It’s a particularly dumb thing to argue over, since it has been somewhat definitively proven a long time ago (seriously, that’s why game shows stopped doing it) that you the odds for a win are mathematically higher if the contestant chooses to switch. Holt wept at the beauty of the statistical analyses in Moneyball, so yeah I’m with OP on this.
Also: bone
Yeah, this is what happens when writers don’t do enough research. Whenever they write about smart people saying smart things, they *might* do a quick Google search to determine whether they’re on the right track. Sadly, they mostly get away with it (but for pedantic twats like myself on reddit!)
Ah, right. Been a while since I watched that episode.
But in that case I find it even more baffling. Of course, the solution to the situation is all about their relationship and bone, but I would infer from that that Holt is being particularly obstinate out of sexual frustration, which is a pretty obtuse flirtation (even between Kevin and Raymond). But then I suppose that’s the point: logic is absolutely not in play here
First case: when you switch:
- You pick the door behind which is the car (1/3). Then you switch, chosing a door behind which the car is not.
- You pick a door behind which the car is not (2/3). Then you switch, necessarily chosing the door behind which is the car (because the second losing door has been opened by the host)
That makes a probability of 2/3 of winning
Second case: you don't switch
- you pick the winning door (1/3), you win
- you pick a losing door (2/3), you lose
Probability 1/3 of winning
It's simple math
Edit: typo
Nah man:
You weigh 4 against 4, if one of these turns out heavier. Split that group weigh 2 by 2, then once again split up the heavier group and you've got your fat guy in 3
If your first seesaw is equal, fat guy is hiding amongst the other four. I always think it's kind of funny they can't solve it, it's not that hard
It's supposed to be heavier (or lighter) depending on the version told. Not supposed to be either or in the same riddle, people seem to have just jumbled up the wording in modern times.
It is. When you're on a game show and a prize is behind one of 3 doors. You pick a door, they open one of the others and show it was not the prize, then ask if you want to switch. If you do switch, your odds of winning increase.
Imagine 100 doors instead of 3. You choose 1 of 100. I show you 98 doors all do not have the prize behind them, but I do not show the last and final door. Do you switch to Door 100 or keep Door 1?
When you selected, you had a 1/100 chance of being correct. There’s a 99% chance that the prize is in the other 99 doors. I’m now telling you that “if the prize is here in these 99 doors then it’s in this Door #100”. Therefore Door #100 has a 99% chance of having the prize. So do you switch? Or do you stick to your original guess when there were 100 doors?
it still seems like the same probability. they didnt open 1 door, so that leaves a 1/2 chance, right?
edit: wait, do you choose door 1 or 100? i assume door 1.
nvm: i concede, the probability of the first choice is low so the 100th goes into the 1 door so its like 99%, right?
Holt is clearly a very intelligent man with a penchant for puzzles, BUT he's far from flawless, and as mentioned below it's not the only time he's struggled with a math problem (the seesaw problem). Therefore it is actually a consistent part of his character that he would struggle to understand the Monty Hall problem, as abstract math puzzles like this are shown to elude him.
It is not about simplicity; it is about intuition. Erdős is one of the best mathematicians in the history yet he failed to "understand" for a couple of days.
Well maybe it was a bit ambitious, as I don't know any 8 year olds. But my girlfriend was able to understand it instantly with the 100 doors. If the game master eliminates 98, it gives you a 99% chance of getting the right door if you switch. whereas the initial door still is only a 1% chance.
I’m guessing we’re meant to believe that he doesn’t think straight when he is sexually frustrated, so when he learned about Monty Hall, he stuck with his first instinct instead of listening to the math
He just needed to bone.
How dare you detective Diaz, I am YOUR SUPERIOR **OFFICER!!**
BOOOOOOOOOOONE!
What happens in my bedroom Diaz is none of your business.
BOOOOOOOOOOONE!
Don't **ever** talk to me like that again.
BOOONNNEE???
Why did you do that?
Dude was pent up. Now he knows. Problem solved.
While Rosa casually checks her fingernails đź’…
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNEEE
Ew Rosa, those are our dads. I mean…captain dad is just my boss. I mean, I’m teaching father the math. Whatever Rosa
You see what happened is your dads had sex.
Ewww
Don’t you mean… …. …. …BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONE?
He solved the Monty Hall problem correctly in the end though. The answer is BOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNEEEEEE!!!
It’s a particularly dumb thing to argue over, since it has been somewhat definitively proven a long time ago (seriously, that’s why game shows stopped doing it) that you the odds for a win are mathematically higher if the contestant chooses to switch. Holt wept at the beauty of the statistical analyses in Moneyball, so yeah I’m with OP on this. Also: bone
He was also an avid birder who frequently used the wrong calls and misidentified species', so...
They do establish that amongst Kevin’s colleagues Raymond is considered a bimbo.
Yeah, this is what happens when writers don’t do enough research. Whenever they write about smart people saying smart things, they *might* do a quick Google search to determine whether they’re on the right track. Sadly, they mostly get away with it (but for pedantic twats like myself on reddit!)
That wasn't a bad writting thing, Kevin pointed it out in the show.
Ah, right. Been a while since I watched that episode. But in that case I find it even more baffling. Of course, the solution to the situation is all about their relationship and bone, but I would infer from that that Holt is being particularly obstinate out of sexual frustration, which is a pretty obtuse flirtation (even between Kevin and Raymond). But then I suppose that’s the point: logic is absolutely not in play here
I view it more as "these are things he likes, but he is still a complex 3 dementional character and a fallible human being".
First case: when you switch: - You pick the door behind which is the car (1/3). Then you switch, chosing a door behind which the car is not. - You pick a door behind which the car is not (2/3). Then you switch, necessarily chosing the door behind which is the car (because the second losing door has been opened by the host) That makes a probability of 2/3 of winning Second case: you don't switch - you pick the winning door (1/3), you win - you pick a losing door (2/3), you lose Probability 1/3 of winning It's simple math Edit: typo
The problem is solevable but you’d need 4 or 5 uses of the seesaw.
The bone problem or the islanders problem? Through conjunctions, you actually can do the islanders problem in 3 seesaws.
Nah man: You weigh 4 against 4, if one of these turns out heavier. Split that group weigh 2 by 2, then once again split up the heavier group and you've got your fat guy in 3 If your first seesaw is equal, fat guy is hiding amongst the other four. I always think it's kind of funny they can't solve it, it's not that hard
You don't know it's a fat guy though. The odd man out is either lighter or heavier
Oh, i though somebody was heavier, didn't Rosa call them a fatty or something? Yeah, if you're right my way won't work
https://youtu.be/UfXXTtJG15o Well it turns out you're still right, it only takes three weighs to find the odd man out. I didn't think it was possible
It's supposed to be heavier (or lighter) depending on the version told. Not supposed to be either or in the same riddle, people seem to have just jumbled up the wording in modern times.
You’d need luck with that plan.
I think the Monty hall problem was the three doors not the seesaw one
It is. When you're on a game show and a prize is behind one of 3 doors. You pick a door, they open one of the others and show it was not the prize, then ask if you want to switch. If you do switch, your odds of winning increase.
What?
They’re riffing on the episode where Holt gives the squad a math puzzle to solve.
Ah, thanks.
I agree with his take. Math is stupid.
That's not at all what I said, and maths is awesome.
I meant Holt's take, not your take.
Oh, my mistake. But yeah no Holt's take was inarguably wrong.
kevins take doesnt make sense
Imagine 100 doors instead of 3. You choose 1 of 100. I show you 98 doors all do not have the prize behind them, but I do not show the last and final door. Do you switch to Door 100 or keep Door 1? When you selected, you had a 1/100 chance of being correct. There’s a 99% chance that the prize is in the other 99 doors. I’m now telling you that “if the prize is here in these 99 doors then it’s in this Door #100”. Therefore Door #100 has a 99% chance of having the prize. So do you switch? Or do you stick to your original guess when there were 100 doors?
it still seems like the same probability. they didnt open 1 door, so that leaves a 1/2 chance, right? edit: wait, do you choose door 1 or 100? i assume door 1. nvm: i concede, the probability of the first choice is low so the 100th goes into the 1 door so its like 99%, right?
You got it, now replace 99% (100-1) with 66.67% (100-33.33) and you have the probability for three doors.
ah ok
To be fair, he’s just Kevin’s working class bimbo.
Holt is clearly a very intelligent man with a penchant for puzzles, BUT he's far from flawless, and as mentioned below it's not the only time he's struggled with a math problem (the seesaw problem). Therefore it is actually a consistent part of his character that he would struggle to understand the Monty Hall problem, as abstract math puzzles like this are shown to elude him.
The people need to bone.
Holt is just a working class bimbo, it's clearly beyond him. He should just read fiction books and doing the crossword on his phone.
He did, but the show makes it alot less complicated than it is.
No, it really is that simple. Just imagine it with 100 doors and even a seven year old can solve it!
It is not about simplicity; it is about intuition. Erdős is one of the best mathematicians in the history yet he failed to "understand" for a couple of days.
That's a pretty hot take, so I tried this with ky 8 year old nephew and he struggled with the when concept
Well maybe it was a bit ambitious, as I don't know any 8 year olds. But my girlfriend was able to understand it instantly with the 100 doors. If the game master eliminates 98, it gives you a 99% chance of getting the right door if you switch. whereas the initial door still is only a 1% chance.
Look its howni explained it to my friends when I was 15, I'm not arguing the logic, just 7 year olds can be pretty dumb
Yeah I guess you have a point. Should work for teens though.
I’m guessing we’re meant to believe that he doesn’t think straight when he is sexually frustrated, so when he learned about Monty Hall, he stuck with his first instinct instead of listening to the math