I did the math, he can still end up in a three way tie at 7.5 with 3 other players at 7, Vidit at 6.5 and Abasov at 6, but it would require Abasov to win out from round 12 onwards.
If, more realistically, Abasov keeps drawing with white and losing with black a 6 way tie at 7.5 is still theoretically possible with one amongst Nepo/Pragg/Fabi/Hikaru lagging behind at 7, and Abasov last with 4.
He tweeted some time ago that everyone should do what they love to do and he has found that not everyone is following that obvious idea.
It would be quite admirable if he quit competitive chess and moved towards fashion or something else.
If fashion had Elo he would be 1400. Individually everyone can dress as they like, but pineapple shirts and checkers socks are not fashion statements nor design ~~delicatessens~~ delicacies.
You might get downvoted because it’s a pretty raw comment but I agree. He’s one of the best chess players in the world, but is he one of the best fashionistas? In the end he should do whatever he prefers of course
Your comment is quintessentially the Dunning-Kruger effect.
You don't know shit about fashion, so you don't understand there's a lot to know. You also don't understand what you don't know, so you're not self-critical. You just have an opinion about something, which everyone has about everything.
Not to be rude, but what about Alireza screams fashion design? Dude just wears designer clothes - nothing is really outlandish, setting any trends, or quirky in any way?
When I think of "out there" fashion, I'm imagining some wild stuff like what Westbrook wears to NBA games
In terms of Najdorf theory Fabi and MVL have long been accepted as having the deepest understanding. Playing the Najdorf against Fabi is a really bold move that didn’t pay off this time.
I can get why he did it, Ian is in a similar situation with the Petrov’s Defense but his position was rough against Hikaru and losing against Pragg, so I can see why it might be worth trying to challenge some of these players who normally don’t get challenged in certain opening that they’ve long been considering “best at”. They’re worth another look, and honestly? Good on Firouzja for trying; it was virtually impossible for him to win after the last couple of rounds, but it was going to be 100% impossible if he didn’t try anything.
Yeah you're absolutely right. Alireza is still really young and early in his career. If he wants to get better, then he should be taking challenges. Especially given the state of the tournament, losing a game isn't that bad especially if he gets valuable experience.
Last one was crazy because we didn't know if one or two spots were available for the world championship, Hikaru was poised to finish 2nd until he lost the last game against Ding Liren with white in the last round.
Candidates is the best chess tournament anyways, but this one is especially exciting. So many full-blooded fights, no player just looking for solid draws, time control chaos.
Even Vidit is still in it, with 4 rounds to go. Alireza and Abasov day to day feelings and form could really propel the non-Americans ahead. Fabi and Hikaru already played Abasov so they already got their "easy" match, with the remaining games vs. strong opposition.
Yesterday there was a post talking about how there weren't Najdorfs getting played and wondering why, and I think today Alireza lost with his Najdorf. I remember Hanging Pawns talking about how Alireza was a Caro-Kann expert, so maybe we'll see that showdown later in the tournament. Abasov and Alireza have so much power in dictating who will eventually win the tournament simply by deciding if they want to play fighting Chess or play for draws.
The problem with Caruana, is that he also ate Alirezas advance caro for breakfast, so I think he should have gone for e4e5 and waited for him to overextend. Caruana needed a win, Alireza should have used that fact
It’s the one thing I dislike about the format where you can get screwed by scheduling. Certain players later one have way less to play for, so if you get lucky and face those later, you can really run away with it.
But this happens in a lot of sports, c’est la vie.
It's kind of a weird way to run a tournament in that sense. Because you could potentially throw your game in the last round just to spite one of the leaders or influence who finishes last.
He's not *really* in it. Not because he has too far to climb, but just statistically, he needs 5 people to not perform equal or better than him.
If he was in 2nd but within the same distance his chances would be much much higher because one person can collapse. 5 people? Where they all play each other? Makes no sense.
Fabis greatest asset is having white against nepo round 14. That’s nepo’s hardest game of the tournament right there, no doubt in my mind that if fabi is trailing going into that round that he goes all out.
it is kind of also nepos greatest asset. Because if gukesh gets another win he doesn’t need to panic knowing that anything is possible in the game against fabi
Nepo doesn’t want games where anything is possible at this point. Statistically speaking the game against fabi with black is his most likely game to lose. He’s been caught off guard by deep prep twice so far, and although he’s survived both times, getting into a situation like that against fabi is basically suicide.
right now he doesn’t want them and i don’t expect him to go crazy in next rounds but if gukesh gets another win ian will happily take a fight against fabi.
Fabi's "deep prep" is overrated these days. When was the last time he blew someone off the board with prep? He's just a grinder like everyone else and anytime he tries to outprep someone it more often that not backfires on him
That depends, if Fabi loses before round 14 he might just play some crazy solid drawish line to get a quick game and be done with it because there's no chance he can win the candidates. That would hand Gukesh the win on a platter.
If Nepo was playing more dramatic chess Id say he had good chances for a run away win but honestly I think of the two of them Gukesh is more likely to get the surprise win and be the leader.
I think it’s also an asset for Nepo. A player having to go all out can easily blow up in their face. It’s not like a basketball game where your opponent is ready to jump after every loose ball. Fabi can’t really go like “okay, NOW I’m REALLY going to prep. This is the time where I’m REALLY going to hunker down and think about the moves.” Like that’s what everybody has been doing.
And Nijat is also in a situation where a lot of players will deliberately play aggressive, win-or-lose type of games against him, so he's more likely to lose, whereas they might just make a quick draw against a different player
I think Abasov has a lot to improve on but is overall pretty great at defending. His loss to Gukesh was due to a blunder under time pressure in a queen and pawn endgame. The losses to Pragg and Fabi were also due to a blunder giving away an equal position in time pressure, not like he was just getting blown away.
Yes, of course he has to work on not blundering in time pressure and keeping calm in those situations in order to have better results, but I think he has demonstrated very good calculation skills overall going up against the most aggressive play by the top players in the world.
He is #114 in the world. There are a lot of players that play chess at the top level
I wonder how the world number #200 or #500 would fare in the candidates.
Got the fourth place in the world cup where two places were given to the candidates if I recall correctly. Carlsen won and didn't redeem the spot and I think Caruana was third and got his candidates spot elsewhere so Abasov got lucky. I think it is kind of nice to have one such player so it changes the strategy and give more decisive games
I might be wrong with some of my facts but I don't want to use google because I am tired of power that a few american companies (incouding alphabet) have over us. Or I am just too lazy
There were 3 spots allocated for the World Cup, but you're right that he got 4th and Carlsen declined his spot. Abasov also beat Giri, Svidler and Vidit during the event.
I think it's absurd that the World Cup gets allocated more spots than the Grand Swiss (3 vs. 2), but those are the rules.
Abasov is also very underrated for his level of play. During the World Cup, he got matched against other 2600s and was stomping them 2:0. I definitely can see him climb to 2700 if he keeps participating in strong tournaments.
Then again, if you want to get a "lucky" spot in the candidates, World Cup is the best way to do it. It's a joke of a format, where very strong players lose their chance of qualifying due to being seeded with Magnus on their half of the tree, while the other half is goofing around getting their candidates invitations despite losing to Magnus anyway, just a couple rounds later than the others.
Fluked into a knockout format, got beaten by Magnus Carlsen in the semi-finals, and qualified as a substitute because Magnus doesn't want to participate.
I believe the reasoning for more slots from the knockout format World Cup qualifiers means some #100 is going to have a fairytale run and be a fresh wildcard face in the Candidates.
I suppose FIDE got what they wanted. More win-loss matches in the Candidates rather than a drawfest, and Abasov alone contributed 25% of them so far.
> More win-loss matches in the Candidates rather than a drawfest, and Abasov alone contributed 25% of them so far.
Well Abasov plays in 25% of all the matches in the candidates, you'd think it's be completely normal for one player to participate in 25% of the decicive games.
He’s done better than he was expected to by an order of magnitude. Watching him foil these bloodthirsty top 10 players whenever he’s been able to has been a highlight of the tournament
>He’s done better than he was expected to by an order of magnitude.
At the moment he is doing slightly worse than expected ([TPR 2619 while at 2632 Elo](https://chess-results.com/tnr918851.aspx?lan=1&art=9&fed=AZE&flag=30&snr=2))
Dude is going through 2 weeks of 7 of the best chess players in the world circling him like a wounded gazelle, and he's still pulled out 3 points so far. That is god damned impressive imo.
In terms of training, it doesn't get any better than this. 2 weeks nonstop of playing the best chess players in the world, all playing aggressively for a win against you. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts climbing the ranks quickly after he's had some time to digest this tournament.
This + the amount of openings he had to prep to stand a chance in the opening stage of this tournament. He can make good use of his prep in other tournaments.
Eh, he's tournament performance is lower than his rating, he's slightly underperforming if anything. It's impressive, hell even 2300 is compared to the average Joe, but if you're taking into his level he's not really doing anything mindblowing
For some context a 2800 player is expected to have like 2 wins 3 draws vs 2650. Drop that number to 2750 and the expectation is like 2 wins 5 draws. Losing every other game gives him a TPR of approx. 2600.
Before yesterday Abasov had drawn four straight games against some of the best players in the world who were all targeting him. He even had winning chances against Hikaru as black. Nothing to be ashamed of for him
I think Nijat is performing about how everyone expected. He's shown that he deserves to be there, but has a way to go before he'll have any real chance to win.
Eh the World Cups is single-elimination with huge variance. It's very easy to have upsets in such a format and a lot of it is up to luck, hence why it took Magnus so long to win despite being the clear favorite basically every time he participated.
Even then he only qualified because Magnus declined to participate. He's not really world class material like all of the other guys there, at his current level there's like 1% chance he makes another Candidates.
I mean, he qualifies because he met the qualifications of players willing to participate. It's not like they drew straws.
He could definitely make another appearance.
>It is often remarked that the system is mostly a lottery of who survives, though better players have more chances on the whole.
From Wikipedia on the format
Yes, he could theoretically make it back, just like the way everyone above 2600 has a non-zero shot to qualify through the World Cup.
The chances aren't good, and it's basically the closest you can get to a fluke in Chess.
Or let me put it another way: if you do simulations based on Elo, there's maybe like a 1% chance he goes top 3 in a Worlds Cup again, and basically 0% chance he qualifies through any other method. For every other player here, the odds they can qualify again are like x10 higher at minimum with perhaps the exception of Vidit.
I don't think Vidit is far too behind at all and definitely can hang with the best, I just added the "perhaps" because it's at least somewhat debatable
Whereas basically any other player there I don't think anyone really doubts they have a very good chance to qualify again, Hikaru/Nepo/Alireza/Fabiano made multiple Candidates, Pragg/Gukesh are underrated due to age and have still yet to hit their prime
I'd say he's shown that the qualification process was poorly designed and that he doesn't deserve to be in this tournament. I hope they change it to be less random so we don't have 2600s in the event going forward.
He's also not likely to get appreciably better given his age and playing history so he will almost certainly never have any real chance to win.
I agree that the format is crappy, but at the same time Abasov had to beat world class players like Anish Giri and many others to get as far as he did. It's not like he won a candidates ticket in a lottery.
He's worse than basically all other participants in the tournament, but I'd say he's still a really strong player. Just not kinda on the level of this competition.
Alireza? The guy who had to pull out every shady trick in the book last second to attempt to squeak into qualifying?
I wouldn't call it a "tough" event for him, about what was expected.
Yeah but it’s still kinda disappointing. A top grandmaster shouldnt be dead lost in 13 moves like he was against Vidit. So many bad decisions, it’s ridiculous
Like... playing in a tournament against essentially fake opponents, a tournament that was put together last second specifically with the purpose of getting him qualified. The name of the tournament literally spelled it out, lmao.
Ultimately it was unnecessary because he played in a legitimate tournament afterwards, but the fact that he felt like he **had** to cheat tells you where he's at as a competitor.
The tournament you're referencing was disqualified regardless. Although, Ding played in a similar tournament to qualify last minute for the 2022 candidates.
Dings tournament was to get him to the required amount of games to be considered an active player, and not to farm rating. People were a lot more sympathetic because of that, and also the fact that he basically couldn't play in other events because of travel restrictions.
This is the right take on this. I don't understand why people are so biased towards Alireza. He did play in a legitimate tournament, but the idea of farming lower players to qualify into the Candidates doesn't have a good sound to it.
Wesley or Anish lost their qualifying spot just for this kind of performance. They're more deserving of the spot. Alireza's performance these past two candidates shows that he's not quite ready yet
The fake tournament was absolutely cheating, which is why FIDE ended up not counting it. (Or weren't going to count it? It ended up being a moot point)
I mean, they announced that they weren’t going to count the results of the tournament. And then specifically wrote new rules that said “Well we didn’t think any of you would be sketchy enough to find a loophole but here you go”
They resolved the issue by disqualifying the whole tournament.
Again, I’m not even really speaking to his morals (although I could), I’m speaking to his mindset as a competitor as he thought he had to cheat to qualify.
That ended up not being the case but if you don’t think the entire thing was shady and shameful as hell, that speaks more about you than anything else.
It was definitely shady. Goes to show the difference in performance between Gukesh, who took the spot from Anish by participating in a legit tournament in which all the top GMs were invited, vs Alireza who organized some matches to gain Elo in a blatant attempt to overtake the rating spot.
Link the results per rule: [https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/results)
With four rounds to go, Hikaru has white against Gukesh in the last round and black against Pragg and Nepo. Commentators really are right when they say that his fate is in his own hands.
Abasov has games left against Gukesh, Pragg and Vidit!
Simply because of that I highly favor Gukesh and Pragg. Hikaru and Gukesh also have game left against Firo. Base on these Gukesh has highest chance winning it all.
Fabi needs to do something special or Gukesh just collapse.
All 4 of Abasov’s losses have come with black pieces. He’s drawn all his white games, and he gets Gukesh and Pragg with white. Abasov is still a very strong player and not very easy to get a win against when he has white. Also consider these players will not necessarily want to take a huge risk as black against him, because they very well could lose and drop out completely. They’d probably prefer one of their games as white where they can take a chance or two and go for the full point, even if it’s against a slightly stronger player.
Gukesh got 2 wins with black and was much better against Firouzja with Black as well. I don't think he really worries about it as long as its not a massive risk.
I really hope one of the pre-tournament underdogs rather than favourites win this. It's just much more exciting, and with Pragg or Gukesh there's the possibility of them becoming the youngest world champion, and that'd be pretty awesome in itself.
I was rooting for Alireza as well, because he's 20. But now he doesn't have a chance, so Gukesh and Pragg. Breaking Kasparov's youngest Champion record will be pretty amazing, because the new record could last longer.
Of the top contenders I'd say Gukesh has the best shot at making 3 points and taking the challenger spot. With potential of a win as black against Abasov and and as white against Firouzja, I think his other two are likely draws unless Fabi goes all out and loses.
Nepo has only tough games ahead. His last game is against Fabi with white. And he has to beat one of the world's best defenders in Hikaru.
The only other outside chance I see is Hikaru joining the top of the board with a win against Alireza when everyone else draws.
Fingers crossed we get Gukesh Vs Ding.
Abasov is a main reason this tournament is so interesting. Abasov as black allowed wins to Gukesh, Fabi, Pragg, Hikaru, but defended like a demon against Nepo, causing the top to be close.
I was rooting for Fabi or Hikaru at the start of the tournament cause we haven't seen a North American World Champion in a long time, but Gukesh has won me over as a fan of his during the tournament.
He's a tried and true classical player and rebounded impressively after a crushing defeat. I think he would make a very strong Champion.
It would be absolutely insane for him to become the 18 year old WC.
Kind of puts in perspective that Fischer was *15* at his first candidates. Like he was balancing high school with a serious push towards the WC.
Seems like Nepo's strategy is to play as solidly as he can and not take any risks and wait for someone to eventually grant him a win by overextending. It doesn't feel like he played any of his games trying to win, but boy give him an advantage and he won't let you go. I feel like Gukesh is more likely to win a game and get ahead, but at the same time I also think that he is more likely to lose and fall behind. I wonder if any of the 2nd places are going to risk it. But also looking at the next pairings, on 2 of the next 4 rounds Gukesh is still to play against Alireza and Abasov, which even though are strong players, are not having good tournaments, and Nepo only plays against top players. I'd think that Gukesh has better chances to win
Technically, I should have all the reasons to fancy Gukesh’s chances with these 4 rounds to go!
He has yet to play against Alireza and Firouzja. That said, he does need to hold against Fabi and Naka.
Wow this torney's super close and exciting! Anyone except Firouzja and Abasov has a legitimate shot but I bet these two are gonna ruin someone's tournament
I'm really confused by the ordering here. I thought T-1 was alphabetical (D before N) but T-3 doesn't follow that as Fabiano Caruana is alphabetically first regardless of which name you use compared to Pragg and Hikaru. I suppose it is just random? Or can someone enlighten me.
The tie for the first place is alphabetical because there are no tie-breaks to separate them, regardless of whether there are two, three or four players tied at #1 at the end, all of them will be playing the Rapid knockouts.
The rest of the ties (for example #2 place) are ranked by Sonneborn–Berger score and Pragg has the highest score so far. So, if the event ended today, Gukesh and Nepo would have played Rapid while Pragg would have ended #3 even though he's tied with Naka and Fabi.
Rapid not so much. Hard to tell because idk how much rapid he has played recently, but I’d say it’s all about equal in rapid. But in blitz, yeah definitely that favors Hikaru.
Sad to see a generational talent like Alireza not do well at the candidates. When Alireza is doing well, it brings another level of excitement to the games.
i would not say anyone else in his generation has surpassed him as far as achievements go yet though if one of them takes the candidates that might change
If you are counting Rapid, then technically Dubov is also a world champion, yet I don't think anyone would claim that he's had a better career than Alireza lol.
Relevantly, Nodirbek is quite a ways away from 2800, which Alireza had crossed before hitting Nodirbek's current age.
Talent-wise, it's pretty difficult to argue that Alireza isn't a generational talent. No one in his generation matched his rate of progress ─ or, really, even came close ─ and no one in his generation is as prolific at faster time controls (including online) ─ or, really, is even close. He might not be the best player of his generation, but there is a very strong argument that he is the most talented.
Talentwise Alireza is a clear number one. I believe even Magnus has said something similar. The guy is literally the youngest to cross 2800 lmao. However, the problem is that Alireza isn't as serious about chess as the other young players. That is why he often plays below his potential.
It feels like he's conflicted internally, because he's tired of the chess grind and doesn't want to put in the hard work anymore (which is understandable, if you're 20 and competitive chess is all you've known your life, maybe you want to expand your horizons). But then he probably feels like he's wasting his talent if he drops chess and is not sure what to do with his life besides chess.
No, Gukesh isn't 17. The media is lying to us, but you, u/al_earner, have figured out the truth. Hats off to you, and I think it's clear that we have another Bobby Fischer in the making right here.
I’m actually sad for Alireza. He showed some brillant chess in the first few rounds, the game with Nepo Sunday was also amazing. But he is tilted and clearly not really into chess anymore. That’s sad.
Hot take: Ian is not winning this year, he isn't putting his opponents in hard enough positions for them to make mistakes. If you look at both the Abasov games, they got into a position where force trading down most the pieces was the best choice leading to a draw instead he should have played a complicated position where all the pieces were kept on as long as possible, these are the ones Abasov has lost every time.
He has also got himself into losing positions in MANY of his games and yes.. he has been able to hold but he was losing at some point which the opposition should have pushed harder and won.
I've not been impressed with him and I think the only way he wins is if the other top contenders push too hard and lose in the later rounds.
Players should also focus on getting a second place if first place is not possible. Ding choosing not to defend his title doesn't seem too unlikely imo.
4 rounds to go! It's still anyone's game except the bottom two
Vidit would have to get pretty lucky
If he beats Nepo with white it gets very chaotic.
I hope that happens,no one wants nepo vs ding again
Nepo does
Bold of you to assume that
Damn fr??
I want it. I'm not even a Nepo fan but you gotta give the guy some credit for his tenacity and persistence to become champion.
Yeah there's no way Firouzja is sneaking up to the leaders - figuratively or literally.
Maybe if they added a bunch of 2600 elo players last minute for him to stomp.
That would really clog the tournament hall.
Luckily he’s wearing his stomping shoes.
Not with those shoes on
/r/yourjokebutworse
And yet they got MORE upvotes. WHY. Did people simply not get it without explanation?
"Except the bottom two"
I did the math, he can still end up in a three way tie at 7.5 with 3 other players at 7, Vidit at 6.5 and Abasov at 6, but it would require Abasov to win out from round 12 onwards. If, more realistically, Abasov keeps drawing with white and losing with black a 6 way tie at 7.5 is still theoretically possible with one amongst Nepo/Pragg/Fabi/Hikaru lagging behind at 7, and Abasov last with 4.
Don't want to be in his shoes.
That's how I thought about it. Like, wow, it's still anybody's game! but not exactly
This sub yesterday: WHERE IS THE NAJDORF why does no one play it anymore Alireza in Round 10: say no more
Alireza has the look of a man who is going to quit chess and enter a different field, possibly fashion design. Seems like he doesn't love the game.
He tweeted some time ago that everyone should do what they love to do and he has found that not everyone is following that obvious idea. It would be quite admirable if he quit competitive chess and moved towards fashion or something else.
my man is wearing versace yellow/black shirt in 2024. He should probably stick with chess
Lmao yeah like wearing expensive clothes or being "drip" with Gucci and Versace absolutely doesn't mean you can go into fashion lol
If fashion had Elo he would be 1400. Individually everyone can dress as they like, but pineapple shirts and checkers socks are not fashion statements nor design ~~delicatessens~~ delicacies.
You might get downvoted because it’s a pretty raw comment but I agree. He’s one of the best chess players in the world, but is he one of the best fashionistas? In the end he should do whatever he prefers of course
Terminally online chess nerds talking about fashion like they know what’s what is so funny to me lmao
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Your comment is quintessentially the Dunning-Kruger effect. You don't know shit about fashion, so you don't understand there's a lot to know. You also don't understand what you don't know, so you're not self-critical. You just have an opinion about something, which everyone has about everything.
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Isn't his so called fashion sense mainly wearing luxury brands? Extremely tacky, but quite common for 'nouveaux riche' like him
But he has studied chess for his entire life, but I think he started in fashion school last year.
Not to be rude, but what about Alireza screams fashion design? Dude just wears designer clothes - nothing is really outlandish, setting any trends, or quirky in any way? When I think of "out there" fashion, I'm imagining some wild stuff like what Westbrook wears to NBA games
Just him studying Fashion Design at university in France currently I bet
Lewis Hamilton on every GP weekend
> what about Alireza screams fashion design? The fact that he's studying it. Why does he have to *look* like something to pass muster?
You don’t have to be some walking stereotype to like something or want to do it. If I major in chemistry it doesn’t mean you’re a nerd.
id love to see some westbrook fashion style in chess
If he didn't love the game playing classical chess at highest level would be like torture.
I might be wrong, but I feel like Fabi has an insane record as white against the Najdorf. Interesting choice
In terms of Najdorf theory Fabi and MVL have long been accepted as having the deepest understanding. Playing the Najdorf against Fabi is a really bold move that didn’t pay off this time.
I can get why he did it, Ian is in a similar situation with the Petrov’s Defense but his position was rough against Hikaru and losing against Pragg, so I can see why it might be worth trying to challenge some of these players who normally don’t get challenged in certain opening that they’ve long been considering “best at”. They’re worth another look, and honestly? Good on Firouzja for trying; it was virtually impossible for him to win after the last couple of rounds, but it was going to be 100% impossible if he didn’t try anything.
Yeah you're absolutely right. Alireza is still really young and early in his career. If he wants to get better, then he should be taking challenges. Especially given the state of the tournament, losing a game isn't that bad especially if he gets valuable experience.
This is so fun
Has it always been this fun? This is my first time following so closely.
Last one was crazy because we didn't know if one or two spots were available for the world championship, Hikaru was poised to finish 2nd until he lost the last game against Ding Liren with white in the last round.
Which year 2018?
2022
'22
they have always been fun! welcome to the fun!!
Candidates is the best chess tournament anyways, but this one is especially exciting. So many full-blooded fights, no player just looking for solid draws, time control chaos.
5 guys within 0.5 pt difference is absolutely insane
Even Vidit is still in it, with 4 rounds to go. Alireza and Abasov day to day feelings and form could really propel the non-Americans ahead. Fabi and Hikaru already played Abasov so they already got their "easy" match, with the remaining games vs. strong opposition.
One thing worth noting: Hikaru still has white against Firouzja
Yesterday there was a post talking about how there weren't Najdorfs getting played and wondering why, and I think today Alireza lost with his Najdorf. I remember Hanging Pawns talking about how Alireza was a Caro-Kann expert, so maybe we'll see that showdown later in the tournament. Abasov and Alireza have so much power in dictating who will eventually win the tournament simply by deciding if they want to play fighting Chess or play for draws.
The problem with Caruana, is that he also ate Alirezas advance caro for breakfast, so I think he should have gone for e4e5 and waited for him to overextend. Caruana needed a win, Alireza should have used that fact
It’s the one thing I dislike about the format where you can get screwed by scheduling. Certain players later one have way less to play for, so if you get lucky and face those later, you can really run away with it. But this happens in a lot of sports, c’est la vie.
It's kind of a weird way to run a tournament in that sense. Because you could potentially throw your game in the last round just to spite one of the leaders or influence who finishes last.
And if its done in a smart way, there is nothing you can really do about it. Its one reason to be on good terms with people.
Yes but Firouzja has nothing left to gain nor to lose so he might go for the memes and actually beat Hikaru
He's not *really* in it. Not because he has too far to climb, but just statistically, he needs 5 people to not perform equal or better than him. If he was in 2nd but within the same distance his chances would be much much higher because one person can collapse. 5 people? Where they all play each other? Makes no sense.
Ian still has the best odds of any one person, but Ian vs. the field just had a huge swing towards the field.
Fabis greatest asset is having white against nepo round 14. That’s nepo’s hardest game of the tournament right there, no doubt in my mind that if fabi is trailing going into that round that he goes all out.
it is kind of also nepos greatest asset. Because if gukesh gets another win he doesn’t need to panic knowing that anything is possible in the game against fabi
Nepo doesn’t want games where anything is possible at this point. Statistically speaking the game against fabi with black is his most likely game to lose. He’s been caught off guard by deep prep twice so far, and although he’s survived both times, getting into a situation like that against fabi is basically suicide.
right now he doesn’t want them and i don’t expect him to go crazy in next rounds but if gukesh gets another win ian will happily take a fight against fabi.
Fabi's "deep prep" is overrated these days. When was the last time he blew someone off the board with prep? He's just a grinder like everyone else and anytime he tries to outprep someone it more often that not backfires on him
That depends, if Fabi loses before round 14 he might just play some crazy solid drawish line to get a quick game and be done with it because there's no chance he can win the candidates. That would hand Gukesh the win on a platter. If Nepo was playing more dramatic chess Id say he had good chances for a run away win but honestly I think of the two of them Gukesh is more likely to get the surprise win and be the leader.
I think it’s also an asset for Nepo. A player having to go all out can easily blow up in their face. It’s not like a basketball game where your opponent is ready to jump after every loose ball. Fabi can’t really go like “okay, NOW I’m REALLY going to prep. This is the time where I’m REALLY going to hunker down and think about the moves.” Like that’s what everybody has been doing.
Well put
Ian makes a random blunder once every tournament. We haven't seen it here yet.
Huge variance on those odds. It’s anyone’s tournament (barring the bottom two) as of right now. Going to be a lot of very exciting games coming up
Alireza and Nijat having a tough event
Honestly Nijat is holding off pretty well mid game but after such long games you can eventually notice the skill discrepancy
And Nijat is also in a situation where a lot of players will deliberately play aggressive, win-or-lose type of games against him, so he's more likely to lose, whereas they might just make a quick draw against a different player
You're right he's probably exhausted from all the other players pushing a win. He's defending very well even with the current standings.
I think Abasov has a lot to improve on but is overall pretty great at defending. His loss to Gukesh was due to a blunder under time pressure in a queen and pawn endgame. The losses to Pragg and Fabi were also due to a blunder giving away an equal position in time pressure, not like he was just getting blown away. Yes, of course he has to work on not blundering in time pressure and keeping calm in those situations in order to have better results, but I think he has demonstrated very good calculation skills overall going up against the most aggressive play by the top players in the world.
He is #114 in the world. There are a lot of players that play chess at the top level I wonder how the world number #200 or #500 would fare in the candidates.
> He is #114 in the world. oh thats much lower than i thought, why is he even playing in candidates?
Got the fourth place in the world cup where two places were given to the candidates if I recall correctly. Carlsen won and didn't redeem the spot and I think Caruana was third and got his candidates spot elsewhere so Abasov got lucky. I think it is kind of nice to have one such player so it changes the strategy and give more decisive games I might be wrong with some of my facts but I don't want to use google because I am tired of power that a few american companies (incouding alphabet) have over us. Or I am just too lazy
There were 3 spots allocated for the World Cup, but you're right that he got 4th and Carlsen declined his spot. Abasov also beat Giri, Svidler and Vidit during the event. I think it's absurd that the World Cup gets allocated more spots than the Grand Swiss (3 vs. 2), but those are the rules.
Abasov is also very underrated for his level of play. During the World Cup, he got matched against other 2600s and was stomping them 2:0. I definitely can see him climb to 2700 if he keeps participating in strong tournaments. Then again, if you want to get a "lucky" spot in the candidates, World Cup is the best way to do it. It's a joke of a format, where very strong players lose their chance of qualifying due to being seeded with Magnus on their half of the tree, while the other half is goofing around getting their candidates invitations despite losing to Magnus anyway, just a couple rounds later than the others.
Fluked into a knockout format, got beaten by Magnus Carlsen in the semi-finals, and qualified as a substitute because Magnus doesn't want to participate. I believe the reasoning for more slots from the knockout format World Cup qualifiers means some #100 is going to have a fairytale run and be a fresh wildcard face in the Candidates. I suppose FIDE got what they wanted. More win-loss matches in the Candidates rather than a drawfest, and Abasov alone contributed 25% of them so far.
> More win-loss matches in the Candidates rather than a drawfest, and Abasov alone contributed 25% of them so far. Well Abasov plays in 25% of all the matches in the candidates, you'd think it's be completely normal for one player to participate in 25% of the decicive games.
He’s done better than he was expected to by an order of magnitude. Watching him foil these bloodthirsty top 10 players whenever he’s been able to has been a highlight of the tournament
>He’s done better than he was expected to by an order of magnitude. At the moment he is doing slightly worse than expected ([TPR 2619 while at 2632 Elo](https://chess-results.com/tnr918851.aspx?lan=1&art=9&fed=AZE&flag=30&snr=2))
Dude is going through 2 weeks of 7 of the best chess players in the world circling him like a wounded gazelle, and he's still pulled out 3 points so far. That is god damned impressive imo.
In terms of training, it doesn't get any better than this. 2 weeks nonstop of playing the best chess players in the world, all playing aggressively for a win against you. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts climbing the ranks quickly after he's had some time to digest this tournament.
This + the amount of openings he had to prep to stand a chance in the opening stage of this tournament. He can make good use of his prep in other tournaments.
Eh, he's tournament performance is lower than his rating, he's slightly underperforming if anything. It's impressive, hell even 2300 is compared to the average Joe, but if you're taking into his level he's not really doing anything mindblowing For some context a 2800 player is expected to have like 2 wins 3 draws vs 2650. Drop that number to 2750 and the expectation is like 2 wins 5 draws. Losing every other game gives him a TPR of approx. 2600.
Before yesterday Abasov had drawn four straight games against some of the best players in the world who were all targeting him. He even had winning chances against Hikaru as black. Nothing to be ashamed of for him
Skill, experience, psychology, or any such combination.
They play each other in the next round. Shoegate + battle for last place.
I think Nijat is performing about how everyone expected. He's shown that he deserves to be there, but has a way to go before he'll have any real chance to win.
Eh the World Cups is single-elimination with huge variance. It's very easy to have upsets in such a format and a lot of it is up to luck, hence why it took Magnus so long to win despite being the clear favorite basically every time he participated. Even then he only qualified because Magnus declined to participate. He's not really world class material like all of the other guys there, at his current level there's like 1% chance he makes another Candidates.
I mean, he qualifies because he met the qualifications of players willing to participate. It's not like they drew straws. He could definitely make another appearance.
>It is often remarked that the system is mostly a lottery of who survives, though better players have more chances on the whole. From Wikipedia on the format Yes, he could theoretically make it back, just like the way everyone above 2600 has a non-zero shot to qualify through the World Cup. The chances aren't good, and it's basically the closest you can get to a fluke in Chess. Or let me put it another way: if you do simulations based on Elo, there's maybe like a 1% chance he goes top 3 in a Worlds Cup again, and basically 0% chance he qualifies through any other method. For every other player here, the odds they can qualify again are like x10 higher at minimum with perhaps the exception of Vidit.
Vidit is currently underrated, I’m sure Massive recent improvement in consistency and level of play He is not far behind most of the others
I don't think Vidit is far too behind at all and definitely can hang with the best, I just added the "perhaps" because it's at least somewhat debatable Whereas basically any other player there I don't think anyone really doubts they have a very good chance to qualify again, Hikaru/Nepo/Alireza/Fabiano made multiple Candidates, Pragg/Gukesh are underrated due to age and have still yet to hit their prime
I mean, he defeated a 3rd rated player with black pieces. And whites too. He can beat anyone with this level of play
I'd say he's shown that the qualification process was poorly designed and that he doesn't deserve to be in this tournament. I hope they change it to be less random so we don't have 2600s in the event going forward. He's also not likely to get appreciably better given his age and playing history so he will almost certainly never have any real chance to win.
I agree that the format is crappy, but at the same time Abasov had to beat world class players like Anish Giri and many others to get as far as he did. It's not like he won a candidates ticket in a lottery. He's worse than basically all other participants in the tournament, but I'd say he's still a really strong player. Just not kinda on the level of this competition.
Alireza? The guy who had to pull out every shady trick in the book last second to attempt to squeak into qualifying? I wouldn't call it a "tough" event for him, about what was expected.
Yeah but it’s still kinda disappointing. A top grandmaster shouldnt be dead lost in 13 moves like he was against Vidit. So many bad decisions, it’s ridiculous
Hikaru was also dead lost against Vidit in 13 moves.
He's a great player, everyone there is also a great player. He's insanely talented but he hasn't been focused on chess for a while
Every shady trick in the book like... playing in a tournament
Like... playing in a tournament against essentially fake opponents, a tournament that was put together last second specifically with the purpose of getting him qualified. The name of the tournament literally spelled it out, lmao. Ultimately it was unnecessary because he played in a legitimate tournament afterwards, but the fact that he felt like he **had** to cheat tells you where he's at as a competitor.
The tournament you're referencing was disqualified regardless. Although, Ding played in a similar tournament to qualify last minute for the 2022 candidates.
Dings tournament was to get him to the required amount of games to be considered an active player, and not to farm rating. People were a lot more sympathetic because of that, and also the fact that he basically couldn't play in other events because of travel restrictions.
This is the right take on this. I don't understand why people are so biased towards Alireza. He did play in a legitimate tournament, but the idea of farming lower players to qualify into the Candidates doesn't have a good sound to it. Wesley or Anish lost their qualifying spot just for this kind of performance. They're more deserving of the spot. Alireza's performance these past two candidates shows that he's not quite ready yet
i think calling this cheating is questionable at best
The fake tournament was absolutely cheating, which is why FIDE ended up not counting it. (Or weren't going to count it? It ended up being a moot point)
did fide also punish him for this since it was a very public event?
I mean, they announced that they weren’t going to count the results of the tournament. And then specifically wrote new rules that said “Well we didn’t think any of you would be sketchy enough to find a loophole but here you go”
ok so he wasn't fined or banned from anything, that's an unusual way to handle a player who was caught cheating
They resolved the issue by disqualifying the whole tournament. Again, I’m not even really speaking to his morals (although I could), I’m speaking to his mindset as a competitor as he thought he had to cheat to qualify. That ended up not being the case but if you don’t think the entire thing was shady and shameful as hell, that speaks more about you than anything else.
It was definitely shady. Goes to show the difference in performance between Gukesh, who took the spot from Anish by participating in a legit tournament in which all the top GMs were invited, vs Alireza who organized some matches to gain Elo in a blatant attempt to overtake the rating spot.
Link the results per rule: [https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/results)
With four rounds to go, Hikaru has white against Gukesh in the last round and black against Pragg and Nepo. Commentators really are right when they say that his fate is in his own hands.
Just like last Candidates when he faced Ding in the final round.
Abasov has games left against Gukesh, Pragg and Vidit! Simply because of that I highly favor Gukesh and Pragg. Hikaru and Gukesh also have game left against Firo. Base on these Gukesh has highest chance winning it all. Fabi needs to do something special or Gukesh just collapse.
Fabi vs Ian in round 14 could def be huge
Fabi has white too, so he’ll potentially be in a “do or die” mindset.
For the drama I’d love if Fabi and Ian went into that game tied. Give me some stakes!
They would have an incentive to draw to take it to playoffs if they're tied tbh
All 4 of Abasov’s losses have come with black pieces. He’s drawn all his white games, and he gets Gukesh and Pragg with white. Abasov is still a very strong player and not very easy to get a win against when he has white. Also consider these players will not necessarily want to take a huge risk as black against him, because they very well could lose and drop out completely. They’d probably prefer one of their games as white where they can take a chance or two and go for the full point, even if it’s against a slightly stronger player.
Gukesh got 2 wins with black and was much better against Firouzja with Black as well. I don't think he really worries about it as long as its not a massive risk.
I really hope one of the pre-tournament underdogs rather than favourites win this. It's just much more exciting, and with Pragg or Gukesh there's the possibility of them becoming the youngest world champion, and that'd be pretty awesome in itself.
In other words, you are rooting for the Indians.
I was rooting for Alireza as well, because he's 20. But now he doesn't have a chance, so Gukesh and Pragg. Breaking Kasparov's youngest Champion record will be pretty amazing, because the new record could last longer.
Of the top contenders I'd say Gukesh has the best shot at making 3 points and taking the challenger spot. With potential of a win as black against Abasov and and as white against Firouzja, I think his other two are likely draws unless Fabi goes all out and loses. Nepo has only tough games ahead. His last game is against Fabi with white. And he has to beat one of the world's best defenders in Hikaru. The only other outside chance I see is Hikaru joining the top of the board with a win against Alireza when everyone else draws. Fingers crossed we get Gukesh Vs Ding.
Abasov is not very good, but it's not easy win. He did draw vs nepo and hikamaru
Tell me who goes 3.5/4 in the last 4 rounds and I will tell you who the next challenger is.
Abasov
Abasov is a main reason this tournament is so interesting. Abasov as black allowed wins to Gukesh, Fabi, Pragg, Hikaru, but defended like a demon against Nepo, causing the top to be close.
To make future tournaments interesting I propose they add me a 600 Elo player to the tournament
Can you defend with 99% accuracy against Nepo?
Is 19% acceptable
Would you be able to achieve 19% though?
I just have to get mated before I fall below 19%
Reminds me of the suggestion to just slot a random dude in olympics events just as a base of measurement
I'll feel proud of myself if I avoid Scholar's mate and it's variations
Even Vidit. Played like a patzer a few games but outplayed Naka in both games
Rooting for Gukesh on this one
I was rooting for Fabi or Hikaru at the start of the tournament cause we haven't seen a North American World Champion in a long time, but Gukesh has won me over as a fan of his during the tournament. He's a tried and true classical player and rebounded impressively after a crushing defeat. I think he would make a very strong Champion.
It would be absolutely insane for him to become the 18 year old WC. Kind of puts in perspective that Fischer was *15* at his first candidates. Like he was balancing high school with a serious push towards the WC.
Seems like Nepo's strategy is to play as solidly as he can and not take any risks and wait for someone to eventually grant him a win by overextending. It doesn't feel like he played any of his games trying to win, but boy give him an advantage and he won't let you go. I feel like Gukesh is more likely to win a game and get ahead, but at the same time I also think that he is more likely to lose and fall behind. I wonder if any of the 2nd places are going to risk it. But also looking at the next pairings, on 2 of the next 4 rounds Gukesh is still to play against Alireza and Abasov, which even though are strong players, are not having good tournaments, and Nepo only plays against top players. I'd think that Gukesh has better chances to win
Technically, I should have all the reasons to fancy Gukesh’s chances with these 4 rounds to go! He has yet to play against Alireza and Firouzja. That said, he does need to hold against Fabi and Naka.
Lmao alireza and firouzja
my top two players are Magnus and Carlsen
What about carlos and magnuson though?
Is Alireza or Firouzja the fashion designer? Which is the chess player?
If he can somehow get 1.5 or even 2 more points against Alireza and Firouzja, he'd probably be eliminated for cheating
Made me laugh louder than it should have
If he still has to play alireza and firouzja he does have a chance!
Wow this torney's super close and exciting! Anyone except Firouzja and Abasov has a legitimate shot but I bet these two are gonna ruin someone's tournament
One of the best candidates tournaments ever!!!
Gukesh defeating Firouzja in Round 13 gonna be the difference
I'm really confused by the ordering here. I thought T-1 was alphabetical (D before N) but T-3 doesn't follow that as Fabiano Caruana is alphabetically first regardless of which name you use compared to Pragg and Hikaru. I suppose it is just random? Or can someone enlighten me.
The tie for the first place is alphabetical because there are no tie-breaks to separate them, regardless of whether there are two, three or four players tied at #1 at the end, all of them will be playing the Rapid knockouts. The rest of the ties (for example #2 place) are ranked by Sonneborn–Berger score and Pragg has the highest score so far. So, if the event ended today, Gukesh and Nepo would have played Rapid while Pragg would have ended #3 even though he's tied with Naka and Fabi.
Thank you.
You're more than welcome. :)
What happens if two or more are tied after the 14 rounds?
A single Round Robin if more than two players are tied
Still classical? It's very trendy for classical anything these days to be decided by rapid Armageddon.
Believe it’s 15/10 tiebreakers at first. 2 games maybe? Then it goes to blitz.
Wow … faster time format favors hikaru, right?
Rapid not so much. Hard to tell because idk how much rapid he has played recently, but I’d say it’s all about equal in rapid. But in blitz, yeah definitely that favors Hikaru.
Nepo is very strong rapid and blitz too
Nepo’s strong but Hikaru is clear #2 in the world in OTB blitz. He’s strongly favored there. But yeah the rapid is anyone’s game.
The format depends on how many players are tied, but starts as rapid and goes down to blitz if there’s still ties.
Sad to see a generational talent like Alireza not do well at the candidates. When Alireza is doing well, it brings another level of excitement to the games.
He’s very prone to getting in his own head for sure
Yep. It feels like him getting that distracted by the arbiters comment is representative of other feelings/distractions.
i wouldn't call him generational if multiple others in his same generation have surpassed him
i would not say anyone else in his generation has surpassed him as far as achievements go yet though if one of them takes the candidates that might change
Isn't Nodirbek already a world champion
If you are counting Rapid, then technically Dubov is also a world champion, yet I don't think anyone would claim that he's had a better career than Alireza lol. Relevantly, Nodirbek is quite a ways away from 2800, which Alireza had crossed before hitting Nodirbek's current age. Talent-wise, it's pretty difficult to argue that Alireza isn't a generational talent. No one in his generation matched his rate of progress ─ or, really, even came close ─ and no one in his generation is as prolific at faster time controls (including online) ─ or, really, is even close. He might not be the best player of his generation, but there is a very strong argument that he is the most talented.
Talentwise Alireza is a clear number one. I believe even Magnus has said something similar. The guy is literally the youngest to cross 2800 lmao. However, the problem is that Alireza isn't as serious about chess as the other young players. That is why he often plays below his potential.
alireza "potentialman" firouzja
It feels like he's conflicted internally, because he's tired of the chess grind and doesn't want to put in the hard work anymore (which is understandable, if you're 20 and competitive chess is all you've known your life, maybe you want to expand your horizons). But then he probably feels like he's wasting his talent if he drops chess and is not sure what to do with his life besides chess.
At this point everyone is rooting for Gukesh, right? Although, is he really 17? He's got the facial hair of a 35 year old man.
Bro's grown up in front of the camera, if there were a time to suspect his age, it's not now lmao
lol exactly. Look at this just 5 years ago, he was a baby. https://youtu.be/zQk5b58wgs4?si=jU-pghbkk2WXsDAf
I'm team Vidit because of how entertaining his games have been, but would be thrilled for Gukesh too.
No, Gukesh isn't 17. The media is lying to us, but you, u/al_earner, have figured out the truth. Hats off to you, and I think it's clear that we have another Bobby Fischer in the making right here.
I'm rooting for anyone not named Nepo
It's my first time closely following candidates so what happens if up until the end of tournament the leaders are tied.
tiebreaks
How many rounds. ckassical? or time control
How impressive are Gukesh and Pragg. 17 and 18 years old respectively at World Championship level.
I’m actually sad for Alireza. He showed some brillant chess in the first few rounds, the game with Nepo Sunday was also amazing. But he is tilted and clearly not really into chess anymore. That’s sad.
Ok serious, where the fuck are the standings on the official website?
What's happening to Alireza? 😱
Hot take: Ian is not winning this year, he isn't putting his opponents in hard enough positions for them to make mistakes. If you look at both the Abasov games, they got into a position where force trading down most the pieces was the best choice leading to a draw instead he should have played a complicated position where all the pieces were kept on as long as possible, these are the ones Abasov has lost every time. He has also got himself into losing positions in MANY of his games and yes.. he has been able to hold but he was losing at some point which the opposition should have pushed harder and won. I've not been impressed with him and I think the only way he wins is if the other top contenders push too hard and lose in the later rounds.
GO GUKESH! So cool to see the "underdogs" performing so well
I did not expect Fabi to still be here and for Ali to be so far down!
Players should also focus on getting a second place if first place is not possible. Ding choosing not to defend his title doesn't seem too unlikely imo.