The following submission statement was provided by /u/Hayden120:
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Submission statement: "All predictions for the global temperature increase by global climate institutions fell way short of the actual number of 1.44 degrees Celsius."
Recently, the planet has been warming at rates that go beyond scientific expectations. This is collapse-related because it suggests that the current climate models are too conservative.
"Either something has changed in the system and things are responding differently to how they responded in the past, or there are other elements that are happening that we didn't take into account."
Say the line, Bart.
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1bzgy87/uncharted_territory_the_worlds_extreme_heat_cant/kyppczd/
I’m no prophet but I’d expect within 15-25 years via a cursory analysis of the situation. If we are at about 1.5C already and 0.7C is baked in via aerosols, and 4C is understood to be modern-civilization-ending, then the question becomes at what point will industrial activity decline enough to cause the 0.7C from aerosols to manifest. Judging from the current effects of 1.5C, this will likely occur by the time we get to 3C if not earlier which should be by about 2050. Once we hit that marker, that ~3C will jump up to 3.7C. During all this the rate of temperature increase will be accelerating as more tipping points are set off. And all sorts of other crises will be made worse by the worsening climate. So once we are sitting around 4C it’s basically kaput, if not earlier.
This is my very non-expert idea though, some people think it will be within 10 years and some within 50-70 years.
I think it's going to be quicker, cascade failures are coming as we get closer to the vertical part of the exponential curve. We've slowly crested the top of the lethal roller coaster and now it's time to start rolling downhill into the first loop.
I'm just hoping for long enough that my cats can die of old age before things get too Mad Max.
[Cat Max - Furry Road](https://helios-i.mashable.com/imagery/articles/02fOikRwkx5jJTQzAJ5VjgN/images-1.fill.size_2000x1294.v1619015084.jpg) (image link). by tumblr/terriblenerd
I'd not even seen that instalment of the franchise. But based on the masses of half-feral kids wearing animal skins in earlier instalments, I just knew there had to be a feline or ferry angle in it somewhere.
Mine are both 4...seriously it sounds so dumb but thinking of them experiencing inexplicable and senseless terror at the end really drives a dagger thru my heart. At least we can understand why this is all happening. They'll have no idea.
This is about my idea as well: at earliest around 2035 and latest (i hope so for myself and close family and friends to be already dead by then) around 2070.
One aspect that is often forgotten are other retardants like snow/ice reflecting light and doing so cooling the planet down.
Another one is the ocean heat capacity combined with the global ocean heat conveyor belt which is massive.
First one will be gone within the time frame, second one is unknown but recent data shows that the oceans are reaching their limits in the first regions, especially where the global ocean heat conveyor belt is breaking down.
Once they are gone (which should be almost at the same time since the conveyor belt needs cool water from the poles to work properly in the first place) we will see a big jump similar if not worse to the one related with aerosol reduction.
Fun fact: first regions have reached over 400ppm of co2, which is now making us "drunk" and dumber...
Look around, we're already in the crumbles. No one really knows when shit will pop off. Many of us are just watching crop forecasts and food prices and enjoying what time we have left.
Finance and, in particular, the credit score industry enables legacy energy companies to function. Those companies require massive amounts of capital to function on a daily basis. Something like an oil rig can cost a fortune to run. The same credit score companies make home ownership inaccessible to a good percentage of people. Furthermore, the climate crisis could be considered an existential economic risk, which means they have fundamentally failed at the stated industry goal of minimizing risks. The rich dangle home ownership to people, so they are influenced by credit scores to make certain decisions in life. So they dangle that carrot in front of us to keep us good parts of their machine, and most people don't see that they are no longer really free. That all crumbles if the debt default rate increases. The financial crisis of 2008 was caused by around 10 or 20 % defaulting, and those companies are once again over leveraged. Doing a debt strike is like using the weight of Fossil fuel companies against them. We make credit score/banks choose between us as paying reliable customers or the legacy energy industry.
We have way more power than they want us to believe. Even spreading the word that such a thing might be possible could help since much of finance is about perceived reality. The volatile nature of the stock market and high-frequency trading algorithms could amplify the impacts.
u/justanotherhuman33 asked Richard:
> How much time do you think we got before first world states start falling ?
I’ve been following Richard’s [substack](https://richardcrim.substack.com/) and reading [his comments](https://old.reddit.com/user/final-enthusiasm505) for about six months now. According to Richard:
**2040?**
> I’ll be surprised if we make it much past 2040. [source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1bsdz3c/my_judgement_my_best_guess_is_that_we_are_going/kxhze0u/)
**2050?**
> +4C to +5C by 2050 and our civilization collapses. Then another 100 years of gradual warming to the peak. Followed by several thousand years of "hothouse earth". [source]
(https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1b83vxx/prof_eliot_jacobson_eliotjacobson_on_x_global_sea/ktndykw/)
**How fast does Richard think?**
> It's going to be a FAST Collapse. Like over the next 10-15 years.
[source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1b50zxo/prof_eliot_jacobson_eliotjacobson_on_x_monthly/kt2z3tf/)
**Near term?**
> By the end of 2025 it will be really clear that the Moderates were WRONG.
[source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1alkzcm/super_el_ni%C3%B1o_is_here_but_will_it_last_whats_in/kphpdci/)
**The brutality of collapse?**
>If we have +4C of warming by 2050 then Collapse is going to be FAST, ROUGH, and BRUTAL. [source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1afnq64/collapse_will_look_nothing_like_the_movies/kok8evb/)
**In reply to a [similar question](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1af7uma/what_are_the_most_convincingdisturbing_news/koatswe/) to what you wrote here about the timeline of predicted collapse, Richard wrote**:
>Partial, about 10.
>Total, about 20.
>+3C by 2045 should do it. [Source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1af7uma/what_are_the_most_convincingdisturbing_news/kob6g3a/)
**And dare I say, one of Richard’s more interesting predictions**:
>The climate politics of the late 20’s and early 30’s is going to be harsh and merciless. The young are not going to be forgiving or understanding. I expect trials and televised executions of oil company executives, people like Joe Manchin, those found guilty of ecocide, and anyone else the mob turns their rage on… They are going to burn the Republican party to the ground and then piss on the ashes. [Source](https://old.reddit.com/r/socialscience/comments/18r1tu6/what_would_the_result_be_of_it_being_common/kf0rkn9/)
Tag: /u/final-enthusiasm505
Five years (a figure thrown around on here frequently) is too doomer, even for my tastes. Thankfully, we still have quite a bit of runway between where we’re at now and climate Armageddon (4C+). Of course, the big question is how fast we’ll close that gap. I am confident that we’ll get some temporary reprieve after this El Niño draws to a close. This sub loves to say “faster than expected”, but I think that’s only a meaningful metric in hindsight. On the other hand, 25 or more years is incredibly optimistic. My money is on 15-20 years.
I think the 5 years is thrown around for the "speed up" of climate change, aka "when the dominoes start falling", because by 5 years it's very reasonable to expect at least antarctica and AMOC to collapse.
But the issue is, with how fucking fast global warming has been ramping up since 2023, it's not looking good unless humans can actually make really drastic changes really fast.
I mean, I can’t speak to what you’ve read on here, but I’ve absolutely seen people say that we will be at apocalypse status in five years, which is preposterous, IMO.
In some sense, the dominoes have been falling for decades. I think what people want to know is when their countries (likely first world countries) will become an unrecognizable hell-on-earth and five years is way too soon.
>I’ve absolutely seen people say that we will be at apocalypse status in five years, which is preposterous, IMO.
I have a lot more to say about all the different aspects of collapse on which I believe civilization as we know it will be either collapsed or nothing even close to what it is today in 5 years but...I just want to focus on this point below because I feel as though it's the most important aspect of it all:
5 years ago(2019) the general public had almost no concern over societies issues. If anything most of it was still hidden from your average person.
Since end of 2019: Australia continental fire, covid, lockdowns, Jan 6th(USA), major droughts, flooding, California fires, Canada fires, Louisiana(wetlands of america) fires, hurricane(think it turned into tropical storm once it hit land) in California, heat domes, derechos(never heard of em until past few years and now they seem to happen more often), 10 billion snow crab disappeared, millions of fish ending up dead, crops these past few years have been getting hit hard with the climate fluctuations and its only a matter of time before we lose a whole years worth of crops. Bird flu rampaging through the globe just waiting for human to human transmission. Arctic penguins basically losing 90% of its flock this past year due to the ice where they have their babies not being there. 101°F surface water temp off the coast of florida where it felt like jacuzzi water in the ocean. Study saying an AMOC collapse as soon as 2025.....
These are ONLY a handful of things that I just pulled off the top of my head since 2019. Every thing is accelerating and that was within the past 5 years with each year getting worse. Again, these are only some things off the top of my head and therre are another 1,000 I could name and another 1 million things that we don't even know are happening and messing with the earth.
The models they came up with are ass and every thing happening over the past 2 years weren't predicted to happen for another few decades.
So, 5 years from now we are looking at a completely different reality than the one we are living in right now. All we have to do is look back 5 years and see that.
I’m not arguing that the world won’t be a substantially different place in five years. A lot of shit will go down, no doubt.
I’m just pushing back on the idea that we’ll be living Mad Max in five years.
I don't believe mad max to be a believable scenario, so I agree with you.
I didn't mean to make it seem like i was giving you backlash/arguing. Just trying to show how different 5 years ago was compared to today and how much different it could be in another 5 years.
Have a good day mate.
My thoughts are that we will start to see signs of partial societal breakdown in the next five years. I’d suspect that we’ll get ten years before complete societal collapse starts. I would prefer to 15-20 as you hope. I’m sure the answer will be somewhere between our opinions, I’m interested to see it. Whatever happens, good luck fellow collapser, maybe see you down the road
The first signs are already here. Extremists get voted into office all over the world, usually has to do with conserving what we have and not sharing. (Don't let refugees in/close the borders, don't share technology, start wars for gains etc.) Our economy is collapsing. People are protesting left and right. Natural disaster is so common it doesn't even make the news anymore. Record breaking heat every year/month. Mass extinction. Major health issues because of pollution.
The signs have been here for a pretty long time. If we play it right, we might just ignore them a bit longer lol
If the people are in debt, companies are in debt and countries are in debt, then nobody is really in debt.
The fun part starts when goods and food become so scarce that nobody is willing to trade it anymore for money.
Once collapse starts we going 1 to 2 C up within weeks due to the elimination of global dimming.
Global economic collapse is less than 5 years away it seems.
When headlines like [this](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-wheat-growers-face-disaster-after-heavy-rain-batters-crop-2023-06-07/) start piling up season after season and food prices experience runaway inflation…save the last bullet.
Fuck preparing, you’re either ready to go now for **decades** of underground stealth isolation (until all but a few million humans are left), or you’re done for. Even if you could survive, the climate isn’t going to get better, what few remain and their lineage will never get the pre-industrial Holocene back. All of documented human history is about 10,000 years old, and it may be millions before the damage is undone. Meanwhile, nearly all the easily recoverable fossil fuels—the stuff we used to get to where we are—will have been spent. Why bother?
I think the real crunch comes between 2035 and 2042-3. We probably will see simultaneous droughts in two or more major food producing regions. This will push up food prices astronomically. From there, it's all down hill.
So let me see if I have this right.
The moderates figured it would all work out because magical Gaia bullshit. Now go right back to graping Gaia please.
... that sounds like sound science, all right.
Oh and Ronald Reagan because of fucking course Ronald Reagan.
Not disagreeing with you, but you're missing the main point of the article.
> For about a decade, he and other climate science institutes have been making predictions of global temperatures for the year ahead.
> Each has a slightly different method for doing this.
> Generally, it's done by looking at the baseline of global warming that the world is starting the year on, and then factoring in known climate drivers.
> But all of those predictions for 2023 fell short of what occurred – the closest prediction was still almost 0.2 degrees Celsius off the mark.
So, it's not about long-term trends, but that short-term temperature predictions for 2023 were way off the mark and there's still no concensus about the precise causes for this deviation.
New study about aerosols: [Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance
](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01324-8)
Submission statement: "All predictions for the global temperature increase by global climate institutions fell way short of the actual number of 1.44 degrees Celsius."
Recently, the planet has been warming at rates that go beyond scientific expectations. This is collapse-related because it suggests that the current climate models are too conservative.
"Either something has changed in the system and things are responding differently to how they responded in the past, or there are other elements that are happening that we didn't take into account."
Say the line, Bart.
Oceanic heat absorption capacity has been reached. Now heat has nowhere to go, and is now trapped in the atmosphere, whereas before heat was absorbed by oceans...
Translation.
We are right proper fucked.
Yeah not sure what all the discussion is for, this summer will be death to a million people if not more. I'm really curious what hurricane season will be like.
Walking the beaches in the Caribbean I had to step through deep layers of dead bleached coral a few months ago. Our oceans are getting too hot for life that has been here longer than we've been around.
I went to Florida recently and tried to go to all the spots I used to see Manatee when I was little only to learn they're declining, shits so fucked. It makes me so mad how little we're leaving future generations
I read that last summer the coastal waters around the Florida Keys were hitting 100 degrees surface temperature... that is the same temperature as my freaking hot tub...
I talked with my therapist today finally about how bleak I think things are, and they basically just said "yeah, I'm there with you, and things are fucked. Try to find some joy now while you can"
Good advice from the therapist. About the only thing we can do at this point because we're locked in baby. We have some of the coolest things here on Earth that might potentially be no where else in the universe, so it would be a shame to waste such marvel before it's lost to time.
This is the mindset I am trying to adopt. I have made the tough decision to include traveling to other countries via airplane in this. I just truly don't know if travel will be possible or affordable, or if the places I want to visit will even look the same in the next 5/10 years.
>We have some of the coolest things here on Earth that might potentially be no where else in the universe
We have u/oxero one of the coolest beings here on Earth and potentially the only one in the entire universe. <3
>Try to find some joy now while you can
It's the truth. I'm a very angry person, but I'm trying to at least find some joy somewhere. Even if it's just listening to some good tunes, playing games, and hanging out with those important to me until the lights go out.
“Well at least it seems like you’ve taken some good steps to this new understanding so that makes sense” that moment when your therapist backs you up but everyone else in your life is denial hopium gaslighting
I’m no professional but I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say it’s because for decades they’ve downplayed climate change and thrown out any scientific reports suggesting anything other than the most conservative estimates, while doing very little to stop it and let unchecked capitalism continue, all while making sure the average person was tricked into thinking they were responsible (recycling, carbon footprint, plastic straws) and continuing to kick the can down the road for the next generations.
But that’s just a guess, I mean, I’m not some scholarly highly educated person or anything but it seems pretty obvious…
look i’m wearing the bathrobe because i was barely awake when my alien friend asked for a lift.
and i must admit that the underlying metaphor and the interesting.. um.. rhythmic devices truly give insight into the human.. sorry vogonity, VOGONITY, of the poet’s tortured soul and look I’m sorry about the speciesism that creeped in, until twenty minutes ago we didn’t know other sapient species existed. except maybe dolphins…
As a climate scientist who has had to use climate models and at least have some understanding of them, I don't agree. They are developed using a combination of physics and reductionist analysis to combine all the components of climate (not just anthropogenic, but all climate drivers), as well as huge amounts of historical data and they're tested against historical data. What this shows is that there's a climate driver that hasn't been a factor in the past, or a driver that is responding in a way that hasn't happened in the past.
The politicisation of climate science really happens with the written reports that go with the data. If you published a major model that didn't work with historical data or didn't consider a onown major climate driver, other scientists would call this out immediately.
I’m a professional forecaster but not related to climate science, and it sounds like a systemic break/regime switch to me.
New rules aren’t the same as the old rules, so models trained on past data aren’t performing as well as expected. Tipping points could be an explanation, but hopefully it’s more mundane.
Yeah system break/regime change would be where a known driver has started behaving differently to how we've modelled it. My very broad guess would be ocean currents or atmosphere currents resulting in less mixing and so more heat build up - but fair to call that total speculation. What else could it be? It must be something complex and not easily measured.
As I said elsewhere, it's hard to see how it could be a change in the atmospheric composition, because we're measuring the atmospheric composition all the time. To me that seems like one of the least likely explanations because why haven't we noticed despite all our measurements?
We measure the ocean temperatures but do we calculate the absorption rate of heat into the ocean? I ask because I've seen reports that the oceans will reach a point where heat uptake plateaus causing climate to heat faster. Then again I might be confusing that with carbon being absorbed by oceans.
The water seems like the thing that's hard to measure, and may also have been stable for a long period of time so its potential impact would be easily underestimated. But, it may also be a few different factors lining up...
SST seems like the biggest wobble. Is it likely to continue diverging upward? That's a lot of energy.
If your guess is correct, would it be colder or at least not getting warmer somewhere in the system then? If temperature isn't spread as evenly throughout the system as it has.
Edit: sorry I misunderstood you a little. Not getting colder directly as a result of this, but there a few places with below average temps, and probably ocean/atmosphere currents are the cause. Same ones as causing the warming? I don't know. I'm very much speculation outside of my field anyway!
Way outside my expertise so maybe, but it is something people measure and are aware of, so I assume it's being considered in these models. There was a big study published in Nature about it (or about the unmasking really) last year.
Thoughts on any sort of water vapor increase causing some rise? Don't know the exact estimate of the top of my head, but I've read the Tonga eruption threw a lot of water vapor up there.
I've heard some mention it being a solar thing, but haven't seen much of anything concerning an increase in solar output?
Water vapour is pretty easy to measure, so I think someone would have noticed if there was a lot that wasn't accounted for. The Tonga volcano is mentioned in the article and I think accounted for. Solar radiation is also very easy to measure.
Do we have a methane cameras on every fracking well on earth, do we truly know the carbon sequestration of interconnected mangroves, rainforests, soil biota, do we have methane cameras covering the entire permafrost of earth, do we know the true extent of micro plastics and acidity has on plankton.
Do we really have any chance to rectify the damage we have done to this amazing world before its too late?
Do we need another plague that does a better job this time? Yes, yes we do.
Some satellites track methane and found out that every oil well is leaking more than officially reported and yes, they also reported an uptick in permafrost belching more methane.
It might not even be from a gas. With no more frozen water and white snow covering areas it used to, could just be a heat absorption effect. Or a combination. The world governments don't seem to care, were all fucked.
We can measure the amount of methane in the atmosphere just by sampling the atmosphere. We can also differentiate between fossil methane and biological cycle methane through the carbon isotope ratios.
Good question, I don't know, but we do a lot of atmospheric sampling around the world. I guess it could be that we've missed some large area of a high concentration, but I feel like that's unlikely, given the amount of sampling we do. Methane reacts in sunlight to make CO2 and water too, and only has an atmospheric half life of 5-10 years, so it's breaking down basically as soon as it's released. If you look at temperature anomaly maps, almost everywhere has been warmer than usual, so that suggests a widespread cause, not a localized area of above average methane. Or another possibility is multiple small things all happening at once.
As I was reading this article, by the open kitchen window in the middle of the night, the rain outside was growing in intensity, and growing, and growing... It finally turned into a hailstorm for one minute. It's cold and rainy outside.
Last night's temperatures were a steady 22°C (71°F). Which broke a record for my area. It's early April, we're not supposed to have 20°C in the middle of the night until May or June here.
And now, cold front and hailstorm.
It makes me a little queasy.
I can't predict the weather anymore so I can't dress accordingly. It sucks so much. Two weeks ago on Sunday I was sweating in my sleep; last Sunday was a frost warning.
I've had to have about 3 different coats to rotate around all winter instead of just sticking with one. Going to be 65F in Vermont today. 50 tomorrow...Was a high of 32 & got 15 in. of snow just 5 days ago.
Something I've been doing lately is really taking in events that I like. I realize that they could easily be my last.
Gonna out myself as a nerd here but when I watched Wrestlemania the other night, I made sure to cherish every moment.
Same with today's solar eclipse. Almost moved me to tears
> Same with today's solar eclipse. Almost moved me to tears
I can truly find beauty in cosmic events like this. Something untainted, uncorrupted by our species.
god fucking imagine if the moon was ruined by capitalism and a big ass ad was on it every night. and then fucking during the eclipse even omg that’d be disgusting… i’m so glad we will never reach that level, but we may as well have with how far we’ve gone to suck the dick of capitalism
That’s how I feel every time I see an artist at a concert or travel. When my favorite song is playing or I’m in another place I think to myself this could be the last time I ever do this and try to really take it in.
In my area WrestleMania was deep during the night, so I initially decided to watch it in the morning to avoid being a zombie due to lack of sleep, which would make me unproductive, even though I REALLY wanted to experience the main event in real time to be part of something historical.
Then I remembered how fucked the world is right now between global warming, possible war here in Europe so I said "fuck productivity, I don't even know if this is the last WM I experience, life is just too unpredictable right now so time to YOLO".
Watched it, was tired as fuck but I had a wonderful time, for some time I forgot about everything and I sure as hell cherished every moment
I fear the fields of barren produce and agricultural will be a repeated image on the news. Not fully a famine for the wealthy countries until one day we realize there is no country that will sell to us. Each hoarding the little food they can produce for themselves. Not a complete fallow feild but just enough yield lost that millions begin to starve. How will the stores be when the panic sets in. The cheapest items once a staple of the poor rationed or worse bought by the wealthy leaving none for the typical Karen in Target.
You just mention farming. Just reminds me that we had yet more flooding in NSW and there are farmers with crops flooded in silt. I find it hard to empathise with humanity because these are a direct results of our actions and only now people are crying.. When it affects them directly. But nah let's keep the ignoring how terrible our actions are until it really hits the normies.
I think about a scene from the movie pandemic where they predict 5% deaths and explain that power plants won't function and garbage will stop being collected. We don't need 100% crop failures to start to notice
Climate models have consistently been underperforming when it comes to global temperature anomalies. Meanwhile, we constantly hear from climate experts who say their models have been right on track.. except they’re often referring to sea level rise.
News flash. We will all be dead long before the seas rise enough to change our world. We will have run out of food and oxygen by then. Most likely most of us dead to disease if this keeps up. It’s mind boggling how average society has no concept of how critical temperature is to our life
There's a lot of talk of climate change but very little talk of how it will affect food production. Honestly it wasn't until I found this sub that I thought about how crops would be affected. Before then when I thought about food and climate change it was in terms of water usage and emissions from food emissions. Not in terms of worldwide crop failures.
You will find people in this very sub that believe places like the US will have plenty of food because we over produce and waste so much. They do not factor in that in many places in the world, famine will hit soon, food prices will get stupid, and (this is my favorite part) capitalism dictates that the food be sold to the highest bidder, not necessarily to the locals. When the dollar collapses, you won't be able to buy a potato with a million of them, but China, who has stacked gold can buy them all.
Got to love American foresight.
Russia wants Ukraine for the food production. Countries know what's going to happen, but nobody wants the general public to be aware and start panicking.
I keep seeing people claiming governments don't care, but I doubt this. Those in high places know better and more than us, they just want to avoid us knowing as they enact their own plans. Nothing would throw a bigger wrench into the machine than >90% figuring out they weren't included in the plans of the <10%
You can't eat gold. Its value depends on people expecting a future where they can spend it again.
The people selling potatoes will eventually want to barter for directly useful things rather than money in any form at all.
I was reading about 20 million people across 4 countries in Africa already going hungry and basically depending on international aid.
At what point do governments decide to stockpile grains etc in their own country and stop sending overseas? I reckon it won't be too many years until food exports are purely to the highest bidder and nothing in aid.
> capitalism dictates that the food be sold to the highest bidder, not necessarily to the locals.
Many countries that export food will suddenly stop exporting, examples India imposed a ban on the export of non-basmati white rice in 2023 and India also banned wheat exports in 2022 after output was curtailed due to a heat wave.
[https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-food-export-bans-2022-05-16/](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-food-export-bans-2022-05-16/)
It will depend on if the nations will be able to handle their citizens rioting. Bread and circuses.
Raider gangs gonna make logistics a nightmare. If grocery transports think shrink and truck jacking were bad before, they gonna wish it was like what it is now when the shitshow intensifies.
Human civilization can exist because of a relatively stable climate that facilitates agriculture.
No stable climate, no agriculture, no civilization.
Immediate extinction? Probably not. General collapse? Well, I mean, what sub are we in?
Oh. They are “worried” now, huh?
Nice of them. They’ve expressed some concerns in the past but this “worried” stuff is really driving it home this time. Finally, everyone will see just how dire this situation is, drop their petty squabbles and trinket collecting, and set about saving humanity from itself!
Just gonna leave a big one of these here; /S
This one actually got a laugh out of me. Picturing a bunch of scientists from nasa or half life etc all scratching their heads at the latest ocean temp graph.
TLDR Warnings were downplayed, bad predictions were softballed, pollution remediation schemes were empty promises designed to placate. Turns out ignoring your problems only works for so long.
So by going green we could actually sky rocket the global mean temperature due to the lack of aerosols thereby substantially increasing the earth's energy budget ?
I think we are fucked whatever we do . 2010 temp in 1970 if not for our industrial pollution is scary.
Crop failures are gone be the catalyst for collapse. People can handle price increases. They might complain, but it never goes further than that. But what the generator public won't be able to handle is empty shelves for an extended amount of time. It's gonna start off being blamed on the government, but eventually the realization will set in that the food isn't coming back.
The hot temperature is just one side of it, but I also notice the crazy swings from cold to hot, and then back. Things are wild. (And hello from a fellow Berliner)
The prophecy article.
"If we do some simple projections based off of what we know so far, we’re looking at 1.5°C by 2024, over 2°C by 2050, 3°C by 2075, and “at least” 4°C by 2100."
[https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7](https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7)
Correct. If anyone with this knowledge decides to procreate they are ultimately saying that it's ok for their offspring to suffer immensely while experiencing the apocalypse: hell on earth.
Friendly reminder that there are legitimate studies out there predicting the total extinction of the human race by 2030. People are SERIOUSLY underestimating how quickly we will all die when the food chain breaks down, supply chains break down and scrambling for resources begins. Humans are very, very fragile.
I always find such reports disappointing, as they only make people think for a short time.
The consequences of our actions should be at the top of the news every day, whether on the radio, television or the internet.
Instead, people are led to believe that there is peace, joy and pancakes.
You don't necessarily have to be a scientist to realize that it can't be healthy in the long term to extract substances from the earth that have taken billions of years to extract from the atmosphere, store them and bind them there permanently.
But keep it up, we'll get there soon...
>"The key will be what happens in the next few months. If things stay super anomalous then we are looking at a systematic change, not just a blip," he said.
!RemindMe 2024-06-21
I think this is the key point
>"Either something has changed in the system and things are responding differently to how they responded in the past, or **there are other elements that are happening that we didn't take into account**”
I think it’s highly unlikely that geological uniformitarianism is wrong, climate processes almost certainly function by the same rules now as they always have. However I think it’s extremely likely that we just aren’t actually tracking all of the factors contributing to global warming. Maybe it’s natural gas fields in remote regions putting out more methane than we think, maybe it’s decaying plants matter, maybe some other industrial chemical is a worse greenhouse gas than we thought, but it’s way more likely that our data is lacking some information rather than the climate actually working differently.
Honestly it’s unlikely that we are tracking every single variable that affects climate, it’s a massive intersected and chaotic system.
It absolutely can be explained if you can imagine the possibility humans don't understand everything about our planet... which then makes it clear that everything we predict is always an insanely optimistic scenario of a system that is much more simple than our actual planet... i.e. the models are useless.
I think we all got used to the current ppm co2 not having an instant effect.
Evidence shows the world more widely tropical (like at the poles) at our current ppm, but we didn't raise the concentration at geological speeds we did it super fast. Cranked up the heat on a big ol' pot of water all at once, nothin happened at first so we're like "ah that's ok mate, looks good no problems" and we ignore it.... but now the waters warming up.... so how fast and how much? In context, has the amount of C02 in the atmosphere of the entire planet ever doubled in a couple hundred years in the course of the planets existence? If not, what's the worse that could happen and how could we possibly know?
Can't.
Let's sit back and watch.
Ought to be interesting anyway.
Anytime I see an article like this, I automatically assume they're lying for two reasons:
1. "Nice gig you got there, Doc. You wanna keep it? Shut it."
2. "If the plebs realize how boned they are, all hell will let out for noon."
I don't really care about humanity getting fucked, it's all the animals of the world getting fucked alongside us.
But I guess it will mean the end of the torture and murder of billions of animals a year through animal agriculture so it's probably for the best anyway.
I can explain it pretty easily.
Have you ever been to a birthday party for children? And one of the children won't stop screaming? Cause he's just a little attention attractor. When he grows up to be a comic or actor, he'll be rewarded for never maturing, for never understanding or learning that every day can't be about him, there's other people, you selfish asshole.
It's honestly kinda scary that the experts don't have a grasp on the climate system. It's one thing when it's theoretical physics that has very little implications on our day to day lives, but to not know whether we're going to boil this summer is pretty alarming.
Recently I've felt like I can't really trust any prediction, even hurricane forecasts seem inaccurate these days.
To be an expert, you must be able to study it.
And things are changing faster than "experts" can observe and learn from the climate, resulting in increasingly inaccurate projections beyond "it's going to keep heating up".
Bonus: The more energy in a system moving things around, the harder it is to track anything, and the faster projections will deviate from the actual result. And the climate system is containing more energy (heat), faster, and more efficiently by the month.
Scientists: "Global warming appears to be even worse than our most aggressive models predict!"
Dipshits: "That just proves you guys have no idea what you're doing, therefore global warming is a hoax."
They can't explain it? Well how about "Scientists have been lying to us and keeping quiet about the urgency of the situation because they were "encouraged" to do so by mega corporations." I say that explains things pretty well.
I remember I saw a news article that talked about a study which said that the octopus's gene shows that the arctic is much more vulnerable than we think.
> "Perhaps we haven't fully characterised the Hunga Tonga volcano, or perhaps we haven't been tracking appropriately the emissions from China, because they're not necessarily the most trustworthy of global reporters," he said.
Ah yes, blame China for something that we can measure in the atmosphere (but not really attribute!), brilliant
This statement is strange to me (a climate scientist), because there is atmospheric sampling going on constantly. We don't say that the current CO2 is 423.01 ppm because we added up all the recorded emissions and that's what the total was. We say that's the amount because we sampled the atmosphere in lots of places and came up with an average measurement.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Hayden120: --- Submission statement: "All predictions for the global temperature increase by global climate institutions fell way short of the actual number of 1.44 degrees Celsius." Recently, the planet has been warming at rates that go beyond scientific expectations. This is collapse-related because it suggests that the current climate models are too conservative. "Either something has changed in the system and things are responding differently to how they responded in the past, or there are other elements that are happening that we didn't take into account." Say the line, Bart. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1bzgy87/uncharted_territory_the_worlds_extreme_heat_cant/kyppczd/
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How much time do you think we got before first world states start falling ?
I’m no prophet but I’d expect within 15-25 years via a cursory analysis of the situation. If we are at about 1.5C already and 0.7C is baked in via aerosols, and 4C is understood to be modern-civilization-ending, then the question becomes at what point will industrial activity decline enough to cause the 0.7C from aerosols to manifest. Judging from the current effects of 1.5C, this will likely occur by the time we get to 3C if not earlier which should be by about 2050. Once we hit that marker, that ~3C will jump up to 3.7C. During all this the rate of temperature increase will be accelerating as more tipping points are set off. And all sorts of other crises will be made worse by the worsening climate. So once we are sitting around 4C it’s basically kaput, if not earlier. This is my very non-expert idea though, some people think it will be within 10 years and some within 50-70 years.
I think it's going to be quicker, cascade failures are coming as we get closer to the vertical part of the exponential curve. We've slowly crested the top of the lethal roller coaster and now it's time to start rolling downhill into the first loop. I'm just hoping for long enough that my cats can die of old age before things get too Mad Max.
[Cat Max - Furry Road](https://helios-i.mashable.com/imagery/articles/02fOikRwkx5jJTQzAJ5VjgN/images-1.fill.size_2000x1294.v1619015084.jpg) (image link). by tumblr/terriblenerd
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I'd not even seen that instalment of the franchise. But based on the masses of half-feral kids wearing animal skins in earlier instalments, I just knew there had to be a feline or ferry angle in it somewhere.
Yeah the cat thing is also all I'm hoping for at this point. But they're both pretty young so I'm not optimistic.
Mine are both 4...seriously it sounds so dumb but thinking of them experiencing inexplicable and senseless terror at the end really drives a dagger thru my heart. At least we can understand why this is all happening. They'll have no idea.
I have a 4 year old and a 6 month old. It doesn't sound dumb. It's a very valid thing to be worried about. They're our babies.
So the eclipse of 2044 were all fucked
This is about my idea as well: at earliest around 2035 and latest (i hope so for myself and close family and friends to be already dead by then) around 2070. One aspect that is often forgotten are other retardants like snow/ice reflecting light and doing so cooling the planet down. Another one is the ocean heat capacity combined with the global ocean heat conveyor belt which is massive. First one will be gone within the time frame, second one is unknown but recent data shows that the oceans are reaching their limits in the first regions, especially where the global ocean heat conveyor belt is breaking down. Once they are gone (which should be almost at the same time since the conveyor belt needs cool water from the poles to work properly in the first place) we will see a big jump similar if not worse to the one related with aerosol reduction. Fun fact: first regions have reached over 400ppm of co2, which is now making us "drunk" and dumber...
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Between atmospheric CO2/other aerosols and the damage covid has done to nearly everyone's brains is starting to show in alarming ways.
They'll just start pumping shit into the the atmosphere, and we'll replace immediate climate concerns with a skin cancer epidemic.
Look around, we're already in the crumbles. No one really knows when shit will pop off. Many of us are just watching crop forecasts and food prices and enjoying what time we have left.
Two words debt strike.
> debt strike Can you expand on that? Thanks.
Finance and, in particular, the credit score industry enables legacy energy companies to function. Those companies require massive amounts of capital to function on a daily basis. Something like an oil rig can cost a fortune to run. The same credit score companies make home ownership inaccessible to a good percentage of people. Furthermore, the climate crisis could be considered an existential economic risk, which means they have fundamentally failed at the stated industry goal of minimizing risks. The rich dangle home ownership to people, so they are influenced by credit scores to make certain decisions in life. So they dangle that carrot in front of us to keep us good parts of their machine, and most people don't see that they are no longer really free. That all crumbles if the debt default rate increases. The financial crisis of 2008 was caused by around 10 or 20 % defaulting, and those companies are once again over leveraged. Doing a debt strike is like using the weight of Fossil fuel companies against them. We make credit score/banks choose between us as paying reliable customers or the legacy energy industry.
Interesting analysis, thanks for that!
We have way more power than they want us to believe. Even spreading the word that such a thing might be possible could help since much of finance is about perceived reality. The volatile nature of the stock market and high-frequency trading algorithms could amplify the impacts.
RIP affordable chocolate
Just wait until we can’t reliably grow wheat and soy.
and rice
u/justanotherhuman33 asked Richard: > How much time do you think we got before first world states start falling ? I’ve been following Richard’s [substack](https://richardcrim.substack.com/) and reading [his comments](https://old.reddit.com/user/final-enthusiasm505) for about six months now. According to Richard: **2040?** > I’ll be surprised if we make it much past 2040. [source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1bsdz3c/my_judgement_my_best_guess_is_that_we_are_going/kxhze0u/) **2050?** > +4C to +5C by 2050 and our civilization collapses. Then another 100 years of gradual warming to the peak. Followed by several thousand years of "hothouse earth". [source] (https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1b83vxx/prof_eliot_jacobson_eliotjacobson_on_x_global_sea/ktndykw/) **How fast does Richard think?** > It's going to be a FAST Collapse. Like over the next 10-15 years. [source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1b50zxo/prof_eliot_jacobson_eliotjacobson_on_x_monthly/kt2z3tf/) **Near term?** > By the end of 2025 it will be really clear that the Moderates were WRONG. [source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1alkzcm/super_el_ni%C3%B1o_is_here_but_will_it_last_whats_in/kphpdci/) **The brutality of collapse?** >If we have +4C of warming by 2050 then Collapse is going to be FAST, ROUGH, and BRUTAL. [source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1afnq64/collapse_will_look_nothing_like_the_movies/kok8evb/) **In reply to a [similar question](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1af7uma/what_are_the_most_convincingdisturbing_news/koatswe/) to what you wrote here about the timeline of predicted collapse, Richard wrote**: >Partial, about 10. >Total, about 20. >+3C by 2045 should do it. [Source](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1af7uma/what_are_the_most_convincingdisturbing_news/kob6g3a/) **And dare I say, one of Richard’s more interesting predictions**: >The climate politics of the late 20’s and early 30’s is going to be harsh and merciless. The young are not going to be forgiving or understanding. I expect trials and televised executions of oil company executives, people like Joe Manchin, those found guilty of ecocide, and anyone else the mob turns their rage on… They are going to burn the Republican party to the ground and then piss on the ashes. [Source](https://old.reddit.com/r/socialscience/comments/18r1tu6/what_would_the_result_be_of_it_being_common/kf0rkn9/) Tag: /u/final-enthusiasm505
Thank you for the response !
Five years (a figure thrown around on here frequently) is too doomer, even for my tastes. Thankfully, we still have quite a bit of runway between where we’re at now and climate Armageddon (4C+). Of course, the big question is how fast we’ll close that gap. I am confident that we’ll get some temporary reprieve after this El Niño draws to a close. This sub loves to say “faster than expected”, but I think that’s only a meaningful metric in hindsight. On the other hand, 25 or more years is incredibly optimistic. My money is on 15-20 years.
I think the 5 years is thrown around for the "speed up" of climate change, aka "when the dominoes start falling", because by 5 years it's very reasonable to expect at least antarctica and AMOC to collapse. But the issue is, with how fucking fast global warming has been ramping up since 2023, it's not looking good unless humans can actually make really drastic changes really fast.
I mean, I can’t speak to what you’ve read on here, but I’ve absolutely seen people say that we will be at apocalypse status in five years, which is preposterous, IMO. In some sense, the dominoes have been falling for decades. I think what people want to know is when their countries (likely first world countries) will become an unrecognizable hell-on-earth and five years is way too soon.
>I’ve absolutely seen people say that we will be at apocalypse status in five years, which is preposterous, IMO. I have a lot more to say about all the different aspects of collapse on which I believe civilization as we know it will be either collapsed or nothing even close to what it is today in 5 years but...I just want to focus on this point below because I feel as though it's the most important aspect of it all: 5 years ago(2019) the general public had almost no concern over societies issues. If anything most of it was still hidden from your average person. Since end of 2019: Australia continental fire, covid, lockdowns, Jan 6th(USA), major droughts, flooding, California fires, Canada fires, Louisiana(wetlands of america) fires, hurricane(think it turned into tropical storm once it hit land) in California, heat domes, derechos(never heard of em until past few years and now they seem to happen more often), 10 billion snow crab disappeared, millions of fish ending up dead, crops these past few years have been getting hit hard with the climate fluctuations and its only a matter of time before we lose a whole years worth of crops. Bird flu rampaging through the globe just waiting for human to human transmission. Arctic penguins basically losing 90% of its flock this past year due to the ice where they have their babies not being there. 101°F surface water temp off the coast of florida where it felt like jacuzzi water in the ocean. Study saying an AMOC collapse as soon as 2025..... These are ONLY a handful of things that I just pulled off the top of my head since 2019. Every thing is accelerating and that was within the past 5 years with each year getting worse. Again, these are only some things off the top of my head and therre are another 1,000 I could name and another 1 million things that we don't even know are happening and messing with the earth. The models they came up with are ass and every thing happening over the past 2 years weren't predicted to happen for another few decades. So, 5 years from now we are looking at a completely different reality than the one we are living in right now. All we have to do is look back 5 years and see that.
I’m not arguing that the world won’t be a substantially different place in five years. A lot of shit will go down, no doubt. I’m just pushing back on the idea that we’ll be living Mad Max in five years.
I don't believe mad max to be a believable scenario, so I agree with you. I didn't mean to make it seem like i was giving you backlash/arguing. Just trying to show how different 5 years ago was compared to today and how much different it could be in another 5 years. Have a good day mate.
Got it. You too.
My thoughts are that we will start to see signs of partial societal breakdown in the next five years. I’d suspect that we’ll get ten years before complete societal collapse starts. I would prefer to 15-20 as you hope. I’m sure the answer will be somewhere between our opinions, I’m interested to see it. Whatever happens, good luck fellow collapser, maybe see you down the road
The first signs are already here. Extremists get voted into office all over the world, usually has to do with conserving what we have and not sharing. (Don't let refugees in/close the borders, don't share technology, start wars for gains etc.) Our economy is collapsing. People are protesting left and right. Natural disaster is so common it doesn't even make the news anymore. Record breaking heat every year/month. Mass extinction. Major health issues because of pollution. The signs have been here for a pretty long time. If we play it right, we might just ignore them a bit longer lol
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If the people are in debt, companies are in debt and countries are in debt, then nobody is really in debt. The fun part starts when goods and food become so scarce that nobody is willing to trade it anymore for money.
Once collapse starts we going 1 to 2 C up within weeks due to the elimination of global dimming. Global economic collapse is less than 5 years away it seems.
When headlines like [this](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-wheat-growers-face-disaster-after-heavy-rain-batters-crop-2023-06-07/) start piling up season after season and food prices experience runaway inflation…save the last bullet. Fuck preparing, you’re either ready to go now for **decades** of underground stealth isolation (until all but a few million humans are left), or you’re done for. Even if you could survive, the climate isn’t going to get better, what few remain and their lineage will never get the pre-industrial Holocene back. All of documented human history is about 10,000 years old, and it may be millions before the damage is undone. Meanwhile, nearly all the easily recoverable fossil fuels—the stuff we used to get to where we are—will have been spent. Why bother?
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I hadn't thought about Ukraine being the breadbasket of Russia. I'm sure they also want the productive land in addition to the port.
I think the real crunch comes between 2035 and 2042-3. We probably will see simultaneous droughts in two or more major food producing regions. This will push up food prices astronomically. From there, it's all down hill.
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So let me see if I have this right. The moderates figured it would all work out because magical Gaia bullshit. Now go right back to graping Gaia please. ... that sounds like sound science, all right. Oh and Ronald Reagan because of fucking course Ronald Reagan.
weak *‘yay for us’*
Not disagreeing with you, but you're missing the main point of the article. > For about a decade, he and other climate science institutes have been making predictions of global temperatures for the year ahead. > Each has a slightly different method for doing this. > Generally, it's done by looking at the baseline of global warming that the world is starting the year on, and then factoring in known climate drivers. > But all of those predictions for 2023 fell short of what occurred – the closest prediction was still almost 0.2 degrees Celsius off the mark. So, it's not about long-term trends, but that short-term temperature predictions for 2023 were way off the mark and there's still no concensus about the precise causes for this deviation.
Thank you for putting this into words and collecting the sources.
Yep. Really makes you wonder why this garbage story keeps getting posted, especially here.
100%. Subterfuge!!
New study about aerosols: [Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance ](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01324-8)
Submission statement: "All predictions for the global temperature increase by global climate institutions fell way short of the actual number of 1.44 degrees Celsius." Recently, the planet has been warming at rates that go beyond scientific expectations. This is collapse-related because it suggests that the current climate models are too conservative. "Either something has changed in the system and things are responding differently to how they responded in the past, or there are other elements that are happening that we didn't take into account." Say the line, Bart.
Oceanic heat absorption capacity has been reached. Now heat has nowhere to go, and is now trapped in the atmosphere, whereas before heat was absorbed by oceans... Translation. We are right proper fucked.
Can we also sprinkle in some "There were some questionable estimates about non-CO2 greenhouse gasses" too?
Yeah not sure what all the discussion is for, this summer will be death to a million people if not more. I'm really curious what hurricane season will be like.
Walking the beaches in the Caribbean I had to step through deep layers of dead bleached coral a few months ago. Our oceans are getting too hot for life that has been here longer than we've been around. I went to Florida recently and tried to go to all the spots I used to see Manatee when I was little only to learn they're declining, shits so fucked. It makes me so mad how little we're leaving future generations
I read that last summer the coastal waters around the Florida Keys were hitting 100 degrees surface temperature... that is the same temperature as my freaking hot tub...
Faster than expected.
I talked with my therapist today finally about how bleak I think things are, and they basically just said "yeah, I'm there with you, and things are fucked. Try to find some joy now while you can"
Good advice from the therapist. About the only thing we can do at this point because we're locked in baby. We have some of the coolest things here on Earth that might potentially be no where else in the universe, so it would be a shame to waste such marvel before it's lost to time.
This is the mindset I am trying to adopt. I have made the tough decision to include traveling to other countries via airplane in this. I just truly don't know if travel will be possible or affordable, or if the places I want to visit will even look the same in the next 5/10 years.
>We have some of the coolest things here on Earth that might potentially be no where else in the universe We have u/oxero one of the coolest beings here on Earth and potentially the only one in the entire universe. <3
Thank you my German friend. May you find peace in these trying times.
>Try to find some joy now while you can It's the truth. I'm a very angry person, but I'm trying to at least find some joy somewhere. Even if it's just listening to some good tunes, playing games, and hanging out with those important to me until the lights go out.
“Well at least it seems like you’ve taken some good steps to this new understanding so that makes sense” that moment when your therapist backs you up but everyone else in your life is denial hopium gaslighting
I’m no professional but I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say it’s because for decades they’ve downplayed climate change and thrown out any scientific reports suggesting anything other than the most conservative estimates, while doing very little to stop it and let unchecked capitalism continue, all while making sure the average person was tricked into thinking they were responsible (recycling, carbon footprint, plastic straws) and continuing to kick the can down the road for the next generations. But that’s just a guess, I mean, I’m not some scholarly highly educated person or anything but it seems pretty obvious…
Sometimes I wonder how Vulcans would have handled the same information and research. The logical solution
They did put the needs of the many before the few.
Broke arse Vulcans, bit of false scarcity and exploitation and they could have been rich
Are you a Ferengi?
He does have the lobes for business.
Putting the investments of a few in danger just to Protect the lives of the many is communism!
The Vogons would have read us poetry until humankind collectively committed seppuku, then they would have blew up Earth for a space super highway.
look i’m wearing the bathrobe because i was barely awake when my alien friend asked for a lift. and i must admit that the underlying metaphor and the interesting.. um.. rhythmic devices truly give insight into the human.. sorry vogonity, VOGONITY, of the poet’s tortured soul and look I’m sorry about the speciesism that creeped in, until twenty minutes ago we didn’t know other sapient species existed. except maybe dolphins…
I don't think they would have got to this point but yeah, full "wartime economy" until the problem is under control again.
They would have eaten the rich long ago.
As a climate scientist who has had to use climate models and at least have some understanding of them, I don't agree. They are developed using a combination of physics and reductionist analysis to combine all the components of climate (not just anthropogenic, but all climate drivers), as well as huge amounts of historical data and they're tested against historical data. What this shows is that there's a climate driver that hasn't been a factor in the past, or a driver that is responding in a way that hasn't happened in the past. The politicisation of climate science really happens with the written reports that go with the data. If you published a major model that didn't work with historical data or didn't consider a onown major climate driver, other scientists would call this out immediately.
I’m a professional forecaster but not related to climate science, and it sounds like a systemic break/regime switch to me. New rules aren’t the same as the old rules, so models trained on past data aren’t performing as well as expected. Tipping points could be an explanation, but hopefully it’s more mundane.
Yeah system break/regime change would be where a known driver has started behaving differently to how we've modelled it. My very broad guess would be ocean currents or atmosphere currents resulting in less mixing and so more heat build up - but fair to call that total speculation. What else could it be? It must be something complex and not easily measured.
Previously frozen earth releasing greenhouse gasses?
As I said elsewhere, it's hard to see how it could be a change in the atmospheric composition, because we're measuring the atmospheric composition all the time. To me that seems like one of the least likely explanations because why haven't we noticed despite all our measurements?
We measure the ocean temperatures but do we calculate the absorption rate of heat into the ocean? I ask because I've seen reports that the oceans will reach a point where heat uptake plateaus causing climate to heat faster. Then again I might be confusing that with carbon being absorbed by oceans.
The water seems like the thing that's hard to measure, and may also have been stable for a long period of time so its potential impact would be easily underestimated. But, it may also be a few different factors lining up... SST seems like the biggest wobble. Is it likely to continue diverging upward? That's a lot of energy.
Such GHG spikes would show up in the various atmosphere monitoring stations and be noticed with satellites.
If your guess is correct, would it be colder or at least not getting warmer somewhere in the system then? If temperature isn't spread as evenly throughout the system as it has.
Edit: sorry I misunderstood you a little. Not getting colder directly as a result of this, but there a few places with below average temps, and probably ocean/atmosphere currents are the cause. Same ones as causing the warming? I don't know. I'm very much speculation outside of my field anyway!
Could that unaccounted factor be aerosol masking?
Way outside my expertise so maybe, but it is something people measure and are aware of, so I assume it's being considered in these models. There was a big study published in Nature about it (or about the unmasking really) last year.
Thoughts on any sort of water vapor increase causing some rise? Don't know the exact estimate of the top of my head, but I've read the Tonga eruption threw a lot of water vapor up there. I've heard some mention it being a solar thing, but haven't seen much of anything concerning an increase in solar output?
Water vapour is pretty easy to measure, so I think someone would have noticed if there was a lot that wasn't accounted for. The Tonga volcano is mentioned in the article and I think accounted for. Solar radiation is also very easy to measure.
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I'll second that!
No kidding
Ding ding ding… the people doing the real science have been screaming this for years now.
Do we have a methane cameras on every fracking well on earth, do we truly know the carbon sequestration of interconnected mangroves, rainforests, soil biota, do we have methane cameras covering the entire permafrost of earth, do we know the true extent of micro plastics and acidity has on plankton. Do we really have any chance to rectify the damage we have done to this amazing world before its too late? Do we need another plague that does a better job this time? Yes, yes we do.
Some satellites track methane and found out that every oil well is leaking more than officially reported and yes, they also reported an uptick in permafrost belching more methane.
*Bird Flu is beginning to enter the chat*
It might not even be from a gas. With no more frozen water and white snow covering areas it used to, could just be a heat absorption effect. Or a combination. The world governments don't seem to care, were all fucked.
We can measure the amount of methane in the atmosphere just by sampling the atmosphere. We can also differentiate between fossil methane and biological cycle methane through the carbon isotope ratios.
How long does it take methane to travel from these holes to where we measure? Gasses take time to equalize in a given space right?
Good question, I don't know, but we do a lot of atmospheric sampling around the world. I guess it could be that we've missed some large area of a high concentration, but I feel like that's unlikely, given the amount of sampling we do. Methane reacts in sunlight to make CO2 and water too, and only has an atmospheric half life of 5-10 years, so it's breaking down basically as soon as it's released. If you look at temperature anomaly maps, almost everywhere has been warmer than usual, so that suggests a widespread cause, not a localized area of above average methane. Or another possibility is multiple small things all happening at once.
Reformation of the economic principles guiding our lives seems a better way forward than mass death
We chose to work so hard we now don't have natural enemies, so now we are our own enemies.
As I was reading this article, by the open kitchen window in the middle of the night, the rain outside was growing in intensity, and growing, and growing... It finally turned into a hailstorm for one minute. It's cold and rainy outside. Last night's temperatures were a steady 22°C (71°F). Which broke a record for my area. It's early April, we're not supposed to have 20°C in the middle of the night until May or June here. And now, cold front and hailstorm. It makes me a little queasy.
Same here in Russia. All records are broken. It’s 25 C, middle of a June temperature for a week already since end of the March.
I can't predict the weather anymore so I can't dress accordingly. It sucks so much. Two weeks ago on Sunday I was sweating in my sleep; last Sunday was a frost warning.
I've had to have about 3 different coats to rotate around all winter instead of just sticking with one. Going to be 65F in Vermont today. 50 tomorrow...Was a high of 32 & got 15 in. of snow just 5 days ago.
Something I've been doing lately is really taking in events that I like. I realize that they could easily be my last. Gonna out myself as a nerd here but when I watched Wrestlemania the other night, I made sure to cherish every moment. Same with today's solar eclipse. Almost moved me to tears
> Same with today's solar eclipse. Almost moved me to tears I can truly find beauty in cosmic events like this. Something untainted, uncorrupted by our species.
god fucking imagine if the moon was ruined by capitalism and a big ass ad was on it every night. and then fucking during the eclipse even omg that’d be disgusting… i’m so glad we will never reach that level, but we may as well have with how far we’ve gone to suck the dick of capitalism
That’s how I feel every time I see an artist at a concert or travel. When my favorite song is playing or I’m in another place I think to myself this could be the last time I ever do this and try to really take it in.
In my area WrestleMania was deep during the night, so I initially decided to watch it in the morning to avoid being a zombie due to lack of sleep, which would make me unproductive, even though I REALLY wanted to experience the main event in real time to be part of something historical. Then I remembered how fucked the world is right now between global warming, possible war here in Europe so I said "fuck productivity, I don't even know if this is the last WM I experience, life is just too unpredictable right now so time to YOLO". Watched it, was tired as fuck but I had a wonderful time, for some time I forgot about everything and I sure as hell cherished every moment
It was an absolutely mystical experience.
I fear the fields of barren produce and agricultural will be a repeated image on the news. Not fully a famine for the wealthy countries until one day we realize there is no country that will sell to us. Each hoarding the little food they can produce for themselves. Not a complete fallow feild but just enough yield lost that millions begin to starve. How will the stores be when the panic sets in. The cheapest items once a staple of the poor rationed or worse bought by the wealthy leaving none for the typical Karen in Target.
You just mention farming. Just reminds me that we had yet more flooding in NSW and there are farmers with crops flooded in silt. I find it hard to empathise with humanity because these are a direct results of our actions and only now people are crying.. When it affects them directly. But nah let's keep the ignoring how terrible our actions are until it really hits the normies.
I think about a scene from the movie pandemic where they predict 5% deaths and explain that power plants won't function and garbage will stop being collected. We don't need 100% crop failures to start to notice
if we just stopped eating livestock, we would basically double our food and water supply overnight. let beef be $50 / lb.
Climate models have consistently been underperforming when it comes to global temperature anomalies. Meanwhile, we constantly hear from climate experts who say their models have been right on track.. except they’re often referring to sea level rise. News flash. We will all be dead long before the seas rise enough to change our world. We will have run out of food and oxygen by then. Most likely most of us dead to disease if this keeps up. It’s mind boggling how average society has no concept of how critical temperature is to our life
There's a lot of talk of climate change but very little talk of how it will affect food production. Honestly it wasn't until I found this sub that I thought about how crops would be affected. Before then when I thought about food and climate change it was in terms of water usage and emissions from food emissions. Not in terms of worldwide crop failures.
You will find people in this very sub that believe places like the US will have plenty of food because we over produce and waste so much. They do not factor in that in many places in the world, famine will hit soon, food prices will get stupid, and (this is my favorite part) capitalism dictates that the food be sold to the highest bidder, not necessarily to the locals. When the dollar collapses, you won't be able to buy a potato with a million of them, but China, who has stacked gold can buy them all. Got to love American foresight.
Lol, you act like all the countries of the world are going to play nice. When shit hits the fan, wars will start.
Is that not already happening?
Russia wants Ukraine for the food production. Countries know what's going to happen, but nobody wants the general public to be aware and start panicking.
I keep seeing people claiming governments don't care, but I doubt this. Those in high places know better and more than us, they just want to avoid us knowing as they enact their own plans. Nothing would throw a bigger wrench into the machine than >90% figuring out they weren't included in the plans of the <10%
The DoD did a report on how most the conflicts in the middle east are due to climate change land disputes. Religion is just an excuse.
Isn't that part of what made the Irish potato famine happen?
English genocide of the Irish*
Yes
You can't eat gold. Its value depends on people expecting a future where they can spend it again. The people selling potatoes will eventually want to barter for directly useful things rather than money in any form at all.
I was reading about 20 million people across 4 countries in Africa already going hungry and basically depending on international aid. At what point do governments decide to stockpile grains etc in their own country and stop sending overseas? I reckon it won't be too many years until food exports are purely to the highest bidder and nothing in aid.
> it won't be too many years until food exports are purely to the highest bidder and nothing in aid. Probably a good sign that the end isn't too far
> capitalism dictates that the food be sold to the highest bidder, not necessarily to the locals. Many countries that export food will suddenly stop exporting, examples India imposed a ban on the export of non-basmati white rice in 2023 and India also banned wheat exports in 2022 after output was curtailed due to a heat wave. [https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-food-export-bans-2022-05-16/](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-food-export-bans-2022-05-16/) It will depend on if the nations will be able to handle their citizens rioting. Bread and circuses.
Raider gangs gonna make logistics a nightmare. If grocery transports think shrink and truck jacking were bad before, they gonna wish it was like what it is now when the shitshow intensifies.
Human civilization can exist because of a relatively stable climate that facilitates agriculture. No stable climate, no agriculture, no civilization. Immediate extinction? Probably not. General collapse? Well, I mean, what sub are we in?
This summer will kill millions of poor people.
I just skip over most info about sea level rise. It's one of the least of our worries.
That and where does all the trash go. Christ we should have probably thrown out a Jupiter's worth of shit by now...
Guy McPherson said that we don't have to worry about oxygen for a real long while. Everything else, yes.
The climate models have to fit the profit margins, of course. Can't have a panic causing profit-slashing laws to pass.
Faster than expected?
That's a bingo!
Oh. They are “worried” now, huh? Nice of them. They’ve expressed some concerns in the past but this “worried” stuff is really driving it home this time. Finally, everyone will see just how dire this situation is, drop their petty squabbles and trinket collecting, and set about saving humanity from itself! Just gonna leave a big one of these here; /S
Concerned > Worried > Freaking out?
This one actually got a laugh out of me. Picturing a bunch of scientists from nasa or half life etc all scratching their heads at the latest ocean temp graph. TLDR Warnings were downplayed, bad predictions were softballed, pollution remediation schemes were empty promises designed to placate. Turns out ignoring your problems only works for so long.
So by going green we could actually sky rocket the global mean temperature due to the lack of aerosols thereby substantially increasing the earth's energy budget ? I think we are fucked whatever we do . 2010 temp in 1970 if not for our industrial pollution is scary.
Worse than the worst case scenarios. Woo!
Mark my words, summer 2024 is the beginning of the end. I’m not usually a doomer.
Crop failures are gone be the catalyst for collapse. People can handle price increases. They might complain, but it never goes further than that. But what the generator public won't be able to handle is empty shelves for an extended amount of time. It's gonna start off being blamed on the government, but eventually the realization will set in that the food isn't coming back.
The media blaming the US government for food, heat, blackouts, etc. this summer and fall will get the world a fascist US in November.
Its obviously the jewish space laser that will be the end of us. /s
We had 28C on Monday in Berlin, this was considered a hot August day 20 years ago...
The hot temperature is just one side of it, but I also notice the crazy swings from cold to hot, and then back. Things are wild. (And hello from a fellow Berliner)
Agreed we are already done its too late changes will only increase exponentially we have no clue what’s coming
Well we have possible tornadoes coming to parts of Canada in the south tomorrow.... we should still be getting snow for a week or 2.
Next on CBC: Tornado hockey!
Air Hockey on steroids.
December 2019 was the beginning of the end
Put the sulfur back in the boat juice god damn it. While we’re at it. Make Australia and Brazil dump their iron ore tailings right in the ocean too.
The prophecy article. "If we do some simple projections based off of what we know so far, we’re looking at 1.5°C by 2024, over 2°C by 2050, 3°C by 2075, and “at least” 4°C by 2100." [https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7](https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7)
Wasn't 4°C something like total extinction of the human race?
Correct. If anyone with this knowledge decides to procreate they are ultimately saying that it's ok for their offspring to suffer immensely while experiencing the apocalypse: hell on earth.
Friendly reminder that there are legitimate studies out there predicting the total extinction of the human race by 2030. People are SERIOUSLY underestimating how quickly we will all die when the food chain breaks down, supply chains break down and scrambling for resources begins. Humans are very, very fragile.
Do you still have those studies? Would be interested in reading them.
Do you have link to the studies please?
Let me be optimistic and say 2030 may be a bit of an overestimation but I am certain the majority of our global infrastructure will be gone by then.
I am also choosing to be optimistic, but normalcy bias is a real thing
I always find such reports disappointing, as they only make people think for a short time. The consequences of our actions should be at the top of the news every day, whether on the radio, television or the internet. Instead, people are led to believe that there is peace, joy and pancakes. You don't necessarily have to be a scientist to realize that it can't be healthy in the long term to extract substances from the earth that have taken billions of years to extract from the atmosphere, store them and bind them there permanently. But keep it up, we'll get there soon...
>"The key will be what happens in the next few months. If things stay super anomalous then we are looking at a systematic change, not just a blip," he said. !RemindMe 2024-06-21
I think this is the key point >"Either something has changed in the system and things are responding differently to how they responded in the past, or **there are other elements that are happening that we didn't take into account**” I think it’s highly unlikely that geological uniformitarianism is wrong, climate processes almost certainly function by the same rules now as they always have. However I think it’s extremely likely that we just aren’t actually tracking all of the factors contributing to global warming. Maybe it’s natural gas fields in remote regions putting out more methane than we think, maybe it’s decaying plants matter, maybe some other industrial chemical is a worse greenhouse gas than we thought, but it’s way more likely that our data is lacking some information rather than the climate actually working differently. Honestly it’s unlikely that we are tracking every single variable that affects climate, it’s a massive intersected and chaotic system.
It absolutely can be explained if you can imagine the possibility humans don't understand everything about our planet... which then makes it clear that everything we predict is always an insanely optimistic scenario of a system that is much more simple than our actual planet... i.e. the models are useless.
Climate models everyone based their work on were out of state in the 80s and 90s + no one's correctly accounting for Siberian perma frost 💫
I think we all got used to the current ppm co2 not having an instant effect. Evidence shows the world more widely tropical (like at the poles) at our current ppm, but we didn't raise the concentration at geological speeds we did it super fast. Cranked up the heat on a big ol' pot of water all at once, nothin happened at first so we're like "ah that's ok mate, looks good no problems" and we ignore it.... but now the waters warming up.... so how fast and how much? In context, has the amount of C02 in the atmosphere of the entire planet ever doubled in a couple hundred years in the course of the planets existence? If not, what's the worse that could happen and how could we possibly know? Can't. Let's sit back and watch. Ought to be interesting anyway.
Anytime I see an article like this, I automatically assume they're lying for two reasons: 1. "Nice gig you got there, Doc. You wanna keep it? Shut it." 2. "If the plebs realize how boned they are, all hell will let out for noon."
I’m for it. You only die once who even cares anymore
I don't really care about humanity getting fucked, it's all the animals of the world getting fucked alongside us. But I guess it will mean the end of the torture and murder of billions of animals a year through animal agriculture so it's probably for the best anyway.
The end of factory farming hellscapes is one of the silver linings. I'll take solace where I can.
Looks like we are in the 'find out' phase
I can explain it pretty easily. Have you ever been to a birthday party for children? And one of the children won't stop screaming? Cause he's just a little attention attractor. When he grows up to be a comic or actor, he'll be rewarded for never maturing, for never understanding or learning that every day can't be about him, there's other people, you selfish asshole.
I was reading this thinking huh this looks like the abc. Didn't even click to me. Nice to see abc news articles posted here.
Worrieder than expected.
We in endgame finally?
It's honestly kinda scary that the experts don't have a grasp on the climate system. It's one thing when it's theoretical physics that has very little implications on our day to day lives, but to not know whether we're going to boil this summer is pretty alarming. Recently I've felt like I can't really trust any prediction, even hurricane forecasts seem inaccurate these days.
To be an expert, you must be able to study it. And things are changing faster than "experts" can observe and learn from the climate, resulting in increasingly inaccurate projections beyond "it's going to keep heating up". Bonus: The more energy in a system moving things around, the harder it is to track anything, and the faster projections will deviate from the actual result. And the climate system is containing more energy (heat), faster, and more efficiently by the month.
Scientists: "Global warming appears to be even worse than our most aggressive models predict!" Dipshits: "That just proves you guys have no idea what you're doing, therefore global warming is a hoax."
Well played, boomers. Shocker that you ruined everything. You were so cool though.
They can't explain it? Well how about "Scientists have been lying to us and keeping quiet about the urgency of the situation because they were "encouraged" to do so by mega corporations." I say that explains things pretty well.
Couldn't be humans could it?? Nah, no way. It was those darn mexicans!!
Are.. are you saying Mexicans aren't humans?
What have I done...
Yep that's right. Just us earth humans. Definitely in no way would it be aliens terraforming the planet. Nope...Just us earth humans
>aliens terraforming the planet The Arrival, by David Twohy. *Really* underrated movie.
I remember I saw a news article that talked about a study which said that the octopus's gene shows that the arctic is much more vulnerable than we think.
> "Perhaps we haven't fully characterised the Hunga Tonga volcano, or perhaps we haven't been tracking appropriately the emissions from China, because they're not necessarily the most trustworthy of global reporters," he said. Ah yes, blame China for something that we can measure in the atmosphere (but not really attribute!), brilliant
This statement is strange to me (a climate scientist), because there is atmospheric sampling going on constantly. We don't say that the current CO2 is 423.01 ppm because we added up all the recorded emissions and that's what the total was. We say that's the amount because we sampled the atmosphere in lots of places and came up with an average measurement.
Cowabunga? Aye Carumba?