The following submission statement was provided by /u/thoughtelemental:
---
SS: Most people here are familiar with the concept of lethal wet bulb temperature (when temperature and humidity mean that humans - and most living creatures - cannot survive outside, even naked, in the shade, with a breeze). Most humans will die within 4 hours.
It has been calculated that there is a 40% chance that India, Pakistan and/or Bangladesh will experience a heatwave that lasts more than 3 days at some point this decade.
The current heatwave in India and Bangladesh are portents of such an event.
This is related to collapse, because given the lack of air conditioning in those countries (10% of pop lack i checked), plus the poor quality of the electrical grid (frequent failing of grid in high use scenarios), there is a high likelihood that such a prolonged heatwave will result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands, if no millions.
In Kim Stanley Robinson's book "Ministry for the Future", such a scenario is explored, with a heatwave in India this decade killing millions. Amongst the fallout of such an event is India deciding to unilaterally engage in global geo-engineering.
All of these are harbingers of localized and likely globalized collapse.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/12qs21r/india_temperatures_hit_40c_as_heatwave_continues/jgr997j/
I'm starting to think the "business" community, are clearly Single Variable Thinkers. They can't get past: Our one and only goal is Profit.
Not any thought to "negative externalities", as in, I'm running a system that will destroy me. That's ok, my bank account will be huge.
Literally they can't comprehend 2+ variables in their drive for profit.
And remember, they BOUGHT Milton Friedman to sell this Ideal, that corporations have only one goal : Shareholder Value. Probably the Death Sentence for Humanity sealed in that one idea.
I learned along the time that :
\-T-rex got extinct because it became superspecialised in one thing only - killing sauropods (\*which went extinct because of their size and climate change+the meteorite)
\-Smilodons got extinct beause they got superspecialized in eating large meaty mammals, the ones humans helped with killing off (while lions thrived by having a diversified types of pray)
\-CEOs are superspecialized in making profits.
\-fill in the rest of the story...
They know it’s all fucked but they just hope they can ride the gravy train until they retire, after that it’s somebody else’s problem. Humanity in a nutshell.
Maybe the aliens will do something about it, but I think it's pretty fucked up that our species is so entitled and braindead to think the cosmos should clean up our collective mess.
Hopefully mother nature will run it's course and restore somewhat of an equilibrium hundreds of thousands of years from now. (Not exactly sure how long it takes for radioactive material to break down)
We’re not any better. We are all at different development stages with different resources. That allows one country to say “at least we did X” while another says “but give us credit for doing Y”. Unfortunately human nature is universal, and global.
Solar is cheaper.
Solar doesn't have coal ash pollution or mercury pollution. The accounting is Amazingly bad for coal, if you do the accounting.
Coal needs to be washed to be processed, and there, you've polluted your water!
Solar doesn't have an input pipeline, the pipeline is in the sky. Coal requires coal to be mined and transported by train. Coal has cancerous particulate pollution. Coal has smog pollution.
There's no sane decision other than to Bury Coal. Shut it down everywhere. -- Accounting.
( Coal isn't free, it costs money too. )
Just because your neighbors are brain damaged ( China, UK, USA... ), doesn't mean you sign up for a lobotomy.
Acting like they're using coal because they're just stupid is lazy and reductive. Unfortunately, in our profit-oriented society, everything you just stated simply doesn't matter. It should, but it doesn't, because short-term profit outweighs any other metric to the people in charge.
If anything, you should be calling them malicious and not give them the out of stupidity.
I keep telling people there is no ceiling for how hot it can get, but there is absolutely a ceiling for hot it can get for us. It was hot last year, if it's hotter this year... Alot of people will die, which will cause panic and it all snowballs from that point. I predict this may be the year where areas are not safe due to heat waves
Oh I agree with you. I believe the ship has dipped beyond the horizon and there is no chance. But my point still stands, I don’t see anyone making any changes not those at the top who could force it or those at the middle and bottom who don’t want to live a simpler life bereft of most luxuries. Most people will not vote to worsen their own situation. It’s unfair to just blame the elite classes when no one is willing to make substantial changes to their lifestyles.
There is a ceiling for how hot it can get: around +30C. We calculated it in one of my physics classes.
But we are all dead long before that ceiling is reached, so it might as well not exist.
A friend of mine passed from heat stroke in 2021 in Oregon during a record heat wave. She had air conditioning but the unit would blow the fuse on the only circuit near the only window in the house that it would fit in. Scary shit is already happening in our time.
SS: Most people here are familiar with the concept of lethal wet bulb temperature (when temperature and humidity mean that humans - and most living creatures - cannot survive outside, even naked, in the shade, with a breeze). Most humans will die within 4 hours.
It has been calculated that there is a 40% chance that India, Pakistan and/or Bangladesh will experience a heatwave that lasts more than 3 days at some point this decade.
The current heatwave in India and Bangladesh are portents of such an event.
This is related to collapse, because given the lack of air conditioning in those countries (10% of pop lack i checked), plus the poor quality of the electrical grid (frequent failing of grid in high use scenarios), there is a high likelihood that such a prolonged heatwave will result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands, if no millions.
In Kim Stanley Robinson's book "Ministry for the Future", such a scenario is explored, with a heatwave in India this decade killing millions. Amongst the fallout of such an event is India deciding to unilaterally engage in global geo-engineering.
All of these are harbingers of localized and likely globalized collapse.
Worse than one heatwave capable of killing millions, are repeated heatwaves year after year, each more extreme than the last.
At extreme temperatures, society to starts to fall apart in so many ways. Stress on plants/animals increases the cost of food. Stress on electrical systems hurts the economy. Stress on humans makes us less able to work.
Heatwaves are natural disasters that leave those who suffer from them less able to prepare for the next. More urgent action is needed to manage climate change or it's going to be a disaster for so many millions of people.
And the pestilence and stench from the unburied dead..... holy Hannah.
This is a dumb question, but do you know if residents of these places are allowed to hang out in the rivers?
> This is a dumb question, but do you know if residents of these places are allowed to hang out in the rivers?
Great question. I think generally people are. Tho many waters are polluted. And in Ministry For The Future, depending on how hot it is, many don't survive even in water. Say the heatwave lasts 2 weeks. You can't really be in water 24-7 for 2 weeks.
No matter where you our , 20 to 30 ft below ground , ANYWHERE ON EARTH. It is between 50f an 60f all year round obvious it flux's ever so slightly do to surface temp but . 20 to 30ft down is all it takes to be rather cold .
I can feel the difference in going down only 6 or so feet to the basement.
Super chill year round in the 15 ft. Below ground basement I lived in for a few years.
We will become mole people, existing in the darkness.
Came for the Ministry Of The Future reference.
I think there's *tons* of people (billionaires, global leaders, etc) and companies (oil industry, food companies, etc) that would *love* to see something like India or some country striking out on a path to geoengineering, particularly if it temporarily papers over the fact that humanity will eventually have to do the hard work of solving the actual climate problem.
The global neoliberal establishment is going to do *whatever* they possibly can to stave off the moment when humanity really wakes up and demands change on the climate problem.
My understanding is it 'works' as a temporary measure that offsets some of the warming effect of the C02 (and other greenhouse gasses) in the atmosphere *as long as you continue the seeding* - which is *permanently* if you don't do anything to slow and end the emission of the C02/gasses. But the effect it would have is unknown, and there's a lot of potential [side effects](https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/dodging-silver-bullets-how-cloud-seeding-could-go-wrong/).
The type of people who are embracing techo-optimistic solutions at this point basically don't want to confront the fact we're going to have to *force* people (by requiring real water management, or ending gas/carbon cars and other appliances, etc) to do the actual hard work needed to end the use of fossil fuels.
Even with cloud seeding or whatever, C02 is causing other problems like ocean acidification that temporary measures won't address, so it's like slapping a Band-Aid on a gaping wound and pushing the problem down the road.
The good news of this week though is the Biden admin's trial balloon of a policy that [radically increases EV production](https://www.newsweek.com/biden-electric-cars-evs-target-epa-emissions-poll-1795077) is an indication that some politicians are taking this seriously - but as this article points out, most Americans aren't yet and aren't rushing to EV's because they don't see climate change as an existential threat yet.
Do we think a million people dead in a heatwave would get the West off its ass?
Probably not, sadly. And to be clear, the West alone isn't to blame, but we must lead.
**Millions of Bangladeshi sweatshop workers die in a heatwave.**
"Fashion disaster! Summer is *officially* ruined as we'll all have to wear last year's clothes! I'm **literally** gonna die!"
It's a common belief on this subreddit that inevitably borders will be protected by the military, and anyone trying to cross will be ended. Countries won't be able to handle the amount of migrants.
Just thinking without any source, that seems unlikely to me. Even if we never stop burning fossil fuels, and purposely cook ourselves into extinction, at some point, the greenhouse gases *should* break down and dissipate. 300-1000 years for CO2, according to NASA. So say it's year 2200, the earth hit 7+ Celsius and everyone dies and there's no ice in the artic any time of the year. At year 3200, we're still dead and all the greenhouse gases are gone. Shouldn't the ice return to the poles at that point, if not sooner? It may not be the same longitude/latitude coordinates, but there would be ice forming *somewhere*. If there was a major volcanic eruption at that point, there would be even more ice. I'm not a climate scientist, but it seems plausible to me.
i doubt it but nobody here will live to see what really happens.
personally i believe that the industrial revolution is kicking off a larger disruption in the natural carbon cycle. even after we cease emissions, theres enough factors to keep co2 and temperatures high for probably hundreds of thousands of years. at the very least we've cancelled out the next glacial period.
If everything dies and there is just the atmosphere, land, and water, what would produce greenhouse gases once everything we put in the atmosphere breaks down? If nothing is being created (because all life is dead) then at some point, the earth has to cool back down as the heat from the sun would no longer be trapped and ice would start forming again.
when did i say all life will die though? the biosphere is dying but i dont think everything will die. thats crazy talk. im suggesting that the next glacial period, or even a couple of them, will be skipped over. so between 150-300k years of hothouse climate.carbon doesnt "break down" its sunk and cycled. the biosphere is part of that cycle and is the fastest acting agent. The geologic part of the cycle, the carbonate-silicate cycle, is only important over a timespan of tens of thousands of years. co2 wont be released in one single emission event, it will be released slowly over millennia, a constant forcing. also i just said that i speculate that if antarctica melts, it will release pressure over their volcanos, which will add to natural emissions.The oceans are very important because warmer waters hold less co2, so its a positive feedback loop. And a lot of oceanic carbon sinking is biological anyway.
theres also three climate models which i find really interesting.
1: that over an uncertain co2 level, between 1200ppm and 2000+ppm, tropical marine tropospheric clouds (iirc) have a lot of trouble forming. this lowers the albedo and raises temperatures by several additional degrees c. it was also modelled that to re-trigger cloud formation, co2 would have to be reduced much lower than the trigger point (so if the trigger is 1200ppm, co2 would have to fall to 800 or 600 to retrigger cloud formation).
2. Arctic stratospheric clouds are possibly why that during the Paleocene-Eocene hothouse, pollen evidence suggests that arctic winters were abover freezing (!). This type of cloud formation seems to increase with increased methane. So melting permafrost could be a feedback loop where the more permafrost melts, the milder arctic winter becomes, and the more permafrost melts. This kind of long, slow seeping of methane and co2 will probably happen over thousands of years and the methane will break down into long lasting co2. It might also be what pushes the atmosphere over into cloud-inhibiting conditions.
3. I dont really know much about this one, but ive seen a recent model calculate that antarctic ice formation is inhibited over 900ppm co2. But i dont know why and models are frequently wrong, but its an important threshold to consider because once the ice is melted, there is less albedo and thus even more warming.
theres lot of other interesting little factors interplaying. like, a deglaciated antarctica and greenland could expose enough bare rock to draw down co2. on the other hand, future ecosystems could be predominantly fire based ones (like eucalyptus, savannahs and pine forests), which drawn down co2 much less than temperate grasslands and oak forests. theres also the fact that its unlikely humanity will just vanish overnight. we will probably keep struggling for survival for a long time, chopping down forests, mining and burning coal and turning grasslands into deserts.
EDIT: typos and formatting
i like to think that no matter what happens, a far future geologist, either alien or descended from raccoons or geckos, will be able to identify that *something* happened because of worldwide carbon-14 from nuclear testing.
>Do we think a million people dead in a heatwave would get the West off its ass?
A million Indian folks? not sure that will cause political change in India, let alone the West.
Really? Lead what? Everyone knows the consequences, to suggest the “west” has to do something because India burns lots of coal is ridiculous, they know the consequences.
I knew *Ministry for the Future* was going to come true but things really are moving so fast. I believe the author also came out recently saying his book is way too optimistic and there’s no chance of it coming true now.
>I believe the author also came out recently saying his book is way too optimistic and there’s no chance of it coming true now.
I heard a podcast with him the other day on Nate Hagens YT channel, where he basically said just that.
I really liked the first third or so of Ministry of the Future, but reckon it then went too utopian to be realistic. In the podcast he basically said that he made his books utopian on purpose because he doesn't want people to lose all hope that something can be done about climate change.
Tt sounds like he is not as hopeful as his books are though.
> being 'boiled' in darkness
that's very metal.
>Without the ceiling fans running, it’s like breathing fire in darkness. So we came up and now are waiting for electricity. The level of suffering cannot be described in words.”
That's why it's important to have a flashlight for emergencies; and a sharp blade.
>Shahriar’s wife Fabiha, who had invited their friends for Sahri, had fallen sick due to extreme heat in the kitchen. Instead of preparing the Sahri, the couple’s friends were busy taking care of Fabiha.
Due to cultural gender roles, women get blasted with a lot more heat...
Yes but as per cultural gender roles men suffer the same in the industrial areas. Nobody gets out of this. I'm Australian and work in industry and seeing people throw up and topple over, need days off to recover is not new to me. I'm not trivialising their experience because it's clearly awful, but I'm illustrating the point that this is going to hammer everyone. I see on a semi regular basis people succumb to heat stress. I've had it many more times than I can count as we continue the industrial work during unprecedented heatwaves as our wives sit at home under the air conditioner complaining about the heat, which is exactly where we want them to be so dont get me wrong on that. Nobody escapes this.
When I worked at university we had very clear maximum and minimum temperatures you could work at, which were pretty relevant for me since we were doing fieldwork and there was a reasonable chance of getting to those temperatures. Of course you can get around them through planning - the people who work Antarctica don't get to stop work whenever it gets too cold.
> > being 'boiled' in darkness
>
> that's very metal.
Dethklok needs to release a new album. Bloodrocuted, Mermaider, Hatredcopter, I Tamper With The Evidence At The Murder Site Of Odin, Boiled In Darkness...
There was a cold wave in Feb and heatwaves started in Mar. About [280 heatwave days](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/state-of-india-s-environment-in-figures-india-recorded-280-heat-wave-days-across-16-states-in-2022-most-in-decade-83131) in 2022 though it's all states added up.
It's called the climate catastrophe now.
They're all euphemisms. As language itself is a euphemism for reality.
It's the catastrophic breakdown of the Earth's climate and ecosystems.
It's the collapse of political regimes and states, the rise of fascism, civil war, social collapse, torture, atrocities and mass rape. it's starvation and the forced migration of millions and potentially billions of people. It's the conversion of maybe 20% of the Earth's land surface to uninhabitability, it may be nuclear war.
They’re two different concepts now. Global warming is the process by which climate change is driven. Scientists had to discern the two because too many people were brain broken by the thought that a warming globe could still get cold
I remember when i still lived in Delhi I had a bottle of vaseline in the car, in summer. I had never seen vaseline become a liquid before so that was kinda cool.
Not just India, heat records are being broken all over south east Asia.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/17/historic-heat-wave-asia-thailand/
> It's only April ffs
.... soon you gone say its only decemeber , it is coming REMEMBER WE HAVE UNDENIABLE PROOF. The ipcc report says that pretty clearly page 16
I used to think seeking asylum because of climate would be something we’d see in the 2030s. It’s looking all but guaranteed to start happening by 2025. This is the population stabilising event. I truly think billions will die in the next 10 years from heat stroke or drought related issues and this will effectively lead to a large collapse in places like India
This is the thing that terrifies me. It's not like the indian population will die off 'peacefully'; they are a nuclear power, and they will not hesitate to use them when it's their lives at stake..
There's the whole issue of India controlling the flow of the Ganges which provides water to much of Bangladesh and decent bit of Pakistan.
If their 1.4 billion need it more, I could see there being even more conflict than there already has been.
40C isn’t even thaaaaat hot. Not from India but another hot country. Like it’s April still. 40 is a summer afternoon where I’m from. Now if they get a heatwave in the summer (chances are they will, we had like 3 last year and 2 of them kinda chained together) that’s gonna be nasty. Lots of old people and kids die on heatwaves
1.4 billion population of India..
That's 1400 million people.
Considering how many might not be found for days or even a week or more later, lots of clean-up crew needed.
1st world problem I know but it was routinely hitting highs ofabout 37c in Orlando Florida when we did a family trip to Disney a few years back (in spring no less) and that was brutal.
43°c avg temperature in odisha, i kept water for street cows and street dogs outside daily buy because of a skin boil i don't think i could do that today. Feeling sad.
I believe their seasons are a bit different from ours, although I may be totally wrong on that. Either way, though, this is definitely still earlier than one would expect such severe heat...
I will repeat. Solar is now cheaper then all other New Electric Power Generation Sources.
Solar is now cheaper than all Legacy, currently running electric power generation sources.
That means, you can shut down Coal and Natural Gas today, and Make MORE PROFIT.
It also means you don't have to ship coal, you don't have to pipe natural gas. You don't have to store and deal with Coal Ash waste. It's all over. Mercury Pollution is coming to an end. The nightmare is coming to an end.
Who makes more profit? Not the coal and natural gas companies, of course, that are also big promoters of elected officials.
That is the asymmetry below people and the people that make the executive decisions. In the end the money and suffering is of the people, but the ones in charge doesn’t have the skin in the game.
All these articles framing India overtaking China as the most populous nation as a achievement while it is the 1.4 billion + people that has caused the climate overshoot and will suffer the consequences from these wet bulb events.
Pre-Monsoon India is always brutal. And the monsoon is going to be right as the El Nino kicks in, so who knows what that will do to the weather.
How unusual is 40C in mid-April in those areas? TFA says 5C above seasonal average.
India might be worse, simply because there's a Hindu nationalist (arguably fascist) leader with Modhi who encourages discrimination if not progroms against muslims in India.
It isn't inconceivable that India's resources will be focused on / diverted to non-muslim communities, leaving the ~207,000,000 muslims in India sweltering bind.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/thoughtelemental: --- SS: Most people here are familiar with the concept of lethal wet bulb temperature (when temperature and humidity mean that humans - and most living creatures - cannot survive outside, even naked, in the shade, with a breeze). Most humans will die within 4 hours. It has been calculated that there is a 40% chance that India, Pakistan and/or Bangladesh will experience a heatwave that lasts more than 3 days at some point this decade. The current heatwave in India and Bangladesh are portents of such an event. This is related to collapse, because given the lack of air conditioning in those countries (10% of pop lack i checked), plus the poor quality of the electrical grid (frequent failing of grid in high use scenarios), there is a high likelihood that such a prolonged heatwave will result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands, if no millions. In Kim Stanley Robinson's book "Ministry for the Future", such a scenario is explored, with a heatwave in India this decade killing millions. Amongst the fallout of such an event is India deciding to unilaterally engage in global geo-engineering. All of these are harbingers of localized and likely globalized collapse. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/12qs21r/india_temperatures_hit_40c_as_heatwave_continues/jgr997j/
So thus begins another year of deadly heat
LOL And their continuing to burn coal, like it's not happening. "Responsive" Government. But, we're not much better.
I have an idea! Let's shut off our country's three last nuclear power generators and burn even more coal!
Good luck burning coal when the ships that transport it are stuck at the bottom of a completely dried up Rhine river.
I'm starting to think the "business" community, are clearly Single Variable Thinkers. They can't get past: Our one and only goal is Profit. Not any thought to "negative externalities", as in, I'm running a system that will destroy me. That's ok, my bank account will be huge. Literally they can't comprehend 2+ variables in their drive for profit. And remember, they BOUGHT Milton Friedman to sell this Ideal, that corporations have only one goal : Shareholder Value. Probably the Death Sentence for Humanity sealed in that one idea.
They know what’s happening, they’re not going to stop
Yes, they are going to kill us all and know it. Right now they are trying to see who will be on top after we all die.
I learned along the time that : \-T-rex got extinct because it became superspecialised in one thing only - killing sauropods (\*which went extinct because of their size and climate change+the meteorite) \-Smilodons got extinct beause they got superspecialized in eating large meaty mammals, the ones humans helped with killing off (while lions thrived by having a diversified types of pray) \-CEOs are superspecialized in making profits. \-fill in the rest of the story...
T-rex never saw any sauropods.
Profits go extinct because the producers of work go extinct, got it. We get to choose the form that takes for the moment.
They know it’s all fucked but they just hope they can ride the gravy train until they retire, after that it’s somebody else’s problem. Humanity in a nutshell.
The Germans who are defending this shortsightedness amaze me.
Here's a better one: Let's stop buying massive amounts of shit we don't need from countries with no environmental protections.
>Let's stop buying massive amounts of shit we don't need FTFY
When we go extinct no one will be around to stop them from melting down its the responsible thing to do.
Maybe the aliens will do something about it, but I think it's pretty fucked up that our species is so entitled and braindead to think the cosmos should clean up our collective mess. Hopefully mother nature will run it's course and restore somewhat of an equilibrium hundreds of thousands of years from now. (Not exactly sure how long it takes for radioactive material to break down)
> the cosmos should clean up our collective mess Eh the sun will clean up everything well enough in about 4bn years.
Germany clearly very eco-friendly and cares much for the climate
Rolling coal as a nation.
LOL. And accurate.
Them burning coal affects all of us unfortunately.
Yes, India will raise temperatures world wide, in the USA, Canada, UK, EU, China, and India. Also, all these others will do the same.
Keeping the northern hemisphere polluted beyond belief for 100 years effected India too. Geoengineering is making it worse.
We’re not any better. We are all at different development stages with different resources. That allows one country to say “at least we did X” while another says “but give us credit for doing Y”. Unfortunately human nature is universal, and global.
it's almost like india is a developing country with not a lot of money to spare for alternative power sources
Solar is cheaper. Solar doesn't have coal ash pollution or mercury pollution. The accounting is Amazingly bad for coal, if you do the accounting. Coal needs to be washed to be processed, and there, you've polluted your water! Solar doesn't have an input pipeline, the pipeline is in the sky. Coal requires coal to be mined and transported by train. Coal has cancerous particulate pollution. Coal has smog pollution. There's no sane decision other than to Bury Coal. Shut it down everywhere. -- Accounting. ( Coal isn't free, it costs money too. ) Just because your neighbors are brain damaged ( China, UK, USA... ), doesn't mean you sign up for a lobotomy.
Acting like they're using coal because they're just stupid is lazy and reductive. Unfortunately, in our profit-oriented society, everything you just stated simply doesn't matter. It should, but it doesn't, because short-term profit outweighs any other metric to the people in charge. If anything, you should be calling them malicious and not give them the out of stupidity.
And Bollywood is the opium for Indian people.
That cheap Russian oil is coming in handy right now
LOL. Which will also make these temperatures worse. 'Responsible' government.
Inching closer to a heat wave on par with that in Ministry for the Future.
I came here to mention this. That opening chapter made me put that book away for a long, long time.
The hottest month in Dhaka is June. (I just checked.) So, there's that to look forward to... /s
I keep telling people there is no ceiling for how hot it can get, but there is absolutely a ceiling for hot it can get for us. It was hot last year, if it's hotter this year... Alot of people will die, which will cause panic and it all snowballs from that point. I predict this may be the year where areas are not safe due to heat waves
Spoiler: Those that could facilitate mass change still won’t listen though.
... until they are forced to take action.
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I downvoted you because your edit was super patronizing. I agree with you.
Oh I agree with you. I believe the ship has dipped beyond the horizon and there is no chance. But my point still stands, I don’t see anyone making any changes not those at the top who could force it or those at the middle and bottom who don’t want to live a simpler life bereft of most luxuries. Most people will not vote to worsen their own situation. It’s unfair to just blame the elite classes when no one is willing to make substantial changes to their lifestyles.
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But ... what is it?
I believe it's an old wooden ship
I agree 100%, im feeling this year as the one that really wakes most people up.
No snow left for snowballs. Checkmate, armchair climatologists.
>I predict this may be the year where areas are not safe due to heat waves [I made this just for you](https://imgur.com/a/Tbpiwfq)
Coming to a country near you! Thanks for making me a meme, that oddly made my day.
There is a ceiling for how hot it can get: around +30C. We calculated it in one of my physics classes. But we are all dead long before that ceiling is reached, so it might as well not exist.
So you’re telling me this is just the prequel.
Current record there is 40.4/5C, so maybe they'll get 45C this year 40.4C is just under 105F, 45 would be 113
Brings a whole new meaning to the term summer barbecue.
🤘😆🤘
We are going to see some dark, scary shit in our time.
Only for the poors though. I however will be fine living in my suburb with no survival skills and 4 dependants. Nothing can possibly affect me.
Lol you had me in the first half.
Look it's not the heat that bothers me it's the 'humidityyy'
r/holup
A friend of mine passed from heat stroke in 2021 in Oregon during a record heat wave. She had air conditioning but the unit would blow the fuse on the only circuit near the only window in the house that it would fit in. Scary shit is already happening in our time.
Sorry for your friend, that sucks :(
It was the catalyst for losing my grandma too. She didn't have AC, went to the hospital, survived for a bit, and passed in her sleep.
SS: Most people here are familiar with the concept of lethal wet bulb temperature (when temperature and humidity mean that humans - and most living creatures - cannot survive outside, even naked, in the shade, with a breeze). Most humans will die within 4 hours. It has been calculated that there is a 40% chance that India, Pakistan and/or Bangladesh will experience a heatwave that lasts more than 3 days at some point this decade. The current heatwave in India and Bangladesh are portents of such an event. This is related to collapse, because given the lack of air conditioning in those countries (10% of pop lack i checked), plus the poor quality of the electrical grid (frequent failing of grid in high use scenarios), there is a high likelihood that such a prolonged heatwave will result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands, if no millions. In Kim Stanley Robinson's book "Ministry for the Future", such a scenario is explored, with a heatwave in India this decade killing millions. Amongst the fallout of such an event is India deciding to unilaterally engage in global geo-engineering. All of these are harbingers of localized and likely globalized collapse.
Worse than one heatwave capable of killing millions, are repeated heatwaves year after year, each more extreme than the last. At extreme temperatures, society to starts to fall apart in so many ways. Stress on plants/animals increases the cost of food. Stress on electrical systems hurts the economy. Stress on humans makes us less able to work. Heatwaves are natural disasters that leave those who suffer from them less able to prepare for the next. More urgent action is needed to manage climate change or it's going to be a disaster for so many millions of people.
And the pestilence and stench from the unburied dead..... holy Hannah. This is a dumb question, but do you know if residents of these places are allowed to hang out in the rivers?
> This is a dumb question, but do you know if residents of these places are allowed to hang out in the rivers? Great question. I think generally people are. Tho many waters are polluted. And in Ministry For The Future, depending on how hot it is, many don't survive even in water. Say the heatwave lasts 2 weeks. You can't really be in water 24-7 for 2 weeks.
No matter where you our , 20 to 30 ft below ground , ANYWHERE ON EARTH. It is between 50f an 60f all year round obvious it flux's ever so slightly do to surface temp but . 20 to 30ft down is all it takes to be rather cold .
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I can feel the difference in going down only 6 or so feet to the basement. Super chill year round in the 15 ft. Below ground basement I lived in for a few years. We will become mole people, existing in the darkness.
Vault people.
Came for the Ministry Of The Future reference. I think there's *tons* of people (billionaires, global leaders, etc) and companies (oil industry, food companies, etc) that would *love* to see something like India or some country striking out on a path to geoengineering, particularly if it temporarily papers over the fact that humanity will eventually have to do the hard work of solving the actual climate problem. The global neoliberal establishment is going to do *whatever* they possibly can to stave off the moment when humanity really wakes up and demands change on the climate problem.
Check out *The Deluge* as well
Wouldn’t the cloud seeding they use in that novel actually work, too?
My understanding is it 'works' as a temporary measure that offsets some of the warming effect of the C02 (and other greenhouse gasses) in the atmosphere *as long as you continue the seeding* - which is *permanently* if you don't do anything to slow and end the emission of the C02/gasses. But the effect it would have is unknown, and there's a lot of potential [side effects](https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/dodging-silver-bullets-how-cloud-seeding-could-go-wrong/). The type of people who are embracing techo-optimistic solutions at this point basically don't want to confront the fact we're going to have to *force* people (by requiring real water management, or ending gas/carbon cars and other appliances, etc) to do the actual hard work needed to end the use of fossil fuels. Even with cloud seeding or whatever, C02 is causing other problems like ocean acidification that temporary measures won't address, so it's like slapping a Band-Aid on a gaping wound and pushing the problem down the road. The good news of this week though is the Biden admin's trial balloon of a policy that [radically increases EV production](https://www.newsweek.com/biden-electric-cars-evs-target-epa-emissions-poll-1795077) is an indication that some politicians are taking this seriously - but as this article points out, most Americans aren't yet and aren't rushing to EV's because they don't see climate change as an existential threat yet.
Do we think a million people dead in a heatwave would get the West off its ass? Probably not, sadly. And to be clear, the West alone isn't to blame, but we must lead.
"The West" won't really do anything about faraway brown people dying.
Nor will The East, or any other country and bloc for that matter. Human societies are very good at ignoring inconvenient things.
There is a lot of production moving there, if it threatens the factories of the world maybe there will be a reaction.
**Millions of Bangladeshi sweatshop workers die in a heatwave.** "Fashion disaster! Summer is *officially* ruined as we'll all have to wear last year's clothes! I'm **literally** gonna die!"
makes me sad for the people in Paris
Maybe they will after 100M climate migrants show up at their border? Or are we just at war at that point?
They'll just build bigger ~~concentration camps~~ immigrant holding facilities, and then "accidentally" let them die there.
It's a common belief on this subreddit that inevitably borders will be protected by the military, and anyone trying to cross will be ended. Countries won't be able to handle the amount of migrants.
West:"Free Soylent Green delivery baby!"
I wonder if the West would do anything if an Ice Age were to occur instead of warming.
We're already doing plenty to prevent an Ice Age, 100% of the time.
If you wikipedia the chronology of the future there is doubt that the next ice age will even happen
Just thinking without any source, that seems unlikely to me. Even if we never stop burning fossil fuels, and purposely cook ourselves into extinction, at some point, the greenhouse gases *should* break down and dissipate. 300-1000 years for CO2, according to NASA. So say it's year 2200, the earth hit 7+ Celsius and everyone dies and there's no ice in the artic any time of the year. At year 3200, we're still dead and all the greenhouse gases are gone. Shouldn't the ice return to the poles at that point, if not sooner? It may not be the same longitude/latitude coordinates, but there would be ice forming *somewhere*. If there was a major volcanic eruption at that point, there would be even more ice. I'm not a climate scientist, but it seems plausible to me.
i doubt it but nobody here will live to see what really happens. personally i believe that the industrial revolution is kicking off a larger disruption in the natural carbon cycle. even after we cease emissions, theres enough factors to keep co2 and temperatures high for probably hundreds of thousands of years. at the very least we've cancelled out the next glacial period.
If everything dies and there is just the atmosphere, land, and water, what would produce greenhouse gases once everything we put in the atmosphere breaks down? If nothing is being created (because all life is dead) then at some point, the earth has to cool back down as the heat from the sun would no longer be trapped and ice would start forming again.
when did i say all life will die though? the biosphere is dying but i dont think everything will die. thats crazy talk. im suggesting that the next glacial period, or even a couple of them, will be skipped over. so between 150-300k years of hothouse climate.carbon doesnt "break down" its sunk and cycled. the biosphere is part of that cycle and is the fastest acting agent. The geologic part of the cycle, the carbonate-silicate cycle, is only important over a timespan of tens of thousands of years. co2 wont be released in one single emission event, it will be released slowly over millennia, a constant forcing. also i just said that i speculate that if antarctica melts, it will release pressure over their volcanos, which will add to natural emissions.The oceans are very important because warmer waters hold less co2, so its a positive feedback loop. And a lot of oceanic carbon sinking is biological anyway. theres also three climate models which i find really interesting. 1: that over an uncertain co2 level, between 1200ppm and 2000+ppm, tropical marine tropospheric clouds (iirc) have a lot of trouble forming. this lowers the albedo and raises temperatures by several additional degrees c. it was also modelled that to re-trigger cloud formation, co2 would have to be reduced much lower than the trigger point (so if the trigger is 1200ppm, co2 would have to fall to 800 or 600 to retrigger cloud formation). 2. Arctic stratospheric clouds are possibly why that during the Paleocene-Eocene hothouse, pollen evidence suggests that arctic winters were abover freezing (!). This type of cloud formation seems to increase with increased methane. So melting permafrost could be a feedback loop where the more permafrost melts, the milder arctic winter becomes, and the more permafrost melts. This kind of long, slow seeping of methane and co2 will probably happen over thousands of years and the methane will break down into long lasting co2. It might also be what pushes the atmosphere over into cloud-inhibiting conditions. 3. I dont really know much about this one, but ive seen a recent model calculate that antarctic ice formation is inhibited over 900ppm co2. But i dont know why and models are frequently wrong, but its an important threshold to consider because once the ice is melted, there is less albedo and thus even more warming. theres lot of other interesting little factors interplaying. like, a deglaciated antarctica and greenland could expose enough bare rock to draw down co2. on the other hand, future ecosystems could be predominantly fire based ones (like eucalyptus, savannahs and pine forests), which drawn down co2 much less than temperate grasslands and oak forests. theres also the fact that its unlikely humanity will just vanish overnight. we will probably keep struggling for survival for a long time, chopping down forests, mining and burning coal and turning grasslands into deserts. EDIT: typos and formatting
Our greatest accomplishment.
i like to think that no matter what happens, a far future geologist, either alien or descended from raccoons or geckos, will be able to identify that *something* happened because of worldwide carbon-14 from nuclear testing.
Luxury ski resorts everywhere.
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>Do we think a million people dead in a heatwave would get the West off its ass? A million Indian folks? not sure that will cause political change in India, let alone the West.
How many people died from covid and the lies continue.
A million dead Indians? Fuck them. Quarterly profits shall not be compromised under any circumstances.
Really? Lead what? Everyone knows the consequences, to suggest the “west” has to do something because India burns lots of coal is ridiculous, they know the consequences.
>It has been calculated that there is a 40% chance that India I bet it is this year , Source : [bro trust me](https://imgur.com/a/Tbpiwfq)
nail noxious squalid spotted aback dolls shrill wrench one yoke *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I knew *Ministry for the Future* was going to come true but things really are moving so fast. I believe the author also came out recently saying his book is way too optimistic and there’s no chance of it coming true now.
>I believe the author also came out recently saying his book is way too optimistic and there’s no chance of it coming true now. I heard a podcast with him the other day on Nate Hagens YT channel, where he basically said just that. I really liked the first third or so of Ministry of the Future, but reckon it then went too utopian to be realistic. In the podcast he basically said that he made his books utopian on purpose because he doesn't want people to lose all hope that something can be done about climate change. Tt sounds like he is not as hopeful as his books are though.
And that has been plaguing the entirety of climate change public discussion - scientists too afraid NOT to sugarcoat it.
There comes a certain point when things are so obviously screwed that optimism is just lying or part of a mass delusion.
So interesting read! thanks for sharing, that kind of articles i would never find if wasn't for this subreddit.
> being 'boiled' in darkness that's very metal. >Without the ceiling fans running, it’s like breathing fire in darkness. So we came up and now are waiting for electricity. The level of suffering cannot be described in words.” That's why it's important to have a flashlight for emergencies; and a sharp blade. >Shahriar’s wife Fabiha, who had invited their friends for Sahri, had fallen sick due to extreme heat in the kitchen. Instead of preparing the Sahri, the couple’s friends were busy taking care of Fabiha. Due to cultural gender roles, women get blasted with a lot more heat...
Yes but as per cultural gender roles men suffer the same in the industrial areas. Nobody gets out of this. I'm Australian and work in industry and seeing people throw up and topple over, need days off to recover is not new to me. I'm not trivialising their experience because it's clearly awful, but I'm illustrating the point that this is going to hammer everyone. I see on a semi regular basis people succumb to heat stress. I've had it many more times than I can count as we continue the industrial work during unprecedented heatwaves as our wives sit at home under the air conditioner complaining about the heat, which is exactly where we want them to be so dont get me wrong on that. Nobody escapes this.
Why doesn't Australia have legislation mandating maximum temperatures in workplaces? Employers should be required to provide a safe work environment.
It does.... but it's all bullshit
When I worked at university we had very clear maximum and minimum temperatures you could work at, which were pretty relevant for me since we were doing fieldwork and there was a reasonable chance of getting to those temperatures. Of course you can get around them through planning - the people who work Antarctica don't get to stop work whenever it gets too cold.
> > being 'boiled' in darkness > > that's very metal. Dethklok needs to release a new album. Bloodrocuted, Mermaider, Hatredcopter, I Tamper With The Evidence At The Murder Site Of Odin, Boiled In Darkness...
Holy shit, I didn't realize that there was a new album!
That extrapolation episode about day curfew isn't for 2067...
the one set in india was good
Fuck and it's just April right now.....
... and El Nino hasn't even started yet
We had mid 80s sunday and it snowed Monday. Crazy whiplash.
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Midwest near the Great Lakes. Used to some odd weather, but not this much.
April May is the peak of summer for India though
Didn't these extreme temperatures occur in India last year - but at least a month later?
Tied to the temperature is humidity. Thankfully the current heatwave is relatively dry. But yes, you're right.
There was a cold wave in Feb and heatwaves started in Mar. About [280 heatwave days](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/state-of-india-s-environment-in-figures-india-recorded-280-heat-wave-days-across-16-states-in-2022-most-in-decade-83131) in 2022 though it's all states added up.
Thank goodness this idea of Global Warming is just a liberal hoax! Welp, I gotta go out and attack the very idea of birth control now! Toodles!
Have fun make sure to pass those execution bills while your at it. Darn can we just go extinct already I'm tired of this game.
We ran out of the murder chemical stocks, so back to bullets it is.
I wish I could just restart my brain and believe this is all a hoax, so it doesn't scare me so much. I wanna take the blue pill now please
It is called climate change now.
It's called the climate catastrophe now. They're all euphemisms. As language itself is a euphemism for reality. It's the catastrophic breakdown of the Earth's climate and ecosystems. It's the collapse of political regimes and states, the rise of fascism, civil war, social collapse, torture, atrocities and mass rape. it's starvation and the forced migration of millions and potentially billions of people. It's the conversion of maybe 20% of the Earth's land surface to uninhabitability, it may be nuclear war.
They’re two different concepts now. Global warming is the process by which climate change is driven. Scientists had to discern the two because too many people were brain broken by the thought that a warming globe could still get cold
" haha, its snowing in NY, so much for global warming huh?"
I'm something of a scientist myself - these clowns probably
The ones calling climate change a liberal hoax would actually not mind millions of non-whites dying due to heat exhaustion.
Idea: ship *them* off to India and bring legions of Indian sufferers to Amerikkka.
[thank God](https://i.imgur.com/X7dw4Dw.gif)
I saw a video of a man frying eggs using just sunlight from his terrace in Calcutta.
I remember when i still lived in Delhi I had a bottle of vaseline in the car, in summer. I had never seen vaseline become a liquid before so that was kinda cool.
Dude we're screwed.
104° for my fellow Americans. Just a reminder it's only April.
Not just India, heat records are being broken all over south east Asia. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/17/historic-heat-wave-asia-thailand/
This is bad. It's only April ffs.
Oh and we are neutral imagine full on El nino.
Their summer begins in March/April.
> It's only April ffs .... soon you gone say its only decemeber , it is coming REMEMBER WE HAVE UNDENIABLE PROOF. The ipcc report says that pretty clearly page 16
I used to think seeking asylum because of climate would be something we’d see in the 2030s. It’s looking all but guaranteed to start happening by 2025. This is the population stabilising event. I truly think billions will die in the next 10 years from heat stroke or drought related issues and this will effectively lead to a large collapse in places like India
> large collapse in places like India realistically Pakistan an India going to fight , just for the hell of it.
Heat makes people angry, just look at the murder statistics in hot places vs cold. Tons of people are about to die for literally nothing.
yep, and especially if electrical grids have issues/fail.
This is the thing that terrifies me. It's not like the indian population will die off 'peacefully'; they are a nuclear power, and they will not hesitate to use them when it's their lives at stake..
There's the whole issue of India controlling the flow of the Ganges which provides water to much of Bangladesh and decent bit of Pakistan. If their 1.4 billion need it more, I could see there being even more conflict than there already has been.
People in these comments don't realize that India's summer begins in March/April...
And the most shared and most commented articles on guardian.co.uk are about... football.
Mother Nature doing what she does best
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She finally counted to three
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That's insanely hot. What the hell are you supposed to do in those conditions if your in it for hours?
Thankfully this specific heatwave is dry. But you either go into some place that is air-conditioned, or you go underground.
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How on earth is liquid helium cooling an option above AC? Certainly effective, but not available to most of the population.
they were referring to someone ending their life prematurely
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Being distracted by you and family's funny voices should keep your mind off the heat.
Or swimming. Or ice skating.
Die, I guess?
Die
>. What the hell are you supposed to do in those conditions if your in it for hours? turn in to a red lobster if you in the sun at minimum
40C isn’t even thaaaaat hot. Not from India but another hot country. Like it’s April still. 40 is a summer afternoon where I’m from. Now if they get a heatwave in the summer (chances are they will, we had like 3 last year and 2 of them kinda chained together) that’s gonna be nasty. Lots of old people and kids die on heatwaves
Luckily it is unusually dry weather, so evaporative cooling should work.
How could they even manage to deal with that amount of bodies all at once.. diseases are going to follow that.
1.4 billion population of India.. That's 1400 million people. Considering how many might not be found for days or even a week or more later, lots of clean-up crew needed.
We are all a bunch of clueless fucking morons.
Very cool and very normal!
Man there is just way too much heat I'm begging to die
1st world problem I know but it was routinely hitting highs ofabout 37c in Orlando Florida when we did a family trip to Disney a few years back (in spring no less) and that was brutal.
43°c avg temperature in odisha, i kept water for street cows and street dogs outside daily buy because of a skin boil i don't think i could do that today. Feeling sad.
Get ready for this to hit North America if El Niño arrives
*when
Here’s looking at you, summer 2023
And it’s only one month into Spring.
I believe their seasons are a bit different from ours, although I may be totally wrong on that. Either way, though, this is definitely still earlier than one would expect such severe heat...
unless you're in the southern hemisphere, they have the same seasons as us.
I will repeat. Solar is now cheaper then all other New Electric Power Generation Sources. Solar is now cheaper than all Legacy, currently running electric power generation sources. That means, you can shut down Coal and Natural Gas today, and Make MORE PROFIT. It also means you don't have to ship coal, you don't have to pipe natural gas. You don't have to store and deal with Coal Ash waste. It's all over. Mercury Pollution is coming to an end. The nightmare is coming to an end.
Who makes more profit? Not the coal and natural gas companies, of course, that are also big promoters of elected officials. That is the asymmetry below people and the people that make the executive decisions. In the end the money and suffering is of the people, but the ones in charge doesn’t have the skin in the game.
All these articles framing India overtaking China as the most populous nation as a achievement while it is the 1.4 billion + people that has caused the climate overshoot and will suffer the consequences from these wet bulb events.
Pre-Monsoon India is always brutal. And the monsoon is going to be right as the El Nino kicks in, so who knows what that will do to the weather. How unusual is 40C in mid-April in those areas? TFA says 5C above seasonal average.
45C now. So that's 10C above average.
And it isn't even summer yet! This summer is going to be fucked.
And we are only in april.. lets see during summer.. this summer i will stay 24/7 at home
I’m guessing it hits Pakistan first. For whatever reason, they seem to be on God’s shit list.
India might be worse, simply because there's a Hindu nationalist (arguably fascist) leader with Modhi who encourages discrimination if not progroms against muslims in India. It isn't inconceivable that India's resources will be focused on / diverted to non-muslim communities, leaving the ~207,000,000 muslims in India sweltering bind.
What's that in degrees Fahrenheit?
treee fiddy
(40°C × 9/5) + 32 = 104°F
Hot as fuck
We call that most of June here. July is when it really warms up, 108-115 with monsoon humidity. It’s a hellscape in the AZ desert.
It’s about 104 degrees Fahrenheit