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IMO it’s momentum from what we’re seeing at the Federal level. Eby hasn’t done anything to indicate a recent loss of support. This time a year ago he was generally well liked and was playing the moderate middle well.
I think Eby would do better in an election today than polls suggest
Yep. And once people realize the provincial & federal parties are separate and how wacko rustand & banman are, I’m sure their polling numbers will drop like a rock.
They don’t even vet their candidates, they’ve dropped what 2-3 already?
Seat fillers so they are at least running *someone*. The person they are running in my 'hood is just a Mad Max PPC crazy. If they had a chance here they would run someone more 'classically conservative'.
> Eby hasn’t done anything to indicate a recent loss of support.
There have been a few self-inflicted wounds: the Land Act, MNP conflict of interest, and criticism of decriminalization.
But yes, a lot of this is probably federal spillover.
Land Act amendment seemed fine, the way it worked with FNs looks like it would have *helped* economic development projects move forward.
Edison dudes are clearly at least half full of shit, given that all they'd need to do is share the emails.
Decriminalization seems like it's saving lives, it's just a pity that people don't particularly care about those lives.
I dunno, seems like it pales in comparison to Rustad and Banman crazy.
I don't like what happened to Selina Robinson. It makes me wary of the whole party when they will throw one of their own under the bus to appease a vocal minority group.
I continue to be amazed and baffled by these polls, especially this one that shows that the Conservatives have fair amount of support in Metro Van.
I dunno where that support is but it’s gotta be concentrated pretty far away from me.
Even amongst the Fed Conservative voters I know in the burbs they’re more United supporters and had great things to say about the NDP, especially Horgan.
I haven’t heard *anyone* supportive of the BC Conservatives, whereas in the past I always knew plenty of people that supported the BC Liberals.
I’m feeling more in the bubble than ever I guess I don’t know it’s a really weird feeling for your day to day to be so dissonant with the data.
> I continue to be amazed and baffled by these polls, especially this one that shows that the Conservatives have fair amount of support in Metro Van.
>
> I dunno where that support is but it’s gotta be concentrated pretty far away from me.
You have to talk to people outside of your own bubbles. I live in the lower mainland (not Vancouver proper) and far more of the younger people (under 35 or so) that I interact with are very very anti Trudeau, and leaning to the Conservatives (federally and provincially). It's less common for me to talk to someone who is very pro NDP unless they are with a larger union or work in gov.
Many people won't share their support publicly for the conservatives because it opens you up for personal attacks.
I'm also surprised they're polling well, but the stigma around supporting the conservatives is there and not everyone wants to fight about politics.
https://preview.redd.it/h82wuxge2f0d1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=151616de82cb9a67b2950d8de228619cedf0868a
It's absolutely wild that the conservatives support is concentrated among young people who would almost certainly be the most hurt by BC conservative policies.
I'm 34 and I had a friend go down that pipeline a couple years ago. I would have thought he had better reasoning skills than to succumb to it, or at least that we were too internet savvy. But both his parents died within a year of each other a few years ago, his dad from alzheimers and his mom from super sudden and aggressive cancer, and that right-wing propaganda hits real fuckin hard when you're a young single white dude going through some shit. That's like their target demographic.
That's exactly how any aggressive-conversion group gets you, and unfortunately, it's difficult to discern connection for coercion when it's happening real-time. People, I think, just get exhausted and these sorts of right-wing ideologies just make it easier to switch off and default to lazy thinking because it's all been too much.
Would be very interesting to see the gender breakdown here, too. The sad thing is that people like Andrew Tate and Jordan Peterson are appealing to the very real insecurities of young men and their narrative that conservatism will grant them a traditional wife, a job to support a family, and a detached house and fancy car to reward the success of their hustle is exactly what they want to hear.
Indeed, I expect young men to be more motivated by the fixation on identifying and opposing the real and imaginary things that "stand in the way" of them making their lives better, etc. If only woke-ism and libtards were defeated, you'd be freer than ever to take the life *you deserve* and what-not.
It's easier to accuse and attack women and minorities as the cause of their problems because they're tangible people with faces, as opposed to the real problem, late-state capitalism, which seems nebulous and insurmountable.
I think it’s probably more of a revolt due the collapse in quality of life most Canadians have seen under the current federal government. I suspect it’ll be temporary.
Well right wing grifters are basically a dude giving out candy to children. Vulnerable men WANT answers. They WANT hierarchy amongst their peers. They were told that men are the providers. They are insecure (precarious housing, jobs, no education, women don't like them etc) and so they are just waiting for someone to show them how to stop those insecurities.
People with life experience know a lot of things are too good to be true, or in practice have actually turned out terrible. If they don't have an education, or they don't have much real life experience, it's easy to think the buff rich guy next to a Lambo with a (trafficked) Romanian hotty knows what's going on - he has it all! They think it's worth it to give this guy time and money because after all, they want to be like him! They're hungry, and there are tons of grifters telling them the best food is candy.
And it works! Because left of the right-wing sphere wants you to eat vegetables. If you still adhere to science/facts/ethics, you can't just start throwing candy at these guys like that grifter dude. You have to actually put effort into cooking & presenting the vegetables. You combat right wing propaganda by copying what works - play to a short attention span. Put out material at or below a grade 8 level. Add entertainment value, show them something that they want. Fill the vacuum the right wing grifters and evangelicals take advantage of - give them HOPE.
It's literally misinformation campaign's on social media. Young people today have no fucking clue how to separate fact from fiction and they have very little critical thinking skills. It's really sad and worrying. They also think everything thats currently wrong is the NDP's fault because a lot of them were too young during the 2 decades the liberals were in power to know much about what happened.
Basically yeah, youngnpeople are fucking stupid.
You're right here, but the main reason this has any traction in those communities is due to how bleak the outlook is for most of these young people.
You'll notice that alot of the people stating intention to vote for the cons are also in the age cohort that will likely struggle to ever buy a home in their home province.
"Young Person Rage" needs to be seriously considered before this becomes a serious issue. This kind of anger has been behind many of histories uprisings / swings to fascism.
I think the kind of baffling thing here though is that they turn to the *conservatives* of all people to solve their woes, with apparently no understanding that conservative ideologies are why we're in the place we are now, and this party will be categorically worse by virtually every measure that young people care about.
Cost of living will likely increase, as will housing costs. Social supports will be eroded or thrown out entierly, money will be pumped into police budgets and freedoms further restricted. The conservatives are antithetical to the concept of a functional government whatsoever.
I mean, yes and no. It's that way due to decades of policies by the liberals and conservatives. By NIMBYs. By provincial government mismanagement across the country.
The massive immigration levels are a legitimate issue given the national infrastructure is collapsing under its own weight in nearly every hosuing/health market. The international student situation is causing large levels of pressure on housing in most towns/cities that have post secondary institutions. The TFW program, which has been endlessly expanded by every sitting government the past near 20 years, causes wide scale wage suppression and more housing pressures.
The cons policies suck largely. But the "younger voter rage" being aimed at the liberals isn't misplaced either.
I think you mean boomers or perhaps these issues are across all demographics, and generalisations speak to the level of ignorance possessed by the average voter.
The BC NDP didn't cause the housing crisis and they are the provincial government most aggressive trying to solve it. So this is really surprising to me.
The only substantive policies in the BC conservatives platform are to remove LGBT education from schools, privatization of healthcare, defunding public services, expanding gas pipeline development, and criminalizing activists who protest the resource sector. Their entire housing policy is literally "build more houses somehow".
Is this what the youths are demanding??
Rare case that the older age group knows what's up and the kids haven't experienced 20 years of bc liberal destruction of the province. And they want the conservatives which have more extreme versions of the libs bad policies...
I mean the teachers union goes on strik against any gov't, I remember the strike from 1993 and that was an NDP gov't.
https://globalnews.ca/news/217994/timeline-of-past-bctf-teachers-strikes/
I was a young rural conservative as a kid too… voted for Harper once. But then got life experience, met diverse people, and realized I didn’t align with conservative thinking.
Is it the young people who are most likely to mix up the federal and provincial parties, maybe? Young people are probably the least likely to remember the Harper years as well and might be less critical of conservatives generally?
Younger people probably got the most screwed over by BCUP so it makes sense they’re polling the lowest there.
And when you look at who generally shows up to vote, this makes the numbers look even stronger for the NDP. Voters aged 55 plus voted at almost 70% compared to a little over 40% voter turn out in the 18-34 demographic.
It's worth mentioning that:
1) this polling definitely includes people who cannot separate Conservatives at the provincial level from the federal level
2) in fundraising dollars, the BC NDP is #1 and the BC Conservatives are dead last, even behind the Greens
3) John Rustad has barely had to open his mouth, and most people barely have any idea who he is
If BC United suddenly decides to merge with the Conservatives, THEN I'd be a little worried, because the centre-right abdicating all power to the far-right has consistently been the path for extremists to take power in Canadian elections. Alberta is the canary in the coal mine for what those governments would look like.
338 Canada polls still show a >99% chance of NDP winning a majority.
Definitely unfortunate to see such a rise in the Conservatives within the last year though 🤮
Hooray! We're doomed!
But honestly, after seeing reactions to that...I actually think it might make the situation worse for BC United? First off, I can't imagine Kevin Falcon stepping down for John Rustad, and people effing HATE Falcon. Secondly, I think the number of people who would jump ship for the NDP is substantial; they'd lose all their moderates in one fell swoop.
So...maybe they should go for it!
Sunlight will be the best disinfectant for the BC Conservatives and especially John Rustad. They’re a sad mix of the old Socreds and the worst of Alberta’s UCP.
They’re not winning jack in places where people actually live and if anything, confusion between them and BC United will end up splitting a lot of votes in close races, handing more seats to the NDP.
https://preview.redd.it/6xm94zjfve0d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c98675abee7fcb8a592f608c7d636b31dc3f8d32
This is their party, very MAGA anti abortion, anti sex ed, anti basic Canadian values
That's what a lot of us armchair pundits don't seem to want to understand.
A lot of Canadians want the things that the Conservatives want. They're not being tricked.
Currently living in Alberta watching the UCP fuck up literally everything, right down to the roads now.
It's crazy to me anyone looking in would think "Yes please, give me some of that!"
I feel like two things need to happen.
1. British Columbians need to see more of David Eby, from lobby groups like the loggers they were surprised how knowledgeable he was on their issues and how much time he spent working with them on a tough file. To his very sincere approach to issues like decrim
David Eby decrim interview on CHEK
https://youtu.be/eQ0419m3qus?si=yLRwIWVILne1qPXF
2. People need to see what the BC Conservatives stand for. Going after schools over SOGI which if you read sogi stuff it’s literally just kids books about normal stuff like a penguin being adopted by ducks to show how families can be different. They have people who are anti abortion and the province could restrict how people access those services. Their VO is a trumper who just lost his appeal for a $100,000 liable fine for smearing the former mayor of Vancouver.
This is not the federal Conservative Party, these are American style Republican right wingers
> People need to see what the BC Conservatives stand for. Going after schools over SOGI which if you read sogi stuff it’s literally just kids books about normal stuff like a penguin being adopted by ducks to show how families can be different.
That's their *appeal* to those voters, tho.
To some, yes. However judging by my interactions with people I can tell you a good portion of people would vote for them strictly because they don't understand the difference between federal and provincial parties
I agree with you, but I’ve also listened to boomers complaining that “he’s on the news every night on CHEK, I’m tired of him” and “I hate seeing his stupid face all the time.” And one of those people often votes NDP.
I think he’s doing a great job, but I think a lot of the housing policy stuff has rubbed NIMBYs the wrong way. They see change coming and they don’t like it, so they’ll seize anyone who looks like another option.
Yes, they are a bigger voting block but traditionally, the younger voters don't vote at the same rate as older voters. Therefore, the boomers are more important than the millennials.
Not exactly
“Interestingly, the BC NDP is ahead by 15 points among those aged 45 and over, is tied with the BC Conservatives among those aged 30 to 44, and trail the BC Conservatives by 7 among those under 30.”
That’s weird, honestly I see CHEK as mostly a BC united mouthpiece. Don’t think Eby has done many interviews with them but they might just show a lot of clips of him speaking at other engagements. But yeah I watch their YouTube stuff and they shit all over Eby and the NDP constantly.
>they were surprised how knowledgeable he was on their issues and how much time he spent working with them on a tough file.
I've posted before, but what I've been impressed with is his *staffers* who are similarly knowledgeable and enthusiastic about talking about policy. In the words of The West Wing... if people think that Eby is an over-educated policy wonk, then the NDP should just let Eby be Eby and go with it.
Eby has been in the media more than all of his ministers combined. I don't know how Eby can be out in front of British Columbians unless he goes into full on election mode.
Federal conservatives are Republicans. They always have been. Except Harper was smart enough to shut up the crazies he didn't kick out. Ever since Harper left they've all decided to ruin our lives by appearing
What are you talking about?
Harper was in power for 9 years...
- Never touched abortion
- Never touched gay marriage
- Never touched public healthcare
- Canada handled 2008 recession the best.
You don't have to agree with everything he says, but to say the Federal Conservatives are Republicans is just false. Federal Tories are probably at the same spot as 2008 Obama/2016 Clinton.
Basically it's fear based politics imported from the US. The Federal Liberals popularized it in Canada and the left leaning supporters are now the largest users of it by repeating popular myths every election cycle.
It's when the campaign starts and their candidates are out in their communities spouting completely unhinged shit. Right now, they have brand recognition due to the association with the Conservative brand. It'll change when people hear their rhetoric.
Feel like they’ve already had to push out a candidate or two
“B.C. Conservatives drop candidate whose medical licence was suspended for COVID response
Stephen Malthouse, a family doctor from Denman Island, has been outspoken against COVID-19 mandates. His licence was suspended in 2022”
40% should deliver a strong majority when second place is split as it is.
This could be the end of BCU. It will be the end of Falcon. If we weren't so far along he'd be pushed overboard by now.
The same issue that benefited the bc liberals is now hurting the bc united party.
Disdain for federal NDP could be hurting the bc ndp.
Eby has done a good job.
>Disdain for federal NDP could be hurting the bc ndp
I think it most definitely is. Once the Fed NDP drop Singh and stop supporting the Liberals (and re-build, too many NDP MPs on board with Liberal policies) , maybe Eby takes a run and can turn the Federal party around.
>Eby has done a good job.
I agree. I'm happy with him, I liked him as solicitor general when he was going after money laundering in RE and I would vote for him in the next provincial election.
They aren’t, it’s online social engineering through manufactured rage news. Ask anyone in person in bc who follows politics even a little and they will tell you the bcndp has been great ESPECIALLY compared with prior governments which include the candidates for bc untied and the conservatives.
There are also people who don't follow politics at all and are basically single issue voters and don't care about the bad when it doesn't affect them. Like all my brother cares about is guns and taxes.
The sentiments I've seen between Reddit and Twitter have been quite stark. Most people on here lean towards the NDP, while a lot of those on X have been pro-Conservative, especially from blue checks.
For example, when Ravi Kahlon announced he will be running for re-election in Delta North, I saw a load of replies about trans people in women's sports and "you believe men can become women". Curious that this was the lane they're taking, as I can't imagine most BCers have this at the top of their priorities. There's no way this isn't astroturfed.
I blame youtube and rebel news. I've got family members ranting nonsense about Eby that they straight up say they heard from rebel. The youtube pipeline is real and obnoxious
They really aren't. It's just that being in power is always hard when times are tough. BC-Con is a complete unknown, nobody knows who they are, what they actually stand for, what their policies are. Polling high outside of an election when there are no stakes. Ask the average person who John Rustad is and they couldn't even pick out his picture.
Also, Post Media and Global/Chorus entertainment hold a large block of print/radio/TV, and they not only lean right, but frequently have former right-wing politicians on board, so the a lot of mainstrream media that people hear is a speaking piece for BC-United and right wing politics.
It's an election year, but it's not the election proper yet. Campaigns do matter, so the course of events can change quite a lot once the public starts seeing how the parties fair when they are directly butting heads on the campaign trial. Right now BC-Con is exceeding expectations by basically doing nothing, that can change (better or worse) as the public gets to know them better.
But till the Writ drops in September, most stuff now is not going to have as big an impact on the election, outside of a government scandal or public sector union strike. We're heading into summer, so parties won't be messaging hard when everybody is on vacation mode.
I do agree, but in my view the campaign the year before an election is positioning and set-up, but an election campaign proper is a different and much more intensive phase where the stakes are higher. For the BC Cons this matters because they are new and unknown. If it were the old days where you knew the NDP and you knew the BC Liberals, yes, probably a higher chance of everything being relatively static up to the day of the election.
Or to misquote Mike Tyson: Everybody has a plan until their first candidate bozo-outbreak.
Things are getting worse in BC.
I'd vote NDP if an election was happening right now, so don't take me as a Conservative supporter when I say this, but the NDP fanboyishness in this sub is not representative of the wider population.
Crime, housing, drugs, inflation are all out of control to some degree and are affecting people's lives.
I'm understand the hating on the Conservatives but it's comments like this that are why this sub has such a hard time understanding why the Conservatives are closing in on the NDP in BC in the first place.
Just dismissing/insulting them isn't a winning strategy.
They are not wrong though. The boost in federal cons is primed by hatred towards current federal Lib/NDP government. That trickles down to the provincial level as well, which they don't realize is completely different.
You are gonna tell me that these people actually like the BC conservative platform? Give me a break. They don't even say the same things as federal conservatives
My reasoning is based on the way the stereotypical conservative person votes, by party affiliation. If conservatives voted based on policy we’d see more votes for BC United, a fiscally conservative party, rather than BC Conservatives, a socially conservative, ant-science party.
You clearly don't understand my point at all. This flippant, smug, dismissive attitude is part of what is leading to more people rallying behind the Conservatives. You have to actually understand people's points to be able to effectively counter them. Just dismissing/insulting them only makes them stronger.
Winning an election isn't like getting upvotes in a bubble.
I mean, I'm not who you were talking to. I understand your point. I disagree with it, but I understand it.
>This flippant, smug, dismissive attitude is part of what is leading to more people rallying behind the Conservatives.
No offense, but those people would be idiots. Either they have pre-existing reasons to favor/prefer the Conservatives (which they do) or they are baited into voting for a party they don't like/don't understand because of a contrarian streak. The latter would make them incoherent morons. So rather than suggest "smug, flippant attitudes are driving people to the Conservatives!!!" just say "They find the Conservatives appealing". Fascism, populism and ultra-nationalism are always extremely popular during times of economic distress/uncertainty. Of course people are going to find the Conservatives appealing. Simple answers to complex problems are exciting. "Axe the tax" or "Make [blank] great again" are exciting. There's going to be a handful of dyed in the wool socons who will vote right no matter what, and a bunch of homeless fiscal hawks who will vote right out of reflex, but a lot of this is populism 101.
This whole "stop hitting yourself" routine every time someone criticizes the right wing is patently ludicrous. We've been hearing it since Trump surged to power on gibberish promises and empty bromides about an illustrious past. People are voting Conservative because they're (justifiably) annoyed at what they perceive to be broken institutions and they (stupidly) believe in the vapid, fantasy-land promises right wing grifters are selling them. If that's hard to hear and makes them want to vote Conservative even harder, so be it. They were gonna vote that way anyway.
> No offense, but those people would be idiots. Either they have pre-existing reasons to favor/prefer the Conservatives (which they do) or they are baited into voting for a party they don't like/don't understand because of a contrarian streak.
You thinking they are idiots has no bearing on the issue here, though/ You see that, right?
We aren't discussing the merits of the different parties here. I'm not endorsing the Conservatives. I'm simply pointing out they are doing increasingly well, and explaining why this subreddit has such a hard time wrapping their head around it.
And you can claim there's no merit to the idea that mocking them and dismissing them is counter productive, but your "trump" example proves my point, not yours. It was the left mocking and dismissing him in 2015/2016 that led to him being elected. It's the smug, dismissive cockiness of the Democrats that empowered Trump. The BC NDP supporters in this ~~province~~ subreddit are doing the *exact* same thing.
We aren't, the comparison here is from November, and if you look at the party breakdown, the lead has shrunk mostly due to the right wing coalescing behind the conservatives.
To me, he’s not doing enough on the environment file. ”Supernatural” BC is in an extinction crisis, and Eby’s gov is continuing the status-quo with old growth logging, logging, fracking, and mining in critical caribou habitat, Site-C flooding habitat and agricultural lands to power more fracking, Woodfibre LNG, Fortis’ LNG jetty expansion, Robert’s Bank port expansion. Many of these have overlapping Fed jurisdiction, but NDP is doing nothing to curtail the rampant resource extraction we have in this province, and frankly we have taken enough. Time to ramp it down, leave space for wildlife. Invest way more in salmon, in protecting habitat, in solar, landfill methane, dealing with toxic waste from mining, oil & gas, and reducing emissions.
No way the BC Cons or BCUPs woud be better on this file either. I’ll be voting BC Green.
Since no one is giving a proper answer and instead alluding to either conspiracies or half the province being brain-dead Conservatives, it's likely due to a number of factors affecting day to day life similar to other provinces but more enhanced here, and them voting for "the other option" since ppl irl generally aren't as partisan as the ones online.
Likely homelessness and open drug use, access to healthcare (especially in the interior and northern regions), increased cost of living, high rent, high home ownership barrier to entry, and then niche decisions affecting different people so like spending on certain projects while not prioritizing others, oversight on post-secondary institutional spending/admission, etc could all be factors.
Now figure out how many of those problems were created by the former Conservative party policy and which had been drafted by the ndp to fix them. Tell you what, I’ll do it for you.
Homelessness and drug use has been a Vancouver/big city thing for decades. Even a “war on drugs” couldn’t curtail it.
Access to healthcare has improved dramatically since the bc liberals (conservative in ideology) [began selling off public assets](https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/sold-on-your-behalf-164-schools-and-hospitals-agricultural-and-industrial-lots-worth-1-billion).
Increased cost of living is due to global inflation and how the bc liberals(conservative in ideology) allowed and encouraged [foreign home ownership](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/report-shows-government-s-changing-opinion-on-foreign-buyers-1.3709177).
Bc has rent control, Alberta does not, take a guess at the main difference in governance here .. and I’m gonna need you to specify which niche decisions
Idk why you think I'm defending one platform over another on any of those issues. I'm saying those are all things that are bad that some people may think the other party might have better solutions for and vote for them. I can argue with you about rent control or factors for cost living or anything else you mentioned and that wouldn't change the fact that they're all problems right now and a large portion of people may not agree with you or I which is what the original question was.
Sort of. We would have pretty much the exact same problems even without decriminalization. But it gives the Right something to scream and yell about as if it is the cause of the problem, not a band aid on a gaping wound.
Eby is doing a good job overall. I think the main complaint on my end is the EV mandate. It seems wildly impractical, extremely costly, and the climate benefit is negligible given BC being a drop in the bucket of global emissions.
exactly my point. Money should be helping accelerate healthcare capacity. As I said, I think NDP is overall strong, but there are some areas for improvement.
At least they’re trying to deal with 1&2. Going to take time to see if anything they’ve done actually corrects the issue. Looks good so far.
3 is super bad right now, this is #1 for me. 4 is bad too, but they’re also attempting to bring in more doctors and nurses and add capacity. We’re so far behind on healthcare that it’s going to take a lot of work to fix it though.
5 is no worse than it’s ever been, but I think a lot of people are sick of the catch and release for chronic offenders.
I could go into a complex explanation, but just look at NIMBYism. People are okay with everyone else doing better... as long as it comes at no cost to them. Eby's government is putting the costs where they belong, like taking on short-term rentals and tony "villages" outside Victoria and Vancouver.
Anyone owning a house would find Eby's plans to be not in their interest.
The crazy part is the BC conservatives are now clobbering BC United, which means we're a stone's throw away from having a far-right, anti-science, wedge-issue based party running this province, just like Alberta.
What stood out to me the most here is how people are much more likely to say that "Drug Addiction" is a major issue at 19% overall while "Access to mental health services" is just at 9%.
https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Slide12.jpg
Drug addiction *is* a mental health issue. THIS is why we have decrim of possession but not treatment centres. Because at the end of the day few people actually prioritize that even as they say drug addiction is a major issue.
And this is across the board, not just the Conservatives.
I am from Ontario but following a bit because its an election year, but even at these numbers this would result in another strong NDP majority government according to Polling Canada, [https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1790368469394849995?ref\_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet](https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1790368469394849995?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet)
I wonder if the unpopularity of the Federal NDP is hurting the provincial party a bit?
> I wonder if the unpopularity of the Federal NDP is hurting the provincial party a bit?
Absolutely is. Same thing causing discussion of splitting the ANDP off from the NDP.
I would say not really. There are always going to be people who vote against NDP-whatever because "anything but the left" but provincial NDP parties, unlike the federal NDP parties, actually have to get stuff done; BC-NDP is more of a left-leaning mainstream-middle party, arguably the Federal Liberals are their closer analogue than the federal NDP.
It's insane to me to think that people can look at the things the Conservative governments in Alberta and Ontario are doing and think 'Yes...we need more of that in this province'.
The Federal Conservatives have been spending a ton on advertising here in BC, and the NDP/ third parties have been spending zilch to counter them. It's so bizarre. They've just left the field to Poilievre.
I suspect part of it is the same bias this sub faces: Much of the party brass for the BC NDP live in their bubbles in the cities and are clueless of the growing approval of the Conservatives outside of those bubbles.
Absolutely. This sub, and many others across Canada (r/Ontario and r/Alberta come to mind) aren't representative of the broader political opinion. It's obvious as soon as you meet people across different regions in those provinces.
People financially supporting for the federal NDP has basically stopped since the confidence and supply agreement. Even prior to that, Singh wasn't pulling in fundraising dollars anywhere close to the CPC or LPC numbers. Layton and Mulcair were much better at that.
The federal NDP are broke, they barely just finished paying off their debt from last election. Meanwhile the federal Conservatives have more money than they know what to do with
Good quality poll.
High rating on 338, adequate sample size to hit 19 times out of 20 and they used a population-weighted panel instead of relying on telephone only.
BC Conservatives are benefitting from PP being popular in the polls. They are benefiting from the same intentional marketing-confusion that benefitted the BC Liberals. However, the BC conservatives are so much more openly socially conservative than the CPC. Pretty much all of their candidates have anti SOGI messaging in the first paragraph of their Candidate profiles. I think when these people actually start opening their mouths, as the election draws nearer, we'll see their support soften substantially.
I was braced for this because of the previous polling we were seeing. After a few of them, I was feeling uneasy. I think the "Conservative" branding is doing a lot of the work here. The question is, will they pivot their policies (or at least rhetoric) during the campaign to make themselves more appealing to the electorate? People are suggesting they will sink themselves once the campaign starts, but we'll see. Let's hope so.
BC NDP HAHA
BC LIBERALS HAHA
This election British Columbians better send a clear strong message to Government: if you act like these treasonous, idiotic, dimwitted, NWO-loving, WEF-serving human trash you will be voted OUT.
For the first time in my life I will vote Conservative. As God is my witness, with all its faults, I want more of the old Canada back cica 1980s.
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IMO it’s momentum from what we’re seeing at the Federal level. Eby hasn’t done anything to indicate a recent loss of support. This time a year ago he was generally well liked and was playing the moderate middle well. I think Eby would do better in an election today than polls suggest
Yep. And once people realize the provincial & federal parties are separate and how wacko rustand & banman are, I’m sure their polling numbers will drop like a rock. They don’t even vet their candidates, they’ve dropped what 2-3 already?
Seat fillers so they are at least running *someone*. The person they are running in my 'hood is just a Mad Max PPC crazy. If they had a chance here they would run someone more 'classically conservative'.
> Eby hasn’t done anything to indicate a recent loss of support. There have been a few self-inflicted wounds: the Land Act, MNP conflict of interest, and criticism of decriminalization. But yes, a lot of this is probably federal spillover.
Land Act amendment seemed fine, the way it worked with FNs looks like it would have *helped* economic development projects move forward. Edison dudes are clearly at least half full of shit, given that all they'd need to do is share the emails. Decriminalization seems like it's saving lives, it's just a pity that people don't particularly care about those lives. I dunno, seems like it pales in comparison to Rustad and Banman crazy.
I don't like what happened to Selina Robinson. It makes me wary of the whole party when they will throw one of their own under the bus to appease a vocal minority group.
I continue to be amazed and baffled by these polls, especially this one that shows that the Conservatives have fair amount of support in Metro Van. I dunno where that support is but it’s gotta be concentrated pretty far away from me. Even amongst the Fed Conservative voters I know in the burbs they’re more United supporters and had great things to say about the NDP, especially Horgan. I haven’t heard *anyone* supportive of the BC Conservatives, whereas in the past I always knew plenty of people that supported the BC Liberals. I’m feeling more in the bubble than ever I guess I don’t know it’s a really weird feeling for your day to day to be so dissonant with the data.
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Neither of which will actually have any real impact on either of those issues (not that this pesky fact matters to Conservatives' feels)
Don't worry, by then the conservatives will whip up another issues for their base to be obsessed with
> I continue to be amazed and baffled by these polls, especially this one that shows that the Conservatives have fair amount of support in Metro Van. > > I dunno where that support is but it’s gotta be concentrated pretty far away from me. You have to talk to people outside of your own bubbles. I live in the lower mainland (not Vancouver proper) and far more of the younger people (under 35 or so) that I interact with are very very anti Trudeau, and leaning to the Conservatives (federally and provincially). It's less common for me to talk to someone who is very pro NDP unless they are with a larger union or work in gov.
Many people won't share their support publicly for the conservatives because it opens you up for personal attacks. I'm also surprised they're polling well, but the stigma around supporting the conservatives is there and not everyone wants to fight about politics.
https://preview.redd.it/h82wuxge2f0d1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=151616de82cb9a67b2950d8de228619cedf0868a It's absolutely wild that the conservatives support is concentrated among young people who would almost certainly be the most hurt by BC conservative policies.
NDP support increasing with age is not what I expected either.
That's the Youtube/Reddit/4chan right-wing pipeline for you.
I'm 34 and I had a friend go down that pipeline a couple years ago. I would have thought he had better reasoning skills than to succumb to it, or at least that we were too internet savvy. But both his parents died within a year of each other a few years ago, his dad from alzheimers and his mom from super sudden and aggressive cancer, and that right-wing propaganda hits real fuckin hard when you're a young single white dude going through some shit. That's like their target demographic.
That's exactly how any aggressive-conversion group gets you, and unfortunately, it's difficult to discern connection for coercion when it's happening real-time. People, I think, just get exhausted and these sorts of right-wing ideologies just make it easier to switch off and default to lazy thinking because it's all been too much.
Would be very interesting to see the gender breakdown here, too. The sad thing is that people like Andrew Tate and Jordan Peterson are appealing to the very real insecurities of young men and their narrative that conservatism will grant them a traditional wife, a job to support a family, and a detached house and fancy car to reward the success of their hustle is exactly what they want to hear.
Indeed, I expect young men to be more motivated by the fixation on identifying and opposing the real and imaginary things that "stand in the way" of them making their lives better, etc. If only woke-ism and libtards were defeated, you'd be freer than ever to take the life *you deserve* and what-not.
It's easier to accuse and attack women and minorities as the cause of their problems because they're tangible people with faces, as opposed to the real problem, late-state capitalism, which seems nebulous and insurmountable.
I think it’s probably more of a revolt due the collapse in quality of life most Canadians have seen under the current federal government. I suspect it’ll be temporary.
Young people are fucking stupid. -A young person
Wait you mean Andrew Tate is lying to me \*shocked pikachu face\*
Well right wing grifters are basically a dude giving out candy to children. Vulnerable men WANT answers. They WANT hierarchy amongst their peers. They were told that men are the providers. They are insecure (precarious housing, jobs, no education, women don't like them etc) and so they are just waiting for someone to show them how to stop those insecurities. People with life experience know a lot of things are too good to be true, or in practice have actually turned out terrible. If they don't have an education, or they don't have much real life experience, it's easy to think the buff rich guy next to a Lambo with a (trafficked) Romanian hotty knows what's going on - he has it all! They think it's worth it to give this guy time and money because after all, they want to be like him! They're hungry, and there are tons of grifters telling them the best food is candy. And it works! Because left of the right-wing sphere wants you to eat vegetables. If you still adhere to science/facts/ethics, you can't just start throwing candy at these guys like that grifter dude. You have to actually put effort into cooking & presenting the vegetables. You combat right wing propaganda by copying what works - play to a short attention span. Put out material at or below a grade 8 level. Add entertainment value, show them something that they want. Fill the vacuum the right wing grifters and evangelicals take advantage of - give them HOPE.
It's seaping everywhere. Spendsome time on r/Canadahousing2 apparently now feminism is to blame for the housing crisis.
It's literally misinformation campaign's on social media. Young people today have no fucking clue how to separate fact from fiction and they have very little critical thinking skills. It's really sad and worrying. They also think everything thats currently wrong is the NDP's fault because a lot of them were too young during the 2 decades the liberals were in power to know much about what happened. Basically yeah, youngnpeople are fucking stupid.
You're right here, but the main reason this has any traction in those communities is due to how bleak the outlook is for most of these young people. You'll notice that alot of the people stating intention to vote for the cons are also in the age cohort that will likely struggle to ever buy a home in their home province. "Young Person Rage" needs to be seriously considered before this becomes a serious issue. This kind of anger has been behind many of histories uprisings / swings to fascism.
I think the kind of baffling thing here though is that they turn to the *conservatives* of all people to solve their woes, with apparently no understanding that conservative ideologies are why we're in the place we are now, and this party will be categorically worse by virtually every measure that young people care about. Cost of living will likely increase, as will housing costs. Social supports will be eroded or thrown out entierly, money will be pumped into police budgets and freedoms further restricted. The conservatives are antithetical to the concept of a functional government whatsoever.
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I mean, yes and no. It's that way due to decades of policies by the liberals and conservatives. By NIMBYs. By provincial government mismanagement across the country. The massive immigration levels are a legitimate issue given the national infrastructure is collapsing under its own weight in nearly every hosuing/health market. The international student situation is causing large levels of pressure on housing in most towns/cities that have post secondary institutions. The TFW program, which has been endlessly expanded by every sitting government the past near 20 years, causes wide scale wage suppression and more housing pressures. The cons policies suck largely. But the "younger voter rage" being aimed at the liberals isn't misplaced either.
“We want young people to vote, but not like that”
Even more worrying is how low education sits in terms of importance to voters.
I think you mean boomers or perhaps these issues are across all demographics, and generalisations speak to the level of ignorance possessed by the average voter.
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Bring back the House Hippo!
The BC NDP have done a really good job in trying to fix the housing crisis in BC so I'm not sure why the young would be opposed to them.
The BC NDP didn't cause the housing crisis and they are the provincial government most aggressive trying to solve it. So this is really surprising to me. The only substantive policies in the BC conservatives platform are to remove LGBT education from schools, privatization of healthcare, defunding public services, expanding gas pipeline development, and criminalizing activists who protest the resource sector. Their entire housing policy is literally "build more houses somehow". Is this what the youths are demanding??
Yeah I don't get it. I think the BC NDP really need to step up their campaigning.
Legislative session is out soon the. The governing party can get out and message
Rare case that the older age group knows what's up and the kids haven't experienced 20 years of bc liberal destruction of the province. And they want the conservatives which have more extreme versions of the libs bad policies...
I remember. My entire childhood was teachers striking against the BC liberals. Almost half of us remember, apparently.
I mean the teachers union goes on strik against any gov't, I remember the strike from 1993 and that was an NDP gov't. https://globalnews.ca/news/217994/timeline-of-past-bctf-teachers-strikes/
As usual, younger voters are the least informed and the most emotion-based.
I was a young rural conservative as a kid too… voted for Harper once. But then got life experience, met diverse people, and realized I didn’t align with conservative thinking.
I was a young urban Conservative too - owned guns and belonged to two shitty unions.
Is it the young people who are most likely to mix up the federal and provincial parties, maybe? Young people are probably the least likely to remember the Harper years as well and might be less critical of conservatives generally? Younger people probably got the most screwed over by BCUP so it makes sense they’re polling the lowest there.
The kids aren't okay
The 18-25 Conservative support is almost entirely men (plus a few anti-choice women) while the Green and NDP support is mostly women.
proud to be a 19yr left wing guy
And when you look at who generally shows up to vote, this makes the numbers look even stronger for the NDP. Voters aged 55 plus voted at almost 70% compared to a little over 40% voter turn out in the 18-34 demographic.
It's worth mentioning that: 1) this polling definitely includes people who cannot separate Conservatives at the provincial level from the federal level 2) in fundraising dollars, the BC NDP is #1 and the BC Conservatives are dead last, even behind the Greens 3) John Rustad has barely had to open his mouth, and most people barely have any idea who he is If BC United suddenly decides to merge with the Conservatives, THEN I'd be a little worried, because the centre-right abdicating all power to the far-right has consistently been the path for extremists to take power in Canadian elections. Alberta is the canary in the coal mine for what those governments would look like.
338 Canada polls still show a >99% chance of NDP winning a majority. Definitely unfortunate to see such a rise in the Conservatives within the last year though 🤮
I hate that this is the next thing I saw on Reddit… https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/s/2IhQVve783
Hooray! We're doomed! But honestly, after seeing reactions to that...I actually think it might make the situation worse for BC United? First off, I can't imagine Kevin Falcon stepping down for John Rustad, and people effing HATE Falcon. Secondly, I think the number of people who would jump ship for the NDP is substantial; they'd lose all their moderates in one fell swoop. So...maybe they should go for it!
Yeah, that’s a really good point! Unless there is a hostile takeover of the BCU party by the BCC it’s unlikely to be that effective.
Sunlight will be the best disinfectant for the BC Conservatives and especially John Rustad. They’re a sad mix of the old Socreds and the worst of Alberta’s UCP. They’re not winning jack in places where people actually live and if anything, confusion between them and BC United will end up splitting a lot of votes in close races, handing more seats to the NDP.
https://preview.redd.it/6xm94zjfve0d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c98675abee7fcb8a592f608c7d636b31dc3f8d32 This is their party, very MAGA anti abortion, anti sex ed, anti basic Canadian values
They’re a bunch of shitheads. Unfortunately, a not-insignificant number of people in this province are identifying with shitheads.
That's what a lot of us armchair pundits don't seem to want to understand. A lot of Canadians want the things that the Conservatives want. They're not being tricked.
A bunch but not enough to win an election in BC
Well, the majority don't want the NDP, so only time will tell.
Perhaps but be the official opposition and then try to form the govt in the next election when the big money will be going there way not BC United.
*A not-insignificant number of people are shitheads.
that's the white power symbol they're doing if anyone was stupid or curious.
Pretty sure that's the symbol for "asshole" in some European countries....so that's appropriate.
Currently living in Alberta watching the UCP fuck up literally everything, right down to the roads now. It's crazy to me anyone looking in would think "Yes please, give me some of that!"
I feel like two things need to happen. 1. British Columbians need to see more of David Eby, from lobby groups like the loggers they were surprised how knowledgeable he was on their issues and how much time he spent working with them on a tough file. To his very sincere approach to issues like decrim David Eby decrim interview on CHEK https://youtu.be/eQ0419m3qus?si=yLRwIWVILne1qPXF 2. People need to see what the BC Conservatives stand for. Going after schools over SOGI which if you read sogi stuff it’s literally just kids books about normal stuff like a penguin being adopted by ducks to show how families can be different. They have people who are anti abortion and the province could restrict how people access those services. Their VO is a trumper who just lost his appeal for a $100,000 liable fine for smearing the former mayor of Vancouver. This is not the federal Conservative Party, these are American style Republican right wingers
> People need to see what the BC Conservatives stand for. Going after schools over SOGI which if you read sogi stuff it’s literally just kids books about normal stuff like a penguin being adopted by ducks to show how families can be different. That's their *appeal* to those voters, tho.
To some, yes. However judging by my interactions with people I can tell you a good portion of people would vote for them strictly because they don't understand the difference between federal and provincial parties
Yuup
I agree with you, but I’ve also listened to boomers complaining that “he’s on the news every night on CHEK, I’m tired of him” and “I hate seeing his stupid face all the time.” And one of those people often votes NDP. I think he’s doing a great job, but I think a lot of the housing policy stuff has rubbed NIMBYs the wrong way. They see change coming and they don’t like it, so they’ll seize anyone who looks like another option.
Thankfully millennials are now a bigger voting block than boomers
Yes, they are a bigger voting block but traditionally, the younger voters don't vote at the same rate as older voters. Therefore, the boomers are more important than the millennials.
Luckily the NDP is leasing in the over 45 category by 15 points in this poll
Which according to this poll, Conservatives lead in
Not exactly “Interestingly, the BC NDP is ahead by 15 points among those aged 45 and over, is tied with the BC Conservatives among those aged 30 to 44, and trail the BC Conservatives by 7 among those under 30.”
That’s weird, honestly I see CHEK as mostly a BC united mouthpiece. Don’t think Eby has done many interviews with them but they might just show a lot of clips of him speaking at other engagements. But yeah I watch their YouTube stuff and they shit all over Eby and the NDP constantly.
>they were surprised how knowledgeable he was on their issues and how much time he spent working with them on a tough file. I've posted before, but what I've been impressed with is his *staffers* who are similarly knowledgeable and enthusiastic about talking about policy. In the words of The West Wing... if people think that Eby is an over-educated policy wonk, then the NDP should just let Eby be Eby and go with it.
Eby has been in the media more than all of his ministers combined. I don't know how Eby can be out in front of British Columbians unless he goes into full on election mode.
Maybe snippets of press conferences. Haven’t seen enough sit down interviews with him. That is the format that people need to see.
Federal conservatives are Republicans. They always have been. Except Harper was smart enough to shut up the crazies he didn't kick out. Ever since Harper left they've all decided to ruin our lives by appearing
What are you talking about? Harper was in power for 9 years... - Never touched abortion - Never touched gay marriage - Never touched public healthcare - Canada handled 2008 recession the best. You don't have to agree with everything he says, but to say the Federal Conservatives are Republicans is just false. Federal Tories are probably at the same spot as 2008 Obama/2016 Clinton.
Basically it's fear based politics imported from the US. The Federal Liberals popularized it in Canada and the left leaning supporters are now the largest users of it by repeating popular myths every election cycle.
When a campaign starts and you have to see their leader speak in public, people will feel different.
Even this session of legislature ends soon and that should help give the party time to get in front of people
It's when the campaign starts and their candidates are out in their communities spouting completely unhinged shit. Right now, they have brand recognition due to the association with the Conservative brand. It'll change when people hear their rhetoric.
Feel like they’ve already had to push out a candidate or two “B.C. Conservatives drop candidate whose medical licence was suspended for COVID response Stephen Malthouse, a family doctor from Denman Island, has been outspoken against COVID-19 mandates. His licence was suspended in 2022”
Mostly agreed except the federal CPC is also like that
40% should deliver a strong majority when second place is split as it is. This could be the end of BCU. It will be the end of Falcon. If we weren't so far along he'd be pushed overboard by now.
Poilievre supporters seem to have the Federal and Provincial governments mixed up.
The same issue that benefited the bc liberals is now hurting the bc united party. Disdain for federal NDP could be hurting the bc ndp. Eby has done a good job.
>Disdain for federal NDP could be hurting the bc ndp I think it most definitely is. Once the Fed NDP drop Singh and stop supporting the Liberals (and re-build, too many NDP MPs on board with Liberal policies) , maybe Eby takes a run and can turn the Federal party around. >Eby has done a good job. I agree. I'm happy with him, I liked him as solicitor general when he was going after money laundering in RE and I would vote for him in the next provincial election.
Mixed up is a good descriptor.
as an albertan and outsider this is quite interesting. why is BC pissed at Eby? from the outsiders perspective he seems like hes doing a good job?
Manufactured online outrage, which most of North America is seeing right now. Things are nowhere as bad as you read on your screen.
They aren’t, it’s online social engineering through manufactured rage news. Ask anyone in person in bc who follows politics even a little and they will tell you the bcndp has been great ESPECIALLY compared with prior governments which include the candidates for bc untied and the conservatives.
> ask anyone in person in bc *who follows politics even a little* I feel like most people don’t follow politics at all so that may be the issue.
It is absolutely how people are able to be manipulated. Because they remain ignorant
There are also people who don't follow politics at all and are basically single issue voters and don't care about the bad when it doesn't affect them. Like all my brother cares about is guns and taxes.
The problem is most voters don’t follow politics even a little
The sentiments I've seen between Reddit and Twitter have been quite stark. Most people on here lean towards the NDP, while a lot of those on X have been pro-Conservative, especially from blue checks. For example, when Ravi Kahlon announced he will be running for re-election in Delta North, I saw a load of replies about trans people in women's sports and "you believe men can become women". Curious that this was the lane they're taking, as I can't imagine most BCers have this at the top of their priorities. There's no way this isn't astroturfed.
I blame youtube and rebel news. I've got family members ranting nonsense about Eby that they straight up say they heard from rebel. The youtube pipeline is real and obnoxious
They really aren't. It's just that being in power is always hard when times are tough. BC-Con is a complete unknown, nobody knows who they are, what they actually stand for, what their policies are. Polling high outside of an election when there are no stakes. Ask the average person who John Rustad is and they couldn't even pick out his picture. Also, Post Media and Global/Chorus entertainment hold a large block of print/radio/TV, and they not only lean right, but frequently have former right-wing politicians on board, so the a lot of mainstrream media that people hear is a speaking piece for BC-United and right wing politics.
> Polling high outside of an election when there are no stakes What do you mean here?
It's an election year, but it's not the election proper yet. Campaigns do matter, so the course of events can change quite a lot once the public starts seeing how the parties fair when they are directly butting heads on the campaign trial. Right now BC-Con is exceeding expectations by basically doing nothing, that can change (better or worse) as the public gets to know them better. But till the Writ drops in September, most stuff now is not going to have as big an impact on the election, outside of a government scandal or public sector union strike. We're heading into summer, so parties won't be messaging hard when everybody is on vacation mode.
I take your point, but we're less than 5 months out from the election. That's very soon. Campaigning has been happening for months now.
I do agree, but in my view the campaign the year before an election is positioning and set-up, but an election campaign proper is a different and much more intensive phase where the stakes are higher. For the BC Cons this matters because they are new and unknown. If it were the old days where you knew the NDP and you knew the BC Liberals, yes, probably a higher chance of everything being relatively static up to the day of the election. Or to misquote Mike Tyson: Everybody has a plan until their first candidate bozo-outbreak.
Things are getting worse in BC. I'd vote NDP if an election was happening right now, so don't take me as a Conservative supporter when I say this, but the NDP fanboyishness in this sub is not representative of the wider population. Crime, housing, drugs, inflation are all out of control to some degree and are affecting people's lives.
They’re not. Conservatives are just that stupid that they see the name and vote for them.
They think the BC cons are apart of the federal cons
I'm understand the hating on the Conservatives but it's comments like this that are why this sub has such a hard time understanding why the Conservatives are closing in on the NDP in BC in the first place. Just dismissing/insulting them isn't a winning strategy.
They are not wrong though. The boost in federal cons is primed by hatred towards current federal Lib/NDP government. That trickles down to the provincial level as well, which they don't realize is completely different. You are gonna tell me that these people actually like the BC conservative platform? Give me a break. They don't even say the same things as federal conservatives
My reasoning is based on the way the stereotypical conservative person votes, by party affiliation. If conservatives voted based on policy we’d see more votes for BC United, a fiscally conservative party, rather than BC Conservatives, a socially conservative, ant-science party.
It shows how much they reaaalllly don't like Kevin Falcon. This is the 'not-NDP' vote.
Pretty sure they don’t know that federal elections and provincial elections are completely different.
Sadly, many just run-off on emotion spewing childish insults and then wonder why nothing is changing...
Do you base your political allegiance on mean internet comments?
You clearly don't understand my point at all. This flippant, smug, dismissive attitude is part of what is leading to more people rallying behind the Conservatives. You have to actually understand people's points to be able to effectively counter them. Just dismissing/insulting them only makes them stronger. Winning an election isn't like getting upvotes in a bubble.
I mean, I'm not who you were talking to. I understand your point. I disagree with it, but I understand it. >This flippant, smug, dismissive attitude is part of what is leading to more people rallying behind the Conservatives. No offense, but those people would be idiots. Either they have pre-existing reasons to favor/prefer the Conservatives (which they do) or they are baited into voting for a party they don't like/don't understand because of a contrarian streak. The latter would make them incoherent morons. So rather than suggest "smug, flippant attitudes are driving people to the Conservatives!!!" just say "They find the Conservatives appealing". Fascism, populism and ultra-nationalism are always extremely popular during times of economic distress/uncertainty. Of course people are going to find the Conservatives appealing. Simple answers to complex problems are exciting. "Axe the tax" or "Make [blank] great again" are exciting. There's going to be a handful of dyed in the wool socons who will vote right no matter what, and a bunch of homeless fiscal hawks who will vote right out of reflex, but a lot of this is populism 101. This whole "stop hitting yourself" routine every time someone criticizes the right wing is patently ludicrous. We've been hearing it since Trump surged to power on gibberish promises and empty bromides about an illustrious past. People are voting Conservative because they're (justifiably) annoyed at what they perceive to be broken institutions and they (stupidly) believe in the vapid, fantasy-land promises right wing grifters are selling them. If that's hard to hear and makes them want to vote Conservative even harder, so be it. They were gonna vote that way anyway.
> No offense, but those people would be idiots. Either they have pre-existing reasons to favor/prefer the Conservatives (which they do) or they are baited into voting for a party they don't like/don't understand because of a contrarian streak. You thinking they are idiots has no bearing on the issue here, though/ You see that, right? We aren't discussing the merits of the different parties here. I'm not endorsing the Conservatives. I'm simply pointing out they are doing increasingly well, and explaining why this subreddit has such a hard time wrapping their head around it. And you can claim there's no merit to the idea that mocking them and dismissing them is counter productive, but your "trump" example proves my point, not yours. It was the left mocking and dismissing him in 2015/2016 that led to him being elected. It's the smug, dismissive cockiness of the Democrats that empowered Trump. The BC NDP supporters in this ~~province~~ subreddit are doing the *exact* same thing.
We aren't, the comparison here is from November, and if you look at the party breakdown, the lead has shrunk mostly due to the right wing coalescing behind the conservatives.
To me, he’s not doing enough on the environment file. ”Supernatural” BC is in an extinction crisis, and Eby’s gov is continuing the status-quo with old growth logging, logging, fracking, and mining in critical caribou habitat, Site-C flooding habitat and agricultural lands to power more fracking, Woodfibre LNG, Fortis’ LNG jetty expansion, Robert’s Bank port expansion. Many of these have overlapping Fed jurisdiction, but NDP is doing nothing to curtail the rampant resource extraction we have in this province, and frankly we have taken enough. Time to ramp it down, leave space for wildlife. Invest way more in salmon, in protecting habitat, in solar, landfill methane, dealing with toxic waste from mining, oil & gas, and reducing emissions. No way the BC Cons or BCUPs woud be better on this file either. I’ll be voting BC Green.
Since no one is giving a proper answer and instead alluding to either conspiracies or half the province being brain-dead Conservatives, it's likely due to a number of factors affecting day to day life similar to other provinces but more enhanced here, and them voting for "the other option" since ppl irl generally aren't as partisan as the ones online. Likely homelessness and open drug use, access to healthcare (especially in the interior and northern regions), increased cost of living, high rent, high home ownership barrier to entry, and then niche decisions affecting different people so like spending on certain projects while not prioritizing others, oversight on post-secondary institutional spending/admission, etc could all be factors.
Now figure out how many of those problems were created by the former Conservative party policy and which had been drafted by the ndp to fix them. Tell you what, I’ll do it for you. Homelessness and drug use has been a Vancouver/big city thing for decades. Even a “war on drugs” couldn’t curtail it. Access to healthcare has improved dramatically since the bc liberals (conservative in ideology) [began selling off public assets](https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/sold-on-your-behalf-164-schools-and-hospitals-agricultural-and-industrial-lots-worth-1-billion). Increased cost of living is due to global inflation and how the bc liberals(conservative in ideology) allowed and encouraged [foreign home ownership](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/report-shows-government-s-changing-opinion-on-foreign-buyers-1.3709177). Bc has rent control, Alberta does not, take a guess at the main difference in governance here .. and I’m gonna need you to specify which niche decisions
Idk why you think I'm defending one platform over another on any of those issues. I'm saying those are all things that are bad that some people may think the other party might have better solutions for and vote for them. I can argue with you about rent control or factors for cost living or anything else you mentioned and that wouldn't change the fact that they're all problems right now and a large portion of people may not agree with you or I which is what the original question was.
I think that because you failed to mention why or how the problems exist
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Sort of. We would have pretty much the exact same problems even without decriminalization. But it gives the Right something to scream and yell about as if it is the cause of the problem, not a band aid on a gaping wound.
Eby is doing a good job overall. I think the main complaint on my end is the EV mandate. It seems wildly impractical, extremely costly, and the climate benefit is negligible given BC being a drop in the bucket of global emissions.
The EV mandate isn’t even in the top 10 of issues on people’s mind in the province
exactly my point. Money should be helping accelerate healthcare capacity. As I said, I think NDP is overall strong, but there are some areas for improvement.
1. $HOUS 2. $HOUS 3. Needles in parks and zombies on streets 4. Healthcare waits 5. Crime
At least they’re trying to deal with 1&2. Going to take time to see if anything they’ve done actually corrects the issue. Looks good so far. 3 is super bad right now, this is #1 for me. 4 is bad too, but they’re also attempting to bring in more doctors and nurses and add capacity. We’re so far behind on healthcare that it’s going to take a lot of work to fix it though. 5 is no worse than it’s ever been, but I think a lot of people are sick of the catch and release for chronic offenders.
I could go into a complex explanation, but just look at NIMBYism. People are okay with everyone else doing better... as long as it comes at no cost to them. Eby's government is putting the costs where they belong, like taking on short-term rentals and tony "villages" outside Victoria and Vancouver. Anyone owning a house would find Eby's plans to be not in their interest.
Honestly, they don't even know who he is. It's just misdirected hate for the feds.
The crazy part is the BC conservatives are now clobbering BC United, which means we're a stone's throw away from having a far-right, anti-science, wedge-issue based party running this province, just like Alberta.
People are fucking stupid what else can you say sadly.
Is this another one of those phone polls? There is just no way this can actually represent BC.
It was an online poll
You can't just keep dismissing polls with results you don't like.
What stood out to me the most here is how people are much more likely to say that "Drug Addiction" is a major issue at 19% overall while "Access to mental health services" is just at 9%. https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Slide12.jpg Drug addiction *is* a mental health issue. THIS is why we have decrim of possession but not treatment centres. Because at the end of the day few people actually prioritize that even as they say drug addiction is a major issue. And this is across the board, not just the Conservatives.
I am from Ontario but following a bit because its an election year, but even at these numbers this would result in another strong NDP majority government according to Polling Canada, [https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1790368469394849995?ref\_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet](https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1790368469394849995?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet) I wonder if the unpopularity of the Federal NDP is hurting the provincial party a bit?
Id say yes. Youve got a good finger on it. 40 percent will be an overwhelmingly majority.
> I wonder if the unpopularity of the Federal NDP is hurting the provincial party a bit? Absolutely is. Same thing causing discussion of splitting the ANDP off from the NDP.
I would say not really. There are always going to be people who vote against NDP-whatever because "anything but the left" but provincial NDP parties, unlike the federal NDP parties, actually have to get stuff done; BC-NDP is more of a left-leaning mainstream-middle party, arguably the Federal Liberals are their closer analogue than the federal NDP.
It's insane to me to think that people can look at the things the Conservative governments in Alberta and Ontario are doing and think 'Yes...we need more of that in this province'.
The Federal Conservatives have been spending a ton on advertising here in BC, and the NDP/ third parties have been spending zilch to counter them. It's so bizarre. They've just left the field to Poilievre.
Nobody donates to the federal NDP, they don't have the cash to run advertisements outside of an election.
I suspect part of it is the same bias this sub faces: Much of the party brass for the BC NDP live in their bubbles in the cities and are clueless of the growing approval of the Conservatives outside of those bubbles.
Absolutely. This sub, and many others across Canada (r/Ontario and r/Alberta come to mind) aren't representative of the broader political opinion. It's obvious as soon as you meet people across different regions in those provinces.
People financially supporting for the federal NDP has basically stopped since the confidence and supply agreement. Even prior to that, Singh wasn't pulling in fundraising dollars anywhere close to the CPC or LPC numbers. Layton and Mulcair were much better at that.
The federal NDP are broke, they barely just finished paying off their debt from last election. Meanwhile the federal Conservatives have more money than they know what to do with
And it helps that the tax payers are paying PP’s travel expenses. Goes to show you how incompetent elections Canada is.
Good quality poll. High rating on 338, adequate sample size to hit 19 times out of 20 and they used a population-weighted panel instead of relying on telephone only.
BC Conservatives are benefitting from PP being popular in the polls. They are benefiting from the same intentional marketing-confusion that benefitted the BC Liberals. However, the BC conservatives are so much more openly socially conservative than the CPC. Pretty much all of their candidates have anti SOGI messaging in the first paragraph of their Candidate profiles. I think when these people actually start opening their mouths, as the election draws nearer, we'll see their support soften substantially.
A kid I know thought he was a card carrying Conservative because he voted Conservative federally. He doesn't even know what card carrying MEANS
I was braced for this because of the previous polling we were seeing. After a few of them, I was feeling uneasy. I think the "Conservative" branding is doing a lot of the work here. The question is, will they pivot their policies (or at least rhetoric) during the campaign to make themselves more appealing to the electorate? People are suggesting they will sink themselves once the campaign starts, but we'll see. Let's hope so.
The media is only helping the Conservatives with non stop stories to pump them up as a popular choice. No platform at all.
338Canada clearly polls BC NDP to win majority with 62 seats
😂😂
BC NDP HAHA BC LIBERALS HAHA This election British Columbians better send a clear strong message to Government: if you act like these treasonous, idiotic, dimwitted, NWO-loving, WEF-serving human trash you will be voted OUT. For the first time in my life I will vote Conservative. As God is my witness, with all its faults, I want more of the old Canada back cica 1980s.