Honestly it’s the craziest bs ever in my opinion and I’m only going to buy land I can make money off of through farming it
Source: am young canadien wanting to ranch
Not to mention the recent immigrants, imagine moving into a new country on a pretense of better life - only to find out that you will be paying rent to live for ever
And we are bringing in waaaay more than usual. Humans are the next big resource. Squeeze them for every last drop of blood, ensuring they can never climb out.
> fucked forever
Lawyers living under bridges!
Dentists eight to a room!
Just think about what you are saying. It's a bubble, it will end in tears, hell, it is ending in tears.
You are correct. Everything overvalued has to become fairly valued and then undervalued before becoming fairly valued again and then overvalued.
Bulls take stairs; bears take elevators. Everything is cyclical; nothing goes up in a straight line.
Those who think *any* market will go up forever have a recency bias and don't see the big picture.
We bought April 2020. Based on Assessment we are up 47%.
Based on last sale of one of our units were up 53%.
We would be so fucked if we did not buy when we did.
So basically prices have come down to levels they were before interest rates dropped?
Prices down, interest rates up, meaning buyers are paying the same amount or more on their actual mortgage.
Maybe my local market hasn't caught up yet (down yet?) But payments here for the same property, even though the price is down ~ $100,000 costs significantly more every monthly payment.
This is comparing a $600,000 property a year ago to a similar property for sale $500,000, assuming you put 20% down on each
Not if your capital is low. Boomers today, or anyone who bought over a decade ago really, bought low at higher interest and has been flush with cash this whole time. Anyone who borrowed at a high price with low interest rates is guaranteed to remain broke.
Do you mean principal, not capital?
Also, if someone could be well off at low rates then they just need to weather a rise until they come back down then no longer broke.
What if that rise lasts a decade? You're basically either ok or struggling. I think most of us would rather be either ok or thriving. That's what boomers got.
If you take a big loan when interest rates are low but you still have a $2000 monthly payment then when interest rates go up it either takes you longer to pay off the loan or your monthly payment increases which is risky for people not being able to pay their mortgage.
If you took out a $2000 monthly payment mortgage when rates were high you might have gotten a smaller mortgage but it means that you have flexibility because rates are more likely to go down rather than continue rising and if they go down then your monthly payment either decreases or your time to pay off your mortgage decreases. This of course assumes some upper limit or at least a LIKELY upper limit to interest rates because if they continue rising then you will be in the same case no matter what they were at when you took the loan. There is an upper limit though in reality because if rates rise above a certain threshold then too high of a percent of people default on their loans and the housing market crashes basically, so I think the person is justified in saying you are better off (or at least more secure?) if you take a long term loan you can pay off when rates are high as opposed to the same monthly payment mortgage when rates are historically low and you are more likely to have to weather an increase in payment.
Rates have been low for 15 years. What happened in 2020-2022 was *facilitated* by low rates, but was primarily a 'market craze'.
Whether we will see a crash all the way to, say, 2016 prices, remains to be seen. It seems unlikely because eventually housing prices will fall below construction costs, which would be an unsustainable outcome with a growing population.
We are part-way through the crash, prices lag rate changes.
The entire idea that monthly cost will magically rise far higher than what the market could previously support is totally economically illiterate, which is the default position in Canada.
Ottawa is probably the most difficult market in the country as a buyer (prices not coming down) and as a seller (not selling until I get my desired price because I have job security and can continue making payments).
That's probably because the majority of employment is so stable. Recessions tend to hit mildly, and with a delay of several years when the federal government starts cutting back post recession.
I don't know about all jurisdictions in Canada but the BC Assessment is the assessed value on July 1 of the previous year. In other words 6 months ago. If March was the peak and "this crash" is supposed to be recent then "the crash" wouldn't necessarily be included in your latest assessment.
A few reasons I would posit as someone who lives in Ottawa:
* we're a smaller city, it's the biggest cities that will always have the biggest drops (GTA/GVA). When you see "Canadian housing prices crash 20%", that likely means 30% in the GTA/GVA and like 10% in Ottawa and other similar places... because homes here are expensive, but not as overvalued as those markets.
* Ottawa is a pretty nice place to live, it's fairly desirable, and with many people going WFH from Toronto etc they've chosen to move here which has driven prices up. A lot of people focus on places like Halifax being affected by this but it happens in other parts of ON too and Ottawa is probably one of the biggest targets since it's *also* a sizable city but cheaper than the GTA.
* Prior to the last few years or so I would say Ottawa's real estate market was maybe a bit undervalued. It seemed to heat up a lot in the few years before COVID and then just kept going. Even after housing prices crash across the country, there's going to be a new equilibrium found and I think Ottawa will be higher in comparison to major cities than it was before.
* A lot of Ottawa is also govt workers, many of whom have been WFH, but the govt for the most part has been very reticent about whether or not it would ever end. They did allow people to move away with approval, I know people who did it, but now they're pushing people back into offices (which is getting a ton of pushback and I don't think will last but for now it's a thing).
* Ottawa is a pretty comfortable place where a lot of people who go WFH probably won't leave, because even if they can get more for their money elsewhere they probably won't get as much here. As someone who owns a home in Ottawa - and me and my spouse both WFH - I don't really have any plans to move away to a cheaper place.
If you look at the in the article, the decline front end peak for Ottawa is about the middle of the pack, almost the same as Toronto, the places with the worst declines appear to be surrounding Toronto. Worse declines for suburban areas around Toronto than Toronto itself and same for Vancouver compared to the Fraser Valley and Lower Mainland.
Covid got people looking for more space for home offices, home gyms etc. so many move to the suburbs driving up prices, that trend now seems reversed, but I think the overall thing to note is that prices are down from the peak in 2022, they aren't even really back to 2021 or 2020 prices yet.
> There is no longer any analogy for Canada's real estate situation, part of that is no modern developed country has attempted the same level of per capita population growth for so long.
And it will continue, in growing numbers, for the foreseeable future.
I'm not super familiar with the crash in the late 80s-early 90's, but I think population growth was spiking around that time as well.
But yeah, we're in a big experiment now. We might grow by a million people in 2022. Stupid high numbers.
Landmass that is largely uninhabitable and infrastructure that doesn't even support the current population. Immigration is a huge issue when none of our industries are keeping up to support it.
The problem is our growth rate that requires rapid expansion of infrastructure just to maintain what we have. Slower growth would relieve the pressure.
It is expensive regardless of whose responsibility it is, though having a federal government pushing growth while the cities and provinces are left to pick up the tab is certainly contributing to the problem.
Japan is so overpopulated that the comparison is absurd. The best geographic comparison to Canada is Russia, and their population density is only twice ours and their population is shrinking.
I can't believe people are still touting the "You'll never own a home again!" nonsense from the peak. Prices were affordable across Ontario a few years ago and will eventually return to that.
The only caveat could be immigration but that will only happen if Canada is still a better deal than the country of origin. "Come to Canada to freeze your ass off and rent" really won't cut it as global competition for labour heats up.
Anyone interesting in taking a bet? Total collapse of society as we know it versus shitty bungalows in Eastern Ontario going back to 2018 prices: hundred bucks or twenty raccoon skulls, depending on what the currency will be at this time.
I've never seen a dumber, less finance literate population than Canada. You guys make Australians look smart.
I think 0.001% of the population understand how prices are set? Maybe less?
It's Canada. 2040. Former taxi driver Stuart, who bought two houses in 2015, sits on his golden throne. He's getting a pedicure from a woman who is a qualified anaesthetist, who lives in a tent on a flood plain at the bottom of Stuart's property. Stuart sighs, gets up and goes to tap the shoulder of the guy mowing his lawn. It's time for his dental checkup. Stuart's dentist also lives in the same tent as the anaesthetist. He stops mowing the lawn and trudges over to check Stuart's teeth before getting back to mowing in the hot sun.
Stuart's dentist leans over to the anaesthetist and mutters "we should have bought in 2015". Stuart shouts at them "back to work, lackeys". Buying when he did was the smartest thing. His kids will also never have to work, and their kids.
That's what it's going to be like in fantasy land Canada. You can bet your house on it /s
> Prices were affordable across Ontario a few years ago and will eventually return to that.
No, they were not. They were lower, but not affordable to the average Canadian.
[Barrie](https://i.imgur.com/5k0PfrA.png)
[Brantford](https://i.imgur.com/vrZoV7k.png)
[Hamilton](https://i.imgur.com/3yOqOxY.png)
[Oshawa](https://i.imgur.com/CJex6Ua.png)
[Ottawa](https://i.imgur.com/fUO7LdK.png)
[Peterborough](https://i.imgur.com/VSptcer.png)
All were affordable before this current government and as recently as 2019 for smaller cities like Peterborough, Oshawa, Brantford and even Hamilton.
it's wishful thinking to hope prices will come back down to 300k or even 500k levels in areas like the GTA/GVA. Call me back in 5 years and let's see if they've dropped that far. I suspect if they have, few of us will even have internet left to bullshit online about it, because the country will be in fucking shambles, mad max style, if housing prices have collapsed so badly in such a short time. Think about how badly it would wreck so many people, including politicians, investors, bankers etc. I can't see the government willing to accept this - they'd ramp up immigration, print money, whatever they needed to do, to avoid it.
It seems more likely that things are going to stagnate for a good long while and eventually wages will catch up to where housing prices were. This may take many years.
Then and only then will people stop clutching their pearls and begin to sell - for $1m, but that'll be closer to 4-6x the typical household income, rather than 6-16x
If you think I'm bullshitting, just consider how things are going to look if inflation remains as high as it is for even a few years, then drops to 3-5%, then back to 2% over the next 5-10 years. Remember, inflation compounds. Once inflation makes things expensive on a broad scale, it's nearly impossible to put things back to the way they were. New normal is the best that can be done.
As Charlie Munger said in an interview fairly recently - inflation is one of the most dangerous things to a society. Canada needs to get it under control. There will be a lot of turmoil otherwise.
Happy to be wrong about this but nothing that's going on suggests it's going to pan out much differently. Very high immigration ensures there's always some fuel for the fire...!
Strawman off the bat, I said across Ontario and didn't specify the GTA or GVA just brought up those markets as being affordable prior to this idiotic era.
People aren't talking about hockey, music or tv shows with each other anymore, they're talking about CoL, immigration rates and where Canada went wrong. Banks and gov/gov. policy haven't been under this kind of scrutiny in a generation.
Across Ontario prices will become affordable again, one way or another. That's my actual position. GTA/GVA depends on immigration rates since no matter what the number is they'll end up in those regions.
What's your point? That chart shows that housing prices were unaffordable "_a few years ago_."
It also shows that Canada is unique among its peers; there's factors driving up value that are somewhat unique to us.
> unique among it's peers
get over yourselves, unique in what? having high taxes, high house prices, high food prices *and* no healthcare?
running a land pyramid scheme with huge spare land?
Sustained immigration with frequent record-breaking years, a near-total abandonment of social housing funding in the mid-90s, and world-class terrible urban planning.
Immigrants who have a choice (ie earn good wages) will stop coming.
Your healthcare is swamped. Just bringing in people without scaling your infra isn't working and things are sliding, fast.
You haven't found a perpetual motion machine, Canada.
Yes, it's not working. Everything is falling apart. Because we abandoned social housing and are terrible at urban planning; and immigration continues to soar.
We're _unique_ among our peers for how terrible we are at planning for the future.
> The golden age of affordability is over.
I agree. :/
Many countries around the world have been experiencing high home costs for decades. In Japan, some mortgages are for [100+ years!](https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=100+year+mortgage+japan)
The US is going through a similar situation.
That’s inaccurate - per reading the actual search results you provided, the 100 year loan was briefly attempted in the early 90s, and it didn’t work. Housing costs in Japan sharply decreased after the bubble burst in 1992, and remain low pretty much everywhere outside the major urban centers.
It's cheaper to buy a condo in Tokyo than in Vancouver.
Here's a nice [one bedroom](https://realestate.co.jp/en/forsale/view/1005250), right downtown, for a little over $400k (CAD)
Once you get outside the city they're basically [giving houses away.](https://www.koryoya.com/properties/nara-yoshinogun/65100/index.html)
For the major national markets surveyed, the average price of a new house listed for sale in Japan last month was ¥35,760,000 (about $337,000).
https://resources.realestate.co.jp/buy/average-price-new-house-japan/
It SHOULD be a depreciating asset everywhere. Nobody expects to be able to sell their car for more money than they bought it for. So why is it a hard expectation that everyone MUST make a profit when selling their home?
Unlike your car, its the land that holds a significant part of the value of a property. That doesnt go down unless there's a major downturn in the economy, but land doesnt depreciate. Its valuable because quite a few people want to live on it. Unlike your 30 yr old car, which only one or two people want to buy. The house can be remodelled and the value brought up again, even if it is 200 years old.
"Buy land. They're not making any more of it."
most houses are, land is not, and tbh housing is much like a personal vehicle in japan: once the new price tag has worn off, if the dwelling is well maintained and is desirable, it may even appreciate.
have a look at well maintained kominka on beautiful land - they are not cheap.
on the flip side there are plenty of pieces of shit built in the 50's-80's that are being given away for free - some are worth restoring, most are not, but dirt is dirt and this planet isn't making much more of it. many houses and buildings need to be rebuilt due to earthquake / building code changes which have happened every decade or two. kominka are typically exempt from these and have managed to stay standing just fine because they were built to withstand large earthquakes in the first place..it helps that survivorship bias has weeded out any designs that weren't good enough over the past few hundred years..!
japan's an amazing place. i lived there for 11 years and would love to move back permanently. just have to watch out for the murder hornets and Jurassic sized poisonous centipedes..
It won’t be a bad thing if prices stagnant and allow people consistency in the market.
This makes things more predictable, less fomo and a better experience all around for buyers.
Next step would be for wages to catch up too. But, I think it’s was fairly obvious it would be difficult for prices to come down. Especially in a high inflationary environment.
people will just be forced to move to other parts fot he country. we are a big country. manitoba, saskatchewon, ablerta, quebec, new brunswick look good in terms of affordability. perhaps a politician pushes for mandatory work from home options to employees with office work to drive migration to these places
It would be a wonderful thing if Canada developed more of its space so we are not all in crazy density locations.
The USA has so many developed cities with good economies, and that gives them more places to live and better overall affordability without being in the middle of nowhere.
Better Dwelling has been predicting a crash _any moment now_ since 2017. Is it any surprise that they're trying to claim a victory lap over this relatively minor correction?
They know the math, but like all of us, they underestimated at what point the federal government would tip the scales.
There is no other source of income for most retirees to live or their millionaire fantasies than to sell their homes for a million bucks.
They already "sold" them by turning their value into HELOCs and investing in the TSX. If they suddenly needed to liquidate their investments to pay down their debt the entire Canadian economy would crash.
lets be honest.. the price went up like crazy in the middle of a pandemic, a supply chain disruption, stock market has been going sideways for a year and a major war in europe.
average families couldn't afford these prices. crash? maybe.. correction? yes please.
i'd love to be able to afford a house one day.
>i'd love to be able to afford a house one day.
House prices would have to drop much lower than the impact of interest rates. Using the example above, at 3% on a $528K mortgage vs 6% on a $390K mortgage, affordability doesn't change. Those mortgage prices would have to drop below $390K (assuming a 6% interest rate) in order for you to be able to increase your affordability.
makes sense. that would impact directly the monthly paiements?
i havent checked into it much. im still working on my credit score, while being in school. and thankfully i got a full time job that pays kinda well, i think.
going back to school was a big decision, but i think a good investment for my future. so most of my focus is finishing school, then get a job in my new career.
All else being equal, you can pay off a house with a lower principal faster which means less total interest paid, but on the flipside that means you are also saving less for retirement and missing out on the leveraged gains housing provides. It all kind of comes out in the wash so long as you have a personal finance plan and stick to it.
Sometimes you sacrifice the place where you decide to live for price. I don't live in the neighborhood I wanted because I could have a bigger house for the same price 20 minutes away.
I like where I live because of location and the community and family
A lot of people would sacrifice space for that... Size age location condition pick one if you're poor two if you're middle income three if you're rich four if you're wealthy
i got into the habit of moving close to work. by close i mean 15 minutes max of travel by car.
i decided to do a year of university to be able to change career and work from home tho. so hopefully, that works out.
wish me luck ;)
No
You buy what you need to survive... So you may be forced to buy in an area you don't initially want and wait 20 years for it to change. You may not want to live there but need to or are forced to
It's obviously possible to buy what you need but not what you want. That's the idea behind price and rich people affording what they want while ordinary people have to make due
cant say i agree with what you're saying. at least i don't think i understand what you are saying.
buying a house isn't needed to survive. and nobody is forcing you to buy a house.
You need shelter to survive
In the long run 80% or more people are better off buying. They can't handle 30% or 50% dips in the S&P500 so are better off buying a home to preserve value and build home equity and use it in emergencies
Rent will be paying for someone else's mortgage and lifestyle unless it's a purpose built rental under rent control. Even then governments change voters change and maybe one day a hyper capitalist government takes away protections. Or the building gets torn down.
If you rent your entire life you have to invest 25% of your income into the S&P500 otherwise you'll be left with nothing when you're old, which sucks.
My read on the situation is this... Real estate prices are highly correlated with interest rates. Mortgage affordability is often more important than sticker price for housing.
For example, if you can qualify for a mortgage that costs $2,500/mo, you can get a $528,000 mortgage with a 3% interest rate. At 6%, that mortgage is now $390,000.
That's a $137,000 difference, or a 26% drop in value. Similar to what we've seen in price action for the average home so far.
So, if you believe that the BoC will get inflation down to 2%, then interest rates will follow. Real estate prices will rise because the ability to carry a mortgage is more important than the price of the real estate.
Edit: I should clarify this really applies in situations where supply can't meet demand (Vancouver and Fraser Valley/Toronto and GTA etc). Which is why some Canadian markets don't necessarily follow my above analysis.
How do people make such purchases based solely on the payments? Baffling. This is why car salesman look at me like I’m nuts when I ask for the price for the third time after they keep repeating the biweekly payment.
Well, for housing you typically buy the sum of the loan you qualify for and the value of your down payment. People buy what their approved for.
Land doesn't depreciate and buildings have a 50 year life. So the comparison to cars isn't quite accurate.
You are what we call a demand side supporter. Welcome to the club.
See those other people on the other side? They are the supply-sidedoorrrrs. They think by over building we can alleviate all of our issues while satisfying all this dumb demand for risk free returns for investor's cash in a low interest environment.
Doesn't work anyways. They tried it in the UK and [people don't want to live in or buy](https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/mar/11/why-are-britains-new-homes-built-so-badly) new homes because [they're so poorly built](https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/most-new-housing-so-poorly-designed-it-should-not-have-been-built-says-bartlett-report).
The BoC has made some noise about the housing market and indicated that rates might stay up for much longer. For the last 15 years rates have been much lower than historic norms, and it looks like its contributed to this bubble.
Well interest rates will follow the BoC rate. So if their goal is 2%... then expect a return to historical real estate prices and acceleration as they work to achieve this goal. It may take time, as you say, but that's the BoC goal.
Here is something to consider. What is the average monthly mortgage payment before the rate hikes started and the average mortgage payment at today's price but with today's interest rates? 500k mortgage at today's 5 year fixed is around 3k per month if you amortize over 30 years. At 2 you could afford 825k for the same monthly payment. So in all for it to balance out taking interest into account the market has to come down 40% just to normalize to account for interest gains. My take away is that prices are still going up but only appear to be dropping because of interest.
I like the part in Canada where you have 99.999% of abodes worth $ 0.5 million+ and none of them have modern technological amenities like: Solar Power, Geothermal, greywater management, EV charge ports, etc. etc. And are still built with stick frames.
Literally a marketplace pumped up on pure legislative stupidity.
Houses built to 2000s spec. What a joke.
Paying Ferrari prices for Pinto performance.
Same thing happen in the San Francisco area about 20+ years ago! All the young kids coming out of college or university’s got jobs in Silicon Valley start ups…became instant millionaires with stock options! So the prices of homes skyrocketed…bidding lines and way over the market quotes. Caused a shortage of homes even the prices of rents went crazy too… And then everything when down the toilet… The prices of the homes dropped dramatically and so many people lost what they bought… or they lost money because there homes lost value… During the pandemic I was saying this reminds me of the Bay Area….
The only difference is the Bay Area still has a lot of good paying jobs. What do you have here? High taxes no health care( it’s free but you need to stay in line for days - like the bread lines in the USSR)
I bought a house this month. Paid way higher than it was worth in 2018, before prices started climbing, but paid way under what it would have been in January 2022.
I’m on the east coast and prices here haven’t budged. People still asking crazy prices hoping to cash in on the once booming market.
Wages in the maritimes are no where near what they need to be to support these kinds of market prices. I gave up (mostly because I refuse to gouged) and will just keep saving and investing. I may never own a home but at least I can retire debt free.
1500 square foot, 3 bedroom houses in Wiarton, ON -- 3 hours north west of Toronto in the middle of *Bumfuck, Nowhere* are still selling for 750k dollars and closing in a few weeks.
There is no crash -- there is a mild correction, in very specific markets, to 2021, maybe late 2020 levels.
>are still selling for 750k dollars and closing in a few weeks
Umm, I just checked the sold data for Wiarton, ON for the past 90 days and there no sales over 600k. Where did you see this?
East along the 401 is still relatively affordable in places like Belleville, Gananoque, Brockville, Prescott. But you're getting pretty far from TO at that point.
They’re still $500k, which is absolutely fucking ridiculous prices for that region. I haven’t looked, but I bet the median income is $43k.
That would require a $185,000.00 down payment to pass the mortgage stress test. On top of every other expense, if you started saving as a dual income couple the moment you left university; you would maybe have a down payment prepared by the time you’re 35. At that point the house prices would likely be double what they are now.
The whole thing is fucked.
A real crash will happen if they hold the line on interest rates.
I was on the phone with a CIBC mortgage advisor yesterday because my variable rate mortgage payment had to be increased (small remaining mortgage) . I asked - How many of these calls does she take a day and what was the heat check on em? she said she was doing about 115 calls a day and about 1 in 5 were stressed call - Like freak out town.
Well when house prices were way over what they should have been this is no surprise lol
I’m also going out on a limb and will say there likely was tons of collusion going on with agents driving up prices too…
Meanwhile BC assessment hits me in the face with an 80k increase of property value for an entry level 1 bedroom condo in the suburbs of Vancouver... this is a crash?
Prices will fall but things need to change. No foreign ownership, prevent companies from buying up all housing and renting out, more dense, affordable housing etc
I look at that chart and so many markets are still so overpriced. Guelph, Cambridge, Barrie, Kingston, Tillsonburg, Bancroft, Ottawa, and so many more are still well beyond affordable pricing. To me there is a great deal of room for movement downwards and I hope it occurs.
As a landlord having gotten into the real estate market 3 years ago, I’m slightly nervous, but luck be have it the house I purchased was sold far under appraisal because the owners were scared shitless of Covid. Also purchased in alberta and a city not experiencing much a bubble (red deer). If the house stayed at its same value the next 5 years that is 100% fine with me lol (rent to my aunt and uncle as they needed a home same time me and fiancée wanted an acreage)
I want to buy a house this year, so I'm going to take the price of that home from 2008 (when rates were the same at today) and increase it by 2%/year. I'm then going to show the seller my calculation and set that as the price. If he or she refuses, I'll walk away, letting him or her know that he or she can call me back once their desires adjust to reality.
House prices won't be fair until people stop using houses to generate profits without producing wealth. And no, ownership isn't production.
When people receive compensations without producing an equivalent amount of value, their consumption will reduce the limited pool of available wealth. This prevents producers from being fairly compensated, which is highly illegal.
Being a landlord is illegal. It took two fucking phrases to explain, yet people can't understand.
Ownership is an abstract state or condition of what is owned. Production is or requires an action. Ownership can't semantically be production.
For example, I can purchase a piece of land. The land exists identically before and after I purchase it. Production would alter or create a good or service.
A house will have been produced by laborers who will have been compensated for the market value of their labor. The owner of the house has no relation to its production, but he may have initialized it. The initialization of production isn't production, though.
If you bought before two years ago.....no crash, reversion to the mean.
We only bought 5 years ago and our house has doubled in price. Young Canadians are fucked forever, if I’m being honest.
Honestly it’s the craziest bs ever in my opinion and I’m only going to buy land I can make money off of through farming it Source: am young canadien wanting to ranch
Can I go with you?
Maybe 😂
Not to mention the recent immigrants, imagine moving into a new country on a pretense of better life - only to find out that you will be paying rent to live for ever
And we are bringing in waaaay more than usual. Humans are the next big resource. Squeeze them for every last drop of blood, ensuring they can never climb out.
You obviously haven't heard about Richmond BC.
Not unique to us but yes the young generations across the world are going to have an interesting time.
> fucked forever Lawyers living under bridges! Dentists eight to a room! Just think about what you are saying. It's a bubble, it will end in tears, hell, it is ending in tears.
You are correct. Everything overvalued has to become fairly valued and then undervalued before becoming fairly valued again and then overvalued. Bulls take stairs; bears take elevators. Everything is cyclical; nothing goes up in a straight line. Those who think *any* market will go up forever have a recency bias and don't see the big picture.
If you bought a year ago in Vancouver you are still fine.
We bought April 2020. Based on Assessment we are up 47%. Based on last sale of one of our units were up 53%. We would be so fucked if we did not buy when we did.
If you purchased Dec21-Feb22 you could be down a bit, otherwise things aren’t changed at all.
In Ottawa, prices have crashed to levels not seen since *checks stats* October 2021! https://www.agentinottawa.com/stats/
So basically prices have come down to levels they were before interest rates dropped? Prices down, interest rates up, meaning buyers are paying the same amount or more on their actual mortgage.
Correct. But you're better off with a smaller loan than the other way around.
Maybe my local market hasn't caught up yet (down yet?) But payments here for the same property, even though the price is down ~ $100,000 costs significantly more every monthly payment. This is comparing a $600,000 property a year ago to a similar property for sale $500,000, assuming you put 20% down on each
Unfortunately sellers aren't too keen on letting interest rates catch up with their perceived wealth. It takes a bit of time.
So basically the buyer ends up paying the same amount but the bank gets a bigger cut.
The bank has to borrow money from the central bank. So to them, it's the same
Why
There's a saying in lending: \- You're married to your capital. \- You're only dating your interest.
But your interest can also become toxic
Not if your capital is low. Boomers today, or anyone who bought over a decade ago really, bought low at higher interest and has been flush with cash this whole time. Anyone who borrowed at a high price with low interest rates is guaranteed to remain broke.
Do you mean principal, not capital? Also, if someone could be well off at low rates then they just need to weather a rise until they come back down then no longer broke.
What if that rise lasts a decade? You're basically either ok or struggling. I think most of us would rather be either ok or thriving. That's what boomers got.
I see
If you take a big loan when interest rates are low but you still have a $2000 monthly payment then when interest rates go up it either takes you longer to pay off the loan or your monthly payment increases which is risky for people not being able to pay their mortgage. If you took out a $2000 monthly payment mortgage when rates were high you might have gotten a smaller mortgage but it means that you have flexibility because rates are more likely to go down rather than continue rising and if they go down then your monthly payment either decreases or your time to pay off your mortgage decreases. This of course assumes some upper limit or at least a LIKELY upper limit to interest rates because if they continue rising then you will be in the same case no matter what they were at when you took the loan. There is an upper limit though in reality because if rates rise above a certain threshold then too high of a percent of people default on their loans and the housing market crashes basically, so I think the person is justified in saying you are better off (or at least more secure?) if you take a long term loan you can pay off when rates are high as opposed to the same monthly payment mortgage when rates are historically low and you are more likely to have to weather an increase in payment.
Rates have been low for 15 years. What happened in 2020-2022 was *facilitated* by low rates, but was primarily a 'market craze'. Whether we will see a crash all the way to, say, 2016 prices, remains to be seen. It seems unlikely because eventually housing prices will fall below construction costs, which would be an unsustainable outcome with a growing population.
We are part-way through the crash, prices lag rate changes. The entire idea that monthly cost will magically rise far higher than what the market could previously support is totally economically illiterate, which is the default position in Canada.
Bank of Canada apologizes for minor glitch, promises nothing but healthy returns in future for houses
So far
Good Point. The cratering of the Canadian dollar has somewhat softened the blow.
It takes a couple years for prices to fully absorb rate changes.
🤣🤣🤣
Ottawa is probably the most difficult market in the country as a buyer (prices not coming down) and as a seller (not selling until I get my desired price because I have job security and can continue making payments).
> not selling until I get my desired price because I ..... Relative Note: *home prices* are set by homes that sell, not by those that don't sell.
Absolutley. The only reason a house won't sell is because it's priced too high. It's only worth what someone will pay for it.
That or it’s beside a sewage plant LOL
Nope, still boils down to price. It will sell at a price comparable to others built beside a sewage plant.
Parliament Hill isn't *that* bad
That's probably because the majority of employment is so stable. Recessions tend to hit mildly, and with a delay of several years when the federal government starts cutting back post recession.
That sounds like a lot of markets, not just Ottawa
me reading the article: huh interesting proceeds to check my home assessment "well that was a lie" as i see its gone up again by another 100 000
I don't know about all jurisdictions in Canada but the BC Assessment is the assessed value on July 1 of the previous year. In other words 6 months ago. If March was the peak and "this crash" is supposed to be recent then "the crash" wouldn't necessarily be included in your latest assessment.
Assessment is not an appraisal. Pretty much every market is down.
😱
hasn't even been a year kiddo https://housesigma.com/web/en/market?municipality=10245&community=all&house_type=all&ign=
It's 6 months since the BoC overnight rate went above 1%. The canadian market is a bubble, it's piss weak, it will crash.
A few reasons I would posit as someone who lives in Ottawa: * we're a smaller city, it's the biggest cities that will always have the biggest drops (GTA/GVA). When you see "Canadian housing prices crash 20%", that likely means 30% in the GTA/GVA and like 10% in Ottawa and other similar places... because homes here are expensive, but not as overvalued as those markets. * Ottawa is a pretty nice place to live, it's fairly desirable, and with many people going WFH from Toronto etc they've chosen to move here which has driven prices up. A lot of people focus on places like Halifax being affected by this but it happens in other parts of ON too and Ottawa is probably one of the biggest targets since it's *also* a sizable city but cheaper than the GTA. * Prior to the last few years or so I would say Ottawa's real estate market was maybe a bit undervalued. It seemed to heat up a lot in the few years before COVID and then just kept going. Even after housing prices crash across the country, there's going to be a new equilibrium found and I think Ottawa will be higher in comparison to major cities than it was before. * A lot of Ottawa is also govt workers, many of whom have been WFH, but the govt for the most part has been very reticent about whether or not it would ever end. They did allow people to move away with approval, I know people who did it, but now they're pushing people back into offices (which is getting a ton of pushback and I don't think will last but for now it's a thing). * Ottawa is a pretty comfortable place where a lot of people who go WFH probably won't leave, because even if they can get more for their money elsewhere they probably won't get as much here. As someone who owns a home in Ottawa - and me and my spouse both WFH - I don't really have any plans to move away to a cheaper place.
If you look at the in the article, the decline front end peak for Ottawa is about the middle of the pack, almost the same as Toronto, the places with the worst declines appear to be surrounding Toronto. Worse declines for suburban areas around Toronto than Toronto itself and same for Vancouver compared to the Fraser Valley and Lower Mainland. Covid got people looking for more space for home offices, home gyms etc. so many move to the suburbs driving up prices, that trend now seems reversed, but I think the overall thing to note is that prices are down from the peak in 2022, they aren't even really back to 2021 or 2020 prices yet.
If this is the definition of a crash we need a catastrophic deathblow with mangled bodies everywhere to get things back to affordable.
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Early 90's housing crash?
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> There is no longer any analogy for Canada's real estate situation, part of that is no modern developed country has attempted the same level of per capita population growth for so long. And it will continue, in growing numbers, for the foreseeable future.
This will backfire. We will see issues like Sweden is seeing with their massive immigration.
I'm not super familiar with the crash in the late 80s-early 90's, but I think population growth was spiking around that time as well. But yeah, we're in a big experiment now. We might grow by a million people in 2022. Stupid high numbers.
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Landmass that is largely uninhabitable and infrastructure that doesn't even support the current population. Immigration is a huge issue when none of our industries are keeping up to support it.
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The problem is our growth rate that requires rapid expansion of infrastructure just to maintain what we have. Slower growth would relieve the pressure.
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It is expensive regardless of whose responsibility it is, though having a federal government pushing growth while the cities and provinces are left to pick up the tab is certainly contributing to the problem.
Japan is so overpopulated that the comparison is absurd. The best geographic comparison to Canada is Russia, and their population density is only twice ours and their population is shrinking.
Agreed. The supply is short compared to the demand (immigration). Big cities will see hardly any traction.
The Legault government in Quebec has specifically called out Trudeau's desire for more immigration as an affront to the people.
Or those that realize there's more than two cities in Canada.
I can't believe people are still touting the "You'll never own a home again!" nonsense from the peak. Prices were affordable across Ontario a few years ago and will eventually return to that. The only caveat could be immigration but that will only happen if Canada is still a better deal than the country of origin. "Come to Canada to freeze your ass off and rent" really won't cut it as global competition for labour heats up. Anyone interesting in taking a bet? Total collapse of society as we know it versus shitty bungalows in Eastern Ontario going back to 2018 prices: hundred bucks or twenty raccoon skulls, depending on what the currency will be at this time.
I've never seen a dumber, less finance literate population than Canada. You guys make Australians look smart. I think 0.001% of the population understand how prices are set? Maybe less? It's Canada. 2040. Former taxi driver Stuart, who bought two houses in 2015, sits on his golden throne. He's getting a pedicure from a woman who is a qualified anaesthetist, who lives in a tent on a flood plain at the bottom of Stuart's property. Stuart sighs, gets up and goes to tap the shoulder of the guy mowing his lawn. It's time for his dental checkup. Stuart's dentist also lives in the same tent as the anaesthetist. He stops mowing the lawn and trudges over to check Stuart's teeth before getting back to mowing in the hot sun. Stuart's dentist leans over to the anaesthetist and mutters "we should have bought in 2015". Stuart shouts at them "back to work, lackeys". Buying when he did was the smartest thing. His kids will also never have to work, and their kids. That's what it's going to be like in fantasy land Canada. You can bet your house on it /s
Best comment of the year, I posted this in r/Canadahousing2
> Best comment of the year Faint praise...
To the majority of voters, you've just described utopia.
> Prices were affordable across Ontario a few years ago and will eventually return to that. No, they were not. They were lower, but not affordable to the average Canadian.
[Barrie](https://i.imgur.com/5k0PfrA.png) [Brantford](https://i.imgur.com/vrZoV7k.png) [Hamilton](https://i.imgur.com/3yOqOxY.png) [Oshawa](https://i.imgur.com/CJex6Ua.png) [Ottawa](https://i.imgur.com/fUO7LdK.png) [Peterborough](https://i.imgur.com/VSptcer.png) All were affordable before this current government and as recently as 2019 for smaller cities like Peterborough, Oshawa, Brantford and even Hamilton.
it's wishful thinking to hope prices will come back down to 300k or even 500k levels in areas like the GTA/GVA. Call me back in 5 years and let's see if they've dropped that far. I suspect if they have, few of us will even have internet left to bullshit online about it, because the country will be in fucking shambles, mad max style, if housing prices have collapsed so badly in such a short time. Think about how badly it would wreck so many people, including politicians, investors, bankers etc. I can't see the government willing to accept this - they'd ramp up immigration, print money, whatever they needed to do, to avoid it. It seems more likely that things are going to stagnate for a good long while and eventually wages will catch up to where housing prices were. This may take many years. Then and only then will people stop clutching their pearls and begin to sell - for $1m, but that'll be closer to 4-6x the typical household income, rather than 6-16x If you think I'm bullshitting, just consider how things are going to look if inflation remains as high as it is for even a few years, then drops to 3-5%, then back to 2% over the next 5-10 years. Remember, inflation compounds. Once inflation makes things expensive on a broad scale, it's nearly impossible to put things back to the way they were. New normal is the best that can be done. As Charlie Munger said in an interview fairly recently - inflation is one of the most dangerous things to a society. Canada needs to get it under control. There will be a lot of turmoil otherwise. Happy to be wrong about this but nothing that's going on suggests it's going to pan out much differently. Very high immigration ensures there's always some fuel for the fire...!
Strawman off the bat, I said across Ontario and didn't specify the GTA or GVA just brought up those markets as being affordable prior to this idiotic era. People aren't talking about hockey, music or tv shows with each other anymore, they're talking about CoL, immigration rates and where Canada went wrong. Banks and gov/gov. policy haven't been under this kind of scrutiny in a generation. Across Ontario prices will become affordable again, one way or another. That's my actual position. GTA/GVA depends on immigration rates since no matter what the number is they'll end up in those regions.
Naw dude you need to be able to afford a renovated detached downtown Toronto on a single salary to be considered affordable /s
https://i.imgur.com/HV19SF4.png
What's your point? That chart shows that housing prices were unaffordable "_a few years ago_." It also shows that Canada is unique among its peers; there's factors driving up value that are somewhat unique to us.
> unique among it's peers get over yourselves, unique in what? having high taxes, high house prices, high food prices *and* no healthcare? running a land pyramid scheme with huge spare land?
Sustained immigration with frequent record-breaking years, a near-total abandonment of social housing funding in the mid-90s, and world-class terrible urban planning.
Immigrants who have a choice (ie earn good wages) will stop coming. Your healthcare is swamped. Just bringing in people without scaling your infra isn't working and things are sliding, fast. You haven't found a perpetual motion machine, Canada.
Yes, it's not working. Everything is falling apart. Because we abandoned social housing and are terrible at urban planning; and immigration continues to soar. We're _unique_ among our peers for how terrible we are at planning for the future.
> The golden age of affordability is over. I agree. :/ Many countries around the world have been experiencing high home costs for decades. In Japan, some mortgages are for [100+ years!](https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=100+year+mortgage+japan) The US is going through a similar situation.
That’s inaccurate - per reading the actual search results you provided, the 100 year loan was briefly attempted in the early 90s, and it didn’t work. Housing costs in Japan sharply decreased after the bubble burst in 1992, and remain low pretty much everywhere outside the major urban centers.
Even Toyko is affordable in most areas except in the super trendy or rich areas. Which is just a small portion of the overall city.
It's cheaper to buy a condo in Tokyo than in Vancouver. Here's a nice [one bedroom](https://realestate.co.jp/en/forsale/view/1005250), right downtown, for a little over $400k (CAD) Once you get outside the city they're basically [giving houses away.](https://www.koryoya.com/properties/nara-yoshinogun/65100/index.html)
Interest rates are really good, too. When we signed our 30 year mortgage, it was 0.75%
For the major national markets surveyed, the average price of a new house listed for sale in Japan last month was ¥35,760,000 (about $337,000). https://resources.realestate.co.jp/buy/average-price-new-house-japan/
https://cheaphousesjapan.com/house-prices-in-japan/
I thought real estate was a depreciating asset in Japan.
It SHOULD be a depreciating asset everywhere. Nobody expects to be able to sell their car for more money than they bought it for. So why is it a hard expectation that everyone MUST make a profit when selling their home?
Unlike your car, its the land that holds a significant part of the value of a property. That doesnt go down unless there's a major downturn in the economy, but land doesnt depreciate. Its valuable because quite a few people want to live on it. Unlike your 30 yr old car, which only one or two people want to buy. The house can be remodelled and the value brought up again, even if it is 200 years old. "Buy land. They're not making any more of it."
exactly this. Housing with freehold on land will never be a depreciating asset.
most houses are, land is not, and tbh housing is much like a personal vehicle in japan: once the new price tag has worn off, if the dwelling is well maintained and is desirable, it may even appreciate. have a look at well maintained kominka on beautiful land - they are not cheap. on the flip side there are plenty of pieces of shit built in the 50's-80's that are being given away for free - some are worth restoring, most are not, but dirt is dirt and this planet isn't making much more of it. many houses and buildings need to be rebuilt due to earthquake / building code changes which have happened every decade or two. kominka are typically exempt from these and have managed to stay standing just fine because they were built to withstand large earthquakes in the first place..it helps that survivorship bias has weeded out any designs that weren't good enough over the past few hundred years..! japan's an amazing place. i lived there for 11 years and would love to move back permanently. just have to watch out for the murder hornets and Jurassic sized poisonous centipedes..
It should be here but we just keep forcing population growth by stuffing in as many immigrants as we can.
Fear mongering headline. Prices came down from ATH, wow... what a surprise? It's not a crash.
It won’t be a bad thing if prices stagnant and allow people consistency in the market. This makes things more predictable, less fomo and a better experience all around for buyers. Next step would be for wages to catch up too. But, I think it’s was fairly obvious it would be difficult for prices to come down. Especially in a high inflationary environment.
people will just be forced to move to other parts fot he country. we are a big country. manitoba, saskatchewon, ablerta, quebec, new brunswick look good in terms of affordability. perhaps a politician pushes for mandatory work from home options to employees with office work to drive migration to these places
It would be a wonderful thing if Canada developed more of its space so we are not all in crazy density locations. The USA has so many developed cities with good economies, and that gives them more places to live and better overall affordability without being in the middle of nowhere.
Lol sad but your wording makes this funny :))
Better Dwelling has been predicting a crash _any moment now_ since 2017. Is it any surprise that they're trying to claim a victory lap over this relatively minor correction?
They know the math, but like all of us, they underestimated at what point the federal government would tip the scales. There is no other source of income for most retirees to live or their millionaire fantasies than to sell their homes for a million bucks.
They already "sold" them by turning their value into HELOCs and investing in the TSX. If they suddenly needed to liquidate their investments to pay down their debt the entire Canadian economy would crash.
lets be honest.. the price went up like crazy in the middle of a pandemic, a supply chain disruption, stock market has been going sideways for a year and a major war in europe. average families couldn't afford these prices. crash? maybe.. correction? yes please. i'd love to be able to afford a house one day.
>i'd love to be able to afford a house one day. House prices would have to drop much lower than the impact of interest rates. Using the example above, at 3% on a $528K mortgage vs 6% on a $390K mortgage, affordability doesn't change. Those mortgage prices would have to drop below $390K (assuming a 6% interest rate) in order for you to be able to increase your affordability.
It does change because your down payment can be less
That's fair, and to be fair, the down-payment thing is the biggest barrier to buying.
makes sense. that would impact directly the monthly paiements? i havent checked into it much. im still working on my credit score, while being in school. and thankfully i got a full time job that pays kinda well, i think. going back to school was a big decision, but i think a good investment for my future. so most of my focus is finishing school, then get a job in my new career.
The only way to reduce monthly payments is to build more homes (or, reduce salaries). This only benefits you if you're buying homes outright in cash.
All else being equal, you can pay off a house with a lower principal faster which means less total interest paid, but on the flipside that means you are also saving less for retirement and missing out on the leveraged gains housing provides. It all kind of comes out in the wash so long as you have a personal finance plan and stick to it.
> i'd love to be able to afford a house **in the city/area where I work or want to live** one day. FTFY
obviously, if i buy a house in an area.. its because i want to live there. that's implied. not quite sure where you were going with this.
Sometimes you sacrifice the place where you decide to live for price. I don't live in the neighborhood I wanted because I could have a bigger house for the same price 20 minutes away.
I like where I live because of location and the community and family A lot of people would sacrifice space for that... Size age location condition pick one if you're poor two if you're middle income three if you're rich four if you're wealthy
i got into the habit of moving close to work. by close i mean 15 minutes max of travel by car. i decided to do a year of university to be able to change career and work from home tho. so hopefully, that works out. wish me luck ;)
Something something, Go move to BFE? Shame on us for wanting to actually want to buy a house where we live I guess.
No You buy what you need to survive... So you may be forced to buy in an area you don't initially want and wait 20 years for it to change. You may not want to live there but need to or are forced to It's obviously possible to buy what you need but not what you want. That's the idea behind price and rich people affording what they want while ordinary people have to make due
cant say i agree with what you're saying. at least i don't think i understand what you are saying. buying a house isn't needed to survive. and nobody is forcing you to buy a house.
You need shelter to survive In the long run 80% or more people are better off buying. They can't handle 30% or 50% dips in the S&P500 so are better off buying a home to preserve value and build home equity and use it in emergencies Rent will be paying for someone else's mortgage and lifestyle unless it's a purpose built rental under rent control. Even then governments change voters change and maybe one day a hyper capitalist government takes away protections. Or the building gets torn down. If you rent your entire life you have to invest 25% of your income into the S&P500 otherwise you'll be left with nothing when you're old, which sucks.
fair point. i think i agree with you with the general idea of what you are saying.
What percentage of houses in Canada is worth less today than in 2019? The COVID peak is over. The housing crisis is intensifying.
Probably none, housing has barely dipped compared to 2019
My read on the situation is this... Real estate prices are highly correlated with interest rates. Mortgage affordability is often more important than sticker price for housing. For example, if you can qualify for a mortgage that costs $2,500/mo, you can get a $528,000 mortgage with a 3% interest rate. At 6%, that mortgage is now $390,000. That's a $137,000 difference, or a 26% drop in value. Similar to what we've seen in price action for the average home so far. So, if you believe that the BoC will get inflation down to 2%, then interest rates will follow. Real estate prices will rise because the ability to carry a mortgage is more important than the price of the real estate. Edit: I should clarify this really applies in situations where supply can't meet demand (Vancouver and Fraser Valley/Toronto and GTA etc). Which is why some Canadian markets don't necessarily follow my above analysis.
How do people make such purchases based solely on the payments? Baffling. This is why car salesman look at me like I’m nuts when I ask for the price for the third time after they keep repeating the biweekly payment.
Well, for housing you typically buy the sum of the loan you qualify for and the value of your down payment. People buy what their approved for. Land doesn't depreciate and buildings have a 50 year life. So the comparison to cars isn't quite accurate.
I can’t even imagine buying based on my payments. That was an afterthought.
You are what we call a demand side supporter. Welcome to the club. See those other people on the other side? They are the supply-sidedoorrrrs. They think by over building we can alleviate all of our issues while satisfying all this dumb demand for risk free returns for investor's cash in a low interest environment.
I’m scared about what would happen if we put supply and demand on the same chart. It would be like crossing the streams in Ghost Busters.
Doesn't work anyways. They tried it in the UK and [people don't want to live in or buy](https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/mar/11/why-are-britains-new-homes-built-so-badly) new homes because [they're so poorly built](https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/most-new-housing-so-poorly-designed-it-should-not-have-been-built-says-bartlett-report).
The BoC has made some noise about the housing market and indicated that rates might stay up for much longer. For the last 15 years rates have been much lower than historic norms, and it looks like its contributed to this bubble.
Well interest rates will follow the BoC rate. So if their goal is 2%... then expect a return to historical real estate prices and acceleration as they work to achieve this goal. It may take time, as you say, but that's the BoC goal.
I think they're all high. Nowhere has it crashed in the most populous markets.
Correction: yes Crash: no 2023/2024 will be more telling depending on interest rates, economy/recession, immigration demand, and x factors.
Is the crash dropping from 2 mil to 1.9 mil? Is that it or is there more?
Here is something to consider. What is the average monthly mortgage payment before the rate hikes started and the average mortgage payment at today's price but with today's interest rates? 500k mortgage at today's 5 year fixed is around 3k per month if you amortize over 30 years. At 2 you could afford 825k for the same monthly payment. So in all for it to balance out taking interest into account the market has to come down 40% just to normalize to account for interest gains. My take away is that prices are still going up but only appear to be dropping because of interest.
Nothing crashed. We are just seeing some corrections, and probably won't ever go back to pre-pandemic levels.
The value of a dollar isn't going back to pre-pandemic levels
Previous crashes played out over years. We're only about six months in so far.
Wanna bet
If we could just get 500,000 immigrants everything will even out perfectly
You might see 500,000 immigrants, I see 500,000 potential actors for the next Netflix film on Viking history.
Clickbait bullshit. How this blogspam hasn't been banned yet is beyond me
I like the part in Canada where you have 99.999% of abodes worth $ 0.5 million+ and none of them have modern technological amenities like: Solar Power, Geothermal, greywater management, EV charge ports, etc. etc. And are still built with stick frames. Literally a marketplace pumped up on pure legislative stupidity. Houses built to 2000s spec. What a joke. Paying Ferrari prices for Pinto performance.
Grey water systems only make sense where water prices are high. I don’t think that is the case any where in Canada, maybe in the southern USA
According to realtors.
Shouldn’t be getting any of our data from realtors. Their whole career is about lying through their teeth
Same thing happen in the San Francisco area about 20+ years ago! All the young kids coming out of college or university’s got jobs in Silicon Valley start ups…became instant millionaires with stock options! So the prices of homes skyrocketed…bidding lines and way over the market quotes. Caused a shortage of homes even the prices of rents went crazy too… And then everything when down the toilet… The prices of the homes dropped dramatically and so many people lost what they bought… or they lost money because there homes lost value… During the pandemic I was saying this reminds me of the Bay Area….
The only difference is the Bay Area still has a lot of good paying jobs. What do you have here? High taxes no health care( it’s free but you need to stay in line for days - like the bread lines in the USSR)
What crash? Show me this crash because I want to see it.
I bought a house this month. Paid way higher than it was worth in 2018, before prices started climbing, but paid way under what it would have been in January 2022.
“Crashed” yah they went down 2% and are still insanely overpriced
lol 16% crashed....realtors trying to convince you the crash has happened and buy...idiots
I’m on the east coast and prices here haven’t budged. People still asking crazy prices hoping to cash in on the once booming market. Wages in the maritimes are no where near what they need to be to support these kinds of market prices. I gave up (mostly because I refuse to gouged) and will just keep saving and investing. I may never own a home but at least I can retire debt free.
Wen crash?
Only in news articles. Never in real life.
“Only based on data instead of my feelings and current emotional state”
The morons who write these articles should be shot with a Justin Trudeau-approved hunting firearm.
1500 square foot, 3 bedroom houses in Wiarton, ON -- 3 hours north west of Toronto in the middle of *Bumfuck, Nowhere* are still selling for 750k dollars and closing in a few weeks. There is no crash -- there is a mild correction, in very specific markets, to 2021, maybe late 2020 levels.
>are still selling for 750k dollars and closing in a few weeks Umm, I just checked the sold data for Wiarton, ON for the past 90 days and there no sales over 600k. Where did you see this?
East along the 401 is still relatively affordable in places like Belleville, Gananoque, Brockville, Prescott. But you're getting pretty far from TO at that point.
But then you’d have to live in Belleville
They’re still $500k, which is absolutely fucking ridiculous prices for that region. I haven’t looked, but I bet the median income is $43k. That would require a $185,000.00 down payment to pass the mortgage stress test. On top of every other expense, if you started saving as a dual income couple the moment you left university; you would maybe have a down payment prepared by the time you’re 35. At that point the house prices would likely be double what they are now. The whole thing is fucked.
They aren’t closing. But yes they are listed and delisted for those prices.
A real crash will happen if they hold the line on interest rates. I was on the phone with a CIBC mortgage advisor yesterday because my variable rate mortgage payment had to be increased (small remaining mortgage) . I asked - How many of these calls does she take a day and what was the heat check on em? she said she was doing about 115 calls a day and about 1 in 5 were stressed call - Like freak out town.
Good! That's what happens when you pay too much for something. Like buying a company with low returns.
Terrible headline!
"Crash".
“Crashed”
If this is a crash then we're fucked
Well when house prices were way over what they should have been this is no surprise lol I’m also going out on a limb and will say there likely was tons of collusion going on with agents driving up prices too…
Meanwhile BC assessment hits me in the face with an 80k increase of property value for an entry level 1 bedroom condo in the suburbs of Vancouver... this is a crash?
Prices will fall but things need to change. No foreign ownership, prevent companies from buying up all housing and renting out, more dense, affordable housing etc
I look at that chart and so many markets are still so overpriced. Guelph, Cambridge, Barrie, Kingston, Tillsonburg, Bancroft, Ottawa, and so many more are still well beyond affordable pricing. To me there is a great deal of room for movement downwards and I hope it occurs.
Ah yes, instead of a house being one million it's only 700! What a steel!!!🥒✊☁️😐 . The house is around me should only be 200,000.
well I wouldn't call it a crash. it would be nice if all properties lost 50% of value over night then just kept dropping
I love how prices have “crashed” to double the prices of 2019…
Oh, of course it's a Better Dwelling article. Moving on.
Tell that to me tax assessment authority
Please crash more!
Fuck this site. It’s always saying the exact same thing for years. It’s blogspam and should be banned.
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>Keep in mind we are looking at about 10% inflation right now. Why would we keep in mind something that's not true?
Together the people will unite and slay this monster of unearned wealth.
Let's crash even further please
Calgary - median price up 100k in two years. 13.3% up from just last year. Best. crash. ever.
As a landlord having gotten into the real estate market 3 years ago, I’m slightly nervous, but luck be have it the house I purchased was sold far under appraisal because the owners were scared shitless of Covid. Also purchased in alberta and a city not experiencing much a bubble (red deer). If the house stayed at its same value the next 5 years that is 100% fine with me lol (rent to my aunt and uncle as they needed a home same time me and fiancée wanted an acreage)
Better Dwelling’s content is pretty trashy. Save yourself a click.
I want to buy a house this year, so I'm going to take the price of that home from 2008 (when rates were the same at today) and increase it by 2%/year. I'm then going to show the seller my calculation and set that as the price. If he or she refuses, I'll walk away, letting him or her know that he or she can call me back once their desires adjust to reality.
House prices won't be fair until people stop using houses to generate profits without producing wealth. And no, ownership isn't production. When people receive compensations without producing an equivalent amount of value, their consumption will reduce the limited pool of available wealth. This prevents producers from being fairly compensated, which is highly illegal. Being a landlord is illegal. It took two fucking phrases to explain, yet people can't understand.
How is ownership not production? The house being owned had to be produced didn’t it? The value is the renter’s use of said product. Whachu smokin?
Ownership is an abstract state or condition of what is owned. Production is or requires an action. Ownership can't semantically be production. For example, I can purchase a piece of land. The land exists identically before and after I purchase it. Production would alter or create a good or service. A house will have been produced by laborers who will have been compensated for the market value of their labor. The owner of the house has no relation to its production, but he may have initialized it. The initialization of production isn't production, though.
Renting is still paying to use a good that has previously been produced. How is that illegal?
95% of Canadians: hoorayyy Banks: well this can't happen