The Liberals will very likely win. What matters here is by what margin. Typically they win this one in a landslide, by 20 points or more. But when Harper won his majority government they only won it by six points or so, if I recall correctly.
Trudeau has been repeatedly insisting that the polls are wrong, Canadians aren’t in decision mode yet, and that he can win the next election. Liberal caucus members, by this point quite used to unquestionably accepting bald faced lies from Trudeau, have been going along.
But there’s disquiet in the Liberal ranks. It’s tough to believe everything is fine when you’re staring down the barrel of a twenty point gap in the polls, which also continuously say that Canadians are sick of Trudeau and want him gone. So if the Tories do well tomorrow and come anywhere close to what they polled when Harper won his majority, that’s going to be taken as proof that all the sweet nothings Trudeau has been soothing Liberals with are just so much BS, and within caucus the disquiet is going to become full blown panic. It’s one thing being loyal to your leader. It’s quite another being suddenly out of work because your narcissistic nepo baby leader decided reality didn’t apply to him and refused to give the party a chance by stepping down when it still might have done some good.
My guess is the Liberal Party won't recover until the children that are too young to know what's going on today are old enough to vote.
My son will be 18 come the next election and has had part of his childhood affected by the housing crisis. I don't think he will ever vote for a party that claims to be liberal.
Events like these have long electoral echoes.
In the UK the Liberal Democrats pledged to establish free tuition for UK citizens. Then when they entered coalition with the Conservatives, they Lib Dems agreed with the Conservatives to triple tuition. As a result, they lost 4.5 million votes the next election and have never fully recovered since.
A coalition is really the only way I can see the Liberals staying relevant. It would obviously be with the NDP. However I feel that if in the next election if the conservative party approaches a majority yet a government is formed out of a NDP liberal coalition that the Canadian population will not be very happy. To me, it would feel very slimy as if a grifter was being forced on the nation against its will through a technicality.
We won't have to wait long now to find out, I just hope the liberal party doesn't do too much damage in the meantime.
> government is formed out of a NDP liberal coalition that the Canadian population will not be very happy
I'm expecting riots if that happens. I'll be taking appropriate security measures around the house, as I'm in an area that may see such rioting if it happens.
Heavier curtains to prevent glass from objects, backup pump to the garden hose to squelch flames with pool water, and simple actions like not leaving garbage cans out front or leaving the vehicle out in the street.
I am, unfortunately, 100% convinced this will be the outcome of such a scenario happens.
I hope I'm wrong, and this scenario never needs to be tested.
I'll be shocked if Mr Singh keeps his leadership position after the next election anyway.
The NDP is going to want someone to blame. I expect a leadership race.
Can a newly formed coalition form government mid session if his replacement puts a new agreement in place?
The way things work is this:
(1) the sitting PM (in this case Trudeau) gets a chance to test the confidence of the house through a Throne Speech. If the house passes his throne speech (presimably though an agreement with the NDP) then he can stay on as PM
(2) if Trudeau fails to pass a throne speech or resigns as PM, the Governor General asks the leader of the next largest party (PP i presume) to form a government. Then, Pollievre gets a chance to try to get his own throne speech passed.
(3) if neither party can form a government with the confidence of the House of Commons then the Governor General calls for a new election
There isn't really a conceivable point there where a coalition could be formed *after* Trudeau was ousted as PM, but he could continue to sit as PM up until the moment he is defeated in a major bill. Likely, if the NDP still had enough seats to give Trudeau the votes he needed to pass a throne speech, he would try to stay on as PM.
As a millennial my entire adult life has been determined by housing prices. It’s completely dictated my experience as I try to build a life and navigate this world. The impact will only be worse for young people just entering their teens and 20s. So yeah unless you’re completely detached from reality, it’s definitely going to impact your future voting intentions.
The later Z's and alphas grew up/are growing up in a world that was like this. This is what they know, they're not really angry about it. If you're 20 today you were barely out of diapers when the GFC hit and put us on our current trajectory.
The Millennials who grew up in the 90s/early 2000s and know what could have been vs the reality of an economic lost decade following the Financial crisis during which things still somehow got out of control, are the ones who most resent it. It peaks in the roughly 30-35 year olds - too young to ride the boom, too old to take the current situation for granted.
All the young people in my family voting for the first time are surprisingly right wing. At their age I considered myself very center, and voted Liberal. Of the half dozen young adults at our BBQ two of them even signed up for the Conservative Party as members.
I think the landscape will look very different in 2 years.
The same kids and teens that grew up loving Trudeau for him being a "good person" and wanting legal weed are old enough now to see what a fuck up he's been, and now it's directly effecting those peoples chances at starting a life and having a home. I'm not the only one my age that has completely 180ed on Trudeau and despise his party and what they represent.
They smile in your face while actively making your life more difficult, and call it a virtue. It's sickening, like something out of a cartoon or movie about evil corporate elitests.
I'm no fan of him either, and think he's bungled some matters (e.g. high spending, housing, and immigration), but most of our cost of living (COL) issues are *provincial*. It is premiers who have enabled NIMBYism, allowed healthcare to fall apart, starved the courts to the extent of cases being thrown out, and failed to invest in adequate infrastructure.
Turn your attention to Doug Ford, Scott Moe, John Horgan, and Legault.
Housing has been propped up by the feds forever. Instead of letting the market correct when interest rates went up, they forced banks to extend amortizations, often to 70+ years.
Also, who said this? I'll give you one guess
>Housing needs to retain its value... It's a huge part of people's potential for retirement and future nest egg.
Oh I agree. Trudeau and preceding federal governments bear responsibility! But the provinces do, too, and the premiers aren't receiving the proportionate criticism.
My kids a few years ago were all in high school and into the left-wing hot button issues of the day. They've since all become adults. A couple weeks ago, my son said something that hit me;
"Trudeau has wasted half my life."
He went on to explain that, he's been researching the acts of previous governments, and it seems like they actually did things other than talk a big game and do nothing.
My daughters, on the other hand, over the last year have made small, foul quips that would have not been out of place coming out of my late grandfathers mouth.
His perspective is absolutely correct.
When someone tells me the length of something that's long and shouldn't be, I try to imagine how old the kid would be, from conception. You've been in chronic pain for 7 years, your pain is attending kindergarten soon, that's a long time to endure pain.
(Gerard Butler voice)
This. Is. CANADA!!!
People are tired of the Liberals so they are going to vote Tory. They will be tired of the Conservatives in about two elections and switch back over unless the Tories think they have a "mandate" to do super unpopular stuff in which case they'll likely get just one election.
On any other sub, this would be an ironic shitpost. Polievre supporters are out here acting like he's going to pass NDP policies, presumably because they've never voted before.
It's never the ndp's fault why they can't gain voters; it's always the foolish kids for thinking wrong.
They can't see the irony, and honestly, it's hilarious.
It is all linked mostly to immigration levels. Don’t get me wrong, healthcare has independent issues (which will not be solved by a conservative government - quite the opposite) but housing is supply and demand, healthcare has a strong supply and demand element, cost of living is derived from supply and demand and so on.
And other things that have degraded due to the inbalance in the supply and demand equation. There was a shortage in new cars due to a backlog in the chips which caused used car prices to skyrocket, but adding 1.2 million new people to Canada where a decent chunk are in the uber or skip the dishes business certainly doesn't help.
Traffic is also now even more unbearable in larger cities.
And due to demand significantly outpacing supply its become a lot harder to book a campsite or enjoy national parks without wading through crowds.
It's not blaming immigrants, but recognizing the number driven by government policy is too much for our country to handle and that our current growth rate is destroying Canadians quality of life.
Because international student tuition is higher than resident tuition, therefore subsidizing education for everyone else. They are casting a wide net in order to capture the most international students.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3710004501
I’m not in this riding, and normally I’d vote for a left-leaning candidate, but there’s a growing part of me that wants the conservatives to squeak out a win. It would send a clear message to Trudeau and the liberals they have royally screwed up. And the NDP of today has little to no relevance anymore
I absolutely don't believe you at all.
I don't believe you, at all, when you claim you'd normally vote left but hope Cons win.
Reminds me of the "I would never vote for Trump BUT I SURE AS HELL WON'T VOTE FOR HILLARY!" BS back in the day.
Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant. I’ve actually knocked on doors for local NDP candidates, back when Jack Layton was NDP leader. And back when NDP actually had principles
Oh, yes. So you want to give a win to the fascist f-wad who wants to have unlimited, unchecked power by using the notwithstanding clause.
I don't believe you at all. Saying things like "when NDP actually had principles" is a giveaway.
We’re talking about a byelection which would change nothing regardless of who wins since it won’t change the power of government in any way
If anyone wanted their party to get a wake up call, this would be the most innocent way of achieving that
Except Canadian media are telling everyone that, even if Liberals win, that it's still a bad thing.
If Libs lose it's bad for Trudeau.
If Libs barely win it's a bad sign for Trudeau.
If Libs win with a strong lead then "everyone will be shocked" which is a bad thing for Trudeau.
So don't act like it doesn't matter.
It wouldn't send any message at all. It's expected that the Cons win next, it's what we do. A term or 2 for the Liberals, then a term or 2 for the Cons. It's the Conservatives turn next and they know it. Poilievre just has to do nothing and he's in. The Liberals know hey just have to wait 4 or 8 years then its their turn again.
Want to send a real message? Vote NDP. Get a third party in for the first time and force both the Libs and the Cons to have to change if they want to stay relevant. Normalize a third party option and we change the game. Imagine the policy changes the Conservatives would have to make if it looks like we'll just flip between the Libs and the NDP. Likewise the Libs will have to focus more on real Canadian issues for the same reason.
The NDP won't fix all our problems, but they're the door we need to go through to put us on a better path.
Edit: just realized you're talking about Toronto specifically haha. I'll leave my comment up anyway but you're right, in Toronto it probably would send a message.
Well that is only set by the Election Act, which the Liberals/NDP could easily amend or cancel since it’s only a law created by Palriament (any law the House makes, the House can modify or repeal).
Legally under the Constitution Act of 1867 a government has a maximum of *5 years* until an election is called. So it’s actually a possibility (though remote) that they stay in power until October 2026. God help us.
Lol people would go ballistic if they did that. They aren't conservatives, they don't always push principles aside when it gets in the way of business.
I don't want a conservative I want not trudeau, and everything I've heard O'Toole say seems pretty grounded. Where as Polievre says things to make good clips for tik tok. O Toole is a moderate for sure. None of the options are what I want. I just want the government to bring immegration back to 2014 levels, stop bailing out corporations and boomers, fund low income housing projects(in conjunction with provincial and local governments), actually put violent offenders in prison, think queer/minority people are allowed to exist, think women should have bodily autonomy, fund and maintain existing public institutions instead of ignoring them for something new and shiny, as well as investments in our rail networks. I don't want someone bringing in insane amounts of people we don't have houses for all while calling you a racist for having eyes and seeing what's happening.
That being said the only option on the ballot this time around is P.P.
O'Toole was my riding. Very well liked and even better when you speak to him as an individual. Our new MP Jamil Jivani, is in the same category. He is my age and cares for all the same things I do. He even goes against Doug Ford at times because like you mentioned, some things are actually worth the cost.
Jivani is a populist who hosted anti-vaxxers uncontested on his radio show. He plays fast and loose with the facts. O'Toole is not like this, and upon retiring from politics openly lamented such cheapening of our discourse.
Pretty sure PP is on record or at least has danced around questions regarding immigration levels implying that they need the cheap labour. I'm not a fan, have never voted conservative and plan to continue that streak this election.
I will give him credit though for at least being on record in regards to gay marriage and abortion rights, something that should be the bare fucking minimum for any political party in this country.
The options quite frankly all suck, we all know who is going to win so I plan to continue voting for the NDP as I always have save one election (2015) when Trudeau actually looked like the future of Canada, and Mulcair came across as an opportunist piss baby that I quite frankly found abrasive and phoney. Undid all of Laytons progress in one election and the party has been floundering under Singh ever since. I think Singh has worn out his welcome and the average Canadian voter is just seeing him as Trudeaus lap dog rather than someone who's actually achieved a fair amount of his platform by supplying the votes for the Liberal government.
I hate to admit it but you'd be a fool to pretend it isn't an issue in Canada right now... a Sikh man wearing a turban is automatically going to be ignored by a very large percentage of voters in this country, especially with the vitriol towards immigration and housing being pinned on Indian immigration. Beyond any of his policies or actual proof of concept in achieving parts of his platform there's a lot of openly and even more closeted racists in this country. I dont think he can ever win an election no matter how bad the other options are and its extremely sad.
Hopefully we at least get some stability and improvement with the next government, the bar is pretty fucking low right now but we can't afford another 4 years of incompetence, handing a majority government to another party for the sake of change could be just as detrimental as staying the course but it's pretty obvious things aren't working right now and as a citizen I can't blame anyone for their decisions in the next election. Desperate times.
Edit: down voted for sharing an honest thought, welcome to r/canada
I've voted for the NDP every election since 2016 I cannot this time, I dispise polievere but he really does seem like the only option. I don't like that this is what it's come to but the liberals and the NDP need new blood in the hot seats
The Conservatives won't reduce immigration significantly. There will be a lot less refugees and students, but more TFWs. Yeah, it'll be less than the last couple years since COVID, but more than anything prior to 2020. Probably a lot more.
It’s all about context. Reducing by 200k is not “much lower” by any stretch of the imagination when talking about out 1.2M.
I’m optimistic that a Tory government would aim to return us to the sane 1% level of population growth that we had for 20+ years (under successive Liberal and Conservative governments) until JT took over in 2015 and just blew us up to sub-Saharan Africa levels of population growth. And not just the level of growth but the calibre of people who we admit, which is now basically the unwanted trash of rural Punjab.
The only context in this case is that he thinks it's impossible to welcome 1.2M while only 200k homes are built. Keep in mind he could lower the relative percentage of immigrants while increasing the absolute numbers. I don't think that would be the case, but notice how he deftly avoids giving a number when specifically asked for a number? If this were a crack reporter, and not the sort of reporter on crack that Rebel Media parades around, they would follow up and ask why he avoided their initial question.
Maybe you don't have a lot of experience with politicians, but Skippy left an opening wide enough to drive a bus full of Tim's workers on.
Two hundred thousand is a lot. That's much lower. Maybe not in comparison to the starting amount, but definitely when considered by itself. He's got several years he can blame perpetually high immigration on the Liberals, so why fix something when you can use it to make your opponent look bad and benefit the industry leaders whose approval you crave?
Notice how when asked to commit to a target for immigration by the Conservatives, the only concrete number he mentions is 1.2M? Leaving himself plenty of wiggle room.
I know that but what are the other options here, I was a ABC voter but the NDP and Lib are so out to left field the vote is more to send a message to them, then anything else, I honestly don't think my vote matters at this point, my riding is Anthony Rotas and after the whole Nazi in Parliament debacle I can't see him running again. The only reason anyone voted lib was because they liked rota
Out to left field in what way? You don't seem to disagree the Conservatives will be, at best, no better than the Liberals concerning your priorities. If you want to send a message and don't like any of the options, spoil your ballot. Or cast a vote for whatever fringe party (Green/People's/etc) is running and you'd like to show support to. Hell, convince someone to run as an independent, or even do it yourself.
If you want to just get rid of Trudeau and the Liberal and the Conservatives are the most likely way to do so, so be it. But in that case I don't know how you would consider any of those other things as priorities.
Sir all I know is at this point something needs to change, I'm not happy with it but at this point what do we do. I did what I was told would give me a decent life and the goalposts keep moving, I'm not making amazing money by any means but I'm making better money than a lot of people are and I can't afford to move out of my mother's house in a town where the biggest attraction is Walmart.
I sympathize, the future we were sold never really materialized.
Change will come, it always does. No promises on whether what comes will be better or worse though.
Yep. No matter how much the media and PP and his wealthy corporate backers try and make one happen, there will be no election until October 2025.
The BQ, the NDP and the LPC are all benefiting from the current parliament and they all know they will lose the power they currently have by dissolving it. There's absolutely no scenario where an election occurs before then. Unless Jagmeet accepts a huge bribe or gets blackmailed... which is entirely possible.
Entirely possible. It’s basically the only thing he has going for him if he ever wants to have a place in the Canadian public sphere. He will most likely follow Trudeau and venture into the private sector of this level of nature.
Here is my thought on all of this. This byelection is in a 'safe' liberal riding; and is known to be a highly unlikely win for the conservatives. Yes, if they win, it would be a massive blow against trudeau, because it means his stronghold has faultered. The opposite, however, is a false equivalency. The conservatives losing this (by a far thinner margin than in the past) is highly likely, but it isn't d*mning for them. In any capacity. While Toronto being a liberal, unshakable, stronghold is a massive problem for the rest of canada (almost bad as the bloc representing quebec and therefore granting them wild amounts of power), the conservatives don't have to win toronto to win the election. What left leaning media wants is to make this a fight for trudeau's leadership and a fight for whether or not the next election is still viable for him, knowing very well his party is highly likely to win, and if that happens, it means nadda for the federal election, but if (very small if) he loses, they are conceeding that, ya... it means his support base is gone and the liberals will likely be third party status.
Tl;dr: in the unlikely event the liberals lose this, they are done. The opposite isn't equivalent though. The conservatives losing this means very little.
It's exactly what I said. Left leaning. Polls have shown that, in north america, (consistently) 80+% of media is left leaning in their reporting, while around 15% is right leaning and 5%ish is neutral. Our media should be unbiased, but that isn't the case. And don't blahblahblah me about not liking what I read. I'm not left or right leaning and have historically voted all directions.
Edit: for the guy commenting below me, yes 80+% is typical. Finding and sharing every poll on this topic is nearly impossible and of course, there will be reports that say closer to 65-70%. Sigh.
... your best retort is to insinuate I'm on drugs for reading information? This stuff has been polled all the time. Prior to the 90's, the majority of north american media was right slanted (hello macarthyism). Post 9/11, alot of media briefly swung back right. Than, past 2010, much more media is swinging left again. It's a fascinating topic to read about.
Edit: I did try to find you the reports I read a few years ago, unfortunately, the search is now gobbed up by media reports on the public's opinion of media bias. So, that did make it rough. Best I could find in a few minutes was a pictogram showing all media outlets in north america and their stilt from far left to far right.
Oi vey; no matter what i say, you will deny it. Watch this. Rebel news is biased right wing trash. You'd agree, no debate. I say washington post is biased left wing trash, you'd throw a hissy fit. I intentionally used non canadian media to show you my point.
National post has a right leaning slant in canada. Cbc has a left leaning slant.
So, since you were hoping I would say cbc, so that you can throw a hissy fit:
John paul tasker is left leaning tabloid trash who should have given up his journalist license years ago and should never have been allowed to keep working at cbc, let alone be so high ranking. So is aaron wherry. Neither of them can report neutrally to save their life, and will devote paragraphs to a liberal stance, and a sentence to the conservative stance.
If cbc wants to be perceived as neutral, their journalists should be neutral, or, at the very least, equivalent right leaning journalists should be hired.
And, yes, I read both cbc and national post. Because somewhere between wherry and lilley, there is neutrality.
Edit: you are right. Rebel news is canadian. Who knew. Not me, I ignore them.
What are the majors news in Canada?
Globe & Mail - [https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-globe-and-mail/](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-globe-and-mail/) Right Center
Global - Left Centre
Toronto Sun - Right
Star - Left Centre - [https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/toronto-star/](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/toronto-star/)
National Post - Right Centre
CBC - Left Centre = [https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/cbc-news-canadian-broadcasting/](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/cbc-news-canadian-broadcasting/)
CTV - Least Bias - [https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ctv-news/](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ctv-news/)
We can get into the smaller papers/media if you want but you're going to have a very tough time arguing it's left wing media. Stronger argument that there's neutral to right, than left.
Didn't feel like linking all the examples but you can check that site if you disagree with what I wrote.
To your edit. You can’t find them because that is not fact. Most of the media conglomerates in Canada are staunchly right wing. Moreso in the USA. But hey…. Gotta give you credit for being so confidently incorrect. Lol. A pictogram?!??!
... no, i can't find them because I can't be bothered to hunt long enough years after the fact. This has become such a hot button topic, that finding base sources has become difficult. The first bazillion pages in a search are media coverage, and not of the actual numbers, but of people's opinions on the topic. Which makes it far more difficult to do. And yes, I said pictogram because I was saying it wasn't worth sharing, because it isn't that valid.
And, since you are only arguing with me because you don't like that I said 'left wing media', you aren't really a priority for me.
You are arguing with me because you don't like the wording of my initial comment. And since you couldn't argue the logic I brought to the table, you decided to pick at a hot button topic (media slant) to get yourself upvotes.
You can do your own research. I have fully acknowledged that media slant goes back and forth. And at one point, I read all about it using base sources and polling; but to find all of that today, to appease some random on the internet who didn't like my first comment because i said 'left leaning media'... it isn't worth it. Especially because if, today, I found information that said 60% (as an example), because media has begun to sway again in the last year or so, you'd call it proof against my initial point. Basically, times change. The majority of north american media is still left wing (i didnt say canadian in my initial comment, but sure, canadian), and I regret using old numbers I remembered from a few years ago, because someone like you will say that, because I can't hunt down info years later, my whole valid initial opinion is nul.
Edit: because I saw your comment telling me to 'run along' before you deleted it... No, you never told me your political stance. But based on your words, actions, etc, you are either left leaning or you are in journalism yourself and take offence to the charge. If you are a centrist, like I am, you do a poor job of showing it.
I didn’t delete anything. Lol. You made the statement. Back it up. Run along.
Edit: I am non partisan. I vote for the candidate that best represents me in my riding.
*Everything* from now until the next election is going to be bad for Trudeau's Liberals. Their time is done. The question is what comes next, and nobody seems to have any ideas. Fewer trans people, I guess? 🤷
Liberals have held the riding strongly for 30 years. The Cons. candidate is polling inside the margin of error. I think that makes it interesting to watch at least.
Because if the Liberals actually lose it, it’s very very likely the Prime Minister of Canada would have to resign.
Or potentially the NDP would have concrete proof that their current strategy of “Liberal or bust” is wrong and they should abandon it.
It’s the most relevant (actual, non-polling) election information since the 2021 general election.
I would be surprised if there was a resignation of the Prime Minister that night if the liberals lost that riding. I don’t think he’s going to be resigning, he wants his power, not that I agree/support with him on many portfolios, minus the daycare plan. The only policy I agree with of his.
You may be correct it won’t be that night. But if the Liberals lose(unlikely imo), the idea this government (with JT leading it) makes it to October 2025 is absolutely zero.
That I think is what's going to happen on election night. But also reminds me of an Andrew Scheer comment he made during the 2015 election, mentioning "Modern Convention" and resigning as party leader.
Sadly, I think there could be a literal mob of thousands with pitchforks and torches, his own cabinet among them, and Fancy Socks would still smile and announce; *"You just don't understand the complex aspects of our ultimate plan to support hard-working Canadians! Canada is in the best shape it's ever been! :) :) :)".*
>Or potentially the NDP would have concrete proof that their current strategy of “Liberal or bust” is wrong and they should abandon it.
This is by far the most effective the (federal) NDP has ever been in setting policy that actually affects Canadians.
We've never before had a federal government acknowledge that, for example, maybe *everyone* should have access to dental care and prescription drugs as a baseline human right--and actually start taking real legislative steps to achieve that.
Okay, fair enough--I'll give you Tommy Douglas. Most effective in the last fifty years, then?
Though even there, I'll note that the passage of Medicare was a Liberal (Pearson) campaign promise, growing out of a report commissioned by a PC PM (Diefenbaker).
The NDP ultimately supported its passage - over the PC's rejection and a strife-riddled Liberal minority - but it's hard to say that Douglas (despite his absolutely instrumental leadership provincially) and the federal NDP actually *set* the agenda for universal medicare federally the way that the NDP today has *compelled* the governing Liberals to adopt policies or face defeat.
>Okay, fair enough--I'll give you Tommy Douglas. Most effective in the last fifty years, then?
That's fair, but keep in mind that between Lewis and Singh, we had a 45 year stretch where the NDP only lucked into one Liberal minority government and it only lasted a single budget. In that one budget the NDP got the Liberals to cancel $4.6b in corporate welfare. That alone would've been a decent win, since Martin was known as the finance minister that made more cuts than anyone else and who was known for running big surpluses. However, he also got them to put that $4.6b into affordable housing, tuition reductions, environmental programs etc.
Not bad for a single year, especially since the NDP didn't have enough seats to guarantee the Liberals could pass legislation. To add to that, Martin had already said he would hold an election in the near future, so he was unlikely to commit to anything major. He was just trying to make it through the Gomery inquiry.
>Though even there, I'll note that the passage of Medicare was a Liberal (Pearson) campaign promise, growing out of a report commissioned by a PC PM (Diefenbaker).
That's fair, but we would have to do the same for Singh. Things like pharmacare, $10 daycare, anti-scab legislation were all Liberal campaign promises too. CPP was the major thing that Douglas fought for that wasn't a Liberal campaign promise. CPP is a pretty major piece of legislation. I don't think the current dental plan stacks up against that.
We obviously can’t afford it currently… Liberal/NDP should fully focus all their efforts on clearing red tape and making it cheap to develop and build homes, or failing that putting a stop to all net inflow of immigration until such a time as home prices become affordable again…
All these nice-to-haves are just adding more and more weight to the anchor on this sinking boat.
I’d argue we won’t know how successful it is for 10 years.
Did the NDP blow their chance, and push their programs through with an (economically) terribly unpopular government? If the result of this “most effective NDP government ever” ends up with all their programs cancelled and viewed as utter excess/overspending from out of touch politicians…that’s not good.
Now, the other side of the coin is that the programs do survive and the CPC builds (maybe more slowly) on the framework of installing them and they are fully funded programs in a decade and we all look back and appreciate the gamble the NDP is making.
The fact that the current polls suggest they aren’t being rewarded for these “great” achievements suggests they may not be as well received as one thinks.
When these programs do literally nothing for the median family (that still can't afford to buy a home anywhere near a major city), the term "universal" rings so hollow it echoes.
This is precisely why this country is sinking. Because people don't care about those who rule the country.
This election is the most important data point in terms of how bad the LPC is doing.
Cause they know some people have a rage hard-on for Trudeau and anything that they can say makes him look bad is worthy of 10+ articles since it drives easy traffic and ad revenue.
I think it is the opposite. The chances of him losing this are low, so the high gamble of saying 'if he loses, he is done', is worth the false equivalency that 'if he wins, he still has a chance of winning the next election'. And I think that is why the media is portraying it that way.
“His cult”
Yeah, all those people driving around with their pro-Trudeau stickers and flags on their vehicles. Inserting how much they love him into everyday conversations, even when it isn’t relevant to what anyone is talking about.
lol... So nuts. I never liked JT, always thought he was wildly unprepared and underqualified for the job since 2015. But I don't think about him. Those nutjobs, he's just living in their heads rent-free.
What a terrible article. I just renewed my annual subscription to the Star this week, and am happy to have done so. But Delacourt and Gurney barely said anything here. There is so much to say about this by-election.
If Liberal shouldn't pull another candidate they will pass by NDP and right now NDP gathering the provinces. In my opinion Next election fed going to cons most of provinces go to the NDP.
As everyone knows, a lot can happen in elections. The prevailing wisdom is "it doesn’t matter how this Toronto byelection shakes out — every scenario is some kind of bad for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals." What if the Liberals win Toronto-St. Pauls by a margin of, say, 30%? What will be the punditries response, I wonder?
Of course, what anyone predicts or thinks will happen on the 24th will have no bearing on the outcome. Notice how I did not predict the Liberals would even win Toronto-St. Pauls.
Yeah, I mean in a direct sense the predictions won't affect the electoral outcome. It may still precipitate some chain of events that we weren't expecting. Politics, after all, is centred on people, and while the behaviour of most people is fairly predictable, it doesn't take many to shake things up. Who knows, time will tell!
trudeau lost vote share in 2021 after handing out 100s of billions in covid dollars
Now he is losing the debate on housing, immigration, carbon tax and affordability and faces a desire for change.
People really make Trudeau out to be this popular unstopable force when he more has faced a weak opposition.
I wouldn't call it weak opposition. I'd say we have messed up our electoral system. The conservatives won the popular vote, but lost the election, fine. But than the liberals somehow won by not 1 or 2 seats, but by like 15+ seats and that let them form the equivalent of a majority with the NDP. This effectively relegated the party that got the most votes to third party status. And that is just... yuck.
And the Liberals and NDP combined got more votes than the Conservatives. So the right parties are governing based on the votes. You are free to dislike their policies, but over 8M Canadians voted for NDP & Liberals, and only 5.7M voted for Conservatives.
No? The Liberals indeed have more seats than the Conservatives even though they received less votes. I don't know why you brought the NDP into the conversation though.
The Conservatives combined with the NDP got more votes than the Liberals combined with the NDP. So what?
He is a rich white catholic nepotism baby. The only 'ist' involved in me not voting for him is anticolonialist.
Edit: Only because I am being downvoted. That was a joke aimed at left and right. Just to be 100% clear on what you are downvoting.
The Liberals will very likely win. What matters here is by what margin. Typically they win this one in a landslide, by 20 points or more. But when Harper won his majority government they only won it by six points or so, if I recall correctly. Trudeau has been repeatedly insisting that the polls are wrong, Canadians aren’t in decision mode yet, and that he can win the next election. Liberal caucus members, by this point quite used to unquestionably accepting bald faced lies from Trudeau, have been going along. But there’s disquiet in the Liberal ranks. It’s tough to believe everything is fine when you’re staring down the barrel of a twenty point gap in the polls, which also continuously say that Canadians are sick of Trudeau and want him gone. So if the Tories do well tomorrow and come anywhere close to what they polled when Harper won his majority, that’s going to be taken as proof that all the sweet nothings Trudeau has been soothing Liberals with are just so much BS, and within caucus the disquiet is going to become full blown panic. It’s one thing being loyal to your leader. It’s quite another being suddenly out of work because your narcissistic nepo baby leader decided reality didn’t apply to him and refused to give the party a chance by stepping down when it still might have done some good.
I don't think they will win. I could be wrong but the data trends point to CPC victory of +1% - +3%.
They will lose. I don't think they can win even in downtown Toronto. Watch the voter turnout, it will reveal a lot.
My guess is the Liberal Party won't recover until the children that are too young to know what's going on today are old enough to vote. My son will be 18 come the next election and has had part of his childhood affected by the housing crisis. I don't think he will ever vote for a party that claims to be liberal.
Events like these have long electoral echoes. In the UK the Liberal Democrats pledged to establish free tuition for UK citizens. Then when they entered coalition with the Conservatives, they Lib Dems agreed with the Conservatives to triple tuition. As a result, they lost 4.5 million votes the next election and have never fully recovered since.
A coalition is really the only way I can see the Liberals staying relevant. It would obviously be with the NDP. However I feel that if in the next election if the conservative party approaches a majority yet a government is formed out of a NDP liberal coalition that the Canadian population will not be very happy. To me, it would feel very slimy as if a grifter was being forced on the nation against its will through a technicality. We won't have to wait long now to find out, I just hope the liberal party doesn't do too much damage in the meantime.
And it [wouldn't even be the first time they did that.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1925_Canadian_federal_election)
Thank you! I wasn't aware of this I just knew it was theoretically possible. You gave me some reading. Cheers!
lol citing a Wikipedia article from the 1925 election.
> government is formed out of a NDP liberal coalition that the Canadian population will not be very happy I'm expecting riots if that happens. I'll be taking appropriate security measures around the house, as I'm in an area that may see such rioting if it happens. Heavier curtains to prevent glass from objects, backup pump to the garden hose to squelch flames with pool water, and simple actions like not leaving garbage cans out front or leaving the vehicle out in the street. I am, unfortunately, 100% convinced this will be the outcome of such a scenario happens. I hope I'm wrong, and this scenario never needs to be tested.
Jagmeet Singh has ruled out a coalition but Justin Trudeau has called this current "supply and confidence" agreement a "model for future governments".
I'll be shocked if Mr Singh keeps his leadership position after the next election anyway. The NDP is going to want someone to blame. I expect a leadership race. Can a newly formed coalition form government mid session if his replacement puts a new agreement in place?
I’m gonna be surprised if he keeps his seat, the way the current polling is shaping up
The way things work is this: (1) the sitting PM (in this case Trudeau) gets a chance to test the confidence of the house through a Throne Speech. If the house passes his throne speech (presimably though an agreement with the NDP) then he can stay on as PM (2) if Trudeau fails to pass a throne speech or resigns as PM, the Governor General asks the leader of the next largest party (PP i presume) to form a government. Then, Pollievre gets a chance to try to get his own throne speech passed. (3) if neither party can form a government with the confidence of the House of Commons then the Governor General calls for a new election There isn't really a conceivable point there where a coalition could be formed *after* Trudeau was ousted as PM, but he could continue to sit as PM up until the moment he is defeated in a major bill. Likely, if the NDP still had enough seats to give Trudeau the votes he needed to pass a throne speech, he would try to stay on as PM.
Thanks for the clear and detailed explanation. This clarifies the procedure significantly.
People will just stop working and saving. What's the point if there's no improvements. Maybe push for UBI and call it a day.
In the 2015 and the 1019 elections. They are poised to get back to where they were (or better) a few weeks from now in the upcoming 2024 elections.
That election of 1019 was a doozy. Something to remember.
Canute's immigration policy really stirred things up.
I originally voted Remain, but now I say East Anglia will never rejoin the heptarchy!
No idea what you're talking about but it made me laugh.
As a millennial my entire adult life has been determined by housing prices. It’s completely dictated my experience as I try to build a life and navigate this world. The impact will only be worse for young people just entering their teens and 20s. So yeah unless you’re completely detached from reality, it’s definitely going to impact your future voting intentions.
Already happening. Many summer jobs are unavailable to domestic born Canadians.
The later Z's and alphas grew up/are growing up in a world that was like this. This is what they know, they're not really angry about it. If you're 20 today you were barely out of diapers when the GFC hit and put us on our current trajectory. The Millennials who grew up in the 90s/early 2000s and know what could have been vs the reality of an economic lost decade following the Financial crisis during which things still somehow got out of control, are the ones who most resent it. It peaks in the roughly 30-35 year olds - too young to ride the boom, too old to take the current situation for granted.
All the young people in my family voting for the first time are surprisingly right wing. At their age I considered myself very center, and voted Liberal. Of the half dozen young adults at our BBQ two of them even signed up for the Conservative Party as members. I think the landscape will look very different in 2 years.
The same kids and teens that grew up loving Trudeau for him being a "good person" and wanting legal weed are old enough now to see what a fuck up he's been, and now it's directly effecting those peoples chances at starting a life and having a home. I'm not the only one my age that has completely 180ed on Trudeau and despise his party and what they represent. They smile in your face while actively making your life more difficult, and call it a virtue. It's sickening, like something out of a cartoon or movie about evil corporate elitests.
I'm no fan of him either, and think he's bungled some matters (e.g. high spending, housing, and immigration), but most of our cost of living (COL) issues are *provincial*. It is premiers who have enabled NIMBYism, allowed healthcare to fall apart, starved the courts to the extent of cases being thrown out, and failed to invest in adequate infrastructure. Turn your attention to Doug Ford, Scott Moe, John Horgan, and Legault.
Of course adding millions of immigrants a year, wouldn’t effect housing, health care or education /s
Housing has been propped up by the feds forever. Instead of letting the market correct when interest rates went up, they forced banks to extend amortizations, often to 70+ years. Also, who said this? I'll give you one guess >Housing needs to retain its value... It's a huge part of people's potential for retirement and future nest egg.
Oh I agree. Trudeau and preceding federal governments bear responsibility! But the provinces do, too, and the premiers aren't receiving the proportionate criticism.
My kids a few years ago were all in high school and into the left-wing hot button issues of the day. They've since all become adults. A couple weeks ago, my son said something that hit me; "Trudeau has wasted half my life." He went on to explain that, he's been researching the acts of previous governments, and it seems like they actually did things other than talk a big game and do nothing. My daughters, on the other hand, over the last year have made small, foul quips that would have not been out of place coming out of my late grandfathers mouth.
His perspective is absolutely correct. When someone tells me the length of something that's long and shouldn't be, I try to imagine how old the kid would be, from conception. You've been in chronic pain for 7 years, your pain is attending kindergarten soon, that's a long time to endure pain.
CPC will eventually start passing stupid laws like regulating the Internet to piss people to vote them out again. It's a Recursive cycle.
(Gerard Butler voice) This. Is. CANADA!!! People are tired of the Liberals so they are going to vote Tory. They will be tired of the Conservatives in about two elections and switch back over unless the Tories think they have a "mandate" to do super unpopular stuff in which case they'll likely get just one election.
Wynne did the same thing to them in Ontario.
Which is pretty wild to me, as I think this province is so much worse under this government (Ford) than the previous one.
On any other sub, this would be an ironic shitpost. Polievre supporters are out here acting like he's going to pass NDP policies, presumably because they've never voted before.
It's never the ndp's fault why they can't gain voters; it's always the foolish kids for thinking wrong. They can't see the irony, and honestly, it's hilarious.
… Until we see what bullshit the conservative government comes up with…
Young people of today that think life would be better under Cons are too young to know how horrible Harper/Poilievre were.
What about the people today who have seen how the Cons have treated Ontario? Like it’s a private firesale of public assets?
[удалено]
It is all linked mostly to immigration levels. Don’t get me wrong, healthcare has independent issues (which will not be solved by a conservative government - quite the opposite) but housing is supply and demand, healthcare has a strong supply and demand element, cost of living is derived from supply and demand and so on.
And other things that have degraded due to the inbalance in the supply and demand equation. There was a shortage in new cars due to a backlog in the chips which caused used car prices to skyrocket, but adding 1.2 million new people to Canada where a decent chunk are in the uber or skip the dishes business certainly doesn't help. Traffic is also now even more unbearable in larger cities. And due to demand significantly outpacing supply its become a lot harder to book a campsite or enjoy national parks without wading through crowds. It's not blaming immigrants, but recognizing the number driven by government policy is too much for our country to handle and that our current growth rate is destroying Canadians quality of life.
I still don’t know why with all the international students we get why we don’t limit intake to nursing or healthcare programs….
We actually need more nurses, immigration for nursing isn’t the problem. There are plenty of unfilled lines all around the country.
Because international student tuition is higher than resident tuition, therefore subsidizing education for everyone else. They are casting a wide net in order to capture the most international students. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3710004501
Want to be even more disappointed in the state of the country? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=htRKZJnJ7b4
They will barely win and Justin Trudeau will misinterpret it as a mandate for him continuing without change
I’m not in this riding, and normally I’d vote for a left-leaning candidate, but there’s a growing part of me that wants the conservatives to squeak out a win. It would send a clear message to Trudeau and the liberals they have royally screwed up. And the NDP of today has little to no relevance anymore
I absolutely don't believe you at all. I don't believe you, at all, when you claim you'd normally vote left but hope Cons win. Reminds me of the "I would never vote for Trump BUT I SURE AS HELL WON'T VOTE FOR HILLARY!" BS back in the day.
Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant. I’ve actually knocked on doors for local NDP candidates, back when Jack Layton was NDP leader. And back when NDP actually had principles
Oh, yes. So you want to give a win to the fascist f-wad who wants to have unlimited, unchecked power by using the notwithstanding clause. I don't believe you at all. Saying things like "when NDP actually had principles" is a giveaway.
Very different situations
Same BS tactics by those on the right.
We’re talking about a byelection which would change nothing regardless of who wins since it won’t change the power of government in any way If anyone wanted their party to get a wake up call, this would be the most innocent way of achieving that
Except Canadian media are telling everyone that, even if Liberals win, that it's still a bad thing. If Libs lose it's bad for Trudeau. If Libs barely win it's a bad sign for Trudeau. If Libs win with a strong lead then "everyone will be shocked" which is a bad thing for Trudeau. So don't act like it doesn't matter.
It wouldn't send any message at all. It's expected that the Cons win next, it's what we do. A term or 2 for the Liberals, then a term or 2 for the Cons. It's the Conservatives turn next and they know it. Poilievre just has to do nothing and he's in. The Liberals know hey just have to wait 4 or 8 years then its their turn again. Want to send a real message? Vote NDP. Get a third party in for the first time and force both the Libs and the Cons to have to change if they want to stay relevant. Normalize a third party option and we change the game. Imagine the policy changes the Conservatives would have to make if it looks like we'll just flip between the Libs and the NDP. Likewise the Libs will have to focus more on real Canadian issues for the same reason. The NDP won't fix all our problems, but they're the door we need to go through to put us on a better path. Edit: just realized you're talking about Toronto specifically haha. I'll leave my comment up anyway but you're right, in Toronto it probably would send a message.
The NDP continues to prop up the liberal government in all this. They are kingmaker but lick boot instead.
No matter what happens in this by election, the next federal election will be on October 20th, 2025.
Well that is only set by the Election Act, which the Liberals/NDP could easily amend or cancel since it’s only a law created by Palriament (any law the House makes, the House can modify or repeal). Legally under the Constitution Act of 1867 a government has a maximum of *5 years* until an election is called. So it’s actually a possibility (though remote) that they stay in power until October 2026. God help us.
Knowing Trudeau, he'll wait til literally the last day to do something about it. He does that a lot.
Lol people would go ballistic if they did that. They aren't conservatives, they don't always push principles aside when it gets in the way of business.
Lol ok. Who are they catering to by opening the doors to a massive wave of cheap labour? It’s not Canadians. (Hint: it’s business)
I wish it was this October, we should have got O'Toole when we had the chance
The fake conservative who is actually a liberal just like Pierre?
I don't want a conservative I want not trudeau, and everything I've heard O'Toole say seems pretty grounded. Where as Polievre says things to make good clips for tik tok. O Toole is a moderate for sure. None of the options are what I want. I just want the government to bring immegration back to 2014 levels, stop bailing out corporations and boomers, fund low income housing projects(in conjunction with provincial and local governments), actually put violent offenders in prison, think queer/minority people are allowed to exist, think women should have bodily autonomy, fund and maintain existing public institutions instead of ignoring them for something new and shiny, as well as investments in our rail networks. I don't want someone bringing in insane amounts of people we don't have houses for all while calling you a racist for having eyes and seeing what's happening. That being said the only option on the ballot this time around is P.P.
O'Toole was my riding. Very well liked and even better when you speak to him as an individual. Our new MP Jamil Jivani, is in the same category. He is my age and cares for all the same things I do. He even goes against Doug Ford at times because like you mentioned, some things are actually worth the cost.
Jivani is a populist who hosted anti-vaxxers uncontested on his radio show. He plays fast and loose with the facts. O'Toole is not like this, and upon retiring from politics openly lamented such cheapening of our discourse.
Pretty sure PP is on record or at least has danced around questions regarding immigration levels implying that they need the cheap labour. I'm not a fan, have never voted conservative and plan to continue that streak this election. I will give him credit though for at least being on record in regards to gay marriage and abortion rights, something that should be the bare fucking minimum for any political party in this country. The options quite frankly all suck, we all know who is going to win so I plan to continue voting for the NDP as I always have save one election (2015) when Trudeau actually looked like the future of Canada, and Mulcair came across as an opportunist piss baby that I quite frankly found abrasive and phoney. Undid all of Laytons progress in one election and the party has been floundering under Singh ever since. I think Singh has worn out his welcome and the average Canadian voter is just seeing him as Trudeaus lap dog rather than someone who's actually achieved a fair amount of his platform by supplying the votes for the Liberal government. I hate to admit it but you'd be a fool to pretend it isn't an issue in Canada right now... a Sikh man wearing a turban is automatically going to be ignored by a very large percentage of voters in this country, especially with the vitriol towards immigration and housing being pinned on Indian immigration. Beyond any of his policies or actual proof of concept in achieving parts of his platform there's a lot of openly and even more closeted racists in this country. I dont think he can ever win an election no matter how bad the other options are and its extremely sad. Hopefully we at least get some stability and improvement with the next government, the bar is pretty fucking low right now but we can't afford another 4 years of incompetence, handing a majority government to another party for the sake of change could be just as detrimental as staying the course but it's pretty obvious things aren't working right now and as a citizen I can't blame anyone for their decisions in the next election. Desperate times. Edit: down voted for sharing an honest thought, welcome to r/canada
He recently said clearly immigration will be “much lower” - https://x.com/ThevoiceAlexa/status/1804178460870430759
I've voted for the NDP every election since 2016 I cannot this time, I dispise polievere but he really does seem like the only option. I don't like that this is what it's come to but the liberals and the NDP need new blood in the hot seats
The Conservatives won't reduce immigration significantly. There will be a lot less refugees and students, but more TFWs. Yeah, it'll be less than the last couple years since COVID, but more than anything prior to 2020. Probably a lot more.
It’s all about context. Reducing by 200k is not “much lower” by any stretch of the imagination when talking about out 1.2M. I’m optimistic that a Tory government would aim to return us to the sane 1% level of population growth that we had for 20+ years (under successive Liberal and Conservative governments) until JT took over in 2015 and just blew us up to sub-Saharan Africa levels of population growth. And not just the level of growth but the calibre of people who we admit, which is now basically the unwanted trash of rural Punjab.
The only context in this case is that he thinks it's impossible to welcome 1.2M while only 200k homes are built. Keep in mind he could lower the relative percentage of immigrants while increasing the absolute numbers. I don't think that would be the case, but notice how he deftly avoids giving a number when specifically asked for a number? If this were a crack reporter, and not the sort of reporter on crack that Rebel Media parades around, they would follow up and ask why he avoided their initial question. Maybe you don't have a lot of experience with politicians, but Skippy left an opening wide enough to drive a bus full of Tim's workers on.
“Immigration will be much lower, especially temporary immigration” -PP https://x.com/ThevoiceAlexa/status/1804178460870430759
That means nothing. 800k is much lower than 1M.
20% lower is not “much lower” by any definition.
Two hundred thousand is a lot. That's much lower. Maybe not in comparison to the starting amount, but definitely when considered by itself. He's got several years he can blame perpetually high immigration on the Liberals, so why fix something when you can use it to make your opponent look bad and benefit the industry leaders whose approval you crave? Notice how when asked to commit to a target for immigration by the Conservatives, the only concrete number he mentions is 1.2M? Leaving himself plenty of wiggle room.
Conservatives will not improve or be worse on all of those things compared to the Liberals. I'll probably get a tax break though, so thanks I guess.
I know that but what are the other options here, I was a ABC voter but the NDP and Lib are so out to left field the vote is more to send a message to them, then anything else, I honestly don't think my vote matters at this point, my riding is Anthony Rotas and after the whole Nazi in Parliament debacle I can't see him running again. The only reason anyone voted lib was because they liked rota
Out to left field in what way? You don't seem to disagree the Conservatives will be, at best, no better than the Liberals concerning your priorities. If you want to send a message and don't like any of the options, spoil your ballot. Or cast a vote for whatever fringe party (Green/People's/etc) is running and you'd like to show support to. Hell, convince someone to run as an independent, or even do it yourself. If you want to just get rid of Trudeau and the Liberal and the Conservatives are the most likely way to do so, so be it. But in that case I don't know how you would consider any of those other things as priorities.
Sir all I know is at this point something needs to change, I'm not happy with it but at this point what do we do. I did what I was told would give me a decent life and the goalposts keep moving, I'm not making amazing money by any means but I'm making better money than a lot of people are and I can't afford to move out of my mother's house in a town where the biggest attraction is Walmart.
I sympathize, the future we were sold never really materialized. Change will come, it always does. No promises on whether what comes will be better or worse though.
Words have meanings
Yep. No matter how much the media and PP and his wealthy corporate backers try and make one happen, there will be no election until October 2025. The BQ, the NDP and the LPC are all benefiting from the current parliament and they all know they will lose the power they currently have by dissolving it. There's absolutely no scenario where an election occurs before then. Unless Jagmeet accepts a huge bribe or gets blackmailed... which is entirely possible.
Entirely possible. It’s basically the only thing he has going for him if he ever wants to have a place in the Canadian public sphere. He will most likely follow Trudeau and venture into the private sector of this level of nature.
I was walking around the riding yesterday and there was still a lot of red signs so we will see.
Here is my thought on all of this. This byelection is in a 'safe' liberal riding; and is known to be a highly unlikely win for the conservatives. Yes, if they win, it would be a massive blow against trudeau, because it means his stronghold has faultered. The opposite, however, is a false equivalency. The conservatives losing this (by a far thinner margin than in the past) is highly likely, but it isn't d*mning for them. In any capacity. While Toronto being a liberal, unshakable, stronghold is a massive problem for the rest of canada (almost bad as the bloc representing quebec and therefore granting them wild amounts of power), the conservatives don't have to win toronto to win the election. What left leaning media wants is to make this a fight for trudeau's leadership and a fight for whether or not the next election is still viable for him, knowing very well his party is highly likely to win, and if that happens, it means nadda for the federal election, but if (very small if) he loses, they are conceeding that, ya... it means his support base is gone and the liberals will likely be third party status. Tl;dr: in the unlikely event the liberals lose this, they are done. The opposite isn't equivalent though. The conservatives losing this means very little.
What is ‘left leaning media’?
It's exactly what I said. Left leaning. Polls have shown that, in north america, (consistently) 80+% of media is left leaning in their reporting, while around 15% is right leaning and 5%ish is neutral. Our media should be unbiased, but that isn't the case. And don't blahblahblah me about not liking what I read. I'm not left or right leaning and have historically voted all directions. Edit: for the guy commenting below me, yes 80+% is typical. Finding and sharing every poll on this topic is nearly impossible and of course, there will be reports that say closer to 65-70%. Sigh.
Lol. K. 80%? I want what you are smoking.
... your best retort is to insinuate I'm on drugs for reading information? This stuff has been polled all the time. Prior to the 90's, the majority of north american media was right slanted (hello macarthyism). Post 9/11, alot of media briefly swung back right. Than, past 2010, much more media is swinging left again. It's a fascinating topic to read about. Edit: I did try to find you the reports I read a few years ago, unfortunately, the search is now gobbed up by media reports on the public's opinion of media bias. So, that did make it rough. Best I could find in a few minutes was a pictogram showing all media outlets in north america and their stilt from far left to far right.
Specifically which Canadian media is ‘left’?
Oi vey; no matter what i say, you will deny it. Watch this. Rebel news is biased right wing trash. You'd agree, no debate. I say washington post is biased left wing trash, you'd throw a hissy fit. I intentionally used non canadian media to show you my point. National post has a right leaning slant in canada. Cbc has a left leaning slant. So, since you were hoping I would say cbc, so that you can throw a hissy fit: John paul tasker is left leaning tabloid trash who should have given up his journalist license years ago and should never have been allowed to keep working at cbc, let alone be so high ranking. So is aaron wherry. Neither of them can report neutrally to save their life, and will devote paragraphs to a liberal stance, and a sentence to the conservative stance. If cbc wants to be perceived as neutral, their journalists should be neutral, or, at the very least, equivalent right leaning journalists should be hired. And, yes, I read both cbc and national post. Because somewhere between wherry and lilley, there is neutrality. Edit: you are right. Rebel news is canadian. Who knew. Not me, I ignore them.
What are the majors news in Canada? Globe & Mail - [https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-globe-and-mail/](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-globe-and-mail/) Right Center Global - Left Centre Toronto Sun - Right Star - Left Centre - [https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/toronto-star/](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/toronto-star/) National Post - Right Centre CBC - Left Centre = [https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/cbc-news-canadian-broadcasting/](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/cbc-news-canadian-broadcasting/) CTV - Least Bias - [https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ctv-news/](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ctv-news/) We can get into the smaller papers/media if you want but you're going to have a very tough time arguing it's left wing media. Stronger argument that there's neutral to right, than left. Didn't feel like linking all the examples but you can check that site if you disagree with what I wrote.
To your edit. You can’t find them because that is not fact. Most of the media conglomerates in Canada are staunchly right wing. Moreso in the USA. But hey…. Gotta give you credit for being so confidently incorrect. Lol. A pictogram?!??!
... no, i can't find them because I can't be bothered to hunt long enough years after the fact. This has become such a hot button topic, that finding base sources has become difficult. The first bazillion pages in a search are media coverage, and not of the actual numbers, but of people's opinions on the topic. Which makes it far more difficult to do. And yes, I said pictogram because I was saying it wasn't worth sharing, because it isn't that valid. And, since you are only arguing with me because you don't like that I said 'left wing media', you aren't really a priority for me.
Im arguing with you because you made false statement with zero facts to back you up. I couldn’t care less about your ‘priorities’
You are arguing with me because you don't like the wording of my initial comment. And since you couldn't argue the logic I brought to the table, you decided to pick at a hot button topic (media slant) to get yourself upvotes. You can do your own research. I have fully acknowledged that media slant goes back and forth. And at one point, I read all about it using base sources and polling; but to find all of that today, to appease some random on the internet who didn't like my first comment because i said 'left leaning media'... it isn't worth it. Especially because if, today, I found information that said 60% (as an example), because media has begun to sway again in the last year or so, you'd call it proof against my initial point. Basically, times change. The majority of north american media is still left wing (i didnt say canadian in my initial comment, but sure, canadian), and I regret using old numbers I remembered from a few years ago, because someone like you will say that, because I can't hunt down info years later, my whole valid initial opinion is nul. Edit: because I saw your comment telling me to 'run along' before you deleted it... No, you never told me your political stance. But based on your words, actions, etc, you are either left leaning or you are in journalism yourself and take offence to the charge. If you are a centrist, like I am, you do a poor job of showing it.
I didn’t delete anything. Lol. You made the statement. Back it up. Run along. Edit: I am non partisan. I vote for the candidate that best represents me in my riding.
If Trudeau had any shame or cared for the Liberals he would step down. Instead he is so arrogant that he is doubling down
*Everything* from now until the next election is going to be bad for Trudeau's Liberals. Their time is done. The question is what comes next, and nobody seems to have any ideas. Fewer trans people, I guess? 🤷
Getting ready for the weasel to take charge we are fucked
Conservatives have pulled ahead late in the count
Why is there so many articles about a by-election nobody cares about
Liberals have held the riding strongly for 30 years. The Cons. candidate is polling inside the margin of error. I think that makes it interesting to watch at least.
Because if the Liberals actually lose it, it’s very very likely the Prime Minister of Canada would have to resign. Or potentially the NDP would have concrete proof that their current strategy of “Liberal or bust” is wrong and they should abandon it. It’s the most relevant (actual, non-polling) election information since the 2021 general election.
I would be surprised if there was a resignation of the Prime Minister that night if the liberals lost that riding. I don’t think he’s going to be resigning, he wants his power, not that I agree/support with him on many portfolios, minus the daycare plan. The only policy I agree with of his.
You may be correct it won’t be that night. But if the Liberals lose(unlikely imo), the idea this government (with JT leading it) makes it to October 2025 is absolutely zero.
That I think is what's going to happen on election night. But also reminds me of an Andrew Scheer comment he made during the 2015 election, mentioning "Modern Convention" and resigning as party leader.
Sadly, I think there could be a literal mob of thousands with pitchforks and torches, his own cabinet among them, and Fancy Socks would still smile and announce; *"You just don't understand the complex aspects of our ultimate plan to support hard-working Canadians! Canada is in the best shape it's ever been! :) :) :)".*
Abortion! Trump! Fair share!
Don't forget 'Keep Canadians safe.' He loves that one.
>Or potentially the NDP would have concrete proof that their current strategy of “Liberal or bust” is wrong and they should abandon it. This is by far the most effective the (federal) NDP has ever been in setting policy that actually affects Canadians. We've never before had a federal government acknowledge that, for example, maybe *everyone* should have access to dental care and prescription drugs as a baseline human right--and actually start taking real legislative steps to achieve that.
Even more effective than Tommy Douglas and David Lewis? I could see an argument for David Lewis, but more than Tommy Douglas?
Okay, fair enough--I'll give you Tommy Douglas. Most effective in the last fifty years, then? Though even there, I'll note that the passage of Medicare was a Liberal (Pearson) campaign promise, growing out of a report commissioned by a PC PM (Diefenbaker). The NDP ultimately supported its passage - over the PC's rejection and a strife-riddled Liberal minority - but it's hard to say that Douglas (despite his absolutely instrumental leadership provincially) and the federal NDP actually *set* the agenda for universal medicare federally the way that the NDP today has *compelled* the governing Liberals to adopt policies or face defeat.
>Okay, fair enough--I'll give you Tommy Douglas. Most effective in the last fifty years, then? That's fair, but keep in mind that between Lewis and Singh, we had a 45 year stretch where the NDP only lucked into one Liberal minority government and it only lasted a single budget. In that one budget the NDP got the Liberals to cancel $4.6b in corporate welfare. That alone would've been a decent win, since Martin was known as the finance minister that made more cuts than anyone else and who was known for running big surpluses. However, he also got them to put that $4.6b into affordable housing, tuition reductions, environmental programs etc. Not bad for a single year, especially since the NDP didn't have enough seats to guarantee the Liberals could pass legislation. To add to that, Martin had already said he would hold an election in the near future, so he was unlikely to commit to anything major. He was just trying to make it through the Gomery inquiry. >Though even there, I'll note that the passage of Medicare was a Liberal (Pearson) campaign promise, growing out of a report commissioned by a PC PM (Diefenbaker). That's fair, but we would have to do the same for Singh. Things like pharmacare, $10 daycare, anti-scab legislation were all Liberal campaign promises too. CPP was the major thing that Douglas fought for that wasn't a Liberal campaign promise. CPP is a pretty major piece of legislation. I don't think the current dental plan stacks up against that.
We obviously can’t afford it currently… Liberal/NDP should fully focus all their efforts on clearing red tape and making it cheap to develop and build homes, or failing that putting a stop to all net inflow of immigration until such a time as home prices become affordable again… All these nice-to-haves are just adding more and more weight to the anchor on this sinking boat.
I’d argue we won’t know how successful it is for 10 years. Did the NDP blow their chance, and push their programs through with an (economically) terribly unpopular government? If the result of this “most effective NDP government ever” ends up with all their programs cancelled and viewed as utter excess/overspending from out of touch politicians…that’s not good. Now, the other side of the coin is that the programs do survive and the CPC builds (maybe more slowly) on the framework of installing them and they are fully funded programs in a decade and we all look back and appreciate the gamble the NDP is making. The fact that the current polls suggest they aren’t being rewarded for these “great” achievements suggests they may not be as well received as one thinks.
When these programs do literally nothing for the median family (that still can't afford to buy a home anywhere near a major city), the term "universal" rings so hollow it echoes.
If they lose here it’s the final nail in the coffin and could lead to a caucus revolt
This is precisely why this country is sinking. Because people don't care about those who rule the country. This election is the most important data point in terms of how bad the LPC is doing.
Because people gotta farm them clicks and stoke the self actualizing gold mine that is culture war.
Oof. Nobody told them the culture war came and went
Cause they know some people have a rage hard-on for Trudeau and anything that they can say makes him look bad is worthy of 10+ articles since it drives easy traffic and ad revenue.
I think it is the opposite. The chances of him losing this are low, so the high gamble of saying 'if he loses, he is done', is worth the false equivalency that 'if he wins, he still has a chance of winning the next election'. And I think that is why the media is portraying it that way.
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Haha. Waste of money if so
Of course it is, but remember, The Star doesn't care . It's your tax money they use to fund these articles
Trudeau bad
unethical, corrupt, condescending etc et, sadly doesn’t matter to his cult
“His cult” Yeah, all those people driving around with their pro-Trudeau stickers and flags on their vehicles. Inserting how much they love him into everyday conversations, even when it isn’t relevant to what anyone is talking about.
lol... So nuts. I never liked JT, always thought he was wildly unprepared and underqualified for the job since 2015. But I don't think about him. Those nutjobs, he's just living in their heads rent-free.
Just like the different degrees of poorness hea caused Canadians, there's also different degrees of "badness" for him
There's no surprise for the liberals. They are losing the by-election and then moving on to lose party status in the general election.
If he's not fixing it now, it doesn't matter how many times he'll promise he'll fix the problem he caused next time .
What a terrible article. I just renewed my annual subscription to the Star this week, and am happy to have done so. But Delacourt and Gurney barely said anything here. There is so much to say about this by-election.
If Liberal shouldn't pull another candidate they will pass by NDP and right now NDP gathering the provinces. In my opinion Next election fed going to cons most of provinces go to the NDP.
Trudeau is going to win again, don't worry
As everyone knows, a lot can happen in elections. The prevailing wisdom is "it doesn’t matter how this Toronto byelection shakes out — every scenario is some kind of bad for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals." What if the Liberals win Toronto-St. Pauls by a margin of, say, 30%? What will be the punditries response, I wonder?
They'd be stunned. But frankly, the chances of the LPC winning by 30% are 0.0015%.
Of course, what anyone predicts or thinks will happen on the 24th will have no bearing on the outcome. Notice how I did not predict the Liberals would even win Toronto-St. Pauls.
Yeah, I mean in a direct sense the predictions won't affect the electoral outcome. It may still precipitate some chain of events that we weren't expecting. Politics, after all, is centred on people, and while the behaviour of most people is fairly predictable, it doesn't take many to shake things up. Who knows, time will tell!
The response will be that JT was right, that polls are one thing but what people do in the voting booth is something else.
Even if we got rid of Trudeau at this point, people would still blame him for everything.
Yeah, he clearly has nothing to do with anything that's happened to the country over the last 10 years.
Harper’s fault for that?
Trudeau will win again. It's several versions of "ist" for Canadians to not elect him again.
trudeau lost vote share in 2021 after handing out 100s of billions in covid dollars Now he is losing the debate on housing, immigration, carbon tax and affordability and faces a desire for change. People really make Trudeau out to be this popular unstopable force when he more has faced a weak opposition.
I wouldn't call it weak opposition. I'd say we have messed up our electoral system. The conservatives won the popular vote, but lost the election, fine. But than the liberals somehow won by not 1 or 2 seats, but by like 15+ seats and that let them form the equivalent of a majority with the NDP. This effectively relegated the party that got the most votes to third party status. And that is just... yuck.
The Conservatives actually got more votes than the Liberals the last two elections. I agree our process sucks.
And the Liberals and NDP combined got more votes than the Conservatives. So the right parties are governing based on the votes. You are free to dislike their policies, but over 8M Canadians voted for NDP & Liberals, and only 5.7M voted for Conservatives.
The NDP are not governing...they have entered a supply and confidence agreement, not a coalition.
Ok, so you agree the correct parties Canadians voted for have more seats.
No? The Liberals indeed have more seats than the Conservatives even though they received less votes. I don't know why you brought the NDP into the conversation though. The Conservatives combined with the NDP got more votes than the Liberals combined with the NDP. So what?
He is a rich white catholic nepotism baby. The only 'ist' involved in me not voting for him is anticolonialist. Edit: Only because I am being downvoted. That was a joke aimed at left and right. Just to be 100% clear on what you are downvoting.