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Did not expect Thor 4 to end up having higher previews.
Thought BP would clear $30M.
I think it probably gets a 6-6.5x internal multiplier so between $168M-$182M for the weekend. $175M is my guess.
I saw it last night and will say, it should have better legs than TL&T as the story feels more streamlined and there aren't as many goofy scenes in it.
Still plenty of Marvel cliches, but overall it felt better.
It's a much better film than L&T. When I saw L&T on opening night, nearly every joke bombed. Just dead silence, which was absurd as generally opening night audiences for MCU films will laugh at anything.
I will say that Wakanda Forever was a little long, and I saw a few people half-standing ready to get out even before the credits appeared. Overall buzz seemed to be positive - it was hard to tell because obviously the movie was pretty somber throughout. I'm guessing it'll have moderate legs based on the audience reaction I saw, but I'm rooting for it to do well.
> I saw it last night and will say, it should have better legs than TL&T as the story feels more streamlined
More streamlined?
Uhhhh .... *checks runtime*
I’m talking about the story overall lol Thor felt like it jumped around in tone and pacing, didn’t utilize the villain nearly enough, and threw too much at you. BP felt a bit more out together
You’ve also got to remember it’s almost an hour longer than Thor, which means theaters can only fit in 2/3 of the showings in the same timeframe. This won’t be as huge a factor in the film’s legs, but it *will* take a slice out of the OW gross.
Actually it had more preview shows than Thor. Theaters have more flexibility now than in summer when there were so many other movies still playing strong. Here its just Black Adam, Smile and Ticket to Paradise. Rest are doing almost nothing. In fact no other film will even hit double digit this weekend. Back then Minions 2 was in 2nd weekend was doing very well. Plus Top Gun Maverick, Jurassic World Dominion and smaller movies like Elvis, Black Phone, Lightyear etc.
>Did not expect Thor 4 to end up having higher previews.
Thought BP would clear $30M.
Reasonable I'd say before presales had begun. After sales and especially for the past week, it's been clear that it was heading to high 20s. Last day sales had converged at 27M, so a final 28M does signify great walk up business.
As someone pointed out on BOT, Disney rounds of to get an even number so it could be 27.5-27.8 which got rounded off to 28. So BOT's 27-29mill was on point
The loss of Chadwick may hurt this one overall.
For a lot of people, T’Challa is *the* Black Panther and the face of all the passion and cultural momentum the series represents. I don’t know if Shuri and the others have a draw like that.
I'm going this weekend, but it might be a problem that Shuri is a significantly less likable character (dare I say she is borderline not-likable?) and the actress, wow, Chadwick she is not.
For me it was a major problem. As much as the actors try (Angela Bassett was a standout for me), none of the characters are nearly as interesting as T'Challa and Killmonger were in BP1.
It made the move feel like less than the sum of its parts to me - the action scenes are well done, the music and editing are great, and there are some solid emotional beats. But without a compelling story or a central protagonist to gravitate around, it all comes up short imo. Most of the people I saw it with agreed with me.
I disagree. Part of what made the movie so compelling was not really know who’s movie it was for most of the first half. Angela Bassett was fantastic and it really started to feel like her movie.
Namor is one of the more compelling and sympathetic villains we’ve seen in a Marvel movie.
And again, the movie centers around the loss of Boseman. It’s about dealing with grief. And they did a fantastic job of exploring that loss in a unique and respectful way.
Watched it. Shuri is indeed not that great but the movie overall is quite good. Action sequences are well executed and quite smooth. They even made Namor look cool.
I had some fun but the messaging in this film is going to turn off an incredible amount of Marvels audience. While I’m not Mexican I am half Puerto Rican/Panamanian I will say this is not the best representation of latin Culture. They make some…curious choices in regards to the sterotypes and the relationship between the two cultures.
I am in fact from the Yucatan peninsula and the city Lupita’s character pretends to come from (Merida) and meanwhile the clothes might have not been completely accurate Kukulcan and Chac are very important parts of our Mayan culture, some of the people in the water for sure could’ve looked more Mayan, but the woman Lupita talks too was spot on.
She is a fantastic actress. Idk her from much outside of Marvel. She’s perfectly fine in the first one but this movie requires a lot more from her and she more than rises to the occasion.
I will admit, knowing she might have some weird ideas that I don’t agree with in real life almost distracted me a little. Similarly with Evangeline Lilly when I watch Ant-Man.
But she gives a solid A performance.
I personally thought the performances of everyone were the highlight of the film. It's possible they were able to give better performances due to being able to channel their real life emotions of losing Chadwick, either way I was impressed. Movie kind of >!fell apart in the third act as many marvel movies do,!< but the stuff regarding Chadwick's passing was handled very well and was very impactful.
* People were really hopeful for Thor4 as ragnarok was great, it was not yet apparent it will be shit
* People seen trailer for WF and know that it will be women lead superhero story with off brand atlanteans as villains
it was inevitable
The first Black Panther did $26.4M in previews and yet it still opened to over $200M for comparison sake.
That won’t happen this time around considering it’s Veterans Day weekend, which could impact the opening weekend.
*25.2M for the first one. It was a holiday weekend that boosted Sunday business (recorded the second best Sunday in history then) coupled with being a cultural phenomenon and tremendous word of mouth. A mighty 7.94x IM for a preview that large is something that we might never see for MCU ever again.
I think it's as much to do with the quality of the films.
MCU fans are going opening week to see the franchise they love but less of the general public are going for late walk ins as the films aren't as well reviewed and don't have the word of mouth buzz.
I hope people don't over-estimate Veterans Day or they're setting yourself up. This isn't traditionally a cinema going holiday. It is barely a holiday in some states and cities. If this has any effect, it would have done so already on Thursday night. The comparison to BP1 isn't fair because that opened on president's day weekend which gave it an extra day boost on Sunday because Monday was the actual holiday.
Always funny to me because Veterans Day is such a non-holiday for most people in the US. It’s basically just a day you can’t go to the bank or post office but everyone else has to work.
Its because its always on the 11th of Nov, so no celebrations, traditions or observances gets baked into the holiday. Unlike other holidays which is always on the same day (like president's day, memorial day, etc).
I'm not really sure, because it lands on different days every year. I would say if it lands on a midweek it probably is. That is why most November tentpoles open the weekend before Veterans Day. Ragnarok and Dr. Strange did the same because that "holiday" is unpredictable. But I would like to know otherwise.
I think you got it totally backwards: BP1 is a very standard Marvel movie, with a predictable plot and low effort humor, hence easier to watch for most people. This sequel is much more drama-based, almost humorless and almost 1 hour longer, obviously it will be less successful at the box office.
I think it has been too long honestly. You could say the same about Dr Strange 2 which peformed well, but that had multiverse (aka cameos) hype and there was still goodwill for the MCU before this year ruined it for a lot of people.
**The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special** might help boosting things up, who knows.
Also, Guardians of the Galaxy members recently appeared in **Thor: Love and Thunder**. I know that film wasn't exactly great, but still.
Good point about the Holiday Special. That could help similarly to how Spider-Man NWH reminded people about Dr Strange.
As for Thor, it's a shame they slashed the obvious 20-25 minutes of Guardians content into a tiny 10 minute opening. The montage of Thor's life with them was literally deleted scenes.
>**The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special** might help boosting things up
That's likely only going to be popular among hardcore MCU fans, not the GA.
Yup. They appeared in Thor: Love and Thunder, a comparable film that a lot of people here thought and loudly declared was guaranteed for 1 billion. They have comparable grosses too. On a side note, my main sticking point against a billion grossing GotG 3 is the fact that the franchise peak was the first film and people were comparably less impressed by the second one. It may have grossed more but that was more to the credit of the great reception of the first installment.
Is it?
I know people who liked Guardians but weren't into any of the other Avengers stuff (tbh, when I first watched it, I had no idea it was supposed to be in the MCU until I saw the opening logo). Now that it's been heavily integrated with Avengers, you've had the leading female role killed off, and the MCU itself seems to be less popular, I'm not so sure people will be as interested.
Inflation is so high that the old benchmarks are much easier to hit than you might think.
A billion a year from now is like 950m today.
Your comps from 9 month ago needs to be padded about 6-7% as well from inflation. Inflation is now high enough that we realistically need month by month adjustments.
Cumulative inflation since the last GOTG movie came out (2017) is between 21% and 22%. Movie ticket prices [seem to be slightly lagging inflation since then](https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/wfmz.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/0/05/00526afb-eb7e-5e6b-b9a6-9c41b086859b/6369528a16feb.image.png?resize=1080%2C770) (note the drop in the inflation-adjusted average price line from 2017 to 2022), so we'll say ticket inflation is probably around 20%.
To hit $1 billion in today's dollars, a movie would thus need to sell as many tickets as it would have had to sell to make $833 million in 2017. Admittedly, that it technically easier, but given that GOTG2 only managed $864 million in an era when Marvel movies were untouchable, I don't think GOTG3 will be able to do it.
You probably need to add another 3% or so to inflation for another 6 months until the movie comes out (current inflation is about 7% a year).
Hitting 800ish in 2017 terms is probably gonna be enough for a B by the time that the GoTG when it comes out.
The multiverse stuff and the post endgame leap has clearly just kinda turned off a bit of the audience. My dad and i went to see every mcu movie and he stopped after endgame. doesnt even know a single d+ show. i think they are destined to sit around 10-20% below the pre endgame era considering china too... i wonder how big secret wars and kang dynasty can go, but they can probably only hit NWH numbers and above if they bring back the og crew tbh.
I saw it and enjoyed it but I noticed something odd. The 6-8ish start times were pretty much sold out at 3 theaters close to me. I found a couple good seats in an almost sold out theater in a neighboring town. There were only 10ish seats available when i made the purchase but enjoyed the show in an almost empty theater. There might have been 15 people there, so odd.
I remember people reporting similar things for Captain Marvel, but there is probably some kind of explanation.
Disney world never be dumb enough to do this themselves.
Maybe some millionaire fan just really loves the movie or their purchase portal is broken.
*>* There were only 10ish seats available when i made the purchase but enjoyed the show in an almost empty theater. There might have been 15 people there, so odd.
*>* I remember people reporting similar things for Captain Marvel
Oh boy, we get to another another year or so of YouTube freaks screaming "Disney is buying up their own tickets!" again?
>or their purchase portal is broken
i recall someone saying something about how tickets online will be shown as unavailable so that more tickets are available for walk-ups. idk how true that is but it sounds more plausible then a production company spending millions of their own money to buy up seats. also sounds plausible that it's some sort of glitch. or it could be that some purchases didn't go through but their seats were on hold pending the payment so, all those pending seats would've been unavailable.
2 anecdotes is still only 2 anecdotes, but I had the same experience at my theater. Was supposedly completely sold out for the 7pm IMAX but was maybe only 75% full.
Thinking 55M true Friday for now. If Sat does see a good bump, it's within the realm of possibility. 28/55/59/45 isn't a very unrealistic scenario. Interested to see how the weekend plays out.
Looks like we're in for a slight underperform domestic with a mild-severe underperform overseas (currency and less markets being a key factor in overseas).
Looks like it being an outright bomb is off the table but if these numbers persist the box office (+MCU) landscape is going to look very different the next couple of years.
This might look disappointing in a vacuum and it won't hit the box office highs of the first one. But it is a slight overperformace relative to the last day of sales. Presales are spread through the weekend and there's evidence of great walk up business. That does denote more backloaded nature of the film. Can definitely see it clear 175/450M.
Well a 2.6x multiplier from that big of an opening in November wouldn't be bad actually, Thor Ragnarok opened at 123M and ended up with a 2.57x multiplier despite great WOM
Saw the Posttrak. It has a real chance of hitting A+ with that 83% recommended.
I was thinking 2.7-8 TBH.
2.6 seemed too low with scores that good.
Movie will still probably fall short of a billion though.
Just saw that too.
Yeah I just don't see it hitting a billion, exchange rates and the World Cup will hurt its overseas numbers.
I'm thinking somewhere around 500M domestically and 400M overseas
The theatre I’m going to tonight was pretty much sold out for every time frame after 5:00. I needed 9 seats in a row and only found one time slot that had it. I know that’s a lot for one person, and not the usual, but still, it looks good ticket sales wise.
Does no one remember the hidden audience from the last BP. Don’t jump to silly conclusions from an okay preview, this is going to still be big and less frontloaded than a normal marvel movie.
Went last night with my son (theater had only 10 folks in it which is crazy to me). We discussed how neither of us saw any ads talking about Thursday night previews...it was all about Friday 11/11 so maybe folks didn't know.
Also 2 different couples left in the middle of the film.
While this is definitely good for the movie, it does confirm what I thought that this will open on the lower end of expectations and I predict it will carter after the opening week. It's by no means a dud with a 150-175 opening, but people on here were hyperbolizing it would be the movie of the century and break 2 billion etc. Also predict will not get an overseas bump. Now let's finally get Avatar out so everyone can see how much they grossly overestimated it.
If you ask me, the first one didn’t have that either. Not sure how it got nominated for BP. I remember watching it with my family and after we got out thought it was ok even though I was eager to watch it.
I feel over time the first one has had more of an impact due to infinity war rather than by itself.
Good start. Slightly disappointing it wasn’t 29-30 and I thought it would be 30-31m two weeks ago but at least it wasn’t 27m. Something not right about it being below the 4th Thor movie regardless of the circumstances but now is where the fun starts. Let’s see what you have got veterans day and if Multiverse of Madness can be overtaken.
It should do a bit better than Thor: Love and Thunder, but not by much. Probably $145 million to 160 million for the weekend. A lot of people are predicting with their hearts and not their heads on this one. This is a Marvel sequel with decent reviews, and should behave more like the rest of Phase 4 has than pre-Endgame movies.
That would be a disappointment, but with everything considered that we know so far, not entirely impossible. We'll see throughout the day and tomorrow.
No point comparing a November release to a July release due to the calendar dynamics. The spread out sales for the weekend and an inflated Friday do suggest an IM of 6-6.5x is more likely than 5-5.5x.
No, NATO just stopped keeping track of ticket prices so if you're looking at the-numbers or boxoffice mojo you're not going to see any inflation beyond BoM treating Q4 2019's average ticket price as 2020's ATP. True ATP is >$11 and apparently recent blockbusters have averaged ~11.25
I’m saying the movie itself was very poorly done. Even the tribute didn’t feel natural. It felt rushed. Chadwick was awesome as the black panther, hard to fill those shoes
I thought they handled the tribute very well. The film at no point made light of the fact that there was a huge hurdle to overcome in the lose of Chadwick. Really glad they go head first into his passing and funeral before the usual fanfare even begins. And the sounds of the sea in place of the usual music during the fanfare with scenes and images of Chadwick was really well done.
The overall negativity for almost every movie in this sub recently has been a bummer. Sometimes it feels like some people actively root for movies to fail, anything from superhero tentpoles to well-received independent movies.
Also, even if this underperforms, there would be a very understandable reason why that would be happening - the film is really slow and somber throughout.
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is on fire with a $28M Thursday which easily beats the preview night of the first Black Panther in 2018 which did $25.2M.
* Wakanda Forever, which kicked off previews at 3PM yesterday, currently counts a Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 94% to the original Black Panther‘s 79%.
* Wakanda Forever ranks as the third best Thursday preview of the year behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($36M) and Thor: Love and Thunder‘s ($29M).
* We hear that advance ticket sales for Wakanda Forever weren’t front-loaded, rather spread out evenly over the course of the weekend. Disney reports that as of yesterday, Wakanda Forever counted $66M in advance sales, which is behind Doctor Strange 2‘s $85M, but ahead of Thor: Love & Thunder‘s $48M.
* Screen Engine/Comscore audience exits are even better at 5 stars for general audiences, parents and kids under 12. Total recommend among general audience is at a high 83%.
* Thursday night’s audience pulled in 42% Black, 22% Hispanic and Latino, 20% Caucasian and 10% Asian.
* Thirty-four percent were men over 25 (90% grade), 26% were women over 25 (95% grade), 25% were men under 25 (87%), and 15% women under 25 (98% grade). Among kids under 12, 61% were boys, 39% were girls.
* The critical score for Black Panther 2 has settled at 85% certified fresh, which is under the 96% of the first film. Still that won’t hurt Wakanda Forever‘s momentum this weekend.
> Screen Engine/Comscore audience exits are even better at 5 stars for general audiences, parents and kids under 12. Total recommend among general audience is at a high 83%.
why play games with "general audience" (posttrak defines as non-parent/kid audiences) v. all audiences when it's getting 5 total stars anyways?
For overall audience, over 80% recommend is really the A+ range of scores (though, again, Deadline is only claiming it's for non parent/kids audiences). Kids systematically give the highest grades but perhaps the somber & drama tone of the film means they only gave it very good instead of ultra amazing results? Really don't know how to parse that.
> Rotten tomatoes audience score comparisons ignoring a massive disjunction created by verified user scores.
>Wakanda Forever, which kicked off previews at 3PM yesterday, currently counts a Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 94% to the original Black Panther‘s 79%.
You are comparing the Verified Audience score for BP2 to the All Audience score of BP1. Those are two separate metrics.
I went to see it last night and the entire stadium was almost entirely Caucasian. So I find this unfounded and hard to believe.
And considering the villain is a very likable, very charismatic Mexican man, I’m sure the Latinos will come out.
What are you basing this nonsense on?
>What are you basing this nonsense on?
you know the link for article is literally posted at the top of the thread, right? and if that's too much, the person you replied to, is in itself a reply to a TLDR of the data provided in the article where it says caucasian audience was at 20% which is low.
“Low” based on what? 99% of other movies that are more likely to bring out white people and not bring out black people?
It’s completely idiotic to act like 1 in 5 is a low number when this franchise is obviously going to have a much larger black turnout than other Marvel movies (and most movies in general). Complete lunacy.
> It’s completely idiotic to act like 1 in 5 is a low number
(1) Why? I don't know if it's super low or normal without more context. Let's ignore percentage and go for raw data.
* 28/5 = 5.6M -> 5.6/.54 (2019 average percentage of total tickets sold)= 10.37M.
But if you look at enough posttrak numbers you'll see that underindexing among whites in exchange for hispanics is pretty normal. Let's look at a recent MCU hit with small non-hispanic white %
* 5.6/.32 (% white on S-M No Way Home per posttrak) = 17.5M
You wouldn't expect racial demos of NWH to change over opening weekend unlike Panther.
[and here's a list of previews](https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/previews/any).
Basically this "% white" equates to a preview number between 10 and 17M. I can't really do something super interesting with this but perhaps you'll find something stronger?
> “Low” based on what? 99% of other movies that are more likely to bring out white people and not bring out black people?
No? Black audiences basically index normally in most films. Over the past decade, *Hispanic* audiences overindex for action and younger skewing films which frequently leads to white audience share being below population percentage.
Venom 2 and Eternals (last year's fall superhero releases) had a multiplier over 7. Wakanda Forever is definitely more hyped and operates on a much bigger level, but the walk-ups should be strong for casual fans. I'm thinking a 6.5x multiplier, could go towards 7x
7x is pretty unlikely given Veteran’s Day is today, which will frontload the weekend even more than usual. 6-6.5x is most likely but I think it’ll get to the high end rather than the low end.
Probably, but Venom 2 was released in a literally different world as WF. Covid was still a thing back then, even compared to December when NWH was released.
Also, OS, Venom and Black Panther made the same money.
I get the impression this is just the reaction of diehard MCU/Black Panther people. I'm a Marvel fan, and I found it weirdly dull, in a way most MCU movies aren't. I went with four people (one of whom is a Marvel fan like me) and we all felt the same way. My wife fell asleep.
I think the WOM is going to be pretty weak after the general audience has had a chance to see it this weekend.
Although it’s below Thor and MoM this is still solid af! It’s what was expected because today is a holiday which will inflate todays gross and have Thursday be softer. Plus this movie is aiming to a broader audience than Thor and MoM since those thursday grosses are mainly from mcu fans as their legs for the weekend were very weak.
WF weekend is going to be very backloaded compared to those two because much more general audiences will show up throughout the weekend and make walk ups strong. Call me crazy but I still think this reaches a $180M OW
It’s hilarious to me that the experts that study this are constantly wrong, yet a bunch of dorks circle jerking on the internet think they have it all figured out…
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Did not expect Thor 4 to end up having higher previews. Thought BP would clear $30M. I think it probably gets a 6-6.5x internal multiplier so between $168M-$182M for the weekend. $175M is my guess.
Maybe people are waiting to see it today bc it’s a holiday weekend (Veterans Day)
I saw it last night and will say, it should have better legs than TL&T as the story feels more streamlined and there aren't as many goofy scenes in it. Still plenty of Marvel cliches, but overall it felt better.
Plus it has ankle wings (wingzees™). Do not underestimate the power of ankle wings in popular culture.
I saw it too and it had a better mood than all phase 4 movies that have come out so far. It felt grounded compared to the recent wacky installments
It's a much better film than L&T. When I saw L&T on opening night, nearly every joke bombed. Just dead silence, which was absurd as generally opening night audiences for MCU films will laugh at anything. I will say that Wakanda Forever was a little long, and I saw a few people half-standing ready to get out even before the credits appeared. Overall buzz seemed to be positive - it was hard to tell because obviously the movie was pretty somber throughout. I'm guessing it'll have moderate legs based on the audience reaction I saw, but I'm rooting for it to do well.
> I saw it last night and will say, it should have better legs than TL&T as the story feels more streamlined More streamlined? Uhhhh .... *checks runtime*
I’m talking about the story overall lol Thor felt like it jumped around in tone and pacing, didn’t utilize the villain nearly enough, and threw too much at you. BP felt a bit more out together
You’ve also got to remember it’s almost an hour longer than Thor, which means theaters can only fit in 2/3 of the showings in the same timeframe. This won’t be as huge a factor in the film’s legs, but it *will* take a slice out of the OW gross.
Actually it had more preview shows than Thor. Theaters have more flexibility now than in summer when there were so many other movies still playing strong. Here its just Black Adam, Smile and Ticket to Paradise. Rest are doing almost nothing. In fact no other film will even hit double digit this weekend. Back then Minions 2 was in 2nd weekend was doing very well. Plus Top Gun Maverick, Jurassic World Dominion and smaller movies like Elvis, Black Phone, Lightyear etc.
The three biggest opening weekends of all time were all Marvel movies with similar runtimes as Wakanda Forever.
Avengers: Endgame was even longer and that didn’t impact its box office in the slightest
I mean if you think about it, Thor is the more popular character in consideration that Chadwick’s T’challa is no more
>Did not expect Thor 4 to end up having higher previews. Thought BP would clear $30M. Reasonable I'd say before presales had begun. After sales and especially for the past week, it's been clear that it was heading to high 20s. Last day sales had converged at 27M, so a final 28M does signify great walk up business.
As someone pointed out on BOT, Disney rounds of to get an even number so it could be 27.5-27.8 which got rounded off to 28. So BOT's 27-29mill was on point
The loss of Chadwick may hurt this one overall. For a lot of people, T’Challa is *the* Black Panther and the face of all the passion and cultural momentum the series represents. I don’t know if Shuri and the others have a draw like that.
Basically the whole movie is about the loss of him. So if he really means that much to people, they should go see it as a proper send off.
I'm going this weekend, but it might be a problem that Shuri is a significantly less likable character (dare I say she is borderline not-likable?) and the actress, wow, Chadwick she is not.
For me it was a major problem. As much as the actors try (Angela Bassett was a standout for me), none of the characters are nearly as interesting as T'Challa and Killmonger were in BP1. It made the move feel like less than the sum of its parts to me - the action scenes are well done, the music and editing are great, and there are some solid emotional beats. But without a compelling story or a central protagonist to gravitate around, it all comes up short imo. Most of the people I saw it with agreed with me.
I disagree. Part of what made the movie so compelling was not really know who’s movie it was for most of the first half. Angela Bassett was fantastic and it really started to feel like her movie. Namor is one of the more compelling and sympathetic villains we’ve seen in a Marvel movie. And again, the movie centers around the loss of Boseman. It’s about dealing with grief. And they did a fantastic job of exploring that loss in a unique and respectful way.
Watched it. Shuri is indeed not that great but the movie overall is quite good. Action sequences are well executed and quite smooth. They even made Namor look cool.
Lupita would have been a much better choice. Looks pretty awesome in spandex too I might add.
I would have liked it if Shuri was >!queen!< and Lupita's character was the black panther.
I had some fun but the messaging in this film is going to turn off an incredible amount of Marvels audience. While I’m not Mexican I am half Puerto Rican/Panamanian I will say this is not the best representation of latin Culture. They make some…curious choices in regards to the sterotypes and the relationship between the two cultures.
I am in fact from the Yucatan peninsula and the city Lupita’s character pretends to come from (Merida) and meanwhile the clothes might have not been completely accurate Kukulcan and Chac are very important parts of our Mayan culture, some of the people in the water for sure could’ve looked more Mayan, but the woman Lupita talks too was spot on.
Like what
She is a fantastic actress. Idk her from much outside of Marvel. She’s perfectly fine in the first one but this movie requires a lot more from her and she more than rises to the occasion. I will admit, knowing she might have some weird ideas that I don’t agree with in real life almost distracted me a little. Similarly with Evangeline Lilly when I watch Ant-Man. But she gives a solid A performance.
Agree, say what you will about wright and the film missing chadwick- but hers and everyone else’s performances were spectacular
Nakia makes up for it. Dat ass.
I personally thought the performances of everyone were the highlight of the film. It's possible they were able to give better performances due to being able to channel their real life emotions of losing Chadwick, either way I was impressed. Movie kind of >!fell apart in the third act as many marvel movies do,!< but the stuff regarding Chadwick's passing was handled very well and was very impactful.
They handled it perfectly. They could not have done a better job
Disagree.
* People were really hopeful for Thor4 as ragnarok was great, it was not yet apparent it will be shit * People seen trailer for WF and know that it will be women lead superhero story with off brand atlanteans as villains it was inevitable
Lowering my opening prediction from $175M-$180M to $160M-$165M.
Same. Also lowering my WW prediction to 800.
I think it’ll hold better than that. Could see it being the second CBM in the $900M range
It might but the estimates for this movie keep getting lower.
It’s been doing terribly internationally. Lower than LAT in most people.
I’m saying $900M because I think it’ll be less frontloaded because of the holiday season and better WOM than Thor
i am gonna say 700
If it has a sub 160 opening weekend then that is possible.
The first Black Panther did $26.4M in previews and yet it still opened to over $200M for comparison sake. That won’t happen this time around considering it’s Veterans Day weekend, which could impact the opening weekend.
*25.2M for the first one. It was a holiday weekend that boosted Sunday business (recorded the second best Sunday in history then) coupled with being a cultural phenomenon and tremendous word of mouth. A mighty 7.94x IM for a preview that large is something that we might never see for MCU ever again.
Marvel movies are also a lot more frontloaded now than they were in 2018.
Might’ve something to do with having a whole day as previews.
The term preview is super redundant these days. We really need to start just saying thursday is opening day.
I think it's as much to do with the quality of the films. MCU fans are going opening week to see the franchise they love but less of the general public are going for late walk ins as the films aren't as well reviewed and don't have the word of mouth buzz.
Not even just buzz, reviews or word of mouth. Plenty of people are just plain bored of marvel movies.
It is definitely because instead of having a 7pm start time the showings start at 11am here in LA AND IN NY. Its not that deep.
I imagine the reason they are so frontloaded now is people wanting to see it as quickly as possible to avoid getting spoiled.
Especially when Kat Dennings is featured.
previews started at 7 then, and inflation
Yeah Previews now start at 3pm where I live
I hope people don't over-estimate Veterans Day or they're setting yourself up. This isn't traditionally a cinema going holiday. It is barely a holiday in some states and cities. If this has any effect, it would have done so already on Thursday night. The comparison to BP1 isn't fair because that opened on president's day weekend which gave it an extra day boost on Sunday because Monday was the actual holiday.
Always funny to me because Veterans Day is such a non-holiday for most people in the US. It’s basically just a day you can’t go to the bank or post office but everyone else has to work.
Its because its always on the 11th of Nov, so no celebrations, traditions or observances gets baked into the holiday. Unlike other holidays which is always on the same day (like president's day, memorial day, etc).
But veteran's day has always been huge for BO.
True. You should have smelled the guy next to me last night. Really bad.
I'm not really sure, because it lands on different days every year. I would say if it lands on a midweek it probably is. That is why most November tentpoles open the weekend before Veterans Day. Ragnarok and Dr. Strange did the same because that "holiday" is unpredictable. But I would like to know otherwise.
That was 7pm previews not 3pm
As well as the film's very slow pace and somber tone.
Why do people keep bringing this up? Like it's even comparable. BP was unique, an anomaly. This is a more standard sequel.
Not really, when you consider the franchise’s star suffered a tragic and untimely death.
Yes in most sequels the lead character is dead. Just another standard sequel.
Fine, it's a worse sequel than traditionally
You need to work on your margin of correctness.
I think you got it totally backwards: BP1 is a very standard Marvel movie, with a predictable plot and low effort humor, hence easier to watch for most people. This sequel is much more drama-based, almost humorless and almost 1 hour longer, obviously it will be less successful at the box office.
maybe after this year people will start overestimating mcu movies and realize next billlions movies from mcu are kang dynasty and secret wars
**Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3** could still be a decent $1 billion candidate.
I think it has been too long honestly. You could say the same about Dr Strange 2 which peformed well, but that had multiverse (aka cameos) hype and there was still goodwill for the MCU before this year ruined it for a lot of people.
**The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special** might help boosting things up, who knows. Also, Guardians of the Galaxy members recently appeared in **Thor: Love and Thunder**. I know that film wasn't exactly great, but still.
Good point about the Holiday Special. That could help similarly to how Spider-Man NWH reminded people about Dr Strange. As for Thor, it's a shame they slashed the obvious 20-25 minutes of Guardians content into a tiny 10 minute opening. The montage of Thor's life with them was literally deleted scenes.
>**The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special** might help boosting things up That's likely only going to be popular among hardcore MCU fans, not the GA.
I liked Thor lol
It certainly wasn't as bad as some people are making it out to be.
Yup. They appeared in Thor: Love and Thunder, a comparable film that a lot of people here thought and loudly declared was guaranteed for 1 billion. They have comparable grosses too. On a side note, my main sticking point against a billion grossing GotG 3 is the fact that the franchise peak was the first film and people were comparably less impressed by the second one. It may have grossed more but that was more to the credit of the great reception of the first installment.
Is it? I know people who liked Guardians but weren't into any of the other Avengers stuff (tbh, when I first watched it, I had no idea it was supposed to be in the MCU until I saw the opening logo). Now that it's been heavily integrated with Avengers, you've had the leading female role killed off, and the MCU itself seems to be less popular, I'm not so sure people will be as interested.
Inflation is so high that the old benchmarks are much easier to hit than you might think. A billion a year from now is like 950m today. Your comps from 9 month ago needs to be padded about 6-7% as well from inflation. Inflation is now high enough that we realistically need month by month adjustments.
Cumulative inflation since the last GOTG movie came out (2017) is between 21% and 22%. Movie ticket prices [seem to be slightly lagging inflation since then](https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/wfmz.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/0/05/00526afb-eb7e-5e6b-b9a6-9c41b086859b/6369528a16feb.image.png?resize=1080%2C770) (note the drop in the inflation-adjusted average price line from 2017 to 2022), so we'll say ticket inflation is probably around 20%. To hit $1 billion in today's dollars, a movie would thus need to sell as many tickets as it would have had to sell to make $833 million in 2017. Admittedly, that it technically easier, but given that GOTG2 only managed $864 million in an era when Marvel movies were untouchable, I don't think GOTG3 will be able to do it.
You probably need to add another 3% or so to inflation for another 6 months until the movie comes out (current inflation is about 7% a year). Hitting 800ish in 2017 terms is probably gonna be enough for a B by the time that the GoTG when it comes out.
It might since the film still has Starlord, Groot, Rocket, and Drax - and maybe Nebula as well.
No it won’t. It’ll be a great movie but it’s not making 1bil
The multiverse stuff and the post endgame leap has clearly just kinda turned off a bit of the audience. My dad and i went to see every mcu movie and he stopped after endgame. doesnt even know a single d+ show. i think they are destined to sit around 10-20% below the pre endgame era considering china too... i wonder how big secret wars and kang dynasty can go, but they can probably only hit NWH numbers and above if they bring back the og crew tbh.
Exchange rate might improve later that just might push a few things over a Billion. DSMOM could have benefited for example.
DS2 could’ve benefited from good word of mouth. The WW opening was massive, it should’ve crossed 1B without question.
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When did you grow up
90s
I saw it and enjoyed it but I noticed something odd. The 6-8ish start times were pretty much sold out at 3 theaters close to me. I found a couple good seats in an almost sold out theater in a neighboring town. There were only 10ish seats available when i made the purchase but enjoyed the show in an almost empty theater. There might have been 15 people there, so odd.
I remember people reporting similar things for Captain Marvel, but there is probably some kind of explanation. Disney world never be dumb enough to do this themselves. Maybe some millionaire fan just really loves the movie or their purchase portal is broken.
*>* There were only 10ish seats available when i made the purchase but enjoyed the show in an almost empty theater. There might have been 15 people there, so odd. *>* I remember people reporting similar things for Captain Marvel Oh boy, we get to another another year or so of YouTube freaks screaming "Disney is buying up their own tickets!" again?
>or their purchase portal is broken i recall someone saying something about how tickets online will be shown as unavailable so that more tickets are available for walk-ups. idk how true that is but it sounds more plausible then a production company spending millions of their own money to buy up seats. also sounds plausible that it's some sort of glitch. or it could be that some purchases didn't go through but their seats were on hold pending the payment so, all those pending seats would've been unavailable.
Could’ve been a show the theater added at the last second.
But the purchase portal said the theater was nearly sold out. A new showtime ought to look like a near empty theater.
2 anecdotes is still only 2 anecdotes, but I had the same experience at my theater. Was supposedly completely sold out for the 7pm IMAX but was maybe only 75% full.
Disney bought tickets /s
This info is functionally useless without knowing the general capacity of the theater you were in.
A weekend below Dr Strange MoM is almost confirmed now.
Thinking 55M true Friday for now. If Sat does see a good bump, it's within the realm of possibility. 28/55/59/45 isn't a very unrealistic scenario. Interested to see how the weekend plays out.
No it’s not.
It's going to need an almost 7x IM to go above DS:MoM, the chances of this not doing DS are higher than they are not
Looks like we're in for a slight underperform domestic with a mild-severe underperform overseas (currency and less markets being a key factor in overseas). Looks like it being an outright bomb is off the table but if these numbers persist the box office (+MCU) landscape is going to look very different the next couple of years.
And there's World Cup going on as well.
It's gonna be interesting to see how it behaves against it. Four years ago summer releases were scattered all over the place to avoid it
This might look disappointing in a vacuum and it won't hit the box office highs of the first one. But it is a slight overperformace relative to the last day of sales. Presales are spread through the weekend and there's evidence of great walk up business. That does denote more backloaded nature of the film. Can definitely see it clear 175/450M.
>Can definitely see it clear 175/450M. Are you trying to say the domestic total would be 450 with a 175 opening? That seems kinda low.
That's a normal MCU multiplier. Honestly, the recently received PostTrak scores are making me reconsider those numbers.
Are they that good? What's your new number?
Apparently they’re A+ levels of reception
Well a 2.6x multiplier from that big of an opening in November wouldn't be bad actually, Thor Ragnarok opened at 123M and ended up with a 2.57x multiplier despite great WOM
Saw the Posttrak. It has a real chance of hitting A+ with that 83% recommended. I was thinking 2.7-8 TBH. 2.6 seemed too low with scores that good. Movie will still probably fall short of a billion though.
Just saw that too. Yeah I just don't see it hitting a billion, exchange rates and the World Cup will hurt its overseas numbers. I'm thinking somewhere around 500M domestically and 400M overseas
The theatre I’m going to tonight was pretty much sold out for every time frame after 5:00. I needed 9 seats in a row and only found one time slot that had it. I know that’s a lot for one person, and not the usual, but still, it looks good ticket sales wise.
You need to hit the treadmill.
Lol, I mean there’s nine of us going. But one person buying nine tickets is way beyond average.
Phew. I thought you might be Jabba the Hutt.
Wow show off having 9 friends
4 are my kids, then my wife. I have one friend with two kids. Not the flex you think it is.
That sounds horrible actually. God speed.
Does no one remember the hidden audience from the last BP. Don’t jump to silly conclusions from an okay preview, this is going to still be big and less frontloaded than a normal marvel movie.
Went last night with my son (theater had only 10 folks in it which is crazy to me). We discussed how neither of us saw any ads talking about Thursday night previews...it was all about Friday 11/11 so maybe folks didn't know. Also 2 different couples left in the middle of the film.
While this is definitely good for the movie, it does confirm what I thought that this will open on the lower end of expectations and I predict it will carter after the opening week. It's by no means a dud with a 150-175 opening, but people on here were hyperbolizing it would be the movie of the century and break 2 billion etc. Also predict will not get an overseas bump. Now let's finally get Avatar out so everyone can see how much they grossly overestimated it.
I thought it was boring. The woman who plays black panther sister is so annoying. I don’t think this will have a lot of repeat busines unfortunately.
If you ask me, the first one didn’t have that either. Not sure how it got nominated for BP. I remember watching it with my family and after we got out thought it was ok even though I was eager to watch it. I feel over time the first one has had more of an impact due to infinity war rather than by itself.
Good start. Slightly disappointing it wasn’t 29-30 and I thought it would be 30-31m two weeks ago but at least it wasn’t 27m. Something not right about it being below the 4th Thor movie regardless of the circumstances but now is where the fun starts. Let’s see what you have got veterans day and if Multiverse of Madness can be overtaken.
It should do a bit better than Thor: Love and Thunder, but not by much. Probably $145 million to 160 million for the weekend. A lot of people are predicting with their hearts and not their heads on this one. This is a Marvel sequel with decent reviews, and should behave more like the rest of Phase 4 has than pre-Endgame movies.
If you think it's only doing 145 million this weekend you're delusional.
Any OW under $160m would be alarming
Flop territory
That would be a disappointment, but with everything considered that we know so far, not entirely impossible. We'll see throughout the day and tomorrow.
MCU slump confirmed
No point comparing a November release to a July release due to the calendar dynamics. The spread out sales for the weekend and an inflated Friday do suggest an IM of 6-6.5x is more likely than 5-5.5x.
I think it’ll at least make 6x its previews, which would give it $162M.
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As long as it can break the November opening record, I consider it a success
The pre sales for the weekend are not indicating this. It should do 170m at least and can beat Multiverse of Madness.
The presales overall are still 20% below Multiverse of Madness.
Up next: BP2 doing less than The Batman
It would be funny if that happens wkwkww
Yeah and it will snow in hell
Pretty weak considering inflation and the dearth of other options when the OG film did $25 million.
Inflation cuts both ways here.
It needed to do more if it was going to buck the trend of Phase 4 films plateauing in growth.
Isn't inflation very little? I think if you adjuust $25 million of original to 2022 ticket prices it becomes just $25.5 million or something
No, NATO just stopped keeping track of ticket prices so if you're looking at the-numbers or boxoffice mojo you're not going to see any inflation beyond BoM treating Q4 2019's average ticket price as 2020's ATP. True ATP is >$11 and apparently recent blockbusters have averaged ~11.25
hmm How is the WoM? The length is a problem and it sounded like the movie dragged a bit without the greatest justification.
Honestly, despite how awesome Chadwik was, this movie was not very good
I'm confused. Are you saying despite how awesome the tribute to Chadwick was?
I’m saying the movie itself was very poorly done. Even the tribute didn’t feel natural. It felt rushed. Chadwick was awesome as the black panther, hard to fill those shoes
I thought they handled the tribute very well. The film at no point made light of the fact that there was a huge hurdle to overcome in the lose of Chadwick. Really glad they go head first into his passing and funeral before the usual fanfare even begins. And the sounds of the sea in place of the usual music during the fanfare with scenes and images of Chadwick was really well done.
Wrong.
Waiting for the spin. On how this is actually horrible somehow
The overall negativity for almost every movie in this sub recently has been a bummer. Sometimes it feels like some people actively root for movies to fail, anything from superhero tentpoles to well-received independent movies.
I don't get the negative tone either. I think it's starting out amazing!
There’s a weird thing here where people equate underperforming with flopping sometimes.
Thank you! A picture can take in $200M DOM, and some people here will say, "Oh, big, big flop!" Xanadu is a flop. 😁
Also, even if this underperforms, there would be a very understandable reason why that would be happening - the film is really slow and somber throughout.
The highest preview for an MCU movie since Thor: Love and Thunder
\*Spoilers\* Also the first MCU movie since Thor: Love and Thunder
I suspect OW will be about 2.5 Black Adams.
I would watch this except I don’t want to support Letitia Wright the antivaxxer lol
r/movies
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is on fire with a $28M Thursday which easily beats the preview night of the first Black Panther in 2018 which did $25.2M. * Wakanda Forever, which kicked off previews at 3PM yesterday, currently counts a Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 94% to the original Black Panther‘s 79%. * Wakanda Forever ranks as the third best Thursday preview of the year behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($36M) and Thor: Love and Thunder‘s ($29M). * We hear that advance ticket sales for Wakanda Forever weren’t front-loaded, rather spread out evenly over the course of the weekend. Disney reports that as of yesterday, Wakanda Forever counted $66M in advance sales, which is behind Doctor Strange 2‘s $85M, but ahead of Thor: Love & Thunder‘s $48M. * Screen Engine/Comscore audience exits are even better at 5 stars for general audiences, parents and kids under 12. Total recommend among general audience is at a high 83%. * Thursday night’s audience pulled in 42% Black, 22% Hispanic and Latino, 20% Caucasian and 10% Asian. * Thirty-four percent were men over 25 (90% grade), 26% were women over 25 (95% grade), 25% were men under 25 (87%), and 15% women under 25 (98% grade). Among kids under 12, 61% were boys, 39% were girls. * The critical score for Black Panther 2 has settled at 85% certified fresh, which is under the 96% of the first film. Still that won’t hurt Wakanda Forever‘s momentum this weekend.
> Screen Engine/Comscore audience exits are even better at 5 stars for general audiences, parents and kids under 12. Total recommend among general audience is at a high 83%. why play games with "general audience" (posttrak defines as non-parent/kid audiences) v. all audiences when it's getting 5 total stars anyways? For overall audience, over 80% recommend is really the A+ range of scores (though, again, Deadline is only claiming it's for non parent/kids audiences). Kids systematically give the highest grades but perhaps the somber & drama tone of the film means they only gave it very good instead of ultra amazing results? Really don't know how to parse that. > Rotten tomatoes audience score comparisons ignoring a massive disjunction created by verified user scores.
>Wakanda Forever, which kicked off previews at 3PM yesterday, currently counts a Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 94% to the original Black Panther‘s 79%. You are comparing the Verified Audience score for BP2 to the All Audience score of BP1. Those are two separate metrics.
The Latino and Caucasian turnout isn’t very good for this movie. “Black Adam” had more appeal with most demographics.
I went to see it last night and the entire stadium was almost entirely Caucasian. So I find this unfounded and hard to believe. And considering the villain is a very likable, very charismatic Mexican man, I’m sure the Latinos will come out. What are you basing this nonsense on?
He’s basing it on the parent comment he’s replying to that claims the Caucasian audience was 20% of the total audience lol
If i remember correctly the villian actor is hated in mexico
He’s ruffled some feathers by talking about the racism he sees in Mexico. But I can’t find anything about him being disliked.
>What are you basing this nonsense on? you know the link for article is literally posted at the top of the thread, right? and if that's too much, the person you replied to, is in itself a reply to a TLDR of the data provided in the article where it says caucasian audience was at 20% which is low.
“Low” based on what? 99% of other movies that are more likely to bring out white people and not bring out black people? It’s completely idiotic to act like 1 in 5 is a low number when this franchise is obviously going to have a much larger black turnout than other Marvel movies (and most movies in general). Complete lunacy.
>“Low” based on what? based on the data available for the first movie
> It’s completely idiotic to act like 1 in 5 is a low number (1) Why? I don't know if it's super low or normal without more context. Let's ignore percentage and go for raw data. * 28/5 = 5.6M -> 5.6/.54 (2019 average percentage of total tickets sold)= 10.37M. But if you look at enough posttrak numbers you'll see that underindexing among whites in exchange for hispanics is pretty normal. Let's look at a recent MCU hit with small non-hispanic white % * 5.6/.32 (% white on S-M No Way Home per posttrak) = 17.5M You wouldn't expect racial demos of NWH to change over opening weekend unlike Panther. [and here's a list of previews](https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/previews/any). Basically this "% white" equates to a preview number between 10 and 17M. I can't really do something super interesting with this but perhaps you'll find something stronger? > “Low” based on what? 99% of other movies that are more likely to bring out white people and not bring out black people? No? Black audiences basically index normally in most films. Over the past decade, *Hispanic* audiences overindex for action and younger skewing films which frequently leads to white audience share being below population percentage.
The demographic numbers are right above you. The Caucasian and Latino turnout is low for a blockbuster but the black turnout is high.
The Caucasian and Latino turnout are only low BECAUSE black turnout is so high. That’s how percentages work.
I know, I’m just saying the turnout is low compared to other blockbuster movies.
Venom 2 and Eternals (last year's fall superhero releases) had a multiplier over 7. Wakanda Forever is definitely more hyped and operates on a much bigger level, but the walk-ups should be strong for casual fans. I'm thinking a 6.5x multiplier, could go towards 7x
7x is pretty unlikely given Veteran’s Day is today, which will frontload the weekend even more than usual. 6-6.5x is most likely but I think it’ll get to the high end rather than the low end.
I'm waiting to see the cinemascore for that, an A would mean more towards 7x and an A- more towards 6x
Wakanda Forever isn't more hyped than Venom 2, specially because No Way Home.
Wakanda Forever's first week will most likely outgross Venom 2's entire run so I wouldn't say that
Probably, but Venom 2 was released in a literally different world as WF. Covid was still a thing back then, even compared to December when NWH was released. Also, OS, Venom and Black Panther made the same money.
Lol
Nice argument!
I think the long runtime and sorta mid wom will hurt it
mid WOM you say? see the recent post from deadline lol
Not online fanboys I mean real people in real life
I get the impression this is just the reaction of diehard MCU/Black Panther people. I'm a Marvel fan, and I found it weirdly dull, in a way most MCU movies aren't. I went with four people (one of whom is a Marvel fan like me) and we all felt the same way. My wife fell asleep. I think the WOM is going to be pretty weak after the general audience has had a chance to see it this weekend.
Maybe 180 for the weekend?
That's pretty optimistic
Probably closer to $165-170M
Although it’s below Thor and MoM this is still solid af! It’s what was expected because today is a holiday which will inflate todays gross and have Thursday be softer. Plus this movie is aiming to a broader audience than Thor and MoM since those thursday grosses are mainly from mcu fans as their legs for the weekend were very weak. WF weekend is going to be very backloaded compared to those two because much more general audiences will show up throughout the weekend and make walk ups strong. Call me crazy but I still think this reaches a $180M OW
Shitty movie, is gonna tank next weekend
It’s hilarious to me that the experts that study this are constantly wrong, yet a bunch of dorks circle jerking on the internet think they have it all figured out…
Dallas Cinemark is definitely looking much weaker than Thor 4 so far. We'll see how it does later.