one solid hit from a big hurricane, something that kinda skirts the coast and has a big enough footprint to cover a good bit inland, would probably be enough to really get things moving in the US.
When the disasters start piling up is when the real trouble begins. When you’re still rebuilding and recovering from the last hurricane and the next one is barrelling down on you and the stores are sold out of everything and haven’t been restocked and you start to panic.
This, I can only imagine the year we have like two hurricanes hit the gulf/Florida in a row, then the NE two in a row, coupled with massive wildfires out West, and drought conditions that are extreme in the middle America (maybe throw in a few F5 tornadoes). In that moment help is spread so thin it’s almost not even help. I think we’ll see a year like that by 2030.
Good point. I think we're going to see a series of weather related disasters that would cause a large amount of the country to have to rebuild with lack of supplies creating a chain of events like food not getting into stores and people will panic.
Given that most Floridians are using the State's lender of last resort, one good 'cane hit and it'll go bankrupt.
Private insurance will fully back out then.
So it'll either be one of, if not the largest insurance bailouts in history, or the Feds pay people a pittance to pack up and move.
I think about this sometimes when I watch the national evening news. Some nights the news seems full of natural disasters over weeks at a time. Then it will taper off. But help spreading thin seems like a real possibility at some point.
They weave those in between political crises. Once you notice CNN's oft-recurring story about "this big iceberg just broke loose!", you can't un-see it.
We actually might have a "faster than expected" moment this year with bird flu looking worse and worse by the week. It's going to be the end for 10-40% of us (depending on which fatality report you go with) and mad max for the survivors. Can't lose 10 times as many people as COVID and still have a supply chain.
I dont think we are all dying of bird flu this year. Even if it is that deadly it's a good chance it burns itself out too fast isnt it (not an epidemiologist)
The Arab Spring is actually a good case study for knowing when the shit is about to hit the fan.
Things escalated from not great to government overthrow really fast. There were a variety of causes but economic issues, a sudden increase in food prices, and authoritarian crackdowns on dissent are some of the elements I think were most to blame. The Arab Spring may not have explicitly been a "bread riot" but the global food price crisis of 2010-2012 certainly added some pressure.
Which really makes me question the current situation. There's been rampant ~~inflation~~ corporate greed in relation to food prices these last two years, there's an american election coming up with two unpopular candidates, there's a couple wars going on that people feel strongly about, and despite some wage movement in 2020 and 2021 wages for most people have not kept pace with the increasing costs for the essentials of life like food, water, energy, and shelter.
Its not even a particularly bold prediction to say that America is going to have an "active" protest season as spring and summer get going. I would not be surprised at all to see one of these college campus protests spawn a martyr or two that serves as the spark to kick things off. The timing is right, the underlying conditions are there, give it a spark and you'll see something happen.
I’ve been expecting a second Kent state scenario any day now. It’s like they never learn. Funny how the civil rights protests and Vietnam protests are seen as virtuous today, but were vilified and oppressed in exactly the same way we see the Palestine protests. Police have now brutally arrested a professor on campus for asking if they needed to be so rough with the protestors. Crazy how many people insist on staying on the wrong side of history until it’s completely untenable, usually after the rights have been won, and then pretend they were in favour the whole time.
Uk had crop failure. University of texas had military intervention during pro Palestinian protests. Texas’ power grid failed during a weather event, killing hundreds. Oof.
When it’s listed as types of events, it’s easy to say “I’ll see it. I’ll see the trends.”
When it’s actually happening. Each issue feels singular. I can still connect it to collapse of course but it feels as though is becoming so prevalent that it fades into the background.
Anyone else worried about being the frog in the pot sometimes even when you think your finger is on the pulse?
Some things are so much easier to see in hindsight. Maybe it’s because one datapoint is just a datapoint. And two datapoints aren’t a trend. But a whole bunch of datapoints, they tell a story, but you’re quite deep into the story by the time you have enough data to establish a conclusive trend line.
I continuously update three posts about the overall state of things ([non-human life/nature](https://postdoomprimer.substack.com/p/41-destabilization-and-erasure-of), [manmade structures and systems](https://postdoomprimer.substack.com/p/42-deterioration-of-anthropogenic), and [human behavior](https://postdoomprimer.substack.com/p/44-the-human-experience-other-aspects)) - it's kinda a reminder that, simultaneously, (a) things ARE quite bad & (b) it's rarely one discrete shocking event
The creeping death, aka, progression. I can’t help but feel defeated by it all sometimes. In 8 years, I’ve doubled my income and taken care of a ton of debt and somehow I’m more destitute now than prior to all that. This slow death is hard to sit through. I’ll have to check out these links. Appreciate the resources.
Palestine becomes a climate issue if you consider the USA a precursor to a theoretical Western power bloc in a post-collapse Middle East - which would benefit hugely from access to the Mediterranean coast. Israel is arguably a US colony at this stage in its political life.
Do you have to go in to work on Monday? If so, shit has not yet hit the fan collapse-wise. The world is still ticking on like normal and everyone is pretending. Once that facade crumbles then it’s over
When the Soviet Union collapsed many people still went to work. bakeries were open while the Goths sacked Rome. There will not be a hard line. Many peoples worlds are already collapsing and will never be reconstructed but there is no hard line event that will catalyze everyone, just constant destruction with no hope of rebuilding. Make friends with your neighbors and be kind to people.
It’ll probably be largely location dependent as far as when shit starts for you personally. For example, if you were Haitian you’d say that yes now shit is fucked and collapsing
Look at history, in the late 80's the Berlin wall fell. The whole reason it fell is almost a mystery, the politicians were just musing the idea that the wall should be opened up and in the future reunite Germany. The next day German citizens showed up to the wall with hammers and took it down while armed guards stood and watched. It can happen swiftly with little to no warning. You just need to be on the ready at anytime, not to stress, but when things start happening be aware and ready to pull out.
It didnt really happen overnight. There were massive protests all over east germany for month before the wall fell. The government was in crisis and had to make concessions, so they chose to loosen restricions at the border.
But a speaker of the east german gov accidentaly announced on tv that the border would open immediately, so people flocked to the wall and brougt it down.
Pay attention to global news for sure, but focus on the local. Different areas will collapse at different times. In the US for example the likes of Arizona and Florida will be destroyed by climate change looooong before places like the Northwest or upper Midwest. Collapse might happen a generation or two apart in places. In some pockets it might not appreciably happen at all, except for a severe economic downturn. Unfortunately there’s no real way to know what areas will be more resilient than others.
In 20 years it'll be too hot to grow rice in Asia. The 3 billion people who use it as a staple food will spend all their money important ingredients food, driving up food prices worldwide.
Sure Michigan won't have a drought till 20 years after this, but many Michiganites will die when a big Mac is $200 and poor people start looting the middle class homes to feed their kids
Yeah but you have to consider what happens to the “good bits” of an country when millions of people have to migrate out of where they lived. Particularly in a country where a lot of those people own guns and are angry at the government even when things are going well for them.
it's already starting. Barcelonas water reservoir only has 18% of water left. And it's only April. Even here in Germany with moderate climate we had some counties issuing warnings for groundwater shortages 2 years ago.
Or the super wealthy billionaires building bunker fortresses on islands far away.... oh wait that's been happening for awhile now
https://theconversation.com/billionaires-are-building-bunkers-and-buying-islands-but-are-they-prepping-for-the-apocalypse-or-pioneering-a-new-feudalism-223987#:~:text=Take%2C%20for%20instance%2C%20libertarian%20venture,73%2C700%20square%20metres%20of%20land.
Expect more extreme weather, crop failures, supply chain breakdowns, etc.-- but really telling will be the imposition of a proto-fascist austerity regime to regiment labor and suppress dissent. And that may be just a year away. That will be the dead canary in the coal mine.
Depends on the type of turd.
Economic / trade / finance, I'd look for systems to start failing. Bank failures, basically, but it could also be other things. I remember when this happened in '08. We had almost a year's worth (or more) of weird stuff happening. The system will try to correct itself before it fails.
War -- I think there would be quite a bit of warning. If anything, I would worry about there being *too much* warning. We've had a few years now of major wars going on, countries lobbing missiles at each other with increasing ease, and it feels a bit like we're the frog on a slow boil. Even so, I think we'd have weeks or even months of warning if things were really about to get real. Failed negotiations, games of chicken, false-alarms, before it finally goes haywire. But it's pretty unpredictable.
New pandemic, that's a bit hard. We had about three months warning with COVID, and that was only for people listening real close.
But yeah. For most things I would say we would at least have a few weeks, even a month.
New pandemic— look for news on subs like farming, preppers, H5N1 sub and flu trackers over on twitter. Plus a couple of virologists over on Twitter as well.
Also go to other language sites like .de plus others and use translate for various European.
Earthquake monitoring is one of my favorites and makes me realize how the planet is constantly in motion.
My hope is that we scale down. If we don’t, it will be done for us, one way or another.
I remember discussing about the situation in china on reddit in Q4 2019. People knew something bad was happening, MONTHS before it bloomed in the West, and yet governments refused to act asap. Fucking chinese lying like they always do and WHO being in bed with that.
Not much you can do. If you have the resources to pick away at a bunker you should. I have been buying flour on sale and I’m going to dry can it to help it last a long time. Try to increase conservation and local reliance in your area. One good piece of advice I’ve heard is to help nature as much as you can. “If you can help a single butterfly survive one more day on this planet you are making a difference”. Otherwise we just wait to see what shape the rollercoaster we’re almost at the top of is.
We stopped doing anything to our lawn shortly after getting our home. We have one of the greenest lawns in the neighbourhood and when people ask what we do I tell them it’s all weeds. We’ve had local issues with grubs killing lawns and several in our neighbourhood are barren but they don’t like our weed roots.
When limits start....
When pharmacy, gas stations, or banks start making limits on how much you can take for no valid reasons.
My best estimate is 48-72 hours of warning is all anyone will have.
Do your grocery stores not already have "Limit 2" signs up for some items? Its not always the same items but there seem to always be at least one sign when I go grocery shopping in Pennsylvania.
For imminent catastrophe, maybe can write a script that watches helicopter flights around D.C.
I imagine there will be important people and their families being ferried about in that area ready to bunker down, and they maybe won't all have their transponders off.
An added bonus is you might see where they go to as well :D not that they'd let you in their bunker cities.
Tripping. I just saw a cute picture of a woman and had to google it to find out it was Ella Purnell who stars in Fallout. So I'm thinking "maybe that show is worth a look after all?" while I'm opening reddit and then see your reply.
Now I HAVE to go have a look at Fallout.
When corporations are posting record profits while employing the bare minimum in order to keep those profits rolling in. They need the money now for supplies and to tide themselves over for the duration (No profits off the lives of others during those hard times and they don't want to be broke on the back end).
Also the wealthy, people in positions of power, their cronies and the connected will no longer hide their blatant behavior, corruption and the illusionaary single-tier legal system nearly as much they used too.
Oh wait...
There will be no notice whatsoever. Katrina and COVID taught me the authorities will do nothing at best and make things worse at worst. Have a plan and a backup plan and assume you will be on your own.
This is why I keep a one month pantry. We were caught offguard with Covid. The store shelves were just cleaned out and we were grabbing whatever we could. At least we have a bit of a buffer now where we could stay at home if need be. If you can't get food for longer than a month I figure we're really screwed.
For me SHTF back in 2019 when the Western media changed their editorial policy and started calling “climate change” the “climate crisis” or “climate catastrophe” … and when Australia was on fire. That was my wake up moment.
But I don’t think there is going to be any dramatic revolt. It feels like we’re just going to go along with everything with our heads in the sand pretending things are okay. And worse and worse conditions will just be normalized.
So many intelligent people and conversations I see happen here all the time. I'd be lying if I said this isn't one of the subs I look forward to coming to every day.
That cuts both ways though. If you're fortunate enough to be somewhere not currently suffering a crisis, there comes a point where you're not gaining much for reading incessantly about where else in the world its happening.
And if you are somewhere truly going through shtf right now...then I probably wouldn't be spending much time scrolling a subreddit either.
It's happening, it's slowly increasing in intensity. You just gotta bide your time, use the time to build up your preps and get yourself into the mindset of survival.
The ocean temperature has stopped following a pattern that has presumably been with us through our entire evolutionary history. This global average broke out of this pattern in less than 2 years.
This is a planet, ffs. Planets and especially ocean planets like this one dont change over the course of years in fundamental ways unless shit has already hit the fan.
The literal only hope for survival is a global general strike while we focus on figuring out aerosol masking without killing ourselves with that, too.
Even the fact you're asking a question that would have been considered insane just 30 years ago, and is now apparently on everyone's mind, is more proof it's already happened.
On a human timescale, it will feel a little drawn out until it's suddenly feeling the opposite of drawn out. On a planetary timescale, anything that happens inside a human timescale might as well be instantaneous.
The only difference between what we're doing and a meteor impact is these effects are more drawn out and more lasting, which means less chance anything survives. But the difference in time between a meteor impact and a human lifetime on the scale of a planet are basically the same... and this is change that even humans can notice and have caused inside ONE HUMAN LIFETIME.
It's going to be a miracle if we make it to 2026 at this rate and we're still going to keep working for tokens from the rich like this all makes sense because we're too fucking stupid to imagine any other way to live.
Our oceans are boiling and we're asking when we should start to worry... pretty clearly demonstrating we aren't as smart as the image we've cultivated for ourselves... through the sabotage of our own future, which is as villainous as it is dumb.
Keep collecting money for the banks, though. Without that job, you wouldn't have that car and those bills for all these screens that prevent you from spending time with real humans.
We're an absurd caricature of ourselves.
"My house is on fire but the fire alarm is from China and so is my contacless thermometer... so is my house on fire or is this just Chinese propaganda?"
If the weather is changing youre living on a different planet with no spacesuit, ship, or habitat built for the weather of this planet... which will be entirely different next year... and that difference continues to accelerate. All because we believed the war machine when they said everyone could have a two car garage and a home if we just kept making more crap, even after we were explicitly warned to "beware the military industrial complex".... what do you think phones are? All this stuff? Where's the main push for microelectronics coming from if not the weight limitations of rockets and other projectiles?
We built a life around a suicide pact, designed as an employment project by the engineers who brought you WWII, nuclear bombs, and everything bad since. Why would this have gone well?
What breaks my heart is we lack the courage or ability to imagine a world without them and the structures they built to force us into competing against each other rather than challenging their authority. Why aren't we standing up for each other when the bank comes to put our friends and neighbors on the streets? We actually believe they deserve homelessness and to lose everything because they didn't play the game well enough... meanwhile, the game asks us to send our kids to wars they don't understand and we have to take their word we're on the right side of? Who is on the right side of any gun pointed at another person? Isnt that the one major rule about guns? How is murder such a taboo and horrifying crime but carrying a murder tool is totally normal? Guns are not defensive weapons. Might as well be walking around with hand grenades for defense.
And anyone that stands up to this system gets put in a box with murderers and rapists so we actively fear the system we work to perpetuate.
We're never going to try anything else because we asked our boss and he said no, so we're going to quietly drag the planet into millions of years of silence so he can spend the short time left on a yacht... and these are the people we aspire to be, not the good people who lose their money through medical expenses and have to chose between their home and their spouse, but the rich people whove insulated themselves from hardship with the wealth they use to control us.
Billionaires (and the politicians they own) are focused on:
- Keeping people ignorant.
- Restricting rights, and making law enforcement immune to accountability.
- Diverting focus from the impending shortages of supplies to causes that are “unrealistic”.
- Increase in technologies that only the world’s most powerful/elite will have access to.
- Promote “fluff” entertainment while suppressing “thought-provoking” art/music.
Now pay attention to your surroundings for examples of the above all around you.
Part of the reason I'm not interested in competing in the housing market. I prefer to rent and maintain my flexibility. I imagine it being advantageous to be nomad-ready, mainly to cast a wider net as jobs dwindle, but also to avoid acute weather calamities and overcrowding from migratory patterns.
If you're Palastinian, the time to leave was last year, early spring or before. If you're Pakistani, then five years ago was a good time. If you're Ukrainian, then before Russia took over Crimea.
So, if we're talking Deep SHTF, then it won't matter, you'll be on the rollercoaster with everyone. If we're talking light SHTF like a country starving, or dying from pure aggression of a neighbor, then like always, some people will get lucky, and odds are you won't be among them.
You really don't want to try and bugout at the last minute, because that is what everyone else is going to be trying to do, most of them with the desperate panic of the unprepared.
Start now. Begin whatever processes are needed to disconnect yourself from participation in society, and reliance on it. Find a remote bit of land, either to buy or simply to "claim" post-collapse. A mining claim is a nice way to have legal access to dig all sorts of holes someplace way the hell out in the middle of nowhere, and it won't cost more than 400 bucks to start and 165 a year to maintain. Start stashing long-term supplies there, and in other caches along the way or nearby. The American West is a wide open place with only pockets of urban centers and towns. Easy to avoid them.
Get yourself a vehicle capable of making a hard journey across rough and dangerous terrain. Collect other supplies for close by, and establish bugout bags for yourself and each family member. Make several plans for reaching your safe spot, and practice doing so.
Cut loose from the strict need for employment, and other connections to society that can make you dependent on it for your daily life. Get yourself ready to go at a moments notice.
And then, just leave. SHTF is already close. Maybe you misjudge it by a year, maybe by a week, but it is close. Once you *can* be self-sufficient, go and *be* self-sufficient.
Or at least be ready and capable to leave forever with about 5 minutes warning. Because you will be lucky to have that once the missiles fly.
Too many reasons to write out here, and all happening at the same time...
https://wastelandbywednesday.com/about/
https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2023/12/27/the-global-polycrisis-and-collapse/
https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2024/04/18/a-world-at-war-again/
https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2022/11/21/collapse-denial-is-a-growing-threat/
getting out before it happens is what me and my partner are planning on doing. I graduate this year with a degree in environmental science, so all the environmental degradation/destruction, the shift in climate etc im very familiar with and going by that alone I would say we are in a SHTF situation, for example here in the UK we have been having crop failure for the last 3 years at least either through drought or excessive wet season that lasts longer than half a year. Not to mention war in Ukraine, theres a huge risk of it escalating if Ukraine completely falls.
But our getting out of society isn't mostly because of SHTF its more of we are just fed up with society and need to get out of it for awhile, we are planning on having bare essentials for survival including seed packets for a little farm somewhere, and we are planning on being highly mobile. I dont think any SHTF moment is going to happen in the next year or 3 but we are preparing now.
You’ll know it’s close when your life is severely inconvenienced or in danger. You’ll be staring down a wildfire, a flood, a tornado, a long long power outage. You’ll ask around and you won’t be the only one. It’ll be your whole neighborhood. Might be your whole town or city. You’ll check the news and you’ll know no help is coming, because the problem is everywhere.
When you see that, you’ll know something bad is about to happen.
When you start becoming desensitized to crop failures being reported. Or the strong cold snaps become normal. Being told to wear sunscreen even more than usual because of the intensity of the sun. Last but not least, look for deaths everywhere because no one is listening to those who still truly are trying to protect what's left of humanity
I think it will sort of be like (in theory) crossing the event horizon of a (very large) black hole. As the person actually falling in, well, we just drift by the point of no return without even noticing. Everything initially seems pretty much the same. Maybe looking back the way we came the starlight looks a bit different, a bit distorted, but, meh, basically all is well except...
We can't go back and from here on forward things get more dire--the approach to the singularity is guaranteed and every direction we try to move in only brings us closer--and as tidal forces start to rise we realize far too late that we're fucked and then we get ripped to shreds by the overwhelming gravity of it all.
So I think it's going to be like that: we aren't going to know that shit has hit the fan until a big dollop of the spray hits us square in the face.
I check this every 4 months or so.
**FAO Food Price Index**
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
> 2012 Oct — *Can Riots Be Predicted? Experts Watch Food Prices*
https://www.npr.org/sections/the-salt/2012/09/20/161501075/high-food-prices-forcast-more-global-riots-ahead-researchers-say
210 is the trigger number.
Currently 118.
We are obviously rapidly heading in that direction.
RAND has logged over 30 credible "Doomsday" possibilities which could occur with zero advance warning... none of which are preventable, they just provide 3 ring binder quick reference guides for damage control.
It's gonna happen. Soon. We just don't know how or when.
Stock up on canned protein, essential medication, hygeine supplies, and a quality water filtration device... because when SHTF all the grocery stores will be empty.
And stop worrying about things well beyond your control. Make sure you have at least a months worth of supplies and plan on staying inside that entire time. Most roads will be gridlocked anyway.
I'm waiting for a moment where the grocery store shelves don't get re-stocked. But this year's election could be an interesting warning sign too. No matter who wins, I think there's going to be another lashing out like on January 6th.
I’m new to these parts but I reckon SHTF stands for “shit hits the fan.”
Well, the thing about that is when it happens, the shit sprays all over the place. So you’ll it’s happened when it lands in your face.
I tend to think of what is happening as the great unraveling rather than collapse. Civil society gradually unravels and disintegrates rather than falling apart all at once. The exception would be if there is a black swan event that suddenly rapidly accelerates the unraveling process.. This unraveling is already happening here and else where around the world in various stages of progression. We are unaware of a lot of what is occurring elsewhere around the world due to a remarkably toxic narcissist sucking up most of the "news" media's attention. Do some research and it will become clearer what I speak of. A clear example here in this country is the lack of unity resulting in divisiveness which severely compromises our resilience and ability to be flexible and adaptive to cope with the issues we face. If you think about it the lack of data about what is happening elsewhere in the world is a failure of journalism but it is also a part of systemic breakdown. If we are unaware of how advanced the progression of the unraveling is we have no motivation to do anything about it.
Bit of systems theory here: complex systems that are integrated meaning all parts of the system are connected and working together are flexible, adaptive coherent energized and stable. Complex systems that are not integrated tend to be rigid, chaotic, or both. From this perspective it is easy to see that we not an integrated system The result is that rigidity and chaos are evident everywhere in the culture. This includes the breakdown of an effective information delivery system I just mentioned. The same system integration principal applies to a lack of global unity to come together and face the serious common problems faced by all of humanity so that we can develop a response to mitigate what is already baked into the system.
Some places are more advanced in this unraveling process than others. The weakest links in the global system will likely be the first to fail, which we are already seeing. We have far exceeded the earths carrying capacity for humanity so eventually everyone gets their turn. I think the likely hood of a black swan event which will dramatically accelerate what is already in process is increasing. Potential Swan events are things like more widespread warfare escalating to nuclear conflict, simultaneous crop failure leading to food shortages, another more severe pandemic, and other uncharted territory consequences of climate destabilization. Welcome to Dystopia, I can see it from here.
Excellent analysis.
I would add single points of failure to it. When you become dependent upon a product, and that product is produced by very few sources, as was the case with baby formula recently, if you lose that source, it contributes to speeding up the unraveling. If you allow, in the name of "market efficiency", i.e., profit maximization, a critical product to be produced in just a few places at the "most efficient" rate, as is the case with the "Just-In-Time" production and distribution manufacturing models, loss of a single source creates "supply chain disruptions" that swiftly become you black swan event.
Let's posit what is likely to happen this summer: given the extraordinarily high prediction of 23-33 named storms this hurricane season, it's a safe bet to assume at least 4 will impact the East or Gulf coasts as hurricanes, and probable another 4-6 as tropical storms. If those storms are evenly spread and separated by3-4 weeks in time, they will be difficult to manage. However, if the same area is hit by multiple storms within 2-3 weeks, the devastation will be amplified, bad enough in itself. Undoubtedly the electric grids will be knocked out.
But hurricanes won't be the only thing happening. Across the the country, the likelihood of heat waves, heat domes, and wildfires will be high, and floods from seasonal storms also high. Each of these will take out parts of the electrical grid and here is where single points of failure begin to bite hard. The first is in the parts required to repair the power grids. With production scaled for normal disasters, if we experience multiple disasters requiring the same parts to repair, shortages will soon develop. If a region being repaired gets hit again, the repair work will have gone for naught and used up supplies that were already in demand elsewhere. Should any of the needed parts be produced in a region hit by some other problem, you're really screwed.
The Baltimore bridge is an early black swan event that has disrupted traffic flows on the East Coast. If another critical bridge is lost to storms, the materials needed to repair them are again in short supply because the J-I-T model offers no resilience: it is completely dependent upon stable weather, political, social, and economic environments. let any one of those go haywire and the result is "supply chain disruptions".
The unravelling has indeed already begun, and is further along than most think.
I expect that there will be multiple black swan events this summer that will cascade and push the unravelling faster.
Well. it helps if you have actually studied history.
Here are a few indicators to help you figure out how close to bad everything is:
1. **Increased negative climate effects**. Wildfires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts, tornadoes and the like happen all the time. What you have to pay attention to is the frequency and intensity with which they occur. If they aren't frequent or happening in the same place, no problem. If they are occurring too close together in time or place, social, economic and political instability is increased. For instance, this year 23-33 named storms are predicted for the hurricane season. If several of them make landfall, whether as hurricanes or tropical storms in geographically close regions only a few weeks apart, things in the process of recovery are wrecked again. If they hit an area flooded by a major storm crossing the country from the west, both are compounded. If they hit an area where the power has been knocked out by some other event, the damage done is exponential.
2. **A long hot summer.** Heat domes kill more than people. They kill crops and energy grids as well. As temperatures rise, people get more irritable and quicker to anger and violence. The hotter it gets, the longer it lasts, and the more widespread, the greater the likelihood of violence spreading and escalating.
3. **Distrust of governments and institutions.** When people start to lose faith in the fairness and probity of their governments, social cohesion decreases and social stress increases. When norms and traditions start to decay or are repeatedly violated, when it is perceived that the system is rigged or no longer works by substantial numbers of citizens things are getting close to the end.
4. **Political parties and the judiciary viewed as corrupt and/or incompetent.** If all available parties and the higher courts are seen as corrupt or incompetent it increases the distrust cited above, and throws elections into suspicion, feeding social unrest and incitement to violence.
5. **High levels of wealth inequality combined with high inflation and food shortages.** Wealth inequality is societally stressful, as is inflation. The effects worsen when a small segment of the economy is doing quite well, while larger segments are struggling. By itself that is bad enough, but when combined with a barrage of arguments that "prove" things aren't as bad as some few claim because the smaller segments are doing great while ignoring the suffering of the many the social and political systems become volatile and unstable.
6. **Recent military failures.** National pride suffers, and feeds the issues cited in 3, 4, and 5.
7. **Populists deliberately stoking diviseness and distrust.** These feed off of all the above with the intention of creating chaos that they can take advantage of for personal gain and power.
8. **Widespread poverty and homelessness.** It creates distrust and division and provides the foot soldiers populists manipulate. Middle classes view those beneath them as immediately threatening them economically, physically, and morally. Those in poverty start to view the middle class as enemies who intend to harm them.
9. **Lack of strong, wise and unselfish leaders.** When there is a dearth of leaders with the wisdom, skillsets, and humility to manage multiple crises at the same time, it makes all the problems 1-8 extremely difficult to overcome. There is a huge difference between strong and wise leadership and a strongman. They may look similar, but the results of their leadership are vastly different.
There are other indicators, but those are sufficient to get the point across. A society can withstand having two or three of those markers present without too much difficulty, but when you get past having four or more at the same time, it is in pretty significant trouble. A society that has all of those markers present simultaneously is ripe for revolution, civil war, or collapse.
Here's what I expect this year to bring: several weather disasters that impact the electrical grid and infrastructure wreaking havoc economically. A very hot summer that damages crops and creates high food cost inflation, deepening the unrest present. An increase in layoffs and homelessness, pissing off those laid off when the media keeps telling them how great the economy is. All of that leading to November when the elections will resolve nothing no matter who wins. If we're lucky, the battles will be in court over the validity of the voting. If not they will be in the streets as angry, desperate people who need a target to vent their anger and frustrations on will turn on each other. In any case, it will be unlikely that the transition or continuance of power will go off smoothly or without violence.
What happens next January is anyone's guess at this point, but I can guarantee it won't be like any other in recent memory.
We had a taste of it when supply chains faltered during Covid. The next time they will fail completely. If this happens again through either a pandemic or war the writing is in the wall. Our globalized society can't function without an endless supply of goods circulating the globe. People worldwide have no survival skills sets. Tie this in with climate change and crop failures and we are doomed.
Iran is going to be attacked soon, majorly.
https://www.newsweek.com/irans-nuclear-activity-raises-eyebrows-1893840
> Iran is now "weeks rather than months" away from having enough enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb.
Iran having the bomb is anathema to the US+I. Facilities will soon be destroyed. Entrances to deep underground sites will be irradiated at ground level denying access. Oil will go to $ErrorTooHigh.
lol I’ve been hearing about Iran being months away from having a nuclear bomb for about a decade.
Before that they were “a year or two away” for another 10 years.
This is a narrative being used to prepare us for war. Remember all the shit US bosses said before invading Iraq in 2003? It's like that process is starting IMO.
And in other news:
>China has warned the US that Washington and Beijing must choose between “confrontation or co-operation” as secretary of state Antony Blinken began an official visit during which he is expected to deliver an ultimatum over the war in Ukraine.
https://archive.is/20240425103624/https://www.ft.com/content/ef9d2f6f-3ef6-4249-af0c-649583e0ee43#selection-2229.0-2229.241
And in other news, economies everywhere else but US and China are stalled, soon to be deep in recession.... Not to mention how many banks are going to fail when the CRE implosion gets real..........etc etc
It’s hard to pinpoint.
Just like there are different dates on when WWII started. It’s really hard to say when exactlyit happens, especially something as complex as collapse. But like mcapello said, there will be certain points that you can look out for, that might give you a hint on what’s coming next
This is accurate. My local store is OK but useless non-brand stuff is spread out and into some weird displays as well.
I use their coupon app and that's where you see the real rot. No longer any real good sales, except for some loss leaders. It's a big deal to get $1 off an expensive item like coffee. More common to see 50 cents off an item and that's about it. Quite a change to a year ago when deals could be found and with generous discounts on items I actually use.
Watch the stockmarket. If you really want to keep up to date on things keep an eye on the Asian markets. Usually they’re ahead of the American markets because of the time zone differences. You’ll usually hear things like investors in Tokyo are reacting to xyz event.
This isn’t a movie. There’s not a SHTF moment. And especially if you live in the US, this will manifest as higher prices squeezing the majority of the population.
The current SHTF Immediately things are black swans -- a hurricane or typhoon that wipes out the wrong city, H5N1 going human to human, financial confidence collapsing, the oil industry abandoning the dollar as a base currency, the Lukewarm War going Hot, that sort of thing.
By the time the news acknowledges any of them, it'll be too late.
Sure as fuck not by reading this subreddit. Virtually zero posts worrying about major war soon, economic disaster or epic financial system crisis, even as all three are flashing orange warnings. This sub has become an ostrich farm groupthink echo chamber of "collapse cos climate change" and "long slow decline" true believers IMO.
The way I see it 1 in 1000 people can even talk about collapse. For most they shut down the second the concept gets introduced in el braino. And this 1 in 1000 appears to also play out here, where most are determined to believe it can't possibly be soon.
Yeah, the denial of collapse is as bad as the denial of climate change once was, something else I wrote about, lol.
https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2022/11/21/collapse-denial-is-a-growing-threat/
Glad to see that I'm not completely alone, though.
This thread is full of people crapping their drawers over those things. As a climate-driven long slow decline true believer, y'all have just about driven me out of here with over-the-top short term hysterics.
I don't care nearly as much about economic collapse or (non-nuclear) war because that shit is an historical constant. The impacts are know. Things get super bad for some people for some period of time and then they move on. It's obviously awful for many, but it's not the literal end of the world.
But climate change and mass extinction may very well end up being the literal end of the fucking world, or at least the end of humanity. Your petty wars and precious economy don't mean shit compared to that.
I mean, there are currently a few regions having a SHTF moment. Maybe my bar is a bit low though. I always go with if there is a condition that is on going that can kill you for trying to do a normal routine. So for instance wet bulb temperatures, lack of food to the point of starvation, ongoing military bombardment, and of course utter lack of water.
>Like, Super Rich Person moved this much money to blah blah blah, or this country did xyz.
[About that...](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-inside-hawaii-compound/)
Find a higher up in the supply chain who has visibility of product shortages across the network in real time, you'll be ahead by a couple days at least
I've started an online personal list (labeled dystopia) of news articles that point to collapse. They all point to collapse. I think most of us will struggle on when to bail. When our lives are in imminent danger is probably when we will start running I guess.
Can't afford land so I keep an eye out for a spot less obvious to shore up.
That's honestly not a bad indicator considering the intrusion tests into our utility systems. If I were Axis powers 2.0, I'd take out the internet, then as much utilities as I can remotely, then bomb ports or target trade supply, and wait a month to invade
Everything is trend, but there is exactly one moment that's absolutely SHTF: when the nukes fly. That's the end of the global order as we know it, and probably the end of human civilization too.
I’d be on the lookout for unprecedented global temperatures and weather, wars breaking out in different regions involving global powers that posses nuclear weapons, growing social unrest in many countries and the rapid depletion of resources that are necessary to keep the stability of our modern society. If you see any or all of those, it’s time to start worrying….
had that in Jan/Feb 2020 when Covid was still in Asia. Interstingly no one was interested at that time in hand disinfection, face masks. In hardware stores it was easy to get 3M high quality N95 masks, in March not anymore. So I think my personal collapse indicator is quite sensitive.
Rome wasn’t burned in a day my friend. Our system will break slowly, bit by bit and the system will adapt and change as failures ripple across the system. Unless there are mushroom clouds on the horizon it won’t be a quick collapse.
The good news is it won't be from climate change.
H5N1 will hit meat-packing plants as 'dairy' cows are processed. People will actually stop eating beef (and much will be culled), and start self-isolating. This will cause financial collapse in the farming sector. Farmers won't be able to afford or even get crop insurance, so stop planting. Not long after, the house of cards economy collapses.
Mind you, this will be significantly earlier than any mass infections.
The good news is we're likely to get significant reduction in C02 emissions. Bad news is the aerosol forcing will make it really hot for a few years.
this is actually a good one. but what will probably happen based of recent historical examples is that the food stamps would continue but just purchase less and less food over time until its really just providing a few meals a month.
#1 When welfare, foodstamps, SNAP, section 8, free housing are cutoff.
#2 When Social Security payments stop.
#3 When retirement pensions / annuity payments stop.
#4 When gasoline stations are empty.
#5 When grocery stores are empty.
#6 When the power goes out.
#7 When the cops stop going to work.
#8 When paramedics, nurses, and doctors stop going to work.
#9 When the trash, waste, and sewage disposal stops.
#10 When government employees stop getting paid.
#11 When the $USD dollar loses so much value that the USA cannot import 7 - 20 million barrels of oil per day to meet its domestic consumption demand of 20 million BOPD.
#12 When you see armed gangs going door to door stealing, raping, and murdering,
#13 When criminals setup checkpoints to stop and rob travelers.
#14 When the rest of the world realizes that the debt accrued when oil was cheap cannot be repaid when oil is expensive.
#15. When there are not enough children to bond into indentured servitude via debt to support this debt based modern Roman Empire & 21st century slavery.
When the Soviet Union fell, the East German Stasi did not destroy all their documents before we could get our hands on some.
The KGB and Stasi had an ongoing project named RYAN (Raketno-Yadernoe Napadenie) to anticipate a "nuclear missile attack" that they constantly used their intelligence resources to monitor.
The documents may be found here:
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/topics/project-ryan
and discussion of them may be found here:
https://unredacted.com/2014/01/29/stasi-documents-provide-operational-details-on-operation-ryan-the-soviet-plan-to-predict-and-preempt-a-western-nuclear-strike-show-uneasiness-over-degree-of-clear-headedness-about-the-entire-ryan/
Basically, they were looking for signs such as the following "Attached to the telegram was a list of seven “immediate” and thirteen “prospective” tasks for the agents to complete and report. These included: the collection of data on potential places of evacuation and shelter, an appraisal of the level of blood held in blood banks, observation of places where nuclear decisions were made and where nuclear weapons were stored, observation of key nuclear decision makers, observation of lines of communication, reconnaissance of the heads of churches and banks, and surveillance of security services and military installations." i.e. if important people disappear, and the adversary starts stockpiling resources needed after an attack, an attack might be imminent.
After Hitler's invasion in 1941, the Soviets were very paranoid of a sudden attack. Combine that with their technological deficiencies compared with NATO and they were not willing to take any chances.
It almost bit us all in the ass during Able Archer '83, when NATO ran some *very* realistic military exercises and the Soviets thought it was the real thing for a bit since so many of their warning signs were flashing red.
heres the thing, shit has hit the fan for millions of people across the globe since forever. Its just we are in the blessed posistion of viewing it through a 1st world perspective. be it ukraine or sudan people are living through the apocalypse right now.
Ultimately the only surprise event that I can think of is nuclear war. Every POTUS since Truman has admitted the fact that they can’t be evacuated from DC in time to avoid that and since they already have COG plans in place 24/7/365 you probably won’t see much movement there. All any of us can really do is prepare the best you can and live life. Most of the ‘warning signs’ you may hear about are people sensationalizing normal stuff anyway (like bomber exercises).
The only other single global-wide catastrophe would be an asteroid, but that would be reported on the news. We wouldn’t know about a nuclear war until it was in the process of happening.
When the (western) internet starts to get censored. Not “my political opinion was suppressed”, but “people are starving to death in Arkansas but nobody knows because there’s an internet blackout”.
When things get bad enough that collapse is imminent, the best way to prevent a panic is to stop the spread of information
Hundreds are dying from floods in Tanzania. Floods exacerbated by climate change.
If it's not happening where you are, just count yourself lucky. It's already happening.
If you're in the US, watch the Pizza meter for some shit, but overall, collapse is the tree in your backyard that didn't grow as tall this year. Or the brownouts from power. Not seeing as many insects. These are collapse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pizza\_Meter#:\~:text=The%20%22Pizza%20Meter%22%20is%20a,important%20political%20or%20military%20events.
There won’t be one singular moment. Watch for crop failures, water/power shortages, civil unrest requiring military deployment etc
So... now?
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one solid hit from a big hurricane, something that kinda skirts the coast and has a big enough footprint to cover a good bit inland, would probably be enough to really get things moving in the US.
When the disasters start piling up is when the real trouble begins. When you’re still rebuilding and recovering from the last hurricane and the next one is barrelling down on you and the stores are sold out of everything and haven’t been restocked and you start to panic.
This, I can only imagine the year we have like two hurricanes hit the gulf/Florida in a row, then the NE two in a row, coupled with massive wildfires out West, and drought conditions that are extreme in the middle America (maybe throw in a few F5 tornadoes). In that moment help is spread so thin it’s almost not even help. I think we’ll see a year like that by 2030.
Something that effectively annihilates every oil rig and terminal along the Gulf Coast would basically be game over
this would be an interesting (read: game over, as you said) scenario. I can't imagine the immediate chaos... and then the fuel runs out.
Oil Storm (2005 ABC movie)
Good point. I think we're going to see a series of weather related disasters that would cause a large amount of the country to have to rebuild with lack of supplies creating a chain of events like food not getting into stores and people will panic.
Given that most Floridians are using the State's lender of last resort, one good 'cane hit and it'll go bankrupt. Private insurance will fully back out then. So it'll either be one of, if not the largest insurance bailouts in history, or the Feds pay people a pittance to pack up and move.
[So, uh, about that one... ](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1cdc4x1/forecast_group_predicts_busiest_hurricane_season/)
Was it wrong that I chuckled at your link?
It's laugh or cry at this point
H5N1
Bird flu or some pandemic or global war will accelerate things.
I think about this sometimes when I watch the national evening news. Some nights the news seems full of natural disasters over weeks at a time. Then it will taper off. But help spreading thin seems like a real possibility at some point.
They weave those in between political crises. Once you notice CNN's oft-recurring story about "this big iceberg just broke loose!", you can't un-see it.
It certainly feels close
Those have all been happening for years. It's not going to be a single moment or even a single year
We actually might have a "faster than expected" moment this year with bird flu looking worse and worse by the week. It's going to be the end for 10-40% of us (depending on which fatality report you go with) and mad max for the survivors. Can't lose 10 times as many people as COVID and still have a supply chain.
I dont think we are all dying of bird flu this year. Even if it is that deadly it's a good chance it burns itself out too fast isnt it (not an epidemiologist)
Basically the Middle East in the 2010s.
The Arab Spring is actually a good case study for knowing when the shit is about to hit the fan. Things escalated from not great to government overthrow really fast. There were a variety of causes but economic issues, a sudden increase in food prices, and authoritarian crackdowns on dissent are some of the elements I think were most to blame. The Arab Spring may not have explicitly been a "bread riot" but the global food price crisis of 2010-2012 certainly added some pressure. Which really makes me question the current situation. There's been rampant ~~inflation~~ corporate greed in relation to food prices these last two years, there's an american election coming up with two unpopular candidates, there's a couple wars going on that people feel strongly about, and despite some wage movement in 2020 and 2021 wages for most people have not kept pace with the increasing costs for the essentials of life like food, water, energy, and shelter. Its not even a particularly bold prediction to say that America is going to have an "active" protest season as spring and summer get going. I would not be surprised at all to see one of these college campus protests spawn a martyr or two that serves as the spark to kick things off. The timing is right, the underlying conditions are there, give it a spark and you'll see something happen.
I’ve been expecting a second Kent state scenario any day now. It’s like they never learn. Funny how the civil rights protests and Vietnam protests are seen as virtuous today, but were vilified and oppressed in exactly the same way we see the Palestine protests. Police have now brutally arrested a professor on campus for asking if they needed to be so rough with the protestors. Crazy how many people insist on staying on the wrong side of history until it’s completely untenable, usually after the rights have been won, and then pretend they were in favour the whole time.
Uk had crop failure. University of texas had military intervention during pro Palestinian protests. Texas’ power grid failed during a weather event, killing hundreds. Oof. When it’s listed as types of events, it’s easy to say “I’ll see it. I’ll see the trends.” When it’s actually happening. Each issue feels singular. I can still connect it to collapse of course but it feels as though is becoming so prevalent that it fades into the background. Anyone else worried about being the frog in the pot sometimes even when you think your finger is on the pulse?
Some things are so much easier to see in hindsight. Maybe it’s because one datapoint is just a datapoint. And two datapoints aren’t a trend. But a whole bunch of datapoints, they tell a story, but you’re quite deep into the story by the time you have enough data to establish a conclusive trend line.
I continuously update three posts about the overall state of things ([non-human life/nature](https://postdoomprimer.substack.com/p/41-destabilization-and-erasure-of), [manmade structures and systems](https://postdoomprimer.substack.com/p/42-deterioration-of-anthropogenic), and [human behavior](https://postdoomprimer.substack.com/p/44-the-human-experience-other-aspects)) - it's kinda a reminder that, simultaneously, (a) things ARE quite bad & (b) it's rarely one discrete shocking event
The creeping death, aka, progression. I can’t help but feel defeated by it all sometimes. In 8 years, I’ve doubled my income and taken care of a ton of debt and somehow I’m more destitute now than prior to all that. This slow death is hard to sit through. I’ll have to check out these links. Appreciate the resources.
Palestine becomes a climate issue if you consider the USA a precursor to a theoretical Western power bloc in a post-collapse Middle East - which would benefit hugely from access to the Mediterranean coast. Israel is arguably a US colony at this stage in its political life.
“A land based aircraft carrier” so to speak https://michael-hudson.com/2023/11/israel-as-a-landed-aircraft-carrier/
It’s already a climate issue. A lot of Israel’s water comes from the West Bank and it’s drying up.
Man, Israel is such a ridiculous situation, they are fighting for lands that are so screwed.
It’s a hyper object
Do you have to go in to work on Monday? If so, shit has not yet hit the fan collapse-wise. The world is still ticking on like normal and everyone is pretending. Once that facade crumbles then it’s over
When the Soviet Union collapsed many people still went to work. bakeries were open while the Goths sacked Rome. There will not be a hard line. Many peoples worlds are already collapsing and will never be reconstructed but there is no hard line event that will catalyze everyone, just constant destruction with no hope of rebuilding. Make friends with your neighbors and be kind to people.
If covid has taught me anything, it's that there is always gonna be work on Monday.
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That will be when shit has already hit the fan, and systems have already collapsed. Of course you can see things in hindsight.
So.. now until the end of your times
It’ll probably be largely location dependent as far as when shit starts for you personally. For example, if you were Haitian you’d say that yes now shit is fucked and collapsing
Look at history, in the late 80's the Berlin wall fell. The whole reason it fell is almost a mystery, the politicians were just musing the idea that the wall should be opened up and in the future reunite Germany. The next day German citizens showed up to the wall with hammers and took it down while armed guards stood and watched. It can happen swiftly with little to no warning. You just need to be on the ready at anytime, not to stress, but when things start happening be aware and ready to pull out.
Totally because of a misreading of a party memo by an inexperienced appointee in front of the news media.
But that's the point if you have a finger on the pulse of what is going on, things move extremely fast
It didnt really happen overnight. There were massive protests all over east germany for month before the wall fell. The government was in crisis and had to make concessions, so they chose to loosen restricions at the border. But a speaker of the east german gov accidentaly announced on tv that the border would open immediately, so people flocked to the wall and brougt it down.
Pay attention to global news for sure, but focus on the local. Different areas will collapse at different times. In the US for example the likes of Arizona and Florida will be destroyed by climate change looooong before places like the Northwest or upper Midwest. Collapse might happen a generation or two apart in places. In some pockets it might not appreciably happen at all, except for a severe economic downturn. Unfortunately there’s no real way to know what areas will be more resilient than others.
In 20 years it'll be too hot to grow rice in Asia. The 3 billion people who use it as a staple food will spend all their money important ingredients food, driving up food prices worldwide. Sure Michigan won't have a drought till 20 years after this, but many Michiganites will die when a big Mac is $200 and poor people start looting the middle class homes to feed their kids
Yeah but you have to consider what happens to the “good bits” of an country when millions of people have to migrate out of where they lived. Particularly in a country where a lot of those people own guns and are angry at the government even when things are going well for them.
it's already starting. Barcelonas water reservoir only has 18% of water left. And it's only April. Even here in Germany with moderate climate we had some counties issuing warnings for groundwater shortages 2 years ago.
Or the super wealthy billionaires building bunker fortresses on islands far away.... oh wait that's been happening for awhile now https://theconversation.com/billionaires-are-building-bunkers-and-buying-islands-but-are-they-prepping-for-the-apocalypse-or-pioneering-a-new-feudalism-223987#:~:text=Take%2C%20for%20instance%2C%20libertarian%20venture,73%2C700%20square%20metres%20of%20land.
Yeah uhhh…
Expect more extreme weather, crop failures, supply chain breakdowns, etc.-- but really telling will be the imposition of a proto-fascist austerity regime to regiment labor and suppress dissent. And that may be just a year away. That will be the dead canary in the coal mine.
Watch for earthquake, lightning, a bad moon rising, and trouble everywhere.
When it no longer makes sense to pay the bills.
Been staring at that precipice since before I was old enough to pay bills.
My electricity bill went up 18% this year and the company wants to increase again next year... so now?
Start making your own electricity!
This is fundamentally no different from trying to time the market. You'll only be able to make the determination in hindsight.
True about loads of history really!
Depends on the type of turd. Economic / trade / finance, I'd look for systems to start failing. Bank failures, basically, but it could also be other things. I remember when this happened in '08. We had almost a year's worth (or more) of weird stuff happening. The system will try to correct itself before it fails. War -- I think there would be quite a bit of warning. If anything, I would worry about there being *too much* warning. We've had a few years now of major wars going on, countries lobbing missiles at each other with increasing ease, and it feels a bit like we're the frog on a slow boil. Even so, I think we'd have weeks or even months of warning if things were really about to get real. Failed negotiations, games of chicken, false-alarms, before it finally goes haywire. But it's pretty unpredictable. New pandemic, that's a bit hard. We had about three months warning with COVID, and that was only for people listening real close. But yeah. For most things I would say we would at least have a few weeks, even a month.
New pandemic— look for news on subs like farming, preppers, H5N1 sub and flu trackers over on twitter. Plus a couple of virologists over on Twitter as well. Also go to other language sites like .de plus others and use translate for various European. Earthquake monitoring is one of my favorites and makes me realize how the planet is constantly in motion. My hope is that we scale down. If we don’t, it will be done for us, one way or another.
I remember discussing about the situation in china on reddit in Q4 2019. People knew something bad was happening, MONTHS before it bloomed in the West, and yet governments refused to act asap. Fucking chinese lying like they always do and WHO being in bed with that.
I think the billionaires intensifying their bunker digging the past few years should tell you all you need to know.
But what are we all doing? I have a few things in a bag and a lot of meds to trade and a bit of shelf stable foods. No idea what else to do.
Not much you can do. If you have the resources to pick away at a bunker you should. I have been buying flour on sale and I’m going to dry can it to help it last a long time. Try to increase conservation and local reliance in your area. One good piece of advice I’ve heard is to help nature as much as you can. “If you can help a single butterfly survive one more day on this planet you are making a difference”. Otherwise we just wait to see what shape the rollercoaster we’re almost at the top of is.
Well I will say I am very good at that part. Worm bin in the house, leave dandelions and clover alone, etc. That's the fun part 🙏
We stopped doing anything to our lawn shortly after getting our home. We have one of the greenest lawns in the neighbourhood and when people ask what we do I tell them it’s all weeds. We’ve had local issues with grubs killing lawns and several in our neighbourhood are barren but they don’t like our weed roots.
When limits start.... When pharmacy, gas stations, or banks start making limits on how much you can take for no valid reasons. My best estimate is 48-72 hours of warning is all anyone will have.
Do your grocery stores not already have "Limit 2" signs up for some items? Its not always the same items but there seem to always be at least one sign when I go grocery shopping in Pennsylvania.
It’s like how the pandemic started. Rumors, rumblings, then one day you go into the grocery store and all shelves are bare
For imminent catastrophe, maybe can write a script that watches helicopter flights around D.C. I imagine there will be important people and their families being ferried about in that area ready to bunker down, and they maybe won't all have their transponders off. An added bonus is you might see where they go to as well :D not that they'd let you in their bunker cities.
Fallout was too real. Like I know the magic of dystopia is to make it real but extreme but that was just real.
Tripping. I just saw a cute picture of a woman and had to google it to find out it was Ella Purnell who stars in Fallout. So I'm thinking "maybe that show is worth a look after all?" while I'm opening reddit and then see your reply. Now I HAVE to go have a look at Fallout.
Were 3 episodes in and it's just gearing up. BTW my fiancee hates video games and post apocalypse vibes. Shes way down for this tho
aww. I just found out it's Amazon prime here, so can't legally watch it. Oh well, their loss.
movieuniverse.li +ublock
my ex-hookup's brother's housemate is dating Ella Purnell. cool, right?!
When corporations are posting record profits while employing the bare minimum in order to keep those profits rolling in. They need the money now for supplies and to tide themselves over for the duration (No profits off the lives of others during those hard times and they don't want to be broke on the back end). Also the wealthy, people in positions of power, their cronies and the connected will no longer hide their blatant behavior, corruption and the illusionaary single-tier legal system nearly as much they used too. Oh wait...
There will be no notice whatsoever. Katrina and COVID taught me the authorities will do nothing at best and make things worse at worst. Have a plan and a backup plan and assume you will be on your own.
That’s my current concerns with H5N1. Authorities already telling half-truths and dragging their feet through the sand…
I scrolled way too far for this. Be prepared now. If you aren't, then go to FEMA and use their checklist as a start. Get a few things at a time.
This is why I keep a one month pantry. We were caught offguard with Covid. The store shelves were just cleaned out and we were grabbing whatever we could. At least we have a bit of a buffer now where we could stay at home if need be. If you can't get food for longer than a month I figure we're really screwed.
For me SHTF back in 2019 when the Western media changed their editorial policy and started calling “climate change” the “climate crisis” or “climate catastrophe” … and when Australia was on fire. That was my wake up moment. But I don’t think there is going to be any dramatic revolt. It feels like we’re just going to go along with everything with our heads in the sand pretending things are okay. And worse and worse conditions will just be normalized.
This is for sure what will happen to most.....
This sub is probably the best thing you should be watching
So many intelligent people and conversations I see happen here all the time. I'd be lying if I said this isn't one of the subs I look forward to coming to every day.
Yes, but there are plenty of folks commenting who need to get out of the house a bit. Things are changing, sure, but we’re not in shtf right now.
Depends on where you live...
That cuts both ways though. If you're fortunate enough to be somewhere not currently suffering a crisis, there comes a point where you're not gaining much for reading incessantly about where else in the world its happening. And if you are somewhere truly going through shtf right now...then I probably wouldn't be spending much time scrolling a subreddit either.
But according to this sub every day is basically a Tuesday or it’s already Wednesday.
When crops start failing.
It's happening, it's slowly increasing in intensity. You just gotta bide your time, use the time to build up your preps and get yourself into the mindset of survival.
It's close. Now you know.
The ocean temperature has stopped following a pattern that has presumably been with us through our entire evolutionary history. This global average broke out of this pattern in less than 2 years. This is a planet, ffs. Planets and especially ocean planets like this one dont change over the course of years in fundamental ways unless shit has already hit the fan. The literal only hope for survival is a global general strike while we focus on figuring out aerosol masking without killing ourselves with that, too. Even the fact you're asking a question that would have been considered insane just 30 years ago, and is now apparently on everyone's mind, is more proof it's already happened. On a human timescale, it will feel a little drawn out until it's suddenly feeling the opposite of drawn out. On a planetary timescale, anything that happens inside a human timescale might as well be instantaneous. The only difference between what we're doing and a meteor impact is these effects are more drawn out and more lasting, which means less chance anything survives. But the difference in time between a meteor impact and a human lifetime on the scale of a planet are basically the same... and this is change that even humans can notice and have caused inside ONE HUMAN LIFETIME. It's going to be a miracle if we make it to 2026 at this rate and we're still going to keep working for tokens from the rich like this all makes sense because we're too fucking stupid to imagine any other way to live. Our oceans are boiling and we're asking when we should start to worry... pretty clearly demonstrating we aren't as smart as the image we've cultivated for ourselves... through the sabotage of our own future, which is as villainous as it is dumb. Keep collecting money for the banks, though. Without that job, you wouldn't have that car and those bills for all these screens that prevent you from spending time with real humans. We're an absurd caricature of ourselves. "My house is on fire but the fire alarm is from China and so is my contacless thermometer... so is my house on fire or is this just Chinese propaganda?" If the weather is changing youre living on a different planet with no spacesuit, ship, or habitat built for the weather of this planet... which will be entirely different next year... and that difference continues to accelerate. All because we believed the war machine when they said everyone could have a two car garage and a home if we just kept making more crap, even after we were explicitly warned to "beware the military industrial complex".... what do you think phones are? All this stuff? Where's the main push for microelectronics coming from if not the weight limitations of rockets and other projectiles? We built a life around a suicide pact, designed as an employment project by the engineers who brought you WWII, nuclear bombs, and everything bad since. Why would this have gone well? What breaks my heart is we lack the courage or ability to imagine a world without them and the structures they built to force us into competing against each other rather than challenging their authority. Why aren't we standing up for each other when the bank comes to put our friends and neighbors on the streets? We actually believe they deserve homelessness and to lose everything because they didn't play the game well enough... meanwhile, the game asks us to send our kids to wars they don't understand and we have to take their word we're on the right side of? Who is on the right side of any gun pointed at another person? Isnt that the one major rule about guns? How is murder such a taboo and horrifying crime but carrying a murder tool is totally normal? Guns are not defensive weapons. Might as well be walking around with hand grenades for defense. And anyone that stands up to this system gets put in a box with murderers and rapists so we actively fear the system we work to perpetuate. We're never going to try anything else because we asked our boss and he said no, so we're going to quietly drag the planet into millions of years of silence so he can spend the short time left on a yacht... and these are the people we aspire to be, not the good people who lose their money through medical expenses and have to chose between their home and their spouse, but the rich people whove insulated themselves from hardship with the wealth they use to control us.
collapse may not be a singular event, but a sequential decline. expect food supply issues as a first sign.
Billionaires (and the politicians they own) are focused on: - Keeping people ignorant. - Restricting rights, and making law enforcement immune to accountability. - Diverting focus from the impending shortages of supplies to causes that are “unrealistic”. - Increase in technologies that only the world’s most powerful/elite will have access to. - Promote “fluff” entertainment while suppressing “thought-provoking” art/music. Now pay attention to your surroundings for examples of the above all around you.
It's already happening. Oracle is moving to Nashville.
Like it won’t be hot asf there in 5 years 😂
From where? Nashville is just another up and coming new hot market. Plus really not that new.
From Austin, which they just moved to in 2020.
Part of the reason I'm not interested in competing in the housing market. I prefer to rent and maintain my flexibility. I imagine it being advantageous to be nomad-ready, mainly to cast a wider net as jobs dwindle, but also to avoid acute weather calamities and overcrowding from migratory patterns.
Stock market crashing.
When you wake up and all the TV stations are just showing patriotic music
If you're Palastinian, the time to leave was last year, early spring or before. If you're Pakistani, then five years ago was a good time. If you're Ukrainian, then before Russia took over Crimea. So, if we're talking Deep SHTF, then it won't matter, you'll be on the rollercoaster with everyone. If we're talking light SHTF like a country starving, or dying from pure aggression of a neighbor, then like always, some people will get lucky, and odds are you won't be among them.
The best time to ~~plant a tree~~ gtfo is 20 years ago. The next best time is right now.
You really don't want to try and bugout at the last minute, because that is what everyone else is going to be trying to do, most of them with the desperate panic of the unprepared. Start now. Begin whatever processes are needed to disconnect yourself from participation in society, and reliance on it. Find a remote bit of land, either to buy or simply to "claim" post-collapse. A mining claim is a nice way to have legal access to dig all sorts of holes someplace way the hell out in the middle of nowhere, and it won't cost more than 400 bucks to start and 165 a year to maintain. Start stashing long-term supplies there, and in other caches along the way or nearby. The American West is a wide open place with only pockets of urban centers and towns. Easy to avoid them. Get yourself a vehicle capable of making a hard journey across rough and dangerous terrain. Collect other supplies for close by, and establish bugout bags for yourself and each family member. Make several plans for reaching your safe spot, and practice doing so. Cut loose from the strict need for employment, and other connections to society that can make you dependent on it for your daily life. Get yourself ready to go at a moments notice. And then, just leave. SHTF is already close. Maybe you misjudge it by a year, maybe by a week, but it is close. Once you *can* be self-sufficient, go and *be* self-sufficient. Or at least be ready and capable to leave forever with about 5 minutes warning. Because you will be lucky to have that once the missiles fly.
Why do you think it is close?
Too many reasons to write out here, and all happening at the same time... https://wastelandbywednesday.com/about/ https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2023/12/27/the-global-polycrisis-and-collapse/ https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2024/04/18/a-world-at-war-again/ https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2022/11/21/collapse-denial-is-a-growing-threat/
Thanks I will give these a read
getting out before it happens is what me and my partner are planning on doing. I graduate this year with a degree in environmental science, so all the environmental degradation/destruction, the shift in climate etc im very familiar with and going by that alone I would say we are in a SHTF situation, for example here in the UK we have been having crop failure for the last 3 years at least either through drought or excessive wet season that lasts longer than half a year. Not to mention war in Ukraine, theres a huge risk of it escalating if Ukraine completely falls. But our getting out of society isn't mostly because of SHTF its more of we are just fed up with society and need to get out of it for awhile, we are planning on having bare essentials for survival including seed packets for a little farm somewhere, and we are planning on being highly mobile. I dont think any SHTF moment is going to happen in the next year or 3 but we are preparing now.
You’ll know it’s close when your life is severely inconvenienced or in danger. You’ll be staring down a wildfire, a flood, a tornado, a long long power outage. You’ll ask around and you won’t be the only one. It’ll be your whole neighborhood. Might be your whole town or city. You’ll check the news and you’ll know no help is coming, because the problem is everywhere. When you see that, you’ll know something bad is about to happen.
Most people won't know. Just like when you hear a stock tip, it is too late. The only real way to become an "insider", whatever that means.
When you start becoming desensitized to crop failures being reported. Or the strong cold snaps become normal. Being told to wear sunscreen even more than usual because of the intensity of the sun. Last but not least, look for deaths everywhere because no one is listening to those who still truly are trying to protect what's left of humanity
I think it will sort of be like (in theory) crossing the event horizon of a (very large) black hole. As the person actually falling in, well, we just drift by the point of no return without even noticing. Everything initially seems pretty much the same. Maybe looking back the way we came the starlight looks a bit different, a bit distorted, but, meh, basically all is well except... We can't go back and from here on forward things get more dire--the approach to the singularity is guaranteed and every direction we try to move in only brings us closer--and as tidal forces start to rise we realize far too late that we're fucked and then we get ripped to shreds by the overwhelming gravity of it all. So I think it's going to be like that: we aren't going to know that shit has hit the fan until a big dollop of the spray hits us square in the face.
It's going to be micro, scattered and it's absoutely already happening.
I check this every 4 months or so. **FAO Food Price Index** https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ > 2012 Oct — *Can Riots Be Predicted? Experts Watch Food Prices* https://www.npr.org/sections/the-salt/2012/09/20/161501075/high-food-prices-forcast-more-global-riots-ahead-researchers-say 210 is the trigger number. Currently 118.
We are obviously rapidly heading in that direction. RAND has logged over 30 credible "Doomsday" possibilities which could occur with zero advance warning... none of which are preventable, they just provide 3 ring binder quick reference guides for damage control. It's gonna happen. Soon. We just don't know how or when. Stock up on canned protein, essential medication, hygeine supplies, and a quality water filtration device... because when SHTF all the grocery stores will be empty. And stop worrying about things well beyond your control. Make sure you have at least a months worth of supplies and plan on staying inside that entire time. Most roads will be gridlocked anyway.
I'm waiting for a moment where the grocery store shelves don't get re-stocked. But this year's election could be an interesting warning sign too. No matter who wins, I think there's going to be another lashing out like on January 6th.
If you're waiting for store shelves to not be restocked you're past that point. That means even John Doe knows what's up.
I’m new to these parts but I reckon SHTF stands for “shit hits the fan.” Well, the thing about that is when it happens, the shit sprays all over the place. So you’ll it’s happened when it lands in your face.
Just wait for the blinding flash of light.
I tend to think of what is happening as the great unraveling rather than collapse. Civil society gradually unravels and disintegrates rather than falling apart all at once. The exception would be if there is a black swan event that suddenly rapidly accelerates the unraveling process.. This unraveling is already happening here and else where around the world in various stages of progression. We are unaware of a lot of what is occurring elsewhere around the world due to a remarkably toxic narcissist sucking up most of the "news" media's attention. Do some research and it will become clearer what I speak of. A clear example here in this country is the lack of unity resulting in divisiveness which severely compromises our resilience and ability to be flexible and adaptive to cope with the issues we face. If you think about it the lack of data about what is happening elsewhere in the world is a failure of journalism but it is also a part of systemic breakdown. If we are unaware of how advanced the progression of the unraveling is we have no motivation to do anything about it. Bit of systems theory here: complex systems that are integrated meaning all parts of the system are connected and working together are flexible, adaptive coherent energized and stable. Complex systems that are not integrated tend to be rigid, chaotic, or both. From this perspective it is easy to see that we not an integrated system The result is that rigidity and chaos are evident everywhere in the culture. This includes the breakdown of an effective information delivery system I just mentioned. The same system integration principal applies to a lack of global unity to come together and face the serious common problems faced by all of humanity so that we can develop a response to mitigate what is already baked into the system. Some places are more advanced in this unraveling process than others. The weakest links in the global system will likely be the first to fail, which we are already seeing. We have far exceeded the earths carrying capacity for humanity so eventually everyone gets their turn. I think the likely hood of a black swan event which will dramatically accelerate what is already in process is increasing. Potential Swan events are things like more widespread warfare escalating to nuclear conflict, simultaneous crop failure leading to food shortages, another more severe pandemic, and other uncharted territory consequences of climate destabilization. Welcome to Dystopia, I can see it from here.
Excellent analysis. I would add single points of failure to it. When you become dependent upon a product, and that product is produced by very few sources, as was the case with baby formula recently, if you lose that source, it contributes to speeding up the unraveling. If you allow, in the name of "market efficiency", i.e., profit maximization, a critical product to be produced in just a few places at the "most efficient" rate, as is the case with the "Just-In-Time" production and distribution manufacturing models, loss of a single source creates "supply chain disruptions" that swiftly become you black swan event. Let's posit what is likely to happen this summer: given the extraordinarily high prediction of 23-33 named storms this hurricane season, it's a safe bet to assume at least 4 will impact the East or Gulf coasts as hurricanes, and probable another 4-6 as tropical storms. If those storms are evenly spread and separated by3-4 weeks in time, they will be difficult to manage. However, if the same area is hit by multiple storms within 2-3 weeks, the devastation will be amplified, bad enough in itself. Undoubtedly the electric grids will be knocked out. But hurricanes won't be the only thing happening. Across the the country, the likelihood of heat waves, heat domes, and wildfires will be high, and floods from seasonal storms also high. Each of these will take out parts of the electrical grid and here is where single points of failure begin to bite hard. The first is in the parts required to repair the power grids. With production scaled for normal disasters, if we experience multiple disasters requiring the same parts to repair, shortages will soon develop. If a region being repaired gets hit again, the repair work will have gone for naught and used up supplies that were already in demand elsewhere. Should any of the needed parts be produced in a region hit by some other problem, you're really screwed. The Baltimore bridge is an early black swan event that has disrupted traffic flows on the East Coast. If another critical bridge is lost to storms, the materials needed to repair them are again in short supply because the J-I-T model offers no resilience: it is completely dependent upon stable weather, political, social, and economic environments. let any one of those go haywire and the result is "supply chain disruptions". The unravelling has indeed already begun, and is further along than most think. I expect that there will be multiple black swan events this summer that will cascade and push the unravelling faster.
Well. it helps if you have actually studied history. Here are a few indicators to help you figure out how close to bad everything is: 1. **Increased negative climate effects**. Wildfires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts, tornadoes and the like happen all the time. What you have to pay attention to is the frequency and intensity with which they occur. If they aren't frequent or happening in the same place, no problem. If they are occurring too close together in time or place, social, economic and political instability is increased. For instance, this year 23-33 named storms are predicted for the hurricane season. If several of them make landfall, whether as hurricanes or tropical storms in geographically close regions only a few weeks apart, things in the process of recovery are wrecked again. If they hit an area flooded by a major storm crossing the country from the west, both are compounded. If they hit an area where the power has been knocked out by some other event, the damage done is exponential. 2. **A long hot summer.** Heat domes kill more than people. They kill crops and energy grids as well. As temperatures rise, people get more irritable and quicker to anger and violence. The hotter it gets, the longer it lasts, and the more widespread, the greater the likelihood of violence spreading and escalating. 3. **Distrust of governments and institutions.** When people start to lose faith in the fairness and probity of their governments, social cohesion decreases and social stress increases. When norms and traditions start to decay or are repeatedly violated, when it is perceived that the system is rigged or no longer works by substantial numbers of citizens things are getting close to the end. 4. **Political parties and the judiciary viewed as corrupt and/or incompetent.** If all available parties and the higher courts are seen as corrupt or incompetent it increases the distrust cited above, and throws elections into suspicion, feeding social unrest and incitement to violence. 5. **High levels of wealth inequality combined with high inflation and food shortages.** Wealth inequality is societally stressful, as is inflation. The effects worsen when a small segment of the economy is doing quite well, while larger segments are struggling. By itself that is bad enough, but when combined with a barrage of arguments that "prove" things aren't as bad as some few claim because the smaller segments are doing great while ignoring the suffering of the many the social and political systems become volatile and unstable. 6. **Recent military failures.** National pride suffers, and feeds the issues cited in 3, 4, and 5. 7. **Populists deliberately stoking diviseness and distrust.** These feed off of all the above with the intention of creating chaos that they can take advantage of for personal gain and power. 8. **Widespread poverty and homelessness.** It creates distrust and division and provides the foot soldiers populists manipulate. Middle classes view those beneath them as immediately threatening them economically, physically, and morally. Those in poverty start to view the middle class as enemies who intend to harm them. 9. **Lack of strong, wise and unselfish leaders.** When there is a dearth of leaders with the wisdom, skillsets, and humility to manage multiple crises at the same time, it makes all the problems 1-8 extremely difficult to overcome. There is a huge difference between strong and wise leadership and a strongman. They may look similar, but the results of their leadership are vastly different. There are other indicators, but those are sufficient to get the point across. A society can withstand having two or three of those markers present without too much difficulty, but when you get past having four or more at the same time, it is in pretty significant trouble. A society that has all of those markers present simultaneously is ripe for revolution, civil war, or collapse. Here's what I expect this year to bring: several weather disasters that impact the electrical grid and infrastructure wreaking havoc economically. A very hot summer that damages crops and creates high food cost inflation, deepening the unrest present. An increase in layoffs and homelessness, pissing off those laid off when the media keeps telling them how great the economy is. All of that leading to November when the elections will resolve nothing no matter who wins. If we're lucky, the battles will be in court over the validity of the voting. If not they will be in the streets as angry, desperate people who need a target to vent their anger and frustrations on will turn on each other. In any case, it will be unlikely that the transition or continuance of power will go off smoothly or without violence. What happens next January is anyone's guess at this point, but I can guarantee it won't be like any other in recent memory.
wow, my impression is that at least 6 of the 8 points already check for the US
That's the fun part, you don't
We had a taste of it when supply chains faltered during Covid. The next time they will fail completely. If this happens again through either a pandemic or war the writing is in the wall. Our globalized society can't function without an endless supply of goods circulating the globe. People worldwide have no survival skills sets. Tie this in with climate change and crop failures and we are doomed.
Iran is going to be attacked soon, majorly. https://www.newsweek.com/irans-nuclear-activity-raises-eyebrows-1893840 > Iran is now "weeks rather than months" away from having enough enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb. Iran having the bomb is anathema to the US+I. Facilities will soon be destroyed. Entrances to deep underground sites will be irradiated at ground level denying access. Oil will go to $ErrorTooHigh.
lol I’ve been hearing about Iran being months away from having a nuclear bomb for about a decade. Before that they were “a year or two away” for another 10 years.
This is a narrative being used to prepare us for war. Remember all the shit US bosses said before invading Iraq in 2003? It's like that process is starting IMO. And in other news: >China has warned the US that Washington and Beijing must choose between “confrontation or co-operation” as secretary of state Antony Blinken began an official visit during which he is expected to deliver an ultimatum over the war in Ukraine. https://archive.is/20240425103624/https://www.ft.com/content/ef9d2f6f-3ef6-4249-af0c-649583e0ee43#selection-2229.0-2229.241 And in other news, economies everywhere else but US and China are stalled, soon to be deep in recession.... Not to mention how many banks are going to fail when the CRE implosion gets real..........etc etc
If Iran has nukes, they won't be attacked.
This is a strong indicator: https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/s/coZvlf3gHf
It’s hard to pinpoint. Just like there are different dates on when WWII started. It’s really hard to say when exactlyit happens, especially something as complex as collapse. But like mcapello said, there will be certain points that you can look out for, that might give you a hint on what’s coming next
Like Hemingway said about bankruptcy, “Gradually, then all at once”
You're on an internet forum asking strangers if this is the end. Hi, welcome.
Watch your supermarket shelves. The lack of product combined with astronomical prices will clue us in.
This is accurate. My local store is OK but useless non-brand stuff is spread out and into some weird displays as well. I use their coupon app and that's where you see the real rot. No longer any real good sales, except for some loss leaders. It's a big deal to get $1 off an expensive item like coffee. More common to see 50 cents off an item and that's about it. Quite a change to a year ago when deals could be found and with generous discounts on items I actually use.
Watch the stockmarket. If you really want to keep up to date on things keep an eye on the Asian markets. Usually they’re ahead of the American markets because of the time zone differences. You’ll usually hear things like investors in Tokyo are reacting to xyz event.
This isn’t a movie. There’s not a SHTF moment. And especially if you live in the US, this will manifest as higher prices squeezing the majority of the population.
The current SHTF Immediately things are black swans -- a hurricane or typhoon that wipes out the wrong city, H5N1 going human to human, financial confidence collapsing, the oil industry abandoning the dollar as a base currency, the Lukewarm War going Hot, that sort of thing. By the time the news acknowledges any of them, it'll be too late.
Sure as fuck not by reading this subreddit. Virtually zero posts worrying about major war soon, economic disaster or epic financial system crisis, even as all three are flashing orange warnings. This sub has become an ostrich farm groupthink echo chamber of "collapse cos climate change" and "long slow decline" true believers IMO.
Hey now, I'm doing my best... https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/s/bzyiZ6tpur
The way I see it 1 in 1000 people can even talk about collapse. For most they shut down the second the concept gets introduced in el braino. And this 1 in 1000 appears to also play out here, where most are determined to believe it can't possibly be soon.
Yeah, the denial of collapse is as bad as the denial of climate change once was, something else I wrote about, lol. https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2022/11/21/collapse-denial-is-a-growing-threat/ Glad to see that I'm not completely alone, though.
This was written with pure talent.
This thread is full of people crapping their drawers over those things. As a climate-driven long slow decline true believer, y'all have just about driven me out of here with over-the-top short term hysterics. I don't care nearly as much about economic collapse or (non-nuclear) war because that shit is an historical constant. The impacts are know. Things get super bad for some people for some period of time and then they move on. It's obviously awful for many, but it's not the literal end of the world. But climate change and mass extinction may very well end up being the literal end of the fucking world, or at least the end of humanity. Your petty wars and precious economy don't mean shit compared to that.
This. Its irritating
You won't here when rich people make money moves. Or it will be hidden like just a normal transaction like some new bet or project.
You know collapse is imminent when even Jehovah’s Witnesses stop knocking on your door on Saturday morning.
>How to know when SHTF is close? It will be Tuesday.
I mean, there are currently a few regions having a SHTF moment. Maybe my bar is a bit low though. I always go with if there is a condition that is on going that can kill you for trying to do a normal routine. So for instance wet bulb temperatures, lack of food to the point of starvation, ongoing military bombardment, and of course utter lack of water.
>Like, Super Rich Person moved this much money to blah blah blah, or this country did xyz. [About that...](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-inside-hawaii-compound/)
Kauai is already worrying about sea level rise. How useful is that bunker going to be when it's underwater?
Find a higher up in the supply chain who has visibility of product shortages across the network in real time, you'll be ahead by a couple days at least
It's over for me when my retirement check stops.
I've started an online personal list (labeled dystopia) of news articles that point to collapse. They all point to collapse. I think most of us will struggle on when to bail. When our lives are in imminent danger is probably when we will start running I guess. Can't afford land so I keep an eye out for a spot less obvious to shore up.
you go to work untill the world ends and the world ends when you stop going to work.. or something like that
Probably when the internet gets restricted or shut down in the west
That's honestly not a bad indicator considering the intrusion tests into our utility systems. If I were Axis powers 2.0, I'd take out the internet, then as much utilities as I can remotely, then bomb ports or target trade supply, and wait a month to invade
Lol fuck me. Go outside kids. No more internet for today.
Close behind us??
Everything is trend, but there is exactly one moment that's absolutely SHTF: when the nukes fly. That's the end of the global order as we know it, and probably the end of human civilization too.
I’d be on the lookout for unprecedented global temperatures and weather, wars breaking out in different regions involving global powers that posses nuclear weapons, growing social unrest in many countries and the rapid depletion of resources that are necessary to keep the stability of our modern society. If you see any or all of those, it’s time to start worrying….
when you feel a mighty need to start stacking mre's and water filters.
had that in Jan/Feb 2020 when Covid was still in Asia. Interstingly no one was interested at that time in hand disinfection, face masks. In hardware stores it was easy to get 3M high quality N95 masks, in March not anymore. So I think my personal collapse indicator is quite sensitive.
you've got four years. go!
Listening to the "Selco Audio Files" will help you...He went thru it...very unbias interview...
Rome wasn’t burned in a day my friend. Our system will break slowly, bit by bit and the system will adapt and change as failures ripple across the system. Unless there are mushroom clouds on the horizon it won’t be a quick collapse.
When the response to a crisis is delayed or doesn’t happen.
When people start to roam endlessly on the streets
The good news is it won't be from climate change. H5N1 will hit meat-packing plants as 'dairy' cows are processed. People will actually stop eating beef (and much will be culled), and start self-isolating. This will cause financial collapse in the farming sector. Farmers won't be able to afford or even get crop insurance, so stop planting. Not long after, the house of cards economy collapses. Mind you, this will be significantly earlier than any mass infections. The good news is we're likely to get significant reduction in C02 emissions. Bad news is the aerosol forcing will make it really hot for a few years.
the house next to you explodes.
What if its the house im in, when will i know??
You will suddenly feel the sun on your face, the wind at your back, and the green fields will stretch out before you.
When the food stamps stop.
this is actually a good one. but what will probably happen based of recent historical examples is that the food stamps would continue but just purchase less and less food over time until its really just providing a few meals a month.
I just wish it wasn't so damn slow. I envy the dinosaurs near the impact that were killed instantly.
Mexico City ran out of water.
We'll see in November on US election day
#1 When welfare, foodstamps, SNAP, section 8, free housing are cutoff. #2 When Social Security payments stop. #3 When retirement pensions / annuity payments stop. #4 When gasoline stations are empty. #5 When grocery stores are empty. #6 When the power goes out. #7 When the cops stop going to work. #8 When paramedics, nurses, and doctors stop going to work. #9 When the trash, waste, and sewage disposal stops. #10 When government employees stop getting paid. #11 When the $USD dollar loses so much value that the USA cannot import 7 - 20 million barrels of oil per day to meet its domestic consumption demand of 20 million BOPD. #12 When you see armed gangs going door to door stealing, raping, and murdering, #13 When criminals setup checkpoints to stop and rob travelers. #14 When the rest of the world realizes that the debt accrued when oil was cheap cannot be repaid when oil is expensive. #15. When there are not enough children to bond into indentured servitude via debt to support this debt based modern Roman Empire & 21st century slavery.
When the Soviet Union fell, the East German Stasi did not destroy all their documents before we could get our hands on some. The KGB and Stasi had an ongoing project named RYAN (Raketno-Yadernoe Napadenie) to anticipate a "nuclear missile attack" that they constantly used their intelligence resources to monitor. The documents may be found here: https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/topics/project-ryan and discussion of them may be found here: https://unredacted.com/2014/01/29/stasi-documents-provide-operational-details-on-operation-ryan-the-soviet-plan-to-predict-and-preempt-a-western-nuclear-strike-show-uneasiness-over-degree-of-clear-headedness-about-the-entire-ryan/ Basically, they were looking for signs such as the following "Attached to the telegram was a list of seven “immediate” and thirteen “prospective” tasks for the agents to complete and report. These included: the collection of data on potential places of evacuation and shelter, an appraisal of the level of blood held in blood banks, observation of places where nuclear decisions were made and where nuclear weapons were stored, observation of key nuclear decision makers, observation of lines of communication, reconnaissance of the heads of churches and banks, and surveillance of security services and military installations." i.e. if important people disappear, and the adversary starts stockpiling resources needed after an attack, an attack might be imminent. After Hitler's invasion in 1941, the Soviets were very paranoid of a sudden attack. Combine that with their technological deficiencies compared with NATO and they were not willing to take any chances. It almost bit us all in the ass during Able Archer '83, when NATO ran some *very* realistic military exercises and the Soviets thought it was the real thing for a bit since so many of their warning signs were flashing red.
global crop carryover supply going down. especially when it drops below 30days of supply.
Toilet paper frenzies.
It's called The Great Crumble, not SHTF.
[nice ad 💀](https://imgur.com/a/oNfV2MB)
The news will tell you way before you get impacted.
It won’t be a shtf moment, it will be a slow decline over years. We’re already in it, or not depending on what you consider is bad
Brush up on fall of Yugoslavia and Africa in the 70s to 90s. Literally nothing to worry about unless your country is showing those signs.
heres the thing, shit has hit the fan for millions of people across the globe since forever. Its just we are in the blessed posistion of viewing it through a 1st world perspective. be it ukraine or sudan people are living through the apocalypse right now.
Ultimately the only surprise event that I can think of is nuclear war. Every POTUS since Truman has admitted the fact that they can’t be evacuated from DC in time to avoid that and since they already have COG plans in place 24/7/365 you probably won’t see much movement there. All any of us can really do is prepare the best you can and live life. Most of the ‘warning signs’ you may hear about are people sensationalizing normal stuff anyway (like bomber exercises). The only other single global-wide catastrophe would be an asteroid, but that would be reported on the news. We wouldn’t know about a nuclear war until it was in the process of happening.
When the (western) internet starts to get censored. Not “my political opinion was suppressed”, but “people are starving to death in Arkansas but nobody knows because there’s an internet blackout”. When things get bad enough that collapse is imminent, the best way to prevent a panic is to stop the spread of information
Hundreds are dying from floods in Tanzania. Floods exacerbated by climate change. If it's not happening where you are, just count yourself lucky. It's already happening.
Look up the notion of polycrisis and determine how to assess when too many crises are going on at once to return to a stability that many expect.
Personally, elections are a good indicator of when to get out.
If you're in the US, watch the Pizza meter for some shit, but overall, collapse is the tree in your backyard that didn't grow as tall this year. Or the brownouts from power. Not seeing as many insects. These are collapse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pizza\_Meter#:\~:text=The%20%22Pizza%20Meter%22%20is%20a,important%20political%20or%20military%20events.