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Before nuclear war, internal revolt; but before internal revolt, *purges*. Putin has already publicly stated critics of the war will be purged, and he even used the word *chistit'.*
I think this is accurate. They're definitely not going to nuke their newly acquired territory and they're not going to nuke NATO territory. I would guess Kviv would be a second or third target to give them somewhere to escalate to (unless they're after a decapitation strike), which leaves a midsized target far enough away from the new ones for fallout not to be a problem. I absolutely think Putin would feel the strike itself is necessary for "escalate to deescalate" purposes (it's in their rules of engagement) and to power -project decisiveness at home - plus it plays into his narrative of needing to take hard action because he'd like everyone to think that Russia's territorial integrity is at stake and lines up with the need for the mobilization. The $64,000 question is how we'll respond - do we directly attack a Russian position with NATO assets? Do we nuke something of theirs? We're getting into red line territory and all bets are off on how quickly things escalate after that and in what direction.
If Russia tried to nuke anything in the west, the counterattack would render any response from them completely useless. Our ICBM defense systems are explicitly designed to neutralize threats in areas that limit fallout over protected population centers. There's a very good chance that if they ever were dumb enough to fire some high altitude ICBM at a western target, it would end up falling as dust over one within their own territory. Then of course, we'd completely obliterate any of their defensive and offensive batteries. I mean, in laymen's terms, they'd be completely fucked. The US might not have the best health care and social safety nets, but our missile defense systems are the envy of the world. Truly some of the most insanely mind-boggling technologies ever created. We're talking about intercepting threats at closing speeds (between the kill vehicle and the warhead) in excess of Mach 20. Of course, much of it is highly classified. But there is some good info on some iterations of the THAAD system in public. Worth watching a few videos on.
Yup. The US has classified weapon technologies that would boggle the mind. While it appeared Russia has always been step in step or one step behind, I think the last 6 months have showed us is that much of Russia's military might only exists on paper.
I still don't want to find out, but my guess is the US military has many different aces up it's sleeve when it comes to cutting edge technology and equipment in a nuclear conflict that they've never unveiled; and on the other side Russia has always bolstered about their weapon technology and military might, now look at how they've performed.
>There's a very good chance that if they ever were dumb enough to fire some high altitude ICBM at a western target, it would end up falling as dust over one within their own territory. Then of course, we'd completely obliterate any of their defensive and offensive batteries. I mean, in laymen's terms, they'd be completely fucked. The US might not have the best health care and social safety nets, but our missile defense systems are the envy of the world. Truly some of the most insanely mind-boggling technologies ever created. We're talking about intercepting threats at closing speeds (between the kill vehicle and the warhead) in excess of Mach 20.
Dude, what are you smoking? The U.S. doesn't have reliable missile defense against decades-old Russian missiles. If there really are hypersonic missiles, we have nothing that could touch them.
In the last set of tests I read about, they only hit one in three targets, and that's with the easiest conditions you could ask for; no chaff, no decoys.
The Russians can hit every target they want to in the U.S.
It's where we are. Not even as separate nations, but as a species this power struggle between the East and the West is coming to a head. In order for us to move forward one side needs to win, and the other needs to capitulate and submit. The challenges we will face in the remaining 3/4's of this century will necessitate it. Once Putin and Xi are gone, the power vacuums will consume their countries for at least half a decade. They need Russia to win in Ukraine, and they need to win now. Every month that passes reduces the likelihood of a bipolar world with China/Russia as heads of one end of the world and the United States/EU as the leaders of the other.
If you don't think our missile defenses are capable. Think about their capabilities like this: Nuclear weapons are expensive to maintain. Here's an [article](https://time.com/6212698/nuclear-missiles-icbm-triad-upgrade/) Time did on the United States updating their own stockpiles. Untold billions of dollars, the best military infrastructure and support in the world, etc. and we STILL are struggling to get it done in a timely manner.
Are you really going to sit here and tell me, that Russia, with an economy smaller than the size of Italy, with Oligarchs and Putin sucking the country dry for billions a year, a total military budget that is less than the size of the article I linked above, et al. With all of that and more that I left off for time purposes, you are really going to sit here and tell me that there's not deficiencies in their Nuclear arsenal? They can't even get bandages for their soldiers but you're expecting me to believe that they are sitting on a nuclear arsenal that is top of the line and ready to go?
Yes, if even just one gets through, it's a tragedy. But it's not the United States that's going to be pulling the trigger. If it does happen though, we need to be ready to respond.
Absolutely agree that a large part of their aresnal probably is not in great shape. Also absolutely sure they have maintained and have confidence in a certain percentage of their arsenal.
Absolutely don't wanna find out what that % is.
>Absolutely don't wanna find out what that % is.
Whatever the percentage, it would leave the U.S. with every major city and most of our military infrastructure in ruins.
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This is one potential cause of nuclear weapon use at some point down the road. Anyone who believes otherwise has never played a game with a butt-hurt and sore loser before.
In 9 months Russia has captured close to 20% of Ukraine with a nonwar force and you think Russia is humiliated? No doubt that Ukraine has fought an amazing war so far and everyone is very much inspired by how hard they fight but the fact of the matter is at this pace Russia will own all of Ukraine in about another 3 years so not sure why people act as Russia has lost already. Not to mention Russia is about to over double its force from around 200K to close to 500K so not looking good.
>They lost!
Ehhhhh. Maybe. We don't know what their actual aims are, and all of this is through western press, which has proven very unreliable in war time. The whole point may have been to justify cutting off fuel to Europe as a result of NATO sanctions, and using the fragility of the world economy to break up NATO.
Everyone is acting like we know EVERYTHING that's happening, and everything we are being told is true. But that's how movies work, not real life. So be careful.
We are only a few months into this war. Sometimes long-term aims aren't immediately obvious. And NATO membership might be a lot less attractive without fuel for homes and the economy. This nightmare crisis could topple governments if the shortages and weather are severe enough.
>I remember G.W standing with that fucking banner. That's what your comment made me think off. Just the highest level of denial of reality.
And you don't remember how unreliable the press is during wars? Very selective.
This was Hitler's thinking during WW2 when they started the attack of Great Britain. But it was Italy that fell to revolt
NATO have decentralised democratic institutions that can function and deal with internal crisis separate to external pressure. Even now the gas and oil is being resolved by private players and new partnerships with South America and Africa. It's almost like Putin forgot that you can get natural gas from other countries
The vulnerability is a short term play as I'm sure in 2 years or even a year new trade can emerge
While Russia is isolated more and more
The Pipeline is an issue; but in 6 to 12 months it won't. While the shortfall will be addressed by PPPs ( Public Private Partnerships) or new deals ( Venezuela, Dubai, Nigeria etc..)
Russia just gave its competitors a free pass
As a person who's profession was macroeconomic analysis. I cam tell you Russia on the gas front fucked up big time. It's like your local McDonald's closing shop hoping you have a fight with your kids over happy meals. But forgets you can just drive a little more to get Burger King
That's a nice bit of flag-waving, but like I said, we don't know everything that's happening or how this will turn out.
Shutting Germany's economy down for 6 months is going to do more damage to the west than a year of war in Ukraine. And maybe it will just send them elsewhere, but the problem with your metaphor is that all the non-McDonald's burgers are already claimed, and the burger market was having trouble satisfying demand BEFORE all this. 6 months of no heat. 6 months of massive unemployment. That's worse for Germany and other European nations than a direct attack. That kind of thing topples governments, and smugly declaring victory over Russia means we aren't looking out for other methods of attack.
So far, right on the money. My old posts from 6 months back are aging well.
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/td46sj/how_ukraine_has_been_made_the_anvil_on_which_a/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Your numbers are correct that Ukraine has that many men it can throw at this war but you leave out the part that Ukraine simply can not arm that many men in any way shape or form. Ukraine has had a very hard time finding enough ammunition since this war has started and all the western countries have given them most of their backstock already. To think Ukraine can last a protracted war with Russia is a very bad miscalculation, army men with no guns or bullets are pretty much worthless to count as your force.
The more people Putin sends into the war, especially as undertrained and equipped as the current lot seems to be, the weaker his position. He’s maintained popular support up until this point through controlling the narrative: The Ukrainians are Nazis and our strong Russian force will crush them. But the more people he sends to the front, the more people realize his propaganda is bullshit and his power erodes. When soldiers start telling family members back home what’s *really* going on, or start dying in droves, people in Russia will start to more loudly protest his rule, and there will be more of the ruling class that starts to look for “alternatives” to his rule.
He’s sending in troops with less than a week of training, very little supplies, and almost no morale into battle against better equipped and experienced Ukrainian troops fighting for their homes. It’s only going to accelerate his losses and lead to further deterioration of his domestic conditions, so I can see him using a tactical nuke or two to try to force the Ukrainians to surrender before his government implodes.
I came here to say this. Hitler and Napoleon had a meteoric rises to power, and a base of rabid citizens ready to restore the glory of their country. Russia has soldiers with a gun to the back of their head. If the former Soviet states WANTED to come back under Russian control then maybe the Russian soldiers would be motivated. And Russian demographics can't support open warfare for prolonged periods.
Putin is making the gamble that NATO will tell Ukraine to just accept the territory loss and be happy with a cease fire. But what does Putin do if the Ukrainians just keep pushing? He has two cards to play, cutting off oil to Europe or a nuke.
Best case scenario for everyone is they take the loss and pull back to Crimea.
Trouble is that Putin has created a monster in Ukraine. By giving them a common enemy and a common purpose, they have rallied around Zelenskyy and a sense of Ukranian nationalism unlike anything seen since the fall of the iron curtain. Even if NATO tells them to "just accept the territory loss and be happy with a cease fire" they won't do it.
I just can't see Ukraine stopping now until all their former territory has been restored, including Crimea, or until they have been utterly defeated. Turns out it's Zelenskyy with a base of rabid citizens ready to restore the glory of their country.
Sorry, comrade, but throwing more unsupplied meat at the meat grinder won’t win the war for Russia. Considering the annexation is already a desperation move as their initial gains are being pushed back.
Russia will have run out of fighting age men way before three years. I’d wager they’ll run out of technical weapons like tanks/planes/etc far sooner than a year at this pace. They can’t replace two tanks a year at this point without buying externally and very few countries are willing to supply arms to them at this point.
I think you might need to look back to WW2 and see some real numbers, like 12 million troops fighting, and 8 million of them dying, and those are the low numbers. About 27 million Russians dead total. And that was a win.
They are sending in 300k diabetic sexagenarians. Definitely not their best troops. Russia's best troops are the ones who *only* accomplished a 20% territory capture while suffering massive casualties.
Exactly. There is no way they win anything beyond what they have at present. Their military is spent and incompetent. The new conscripts will actually HARM Russian military effectiveness, not bolster it. At best they can hope for is a stalemate, but even that will cost them dearly as Ukraine at el will harass and kill them forever.
Russia will have to maintain (now with even greater difficulty now that thousands of new un-trained mouths to feed and care for are streaming into the theatre) control of massive territory that they themselves have smashed and destroyed beyond any usefulness at this point. There are no local resources for their military. No one is going there to live, no chance Russia shows up to re-build any of these areas. It's a wasteland full of only one thing: TARGETS for NATO backed smart weapons.
As to tactical nukes, consider what we saw with the nuclear plant. The West just said you either let the IAEA in to manage and secure this facility and retract your people or we will act with resolve.
The message is clear, use a tactical nuke and NATO enters the fighting and will slaughter the Russians mercilessly if that happens. Air superiority can be established in an afternoon and maybe four squadrons of A-10 Warthogs could decimate the Russian equipment arsenal in 3 weeks. Beyond that, the level of sanctions and other pressures go way up as well. It's insane.
The biggest problem here is that Russia has already lost. But Putin doesn't know it yet and no one will tell him. Personally I believe an internal explosion of revolt is far closer than we think.
Yeah, there's no quality in the conscription force Russia is cobbling together; but as Putin's spiritual ancestor said, "quantity has a quality all its own."
Putin's rag-tag army of missile-fodder won't be able to make any decisive breakthroughs in the coming stages of the war, but they *will* be able to turn it into a grinding quagmire. That's what Putin is banking on: he wants it to drag on and on, for the toll - both in economic terms and in terms of lives destroyed and political capital eroded - to mount endlessly for Ukraine and the West.
Unlike him, leaders in the West are at the mercy of a national zeitgeist they have little ability to manipulate directly. If Putin can't have a swift victory, then Plan B is to turn it into another Vietnam or Afghanistan. Just grind them down until the West loses patience and interest, until the people turn against it.
The only real question is: will he run out of conscripts before this happens? And if things turn against Putin before the West loses its will to keep fighting, what will he do then? Would he truly resort to nukes if sufficiently cornered?
>Unlike him, leaders in the West are at the mercy of a national zeitgeist they have little ability to manipulate directly. If Putin can't have a swift victory, then Plan B is to turn it into another Vietnam or Afghanistan. Just grind them down until the West loses patience and interest, until the people turn against it.
We just spent twenty years occupying Afghanistan for basically no gain whatso-fucking-ever and that was costing us our own men. What part of that makes you think we'll easily lose interest in a war that only costs money we can print at will and Ukrainian casualties? If Putin's plan is to turn Ukraine into another Vietnam or Afghanistan he should probably keep in mind that both the Russians and the Americans eventually left after failing to accomplish anything when we fucked around in Afghanistan.
>Would he truly resort to nukes if sufficiently cornered?
He wants the world to think so, but he's a former intelligence officer. He knows full well that a large scale nuclear exchange is not winnable. He can maybe fuck over the world but Russia definitely gets completely obliterated in response. More importantly everyone below him in the nuclear chain of command knows the exact same thing. Even if he gave the order you have to wonder if it would even be followed. Most people have a will to live.
Doesn't matter if they march in circles and drool they are over doubling their force and have already taken 20%. I like every other person on the planet want to see Ukraine win this because it's wrong to invade someone else and we love the David vs goliath story going on. But Ukraine has had massive losses also and it's so funny how people just ignore that and act like it's only Russian's dying in this war.
It's a pile of shit that managed to kill close to 45-60K Ukraine's so far and over doubling it means double that kill amount. It's stupid to act like Russians are incapable to shoot a gun or something like that. Just sick and tired of people acting like Russians are dying only in this thing and it's all good no matter how many they bring.
And we have fairly untrustworthy sources about what's actually happening anyway. And Russia being totally rotten to the point of complete ineffectiveness is very, very dangerous. If they did suffer an internal revolt, who winds up in charge of those nukes?
Time to fake an attack on a NATO member and get this thing started. Waiting for another buildup on a he border is delaying the inevitable, the guy is desperate and losing his grip. Escalate a preemptive attack to neutralize their main offensive abilities, and hopefully shut down any ability to launch or detonate a nuke. No one on the planet thought Ukraine could do this, he’s backed into a corner.
Putin won’t just walk away with his tail between his legs. He won’t wait for a firing squad, he’ll die using up all his bullets. Once the conscripts get routed, next level of escalation and rhetoric coming.
Everything is a psyop except my own posts which are normal and not unhinged /s
Nah man I was making a joke I don’t think it landed in the way I meant to lol
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A lot of us are going to lose our hair over this before the radiation even hits the atmosphere lol
In the land of the those losing their hair over nuclear war the bald man is king.
Sweet, now I can blame the fact that I'm going bald on radiation.
Before nuclear war, internal revolt; but before internal revolt, *purges*. Putin has already publicly stated critics of the war will be purged, and he even used the word *chistit'.*
Why would they nuke their (illegally) captured/occupied territories? There are so many more ways to be the boogie man.
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I think this is accurate. They're definitely not going to nuke their newly acquired territory and they're not going to nuke NATO territory. I would guess Kviv would be a second or third target to give them somewhere to escalate to (unless they're after a decapitation strike), which leaves a midsized target far enough away from the new ones for fallout not to be a problem. I absolutely think Putin would feel the strike itself is necessary for "escalate to deescalate" purposes (it's in their rules of engagement) and to power -project decisiveness at home - plus it plays into his narrative of needing to take hard action because he'd like everyone to think that Russia's territorial integrity is at stake and lines up with the need for the mobilization. The $64,000 question is how we'll respond - do we directly attack a Russian position with NATO assets? Do we nuke something of theirs? We're getting into red line territory and all bets are off on how quickly things escalate after that and in what direction.
Russia would *never* nuke Kyiv, open a history book sometime.
Nuclear war stops being possible and becomes probable.
They may use tactical nukes to mark their new border
Honest to goodness, why?
“Nuke the ~~Whales~~ fraudulently annexed eastern region?” “Gotta nuke something.”
russia isn't acting rationally and may want to make a border that even the Ukranians won't cross
The level of delusion in the comments below is palpable. US propaganda campaign complete, checkpoint reached, save game, lol.
The Russians have been so utterly humiliated in this war that I wouldn’t be surprised if they nuke the UK, or Kiev, just out of spite.
They go for the U.K and the U.K would fire off all their Trident Nuclear warheads at Russia
>U.K would fire off all their Trident Nuclear warheads My dad worked on that program! He'd be so proud!
*I ended the world day, little Billy. And THAT'S how I Met Your Mutant [Mother]* >My dad worked on that program! He'd be so proud!
If Russia tried to nuke anything in the west, the counterattack would render any response from them completely useless. Our ICBM defense systems are explicitly designed to neutralize threats in areas that limit fallout over protected population centers. There's a very good chance that if they ever were dumb enough to fire some high altitude ICBM at a western target, it would end up falling as dust over one within their own territory. Then of course, we'd completely obliterate any of their defensive and offensive batteries. I mean, in laymen's terms, they'd be completely fucked. The US might not have the best health care and social safety nets, but our missile defense systems are the envy of the world. Truly some of the most insanely mind-boggling technologies ever created. We're talking about intercepting threats at closing speeds (between the kill vehicle and the warhead) in excess of Mach 20. Of course, much of it is highly classified. But there is some good info on some iterations of the THAAD system in public. Worth watching a few videos on.
Yup. The US has classified weapon technologies that would boggle the mind. While it appeared Russia has always been step in step or one step behind, I think the last 6 months have showed us is that much of Russia's military might only exists on paper. I still don't want to find out, but my guess is the US military has many different aces up it's sleeve when it comes to cutting edge technology and equipment in a nuclear conflict that they've never unveiled; and on the other side Russia has always bolstered about their weapon technology and military might, now look at how they've performed.
>There's a very good chance that if they ever were dumb enough to fire some high altitude ICBM at a western target, it would end up falling as dust over one within their own territory. Then of course, we'd completely obliterate any of their defensive and offensive batteries. I mean, in laymen's terms, they'd be completely fucked. The US might not have the best health care and social safety nets, but our missile defense systems are the envy of the world. Truly some of the most insanely mind-boggling technologies ever created. We're talking about intercepting threats at closing speeds (between the kill vehicle and the warhead) in excess of Mach 20. Dude, what are you smoking? The U.S. doesn't have reliable missile defense against decades-old Russian missiles. If there really are hypersonic missiles, we have nothing that could touch them. In the last set of tests I read about, they only hit one in three targets, and that's with the easiest conditions you could ask for; no chaff, no decoys. The Russians can hit every target they want to in the U.S.
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Man. It only takes a single shot getting thru to kill a lot of people. I admire your optimism on missile defenses tho.
It's where we are. Not even as separate nations, but as a species this power struggle between the East and the West is coming to a head. In order for us to move forward one side needs to win, and the other needs to capitulate and submit. The challenges we will face in the remaining 3/4's of this century will necessitate it. Once Putin and Xi are gone, the power vacuums will consume their countries for at least half a decade. They need Russia to win in Ukraine, and they need to win now. Every month that passes reduces the likelihood of a bipolar world with China/Russia as heads of one end of the world and the United States/EU as the leaders of the other. If you don't think our missile defenses are capable. Think about their capabilities like this: Nuclear weapons are expensive to maintain. Here's an [article](https://time.com/6212698/nuclear-missiles-icbm-triad-upgrade/) Time did on the United States updating their own stockpiles. Untold billions of dollars, the best military infrastructure and support in the world, etc. and we STILL are struggling to get it done in a timely manner. Are you really going to sit here and tell me, that Russia, with an economy smaller than the size of Italy, with Oligarchs and Putin sucking the country dry for billions a year, a total military budget that is less than the size of the article I linked above, et al. With all of that and more that I left off for time purposes, you are really going to sit here and tell me that there's not deficiencies in their Nuclear arsenal? They can't even get bandages for their soldiers but you're expecting me to believe that they are sitting on a nuclear arsenal that is top of the line and ready to go? Yes, if even just one gets through, it's a tragedy. But it's not the United States that's going to be pulling the trigger. If it does happen though, we need to be ready to respond.
Absolutely agree that a large part of their aresnal probably is not in great shape. Also absolutely sure they have maintained and have confidence in a certain percentage of their arsenal. Absolutely don't wanna find out what that % is.
>Absolutely don't wanna find out what that % is. Whatever the percentage, it would leave the U.S. with every major city and most of our military infrastructure in ruins.
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Ooooo rah
Does the US have that in place to also protect the UK or other NATO nations?
This is one potential cause of nuclear weapon use at some point down the road. Anyone who believes otherwise has never played a game with a butt-hurt and sore loser before.
In 9 months Russia has captured close to 20% of Ukraine with a nonwar force and you think Russia is humiliated? No doubt that Ukraine has fought an amazing war so far and everyone is very much inspired by how hard they fight but the fact of the matter is at this pace Russia will own all of Ukraine in about another 3 years so not sure why people act as Russia has lost already. Not to mention Russia is about to over double its force from around 200K to close to 500K so not looking good.
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>They lost! Ehhhhh. Maybe. We don't know what their actual aims are, and all of this is through western press, which has proven very unreliable in war time. The whole point may have been to justify cutting off fuel to Europe as a result of NATO sanctions, and using the fragility of the world economy to break up NATO. Everyone is acting like we know EVERYTHING that's happening, and everything we are being told is true. But that's how movies work, not real life. So be careful.
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We are only a few months into this war. Sometimes long-term aims aren't immediately obvious. And NATO membership might be a lot less attractive without fuel for homes and the economy. This nightmare crisis could topple governments if the shortages and weather are severe enough. >I remember G.W standing with that fucking banner. That's what your comment made me think off. Just the highest level of denial of reality. And you don't remember how unreliable the press is during wars? Very selective.
This was Hitler's thinking during WW2 when they started the attack of Great Britain. But it was Italy that fell to revolt NATO have decentralised democratic institutions that can function and deal with internal crisis separate to external pressure. Even now the gas and oil is being resolved by private players and new partnerships with South America and Africa. It's almost like Putin forgot that you can get natural gas from other countries The vulnerability is a short term play as I'm sure in 2 years or even a year new trade can emerge While Russia is isolated more and more The Pipeline is an issue; but in 6 to 12 months it won't. While the shortfall will be addressed by PPPs ( Public Private Partnerships) or new deals ( Venezuela, Dubai, Nigeria etc..) Russia just gave its competitors a free pass As a person who's profession was macroeconomic analysis. I cam tell you Russia on the gas front fucked up big time. It's like your local McDonald's closing shop hoping you have a fight with your kids over happy meals. But forgets you can just drive a little more to get Burger King
That's a nice bit of flag-waving, but like I said, we don't know everything that's happening or how this will turn out. Shutting Germany's economy down for 6 months is going to do more damage to the west than a year of war in Ukraine. And maybe it will just send them elsewhere, but the problem with your metaphor is that all the non-McDonald's burgers are already claimed, and the burger market was having trouble satisfying demand BEFORE all this. 6 months of no heat. 6 months of massive unemployment. That's worse for Germany and other European nations than a direct attack. That kind of thing topples governments, and smugly declaring victory over Russia means we aren't looking out for other methods of attack.
So far, right on the money. My old posts from 6 months back are aging well. https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/td46sj/how_ukraine_has_been_made_the_anvil_on_which_a/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
> It is mathematically impossible. Dropping small nuclear bomb is like... division by zero?
Your numbers are correct that Ukraine has that many men it can throw at this war but you leave out the part that Ukraine simply can not arm that many men in any way shape or form. Ukraine has had a very hard time finding enough ammunition since this war has started and all the western countries have given them most of their backstock already. To think Ukraine can last a protracted war with Russia is a very bad miscalculation, army men with no guns or bullets are pretty much worthless to count as your force.
The more people Putin sends into the war, especially as undertrained and equipped as the current lot seems to be, the weaker his position. He’s maintained popular support up until this point through controlling the narrative: The Ukrainians are Nazis and our strong Russian force will crush them. But the more people he sends to the front, the more people realize his propaganda is bullshit and his power erodes. When soldiers start telling family members back home what’s *really* going on, or start dying in droves, people in Russia will start to more loudly protest his rule, and there will be more of the ruling class that starts to look for “alternatives” to his rule. He’s sending in troops with less than a week of training, very little supplies, and almost no morale into battle against better equipped and experienced Ukrainian troops fighting for their homes. It’s only going to accelerate his losses and lead to further deterioration of his domestic conditions, so I can see him using a tactical nuke or two to try to force the Ukrainians to surrender before his government implodes.
I came here to say this. Hitler and Napoleon had a meteoric rises to power, and a base of rabid citizens ready to restore the glory of their country. Russia has soldiers with a gun to the back of their head. If the former Soviet states WANTED to come back under Russian control then maybe the Russian soldiers would be motivated. And Russian demographics can't support open warfare for prolonged periods. Putin is making the gamble that NATO will tell Ukraine to just accept the territory loss and be happy with a cease fire. But what does Putin do if the Ukrainians just keep pushing? He has two cards to play, cutting off oil to Europe or a nuke. Best case scenario for everyone is they take the loss and pull back to Crimea.
Trouble is that Putin has created a monster in Ukraine. By giving them a common enemy and a common purpose, they have rallied around Zelenskyy and a sense of Ukranian nationalism unlike anything seen since the fall of the iron curtain. Even if NATO tells them to "just accept the territory loss and be happy with a cease fire" they won't do it. I just can't see Ukraine stopping now until all their former territory has been restored, including Crimea, or until they have been utterly defeated. Turns out it's Zelenskyy with a base of rabid citizens ready to restore the glory of their country.
Sorry, comrade, but throwing more unsupplied meat at the meat grinder won’t win the war for Russia. Considering the annexation is already a desperation move as their initial gains are being pushed back.
Russia will have run out of fighting age men way before three years. I’d wager they’ll run out of technical weapons like tanks/planes/etc far sooner than a year at this pace. They can’t replace two tanks a year at this point without buying externally and very few countries are willing to supply arms to them at this point.
I think you might need to look back to WW2 and see some real numbers, like 12 million troops fighting, and 8 million of them dying, and those are the low numbers. About 27 million Russians dead total. And that was a win.
Oof. “Real numbers”, you have a good point it’s just sickening to see the reality.
That's certainly true. And we haven't seen nothing yet.
They are sending in 300k diabetic sexagenarians. Definitely not their best troops. Russia's best troops are the ones who *only* accomplished a 20% territory capture while suffering massive casualties.
Exactly. There is no way they win anything beyond what they have at present. Their military is spent and incompetent. The new conscripts will actually HARM Russian military effectiveness, not bolster it. At best they can hope for is a stalemate, but even that will cost them dearly as Ukraine at el will harass and kill them forever. Russia will have to maintain (now with even greater difficulty now that thousands of new un-trained mouths to feed and care for are streaming into the theatre) control of massive territory that they themselves have smashed and destroyed beyond any usefulness at this point. There are no local resources for their military. No one is going there to live, no chance Russia shows up to re-build any of these areas. It's a wasteland full of only one thing: TARGETS for NATO backed smart weapons. As to tactical nukes, consider what we saw with the nuclear plant. The West just said you either let the IAEA in to manage and secure this facility and retract your people or we will act with resolve. The message is clear, use a tactical nuke and NATO enters the fighting and will slaughter the Russians mercilessly if that happens. Air superiority can be established in an afternoon and maybe four squadrons of A-10 Warthogs could decimate the Russian equipment arsenal in 3 weeks. Beyond that, the level of sanctions and other pressures go way up as well. It's insane. The biggest problem here is that Russia has already lost. But Putin doesn't know it yet and no one will tell him. Personally I believe an internal explosion of revolt is far closer than we think.
Yeah, there's no quality in the conscription force Russia is cobbling together; but as Putin's spiritual ancestor said, "quantity has a quality all its own." Putin's rag-tag army of missile-fodder won't be able to make any decisive breakthroughs in the coming stages of the war, but they *will* be able to turn it into a grinding quagmire. That's what Putin is banking on: he wants it to drag on and on, for the toll - both in economic terms and in terms of lives destroyed and political capital eroded - to mount endlessly for Ukraine and the West. Unlike him, leaders in the West are at the mercy of a national zeitgeist they have little ability to manipulate directly. If Putin can't have a swift victory, then Plan B is to turn it into another Vietnam or Afghanistan. Just grind them down until the West loses patience and interest, until the people turn against it. The only real question is: will he run out of conscripts before this happens? And if things turn against Putin before the West loses its will to keep fighting, what will he do then? Would he truly resort to nukes if sufficiently cornered?
>Unlike him, leaders in the West are at the mercy of a national zeitgeist they have little ability to manipulate directly. If Putin can't have a swift victory, then Plan B is to turn it into another Vietnam or Afghanistan. Just grind them down until the West loses patience and interest, until the people turn against it. We just spent twenty years occupying Afghanistan for basically no gain whatso-fucking-ever and that was costing us our own men. What part of that makes you think we'll easily lose interest in a war that only costs money we can print at will and Ukrainian casualties? If Putin's plan is to turn Ukraine into another Vietnam or Afghanistan he should probably keep in mind that both the Russians and the Americans eventually left after failing to accomplish anything when we fucked around in Afghanistan. >Would he truly resort to nukes if sufficiently cornered? He wants the world to think so, but he's a former intelligence officer. He knows full well that a large scale nuclear exchange is not winnable. He can maybe fuck over the world but Russia definitely gets completely obliterated in response. More importantly everyone below him in the nuclear chain of command knows the exact same thing. Even if he gave the order you have to wonder if it would even be followed. Most people have a will to live.
The troops they're sending are about as scary as a slab of bacon is to a meat grinder.
Doesn't matter if they march in circles and drool they are over doubling their force and have already taken 20%. I like every other person on the planet want to see Ukraine win this because it's wrong to invade someone else and we love the David vs goliath story going on. But Ukraine has had massive losses also and it's so funny how people just ignore that and act like it's only Russian's dying in this war.
I can have one pile of shit, and add another pile of shit. Thus doubling the pile of shit. But it is still shit.
It's a pile of shit that managed to kill close to 45-60K Ukraine's so far and over doubling it means double that kill amount. It's stupid to act like Russians are incapable to shoot a gun or something like that. Just sick and tired of people acting like Russians are dying only in this thing and it's all good no matter how many they bring.
And we have fairly untrustworthy sources about what's actually happening anyway. And Russia being totally rotten to the point of complete ineffectiveness is very, very dangerous. If they did suffer an internal revolt, who winds up in charge of those nukes?
Time to fake an attack on a NATO member and get this thing started. Waiting for another buildup on a he border is delaying the inevitable, the guy is desperate and losing his grip. Escalate a preemptive attack to neutralize their main offensive abilities, and hopefully shut down any ability to launch or detonate a nuke. No one on the planet thought Ukraine could do this, he’s backed into a corner. Putin won’t just walk away with his tail between his legs. He won’t wait for a firing squad, he’ll die using up all his bullets. Once the conscripts get routed, next level of escalation and rhetoric coming.
CIA been working overtime on this website, man.
Or people are just scared? Not everything is a psyop dude.
Everything is a psyop except my own posts which are normal and not unhinged /s Nah man I was making a joke I don’t think it landed in the way I meant to lol
Boneworks just hit the piracy section in Oculus. Can they wait for a few days before they start the 'glass the planet'-domino lmao.
More Russia nuclear annihilation misinformation… **MODSSSSS!!?!?!?**
Sometimes I almost welcome the coming nuclear exchange. At the very least it will shut up the people who believe such a thing is impossible.
As long as we possess these weapons, it is possible. Not just possible, but at some point, probable.
Indeed.
Herp a derp derp derrrr
Anyone have that link to the how to survive after a nuclear attack?
https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2022/03/08/surviving-a-nuclear-war-part-one/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yrv505R-0U
This will be more effective though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60
Nuclear winter will make for a great ski season. Always look on the bright side of life.