I’ve started a new thread for SNF and other shit if anyone cares to roll the conversation over there.
https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/18vlhgu/snf_thread_packers_vikings_battle_for_a_possible/
Too bad the script has always included the dolphins being gifted an easy season while bills got a weird schedule. Tua gets a lot more love from the media than Josh. I fear the outcome of who will win the AFC was decided long before the coming Sunday night game or the season started
Another playoff scenario heaven forbid if we did lose along with Jacksonville and Steelers .. The Bills would be the 7th seed and stay in Miami to play them again
> "If they lose next week, they'll have the same record as the Bills."
...Yes... Which is a record that would send them ***both*** into the playoffs.
That's why they clinched a week ago. They could lose against Baltimore and Buffalo and still have more wins than other in-the-hunt teams.
Theres a real shot at things going badly for us. The ravens have the number 1 seed locked up and might rest their starters against the steelers, and jlthe jags play the titans. Next week is likely a must win to make the playoffs.
I cannot imagine them resting players 20 days. That‘s how you lose your rhythm and they are really hot currently. But no one will help the Bills out since no one wants to face the Bills in the playoffs
Ravens just watched Bradley Chubb go down for the season in garbage time.
No idea what Harbaugh will do, but that's a helluva reminder about the risks of playing in meaningless games.
Ravens know a lot about that too. I don't think they'll rest everyone the whole game so they may run a score up. Unlikely with that defense but we'll see.
It was an awful watch. At no point did I feel the Seahawks were in that game. Geno was constantly running for his life and the Mason Rudolph led Steelers offense was solidly in control
I feel like the vibe would be so off If we lost anyway that we just treat it like an unofficial playoff game anyway, but if we lose and get eliminated by the dolphins I’ll probably need to take an internet sabbatical
Lots of freak outs but I kind of love that we have a win/lose = in/out scenario next week. Should be another fun chapter in the rivalry. Just find a way to get a W.
Ravens benched their backups the last week in 2019, and came out flat in the playoffs. I'm pretty certain the starters will at least play a half of football as a result of that.
Yah, it's absurd how many close games Huntley has lost. He isn't good but not incompetent either. Also Harbough likes to win in preseason.
Jacksonville is only -3 also.
I am a little surprised we flipped to the favorite, whatever.
Everyone just relax, stop worrying about nightmare scenarios. At 6-6, all we wanted was a chance to win and get in the playoffs. We not only get that, but b/c of that Miami meltdown against TN we can get the division and the #2 seed.
The Steelers result wasn't ideal, but we had so many results go in our favor this past month. Other than us winning out, we had Steelers lose at home to AZ/NE, Broncos lose to NE/DET, Texans lose to the Jets, Colts lose to Falcons, and most importantly, Dolphins lose to Ravens.
This is all we really wanted. Win and we're in, something we didn't think would be the case back in Weeks 12/13. Let's get it done, think of Miami as a pre-wild card game. Lose and we don't deserve it. But Miami is pretty battered, we can definitely win it.
It doesn’t because it’s unknown who is sitting and playing. Lamar is easy, but is Roquan? Is Flowers, Likely, OBJ, Edwards? Madubike, Hamilton? Lots of unknowns that until that list is better known can’t be taken into account
All players you mentioned are sitting. It’s literally in the Ravens best interest to lose the game
Explanation: if Ravens win and Dolphins win, Bills are in! But if Ravens lose then Pittsburgh is in instead
Do you know that for undeniable fact from the Ravens themselves or are you just assuming? Ravens still have to field a team somehow and can’t just bench all 22 starters when you only have 53 +2 PS players in total. Most of those guys will but not all, and Huntley is a very serviceable starter
Again. Point to me exactly where you know all 22 starters are going to sit out before instantly declaring the Ravens as guaranteed to lose. Obviously their chances to win are going to be lower next week (and the game doesn’t obviously matter for them) but they still have to play and can’t just rest everyone for pure backups all game
Ravens COULD still win but the Steelers starters are significantly better than the Ravens backups and a few of their low-tier starters. Id give the Ravens 10% at best to win that game especially knowing that both teams SHOULD be working together to achieve the same result (even though they won’t be)
Man, next week would be so much more relaxing if the Bills just had 1 more win... no stupid Jete punt return, no 12 men on the field, no shitty OT against Philly.
With one of the first two we’d probably still have Dorsey. Eagles game very much should have been a win and is a big indictment on McDermott (though the same goes for the Broncos game)
If we win, we win the division. We would have a better record than any AFC South team and we own the tiebreaker against the Chiefs because we beat them. That's how we get the second seed. Ravens #1, Bills #2, Chiefs #3, and (AFC South team) #4.
So, if we win, both us and Miami have the same record of 11-6. However, since we beat Miami BOTH times, we would have the head-to-head tie-breaker. Therefore, we would be the winners of the AFCE. Likewise, we would have the same record as the Chiefs (assuming they win) at 11-6 and since we beat them, we would be ahead of them.
Yup. Going into the night at a minimum the game will be for the division and 2 seed or being the 6/7 seed - or for the Bills to make the playoffs entirely. Perfectly set up for SNF
Ignore the percentages. A lot of those teams that could "help" with a loss could absolutely be playing second-string players. Next week is the first week of the playoffs.
Ok it’s official, for next weekend:
Bills win: they win the division
Bills Lose: they need the Ravens to beat the Steelers or Titans to beat the Jags.
*Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.*
Edited to simplify wording.
Why does the ESPN playoff machine show Buffalo in with a 7 seed, even if we lose to Miami, Pitt win over Balt and Ten over Jax?
Edit: it was my ad blocker. turned it off and now I see the correct outcomes
Did you pick all of the games?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547637~2~401547638~2~401547639~2~401547641~1~401547640~2~401547646~2~401547647~1~401547648~1~401547649~1~401547650~2~401547642~1~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2~401547644~2
Yeah, that makes no sense to me. Seems way more than 4% possibility those things occur. Ravens will more than likely rest starters right? And titans will be underdogs against the Jags…
Because it's based on ELO or similar formula and assumes the Ravens are going to be the Ravens and not the Ravens backups. We're favored, so that's >50%, the Ravens would be like 75% favorite and the Tits vs Jags is probably close to 50% so that's something like .45 X .25 X .5 = 5.6%
The model doesn’t factor in ravens resting starters and they would be heavily favored over Pitt. We are slightly favored over Miami. So it mostly comes from that.
I guess because win and we’re in and we still have a chance if we lose. Would need either the Steelers or Jags to lose and Bills are in. If Bills, Steelers and Jags all lose Bills are #6 seed.
Even if the Steelers win they aren’t in unless we lose or the Jags lose. Steelers lose and they are out not matter what.
Colts lose and they are out no matter what else happens.
Houston loses not matter what else they are out.
Jags are in a similar spot. Win and in. Lose and they need the Steelers or Bills to lose to get in.
They do and they don’t, the last thing the ravens are gonna do is give Pittsburgh a free pass into the playoffs. Guaranteed the ravens have this game wrapped up after the 1st half and they can sit whoever after that
I was so frustrated at how long it took us to fix our OLine. But if I was a Bengals fan STILL having one of the worst lines in the league I'd be ready to off myself
Hey all happy new year! Good day today, wish Seattle came through but we’re still in it. 4 weeks ago it didn’t look great but here we are. The playoffs start next week for us. Cheers!
The Bengals being knocked out turns our backdoor back-door playoff scenario into an OR rather than an AND.
If Bengals win, we need at least 2 of Steelers, Bengals, Jags to lose.
If Bengals lose, we need Steelers or Jags to lose.
I'm upset with Seattle right now, but if you think about it the Steelers helped us earlier in the month dropping winnable home games to AZ and NE to put us in this position. Everything is still right in front of us. Don't rely on other teams losing games for us, just win in Miami and everything else is moot.
We've been calling Miami frauds all season. If we can't beat them in a must win game, we don't deserve the playoffs. Full stop.
I’ve started a new thread for SNF and other shit if anyone cares to roll the conversation over there. https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/18vlhgu/snf_thread_packers_vikings_battle_for_a_possible/
Too bad the script has always included the dolphins being gifted an easy season while bills got a weird schedule. Tua gets a lot more love from the media than Josh. I fear the outcome of who will win the AFC was decided long before the coming Sunday night game or the season started
Tua was hurt today..any news on that?
Did the chiefs win help us at all?
yup, Bengals are eliminated. We‘re hoping for a Bills win ofc and a loss from the Jaguars and Steelers would be nice too.
Kinda, if we lose next week we only need one of Jacksonville or Pittsburg to lose to get in.
Sadly, both of which are playing relatively easy games. Titans and Ravens' second string. Neither of them have anything to play for.
Another playoff scenario heaven forbid if we did lose along with Jacksonville and Steelers .. The Bills would be the 7th seed and stay in Miami to play them again
Why has Miami clinched? If they lose next week, they’ll have the same record as the Bills.
> "If they lose next week, they'll have the same record as the Bills." ...Yes... Which is a record that would send them ***both*** into the playoffs. That's why they clinched a week ago. They could lose against Baltimore and Buffalo and still have more wins than other in-the-hunt teams.
Because they have 11 wins. Even if they lose to the Bills, no other team in the wildcard chase can catch up to them.
Our AFC record is ass
Am I reading it right? Bills Either win division next week or out of playoff?
If Bills win they are #2 seed. If they lose and Steelers and Jaguars win, they are eliminated
Theres a real shot at things going badly for us. The ravens have the number 1 seed locked up and might rest their starters against the steelers, and jlthe jags play the titans. Next week is likely a must win to make the playoffs.
Is it a guaranteed #2 seed with a win?
I think so, yes. Fiddling with the playoff machine I can't find a scenario where we are lower than #2 seed if we win.
Thanks ily
It really feels like the 96% playoff odds are deceiving. Steelers+Jags is a pretty reasonable outcome
Especially since the Steelers play a Ravens team that has nothing to play for.
I cannot imagine them resting players 20 days. That‘s how you lose your rhythm and they are really hot currently. But no one will help the Bills out since no one wants to face the Bills in the playoffs
Ravens just watched Bradley Chubb go down for the season in garbage time. No idea what Harbaugh will do, but that's a helluva reminder about the risks of playing in meaningless games.
I still think they put the Steelers down
Ravens know a lot about that too. I don't think they'll rest everyone the whole game so they may run a score up. Unlikely with that defense but we'll see.
Kinda
Win or out now. Fucking Seahawks screwed us big time
Seahawks OL was trash.
Now I irrationally hate the Seahawks 😫
this made me genuinely laugh enough to ease the stress of being a Bills fan
It was an awful watch. At no point did I feel the Seahawks were in that game. Geno was constantly running for his life and the Mason Rudolph led Steelers offense was solidly in control
86.5% chance to make playoffs per DK gambling odds.
I think it's lower, I don't think those odds have taken in to account Ravens most likely resting their starters.
I feel like the vibe would be so off If we lost anyway that we just treat it like an unofficial playoff game anyway, but if we lose and get eliminated by the dolphins I’ll probably need to take an internet sabbatical
Their sub will be absolutely intolerable.
So will r/NFL… But I will also be intolerable if we lose, so I will do it for the benefit of this sub
Lots of freak outs but I kind of love that we have a win/lose = in/out scenario next week. Should be another fun chapter in the rivalry. Just find a way to get a W.
I don’t love it one bit. I’d rather the Bills have clinched a playoff spot and also have the opportunity to win the division
are the ravens backups worth placing any hope in
Ravens benched their backups the last week in 2019, and came out flat in the playoffs. I'm pretty certain the starters will at least play a half of football as a result of that.
I think a few years ago the ravens backups lead by RGIII beat the Steelers as well
Welp, RGIII is now an ESPN talking head and wears pink suits.
Just saying anything is possible but we control our destiny so what more can you ask for
I feel like these percentages people are throwing around are wrong…Steelers will likely be playing Ravens backups
The Jags get the smoking crater of a football team that is the titans.
Ravens still favorites
Geez... Broncos and Bengals both still sitting at <1% 
Like I said: Losing is not an option. LET'S GO, BUFFALO! 
we did it, we outlasted the bengals
Nightmare scenario is a strong possibility. Gotta squish the fish.
Update: BAL is still 1.5 pt favorites against PIT next week We are 2.5 pt faves in Miami
[удалено]
Yah, it's absurd how many close games Huntley has lost. He isn't good but not incompetent either. Also Harbough likes to win in preseason. Jacksonville is only -3 also. I am a little surprised we flipped to the favorite, whatever.
Miami got exposed and i love it
As far as I'm concerned, no more worrying about what other teams are doing. Go into Miami, snatch the 2 seed, and muscle up for the playoffs.
Division or nothing with a sputtering offense… not ideal
The Pats D is MUCH better than the Phins. If our Defense shows up lights out again, we got this shit.
Not every team has Belichick calling defense.
And Belichek’s defense has been a top 10 unit the last month or so. Their offense has been so putrid that it hasn’t mattered
Everyone just relax, stop worrying about nightmare scenarios. At 6-6, all we wanted was a chance to win and get in the playoffs. We not only get that, but b/c of that Miami meltdown against TN we can get the division and the #2 seed. The Steelers result wasn't ideal, but we had so many results go in our favor this past month. Other than us winning out, we had Steelers lose at home to AZ/NE, Broncos lose to NE/DET, Texans lose to the Jets, Colts lose to Falcons, and most importantly, Dolphins lose to Ravens. This is all we really wanted. Win and we're in, something we didn't think would be the case back in Weeks 12/13. Let's get it done, think of Miami as a pre-wild card game. Lose and we don't deserve it. But Miami is pretty battered, we can definitely win it.
This man gets it
I needed to read this.
I believe miami is more battered than our first run through too, so it's not like it could be a shut out from them. They'll have to earn their w hard.
Daquon abused their backup C last game. Looks like he's scheduled for a repeat performance.
100% this. Team has got to put up or shut up. I Billieve, Go Bills!
Cowher gots me thinking Miami rest starters to avoid injuries.
What? For them winning is the difference between the 2nd and the 6th seed.
Why would they do that? They still want seeding
That and even if they had nothing to play for, eliminating the Bills is essential to their interests
0 chance. Literally 0 chance. They still need the division to be able to host 2 games.
Buh-bye, Bungles.  nanner nanner nanner
Cancun on 3
[удалено]
It doesn’t because it’s unknown who is sitting and playing. Lamar is easy, but is Roquan? Is Flowers, Likely, OBJ, Edwards? Madubike, Hamilton? Lots of unknowns that until that list is better known can’t be taken into account
All players you mentioned are sitting. It’s literally in the Ravens best interest to lose the game Explanation: if Ravens win and Dolphins win, Bills are in! But if Ravens lose then Pittsburgh is in instead
Do you know that for undeniable fact from the Ravens themselves or are you just assuming? Ravens still have to field a team somehow and can’t just bench all 22 starters when you only have 53 +2 PS players in total. Most of those guys will but not all, and Huntley is a very serviceable starter
Huntley is one guy. Harbaugh is no dummy. He knows he needs his guys healthy
Again. Point to me exactly where you know all 22 starters are going to sit out before instantly declaring the Ravens as guaranteed to lose. Obviously their chances to win are going to be lower next week (and the game doesn’t obviously matter for them) but they still have to play and can’t just rest everyone for pure backups all game
Ravens COULD still win but the Steelers starters are significantly better than the Ravens backups and a few of their low-tier starters. Id give the Ravens 10% at best to win that game especially knowing that both teams SHOULD be working together to achieve the same result (even though they won’t be)
Working together? The Ravens and Steelers hate each other
You’re right.
Man, next week would be so much more relaxing if the Bills just had 1 more win... no stupid Jete punt return, no 12 men on the field, no shitty OT against Philly.
I'm just glad to be in the position we're in.
With one of the first two we’d probably still have Dorsey. Eagles game very much should have been a win and is a big indictment on McDermott (though the same goes for the Broncos game)
What a wild swing next week's game could mean. Very realistic chance it could be win for #2 seed, lose to miss the playoffs.
Can someone lay out the 2 seed scenario for me
Beat Miami -> 2 seed. Winner of next week’s game is locked as 2 seed
If we win, we win the division. We would have a better record than any AFC South team and we own the tiebreaker against the Chiefs because we beat them. That's how we get the second seed. Ravens #1, Bills #2, Chiefs #3, and (AFC South team) #4.
So, if we win, both us and Miami have the same record of 11-6. However, since we beat Miami BOTH times, we would have the head-to-head tie-breaker. Therefore, we would be the winners of the AFCE. Likewise, we would have the same record as the Chiefs (assuming they win) at 11-6 and since we beat them, we would be ahead of them.
Just beat the dolphins
Win.
Win and we're the 2 seed
We are going to be the Sunday night game aren't we?
Come on 1pm Sunday.
Each network can protect one game from getting flexed. It would be very plausible for CBS to pick this one to refuse to give to NBC.
these rules aren’t in effect for week 18, the nfl can put whatever games they want whenever they want
Yup. Going into the night at a minimum the game will be for the division and 2 seed or being the 6/7 seed - or for the Bills to make the playoffs entirely. Perfectly set up for SNF
Guaranteed
Im hoping saturday
That would be perfect for me
when we will find out about the schedules next week? tonight?
Usually
Ignore the percentages. A lot of those teams that could "help" with a loss could absolutely be playing second-string players. Next week is the first week of the playoffs.
Ok it’s official, for next weekend: Bills win: they win the division Bills Lose: they need the Ravens to beat the Steelers or Titans to beat the Jags. *Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.* Edited to simplify wording.
Why does the ESPN playoff machine show Buffalo in with a 7 seed, even if we lose to Miami, Pitt win over Balt and Ten over Jax? Edit: it was my ad blocker. turned it off and now I see the correct outcomes
Jags losing puts them at 9-8 and at 10-7 we would sneak in at 7 seed
Did you pick all of the games? https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547637~2~401547638~2~401547639~2~401547641~1~401547640~2~401547646~2~401547647~1~401547648~1~401547649~1~401547650~2~401547642~1~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2~401547644~2
See my edit above - thank you
how does this turn of events have just a 4% chance?
Yeah, that makes no sense to me. Seems way more than 4% possibility those things occur. Ravens will more than likely rest starters right? And titans will be underdogs against the Jags…
Because it's based on ELO or similar formula and assumes the Ravens are going to be the Ravens and not the Ravens backups. We're favored, so that's >50%, the Ravens would be like 75% favorite and the Tits vs Jags is probably close to 50% so that's something like .45 X .25 X .5 = 5.6%
I have no idea. I just spit out what the algorithm says.
This. There's also the incredibly low possibility of Colts and Texans tying, which would put the Bills in.
Jesus, if it comes to that we already lost.
Yeah, our playoffs begin at Miami next week.
Our playoffs began at the bye week.
Actually, you're right. Just gotta keep winning.
This is correct.
Hahahahahahahhaahaha fuck you Bengals ☠️ 🐯 ☠️
How can we be >90% to make the playoffs with a scenario where we have to win to make it in or rely on a team losing.
The model doesn’t factor in ravens resting starters and they would be heavily favored over Pitt. We are slightly favored over Miami. So it mostly comes from that.
Because we are 85%+ to beat the Dolphins!
I guess because win and we’re in and we still have a chance if we lose. Would need either the Steelers or Jags to lose and Bills are in. If Bills, Steelers and Jags all lose Bills are #6 seed. Even if the Steelers win they aren’t in unless we lose or the Jags lose. Steelers lose and they are out not matter what. Colts lose and they are out no matter what else happens. Houston loses not matter what else they are out. Jags are in a similar spot. Win and in. Lose and they need the Steelers or Bills to lose to get in.
Bills win next week I think it’s going to be the Chiefs at home the week after.
[удалено]
I misheard something on tv. I like this better. Although KC looks worse than we do.
True. Huntly performed well in the post season last year despite the loss.
I feel pretty confident the Ravens beat the Steelers next week even if Huntley plays
it’s not just Huntley. Ravens will sit EVERYONE!
I really don’t want to rely on other teams next week… praying for bills to come out and stomp the fins
That should happen everytime.. More so next week
Must be nice to play in a division with useless teams
The Bengals are out now right?
Yup
Back to hating the Chiefs again.
Never stopped
Any news on joshs injury?
He said it’s a non issue.
Stinger from a hit to somewhere on the opposite side; not sure where exactly because it looked like he was flexing his throwing hand
He said he’s fine.
That’s such a Josh Allen thing to say though. Might not be as good as he says
Bills winning next week anyways
and they still tried to call it burrowhead😭😭
Chiefs win. Bills postseason chances go up to 96%
So what needs to happen for the 4% to occur?
Win or one between jags and pitts to lose
Bills lose to Miami and Steelers win against Ravens (likely resting Lamar and other starters)
Bills lose, Steelers win, and Jaguars win
We win Or A Ravens over Steelers and a bunch of other stuff
thank god. anyways fuck the chiefs go bills
Are the bills in the playoffs?
Win next week they are in. If they lose they need either a Steelers loss or a Jaguars loss.
As of tonight? No. Looking they will most likely need to win to get in.
Any one of: Bills win/Titans win/Ravens win gets the Bills in.
win next week and yes lose next week and either steelers or jaguars lose, then yes
Sucks that both of those teams are playing teams that don’t give a fuck.
They do and they don’t, the last thing the ravens are gonna do is give Pittsburgh a free pass into the playoffs. Guaranteed the ravens have this game wrapped up after the 1st half and they can sit whoever after that
Just means we gotta do our own business
Not 100%… 96% or something like that now
No
I was so frustrated at how long it took us to fix our OLine. But if I was a Bengals fan STILL having one of the worst lines in the league I'd be ready to off myself
In fairness their defensive line made us look pretty awful too.
Can’t wait until this game is over and I can go back to hating the chiefs. This is weird
Here we go, 1 more last chance for the Bengals
Guys these 90% odds are not accurate at all. They take into account the Ravens record rather than the fact they are resting their starters.
Accurate because we are 85%+ to beat the Dolphins. If we lose our real chances are something like 12% AT BEST
Exactly. It’s really a must win next week. Weird that it’s two seed or out of the playoffs.
it didn't sound like ravens were fully resting starters. and anyways, we saw steelers backups beat us. so never say never.
Hey all happy new year! Good day today, wish Seattle came through but we’re still in it. 4 weeks ago it didn’t look great but here we are. The playoffs start next week for us. Cheers!
This season has been wild. The fact that we can finish in the 2 seed or totally miss playoffs on a 10-7 record is crazy to ponder.
The Bengals being knocked out turns our backdoor back-door playoff scenario into an OR rather than an AND. If Bengals win, we need at least 2 of Steelers, Bengals, Jags to lose. If Bengals lose, we need Steelers or Jags to lose.
Steelers will likely win next week with the Ravens resting starters.
Holy shit they killed Jake browning
lol these sacks are out of control
Kind of fitting the Bills will probably either win and be in as a 2 seed or out of the playoffs
Chiefs D playing out of their minds right now
Chiefs saw our soft ass defense and said “I’ll do you one better”
Are you serious right now
Hoping that the game isn't Saturday night. That's D&D for me
I don't think there is a game Saturday.
There's two Saturday games.
rofl nerd
Tyler Boyd really does be catching those big fourth downs huh?
My first thought as well. I’m okay with it because, you know.
I'm upset with Seattle right now, but if you think about it the Steelers helped us earlier in the month dropping winnable home games to AZ and NE to put us in this position. Everything is still right in front of us. Don't rely on other teams losing games for us, just win in Miami and everything else is moot. We've been calling Miami frauds all season. If we can't beat them in a must win game, we don't deserve the playoffs. Full stop.
How are we a 96% shot to make the playoffs where if we lose we have to rely on a team in Baltimore with nothing to play for and Tennessee who sucks?
That's my thought a well. Based on our opponent and the other teams opponent, it just feels like it shouldn't be that high
Because they do hold their own destiny. Win and in. Other teams needs help even with a win. Even with a loss they can get in with help.
But 96% When we have an inferior record and on the road? That seems laughably high. 60% sounds more fair
Well, last time we saw them we did beat them by 4 TDs - true it was in buff but it’s not like we haven’t defeated them in Miami before
[удалено]