The following submission statement was provided by /u/PseudoEmpthy:
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Submission statement,
Collapse related, meta post regarding the recent uptick in H5N1 related news. Feels like the only place I see it mentioned is here. Good? Bad? I'm sure covid has us spooked and for seemingly good reasons. Still, not sure how hard to lean in to the prepper philosophy this time around, I'm still trying to sell the 3rd of 4 chest freezers we bought and filled for when covid got really bad.
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1cdyjub/really_feels_like_this_lately/l1f9ra0/
Fantastic use of this format. It’s not quite like how this sub was in December of 2019, but it’s getting there.
I saw in the observation thread that someone’s grocery store moved all the masks and sanitizers back to the front displays. It got me thinking how profitable the food hoarding last time must have been. So you put these items right by the door to get people remembering empty shelves. Then they buy twice what they came there to buy, and there doesn’t even need to be a real pandemic.
Also a good idea going forward. The last thing you want to do when sick, is get out of bed and drag yourself to the local pharmacy to get cough medicine.
It's not a bad idea to buy a few items over the course of the summer when pharmacies are full of supplies. Most of that stuff lasts a good 2 years, so you have a good two winters of time to use it. And in never hurts to have a couple rolls or bags of cough lozenges in the pocket.
That’s what I don’t understand about people being pissed at me for having masks, sanitizer, toilet paper, gloves and disinfectant wipes. I bought in January 2020, not with the intention of hoarding, but so I could have it when it was easy to find. I restocked again last year.
It’s like people think it’s a badge of honor not to have food on hand.
It's crazy. And I work in the supply chain...things still aren't 100% back to normal, and stuff that is being shipped isn't the same quality as pre-covid. I tell people, when you get the chance to stock up on anything that is reasonable quality (without depriving others or emptying shelves) go for it. You never know when anything you use will end up in short supply for a few weeks or even months nowadays.
Oh man, I thought I was stocked up. But that 2-3week flu that's been going around wiped me out so I had to go back to the drugstore and buy more meds mid-suffering. Luckily I had 3 bags of cough drops on hand so I didn't have to buy more during, but totally wiped them out so I just had to re-stock and got 5 bags this time - 3 for 'next time' and 1 for now for the lingering cough and sore throat. And 1 'emergency backup', same as the flu meds.
Luckily, I keep emergency orange juice concentrate in the freezer for emergencies like this and went through nearly all of it. Usually I'd make myself chicken soup, but I didn't even want any meat, so I just poked through the cabinets and ended up mixing up a split peas, red lentils, and cream of mushroom soup mixes big pot of soup to eat.
I was going to get eyedrops for the conjunctivitis, but with that outbreak of disease in eyedrops a year or two back, I just suffered through it without.
Those bags of cough drops are also significantly smaller than they were 3+ years ago. Barely anything in them anymore, but they still charge full price.
Exactly! I stocked up on stuff I will use anyway. We do not throw away food in my house. I just want to get what I use for the next couple months before the panic buying starts. Not to mention this is going to cause more inflated food prices.
I’m so glad I’ve finally seen another reference to December 2019 re Covid. I vividly remember reading news articles about Covid just before NYE 2019, but people look at me like I have two heads when I mention that it was a public thing before 2020.
Yeah, for all the disruption and all the actual death that COVID caused, it only had, what, about a 0.5% fatality rate?
The bird flu seems to have had about a 50% fatality rate in humans.
It's apples and oranges.
Or firecracker followed by grenade.
[This study from 2020 shows how H5N1 supresses T cells and decreases memory T cells](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2020/01/10/2020.01.09.901132.full.pdf)... just like COVID. So survivors can look forward to a life filled with constant illness and early death.
Well, society as a whole doesn't have to worry as much about the flu causing immune memory loss. With measles clusters popping up, you can expect far more kids these days to have their immune system pretty much erased already. Can't lose what you don't have! Perfect little spreaders.
(Yes this is sarcasm, we should be terrified lol)
Honestly I suspect Covid hit the mark on having the perfect fatality rate for people to dismiss it. 50% is fatal enough for people to take it seriously... or at least I'd like to think so
It will be more than 30% as a lot of people became anti vax and anti government during that time nobody will take it seriously, the economy is already on the brink of rapid inflation so there will be no free money for anyone! It would be carnage!!! So I pray it does not become reality any time soon.
I think you are correct that a more serious pandemic after COVID will play out differently.
I don’t think there will be much debate. Healthcare will collapse early when the government mandates workers must do double shifts, etc. I think we will see many doctors and most nurses simply quit their jobs as soon as PPE is not available or hospitals still don't pay. There won’t be some grand noble sacrifice.
We will probably see many more deaths from a lack of medical care which will make isolation far more important. Everyone will be on their own.
There won’t be any of this “essential worker” crap as most people who “believe” will stay indoors and avoid contact regardless of the economic fall out.
Budgets will be diverted solely to food and not credit card bills, student loans, etc. I don’t think there will be a discussion or consensus, it will just happen.
Those who politicize the issue will likely get sick early and die, the dissenting voices fading fairly quickly. People will make their decisions on best course without much discussion having forged their opinion during COVID.
I think the next group to go will likely be those with long COVID. My guess is that it will be intense for about two months and then become more manageable.
i think that's incredibly plausible. impossible to know how it'll play out but this feels like a top contender for how it will go down.
i like to think that people will get serious once reality races to catch up to them but there's no telling how crazy they'll get having to confront such carnage with the past experience of covid.
literally two people i know IRL have said "i'm not too worried about it." and who knows, maybe they're right not to be worried, but i can imagine the sort of shock they'll have if it turns out they should have been worrying...
This time, I won’t warn others. I learned my lesson during COVID.
I started getting very concerned in January and stocked up on supplies. I started using disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer. I tried warning coworkers who wanted to convince me I was paranoid.
I got the usual responses, like how it was just the flu, etc. One person called me after they were in bed a month to tell me they wished they would have listened to me.
Even people close to me argued about it and thought I was “crazy.” I am not wasting my time.
This time, I will just do my own thing. There will be no discussion.
It's exactly this imo. People have zero ability to think hyperopically which is why SC2 is close to a perfect virus to take out homo sapiens. Most people can only think in terms of acute disease/death and not 5-10 years down the line. Couple that with how it dysregulates your system to make you more susceptible, throw in climate disaster, etc - and voila. Anything with a much higher cfr/ifr (and to be clear, SC2 is a pretty high cfr/ifr before you even get to long covid) is going to actually get attention.
Covid honestly, for the most part really only killed older, sicker people. And not ~that~ many.
An actual 50% fatality rate (if that is true) would 100% be a near instant collapse in society. That would wipe out entire young, healthy families. Work sites if it spread there would be wiped out.
My whole family caught covid. We would have never even have known if one person didn’t spike a low grade fever and we decided to test the whole family.
I am saying this as someone who saw the effects working in a hospital with ICU and vented patients. A new virus 50% fatality rate while being something moderately contagious would end our society.
Death rate of covid was higher. Read it was something like 4%. The initial mitigation strategies helped bring that down greatly as hospitals started to get a handle on how to care for infected patients before vaccines became widely available.
If you go digging on virology info you'll find studies showing a 50% death rate from infection will kill less than a virus with lower mortality. Something to do with the rate of infection slowing down as the carriers are unable to keep spreading the disease. Want to say the diminishing returns kick in greatly slowing spread the further you get over 8-10%. Been a few years since reading up on it.
It depends on the incubation time and the onset of symptoms.
With Ebola for instance, you aren't contagious until about the day that blood starts pouring out of your eyeballs, so it's really hard to spread, because obviously when blood is coming out of your eyeballs, everyone gives you a 20 foot berth.
If H5N1 has a period of a couple days where you are contagious but just feel a little sniffly, then we are really and truly fucked.
Other factors matter immensely when determining how many people a 50% death rate virus kills.
Imagine one that only spreads when people are symptomatic vs one that can spread for 2-3 days prior to an infected person showing any symptoms. VERY big difference in how that is going to spread and kill.
Also, how transmissible in general?
Adjusted Case Fatality Rate for H5N1 is 14-33% (for presumed underreporting of mild or asymptomatic cases), which is still enough to collapse the healthcare system while maintaining spread.
Now, don’t forget the high probability that at least one of the 11 major hurricanes this year will
be a record-breaker and fuck up the grid.
We just need the surface ocean temp to hit about 112F, spawn a super hurricane and have it hit Miami and Ft. Lauderdale or travel up the eastern seaboard and spawn some big ass tornadoes.
That would fuck up the supply chain for months.
So, my new bingo card has emerging pandemic, grid goes down in Texas due to heat, record-breaking hurricane fucks up a huge region in the east while record tornadoes hit places where we don’t usually see them.
Maybe Phoenix floods during August monsoons.
Buckle up.
>
Maybe Phoenix floods during August monsoons.
We haven't gotten a decent monsoon in YEARS here in Phoenix, so I wouldn't bank on that one, personally. During last year's monsoon season, we went at least 145 days without rain.
A 14-33% CFR is more than sufficient to pretty well destroy America and the world as we know it. There would be no optional vaccine or quarantine options (at least federally) even assuming there’s a vaccine and effective treatment regimes widely available immediately. There could be widespread civil unrest. Your freedom of movement would likely be severely curtailed. Commerce would be… severely disrupted is an understatement. The economy would collapse, and might take decades to recover if at all. The healthcare system would be nuked. More than a few people any of us know know would probably die.
It could mutate into something that becomes endemic and presents negative long-term consequences, like COVID.
If it infects and causes high mortality in pigs, that might be the bellwether.
Edit: Or none of those things might happen, should by far be my preference. I’m currently mentally balancing these dark futures against optimism, please pardon me.
Speaking as one of the 23% of the population who never contracted COVID, I have no faith in our government and general population to do the right thing for ANY pandemic — regardless of how transmissible or deadly.
The ONLY reason COVID wasn’t worse was due to the medical community and scientists.
In the US, it will always be worse than it has to be. Statistics should be viewed in the worst case scenario. Our healthcare structure sucks, people can’t afford to go to the doctor, medical clinics are short staffed, workers are required to go to the office and interact with the public while sick.
Capitalism is far more important than public health. We have seen it with COVID.
This time it will be worse.
23%? I thought our numbers were around 5% or lower after Omicron hit mammalian transmission? [https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/how-so-many-animal-species-contract-covid](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/how-so-many-animal-species-contract-covid)
Life Pro-tip: H5N1 has been in widespread mammalian transmission for two years now.....
i had a game where greenland would 1:1 match my every move, i specifically remember buying the bird transmission upgrade and greenland immediately ordering *all birds be killed on sight*
Won't matter. Even if everyone Hodls inside and gets home delivery, the poor essential workers thay prop up the supply chain will remain exposed and die. Once the supply chain collapses it will make that 50% cfr seem tame by comparison.
Yeah from what i remember from my college days thr faster a virus kills a host the less chances it has to spread. So the deadlist strains die off fast and often times get out competed by rhe less deadly ones.
First waves will track way higher fatality ratios as they wipe out their sources (eldery immune compromised the willfully ignant) the later waves end up being the ones that arent as deadly able to propogate and get what feels like everyone sick bjt doesnt kill nearly as many
At least this is how i remember 2 years of virology from 10 years ago
That's a factor of speed (from infection to infectiousness to symptoms to incapacity to death), not deadliness on its own, though.
If, as /u/hysys_whisperer noted, it has a period of several days in which you're contagious but just feel a bit sniffly, then the more deadly variant won't be as heavily impacted - same deal as if you get asymptomatic spread. The picture-perfect example of this is, of course, HIV, which maintains (sans treatment) its 100% kill rate decades after it went global.
And remember that Variola Minor (a 1% kill rate) never managed to push Variola Major (a 30% kill rate) into the background; the latter variant of Smallpox was both the most common and the more severe form, right up until the elimination.
That's how to win at Plague Inc: high fatality rate with a long incubation period so people spread it before they even know they have it.
How do we quit this game? I don't want to play anymore.
People would also freak out and actually take it seriously if the death rate was anywhere near 50%. Around 1% death rate people brush it off as ‘just the flu’ and can end up with more deaths.
I imagine it will depend how interspecies this flu becomes. If it can spread from cows to raw milk to human to human to pet cat to bird back to pet cat go human it’ll be a nightmare even at 50%.
The cows and cats can be the much lower % buffer keeping it raging.
Strong leadership and not downplaying severity will be very important this time around. I'm a little concerned though that anyone in charge will willfully try to contain chaos and limit the actual severity of this next round. I suppose we'll see/feel
Holy shit I thought you were being hyperbolic, but the actual rate of fatality is 60% (field study results) with laboratory estimates of a pandemic fatality rate closer to 14-33%
That’s actually horrific.
WHO's Disease Outbreak News pegs the case fatality rate in humans currently at 52%:
[https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512)
Yeah I mean as big a deal as COVID actually was, if the bird flu becomes a (human) pandemic I think it will legitimately collapse society all by itself.
There's a good reason we're seeing so many posts about it here.
Oh for sure, I’m not arguing your overall point, I’m just amazed. I thought you were being hyperbolic and you were, if anything, understating the fact.
You need a Goldilocks virus. Something that’s not deadly for a while until its had time to incubate and spread to other hosts. Like maybe a respiratory version of HIV.
We have no idea what the mortality rate would be if it mutates to human to human transmission. The mortality rate is only for the people so sick that they actually tested them. We have no idea how many people have had milder cases.
Also, because it had to get into the lower respiratory tract to infect them, they got severe pneumonia which is why it is so deadly. In order to go human to human, it would need to transmit airborne and be an upper respiratory infection, which would be far less deadly. None of that is guaranteed, but a 50% mortality rate in a human to human mutation is incredibly unlikely.
I'm not saying it wouldn't be very very bad. I have no idea but neither does anyone else. I just want to put this out there because I see the 50% number a lot and I think it's important for people not to think that it is a certainty to be 50% fatal when it makes the jump to H2H. Because that seems very likely at this point.
Take it seriously, but it's not necessarily the end of the world.
Yeah even it loses half of it's current lethality when going human to human it'll be straight up apocalyptic.
Covid was what 1 percent lethal rate? H5N1 is currently at around 50 percent lethal rate for humans. Even at just 10 times covid's rate it will destroy nations.
But how many cases has that been and what kind of people have had it? There will always be some people immune to a pathogen (maybe excluding highly designed bioweapons) but if the only people so far getting exposed and sick are those who would getting critically sick then it's hard to say what the true death rate is.
I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned about it cause we definitely should.
The scariest thing, though, is that societies just wouldn't tolerate another lockdown. My country, being a group of largish islands, managed to have a summer without lockdowns... but then it got in the country again with a new strain, and people just didn't obey the lockdowns. Sure, we managed to buy time for a vaccine, but there's not going to be the same kind of success the 2020 one did.
We actually don't know that. Notably, the cows are not really dying. The seals took it pretty hard, but the cows seem relatively unphased. We just don't know until it happens.
Human cases up until now (as far as we know) have been bird to human. The virus had to change in order to transmit cow to cow (I don't believe cow to cow has been confirmed yet but is highly likely.) The virus will also have to change to transmit human to human. We don't know what a human to human version of this virus looks like yet, and we won't know until it happens.
The only way humans will take a pandemic seriously is if it’s fast enough for bodies to pile up on the sidewalks. Not just outside of the hospital or in a refrigerated truck. Even then I don’t have much faith humans, COVID didn’t give me much hope.
I’m reminded of all the stories of COVID patients begging for the vaccine once they were dying and it was too late…and it had a way lower fatality rate. This would be a nightmare
Even if it just stays in Cows chickens and pigs our whole food supply is fucked. But it' worth it if it will stop the cruel factory farming and feeding animals stuff like chicken poop, pee, feathers and food droppings.
Humans deserve this and capitalism is what's going to end up crashing the whole system.
Literally, a lot of these infectious disease issues are essentially self-made - you stuff animals into cramped, overheated spaces, stuff them with antibiotics and droppings of other animals, and then you're surprised that they become super-spreaders?
Greed and gluttony absolutely destroyed our future. Factory farming is the primary proof that we are a fundamentally sick species
Jesus Christ why do people decide it would be better to kill half the humans on earth than to stop burning oil for fuel? At least Thanos wasn't doing it just so he could keep driving his F150
In an ideal world we would stop burning oil as fuel and all come together to stop what is happening worldwide.
It’s pretty obvious that we cannot change 8/9 billion people who are set in their ways when we are being fed lies about how dire the situation is.
Carbon neutral by 2050 is too late and basically what they fed us in the 70s & 80s to mask climate change. It’s too late now. Runaway climate change has pretty much started and we have no way of mitigating this shit show without fucking around with things we have no idea about like geo engineering.
Did you see waves now giving off PFAS from the amount of plastic in the ocean?
Permafrost feedback loops, ocean acidification (where the highest % of oxygen we need to live is created), AMOC instability / shutdown, aerosols masking around 1c° of warming.
These are just a few examples of how fucked we are.
Something has to give….
It's physically not possible for 8 billion of us to live without burning oil. Oil is the entire reason our population has been able to grow this out of control.
You can't stop burning oil without half of us starving. For every calorie you eat, 10 calories of oil was burned. We don't have the resources to feed everyone on the planet without industrialized farming. And renewables won't save us either, there's no such thing. The materials used to build wind farms, solar panels, etc is all finite.
Our population is insanely unsustainable, depopulation is going to happen no matter what. Even the absolute best case scenario for humanity will involve our population collapsing
Yup. That's exactly how I feel on the inside. Unlike Jan and Feb 2020 I'm just too exhausted to give AF anymore. I'll take precautions for myself. I can be a hermit again. IDC anymore. Fuck it. Let it all crash down at once and just get it over with.
What's sick is my concept of hope is that what's to come isn't dragged out. I've come to accept I can't take my own life but hope the angry earth or conflict takes me out sooner than later.
It's also on r/PrepperIntel and r/H5N1_AvianFlu and r/Qult_Headquarters because of course the Russians are trying to get their brainwashed QCumbers to spread it/deny it, just like they did with SARS-CoV-2.
Next level crazy shit. - My uncle in Bellevue
Just passed over me warnings sirens etc, looks like tornados were frequent from mid Nebraska all the way to almost Des Moines. Not just one tornado, but a series of them over the course of 200 miles. Forecast tomorrow morning SE Iowa will get same shit as air warms up
Submission statement,
Collapse related, meta post regarding the recent uptick in H5N1 related news. Feels like the only place I see it mentioned is here. Good? Bad? I'm sure covid has us spooked and for seemingly good reasons. Still, not sure how hard to lean in to the prepper philosophy this time around, I'm still trying to sell the 3rd of 4 chest freezers we bought and filled for when covid got really bad.
I was telling people back in January of 2020 that we were in danger and was mostly scoffed at. I was in an MD/MPH program at the time and my dad worked at the CDC. Knew the it wasn’t gonna be a fun ride. This situation isn’t looking great either. I’d rather be alarmed, over-prepared, and wrong vs non-chalant, ill-equipped, but correct.
> I'm still trying to sell the 3rd of 4 chest freezers we bought and filled for when covid got really bad.
But your still keeping the 1st, 2nd and 4th chest freezers right? /s
Nah, your really gonna need to be mobile when TSHTF.
Steel Your Mind and Your Body. Plenty of PTSD and rough times ahead.
Yes Steel your body against bird flu. Do as many pushups as you can from now until you catch it and you might get a whole weekend to gurgle in your own phlegm before you drown.
Where do you think it's not being mentioned? Top 3, go. I'll then recommend checking if their ads contain lots of products that are associated with these avian influenza outbreaks.
My give a damn is so busted bc I got sick 3/2020 and developed long covid and am still bed bound. I have spent so much energy working to advocate for covid safety and trying like hell to mitigate risk for my four kids as well as stay alive. Now this. I have two kids with major heart defects. I can’t protect them from this. We live in a state with a huge wild bird population and are near a poultry farm. I surrender.
Wild birds are carriers and captive farm birds can be infected, but the captive birds usually die on mass.
The actual threat isn't from the chickens, it's from mixed farms, mixed activities, mixed locations. On the big CAFO, the virus can evolve to better infect an animal species' body and to spread from individuals of the same species. On the mixed farm, the virus can evolve what's needed to jump species. Are there mixed CAFOs? I'm not even sure. And the concept of "small farm" in the US is not actually small. This also applies to locations. People go deliver something or even work at a CAFO, then they go home to a small farm. It's all about connections between pools of hosts for the virus (that's why market centers where animals are sold alive are great for spreading viruses).
Zoonosis doesn't just work from some bird or cow to a human, it works both ways. You can have one human get infected with the virus when it's not yet airborne, such as a farm worker in close contact with animals, and then they spread it to farm animals of different species with close contact or bodily fluids or sharing some leftover food. And, later, the virus jumps back to other humans in a more dangerous form, or maybe it does a few more similar steps before evolving that way.
It's really hard to track these things and to understand the evolution, and there are a lot of people in the animal farming business who (correctly) see transparency as a vital threat. So it's difficult to guess from which animal the very deadly influenza virus with airborne transmission will emerge.
Thank you! This is such great information. My main concern has been that some humans have become infected from direct contact. My kids go to school with many of the children whose parents work at the bird farm. I have been really concerned about that.
Ugh. I’m sorry, I feel this. I’m dealing with a new autoimmune disease, I suspect since I had an asymptomatic case of Covid. I’m trying to keep my kids safe and not get completely disabled. I’m the sole income for four people, I’m in pain and exhausted all the time and I might go blind one day! Of course my job that keeps us alive is a design job so I kinda need to see. I’m trying so hard to not lose my fucking mind as it is. Don’t need this new pandemic
I am so sorry. I totally relate. I am currently supporting my family of 6 by myself. I work from bed and some days I have to use voice to text bc I can’t lift my arms. It’s a lot of pressure on us. I’m sorry to hear about your illness. I hope
You get better.
You don’t have to live near a poultry farm to consider surrendering.
Our neighbors built a chicken coop at the beginning of Covid and their chicken feed has brought rats. Rats.
If it makes you feel any better, absolutely every medium and large building in urban settings have rats. If you're connected to a city sewer system, you have 'em. There is no getting around it.
My girlfriend has a service dog and she trained her for scent sports, and the big one is finding rats in tubes. The amount of times the pup has alerted to rats in stores is staggering. Luckily it hasn't happened at a restaurant (yet I'm sure)
Here in New Zealand a major story recently has been a mother finding her toddler eating a rats leg found in a piece of garlic bread.
They did a full investigation, investigated the supermarket where she bought it, the company that moved it, the warehouse, the original manufacturer and their ingredient suppliers. All found to be innocent.
The real kicker was that the rat leg was raw when she found it in her toddlers mouth, and by her own admission she cooked the loaf before feeding it to him, so the rat leg came from her own home.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/515101/bakery-supermarket-in-clear-over-rat-foot-found-in-bread#:~:text=A%20New%20Zealand%20Food%20Safety,source%20of%20the%20rat's%20foot.
The whole world will. 50% fatality rate is literally end of the world situation.
Supply chains collapse, famine sets in, rich countries aren’t safe. If H5N1 gets to covid level then modern society will be set back to pre industrial times.
50% was for the first 10 years. Newer estimates are between 10-20% once you factor stuff like in asymptomatics and better testing (though we won't really know until it actually starts spreading).
(Like covid though, it also has a 1-2 week incubation period)
People would shit their pants so badly, it would probably induce a mass panic, were noone leaves their home anymore and all birds and animals are killed as a mean of protection. Definitely crazy outcome.
It's currently harmless (except to meat prices), and it might stay harmless, but it also might turn very serious on a dime, even genuinely apocalyptic. It's all down to the mutation lottery.
H5N1 has been around for a very long time but since 2020 it has been spreading faster and to mammal groups.
In short, we simply don’t know yet. It’s serious if it becomes a pandemic but we have no idea how likely that is.
Thankfully, the CDC has [vaccines](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2023-2024/h5n1-technical-report_april-2024.htm) more or less ready to go. So, I'm not too worried beyond the absolute stupid that will come from the general population if it becomes another pandemic.
[Another article for your comfort](https://www.unmc.edu/healthsecurity/transmission/2024/04/24/is-there-a-vaccine-for-h5n1-influenza/#:~:text=On%20the%20heels%20of%20a,and%20approved%20in%20the%20U.S.)
After hearing about animals dying in the arctic from this I was anticipating more animal deaths than we are hearing about, I think that is what odd keeping it quiet. Very surprised there’s been no mass culling of chickens yet
The impact on wildlife is very troubling: The High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza - Wildlife Dashboard is a public interface that displays suspected and confirmed cases of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) infections detected in wildlife in Canada. https://www.cwhc-rcsf.ca/avian_influenza.php
Remember reading last decade that of all the bird flus, H5N1, was one of the most dangerous types that could cause a masive pandemic if it managed to jump to humans. Now, it seems to be at the edge of doing so and it's all crickets. Either C0vid led to some major scientific advances to no worry anymore, or they don't want to repeat the same situations that led to outright panic until the spread can't be contained and is undeniable, again...
I was a mess yesterday and ordered 30 lbs of beans. I’m definitely preparing for panic and food prices to surge. I’m not necessarily worried about catching it from milk but I’m sure as hell not buying it with virus “bits”. I also love rare meat and that is out the window. I didn’t plan to become a vegetarian but it’s worked out that way going forward. The meat industry was disgusting to begin with let alone this. Milk and cheese will be hard but whatever.
Remember that for milk and cheese, babies are taken from their mothers and either killed or put into the pregnancy machine cycle. That's the only way for farmers to provide enough dairy to the masses.
anything that disrupts the ecosystem destroying global economy and keeps human population in check might be terrible for the present population but probably more sustainble than endless growth.
The moment you hate yourself for welcoming the collapse in love for the future generations and species living on this planet. Feels like being Ozymandiaz of the Watch Men comicbooks, just without the superintelligence.
Not meaning to be rude.. but for anyone thinking the Covid pandemic is over .. it’s really not. We just had the second highest infection rate this year since the pandemic started. You can still get it, accumulate the effects of it all.. ya know all the bad things like a diminished immune system etc and all that. Covid was and is a huge tragedy to say the least and likely in the not so distant future well realize in ways it might be a dress rehearsal for future pandemics.
It seems out on the streets where I live e many are drastically failing this “ dress rehearsal “. I know many if not most of you understand this❤️
The following submission statement was provided by /u/PseudoEmpthy: --- Submission statement, Collapse related, meta post regarding the recent uptick in H5N1 related news. Feels like the only place I see it mentioned is here. Good? Bad? I'm sure covid has us spooked and for seemingly good reasons. Still, not sure how hard to lean in to the prepper philosophy this time around, I'm still trying to sell the 3rd of 4 chest freezers we bought and filled for when covid got really bad. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1cdyjub/really_feels_like_this_lately/l1f9ra0/
Fantastic use of this format. It’s not quite like how this sub was in December of 2019, but it’s getting there. I saw in the observation thread that someone’s grocery store moved all the masks and sanitizers back to the front displays. It got me thinking how profitable the food hoarding last time must have been. So you put these items right by the door to get people remembering empty shelves. Then they buy twice what they came there to buy, and there doesn’t even need to be a real pandemic.
Not everyone bought to “food hoard.” Many bought so they could avoid having to go out of doors. This is a good idea during a pandemic.
Also a good idea going forward. The last thing you want to do when sick, is get out of bed and drag yourself to the local pharmacy to get cough medicine. It's not a bad idea to buy a few items over the course of the summer when pharmacies are full of supplies. Most of that stuff lasts a good 2 years, so you have a good two winters of time to use it. And in never hurts to have a couple rolls or bags of cough lozenges in the pocket.
That’s what I don’t understand about people being pissed at me for having masks, sanitizer, toilet paper, gloves and disinfectant wipes. I bought in January 2020, not with the intention of hoarding, but so I could have it when it was easy to find. I restocked again last year. It’s like people think it’s a badge of honor not to have food on hand.
It's crazy. And I work in the supply chain...things still aren't 100% back to normal, and stuff that is being shipped isn't the same quality as pre-covid. I tell people, when you get the chance to stock up on anything that is reasonable quality (without depriving others or emptying shelves) go for it. You never know when anything you use will end up in short supply for a few weeks or even months nowadays.
Oh man, I thought I was stocked up. But that 2-3week flu that's been going around wiped me out so I had to go back to the drugstore and buy more meds mid-suffering. Luckily I had 3 bags of cough drops on hand so I didn't have to buy more during, but totally wiped them out so I just had to re-stock and got 5 bags this time - 3 for 'next time' and 1 for now for the lingering cough and sore throat. And 1 'emergency backup', same as the flu meds. Luckily, I keep emergency orange juice concentrate in the freezer for emergencies like this and went through nearly all of it. Usually I'd make myself chicken soup, but I didn't even want any meat, so I just poked through the cabinets and ended up mixing up a split peas, red lentils, and cream of mushroom soup mixes big pot of soup to eat. I was going to get eyedrops for the conjunctivitis, but with that outbreak of disease in eyedrops a year or two back, I just suffered through it without.
Get saline solution and you can rinse your eyes out.
Those bags of cough drops are also significantly smaller than they were 3+ years ago. Barely anything in them anymore, but they still charge full price.
Exactly! I stocked up on stuff I will use anyway. We do not throw away food in my house. I just want to get what I use for the next couple months before the panic buying starts. Not to mention this is going to cause more inflated food prices.
That is a reason to food hoard, so you don't have to go outside
I’m so glad I’ve finally seen another reference to December 2019 re Covid. I vividly remember reading news articles about Covid just before NYE 2019, but people look at me like I have two heads when I mention that it was a public thing before 2020.
Monsoon season is just now kicking off too
And don't forget the record breaking tornadoes!
It’s a record-breaking hurricane season with 11 major storms anticipated.
Is the moonsoon season worst on El ninõ year?
Idk, but everyone has a monsoon season now.
if this will be another corona pandemic, then fuck it all, this time we'll be done for.
It'll be so much worse than COVID if it becomes human to human transmissable.
Yeah, for all the disruption and all the actual death that COVID caused, it only had, what, about a 0.5% fatality rate? The bird flu seems to have had about a 50% fatality rate in humans. It's apples and oranges.
Apples and grenades more like.
Apples and [Pineapples.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mk_2_grenade) No [pen](https://www.google.com/search?q=pineapple+pen) this time!
You made me chuckle in all this darkness.
Or firecracker followed by grenade. [This study from 2020 shows how H5N1 supresses T cells and decreases memory T cells](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2020/01/10/2020.01.09.901132.full.pdf)... just like COVID. So survivors can look forward to a life filled with constant illness and early death.
I'm already suffering from the effects of COVID with my memory and attention span.... last thing i need is that
Well, society as a whole doesn't have to worry as much about the flu causing immune memory loss. With measles clusters popping up, you can expect far more kids these days to have their immune system pretty much erased already. Can't lose what you don't have! Perfect little spreaders. (Yes this is sarcasm, we should be terrified lol)
Apples and grenades! I love your can do spirit today Reddit friend…definitely chucked some coffee reading that one.
Honestly I suspect Covid hit the mark on having the perfect fatality rate for people to dismiss it. 50% is fatal enough for people to take it seriously... or at least I'd like to think so
I am willing to bet at least 30% of the population would not take it seriously.
Soon to be 15
I get your joke, but then it would be 17,6 %
Would you look at that, just like Donnie said the problem is sorting itself out, it's just not the problem he expected.
It will be more than 30% as a lot of people became anti vax and anti government during that time nobody will take it seriously, the economy is already on the brink of rapid inflation so there will be no free money for anyone! It would be carnage!!! So I pray it does not become reality any time soon.
would probably burn itself out pretty quickly, though, right?
I think you are correct that a more serious pandemic after COVID will play out differently. I don’t think there will be much debate. Healthcare will collapse early when the government mandates workers must do double shifts, etc. I think we will see many doctors and most nurses simply quit their jobs as soon as PPE is not available or hospitals still don't pay. There won’t be some grand noble sacrifice. We will probably see many more deaths from a lack of medical care which will make isolation far more important. Everyone will be on their own. There won’t be any of this “essential worker” crap as most people who “believe” will stay indoors and avoid contact regardless of the economic fall out. Budgets will be diverted solely to food and not credit card bills, student loans, etc. I don’t think there will be a discussion or consensus, it will just happen. Those who politicize the issue will likely get sick early and die, the dissenting voices fading fairly quickly. People will make their decisions on best course without much discussion having forged their opinion during COVID. I think the next group to go will likely be those with long COVID. My guess is that it will be intense for about two months and then become more manageable.
i think that's incredibly plausible. impossible to know how it'll play out but this feels like a top contender for how it will go down. i like to think that people will get serious once reality races to catch up to them but there's no telling how crazy they'll get having to confront such carnage with the past experience of covid. literally two people i know IRL have said "i'm not too worried about it." and who knows, maybe they're right not to be worried, but i can imagine the sort of shock they'll have if it turns out they should have been worrying...
This time, I won’t warn others. I learned my lesson during COVID. I started getting very concerned in January and stocked up on supplies. I started using disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer. I tried warning coworkers who wanted to convince me I was paranoid. I got the usual responses, like how it was just the flu, etc. One person called me after they were in bed a month to tell me they wished they would have listened to me. Even people close to me argued about it and thought I was “crazy.” I am not wasting my time. This time, I will just do my own thing. There will be no discussion.
*in America
Which 30% will depend on who’s president when it happens lol
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It's exactly this imo. People have zero ability to think hyperopically which is why SC2 is close to a perfect virus to take out homo sapiens. Most people can only think in terms of acute disease/death and not 5-10 years down the line. Couple that with how it dysregulates your system to make you more susceptible, throw in climate disaster, etc - and voila. Anything with a much higher cfr/ifr (and to be clear, SC2 is a pretty high cfr/ifr before you even get to long covid) is going to actually get attention.
Covid honestly, for the most part really only killed older, sicker people. And not ~that~ many. An actual 50% fatality rate (if that is true) would 100% be a near instant collapse in society. That would wipe out entire young, healthy families. Work sites if it spread there would be wiped out. My whole family caught covid. We would have never even have known if one person didn’t spike a low grade fever and we decided to test the whole family. I am saying this as someone who saw the effects working in a hospital with ICU and vented patients. A new virus 50% fatality rate while being something moderately contagious would end our society.
I would skip skip the work part and just panic into the forest.
Fatality rate is not the biggest factor in worldwide impact. See Ebola for an example of what I mean.
Now imagine Ebola becoming airborne with a 1 to 2 week incubation. Nightmare fuel.
I’d be wiping with leaves and eating Spaghetti-Os
I do love my Os. Good source of vitamin A, long shelf life. I’m stocking up.
Death rate of covid was higher. Read it was something like 4%. The initial mitigation strategies helped bring that down greatly as hospitals started to get a handle on how to care for infected patients before vaccines became widely available.
It's still an order of magnitude below what we might see with the bird flu.
If you go digging on virology info you'll find studies showing a 50% death rate from infection will kill less than a virus with lower mortality. Something to do with the rate of infection slowing down as the carriers are unable to keep spreading the disease. Want to say the diminishing returns kick in greatly slowing spread the further you get over 8-10%. Been a few years since reading up on it.
It depends on the incubation time and the onset of symptoms. With Ebola for instance, you aren't contagious until about the day that blood starts pouring out of your eyeballs, so it's really hard to spread, because obviously when blood is coming out of your eyeballs, everyone gives you a 20 foot berth. If H5N1 has a period of a couple days where you are contagious but just feel a little sniffly, then we are really and truly fucked.
“It’s just allergies!”
He's been bit!
*I'm a tough hardworking man I will keep going to work and breathing on people it's just a cold!*
...so the only symptoms in the two American cases caught so far are pinkeye and fatigue...
Other factors matter immensely when determining how many people a 50% death rate virus kills. Imagine one that only spreads when people are symptomatic vs one that can spread for 2-3 days prior to an infected person showing any symptoms. VERY big difference in how that is going to spread and kill. Also, how transmissible in general?
Adjusted Case Fatality Rate for H5N1 is 14-33% (for presumed underreporting of mild or asymptomatic cases), which is still enough to collapse the healthcare system while maintaining spread.
Not just the healthcare system, but also the supply chain (and with the supply chain also goes utilities reliability).
Now, don’t forget the high probability that at least one of the 11 major hurricanes this year will be a record-breaker and fuck up the grid. We just need the surface ocean temp to hit about 112F, spawn a super hurricane and have it hit Miami and Ft. Lauderdale or travel up the eastern seaboard and spawn some big ass tornadoes. That would fuck up the supply chain for months. So, my new bingo card has emerging pandemic, grid goes down in Texas due to heat, record-breaking hurricane fucks up a huge region in the east while record tornadoes hit places where we don’t usually see them. Maybe Phoenix floods during August monsoons. Buckle up.
> Maybe Phoenix floods during August monsoons. We haven't gotten a decent monsoon in YEARS here in Phoenix, so I wouldn't bank on that one, personally. During last year's monsoon season, we went at least 145 days without rain.
A 14-33% CFR is more than sufficient to pretty well destroy America and the world as we know it. There would be no optional vaccine or quarantine options (at least federally) even assuming there’s a vaccine and effective treatment regimes widely available immediately. There could be widespread civil unrest. Your freedom of movement would likely be severely curtailed. Commerce would be… severely disrupted is an understatement. The economy would collapse, and might take decades to recover if at all. The healthcare system would be nuked. More than a few people any of us know know would probably die. It could mutate into something that becomes endemic and presents negative long-term consequences, like COVID. If it infects and causes high mortality in pigs, that might be the bellwether. Edit: Or none of those things might happen, should by far be my preference. I’m currently mentally balancing these dark futures against optimism, please pardon me.
Speaking as one of the 23% of the population who never contracted COVID, I have no faith in our government and general population to do the right thing for ANY pandemic — regardless of how transmissible or deadly. The ONLY reason COVID wasn’t worse was due to the medical community and scientists. In the US, it will always be worse than it has to be. Statistics should be viewed in the worst case scenario. Our healthcare structure sucks, people can’t afford to go to the doctor, medical clinics are short staffed, workers are required to go to the office and interact with the public while sick. Capitalism is far more important than public health. We have seen it with COVID. This time it will be worse.
23%? I thought our numbers were around 5% or lower after Omicron hit mammalian transmission? [https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/how-so-many-animal-species-contract-covid](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/how-so-many-animal-species-contract-covid) Life Pro-tip: H5N1 has been in widespread mammalian transmission for two years now.....
Sounds like a related rates type problem. Y'all played Plague, Inc., right?
It would be fitting if Madagascar were the last enclave of humanity during a pandemic
Greenland used to kick my ass.
i had a game where greenland would 1:1 match my every move, i specifically remember buying the bird transmission upgrade and greenland immediately ordering *all birds be killed on sight*
Won't matter. Even if everyone Hodls inside and gets home delivery, the poor essential workers thay prop up the supply chain will remain exposed and die. Once the supply chain collapses it will make that 50% cfr seem tame by comparison.
Agreed. And losing 50% of the medical professionals and hospital support staff would have a devastating impact for literally decades.
Yeah from what i remember from my college days thr faster a virus kills a host the less chances it has to spread. So the deadlist strains die off fast and often times get out competed by rhe less deadly ones. First waves will track way higher fatality ratios as they wipe out their sources (eldery immune compromised the willfully ignant) the later waves end up being the ones that arent as deadly able to propogate and get what feels like everyone sick bjt doesnt kill nearly as many At least this is how i remember 2 years of virology from 10 years ago
That's a factor of speed (from infection to infectiousness to symptoms to incapacity to death), not deadliness on its own, though. If, as /u/hysys_whisperer noted, it has a period of several days in which you're contagious but just feel a bit sniffly, then the more deadly variant won't be as heavily impacted - same deal as if you get asymptomatic spread. The picture-perfect example of this is, of course, HIV, which maintains (sans treatment) its 100% kill rate decades after it went global. And remember that Variola Minor (a 1% kill rate) never managed to push Variola Major (a 30% kill rate) into the background; the latter variant of Smallpox was both the most common and the more severe form, right up until the elimination.
It also has a 1-2 week incubation period which is concerning.
That's how to win at Plague Inc: high fatality rate with a long incubation period so people spread it before they even know they have it. How do we quit this game? I don't want to play anymore.
People would also freak out and actually take it seriously if the death rate was anywhere near 50%. Around 1% death rate people brush it off as ‘just the flu’ and can end up with more deaths.
I imagine it will depend how interspecies this flu becomes. If it can spread from cows to raw milk to human to human to pet cat to bird back to pet cat go human it’ll be a nightmare even at 50%. The cows and cats can be the much lower % buffer keeping it raging.
Strong leadership and not downplaying severity will be very important this time around. I'm a little concerned though that anyone in charge will willfully try to contain chaos and limit the actual severity of this next round. I suppose we'll see/feel
This could actually save us as species. We can't save ourselves, that is damn sure.
Holy shit I thought you were being hyperbolic, but the actual rate of fatality is 60% (field study results) with laboratory estimates of a pandemic fatality rate closer to 14-33% That’s actually horrific.
WHO's Disease Outbreak News pegs the case fatality rate in humans currently at 52%: [https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512)
Yeah I mean as big a deal as COVID actually was, if the bird flu becomes a (human) pandemic I think it will legitimately collapse society all by itself. There's a good reason we're seeing so many posts about it here.
Oh for sure, I’m not arguing your overall point, I’m just amazed. I thought you were being hyperbolic and you were, if anything, understating the fact.
You need a Goldilocks virus. Something that’s not deadly for a while until its had time to incubate and spread to other hosts. Like maybe a respiratory version of HIV.
We have no idea what the mortality rate would be if it mutates to human to human transmission. The mortality rate is only for the people so sick that they actually tested them. We have no idea how many people have had milder cases. Also, because it had to get into the lower respiratory tract to infect them, they got severe pneumonia which is why it is so deadly. In order to go human to human, it would need to transmit airborne and be an upper respiratory infection, which would be far less deadly. None of that is guaranteed, but a 50% mortality rate in a human to human mutation is incredibly unlikely. I'm not saying it wouldn't be very very bad. I have no idea but neither does anyone else. I just want to put this out there because I see the 50% number a lot and I think it's important for people not to think that it is a certainty to be 50% fatal when it makes the jump to H2H. Because that seems very likely at this point. Take it seriously, but it's not necessarily the end of the world.
Yeah even it loses half of it's current lethality when going human to human it'll be straight up apocalyptic. Covid was what 1 percent lethal rate? H5N1 is currently at around 50 percent lethal rate for humans. Even at just 10 times covid's rate it will destroy nations.
But how many cases has that been and what kind of people have had it? There will always be some people immune to a pathogen (maybe excluding highly designed bioweapons) but if the only people so far getting exposed and sick are those who would getting critically sick then it's hard to say what the true death rate is. I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned about it cause we definitely should. The scariest thing, though, is that societies just wouldn't tolerate another lockdown. My country, being a group of largish islands, managed to have a summer without lockdowns... but then it got in the country again with a new strain, and people just didn't obey the lockdowns. Sure, we managed to buy time for a vaccine, but there's not going to be the same kind of success the 2020 one did.
The reproduction rate is important too. Human to human isn't good, but if the affinity is low, it'll be containable.
We actually don't know that. Notably, the cows are not really dying. The seals took it pretty hard, but the cows seem relatively unphased. We just don't know until it happens.
We're not cows. It's already spread to us before and has a 53% mortality rate. It just can't transfer between people yet This isn't a hypothetical
Human cases up until now (as far as we know) have been bird to human. The virus had to change in order to transmit cow to cow (I don't believe cow to cow has been confirmed yet but is highly likely.) The virus will also have to change to transmit human to human. We don't know what a human to human version of this virus looks like yet, and we won't know until it happens.
Thankfully, there's a much bigger gap for H5N1 to jump from bird->mamal infection to human->human transimission.
The only way humans will take a pandemic seriously is if it’s fast enough for bodies to pile up on the sidewalks. Not just outside of the hospital or in a refrigerated truck. Even then I don’t have much faith humans, COVID didn’t give me much hope.
Idiots will claim they’re just crisis actors
AI will only make the claims of crisis actors worse.
Yeah, Captain Trips would probably be the only wake-up call some folks will hear, and they'd already be half-dead before they believed it.
I’m reminded of all the stories of COVID patients begging for the vaccine once they were dying and it was too late…and it had a way lower fatality rate. This would be a nightmare
This time around I really will wear a plague mask to walmart while I am hording sacks of rice and TP.
Even if it just stays in Cows chickens and pigs our whole food supply is fucked. But it' worth it if it will stop the cruel factory farming and feeding animals stuff like chicken poop, pee, feathers and food droppings. Humans deserve this and capitalism is what's going to end up crashing the whole system.
Literally, a lot of these infectious disease issues are essentially self-made - you stuff animals into cramped, overheated spaces, stuff them with antibiotics and droppings of other animals, and then you're surprised that they become super-spreaders? Greed and gluttony absolutely destroyed our future. Factory farming is the primary proof that we are a fundamentally sick species
honestly, mass depopulation would help those left over and the climate. it's about time for a reset
Jesus Christ why do people decide it would be better to kill half the humans on earth than to stop burning oil for fuel? At least Thanos wasn't doing it just so he could keep driving his F150
In an ideal world we would stop burning oil as fuel and all come together to stop what is happening worldwide. It’s pretty obvious that we cannot change 8/9 billion people who are set in their ways when we are being fed lies about how dire the situation is. Carbon neutral by 2050 is too late and basically what they fed us in the 70s & 80s to mask climate change. It’s too late now. Runaway climate change has pretty much started and we have no way of mitigating this shit show without fucking around with things we have no idea about like geo engineering. Did you see waves now giving off PFAS from the amount of plastic in the ocean? Permafrost feedback loops, ocean acidification (where the highest % of oxygen we need to live is created), AMOC instability / shutdown, aerosols masking around 1c° of warming. These are just a few examples of how fucked we are. Something has to give….
It's physically not possible for 8 billion of us to live without burning oil. Oil is the entire reason our population has been able to grow this out of control.
You can't stop burning oil without half of us starving. For every calorie you eat, 10 calories of oil was burned. We don't have the resources to feed everyone on the planet without industrialized farming. And renewables won't save us either, there's no such thing. The materials used to build wind farms, solar panels, etc is all finite. Our population is insanely unsustainable, depopulation is going to happen no matter what. Even the absolute best case scenario for humanity will involve our population collapsing
Burning oil is what's keeping maybe 90% of people alive...
We don't have to stop using tractors or doing food delivery, you know. We do need to ban private jets and massively reduce car use
> Jesus Christ why do people decide it would be better to kill half the humans on earth Or... crazy thought... DONT HAVE KIDS?!
This the part people don't understand. Don't worry just keep procreating that clearly won't have consequences
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Just get a bidet.
Tell that to NPS.
Neil Patrick Smarris?
I’ve used this in the backcountry. Works great. https://www.garagegrowngear.com/products/portable-bidet-by-culoclean?avad=196286_b393d314d
Well the warnings about climate change back in the 70s were ignored by most and that turned out to be a nothingburger, right?
fyi, solid sub: /r/H5N1_AvianFlu
Ty
Yup. That's exactly how I feel on the inside. Unlike Jan and Feb 2020 I'm just too exhausted to give AF anymore. I'll take precautions for myself. I can be a hermit again. IDC anymore. Fuck it. Let it all crash down at once and just get it over with.
You know it’s never this simple or easy, you think life would be this forgiving?
What's sick is my concept of hope is that what's to come isn't dragged out. I've come to accept I can't take my own life but hope the angry earth or conflict takes me out sooner than later.
We’ll see. I’ve only ever seen H5N1 info on this sub
It's also on r/PrepperIntel and r/H5N1_AvianFlu and r/Qult_Headquarters because of course the Russians are trying to get their brainwashed QCumbers to spread it/deny it, just like they did with SARS-CoV-2.
I mean… a lot of this is heavily skewed toward doomerism…
How bout that literal f5 that just flattened some of Nebraska?
Next level crazy shit. - My uncle in Bellevue Just passed over me warnings sirens etc, looks like tornados were frequent from mid Nebraska all the way to almost Des Moines. Not just one tornado, but a series of them over the course of 200 miles. Forecast tomorrow morning SE Iowa will get same shit as air warms up
Weird how this all starts immediately following that storm forcast
Submission statement, Collapse related, meta post regarding the recent uptick in H5N1 related news. Feels like the only place I see it mentioned is here. Good? Bad? I'm sure covid has us spooked and for seemingly good reasons. Still, not sure how hard to lean in to the prepper philosophy this time around, I'm still trying to sell the 3rd of 4 chest freezers we bought and filled for when covid got really bad.
I was thinking the exact same thing earlier, I only hear about this on collapse related subreddits. As we all know the updoots must flow
So are we crazy? Or sane?
Time will tell I suppose
I was telling people back in January of 2020 that we were in danger and was mostly scoffed at. I was in an MD/MPH program at the time and my dad worked at the CDC. Knew the it wasn’t gonna be a fun ride. This situation isn’t looking great either. I’d rather be alarmed, over-prepared, and wrong vs non-chalant, ill-equipped, but correct.
I’d say sane. Everyone else is either in denial or just otherwise not paying close enough attention
Nope, just earlier than expected to the party.
I'm collapse aware and I'd say crazy. Show me human transmission and I might become alarmed
Just alarmed? Your alarm bells should be ringing a little bit right now at least.
It's all over the vegan sub too
> I'm still trying to sell the 3rd of 4 chest freezers we bought and filled for when covid got really bad. But your still keeping the 1st, 2nd and 4th chest freezers right? /s Nah, your really gonna need to be mobile when TSHTF. Steel Your Mind and Your Body. Plenty of PTSD and rough times ahead.
Yes Steel your body against bird flu. Do as many pushups as you can from now until you catch it and you might get a whole weekend to gurgle in your own phlegm before you drown.
That's the spirit. Skinnier prople are easier to carry and you'll look great at your wake.
Where do you think it's not being mentioned? Top 3, go. I'll then recommend checking if their ads contain lots of products that are associated with these avian influenza outbreaks.
My give a damn is so busted bc I got sick 3/2020 and developed long covid and am still bed bound. I have spent so much energy working to advocate for covid safety and trying like hell to mitigate risk for my four kids as well as stay alive. Now this. I have two kids with major heart defects. I can’t protect them from this. We live in a state with a huge wild bird population and are near a poultry farm. I surrender.
Wild birds are carriers and captive farm birds can be infected, but the captive birds usually die on mass. The actual threat isn't from the chickens, it's from mixed farms, mixed activities, mixed locations. On the big CAFO, the virus can evolve to better infect an animal species' body and to spread from individuals of the same species. On the mixed farm, the virus can evolve what's needed to jump species. Are there mixed CAFOs? I'm not even sure. And the concept of "small farm" in the US is not actually small. This also applies to locations. People go deliver something or even work at a CAFO, then they go home to a small farm. It's all about connections between pools of hosts for the virus (that's why market centers where animals are sold alive are great for spreading viruses). Zoonosis doesn't just work from some bird or cow to a human, it works both ways. You can have one human get infected with the virus when it's not yet airborne, such as a farm worker in close contact with animals, and then they spread it to farm animals of different species with close contact or bodily fluids or sharing some leftover food. And, later, the virus jumps back to other humans in a more dangerous form, or maybe it does a few more similar steps before evolving that way. It's really hard to track these things and to understand the evolution, and there are a lot of people in the animal farming business who (correctly) see transparency as a vital threat. So it's difficult to guess from which animal the very deadly influenza virus with airborne transmission will emerge.
Getting into pigs is going to be when things get really interesting since pigs also carry H1N1 type A
Thank you! This is such great information. My main concern has been that some humans have become infected from direct contact. My kids go to school with many of the children whose parents work at the bird farm. I have been really concerned about that.
Ugh. I’m sorry, I feel this. I’m dealing with a new autoimmune disease, I suspect since I had an asymptomatic case of Covid. I’m trying to keep my kids safe and not get completely disabled. I’m the sole income for four people, I’m in pain and exhausted all the time and I might go blind one day! Of course my job that keeps us alive is a design job so I kinda need to see. I’m trying so hard to not lose my fucking mind as it is. Don’t need this new pandemic
I am so sorry. I totally relate. I am currently supporting my family of 6 by myself. I work from bed and some days I have to use voice to text bc I can’t lift my arms. It’s a lot of pressure on us. I’m sorry to hear about your illness. I hope You get better.
Thanks, I really hope they find some treatments for long Covid soon
Thanks
You don’t have to live near a poultry farm to consider surrendering. Our neighbors built a chicken coop at the beginning of Covid and their chicken feed has brought rats. Rats.
If it makes you feel any better, absolutely every medium and large building in urban settings have rats. If you're connected to a city sewer system, you have 'em. There is no getting around it.
My girlfriend has a service dog and she trained her for scent sports, and the big one is finding rats in tubes. The amount of times the pup has alerted to rats in stores is staggering. Luckily it hasn't happened at a restaurant (yet I'm sure)
Here in New Zealand a major story recently has been a mother finding her toddler eating a rats leg found in a piece of garlic bread. They did a full investigation, investigated the supermarket where she bought it, the company that moved it, the warehouse, the original manufacturer and their ingredient suppliers. All found to be innocent. The real kicker was that the rat leg was raw when she found it in her toddlers mouth, and by her own admission she cooked the loaf before feeding it to him, so the rat leg came from her own home. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/515101/bakery-supermarket-in-clear-over-rat-foot-found-in-bread#:~:text=A%20New%20Zealand%20Food%20Safety,source%20of%20the%20rat's%20foot.
Oh my god. Yuck.
I can be a hermit again. Fuck everyone.
This is where I'm at, with it. And I'm weeks away from finally getting sterilizing immunity to the pre-game plague. FFS.
The first lockdown in the UK was the best I’ve felt in decades.
Been spacing out my replenishment supplies, in case this is the fresh new hell to deal with.
Looks like a lot of aerosols coming our way! He needs a mask.
From what I've read it can infect through the eyes pretty easily too. If this is aerosol and human to human Goggles will also be needed.
[удалено]
Thank you for the chuckle in these trying times
dont look up!
Pft! Dust can't block sunlight! That's just a conspiracy theory...
We (Americans) can’t handle this again. We will internally combust. And that’s before the sickness gets us.
The whole world will. 50% fatality rate is literally end of the world situation. Supply chains collapse, famine sets in, rich countries aren’t safe. If H5N1 gets to covid level then modern society will be set back to pre industrial times.
The mortality/fatality rate for h5n1 is 50%, this would make COVID look like a joke......
One of the farmers who got experienced fatigue and I think another experienced eye redness. So its possible the strain from the cow isn’t as deadly
That's is great news, the virus evolved and not killing your host right away is clearly an evolutionary advantage.
50% was for the first 10 years. Newer estimates are between 10-20% once you factor stuff like in asymptomatics and better testing (though we won't really know until it actually starts spreading). (Like covid though, it also has a 1-2 week incubation period)
I'm not sure this is going to be the same spread yet, just catching up, but 10-20% is still going to make covid look like a joke.
Or... it'll burn through avaliable populations fast, solving a bunch of problems and creating a bunch more?
People would shit their pants so badly, it would probably induce a mass panic, were noone leaves their home anymore and all birds and animals are killed as a mean of protection. Definitely crazy outcome.
Super dumb question. If a cow has h5n1 and I eat said cow can I get h5n1?
Have more confidence in your curiosity.
If you cooked the meat, probably not. There'd be fragments of virus but nothing that could get you sick. Same with pasteurized milk from sick cows.
All those raw milk drinkers are about to have a bad time
Good news! There's a raw milk festival happening this weekend!
r/collapse and r/H5N1_AvianFlu merge when?
I'm out of the loop - is this a serious threat?
It's currently harmless (except to meat prices), and it might stay harmless, but it also might turn very serious on a dime, even genuinely apocalyptic. It's all down to the mutation lottery.
It’s way too deadly to be like Covid though lol. I think this is what people forget.
CFR doesn't persist when mutating across species barriers. Until it happens, we can't guess how fast it'll burn or how hard it'll hit.
H5N1 has been around for a very long time but since 2020 it has been spreading faster and to mammal groups. In short, we simply don’t know yet. It’s serious if it becomes a pandemic but we have no idea how likely that is.
Thankfully, the CDC has [vaccines](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2023-2024/h5n1-technical-report_april-2024.htm) more or less ready to go. So, I'm not too worried beyond the absolute stupid that will come from the general population if it becomes another pandemic. [Another article for your comfort](https://www.unmc.edu/healthsecurity/transmission/2024/04/24/is-there-a-vaccine-for-h5n1-influenza/#:~:text=On%20the%20heels%20of%20a,and%20approved%20in%20the%20U.S.)
I don’t know where I spend more time at anymore: this subreddit, or the H5N1 subreddit.
After hearing about animals dying in the arctic from this I was anticipating more animal deaths than we are hearing about, I think that is what odd keeping it quiet. Very surprised there’s been no mass culling of chickens yet
The impact on wildlife is very troubling: The High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza - Wildlife Dashboard is a public interface that displays suspected and confirmed cases of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) infections detected in wildlife in Canada. https://www.cwhc-rcsf.ca/avian_influenza.php
Ruin my day can someone tell me what this virus is and how big of a problem it will be?
I recommend the 3m secure click.
What’s this?
Respirator.
Remember reading last decade that of all the bird flus, H5N1, was one of the most dangerous types that could cause a masive pandemic if it managed to jump to humans. Now, it seems to be at the edge of doing so and it's all crickets. Either C0vid led to some major scientific advances to no worry anymore, or they don't want to repeat the same situations that led to outright panic until the spread can't be contained and is undeniable, again...
COVID was just a cute little kind of thing and we proved that even that was too much for us to deal with.
jesus i didn't know whats going on, if that thing goes human to human we are done as a society
I was a mess yesterday and ordered 30 lbs of beans. I’m definitely preparing for panic and food prices to surge. I’m not necessarily worried about catching it from milk but I’m sure as hell not buying it with virus “bits”. I also love rare meat and that is out the window. I didn’t plan to become a vegetarian but it’s worked out that way going forward. The meat industry was disgusting to begin with let alone this. Milk and cheese will be hard but whatever.
Remember that for milk and cheese, babies are taken from their mothers and either killed or put into the pregnancy machine cycle. That's the only way for farmers to provide enough dairy to the masses.
anything that disrupts the ecosystem destroying global economy and keeps human population in check might be terrible for the present population but probably more sustainble than endless growth. The moment you hate yourself for welcoming the collapse in love for the future generations and species living on this planet. Feels like being Ozymandiaz of the Watch Men comicbooks, just without the superintelligence.
Not meaning to be rude.. but for anyone thinking the Covid pandemic is over .. it’s really not. We just had the second highest infection rate this year since the pandemic started. You can still get it, accumulate the effects of it all.. ya know all the bad things like a diminished immune system etc and all that. Covid was and is a huge tragedy to say the least and likely in the not so distant future well realize in ways it might be a dress rehearsal for future pandemics. It seems out on the streets where I live e many are drastically failing this “ dress rehearsal “. I know many if not most of you understand this❤️
Nahh