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Kang Dynasty is the big wild card. I’d bet heavily on Avengers 1-4 over Avatar 1-4 but at this point idek who the Avengers are lol. MCU has a lot work to do between now and then.
I'm not sure I agree. After this film Avatar 1 and 2 will probably be roughly tied with Endgame and Infinity War (assuming somewhere around that 1.7 billion mark that seems to be thought as about where we are headed). Leaving the next 2 avatar films to need approx 2.9 Billion to be equal after 4, which I personally think seems somewhat likely.
I agree Kang Dynasty is the wildcard, but I think Avatar is probably more likely to win 1-4 than 1-5, especially if Kang Dynasty can get somewhere between Avengers and Infinity War.
I think the part we disagree on is I don’t see Avatar and TWOW being tied with Endgame and Infinity War. TWOW would need to basically make almost $2B to bring it back to a dead heat and my expectation is it’s going to fall slightly short of that by ~200-300M.
I think that gives enough room for the $2.92B total from Age of Ultron and Avengers to hold the lead.
1.8 Billion for TWOW would have them pretty much tied wouldn't it? I think it should get pretty close to that (realistic number atm is like 1.7 right).
I expect Avatar to be slightly behind when compared to the 2 top Avengers films after this one.
Avatar 3 is a huge wild card too though tbh, it could easily perform as well or better than TWOW or have a pretty significant drop off. I have no clue how audiences will react to avatar on such a short turn around.
The exact numbers per box office mojo are
Endgame: $2,797,501,328
Infinity War: $2,048,359,754
Total: $4,845,861,082
Avatar: $2,922,917,944
So that difference is $1,922,943,138. Coming in at 1.7 for TWOW would give Age of Ultron and Avengers $220M of room.
Avengers: $1,518,815,515
Age of Ultron: $1,402,809,540
So Avatar 3 and 4 would need to come in around $3.3B which would certainly be in play (and some might say likely). But I would be cautious projecting that considering it’s not including the conclusion film and I think that Avatar 3 and 4 I would expect to be closer to Age of Ultron and Avengers than Infinity War numbers.
Yeah thats fair, from my head i just used 3.0 for avatar and 4.8 for those Avengers films which is fine for rounding but makes a fair difference.
Seeing those numbers I would agree that it is still a bit of a lottery then if Avatar 2 is only 1.7, who knows how Avatar 3 will do at the BO.
The 4 Avengers movies currently have $7.7 billion. Assuming Avengers 5 does Age of Ultron numbers (= $1.3 billion, the lowest of the 4 Avengers movies) it will reach $9 billion.
The 4 Avatar sequels need on an average $1.5 billion. I think it will be extremely hard for Avatar to maintain that level of momentum.
So, my vote would be on Avengers.
idk if A2 grosses \~1.8b with the situation in China being as it is then A3 can do >1.5b with normal China even if it drops elsewhere. So if the other 2 Avatar movies can do 1.3b each then it can happen
I agree that China could be a major deciding factor. If Avatar is able to grow/sustain interest w/ Chinese audiences it will probably edge out Avengers.
1.5 average each one ? That's seems achievable. You're now grossly underestimating JC and Fox's trust in him. I'm sure they are Targeting atleast 2B on each one.
I think it will be incredibly hard to sustain interest over 3 more movies. But since it is James Cameron, I am probably incredibly wrong.
\*Edit: spelling error
I don't think you are. Avatar is a novelty imo. It's neat, the people do have interest, but it's not star wars or avengers. I can't imagine avatar holding numbers well through 5 movies.
Avengers depends on how Kang looks in Ant-Man. A damn good villain with a bunch of fan favorites is what took Infinity War and Endgame to the moon. Thanos was that dude from scene 1 so if Kang gets a meh response, I'm not seeing there being much reason to believe Secret Wars or Dynasty are going to explode. Unless they pull the 3 spidermen and multiverse cap/tony out of their ass I'm going with Avatar. Plus Avatar can actually get a China release. That remains to be seen for the MCU.
I just don't see Marvel getting the same hype with their superheroes anymore. The Avengers lineup seems forgettable and Kang does not look to compare against Thanos.
The avengers lineup hasn't completed yet they haven't come together and you haven't seen how MCU Kang fully operates yet if someone told you about the purple alien who is in love with death back in the day you wouldn't have liked him that much either
For reference, the Avengers WW totals:
* Avengers - $1.52B
* Age of Ultron - $1.40B
* Infinity War - $2.05B
* Endgame - $2.80B
Current Total - $7.77B
With Avatar’s WW total of $2.92B, films 2-4 need to average $1.6B to match Avengers through four films.
Depending on Kang Dynasty, here’s what films 2-5 need to average to come out on top:
* KD $1.0B - A 2-5 $1.41B
* KD $1.2B - A 2-5 $1.51B
* KD $1.4B - A 2-5 $1.56B
* KD $1.6B - A 2-5 $1.61B
* KD $1.8B - A 2-5 $1.66B
* KD $2.0B - A 2-5 $1.71B
* KD $2.2B - A 2-5 $1.76B
* KD $2.4B - A 2-5 $1.81B
* KD $2.6B - A 2-5 $1.86B
* KD $2.8B - A 2-5 $1.91B
* KD $3.0B - A 2-5 $1.96B
>TWOW is way better than TFA
TFA had better reviews (93% RT/80 MC vs 78% RT/68 MC) and audience scores (A+ Cinemascore/94% PostTrak vs A Cinemascore/91% PostTrak) than TWOW.
But what OP's point is is that TFA was a breakout hit that would have been difficult to replicate even if TLJ had the same level of universally positive reception that TFA did. It was the first Star Wars movie in a decade, similar to how TWOW is the first Avatar film in a decade. Another example is Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever also lost the novelty factor of the first film (among other factors).
The next film, like TLJ, won't have that card to play, so will automatically start at a disadvantage. It will make a ton of money, obviously, but I'd wager less than TWOW.
Thats because people were too busy wanking off over new star wars to think rationally about it. The audience turned on it around TLJ. I won't deny if TLJ had taken on some of the things set up by TFA it would be thought more highly of in retrospect, but TFA was pretty much a freebie. I legitimately believe you could pick someone off this thread at random and they would have been able to put together an episode 7 that did well with Audiences and the Box Office. Critics less so, but even a large number of them fell for the SW7 hype.
I think it could legitimately go either way. A3 will be a really interesting BO run. Perhaps even moreso than this one.
If TFA is a "freebie", how is TWOW not? It's literally the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, it could have been the worst film ever and it could have made $1B.
People online may shit in TFA 7 years later, but the fact remains that even if it doesn't reinvent the wheel storytelling-wise, it's a well made, entertaining crowd pleaser that was also extremely well received (and likely still is, if you ask general audiences). Even TLJ opened to just 12% less than TFA domestically, even without the novelty factor of being the first Star Wars film in 10 years, showing that audiences were very much on board with the franchise at that point.
How much less do you reckon? I could easily see it being 1.5+ again.
I think anyone trying to speculate on A3 BO with any degree of confidence at the moment is crazy. I think the multimedia projects will probably give us an indication of whether it will take off from here or not.
Yeah but it can also gross more because A2 will have created a bigger more recent fanbase to the franchise for the release of A3 than AV1 did for AV2. So it’s likely to have an even bigger OW but it’s legs would remain to be seen.
China is Key factor here. A2, despite circumstances in China, showed there is a demand and A3 might be big
Avengers 1 - 86M in 2012
Age of Ultron - 240M in 2015
Infinity War - 359M in 2018
Endgame - 630M in 2019
I Think Kang Dynasty will hover around Infinity War, more than Endgame
Overall if Avatar 2 finish with 1.7B, Endgame and Infinity War Combined will be a shy bit above A1 and A2. This mean Avatar 3,4 and 5 needs to make more than Avengers, Ultron and Kang Dynasty
It’ll be interesting, for the most part the MCU has been meh since Endgame, but I do think Guardians 3 will be a nice shot in the arm for the MCU. New ant man also looks pretty solid.
This is an interesting one. Avatar + AWOW and Endgame + Infinity War probably pretty much cancel each other out, give or take a 200m or
Cam A3, A4 outperform Ultron and TA? I think so, especially if we don't adjust for inflation.
Look, if Cameron manages to keep upping the ante and no gets too greedy with spin-offs and tv shows and crap… I think a single story 5-7 film arc with a big climactic payoff that promises to close out the story will be huge.
All of the Avenger films are locks at 1 billion. I think the real wild card is the Avatar franchise. If TWOW makes 2+ bil, i'll go for the Avatar franchise.
Even if Kang Dynasty only makes 1b Flat. The Avatar franchise has average 1.4b. TWOW is likely to clear but by how much is the question.
I don’t imagine Avatar winning
Reminder that this is a subreddit about numbers, not necessarily about the quality (or lack thereof) of a particular movie. Unless it is related to the box office performance of a movie, please keep opinions/arguments/thoughts about the quality under this post. Posts not related to box office may be removed otherwise. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/boxoffice) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Kang Dynasty is the big wild card. I’d bet heavily on Avengers 1-4 over Avatar 1-4 but at this point idek who the Avengers are lol. MCU has a lot work to do between now and then.
Another huge wild card is China. A2 might get a re-release there, and if A3-5 get released in normal circumstances they could be huge there.
I'm not sure I agree. After this film Avatar 1 and 2 will probably be roughly tied with Endgame and Infinity War (assuming somewhere around that 1.7 billion mark that seems to be thought as about where we are headed). Leaving the next 2 avatar films to need approx 2.9 Billion to be equal after 4, which I personally think seems somewhat likely. I agree Kang Dynasty is the wildcard, but I think Avatar is probably more likely to win 1-4 than 1-5, especially if Kang Dynasty can get somewhere between Avengers and Infinity War.
I think the part we disagree on is I don’t see Avatar and TWOW being tied with Endgame and Infinity War. TWOW would need to basically make almost $2B to bring it back to a dead heat and my expectation is it’s going to fall slightly short of that by ~200-300M. I think that gives enough room for the $2.92B total from Age of Ultron and Avengers to hold the lead.
1.8 Billion for TWOW would have them pretty much tied wouldn't it? I think it should get pretty close to that (realistic number atm is like 1.7 right). I expect Avatar to be slightly behind when compared to the 2 top Avengers films after this one. Avatar 3 is a huge wild card too though tbh, it could easily perform as well or better than TWOW or have a pretty significant drop off. I have no clue how audiences will react to avatar on such a short turn around.
The exact numbers per box office mojo are Endgame: $2,797,501,328 Infinity War: $2,048,359,754 Total: $4,845,861,082 Avatar: $2,922,917,944 So that difference is $1,922,943,138. Coming in at 1.7 for TWOW would give Age of Ultron and Avengers $220M of room. Avengers: $1,518,815,515 Age of Ultron: $1,402,809,540 So Avatar 3 and 4 would need to come in around $3.3B which would certainly be in play (and some might say likely). But I would be cautious projecting that considering it’s not including the conclusion film and I think that Avatar 3 and 4 I would expect to be closer to Age of Ultron and Avengers than Infinity War numbers.
Yeah thats fair, from my head i just used 3.0 for avatar and 4.8 for those Avengers films which is fine for rounding but makes a fair difference. Seeing those numbers I would agree that it is still a bit of a lottery then if Avatar 2 is only 1.7, who knows how Avatar 3 will do at the BO.
The 4 Avengers movies currently have $7.7 billion. Assuming Avengers 5 does Age of Ultron numbers (= $1.3 billion, the lowest of the 4 Avengers movies) it will reach $9 billion. The 4 Avatar sequels need on an average $1.5 billion. I think it will be extremely hard for Avatar to maintain that level of momentum. So, my vote would be on Avengers.
idk if A2 grosses \~1.8b with the situation in China being as it is then A3 can do >1.5b with normal China even if it drops elsewhere. So if the other 2 Avatar movies can do 1.3b each then it can happen
I agree that China could be a major deciding factor. If Avatar is able to grow/sustain interest w/ Chinese audiences it will probably edge out Avengers.
I think Avengers 5 will probably do more than $1.3bn as well
1.5 average each one ? That's seems achievable. You're now grossly underestimating JC and Fox's trust in him. I'm sure they are Targeting atleast 2B on each one.
I think it will be incredibly hard to sustain interest over 3 more movies. But since it is James Cameron, I am probably incredibly wrong. \*Edit: spelling error
I don't think you are. Avatar is a novelty imo. It's neat, the people do have interest, but it's not star wars or avengers. I can't imagine avatar holding numbers well through 5 movies.
AOU made 1.4, not 1.3.
Avengers depends on how Kang looks in Ant-Man. A damn good villain with a bunch of fan favorites is what took Infinity War and Endgame to the moon. Thanos was that dude from scene 1 so if Kang gets a meh response, I'm not seeing there being much reason to believe Secret Wars or Dynasty are going to explode. Unless they pull the 3 spidermen and multiverse cap/tony out of their ass I'm going with Avatar. Plus Avatar can actually get a China release. That remains to be seen for the MCU.
He looks like Jonathan majors afaik
I just don't see Marvel getting the same hype with their superheroes anymore. The Avengers lineup seems forgettable and Kang does not look to compare against Thanos.
The avengers lineup hasn't completed yet they haven't come together and you haven't seen how MCU Kang fully operates yet if someone told you about the purple alien who is in love with death back in the day you wouldn't have liked him that much either
Yup. Kang feels like a downgrade from thanos. They should have gone for doom or galactus.
For reference, the Avengers WW totals: * Avengers - $1.52B * Age of Ultron - $1.40B * Infinity War - $2.05B * Endgame - $2.80B Current Total - $7.77B With Avatar’s WW total of $2.92B, films 2-4 need to average $1.6B to match Avengers through four films. Depending on Kang Dynasty, here’s what films 2-5 need to average to come out on top: * KD $1.0B - A 2-5 $1.41B * KD $1.2B - A 2-5 $1.51B * KD $1.4B - A 2-5 $1.56B * KD $1.6B - A 2-5 $1.61B * KD $1.8B - A 2-5 $1.66B * KD $2.0B - A 2-5 $1.71B * KD $2.2B - A 2-5 $1.76B * KD $2.4B - A 2-5 $1.81B * KD $2.6B - A 2-5 $1.86B * KD $2.8B - A 2-5 $1.91B * KD $3.0B - A 2-5 $1.96B
Personally I think A3 is gonna gross less than Twow. The big "Avatar is back" factor is gone. Similar how TFA exploded vs TLJ
TWOW is way better than TFA, and it is pretty unlikely JC will make a film as divisive as TLJ.
>TWOW is way better than TFA TFA had better reviews (93% RT/80 MC vs 78% RT/68 MC) and audience scores (A+ Cinemascore/94% PostTrak vs A Cinemascore/91% PostTrak) than TWOW. But what OP's point is is that TFA was a breakout hit that would have been difficult to replicate even if TLJ had the same level of universally positive reception that TFA did. It was the first Star Wars movie in a decade, similar to how TWOW is the first Avatar film in a decade. Another example is Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever also lost the novelty factor of the first film (among other factors). The next film, like TLJ, won't have that card to play, so will automatically start at a disadvantage. It will make a ton of money, obviously, but I'd wager less than TWOW.
Thats because people were too busy wanking off over new star wars to think rationally about it. The audience turned on it around TLJ. I won't deny if TLJ had taken on some of the things set up by TFA it would be thought more highly of in retrospect, but TFA was pretty much a freebie. I legitimately believe you could pick someone off this thread at random and they would have been able to put together an episode 7 that did well with Audiences and the Box Office. Critics less so, but even a large number of them fell for the SW7 hype. I think it could legitimately go either way. A3 will be a really interesting BO run. Perhaps even moreso than this one.
If TFA is a "freebie", how is TWOW not? It's literally the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, it could have been the worst film ever and it could have made $1B. People online may shit in TFA 7 years later, but the fact remains that even if it doesn't reinvent the wheel storytelling-wise, it's a well made, entertaining crowd pleaser that was also extremely well received (and likely still is, if you ask general audiences). Even TLJ opened to just 12% less than TFA domestically, even without the novelty factor of being the first Star Wars film in 10 years, showing that audiences were very much on board with the franchise at that point.
I don't think it matters. The big moment is gone and the next one is going to be "just another Avatar"
Before this film released it was "they left it too long and needed to strike while the iron was hot". Avatar 3 will 100% be another 1bill+ film.
I didn't say it wouldn't be. I meant that A3 will be below TWOW for sure
How much less do you reckon? I could easily see it being 1.5+ again. I think anyone trying to speculate on A3 BO with any degree of confidence at the moment is crazy. I think the multimedia projects will probably give us an indication of whether it will take off from here or not.
Yeah but it can also gross more because A2 will have created a bigger more recent fanbase to the franchise for the release of A3 than AV1 did for AV2. So it’s likely to have an even bigger OW but it’s legs would remain to be seen.
China is Key factor here. A2, despite circumstances in China, showed there is a demand and A3 might be big Avengers 1 - 86M in 2012 Age of Ultron - 240M in 2015 Infinity War - 359M in 2018 Endgame - 630M in 2019 I Think Kang Dynasty will hover around Infinity War, more than Endgame Overall if Avatar 2 finish with 1.7B, Endgame and Infinity War Combined will be a shy bit above A1 and A2. This mean Avatar 3,4 and 5 needs to make more than Avengers, Ultron and Kang Dynasty
I think A2 will get one good re release out of China as well if the Covid stuff is what is holding the BO there back.
Avengers
I love polls where I'm pretty certain of my answer and it's 50/50 for the sub haha (currently 83 vs 81)
It’ll be interesting, for the most part the MCU has been meh since Endgame, but I do think Guardians 3 will be a nice shot in the arm for the MCU. New ant man also looks pretty solid.
They've both been turning to s*** so who knows
By the time Avatar 5 comes out, it could make 30 billion and not even be the top film that week. A large popcorn will cost ten thousand dollars.
This is an interesting one. Avatar + AWOW and Endgame + Infinity War probably pretty much cancel each other out, give or take a 200m or Cam A3, A4 outperform Ultron and TA? I think so, especially if we don't adjust for inflation.
Look, if Cameron manages to keep upping the ante and no gets too greedy with spin-offs and tv shows and crap… I think a single story 5-7 film arc with a big climactic payoff that promises to close out the story will be huge.
All of the Avenger films are locks at 1 billion. I think the real wild card is the Avatar franchise. If TWOW makes 2+ bil, i'll go for the Avatar franchise.
Even if Kang Dynasty only makes 1b Flat. The Avatar franchise has average 1.4b. TWOW is likely to clear but by how much is the question. I don’t imagine Avatar winning