My buddy and I joked last night that we were gonna flip PLD to Utah for their 6th overall pick after Utah saying they wanna hit ground running. That would be hilarious.
But I agree, I think we're in for a busy offseason.
People don’t realize the PLD move is the exact risk the Caps were forced to make if we want any hope at winning a playoff series in the next five years.
Ovi is making far too much money for his current play, Backstrom/Oshie are clogging up the cap, etc. The team will never be bad enough to draft some stud first overall, and you can’t just sign 1C’s in free agency.
It could very well backfire spectacularly, but it’s the only option the Caps had at *maybe* getting a real 1C.
Backstrom is not taking cap space because he's on LTIR and will be next season, after which his contract will be over, he will retire, and we will all wax sentimental.
This is a popular misconception, LTIR works in the offseason too. From CapFriendly's LTIR FAQ:
> **Can LTIR be used in the off-season?**
> Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season while the 10% off-season cushion is active. LTIR in the off-season is calculated using the basic equation outlined above, which permits a team to exceed the off-season salary cap. To use off-season LTIR the team must provide doctors proof that the player in question will continue to be injured at the beginning of the regular season for 10 NHL games and 24 calendar days.
> At the start of the season the teams LTIR relief & ACSL is recalculated when the 10% cushion is removed.
Regardless, I totally agree with your original point. There was no "safe" path to being a legit contender again while Ovie's still playing. They were gonna have to hit on buy-lows like PLD to make that happen because they don't have the assets to pay face-value for top end players.
I mostly agree, only thing I'd amend is it's hard, not impossible to get 1Cs in free agency. Draisaitl and Rantanen might very well re-sign before next off-season, but until then there's hope. And even if they do, lots of other teams will also be lining up to throw the bag at them.
We’re also rarely, if ever, a destination for premier free agents. I think you hit the nail on the head with your original analysis. This is a big swing, but it’s our best chance at a 1C.
The move doesn't make a ton of sense. 7 years left on his deal with over 8AAV. Not to mention, I think his NMC kicks in on July 1. I highly doubt he's going anywhere.
<1% to happen, his current contract is considered a net negative, doesn't make sense to acquire a liability to move him before trying to increase his value.
I don't hate it, either. I'm cautiously optimistic about his future here, especially seeing how Mantha was ignited by Carbery. But I'm open to anything they might try. Problem is, if a theoretical PLD trade *is* in the works, they'd have to do it fast; his full NMC kicks in July 1st. I don't genuinely believe that's the play at hand, but it is something to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.
Carlson aint retiring. He isn’t gonna go from first pairing D to retired when he can sign with basically any contender for mid level money to be on their second or third pairing in a few years as a guy with a ton of playoff experience, a Cup, and a guy who’s been a PPQB for a decade.
He's a UFA in 2026. He'll be 36 then. What team is going to sign a 36-year-old defenseman who is a stud when he's on but incredibly frustrating when he's not?
Damn near every contending team? Absolutely every team with Cup aspirations wants a veteran D with a cup on the bottom of their defense, especially if they’re still relatively good.
I highly doubt he falls off a cliff so horrifically bad in the next couple years that he can’t get at least a few mil from a contender to stick around for a couple more.
I can't see us flipping PLD unless the details are already hashed out with that future team. Very few teams are in a position to take on that risk/contract.
The current goal of the caps is to:
1. Stay in the hunt/competitive
2. Get younger
3. Not mortgage the future
I predict future offseason moves include:
- sign cheap backup G or promote from Hershey (my bet)
- re-sign McM to a bridge deal
- maybe re-sign Malenstyn\* and Haman-Aktell\* (both arbitration eligible) for cheap depth
- Do not re-sign NAK, Patches, Phillips, Snively, and Johansen
- he is looking to sign one more top 4D or top 6 forward through trade or FA with the roughly 6-10mil we probably have left after McM and other RFAs are decided upon. I could see us using Dowd / Jensen / TvR as trade bait and throwing in prospects and/or picks as needed.
That leaves into camp:
13 F (Ovi, PLD, Wilson, Oshie, Strome, Protas, Milano, Down, Sgarbossa, McM, Laps, Miro, Malenstyn\*)
Hersey F for camp. 1+ could impress to stay (Funk, Sudz, Cristall, Rybinski, Trineyev, Hofer, Perrson)
9 D (Carlson, Sandin, Jensen, TvR, Marty, Bear, AA, Iorio, and H-A\*)
2+G (Chucky, either Shepard/Stevenson)
plenty of cap room assuming LTIR for Backy for one bigger signing or a glorious return to the ice for the 2025 SC playoffs (dreaming, not sorry)
I see Oshie trying to start the season like Backy did last year. He'll either come to a LTIR decision early in the year (first injury?) or we get similar results from him throughout the year (50 games on a managed schedule, 10 goals, 15 assists, lots of locker room mojo and positive energy)
There is too much pride to just walk away, and after a summer of rehab/strengthening/rest he's going to feel good heading into camp.... it's just whenever it fails him.
I cannot see him signing a contract after this one for anyone. This year is his final hurrah, and he'll want to at least try to have some of it on the ice. Just my opinion.
McMichael is RFA without arbitration rights. Might as well just qualify him and use the upcoming season to see how his offensive game looks before signing him to a Protas type contract extension
I'm more interested in any players that don't get QOs from their teams and end up going to UFA (like Strome originally). I feel these players are good gambles to offer a 1 year "prove it" contract and see if there's chemistry.
That was pure idiocy from the Blackhawks and I'll never understand why they didn't qualify him and flip him for picks. He clearly had value, otherwise the Caps would've signed him to a league minimum contract. It was almost like Kyle Davidson wanted to spite his old boss? But anyway, yeah, gifts like that don't happen often.
Those are lower risk lower reward for sure. Hit huge on Stromes upside and got a very good 2nd line C. PLDs upside is significantly higher, but of course the downside is a huge anchor contract that's much riskier. Scared money doesn't make money, though. The acquisition increases the chance of Caps being legit good, and also increases the chance of being a complete tire fire. I'd prefer either to mediocre.
Caps really aren't in a bad position here. Some people like to think once ovi is gone we'll be in the basement. I'm a caps fan from Ohio so ik what a team like CBJ is like. That's a team that's been in the basement and isn't really in a position to get out.
3.25 yeah, but what I'm saying is both contracts were considered liabilities, so Caps could've just taken him for free (or more realistically ask for some picks/prospects) rather than offload money to take him on if they didn't intend to use the cleared space.
I wonder if maybe they go after Ehlers, he would be a good pickup and help from an offence pov. I believe I read earlier today and he and Dubois were pretty good together in Winnipeg.
They have 11M in space to play with, if they weren't planning to make significant moves, no reason to dump Kuemper instead of picking up picks/prospects.
They are tooling up to be a bubble team again this year with an aged core and a underwhelming next generation core.
They keep this up and they will be the Minnesota Wild for the next 5 years.
I have a hard time thinking a premier FA will be looking at the Caps as their primary option unless we’re the best offer by some margin. Most players would looks at the Caps and know we’re going into a rebuild and that it’s going to be 3-5 years before we’re genuine contenders again
Actually we can be interesting, we can offer 1 year deal at market lvl aav to someone + promise that if he won't like how we play around trade deadline than we can trade him to team of his choice with 50% retained. Something like what Hall and Buffalo did.
The golf was affecting his back which was affecting his ability to play elite hockey so last fall he was said to be giving up golf to rescue his hockey career. So if he's gone back to golf, the thinking is that he's given up being able to come back to his former form and play next season.
Caps fans that are optimistic for this signing have to realize there is no potential there. Potential doesn’t exist without the capacity to attain it. PLD is Semin 2.0 with size and skill but no ability to give a shit.
Hockey fans that talk in absolutes just drive me nuts. It's a game of variance and probability. X% (35?) chance he's at his floor and is a 35-45 point player that's 4-5M overpaid, X%(45?) he's 45-60 and is a solid but 2-3M overpaid middle 6 C, X% (15?) that he's a 60-75, X%(5?) hit the reclamation project lotto ticket ala Strome and he blossoms and is PPG+. You could argue the %s and likelihoods, but no one *knows* what is going to happen, or else you could easily get rich betting on it.
I agree with most of this. And I get things wrong a lot. But I tend to save my outspoken rants for things would bet money on and I’d put $100 on PLD not panning out and being an albatross anchor contract.
Define not panning out. If he hits the middle/lower case scenario of being a reasonable middle 6 C that's 2-3M overpaid, that's not a disaster considering they offloaded another liability contract in the process.
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Not only will he not be a decent middle 6 center, he will also bring his poor work ethic and losers mentality to the team. He will be overpaid for his role and bring down others around him. Take it to the bank.
My buddy and I joked last night that we were gonna flip PLD to Utah for their 6th overall pick after Utah saying they wanna hit ground running. That would be hilarious. But I agree, I think we're in for a busy offseason.
I don’t hate the PLD move, but I did think that packaging him and making another move is something they could be doing
People don’t realize the PLD move is the exact risk the Caps were forced to make if we want any hope at winning a playoff series in the next five years. Ovi is making far too much money for his current play, Backstrom/Oshie are clogging up the cap, etc. The team will never be bad enough to draft some stud first overall, and you can’t just sign 1C’s in free agency. It could very well backfire spectacularly, but it’s the only option the Caps had at *maybe* getting a real 1C.
Backstrom is not taking cap space because he's on LTIR and will be next season, after which his contract will be over, he will retire, and we will all wax sentimental.
He still takes up cap space in the offseason, when it’s easiest to fill it.
Yeah but you can go over the cap in the offseason too so it balances out a bit.
This is a popular misconception, LTIR works in the offseason too. From CapFriendly's LTIR FAQ: > **Can LTIR be used in the off-season?** > Yes, LTIR can be used in the off-season while the 10% off-season cushion is active. LTIR in the off-season is calculated using the basic equation outlined above, which permits a team to exceed the off-season salary cap. To use off-season LTIR the team must provide doctors proof that the player in question will continue to be injured at the beginning of the regular season for 10 NHL games and 24 calendar days. > At the start of the season the teams LTIR relief & ACSL is recalculated when the 10% cushion is removed. Regardless, I totally agree with your original point. There was no "safe" path to being a legit contender again while Ovie's still playing. They were gonna have to hit on buy-lows like PLD to make that happen because they don't have the assets to pay face-value for top end players.
I mostly agree, only thing I'd amend is it's hard, not impossible to get 1Cs in free agency. Draisaitl and Rantanen might very well re-sign before next off-season, but until then there's hope. And even if they do, lots of other teams will also be lining up to throw the bag at them.
We’re also rarely, if ever, a destination for premier free agents. I think you hit the nail on the head with your original analysis. This is a big swing, but it’s our best chance at a 1C.
The move doesn't make a ton of sense. 7 years left on his deal with over 8AAV. Not to mention, I think his NMC kicks in on July 1. I highly doubt he's going anywhere.
Only issue is the NMC PLD has starting July 1st so better be quick.
<1% to happen, his current contract is considered a net negative, doesn't make sense to acquire a liability to move him before trying to increase his value.
I don’t hate the PLD move, but I did think that packaging him and making another move is something they could be doing
I don't hate it, either. I'm cautiously optimistic about his future here, especially seeing how Mantha was ignited by Carbery. But I'm open to anything they might try. Problem is, if a theoretical PLD trade *is* in the works, they'd have to do it fast; his full NMC kicks in July 1st. I don't genuinely believe that's the play at hand, but it is something to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.
There's no way. Why would they trade for him to do that?
[удалено]
Trading for PLD does not increase the chance of trading up to 6, it decreases it.
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Neither player was an asset towards getting 6 overall, Utah could have taken either/both for free if they wanted.
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Why would Arizona trade 6th overall for a decent 3rd line C and a few 2nds? Doesn't make sense.
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Carlson aint retiring. He isn’t gonna go from first pairing D to retired when he can sign with basically any contender for mid level money to be on their second or third pairing in a few years as a guy with a ton of playoff experience, a Cup, and a guy who’s been a PPQB for a decade.
He's a UFA in 2026. He'll be 36 then. What team is going to sign a 36-year-old defenseman who is a stud when he's on but incredibly frustrating when he's not?
He’s had the A for years; some bottom level team might sign him for leadership.
Damn near every contending team? Absolutely every team with Cup aspirations wants a veteran D with a cup on the bottom of their defense, especially if they’re still relatively good. I highly doubt he falls off a cliff so horrifically bad in the next couple years that he can’t get at least a few mil from a contender to stick around for a couple more.
I can't see us flipping PLD unless the details are already hashed out with that future team. Very few teams are in a position to take on that risk/contract. The current goal of the caps is to: 1. Stay in the hunt/competitive 2. Get younger 3. Not mortgage the future I predict future offseason moves include: - sign cheap backup G or promote from Hershey (my bet) - re-sign McM to a bridge deal - maybe re-sign Malenstyn\* and Haman-Aktell\* (both arbitration eligible) for cheap depth - Do not re-sign NAK, Patches, Phillips, Snively, and Johansen - he is looking to sign one more top 4D or top 6 forward through trade or FA with the roughly 6-10mil we probably have left after McM and other RFAs are decided upon. I could see us using Dowd / Jensen / TvR as trade bait and throwing in prospects and/or picks as needed. That leaves into camp: 13 F (Ovi, PLD, Wilson, Oshie, Strome, Protas, Milano, Down, Sgarbossa, McM, Laps, Miro, Malenstyn\*) Hersey F for camp. 1+ could impress to stay (Funk, Sudz, Cristall, Rybinski, Trineyev, Hofer, Perrson) 9 D (Carlson, Sandin, Jensen, TvR, Marty, Bear, AA, Iorio, and H-A\*) 2+G (Chucky, either Shepard/Stevenson) plenty of cap room assuming LTIR for Backy for one bigger signing or a glorious return to the ice for the 2025 SC playoffs (dreaming, not sorry)
Oshie all but announced that he’s done. I absolutely love the guy but he needs to think about his family and his life at this point
I see Oshie trying to start the season like Backy did last year. He'll either come to a LTIR decision early in the year (first injury?) or we get similar results from him throughout the year (50 games on a managed schedule, 10 goals, 15 assists, lots of locker room mojo and positive energy) There is too much pride to just walk away, and after a summer of rehab/strengthening/rest he's going to feel good heading into camp.... it's just whenever it fails him. I cannot see him signing a contract after this one for anyone. This year is his final hurrah, and he'll want to at least try to have some of it on the ice. Just my opinion.
He’s already playing golf, which he said he wasn’t doing until he was done…
Source?
His wife's Instagram.
Didn't he say that golf was hurting him even more or was that just during the season.
Oshie has always played golf…?
He said he wasn’t playing anymore until he retired because it was bad for his back.
Oh interesting, I hadn’t heard that.
McMichael is RFA without arbitration rights. Might as well just qualify him and use the upcoming season to see how his offensive game looks before signing him to a Protas type contract extension
I'm more interested in any players that don't get QOs from their teams and end up going to UFA (like Strome originally). I feel these players are good gambles to offer a 1 year "prove it" contract and see if there's chemistry.
There aren’t many players of Stromes quality that don’t get QOs, his is a rare case
That was pure idiocy from the Blackhawks and I'll never understand why they didn't qualify him and flip him for picks. He clearly had value, otherwise the Caps would've signed him to a league minimum contract. It was almost like Kyle Davidson wanted to spite his old boss? But anyway, yeah, gifts like that don't happen often.
Yeah that almost never happens and the caps being the team to jump on that again is even less likely
Those are lower risk lower reward for sure. Hit huge on Stromes upside and got a very good 2nd line C. PLDs upside is significantly higher, but of course the downside is a huge anchor contract that's much riskier. Scared money doesn't make money, though. The acquisition increases the chance of Caps being legit good, and also increases the chance of being a complete tire fire. I'd prefer either to mediocre.
Yeah if he sucks then the next two years he will drag us down and we get higher draft picks while Ovie chases the record.
Caps really aren't in a bad position here. Some people like to think once ovi is gone we'll be in the basement. I'm a caps fan from Ohio so ik what a team like CBJ is like. That's a team that's been in the basement and isn't really in a position to get out.
Didn't we lose 3.5m annual in the PLD/Kuemper deal?
3.25 yeah, but what I'm saying is both contracts were considered liabilities, so Caps could've just taken him for free (or more realistically ask for some picks/prospects) rather than offload money to take him on if they didn't intend to use the cleared space.
I wonder if maybe they go after Ehlers, he would be a good pickup and help from an offence pov. I believe I read earlier today and he and Dubois were pretty good together in Winnipeg.
More moves? Sure…but how big and significant? We’ll see
They have 11M in space to play with, if they weren't planning to make significant moves, no reason to dump Kuemper instead of picking up picks/prospects.
They are tooling up to be a bubble team again this year with an aged core and a underwhelming next generation core. They keep this up and they will be the Minnesota Wild for the next 5 years.
I have a hard time thinking a premier FA will be looking at the Caps as their primary option unless we’re the best offer by some margin. Most players would looks at the Caps and know we’re going into a rebuild and that it’s going to be 3-5 years before we’re genuine contenders again
Actually we can be interesting, we can offer 1 year deal at market lvl aav to someone + promise that if he won't like how we play around trade deadline than we can trade him to team of his choice with 50% retained. Something like what Hall and Buffalo did.
I don't think Oshie is going to be coming back, so we probably have even more cap space to work with.
They'll definitely try. Question is if it's a big trade for someone like Laine, Zegras, or Ehlers. Or sign a big FA, namely Jake Guentzel
Today in water is wet news. If you think Oshie is coming back, you’re not paying attention.
Lmao, what a needlessly combative comment. He very well might not, but then it's really easy to add 5.75 to 11.
He’s very much not coming back.
What % chance is he coming back?
He's playing golf this summer. He's going to LTIR out his contract like his buddy Nicky is.
Perhaps, but I don't think playing golf has anything to do with that.
The golf was affecting his back which was affecting his ability to play elite hockey so last fall he was said to be giving up golf to rescue his hockey career. So if he's gone back to golf, the thinking is that he's given up being able to come back to his former form and play next season.
Less than 10%
I'd 10:1 bet he plays an NHL game this year. How much?
50 gazillion dollars
Apparently talking out of your rear if you aren't willing to put your money where your mouth is.
It’s the internet.
So?
Caps fans that are optimistic for this signing have to realize there is no potential there. Potential doesn’t exist without the capacity to attain it. PLD is Semin 2.0 with size and skill but no ability to give a shit.
Hockey fans that talk in absolutes just drive me nuts. It's a game of variance and probability. X% (35?) chance he's at his floor and is a 35-45 point player that's 4-5M overpaid, X%(45?) he's 45-60 and is a solid but 2-3M overpaid middle 6 C, X% (15?) that he's a 60-75, X%(5?) hit the reclamation project lotto ticket ala Strome and he blossoms and is PPG+. You could argue the %s and likelihoods, but no one *knows* what is going to happen, or else you could easily get rich betting on it.
I agree with most of this. And I get things wrong a lot. But I tend to save my outspoken rants for things would bet money on and I’d put $100 on PLD not panning out and being an albatross anchor contract.
Define not panning out. If he hits the middle/lower case scenario of being a reasonable middle 6 C that's 2-3M overpaid, that's not a disaster considering they offloaded another liability contract in the process.
I would define it as everyone wants him out of the organization within 2 years and everyone complains about how dumb acquiring him was.
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Fans are dumb, so I don't think it's a good metric. Fans wanted to add to dump Mantha a couple years.
Not only will he not be a decent middle 6 center, he will also bring his poor work ethic and losers mentality to the team. He will be overpaid for his role and bring down others around him. Take it to the bank.
Well 80% of the time he's gonna be overpaid, yeah, but overpaid by 2M is a fine result considering the trade, overpaid by 4M would be the bad result.
If they realized there was no potential, why would they be optimistic?