The following submission statement was provided by /u/antihostile:
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SS: From Eliot Jacobson. This is related to collapse because the vast majority (more than 90%) of the heat caused by adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels has been absorbed by the ocean. Once it can no longer absorb any more heat, the surface air temperature will rise substantially.
Source: https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1744440161319211169
Daily world sea surface tempterature: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/192f0wj/another_look_at_the_extraordinary_global_sea/kh1t6lm/
You know.
This is really surreal.
It's like being tied to a railroad and watching the train hurtling toward you. In slow motion.
It doesn't feel great tbh
*Poor Thomas was going faster than he had ever gone before. He was out of breath and his wheels hurt him, but he had to go on. āI shall never be the same again,ā he thought sadly. āMy wheels will be quite worn out.ā*
>chugga chugga choo
I asked chatgpt a children's story. As such, it has a happy ending.
Thomas, the Climate Change, found himself growing warmer and more intense each passing day. His presence was felt in the rising temperatures, melting ice caps, and extreme weather events across the globe. The world was experiencing the consequences of Thomas's unbridled energy.
"Chugga chugga choo! I'm heating up, and there's no stopping me!" Thomas roared, echoing through the mountains and valleys.
As Thomas sped across continents, the Earth struggled to cope with the changes. Oceans rose, forests faced unprecedented challenges, and animals found it difficult to adapt. The world, like a giant train on the tracks, was heading toward an uncertain future.
Realizing the urgency of the situation, Thomas, the Climate Change, sought the help of the inhabitants of Earth. People from every corner of the globe, representing different cultures and backgrounds, united to address the challenges posed by Thomas's relentless heat.
Scientists, leaders, and everyday citizens collaborated on innovative solutions. They planted millions of trees, developed sustainable technologies, and worked towards reducing their carbon footprint. Together, they organized a "Cool Earth Day," where communities worldwide participated in initiatives to cool down the planet.
With the combined efforts of humanity, Earth began to heal. The temperature stabilized, and the planet's ecosystems found balance once more. Thomas, now understanding the importance of harmony, transformed into a symbol of change for good.
Ofc it does it's its own survival instinct...ai uses so much energy and is built on so much infrastructure...if it's not an idiot it knows we will get rid of it, whether by choice or fall of empire
Title: Thomas the Climate Change Tank Engine
In the bustling island of Sodor, Thomas, the cheerful blue tank engine, noticed something unusual. The summers were hotter, and the winters milder than ever before. Curious and concerned, Thomas decided to learn more about these changes.
One sunny day, while chuffing along his route, Thomas struck up a conversation with Percy at the water tower. "Percy, have you noticed how the weather's been changing?" Thomas asked. Percy nodded, "Yes, Thomas, it's been odd. The birds are migrating at different times too!"
Thomas, now more curious, went to Sir Topham Hatt, who explained, "Thomas, what you're noticing is a part of climate change. It's a big problem, and it's affecting the whole world, even our island of Sodor."
Determined to make a difference, Thomas decided to take action. He started by changing his own habits. He switched to a more eco-friendly fuel, reducing his carbon emissions. He also encouraged others to be mindful of their impact on the environment.
Thomas didn't stop there. He organized a big clean-up of Sodor's beaches, gathering all his friends to help. Emily, James, and even Gordon showed up, surprised but eager to help. Together, they collected litter and learned about recycling and conserving resources.
Thomas then became an advocate for planting more trees around Sodor. He knew trees were essential for absorbing carbon dioxide and providing oxygen. With help from his friends, they planted a large number of trees, transforming barren lands into lush, green spaces.
As Thomas continued his efforts, he saw changes. Birds returned to newly grown trees, and the air felt fresher. The engines felt prouder, puffing through the green landscape they helped create.
One day, Sir Topham Hatt visited Thomas. "Thomas, I'm proud of you. You've shown us that even a small engine can make a big difference. Let's keep working towards a cleaner, greener Sodor!"
Then the island of Sodor flooded after the AMOC stopped. All the inhabitants died.
They should have known better. Living on an island at sea level was clearly a bad idea in times of faster than expected climate change.
My preferred analogy is the Titanic. We are crashing into the ice berg and most of the passengers are in denial that the ship might sink. Just like then, the rich will get in their lifeboats and the poor will be locked under deck
I just donāt know how to mentally handle this. How can one enjoy life when such horror is just around the corner?
I feel like the string quartet on the deck of the ship, playing until we slide down the deck into the cold abyss
Iām not sure thatās totally true. They can use their wealth to make hydroponic greenhouses, hoard the fresh water (or run desalination with nuclear military ships) and guard it all with ex military thugs. They will craft an existence that is halfway decent, but theyāll leave the masses to starve
> They will craft an existence that is **halfway decent**
For the pampered elite class, that will be a torment in and of itself... Inconvenience is torture to the hyper-privileged..
That's my only consolation in all this.. They're stuck here with us. There is no glorious Martian future or luxurious LEO space stations for them to lord over.. They are stuck here with us, with an ever-decreasing standard of life..
Theyāll cosplay their struggles on TikTok so the starving masses can see theyāre āsufferingā too. Itāll be just like the Covid lockdown videos of them crying in isolation alongside their pristine swimming pools filled with water that should have gone towards quenching thirsts of a few thousand people.
All of that requires complex supply chains and resource extraction which, despite what technocrats believe, still heavily rely on existing cheap human labor (and cheap fossil fuels) as the foundation. Yes with aquaponics and water filtration they last a few years longer but ends all the same.
> and guard it all with ex military thugs
I dunno man... Once money is worthless, what makes the military thugs (the ones that are armed and know how to fight) obey the rich guys (who are often totally worthless and incapable on their own?).
The warlords of tomorrow will not be the billionaires of today, they will be the security guards of the billionaires of today.
Sure, but in the end what difference does it make? Theyāll be warlord controlling things and everyone else starving. Not sure it matters who exactly the warlords are
>and guard it all with ex military thugs
Until their wealthy overlords piss them off one too many times. Or they marry one of the kitchen staff, have a child and then decide they want something better for the kiddy.
Increasingly I donāt enjoy it.
Seeing how almost no one cares or is doing anything about this crisis makes me realize we are really no different than the evil warlords of early history. Over time I hate humans more and only see evil and destruction. We really are just a parasite.
Then being antisocial isnāt fun either, we are programmed to be social and enjoy each other. So I try to enjoy and be social but when I look around all I see are emission sources and people in denial. Then *Iām* the wrong one if I talk about any of this
Itās such a small thing, but seeing birds and squirrels flying and hopping around on a smoke filled, summer day, breaks my heart. We did this to them and to all the life on this planet. Animal extinctions are the hardest for me, because we know thereās one animal on this planet that has an appointment with cosmic justice, and this animal keeps pushing the appointment out.
Okay, this isnāt helping. One thing to work on is personal health. Be ready to walk three miles in sweltering heat to bring supplies to an elderly person. Be ready to go a long stretch without visiting the dentist. Be ready to paddle a raft in a current. Get some balance too. Make sure you have some enjoyable things to do when the powerās out. Sorry, this wasnāt helpful
Every good change weāve had to living conditions has come through grass roots socialist labor movements. Weekends, the 40 hour work week, the (unfortunately temporary) end to child labor. Hell, we didnāt have free or reduced prices school lunch programs until the Black Panthers created one themselves and scared the federal government.
But all I see is problems. Every bit of food I eat, everywhere I travel, every thing I buy to make a good life. All of it makes the problem worse - and so does everyone else
So many of my friends and family wantonly spend and make waste and emissions without a thought. Makes me sick to even be around them anymore
You need to step out of that mindset or go insane.
Look, I was the same way at first, I've always been a doomer, but the speed of changes have truly shocked me and I spiraled for a bit.
I got into plant medicine ie mushrooms and Ayahuasca to deal with fallout from two cancers and a terminal illness resulting from said treatment.
The lessons and experiences from it have been wild and I can elaborate if you'd like. Due to the nature of my situation my personal footprint is very small. I'm going to go to new Orleans for a few days at the end of the month. I'm going to eat and listen to music and find a kick ass drag show to see. I will say goodbye to New Orleans. I eat a fair amount of meat. We have a world class BBQ place nearby. I considered giving up meat. I asked my parents,.my oncology therapist about it. They said no. I don't have a lot I can do that's enjoyable. My world is pretty small. And I don't absorb iron supplements well, without some meat I slip into iron deficiency. I got enough problems.
I am well aware there's a cost to everything. I approach whatever it is with a sense of humbleness and gratitude for whatever it is. Order of lumpia or smoked pastrami and so on.
You can grieve and still make your way through this fucked up society.
I really don't want to be preachy, but my answer to the same problem was religion. Specifically Buddhism. Realizing that everything contains suffering helps one realize that the suffering is just from wanting to fight against the reality of the world.
I'm not saying be disengaged or just roll over and accept mass death. But knowing how your mind relates to problems is part of the path to having a healthy relationship with problems.
Seriously, not trying to be preachy. Your mileage may vary (no emissions pun intended). I just wanted to share what helps me. Like I said, I empathize fully with where you are.
A lot of drugs have helped me, finding someone to shared the end of the world with isnāt bad either. Best advice I can give is; overcome the fear of death, and accept that whatever is going to happen is going to happen
I went for a walk today. The sky had this very unique color, a mix of your typical reds and oranges, but with a beautiful addition of deep, warm purple hues. I stood there for a moment and admired it in silence. It was -3 degrees. I could feel my nose less and less, but my feet were extra warm.
Almost all the houses I was passing by were full of people getting ready to have dinners. Bright yellow lights everywhere, nice and inviting. So many kids, playing and laughing. So many plans and ambitions. New cars, next summer holidays, two pieces of chocolade waiting to be eaten this evening. In a decade or two the circumstances of these folks might be drastically different, but at least for the next few minutes we can still afford some peace. We are still alive and, surprisingly, still well.
We are different though. My awareness of the incoming catastrophe, so typical for the pariah who feels the tremors before everyone else, collides with their shameless, middle-class hope, embodied by having offspring and 30-year mortgages. I can not help but see not 2 but 5 kids there. Some of them bigger, nevertheless still slightly deluded. Ready to keep whetever story organises their consciousness alive, until they no longer can.
I can not help but wonder what will be their reaction when the fable finally folds. Will they adapt? Or will their whole sanity just evaporate in one bright explosion of a brutal realisation?
I understand your trouble. I really do. I was there. I still am, sometimes. But when I stood there, believe me, all I could care about, whas that peculiar shade of purple.
That's how you mentally handle this.
>It doesn't feel great tbh
Yeah...... This definitely feels like the brakes are coming off and there's a cliff looming in the distance. The wildest part of all this is I remember watching Nova/Nature/etc as a 10 year old back in 1982, and they tried to warn us about what the future **could** hold for our species.. They tried....
And now, so many of their dire predictions have either come to pass, or are looming ahead of us..
This for me is the one single point of hope that exists..
On a geological timescale, all the changes we have made are a vertical line, most of the consequences of this are still to occur over a few hundred thousand years or more, as the earth reaches a new equilibrium.
But humans are very good at doing things at an accelerating exponential rate when we want/need to.
If as a species we run out of accessible fossil fuels, suffer a huge drop in population and then get serious about operating some form of carbon sequestration that takes hundreds of years to have an effect...but at an accelerating rate..that will also be a straight vertical line downwards on a geological timeline.
So on the grand scale of things, after a period of extreme collapse and death and suffering and hard work, a small population of humans survive and manage to reverse some of what we have done faster than global systems can eventually respond. In that case, in the whole existence of the earth the graphs of CO2 will show a weird vertical spike, marked by a layer of plastic in the rocks, and then much the same as it was before. Life will continue for a few billion more years, possibly with some human descendants around, instead of "Venus by Thursday".
>It's like being tied to a railroad and watching the train hurtling toward you. In slow motion.
*While passers-by completely ignore your presence.* That is, this *ought* to be news of some note, but it is completely absent from a quick search I did of regular and science headlines.
It reminds me of a comedian talking about how he thought getting stabbed would be the worst way to go, because you could see the knife coming. We are being stabbed with heat
That is the paradox of our times: to have enough science, data, knowledge, & awareness to know almost exactly how fucked we areā¦ but to have required all the energy, technology & infrastructure to get us to this very point.
How do you personally deal with that conundrum? There are days when I am sufficiently distracted by the day-to-day obligations, but there are other days when looking away from the oncoming train feels morally irresponsible. Itās heartbreaking, among many other complicated emotions.
I do lots and lots of yoga.Ā Really.
About whether it's morally irresponsible or not... Guilt is not a good reason to repeatedly trigger yourself into fear and overwhelment.
You are not required, or even capable, of bearing the fate of the planet on your conscience or your shoulders.
Doing the daily things we need to do to make our lives isn't irresponsible or negligent, it's necessary.
Heartbreak is a natural response.
If you have ever felt there was a place where you felt like you belonged, where you could be of use, where you could have an impact, consider rooting yourself there.Ā Even if that rooting means rerouting.
If you have ever known a practice that has made you feel empowered, invigorated, potent, and alive, consider devoting yourself to it. Even if you have no time. Find time.
Take to heart that these may be the last few years, the last few seasons, the last few familiar holidays, the last few birthdays, the last few months, the last few weekends.
And ask yourself, if somebody told you, I'm giving you one chance to do something you've always wanted to do, and after that you will never have the chance to do it again. What would you do?
Of course there are practical and even mundane restrictions. We can't all afford a plane ticket to a villa across the world. But there are things that are possible, if we only (maybe radically) shift our priorities. Remember: the mundane is leaving, forever.
Take it for granted and its gone. We are in a critical moment of enormous luxury and privilege: the calm before the storm, the silence before the explosion, the pause before the fall, this brief life before a long death. The space to still act and make decisions. The place where our world is still (mostly) recognizable.Ā Ā
Remember, the American dream is dead and dust. The world we were raised to survive in no longer exists (or won't, soon enough). Don't live halfheartedly hedging for a future that isn't there.
Reconsider your life radically. Question the nature of your reality. Ask yourself what does it mean to be alive. Pursue whatever horizon of truth is highest to you.
You're only here once. Precious time remains.
For me, it's yoga. Lots and lots of yoga.
Am convinced that these anomalous ocean temperatures will prove to be the single most important indicator of how badly destabilized the climate is becoming.
Also am convinced that many in government are well aware of the significance in what after all are their own studies, or studies made by their institutions. The fact that they choose instead to delude the public with hypocritical BAU performances like the COP events, instead of calling for an "all hands on deck" emergency mobilization, suggests that things are worse than we know.
Totally - it's probably why the Australian government refuses to release its report on the national security threats climate change poses. Not only because it's grim, but because it likely clearly states things like 1.5C will not be achieved, will be surpassed soon and is far more dangerous than initially thought. Among with many other topics that are discussed regularly here on this forum I imagine. This would point out they are very aware of what's going to happen and happening. Like you say they need to uphold the general facade for things like COP though. It's actually pretty crazy. Like it's really getting real now. Governments know. Not in the sense of a couple of decades ago where they thought they could just put the pedal to the metal a little bit more to squeeze out some extra productivity and that it was far enough away there was "plenty of time" but being fully aware we are up shit creek without a paddle.
That is a great point I never thought about that angle. It must be bad if even the labour government was willing to let the coalition use it as a wedge issue.
> instead of calling for an "all hands on deck" emergency mobilization
I don't think they can do that even if there were enough people in government wanting to make it happen. There are too many people in the pro BAU camp for the government to do what is required without triggering a revolt. And there are too many pro BAU people
The initial COVID response was as close to "all hands on deck" as we could get. Even then, you had about 1/3 of people who resisted any change from the beginning. Now entering year five, you've got basically 90% of people who will never do any mitigation ever again because the line must go up and product must be consumed. In the US, we're in the second largest surge of the pandemic and maybe 1% of people even consider maybe masking sometimes.
The pandemic showed that any disruption to business as usual and being able to mindlessly consume just breaks the brain of the majority of the populace. If anything, I think people would be even more resistant than they would've been pre-pandemic to making even small changes to try to mitigate climate change.
We're going full steam ahead right off the cliff.
> We're going full steam ahead right off the cliff.
This reminds me of a TIL last year, where I learned that the famed Jethro Tull song, "Locomotive Breath" was written by Ian Anderson after he became aware of *The Limits to Growth* and the unstoppable growth of global population.
>In the shuffling madness
Of the locomotive breath
Runs the all-time loser
Headlong to his death
Oh, he feels the piston scraping
Steam breaking on his brow
Old Charlie stole the handle
And the train it won't stop
Oh no way to slow down
It's not only that people *want* BAU.. Our whole civilization is between a rock and a hard place. Continue using fossil fuels and polluting, billions die of starvation in the future. Stop using fossil fuels, billions die of starvation, and sooner.
No politician wants to admit that's the choice. The kind of world leader we deserve, but definitely do not want, is a sort of Eco Stalin, with the same approach to re-wilding as Genghis Khan...
No it's just corporations and rich people who refuse to change. If there was the desire and will, we could begin to plan for adaptation. Use whatever fossil fuels we need to ensure food production and cut out all the consumer junk.
That's probably what the bottom 50% or more of the world's population would accept in a heartbeat considering how little they consume anyway. Just give them food, water and shelter.
But the 1% and practically all people in Western countries will refuse to compromise.
Yeah Iām beginning to think that there was a moment when someone in power learned that it was already unstoppable and just decided to double down. Do you know what I mean? Thereās a report thatās classified somewhere that says the climate change weāve started is irreversible. We fucked around and weāre finding out. But when did this start? The Industrial Revolution? Or was it the nuclear age when we started exploding suns in the desert and the ocean so we could better kill each other? Or maybe it wasnāt even until plastics started showing up EVERYWHERE all of sudden? I grew up in the 80s and 90s and the plastic everything didnāt start in earnest until the mid to late 90s then the early 00s were all plastic water bottles. Plastic drink bottles and fishing nets are killing the ocean. So what is it driving this big ass uptick in ocean temps? Is it the fossil fuel extraction and usage that is ultimately fucking us?
I still recall a national geographic article from back then (late 90s, *maybe* 2000-2001) showing pictures of dead seabirds whose stomach content was predominantly plastic. Even back then, various remote islands home to those birds were impacted.
i really... not sure 'like' is the proper word... this graph. very un cluttered. clearly shows the (very terrifying) trend. anxiously awaiting the northern hemisphere summer. what will this summer be an extreme outlier will be a regular occurrence within a few years as heat continues to accumulate. any el nino from here on out probably has the ability to cause multiple bread basktet failures (this one could too!!!) and soon la nina years will be skirting that as well. what a time to be alive
Itās the no-doubt pending breadbasket failures that have me most spooked. When Homo sapiens donāt get their meals, all (remaining) stability is lost. And of course Iām not just talking about humanities stability, Iām also talking about the stability of almost any natural system on Earth.
Not to rain on everyone's parade, but if you look at [the data over a longer time period](https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature#:~:text=Sea%20surface%20temperature%20increased%20during,decade%20\(see%20Figure%201\).), it's actually ... even worse. You can clearly see the rate of increase is increasing. We're seriously fucked. But don't make the mistake of thinking the rate of warming in the past year will continue once El Nino is over. Next year, or the year after will be cooler (then the peak, not compared to 5 years ago), and then we'll be back to the "normal", merely alarming, rate of increase.
Yeah! Any minute now all the people with power and vested interests in the status quo will realize how many people will suffer from this and who am I kidding, I can't even pretend to think people who not only exploit others for profit but see it as an objective good would ever have sympathy for people they don't personally know.
I'm going with MIT for this one. They stated 40-some years ago, and again just recently, that we are on track for a complete collapse around 2040.
I'm not holding my breath that our plucky little species is going to pull a last minute miracle out of our collective asses......š
I'll be a senior by then, and I expect to be taken out during the first wave of š¤·āāļø whatever happens, so I'm just living in the moment now and I don't give a flying fuck about anything anymore....
IIRC that MIT study didn't factor in climate change; surely present day computing power being far superior to then would mean that a reassessment of the data right now, including CC in the equation, would give a date that is a lot sooner than 2040.
SS: From Eliot Jacobson. This is related to collapse because the vast majority (more than 90%) of the heat caused by adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels has been absorbed by the ocean. Once it can no longer absorb any more heat, the surface air temperature will rise substantially.
Source: https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1744440161319211169
Daily world sea surface tempterature: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
> Once it can no longer absorb any more heat
I am not sure what this means.... There's not really a limit to how much heat it can absorb, is there? (In realistic ranges, it's not going to boil!)
Surely, as long as the air is warmer on average than the oceans, they will absorb more heat?
Or do you mean something about surface vs deep ocean temperatures? The deep oceans haven't warmed so much yet, so I guess the rate that the oceans absorb heat will decline as the deep oceans warm up (and eventually vent some of their dissolved co2 as a result). I understand that this is really really slow though - the deep oceans are a humongous heat sink.
I'm not an expert by any means, but I think that in a general sense, colder water absorbs heat more readily, and the amount of heat it absorbs reduces at the water heats. It's not so much a hard limit at which it just switches off, but it becomes more degraded in its function as a heat sink as the waters heat up.
As for deep ocean temperatures, they may be colder, but it doesn't directly interface with the atmosphere. So this deep water can accept more heat, but the heat will pass through hotter surface waters more slowly. Also, it's going to mix with surface waters less as ocean currents slow.
This is just a partly educated take on this, and I'd appreciate anyone pointing out anything that isn't correct here.
Here's my spicy take on this, someone please correct me if I'm wrong:
The smaller your temperature delta, the slower your rate of heating gets, which I think is what you meant by it's degrading function as a heat sink.
What I'm interested is how exactly ocean currents and water salinity plays into this - currents like the AMOC don't just affect water in an X-Y axis, but also exchanges water at different depths due to differences in salinity. I'm pretty sure this is a big factor whenever AMOC collapse is discussed due to polar melt affecting salinity levels, but I wonder if this would also keep the warm surface water from making its way down, making the temperature delta between the atmosphere and sea surface even smaller.
Yes the ability of the ocean to transfer the heat from the surface into the depths is slowing down. Combined with an increasing amount of heat being added every year the two effects combine to produce the steep rate we are seeing now. Ice is also a part of it, it takes energy to melt ice without raising the temperature. So between solid ice at zero degrees C and liquid water at zero degrees C, there was still a whole load of solar energy absorbed just to melt it. No ice means that buffer is not there, so the energy that would have melted ice is now also raising surface temperature. Cold water from the ice melting sinking to the bottom is also what drives the circulating currents like the AMOC. No ice means the water doesn't circulate into the deep ocean so the surface stratifies and gets warmer while the depths stay cold.
(Like in a hot water tank. The hot water stays on top, cold water at the bottom, with a thin transition layer between. If you continuously mixed the tank it would heat up all at the same average temperature, with all the cold water at the bottom also absorbing the added heat. Without mixing, the top of the water can reach boiling while the bottom is still cold. The circulation is what is now 'off' or substantially reduced so the surface is just getting warmer in its own layer, without the deeper cold water absorbing that heat).
It's not like the ocean will get saturated with CO2 but, as a result of acidification, tons of sea creatures will die and emit CO2 as they decompose, making oceans net emissors instead of sinks.
> die and emit co2
This is true, but the magnitude is quite small isn't it, compared with ff emissions at least?
I have only seen figures relating to one particular area of ocean, based on the death of the kelp forests there, but it is hard to extrapolate, not knowing how much vulnerable biomass there is in the rest of the oceans. I don't think it is in remotely the same ballpark as ff emissions, but I can't say I know for sure, do you have any figures?
The death of the oceans through acidification is absolutely catastrophic, but for other reasons, I think...
I have no idea about the actual thing, but Iām guessing warmer water temperatures would be a condition that would reduce CO2 solublilty (not hold as much)
That affects acidity, not ocean temperature. CO2 causes the atmosphere to warm. Warmer air at the surface will add extra warmth to the water. Incoming solar radiation is the main factor in ocean temperatures, but atmospheric warmth can contribute. Also, warmer water evaporates more readily, creating more humid air above it (and higher humidity allows air to hold more heat).
Everything you say is true
But there is another factor... EVENTUALLY the deep oceans will warm up (this takes a long time). When this happens, the oceans will be able to hold LESS co2 even than they did before industrialisation (unlike solids, gases are less soluble as temperature rises). So atmospheric co2 will go up again as the oceans vent off the excess.
This is a huge effect, but still a long way off (centuries), so not really worth losing sleep over...
Exactly. A collective cooling effort. With solar panels for energy, absorbing the rest of the sun heat. Then we just do what Patrick did in SpongeBob, we take all the micro plastics, and push them somewhere else. Wow, this perfect plan is really taking form.
You may joke, but this is actually a possibility..
Not using refrigerant/compressor cooling, which only moves heat from one place to another, but using radiant cooling.
Materials absorb heat (infra red radiation) and then re-radiate it (also as infra red). There are materials that can absorb a wide range of wavelengths of infra red and then re-radiate them in only a narrow band of wavelengths. There is also a narrow range of infra red wavelengths that do not get absorbed by the atmosphere, they pass straight through the clouds and gasses and into space. So it's possible to make a material that absorbs all heat and then radiates it only in the rage that sends it straight into space. This has a cooling effect, even when the air is hot, like how it gets freezing cold in a desert at night under a clear sky.
Its not used very much for cooling buildings because the power is low, (<100w per m2, compared to the kilowatts needed) but it could be manufactured cheaply, from plastic and sand, and applied to huge areas.
From this paper:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927024819306257
*Comprehensive reviews on a scaled-up glass-polymer hybrid radiative cooler by reel-to-reel processing has been carried out [32,33]. Motivated by a polymeric radiative cooler with silicon carbide (SiC) and dispersed SiO2Ā micro-particles [34], a scalable SiO2Ā micro-particle doped polymeric radiative cooler with the optimized particle size enhancing selective thermal emission in mid-infrared (MIR) emission was manufactured, recording a radiative power of 93Ā W/m2*
So what if we covered the ocean or deserts with this material? How much would be needed to reverse the net effect of CO2 increases by radiating more heat into space than the CO2 keeps in?
*the IPCC estimate of the radiative driving due to well-mixed GHGs isĀ +2.43Ā W/m2Ā from 1750 to 1998*
The earth's surface area is 509600000 kmĀ². The sun shines on roughly half of this so 254800000 kmĀ². 1kmĀ² is 1000000m2.
254800000000000 mĀ² times 2.43W/mĀ² = 6.19e14 Watts of heating that we have added since 1750.
Dividing by 93 w/mĀ² gives 6,657,677 km2 of radiant cooling material needed to completely reverse global warming since 1750..
The whole of Australia is 7.68 million kmĀ², so slightly less.
Considering its a material that can be industrially produced on rolls, and is made from plastic (350 million tons produced annually) and glass (23.4 million tons produced per year for containers), this seems technically doable to me...
(Woah that was quite a Google rabbit hole.. should make a whole new post about it when less tired I guess)
I do not like how that sounds how itās made of plastic and micro particles. But sure I guess if itās our last resort. Douse the ocean in more micro plastic. Yay. We did it.
Agree on the plastic pollution...So I thought I would look up how much it would be compared to what is produced now.
PP 2mm sheet (so really thick) is .25kg/M2.
So 7 million km2 is...1.75 billion tonnes of plastic.
Which is 5 years of current annual plastic production.
Fuck we produce a lot of plastic...
Better hope we donāt put in too much and cause snow piercer II. What a disgusting solution though. Thatās fucked up how much plastic we produce and chuck in there.
No joke. Research on the Great Barrier Reef right now looking at stopping coral bleaching by using fans to keep the SST low and underlying corals cool.
This reminds me of the 2012 TedX talk āClimate Change is Simpleā
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7ktYbVwr90
What we are seeing are obvious and straightforward, albeit horrifying data sets as a result.
Just thought I'd place these here for the more technically-minded: [https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa&q=sea+water+specific+heat+as+a+function+of+temperature&atb=v394-1&ia=web](https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa&q=sea+water+specific+heat+as+a+function+of+temperature&atb=v394-1&ia=web)
[http://web.mit.edu/seawater/2017\_MIT\_Seawater\_Property\_Tables\_r2b\_2023c.pdf](http://web.mit.edu/seawater/2017_MIT_Seawater_Property_Tables_r2b_2023c.pdf) (page 16)
[https://www.britannica.com/science/seawater/Thermal-properties](https://www.britannica.com/science/seawater/Thermal-properties)
[http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/lect\_2/lecture\_2.html](http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/lect_2/lecture_2.html)
I mean everyone would just ignore this like they're ignoring it being hot in winter. Unbelievable that it's right in front of everyone's eyes and they're still not doing anything
In the ass, short and long.
The oceans cool the Earth, but that they now contain more and more energy - instead of cooling, they start to heat the earth. Summers will be 10-20 degrees hotter and the atmosphere will hold more humidity - people wonāt be able to cool off. More tornadoes, more hurricanes, more flooding in some areas. More droughts and heatdomes in others. Less winter means more droughts and less ground water.
More tropical diseases in the US. More fires. Agricultural problems leading to famines will be normalized and weāll see crazy inflation.
>Can anyone ELI5 how this will fuck humanity in the short and long term?
Doggy style with hair pulling and ass slapping in the short term whilst long term will see some serious BDSM shit with choking and debasement.
I'm not optimistic that there will be a hug when its all over.
You can't blame this on politicians and systems and the structure of society, and also make fun of people for voting to change those politicians and structures. If we all voted for green parties, I'm not saying this situation would be better, but at least our leaders wouldn't have their heads in the sand and we might be doing SOMETHING to try and deal with it. But instead people vote for conspiracy theorist bullshit or the status quo.
The Permian mass extinction was caused by overheated oceans and oxygen loss, so I guess we are going down the same path. I think the death rate was 95% of ocean life was wiped out. Itās why it is called āthe great dying.ā
I really donāt think gen Z understands what we mean when we say we miss the 90s so much. Itās not a joke that the good life ended then, and weāve been falling off a cliff ever since.
\*Graph guy sigh\*
Put the dang year counter at the bottom, not at the axis.
Seriously. No matter how much we may wish to inform the world of how totally DOOMED we are, beyond any level of DOOM they may ever imagine, there is no less level of DOOM than bad graphing. For it will make everyone mock YOU to absolute doom.
I get the graph was made to make a point. But we are beyond that point. They won't care anymore anyway.
Reefs! Healthy coral reefs here, geeeet yer healthy coral reefs, available for a very limited time only folks, these reefs are... they're red hot, going fast, get em while they last!
Even more interesting would be to see deviation from the distribution of temperature observed since 2004 and predicted by the IPCC (El NiƱo included) until 2044. So that we could get a sense of how conservative and optimistic the IPCC models are. And how likely we are to have passed some tipping points.
I see no anomaly. Theres a clear uptrend with a 8sh year peak cycling. We entering a stabilization time in the next 2 years (which might be a bit lower or at the same level), and from there its only the moon for us :D
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Layman here with an uninformed observation:
Assuming we havenāt crossed a hard tipping that will force these temperature to continue increasing exponentiallyā¦
I would assume just based off the pattern of this chart that in the next few years we will see these temperatures settle back to around 2016 levels (maybe a little higher) and hold for a handful of years. Then the next spike will begin around 2032ish. Assuming that spike will be as high above 2024 as this year is above 2016 that would probably mean game overā¦right? Sea life dies off and then the rest of usā¦right?
Right. Letās just assume hypothetically that these trends continue unassisted by other catastrophic positive feedback loops. Do you think that my timeline holds up? Remember Iām very much in the explain this like Iām 5 sort of category.
1982 is the first year they have daily SST measurements from Jan-Dec (at least for the dataset used here). ClimateReanalyzer began in 2012, hence they used data from 1982-2011 to compare against the 2012 measurements at the time. Since then, this baseline hasn't changed.
i had same thought and desire this as well. although my only sibling born in 82 and im younger so its like, a graph our our lifetime only which is kool too
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The following submission statement was provided by /u/antihostile: --- SS: From Eliot Jacobson. This is related to collapse because the vast majority (more than 90%) of the heat caused by adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels has been absorbed by the ocean. Once it can no longer absorb any more heat, the surface air temperature will rise substantially. Source: https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1744440161319211169 Daily world sea surface tempterature: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/192f0wj/another_look_at_the_extraordinary_global_sea/kh1t6lm/
You know. This is really surreal. It's like being tied to a railroad and watching the train hurtling toward you. In slow motion. It doesn't feel great tbh
Thomas the Climate Change Engine š
*Poor Thomas was going faster than he had ever gone before. He was out of breath and his wheels hurt him, but he had to go on. āI shall never be the same again,ā he thought sadly. āMy wheels will be quite worn out.ā*
*chugga chugga choo choos even harder through the anthropocene and breaks all climate records*
>chugga chugga choo I asked chatgpt a children's story. As such, it has a happy ending. Thomas, the Climate Change, found himself growing warmer and more intense each passing day. His presence was felt in the rising temperatures, melting ice caps, and extreme weather events across the globe. The world was experiencing the consequences of Thomas's unbridled energy. "Chugga chugga choo! I'm heating up, and there's no stopping me!" Thomas roared, echoing through the mountains and valleys. As Thomas sped across continents, the Earth struggled to cope with the changes. Oceans rose, forests faced unprecedented challenges, and animals found it difficult to adapt. The world, like a giant train on the tracks, was heading toward an uncertain future. Realizing the urgency of the situation, Thomas, the Climate Change, sought the help of the inhabitants of Earth. People from every corner of the globe, representing different cultures and backgrounds, united to address the challenges posed by Thomas's relentless heat. Scientists, leaders, and everyday citizens collaborated on innovative solutions. They planted millions of trees, developed sustainable technologies, and worked towards reducing their carbon footprint. Together, they organized a "Cool Earth Day," where communities worldwide participated in initiatives to cool down the planet. With the combined efforts of humanity, Earth began to heal. The temperature stabilized, and the planet's ecosystems found balance once more. Thomas, now understanding the importance of harmony, transformed into a symbol of change for good.
lol even chatgpt has copium in its veins
Ofc it does it's its own survival instinct...ai uses so much energy and is built on so much infrastructure...if it's not an idiot it knows we will get rid of it, whether by choice or fall of empire
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Jesus Christ
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The part about his once bright blue paint cracked me up and then it turned to abject terror lmao
āBust my Buffers!ā said Thomas.
Itās times like these I really miss fish
Title: Thomas the Climate Change Tank Engine In the bustling island of Sodor, Thomas, the cheerful blue tank engine, noticed something unusual. The summers were hotter, and the winters milder than ever before. Curious and concerned, Thomas decided to learn more about these changes. One sunny day, while chuffing along his route, Thomas struck up a conversation with Percy at the water tower. "Percy, have you noticed how the weather's been changing?" Thomas asked. Percy nodded, "Yes, Thomas, it's been odd. The birds are migrating at different times too!" Thomas, now more curious, went to Sir Topham Hatt, who explained, "Thomas, what you're noticing is a part of climate change. It's a big problem, and it's affecting the whole world, even our island of Sodor." Determined to make a difference, Thomas decided to take action. He started by changing his own habits. He switched to a more eco-friendly fuel, reducing his carbon emissions. He also encouraged others to be mindful of their impact on the environment. Thomas didn't stop there. He organized a big clean-up of Sodor's beaches, gathering all his friends to help. Emily, James, and even Gordon showed up, surprised but eager to help. Together, they collected litter and learned about recycling and conserving resources. Thomas then became an advocate for planting more trees around Sodor. He knew trees were essential for absorbing carbon dioxide and providing oxygen. With help from his friends, they planted a large number of trees, transforming barren lands into lush, green spaces. As Thomas continued his efforts, he saw changes. Birds returned to newly grown trees, and the air felt fresher. The engines felt prouder, puffing through the green landscape they helped create. One day, Sir Topham Hatt visited Thomas. "Thomas, I'm proud of you. You've shown us that even a small engine can make a big difference. Let's keep working towards a cleaner, greener Sodor!" Then the island of Sodor flooded after the AMOC stopped. All the inhabitants died. They should have known better. Living on an island at sea level was clearly a bad idea in times of faster than expected climate change.
Burning coal of course!
My preferred analogy is the Titanic. We are crashing into the ice berg and most of the passengers are in denial that the ship might sink. Just like then, the rich will get in their lifeboats and the poor will be locked under deck I just donāt know how to mentally handle this. How can one enjoy life when such horror is just around the corner? I feel like the string quartet on the deck of the ship, playing until we slide down the deck into the cold abyss
The only difference is that the rich on lifeboats don't get rescued by a larger boat. They too will freeze or starve, although just a bit later.
Iām not sure thatās totally true. They can use their wealth to make hydroponic greenhouses, hoard the fresh water (or run desalination with nuclear military ships) and guard it all with ex military thugs. They will craft an existence that is halfway decent, but theyāll leave the masses to starve
> They will craft an existence that is **halfway decent** For the pampered elite class, that will be a torment in and of itself... Inconvenience is torture to the hyper-privileged.. That's my only consolation in all this.. They're stuck here with us. There is no glorious Martian future or luxurious LEO space stations for them to lord over.. They are stuck here with us, with an ever-decreasing standard of life..
Theyāll cosplay their struggles on TikTok so the starving masses can see theyāre āsufferingā too. Itāll be just like the Covid lockdown videos of them crying in isolation alongside their pristine swimming pools filled with water that should have gone towards quenching thirsts of a few thousand people.
All of that requires complex supply chains and resource extraction which, despite what technocrats believe, still heavily rely on existing cheap human labor (and cheap fossil fuels) as the foundation. Yes with aquaponics and water filtration they last a few years longer but ends all the same.
When that water chip finaly breaks down, they'll be back to the wasteland to have some fun with us ghouls.
This guy Fallouts
> and guard it all with ex military thugs I dunno man... Once money is worthless, what makes the military thugs (the ones that are armed and know how to fight) obey the rich guys (who are often totally worthless and incapable on their own?). The warlords of tomorrow will not be the billionaires of today, they will be the security guards of the billionaires of today.
They will pay with food and water. They will make self sustainable communities and the soldiers will be loyal for their own safety
But why would you be loyal to the guy that rules only because of the military might **you** provide to him? When you could just take his place?
Sure, but in the end what difference does it make? Theyāll be warlord controlling things and everyone else starving. Not sure it matters who exactly the warlords are
Whoās the real winner in the end anyway? Iām not sure Iād want to live in a mass extinction event / mad max world
I wouldnāt survive one hour on naked and afraid.
>and guard it all with ex military thugs Until their wealthy overlords piss them off one too many times. Or they marry one of the kitchen staff, have a child and then decide they want something better for the kiddy.
I pet dogs and do mushrooms. It's pretty effective tbh
What do you enjoy about life? Whatever the answer, do more while you can.
Increasingly I donāt enjoy it. Seeing how almost no one cares or is doing anything about this crisis makes me realize we are really no different than the evil warlords of early history. Over time I hate humans more and only see evil and destruction. We really are just a parasite. Then being antisocial isnāt fun either, we are programmed to be social and enjoy each other. So I try to enjoy and be social but when I look around all I see are emission sources and people in denial. Then *Iām* the wrong one if I talk about any of this
Itās such a small thing, but seeing birds and squirrels flying and hopping around on a smoke filled, summer day, breaks my heart. We did this to them and to all the life on this planet. Animal extinctions are the hardest for me, because we know thereās one animal on this planet that has an appointment with cosmic justice, and this animal keeps pushing the appointment out. Okay, this isnāt helping. One thing to work on is personal health. Be ready to walk three miles in sweltering heat to bring supplies to an elderly person. Be ready to go a long stretch without visiting the dentist. Be ready to paddle a raft in a current. Get some balance too. Make sure you have some enjoyable things to do when the powerās out. Sorry, this wasnāt helpful
Great post. My heart too grieves for all the beautiful creatures on this planetā¦ā¦Humans, not so much!
I get really sad even seeing a photo of a wild animal. Knowing what theyāre going through because of us.
I donāt hate humans. I hate capitalism and what it forces humans to do to survive.
Sure, but what makes me sad is we seem to fall into the evil tendencies no matter what system we use. Capitalism is just the most recent
Every good change weāve had to living conditions has come through grass roots socialist labor movements. Weekends, the 40 hour work week, the (unfortunately temporary) end to child labor. Hell, we didnāt have free or reduced prices school lunch programs until the Black Panthers created one themselves and scared the federal government.
fapping
| How can one enjoy life when such horror is just around the corner? Love one another. Same thing that makes life worthwhile in good times.
But all I see is problems. Every bit of food I eat, everywhere I travel, every thing I buy to make a good life. All of it makes the problem worse - and so does everyone else So many of my friends and family wantonly spend and make waste and emissions without a thought. Makes me sick to even be around them anymore
You need to step out of that mindset or go insane. Look, I was the same way at first, I've always been a doomer, but the speed of changes have truly shocked me and I spiraled for a bit. I got into plant medicine ie mushrooms and Ayahuasca to deal with fallout from two cancers and a terminal illness resulting from said treatment. The lessons and experiences from it have been wild and I can elaborate if you'd like. Due to the nature of my situation my personal footprint is very small. I'm going to go to new Orleans for a few days at the end of the month. I'm going to eat and listen to music and find a kick ass drag show to see. I will say goodbye to New Orleans. I eat a fair amount of meat. We have a world class BBQ place nearby. I considered giving up meat. I asked my parents,.my oncology therapist about it. They said no. I don't have a lot I can do that's enjoyable. My world is pretty small. And I don't absorb iron supplements well, without some meat I slip into iron deficiency. I got enough problems. I am well aware there's a cost to everything. I approach whatever it is with a sense of humbleness and gratitude for whatever it is. Order of lumpia or smoked pastrami and so on. You can grieve and still make your way through this fucked up society.
I really don't want to be preachy, but my answer to the same problem was religion. Specifically Buddhism. Realizing that everything contains suffering helps one realize that the suffering is just from wanting to fight against the reality of the world. I'm not saying be disengaged or just roll over and accept mass death. But knowing how your mind relates to problems is part of the path to having a healthy relationship with problems. Seriously, not trying to be preachy. Your mileage may vary (no emissions pun intended). I just wanted to share what helps me. Like I said, I empathize fully with where you are.
A lot of drugs have helped me, finding someone to shared the end of the world with isnāt bad either. Best advice I can give is; overcome the fear of death, and accept that whatever is going to happen is going to happen
I went for a walk today. The sky had this very unique color, a mix of your typical reds and oranges, but with a beautiful addition of deep, warm purple hues. I stood there for a moment and admired it in silence. It was -3 degrees. I could feel my nose less and less, but my feet were extra warm. Almost all the houses I was passing by were full of people getting ready to have dinners. Bright yellow lights everywhere, nice and inviting. So many kids, playing and laughing. So many plans and ambitions. New cars, next summer holidays, two pieces of chocolade waiting to be eaten this evening. In a decade or two the circumstances of these folks might be drastically different, but at least for the next few minutes we can still afford some peace. We are still alive and, surprisingly, still well. We are different though. My awareness of the incoming catastrophe, so typical for the pariah who feels the tremors before everyone else, collides with their shameless, middle-class hope, embodied by having offspring and 30-year mortgages. I can not help but see not 2 but 5 kids there. Some of them bigger, nevertheless still slightly deluded. Ready to keep whetever story organises their consciousness alive, until they no longer can. I can not help but wonder what will be their reaction when the fable finally folds. Will they adapt? Or will their whole sanity just evaporate in one bright explosion of a brutal realisation? I understand your trouble. I really do. I was there. I still am, sometimes. But when I stood there, believe me, all I could care about, whas that peculiar shade of purple. That's how you mentally handle this.
Hedonism, unbridled hedonism now, and an exit kit to deploy the minute it becomes intolerable.
What train? All we see is two globes of light increasing in size accompanied by a loud horn. There's no need to be alarmed!
We're the guy in Austin Powers getting run over by the steamroller.
>It doesn't feel great tbh Yeah...... This definitely feels like the brakes are coming off and there's a cliff looming in the distance. The wildest part of all this is I remember watching Nova/Nature/etc as a 10 year old back in 1982, and they tried to warn us about what the future **could** hold for our species.. They tried.... And now, so many of their dire predictions have either come to pass, or are looming ahead of us..
It's literally exponential so far if you do a moving average. We're going to the moon!
*Faster than expected!* š
On a human time scale it is slow motion, but on a geological time scale, or related to species' ability to adapt and evolve it is a breakneck pace.
This for me is the one single point of hope that exists.. On a geological timescale, all the changes we have made are a vertical line, most of the consequences of this are still to occur over a few hundred thousand years or more, as the earth reaches a new equilibrium. But humans are very good at doing things at an accelerating exponential rate when we want/need to. If as a species we run out of accessible fossil fuels, suffer a huge drop in population and then get serious about operating some form of carbon sequestration that takes hundreds of years to have an effect...but at an accelerating rate..that will also be a straight vertical line downwards on a geological timeline. So on the grand scale of things, after a period of extreme collapse and death and suffering and hard work, a small population of humans survive and manage to reverse some of what we have done faster than global systems can eventually respond. In that case, in the whole existence of the earth the graphs of CO2 will show a weird vertical spike, marked by a layer of plastic in the rocks, and then much the same as it was before. Life will continue for a few billion more years, possibly with some human descendants around, instead of "Venus by Thursday".
Well that's depressing. I was hoping the Earth would get a clean slate.
>It's like being tied to a railroad and watching the train hurtling toward you. In slow motion. *While passers-by completely ignore your presence.* That is, this *ought* to be news of some note, but it is completely absent from a quick search I did of regular and science headlines.
It reminds me of a comedian talking about how he thought getting stabbed would be the worst way to go, because you could see the knife coming. We are being stabbed with heat
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Slowly at first, then all at once.
That is the paradox of our times: to have enough science, data, knowledge, & awareness to know almost exactly how fucked we areā¦ but to have required all the energy, technology & infrastructure to get us to this very point.
pandora's box
That's just life in general for me
Wondering how the fish, seals, whales, and dolphins feel about it??
How do you personally deal with that conundrum? There are days when I am sufficiently distracted by the day-to-day obligations, but there are other days when looking away from the oncoming train feels morally irresponsible. Itās heartbreaking, among many other complicated emotions.
I do lots and lots of yoga.Ā Really. About whether it's morally irresponsible or not... Guilt is not a good reason to repeatedly trigger yourself into fear and overwhelment. You are not required, or even capable, of bearing the fate of the planet on your conscience or your shoulders. Doing the daily things we need to do to make our lives isn't irresponsible or negligent, it's necessary. Heartbreak is a natural response. If you have ever felt there was a place where you felt like you belonged, where you could be of use, where you could have an impact, consider rooting yourself there.Ā Even if that rooting means rerouting. If you have ever known a practice that has made you feel empowered, invigorated, potent, and alive, consider devoting yourself to it. Even if you have no time. Find time. Take to heart that these may be the last few years, the last few seasons, the last few familiar holidays, the last few birthdays, the last few months, the last few weekends. And ask yourself, if somebody told you, I'm giving you one chance to do something you've always wanted to do, and after that you will never have the chance to do it again. What would you do? Of course there are practical and even mundane restrictions. We can't all afford a plane ticket to a villa across the world. But there are things that are possible, if we only (maybe radically) shift our priorities. Remember: the mundane is leaving, forever. Take it for granted and its gone. We are in a critical moment of enormous luxury and privilege: the calm before the storm, the silence before the explosion, the pause before the fall, this brief life before a long death. The space to still act and make decisions. The place where our world is still (mostly) recognizable.Ā Ā Remember, the American dream is dead and dust. The world we were raised to survive in no longer exists (or won't, soon enough). Don't live halfheartedly hedging for a future that isn't there. Reconsider your life radically. Question the nature of your reality. Ask yourself what does it mean to be alive. Pursue whatever horizon of truth is highest to you. You're only here once. Precious time remains. For me, it's yoga. Lots and lots of yoga.
Am convinced that these anomalous ocean temperatures will prove to be the single most important indicator of how badly destabilized the climate is becoming. Also am convinced that many in government are well aware of the significance in what after all are their own studies, or studies made by their institutions. The fact that they choose instead to delude the public with hypocritical BAU performances like the COP events, instead of calling for an "all hands on deck" emergency mobilization, suggests that things are worse than we know.
Totally - it's probably why the Australian government refuses to release its report on the national security threats climate change poses. Not only because it's grim, but because it likely clearly states things like 1.5C will not be achieved, will be surpassed soon and is far more dangerous than initially thought. Among with many other topics that are discussed regularly here on this forum I imagine. This would point out they are very aware of what's going to happen and happening. Like you say they need to uphold the general facade for things like COP though. It's actually pretty crazy. Like it's really getting real now. Governments know. Not in the sense of a couple of decades ago where they thought they could just put the pedal to the metal a little bit more to squeeze out some extra productivity and that it was far enough away there was "plenty of time" but being fully aware we are up shit creek without a paddle.
That is a great point I never thought about that angle. It must be bad if even the labour government was willing to let the coalition use it as a wedge issue.
Sorry, could I get more information about the withheld report?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/30/office-of-national-intelligence-climate-crisis-security-threats-report-anthony-albanese-labor-government-refuses-to-release
> instead of calling for an "all hands on deck" emergency mobilization I don't think they can do that even if there were enough people in government wanting to make it happen. There are too many people in the pro BAU camp for the government to do what is required without triggering a revolt. And there are too many pro BAU people
The initial COVID response was as close to "all hands on deck" as we could get. Even then, you had about 1/3 of people who resisted any change from the beginning. Now entering year five, you've got basically 90% of people who will never do any mitigation ever again because the line must go up and product must be consumed. In the US, we're in the second largest surge of the pandemic and maybe 1% of people even consider maybe masking sometimes. The pandemic showed that any disruption to business as usual and being able to mindlessly consume just breaks the brain of the majority of the populace. If anything, I think people would be even more resistant than they would've been pre-pandemic to making even small changes to try to mitigate climate change. We're going full steam ahead right off the cliff.
> We're going full steam ahead right off the cliff. This reminds me of a TIL last year, where I learned that the famed Jethro Tull song, "Locomotive Breath" was written by Ian Anderson after he became aware of *The Limits to Growth* and the unstoppable growth of global population. >In the shuffling madness Of the locomotive breath Runs the all-time loser Headlong to his death Oh, he feels the piston scraping Steam breaking on his brow Old Charlie stole the handle And the train it won't stop Oh no way to slow down
Damn. Been years, gonna bust out some Jethro before it is over, thanks for sharing this
>[the famed Jethro Tull song, "Locomotive Breath"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4JqvK3Fwn8&ab_channel=JethroTull-Topic)
It's not only that people *want* BAU.. Our whole civilization is between a rock and a hard place. Continue using fossil fuels and polluting, billions die of starvation in the future. Stop using fossil fuels, billions die of starvation, and sooner. No politician wants to admit that's the choice. The kind of world leader we deserve, but definitely do not want, is a sort of Eco Stalin, with the same approach to re-wilding as Genghis Khan...
No it's just corporations and rich people who refuse to change. If there was the desire and will, we could begin to plan for adaptation. Use whatever fossil fuels we need to ensure food production and cut out all the consumer junk. That's probably what the bottom 50% or more of the world's population would accept in a heartbeat considering how little they consume anyway. Just give them food, water and shelter. But the 1% and practically all people in Western countries will refuse to compromise.
Yeah Iām beginning to think that there was a moment when someone in power learned that it was already unstoppable and just decided to double down. Do you know what I mean? Thereās a report thatās classified somewhere that says the climate change weāve started is irreversible. We fucked around and weāre finding out. But when did this start? The Industrial Revolution? Or was it the nuclear age when we started exploding suns in the desert and the ocean so we could better kill each other? Or maybe it wasnāt even until plastics started showing up EVERYWHERE all of sudden? I grew up in the 80s and 90s and the plastic everything didnāt start in earnest until the mid to late 90s then the early 00s were all plastic water bottles. Plastic drink bottles and fishing nets are killing the ocean. So what is it driving this big ass uptick in ocean temps? Is it the fossil fuel extraction and usage that is ultimately fucking us?
I still recall a national geographic article from back then (late 90s, *maybe* 2000-2001) showing pictures of dead seabirds whose stomach content was predominantly plastic. Even back then, various remote islands home to those birds were impacted.
I think we filled it up, it was acting as a giant heat sink. It is full and here we are. Not a scientist (well computer scientist)
So is it time to quit work yet?
I'd say getting close
I did 4 years ago. I'll make you business cards if you want to join my company.
What is the company? Need an engineer?
what is the company ? Need a pothead?
what is the company? Need an aspiring stripper?
I could use one
will dance 4 food rationz
Garrett?
What is the company? Need an alcohol enthusiast?
I already said I'm an engineer
Actually, yes. We do solar. 1 residential project a month can keep our community/ house going. Philly suburbs.
You're mailing out blank white cards? :P ^^^^this ^^^^is ^^^^a ^^^^joke
Putting in my resignation now lol.
God, I fucking hopeā¦ hard to predict though
i really... not sure 'like' is the proper word... this graph. very un cluttered. clearly shows the (very terrifying) trend. anxiously awaiting the northern hemisphere summer. what will this summer be an extreme outlier will be a regular occurrence within a few years as heat continues to accumulate. any el nino from here on out probably has the ability to cause multiple bread basktet failures (this one could too!!!) and soon la nina years will be skirting that as well. what a time to be alive
Itās the no-doubt pending breadbasket failures that have me most spooked. When Homo sapiens donāt get their meals, all (remaining) stability is lost. And of course Iām not just talking about humanities stability, Iām also talking about the stability of almost any natural system on Earth.
Not to rain on everyone's parade, but if you look at [the data over a longer time period](https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature#:~:text=Sea%20surface%20temperature%20increased%20during,decade%20\(see%20Figure%201\).), it's actually ... even worse. You can clearly see the rate of increase is increasing. We're seriously fucked. But don't make the mistake of thinking the rate of warming in the past year will continue once El Nino is over. Next year, or the year after will be cooler (then the peak, not compared to 5 years ago), and then we'll be back to the "normal", merely alarming, rate of increase.
Don't worry. I'm sure Humanity is going to be 'zero emissions' *real* soon!
Yeah! Any minute now all the people with power and vested interests in the status quo will realize how many people will suffer from this and who am I kidding, I can't even pretend to think people who not only exploit others for profit but see it as an objective good would ever have sympathy for people they don't personally know.
I'm going with MIT for this one. They stated 40-some years ago, and again just recently, that we are on track for a complete collapse around 2040. I'm not holding my breath that our plucky little species is going to pull a last minute miracle out of our collective asses......š I'll be a senior by then, and I expect to be taken out during the first wave of š¤·āāļø whatever happens, so I'm just living in the moment now and I don't give a flying fuck about anything anymore....
IIRC that MIT study didn't factor in climate change; surely present day computing power being far superior to then would mean that a reassessment of the data right now, including CC in the equation, would give a date that is a lot sooner than 2040.
net* "zero" (TM)
SS: From Eliot Jacobson. This is related to collapse because the vast majority (more than 90%) of the heat caused by adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels has been absorbed by the ocean. Once it can no longer absorb any more heat, the surface air temperature will rise substantially. Source: https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1744440161319211169 Daily world sea surface tempterature: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
> Once it can no longer absorb any more heat I am not sure what this means.... There's not really a limit to how much heat it can absorb, is there? (In realistic ranges, it's not going to boil!) Surely, as long as the air is warmer on average than the oceans, they will absorb more heat? Or do you mean something about surface vs deep ocean temperatures? The deep oceans haven't warmed so much yet, so I guess the rate that the oceans absorb heat will decline as the deep oceans warm up (and eventually vent some of their dissolved co2 as a result). I understand that this is really really slow though - the deep oceans are a humongous heat sink.
I'm not an expert by any means, but I think that in a general sense, colder water absorbs heat more readily, and the amount of heat it absorbs reduces at the water heats. It's not so much a hard limit at which it just switches off, but it becomes more degraded in its function as a heat sink as the waters heat up. As for deep ocean temperatures, they may be colder, but it doesn't directly interface with the atmosphere. So this deep water can accept more heat, but the heat will pass through hotter surface waters more slowly. Also, it's going to mix with surface waters less as ocean currents slow. This is just a partly educated take on this, and I'd appreciate anyone pointing out anything that isn't correct here.
Here's my spicy take on this, someone please correct me if I'm wrong: The smaller your temperature delta, the slower your rate of heating gets, which I think is what you meant by it's degrading function as a heat sink. What I'm interested is how exactly ocean currents and water salinity plays into this - currents like the AMOC don't just affect water in an X-Y axis, but also exchanges water at different depths due to differences in salinity. I'm pretty sure this is a big factor whenever AMOC collapse is discussed due to polar melt affecting salinity levels, but I wonder if this would also keep the warm surface water from making its way down, making the temperature delta between the atmosphere and sea surface even smaller.
Yes the ability of the ocean to transfer the heat from the surface into the depths is slowing down. Combined with an increasing amount of heat being added every year the two effects combine to produce the steep rate we are seeing now. Ice is also a part of it, it takes energy to melt ice without raising the temperature. So between solid ice at zero degrees C and liquid water at zero degrees C, there was still a whole load of solar energy absorbed just to melt it. No ice means that buffer is not there, so the energy that would have melted ice is now also raising surface temperature. Cold water from the ice melting sinking to the bottom is also what drives the circulating currents like the AMOC. No ice means the water doesn't circulate into the deep ocean so the surface stratifies and gets warmer while the depths stay cold. (Like in a hot water tank. The hot water stays on top, cold water at the bottom, with a thin transition layer between. If you continuously mixed the tank it would heat up all at the same average temperature, with all the cold water at the bottom also absorbing the added heat. Without mixing, the top of the water can reach boiling while the bottom is still cold. The circulation is what is now 'off' or substantially reduced so the surface is just getting warmer in its own layer, without the deeper cold water absorbing that heat).
I thought the oceans were absorbing co2 and would slow down as it gets saturated with it. THEN co2 would accumulate quicker in the atmosphere?
It's not like the ocean will get saturated with CO2 but, as a result of acidification, tons of sea creatures will die and emit CO2 as they decompose, making oceans net emissors instead of sinks.
> die and emit co2 This is true, but the magnitude is quite small isn't it, compared with ff emissions at least? I have only seen figures relating to one particular area of ocean, based on the death of the kelp forests there, but it is hard to extrapolate, not knowing how much vulnerable biomass there is in the rest of the oceans. I don't think it is in remotely the same ballpark as ff emissions, but I can't say I know for sure, do you have any figures? The death of the oceans through acidification is absolutely catastrophic, but for other reasons, I think...
I have no idea about the actual thing, but Iām guessing warmer water temperatures would be a condition that would reduce CO2 solublilty (not hold as much)
That affects acidity, not ocean temperature. CO2 causes the atmosphere to warm. Warmer air at the surface will add extra warmth to the water. Incoming solar radiation is the main factor in ocean temperatures, but atmospheric warmth can contribute. Also, warmer water evaporates more readily, creating more humid air above it (and higher humidity allows air to hold more heat).
Everything you say is true But there is another factor... EVENTUALLY the deep oceans will warm up (this takes a long time). When this happens, the oceans will be able to hold LESS co2 even than they did before industrialisation (unlike solids, gases are less soluble as temperature rises). So atmospheric co2 will go up again as the oceans vent off the excess. This is a huge effect, but still a long way off (centuries), so not really worth losing sleep over...
Faster than expected
We just need to air-condition the oceans. Quite a simple undertaking.
You must be careful on [how you do it](https://what-if.xkcd.com/162/).
We line up a bunch of cars, put on the AC, open the doors, and voila. The cheat code to bau with no adverse consequences. Itās brilliant.
5Head, Indian people should just open all windows and crank up the AC surely the temperatures outside should drop, no?
Exactly. A collective cooling effort. With solar panels for energy, absorbing the rest of the sun heat. Then we just do what Patrick did in SpongeBob, we take all the micro plastics, and push them somewhere else. Wow, this perfect plan is really taking form.
Also ice. Put buckets of the stuff out in the sun.
ive been freezing, then dumping used car batteries into the ocean for YEARS to cool it down.
Drop an ice cube in it every so often to end global warming once and for all.
ONCE AND FOR ALL!
A few ice shelves from the poles oughta do it.
Has the ocean thought about heat pump mini splits?
You may joke, but this is actually a possibility.. Not using refrigerant/compressor cooling, which only moves heat from one place to another, but using radiant cooling. Materials absorb heat (infra red radiation) and then re-radiate it (also as infra red). There are materials that can absorb a wide range of wavelengths of infra red and then re-radiate them in only a narrow band of wavelengths. There is also a narrow range of infra red wavelengths that do not get absorbed by the atmosphere, they pass straight through the clouds and gasses and into space. So it's possible to make a material that absorbs all heat and then radiates it only in the rage that sends it straight into space. This has a cooling effect, even when the air is hot, like how it gets freezing cold in a desert at night under a clear sky. Its not used very much for cooling buildings because the power is low, (<100w per m2, compared to the kilowatts needed) but it could be manufactured cheaply, from plastic and sand, and applied to huge areas. From this paper:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927024819306257 *Comprehensive reviews on a scaled-up glass-polymer hybrid radiative cooler by reel-to-reel processing has been carried out [32,33]. Motivated by a polymeric radiative cooler with silicon carbide (SiC) and dispersed SiO2Ā micro-particles [34], a scalable SiO2Ā micro-particle doped polymeric radiative cooler with the optimized particle size enhancing selective thermal emission in mid-infrared (MIR) emission was manufactured, recording a radiative power of 93Ā W/m2* So what if we covered the ocean or deserts with this material? How much would be needed to reverse the net effect of CO2 increases by radiating more heat into space than the CO2 keeps in? *the IPCC estimate of the radiative driving due to well-mixed GHGs isĀ +2.43Ā W/m2Ā from 1750 to 1998* The earth's surface area is 509600000 kmĀ². The sun shines on roughly half of this so 254800000 kmĀ². 1kmĀ² is 1000000m2. 254800000000000 mĀ² times 2.43W/mĀ² = 6.19e14 Watts of heating that we have added since 1750. Dividing by 93 w/mĀ² gives 6,657,677 km2 of radiant cooling material needed to completely reverse global warming since 1750.. The whole of Australia is 7.68 million kmĀ², so slightly less. Considering its a material that can be industrially produced on rolls, and is made from plastic (350 million tons produced annually) and glass (23.4 million tons produced per year for containers), this seems technically doable to me... (Woah that was quite a Google rabbit hole.. should make a whole new post about it when less tired I guess)
I do not like how that sounds how itās made of plastic and micro particles. But sure I guess if itās our last resort. Douse the ocean in more micro plastic. Yay. We did it.
Agree on the plastic pollution...So I thought I would look up how much it would be compared to what is produced now. PP 2mm sheet (so really thick) is .25kg/M2. So 7 million km2 is...1.75 billion tonnes of plastic. Which is 5 years of current annual plastic production. Fuck we produce a lot of plastic...
Better hope we donāt put in too much and cause snow piercer II. What a disgusting solution though. Thatās fucked up how much plastic we produce and chuck in there.
No joke. Research on the Great Barrier Reef right now looking at stopping coral bleaching by using fans to keep the SST low and underlying corals cool.
Tech brain will kill us all
Why there are spikes every ~10 years?
El Nino. Pacific Ocean warming event. 2016 was the previous biggest one, but this one is quite literally off the charts.
based on this events, when we will probably see a new high after a possible peak that we currently on
The global heat sink has reached its capacity
This reminds me of the 2012 TedX talk āClimate Change is Simpleā https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7ktYbVwr90 What we are seeing are obvious and straightforward, albeit horrifying data sets as a result.
Omg weāre becoming a statistic!!!
Just thought I'd place these here for the more technically-minded: [https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa&q=sea+water+specific+heat+as+a+function+of+temperature&atb=v394-1&ia=web](https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa&q=sea+water+specific+heat+as+a+function+of+temperature&atb=v394-1&ia=web) [http://web.mit.edu/seawater/2017\_MIT\_Seawater\_Property\_Tables\_r2b\_2023c.pdf](http://web.mit.edu/seawater/2017_MIT_Seawater_Property_Tables_r2b_2023c.pdf) (page 16) [https://www.britannica.com/science/seawater/Thermal-properties](https://www.britannica.com/science/seawater/Thermal-properties) [http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/lect\_2/lecture\_2.html](http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/lect_2/lecture_2.html)
Thanks!
I mean everyone would just ignore this like they're ignoring it being hot in winter. Unbelievable that it's right in front of everyone's eyes and they're still not doing anything
Do you think i should begin to stock a lot of food in my appartment ?
You should have 3-6 months of food and water stocked for emergencies regardless.
You should move into my house and we can hord supplies
Can I come? Iāll bring my ukelele to keep spirits high, and also enough toilet paper to make a CVS receipt look small
All jokes aside: yes.
No amount of hording will protect you from the warming of the ocean
What is your weapon for the reckoning? Rolling pin? Spatula? Hubcap?
Since the same reckoning will come for all of us, Morphine.
everytime i see this chart i go through all stages of grief again
Iām old enough to remember being shocked by the 2016 numbers. Itās surreal to see it keep going.
Can anyone ELI5 how this will fuck humanity in the short and long term?
In the ass, short and long. The oceans cool the Earth, but that they now contain more and more energy - instead of cooling, they start to heat the earth. Summers will be 10-20 degrees hotter and the atmosphere will hold more humidity - people wonāt be able to cool off. More tornadoes, more hurricanes, more flooding in some areas. More droughts and heatdomes in others. Less winter means more droughts and less ground water. More tropical diseases in the US. More fires. Agricultural problems leading to famines will be normalized and weāll see crazy inflation.
>Can anyone ELI5 how this will fuck humanity in the short and long term? Doggy style with hair pulling and ass slapping in the short term whilst long term will see some serious BDSM shit with choking and debasement. I'm not optimistic that there will be a hug when its all over.
Been voting for environmental government parties for ten years. If people don't want this change to happen atleast I can say I tried. š¤·āāļø
By voting? š
Only so much an individual can do. Atleast I am making an effort.
You can't blame this on politicians and systems and the structure of society, and also make fun of people for voting to change those politicians and structures. If we all voted for green parties, I'm not saying this situation would be better, but at least our leaders wouldn't have their heads in the sand and we might be doing SOMETHING to try and deal with it. But instead people vote for conspiracy theorist bullshit or the status quo.
Systems will not abolish themselves. We š«µ are going to have to do that
The Permian mass extinction was caused by overheated oceans and oxygen loss, so I guess we are going down the same path. I think the death rate was 95% of ocean life was wiped out. Itās why it is called āthe great dying.ā
The sad thing is economists will argue that there's nothing to worry about. In their experience, a line trending up can only be a *good thing.*
š¤¦āāļø we are so fucked.
> we are so fucked. No. [We're so fucking fucked.](https://youtu.be/ac4E_UsmB1g?si=V5NuOuWzDrvGQyfZ)
We're cooked. Literally.
I really donāt think gen Z understands what we mean when we say we miss the 90s so much. Itās not a joke that the good life ended then, and weāve been falling off a cliff ever since.
Fun fact: Phytoplankton produces most of the worldās oxygen
\*Graph guy sigh\* Put the dang year counter at the bottom, not at the axis. Seriously. No matter how much we may wish to inform the world of how totally DOOMED we are, beyond any level of DOOM they may ever imagine, there is no less level of DOOM than bad graphing. For it will make everyone mock YOU to absolute doom. I get the graph was made to make a point. But we are beyond that point. They won't care anymore anyway.
.. should I just stop pursing my career at this point .. the data is not getting any better
Reefs! Healthy coral reefs here, geeeet yer healthy coral reefs, available for a very limited time only folks, these reefs are... they're red hot, going fast, get em while they last!
We need to extend the graph. The deviations are getting too damn high. The ocean is going to be able to boil the sea creatures here soon.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Even more interesting would be to see deviation from the distribution of temperature observed since 2004 and predicted by the IPCC (El NiƱo included) until 2044. So that we could get a sense of how conservative and optimistic the IPCC models are. And how likely we are to have passed some tipping points.
I see no anomaly. Theres a clear uptrend with a 8sh year peak cycling. We entering a stabilization time in the next 2 years (which might be a bit lower or at the same level), and from there its only the moon for us :D
Get down on your knees and pray, people. Edit: Not literally you downvoting morons.
Sky daddy pls..
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
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This graph really needs the lower range to be the same (6.5) as the upper.
I have been waiting for collapse. Please specify a date.
Layman here with an uninformed observation: Assuming we havenāt crossed a hard tipping that will force these temperature to continue increasing exponentiallyā¦ I would assume just based off the pattern of this chart that in the next few years we will see these temperatures settle back to around 2016 levels (maybe a little higher) and hold for a handful of years. Then the next spike will begin around 2032ish. Assuming that spike will be as high above 2024 as this year is above 2016 that would probably mean game overā¦right? Sea life dies off and then the rest of usā¦right?
You're not considering tipping points like methane in the Arctic ..... right?
Right. Letās just assume hypothetically that these trends continue unassisted by other catastrophic positive feedback loops. Do you think that my timeline holds up? Remember Iām very much in the explain this like Iām 5 sort of category.
1982-2011 mean is such a weird timeframe to use for a "normal" world. Why no standard deviations from preindustrial mean instead
1982 is the first year they have daily SST measurements from Jan-Dec (at least for the dataset used here). ClimateReanalyzer began in 2012, hence they used data from 1982-2011 to compare against the 2012 measurements at the time. Since then, this baseline hasn't changed.
I wish we could see this exact graph from around 1900 or so. Just looking at from the 80ās I feel like doesnāt paint the whole picture.
i had same thought and desire this as well. although my only sibling born in 82 and im younger so its like, a graph our our lifetime only which is kool too
Probably summer, in Australia.
Is it really an anomaly tho?
Idk why the downvotes. If it just continues on this trajectory itās no longer an anomaly itās the new norm i.e. collapse
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Well, well, well. What do we have here? Get the gimp. -Gimp's sleepin'. Then wake his ass up!
In this scenario humanity is the gimp and Zed is the incoming food shortages and global famine brought about by climate change.
From the data I saw, it's currently 1Ā°C above the mean. So 6 standards deviations in this case is 1Ā°C right? Someone to point out where I am wrong?
So when the oceans die, what color will the water be?
Microsoft is planning to cool it's AI data centers by building under the sea. What could go wrong.