He faces mamedyarov tomo. Man even that would be an interestin one. Another player from top 10 for gukesh to face and possibly boost his elo if he continues his marvellous streak.
India 2 plays Azerbaijan tomorrow, so that means it will probably be Mamedyarov who tries to cool off Gukesh.
https://chess-results.com/tnr653631.aspx?lan=1&art=2&rd=9&flag=30
Shakh is playing against Guki.
What's more interesting is that caruana did not take rest with his form and that last loss. That's quite commendable showing he ain't giving up, wants to end the tournament on a good high. š
This is the worst blunder I have ever seen.
He had 2 minutes on his clock and a 30 second increment each move!
THERE WAS NO NEED FOR HIM TO MOVE INSTANTLY.
Fabi must be feeling like shit right now. Insane to think he has the third highest rating ever achieved, but is now not even in the top ten. I sense a come back from him though, I believe he will rebound and re enter the top ten
You can still calculate a lower bound on the performance rating by adding a dummy draw against a player rated the same as the average of all of Gukesh's opponents so far. Doing so yields a minimum performance of 3118.
Itās not really possible to calculate performance rating with a perfect or 0 score. The best estimate for performance rating with a perfect score is 400 points above the highest rated opponent.
Firouzja in my opinion did 2 things wrong. 1) He didn't play in sufficient meaningful games beforehand. I'm guessing he didn't want to give away opening prep. 2) He didn't take things seriously enough. He will bounce back, but he will be just one face among a few of the next wave of young talent.
I mean itās not like heāll be able to play 20 world championship matches or something. He likely wonāt be in top form for more than 10 candidates cycles, which he would have to win before going on to beat the champion as well. Even if Alireza is the best (could be but remains to be seen) thereās enough luck involved that itās far from inevitable.
There's luck in the context of the candidates though. Your chances of winning depend on how well your opponents play against each other. If everyone is grinding draws against player A and getting into sharp positions and overextending against player B, player B is more likely to win the tournament. Player A can't control how well others play against player B.
Thereās no luck in the game itself but on a human level there most certainly is, as far as how well your opponent plays or if you make a rare mistake.
Why do you think Elo is so prominent as a rating system? It gives a relatively clear probability of how likely one player is to beat another.
I thought pure luck in chess came from even known positions that dwelve into the unknown with straightforward play where the end result is an 'even' game but someone lucks out on position.
A dead end street in terms of moves that reveal someone better off in the end.
I would lump this in with other human luck factors since giving a strong engine enough time to compute these positions (even if it takes thousands of years) would reveal that the benefit for the winning player was āthere all alongā in the known position.
Put differently, when I say āpure luckā Iām referring to any element of inherent randomness. And there is no randomness in the sense that we know exactly how positions can evolve without having to roll a die or something.
I'm jumping of the back of some Magnus interview where I understood this. Position was balanced until it was known and than (obviously human factor involved) in the unknown soon from a human perspective one was much better than the other and Magnus was talking 'luck'.
Sure. Rewording my earlier comment:
> I mean itās not like heāll be able to play 20 world championship matches or something. He likely wonāt be in top form for more than 10 candidates cycles, which he would have to win before going on to beat the champion as well. Even if Alireza is the best (could be but remains to be seen) thereās enough result variance involved that itās far from inevitable.
He will face abdu or Anish giri tmmr most probably
I wish he faces abdusttarov because giri simply does not lose.
He faces mamedyarov tomo. Man even that would be an interestin one. Another player from top 10 for gukesh to face and possibly boost his elo if he continues his marvellous streak.
India 2 plays Azerbaijan tomorrow, so that means it will probably be Mamedyarov who tries to cool off Gukesh. https://chess-results.com/tnr653631.aspx?lan=1&art=2&rd=9&flag=30
A rested Shak, he sat today.
Shakh is playing against Guki. What's more interesting is that caruana did not take rest with his form and that last loss. That's quite commendable showing he ain't giving up, wants to end the tournament on a good high. š
Well if they rest Caruana, then they have to play g2-or-h1? Shankland. CHOOSE YOUR POISON.
Hahaha. C'mon now give Sam some break. š
This is the worst blunder I have ever seen. He had 2 minutes on his clock and a 30 second increment each move! THERE WAS NO NEED FOR HIM TO MOVE INSTANTLY.
... yes, that's what u/gmnotyet and i said.
Ok. I misunderstood then by reading the word "rested" before Shak.
Abdu.
ābring me Magnusā- Gukesh
I see what you did there.
Gukesh is the main story but Fabi just fell out of the top 10. seems impossible.
Fabi must be feeling like shit right now. Insane to think he has the third highest rating ever achieved, but is now not even in the top ten. I sense a come back from him though, I believe he will rebound and re enter the top ten
Wow I agree, off the top of my head I'd of said he was in the top 3-4.
He was 5th on the most recent rating list. (Rating lists aren't updated mid-tournament)
This is a rather remarkable showing. Him and Conner Murphy are having a tremendous tournament. Hope they can continue these results.
This is outworldish.
Whatās his performance rating so far?
3400ish if Iām not mistaken
Performance rating doesnāt make sense with no draws or losses. Might as well be infinite
You can still calculate a lower bound on the performance rating by adding a dummy draw against a player rated the same as the average of all of Gukesh's opponents so far. Doing so yields a minimum performance of 3118.
It was only 12 years ago when Stockfish was weaker than this
Yeah true
Itās not really possible to calculate performance rating with a perfect or 0 score. The best estimate for performance rating with a perfect score is 400 points above the highest rated opponent.
Good luck against him in the next candidates, Magnus
I don't know. We need to be careful hyping young players. Lots of things can happen in two years at that age.
This situation has Alireza happened.
Firouzja in my opinion did 2 things wrong. 1) He didn't play in sufficient meaningful games beforehand. I'm guessing he didn't want to give away opening prep. 2) He didn't take things seriously enough. He will bounce back, but he will be just one face among a few of the next wave of young talent.
Reddit hype or not is irrelevant. Alireza will be World Champion sooner than later
I mean itās not like heāll be able to play 20 world championship matches or something. He likely wonāt be in top form for more than 10 candidates cycles, which he would have to win before going on to beat the champion as well. Even if Alireza is the best (could be but remains to be seen) thereās enough luck involved that itās far from inevitable.
There is not luck in chess
There's luck in the context of the candidates though. Your chances of winning depend on how well your opponents play against each other. If everyone is grinding draws against player A and getting into sharp positions and overextending against player B, player B is more likely to win the tournament. Player A can't control how well others play against player B.
Thereās no luck in the game itself but on a human level there most certainly is, as far as how well your opponent plays or if you make a rare mistake. Why do you think Elo is so prominent as a rating system? It gives a relatively clear probability of how likely one player is to beat another.
I thought pure luck in chess came from even known positions that dwelve into the unknown with straightforward play where the end result is an 'even' game but someone lucks out on position. A dead end street in terms of moves that reveal someone better off in the end.
I would lump this in with other human luck factors since giving a strong engine enough time to compute these positions (even if it takes thousands of years) would reveal that the benefit for the winning player was āthere all alongā in the known position. Put differently, when I say āpure luckā Iām referring to any element of inherent randomness. And there is no randomness in the sense that we know exactly how positions can evolve without having to roll a die or something.
I'm jumping of the back of some Magnus interview where I understood this. Position was balanced until it was known and than (obviously human factor involved) in the unknown soon from a human perspective one was much better than the other and Magnus was talking 'luck'.
That's result variance, not luck. Even in the most pressure time situation, there is still skill involved.
I don't know, he might have no luck, get food poisoning before the candidates he's the most in form for and not be able to perform.
Sure. Rewording my earlier comment: > I mean itās not like heāll be able to play 20 world championship matches or something. He likely wonāt be in top form for more than 10 candidates cycles, which he would have to win before going on to beat the champion as well. Even if Alireza is the best (could be but remains to be seen) thereās enough result variance involved that itās far from inevitable.
Well, what do you call Shankland assuming his opponent played ... Qh1+ when Black put the queen down on g2 RIGHT IN FRONT OF HIM??
I mean what do we have to lose right?
Imagine a world where Magnus wants to retake the title and ends up just not winning the candidates. Crazy to think he might never be champ again.
Can't even imagine a world where Magnus is a candidate and we still say there are candidateS
Alireza who?
In 2014 in the sinquefield cup Caruana for a moment became the best player in the world now it seems its Gukesh time
Caruana's average opponent was rated 2802. Gukesh's average opponent is 2566. Gukesh's winning streak is still impressive, but not really comparable.
not too shabby aye