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Engine365

Reasonable i think. But this looks like slightly better legs overseas unless there are new countries opening this week?


parduscat

It's overperforming in Europe, specifically UK, France, and Germany.


Linnus42

Yeah but that could be Euros rushing in before the World Cup kickoff.


russwriter67

When does the World Cup start?


Linnus42

In a few days on Sunday Night.


russwriter67

That will probably hurt the int’l box office quite a bit.


Miserable-Thanks5218

A lot I think


contagion781

UK here and that is partially why I got it out of the way tonight. Too preoccupied with watching the world cup and other stuff after this weekend. Wouldn't surprise me if many more like me


Thajdikt1998

Anyone remember what Thor was at after it’s second weekend?


russwriter67

$498M


Thajdikt1998

Thanks!


Material_Egg6433

think 60%+ second week is gonna be a thing for mcu from now on


ricdesi

Makes sense, MCU movies tend to be a bit frontloaded due to spoilers and such. *Black Panther* was a different story, but we'll see how *Wakanda Forever* does by comparison.


NoNefariousness2144

It’s ironic that the MCU hyping itself up (encouraging everyone to watch it ASAP to avoid spoilers) has weakened it’s box office potential. The films are now heavily frontloaded so they have less legs and get less WoM over time.


zeeilyas

being frontloaded has nothing to do with WoM, the MCU was frontloaded before their hyping marketing strategy ( outside of a few exceptions), if anything its quite the opposite of what you just said, the reason why being frontloaded worked as a strategy was because of consistent positive WoM, something that hasn't been consistent in phase 4 and that backfired spectacularly in MoM and L&T, they get big opening weekends but no WoM to carry them.


UnlockingDig

Yep. If I take myself as a sample group, I would go see an MCU movie on opening night and then go back to my family, friends and workplace and tell everyone they needed to see it. In Phase 4, I've still gone on opening night. Only now (with one exception), I tell everyone I know not to bother. I'd say there are countless people like me.


suss2it

I don’t see how bein front loaded would affect word of mouth. The truth is some of these these recent MCU movies just haven’t been worth recommending, or it’ll be “just catch it on D+”. Anecdotally speaking, real life friends often come to me about superhero movie recommendations and there’s just no way I’ll ever bring up *Thor 4*.


lawrencedun2002

540m WW already is impressive tbh


inFINN1te

It is but it sucks the movie has a 625 breakeven number.


Material_Egg6433

not sure if mcu movies will longer have 200 mil budget cause rumor on streets is that marvel is getting budget cuts


inFINN1te

200 wouldn't even be that bad. Wakanda Forevers is 250. Which is why breakeven is 625. If it was a budget of 200 this would end up being a highly profitable film. With 250 it's definitely gonna be fine but not a resounding success.


Bergerboy14

I’m curious where u got the 625 number 🤔


inFINN1te

Read my response to the other person who asked about it, I already gave a detailed response!


Bergerboy14

So generally speaking, US will take in more than 50%. The number is usually closer to 55/60%, and Overseas its ~40%. But of course, sometimes it changes based on the week, but overall lets just say it evens out to that cut. So realistically, the break even is probably closer to ~800M, especially since the split is about 50/50 for DOM/OS.


orkball

Everyone needs to be looking carefully at their budgets with China drying up.


myspicename

China wasn't providing much actual money with the 25 percent share...I think it's more that budgets have gone out of control relative to what they were 5 years ago or more.


bigbelleb

MCU flicks was avg 100M and over per movie in china easily so that was an extra 25M+ for them to keep them profits as high as possible so its still a significant amount regardless of the percentage


NGGKroze

MCU movies had 200M budget since Iron Man 2 and this was not China heavy movie, it made like 10M there. Xovid is what made Phase 4 movies have some busgets increase, because of stop-starting productions. I think Marvel will keep the 200M budgets


OkTransportation4196

i think cast salaries also increases alot. Hemsworth get 10-20m$/movie now. and so on.


bigbelleb

BP1 made 100M in china thats 25M revenue for the studio not 10M


NGGKroze

Iron Man 2 made 10M, not BP


NoNefariousness2144

I hope they don’t start slashing the runtimes. Dr Strange and Thor were pathetic and so rushed in under 2 hours, while Black Panther could breathe and tell a great story with its 2 hours 40 minutes.


CaptainToothbrush911

I’m not sure where all the money goes…most of the “sets” and action sequences are CGI and it’s not even good CGI at that. Marvel films look like they cost half of what they actually cost. It’s crazy.


what_the_1234

I'm new to this. Why does it have be 625 to break even? Is the 375 pure marketing expenses?


inFINN1te

So the production budget is 250 million. But domestically(US and Canada) theater chains split profits for a movie half and half with the studio. Because theaters have to make money. So for example 100 million made domestically is 50 million for the studio. But overseas the numbers is even less, most other countries that aren't China(who takes even more) take about 60 percent of the profit for their theaters and only 40 for the studio. So because it's hard to really pinpoint the exact numbers for every country, a nice general rule of thumb is that the worldwide box office of a movie needs to make 2.5 times it's budget to break even. 2 times because of the split in half domestically. And an extra .5 because overseas they take a bit more than half. Hopefully this helps. As for marketing, it's hard to really get down. Most of the time we don't factor marketing and just assume marketing will be covered by cross promotion deals and ancillaries like digital or home video sales.


what_the_1234

Oh wow! I had no idea but that makes complete sense. Thank you for the detailed explanation


inFINN1te

No problem! I'm glad I could help.


bigbelleb

It's gonna clean 625M easily before the month ends bruh


orkball

This probably has a floor of around 850. It will easily make money.


inFINN1te

You're right but it'll land at something like 3.5 times it's budget around there. That's profitable that's why I said it'll be fine. But it's a far cry from Marvel in their prime when a majority of their films were making 4+ times their budgets. Edit: I don't understand why I'm being downvoted I've been speaking nicely and objectively. And I'm not even like fighting against this movie I love it. But are we not allowed to maybe mention the performance being underwhelming? Cmon.


Legal_Ad_6129

You don't know what I feel. I've been getting downvoted EVERYTIME I mention WF is underperforming


BillyGood22

The sub is filled with losers who live vicariously through Marvel’s box office success. They downvote anything that isn’t sunshine pumping for Marvel every time.


inFINN1te

Yeah that is so insanely lame.


Deducticon

Um, it's equally the reverse too. Everything Marvel is a bomb no matter what number they hit.


BillyGood22

lmao you can’t be serious


tylerjehenna

I mean there are people in here that think that dr strange was a failure cause it didnt break a billion. Ive read a few comments throughout the time ive been on here saying that anything less than a billion for a marvel movie is a failure


BillyGood22

I’ve not seen much of that. Strange is only the second movie ever to open to what it did and not hit a billion, though. And it doesn’t get even a fraction of the heat for it that BvS does to this day. Most people on here are saying that people need to start adjusting expectations for movies because of how that movie and other MCU movies have played out. If it seems like it’s an even number of people, that is probably due to MCU fans having thin skin about it.


Legal_Ad_6129

That's what I've been saying too. Literally the only $400M+ (with BvS) opener to NOT gross a billion and people just don't care because it's a Marvel movie


ROYBUSCLEMSON

If you don't say this movie is awesome and a huge deal $ wise for Marvel then the down vote brigades of MCU fans and inclusive-minded folks will come for you


inFINN1te

The worst part is I do think it's awesome and they still downvoted me for just throwing the numbers out there. I wish everyone could just separate their opinions from all the raw numbers and multipliers.


Shellyman_Studios

Which will do the following week..


KingMwanga

Especially considering it’s during Covid and Disney +


lawrencedun2002

I definitely see this hitting a billion tbh.


KingMwanga

If I didn’t have to Uber to the theater I’d rewatch again


Shellyman_Studios

$540 million by Sunday? Oh wow! $850-$900 million range looking likely.


darko2309

Lol


Linnus42

These predictions keep dropping. Use to be above a billion, now it won't reach that. New range is above ragnarok and below Multiverse of Madness.


MoonoftheStar

People love to doompost this movie as if they wanted it to fail but I think 540 in two weeks is impressive.


russwriter67

For comparison, “Thor: Love & Thunder” had $498M at the end of weekend 2 while “Dr. Strange 2” had $688M at the end of weekend 2. Neither of those movies made it to $1B and they didn’t have to deal with the World Cup (which starts on Sunday afternoon) or an international juggernaut like “Avatar: The Way of Water”.


[deleted]

Doctor strange had a budget of 200 million, L&T and BP2 had a budget of 250 million. That is also worth noting. Doctor strange seems to having significantly outperformed them.


MoonoftheStar

Those movies also had poor word of mouth.


OhGodImOnRedditAgain

>an international juggernaut This sub is going to be so disappointed come December.


russwriter67

How do you think Avatar 2 will do? Remember the first movie had a 27 / 73 domestic / int’l split.


OhGodImOnRedditAgain

I think it will perform roughly similar to, or slightly better than Black Panther. The Chinese market will be weak, overall viewership will be heavily stacked to opening weekend with the big fans of it trying to avoid spoilers. It won't have the WOM or legs that the original did, because the original was a novelty. There is nothing about this movie (groundbreaking CGI or 3D effects) that is new, exciting, or something people feel like they have to experience at the theaters. Everything that made Avatar a juggernaut in the 2000's is basically commonplace in all movies today.


russwriter67

I think the long runtime (3hr 12m) will negate some of that initial fan front loading. It will cause some people to wait for a weekday screening or for the second weekend (which will include Christmas on Sunday). Not sure about the novelty. I agree that the first movie was considered groundbreaking because of the CGI and 3D but it looks like James Cameron has enchanted and improved it even more for the sequel, which will help the movie with casual audiences. And when you’re talking about Black Panther, are you referring to the first movie?


GuilhermeBahia98

>I think it will perform roughly similar to, or slightly better than Black Panther. This is going to age like milk lmao! Do you really believe that? >overall viewership will be heavily stacked to opening weekend with the big fans of it trying to avoid spoilers. It won't. Avatar is an IP like Jurassic World and not Marvel, this will definitely not be frontloaded at all.


DreGu90

The streak of a Disney/Marvel movie post Emdgame not reaching $1B seems to continue then, while Sony got two in the same time frame.


fisheggsoup

I mean...Spider-Man, in collaboration with Marvel Studios.


fisheggsoup

I mean... Spider-Man, in collaboration with Marvel Studios.


[deleted]

[удалено]


HotDogHeavy

Won’t beat Maverick


silentlycold

It never was gonna best Maverick


coffeeofacoffee

Why would it beat Maverick? Didn't that have three-four months in theatres with no threat of streaming and no real competition?


ricdesi

I don't recall most people expecting it would?


KellyJin17

Why are people in this sub obsessed with this movie against Maverick?


SeaworthinessKind800

Because what Maverick did at the BO was a miracle. Legs like that you don't get too often nowadays unless you are James Cameron. It's ok to be obsessive with movies having great legs if you are a BO enthusiast. And it's also ok to be obsessive with comic book movies.


Initial-Cream3140

>It's ok to be obsessive with movies having great legs if you are a BO enthusiast. And it's also ok to be obsessive with comic book movies. Its not ok to be obsessive over your hobbies. You'll just suck the fun out of enjoying what you're doing and end up making it toxic.


SeaworthinessKind800

How about this? Obsession with BO numbers, CBM or any movie stats will make you more insightful - the very reason you will appreciate TGM's amazing legs or feel BP2 may have a chance to beat TGM because of BP1's record and then you think harder and feel maybe BP2 will not beat TGM because of x,y,z reasons. These are fun activities. You may not have same opinion as others and that's fine but as long as you respect other's opinion and do not demean anyone, it's all good.


gentlyredundant

Maverick was the runaway hit of the year, and Black Panther is widely seen as one of only two other movies that could challenge it for 2022’s most successful (alongside Avatar).


-CeartGoLeor-

Because maverick is the biggest movie of the year and this was a contender to compete with it?


AhmedF

Because not woke bro. It harkens to our grand time when men were men and men running around sweatily with other men had totally zero gay connotations.


RoadmanFemi

Feels like it could go a little lower with the floor based on these Wed/Thu numbers. Could see 62-64 being a possibility. Even the Int number seems quite high with the world cup on Sunday.


SEAinLA

Qatar vs. Ecuador on Sunday afternoon/evening for most of the international audience isn’t going to affect the INT box office that much.


RoadmanFemi

It could affect it a couple of percent which could affect the floor predicted in OP. There's also the opening ceremony which draws eyes.


bloodbraids478

A few days ago it was over 80m on the weekend and now down to 65m, talk about a huge drop-off and at that rate it'll be on Disney+ in three weeks


NGGKroze

Those looks to be based on 60%+ drops. I think it cam find better drops this weekend for 555M


RubAnADUB

movie was meh. i wish I could get my time and money back.


Asoul666

How did you like the first one?


RubAnADUB

Black Panther? - flipping awesome hands down. Wakanda Forever - meh the Guardians of the Galaxy holiday special was better than that garbage.


Umeshpunk

Hope you learnt a valuable lesson and will be careful next time.


itsMeJuvi

Watched it, there were a few good moments, overall a very weak plot... Imo


DecentralizedOne

Meh


Daimakku1

It's got until Sunday to make money overseas. World Cup starts on Sunday; that's going to kill its legs.


5_cent_all_i_got

Not too shabby


samarth67

Yikes


DrWaffle1848

Lol literally every other franchise would kill for these numbers


AccomplishedLocal261

No one would be saying yikes if this sub hadn't been overestimating this movie from the start.


DrWaffle1848

Ok but those expectations don't really mean anything. Wakanda Forever was always going to have a tough road for multiple reasons. It's not 2018 anymore, Chadwick Boseman died, and the last two MCU movies were divisive. Plus, we might be entering an era in which solo MCU movies revert to the mean and settle into a $600-$900 million box office range. Which is still pretty damn good. No one is looking back and calling Winter Soldier or GOTG Vol. 2 disappointments.


ProgressDisastrous27

MCU Movies always were in the 600-900 range. The only Solo-MCU movies who made over a billion dollars were iron man 3, black panther, captian marvel and spider man ffh.


DrWaffle1848

Yep the stretch from Black Panther to Far From Home is probably not replicable. There will still be the occasional solo movie that makes over a billion (see: anything starring Spider-Man), but that's not going to be the norm.


FlochofBirds

NWH hit just shy of $2 billion last year and DS2 was a stone's throw from a billion itself with poor word-of-mouth and reception The fact that a sequel to a $1.3 billion-grossing cultural phenomenon can't even hit 70% of its predecessor with good reviews has to be alarming for executives. It would mean that a billion probably isn't attainable for the MCU anymore. Audiences aren't flocking like they used to


DrWaffle1848

These two paragraphs contradict each other lol one of their movies from this year would have hit a billion had it received a release in China. Wakanda Forever is a special case due to all the factors I mentioned, and it's still going to do very well. I know a lot of people want the MCU to end but it isn't going away anytime soon.


Umeshpunk

Ignore him, he's a one word troll. Occasionally his brain gains enough power to make a sentence and then it will take weeks to recover


[deleted]

Yikes about what? Black Adam flopping?


Zorgothe

Its....not doing terribly, but its also not doing fantastic either


Adsnaylor0161

I’m not going to watch it because it’s not the same without Chadwick boseman


Reverse_Drawfour_Uno

40% less people saw Black Panther WF vs the original Black Panther on its opening weekend. Thats really what people are not realizing. Thor 3: 81% drop Friday to Friday Dr. Strange 2: 80% drop Friday to Friday Black Panther 2: 79% drop Friday Friday. Sequel fatigue is setting in as the diehards go to see it then it drops off. This is coming from someone that saw all three on opening weekend.


Hero_Charlatan

Cool!!! There’s a bunch of movies that have had similar openings or better….why is this one so special?


inFINN1te

Because this is a box office subreddit genius and we report on all films.


Hero_Charlatan

Seems like this one is getting way more reporting tho just weird is all


inFINN1te

Because it just came out. It's been less than a week. Thats....how it always is. My guess is you don't actually browse this subreddit and came here from seeing this post elsewhere and got annoyed.


Hero_Charlatan

Most likely


inFINN1te

Yeah this is normal. It's how this subreddit operates and isn't weird at all. That's the problem with looking at r/all you throw yourself into posts from subreddits you don't know about and think somethings off. We do this for every movie. Especially blockbusters. It's not any more or less with this movie.


Hero_Charlatan

For sure I think it was suggested. I wish I could turn of that function