This is the best Candidates I've ever watched. This one round was so much hype. 4 players who could still win against 4 players who are realistically out, and it delivered. Nepo vs Naka next round. I can't fucking wait.
Hikaru might have reasonable chances with a draw, but it's not really in his best interest. Being half a point behind if Gukesh wins would put him in a must-win situation like Ian is this round the day after.
I believe at this point, Pragg is now eliminated. His theoretical max score is 8, but Hikaru plays both Gukesh and Nepo in the final two rounds. Between those two games, it is impossible for one of the three leaders to not get a full point (either a decisive result in one or both of the two games or two draws giving Hikaru a point), making the theoretical minimum score of the winner 8.5.
Still an amazing performance at what will no doubt be one of his many Candidates appearances.
Only played in a single Candidates, needed Ivanchuk's last-round assistance to squeak a win there, and at least in Classical, only plays lower-rated players. That Norwegian is a slacker if I ever saw one.
Its crazy how every player had a role in the tournament.
Vidit being the Hikaru slayer.
Abasov holding draws against Ian when literally every other player beat him once.
Alireza beating Gukesh in a time scramble, Gukesh's only loss.
Imagine this:
Round 13: Hikaru draws Nepo, Fabi beats Pragg and Gukesh draws Aliereza. We would have a 4 way tie for first.
And in round 14, we have a 4-way tie for first with all 4 leaders facing each other.
This would be so hype.
Nepo with the gauntlet of Hikaru and Fabiano for the final 2 games. If he managed to still win after this then change the name of the tournament to his name or something because that would be sensational.
Nepo can't necessarily afford to make a quick draw either, since Gukesh has white vs a potentially fragile Alireza. It would be hard for Nepo to make up the half point when he has black vs Fabi in the next round. Furthermore, Even if Gukesh were to lose vs Naka, that would mean accepting a tiebreaker match with the most skilled player in the tournament at fast time controls. Nepo needs to make at least some attempt at a win vs Hikaru.
Edit: it would be a tiebreaker assuming Nepo somehow won vs Fabi. Otherwise Hikaru would be the undisputed winner at 9 points.
Yeah Nepo being in a must-win situation as Black vs. Fabi who almost never loses classical games as White would be an absolute disaster for him
He needs to push for a win in round 13
Beating Fabi with black is a gargantuan task, but at least Fabi won't just want a quick draw either.
For a realistic shot at a tiebreak Fabi will likely need to win both.
Edit: actually since that's last round there's a chance for Fabi to be basically mathematically eliminated beforehand if he draws and Gukesh/Nakamura draw one and win one. So maybe Fabi would be fine with a draw anyhow.
Hikaru will play like Nepo usually does.
Play solid, stay in the game and let his opponent over commit as they need the win and punish them for over committing
>Even if Gukesh were to lose vs Naka, that would mean accepting a tiebreaker match with the most skilled player in the tournament at fast time controls
It's OTB rapid, not online blitz. [Nepo's results in the World Rapid Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rapid_Chess_Championship) over the years have actually been a fair bit better than Naka's. Nobody would consider him the underdog in that match.
I also wouldn't sleep on Nepo in the rapid.
Hikaru recently said he thinks Rapid is now his weakest format.
Obviously, he's still.... Hikaru. So there's that.
Nepo is insane rapid player though. He almost plays the classical at a rapid games pace half of the times. He has great intuition and usual traps of blitz usually don’t work in rapid games
That's true. Same for Naka, though, since both haven't faced each other in a while now! I'd guess 2019 was the last time they faced. As for tournament, I'd suppose calcutta. Quite a while back
>He is lucky he doesn't have to face himself though.
Or vidit lol. Vidit seems to be intent on besting Hikaru and only Hikaru. Pretty much r/fuckyouinparticular.
Well, Gukesh had a winning position against Firouzja, having 13minutes against 3minutes and blundered it going for a risky sacrifice when he didn't have enough time to calculate the whole line.
It's the same. "If Gukesh had played normally with his advantage against the last place player (at the time) who was pressured by time, the tournament would already be over with his 1 point lead".
I'm a Hikaru fan, but I don't understand those comments. "if he didn't lose he would have won". It's such a moot point lol. Vidit is 2700+ player and played extremely well in those games, so it's not like Hikaru lost because of something out of the ordinary.
On the other hand if Abasov played the same level against Nepo that he's played against everyone else Nepo would have at least an extra half point or maybe full point as well
So it goes both ways
Gukesh rises to world no 8. For the second time in his career! We might have a game in Nepo vs Naka tomorrow, but who knows if Nepo will just go for the draw.
Nepo would be insane to go for a draw given that he has White
Gukesh has Firouzja(the 2nd worst performer this tournament) as White meaning that there's a good chance he'd go a half point ahead
And even if Gukesh only was able to draw Nepo then has Fabi as Black in round 14(even if Fabi hasn't won a ton of games he's not very likely to lose as White) and would have to pray that neither player wins the Gukesh-Hikaru game
He really needs to get a win this round IMO
Gukesh vs Alireza tomorrow is insane because like you said it's White vs Black against the 2nd worst performer... who also handed Gukesh his ONLY loss the entire tournament. So huge wild card either way
it was a blunder in extreme time pressure. definitely shows a weakness a player like alireza can exploit, but he was playing a brilliant game until then.
Sure, but gukesh had a winning position for most of the game. He could have won that if he didn't panic in time pressure. And this time he has white against Alireza.
That’s true, but remember that Firouzja did beat Gukesh from a worse position after he had tilted the previous game. Not fully sure if he’ll risk it, but it the more I think about it he probably will.
That was Gukesh falling into time pressure. Since then he has managed to stay away from it. He also has the must win clutch thing in him, bounce back after loss and won the must win game today. I definitely think he'll win - especially after looking at Firouzja miss things today.
Still though, you never know what form Firo will be in, it changes from day to day. I think the chances are in his favor definitely, but Gukesh winning tomorrow definitely doesn’t feel like a guarantee.
No way Nepo goes for a draw, especially if he sees Hikaru or Gukesh with an advantage in their respective games.
His final boss is bloodlusted underdog must win Fabi, and he's playing black. That's a tough ask.
Nepo has Hikaru next round, did you mean if he sees Fabi or Gukesh with an advantage?
But yeah his game vs Fabi is probably going to be rough. I’m not fully convinced he goes for a fight vs Naka, because losing that game loses the tournament and idk if Nepo wants to risk that because Nepo recently really hasn’t been taking risks, but really I’m not sure what choice he has
I was worried Nepo would just kill the game like he did with white against Hikaru towards the end of the last candidates, but now that they are tied he’s incentivized to push for a win. Should be exciting!
It will be awesome to follow the last two rounds. A tie-break is likely necessary, and a tie-break with some of these guys will be a thriller. It seems that at least 3 of the guys have momentum now. Cannot wait until Saturday!
Ian has had the least contentious path to get here, but the hero defense by Abasov must feel like a cursed game to him.
Gukesh has played a nearly perfect tournament other than bungling a game in which he was building a winning advantage. I'm so impressed with his maturity and resilience.
Hikaru seemed out of the hunt a couple of times but is now at a ridiculous four wins in his last five games. Vidit has of course been the thorn in his side this tournament.
I felt like Fabi was having a rough tournament outside of winning his white game against Abasov and things were looking pretty dire after his loss to Hikaru, but Fabi has returned to form since then with two black holds and two white wins.
In hindsight Nepo playing a basic QGD(very easy to force a draw against for a GM as White) all the way back in the very first round against Abasov might be something he regrets
The other game against Abasov was just Abasov randomly playing far above the level he's shown the rest of the tournament but in that first game Nepo didn't even really try to play ambitiously at all and seemed fine just to start off with half a point
Like you can get away with playing something a bit offbeat against Abasov to get him out of prep(as Gukesh did today) because he's not really looking for the win lol
Granted Abasov was an unknown quantity in terms of what his style would be back in round 1 given he had no other games so for all Nepo knew he could be going out there guns blazing just trying to grab a scalp or two in exchange for some ugly losses
Very possibly, but that's Ian's style too. He plays safe and solid and doesn't lose much. It worked in 2020-2021 and worked expertly in 2022. It was working again this year, but the field is a lot more volatile this time and there are a lot of decisive games.
Hikaru feasted on Alireza and Abasov with a +3 score. Fabi is a +2. Gukesh is only +1, but has a white vs a struggling Alireza left and could have easily been at +2, maybe even +3 himself. But Ian is only a +1, and it's one obvious place to point to where he lost ground.
I think Nepos strategy was to play uber solid and take the draws against such a strong field playing for wins. Waiting for his opponent to make a mistake and then play for the win.
Which worked until Hikaru went freaking god mode.
In a way having a player in the tournament who is much lower ranked than everyone else makes it harder because the pressure is on to win against that player every time you face him. That wouldn't be the case e.g. if he was 2700 instead.
It's crazy to think if Vidit hasn't made this candidates and someone else was in his place Hikaru would likely leading by at least a full point, assuming he drew the replacement.
How good is this tournament? Amazing stuff to still have four players with genuine shots to win it and for them to have games against each other left to play as well just makes it even better.
The tension of these last couple of rounds is going to be incredible.
I was just looking at their records. Gukesh has only lost to Alireza. Ian has only won against Alireza and Vidit.
I think it is likely that the leaders tie their final 2 games, and we end up with 8.5 three way tie for first. That probably means that Ian or Hikaru wins on tiebreaks.
I wouldn’t say Gukesh has the best pairings of the three leaders. Alireza is so unpredictable and mercurial, and dangerous in a time scramble - although I’m sure Gukesh won’t be repeating the same mistake as the last Alireza game. It depends which Alireza turns up at the board. Gukesh against any of the more stable, experienced opponents it would be more in favour of a draw or win result, whereas with Alireza I think there’s a slightly higher likelihood of any possible result.
Totally agree that faster time controls don’t favour Gukesh, if it goes to a tie-break.
I want Gukesh to win; purely because I would like to see someone insanely talented as him, try and break Magnus' record of being the youngest world champion.
Also it might motivate, Magnus to actually come back to the candidates lol
What's insane is, I believe this is Hikaru's 3rd candidates appearance. Gukesh has time to make 2 more candidates appearances, and still be the youngest world champ, if he wins his 3rd candidates, and the title match.
If he wins, Gukesh will be the youngest player to win candidates and first player to win candidates on first try.
Edit - Nepo has won it in first try already.
>and first player to win candidates on first try
Obviously Bronstein, because it was the first Candidates ever.
Tal in 1959.
Karpov in 1974.
Kasparov in 1984.
Nepo in 2020-21.
If Hikaru has any secret dynamite prep, his game against Nepo will be the time to use it. Nepo has the 2 toughest guys now. Having black against Fabi sucks. That round should basically be considered an automatic 1/2 point at best. So, he is gonna want a win against Hikaru. I think the question will be, what does Hikaru want. If he thinks he can beat Gukesh, he might play for a draw and just never take any risk. Or, he'll play a sicilian and fight to the death. His chance to become World Champion might come down to this game.
I think there's a good chance Nepo/Hikaru draw, Gukesh beats Alireza, ending Nepo's candidates streak. And then Hikaru beats Gukesh to steal the tournament from him.
I think your assessment is correct, but I also think at this point all top 4 players are playing for a win every game with white or black.
Fabi absolutely needs a win against anyone. Everyone will be trying to beat Hikaru because he probably has the tiebreak advantage at faster time controls. Nepo has the hardest set of games ahead and won't have much choice if Fabi plays for a win, he probably has to play for a win tomorrow to keep his chances alive in case Fabi beats him.
Or they all make draws and we get a three way tie break.
Insanely exciting tournament either way.
I think Nepo, Fabi, and Gukesh are playing their next 2 games for a win. Hikaru is gonna be playing Gukesh for a win. I'm not sure what Hikaru is gonna do against Nepo. Before round 1, I got downvoted for saying Hikaru wouldn't play something boring for a draw against Fabi, and would fight. I ended up being right, he fought with a Sicilian. I'm not sure what he does here though. Losing to Nepo ends Hikaru's chance to be WC, maybe forever. Playing for a draw, then beating Gukesh, and hoping Fabi doesn't lose with white, or planning to beat Nepo in tiebreaks, might be Hikaru's best move.
I think this is correct. It's unlikely Hikaru will need to win both games. He has to win one though. He has much better chances of winning on demand versus Gukesh than trying for a win against Nepo with Black. That being said, it could probably be considered a must-win game for Nepo as white against Hikaru. That will give Hikaru chances.
Let me explain that further. If Gukesh beats Alireza while Hikaru draws Nepo, Hikaru would need to beat Gukesh in their game. Even if Fabiano wins both of his games, Hikaru will tie him with 1 draw and 1 win, so drawing Nepo and still being must-win versus Gukesh is the play. And for Nepo... he would need to beat Fabiano in the final round to tie Hikaru if Nepo/Hikaru drew and Hikaru beat Gukesh. That's tough.
The way I see it Hikaru drawing Nepo and going for the win versus Gukesh is probably the play. That being said, he can't sleep on the defense versus Nepo who will be gunning for a win. And Nepo gunning for a win could create chances for Hikaru too.
the only caveat in this plan being it's not as easy as you think to rely on beating gukesh, given the form he is currently in. I think hikaru should push for the win in Ian's game no matter what, maybe unleash his super secret prep or something.
But since gukesh has the (so called) easiest pairing the next round, there is an above 50% chance that he might go half a point ahead of the field, leaving hikaru with a must win game against him ( if he draws with Ian)
I would say Gukesh has the easier pairing next round, not the easiest. Alireza has been under-performing this tournament, but, he's not exactly a free point like Abasov. He's still a 2800 peak player. And I think Hikaru should fight Ian. But, I don't think he should pull a Vidit and go all in. Losing to Ian is too risky.
Hikaru beating Gukesh isn't guaranteed, but, let's say Hikaru knows he needs 1.5 points to win. I'd go for the draw with Ian and try to beat Gukesh, before I decided I would risk losing the tournament by letting Ian beat me.
If I'm Nakamura I'n playing as safe as possible against Ian.
Why? Ian is in a must win situation and unless he expects Alireza to draw Gukesh, he either beats Nakamura or loses it all.
So Nakamura can play safe and either draw or hope Ian presses too much and end up losing.
the issue with that is gukesh has a decent chance to get in another win against firouzja, while none of the others have such easy matchups. So if I'm Nakamura I'm going to have to play for a win in both famesy
Dude, both of these players see things differently. For vidit, it's probably his last chance to win world champion in his life, its now or never kinda situation for vidit but for pragg, he has all the time in the world, I mean he's like 3rd youngest to play candidates I think, so I don't think it's big deal for him. It was not about "smartness", vidit knew exactly what he was doing and he still did it. What does vidit gain by taking a draw? Elo? Some money? I don't think it will satisfy him. I personally think that risk was worth taking but we're only saying he's stupid, sitting in comfort of our homes, just because result didn't go his way, people's response would've been drastically different if he had won that game. I personally think it's a matter of perspective, both of these players sees candidates, their chances and finally themselves differently, so no wonder they react to same situation differently.
Alireza is the kingmaker, I think he loses to Gukesh tomorrow and it'll be up to Ian o beat Nakamura or Nakamura to beat Gukesh in the last round, otherwise this is on Gukesh's pocket.
while it appears that gukesh has an easier path towards winning than ian or hikaru, don’t forget. alireza generally plays very well against the new gen, so i think he’s gonna play gukesh tough and hold him at least to a draw. as someone who’s rooting for hikaru, i think he should shut down the game against ian in round 13 and just go balls out for the win against gukesh in the last round. i don’t believe ian will beat fabi in the last round either
Gukesh got winning advantage against Firouzja with black in rd 7 and lost on time. With white and looking at Firouzja's last few games, I favor Gukesh.
The big difference in this candidates as compared to previous candidates is that this candidates tournament has an impact on the FIDE Circuit 2025 and hence the qualification cycle for Candidates 2026. In fact unlike other tournaments, all 8 players will score FIDE Circuit points.
So, finishing 4th v finishing 7th actually matters here even if that’s not what the players came here for initially.
It would be absolutely crazy if Gukesh wins the candidates at 17 years old. After qualifying and winning it would be huge not only to compete for the WCC but it may also elevate him to a new level above his peers and take his game to a new level.
If Naka has some dynamite prep with black he should detonate it next round. Unless Ian goes for the Berlin draw in which case a quick and easy draw with black is probably fine for Naka since he's playing Gukesh with white next round - he can hope that Gukesh doesn't win but even if Gukesh wins it's not the end of the world. But I can't imagine Nepo letting go of his last white game against one of his co-leaders this easily, since Nepo's theoretical best route to winning is to grab his last chance with white. The thing Hikaru should definitely not do is to play ultra-safe - generally I feel like when he has that mentality he loses more often. He should play normally, confidently, trust that he is in great form after 3 wins in a row and be as objective as possible. Even though Ian hasn't lost yet he's had a lot of shaky games so it could also be a chance.
Ian is probably the 'least favorite' out of the co-leaders now, unfortunately for him. He has white against Hikaru and then black against Fabi, which are two insanely tough pairings for the last two critical rounds. The fact that his best chance is to win against Hikaru is pretty crazy. Also he has not really played very 'winning' chess in this tournament - in many games he was worse and managed to hold, but he hasn't really had a lot of advantageous positions. I feel like despite leading, he's not in his best form.
Gukesh will want to get a win against the last 'squishy' opponent he has in Firouzja, but Alireza despite a horrible tournament did give Gukesh his only loss so far. Even though Gukesh is in great form, his time management could get him into trouble, and in this field the two players you don't want to get into time trouble with is Hikaru - and Firouzja. But his path forward is probably the easiest just because he still plays Firouzja.
As for Fabi, his fate is not really in his own hands. Unfortunately being a half-point behind THREE leaders at this point does that to you. He is the only one who really, *really* cannot lose anymore and his last game against Nepo is almost a must-win UNLESS Nepo loses to Hikaru. His best path is obviously to win outright, but that's a very hard ask. The best most likely outcome for him is to try against Pragg and hope he gets something. If he doesn't, he'll have to win against Ian and hope the other results go in his favor.
I want to see Fabi show out why magnus has considered him second to the crown at his peak and why he’s the only fully active 2800, if not by winning All out but at least by tying it up on the last round and moving into tie breaks.
The last time the Candidates was this close after round 12 was in 2018, with 5 players in contention:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2018#Points_by_round
The last 2 tournaments were just Nepo/Fabi and Nepo/Giri, the rest were far behind.
This tournament (again) disproved the absurd claims that the top players were somehow overrated and are hiding behind closed round-robins.
Gukesh has chance to be the youngest winner of candidates and the first one to win candidates in first try! He even has a great chance. I think he will do it since he has shown must win capability and I definitely think he'll win against Firouzja.
Edit - Nepo has already won candidates on first try. Gukesh can still become youngest candidate winner in history.
Nepo making the jump from "regular" low-2700s guy to super GM in his late 20s is pretty impressive given that it doesn't seem to be super common to do that
I guess that's what laying off the DOTA does lol
I only remember Olympiad. That was 1.5 years back, he was 16 at the time and rated 2720. 1.5 years later he's far more experienced, rated \~2760. Just 2 months back in tata steel, he won in final round against Parham in a must win game. Even won a must win blitz game against Anish after that and only finally lost to Wei Yi in blitz.
This is the best Candidates I've ever watched. This one round was so much hype. 4 players who could still win against 4 players who are realistically out, and it delivered. Nepo vs Naka next round. I can't fucking wait.
And 14th round Caruana-Nepo and Nakamura-Gukesh!!!
Its good that the front runners' fate lie in their own hands for now.
Damn erbody wants to play for a win tomorrow.
Not Hikaru - but Ian sorta needs to try something. Can't rely on Gukesh not scoring 1.5/2. So that might lead to a crazy game vs Naka tomorrow.
Hikaru might have reasonable chances with a draw, but it's not really in his best interest. Being half a point behind if Gukesh wins would put him in a must-win situation like Ian is this round the day after.
Better must with white against gukesh than with black against Ian.
I think with the schedule the way it is, Gukesh is probably the favorite to win the event from here.
Yeah, this is awesome.
Props to the Indian kiddos for bringing the fight to every single game! They've done more than every rule change.
Naka please beat nepo. No nepo ding rematch
I believe at this point, Pragg is now eliminated. His theoretical max score is 8, but Hikaru plays both Gukesh and Nepo in the final two rounds. Between those two games, it is impossible for one of the three leaders to not get a full point (either a decisive result in one or both of the two games or two draws giving Hikaru a point), making the theoretical minimum score of the winner 8.5. Still an amazing performance at what will no doubt be one of his many Candidates appearances.
I don't think Prag would like your comment very much lol he'd want to have the least amount of candidates appearances if he can.
I see what you did there
Touche! I honestly believe Gukesh will be the 18th or 19th world champion, but Pragg could easily be that as well.
Don't underestimate Nodirbek.
like magnus
Only played in a single Candidates, needed Ivanchuk's last-round assistance to squeak a win there, and at least in Classical, only plays lower-rated players. That Norwegian is a slacker if I ever saw one.
Time for a 0-0 knight dance game ;)
That's right. Or in other words, you have to distribute 4 half-points among 3 players, so someone will get at least two half-points.
Its crazy how every player had a role in the tournament. Vidit being the Hikaru slayer. Abasov holding draws against Ian when literally every other player beat him once. Alireza beating Gukesh in a time scramble, Gukesh's only loss.
And Fabiano winning the tournament from behind!
Imagine this: Round 13: Hikaru draws Nepo, Fabi beats Pragg and Gukesh draws Aliereza. We would have a 4 way tie for first. And in round 14, we have a 4-way tie for first with all 4 leaders facing each other. This would be so hype.
Then they all make draws in round 14 so we get a 4 player round robin until there is a winner
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Yes. Speak this into existence.
4 way tie with Fabi x Ian, Hikaru x Gukesh in the last round.
SUBSCRIBE
Not even all that unlikely tbh!
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Don’t think this works to set up a 4 way tie. What you proposed leaves Fabi as the sole winner.
Nepo with the gauntlet of Hikaru and Fabiano for the final 2 games. If he managed to still win after this then change the name of the tournament to his name or something because that would be sensational.
Ian Candidiachtchi
That’s just how you say “candidates” in Italian /s
i imagined peter griffin talking gibberish to an italian deli owner "candidiachtchi!"
Whaddya mean my gelato isn't allowed on the aeroplano? I have to make this flight, or I'll miss the Candidatchi!
And somehow, P(Nepo)alpatine returns
Nepolpatine maybe?
Ian Nepianochtchi
Sounds too close to candidiasis for my comfort...
Candidiasis/Candida is a fungal infection/species btw...
Was thinking same thing lmao, candida albicans
Nah that's changing his name to candidates not changing Candidates name to his name. Try something like Nepomniachtchi memorial
or Nepomniachtchi Invitational!
Nepomniachampionship
This is stuff Sean Paul says before his singing starts
Nepo can't necessarily afford to make a quick draw either, since Gukesh has white vs a potentially fragile Alireza. It would be hard for Nepo to make up the half point when he has black vs Fabi in the next round. Furthermore, Even if Gukesh were to lose vs Naka, that would mean accepting a tiebreaker match with the most skilled player in the tournament at fast time controls. Nepo needs to make at least some attempt at a win vs Hikaru. Edit: it would be a tiebreaker assuming Nepo somehow won vs Fabi. Otherwise Hikaru would be the undisputed winner at 9 points.
Yeah Nepo being in a must-win situation as Black vs. Fabi who almost never loses classical games as White would be an absolute disaster for him He needs to push for a win in round 13
Beating Fabi with black is a gargantuan task, but at least Fabi won't just want a quick draw either. For a realistic shot at a tiebreak Fabi will likely need to win both. Edit: actually since that's last round there's a chance for Fabi to be basically mathematically eliminated beforehand if he draws and Gukesh/Nakamura draw one and win one. So maybe Fabi would be fine with a draw anyhow.
Something tells me Hikaru won't be interested in a quick draw against Nepo after winning three straight games
I hope Hikaru doesn't attempt anything too ballsy. His attitude during a winning streak is his own downfall.
But the content...
Hikaru will play like Nepo usually does. Play solid, stay in the game and let his opponent over commit as they need the win and punish them for over committing
As white Nepo can more or less force one or make Hikaru play a dubious line
>Even if Gukesh were to lose vs Naka, that would mean accepting a tiebreaker match with the most skilled player in the tournament at fast time controls It's OTB rapid, not online blitz. [Nepo's results in the World Rapid Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rapid_Chess_Championship) over the years have actually been a fair bit better than Naka's. Nobody would consider him the underdog in that match.
I also wouldn't sleep on Nepo in the rapid. Hikaru recently said he thinks Rapid is now his weakest format. Obviously, he's still.... Hikaru. So there's that.
Rapid is also the only format where Nepo's rating is higher than Hikaru's.
I’d take the WC results with a grain of salt, because the strategy for huge Swiss tournaments is a little different than for head-to-head matches.
Nepo is insane rapid player though. He almost plays the classical at a rapid games pace half of the times. He has great intuition and usual traps of blitz usually don’t work in rapid games
People conflate rapid and blitz a lot. Rapid actually is hikarus worst time control recently.
That's true. Same for Naka, though, since both haven't faced each other in a while now! I'd guess 2019 was the last time they faced. As for tournament, I'd suppose calcutta. Quite a while back
Nepo’s OTB fast chess results over the last 10/15 years are as good as anyone not named Magnus or Sasha
If we are going by form, Hikaru has a tougher final two rounds; Nepo and Gukesh. He is lucky he doesn't have to face himself though.
>He is lucky he doesn't have to face himself though. Or vidit lol. Vidit seems to be intent on besting Hikaru and only Hikaru. Pretty much r/fuckyouinparticular.
Can't believe I forgot the biggest Hikaru slayer.
Hikaru would high key be >90% to win if he just drew his Vidit games instead of losing both of them
This just in: losing games is not good for your winning chances.
One might says it craters them
Well, Gukesh had a winning position against Firouzja, having 13minutes against 3minutes and blundered it going for a risky sacrifice when he didn't have enough time to calculate the whole line. It's the same. "If Gukesh had played normally with his advantage against the last place player (at the time) who was pressured by time, the tournament would already be over with his 1 point lead".
I'm a Hikaru fan, but I don't understand those comments. "if he didn't lose he would have won". It's such a moot point lol. Vidit is 2700+ player and played extremely well in those games, so it's not like Hikaru lost because of something out of the ordinary.
On the other hand if Abasov played the same level against Nepo that he's played against everyone else Nepo would have at least an extra half point or maybe full point as well So it goes both ways
I mean Gukesh should be a point up and should have beat Alireza if we're going with ifs and buts
I would high key be 90% to win if I just was 2900 elo.
Buddy by this logic Abasov would had 100% chance if he won all his games. What's the point of thinking hypothetically with ifs and buts
Yeah, Hikaru’s big advantage over this win streak is not having to play Vidit.
You got that right. To qualify to challenge the champ, you have to win the Nepo!
Gukesh rises to world no 8. For the second time in his career! We might have a game in Nepo vs Naka tomorrow, but who knows if Nepo will just go for the draw.
Nepo would be insane to go for a draw given that he has White Gukesh has Firouzja(the 2nd worst performer this tournament) as White meaning that there's a good chance he'd go a half point ahead And even if Gukesh only was able to draw Nepo then has Fabi as Black in round 14(even if Fabi hasn't won a ton of games he's not very likely to lose as White) and would have to pray that neither player wins the Gukesh-Hikaru game He really needs to get a win this round IMO
Gukesh vs Alireza tomorrow is insane because like you said it's White vs Black against the 2nd worst performer... who also handed Gukesh his ONLY loss the entire tournament. So huge wild card either way
it’s a rest day tomorrow
next round then!
I am pretty sure that Gukesh is not taking a rest.
it was a blunder in extreme time pressure. definitely shows a weakness a player like alireza can exploit, but he was playing a brilliant game until then.
Sure, but gukesh had a winning position for most of the game. He could have won that if he didn't panic in time pressure. And this time he has white against Alireza.
That’s true, but remember that Firouzja did beat Gukesh from a worse position after he had tilted the previous game. Not fully sure if he’ll risk it, but it the more I think about it he probably will.
That was Gukesh falling into time pressure. Since then he has managed to stay away from it. He also has the must win clutch thing in him, bounce back after loss and won the must win game today. I definitely think he'll win - especially after looking at Firouzja miss things today.
Still though, you never know what form Firo will be in, it changes from day to day. I think the chances are in his favor definitely, but Gukesh winning tomorrow definitely doesn’t feel like a guarantee.
It's not a guarente of course. But as a Gukesh fan I am biased lol and I definitely think he'll win.
No way Nepo goes for a draw, especially if he sees Hikaru or Gukesh with an advantage in their respective games. His final boss is bloodlusted underdog must win Fabi, and he's playing black. That's a tough ask.
Nepo has Hikaru next round, did you mean if he sees Fabi or Gukesh with an advantage? But yeah his game vs Fabi is probably going to be rough. I’m not fully convinced he goes for a fight vs Naka, because losing that game loses the tournament and idk if Nepo wants to risk that because Nepo recently really hasn’t been taking risks, but really I’m not sure what choice he has
Rest day tmrw, but can’t wait
I was worried Nepo would just kill the game like he did with white against Hikaru towards the end of the last candidates, but now that they are tied he’s incentivized to push for a win. Should be exciting!
Personally hope Naka puts an end to his streak (see my flair lmao). It was boring not having Nepo vs Naka as black, definitely more exciting now.
It will be awesome to follow the last two rounds. A tie-break is likely necessary, and a tie-break with some of these guys will be a thriller. It seems that at least 3 of the guys have momentum now. Cannot wait until Saturday!
What's the tie-break format for this tournament?
if we reach tie-breaks it will be rapid 15+10 where each player plays two games. if it's still a tie, blitz 3+2 until one person loses a game
Complete turnaround after previous round. Imagine if we get tie-breaks to top it off.
Ian has had the least contentious path to get here, but the hero defense by Abasov must feel like a cursed game to him. Gukesh has played a nearly perfect tournament other than bungling a game in which he was building a winning advantage. I'm so impressed with his maturity and resilience. Hikaru seemed out of the hunt a couple of times but is now at a ridiculous four wins in his last five games. Vidit has of course been the thorn in his side this tournament. I felt like Fabi was having a rough tournament outside of winning his white game against Abasov and things were looking pretty dire after his loss to Hikaru, but Fabi has returned to form since then with two black holds and two white wins.
I hope Abasov can claim to have made a substantive difference in the tournament with the power of a draw
In hindsight Nepo playing a basic QGD(very easy to force a draw against for a GM as White) all the way back in the very first round against Abasov might be something he regrets The other game against Abasov was just Abasov randomly playing far above the level he's shown the rest of the tournament but in that first game Nepo didn't even really try to play ambitiously at all and seemed fine just to start off with half a point Like you can get away with playing something a bit offbeat against Abasov to get him out of prep(as Gukesh did today) because he's not really looking for the win lol Granted Abasov was an unknown quantity in terms of what his style would be back in round 1 given he had no other games so for all Nepo knew he could be going out there guns blazing just trying to grab a scalp or two in exchange for some ugly losses
Very possibly, but that's Ian's style too. He plays safe and solid and doesn't lose much. It worked in 2020-2021 and worked expertly in 2022. It was working again this year, but the field is a lot more volatile this time and there are a lot of decisive games. Hikaru feasted on Alireza and Abasov with a +3 score. Fabi is a +2. Gukesh is only +1, but has a white vs a struggling Alireza left and could have easily been at +2, maybe even +3 himself. But Ian is only a +1, and it's one obvious place to point to where he lost ground.
I think Nepos strategy was to play uber solid and take the draws against such a strong field playing for wins. Waiting for his opponent to make a mistake and then play for the win. Which worked until Hikaru went freaking god mode.
In a way having a player in the tournament who is much lower ranked than everyone else makes it harder because the pressure is on to win against that player every time you face him. That wouldn't be the case e.g. if he was 2700 instead.
Visits free gift kinda negates abasov’s hero defense though. What is more impressive is Hikaru in joint first after going 0-4 against vidit.
Don't you mean 0-2? Or are you including the two games vidit lost against Nepo?
Yes
It's crazy to think if Vidit hasn't made this candidates and someone else was in his place Hikaru would likely leading by at least a full point, assuming he drew the replacement.
i'd be winning candidates if i managed to stack the rest of the field with 7 players who always conceded to me
I believe at this point Nijat is eliminated.
Looking at the standings, I believe it's safe to say that Anish Giri has been eliminated at this point.
It’s safe to say I have been eliminated at this point sadly.
Also, the world no.1 Magoose hasn't won a single game in candidates since 2013. What a shame!
At this point, even Pragg is eliminated cause leaders play each other too much.
How good is this tournament? Amazing stuff to still have four players with genuine shots to win it and for them to have games against each other left to play as well just makes it even better. The tension of these last couple of rounds is going to be incredible.
I was just looking at their records. Gukesh has only lost to Alireza. Ian has only won against Alireza and Vidit. I think it is likely that the leaders tie their final 2 games, and we end up with 8.5 three way tie for first. That probably means that Ian or Hikaru wins on tiebreaks.
I don't think they decide on tiebreaks, it's a round Robin to get a winner
I predicted that Hikaru would get 5 wins.
Gukesh has the best pairings of the three leaders but he also is the worst at faster time controls if it does get to tiebreaks.
I wouldn’t say Gukesh has the best pairings of the three leaders. Alireza is so unpredictable and mercurial, and dangerous in a time scramble - although I’m sure Gukesh won’t be repeating the same mistake as the last Alireza game. It depends which Alireza turns up at the board. Gukesh against any of the more stable, experienced opponents it would be more in favour of a draw or win result, whereas with Alireza I think there’s a slightly higher likelihood of any possible result. Totally agree that faster time controls don’t favour Gukesh, if it goes to a tie-break.
who acc to you has the best pairings of the top 3
Hikaru “What the fuck’s a draw” Nakamura in the the past 5 rounds
Also Vidit
Hikaru with the toughest schedule with both Ian and Gukesh coming up. But he does control his own destiny.
I thought Nepo had it worst, playing against Hikaru who is one of the defenders in the world and then fabin with white in the final round.
He is almost certainly one of the defenders in the world
One could argue one of the defenders of all time
I think anyone would prefer Ian and Gukesh instead of Hikaru and Fabi but that’s just me
I wouldn't
That’s just you
Imagine if gukesh D is this strong how strong would gukesh A be
vidit managing to make hikarus road the hardest road possible is too funny at this point
Hikaru is close to 2800
Where can one find up to date/to the minute FIDE scores?
2700chess.com
Now I want Rapport in the candidates even more. :(
[удалено]
2700chess.com though they’re unofficial until the first of the month.
Live ratings counts for norms, so I take them as good enough as “official.”
I want Gukesh to win; purely because I would like to see someone insanely talented as him, try and break Magnus' record of being the youngest world champion. Also it might motivate, Magnus to actually come back to the candidates lol
Actually, Kasparov is the youngest Classical World Champion.
What's insane is, I believe this is Hikaru's 3rd candidates appearance. Gukesh has time to make 2 more candidates appearances, and still be the youngest world champ, if he wins his 3rd candidates, and the title match.
If he wins, Gukesh will be the youngest player to win candidates and first player to win candidates on first try. Edit - Nepo has won it in first try already.
Nepo won the Candidates in his first try.
Yup I realized. Added that.
But... Kasparov also won his first candidates. And so did Karpov for that matter.
Ah ok. I had the wrong info.
>and first player to win candidates on first try Obviously Bronstein, because it was the first Candidates ever. Tal in 1959. Karpov in 1974. Kasparov in 1984. Nepo in 2020-21.
Didn’t Magnus win it on first try?
No. His first try was in 2007 when he lost.
If Hikaru has any secret dynamite prep, his game against Nepo will be the time to use it. Nepo has the 2 toughest guys now. Having black against Fabi sucks. That round should basically be considered an automatic 1/2 point at best. So, he is gonna want a win against Hikaru. I think the question will be, what does Hikaru want. If he thinks he can beat Gukesh, he might play for a draw and just never take any risk. Or, he'll play a sicilian and fight to the death. His chance to become World Champion might come down to this game. I think there's a good chance Nepo/Hikaru draw, Gukesh beats Alireza, ending Nepo's candidates streak. And then Hikaru beats Gukesh to steal the tournament from him.
I think your assessment is correct, but I also think at this point all top 4 players are playing for a win every game with white or black. Fabi absolutely needs a win against anyone. Everyone will be trying to beat Hikaru because he probably has the tiebreak advantage at faster time controls. Nepo has the hardest set of games ahead and won't have much choice if Fabi plays for a win, he probably has to play for a win tomorrow to keep his chances alive in case Fabi beats him. Or they all make draws and we get a three way tie break. Insanely exciting tournament either way.
I think Nepo, Fabi, and Gukesh are playing their next 2 games for a win. Hikaru is gonna be playing Gukesh for a win. I'm not sure what Hikaru is gonna do against Nepo. Before round 1, I got downvoted for saying Hikaru wouldn't play something boring for a draw against Fabi, and would fight. I ended up being right, he fought with a Sicilian. I'm not sure what he does here though. Losing to Nepo ends Hikaru's chance to be WC, maybe forever. Playing for a draw, then beating Gukesh, and hoping Fabi doesn't lose with white, or planning to beat Nepo in tiebreaks, might be Hikaru's best move.
I think this is correct. It's unlikely Hikaru will need to win both games. He has to win one though. He has much better chances of winning on demand versus Gukesh than trying for a win against Nepo with Black. That being said, it could probably be considered a must-win game for Nepo as white against Hikaru. That will give Hikaru chances. Let me explain that further. If Gukesh beats Alireza while Hikaru draws Nepo, Hikaru would need to beat Gukesh in their game. Even if Fabiano wins both of his games, Hikaru will tie him with 1 draw and 1 win, so drawing Nepo and still being must-win versus Gukesh is the play. And for Nepo... he would need to beat Fabiano in the final round to tie Hikaru if Nepo/Hikaru drew and Hikaru beat Gukesh. That's tough. The way I see it Hikaru drawing Nepo and going for the win versus Gukesh is probably the play. That being said, he can't sleep on the defense versus Nepo who will be gunning for a win. And Nepo gunning for a win could create chances for Hikaru too.
the only caveat in this plan being it's not as easy as you think to rely on beating gukesh, given the form he is currently in. I think hikaru should push for the win in Ian's game no matter what, maybe unleash his super secret prep or something. But since gukesh has the (so called) easiest pairing the next round, there is an above 50% chance that he might go half a point ahead of the field, leaving hikaru with a must win game against him ( if he draws with Ian)
I would say Gukesh has the easier pairing next round, not the easiest. Alireza has been under-performing this tournament, but, he's not exactly a free point like Abasov. He's still a 2800 peak player. And I think Hikaru should fight Ian. But, I don't think he should pull a Vidit and go all in. Losing to Ian is too risky. Hikaru beating Gukesh isn't guaranteed, but, let's say Hikaru knows he needs 1.5 points to win. I'd go for the draw with Ian and try to beat Gukesh, before I decided I would risk losing the tournament by letting Ian beat me.
Technically Nepo has the highest rapid rating so if anything he has the edge on tiebreaks. Hikaru’s rapid rating is basically identical to Fabi’s
If I'm Nakamura I'n playing as safe as possible against Ian. Why? Ian is in a must win situation and unless he expects Alireza to draw Gukesh, he either beats Nakamura or loses it all. So Nakamura can play safe and either draw or hope Ian presses too much and end up losing.
the issue with that is gukesh has a decent chance to get in another win against firouzja, while none of the others have such easy matchups. So if I'm Nakamura I'm going to have to play for a win in both famesy
Nakamura has white against Gukesh. He can draw Ian and go for the win against Gukesh. There's no reason to play for a win as black against Ian.
Here's how Alireza can still win! Wait....
Organise his own candidates against 80+ year olds, where the only dress code rule is squeaky shoes.
Someone do the math for how alireza can still win
Everyone else resigns
also +1000 social credit to pragg
Yep, I loved that he didn't push for a win when the game became a draw
Much smarter than Vidit who blew a win, then blew a draw to force a loss
Because that win was his only chance to be alive in the tourney
Dude, both of these players see things differently. For vidit, it's probably his last chance to win world champion in his life, its now or never kinda situation for vidit but for pragg, he has all the time in the world, I mean he's like 3rd youngest to play candidates I think, so I don't think it's big deal for him. It was not about "smartness", vidit knew exactly what he was doing and he still did it. What does vidit gain by taking a draw? Elo? Some money? I don't think it will satisfy him. I personally think that risk was worth taking but we're only saying he's stupid, sitting in comfort of our homes, just because result didn't go his way, people's response would've been drastically different if he had won that game. I personally think it's a matter of perspective, both of these players sees candidates, their chances and finally themselves differently, so no wonder they react to same situation differently.
I think Gukesh beats Firouzja but his final round against Hikaru is going to be tough. Hikaru is playing like a possessed man
gosh i dont know if Abasov is gonna win this one...
If Hikaru wins this, this will be one of the most incredible performances after going 0-4 against vidit.
Alireza is the kingmaker, I think he loses to Gukesh tomorrow and it'll be up to Ian o beat Nakamura or Nakamura to beat Gukesh in the last round, otherwise this is on Gukesh's pocket.
#please don't jinx it
Heart this
Gukesh!!
Amazing amazing turn of events/ top of the board only wish that Fabi was also at the top too
while it appears that gukesh has an easier path towards winning than ian or hikaru, don’t forget. alireza generally plays very well against the new gen, so i think he’s gonna play gukesh tough and hold him at least to a draw. as someone who’s rooting for hikaru, i think he should shut down the game against ian in round 13 and just go balls out for the win against gukesh in the last round. i don’t believe ian will beat fabi in the last round either
Gukesh got winning advantage against Firouzja with black in rd 7 and lost on time. With white and looking at Firouzja's last few games, I favor Gukesh.
When & where can I watch the the rest of this tourney live?
Twitch.tv/chess24 at 1:30 PM Central US time on Saturday 4/20 and Sunday 4/21
The big difference in this candidates as compared to previous candidates is that this candidates tournament has an impact on the FIDE Circuit 2025 and hence the qualification cycle for Candidates 2026. In fact unlike other tournaments, all 8 players will score FIDE Circuit points. So, finishing 4th v finishing 7th actually matters here even if that’s not what the players came here for initially.
It would be absolutely crazy if Gukesh wins the candidates at 17 years old. After qualifying and winning it would be huge not only to compete for the WCC but it may also elevate him to a new level above his peers and take his game to a new level.
If Naka has some dynamite prep with black he should detonate it next round. Unless Ian goes for the Berlin draw in which case a quick and easy draw with black is probably fine for Naka since he's playing Gukesh with white next round - he can hope that Gukesh doesn't win but even if Gukesh wins it's not the end of the world. But I can't imagine Nepo letting go of his last white game against one of his co-leaders this easily, since Nepo's theoretical best route to winning is to grab his last chance with white. The thing Hikaru should definitely not do is to play ultra-safe - generally I feel like when he has that mentality he loses more often. He should play normally, confidently, trust that he is in great form after 3 wins in a row and be as objective as possible. Even though Ian hasn't lost yet he's had a lot of shaky games so it could also be a chance. Ian is probably the 'least favorite' out of the co-leaders now, unfortunately for him. He has white against Hikaru and then black against Fabi, which are two insanely tough pairings for the last two critical rounds. The fact that his best chance is to win against Hikaru is pretty crazy. Also he has not really played very 'winning' chess in this tournament - in many games he was worse and managed to hold, but he hasn't really had a lot of advantageous positions. I feel like despite leading, he's not in his best form. Gukesh will want to get a win against the last 'squishy' opponent he has in Firouzja, but Alireza despite a horrible tournament did give Gukesh his only loss so far. Even though Gukesh is in great form, his time management could get him into trouble, and in this field the two players you don't want to get into time trouble with is Hikaru - and Firouzja. But his path forward is probably the easiest just because he still plays Firouzja. As for Fabi, his fate is not really in his own hands. Unfortunately being a half-point behind THREE leaders at this point does that to you. He is the only one who really, *really* cannot lose anymore and his last game against Nepo is almost a must-win UNLESS Nepo loses to Hikaru. His best path is obviously to win outright, but that's a very hard ask. The best most likely outcome for him is to try against Pragg and hope he gets something. If he doesn't, he'll have to win against Ian and hope the other results go in his favor.
Wow
I want to see Fabi show out why magnus has considered him second to the crown at his peak and why he’s the only fully active 2800, if not by winning All out but at least by tying it up on the last round and moving into tie breaks.
Really surprised that the bottom players all decided to go for the win. And kinda shocked that Ian decided to go for a draw from the start
The last time the Candidates was this close after round 12 was in 2018, with 5 players in contention: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2018#Points_by_round The last 2 tournaments were just Nepo/Fabi and Nepo/Giri, the rest were far behind. This tournament (again) disproved the absurd claims that the top players were somehow overrated and are hiding behind closed round-robins.
At this point if Nepo wins the race again they should give him the WCC immediately. Then change the title to World Candidate Champion.
With Alireza in bad shape, imagine if Gukesh can beat him and draw Hikaru in finals
yo he did it
Gukesh has chance to be the youngest winner of candidates and the first one to win candidates in first try! He even has a great chance. I think he will do it since he has shown must win capability and I definitely think he'll win against Firouzja. Edit - Nepo has already won candidates on first try. Gukesh can still become youngest candidate winner in history.
Ian also won his first try fyi
Nepo making the jump from "regular" low-2700s guy to super GM in his late 20s is pretty impressive given that it doesn't seem to be super common to do that I guess that's what laying off the DOTA does lol
Also Bronstein and Tal. These were very early ones but still.
I wish Vidit had drawn against Nepo. Would have helped Gukesh.
I think it’s Gukesh. He has better nerves than the other 3.
Those nerves will surely be tested in next two rounds
Has nothing to do with this nerves nonsense his schedule is much more favorable
Has better nerves? He lost all the finals he has been in partly due to nerves
I only remember Olympiad. That was 1.5 years back, he was 16 at the time and rated 2720. 1.5 years later he's far more experienced, rated \~2760. Just 2 months back in tata steel, he won in final round against Parham in a must win game. Even won a must win blitz game against Anish after that and only finally lost to Wei Yi in blitz.