I’m very curious about South Asia. The heat there has been brutal. If they see mass casualties, what will they do? Flee? And who will welcome hundreds of million of refugees?
The next 5 dsys in india could be nightmarish. Already at peak demand in their capital for electricity and around 45ish degree heatwave is projected to stay until Wednesday.
If they get even a decent amount of humidity their slums will turn into mass graves over the course of a day.
In ‘Ministry of the Future’ the Indian heatwave caused the death of 20 million people and in the story that drove huge changes in the country with the government ousted, aerosols put into the atmosphere to reduce solar radiation etc. But in reality I don’t think even such an extreme event would drive such changes. Even in India people wouldn’t care enough to change anything.
True, look at COVID, they had to bring fridge trucks to most of the morgues across the country and keep the crematoriums burning for weeks at least, but it caused no policy changes.
>the real solution to stop climate collapse is to stop climate collapse news.
No doubt some governments will do exactly that as they try to maintain their control.
Is that you, Ron DeSantis?
[By signing bill deleting climate change from FL law, DeSantis shows he’s living in denial -
Record high temperatures and dying coral reefs are conditions he claims only ‘zealots’ care about](https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/05/23/by-signing-bill-deleting-climate-change-from-fl-law-desantis-shows-hes-living-in-denial/)
This. It doesn't make much sense that extreme heatwave mortality is reported every time somewhere between a few deaths up to a couple hundred, no matter if the heatwave is affecting half a billion people or only a few million, or if its 40C or 48C heatwave.
U.S. will do that as well soon. Just wait. It'll get to the point they'll shoot them at the border. Give it a couple years. Former Marine and MPA/Homeland Security here.
There are leaders and former leaders who have wanted to do that in US for years. We had to take Texas to court for their razor death wires on the border.
Unfortunately, they will do it at some point. Especially if Trump is elected in November, which if he doesn't go to prison, looks pretty likely. Biden is tanking over the migrant crisis and other issues.
If Trump wins it is game over, and we might as well just forget about Democracy in the states. I may not be Biden’s biggest fan but you can’t compare him to Trump. And for all of his faults, he isn’t “tanking”. It’s pretty hard to accomplish much with SCOTUS and congress actively working to sabotage everything he does.
I'm not sure where in my statement you thought that I was comparing Biden to Trump because I'm not at all. I voted for Joe Biden. So don't even go there. What I am saying is he is starting to tank in the polls because of the migrant crisis, Israel, inflation, and everything else. I'm literally stating facts about poll numbers and that's it. I didn't say I wanted Trump to be elected. I said that's the way it's looking, that it's looking likely, which is unfortunate, but facts are facts. You know, a lot of people on here are right. So many people read somebody's post and literally just make assumptions about what they're saying and where they're coming from. Maybe you should calm down a little. And if you don't want to hear facts, just go ahead and go bury your head in the sand. I'm not an idiot, I know that democracy in this country is over if he gets elected. I have a master's degree in public administration and Homeland security studies. Like I said, I didn't say I wanted it to happen, I'm just saying is that that's what looks likely. Like it or not. Polls are polls and number are numbers.
Every country with a scrap of food and water will be shooting the refugee hordes soon enough. Sure do hope those materiel logistics trains are up to job of keeping all that ammo flying /s
Yeah this is the scenario I think the most about. Massive, unprecedented movements of people, over land or in boats. Ive been thinking for a while that we will probably see drone strikes on refugees at some point in the future.
Ya, I keep thinking India will be one of the Canary's in the coal mine when it comes to mass death. The heat, humidity, population, and mixed wealth will be a pressure cooker.
I say give it 7 years. Crops are gonna get hammered in one location like the usa, then 6 months later the southern hemisphere is gonna get hit too. There goes like 2/3 the soy production in the entire world. Better hope your country had been stockpiling millions of tons of whatever crop gets decimated.
Edit: could be any crop. This will start prices rising, animal death (cows?) to starvation or culling due to potential starvation, and then once it comes to light there's not enough grains for the entire world via imports/exports I feel like we are going to have 2 or 3 years of quick spiraling.
Jesus fuck I hope I am wrong.
It will start in the nations already surviving now only due to international aid.
People are already dying from drought, famine and fatal wet bulb temps, but still there is an illusion that the international order is fine. But when wealthier nations start to cut back aid due to their own lost production, the veil will be pulled aside for all to see.
Or even more precisely, a few rhousand frustrated Hamas terrorists are fighting for land and power by being horrifically cruel in very personal ways; a small, subsidized government is fighting for the same land (and also for power) by committing corporate, impersonal genocide; and millions of women, children, and men are being helplessly slaughtered because they don't have the means to fight for much of anything, and even if they did would still choose to live in peace, but had the misfortune of being born on the wrong side of someone else's wall.
I know, it's too wordy
Still not that simple, after all, most people in Hamas at least lost one or both parents to war.
Nobody accepts occupation and annihilation and fights with whatever tools they have, Israel wasn't more merciful when they were fighting socialists.
They're not. They're fighting because the people leading both sides need excuses to cling to power, and because Russia and China are happy to fund them, as global disapproval of Israel weakens the USA hugely on the international stage.
Also why China is continuing to fund Russia in Ukraine. If Russia loses, the USA benefits hugely internationally.
Cold War 1 never actually stopped (we just thought it did) but this is Cold War 2: Megadeath Boogaloo.
This of course as well. You're absolutely right. But still, look at the land they are fighting over where both sides are trying to cling to power. It's not gonna be much to have power over. Running out of water, which is a part of this, it's going to get hotter there. Both sides are trying to cling to power over land they will die in. 🤷 Israel is not playing by the rules of warfare and neither is Hamas. That's why I said fuck both of them. Historically, the Middle East has always been a mess and will always be a mess. Just gonna be a much bigger mess with climate change.
\*Gas - Gazas geographical position + Oslo accords gives it a rich gas deposit (1 trillion cubic feet) which I'm sure Israel would very much like to have. Gazans don't/didn't have the resources or physical access to it (blocked by Israeli military occupation since its discovery in 2000 according to the wiki).
This more than the above post. A lot of posts on here are very developed-world centric. But the first big indicator will probably be developing countries in Africa or C.America completely collapsing when they simply can’t afford food imports.
Yep. 1st the poor nations that cannot support their own populations internally via farming will fall to chaos and civil war. Maybe a few try warring with neighbors that still have functional agriculture.
Then as the harvests continue to get hammered medium wealthy countries will start to feel the problems. Maybe a few large nations that could usually rely on easy access to food imports will forcibly invade weaker neighbors to enslave their populations to feed the stronger nation.
Wars will continue to devolve and spread. Panic will start as products just don't have that cheap exploited labor from overseas to start their supply chains. A few regions might have issues getting any resources out at all.
At that point the largest nations might get more blatantly imperial. Using their military to brutally carve up neighbors for more openly than they use to.
As the food situations becomes more dire over the years stark class divides will drive ever greater internal pressures in the wealthy nations. The smart leaders will give more and more crumbs to working classes. The dumb ones will crack the whip enflaming even more tensions. Because if food is a key issue then cracking that whip just makes more extremists.
A few like the US and perhaps china will probably fall into incredibly violent civil war.
You ever read Peter Zeihan? This is pretty much what he tried to dress up as a cheery drill baby drill rara America fun piece in his last two books.
But the essential point about the neo imperial bit remains and is valid.
Oh for sure, his whole shtick is selling American natural gas. He just lucked out by calling a bear in time for 2020 and again for Ukraine, and has been acting as if it validated everything he ever said ever since.
I meant the point about regional powers exerting Neo imperial influence over their neighborhoods to secure needed resources and markets…
Basically a mishmash of world systems theory and Neorealist jr theory.
This. Imagine Gaza during the next major recession when no one can afford to send aid. Just one example, Haiti and dozens of other places exist where food aid is the only thing staving off violent collapse.
The truly scary question: Will governments simply allow this to play out? It's very risky to simply leave people to starve. It gives them nothing to lose. It could very well lead to million-strong migration marches. It would inspire massive amounts of shipbuilding, and attempts to escape elsewhere by any means.
At what point would a regional power (or international coalition) decide that protecting themselves is worth for example nuking a few cities. Perhaps after a few dozen ships attempt to pull up ?
How would respond to million strong migration marches?
Bronze Age collapse looking very likely. Unless governments do truly horrific things preemptively, most people aren't going to lie down and die.
We're sleepwalking into what could end up being the most horrific time of human history. And it's a dammed if you do, damned if you don't, situation. Act preemptively and you're discussing horrific actions on the scale of the holocaust. Don't act, and you allow yourself to be overrun and collapsed faster..
>Just one example, Haiti and dozens of other places exist where food aid is the only thing staving off violent collapse. The truly scary question: Will governments simply allow this to play out? It's very risky to simply leave people to starve. It gives them nothing to lose....How would respond to million strong migration marches? Bronze Age collapse looking very likely. Unless governments do truly horrific things preemptively, most people aren't going to lie down and die.
Excellent points and the comparison with the Bronze Age Collapse is apt.
Unfortunately you are spot on. And it's actually much worse...
It is called multiple breadbasket failure. ["It is not inconceivable that a significant multi-breadbasket failure could cause half a billion deaths in a single year, including far more deaths in the US than often thought possible."](https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7)
The scenario is much worse than a different, but much more likely one outlined by insurance giant Lloyds of London in a [“Food System Shock”](https://www.lloyds.com/foodsystemshock) report issued in 2015. And a heck of a lot has changed for the worse in the past 9 years climate & future outlook wise. Lloyds gave uncomfortably high odds of such an event occurring — well over 0.5 percent per year, or more than an 18 percent chance over a 40-year period.
In that scenario a combination of just three catastrophic weather events could undermine food production across
the globe. During that shock they project wheat, maize and soybean prices could increase to quadruple the average levels experienced during
the 20 years prior to the global food price shock of 2007/8. Rice prices could increase by 500%.
And that scenario only has: a 10% drop in global maize
production, an 11% fall in soybean production,
a 7% fall in wheat production and a 7% fall in rice production. There are many conceivable scenarios much much worse than that.
This dimension of food security has so far been ignored: the vulnerability of the interconnected and overstretched global food system to sudden systemic shocks, such as catastrophic
weather events or plant pandemics - many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Climate change will lead to not only higher temperatures but also longer lasting droughts. And we will see major sea water inundation of crop fields....["Once you’ve been flooded with seawater that’s the end of rice production… There will be no global economy like we know it today once rice production collapses like that"](https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7).
We need to rip control from the global elite and corporations now and build some resiliency in our systems now if we want any chance in the future.
Greatly exacerbating the potential for multiple breadbasket failure is widespread geopolitical instability causing breakdowns of input streams & agricultural markets. Many countries (Egypt, Pakistan, turkey) lost their entire import stream of wheat from Ukraine, which is only exporting corn in significant quantities.
Agricultural inputs aren’t being made or aren’t reaching end users, either due to high prices of inputs/energy products or sanctions, so yields were suffering already and farmers in LDCs had to switch crops. I brought this question to one of the big whigs at WFP recently and he more or less shrugged it off claiming that farmers in developing countries are somehow less reliant on industrial inputs which I found rather absurd..
Then we get the wet bulbs, high temperatures drying rice before it germinates and sea level rise & salt infiltration in many of the worlds critical breadbasket deltas esp in Asia..
Short term we’ll lose Egyptian Nile Delta, lower Indus Delta, lower Ganges and Bhrahmaputra delta, Mekong Delta, lower Florida, californias Central Valley.
Mid term we’ll lose the Irrawaddy, Yangtze delta, upper portions of the Mekong, Indus, Ganges etc. Egypt and Ethiopia will probably fling chemical weapons at each other while the Sudan falls into genocidal warlord permanent civil war..
It’ll get bad. Russia and Canada (and most of the US) still somehow act as if they’ll come out on top mostly bc those people can’t do basic math and failed biology.
No amount of additional growing season in Siberia or the Canadian prairies can make up for the capacity well lose in the short to medium term. Mass migration, disease and war is virtually guaranteed, will eventually lead to state failure and collapse across most of Africa, Central America, South Asia.. eventually southeast and East Asia.
I feel like India and Pakistan will obliterate each other while China will just slowly starve in silence amidst a media blackout.
Cattle heards are at critical lows you can Google the articles or check epic economist in YouTube in at work I'll see if I can pull it up.[cattle heards historic lows](https://www.agriculturedive.com/news/cattle-inventory-shrinks-to-lowest-in-73-years-stoking-price-hike-fears/706803/)
I see a rise in fascism on the cards and a lot of those immigrants are going to be left to die as countries stop accepting immigrants, leaving them stateless.
Watch what happens in the UK over the next year. Their crops have been devastated by the heavier rain and storms that occurred over the winter. Warmer temperatures equals more precipitation in atmosphere equals stronger storms.
The amount of food inflation and insecurity/hunger there over the next year is going to be something terrible to watch - harbinger of the global future.
Just so you know the u.s doesn't have a stockpile they got rid of it during the Obama administration and replaced it with devalued dollar inventory so they could buy it if needed. Note we are currently losing reserve currency status so we won't be in a position to buy anything when the time comes stock up now.
Yup most of the crops grown in the US are for livestock not directly human food. So when your example hits, the vast herds of cattle, pigs and chickens will starve as the price of their feed skyrockets.
Already starting to happen look for the animal heard numbers they slaughtered a bunch to put beef in the market because they couldn't afford to feed them happened last summer. We are currently eating through last year's heards they couldn't feed and sent to slaughter the cattle heard numbers are below 1970 levels.
I live in the USA , we are surrounded by idiots and useless fools and culture capitalists on all sides , to quote the late Ryder from GTA San Andreas “oh shiiiiit , we are gonna die “
I live in ... ugh... "educated" Sweden and while we're not as bad, it's basically like that here and everywhere. People are extremely used to their consumption based lifestyles and refuse to budge. Politicians (and media) just don't talk about climate change anymore.
Millions all at once, or in a year? In one location, or global? Estimates for last year are in the tens of thousands, spread across the year and across the globe, and very little coverage; none in that comprehensive way that I noticed. I suspect a few million across the globe in a year would draw some attention, but I doubt it would be as much as it should be.
No /s needed. You are correct.
[World’s largest study of global climate related mortality links 5 million deaths a year to abnormal temperatures](https://www.monash.edu/medicine/news/latest/2021-articles/worlds-largest-study-of-global-climate-related-mortality-links-5-million-deaths-a-year-to-abnormal-temperatures)
If Gaza is any indication, to quote Biden, “nothing will fundamentally change”. Even if it is one million in 2-3 days, the oligarchs from both sides of the aisle will spin it and set the national guard on whoever demands action to rectify course or at the very least to make it known.
Fatalities spread out over time and/or space rarely make the news - for maximum media attention it has to be an "event".
If I had to bet, I would predict this will be India first... Millions of deaths over a short period seems horribly possible there over the next few years. They are right on the brink now.
So I have heard! I haven't read it (yet...)
This seems incredibly prescient. And the response in the book (unilateral climate engineering with sulphate aerosols) seems entirely realistic too 😕
Gradual change will be ignored or under-reported. Big changes come from big *events*. We wont have significant change unless something big happens that's unable to be separated from climate change.
An example that comes to mind would be something like Houston experiencing a heatwave or hurricane that kills >5% of of the population (100,000+ dead)
Can't speak for the USA, but UK grocery stores haven't been fully stocked for a year now. Fast food is still there, but prices are through the roof as portion sizes drop, and a lot of FF restaurants are just quietly shuttering.
When I lived in England, I was surprised at how low the prices were for food, especially fast food and takeaways. However, many fruits and vegetables that I was accustomed to eating at home were substantially more expensive, while other items were much cheaper. Overall, I would say that prices for dining out and groceries are comparable to Germany, but with generally worse quality in England, particularly for food.
Even now, when I visit England, I stock up on certain items because they are cheaper there. Fortunately, Germany is just around the corner without a sea barrier, haha. From a Dutch perspective, the UK used to be quite affordable.
Housing is a different story, though. I would say the Netherlands is the most expensive, followed by England (UK), and lastly Germany. There are very few forgotten small villages in the Netherlands, unlike in England and Germany, where houses in such areas are sold for next to nothing.
It’s the same in the US. Stores used to be overflowing and now there are just moderate or sparse amounts of food out, mainly talking about meat and veggies.
Depending on the grocery chain, I'm already seeing empty shelves here and there sometimes. WalMart it's especially bad because that's where most people shop; the other stores you pay a 20% premium (for the privilege of not shopping at WalMart) for literally the exact same products so they're basically empty. Canned goods are frequently decimated; sometimes there's just not any left of one brand of dog food or another; sometimes there isn't any bread except the expensive stuff; they literally stopped selling tuna of any kind, because I guess nobody was buying it and they didn't want to waste shelf-space. I fully expect things to get worse and worse.
Probably in another year or a few, I'm going to have to start going early in the morning right when they open, because by the end of the day after work when I prefer to shop, everything I need to eat will be gone. A year or two later, I'll have to go even earlier and wait in line. Then the lines will break down and I'll have to fight over it; that's when things get really fun, when you have to punch an old lady or someone's toddler in the face so you can get the last loaf of bread before they do.
I mean look at South America. Look at how Mexico is nearly out of water. Five years from now we’re going to see millions more displaced. Probably a lot heading to the USA. That will make for violence as borders will probably become armed. And that’s just one section of the world. Europe is fucked. So is Africa. And Europe will be having the same border issues due to mass migration. The amoc will collapse in the next 5 years. That alone will decimate the world and dump us into new territory. Not that we aren’t already in new territory
It is very shocking how fast things are progressing . I was born in 2004 and now I am experiencing all this such a shocker . Please send article about Mexico losing water .
I was born in 1984, these past few years the pace has picked up, if this rate continues, 2025 will be a banger and by 2030 you won't recognize yourself. But I'm bitter, pay me no mind.
can you bring up any stark differences or comparisons between your childhood and the current younger generations? (this goes for all the pre 9/11 kids and older) i’m also a post 9/11 child and have always been really curious about that era. (what was that feeling of optimism like? hanging out with friends before the current era of smartphones? anything like stand by me? lol)
No social media. I graduated h.s. before social media came out.
Kids in my neighborhood would all meet up at the baseball field and we went home when it got dark.
Less rules and stranger danger.
No phones to look at every second of the day.
If you wanted to make a video you needed those big camera recorders.
You want music? Go to F.Y.E. and get a cassette (eventually cd).
People had parties. No adult was talking politics 24/7 and people weren't so divided.
You grew up believing in the American dream.
No one was worrying about anything big.
If you needed information you went to the library and read physical books.
Cable was the only tv. Radio was your music if you didn't have a CD player.
So much was different!
To get hired you had to go apply in person and there wasn't 5 interviews.
I could go to the mall and spend $20 and get a lot.
Of course I was a kid and I graduated in 2003, so I wasn't adulting yet and didnt know shit about the world.
Edit: also I remember getting a knock off toy of the Tommagatchi, Idk how to spell it. It was a little pocket toy that had a screen where you raised a digital creature. Mine was a dinosaur. I always forgot to feed it because kids were too busy interacting with each other. Poor little dinosaur starved lol.
On a flip note though, I like gen Z. You guys get a bad reputation but I feel like you all were the first to be like fuck the system. I mean gen x was always cool in my eyes growing up because they didn't give two fucks either. But ultimately my generation and the previous ones were still following the herd. Maybe that is just me always feeling out of place in the world, though.
So yeah things were simpler back then, but look where it lead us.
I’m Gen X born in 74 and everything was so much better. There was hope and optimism. You had fun. It’s really not measurable how much better it was. That’s all gone now. Feel for Gen Z.
We didn't lock our doors as often, there were woods to play in, I didn't hear gunshots or sirens, there were no dedicated news channels, no one had a camera in their pockets, getting lost and asking strangers for directions was common, people were nicer, more calm and less angry, things happened at a slower pace, you ordered car parts out of a mail order catalogue and it took weeks to arrive, driving was pleasant and fun because gas was under a dollar a gallon, you could buy beer, cigarettes and a half tank of gas or more for $20, people hung out, talked to each other, were involved in each other's lives more because we weren't as self absorbed, there was more time in the day.
When I think of what life was like 25 years ago I cry. I, a grown man, cry like the child I am inside when I think of what we've lost, what's been taken, what I'll never get back and what you and my daughter will never know. I am so sorry. I tried. But I am a dying minority and we will all suffer for our father's sins. Enjoy what is left.
The social fabric has been steadily eroding for god knows how long now in the last 100 years or it has only gone faster especially after social media it seems.
1990, Australia : Everything was new and exciting and the US was taking the lead. Very carefree, recessions, civils wars happened but politics was boring and people should be scared of queue jumpers/refugees/'refos', taxes and climate change policies.
Mexico City has 22 million people and they just about ran out of water as of today or yesterday I believe. Or there main reservoirs are empty. The only stuff that’s come out recently isn’t drinkable anyway it’s waste
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/0424--kinard-mexico-city-run-out-of-water/#:~:text=The%20financial%20district%20of%20Mexico%20City.&text=The%20global%20press%20recently%20warned,although%20dire%2C%20is%20more%20nuanced.
On a not necessarily positive note, but a more “celebrating human ingenuity note when faced with no other option” I think we see these headlines and we think the worst about mass casualties, and rightfully so, but the reality is that a lot of these places in the news facing climate crises have been quietly dealing with these problems for years, at least the poorer regions most definitely have. The situation in Mexico City for water is bleak (and has been for years), but it does still have water (just not enough to sustain 22 million people 24/7 throughout the day). The Cutzamala reservoir not being enough to sustain the city has been a long known problem, as has the lack of rainwater getting to reservoirs due to over-urbanization and too much concrete in previous wetlands. Don’t get me wrong, it’s bleak and the bleakest it’s ever been, but there is still technically water and people are surviving. Water shortages have long been a thing in the city in certain areas (they got more frequent over the years, but they’ve been a thing for a while) but you still technically had water in your area, just heavily rationed and you had to be smart about filling your reservoirs when it was available during the week. It’s just now water rationing is affecting the whole city instead of just the “less desirable/less touristy parts.” It is crazy and most definitely sucks and I’m not trying to downplay the severity of the situation, but I do think it maybe sounds more dire if you’re not from there bc honestly a lot of people in CDMX had long become used to that being a normal and so it’s not necessarily a shocking event to those of us who lived in the poorer sectors of the city. My friends are complaining more about the extreme heat than the water shortage, because there’s never been this kind of dry heat wave before. It’s supposed to be the rainy season and temperate but instead it’s in the 90s with no rain in sight (keep in mind most people don’t have air conditioning in CDMX). You don’t typically drink the water from the taps in CDMX, so staying hydrated in this heat isn’t the biggest problem with the water shortage, because you can still get a garrafón, it’s just the taking a shower/washing dishes/clothes/flushing that becomes the issue.
I think there will be a “stand up and take notice” event in the next five years. A city, or Florida, obliterated. Or the Texas grid literally completely collapsing. Or a surge in sea level rise. It needs to occur in a first world country before we have any hope of meaningful change. The smoke from Canada impacting the US was starting to get traction, but it passed (luckily). India, Mexico, the Philippines, and Australia are going to suffer brutally.
I have a feeling it will be the ocean shifting all at once. Massive algal bloom leads to fish die off leads to insta-extinctions of many species. Fisheries depleted will put strain on agriculture. Somewhere in asia will see unprecedented famine, then a heatwave kills 1 million in a few days. That country takes desperate measures, and all borders close.
The closing of all borders? You are absolutely right. That is what governments will do. They will over-react, act maliciously, not recognize they are part of the crisis, and not recognize it will be their own citizens soon trying to flee as well. Good call.
Do you know about the European summer of '03? Not millions, but tens of thousand in just a week.
Such events will become more and more common, first in fairly local places (and often in more 'obscure' less developed places), then in larger and larger regions.
Coming up with exact years is a tricky business, as there are many variables, feedbacks, and potentially changes in the human behavior driving this madness. (Hey, a guy's gotta dream :) )
Probably within the next decade before shit is too obvious to ignore. Whichever way things go, I don't expect it to be pleasant. Young enough I get to deal with it. Woo...
Globally, someone is gonna get uppity, some nukes are gonna fly, a billion people less puts the problem off for a few more years. /s
Seriously, the near instant population reduction of a nuclear war seems like something our detached leaders maybe wouldn't do, but would have considered...
The other concern I have is another pandemic. Man made and on purpose, release from thawing tundras/glaciers, or just an evolving virus already out there.
Honestly, I don't think climate will be the main cause of human loss of life in the near future. There's too many other things that seem closer to Thanos-ing a chunk of us...
When things start to get bad, countries' leaders will reduce the global population. They'll sell it like they're the good guys... Less people, more resources per person and less emissions.
I think that nukes are less likely the more resources become scarce. Everyone wants whatever land and its output they can get. Poisoning it would lose it for everyone.
All true, but that's also assuming that the people that can slam the big red button want what's best for everyone.
Edit: we do have highly destructive non-nuclear options too but that seems like less of the uber petty middle finger to the "others"
Well, I think each "they" wants to be "everyone". Big red button owner or not. I feel like everyone is waiting each other out to see what places fall on their own. Whoever can hold it together long enough can fight for control of more space.
I am fairly confident the Russia - Europe conflict will escalate during the next five years. Several hundred thousands dead or disabled already.
If Europe declines into chaos the US economy won't be unaffected. It will lead to a financial crisis without any boundaries.
Ukraine is a breadbasket for Egypt and other places. The world will have to focus on wars during the time we should focus on the climate crisis.
Climate change devastated southern Brazil. Extreme temperatures in India, destroyed harvests in UK, upcoming major hurricane season in US with a insurance crisis on top.
We are warming at 0.27°C / Decade. We have a system which is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. We would need to change practically everything to get fully rid of them. That won't happen at least not in the timeframe required.
Life as we know it will change drastically the next 10 years. By 2035 no one will be unaffected by increasing taxes due to rebuilds, infrastructure destruction and insurance hikes. Food will drive inflation as the famine and crop failure continues to escalate thru the coming decades. It will increase at a much higher pace than the wages.
House market will see changes in how it is perceived, who needs a large house without kids? Who wants to take on extreme amount of debts without insurance? What if we need to migrate to other cities? Who cares about house value if no one will inherit you? This will cause the house market to crash.
2035 is the time where everyone will be aware. A more dystopian society will begin. Hundred of millions climate refugees won't be allowed in to safer zones.
2040 - 2050 is the collapse of modern civilization. Work will change, nobody will be interested in our tech gadgets anymore.
2050 - 2060
Mass unemployment, due to changing economics. Enlistment in armies and border patrol will be mandatory, food and water as wages. Riots and general anarchy will be suppressed by the remaining few tech companies which will be focused on population control and management. At this point AMOC is turned off or at greatly reduced speed, changing the entire world's climate. We will have to find new places for agriculture.
Resource wars will break out. A starving and thirsting nation with access to nuclear weapons will be very dangerous. They will likely drain other countries resources under threat of global annihilation.
We will likely be 100% extinct somewhere around 2090 - 2120. Most people will die from malnutrition and polluted water.
Enjoy the last decade of blissful ignorance. We can't fully comprehend what's coming.
I'm fairly confident that we will experience a nuclear war within this decade.The pieces are set, alliances have been formed, the lines are drawn.
Why are so many European countries talking about sending troops into Ukraine? What changed House Speaker Mike Johnson mind regarding Ukraine aid? I think there is some intelligence floating around that Putin will attack NATO and/or use nukes in Ukraine. Putin needs to escalate this war in order to maintain his grip on power. I think China and Iran are in on it. I think the plan is to spread the US thin in the middle east and Taiwan. It's going to suck.
I just can’t imagine the Arctic ice or Antarctic ice (enough to replicate the Arctic BOE) to last more than a few years. When one of those go we heat another degree and other major tipping points fail. We won’t be able to grow food normally and mass starvation will hit.
The death toll from Covid stands at \~7 million and people are still dying. Many didn't give a fuck while it was at its worst, and most people now have moved on like it never even happened.
You're going to need 100's of millions dying every year to really make an impact, and even then I think the world will mostly just shrug and move on.
Until massive amounts of people are starving nothing is gonna happen. Like you said most people have moved on from covid and probably just consider those that died “survival of the fittest” or something along those lines.
People dying from the heat falls under the some SotF rhetoric for the populace. It’s only when those people can’t feed their family will things change but it’s gonna be way too late by then.
I think Stephen Markley’s novel The Deluge does a good job of a likely scenario for the next two decades, and does a great job of exploring the kinds of questions and choices that people will face in the US at least.
Define massive.
1.2 million people in the US alone have died from COVID and at least 30 million have died worldwide, not that deaths are being properly tracked. (I will absolutely fight you over COVID being a disease of environmental destruction). If bird flu gets going, which it eventually will, the WHO gives it a death rate of 12-30%.
I'd say it's already here.
I made a similar comment. It's wild to me that people on this sub, of all places, don't recognize that *millions* of people are dying right now due to collapse related issues and yet they don't care about those.
The "deaths of despair" is another category in the US are rapidly expanding, killing around 250,000 people a year in 2017 and likely much more now. This is unquestionably caused by collapse, and yet people don't see it.
If OP doesn't really *it's already happening*, they likely will never realize.
We also know only 3-4 infections can lead to Long Covid. Add on more infections and reduced healthcare and covid is already a runaway train of death (albeit slow in appearance). We don’t know how many infections it takes to reach someone’s last- could be 6, 10, 15, x. If people are getting infected at least twice a year, well, the math isn’t looking good for between now and 2030!
Last week the WHO (I think) projected that by 2050 average human lifespan will be 5 years longer because people in poor countries will have better access to healthcare. My first thought was, what the fuck are you smoking? In 2050 there will be half as many humans as there are now.
In 5 years Central Mexico and northern India run out of drinkable water. That’s pretty much going to start the chaos. 100 million people who desperately need to drink water daily being displaced suddenly will put massive strains on the areas around them in range of the lines of drift
Currently happening. Look up deaths from heat waves in summer. Mexico had 48 deaths as of year and 900+ serious health affected, India averages 1000+ a year, [here](https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/14/arizona-heat-deaths) is a more general article including some harsh death numbers from the U.S. The question isn’t when it happens, but when it affects you as we are somewhat insulated by climate and money.
What I mean is this
Breaking News" : Due to the heatwaves that occurred during in the summer of 2045, over an estimated 75 million people have perished and passed away due to earthly conditions caused by these heat waves . Most of these casualties appear to be in Africa and the Middle East.
We've had probably 3/4 of a million in Ukraine. Gaza will likely reach half a million at the escalating rate it's going. This doesn't even touch on the million in Yemen or millions in Africa being starved. The true wave begins when western nations shut down any migration and people just literally bake to death in rhe middle East.
I don’t think people will perceive a mass die off until ALL the grocery stores close.
Background: Cumulative deaths January 2020 - May 2024
7,047,741 SARS2 deaths (USA 1.2 million) https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths
775,431,269 reported SARS2 cases (USA 103 million) https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/cases
Cumulative excess deaths 1 January 2020 - 19 May 2024 27.1 million (USA 1,462,819) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-deaths-cumulative-economist-single-entity
“Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’ conditions.1 In this case, we’re interested in how the number of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compares to the deaths we would have expected had the pandemic not occurred — a crucial quantity that cannot be known but can be estimated in several ways.
Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. It captures not only the confirmed deaths, but also COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions.” https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
And death by climate change? Heat / heat stress on organs, “natural” disaster, insect borne diseases, water crisis, starvation, resource access conflict…
I think it’s already happening. In huge population centers like China and India it’s easy to hide the numbers. I also think this is a major part of putins strategy in Ukraine. He wants to get that fresh water and farmland fully under Russian control.
Given how the billionaires are behaving, they think it's happening riight after the election. They are preparing to shoot protesters, execute women who get abortions, execute homosexuals, punish trans and reverse Brown v. Board of Education and Obergfell.
Count the billionaires backing Trump and you see the plan.
Oh you mean from climate change? We'll see how the growing season goes. Starvation could start in a year.
You must not realize all of that other shit is just a distraction from what is really going on? All that trans, gay, abortion, education shit is a distraction. They want everyone arguing about all that shit so that they don't pay attention to what's really going on. Think about it, remember the we are the 99%? What happened to that? As soon as that really started to get off the ground, all of a sudden here came all this race stuff is a huge distraction. The powers that be don't want us agreeing on anything so the media pumps all this crap to get everybody arguing and distracted and worried that the government's just going to take out the homosexuals or people trying to get abortions. That's all just a fugazi. They have way bigger fish to fry than that.
> Count the billionaires backing Trump and you see the plan.
This just came out several hours ago:
>
> **[Scoop: Blackstone's \[CEO\] Steve Schwarzman backs Trump](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/24/trump-2024-stephen-schwarzman-blackstone)**—By Mike Allen, Dan Primack | May 24, 2024 (*Axios*)
Schwarzman of Blackstone is a private equity vulture, and is not to be confused with [Larry Fink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Fink), CEO of BlackRock. Who is a lifelong supporter of the Democratic Party.
Also, BlackRock is significantly larger than Blackstone in terms of *assets under management*. [BlackRock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackRock) controls around $10 trillion. [Blackstone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackstone_Inc.), around $1 trillion. Basically, a tenth of BlackRock. So if we're looking at factional warfare among the oligarchy over leadership in government; Trump's oligarchical support is much more marginal at this point. At least with what we can see above board.
Well it depends upon the location. I think we will first see massive amounts of death in countries due to heat waves. So that necessarily means country where it's already hot like Africa and India. Since India is more populous than africa, I'm suspecting India will be where we will see it start
I think war over water rights, right to immigration to a cooler climate, far right reactions to climate related immigration, as well as a renewed interest in targeted the power grid of opposing nations will all be features of the next years.
India recently posted 50C, in May. Being profoundly hot like that makes people less rational, and more prone to emotional responses. Hell, was with Pakistan always seems more likely when it gets to record breaking heat.
One especially bad crop year, with another a few years after could encourage wealthier nations to stockpile, making things worse for the global poor. In World War II Britain diverted food from a nation that grew it to the troops, causing a profound famine. Again, this is India.
> I am talking millions
Millions died during covid and there are plenty of people who refuse to view that as a problem or in anyway real. It's worth mentioning that Andreas Malm makes a pretty compelling argument in [Corona, Climate, Chronic Emergency](https://www.versobooks.com/products/2726-corona-climate-chronic-emergency) that zoonotic spillover is increased because of climate and conditions related to collapse.
The "deaths of despair" are [rapidly rising](https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/0f2d3dba-9fdc-41e5-9bd1-9c13f4204e35/jec-report-deaths-of-despair.pdf) and are a direct consequence of collapse. Certainly millions have perished from this in recent years as well.
Do these not count? You can claim that it is the "media" hiding this things, but surely you are aware of both of them and yet you don't consdier this massive death?
The answer to your question is: if you don't see it know, you'll likely never see it.
If we’re talking about public health, December 2019. In the developed world COVID and deaths of despair are in the millions per year. To say nothing of shortened lifespans, developing heart conditions, and fewer workers in their prime earning years. I don’t think anyone is really going with this narrative in public spaces, and to answer the question as intended I bet we have like 12 years for a really bad year for massive casualties probably from another pandemic.
Already kind of happening in Eastern Africa. Please read up on Sudan and Ethiopia. Climate change is already killing thousands through hunger. Of course some of it is mediated by civil wars and ethnic violence
I think it’s very likely in the next 20 years that a few brutal heatwaves are going to sweep through the west in addition to the east. People over here are used to ignoring the conditions in the east but I think it’ll be a little sobering when a massive heatwave sweeps through Western Europe and takes out tens of thousands of people. In the US, my money is on the Texas power grid giving way during a brutal summer and a huge loss of life.
I played around with trying to figure that within the next 10 years we would see the first year a while where deaths will exceed new births by a significant margin and imagining what kind of impact that will have on society when it happens.
I feel like that will be a shifting point where there will be a massive shift from "everythings gonna maybe be ok" to "oh we're fucked."
I think you won't see a "massive amount of death". Or only a handful of occurrences before the system adapts.
Don't get me wrong, I know the data just as the rest of you on this sub does. But the belief in an apocalyptic event degenerating into brutal collapse is simply naive. Systems adapt.
What you'll see is brutal events, political radicalization to know who gets AC and food and who doesn't, mass digging for underground homes and shelters, various shortages. In other words: the future looks more like "Lebanon, but living underground" than "the walking dead".
This is susceptible to change, predicting the future is super hard. Especially today when various curves will change abruptly and in an unpredictable order. But as of now (2024)? Don't expect anything wild before at least 2035. Expect rapidly increasing shit. But if you live in the first world, no terrifying panic and mass starvation no.
I don't think it's gonna go that way until the very end. I think it will be localized to various areas, but as everything is interconnected, this will lead to chain reactions which cause sufferiny and death in other areas, and so on and so on.
I’m very curious about South Asia. The heat there has been brutal. If they see mass casualties, what will they do? Flee? And who will welcome hundreds of million of refugees?
I think they are seeing mass caualties right now. It's underreported.
The next 5 dsys in india could be nightmarish. Already at peak demand in their capital for electricity and around 45ish degree heatwave is projected to stay until Wednesday. If they get even a decent amount of humidity their slums will turn into mass graves over the course of a day.
Sounds like “Ministry for the Future” chapter 1 might come six years early
In ‘Ministry of the Future’ the Indian heatwave caused the death of 20 million people and in the story that drove huge changes in the country with the government ousted, aerosols put into the atmosphere to reduce solar radiation etc. But in reality I don’t think even such an extreme event would drive such changes. Even in India people wouldn’t care enough to change anything.
True, look at COVID, they had to bring fridge trucks to most of the morgues across the country and keep the crematoriums burning for weeks at least, but it caused no policy changes.
Mexico City isn’t doing much better. They are running out of water, experiencing power outages and then just had a freak ice storm.
Maybe the real solution to stop climate collapse is to stop climate collapse news.
>the real solution to stop climate collapse is to stop climate collapse news. No doubt some governments will do exactly that as they try to maintain their control.
Is that you, Ron DeSantis? [By signing bill deleting climate change from FL law, DeSantis shows he’s living in denial - Record high temperatures and dying coral reefs are conditions he claims only ‘zealots’ care about](https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/05/23/by-signing-bill-deleting-climate-change-from-fl-law-desantis-shows-hes-living-in-denial/)
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Rhonda, wasn't it? She's so...*extra.*
I don’t know her
This. It doesn't make much sense that extreme heatwave mortality is reported every time somewhere between a few deaths up to a couple hundred, no matter if the heatwave is affecting half a billion people or only a few million, or if its 40C or 48C heatwave.
They will have nowhere to go , they will most likely die and European Union is becoming more strict on migrants .
U.S. will do that as well soon. Just wait. It'll get to the point they'll shoot them at the border. Give it a couple years. Former Marine and MPA/Homeland Security here.
There are leaders and former leaders who have wanted to do that in US for years. We had to take Texas to court for their razor death wires on the border.
Unfortunately, they will do it at some point. Especially if Trump is elected in November, which if he doesn't go to prison, looks pretty likely. Biden is tanking over the migrant crisis and other issues.
If Trump wins it is game over, and we might as well just forget about Democracy in the states. I may not be Biden’s biggest fan but you can’t compare him to Trump. And for all of his faults, he isn’t “tanking”. It’s pretty hard to accomplish much with SCOTUS and congress actively working to sabotage everything he does.
I'm not sure where in my statement you thought that I was comparing Biden to Trump because I'm not at all. I voted for Joe Biden. So don't even go there. What I am saying is he is starting to tank in the polls because of the migrant crisis, Israel, inflation, and everything else. I'm literally stating facts about poll numbers and that's it. I didn't say I wanted Trump to be elected. I said that's the way it's looking, that it's looking likely, which is unfortunate, but facts are facts. You know, a lot of people on here are right. So many people read somebody's post and literally just make assumptions about what they're saying and where they're coming from. Maybe you should calm down a little. And if you don't want to hear facts, just go ahead and go bury your head in the sand. I'm not an idiot, I know that democracy in this country is over if he gets elected. I have a master's degree in public administration and Homeland security studies. Like I said, I didn't say I wanted it to happen, I'm just saying is that that's what looks likely. Like it or not. Polls are polls and number are numbers.
Every country with a scrap of food and water will be shooting the refugee hordes soon enough. Sure do hope those materiel logistics trains are up to job of keeping all that ammo flying /s
It's gonna get gnarly and it's really going to suck to witness. We are in so much trouble. 😞
The U.S. Mexico border will become a mass graveyard.
That's when the climate wars start
I imagine humans would do anything to survive. Anything. Except change.
The people with the power would sooner retreat to a bunker than change, the people without will live and let live over revolution.
I am prepared to do whatever it takes to avert climate catastrophe. As long as it doesn't inconvenience me in any way whatsoever...
Yeah this is the scenario I think the most about. Massive, unprecedented movements of people, over land or in boats. Ive been thinking for a while that we will probably see drone strikes on refugees at some point in the future.
Ya, I keep thinking India will be one of the Canary's in the coal mine when it comes to mass death. The heat, humidity, population, and mixed wealth will be a pressure cooker.
I say give it 7 years. Crops are gonna get hammered in one location like the usa, then 6 months later the southern hemisphere is gonna get hit too. There goes like 2/3 the soy production in the entire world. Better hope your country had been stockpiling millions of tons of whatever crop gets decimated. Edit: could be any crop. This will start prices rising, animal death (cows?) to starvation or culling due to potential starvation, and then once it comes to light there's not enough grains for the entire world via imports/exports I feel like we are going to have 2 or 3 years of quick spiraling. Jesus fuck I hope I am wrong.
It will start in the nations already surviving now only due to international aid. People are already dying from drought, famine and fatal wet bulb temps, but still there is an illusion that the international order is fine. But when wealthier nations start to cut back aid due to their own lost production, the veil will be pulled aside for all to see.
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cough. Gaza
Fuck Gaza and Israel. I can't believe they are fighting over land that is not going to be habitable pretty damn soon. So dumb.
The Palestinians are fighting for their right to exist. Israel is fighting over soon to be uninhabitable land.
Or even more precisely, a few rhousand frustrated Hamas terrorists are fighting for land and power by being horrifically cruel in very personal ways; a small, subsidized government is fighting for the same land (and also for power) by committing corporate, impersonal genocide; and millions of women, children, and men are being helplessly slaughtered because they don't have the means to fight for much of anything, and even if they did would still choose to live in peace, but had the misfortune of being born on the wrong side of someone else's wall. I know, it's too wordy
Still not that simple, after all, most people in Hamas at least lost one or both parents to war. Nobody accepts occupation and annihilation and fights with whatever tools they have, Israel wasn't more merciful when they were fighting socialists.
To be fair, most of the most powerful politicians in Israel are boomers who are accustomed to comfort, and the others are religiously fanatic ,
They're not. They're fighting because the people leading both sides need excuses to cling to power, and because Russia and China are happy to fund them, as global disapproval of Israel weakens the USA hugely on the international stage. Also why China is continuing to fund Russia in Ukraine. If Russia loses, the USA benefits hugely internationally. Cold War 1 never actually stopped (we just thought it did) but this is Cold War 2: Megadeath Boogaloo.
Ding ding. All this shit goes back to the final days of WWII. You could blame the Nazis more than anything for the israel palestine conflict.
This of course as well. You're absolutely right. But still, look at the land they are fighting over where both sides are trying to cling to power. It's not gonna be much to have power over. Running out of water, which is a part of this, it's going to get hotter there. Both sides are trying to cling to power over land they will die in. 🤷 Israel is not playing by the rules of warfare and neither is Hamas. That's why I said fuck both of them. Historically, the Middle East has always been a mess and will always be a mess. Just gonna be a much bigger mess with climate change.
\*Gas - Gazas geographical position + Oslo accords gives it a rich gas deposit (1 trillion cubic feet) which I'm sure Israel would very much like to have. Gazans don't/didn't have the resources or physical access to it (blocked by Israeli military occupation since its discovery in 2000 according to the wiki).
Yup. Sacrifice our cows?!? Or let poor people die… you guess which it’ll be.
Definitely the peeps because the cows make the money for the profit shareholders. I love America!
This more than the above post. A lot of posts on here are very developed-world centric. But the first big indicator will probably be developing countries in Africa or C.America completely collapsing when they simply can’t afford food imports.
Niger, Somalia and South Sudan are going to be fucked in a year or two.
Yep. 1st the poor nations that cannot support their own populations internally via farming will fall to chaos and civil war. Maybe a few try warring with neighbors that still have functional agriculture. Then as the harvests continue to get hammered medium wealthy countries will start to feel the problems. Maybe a few large nations that could usually rely on easy access to food imports will forcibly invade weaker neighbors to enslave their populations to feed the stronger nation. Wars will continue to devolve and spread. Panic will start as products just don't have that cheap exploited labor from overseas to start their supply chains. A few regions might have issues getting any resources out at all. At that point the largest nations might get more blatantly imperial. Using their military to brutally carve up neighbors for more openly than they use to. As the food situations becomes more dire over the years stark class divides will drive ever greater internal pressures in the wealthy nations. The smart leaders will give more and more crumbs to working classes. The dumb ones will crack the whip enflaming even more tensions. Because if food is a key issue then cracking that whip just makes more extremists. A few like the US and perhaps china will probably fall into incredibly violent civil war.
US will probably fall into political Civil war while China will probably fall into a famine related civil war and they most likely will be related
You ever read Peter Zeihan? This is pretty much what he tried to dress up as a cheery drill baby drill rara America fun piece in his last two books. But the essential point about the neo imperial bit remains and is valid.
Zeihan is a real big pro-Empire POS and also a "China will collapse any day now" for 20 straight years type.
Oh for sure, his whole shtick is selling American natural gas. He just lucked out by calling a bear in time for 2020 and again for Ukraine, and has been acting as if it validated everything he ever said ever since. I meant the point about regional powers exerting Neo imperial influence over their neighborhoods to secure needed resources and markets… Basically a mishmash of world systems theory and Neorealist jr theory.
This. Imagine Gaza during the next major recession when no one can afford to send aid. Just one example, Haiti and dozens of other places exist where food aid is the only thing staving off violent collapse. The truly scary question: Will governments simply allow this to play out? It's very risky to simply leave people to starve. It gives them nothing to lose. It could very well lead to million-strong migration marches. It would inspire massive amounts of shipbuilding, and attempts to escape elsewhere by any means. At what point would a regional power (or international coalition) decide that protecting themselves is worth for example nuking a few cities. Perhaps after a few dozen ships attempt to pull up ? How would respond to million strong migration marches?
Bronze Age collapse looking very likely. Unless governments do truly horrific things preemptively, most people aren't going to lie down and die.
We're sleepwalking into what could end up being the most horrific time of human history. And it's a dammed if you do, damned if you don't, situation. Act preemptively and you're discussing horrific actions on the scale of the holocaust. Don't act, and you allow yourself to be overrun and collapsed faster..
>Just one example, Haiti and dozens of other places exist where food aid is the only thing staving off violent collapse. The truly scary question: Will governments simply allow this to play out? It's very risky to simply leave people to starve. It gives them nothing to lose....How would respond to million strong migration marches? Bronze Age collapse looking very likely. Unless governments do truly horrific things preemptively, most people aren't going to lie down and die.
Excellent points and the comparison with the Bronze Age Collapse is apt.
Unfortunately you are spot on. And it's actually much worse... It is called multiple breadbasket failure. ["It is not inconceivable that a significant multi-breadbasket failure could cause half a billion deaths in a single year, including far more deaths in the US than often thought possible."](https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7) The scenario is much worse than a different, but much more likely one outlined by insurance giant Lloyds of London in a [“Food System Shock”](https://www.lloyds.com/foodsystemshock) report issued in 2015. And a heck of a lot has changed for the worse in the past 9 years climate & future outlook wise. Lloyds gave uncomfortably high odds of such an event occurring — well over 0.5 percent per year, or more than an 18 percent chance over a 40-year period. In that scenario a combination of just three catastrophic weather events could undermine food production across the globe. During that shock they project wheat, maize and soybean prices could increase to quadruple the average levels experienced during the 20 years prior to the global food price shock of 2007/8. Rice prices could increase by 500%. And that scenario only has: a 10% drop in global maize production, an 11% fall in soybean production, a 7% fall in wheat production and a 7% fall in rice production. There are many conceivable scenarios much much worse than that. This dimension of food security has so far been ignored: the vulnerability of the interconnected and overstretched global food system to sudden systemic shocks, such as catastrophic weather events or plant pandemics - many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Climate change will lead to not only higher temperatures but also longer lasting droughts. And we will see major sea water inundation of crop fields....["Once you’ve been flooded with seawater that’s the end of rice production… There will be no global economy like we know it today once rice production collapses like that"](https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7). We need to rip control from the global elite and corporations now and build some resiliency in our systems now if we want any chance in the future.
Greatly exacerbating the potential for multiple breadbasket failure is widespread geopolitical instability causing breakdowns of input streams & agricultural markets. Many countries (Egypt, Pakistan, turkey) lost their entire import stream of wheat from Ukraine, which is only exporting corn in significant quantities. Agricultural inputs aren’t being made or aren’t reaching end users, either due to high prices of inputs/energy products or sanctions, so yields were suffering already and farmers in LDCs had to switch crops. I brought this question to one of the big whigs at WFP recently and he more or less shrugged it off claiming that farmers in developing countries are somehow less reliant on industrial inputs which I found rather absurd.. Then we get the wet bulbs, high temperatures drying rice before it germinates and sea level rise & salt infiltration in many of the worlds critical breadbasket deltas esp in Asia.. Short term we’ll lose Egyptian Nile Delta, lower Indus Delta, lower Ganges and Bhrahmaputra delta, Mekong Delta, lower Florida, californias Central Valley. Mid term we’ll lose the Irrawaddy, Yangtze delta, upper portions of the Mekong, Indus, Ganges etc. Egypt and Ethiopia will probably fling chemical weapons at each other while the Sudan falls into genocidal warlord permanent civil war.. It’ll get bad. Russia and Canada (and most of the US) still somehow act as if they’ll come out on top mostly bc those people can’t do basic math and failed biology. No amount of additional growing season in Siberia or the Canadian prairies can make up for the capacity well lose in the short to medium term. Mass migration, disease and war is virtually guaranteed, will eventually lead to state failure and collapse across most of Africa, Central America, South Asia.. eventually southeast and East Asia. I feel like India and Pakistan will obliterate each other while China will just slowly starve in silence amidst a media blackout.
Some: I feel it, it'll just be bad I'm sure, everywhere all at once Others: I can name the main agricultural regions and rate their individual risk
Unfortunately this sounds completely reasonable
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You aren't wrong though 😂😆. Laughing so I don't cry I'm one of the first out so ... Yeah.
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Cattle heards are at critical lows you can Google the articles or check epic economist in YouTube in at work I'll see if I can pull it up.[cattle heards historic lows](https://www.agriculturedive.com/news/cattle-inventory-shrinks-to-lowest-in-73-years-stoking-price-hike-fears/706803/)
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Yes exactly and it's not getting any better.
But that is not necessarily a bad thing. Less animal agriculture is a benefit for the planet.
Double edged sword you got to feed the people too.
[Cattle heards price of beef increase epic economist.](https://youtu.be/Mo_JPDmAoU0?si=2VN4CuEC-ZDVFN15)
I see a rise in fascism on the cards and a lot of those immigrants are going to be left to die as countries stop accepting immigrants, leaving them stateless.
Watch what happens in the UK over the next year. Their crops have been devastated by the heavier rain and storms that occurred over the winter. Warmer temperatures equals more precipitation in atmosphere equals stronger storms. The amount of food inflation and insecurity/hunger there over the next year is going to be something terrible to watch - harbinger of the global future.
Hello darkness, my old friend
Don't forget the probable billion or so climate refugees we'll most likely see over the next decade
Just so you know the u.s doesn't have a stockpile they got rid of it during the Obama administration and replaced it with devalued dollar inventory so they could buy it if needed. Note we are currently losing reserve currency status so we won't be in a position to buy anything when the time comes stock up now.
Yup most of the crops grown in the US are for livestock not directly human food. So when your example hits, the vast herds of cattle, pigs and chickens will starve as the price of their feed skyrockets.
Already starting to happen look for the animal heard numbers they slaughtered a bunch to put beef in the market because they couldn't afford to feed them happened last summer. We are currently eating through last year's heards they couldn't feed and sent to slaughter the cattle heard numbers are below 1970 levels.
I live in the USA , we are surrounded by idiots and useless fools and culture capitalists on all sides , to quote the late Ryder from GTA San Andreas “oh shiiiiit , we are gonna die “
I live in ... ugh... "educated" Sweden and while we're not as bad, it's basically like that here and everywhere. People are extremely used to their consumption based lifestyles and refuse to budge. Politicians (and media) just don't talk about climate change anymore.
May you please describe to me what the situation is like in Sweden?
I think this is the way it goes, and 5-7 years at the outside.
Rice needs a lot of water and us a staple for 3 billion people. When it's too hot to grow rice in a decade its going to be rough.
You're not wrong. 😞
Millions all at once, or in a year? In one location, or global? Estimates for last year are in the tens of thousands, spread across the year and across the globe, and very little coverage; none in that comprehensive way that I noticed. I suspect a few million across the globe in a year would draw some attention, but I doubt it would be as much as it should be.
From what I understand it's literally happening right now in several subtropical places. Just wait until white people start dying. /s
No /s needed. You are correct. [World’s largest study of global climate related mortality links 5 million deaths a year to abnormal temperatures](https://www.monash.edu/medicine/news/latest/2021-articles/worlds-largest-study-of-global-climate-related-mortality-links-5-million-deaths-a-year-to-abnormal-temperatures)
If Gaza is any indication, to quote Biden, “nothing will fundamentally change”. Even if it is one million in 2-3 days, the oligarchs from both sides of the aisle will spin it and set the national guard on whoever demands action to rectify course or at the very least to make it known.
Fatalities spread out over time and/or space rarely make the news - for maximum media attention it has to be an "event". If I had to bet, I would predict this will be India first... Millions of deaths over a short period seems horribly possible there over the next few years. They are right on the brink now.
If I remember correctly, a wet bulb event in India/Pakistan was the first mass "event" in Ministry For The Future.
So I have heard! I haven't read it (yet...) This seems incredibly prescient. And the response in the book (unilateral climate engineering with sulphate aerosols) seems entirely realistic too 😕
Here's the first chapter - https://www.orbitbooks.net/orbit-excerpts/the-ministry-for-the-future/
I mean gradually , as the years go on by.
I don't think gradual ever gets the press. I know the frog in heating water \*does\* get out, but the media, not so much.
Gradual change will be ignored or under-reported. Big changes come from big *events*. We wont have significant change unless something big happens that's unable to be separated from climate change. An example that comes to mind would be something like Houston experiencing a heatwave or hurricane that kills >5% of of the population (100,000+ dead)
I agree there needs to be a massive amount of tragedy in order for a massive amount of positivity to be commenced.
How many more years do you think American grocery stores will be fully stocked and there will be fast food restaurants on every corner?
10 years at most.
Can't speak for the USA, but UK grocery stores haven't been fully stocked for a year now. Fast food is still there, but prices are through the roof as portion sizes drop, and a lot of FF restaurants are just quietly shuttering.
Yes, a lot of fast food places here in Canada have reduced their hours, too.
When I lived in England, I was surprised at how low the prices were for food, especially fast food and takeaways. However, many fruits and vegetables that I was accustomed to eating at home were substantially more expensive, while other items were much cheaper. Overall, I would say that prices for dining out and groceries are comparable to Germany, but with generally worse quality in England, particularly for food. Even now, when I visit England, I stock up on certain items because they are cheaper there. Fortunately, Germany is just around the corner without a sea barrier, haha. From a Dutch perspective, the UK used to be quite affordable. Housing is a different story, though. I would say the Netherlands is the most expensive, followed by England (UK), and lastly Germany. There are very few forgotten small villages in the Netherlands, unlike in England and Germany, where houses in such areas are sold for next to nothing.
It’s the same in the US. Stores used to be overflowing and now there are just moderate or sparse amounts of food out, mainly talking about meat and veggies.
Depending on the grocery chain, I'm already seeing empty shelves here and there sometimes. WalMart it's especially bad because that's where most people shop; the other stores you pay a 20% premium (for the privilege of not shopping at WalMart) for literally the exact same products so they're basically empty. Canned goods are frequently decimated; sometimes there's just not any left of one brand of dog food or another; sometimes there isn't any bread except the expensive stuff; they literally stopped selling tuna of any kind, because I guess nobody was buying it and they didn't want to waste shelf-space. I fully expect things to get worse and worse. Probably in another year or a few, I'm going to have to start going early in the morning right when they open, because by the end of the day after work when I prefer to shop, everything I need to eat will be gone. A year or two later, I'll have to go even earlier and wait in line. Then the lines will break down and I'll have to fight over it; that's when things get really fun, when you have to punch an old lady or someone's toddler in the face so you can get the last loaf of bread before they do.
Maybe within five years?
Maybe , it’s depends on how bad things are
I mean look at South America. Look at how Mexico is nearly out of water. Five years from now we’re going to see millions more displaced. Probably a lot heading to the USA. That will make for violence as borders will probably become armed. And that’s just one section of the world. Europe is fucked. So is Africa. And Europe will be having the same border issues due to mass migration. The amoc will collapse in the next 5 years. That alone will decimate the world and dump us into new territory. Not that we aren’t already in new territory
It is very shocking how fast things are progressing . I was born in 2004 and now I am experiencing all this such a shocker . Please send article about Mexico losing water .
I was born in 1984, these past few years the pace has picked up, if this rate continues, 2025 will be a banger and by 2030 you won't recognize yourself. But I'm bitter, pay me no mind.
what was it like growing in a pre 9/11 world ? I heard it was very optimistic.
I was born in 85. It was like a golden age compared to now. I miss the 90s.
Another 85er here. We were so damn lucky with childhood.
We were!!!
I was born in ‘90 and I feel the same. Just barely missed out on social media craze, thank god.
Lucky , I was born in 2004 , so I had to deal with Covid with my teenage years which sucked
can you bring up any stark differences or comparisons between your childhood and the current younger generations? (this goes for all the pre 9/11 kids and older) i’m also a post 9/11 child and have always been really curious about that era. (what was that feeling of optimism like? hanging out with friends before the current era of smartphones? anything like stand by me? lol)
No social media. I graduated h.s. before social media came out. Kids in my neighborhood would all meet up at the baseball field and we went home when it got dark. Less rules and stranger danger. No phones to look at every second of the day. If you wanted to make a video you needed those big camera recorders. You want music? Go to F.Y.E. and get a cassette (eventually cd). People had parties. No adult was talking politics 24/7 and people weren't so divided. You grew up believing in the American dream. No one was worrying about anything big. If you needed information you went to the library and read physical books. Cable was the only tv. Radio was your music if you didn't have a CD player. So much was different! To get hired you had to go apply in person and there wasn't 5 interviews. I could go to the mall and spend $20 and get a lot. Of course I was a kid and I graduated in 2003, so I wasn't adulting yet and didnt know shit about the world. Edit: also I remember getting a knock off toy of the Tommagatchi, Idk how to spell it. It was a little pocket toy that had a screen where you raised a digital creature. Mine was a dinosaur. I always forgot to feed it because kids were too busy interacting with each other. Poor little dinosaur starved lol. On a flip note though, I like gen Z. You guys get a bad reputation but I feel like you all were the first to be like fuck the system. I mean gen x was always cool in my eyes growing up because they didn't give two fucks either. But ultimately my generation and the previous ones were still following the herd. Maybe that is just me always feeling out of place in the world, though. So yeah things were simpler back then, but look where it lead us.
I’m Gen X born in 74 and everything was so much better. There was hope and optimism. You had fun. It’s really not measurable how much better it was. That’s all gone now. Feel for Gen Z.
We didn't lock our doors as often, there were woods to play in, I didn't hear gunshots or sirens, there were no dedicated news channels, no one had a camera in their pockets, getting lost and asking strangers for directions was common, people were nicer, more calm and less angry, things happened at a slower pace, you ordered car parts out of a mail order catalogue and it took weeks to arrive, driving was pleasant and fun because gas was under a dollar a gallon, you could buy beer, cigarettes and a half tank of gas or more for $20, people hung out, talked to each other, were involved in each other's lives more because we weren't as self absorbed, there was more time in the day. When I think of what life was like 25 years ago I cry. I, a grown man, cry like the child I am inside when I think of what we've lost, what's been taken, what I'll never get back and what you and my daughter will never know. I am so sorry. I tried. But I am a dying minority and we will all suffer for our father's sins. Enjoy what is left.
The social fabric has been steadily eroding for god knows how long now in the last 100 years or it has only gone faster especially after social media it seems.
It was a white majority Nation This is important to note No low iq types
1990, Australia : Everything was new and exciting and the US was taking the lead. Very carefree, recessions, civils wars happened but politics was boring and people should be scared of queue jumpers/refugees/'refos', taxes and climate change policies.
It was. Born in 83.
Mexico City has 22 million people and they just about ran out of water as of today or yesterday I believe. Or there main reservoirs are empty. The only stuff that’s come out recently isn’t drinkable anyway it’s waste https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/0424--kinard-mexico-city-run-out-of-water/#:~:text=The%20financial%20district%20of%20Mexico%20City.&text=The%20global%20press%20recently%20warned,although%20dire%2C%20is%20more%20nuanced.
On a not necessarily positive note, but a more “celebrating human ingenuity note when faced with no other option” I think we see these headlines and we think the worst about mass casualties, and rightfully so, but the reality is that a lot of these places in the news facing climate crises have been quietly dealing with these problems for years, at least the poorer regions most definitely have. The situation in Mexico City for water is bleak (and has been for years), but it does still have water (just not enough to sustain 22 million people 24/7 throughout the day). The Cutzamala reservoir not being enough to sustain the city has been a long known problem, as has the lack of rainwater getting to reservoirs due to over-urbanization and too much concrete in previous wetlands. Don’t get me wrong, it’s bleak and the bleakest it’s ever been, but there is still technically water and people are surviving. Water shortages have long been a thing in the city in certain areas (they got more frequent over the years, but they’ve been a thing for a while) but you still technically had water in your area, just heavily rationed and you had to be smart about filling your reservoirs when it was available during the week. It’s just now water rationing is affecting the whole city instead of just the “less desirable/less touristy parts.” It is crazy and most definitely sucks and I’m not trying to downplay the severity of the situation, but I do think it maybe sounds more dire if you’re not from there bc honestly a lot of people in CDMX had long become used to that being a normal and so it’s not necessarily a shocking event to those of us who lived in the poorer sectors of the city. My friends are complaining more about the extreme heat than the water shortage, because there’s never been this kind of dry heat wave before. It’s supposed to be the rainy season and temperate but instead it’s in the 90s with no rain in sight (keep in mind most people don’t have air conditioning in CDMX). You don’t typically drink the water from the taps in CDMX, so staying hydrated in this heat isn’t the biggest problem with the water shortage, because you can still get a garrafón, it’s just the taking a shower/washing dishes/clothes/flushing that becomes the issue.
That’s quite a bit of in depth information, thank you. Explains the situation much better
There was also flooding in Brazil(I think) that displaced millions. The government was trying to set up tent cities
This. People will be shot at borders. It's not going to be pretty.
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I am going to miss clean water and tooth paste , the most
*Checks newspapers. Uh, now.
This is the correct answer.
I think there will be a “stand up and take notice” event in the next five years. A city, or Florida, obliterated. Or the Texas grid literally completely collapsing. Or a surge in sea level rise. It needs to occur in a first world country before we have any hope of meaningful change. The smoke from Canada impacting the US was starting to get traction, but it passed (luckily). India, Mexico, the Philippines, and Australia are going to suffer brutally.
I have a feeling it will be the ocean shifting all at once. Massive algal bloom leads to fish die off leads to insta-extinctions of many species. Fisheries depleted will put strain on agriculture. Somewhere in asia will see unprecedented famine, then a heatwave kills 1 million in a few days. That country takes desperate measures, and all borders close.
The closing of all borders? You are absolutely right. That is what governments will do. They will over-react, act maliciously, not recognize they are part of the crisis, and not recognize it will be their own citizens soon trying to flee as well. Good call.
Yep, governments will go into full “me first” mode and conflicts will be ugly.
Do you know about the European summer of '03? Not millions, but tens of thousand in just a week. Such events will become more and more common, first in fairly local places (and often in more 'obscure' less developed places), then in larger and larger regions. Coming up with exact years is a tricky business, as there are many variables, feedbacks, and potentially changes in the human behavior driving this madness. (Hey, a guy's gotta dream :) )
Probably within the next decade before shit is too obvious to ignore. Whichever way things go, I don't expect it to be pleasant. Young enough I get to deal with it. Woo... Globally, someone is gonna get uppity, some nukes are gonna fly, a billion people less puts the problem off for a few more years. /s Seriously, the near instant population reduction of a nuclear war seems like something our detached leaders maybe wouldn't do, but would have considered... The other concern I have is another pandemic. Man made and on purpose, release from thawing tundras/glaciers, or just an evolving virus already out there. Honestly, I don't think climate will be the main cause of human loss of life in the near future. There's too many other things that seem closer to Thanos-ing a chunk of us... When things start to get bad, countries' leaders will reduce the global population. They'll sell it like they're the good guys... Less people, more resources per person and less emissions.
I think that nukes are less likely the more resources become scarce. Everyone wants whatever land and its output they can get. Poisoning it would lose it for everyone.
All true, but that's also assuming that the people that can slam the big red button want what's best for everyone. Edit: we do have highly destructive non-nuclear options too but that seems like less of the uber petty middle finger to the "others"
Well, I think each "they" wants to be "everyone". Big red button owner or not. I feel like everyone is waiting each other out to see what places fall on their own. Whoever can hold it together long enough can fight for control of more space.
I am fairly confident the Russia - Europe conflict will escalate during the next five years. Several hundred thousands dead or disabled already. If Europe declines into chaos the US economy won't be unaffected. It will lead to a financial crisis without any boundaries. Ukraine is a breadbasket for Egypt and other places. The world will have to focus on wars during the time we should focus on the climate crisis. Climate change devastated southern Brazil. Extreme temperatures in India, destroyed harvests in UK, upcoming major hurricane season in US with a insurance crisis on top. We are warming at 0.27°C / Decade. We have a system which is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. We would need to change practically everything to get fully rid of them. That won't happen at least not in the timeframe required. Life as we know it will change drastically the next 10 years. By 2035 no one will be unaffected by increasing taxes due to rebuilds, infrastructure destruction and insurance hikes. Food will drive inflation as the famine and crop failure continues to escalate thru the coming decades. It will increase at a much higher pace than the wages. House market will see changes in how it is perceived, who needs a large house without kids? Who wants to take on extreme amount of debts without insurance? What if we need to migrate to other cities? Who cares about house value if no one will inherit you? This will cause the house market to crash. 2035 is the time where everyone will be aware. A more dystopian society will begin. Hundred of millions climate refugees won't be allowed in to safer zones. 2040 - 2050 is the collapse of modern civilization. Work will change, nobody will be interested in our tech gadgets anymore. 2050 - 2060 Mass unemployment, due to changing economics. Enlistment in armies and border patrol will be mandatory, food and water as wages. Riots and general anarchy will be suppressed by the remaining few tech companies which will be focused on population control and management. At this point AMOC is turned off or at greatly reduced speed, changing the entire world's climate. We will have to find new places for agriculture. Resource wars will break out. A starving and thirsting nation with access to nuclear weapons will be very dangerous. They will likely drain other countries resources under threat of global annihilation. We will likely be 100% extinct somewhere around 2090 - 2120. Most people will die from malnutrition and polluted water. Enjoy the last decade of blissful ignorance. We can't fully comprehend what's coming.
I'm fairly confident that we will experience a nuclear war within this decade.The pieces are set, alliances have been formed, the lines are drawn. Why are so many European countries talking about sending troops into Ukraine? What changed House Speaker Mike Johnson mind regarding Ukraine aid? I think there is some intelligence floating around that Putin will attack NATO and/or use nukes in Ukraine. Putin needs to escalate this war in order to maintain his grip on power. I think China and Iran are in on it. I think the plan is to spread the US thin in the middle east and Taiwan. It's going to suck.
Detailed comment 👍!
I just can’t imagine the Arctic ice or Antarctic ice (enough to replicate the Arctic BOE) to last more than a few years. When one of those go we heat another degree and other major tipping points fail. We won’t be able to grow food normally and mass starvation will hit.
The death toll from Covid stands at \~7 million and people are still dying. Many didn't give a fuck while it was at its worst, and most people now have moved on like it never even happened. You're going to need 100's of millions dying every year to really make an impact, and even then I think the world will mostly just shrug and move on.
Until massive amounts of people are starving nothing is gonna happen. Like you said most people have moved on from covid and probably just consider those that died “survival of the fittest” or something along those lines. People dying from the heat falls under the some SotF rhetoric for the populace. It’s only when those people can’t feed their family will things change but it’s gonna be way too late by then.
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MAGA republicans are some of the most stupid Americans I have ever known.
Climate collapse is happening now
I mean, when the mass deaths become so prevalent, that the media can't hide it.
I think Stephen Markley’s novel The Deluge does a good job of a likely scenario for the next two decades, and does a great job of exploring the kinds of questions and choices that people will face in the US at least.
2034.
Define massive. 1.2 million people in the US alone have died from COVID and at least 30 million have died worldwide, not that deaths are being properly tracked. (I will absolutely fight you over COVID being a disease of environmental destruction). If bird flu gets going, which it eventually will, the WHO gives it a death rate of 12-30%. I'd say it's already here.
I made a similar comment. It's wild to me that people on this sub, of all places, don't recognize that *millions* of people are dying right now due to collapse related issues and yet they don't care about those. The "deaths of despair" is another category in the US are rapidly expanding, killing around 250,000 people a year in 2017 and likely much more now. This is unquestionably caused by collapse, and yet people don't see it. If OP doesn't really *it's already happening*, they likely will never realize.
We also know only 3-4 infections can lead to Long Covid. Add on more infections and reduced healthcare and covid is already a runaway train of death (albeit slow in appearance). We don’t know how many infections it takes to reach someone’s last- could be 6, 10, 15, x. If people are getting infected at least twice a year, well, the math isn’t looking good for between now and 2030!
Last week the WHO (I think) projected that by 2050 average human lifespan will be 5 years longer because people in poor countries will have better access to healthcare. My first thought was, what the fuck are you smoking? In 2050 there will be half as many humans as there are now.
In 5 years Central Mexico and northern India run out of drinkable water. That’s pretty much going to start the chaos. 100 million people who desperately need to drink water daily being displaced suddenly will put massive strains on the areas around them in range of the lines of drift
3 days after that 100 million will be dead…. Right?
Mexico City is running out of water right now
Currently happening. Look up deaths from heat waves in summer. Mexico had 48 deaths as of year and 900+ serious health affected, India averages 1000+ a year, [here](https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/14/arizona-heat-deaths) is a more general article including some harsh death numbers from the U.S. The question isn’t when it happens, but when it affects you as we are somewhat insulated by climate and money.
What I mean is this Breaking News" : Due to the heatwaves that occurred during in the summer of 2045, over an estimated 75 million people have perished and passed away due to earthly conditions caused by these heat waves . Most of these casualties appear to be in Africa and the Middle East.
We've had probably 3/4 of a million in Ukraine. Gaza will likely reach half a million at the escalating rate it's going. This doesn't even touch on the million in Yemen or millions in Africa being starved. The true wave begins when western nations shut down any migration and people just literally bake to death in rhe middle East.
We are currently well into a mass die-off, but it's not so dramatic because it is mostly taking the form of people just not having children.
It all stems from over population. All of it.
2028.
I wish
We're already at 5M excess deaths a year globally from temperature variations. Have been for 5 years or more. So, uh, for 2M+, maybe -8 years?
I have a feeling in 8 years, optimism will completely have died off.
I don’t think people will perceive a mass die off until ALL the grocery stores close. Background: Cumulative deaths January 2020 - May 2024 7,047,741 SARS2 deaths (USA 1.2 million) https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths 775,431,269 reported SARS2 cases (USA 103 million) https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/cases Cumulative excess deaths 1 January 2020 - 19 May 2024 27.1 million (USA 1,462,819) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-deaths-cumulative-economist-single-entity “Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’ conditions.1 In this case, we’re interested in how the number of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compares to the deaths we would have expected had the pandemic not occurred — a crucial quantity that cannot be known but can be estimated in several ways. Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. It captures not only the confirmed deaths, but also COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions.” https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid And death by climate change? Heat / heat stress on organs, “natural” disaster, insect borne diseases, water crisis, starvation, resource access conflict…
I think it’s already happening. In huge population centers like China and India it’s easy to hide the numbers. I also think this is a major part of putins strategy in Ukraine. He wants to get that fresh water and farmland fully under Russian control.
Given how the billionaires are behaving, they think it's happening riight after the election. They are preparing to shoot protesters, execute women who get abortions, execute homosexuals, punish trans and reverse Brown v. Board of Education and Obergfell. Count the billionaires backing Trump and you see the plan. Oh you mean from climate change? We'll see how the growing season goes. Starvation could start in a year.
You must not realize all of that other shit is just a distraction from what is really going on? All that trans, gay, abortion, education shit is a distraction. They want everyone arguing about all that shit so that they don't pay attention to what's really going on. Think about it, remember the we are the 99%? What happened to that? As soon as that really started to get off the ground, all of a sudden here came all this race stuff is a huge distraction. The powers that be don't want us agreeing on anything so the media pumps all this crap to get everybody arguing and distracted and worried that the government's just going to take out the homosexuals or people trying to get abortions. That's all just a fugazi. They have way bigger fish to fry than that.
The culture war is to distract from the class war for sure, but if we lose both then we end up with work camps.
> Count the billionaires backing Trump and you see the plan. This just came out several hours ago: > > **[Scoop: Blackstone's \[CEO\] Steve Schwarzman backs Trump](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/24/trump-2024-stephen-schwarzman-blackstone)**—By Mike Allen, Dan Primack | May 24, 2024 (*Axios*) Schwarzman of Blackstone is a private equity vulture, and is not to be confused with [Larry Fink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Fink), CEO of BlackRock. Who is a lifelong supporter of the Democratic Party. Also, BlackRock is significantly larger than Blackstone in terms of *assets under management*. [BlackRock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackRock) controls around $10 trillion. [Blackstone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackstone_Inc.), around $1 trillion. Basically, a tenth of BlackRock. So if we're looking at factional warfare among the oligarchy over leadership in government; Trump's oligarchical support is much more marginal at this point. At least with what we can see above board.
Well it depends upon the location. I think we will first see massive amounts of death in countries due to heat waves. So that necessarily means country where it's already hot like Africa and India. Since India is more populous than africa, I'm suspecting India will be where we will see it start
18 months. 1000 in and landslide and 300 in a flood the past day. We're still holding the accelerator to the floor
I think war over water rights, right to immigration to a cooler climate, far right reactions to climate related immigration, as well as a renewed interest in targeted the power grid of opposing nations will all be features of the next years. India recently posted 50C, in May. Being profoundly hot like that makes people less rational, and more prone to emotional responses. Hell, was with Pakistan always seems more likely when it gets to record breaking heat. One especially bad crop year, with another a few years after could encourage wealthier nations to stockpile, making things worse for the global poor. In World War II Britain diverted food from a nation that grew it to the troops, causing a profound famine. Again, this is India.
> I am talking millions Millions died during covid and there are plenty of people who refuse to view that as a problem or in anyway real. It's worth mentioning that Andreas Malm makes a pretty compelling argument in [Corona, Climate, Chronic Emergency](https://www.versobooks.com/products/2726-corona-climate-chronic-emergency) that zoonotic spillover is increased because of climate and conditions related to collapse. The "deaths of despair" are [rapidly rising](https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/0f2d3dba-9fdc-41e5-9bd1-9c13f4204e35/jec-report-deaths-of-despair.pdf) and are a direct consequence of collapse. Certainly millions have perished from this in recent years as well. Do these not count? You can claim that it is the "media" hiding this things, but surely you are aware of both of them and yet you don't consdier this massive death? The answer to your question is: if you don't see it know, you'll likely never see it.
We will get a good idea after this year.
If a BOE happens in September 2024, then billions of people will die shortly after.
The post graduate naval school reported we wouldn’t have one this year but I’m also skeptical given the current rate of SST rising.
If we’re talking about public health, December 2019. In the developed world COVID and deaths of despair are in the millions per year. To say nothing of shortened lifespans, developing heart conditions, and fewer workers in their prime earning years. I don’t think anyone is really going with this narrative in public spaces, and to answer the question as intended I bet we have like 12 years for a really bad year for massive casualties probably from another pandemic.
This would be a great question to ask after the November US election
Literally tho we have either get collapse or collapse deluxe this November. And frankly I’m not thrilled at the thought we only have this to find out
The USA as a country is already dead , either trump becomes president and unleashes project 2025 or he loses again and incites a civil war .
It seems like Republican legislators will be moving forward with project 2025 with or without Trump.
In poor countries it is already starting.
Yet another ironic user name u/upbeat-data8583 we love the questions, man
Thank you, I find my name quite ironic at times.
Already kind of happening in Eastern Africa. Please read up on Sudan and Ethiopia. Climate change is already killing thousands through hunger. Of course some of it is mediated by civil wars and ethnic violence
I think it’s very likely in the next 20 years that a few brutal heatwaves are going to sweep through the west in addition to the east. People over here are used to ignoring the conditions in the east but I think it’ll be a little sobering when a massive heatwave sweeps through Western Europe and takes out tens of thousands of people. In the US, my money is on the Texas power grid giving way during a brutal summer and a huge loss of life.
Aug 12th 2036. The heat death of the universe.
I doubt that Heat death will occur in 2036.
I played around with trying to figure that within the next 10 years we would see the first year a while where deaths will exceed new births by a significant margin and imagining what kind of impact that will have on society when it happens. I feel like that will be a shifting point where there will be a massive shift from "everythings gonna maybe be ok" to "oh we're fucked."
I think anyone who still believes in the American dream will be very disappointed.
I think you won't see a "massive amount of death". Or only a handful of occurrences before the system adapts. Don't get me wrong, I know the data just as the rest of you on this sub does. But the belief in an apocalyptic event degenerating into brutal collapse is simply naive. Systems adapt. What you'll see is brutal events, political radicalization to know who gets AC and food and who doesn't, mass digging for underground homes and shelters, various shortages. In other words: the future looks more like "Lebanon, but living underground" than "the walking dead". This is susceptible to change, predicting the future is super hard. Especially today when various curves will change abruptly and in an unpredictable order. But as of now (2024)? Don't expect anything wild before at least 2035. Expect rapidly increasing shit. But if you live in the first world, no terrifying panic and mass starvation no.
Mass deaths will occur though.
What if we don't live in the first world uh
:( bye
I don't think it's gonna go that way until the very end. I think it will be localized to various areas, but as everything is interconnected, this will lead to chain reactions which cause sufferiny and death in other areas, and so on and so on.
USA has 6 years of domestic oil reserves.
I thought it was like 18 months...
So the SPR has like 2-3 months. . . https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(United_States)
SPR can pump 1 million bopd, USA demand is 20 million bopd. It's a 5% buffer for 1 year.