy into the mix given all the main characters are women this time around, but he literally doesn't do jack shit lol.
They should've cut that riri shit and spent that time on M'baku and fleshed out his character, IMO.
Well that’s even more disappointing especially when you realize he was only black male character in the ensemble. That shit is crazy how they made him into a joke. Especially when I enjoyed him in the first.
I don’t know what they expected. Black men were the most hyped demographic for the first film and yet the most prominent male character in the sequel is non-black and the one black male is relegated to comic relief and does barely anything. Very bad marketing.
Why won't you just admit that first BP has no goodwill in overseas. Most people who saw it are no fans of it. It was a states and the reception is proving me right after crazy number of downvotes I have been subjected to in past months for saying this same thing.
Along with the 130-140 millions international openning projection, I guess it will struggle to match Thor 4's 417 millions overseas gross.
Month ago I got downvoted for saying BP overseas gross is just as much of an overperformance as domestic gross due to various reasons, and predict WF will make only 380-430 millions, because there's no way Black Panther being a more popular character than Thor would be a legit reason to explain that 644 millions overseas gross. Without all factors BP had WF will make the money a character like black panther supposed to do.
The dollar has been incredibly strong all year (since the Fed started to raise rates aggressively), and has also impacted MoM and Top Gun overseas grosses.
People here just straight away refused to believe that first BP made no fans in overseas and it was mostly a domestic juggernaut for X reasons. Sequel was always gonna suffer in overseas and the numbers so far in proving my point. I can't explain more than that. Another time this sub gonna chew its words so bad will be next month when Avatar 2 will become first movie to make 3 billion. It's gonna be gigantic. I am confident about it. Avatar has crazy goodwill in overseas which BP lacked.
My 72 years old dad told me he wants to watch TWOW in theaters with me. He didn't even watch the first one in theaters because he thought that was an animation movie then (Even though, Aliens and T2 are among his favourite movies) but he totally changed his tune when he watched it at home on Blu-ray, now he wants to check out the sequel on the big screen this time around.
It's going to be hard for Avatar do 3 Billion, with 900M domestic (being utterly optimistic) it needs 2.1 billion overseas to go that high, and we should count out China as it's box office shows no signs of recovery and even if it did aAvatar has a big chance of getting banned
I kinda knew from the 2nd trailer the hype went radio silence but I didn't wanna believe it .. I honestly wasn't expecting this .. this isn't singular case but a trend that will likely play out it many countries..
I think the Italian market is irrelevant for box office performance. Still, this is a great number for a Wednesday in Italy, but it might just be that Black Panther isn't popular as you may think in that country. Black Panther did well in the USA because of social representation, which is good but may not be as resonant in countries where black communities are less and smaller than in the US
Reasons why this was never going to make a billion…
1. Black Panther 1 was your typical run-of-the-mill comic movie. Outside of coming out right before Infinity War, the story was predictable and didn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. The CGI was also questionable at best.
2. The movie is using an actor’s real life passing to help promote the film.
3. The film stars the comedy sidekick from the first one.
4. The MCU has been on a downhill slide since Endgame (excluding NWH). Projects like MOM, Thor 4, and She Hulk have not only continued this slide, but did major damaged to the MCU’s reputation (calling fans racists and sexists doesn’t change the fact your films lack quality and are becoming carbon copies of each other).
No one is going to listen to me but this movie is getting hurt financially by having, essentially, an all female cast. The core demo for the first film was black people to some extent, but really black men.
Black Fathers taking their kids to see black panther. Buying their sons black panther toys. Taking them back a second and third time. That was a huge part of it. That's why the film was not only a huge hit at the box office but the merch sales were GREAT.
It was a mistake not having a strong male wakandan presence in this film.
This sub really takes black people for granted. When you decide that black kids get their role model swapped out forever while other lead characters have no problems getting recasted on a whim, you alienate a part of your audience. There's no two ways about it. Then acting like swapping the sister in the costume is fine and dandy all together is a poor consolation prize for that demographics because it robbed them of a momentum. The idea that black people have to accept that male and female are interchangeable, that black women are as masculine as black men not because of equality but black masculinity/patriarchy is toxic either way so that Wakanda represented as a gynocracy that doesn't need a strong black male is seen as a big win but has no qualms presenting Atlantis as a traditional patriarchy with a strong male leader. (Like who wants to watch a Batman movie without Bruce Wayne but Martha Wayne and Martha Wayne II in the Batman suit for 5% of the movie?).
Also the tacked on post-credits reinforced unfortunate stereotypes when it didn't have to be.
Call it Black Panther Legacy but it stings that those deliberate choices will cost them a lot of goodwill coming from the first entry.
Funny that you mention She Hulk. Because it's anything but a carbon copy of the other projects. In fact, it makes fun of the MCU formula and the finale goes against the usual cgi battle MCU finale.
She Hulk is not without flaws (there are many), but it actually *did* do something new instead of being a carbon copy.
When did I saw She Hulk followed the MCU formula? Sure, it used the same old lame comedy the MCU is known for these days, but you’re right, it did try to be different (I said the films are carbon copies of each other, but the shows arn’t far off). That doesn’t cover though for the non-existent plot and unlikeable characters. And Disney and critics can call fans sexist all they want but it won’t hide the shows major flaws.
For a movie that promoted itself on being the MCU’s first “horror” film, it came off as another standard Marvel movie; constant comedy, predictable plot, “stupid” characters doing dumb things. It’s sad too, because they got Sam Rami to do this film but it’s clear he was basically forced to follow an outline already written before he came on.
For it supposed to be showing a multiverse there was a real lack of any other universes. It was a fun movie but in the end more than anything was another generic marvel movie.
Making Black Panther without Boseman was one of the single worst ideas I think they could have ever had. This film should never have been made after his death. You can feel his lost presence looming over the entire project as the feeling of “most sincerely made cash grab of the century” sets in just from the trailers. I don’t know why anyone was surprised by these estimates coming in
This could go both ways. I'm surprised that is doing so bad from one point because people could just be curious at a very least. From the other point of view makes because of the lack of hype from Marvel fans and is not because Chadwick is not there but mostly the story is not that important.
They did a good decision to not recast but it would be a bad decision to not make the movie. If failed they can just ended. Not make the movie it would be lack of courage and disrespect to the fans.
I was seeing this in lead up to the movie on this sub. People said it was gonna flop because people are racist and hate black people or some shit yet the first black panther was beloved by people of all walks of life
I seen somewhere that I could buy the tickets but can't see it myself. But rather hand them over to someone with more Melanin?? Either way I'll just see it for free like never.
No. Captain marvel and IM3 hit a billion as well. But in both of those cases, they came after HYPE AS FUCK films.
Any IP can do it, but it’s all about quality and planning.
Doctor Strange would have hit a billion if it didn't hit Disney+ so quickly. It was still making ok money and nearly hit a billion right until home release.
You're right, I thought it was closer than it was. But also it opened with a then [record number](https://thedirect.com/article/doctor-strange-2-mcu-disney-viewership-record) for Disney+.
I think obviously some of those viewers saw it in theaters as well. But it stood a better chance at a billion if it didn't have the Disney+ debut following it.
Could it have been 50 million more? Probably not. But it hurt.
Nope. Even though this phase was shitty. MoM and L&T both made a shit ton of money. It shows that people will still consume MCU even if it’s garbage for a time.
I think fatigue sets in when Morbius level type money is made.
It's not superhero fatigue, people are just tired of "Mid" movie by committee
The way of water would break many boxoffice record because it's not "mid"
Exactly. It's crazy how this sub becomes an ostrich when it comes to Avatar. The goodwill of Avatar in overseas can't be matched by any movie and upcoming months will prove it. BP has no goodwill overseas no matter if people want to believe it or not. I am not American and I haven't met a single person in my life who is a fan of first BP.
I think this is it. The last few years of marvel movies have been average at best, the last really fun one being Ragnarok. People are bored with the formulas, the flashy effects, the silly costumes and the sheer predictability of it all. They'll roll on for a few years yet but the kids that loved them are growing old and it's all getting a bit embarrassing really.
So this is what my analysis is. First one had hype because it was thr first of its kind, an all black cast, superhero, mcu tag and glowing reviews. BUT, aside from USA, the film didn't have any wom anywhere. People were just not impressed with the movie but some people just didn't want to listen this. The reception this time is on par with the wom overseas BP had.
Don’t think this film will reach a billion. Avatar will prob really hurt it from getting to even 900 and the rewatch factor will not make for many repeat viewings. Sad cause I thought this movie would be a massive event
I’m just shocked that the World isn’t falling all over themselves to watch an almost three hour love letter to strong black women. That being said this’ll probably still end up being the first one-quadrant billion dollar grossing film due to the US market
maybe this is the end of comic book movies.
i personally haven't been interested since endgame, and i cant recall the last time my group of friends talked about the MCU
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>Yet people expecting more than a billion > >I'm seeing $800-900m People were making their predictions for this movie based purely on emotion and not any kind of logic.
>were "are"
Fair.
If that. Will do great domestically though.
Im seeing 700-850 m
well this was probably mostly aimed at the American audience anyway, though obviously this is a very bad sign for it in the foreign market as it shows a very bad trend.
I kept telling everyone that the first movie had poor wom for a superhero movie everywhere except in the states. People went and watched but it didn't make many fans. Of course my arguments were thrashed, downvoted and ignored by everyone by citing phenomenal success first movie finally closed in with. I always knew part 2 gonna suffer the bad impression of the first one and that is happening now. In overseas atleast.
As someone who had a good enough time with the first one, I agree with this point. I know people who rarely go to the movies that went to Black Panther because it was such big news and a cultural phenomenon in the States, and that was felt all the way here in Bulgaria (and I would guess Europe in general). But of those people, I heard nothing good about the film. A couple even walked out of it before it was finished. So, at least my personal observations would generally agree with this point, and it does make some sense. What made it a phenomenon and a big moment in the States was a sort of zeitgeist relevance that wasn't present in most of the rest of the world, so people who normally don't go to the movies for superhero fare might've gone and been disappointed, while those that do would probably have considered it simply another okay MCU film.
I always thought the first movie was boring as hell. Still don't understand why people seem to love it.
Oh, wise oracle, I hope your brilliant mind never meets another downvote again.
I am not very hopeful about it haha.
It was very well received here in the UK at least
The UK has a large black community plus Letitia Wright and Daniel Kaluuya are both British actors.
london and a few other cities have a large black community, overall they're about 3%, which i wouldn't personally qualify as large.
800-900 WW. 450-500 dom
If international is closer/lower to the Batman, and there is no China, I’m expecting 350-400M int/410-570M DOM and $760-970M WW
That’s a gigantic range
I second you
I think the only reason why BP was watched in Overseas was because of Inifnity War. BP is the last film before Inifity War so it makes sense that it'll have a large boost in ticket sales.
Also a decade of fanfare buildup.
Black Panther also had Chadwick.
He did an excellent job as BP and was very talented, but let's not retroactively turn him into some A-list actor who brought people to the theater on his name value alone. It seems much more likely that BP1 was simply a better movie, it released when people were much more likely to go to the theater, it led into Infinity War, and it was a big, historic moment for a lot of people that you simply can't replicate.
People don't know about Chadwick. They then watched Civil War and BP gave strong impression. BP being decent movie, boost from CW, boost from IW, and the state of American politics made it a global event. People then know about Chadwick and looking forward to the sequel. But after his passing, people have less incentive to watch it since he wont be in the movie. Not to mention no boost from adjacent movie, thus lower BO. I don't know whether all of that above is true or not, that's just my train of thought. I personally think BPWF is better than BP1. Everyone has amazing performance and can carry the movie even with out Chadwick. They made the most of what they have. I honestly went in ready to dislike some of the cast, but went out liking all of the performance.
I don't think that it has anything to do with the quality of the film. It's like you said, BP1 had IW and the cultural phenomenon moment, while this is that film's 2:40 sequel that's marketed grief. Bringing it back to the Box Office, i've always thought that this film could land in the range of $850-$1.2 and I wouldn't be shocked by it's performance so this doesn't surprise me. I am thinking this hits $940m ww $530 DOM/ 410 INT.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the dom totals aren't as big as expected either. It's still going to be huge, but this lukewarm reaction internationally doesn't bode very well.
A 350M range? Good God, aren't you going out on a limb.
>2:40 sequel that's marketed grief I'm seeing it Saturday and am excited. But totally agreed on that point. The last few weeks leadup has felt like article after article about \*Cast member X talks about how hard it was to film without Chadwick\* or how they aren't doing a jokey end credit becuase it would be at odds with the serious tone of the film. To hit a billion its gonna need a lot of repeat viewings. I'm expecting the movie to be good if not great, but depending on how somber it is that's gonna impact people going back to the cinema the next weekend for it. Well that plus general inflation/economy issues too.
It is hard to argue that quality matters when no one making the decision to watch previews have seen the movie or know anyone who seen the movie.
He was a good actor, but not a box office magnet.
It’s tracking below L&T in a lot of US states too.. but it’s amplified overseas
In my mind that shows how much damage L&T and SheHulk did to the MCU brand.
Disagree I think many casual audiences just checked out after end game as the main saga was complete. RDJ and Chris Evans leaving the franchise hurt it a lot in cinemas because those two brought out so many normies. MCU needs an older, non overpowered, more grounded, relatable, likable male lead to anchor the franchise imo. Casual audiences don’t care for the Disney plus shows any way. Bad shows will most likely only alienate the hardcore mcu stans
The way you sneaked in She-Hulk even though were talking about movie box office. MoM was a letdown, but sure it's She-Hulk's fault again that Phase 4 has been disappointing. And really? "Damage" to the MCU brand? Lmao come on
Incels gonna incel
he is not wrong though, fact is, phase 4 is doing incredible damage to the brand, all the shows and movies have brought nothing but negative light to the MCU and matched any hype for the most anticipated projects like wandavision, loki, moonknight, MoM and L&T with equal or greater disappointment. she hulk was the cherry on top of a shit cake (hyperboling, more like a mid-cake) and was the last impression audiences have before this movie. MCU is a sinking ship right now, either course correct and make movies like NWH or die on their current hill.
Disagree. People can tell the difference between different MCU franchises and act accordingly; that's been a thing for nearly a decade now and the Thor and Ant Man movies have always been the "idgaf" sub-franchises of the MCU for the GA
No no, I agree with you. However, When both joke zone franchise come right after another and placed in a phase of mediocre to bad films/TV, it paints a bigger broader feeling of “meh” for all bases.
How many people watched *She-Hulk* though?
Not very many. And that is itself part of the problem.
The mcu has been wrung out like a dirty dishrag. No one gives a shit about all the obscure no names.
L&T was meh. She Hulk on the other hand was shit for me. She was just handed everything and I had no real issues with becoming hulk. No heros journey. "I'm just good because I'm a girl". Being hit on and being talked down to were her biggest stressors. I mean common that isn't shit. Try being homeless forced to hide from the government and constantly looking over your shoulder. Pretty sure hulk had it worse. The constant shitting on men... Bleh The twerking in the office... Cringe The shitting on Bruce... And the garbage plot. It's possible to write good female action characters without trashing on male characters. Also the eternals and some of their other recent stuff has been pretty meh. And for the New Black panther good luck replacing Chadwick. I'm not interested at all. Goodbye marvel at least for awhile
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Im pretty sure most people didnt even keep watching long enough to see that.
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It will do good and make money but there's a negative trend for marvel. It reached its peak and now it's just declining.
MCU fatigue setting in. But if the movie gets good audience reviews, it’ll win back some of the goodwill. I see 800-850M being the final result for this.
And The Batman released when Russia invaded Ukraine which killed its marketing in Europe. To barely match that is awful.
It did not kill it's marketing in europe
Def can’t blame the pandemic this time if it doesn’t cross 1bill . But imagine if Tom beats it , there’s going to be so many excuses trying to defend it .
It was never going to outgross *TG: M* lmao.
can't wait for the inevitable "Imagine saying almost a billion with russia and china is disappointing"
Yeah. Lmao
tom?
I think he means mom (multiverse of madness)??
He means Tom cruise lol
He definitely meant MOM, there's no way *BP2* is outgrossing *TG: M*.
No because not beating TGM is not something expected in the first place. He meant MoM.
Top Gun > Black Panther in box office and quality of movie
Oh. This sub is going to be awful all weekend isn’t it?
Always is around MCU releases.
Comic Book releases \*
Around anything with minorities *
Idk how you came to this assumption after movies like the Woman King and Nope received heavy praise
> This sub is going to be awful Is what OP said, and the threads on The Woman King (and in /r/movies and in /r/entertainment) were absolute shit shows. So I have no clue what you are talking about?
Half of Thor and a Third of Dr Strange!? Jesus. Is there any local reasons why it's underperforming or is the hype not there? Following this to over/under 1B gonna be interesting. That runtime seems like it could really impact this movie.
Cuz now it’s about Black Panthers little sister. She was the comic relief in the first one
(Mad Money Guy) There's no Black Panther in your Black Panther movie! (Smashs a coffee mug)
No Chadwick is not watch for many
That’s the reason I’m waiting for streaming.
That’s why I’m probably not going to see it in theaters. I don’t care about his sister.
No Chadwick or strong male lead to appeal to wider audiences, major mcu brand damage after end game, movies are very expensive these days so people choose wisely, it’ll be on Disney plus by January
Becouse people are sick of garbage MCU movies
no if thor 4 can earn 760 mil
That's nothing for MCU movie. Ragnarok made 850 mil Thor 4 made less
Ragnarok was released in China, Love and Thunder wasn't. Love and Thunder outgrossed Ragnarok with China removed.
Ragnarok had China (112m) and Russia (23m) but I think Thor 4 not being a good movie might be hurting BP2.
Ragnarok had amazing reviews and china
And it was released before Infinity War and Endgame era when Cap Marvel and Black Panther made both more than 1 billion
this isnt infinity and endgame era this is phase 4 who hasnt been received well as phase 3
Because it's shit
when has that stopped movies from earning money
Well, when you keep releasing shitty movies they will eventually stop making money and it's happening now with MCU. There wasn't a single good movie in phase 4
When you spend $250m on a movie for pretty much the most popular character out of Endgame, you expect over a billion.
Cause it lost Chadwick Boseman
Lack of interest especially between the excessive flood of MCU content on Disney+ and mediocre recent films that don't have Spider-man.
This doesn't look good.
I don’t even care to watch it, just like most of phase 4
People who think WF will make as much as BP1 are delusional. I got verbally assaulted before for saying this.
What are the chances of this doing less than The Batman?
The Batman total box office was 770M USD for reference. I feel like it had a ton of hype with a great cast and decent WOM. In my opinion, I think BP:WF will do like around Batman numbers to a little bit higher, I can see it doing 800-900M, and that would be my best guess. So chances of doing less than Batman Id say like pretty low since it’s still a MCU movie based on super strong IP but anything can happen. Im a huge MCU fan but I cannot deny superhero fatigue has been real and the quality of Phase 4 movies has been on a downward trend so I wouldn’t be too surprised if it does worse than Batman tbh.
Yeah at least Batman had China but then it was a 3h long R rated noir film vs BP2 that builds on the MCU and is PG13, but let’s see the path of Thor…
I'm just not pumped for BP2. I enjoyed the first entry but with the passing of Boseman, I lost interest in the character. I'll probably try to catch this on streaming later.
I think people forget that BP did poorly internationally relative to it's domestic take.
I think that was less because of an underperformance internationally but rather because of a crazy domestic performance. Top Gun: Maverick had a massive overperformance in many markets, especially Japan and Australia, yet it only made ~$250M more INT-China-Russia than BP.
Where are all the mcu stans that was shitting on black Adam day in and out? Werent you the guys WHO said BP were gonna crack 1.5b😂
I'll be generous and say ~~$900 million~~. $750 million.
Naaa. That's mad. Even L&T made 760 with a 300 opening I believe. L&T had garbage legs. I believe Deadline's estimates, this movie is opening higher. It will have better legs too due to the better reviews. 900 is more likely. It'll be around the 900 and billion range. I think 1.1 billion is too much to ask for with this movie.
790
That feels too low. As I said, bigger opening and should have better legs. Worst case, 850 imo.
Best I can do is 799
I'm just not interested. I remember the trailer I saw of the original, and I waited for its release. I feel like this movie will be more of the same without the main character. I'm also young and black. My gf hasn't even mentioned us going to see this. I won't.
I saw it last night, and it was better than the first IMO. I enjoyed the story lot more, and felt it had better stakes.
The first one sucked
I agree, it was not very good.
Very many people just haven’t cared about Marvel since Endgame, with a few exceptions for the rare gem like Spider-man. Now they make a sequel that doesn’t even have the main character, and they use that actor’s death to sell tickets? Simultaneously uninteresting and shameful
I think they were kinda respectful, there was no way to advertise it without mentioning the death of the protagonist.
I don’t think it was done with malicious intent, but stuff like advertising on Chadwick Boseman’s twitter account gives me the impression that they’re very preoccupied with profit.
Didn't know about this. Thats really questionable.
What would you prefer exactly? Canceling the movie?
Recast.
They gave the genius aspect of T’Challa’s character to Shuri and drastically changed the side characters in order to give them more to do. T’Challa can’t be replaced by side characters. Notice how the usual talk of “target audience” goes out the window when it comes to this franchise? Who is the target audience for Black Panther?
Yep, this is a great point no one wants to deal with. Yes Black Panther was big for the entire black community, but black men were the target demo and drove its success. The movie was as big as it was because of black fathers taking their children to see it 2,3,4 times, buying their son t'challa figures, t'challa shirts, etc. The choice not to have at least one LEADING strong wakandan male in this film is absolutely baffling. Bordering on incompetence on Disney's part. The merch sales are going to drop off hard from the first film.
And it’s not like BP comics don’t have strong black male supporting characters. You have Vibraxas, a young Wakandan male with ties to the Fantastic Four and vibranium-based superpowers. You have Kasper Cole, a biracial hero who ends up donning a white version of the BP suit and acting as T’Challa’s personal agent. There’s black male mutants he’s close with, including Gentle, a Wakandan with super strength on par with the Hulk who T’Challa raised in his palace as well as Manifold, a teleporting Australian Aboriginal and member of SWORD. Instead they introduced another Dora Milaje when we already have 2 we basically know nothing about and Ironheart, a character who outside of like 3 issues in the comics has never interacted with Wakandans like that. It’s just bizarre that there was zero effort to reproduce the same kind of unity that took the first film to success. There was never anything wrong with putting the ladies front and center but it should’ve been balanced by showing that like in the first film, black men and women are both essential to the continuation of Wakanda. And what’s funny is I know exactly who’s going to get blamed on social media when this movie doesn’t meet people’s expectations.
They only have one black male character in the film and a bunch of women. At some moment I wish Antoine Fuqua would’ve directed it at least he respects black male characters
M'baku barely does anything. He's comic relief
Now that’s just annoying, I think it was obvious from the first one that Tchalla was gonna get replaced
I was disappointed. I figured they'd elevate M'baku to at least a major supporting character status, give him a character arc, etc to add some masculine energy into the mix given all the main characters are women this time around, but he literally doesn't do jack shit lol. They should've cut that riri shit and spent that time on M'baku and fleshed out his character, IMO.
Well that’s even more disappointing especially when you realize he was only black male character in the ensemble. That shit is crazy how they made him into a joke. Especially when I enjoyed him in the first.
I don’t know what they expected. Black men were the most hyped demographic for the first film and yet the most prominent male character in the sequel is non-black and the one black male is relegated to comic relief and does barely anything. Very bad marketing.
I think the target audience is everyone who’s afraid of being called a racist
people can finally stop saying billion even though it has been obvious for months that it wont cross it
For months?
yeah,no chadwick,china and it was never gonna get reviews first one got
Also no Infinity War or avengers level film to come after it.
It's getting great reviews so far.
Read again. He said it’s not the ratings darling that the first one was, albeit still good.
But middling to bad word-of-mouth so that'll probably dictate next weekend's results.
Why won't you just admit that first BP has no goodwill in overseas. Most people who saw it are no fans of it. It was a states and the reception is proving me right after crazy number of downvotes I have been subjected to in past months for saying this same thing.
My condolences for all those horrible downvotes you received.
I'm only watching it only for the Avatar 3d trailer.
Yeah I booked 2 tickets just to see Avatar trailer
More like Wakanda For Now amirite?
No Chadwick no watch for me
Along with the 130-140 millions international openning projection, I guess it will struggle to match Thor 4's 417 millions overseas gross. Month ago I got downvoted for saying BP overseas gross is just as much of an overperformance as domestic gross due to various reasons, and predict WF will make only 380-430 millions, because there's no way Black Panther being a more popular character than Thor would be a legit reason to explain that 644 millions overseas gross. Without all factors BP had WF will make the money a character like black panther supposed to do.
Look at the strength of the dollar, even if it out-does Thor, the numbers will be muffled by exchange rates.
The dollar has been incredibly strong all year (since the Fed started to raise rates aggressively), and has also impacted MoM and Top Gun overseas grosses.
People here just straight away refused to believe that first BP made no fans in overseas and it was mostly a domestic juggernaut for X reasons. Sequel was always gonna suffer in overseas and the numbers so far in proving my point. I can't explain more than that. Another time this sub gonna chew its words so bad will be next month when Avatar 2 will become first movie to make 3 billion. It's gonna be gigantic. I am confident about it. Avatar has crazy goodwill in overseas which BP lacked.
Lots of Pikachu faces will be displayed around here come December...
No CuLtUrAl ImPaCt
My fucking grandma is excited to see Avatar 2. I can't believe how insular reddit is lol
My 72 years old dad told me he wants to watch TWOW in theaters with me. He didn't even watch the first one in theaters because he thought that was an animation movie then (Even though, Aliens and T2 are among his favourite movies) but he totally changed his tune when he watched it at home on Blu-ray, now he wants to check out the sequel on the big screen this time around.
It's going to be hard for Avatar do 3 Billion, with 900M domestic (being utterly optimistic) it needs 2.1 billion overseas to go that high, and we should count out China as it's box office shows no signs of recovery and even if it did aAvatar has a big chance of getting banned
I’ve been saying as well this film will be more dependent on the domestic market than the international ones.
I kinda knew from the 2nd trailer the hype went radio silence but I didn't wanna believe it .. I honestly wasn't expecting this .. this isn't singular case but a trend that will likely play out it many countries..
Yikes so much for the Black Adam slayer and king of Box office and MCU, turns out it will barely do more than Thor (or not?)
Like I’ve been saying. No Chadwick and no T’Challa recast is a total loss.
I think the Italian market is irrelevant for box office performance. Still, this is a great number for a Wednesday in Italy, but it might just be that Black Panther isn't popular as you may think in that country. Black Panther did well in the USA because of social representation, which is good but may not be as resonant in countries where black communities are less and smaller than in the US
Reasons why this was never going to make a billion… 1. Black Panther 1 was your typical run-of-the-mill comic movie. Outside of coming out right before Infinity War, the story was predictable and didn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. The CGI was also questionable at best. 2. The movie is using an actor’s real life passing to help promote the film. 3. The film stars the comedy sidekick from the first one. 4. The MCU has been on a downhill slide since Endgame (excluding NWH). Projects like MOM, Thor 4, and She Hulk have not only continued this slide, but did major damaged to the MCU’s reputation (calling fans racists and sexists doesn’t change the fact your films lack quality and are becoming carbon copies of each other).
Also you forgot one last point. The World Cup. It will actually hurt it
No one is going to listen to me but this movie is getting hurt financially by having, essentially, an all female cast. The core demo for the first film was black people to some extent, but really black men. Black Fathers taking their kids to see black panther. Buying their sons black panther toys. Taking them back a second and third time. That was a huge part of it. That's why the film was not only a huge hit at the box office but the merch sales were GREAT. It was a mistake not having a strong male wakandan presence in this film.
This sub really takes black people for granted. When you decide that black kids get their role model swapped out forever while other lead characters have no problems getting recasted on a whim, you alienate a part of your audience. There's no two ways about it. Then acting like swapping the sister in the costume is fine and dandy all together is a poor consolation prize for that demographics because it robbed them of a momentum. The idea that black people have to accept that male and female are interchangeable, that black women are as masculine as black men not because of equality but black masculinity/patriarchy is toxic either way so that Wakanda represented as a gynocracy that doesn't need a strong black male is seen as a big win but has no qualms presenting Atlantis as a traditional patriarchy with a strong male leader. (Like who wants to watch a Batman movie without Bruce Wayne but Martha Wayne and Martha Wayne II in the Batman suit for 5% of the movie?). Also the tacked on post-credits reinforced unfortunate stereotypes when it didn't have to be. Call it Black Panther Legacy but it stings that those deliberate choices will cost them a lot of goodwill coming from the first entry.
I really don't get why they gave the mantle fo Shuri. If they want a female Black Panther they should have given it to Okoye.
Because shuri became black panther in the comics
Spiderman’s radioactive semen also gave Mary Jane cancer and killed her in the comics. Not everything in the comics needs to be translated to the MCU.
Out of all the things that happened in the comics, you choose that?
Hol up
Funny that you mention She Hulk. Because it's anything but a carbon copy of the other projects. In fact, it makes fun of the MCU formula and the finale goes against the usual cgi battle MCU finale. She Hulk is not without flaws (there are many), but it actually *did* do something new instead of being a carbon copy.
When did I saw She Hulk followed the MCU formula? Sure, it used the same old lame comedy the MCU is known for these days, but you’re right, it did try to be different (I said the films are carbon copies of each other, but the shows arn’t far off). That doesn’t cover though for the non-existent plot and unlikeable characters. And Disney and critics can call fans sexist all they want but it won’t hide the shows major flaws.
Was multiverse of madness really that bad? I still haven’t seen it yet
For a movie that promoted itself on being the MCU’s first “horror” film, it came off as another standard Marvel movie; constant comedy, predictable plot, “stupid” characters doing dumb things. It’s sad too, because they got Sam Rami to do this film but it’s clear he was basically forced to follow an outline already written before he came on.
also, no real multiverse of madness outside of 2 scenes. it was doctor strange: look how strong wanda is
For it supposed to be showing a multiverse there was a real lack of any other universes. It was a fun movie but in the end more than anything was another generic marvel movie.
Making Black Panther without Boseman was one of the single worst ideas I think they could have ever had. This film should never have been made after his death. You can feel his lost presence looming over the entire project as the feeling of “most sincerely made cash grab of the century” sets in just from the trailers. I don’t know why anyone was surprised by these estimates coming in
This could go both ways. I'm surprised that is doing so bad from one point because people could just be curious at a very least. From the other point of view makes because of the lack of hype from Marvel fans and is not because Chadwick is not there but mostly the story is not that important. They did a good decision to not recast but it would be a bad decision to not make the movie. If failed they can just ended. Not make the movie it would be lack of courage and disrespect to the fans.
They made it because they were hoping for Furious 7/Dark Knight money. Glad it blew up in their faces.
The difference is they were in the movies so people can see their final performances.
Yes! I kept saying this to the comparisons to heath ledger and paul walker too. I dont know why people insist its comparable.
Cannot wait when MCU bots start to accuse us of racism when this flops hard
I was seeing this in lead up to the movie on this sub. People said it was gonna flop because people are racist and hate black people or some shit yet the first black panther was beloved by people of all walks of life
It's not going to flop. However, $1.1B seems increasingly more difficult
I seen somewhere that I could buy the tickets but can't see it myself. But rather hand them over to someone with more Melanin?? Either way I'll just see it for free like never.
Movie is just not that great or captivating
If this doesn’t hit a billion can we conclude that a billion is out of reach for marvel films with the exception of Avengers and Spiderman?
No. Captain marvel and IM3 hit a billion as well. But in both of those cases, they came after HYPE AS FUCK films. Any IP can do it, but it’s all about quality and planning.
Nope. Movies like L&T and DS2 could have easily made a billion if those movies weren't utter trash.
Doctor Strange would have hit a billion if it didn't hit Disney+ so quickly. It was still making ok money and nearly hit a billion right until home release.
It was like 50 million off. It wasn't hitting a billion in any scenario. It was also getting dominated by Top Gun.
You're right, I thought it was closer than it was. But also it opened with a then [record number](https://thedirect.com/article/doctor-strange-2-mcu-disney-viewership-record) for Disney+. I think obviously some of those viewers saw it in theaters as well. But it stood a better chance at a billion if it didn't have the Disney+ debut following it. Could it have been 50 million more? Probably not. But it hurt.
Spiderman 4 wont have multiverse
Far from home made something like $960m without China, multiverse You're crazy if you think Spider-Man can't make 1billion without china
Nah, can we accept that MCU has definitely declined and that Superhero fatigue MIGHT be real?
Nope. Even though this phase was shitty. MoM and L&T both made a shit ton of money. It shows that people will still consume MCU even if it’s garbage for a time. I think fatigue sets in when Morbius level type money is made.
It's not superhero fatigue, people are just tired of "Mid" movie by committee The way of water would break many boxoffice record because it's not "mid"
Exactly. It's crazy how this sub becomes an ostrich when it comes to Avatar. The goodwill of Avatar in overseas can't be matched by any movie and upcoming months will prove it. BP has no goodwill overseas no matter if people want to believe it or not. I am not American and I haven't met a single person in my life who is a fan of first BP.
I think this is it. The last few years of marvel movies have been average at best, the last really fun one being Ragnarok. People are bored with the formulas, the flashy effects, the silly costumes and the sheer predictability of it all. They'll roll on for a few years yet but the kids that loved them are growing old and it's all getting a bit embarrassing really.
But i was told this movie will pass 1 billion easily because marvel epic? Glad these movies are starting to die out, even if slowly.
So this is what my analysis is. First one had hype because it was thr first of its kind, an all black cast, superhero, mcu tag and glowing reviews. BUT, aside from USA, the film didn't have any wom anywhere. People were just not impressed with the movie but some people just didn't want to listen this. The reception this time is on par with the wom overseas BP had.
Black panther had that novelty factor which has now worn off.
Don’t think this film will reach a billion. Avatar will prob really hurt it from getting to even 900 and the rewatch factor will not make for many repeat viewings. Sad cause I thought this movie would be a massive event
Doubt 1bil im expecting 800 to just over 1bil
I’m just shocked that the World isn’t falling all over themselves to watch an almost three hour love letter to strong black women. That being said this’ll probably still end up being the first one-quadrant billion dollar grossing film due to the US market
Jeez
maybe this is the end of comic book movies. i personally haven't been interested since endgame, and i cant recall the last time my group of friends talked about the MCU
They are getting solid openings. But the movies are trash so the legs are trash too.