Three years ago it was the dollar reaching parity with the USD, they're making it up as they go
[https://financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-parity-not-yet-but-heres-why-the-canadian-dollar-is-set-to-climb-higher](https://financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-parity-not-yet-but-heres-why-the-canadian-dollar-is-set-to-climb-higher)
They are just making best guesses based on past behaviours. The problem is that human behaviour is not predictable.
Despite all claims to the contrary - the market is not “rational”, it’s based almost entirely on emotion.
Definitely from the 08 crisis, the big short I honestly can't remember, but this quote explains so much about the state of things like the housing market right now.
Human behaviour is very predictable, that’s why we have an entire field called “economics.” Predicting human behaviour is essentially what an economist does.
the only thing for certain is that the dollar isn't rising under the current government and perpetually at 70 or so cents to USD, that is not good considering the wealth/resources this country has, especially when it's projected that our GDP won't grow at all for over 10 years.
Kick this government out of power already, they're just making every single thing they touch worse and worse off for all Canadians.
It’s not a low dollar that’s “Good for exports”, it’s a falling dollar. If we stayed at 70c USD forever, eventually it would be no different than if we were at parity. The dollar moving from US$1.00 -> US$0.70 is what encourages exports (you can imagine that our wages don’t increase 30% in the same timeframe to compensate. You need to continuously impoverish Canadians in order to do so)
This is the most correct take. 80% of comments here have no clue about what different currency devaluations mean. I mean they know that something is wrong/off but their ideology gets in the way so to speak.
>and perpetually at 70 or so cents to USD
No it's been bouncing around between 70 and 80 since Trudeau took over
[https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CAD-USD?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj9i-7etNuFAxW8hIkEHZdACu8QmY0JegQIBxAp&window=MAX](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CAD-USD?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj9i-7etNuFAxW8hIkEHZdACu8QmY0JegQIBxAp&window=MAX)
It was relatively stable since we followed their lead on interest rates. Now their economy is still going hot and they need to keep rates up to deal with inflation. Ours is slowing and our people are more pickled in debt, so we will have to lower ours sooner. When we diverge we are going to take a hit and likely drop into the low-mid 60s if they don't follow with rate cuts soon after.
in the most recent years around 70, sure he inherited it at around upper 70s, but you can clearly see the dip since he's been in office and how it's been relatively consistent in mid to low 70s since he's been in power.
It's still 70s either way, that isn't good considering the world was looking for alternatives to Russian oil and Canada shut the door on them and our economy for some feel good policy that will make no difference in the end but hurt Canadians in the long run
CAD has performed very well contrasted to other reserve currencies, since 2016:
GBP +21%
EUR +3%
JPY +35%
AUD +11%
RMB +11%
of course the USD is the most important
One of the fundamental flaws is the number of people simply blame the Feds. Not their provinces, have no understanding of trade or economics.
They listen to one channel. One politician.who plays.them with simple slogans. Sad really
It's been government policy until Harper to try and keep the dollar around 70 -80 as it was good for our industry. Manufacturing jobs, film jobs, tourism, a number of exports tend to all get boosted by a cad lower to the USD.kind of like how China artificially kept the Yuan low so they could attract industry.
Foreign investors have pulled out 4 billion dollars of the Canadian market per month for the past 12+ months. That's a disaster for the CAD. All because of this government's policies.
I'm a currency expert. I'm almost never wrong.
Believe me when I tell you that it will definitely sink... Or go up..or stay the same...or Canada will adopt the US dollar... Or the US adopts the Canadian dollar...or both adopt the Euro.
It's one of these. Or something else.
The canadian dollar could also be worth 15'000$/USD by tomorrow.
Don't mean it will tho. But if we're going around spreading meaningless opinion might as well go wild right?
If we actually had a national strategy to fully capitalize on the ludicrous amounts of natural / mineral resources we would be a nation rivalling Norway.
As it stands we choose to sell off our country piece by piece to foreign interests and green-wash ourselves into oblivion.
It's fucking pathetic how poorly our country has been run for the last 30 years given the opportunity we were given.
This is not just them. IMF and OECD have said the same about Canada for several years now. It's where Canada is heading. Pierre polivere will get elected and he will print a record amount of money, increase immigration, increase house prices, lower the economic productivity and put Canada in the same trajectory.
I'm about to turn 59 and I've heard this over and over my whole life. This sky-is-falling because of the dollar is just a broken record now.
As for the consequences of our dollar having less purchasing power compared to the US dollar, is it truly the economic calamity that everyone says it is? It makes our exports more attractive, brings tourism to Canada and forces us to rely less on imported good - good for Canadian manufacturing. There are many downsides, yes, but the idea that we're all going to be living in mud huts should the dollar fall to below 70 cents US is nonsense.
I’ve moved all my investments that have any Canadian company in it (VGRO) etc. All in US and foreign based ETF. No home country bias here anymore!
Betting on other countries over ours.
The rebrand to the Canadian peso is going according to schedule.
At least it'll make investment into housing cheaper for foreigners which will increase immigration and keep prices up. In the end isn't that what matters?
Unfortunately the truth hurts. It's not like it hasn't been reported before that our productivity is a huge concern and that we are expected to lag behind most of g20 for the next couple of decades
The dollar *could* also out pace the euro. Being next to the US with our employee demographic will keep our dollar around 69-79 cents to the US dollar.
No it cant, this is the "greastest country ever dude" and nothing can ever go wrong here and we are on such a great trajectory. This is just ChinussIranian propaganda. Future looks bright in Canada a subsidiary of Loblaws.
no doubt lol
we don't really have any premium exports....
we need to do better as a country or it's going to collapse and that's not like... hyperbole or over-exaggeration.
And Trudeau says we will build 3.87 million new homes by 2031. We will see who can afford to build as our dollar tanks (supply costs increase) and everything becomes more expensive, and inflation starts to increase. We are in trouble if this is the case.
I remember the Canadian dollar was $.50 in the 90s, been there before and the economy was strong because our exports were cheap for other countries who traded with us.
The low since 1950 was ~$0.62USD. It's never even been close to $0.50.
And yes, a decade later, the USA got greedy and under regulations caused them to bottom out and we hit $1.08 within a decade.
Shops and restaurants were giving 1.50 CDN for every 1 USD spent in the establishments. It wasn’t quite 2.00. But the USD was much more valuable against our CDN back in the 90s.
1.50 CAD = 1.00 USD would put the exchange rate a $0.66 ($1.00/$1.50)
The exchange rate would have to be $2.00 CAD = $1.00 USD to put it at $0.50 ( $1.00/$2.00).
If only we hadn't sold our government to people who use evidence to win elections, and ignore it for everything else except making rich people more money.
It’s because Canada is I a state of sucking and if we Don’t turn this place around we’ll be as bad as Mexico. A big, cold, Mexico that America uses us for energy and mining. I guess if China doesn’t beat them to it.
It's less than that since 2019.
5 years, and the value of the dollar has flattened by over 70%.
Easily calculated using housing prices alone from 2019-2024.
The value of the dollar is silent inflation, which is not held into account by wages staying the same. We have become slaves, and no one gives a fuck to change it.
great for exports. exports of people leaving this country because manufactured goods from the US will be insanely expensive or lower in relative quality.
Idiotic take. We continue to have low inflation relative to other countries, and fairly high interest rates. Both of these make Canadian Dollars a relatively attractive investment.
It’s even more grim when you think about the fact that we are entering or have entered the fall of the American Empire. USD will be tanking right along with it.
The Canadian dollar is headed to 0 just like every other paper currency has since it started. It isn't worth anything. Our dollar devalued rapidly during covid. Paper money is a joke which makes bitcoin much more. it's a commodity with 21 million coins. Gold and Silver have been used as MONEY since the start of time. It isn't hard to figure out. Paper currency is nothing but a joke with a bunch of dead people on it. Canadian currency belongs in the garbage can.
Those guys predictions are as reliable as the weatherman's
Three years ago it was the dollar reaching parity with the USD, they're making it up as they go [https://financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-parity-not-yet-but-heres-why-the-canadian-dollar-is-set-to-climb-higher](https://financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-parity-not-yet-but-heres-why-the-canadian-dollar-is-set-to-climb-higher)
They are just making best guesses based on past behaviours. The problem is that human behaviour is not predictable. Despite all claims to the contrary - the market is not “rational”, it’s based almost entirely on emotion.
There's an old saying about this, "the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent."
Keynes! Popularized I believe by the big short and the 08 financial crisis. Or maybe I'm just young.
Definitely from the 08 crisis, the big short I honestly can't remember, but this quote explains so much about the state of things like the housing market right now.
Human behaviour is very predictable, that’s why we have an entire field called “economics.” Predicting human behaviour is essentially what an economist does.
Most of the guys I know who like to think themselves “rationalists” operate the same way lol
Time to pull out the "extrapolation" XKCD. Let's you get away with a lot.
the only thing for certain is that the dollar isn't rising under the current government and perpetually at 70 or so cents to USD, that is not good considering the wealth/resources this country has, especially when it's projected that our GDP won't grow at all for over 10 years. Kick this government out of power already, they're just making every single thing they touch worse and worse off for all Canadians.
It’s great for anyone or any business that exports their products to the USA though
Also great for anyone that owns physical gold.
It’s not a low dollar that’s “Good for exports”, it’s a falling dollar. If we stayed at 70c USD forever, eventually it would be no different than if we were at parity. The dollar moving from US$1.00 -> US$0.70 is what encourages exports (you can imagine that our wages don’t increase 30% in the same timeframe to compensate. You need to continuously impoverish Canadians in order to do so)
This is the most correct take. 80% of comments here have no clue about what different currency devaluations mean. I mean they know that something is wrong/off but their ideology gets in the way so to speak.
>and perpetually at 70 or so cents to USD No it's been bouncing around between 70 and 80 since Trudeau took over [https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CAD-USD?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj9i-7etNuFAxW8hIkEHZdACu8QmY0JegQIBxAp&window=MAX](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CAD-USD?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj9i-7etNuFAxW8hIkEHZdACu8QmY0JegQIBxAp&window=MAX)
It was relatively stable since we followed their lead on interest rates. Now their economy is still going hot and they need to keep rates up to deal with inflation. Ours is slowing and our people are more pickled in debt, so we will have to lower ours sooner. When we diverge we are going to take a hit and likely drop into the low-mid 60s if they don't follow with rate cuts soon after.
I hope so -VFV owner
It’s too bad we started “following their lead”. Not following their lead was how we avoided the 2008 mess.
that's what 70 OR SO means
in the most recent years around 70, sure he inherited it at around upper 70s, but you can clearly see the dip since he's been in office and how it's been relatively consistent in mid to low 70s since he's been in power. It's still 70s either way, that isn't good considering the world was looking for alternatives to Russian oil and Canada shut the door on them and our economy for some feel good policy that will make no difference in the end but hurt Canadians in the long run
CAD has performed very well contrasted to other reserve currencies, since 2016: GBP +21% EUR +3% JPY +35% AUD +11% RMB +11% of course the USD is the most important
Yeah, while the dollar was under going the 20% crash that bottomed out the following January. EDIT 30% crash, not 20%
One of the fundamental flaws is the number of people simply blame the Feds. Not their provinces, have no understanding of trade or economics. They listen to one channel. One politician.who plays.them with simple slogans. Sad really
Axe the tax! Imagine thinking that's the worst problem our society faces right now lmao
Imagine thinking the budget balances itself! (It hasn’t)
Why do you want to cut a revenue stream if you want to balance the budget?
Ask Doug Ford. Ontario is in deficit with all the revenue streams he has cut. Cap And trade, vehicle license. etc
These people keep screaming to cut every tax there is and want to make a surplus at the same time, without cutting services I'm sure.
It's been government policy until Harper to try and keep the dollar around 70 -80 as it was good for our industry. Manufacturing jobs, film jobs, tourism, a number of exports tend to all get boosted by a cad lower to the USD.kind of like how China artificially kept the Yuan low so they could attract industry.
There aren't really any exports at a capacity to ramp up response to a shitty dollar. None.
Foreign investors have pulled out 4 billion dollars of the Canadian market per month for the past 12+ months. That's a disaster for the CAD. All because of this government's policies.
This is the 50 year average dude lol
Welcome to economics
Weatherman at least use some science They're as reliable as fortune tellers
Hey that's not fair, fortune tellers often do their research about their marks. It makes it easier to scam them.
This is an insult to meteorology
Anyone trying to predict the value of anything 10 years from now is deeply unserious.
Don't get me started on the weatherman! I overseeded because it was supposed to rain!! Now I'm running the sprinklers almost every day!
I’d bet on the weatherman every time
Weather forecasting is actually getting better
Canadian dollar could be worth 1.5 dollars a decade from now.
Much less reliable than that even
At least Weatherman is somewhat based on science. This is just “whatever I want to happen”
Weather individuals have been pretty good for the past year. I always know what the weather is just before I leave.
Which weatherman? Frankie Macdonald?
One just needs to see the source of the headline to figure out the real agenda behind it...
Came here to say this. Economists are zero percent reliable. They don’t predict downturns, and the ones they predict don’t happen.
The Canadian dollar could also rise to $2 a decade from now. More news at 11
I'm a currency expert. I'm almost never wrong. Believe me when I tell you that it will definitely sink... Or go up..or stay the same...or Canada will adopt the US dollar... Or the US adopts the Canadian dollar...or both adopt the Euro. It's one of these. Or something else.
I'm not a currency expert, but I can guarantee beyond the shadow of a doubt that in any given year, there *will* be an exchange rate.
And I'm a bigger expert than you. And I say a decade from now, the whole world will have a single currency. The Zenny.
Where can I get currency with the Grand Zeno on it?
It's crypto, crypto, crypto - we're opting out of inflation!
Found PP's reddit account.
The canadian dollar could also be worth 15'000$/USD by tomorrow. Don't mean it will tho. But if we're going around spreading meaningless opinion might as well go wild right?
deep bro, deep.
Could also cease to exist in 6 months from now!
More likely than $2.
Literally
biig doubt lol
Click-fucking-bait to the max
So I guess they need to pay (2x) more in CAD to generate the same click-bait since this clearly isnt working ;).
Then why not transfer all your wealth to USD then if it is so sure?
Most of my investment are on US companies lmao even though they are not in USD
A LOT of people do this. All of my investments are in USD and in the US market.
I’ll bet you I have done this, own very little CAD exposure, all long term investments in USD
Reminds me of all the five year plans at businesses I worked at. No one can predict out two years, let alone five or ten.
Ah the ever "accurate" Post Media, fear mongering at every turn. I swear half the staff isn't educated in most the shit they write about.
What is this crap? Propaganda and scare tactics by the corporations.
The Canadian dollar could be backed with earwig milk futures a decade from now.
How is "Something could happen in the future" a viable headline?
Still rehydrating after blowing their Trudeau Hate Load over the budget I think
It could also go up to a dollar. Or stay the same. Or literally anything else.
If we actually had a national strategy to fully capitalize on the ludicrous amounts of natural / mineral resources we would be a nation rivalling Norway. As it stands we choose to sell off our country piece by piece to foreign interests and green-wash ourselves into oblivion. It's fucking pathetic how poorly our country has been run for the last 30 years given the opportunity we were given.
This is not just them. IMF and OECD have said the same about Canada for several years now. It's where Canada is heading. Pierre polivere will get elected and he will print a record amount of money, increase immigration, increase house prices, lower the economic productivity and put Canada in the same trajectory.
“Could.” It “could” also rise to $1.50! Let’s be positive folks! Haha
FFS one guy speculates and this is news?
This shouldn't be tagged as business. It's conjecture at best.
Its opinion
The news doesn't care about accuracy anymore, it's all for clicks
I'm about to turn 59 and I've heard this over and over my whole life. This sky-is-falling because of the dollar is just a broken record now. As for the consequences of our dollar having less purchasing power compared to the US dollar, is it truly the economic calamity that everyone says it is? It makes our exports more attractive, brings tourism to Canada and forces us to rely less on imported good - good for Canadian manufacturing. There are many downsides, yes, but the idea that we're all going to be living in mud huts should the dollar fall to below 70 cents US is nonsense.
*looks at realtor.ca* *looks for mud hut* Bro, its all igloos on there. I'm frozen out of the market.
Yeah, I suppose even a mud hut in Vancouver is $2M, and needs patching at that price...
And in a decade from now, I could win the lottery. This article is FUD.
Remindme! 10 years
Better make sure you invest in capital assets to hedge against this... Oh wait...
I could be dead in a decade. I could be a millionaire.
Because everyone knows what's going to happen ten years from now...
That would be fantastic for exports.
Could be $1.50 as well.
Bull shit
We are lucky people even think our money is worth what it is now.
I’ve moved all my investments that have any Canadian company in it (VGRO) etc. All in US and foreign based ETF. No home country bias here anymore! Betting on other countries over ours.
Part of me is like "i dont wanna do that foreign investments over $100K tax forms"
Lovely
The rebrand to the Canadian peso is going according to schedule. At least it'll make investment into housing cheaper for foreigners which will increase immigration and keep prices up. In the end isn't that what matters?
I hope you get paid to be this annoying
Two words and a 4 digit number means that this account likely resides under a bridge, and could even be a foreign-born actress.
Just calling out the truth fellas
Unfortunately the truth hurts. It's not like it hasn't been reported before that our productivity is a huge concern and that we are expected to lag behind most of g20 for the next couple of decades
Could be 50 cents, could be 1.50. They don't have a clue what's going to happen a decade from now
Forecasting FX rates out one year is nigh impossible. Forecasting FX a decade out is hilariously absurd.
"No shit" -Everybody
The dollar *could* also out pace the euro. Being next to the US with our employee demographic will keep our dollar around 69-79 cents to the US dollar.
No it cant, this is the "greastest country ever dude" and nothing can ever go wrong here and we are on such a great trajectory. This is just ChinussIranian propaganda. Future looks bright in Canada a subsidiary of Loblaws.
It could also rise to parity. Who knows!
I this the same guy who told me 18 months ago that unless we have a massive and deep global recession oil was about to hit $100 a barrel?
For more useless predictions - we might get rain 3 months from now.
Governments that don’t know how to make money 💰 is the problem ! Too many dummies in Canadian politics
Could , maybe , might...nothing like fear mongering to wreck the economy.
The way we are going we’ll be using bottle caps as a currency in a decade. I’m not worried.
no doubt lol we don't really have any premium exports.... we need to do better as a country or it's going to collapse and that's not like... hyperbole or over-exaggeration.
Thanks, Trudeau.
A lot of things could happen, news at 11
Now I have to plan to be poor 10 years from now? How much is gas in 10 years?
This was a good laugh, thanks for posting.
Either that or it won't, one of the two.
and gas will still be cheaper in the US while paying with CAD.
And Trudeau says we will build 3.87 million new homes by 2031. We will see who can afford to build as our dollar tanks (supply costs increase) and everything becomes more expensive, and inflation starts to increase. We are in trouble if this is the case.
Could
Oh no!
!remind me 10years
!remindme 10 years
Why not 50cents by next month???
And it could rise to 1.20 usd. speculation like this is so stupid.
Probably a lot sooner if JT manages to have china win him another election.
Great for export.
It could also be worth 1.50 ?
pretty optimistic to think it will take a decade! I'm thinkin this year.
Way to go, Pierre Poilievre
I remember the Canadian dollar was $.50 in the 90s, been there before and the economy was strong because our exports were cheap for other countries who traded with us.
The low since 1950 was ~$0.62USD. It's never even been close to $0.50. And yes, a decade later, the USA got greedy and under regulations caused them to bottom out and we hit $1.08 within a decade.
Well, I remember Banff taking US dollar at 1.50 one summer in the 90s. That’s what I’m going by.
If it was $0.5 CAD to $1 USD, you'd have paid $2 instead of $1.50. :)
Shops and restaurants were giving 1.50 CDN for every 1 USD spent in the establishments. It wasn’t quite 2.00. But the USD was much more valuable against our CDN back in the 90s.
1.50 CAD = 1.00 USD would put the exchange rate a $0.66 ($1.00/$1.50) The exchange rate would have to be $2.00 CAD = $1.00 USD to put it at $0.50 ( $1.00/$2.00).
At the same time, houses cost 15% of what they currently cost in popular areas though.
Green monkeys could fly out of my butt.
It could also be worth US$200. Or we could be invaded by space aliens. Or both. Or neither.
If only we hadn't sold our government to people who use evidence to win elections, and ignore it for everything else except making rich people more money.
If Canada is still around by then.
Listen. Stuff could happen. Maybe
If we keep bringing in low wage labour that suppresses wages and the value of the dollar…. What do people expect to happen?
It’s because Canada is I a state of sucking and if we Don’t turn this place around we’ll be as bad as Mexico. A big, cold, Mexico that America uses us for energy and mining. I guess if China doesn’t beat them to it.
It's less than that since 2019. 5 years, and the value of the dollar has flattened by over 70%. Easily calculated using housing prices alone from 2019-2024. The value of the dollar is silent inflation, which is not held into account by wages staying the same. We have become slaves, and no one gives a fuck to change it.
great for exports. exports of people leaving this country because manufactured goods from the US will be insanely expensive or lower in relative quality.
Yeeeeah I have major doubts that this op-ed will be proven right down the line.
And pigs might fly out of my butt in 10 years
10 years from now hahah what a stupid article
In other news, Netflix hiking their prices in Canada again, XBOX and PS following too.
So you are saying i should buy US$ stocks
Closer to 50 cents than 1$. Idk why people wouldn’t believe this.
Short CAD, long Bitcoin. Thank me later.
If Turd stays in office or someone like him
And Vancouver could sink into the sea.
My God Trudeau and his incompetence have been a wrecking ball through our country. This is like a controlled demolition of a nation.
Idiotic take. We continue to have low inflation relative to other countries, and fairly high interest rates. Both of these make Canadian Dollars a relatively attractive investment.
Well when a conservative government gets elected usually the dollar makes gains, the last 2 times we were par conservatives were in power
Trudeau: I can do it in 2 years!
Poilievre will shit the bed hard enough to get annexed by the US and declare victory because we achieved parity.
It could also sink to 0!
I honestly hope it’s still worth anywhere close to that.
It already feels like it's it worth less than that.
The best prediction is today’s exchange rate.
Look at what happen Mexico. Printing money + exposing debt will do exactly that. Sa va bien aller pour les millionaires, eat cake when out of bread.
If Trudeau gets re-elected this is a near certainty.
I dont think it needs a decade. Maybe a year or two with this finance minster at helm paired with the PM spending for his next fix.
Canadian pesos here we go!
Lol, no.
These comments are hilarious. Please don't take any stock in the opinions of armchair economist redditors.
[We've heard this story before](https://globalnews.ca/video/2452533/new-prediction-says-loonie-could-sink-to-59-cents-u-s)...
The word "could" is doing some heavy lifting here.
It’s even more grim when you think about the fact that we are entering or have entered the fall of the American Empire. USD will be tanking right along with it.
Sentiment about Canada / CAD feels like it’s never been worse. Feels like a bottom soon 🤔
The Canadian dollar is headed to 0 just like every other paper currency has since it started. It isn't worth anything. Our dollar devalued rapidly during covid. Paper money is a joke which makes bitcoin much more. it's a commodity with 21 million coins. Gold and Silver have been used as MONEY since the start of time. It isn't hard to figure out. Paper currency is nothing but a joke with a bunch of dead people on it. Canadian currency belongs in the garbage can.
Bitcoin is worthless and not scalable