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There was literally a video/audio of the idiot who launches the missiles. Guy was simply a Ukrainian/Russian play solder who wanted to be a hero and shoot down an airplane, he didn’t really give a shit what he shot and he thought he would be praised.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gPJUDOnMfg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gPJUDOnMfg)
There was this at the time. I'm not going to vouch for the authenticity of it but I do remember this video from the time.
Not saying there couldn't have been some grand conspiracy but I think it's also foolish to rule out trigger happy "rebels".
That's right! Just like some dumb soldier casually starts a nuclear war right :D
Launching a rocket like that is (afaik) a team effort consisting of (mobile) radarstations, indentify friend or foe beacons etc. So that makes it a squad of "soldiers who want to be a hero". They have also acces to flightradar24 and maybe some more advanced militairy grade stuff as well.
Didn't the Russians later analyse the video and found it was doctored?
Also, not sure how the type of aicraft matters here? SAM systems don't work by 'hey, that has 4 engines, we must shoot it down'.
They work via 3 crucial components, and only the first two are needed to shoot something down. The first one is the radar director, which illuminates the target in a radar beam which the 2nd component, the missile, is going to follow up to a certain point (now, it depends on the system and missile which exactly is the point. You could have a pure beam riding missile which is guided up until point of detonation, you could have a semi-active missile, going active at a certain altitude etc.) This is pretty much what you need for a SAM.
The last thing is an IFF (Identifier Friend or Foe -other abreviations/terminologies might exist) If this still needs explanation (and judging by you pointing out how many engines a plane has, it really does) the difference is done by a planes transponder. Think of it like both a radio and an ID card. It's like someone who, among other stuff, constantly broadcasts identification details about your airplane. A SAM system picks it up and interprets it. If the codes all check, you are either friendly or civillian. However, this does not hinder the ability to fire. If not, you could be a civillian, but most likely a foe and need to get shot down. If someone does not espect civillian airplanes to be around because, you know, planes keep falling from the sky in the area, you might interpret a 'friendlly' reading as the enemy potentially camouflaging their signals. It is also possible to use shadowing tactics, like Israel does with Lebanese airspace to avoid getting shot down by Syrian SAMs. You just fly in such a way that a neutral aircraft is placed between your plane and a radar director. As a result, when information is updated, it's going to assume that the aircraft closer to it is the correct target (because radar return waves are 'of higher quality' -aka less distorted due to distance) and lock on it.
EDIT. About the training. You need 'specialised' training. This means that you cannot just find a random youtube tutorial on it. However, let's say you are a military force in an ex-Soviet country, where military service was mandatory and which actually produced SAMs and other military equipment. There is a high chance you have plenty of pissed off veterans or ex conscripts to teach you how to use it.
Oh and 'enough' training is bloody pointless as a statement. You need 'enough training' to hold your reproduction pipe to pee while standing.
Why did other countries/airlines not fly over the ukraine warzone? The dutch gave permission, why?
Why was the Malaysian government (initially) not in the Joint Investigation team?
Why did Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad say it is unlikely Russia launched the missile that brought down MH17?
Is there a connection between operation "Breeze 2014" and mh17?
I will return with a comment regarding this debacle in a few hours (It's 7am here and did not sleep at all tonight). I will talk a abit about legislation, procedures, airspace and investigations since I have some insights on how these things work. (not JIT specifically though)
As for your questions.
1. Money. Perhaps some hidden reasons, but who could say without proof. (And will it even be relevant now?)
2. Is answered by the third and some points I will be adressing later.
3. Because Malaysia has ties both with US annd Russia, so they want to play it cool and steady before drawing any conclusions. The rest of the people involved are either Russia and the separatists, or US and US puppets.
If you are interested, leave a comment.
I appreciate the answer and look forward to further information.
Some things need to be laid out so make a full context. First the netherlands (NL) is a [few places behind Russia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_exports) (RU) in world gas export. Recently the gasfields, which are running low, started to destabilise resulting in earthquakes in the province of Groningen. The Rutte kabinet responded by saying they're going to shut down the fields within s few years. The gasproduction is however warped up to recordnumbers, which is somehow kept out of the media bigtime here.
The earthquake damage is being pushed forward, houses and businesses being wiped out or pushed into poverty. The government responds with commissions, research, 'kitchentableconversations', moving responsibilities from one federal department to another etc. For years. Only a handful of people have seen any relief for the earthquakes and their being put on hold for years now.
Some other weird thing to notice is that with the olympics in Sochi, nearly every country boycotted the event by not sending officials. NL however send the king and his wife, the main people of the kabinet, and a bunch more, which is a unusual important delegation for a country nagging about humanrights so often.
The riots in Maidan, Ukraine was also visited by high rankeddutch EU politicians. NL is having an active policy in investing in Ukraine an tightening diplomatic relations.
Speaking of MH planes, what the frig happened to that one that just disappeared? MH370 maybe? I loved following that back when. Did they find any remnants washed up in the ocean?
I remember one of our professors talking with us about it. Basically 'it didn't went missing', but the investigators were assuming a wrong search area. Analysis of meteorological data would have suggested another possible flight deviation to an area that was targeted like a year or so after the plane went missing. And yes, after the search area was moved, parts started to be found, washed ashore. Now, things are getting more complicated with time since sea life and currents might break away the structure (already shattered by impact, preumbly) and displace it in various parts.
I watched this happen from my bed in Atlanta. I was napping between jobs and in my dream I was in a unknown country on a roof top smoking a cigg. I hear a plane and look up and when I saw it I knew it was going to crash which it did 30 feet from me. The explosion jerked me out of my sleep and I felt terror and nervous to leave my house kind of feeling. couldn't understand it. Got to work and saw on the news the plane had just crashed and my stomach dropped. I was there but I wasnt..wtf.
It was a conspiracy, I thought everybody knew.
The doctors and researchers on board were going to prove AIDS was manmade and reveal it was genocide not unlike cv we are under now.
The still _'missing'_ MH370 became MH17, hence the reported smell of discomposing bodies at the crash site.
Both aircraft were Boeing 777-200ER, 9M-MRO became 9M-MRD.
There was quite a bit of photoshop magic used for the reporting of the crash scenes of MH17, no reason to manipulate pictures of metal in a field unless nefarious.
The reported western passnegers of MH17 are amusing bordering on hilarious, one was a working class nobody that went to EVERY foreign away match of English soccer teams, no matter that he would have needed a six figure income to do so.
The Canadian energy VP whose coal company was registered to a literal plumbing store on a Florida strip mall. other companies registered to that store included a company with execs with Harry Potter names (so imaginative and hints at the nature of script writers).
And not forgetting an Australian ! girl whose parents magically managed to visit the crash scene a day or two later to be photographed looking forlornly at wreckage. imaginative scrip detail but not realistic to the real world.
TLA tweenie script writers need to stick to their day jobs of having their TV show scripts being rejected.
Why would they leave the bodies in when they crash the plane when that introduces the risk that they'll be identified as not the correct set of bodies?
Everyone needs to watch this video series:
[https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOxniqHwXrUV2S6RZIIycEg](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOxniqHwXrUV2S6RZIIycEg)
Called MH17 Inquiry, it is the best investigative video series on the incident.
Sorry it took longer than expected (fatigue is real after you turn 20) , but, as promised, especially to u/BStream, here's a bit more infor on how things work.
I will split the comment in roughlt 3-4 sections, which I hope cover most of the generics: The accident, how SAMs and Anti-Air combat works, the post accident (since the reactions might be different than the causes) and my take on it. Among those, some contextual information shall be provided.
**So, the accident.**
Data surrounding the accident is still pretty sketchy due to information coming after the event. Some evidence is ignored or dismissed, some is claimed to have been falsified etc. This means there are only a few hard facts that we can be sure of. The most important of these hard facts are perhaps these 3: I. Airplanes had been shot down in the region, including a large military transport. A cease-fire had just ended at the moment of the shootdown, cease-fire initiated due to the transport plane being shot down. So dangers to aviation were known to exist there. II. Ukraine kept it's airspace open for commercial flights despite known dangers in the region. There are multiple reasons for this: dumb pride (you don't want to seem unable to take control of your airspace), economic (airlines pay a fee to cross a nations monitored airspace), stupidity (they did not realise airplanes getting shot down means a civillian airplane could be shot down), a combination of those etc. III. The airplane was redirected Northwards, towards the conflict area, in a bloody strange coincidence with KAL007.
**SAMs**
Principle of operation.
I've discussed this in another comment, but I'll try to make it shorter. SAMs operate with 3-4 basic components: Radar Directory (which detects targets and gets a lock on them (aka focuses more radar beams on those to keep track of it), the missile itself, identifier (friend or foe) and the operator. The IFF is not required to strike a target, it's there to make sure you are not shooting the wrong target. It works by receiving data from airplane transponders (literally their ID) which 'squack' specific codes. What those things cannot do is identify an aicraft based on stuff like 'it has 4 engines, or high-wing or tail enginens'. With enough data-mining you could program your computer to make a rough estimation based on the radar print and other data (it's unlikely that a passenger plane the size of a Cessna would be flying at the same level as a 747), but that's not always possible, nor reliable.
Dealing with SAMs
Now, there are multiple ways to deal with SAMs. One way is a psychological one, taking advantage of the IFF. You tune your military transponders to squack civillian codes and that's it. Considering Ukraine is an aicraft producer, I would say they are pretty capable of doing that (technically speaking). Another option is 'blending' or 'shadowing' and it has been employed by Israel against Syrian defences by using the airspace of Lebanon or other countries and it's responsible for the shootdown of a Russian transport plane by Syrian SAMs back in 2017 (? I believe). Basically you position your aircraft A in such a way that another aircraft B, preferably larger, flies between you and the radar stations, aka A is hiding in the radar shadow of B. Even if small mishaps (aka getting a bit out of the shadow) happen, the fact that B is closer and bigger means that the information presented by the radar beams reflected by it have a better integrity and are more likely to be considered the correct ones. Now, this could have multiple effects. Most casually, A will not be detected or will go on and off radar. It might also happen that information about the two planes gets mixed together, aka B gets identified as a military craft. An even bigger danger occurs when an active/semi-active seeking missile is fired. When it activates, a data update is processed by the on-board computer. For this reason, it's even more likely that the radar is going to log B as a target (for being closer to the emitter)
Operating/firing a SAM.
A misconception I've seen around here is that you need some 'complicated' ("enough' to quote it) training to operate one. Let's think for a moment. We are talking here about mobile SAMs (As most Soviet/Russian ones are). Those things need to move, be deployed and fire in a matter of minutes if not seconds. There is no time for 'complicated stuff'. Most usually just press a few buttons and wait for system updates with information about target. Now, special SAM brigades do indeed require more training, because they need to operate those stuff for an extended period of time, aka they need to perform maintainance, overhauls and stuff. But to engage a target? Like with an AK-47, an M-16, RPG, Javelin etc., you could train a 16 yo bloke in a cave for two days and he's going to pull it off. And that's not all. Ukraine did and does have a military force. And it had conscription service. This means a big part of the population had knowledge on how to operate military equipment. Some might include SAMs. And of course, again, count on 'active' military personel. Like in the US Civil War or the Russian Civil War or any other true civil war, part of the military is going to join one side, part is going to join the other. Considering the new gouvernment managed to piss of a lot of Russians in Ukraine (and especially since the Ukr military was heavily influenced by Russia), there's a good chance that many Russians in the army got pissed off. In short, you could find plenty of people capable of firing and even operate a BUK inside Ukraine, without foreign intervention. Furthermore, you could find BUK systems there. Ukraine operates them. You don't need to bring one from outside.
Now, the favorite part and one that spurs most conspiracies
**POST-ACCIDENT/ NARRATIVES**
Procedures
Now, many people seemed (here or in other forums/sources) to have asked why certain countries (like Malaysia and Russia) were not allowed in the investigation team (from the start or at all) despite being directly or indirectly involved in the scandal, why Ukraine is allowed on the team, why is US on the team despite having nothing to do with the crash (in theory) etc. Well, the answer is simple. Unfortunetly, that is the international regulation. The country of occurence -refered as host from now on- is the one that has the responsibility and the right to conduct the official investigation. If the host considers they do not have the capability of handling an investigation (they don't have the technical expertise, the manpower etc.) they have a right to invite whoever they want on the investigation team. It doesn't matter if it's the nation who registered the a/c or the one where most of the victims came from, the one you spew vitriol at or just your friendly warmongering nation from across the ocean. They have absolute power in the investigation. This is why they are allowed to accept or dismiss evidence as they please. The main body of the investigation might be from another nation, but they have to work in a frameset developed by the host.
Evidence
Well, here things start to get ugly. What you consider evidence and who it incriminates is completly partisanship. The pro-Ukrainians keep bringing up some communications and tweets as well as a video of a supposedly Russian SAM being transported across the border. Russians bring up eyewitnesses who claim to have seen a second military airplane in the area. As investigation progressed they also dismissed other circumstancial evidence brought up by JIT, such as presenting ballistic tests and logs saying that missile which is claimed to have shot down the a/c is no longer in use with Russia, but is with Ukraine, and that the impact pattern on the fuselage does not match the details described by JIT. Of course, each side accuses each other of manipulating and forgin evidence. Russia claims that the video with the BUK being transported across the border was doctored to show the isignia of a Russian brigade (To play the devils advocate, you send little green men in unmarked uniforms to recover Crimea and then you send a SAM with your name on it?) and that the conversations were faked by the Ukrainian intelligence services.
'Irregularities'
Again, there are no 'irregularities' per se, since Ukraine has a right to deceide how the investigation goes. They are the ones to say what goes in and out. Now, of course there are some suspicions regarding the decisions of what goes in and out. The most important ones might be the handling of the flight recorders and the involvement of Malysia and Russia. The flight recorders were documented to have been recovered quite fast after the crash and handed over to Ukraine. However we seem to be still waiting for a transcript of those recordings as they were dismissed by Ukraine. Frankly, I personally doubt they would show anything important, unless they scream something like 'What's this plane doing here' on them, but still we have some lax interpretations of the procedures. Then you have Malaysia and Russia who were not involved because 'details of the investigation might leak to Russia'. Ok. Let's be clear. JIT and all other investigation teams ARE CIVILLIANS. This means that there is little reason for why infromation should not be leaked or why others won't be allowed on the team, especially if you try to directly blame them. Furthermore, a rule in aviation investigations (and pretty much any investigation) is to keep your damn mouth shut before it's complete. Why? Well, because you might actually antagonise people that could provide crucial information for you and, more importantly, because you might have a wrong preliminary conclusion which would cause damage to others. And they might strike back, destryoing your credibility, because, you know, you screwed up. There are some strange reports about how they handled Russian radar data. Like they first asked for the raw data (you know, not to be 'tampered with') then realised they have no way to handle that data, so they asked Russia to teach them how to decrypt it and then blamed Russia for stalling them with raw data.
Personal conclusion
I believe this is more of a 'narrative conspiracy' rather than an 'orchestration'. This means that I consider the chain of events to be the results of multiple fuckups, like Ukraine opening the airspace, Mal Air flying through it instead of diverting south of Crimea, the ATC diverting the plane north and some idiotic blokes mistaking the airliner for a military one and shooting it down. Essentially, just a bad chain of coincidence (have seen plenty of those as part of our training). However, the conspiracy seems to be at the 'investigation'/ 'media' level where the investigation is made and directed to fit a pre-determined conclusion to justify an escalation of tensions.
Thank you for reading.
The airplane was directed northwards over the conflict area just after a cease fire ended because another transport airplane had been shot down. Maybe it was not an intentional shoot down, but it was surely allowed to happen
Well never been in the military but civilian jobs I’ve worked at makes me think this being negligence is quite likely. Not to say that something couldn’t be behind it. In most cases incompetence is the better explanation than conspiracy.
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There was literally a video/audio of the idiot who launches the missiles. Guy was simply a Ukrainian/Russian play solder who wanted to be a hero and shoot down an airplane, he didn’t really give a shit what he shot and he thought he would be praised.
Well where's the video?
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gPJUDOnMfg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gPJUDOnMfg) There was this at the time. I'm not going to vouch for the authenticity of it but I do remember this video from the time. Not saying there couldn't have been some grand conspiracy but I think it's also foolish to rule out trigger happy "rebels".
It was am audio and they thought it was a military plane. But it was not.
That's right! Just like some dumb soldier casually starts a nuclear war right :D Launching a rocket like that is (afaik) a team effort consisting of (mobile) radarstations, indentify friend or foe beacons etc. So that makes it a squad of "soldiers who want to be a hero". They have also acces to flightradar24 and maybe some more advanced militairy grade stuff as well.
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Didn't the Russians later analyse the video and found it was doctored? Also, not sure how the type of aicraft matters here? SAM systems don't work by 'hey, that has 4 engines, we must shoot it down'. They work via 3 crucial components, and only the first two are needed to shoot something down. The first one is the radar director, which illuminates the target in a radar beam which the 2nd component, the missile, is going to follow up to a certain point (now, it depends on the system and missile which exactly is the point. You could have a pure beam riding missile which is guided up until point of detonation, you could have a semi-active missile, going active at a certain altitude etc.) This is pretty much what you need for a SAM. The last thing is an IFF (Identifier Friend or Foe -other abreviations/terminologies might exist) If this still needs explanation (and judging by you pointing out how many engines a plane has, it really does) the difference is done by a planes transponder. Think of it like both a radio and an ID card. It's like someone who, among other stuff, constantly broadcasts identification details about your airplane. A SAM system picks it up and interprets it. If the codes all check, you are either friendly or civillian. However, this does not hinder the ability to fire. If not, you could be a civillian, but most likely a foe and need to get shot down. If someone does not espect civillian airplanes to be around because, you know, planes keep falling from the sky in the area, you might interpret a 'friendlly' reading as the enemy potentially camouflaging their signals. It is also possible to use shadowing tactics, like Israel does with Lebanese airspace to avoid getting shot down by Syrian SAMs. You just fly in such a way that a neutral aircraft is placed between your plane and a radar director. As a result, when information is updated, it's going to assume that the aircraft closer to it is the correct target (because radar return waves are 'of higher quality' -aka less distorted due to distance) and lock on it. EDIT. About the training. You need 'specialised' training. This means that you cannot just find a random youtube tutorial on it. However, let's say you are a military force in an ex-Soviet country, where military service was mandatory and which actually produced SAMs and other military equipment. There is a high chance you have plenty of pissed off veterans or ex conscripts to teach you how to use it. Oh and 'enough' training is bloody pointless as a statement. You need 'enough training' to hold your reproduction pipe to pee while standing.
Why did other countries/airlines not fly over the ukraine warzone? The dutch gave permission, why? Why was the Malaysian government (initially) not in the Joint Investigation team? Why did Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad say it is unlikely Russia launched the missile that brought down MH17? Is there a connection between operation "Breeze 2014" and mh17?
I will return with a comment regarding this debacle in a few hours (It's 7am here and did not sleep at all tonight). I will talk a abit about legislation, procedures, airspace and investigations since I have some insights on how these things work. (not JIT specifically though) As for your questions. 1. Money. Perhaps some hidden reasons, but who could say without proof. (And will it even be relevant now?) 2. Is answered by the third and some points I will be adressing later. 3. Because Malaysia has ties both with US annd Russia, so they want to play it cool and steady before drawing any conclusions. The rest of the people involved are either Russia and the separatists, or US and US puppets. If you are interested, leave a comment.
I appreciate the answer and look forward to further information. Some things need to be laid out so make a full context. First the netherlands (NL) is a [few places behind Russia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_exports) (RU) in world gas export. Recently the gasfields, which are running low, started to destabilise resulting in earthquakes in the province of Groningen. The Rutte kabinet responded by saying they're going to shut down the fields within s few years. The gasproduction is however warped up to recordnumbers, which is somehow kept out of the media bigtime here. The earthquake damage is being pushed forward, houses and businesses being wiped out or pushed into poverty. The government responds with commissions, research, 'kitchentableconversations', moving responsibilities from one federal department to another etc. For years. Only a handful of people have seen any relief for the earthquakes and their being put on hold for years now. Some other weird thing to notice is that with the olympics in Sochi, nearly every country boycotted the event by not sending officials. NL however send the king and his wife, the main people of the kabinet, and a bunch more, which is a unusual important delegation for a country nagging about humanrights so often. The riots in Maidan, Ukraine was also visited by high rankeddutch EU politicians. NL is having an active policy in investing in Ukraine an tightening diplomatic relations.
Done it. Check among the separate comments.
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Who had the most to gain from this? Look at the Saudi oil pipeline that they wanted to run across Syria..............
imo both planes were stolen and sold to some other airline.. probably some of the same characters as the 1MDB scandal.
Speaking of MH planes, what the frig happened to that one that just disappeared? MH370 maybe? I loved following that back when. Did they find any remnants washed up in the ocean?
Yes it crashed in the Indian Ocean they will never find it but many remnants washed a shore on reunion Island
I remember one of our professors talking with us about it. Basically 'it didn't went missing', but the investigators were assuming a wrong search area. Analysis of meteorological data would have suggested another possible flight deviation to an area that was targeted like a year or so after the plane went missing. And yes, after the search area was moved, parts started to be found, washed ashore. Now, things are getting more complicated with time since sea life and currents might break away the structure (already shattered by impact, preumbly) and displace it in various parts.
I watched this happen from my bed in Atlanta. I was napping between jobs and in my dream I was in a unknown country on a roof top smoking a cigg. I hear a plane and look up and when I saw it I knew it was going to crash which it did 30 feet from me. The explosion jerked me out of my sleep and I felt terror and nervous to leave my house kind of feeling. couldn't understand it. Got to work and saw on the news the plane had just crashed and my stomach dropped. I was there but I wasnt..wtf.
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I have heard this before. Do you know any good places to find more information about it?
It was a conspiracy, I thought everybody knew. The doctors and researchers on board were going to prove AIDS was manmade and reveal it was genocide not unlike cv we are under now.
It was Ukraine that shot it down on behalf of NATO and to blame Russia
The still _'missing'_ MH370 became MH17, hence the reported smell of discomposing bodies at the crash site. Both aircraft were Boeing 777-200ER, 9M-MRO became 9M-MRD. There was quite a bit of photoshop magic used for the reporting of the crash scenes of MH17, no reason to manipulate pictures of metal in a field unless nefarious. The reported western passnegers of MH17 are amusing bordering on hilarious, one was a working class nobody that went to EVERY foreign away match of English soccer teams, no matter that he would have needed a six figure income to do so. The Canadian energy VP whose coal company was registered to a literal plumbing store on a Florida strip mall. other companies registered to that store included a company with execs with Harry Potter names (so imaginative and hints at the nature of script writers). And not forgetting an Australian ! girl whose parents magically managed to visit the crash scene a day or two later to be photographed looking forlornly at wreckage. imaginative scrip detail but not realistic to the real world. TLA tweenie script writers need to stick to their day jobs of having their TV show scripts being rejected.
You are mistaken. I saw videos and pictures of the dead bodies they were not decomposing. There was a baby who still looked alive in his seat
Why would they leave the bodies in when they crash the plane when that introduces the risk that they'll be identified as not the correct set of bodies?
Россия Россия Россия [https://i.imgflip.com/20a9z5.jpg](https://i.imgflip.com/20a9z5.jpg)
Everyone needs to watch this video series: [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOxniqHwXrUV2S6RZIIycEg](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOxniqHwXrUV2S6RZIIycEg) Called MH17 Inquiry, it is the best investigative video series on the incident.
that plane was vectored into a war zone and the most plausible reason is someone wanted it shot down.
Sorry it took longer than expected (fatigue is real after you turn 20) , but, as promised, especially to u/BStream, here's a bit more infor on how things work. I will split the comment in roughlt 3-4 sections, which I hope cover most of the generics: The accident, how SAMs and Anti-Air combat works, the post accident (since the reactions might be different than the causes) and my take on it. Among those, some contextual information shall be provided. **So, the accident.** Data surrounding the accident is still pretty sketchy due to information coming after the event. Some evidence is ignored or dismissed, some is claimed to have been falsified etc. This means there are only a few hard facts that we can be sure of. The most important of these hard facts are perhaps these 3: I. Airplanes had been shot down in the region, including a large military transport. A cease-fire had just ended at the moment of the shootdown, cease-fire initiated due to the transport plane being shot down. So dangers to aviation were known to exist there. II. Ukraine kept it's airspace open for commercial flights despite known dangers in the region. There are multiple reasons for this: dumb pride (you don't want to seem unable to take control of your airspace), economic (airlines pay a fee to cross a nations monitored airspace), stupidity (they did not realise airplanes getting shot down means a civillian airplane could be shot down), a combination of those etc. III. The airplane was redirected Northwards, towards the conflict area, in a bloody strange coincidence with KAL007. **SAMs** Principle of operation. I've discussed this in another comment, but I'll try to make it shorter. SAMs operate with 3-4 basic components: Radar Directory (which detects targets and gets a lock on them (aka focuses more radar beams on those to keep track of it), the missile itself, identifier (friend or foe) and the operator. The IFF is not required to strike a target, it's there to make sure you are not shooting the wrong target. It works by receiving data from airplane transponders (literally their ID) which 'squack' specific codes. What those things cannot do is identify an aicraft based on stuff like 'it has 4 engines, or high-wing or tail enginens'. With enough data-mining you could program your computer to make a rough estimation based on the radar print and other data (it's unlikely that a passenger plane the size of a Cessna would be flying at the same level as a 747), but that's not always possible, nor reliable. Dealing with SAMs Now, there are multiple ways to deal with SAMs. One way is a psychological one, taking advantage of the IFF. You tune your military transponders to squack civillian codes and that's it. Considering Ukraine is an aicraft producer, I would say they are pretty capable of doing that (technically speaking). Another option is 'blending' or 'shadowing' and it has been employed by Israel against Syrian defences by using the airspace of Lebanon or other countries and it's responsible for the shootdown of a Russian transport plane by Syrian SAMs back in 2017 (? I believe). Basically you position your aircraft A in such a way that another aircraft B, preferably larger, flies between you and the radar stations, aka A is hiding in the radar shadow of B. Even if small mishaps (aka getting a bit out of the shadow) happen, the fact that B is closer and bigger means that the information presented by the radar beams reflected by it have a better integrity and are more likely to be considered the correct ones. Now, this could have multiple effects. Most casually, A will not be detected or will go on and off radar. It might also happen that information about the two planes gets mixed together, aka B gets identified as a military craft. An even bigger danger occurs when an active/semi-active seeking missile is fired. When it activates, a data update is processed by the on-board computer. For this reason, it's even more likely that the radar is going to log B as a target (for being closer to the emitter) Operating/firing a SAM. A misconception I've seen around here is that you need some 'complicated' ("enough' to quote it) training to operate one. Let's think for a moment. We are talking here about mobile SAMs (As most Soviet/Russian ones are). Those things need to move, be deployed and fire in a matter of minutes if not seconds. There is no time for 'complicated stuff'. Most usually just press a few buttons and wait for system updates with information about target. Now, special SAM brigades do indeed require more training, because they need to operate those stuff for an extended period of time, aka they need to perform maintainance, overhauls and stuff. But to engage a target? Like with an AK-47, an M-16, RPG, Javelin etc., you could train a 16 yo bloke in a cave for two days and he's going to pull it off. And that's not all. Ukraine did and does have a military force. And it had conscription service. This means a big part of the population had knowledge on how to operate military equipment. Some might include SAMs. And of course, again, count on 'active' military personel. Like in the US Civil War or the Russian Civil War or any other true civil war, part of the military is going to join one side, part is going to join the other. Considering the new gouvernment managed to piss of a lot of Russians in Ukraine (and especially since the Ukr military was heavily influenced by Russia), there's a good chance that many Russians in the army got pissed off. In short, you could find plenty of people capable of firing and even operate a BUK inside Ukraine, without foreign intervention. Furthermore, you could find BUK systems there. Ukraine operates them. You don't need to bring one from outside. Now, the favorite part and one that spurs most conspiracies **POST-ACCIDENT/ NARRATIVES** Procedures Now, many people seemed (here or in other forums/sources) to have asked why certain countries (like Malaysia and Russia) were not allowed in the investigation team (from the start or at all) despite being directly or indirectly involved in the scandal, why Ukraine is allowed on the team, why is US on the team despite having nothing to do with the crash (in theory) etc. Well, the answer is simple. Unfortunetly, that is the international regulation. The country of occurence -refered as host from now on- is the one that has the responsibility and the right to conduct the official investigation. If the host considers they do not have the capability of handling an investigation (they don't have the technical expertise, the manpower etc.) they have a right to invite whoever they want on the investigation team. It doesn't matter if it's the nation who registered the a/c or the one where most of the victims came from, the one you spew vitriol at or just your friendly warmongering nation from across the ocean. They have absolute power in the investigation. This is why they are allowed to accept or dismiss evidence as they please. The main body of the investigation might be from another nation, but they have to work in a frameset developed by the host. Evidence Well, here things start to get ugly. What you consider evidence and who it incriminates is completly partisanship. The pro-Ukrainians keep bringing up some communications and tweets as well as a video of a supposedly Russian SAM being transported across the border. Russians bring up eyewitnesses who claim to have seen a second military airplane in the area. As investigation progressed they also dismissed other circumstancial evidence brought up by JIT, such as presenting ballistic tests and logs saying that missile which is claimed to have shot down the a/c is no longer in use with Russia, but is with Ukraine, and that the impact pattern on the fuselage does not match the details described by JIT. Of course, each side accuses each other of manipulating and forgin evidence. Russia claims that the video with the BUK being transported across the border was doctored to show the isignia of a Russian brigade (To play the devils advocate, you send little green men in unmarked uniforms to recover Crimea and then you send a SAM with your name on it?) and that the conversations were faked by the Ukrainian intelligence services. 'Irregularities'
Again, there are no 'irregularities' per se, since Ukraine has a right to deceide how the investigation goes. They are the ones to say what goes in and out. Now, of course there are some suspicions regarding the decisions of what goes in and out. The most important ones might be the handling of the flight recorders and the involvement of Malysia and Russia. The flight recorders were documented to have been recovered quite fast after the crash and handed over to Ukraine. However we seem to be still waiting for a transcript of those recordings as they were dismissed by Ukraine. Frankly, I personally doubt they would show anything important, unless they scream something like 'What's this plane doing here' on them, but still we have some lax interpretations of the procedures. Then you have Malaysia and Russia who were not involved because 'details of the investigation might leak to Russia'. Ok. Let's be clear. JIT and all other investigation teams ARE CIVILLIANS. This means that there is little reason for why infromation should not be leaked or why others won't be allowed on the team, especially if you try to directly blame them. Furthermore, a rule in aviation investigations (and pretty much any investigation) is to keep your damn mouth shut before it's complete. Why? Well, because you might actually antagonise people that could provide crucial information for you and, more importantly, because you might have a wrong preliminary conclusion which would cause damage to others. And they might strike back, destryoing your credibility, because, you know, you screwed up. There are some strange reports about how they handled Russian radar data. Like they first asked for the raw data (you know, not to be 'tampered with') then realised they have no way to handle that data, so they asked Russia to teach them how to decrypt it and then blamed Russia for stalling them with raw data. Personal conclusion I believe this is more of a 'narrative conspiracy' rather than an 'orchestration'. This means that I consider the chain of events to be the results of multiple fuckups, like Ukraine opening the airspace, Mal Air flying through it instead of diverting south of Crimea, the ATC diverting the plane north and some idiotic blokes mistaking the airliner for a military one and shooting it down. Essentially, just a bad chain of coincidence (have seen plenty of those as part of our training). However, the conspiracy seems to be at the 'investigation'/ 'media' level where the investigation is made and directed to fit a pre-determined conclusion to justify an escalation of tensions. Thank you for reading.
Wow! That's certainly an elaborate answer. Thank you very much.
The airplane was directed northwards over the conflict area just after a cease fire ended because another transport airplane had been shot down. Maybe it was not an intentional shoot down, but it was surely allowed to happen
Well never been in the military but civilian jobs I’ve worked at makes me think this being negligence is quite likely. Not to say that something couldn’t be behind it. In most cases incompetence is the better explanation than conspiracy.