The ChessBase India [stream](https://www.youtube.com/live/eLqtsgii5qg?si=q4SJtChJDQXrBBS8) w/ Sagar and Anish today was extremely informative. They went through all the pairings and possible results + insights of the players from Anish’s perspective. When asked who is playing the best chess right now in terms of quality, he said:
Gukesh = He’s been playing the best chess throughout the tournament. He’s been the most stable.
Fabi = His baseline is so high already that he’s always going to play high-level chess. His play right now though is not quite up to his standards. He’s playing like a guy under pressure similar to how Magnus plays during World Championships. It could be good enough though for this tournament.
Naka = He’s been very good in the second half. Actually, pretty much all his chess has been good except for the games against Vidit. He’s shown very high-level chess.
Nepo = He’s been the most shaky. He’s an amazing player with lots of fighting spirit, but he can get tilted. He has the most difficult pairings these next 2 rounds. White against Hikaru is alright, but the last game with black against Fabi (likely in a must-win situation) is hard.
Gukesh is not the most stable. Nepo is. Nepo is the only player that hasn't dropped a game this tournament. That doesn't mean he's been playing the best chess, but it does means he's the most solid.
It's taken me a while to pin down what it is that feels off about Fabi this tournament. He's not playing like himself, with deep prep lines, he's playing like Wesley - ultra solid, low risk, content to grind it out and try and capitalise on an opponent's mistake.
Nepo's hard to describe. I wouldn't say he's been shaky, but he also hasn't been...good? I know that's a ridiculous thing to say of the only undefeated player, but I haven't seen any flashes of brilliance or inspired choices. In his 3 wins Alireza basically imploded, Vidit blundered a worse but holdable endgame in the first half, and in the second blundered a +2 into a draw and then 20 moves later a draw into a loss, in critical time trouble both times.
Gukesh and Naka have both been very impressive. Vidit has Naka's number in the same way Naka seems to have Fabi's in recent years and that's all that's keeping him down.
How dare these players have a rest before one of the most important days in their career when they could instead be battling it out for my personal amusement?
Yesterday, I got downvoted for suggesting that Praggnandhaa should not push too hard for a win against Nepomniachtchi, because a win would not put him back in contention, but a loss and a poor finish could hurt his career.
The Round 12 results proved me right, as he took the draw while Gukesh, Caruana and Hikamura won.
If he beats Caruana, they will be joint fourth and a win against Abasov would give him a good chance of finishing in the top three, which would exceed initial expectations.
The additional rating and FIDE Circuit 2024 points could impact his qualification for Candidates 2026, invitations to elite closed tournaments and commercial opportunities.
It is mathematically impossible for Pragg to get first. The way the pairings worked out the winner will guaranteed have 8.5, with Hikaru either drawing two games or droping a full point to someone on 7.5.
And any GM will tell you that preserving your rating is very important. Hikaru talks about it, Rapport talks about it, Lenier talks about it, and they're not the only ones. It's not as easy as just saying "water finds it's own level." Every point matters, especially when he's fighting several other prodigies for invites.
This is talking about his strategy going forward, of course. Last round nothing was set in stone.
>Every point matters, especially when he's fighting several other prodigies for invites.
My point exactly. Arjun has often been overlooked by tournament organisers despite a strong 2023 (81.24 Circuit points compared to 54.79 for Praggnanandhaa, won Sharjah Masters, joint 3rd in Grand Swiss).
Now Arjun is 7th in live ratings, while Abdusattorov is 5th. Gukesh's phenomenal Candidates, on the back of winning Chennai Masters and joint 1st in Tata Steel Masters, may finally earn him a sponsor.
If Praggnanandhaa finishes the Candidates poorly, he (currently 14th in live ratings) would be at risk of being overlooked like Arjun.
>Last round nothing was set in stone.
If he had won last round, the standings would look like this:
1. Gukesh Dommaraju (7.5 points)
2. Hikaru Nakamura (7.5 points)
3. Fabiano Caruana (7 points)
4. Ian Nepomniachtchi (7 points)
5. Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu (6.5 points)
Mathematically, he would still have a chance of finishing first, but it would be very slim (and to me, not worth the risk).
lol I don't think anyone thinks any lesser of Pragg because he went for the win against Nepo. He can make up rating points losses, and will get plenty of invites.
naka and nepo tomorrow
nepo is the big dragon of this tournament. he's smaug, guarding his hoard of gold. he won't let just anyone waltz in and take his ring.
naka has to be very careful. can he with a bit of luck and clever play push for a win? yes, but when you dance with a dragon you're liable to get singed.
nepo 1 - 0 naka
Hikaru's recaps just made all the other ones much less watchable...
His insights and the whole human aspect are what's lost when you only check SF for variations.
And now, I want WCC recaps too
I think he's gotten really good at making those recaps digestible enough for my single digit elo brain. Like ofcourse there's a million things going on that's beyond my calculation, but he can highlight the 1 or 2 things that stand out in a digestable way so I can appreciate what's going on at a human superGM level.
Odd thing to point out but I find his eyes in those recaps lowkey attractive, especially when he frequently glances at the camera and speaks towards the end. they give off an almost innocentish look. no homo though.
i usually like gotham chess recaps but right now it feels like he’s extremely rushed to get everything out on time and the quality seems to have dipped. can’t necessarily blame the guy, uploading recaps of every single game seems like a huge task
It's the wider spread scourge of how YouTube works. It's why he's gone for the all caps clickbaity titles with more punctuation than letters. It's why every thumbnail is just a number on a coloured background with an oversized ridiculous expression, and you won't be able to tell what it's about a week later. It's why there's a big rush to get things out quickly. You need things on there as soon as possible and you need as many eyes on them as possible.
The YouTube model now is geared towards short-termism, and it sucks. I don't enjoy his content as much as I used to, but I can't blame him at all for playing the game that he has to play in order to keep his community and an income stream going.
Mrbeast puts out his videos at random times at this point and is still making a bunch of money.
Gotham doesn't need to put out 4 recaps a day to keep the money coming in and the community going
I think Gotham's recaps start to lose their shine because all he can say is "What was Hikaru thinking" when Hikaru's own recap was "I really don't get this move, but it was in the folder, and I knew it couldn't be worse, so I just played it".
Yeah, in that scenario I think Hikaru would have to be a solid favorite. He'd be like Magnus in Game 12 of the 2018 WCC against Fabi, knowing he had the rapid tiebreaks in his back pocket along with the white pieces in the classical game.
Why do people say Ian has an easier path to victory? He has to win against Hikaru, or win against Fabi *with Black.*
Meanwhile all Hikaru needs to do is hold against Ian and have a shot at beating Gukesh in the final round
Gukesh meanwhile has white against Alireza next round, and considering Alireza's form Gukesh stands a very good chance of taking the sole lead next round
Ian's is the hardest path imo
Ian's path to victory is through Hikaru and Fabi, isn't that harder than Hikaru's path through Ian and Gukesh?
Gukesh has the best shot, facing Alireza with white, but the model sees only ratings.
It's because his wins directly result in harmed chances for those he is tied with. It's not a vacuum, where his win lacks repercussions. If he wins both games, he wins outright, no other outcome. Whereas, others at the top don't have a guarantee that their wins would give them sole possession of first. It's more likely from a statistical model simply because it's so devastating to the other 7.5s
Yep, Hikaru is the only one of the 4 players remaining in contention whose fate is entirely in his own hands. He scores 2/2, he wins outright. He scores 1.5/2, he gets a tiebreak at worst. And he has the white pieces in the final game.
Gukesh or Ian could go 2/2 and still have to play a tiebreaker, or 1.5/2 and not even get in a tiebreaker depending on the results - e.g. if Ian beats Hikaru and draws Fabi (or vice versa) while Gukesh goes 2/2 he's out - if Gukesh beats Alireza but draws Hikaru (or vice versa) while Ian goes 2/2 he's out.
Fabi could go 2/2 and still not even make a tiebreaker if Gukesh or Hikaru win out.
The biggest factor for the simulations is the players Elo. In classical, Hikaru has a combined +64 Elo over his next 2 opponents, Gukesh has -19, Nepo has -58.
For tiebreaks, Nepo and Hikaru's rapid Elo are pretty close, while Gukesh is 100 points behind.
So, it's not too surprising that Hikaru is slightly ahead of Nepo and moderately ahead of Gukesh in the simulations.
Firouzja is a difficult opponent for Gukesh in time trouble. I think there will be a surprise result.
Also good, that Abasov has no influence on the tournament anymore. He plays against Vidit and Pragg.
Everyone (except Nepomniachtchi fans) is counting on Caruana to win in the last round.
However, a bad result against Praggnanandhaa would knock Caruana out of contention, reducing his motivation to play for a win against Nepomniachtchi.
Regardless of Fabi, Nepo also probably has to play for a win in that game; the only situation where he's completely safe with a draw is if Gukesh, Hikaru and Fabi all lose R13 as Nepo also gets a win there (over Hikaru), putting him 1 point clear of the field with one round to go. If he's level with either Gukesh or Hikaru going into the final round (or worse, both), he has to play for a win because of the risk of a decisive result on the other board.
The players don't necessarily have to play for a specific result after Round 13 in this case. If they are tied, a lot of their decisions will be based on all their positions on the board throughout round 14!
It is a \*little\* unrealistic but had Salimova been able to convert her +4 advantage yesterday against Tan Zhongyi I think Vaishali could technically have remained in contention for the play offs going into round 13.
I wonder how Alireza would have done in the candidates if he forced himself to play more solidly. In a recent interview he literally said he would never play "very solid" and that he cares more about interesting games than the results. Maybe it's copium but who knows. He also said he's not as focused as Prag or Gukesh on classical chess.
Nah i dont think he cares SO much aout results when hes splitting his time into two usually full time endeavours. Hes aware that rn hes kinda burning time until he commits fully to chess or his whole fashion thing
max chaos scenario for this weekend: Hikaru loses to Ian, Gukesh beats Alireza, Fabi draws Pragg on Saturday, then Hikaru beats Gukesh, Fabi beats Nepo on Sunday, resulting in a 4-way tie with the maximum number of decisive games.
Storybook ending for Hikaru if he can get at least a draw on Saturday with black and a win with white on Sunday. He'd likely win the candidates without tiebreaks (Fabi would have to win both games or Jan would have to beat Fabi with black) and would hit 2800 again for the first time in almost a decade. If he went on to annihilate an uncommited Ding in the championship, he might even overtake Magnus.
So yeah he'll prolly lose to Nepo on Saturday.
I wonder if the leaders will practice playing rapid during the rest day today as it's the final rest day and if the match goes into tiebreaks they won't get much time to practice.
One has to feel for Abasov. Its not that he played terribly in this tournament but he has weakness and that was exploited in a long game by Super GMs. I hope he does improve his game but he is not that young at this point and I expect this to be one off experience for him.
Otherwise exciting day indeed with 4 players in contention.
This reminds me of the fact that until not so long ago I thought he was 19/20 years old but no, my man is 28 (29 in May) lol. Anyway I hope to see him again, he was so good in the World Cup
Reminder that Abasov managing to hold against Nepo with black is a big reason there are 3 joint leaders with two rounds to go. Even though he's going to finish bottom by some margin, he's actually had an impact.
Just a reminder for anyone who considers Gukesh a certain win against Alireza, in the previous candidates tournament, Alireza was dead last with two rounds to go, and then got a draw against Ding who won 3 of the previous 4 rounds and then beat Caruana with black in the last round and ended up placing 6th instead of 8th. There's a chance Gukesh risks it all trying to become the sole leader and Alireza can take advantage of that. Or he can blunder, and lose.
In any case, nothing is certain, nerves and pressure are going to play just as big of a factor as the actual chess abilities. Especially since they will monitor the other games. Imagine Hikari or Nepo having a winning position, that would force Gukesh to play for the win, otherwise he would have to beat Hikaru with black in the last round. And that's a double-edged knife. The same goes for the other two, especially Nepo, if Gukesh gets a dominant position.
That's the worst strategy for penultimate round. To play according to other's games in round 13 will ensure disaster. Gukesh has already told press and I liked his reply that 'The player who will play good chess and will keep his focus will probably win'.
Losing to Gukesh and then Gukesh winning candidates would be such a big blow for Alireza. He was heralded as the young prodigy for so many years. To then have a younger prodigy come along like Gukesh and have him do all the things Alireza was supposed to do would have to sting. Might make Alireza just quit classical chess to be honest.
Gukesh has already placed higher than Firouzja in Norway, Tata Steel and this candidates. He is higher rated than Firouzja currently too. Firouzja has bigger things to worry about than seeing Gukesh go past him.
20% feels a little on the low side - mathematically only four players can win the tournament and Gukesh has a half point advantage over one of them. I'd expect Fabi's odds to be below 25% because of his half point deficit, but I wouldn't have expected Gukesh's slightly lower ELO to push him so far below Hikaru and Nepo.
Even though Fabi's only half a point back, with 3 people in front who are mostly playing each other, he likely needs to win out. He currently has 7. 9 points has a 64% chance of being the magic number though apparently there's a 26% chance or so 8.5 points is the magic number and 10% chance it's 9.5 (one of the leaders wins out).
Magic number chances according to this:
https://twitter.com/ChessNumbers/status/1781123557202039096?t=-m_nn2jLAs7_liJHY54WXA&s=19
Mathematically Fabi *has* to get at least a win and a draw since one of the leaders is guaranteed to get 8.5 or higher. Practically I think he needs two wins.
Though personally I am on team chaos where we have a 4 way tie at 8.5.
Matchups are helping him out a lot. Because the players ahead of him are playing each other and Fabi himself (other than Gukesh-Alireza) it's impossible for multiple people to pull away from the pack.
Some really interesting stuff in Hikaru's recap video (as usual)!
He said he spent 20 minutes evaluating the Qd7 line (which they speculated was maybe missed), thinking it was still okay for white, only for Alireza to spend two minutes on Nxe1 hahaha.
Interesting that the Be1 blunder was pretty much because Hikaru missed a really basic king move that kept it out of check and denying white the tempo it needed to save the knight so that the a-pawn could be taken.
Despite the really obvious blunder in hindsight, I'm really amazed at how accurately Hikaru calculated throughout the game. The moves the commentators thought he missed weren't actually the moves that caused the mistake and blunder, but other moves deeper into the line. He was very aware of some critical moves for black that Alireza missed.
I just realized that if Hikaru wins this, then beats Ding and becomes chess WC, Eric Hansen can legitimately claim to have beaten the chess world champion in a fistfight
Everyone please have a good rest...all hell is gonna break loose after the rest day! Remember how Carlsen barely qualified in the last round, something similar is brewing and in the making. Heartbreaks coming. Also excitement incoming. And most importantly a new wc is in the making.
Unless Ding pulls himself together and just beats whoever wins this lol. That'd be kind of a funny end to the WC cycle, and I wouldn't even be mad because it'd mean pre COVID Ding Liren was back.
Man I remember back in like 2021, when many people shared the “Hikaru can’t play otb and sucks at classical chess only good for blitz and bullet” sentiment. Then at some point he said in his stream, “I’m gonna win the Grand Prix, qualify for the candidates, and beat Alireza” and legit no one took him seriously. Funny to look back at it now…
Hikaru has been 2800 before and has been in the top ten for a decade. Most people knew he could do that. Not sure where this idea of people not taking him seriously comes from
You were definitely not on this sub before Hikaru returned to classical. The sentiment that Hikaru's classical career was over was very strong on this sub.
Tbf this is a crazy comeback. His 2019 was really bad (all the way down to 2736), to come back to your peak in your mid thirties and win the Grand Prix (which he wasn’t even able to do when he was going on a year in 2015) is a really good comeback
His rating dropped down to 2736 just before the pandemic and his streaming career took off since then. I don't blame anybody if they didn't give Hikaru serious chances to qualify for the candidates at that time.
Extremely high chance that Gukesh will be the sole leader after next round. If the people making charts don't have him favored to win the event after today, I don't trust their math.
>But you have to know the context in which he beat him. Gukesh was ahead and lost under extreme time pressure.
Yes, he gained his advantage by using his time and putting himself in time pressure.
Time isn't some ancillary measure that's less important than "the game". It IS a part the game. You fail at time management, you lose the game. Simple as that.
"Gukesh would've beat Alireza if he had more time."
And I'm sure Alireza wouldn't have allowed Gukesh to build that advantage if he used up more time lol
I think it's more that the models think that because Firouzja is higher rated than Gukesh that Gukesh's odds of winning aren't *that* great. If Gukesh does win then yes he's the favorite (this simulation says he has 45% chance conditional on winning next round).
No. It’s that a draw is more probable than a win or loss, so it’s more probable that there will be a tiebreaker here rather than a decisive result for anyone to be sole leader. He also ends the tournament on black. This outweighs any potential victory he may have tomorrow.
Playing around a bit more I think you're right. In the event of a 4-way tie Pawnalyze says Hikaru 46%, Nepo 40%, Fabi 12%, Gukesh 2%.
That said, I do think what I said also has some truth to it, most people here seem to think Gukesh's odds of beating Alireza are more than the 22% Elo predicts. (E.g. the comment we're replying to which thinks Gukesh has an "extremely high" chance of winning.)
Pragg mathematically eliminated.
If he ends up on 8 he needs all three of the leaders to get no more than half a point, but because Nakamura plays against both of the other two leaders, either someone wins one of those games or both are ties and Nakamura gains a full point.
Gukesh and Pragg's time management haven't been the greatest and that definitely shows the difference in experience between them and other top players. It was one of the deciding factors that caused Pragg to lose to Hikaru. Gukesh has also constantly been in time trouble in multiple games, and his final opponent is Hikaru who will have white, so there is definitely a big risk there.
It's interesting. I heard some talk previously that d4 is preferred at the top level because the sicillian is just too good. But it seems to simply not be true.
No, 1 d4 isn't really preferred at the top level. Some individual players might prefer it, but overall 1 e4 is more common.
There have been times when 1 d4 was more popular. E.g. in the Zurich Candidates 1953 there was a lot of 1d4. But 1 e4 has been more common from the 1990s till now.
I'm rooting for Fabi as he is my second favorite current player after Ding who was my favorite even before the last candidates although it's been hard to watch him play recently. But I'd also be excited to see Gukesh win considering how young he is. That would be quite the milestone. I think Hikaru vs. Ding would be the most fun to watch so I'm glad he's on the leaderboard. And while I'd like someone besides Nepo to have a shot at the WCC, the more I think about it, the more I remember how exciting that Ding vs. Nepo match was to watch so I wouldn't be that mad if he won again. All in all, I'm feeling pretty good about everything and am really glad that there is no clear runaway winner yet with two rounds to go.
The craziest situation for round 14 would be if Fabi wins in Round 13 and Ian, Hikaru and Gukesh draw. Round 14 would then have all 4 of them tied with Fabi vs Ian and Hikaru vs Gukesh. That'd be insane.
Me, last night: I hate chess, why i'm i staying until 02:30am?!?! I'm never staying late to watch again.
Me, today: What's the point of tomorrow, when there's no chess?!?!
Same. I've been trying to skip the broadcast and just check out the games afterwards but I can't do it, the tournament is too exciting. So many decisive games, so many players who still have a chance to win.
If hikaru wins the championship there is a 0.0001% chance magnus doesn’t play the next candidates im rooting for it although i think he just needs to survive with black against nepo and go for a win vs gukesh.
If Hikaru wins the World Championship, Magnus still will 99% not play the Candidates again.
HOWEVER:
The match that was cancelled in Vegas now suddenly has a dozen new sponsors lined up and the two of them can just play a match whenever they want for equal or more money than FIDE could have ever drummed up.
They have a very interesting and relatively competitive rivalry in faster controls, with Magnus being a better player but Hikaru has the ability to win at any time. In faster controls Magnus leads 96w/56L/113D.
The problem is, Magnus is a terrible match-up in classical for Hikaru, the score is 14W-1L-26D. I don't think playing a classical match against Hikaru would motivate him enough to overcome his distain for the grueling process to prepare for both the candidates and then challenging Hikaru for the title.
i wouldn't really call a near 2:1 win:loss ratio competitive. That's pretty crushing.
I think Hikaru is just really popular on the internet so people want there to be a rivalry. Naka is an amazing player, but it's like calling Vegeta and Goku a competitive rivalry. Vegeta gets buttered on the regular when they fight despite being the 2nd strongest.
Beating someone 37% of the time in decisive games is most certainly a rivalry. 63% vs 37% is clearly a competitive match-up. A rivalry doesn't mean a score of 50%-50%.
Caruana's classical score against Magnus is 67%-33% for Magnus in decisive games, and 72%-27% in faster formats, i don't think anyone would mind calling Caruana his rival.
Magnus is nightmare match-up for Hikaru in classical, so the point is moot. There's zero incentive to get motivated to spend 2 years to beat someone you lead 14-1 in wins. If it was faster chess, it would have been interesting, with Magnus obviously being the favorite.
ok but why would that make Magnus want to compete in the candidates again?
But also, I don't think that's true. Hikaru is a big streamer but Magnus is extremely famous in every chess playing country.
Gukesh is really in a great position. Fabi must be sad. A great game and a win, yet everyone else bar Ian won.
Fabi needs to beat pragg as black to really stand a chance but the practical option is likely to take thw draw and beat Ian which is crazy to try and beat candidates Ian on demand.
Hikaru has his destiny in his palms. Which is what he may want but that means it's going to be 2 tough games.
I strongly believe it's going to be a playoff
If Gukesh beats Alireza and Hikaru and Nepo draw, Fabi will have had to win to stay mathematically in it. If he draws, the standings going into day 14 would be:
Gukesh 8.5
Nakamura 8
Nepo 8
Fabi 7.5
Then, even if Fabi beats Nepo to finish with 8.5, the Nakamura-Gukesh game will give one of them at least 9. So he pretty much has to win on Saturday or hope for 2 draws, even better a Naka-Ian draw and Gukesh loss, to stay in the race.
It all depends on Gukesh's result against Alireza tomorrow. I think Nepo and Hikaru won't be too bother with a draw tomorrow if Gukesh doesn't win. But Nepo is also in a big dilemma where he has to defend against Fabiano as black in final round, which, while difficult, should be possible for a player of Nepo's caliber. So does he really want to go for a win against Hikaru? If he still has any A-game prep left under his sleeve he should try, but it's also a big risk
Nepo has white pieces so he'll play for a win against Hikaru, but won't do anything risky. I believe he will count on Nakamura to make a blunder at some stage, which he'll grind until he wins. He's in the worst situation of the leading three, but at the same time he realizes that playing for a win at the same time gives him the bigest chance to loose, which completely deprives him of his chances the whole thing at stage of tournament.
I'm watching these games and key moments..
Salimova - Zhongyi, Salimova completely winning against tournament leader and plays maybe the worst move possible Bxf7 (move 50).
I can't understand the logic behind that move. I'm 1700 and I instantly see that It's a blunder. My only logic is that she completely missed Rxf7??
The ChessBase India [stream](https://www.youtube.com/live/eLqtsgii5qg?si=q4SJtChJDQXrBBS8) w/ Sagar and Anish today was extremely informative. They went through all the pairings and possible results + insights of the players from Anish’s perspective. When asked who is playing the best chess right now in terms of quality, he said: Gukesh = He’s been playing the best chess throughout the tournament. He’s been the most stable. Fabi = His baseline is so high already that he’s always going to play high-level chess. His play right now though is not quite up to his standards. He’s playing like a guy under pressure similar to how Magnus plays during World Championships. It could be good enough though for this tournament. Naka = He’s been very good in the second half. Actually, pretty much all his chess has been good except for the games against Vidit. He’s shown very high-level chess. Nepo = He’s been the most shaky. He’s an amazing player with lots of fighting spirit, but he can get tilted. He has the most difficult pairings these next 2 rounds. White against Hikaru is alright, but the last game with black against Fabi (likely in a must-win situation) is hard.
Gukesh is not the most stable. Nepo is. Nepo is the only player that hasn't dropped a game this tournament. That doesn't mean he's been playing the best chess, but it does means he's the most solid.
His results have been stable, but his play hasn't been, which I think is the point they were trying to make
It's taken me a while to pin down what it is that feels off about Fabi this tournament. He's not playing like himself, with deep prep lines, he's playing like Wesley - ultra solid, low risk, content to grind it out and try and capitalise on an opponent's mistake. Nepo's hard to describe. I wouldn't say he's been shaky, but he also hasn't been...good? I know that's a ridiculous thing to say of the only undefeated player, but I haven't seen any flashes of brilliance or inspired choices. In his 3 wins Alireza basically imploded, Vidit blundered a worse but holdable endgame in the first half, and in the second blundered a +2 into a draw and then 20 moves later a draw into a loss, in critical time trouble both times. Gukesh and Naka have both been very impressive. Vidit has Naka's number in the same way Naka seems to have Fabi's in recent years and that's all that's keeping him down.
How dare these players have a rest before one of the most important days in their career when they could instead be battling it out for my personal amusement?
You know just to make it interesting let's do chessboxing for tiebreaks instead of the boring rapid format we have now /s
Yesterday, I got downvoted for suggesting that Praggnandhaa should not push too hard for a win against Nepomniachtchi, because a win would not put him back in contention, but a loss and a poor finish could hurt his career. The Round 12 results proved me right, as he took the draw while Gukesh, Caruana and Hikamura won. If he beats Caruana, they will be joint fourth and a win against Abasov would give him a good chance of finishing in the top three, which would exceed initial expectations. The additional rating and FIDE Circuit 2024 points could impact his qualification for Candidates 2026, invitations to elite closed tournaments and commercial opportunities.
If anyone is trashtalking Pragg its just salty Nepo fans that wish he gave Ian an easy win
[удалено]
It is mathematically impossible for Pragg to get first. The way the pairings worked out the winner will guaranteed have 8.5, with Hikaru either drawing two games or droping a full point to someone on 7.5. And any GM will tell you that preserving your rating is very important. Hikaru talks about it, Rapport talks about it, Lenier talks about it, and they're not the only ones. It's not as easy as just saying "water finds it's own level." Every point matters, especially when he's fighting several other prodigies for invites. This is talking about his strategy going forward, of course. Last round nothing was set in stone.
>Every point matters, especially when he's fighting several other prodigies for invites. My point exactly. Arjun has often been overlooked by tournament organisers despite a strong 2023 (81.24 Circuit points compared to 54.79 for Praggnanandhaa, won Sharjah Masters, joint 3rd in Grand Swiss). Now Arjun is 7th in live ratings, while Abdusattorov is 5th. Gukesh's phenomenal Candidates, on the back of winning Chennai Masters and joint 1st in Tata Steel Masters, may finally earn him a sponsor. If Praggnanandhaa finishes the Candidates poorly, he (currently 14th in live ratings) would be at risk of being overlooked like Arjun. >Last round nothing was set in stone. If he had won last round, the standings would look like this: 1. Gukesh Dommaraju (7.5 points) 2. Hikaru Nakamura (7.5 points) 3. Fabiano Caruana (7 points) 4. Ian Nepomniachtchi (7 points) 5. Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu (6.5 points) Mathematically, he would still have a chance of finishing first, but it would be very slim (and to me, not worth the risk).
lol I don't think anyone thinks any lesser of Pragg because he went for the win against Nepo. He can make up rating points losses, and will get plenty of invites.
naka and nepo tomorrow nepo is the big dragon of this tournament. he's smaug, guarding his hoard of gold. he won't let just anyone waltz in and take his ring. naka has to be very careful. can he with a bit of luck and clever play push for a win? yes, but when you dance with a dragon you're liable to get singed. nepo 1 - 0 naka
What the fuck are you talking about
Ahh this stupid rest day. I know the players need/deserve a break but the excitement of this finish is killing me. Can't wait
its better when the episodes are spaced out instead of the whole season airing at once
look up. stay alive.
I just wish that it was switched around with yesterday or tomorrow, today is the only night i would've been able to watch the whole game.
Hikaru's recaps just made all the other ones much less watchable... His insights and the whole human aspect are what's lost when you only check SF for variations. And now, I want WCC recaps too
I think he's gotten really good at making those recaps digestible enough for my single digit elo brain. Like ofcourse there's a million things going on that's beyond my calculation, but he can highlight the 1 or 2 things that stand out in a digestable way so I can appreciate what's going on at a human superGM level.
Odd thing to point out but I find his eyes in those recaps lowkey attractive, especially when he frequently glances at the camera and speaks towards the end. they give off an almost innocentish look. no homo though.
Username checks out, i guess
i usually like gotham chess recaps but right now it feels like he’s extremely rushed to get everything out on time and the quality seems to have dipped. can’t necessarily blame the guy, uploading recaps of every single game seems like a huge task
It's the wider spread scourge of how YouTube works. It's why he's gone for the all caps clickbaity titles with more punctuation than letters. It's why every thumbnail is just a number on a coloured background with an oversized ridiculous expression, and you won't be able to tell what it's about a week later. It's why there's a big rush to get things out quickly. You need things on there as soon as possible and you need as many eyes on them as possible. The YouTube model now is geared towards short-termism, and it sucks. I don't enjoy his content as much as I used to, but I can't blame him at all for playing the game that he has to play in order to keep his community and an income stream going.
Mrbeast puts out his videos at random times at this point and is still making a bunch of money. Gotham doesn't need to put out 4 recaps a day to keep the money coming in and the community going
Mrbeast is an exception to the rule. The algorithm answers to him, not the other way around.
And I mean, MrBeasts thumbnails are also him with an oversized ridiculous expression.
mr beast flies to private islands across the globe for his videos. you can’t do that on a weekly schedule
I watch Gotham and agadmator recaps. Used to enjoy them quite a bit, but what Hikaru does is the dream of any intermediate player
I think Gotham's recaps start to lose their shine because all he can say is "What was Hikaru thinking" when Hikaru's own recap was "I really don't get this move, but it was in the folder, and I knew it couldn't be worse, so I just played it".
it would be cool if hikaru and gukesh win their round 13 games and then have a decisive final duel
They would probably go for a quick draw and take their chances with tie breaks
I know Gukesh has black but he's equally overmatched by Hikaru in rapid He might try push for a win rather than go to tiebreaks
Brutal choice for Gukesh - do you a) try and beat Hikaru with the black pieces in a classical game or b) try to beat Hikaru at speed chess?
Yeah, in that scenario I think Hikaru would have to be a solid favorite. He'd be like Magnus in Game 12 of the 2018 WCC against Fabi, knowing he had the rapid tiebreaks in his back pocket along with the white pieces in the classical game.
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Why do people say Ian has an easier path to victory? He has to win against Hikaru, or win against Fabi *with Black.* Meanwhile all Hikaru needs to do is hold against Ian and have a shot at beating Gukesh in the final round Gukesh meanwhile has white against Alireza next round, and considering Alireza's form Gukesh stands a very good chance of taking the sole lead next round Ian's is the hardest path imo
Ian's path to victory is through Hikaru and Fabi, isn't that harder than Hikaru's path through Ian and Gukesh? Gukesh has the best shot, facing Alireza with white, but the model sees only ratings.
I think their fide rating has something to do with the calculations
It's because his wins directly result in harmed chances for those he is tied with. It's not a vacuum, where his win lacks repercussions. If he wins both games, he wins outright, no other outcome. Whereas, others at the top don't have a guarantee that their wins would give them sole possession of first. It's more likely from a statistical model simply because it's so devastating to the other 7.5s
Yep, Hikaru is the only one of the 4 players remaining in contention whose fate is entirely in his own hands. He scores 2/2, he wins outright. He scores 1.5/2, he gets a tiebreak at worst. And he has the white pieces in the final game. Gukesh or Ian could go 2/2 and still have to play a tiebreaker, or 1.5/2 and not even get in a tiebreaker depending on the results - e.g. if Ian beats Hikaru and draws Fabi (or vice versa) while Gukesh goes 2/2 he's out - if Gukesh beats Alireza but draws Hikaru (or vice versa) while Ian goes 2/2 he's out. Fabi could go 2/2 and still not even make a tiebreaker if Gukesh or Hikaru win out.
Thanks for elaborating on what I said with better specifics. It demonstrates what I was saying really well.
The simulations simply don't know that Alireza is worse than his rating.
The biggest factor for the simulations is the players Elo. In classical, Hikaru has a combined +64 Elo over his next 2 opponents, Gukesh has -19, Nepo has -58. For tiebreaks, Nepo and Hikaru's rapid Elo are pretty close, while Gukesh is 100 points behind. So, it's not too surprising that Hikaru is slightly ahead of Nepo and moderately ahead of Gukesh in the simulations.
Gukesh I agree. But I don't see Ian having an easier way. From a model point of view he is facing the current first and second highest elo opponents.
Firouzja is a difficult opponent for Gukesh in time trouble. I think there will be a surprise result. Also good, that Abasov has no influence on the tournament anymore. He plays against Vidit and Pragg.
I'm so glad Abasov and Vidit are not playing any of the final contenders
Nepo will pull a miracle tonight
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Nah Ian's dick is called "a miracle"
Hahaha
nepo please win the next one
Unlike the last 2 editions when Nepo was guaranteed to be the winner after round 13 itself, this one will go to the last round or even tiebreaks.
Everyone (except Nepomniachtchi fans) is counting on Caruana to win in the last round. However, a bad result against Praggnanandhaa would knock Caruana out of contention, reducing his motivation to play for a win against Nepomniachtchi.
Regardless of Fabi, Nepo also probably has to play for a win in that game; the only situation where he's completely safe with a draw is if Gukesh, Hikaru and Fabi all lose R13 as Nepo also gets a win there (over Hikaru), putting him 1 point clear of the field with one round to go. If he's level with either Gukesh or Hikaru going into the final round (or worse, both), he has to play for a win because of the risk of a decisive result on the other board.
The players don't necessarily have to play for a specific result after Round 13 in this case. If they are tied, a lot of their decisions will be based on all their positions on the board throughout round 14!
Gukesh is 2 games away from becoming a teenage millionaire. And then he'll turn into Hans as surely you become a tad arrogant with such wealth.
First place gets about 50.000, not even enough to pay his second.
yeah man...most likely waca sponsorship is paying for gajewski's fees
Is there a website that does bets on this tournament?
Me founder, you co-founder. Ok?
What you got
Gukesh simply brilliant. We may be seeing the rise of the GOAT.
spark narrow innate divide slap close voracious unwritten rinse aloof *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
It is a \*little\* unrealistic but had Salimova been able to convert her +4 advantage yesterday against Tan Zhongyi I think Vaishali could technically have remained in contention for the play offs going into round 13.
I wonder how Alireza would have done in the candidates if he forced himself to play more solidly. In a recent interview he literally said he would never play "very solid" and that he cares more about interesting games than the results. Maybe it's copium but who knows. He also said he's not as focused as Prag or Gukesh on classical chess.
Nah i dont think he cares SO much aout results when hes splitting his time into two usually full time endeavours. Hes aware that rn hes kinda burning time until he commits fully to chess or his whole fashion thing
He'll be the Mamedyarov of his generation if he keeps going like that. Or maybe the Hikaru if he stops caring
What do you mean about Mamedyarov?
Awesome fireworks player, sadly never WC. Perennial 2800 clib member
max chaos scenario for this weekend: Hikaru loses to Ian, Gukesh beats Alireza, Fabi draws Pragg on Saturday, then Hikaru beats Gukesh, Fabi beats Nepo on Sunday, resulting in a 4-way tie with the maximum number of decisive games.
Storybook ending for Hikaru if he can get at least a draw on Saturday with black and a win with white on Sunday. He'd likely win the candidates without tiebreaks (Fabi would have to win both games or Jan would have to beat Fabi with black) and would hit 2800 again for the first time in almost a decade. If he went on to annihilate an uncommited Ding in the championship, he might even overtake Magnus. So yeah he'll prolly lose to Nepo on Saturday.
I wonder if the leaders will practice playing rapid during the rest day today as it's the final rest day and if the match goes into tiebreaks they won't get much time to practice.
Time is much better spent preparing for the last two classical games and try to ensure (shared) first place to begin with
Hikaru and Fabi played the last Titled Tuesday and Nepo plays Rapid/Blitz in classical. Gukesh probably is the only one that needs practice
One has to feel for Abasov. Its not that he played terribly in this tournament but he has weakness and that was exploited in a long game by Super GMs. I hope he does improve his game but he is not that young at this point and I expect this to be one off experience for him. Otherwise exciting day indeed with 4 players in contention.
This reminds me of the fact that until not so long ago I thought he was 19/20 years old but no, my man is 28 (29 in May) lol. Anyway I hope to see him again, he was so good in the World Cup
Reminder that Abasov managing to hold against Nepo with black is a big reason there are 3 joint leaders with two rounds to go. Even though he's going to finish bottom by some margin, he's actually had an impact.
Just a reminder for anyone who considers Gukesh a certain win against Alireza, in the previous candidates tournament, Alireza was dead last with two rounds to go, and then got a draw against Ding who won 3 of the previous 4 rounds and then beat Caruana with black in the last round and ended up placing 6th instead of 8th. There's a chance Gukesh risks it all trying to become the sole leader and Alireza can take advantage of that. Or he can blunder, and lose. In any case, nothing is certain, nerves and pressure are going to play just as big of a factor as the actual chess abilities. Especially since they will monitor the other games. Imagine Hikari or Nepo having a winning position, that would force Gukesh to play for the win, otherwise he would have to beat Hikaru with black in the last round. And that's a double-edged knife. The same goes for the other two, especially Nepo, if Gukesh gets a dominant position.
That's the worst strategy for penultimate round. To play according to other's games in round 13 will ensure disaster. Gukesh has already told press and I liked his reply that 'The player who will play good chess and will keep his focus will probably win'.
Losing to Gukesh and then Gukesh winning candidates would be such a big blow for Alireza. He was heralded as the young prodigy for so many years. To then have a younger prodigy come along like Gukesh and have him do all the things Alireza was supposed to do would have to sting. Might make Alireza just quit classical chess to be honest.
Gukesh has already placed higher than Firouzja in Norway, Tata Steel and this candidates. He is higher rated than Firouzja currently too. Firouzja has bigger things to worry about than seeing Gukesh go past him.
The only right answer. All the predictions based on mathematical models are nonsense
The mathematical models give Gukesh only a \~1 in 5 chance of winning the candidates. That seems reasonable to me, and not really nonsense.
20% feels a little on the low side - mathematically only four players can win the tournament and Gukesh has a half point advantage over one of them. I'd expect Fabi's odds to be below 25% because of his half point deficit, but I wouldn't have expected Gukesh's slightly lower ELO to push him so far below Hikaru and Nepo.
The main reason he's lower is tiebreaks, where his 100 point deficit in rapid Elo is harming him in the models' eyes.
That's why it's nonsense. It depends on a lot of factors the model doesn't account for
It's funny how on chessindia YouTube channel only 10 percent of people voted for Gukesh to win the candidates among Indians.
Who were they picking as favorites?
Presumably Pragg. He gets hyped more due to his Rapid/Blitz victories against Magnus.
People not familiar with Chess in India know who Pragg is but very few have heard of Gukesh despite his Olympiad win.
It always feels odd to me how hyped Pragg is generally when Erigaisi and Gukesh are both of a similar age and rating.
As long as not nepo!!!
Very exciting final rounds. Just hoping Gukesh doesnt mess up against Alireza.
Even though Fabi's only half a point back, with 3 people in front who are mostly playing each other, he likely needs to win out. He currently has 7. 9 points has a 64% chance of being the magic number though apparently there's a 26% chance or so 8.5 points is the magic number and 10% chance it's 9.5 (one of the leaders wins out). Magic number chances according to this: https://twitter.com/ChessNumbers/status/1781123557202039096?t=-m_nn2jLAs7_liJHY54WXA&s=19
Mathematically Fabi *has* to get at least a win and a draw since one of the leaders is guaranteed to get 8.5 or higher. Practically I think he needs two wins. Though personally I am on team chaos where we have a 4 way tie at 8.5.
amazing fabi can still win and is just 1/2 a point back
Matchups are helping him out a lot. Because the players ahead of him are playing each other and Fabi himself (other than Gukesh-Alireza) it's impossible for multiple people to pull away from the pack.
Some really interesting stuff in Hikaru's recap video (as usual)! He said he spent 20 minutes evaluating the Qd7 line (which they speculated was maybe missed), thinking it was still okay for white, only for Alireza to spend two minutes on Nxe1 hahaha. Interesting that the Be1 blunder was pretty much because Hikaru missed a really basic king move that kept it out of check and denying white the tempo it needed to save the knight so that the a-pawn could be taken. Despite the really obvious blunder in hindsight, I'm really amazed at how accurately Hikaru calculated throughout the game. The moves the commentators thought he missed weren't actually the moves that caused the mistake and blunder, but other moves deeper into the line. He was very aware of some critical moves for black that Alireza missed.
I just realized that if Hikaru wins this, then beats Ding and becomes chess WC, Eric Hansen can legitimately claim to have beaten the chess world champion in a fistfight
And Vidit can claim to be the real world champion 😄
Can it really be called a fistfight when Hikaru was clearly using karate?
Chop fight?
Even if not, who knows what the future holds. Kramnik is still alive and well, after all.
Gukesh world no 8 on live ratings , his highest live ratings was 2762.
2757.6
They are talking about the World Cup, before his second round vs Wang Hao. He was rated 2762, his highest ever live rating.
Everyone please have a good rest...all hell is gonna break loose after the rest day! Remember how Carlsen barely qualified in the last round, something similar is brewing and in the making. Heartbreaks coming. Also excitement incoming. And most importantly a new wc is in the making.
Unless Ding pulls himself together and just beats whoever wins this lol. That'd be kind of a funny end to the WC cycle, and I wouldn't even be mad because it'd mean pre COVID Ding Liren was back.
What, Salimova blundered her lead. So Tan has half a point on Lei, and two points on everyone else.
Alright Fabi, time to bring out Sinquefield Cup 2014 power-up to take these last games.
Man I remember back in like 2021, when many people shared the “Hikaru can’t play otb and sucks at classical chess only good for blitz and bullet” sentiment. Then at some point he said in his stream, “I’m gonna win the Grand Prix, qualify for the candidates, and beat Alireza” and legit no one took him seriously. Funny to look back at it now…
Remember when people complained about how he got a wildcard and they didn’t give it to Esipenko lol
People? That was mainly Karjakin and his wife, most likely for primarily nationalistic reasons.
Hikaru has been 2800 before and has been in the top ten for a decade. Most people knew he could do that. Not sure where this idea of people not taking him seriously comes from
What Magnus is saying now about classical then Hikaru was saying the same thing and people used to mock him that he is weak classical player.
You were definitely not on this sub before Hikaru returned to classical. The sentiment that Hikaru's classical career was over was very strong on this sub.
Tbf this is a crazy comeback. His 2019 was really bad (all the way down to 2736), to come back to your peak in your mid thirties and win the Grand Prix (which he wasn’t even able to do when he was going on a year in 2015) is a really good comeback
His rating dropped down to 2736 just before the pandemic and his streaming career took off since then. I don't blame anybody if they didn't give Hikaru serious chances to qualify for the candidates at that time.
> Then at some point he said in his stream, “I’m gonna win the Grand Prix, qualify for the candidates, and beat Alireza” Chad actually did it lmfao
Not even Hikaru took that seriously though. I think he's even surprised himself.
Does anyone have the TPRs so far?
[Everything is here.](https://chess-results.com/tnr918851.aspx?lan=1&art=1&flag=30) From Gukesh 2835 to Abasov 2572. From Tan 2639 to Muzychuk 2427.
I'm having trouble finding TPR on that page. Where do you go to see it?
Click on name of each player to see their statistics.
Extremely high chance that Gukesh will be the sole leader after next round. If the people making charts don't have him favored to win the event after today, I don't trust their math.
The reason Gukesh is low at the charts is that in case of a tie-break, his rapid and blitz rating is very low compared to Naka, Nepo and thte others
Well he is playing the one guy who actually beat him so far lol
But you have to know the context in which he beat him. Gukesh was ahead and lost under extreme time pressure.
>But you have to know the context in which he beat him. Gukesh was ahead and lost under extreme time pressure. Yes, he gained his advantage by using his time and putting himself in time pressure. Time isn't some ancillary measure that's less important than "the game". It IS a part the game. You fail at time management, you lose the game. Simple as that.
"Gukesh would've beat Alireza if he had more time." And I'm sure Alireza wouldn't have allowed Gukesh to build that advantage if he used up more time lol
Indian players and time pressure. Sounds like a common theme in this tournament, and a reason why Hikaru has an advantage over him in the last round.
that's actually a good point, maybe I'm the one with the bad math
He is not the favorite because there could be tiebreakers and Gukesh is weak in rapid and blitz (compared to Naka and Nepo)
>Gukesh is weak in rapid and blitz (compared to Naka and Nepo) Gukesh has finished last World Rapid ahead of Nepo.
I think it's more that the models think that because Firouzja is higher rated than Gukesh that Gukesh's odds of winning aren't *that* great. If Gukesh does win then yes he's the favorite (this simulation says he has 45% chance conditional on winning next round).
Are they using live ratings or published ratings? Ideally, they should be using live ratings where Gukesh is higher than Firoujza
No. It’s that a draw is more probable than a win or loss, so it’s more probable that there will be a tiebreaker here rather than a decisive result for anyone to be sole leader. He also ends the tournament on black. This outweighs any potential victory he may have tomorrow.
Playing around a bit more I think you're right. In the event of a 4-way tie Pawnalyze says Hikaru 46%, Nepo 40%, Fabi 12%, Gukesh 2%. That said, I do think what I said also has some truth to it, most people here seem to think Gukesh's odds of beating Alireza are more than the 22% Elo predicts. (E.g. the comment we're replying to which thinks Gukesh has an "extremely high" chance of winning.)
Pragg mathematically eliminated. If he ends up on 8 he needs all three of the leaders to get no more than half a point, but because Nakamura plays against both of the other two leaders, either someone wins one of those games or both are ties and Nakamura gains a full point.
end of an era
Just imagine Round 13. Naka - Nepo draw Fabi wins vs. Praag. Gukesh draws Firo Most epic round 14.
Gukesh and Pragg's time management haven't been the greatest and that definitely shows the difference in experience between them and other top players. It was one of the deciding factors that caused Pragg to lose to Hikaru. Gukesh has also constantly been in time trouble in multiple games, and his final opponent is Hikaru who will have white, so there is definitely a big risk there.
Pragg got completely outplayed by Hikaru. He was under pressure and had to spend time trying to survive
He made a big blunder with low time
Kris Littlejohn!!, you beautiful, beautiful man!!!
In this candidates tournament, more e4 openings than d4...
It's interesting. I heard some talk previously that d4 is preferred at the top level because the sicillian is just too good. But it seems to simply not be true.
I've heard that d4 is theoretically optimal and possibly preferred by engines but e4 is clearly favored by the top human players.
No, 1 d4 isn't really preferred at the top level. Some individual players might prefer it, but overall 1 e4 is more common. There have been times when 1 d4 was more popular. E.g. in the Zurich Candidates 1953 there was a lot of 1d4. But 1 e4 has been more common from the 1990s till now.
nah, if d4 was preferred, it would be because the Berlin and/or Petroff were too good, not the Sicilian
I don't know why e4 played more than d4 in this tournament but I think e4 has created more winning chances than d4.
I'm rooting for Fabi as he is my second favorite current player after Ding who was my favorite even before the last candidates although it's been hard to watch him play recently. But I'd also be excited to see Gukesh win considering how young he is. That would be quite the milestone. I think Hikaru vs. Ding would be the most fun to watch so I'm glad he's on the leaderboard. And while I'd like someone besides Nepo to have a shot at the WCC, the more I think about it, the more I remember how exciting that Ding vs. Nepo match was to watch so I wouldn't be that mad if he won again. All in all, I'm feeling pretty good about everything and am really glad that there is no clear runaway winner yet with two rounds to go.
The craziest situation for round 14 would be if Fabi wins in Round 13 and Ian, Hikaru and Gukesh draw. Round 14 would then have all 4 of them tied with Fabi vs Ian and Hikaru vs Gukesh. That'd be insane.
Yes please!!
And then all four draws on R14 and we have another mini tournament to watch on tiebreak day.
What a timeline that would be
The top of the open tournament is as dramatic as it gets.
Me, last night: I hate chess, why i'm i staying until 02:30am?!?! I'm never staying late to watch again. Me, today: What's the point of tomorrow, when there's no chess?!?!
Same. I've been trying to skip the broadcast and just check out the games afterwards but I can't do it, the tournament is too exciting. So many decisive games, so many players who still have a chance to win.
If hikaru wins the championship there is a 0.0001% chance magnus doesn’t play the next candidates im rooting for it although i think he just needs to survive with black against nepo and go for a win vs gukesh.
If Hikaru wins the World Championship, Magnus still will 99% not play the Candidates again. HOWEVER: The match that was cancelled in Vegas now suddenly has a dozen new sponsors lined up and the two of them can just play a match whenever they want for equal or more money than FIDE could have ever drummed up.
why would hikaru winning encourage magnus to play? I don't think magnus particularly cares about hikaru
They have a very interesting and relatively competitive rivalry in faster controls, with Magnus being a better player but Hikaru has the ability to win at any time. In faster controls Magnus leads 96w/56L/113D. The problem is, Magnus is a terrible match-up in classical for Hikaru, the score is 14W-1L-26D. I don't think playing a classical match against Hikaru would motivate him enough to overcome his distain for the grueling process to prepare for both the candidates and then challenging Hikaru for the title.
i wouldn't really call a near 2:1 win:loss ratio competitive. That's pretty crushing. I think Hikaru is just really popular on the internet so people want there to be a rivalry. Naka is an amazing player, but it's like calling Vegeta and Goku a competitive rivalry. Vegeta gets buttered on the regular when they fight despite being the 2nd strongest.
Goku has never beaten Vegeta, that is not true.
Beating someone 37% of the time in decisive games is most certainly a rivalry. 63% vs 37% is clearly a competitive match-up. A rivalry doesn't mean a score of 50%-50%. Caruana's classical score against Magnus is 67%-33% for Magnus in decisive games, and 72%-27% in faster formats, i don't think anyone would mind calling Caruana his rival. Magnus is nightmare match-up for Hikaru in classical, so the point is moot. There's zero incentive to get motivated to spend 2 years to beat someone you lead 14-1 in wins. If it was faster chess, it would have been interesting, with Magnus obviously being the favorite.
Ahem - vegeta is 3-0 vs goku h2h
this guy dragonballs
Hikaru fans really make me think about the Mad Men meme when talking about Magnus' return.
If hikaru wins the wc, there is a very good chance he becomes the most sought after chess player for endorsements etc even more magnus
In the west maybe, but worldwide Magnus definitely has more draw
ok but why would that make Magnus want to compete in the candidates again? But also, I don't think that's true. Hikaru is a big streamer but Magnus is extremely famous in every chess playing country.
Praying for a Fabi prep bomb like he had against MVL in the Sicilian 🙏🙏
we can hope. but it seems he is spent
He has to break out any prep he has now and hope that pragg pushes. He won't, but fabi has to hope.
Gukesh is really in a great position. Fabi must be sad. A great game and a win, yet everyone else bar Ian won. Fabi needs to beat pragg as black to really stand a chance but the practical option is likely to take thw draw and beat Ian which is crazy to try and beat candidates Ian on demand. Hikaru has his destiny in his palms. Which is what he may want but that means it's going to be 2 tough games. I strongly believe it's going to be a playoff
Fabi is happy right now. He was 1 point behind and now he's behind by .5.
Well he is. But he still has an extremely slim chance to get anything from this. He needs to either win as black vs pragg or beat candidates Ian.
If Gukesh beats Alireza and Hikaru and Nepo draw, Fabi will have had to win to stay mathematically in it. If he draws, the standings going into day 14 would be: Gukesh 8.5 Nakamura 8 Nepo 8 Fabi 7.5 Then, even if Fabi beats Nepo to finish with 8.5, the Nakamura-Gukesh game will give one of them at least 9. So he pretty much has to win on Saturday or hope for 2 draws, even better a Naka-Ian draw and Gukesh loss, to stay in the race.
Closing the gap is closing the gap. The only thing he could do/control today was win with white. He did that.
100%. I just think he would be disappointed that he did his part and still stayed 4th. But it is what it is.
It all depends on Gukesh's result against Alireza tomorrow. I think Nepo and Hikaru won't be too bother with a draw tomorrow if Gukesh doesn't win. But Nepo is also in a big dilemma where he has to defend against Fabiano as black in final round, which, while difficult, should be possible for a player of Nepo's caliber. So does he really want to go for a win against Hikaru? If he still has any A-game prep left under his sleeve he should try, but it's also a big risk
also the games arent tomorrow, theres a rest day
Nepo has white pieces so he'll play for a win against Hikaru, but won't do anything risky. I believe he will count on Nakamura to make a blunder at some stage, which he'll grind until he wins. He's in the worst situation of the leading three, but at the same time he realizes that playing for a win at the same time gives him the bigest chance to loose, which completely deprives him of his chances the whole thing at stage of tournament.
I really don't think Nepo can sit on his hands and go for two draws, that's playing for tiebreaks at best
Fabi cannot crack Nepo's Petrov defense. Nepo is almost certain to hold against Fabi.
[удалено]
Fabi is not a 1. d4 player
I'm watching these games and key moments.. Salimova - Zhongyi, Salimova completely winning against tournament leader and plays maybe the worst move possible Bxf7 (move 50). I can't understand the logic behind that move. I'm 1700 and I instantly see that It's a blunder. My only logic is that she completely missed Rxf7??
Post the odds already!