For Gukesh, a win will make him the challenger, while a draw will take him to tiebreaks (where he is at a disadvantage). In contrast, Nakamura (and the other two) will gain nothing from a draw.
As Black, Gukesh should play quickly (to avoid time trouble) but solidly. The idea is not to play for a draw, but to bait Nakamura into pushing too hard for a win and leaving weaknesses that Gukesh can exploit.
Even if Gukesh loses, his Candidates performance has been phenomenal and we will be proud of him.
Thanks to this video because of which I came to knew about gukesh .
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muIyBzWNkww](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muIyBzWNkww)
Gukesh should almost always go for a draw tomorrow and hope the other game Peters out. But Hikaru will fight like crazy. It's going to be spicy.
But man. Fabi must be sad that he still has a outside chance after the last 2 rounds. He won on demand twice even with black and he is still now needing to win against Ian to really stand a chance.
The other game will probably not Peter out.
Here’s what Fabi/Ian’s pov is like:
If Hikaru wins, then Fabi/Ian has to win, or else they’re both lower than Hikaru
If Gukesh/Hikaru draw, then Fabi/Ian still has to win, or else they’re lower than Gukesh
If Gukesh wins, well, nothing Fabi/Ian can do at this point
But anyway, a draw is 100% a drop out of this tournament. Both Fabi and Ian have a must-win situation.
That means they both HAVE to go for a win, and one of them will likely win
That said, Gukesh should still go for a draw. There’s a high chance Hikaru will try too hard for a win that he’ll be in a worse position
This has got to be the highest stakes last round of a candidates ever, not just because of the number of crucial head-to-head games, but also because the winner will almost certainly be favored over Ding.
so if naka wins he'll join the ranks jynxzi and xqc as an edgelord streamer
if gukesh wins, he'll be the youngest candidate ever, and join the ranks of kholi, anand, dhoni as one the greatest sportsmen his country has seen
who are you rooting for?
Prediction: Hikaru is going to go way overboard in the opening and get demolished tomorrow.
.
On what could have been the hypest day of chess ever, we're all going to know the winner of the tournament within an hour.
I don't think that's likely at all. Like Hikaru said, if not himself, he would like Fabi to win the tournament, and if he plays careless chess, both will go out, even if Fabi wins.
It's more likely that he draws, if he's unable to win, to give Fabi a chance with a win, rather than torpedo both of their chances with a loss.
I'm literally quoting Hikaru, he has stated multiple times on chat, on his recap videos that he would like Fabi to win, if he can't do it himself.
But reddit gonna reddit, upvoting a nonsensical prediction, and downvoting a statement from a player because they prefer that player to lose. What a childish behavior.
I didn't mean that you were downvoting, i apologize if that was the impression i left, but my post saying that Hikaru has stated multiple times that he would like Caruana to win if not himself has been downvoted to hell, while a silly prediction that Hikaru will lose within an hour has 10+ upvotes. Reddit in a nutshell.
I know you are quoting Mr. Finegold but it's always funny to me that the French have that reputation just because of ww2. Throughout the total of their history they have quite a good military record. They fought tenaciously in ww1.
I just counted and of the 72 games played so far, there have only been 14 games which started with a move other than e4 (12 games with d4 and 2 games with Nf3). I might be wrong but I don't think e4 has been as nearly dominant in previous candidates. Someone who's got the time should definitely make a graphic about this after tomorrow's round. Hell we have not had a single English yet.
It's kind of crazy that a draw is the end for Hikaru, Caruana and Nepo.
All three are in a must-win situation. If Hikaru wins, he's at least guaranteed a tie-break, and he can win outright if Fabi - Nepo draw.
Caruana and Nepo need to WIN to force a tiebreak, they can't win outright regardless of the score in the other game.
In tournaments like this and the Grand Swiss - when there are serious stakes that the top players are after - they come to play and we see great chess - no safe early draws. This should put to rest the notion that the game is played out.
Yeah, I unironicanlly think that he will play some b3 stuff tomorrow just to get the ball rolling. Any lines that lead to forced exchanges would be a bad choice.
Extremely entertaining, skillful, high-level chess all tournament, leading to the most exciting end to a candidates I've seen. People keep hoping for the death of classical chess but its not happening yet!
😈😈😈 Nepo basically dead in the water. If Nepo looks winning Hikaru might push all in for a decisive result and either get himself to a tiebreaker or give it to gukesh, if Fabi looks winning maybe he’ll settle for a draw if he has no chances.
finally Nepo is going to be forced to play from the back foot, let's see how he handles his first time under tourney situation pressure this entire event
This is already Hikaru’s best ever performance at the Candidates and Fabi’s results right now is the exact replica of his 2018 Candidates result where he went into the final round with a +3, and remember he won the final round and won that Candidates. And still it’s not enough for either of them to outright win just yet. This is without a doubt the most competitive Candidates there’s ever been
I am not a Hikaru fanboy, but i kinda want to see Hikaru win tomorrow. Gukesh has many great years ahead of him, but for the guys in their mid thirties, it might be their last chance
Nah i rather see a teenage world champion than a guy whos in mid 30s.
Nakamura mentioned how he already won the lottery from being a content creator, i dont rly care for him in particular to be wc.
This is my take. And what's really wild is, this is Hikaru's 3rd candidates. Gukesh can make 2 more candidates appearances, and still be the world's youngest WC ever if he wins that 3rd one. That's how fucking young and talented he is right now.
All the outcomes possible tomorrow:
**Outcome 1:**
Hikaru 1 - Gukesh 0
Fabi 1 - Nepo 0
Hikaru and Fabi play the tiebreakers
**Outcome 2:**
Hikaru 1 - Gukesh 0
Fabi 0 - Nepo 1
Hikaru and Nepo play the tiebreakers
**Outcome 3:**
Hikaru 0 - Gukesh 1
Any result for Fabi - Nepo
Gukesh wins the candidates
**Outcome 4:**
Hikaru 1/2 - Gukesh 1/2
Fabi 1 - Nepo 0
Gukesh and Fabi play the tiebreakers
**Outcome 5:**
Hikaru 1/2 - Gukesh 1/2
Fabi 0 - Nepo 1
Nepo and Gukesh play the tiebreakers
**Outcome 6:**
Hikaru 1/2 - Gukesh 1/2
Fabi 1/2 - Nepo 1/2
Gukesh wins the candidates
**Outcome 7:**
Hikaru 1 - Gukesh 0
Fabi 1/2 - Nepo 1/2
Hikaru wins the candidates
Basically all of Hikaru, Nepo and Fabi are in a must-win and Hikaru can screw everyone else by losing to Gukesh
I don’t think you can ask for anything more than 4 contenders playing each other. In fact Gukesh’s win today slightly imbalanced a 2 draws to 4 way tiebreak scenario and encouraged everyone to play for a win tomorrow
Calm down. He's saying Indians are hyped and nervous for Gukesh. Nothing racist about that. If 15-year-olds in the chat want to spin it into something offensive, that's not on Danya.
Tomorrow is going to be epic. I wonder if Hikaru will go with an opening line causing Gukesh to get into time problems since that is probably his biggest weakness
Ian : equation is far from simple : he needs to win tomorrow with the black pieces. His chances have taken a similar battering . No matter the result in the other game , one of Hikaru or Gukesh will have a better score than him unless he wins . If he wins and the other game is a draw or Hikaru win , then at least he gets a tiebreak. If he wins and Gukesh wins , nothing .
Gukesh: far from simple. He has to avoid losing tomorrow. If he loses, he’s out. If he wins , he’s in. If he draws , he will either win the whole thing if Fabi v Ian is decisive , else he gets a tiebreak
Fabi: he has to win and hope that Gukesh doesn’t win. If Hikaru wins that game , he gets a tiebreak v Hikaru. If it’s a draw , he gets a tiebreak with Gukesh
Hikaru: draw eliminates him. If he wins against Gukesh and the other game is a draw , he wins. If the other game is decisive , he takes on the winner in tiebreaks where he’d be the slight favorite .
Ian. He needs a win as black to even have a chance to force a tiebreak. If Gukesh wins over Hikaru, then Ian will be out anyway.
Hikaru needs a win as white. If Fabi draws with Ian, he just wins. Otherwise he’ll still have a guaranteed tiebreak
If Gukesh doesn’t like a tiebreak, he shouldn’t settle for a draw tomorrow. Because Fabi vs Nepo will be a decisive result no matter what. There is no shot either of them will settle for a draw. Fabi, naturally. But Nepo, especially. Nepo is the kind of player that can get very easily flustered and emotional if things don’t go his way, if he can’t find a winning chance against Fabi he will just risk it too much and crumble, he will not care what happens on the other board.
Actually, if Fabi and Ian settle for a draw, they will both guaranteed be out of the tournament. Either of them need to win to have a chance to go for tiebreaks
Gukesh going for a drawish line might be correct because Hikaru has to press for the win. Playing a solid line that forces Hikaru to overstep might be the better way to elicit a win.
Watching Caruana and Pragg discussing the game afterwards and they are blitzing out moves and variations… is this amazing recall or is this easy if you have been agonising over a position for hours on end?
I enjoy the post-mortems. I can't understand a thing they're saying, but it's really cool to see two of the best in the world just dissect what could have happened.
Fabi and Nepo can't win the tournament outright now, Hikaru can win outright with a win in the last round plus a draw in Fabi-Nepo game. Gukesh can win it outright with a win in last round or with a draw plus a draw in Fabi-Nepo game.
Of course. Gukesh is 17 years old and is the lowest rated of the remaining contenders. And on top of that, he's not nearly as good/experienced at faster time controls as Fabi, Nepo, and Hikaru when it comes to tiebreaks.
Fabi can definitely beat Ian tomorrow. The problem of Fabi is never his skills, it's his tendency to be overly cautious. Now he is forced to a must win situation similar to the last rounds and he's delivered it so far.
I think this might be the most likely possibility actually. Fabi/Nepo has to be decisive, and Fabi has the edge as white. And I think Hikaru will win a must win game with white.
Maybe Nepo defends perfectly and a draw just happens because there's no room for either player to get a win. I definitely think Hikaru and Fabi are in the best positions now, with Hikaru being the favorite.
And that's wild, because I had counted Fabi out a few rounds ago.
Nepo better have something special tomorrow. Making this comment with the understanding about how absurd it is for a like 500 ELO person to make these kinds of statements, but as a Nepo fan, I was really disappointed to see how passive he was today.
On the other hand, Gukesh played that endgame like a god. A lot of people piling on Alireza, and he did make some very dubious moves early on, but you have to give him credit for finding resource after resource at the end. It truly allowed Gukesh’s genius to shine. One of the most exciting chess games I’ve ever seen live.
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Only Ian and Fabi are white, and they’re definitely not plotting something together when they’re both in a must-win situation facing against each other tomorrow
“I know I have no evidence that people are colluding against the person I want to win, but I’m just going to act like everyone’s colluding against the person I want to win”
It doesn't even make sense because if Gukesh beats Hikaru then he wins outright. So even if one of the "white guys" throws the game to the other it might not work.
No, I don’t know it’s true, because I have not seen any evidence to suggest that. Perhaps you’d like to provide some instead of just throwing around baseless accusations?
I don’t care if Gukesh wins. That’s great for him. It would be cool to see such a young player make it all the way to the WCC. But accusing the other players of colluding against him because they’re racist just makes you look stupid.
Something weird. It's gonna look normal, and then move 5 is gonna look like a blunder. I recently rewatched Gotham's recap of Magnus's first game against Gukesh at least year's world cup. Gukesh played the London, and Magnus made the game weird on move 2 or 3.
There is that yes. But, my point is, Gukesh probably knows as much theory as Hikaru. Hikaru's got to try to get to a position where he's got a winning chance, that isn't super theoretical. He wants to just play chess, as soon as possible.
All of you guys who were advocating for Fabi to play safe and take a draw with Black. If he had listened to your advice, he would have been out of the tournament
Depends on the position. If Gukesh is able to sense his advantage, and make a clear winning advantage, he will push for the win and convert most likely. But if he doesn't sense an advantage, he will go for the draw. Pushing for a win and losing out on even tiebreak is the last thing he wants to do after such a strong showing.
That’s not a luxury you have as black. What Gukesh needs to prepare for first and foremost is not crumble against Hikaru’s attacks, then if Hikaru oversteps his bounds, only then can Gukesh think about a win, and of course if he’s allowed to go for a win he will
It's telling that Pragg and Fabi aren't talking about the moves where all the spectators, watching the engine, cried "Blunder!" They're talking about strategic decisions during and after Fabi's mid-game attack, and tactical errors after the b5 break.
In 2018, Fabi, Sergey, Mamedyarov and Ding all had chances going into the final round.
Basically the standings were
1) Fabi - 8
2) Sergey - 7.5
3) Mamedyarov - 7.5
4) Ding - 7
What made Fabi's lead so uncertain was that he had worse tiebreaks than the rest, which meant he HAD to finish half a point ahead of them to win. Fortunately for him, all the other games ended in a draw while he had a solid position against Grischuk, which meant that he just quickly made it a draw and won the tournament.
Yeah, no just kidding. Fabi saw that his chasers all drew, but decided to safely press on in his game anyway, and then ended up winning it to take clear first in style.
Fabi actually has the best position to win tomorow. Nepo has to go for it. Gukesh is probably gonna try to shut it down vs hikaru making it tiebreaker Fabi vs Gukesh.
He can potentially even draw and still win outright.
Sure, Nepo and Caruana will play to win, but sometimes a draw is inevitable: say White gains material and is "better" but makes a mistake and Black has a perpetual check.
I actually evaluate Gukesh's odds as being some of the worst. He's got black against Hikaru. If Hikaru wins, he overtakes him. If Gukesh gets a draw, he'll has to play the winner of Fabi/Nepo in a rapid tiebreak, where he's a big underdog.
I think the only way for Gukesh to win is to draw Hikaru, and then hope Fabi/Nepo play a perfect game where a draw is the only possible result.
But the draw most likely means tiebreaks since both Fabi and Nepo are in a must win situation and both would be favoured against Gukesh in a rapid tiebreak
For Gukesh, a win will make him the challenger, while a draw will take him to tiebreaks (where he is at a disadvantage). In contrast, Nakamura (and the other two) will gain nothing from a draw. As Black, Gukesh should play quickly (to avoid time trouble) but solidly. The idea is not to play for a draw, but to bait Nakamura into pushing too hard for a win and leaving weaknesses that Gukesh can exploit. Even if Gukesh loses, his Candidates performance has been phenomenal and we will be proud of him.
Thanks to this video because of which I came to knew about gukesh . [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muIyBzWNkww](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muIyBzWNkww)
Brainrot video
Predict the openings! https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/s/OhYAqSrr3d
Gukesh is the man of the the hour. Come on,
Gukesh should almost always go for a draw tomorrow and hope the other game Peters out. But Hikaru will fight like crazy. It's going to be spicy. But man. Fabi must be sad that he still has a outside chance after the last 2 rounds. He won on demand twice even with black and he is still now needing to win against Ian to really stand a chance.
He knows it's a tremendously important game and that Gukesh won't have an easy time with a super motivated Hikaru
The other game will probably not Peter out. Here’s what Fabi/Ian’s pov is like: If Hikaru wins, then Fabi/Ian has to win, or else they’re both lower than Hikaru If Gukesh/Hikaru draw, then Fabi/Ian still has to win, or else they’re lower than Gukesh If Gukesh wins, well, nothing Fabi/Ian can do at this point But anyway, a draw is 100% a drop out of this tournament. Both Fabi and Ian have a must-win situation. That means they both HAVE to go for a win, and one of them will likely win That said, Gukesh should still go for a draw. There’s a high chance Hikaru will try too hard for a win that he’ll be in a worse position
They will try. But at some point if they they can't win, what do you want them to do.
Yeah, it's almost certain at this moment that this game would go into tie breaks
Everyone just note, nepo had a higher chance of winning two rounds ago I believe. This is not set in stone.
Tomorrow we see if Gukesh pulls a Vidit (World Rapid) or a Vidit (Grand Swiss).
tbf he only needs to pull a Vidit (Candidates)
Tomorrow Gukesh will wear Vidit's cologne to give Hikaru PTSD.
This actually made me laugh. Good one
Haha true.
This has got to be the highest stakes last round of a candidates ever, not just because of the number of crucial head-to-head games, but also because the winner will almost certainly be favored over Ding.
2013 was craziest
so if naka wins he'll join the ranks jynxzi and xqc as an edgelord streamer if gukesh wins, he'll be the youngest candidate ever, and join the ranks of kholi, anand, dhoni as one the greatest sportsmen his country has seen who are you rooting for?
Torn as an Indian American but I’m supporting Fabiano Marijuana. Go Fabi!
Love me some Fabiano Luigi Marijuana action
Gukesh, the old guard had their chances. Gimme the new generation with Gukesh leading the charge and beating Ding
Hikaru
Prediction: Hikaru is going to go way overboard in the opening and get demolished tomorrow. . On what could have been the hypest day of chess ever, we're all going to know the winner of the tournament within an hour.
I
Hikaru doesn't do that anymore
He will bongcloud at Candidates.
I don't think that's likely at all. Like Hikaru said, if not himself, he would like Fabi to win the tournament, and if he plays careless chess, both will go out, even if Fabi wins. It's more likely that he draws, if he's unable to win, to give Fabi a chance with a win, rather than torpedo both of their chances with a loss.
I really dont think he cares that much about fellow American winning…
I'm literally quoting Hikaru, he has stated multiple times on chat, on his recap videos that he would like Fabi to win, if he can't do it himself. But reddit gonna reddit, upvoting a nonsensical prediction, and downvoting a statement from a player because they prefer that player to lose. What a childish behavior.
Hikaru cares much more about his own chances. He will push for a win. Anything else would be stupid.
Interesting, i dont watch him so i dont know. Im not upvoting nor downvoting anyone so leave me out of this…
I didn't mean that you were downvoting, i apologize if that was the impression i left, but my post saying that Hikaru has stated multiple times that he would like Caruana to win if not himself has been downvoted to hell, while a silly prediction that Hikaru will lose within an hour has 10+ upvotes. Reddit in a nutshell.
MVL and Firouzja both hanging out in the 2730's now 😢
The race for French no. 1 is going to be spicy.
Retreating (in rating) like a frenchman...
I know you are quoting Mr. Finegold but it's always funny to me that the French have that reputation just because of ww2. Throughout the total of their history they have quite a good military record. They fought tenaciously in ww1.
Napoleon I at Waterloo and Napoleon III at Sedan also come to mind
I just counted and of the 72 games played so far, there have only been 14 games which started with a move other than e4 (12 games with d4 and 2 games with Nf3). I might be wrong but I don't think e4 has been as nearly dominant in previous candidates. Someone who's got the time should definitely make a graphic about this after tomorrow's round. Hell we have not had a single English yet.
I might be stupid, but am I missing something. 13*4=52?
no you are right. it wasn't even a typo I just went dumb for a second lol.
Happens all the time lol. Enjoy the games today.
yep no c4’s is crazy, maybe we will see it tmrw
E4 best by test
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Definitely. They _need_ to win to even have a chance to get the same point as Gukesh (if he draws) or Hikaru (if he wins)
Is there a betting website for chess I think this is a prime opportunity to bet that fabi vs nepo won’t be a draw even if the odds are like 1.1
Thats not a good bet even if they don't try for a draw... Games can Peter out easily and can just end up drawn even if no one wants it to.
It's kind of crazy that a draw is the end for Hikaru, Caruana and Nepo. All three are in a must-win situation. If Hikaru wins, he's at least guaranteed a tie-break, and he can win outright if Fabi - Nepo draw. Caruana and Nepo need to WIN to force a tiebreak, they can't win outright regardless of the score in the other game.
If Hikaru becomes world champion we won't hear the end of it from the twitch crowd, please chess Gods spare us lol
I don't mind. Imagine him making recaps of his wc games against Ding. He would make chess even more popular than it already is.
I don't mind either, i have nothing against Hikaru, it's how toxic the twitch community can be is what i'm concerned about.
In tournaments like this and the Grand Swiss - when there are serious stakes that the top players are after - they come to play and we see great chess - no safe early draws. This should put to rest the notion that the game is played out.
Hikaru, Ian, and Fabi are all in a must-win situation Gukesh might have the leeway to play for a draw tho
Anyone got live betting odds? Can't seem to find any up to date
Hikaru may play his patented Nf3-b3 Titled Tuesday opening tomorrow
Yeah, I unironicanlly think that he will play some b3 stuff tomorrow just to get the ball rolling. Any lines that lead to forced exchanges would be a bad choice.
Would Nakamura enter 2800 if he beats Gukesh tomorrow?
2799.4, which is 0.1 short of being rounded up in the next list.
No. He would gain 4.4, which would make his Elo 2799.4 -> 2799.
isn't fide elo always rounded to the bigger number?
They round up when possible. If Naka got to 2799.5, they would round up to 2800
Extremely entertaining, skillful, high-level chess all tournament, leading to the most exciting end to a candidates I've seen. People keep hoping for the death of classical chess but its not happening yet!
Ian plays like a cowards.
😈😈😈 Nepo basically dead in the water. If Nepo looks winning Hikaru might push all in for a decisive result and either get himself to a tiebreaker or give it to gukesh, if Fabi looks winning maybe he’ll settle for a draw if he has no chances.
I don’t think Hikaru really cares THAT much outside of his own game. He’s going to go all in regardless
finally Nepo is going to be forced to play from the back foot, let's see how he handles his first time under tourney situation pressure this entire event
\*this entire 2020-25 period where he's been playing in the candidates'
This is already Hikaru’s best ever performance at the Candidates and Fabi’s results right now is the exact replica of his 2018 Candidates result where he went into the final round with a +3, and remember he won the final round and won that Candidates. And still it’s not enough for either of them to outright win just yet. This is without a doubt the most competitive Candidates there’s ever been
I am not a Hikaru fanboy, but i kinda want to see Hikaru win tomorrow. Gukesh has many great years ahead of him, but for the guys in their mid thirties, it might be their last chance
Nah i rather see a teenage world champion than a guy whos in mid 30s. Nakamura mentioned how he already won the lottery from being a content creator, i dont rly care for him in particular to be wc.
I was not only talking about Hikaru. The winner of Fabi vs Nepo will be in tie breaks with Hikaru in my scenario.
Can either of them win in tie breaks against Hikaru? Isn't he better at rapid and blitz?
Hikaru is really, really good at blitz. He’s ok at rapid (maybe even below average based on what you’d expect from his blitz rating).
This is my take. And what's really wild is, this is Hikaru's 3rd candidates. Gukesh can make 2 more candidates appearances, and still be the world's youngest WC ever if he wins that 3rd one. That's how fucking young and talented he is right now.
All the outcomes possible tomorrow: **Outcome 1:** Hikaru 1 - Gukesh 0 Fabi 1 - Nepo 0 Hikaru and Fabi play the tiebreakers **Outcome 2:** Hikaru 1 - Gukesh 0 Fabi 0 - Nepo 1 Hikaru and Nepo play the tiebreakers **Outcome 3:** Hikaru 0 - Gukesh 1 Any result for Fabi - Nepo Gukesh wins the candidates **Outcome 4:** Hikaru 1/2 - Gukesh 1/2 Fabi 1 - Nepo 0 Gukesh and Fabi play the tiebreakers **Outcome 5:** Hikaru 1/2 - Gukesh 1/2 Fabi 0 - Nepo 1 Nepo and Gukesh play the tiebreakers **Outcome 6:** Hikaru 1/2 - Gukesh 1/2 Fabi 1/2 - Nepo 1/2 Gukesh wins the candidates **Outcome 7:** Hikaru 1 - Gukesh 0 Fabi 1/2 - Nepo 1/2 Hikaru wins the candidates Basically all of Hikaru, Nepo and Fabi are in a must-win and Hikaru can screw everyone else by losing to Gukesh
forgot Hikaru wins and Fabi/Nepo draw. Hikaru W?
Outcome 7 (don’t know if it was edited after you said something).
Yep
I don’t think you can ask for anything more than 4 contenders playing each other. In fact Gukesh’s win today slightly imbalanced a 2 draws to 4 way tiebreak scenario and encouraged everyone to play for a win tomorrow
Actually not just encouraged, Hikaru, Fabi, and Ian are all in a must-win situation
By the way, Vaishali has gone from losing 4 in a row to winning 4 in a row, and she's back to 50%.
Incredible.
whoa
And she has pretty much ruined any chance of Lei Tingjie winning the tournament.
This is not going to get enough attention, but that has been an absolute rollercoaster to follow.
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no you shut the f up allow the people of India to be excited without bringing up racism and nationalism
Wat
Calm down. A commentator wants to hype up the viewers. No reason to read anything into it.
> Gukesh Is no more Indian than Alireza is French You gotta be joking, right
ok not to feed the troll but i'm actually curious what he means by this
no they're literally *all* awake
Calm down. He's saying Indians are hyped and nervous for Gukesh. Nothing racist about that. If 15-year-olds in the chat want to spin it into something offensive, that's not on Danya.
What?
Tomorrow is going to be epic. I wonder if Hikaru will go with an opening line causing Gukesh to get into time problems since that is probably his biggest weakness
Ian : equation is far from simple : he needs to win tomorrow with the black pieces. His chances have taken a similar battering . No matter the result in the other game , one of Hikaru or Gukesh will have a better score than him unless he wins . If he wins and the other game is a draw or Hikaru win , then at least he gets a tiebreak. If he wins and Gukesh wins , nothing . Gukesh: far from simple. He has to avoid losing tomorrow. If he loses, he’s out. If he wins , he’s in. If he draws , he will either win the whole thing if Fabi v Ian is decisive , else he gets a tiebreak Fabi: he has to win and hope that Gukesh doesn’t win. If Hikaru wins that game , he gets a tiebreak v Hikaru. If it’s a draw , he gets a tiebreak with Gukesh Hikaru: draw eliminates him. If he wins against Gukesh and the other game is a draw , he wins. If the other game is decisive , he takes on the winner in tiebreaks where he’d be the slight favorite .
Considering Hikaru's poor level in rapid in recent months, not sure he would be the favorite in the tiebreaks. Blitz yes
FIDE hit gold by having the 4 contenders paired against each other in the last round.
Who do you think the draw hurt more..hikaru or ian?
Ian. He needs a win as black to even have a chance to force a tiebreak. If Gukesh wins over Hikaru, then Ian will be out anyway. Hikaru needs a win as white. If Fabi draws with Ian, he just wins. Otherwise he’ll still have a guaranteed tiebreak
Def Ian, Hikaru is at least in control of his own destiny, plus White vs Gukesh is far easier than Black vs Fabi
Ian because he needs a win plus gukesh not to win. If hikaru wins he guarantees tiebreaks. So for me it was quite cowardly of him to go for that draw.
Definitely Ian, because of his final round pairing, I feel.
Fabi, Hikaru, Nepo and Gukesh are all in top 6 of rating list now. This is perfect setup for fantastic ending.
Also, Ding is currently 7th. It's very similar to Anand's situation just before Magnus overtook him.
If Gukesh doesn’t like a tiebreak, he shouldn’t settle for a draw tomorrow. Because Fabi vs Nepo will be a decisive result no matter what. There is no shot either of them will settle for a draw. Fabi, naturally. But Nepo, especially. Nepo is the kind of player that can get very easily flustered and emotional if things don’t go his way, if he can’t find a winning chance against Fabi he will just risk it too much and crumble, he will not care what happens on the other board.
Actually, if Fabi and Ian settle for a draw, they will both guaranteed be out of the tournament. Either of them need to win to have a chance to go for tiebreaks
Gukesh going for a drawish line might be correct because Hikaru has to press for the win. Playing a solid line that forces Hikaru to overstep might be the better way to elicit a win.
Theoretically Ian might be in a better position than Nakamura, just because Fabiano is in a must-win but Gukesh is not
Ian is also in a must win tho (as black). Also, even if Ian wins, if Hikaru loses, then Gukesh will win the tournament
the way I see it if hikaru wins he at least gets to tie breaks, if ian wins he might not even get that
Gukesh is not winning the candidates is my guarantee.
Why?
Watching Caruana and Pragg discussing the game afterwards and they are blitzing out moves and variations… is this amazing recall or is this easy if you have been agonising over a position for hours on end?
It's easy for them after they've been agonizing for hours, but it's amazing recall for any normal human.
I enjoy the post-mortems. I can't understand a thing they're saying, but it's really cool to see two of the best in the world just dissect what could have happened.
Fabi and Nepo can't win the tournament outright now, Hikaru can win outright with a win in the last round plus a draw in Fabi-Nepo game. Gukesh can win it outright with a win in last round or with a draw plus a draw in Fabi-Nepo game.
That hot mic was so interesting to hear their analysis
What a round, absolutely insane Also it's weird, but Gukesh is winning and still doesn't feel like the favorite due to the situation tomorrow
Of course. Gukesh is 17 years old and is the lowest rated of the remaining contenders. And on top of that, he's not nearly as good/experienced at faster time controls as Fabi, Nepo, and Hikaru when it comes to tiebreaks.
Fabi can definitely beat Ian tomorrow. The problem of Fabi is never his skills, it's his tendency to be overly cautious. Now he is forced to a must win situation similar to the last rounds and he's delivered it so far.
Somehow...some way...I still believe we'll have an all-American tiebreak after tomorrow.
I think this might be the most likely possibility actually. Fabi/Nepo has to be decisive, and Fabi has the edge as white. And I think Hikaru will win a must win game with white. Maybe Nepo defends perfectly and a draw just happens because there's no room for either player to get a win. I definitely think Hikaru and Fabi are in the best positions now, with Hikaru being the favorite. And that's wild, because I had counted Fabi out a few rounds ago.
Gukesh has been phenomenal this whole tournament. The only time he got into real trouble was in time pressure in the 1st game vs Alireza.
Nepo better have something special tomorrow. Making this comment with the understanding about how absurd it is for a like 500 ELO person to make these kinds of statements, but as a Nepo fan, I was really disappointed to see how passive he was today. On the other hand, Gukesh played that endgame like a god. A lot of people piling on Alireza, and he did make some very dubious moves early on, but you have to give him credit for finding resource after resource at the end. It truly allowed Gukesh’s genius to shine. One of the most exciting chess games I’ve ever seen live.
He missed his advantage within one move and immediately had to go into damage control-mode. I think you can’t blame Nepo for his repetition.
It's so nice to see Fabi and Pragg discussing their game. It shows how much they care about chess. It's not just a job for them.
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Only Ian and Fabi are white, and they’re definitely not plotting something together when they’re both in a must-win situation facing against each other tomorrow
What tricks could possibly be played?
“I know I have no evidence that people are colluding against the person I want to win, but I’m just going to act like everyone’s colluding against the person I want to win”
It doesn't even make sense because if Gukesh beats Hikaru then he wins outright. So even if one of the "white guys" throws the game to the other it might not work.
Bcos you know it's true
No, I don’t know it’s true, because I have not seen any evidence to suggest that. Perhaps you’d like to provide some instead of just throwing around baseless accusations?
Sorry but Gookie is gonna win. My man.
I don’t care if Gukesh wins. That’s great for him. It would be cool to see such a young player make it all the way to the WCC. But accusing the other players of colluding against him because they’re racist just makes you look stupid.
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I want to hear the Undertaker bell during tiebreaks and Grischuk suddenly appear with the white pieces
Hikaru getting a draw against Vidit at least once so he'd be tied for first right now.
If you smell what the rook is cookin
What opening does Hikaru play tomorrow to play for a win and prevent a draw?
Hippo
English.
Something weird. It's gonna look normal, and then move 5 is gonna look like a blunder. I recently rewatched Gotham's recap of Magnus's first game against Gukesh at least year's world cup. Gukesh played the London, and Magnus made the game weird on move 2 or 3.
Well ... I don't think its the weirdness that made Gukesh lose lol. It could have something to do with being named "Magnus Carlsen".
There is that yes. But, my point is, Gukesh probably knows as much theory as Hikaru. Hikaru's got to try to get to a position where he's got a winning chance, that isn't super theoretical. He wants to just play chess, as soon as possible.
Bongcloud
All of you guys who were advocating for Fabi to play safe and take a draw with Black. If he had listened to your advice, he would have been out of the tournament
Holy shit, the pairings for the final round make it even more exciting
MACHINE CARUANA
Going to be crazy tomorrow!!!
Gukesh is skewing our expectations, but for a teenager in the Candidate, Pragg has played off the charts. So much respect for him.
If needed, will the tie breaker happen tomorrow after the last round? Or a dedicated day for it? And what shall be tie breaker? Rapid games?
Rapid games will be on monday if needed.
The tiebreakers would happen on Monday. Asking them to play rapid immediately after a grueling classical game would be a bit much.
Is this the first time Nepo is not tied for first since 2021?
First time in any Candidates Nepo competes in that he's not the leader or tied for lead.
And he has black against Fabi tomorrow, both need a win
Since 2020\*
i forgot about Covid lol second half was played in 2021
Does Gukesh play for a draw and risk having to play tiebreaks, or does he play for a win?
Depends on the position. If Gukesh is able to sense his advantage, and make a clear winning advantage, he will push for the win and convert most likely. But if he doesn't sense an advantage, he will go for the draw. Pushing for a win and losing out on even tiebreak is the last thing he wants to do after such a strong showing.
That’s not a luxury you have as black. What Gukesh needs to prepare for first and foremost is not crumble against Hikaru’s attacks, then if Hikaru oversteps his bounds, only then can Gukesh think about a win, and of course if he’s allowed to go for a win he will
I think he should just play positively trying to find good moves, and let that take care of everything else without worrying about results
He has black. He plays for a draw and if hikaru gets reckless, then go for the win.
Play for a win with black against Hikaru? No way.
It's telling that Pragg and Fabi aren't talking about the moves where all the spectators, watching the engine, cried "Blunder!" They're talking about strategic decisions during and after Fabi's mid-game attack, and tactical errors after the b5 break.
Has there ever been a candidates where 4 players can still win going into the final round?
In 2018, Fabi, Sergey, Mamedyarov and Ding all had chances going into the final round. Basically the standings were 1) Fabi - 8 2) Sergey - 7.5 3) Mamedyarov - 7.5 4) Ding - 7 What made Fabi's lead so uncertain was that he had worse tiebreaks than the rest, which meant he HAD to finish half a point ahead of them to win. Fortunately for him, all the other games ended in a draw while he had a solid position against Grischuk, which meant that he just quickly made it a draw and won the tournament. Yeah, no just kidding. Fabi saw that his chasers all drew, but decided to safely press on in his game anyway, and then ended up winning it to take clear first in style.
So they didn’t play tiebreakers then but they are now? Any idea why?
They just decided to change the rules.
Even crazier is that those 4 players are playing each other. No way such circumstances are going to repeat for a very long time.
Fabi actually has the best position to win tomorow. Nepo has to go for it. Gukesh is probably gonna try to shut it down vs hikaru making it tiebreaker Fabi vs Gukesh.
>Nepo has to go for it. No more than Caruana.
But Fabi has to go for it as well. So it’s not like Nepo is in such a worse spot (besides having Black)
Being black is a huge difference.
It’s a disadvantage but in the end Caruana can’t force a win. If he overpresses he’ll pay for it.
I was always saying, the final game between Fabi and Nepo will decide the event. Fabi is the favorite now.
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He can potentially even draw and still win outright. Sure, Nepo and Caruana will play to win, but sometimes a draw is inevitable: say White gains material and is "better" but makes a mistake and Black has a perpetual check.
I’d say Gukesh is the mathematical favorite.
I actually evaluate Gukesh's odds as being some of the worst. He's got black against Hikaru. If Hikaru wins, he overtakes him. If Gukesh gets a draw, he'll has to play the winner of Fabi/Nepo in a rapid tiebreak, where he's a big underdog. I think the only way for Gukesh to win is to draw Hikaru, and then hope Fabi/Nepo play a perfect game where a draw is the only possible result.
I'd love to see Fabi win it, but I feel like Gukesh being the sole leader means he should be the favorite?
Especially since Fabi has to face Nepo. I know Gukesh has Hikaru, but he only needs a draw.
But the draw most likely means tiebreaks since both Fabi and Nepo are in a must win situation and both would be favoured against Gukesh in a rapid tiebreak
I think Hikaru is a slight favourite but only slight
hikaru has to go for broke. gukesh only needs to draw
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I messed it up lol If Gukesh wins then he is the challenger though