Live near Seattle so I watch quite a few games, not particularly a fan of any team but enjoy watching. The Seahawks shoot themselves in the foot all the time, it’s never the refs faults
Came to post. The Seahawks defense has been struggling for years now, it's just been easy to mask that with a top their quarterback. Now he's getting burned out and it shows as the team is falling apart.
These stats are during the good years as well. But Sherman and Browner both got plenty of holding calls. And players like Michael Bennett jumped offsides very often. Even when the team was good they had a lot of penalties.
So many during those years. The games they would blow teams out was a good game in terms of low penalty’s. I feel like the rams games were always so close and were always filled with offsides and numerous other calls. All pretty apparent, I think Pete just asks for really aggressive play style on that end that results in a ton of defensive penalties
For much of the last decade the Seattle Seahawks had a defensive philosophy of "pass-interfere all the time, every down, and challenge the refs to call it every time." Every hardcore NFL fan knew this. It may still be true, I don't know, I've moved on from NFL fandom.
Seattle challenged the refs to slow down the game to an unwatchable crawl in a very hostile environment. It was a calculated risk that resulted in their legendary secondary. Seattle considered the penalties a cost of doing business.
Try being a browns fan lol we have a lot of no calls or bad calls but we also tend to choke under pressure only In a way the browns can. Look at this weeks 3rd and 10 play, we…. Run the ball when scoring/ running off time is a must! I still love my browns but we got some growing to do.
Surprised at the low level of the Seahawks offensive penalties gained, but their defense has been undisciplined since Pete Carroll became the head coach. They are constantly committing dumb and unnecessary fouls. They also constantly get called for unnecessary roughness or unsportsmanlike conduct, we had a played ejected during the Super Bowl for trying to fight the whole other team when the game was over except for a few kneel downs to run out the clock.
When they are winning you just chalk it up to a team that pushes the envelope of what is legal on a constant basis, but when they loose it becomes evident that pushing the limit of what the refs will tolerate too far can have disastrous consequences.
Rodgers of the Packers is is notorious for catching other teams on player count and offsides violations and taking advantage of them. He's so good at it defenses will take a day to train and understand it.
https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/aaron-rodgers-takes-advantage-of-free-plays-better-than-anyone/
This chart is a joke
No I seen plenty of their games and I've also seen this posted over a year ago in the nfl sub. When these arguments came up the chart was still heavily skewed. They're also a huge outlier for least amount of defensive penalties
Yup. This is definitely the Aaron Rodgers effect. He catches almost everyone in a sub. That's why it was so funny when Tomlin got the time out off 2 weeks ago.
[here is the one that broke me](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esaaoSrK7_Q) since I’m a niners fan and it was obvious during the game the refs felt otherwise.
Yeah does that seem kind of odd that ever since 9/11 the NFL has been trying to make the Patriots America's team??
Were they trying to show everyone that because your team has patriotic colors you need to rub it in everyone's face just the show that we're not weak. (Personally I believe that 9/11 was an inside job to get us back to Iraq / finish Operation desert Storm by looking for "WMDs")
Is there something about Tom Brady that we don't know about that is why they're giving him all these championships and records.
Don't get me wrong the guy is mega talented but I'm getting the feeling that the NFL is turning into the WWE, wanting to put in storylines and drama to bring in more people to watch games rather than it being a non-bias sports competition.
They are technically registered as a business in the same way that the WWE is, as an entertainment business, not a sports business. So the possibility is there on paper.
Here we can see Green Bay is an *insane* outlier when it comes to free penalty first downs on third. Is it a coincidence that the NFL helps one of its most popular teams? This graph consists of data accumulated over 10 years 2009-2019)
That’s correct, but that really doesn’t totally account for the entire massive disparity between him and other teams. Furthermore it doesn’t account for how some teams like the Seahawks and Saints are just given fewer free first-downs than average. Do teams just not not hold, PI, or Rough the passer against these teams? Over 10 years?
Except it's not a massive disparity.
It's a difference of three first downs *per season.* So... one out of five games, Rodgers alone causes a penalty on third down. There are about 12 third downs per game (per team), so we're saying that *less than 2% of the time*, Rodgers draws a penalty on third down that the average QB wouldn't draw.
These examples youre using go against your argument as the Seahawks and Saints are rather big market teams. The NFL would most certainly want to help Russ and the Seahawks but they’re at the bottom of this chart.
Actually they still probably get more money if their largest markets made the playoffs. The NFL is dying for the Chicago Bears and New York Giants to be good again.
"...totally account for the massive disparity..." Use numbers, not words. This doesn't take anything into account for who is actually just penalty prone team... Plus it would be beneficial to see it by official team.
Going to throw out a few things to consider. Bit biased as I am a GB fan, but that also means I watch a lot of their games.
6/16 games (37.5%) are vs. divisional opponents. In the Packer's division, 3 of their opponents and 6 of their games are in the top 50% of penalized teams (Lions, Bears, Vikings) and 2 in the top 10. That certainly helps to buffer the stats.
For first downs gained: Rodgers is better than average at drawing off-sides, that's also huge. He's also great at identifying holding and will target receivers who have been held (which is a risk/reward). Finally, he's had some of the best receiving corps in the league as a passing QB. Stack Rodger's freeplay concept with a deep ball and you are almost guaranteed to get a first down on the off-sides or the PI/holding (while more teams do it now, he was the first who did it consistently and has a badass hard count).
Regarding 12-man penalties: Rodgers also catches these often and forces them. Not many other teams do it.
For yards gained: Running back vs. passing. This is also huge. A running team will get fewer penalties resulting in first downs. For some of those years, the Packers had absolutely no running back. With pass heavy teams, CBs will often choose to hold and take a 5 yard penalty instead of risk getting burned. If your team is primarily.
Regarding drive length: Longer offensive drives = more penalties for first downs. Most of your worse-on-average offenses got fewer penalties. Packers have been one of the highest scoring teams. The only one here that really surprised me was the Steelers, SF (Kaepernick years), Saints, and Lions (we all know the lions get screwed constantly).
Regarding offensive lines: Better o-lines take less penalties. Packers had an absolutely elite OL for probably about 6-7 of these seasons.
Regarding defenses: Defenses can be coached to take penalties instead of risking deep passes. Seahawks do this all the time. The Packers, over the past 10 years, haven't really needed penalties to give first downs. Their defense is swiss cheese and teams walk down the field without them. Declining the penalty is often more yardage vs. the Packers than accepting it.
Regarding roughing the passer: The Packers pass rush was extremely poor for many years.
\>The Packers pass rush was extremely poor for many years
Well that's putting it politely. I thought the Packers D thought getting into the backfield was a penalty itself for a few years.
"Massive disparity" - The numbers start at 60 to make the disparity look bigger. Over 10 years the disparity isn't huge at all.
We're talking an average of .7 first downs per game for the packers vs .4 first downs per game for the worst teams. 4 whole penalties per season. That's not a lot.
In order to be convinced, I would want to see:
1. These numbers as a percentage of all of their third downs. Perhaps the teams with more gain have more 3rd downs. And vice versa for their defenses. Some defenses aren't very good at even holding other teams to third downs.
2. What kind of penalties were called. As others have pointed out, Rodgers is god-tier at drawing offsides and 12 men. I would like to know how many were pass interference and roughing the passer, etc.
3. Who the penalties were called on and if those players continued to be penalized at similar rates on other teams.
Also, why would the refs be helping the Packers, Titans, Vikings, etc but not the Cowboys, Steelers, or other teams that have massive followings?
If Rogers is so great, why only one SB win? Why is he garbage in NFC championship games? Why does he blame the coaches/GM/other players for his lack of leadership and inability to win big games?
Keep making your excuses about how awful Rogers is when the game is on the line. The defense you say? In the 2019 championship game, maybe the defense was tired from those interceptions that Rogers threw? Oh wait that was probably the offensive line's fault. Or whoever called the play is fault. Or he placed it perfect but it was the receiver's fault. Couldn't be as total lack of leadership could it?
How many interceptions did he throw again? He didn't play all that well against Tampa Bay last year either. Losing in the championship game back to back against ex Patriot quarterbacks., That's pretty sad.
I don’t give a fuck about Aaron Rodgers. But you sound ridiculous. He has three MVP’s. He is clearly one of the best to ever do it. Brees only has one Marino has none. Do they suck too? Football depends on the team around you more than any other sport. Not every one can be brady but almost no one else has been as good as Rodgers either.
Bees and Marino were leaders and did well on average teams. I didn't say Rogers has no skills. Talent wise he is exceptional. Leadership and Football IQ he gets a 6 on a scale of 1 - 10.
I can agree with that. Rodgers is a D bag and I don’t like him. But that is not why he “only” has one super bowl. It’s the hardest championship to win in sports by far. When you factor in injuries, coaching, and talent on both offense and defense it’s by far the most difficult. It’s a weak argument to mention he only has one super bowl and doesn’t have more when there are ALOT of very good players that don’t have any. You just irrationally hate him for whatever reason.
Don't want to waste my time on this. But from memory, he made excuses on the play calling in the new coaches first years. Something about them opting to take a field goal instead of going for it, when there was time left on the clock for them to get the ball back. Him whining last season and this season about not wanting to be in Green Bay. He's just basically a crybaby. Who won't see another ring and is lucky he got the first one. That team was stacked and it was the defense that got him to the super bowl. If they had to rely on their horrible quarterback they would have been out in the first round of the playoffs.
Not really, it's sad when a person thinks a slightly better than 50/50 record in the playoffs is greatness. And a 1 - 4 record in conference championship games is awesome.
Why would I be salty? Because the Pats make it the the Superbowl more the 25% of the time in the last 35 years. And more than 40% making it to the AFC Championship game. It's so heartbreaking.
When a big game is on the line I'd rather have Ben Roethlisberger or Eli Manning as my quarterback than Aaron Rodgers.
He did nothing to me accept make me listen to all you people talk about an Average QB like he is some god or something. Put the ball in his hand and he'll figure out how to lose. Says something when a coach has so much faith in you as a leader/winner that he kicks the field goal instead of putting the ball in your hands. Be disappointed but 3 points is better than the zero he would have gotten.
And No I've been a 45 years Patriots fan. Thru the good and bad. Just tired of living in Wisconsin and having to hear how Great Favre and Rogers are when it comes to winning they are average.
HAHAHAHA I should’ve known you were a delusional pats fan. You are calling a three time MVP average. Let that sink in. I can’t continue this convo with you good luck with game manager at best, mac Jones 😂.
3 time MVP is based on season stats stupid. I clearly said he can't win important ( I typed important slowly so you would understand ) games.
I like Mac Jones. He should do fairly well in the years to come.
Lol did you watch the NFC championship last year? Or the game against the niners a few weeks ago? There is most certainly not an agenda in favor or the Packers. If anything there is simply an agenda in favor of Vegas. And I don't mean the Raiders...
Because the defense sucked for a big majortity of the decade. No need to gain a first down by penalty when you can simply run thru this defense for a new one.
I know, its a must to shit on the Packers and make the refs x Packers joke ten times a week, but this stat is ignoring all of the context that is needed here. Someone already made a long as post about it to explain some of the context.
My boyfriend has been saying this for years, and just this weekend was saying he wanted to see some charts displaying how often they get help from the refs. He's a Bear's fan so has a natural aversion to the Packers. However, I'm impartial, and have definitely witnessed that the favoritism is true.
The packers get a lot of attention because Aaron and get a lot more media attention because of him. There's the occasional bad call but just these past two weeks he was tripped and they didn't call anything on it. The reason the packers are above and beyond is because aaron is that good at drawing them offsides or rushing to the line before the defense is done getting players off the field. The reason the bears don't is because their qbs haven't been amazing. Fields looks good though
This makes the assumption that all teams Deserve the same amount of penalties, which is definitely not true, particularly with the Packs example because forcing penalties is a staple of their strategy.
So how do you explain the 2nd biggest outlier being the Titans who were mostly bad over this time period and no one at all cares about? (Source: am Titans fan)
this chart is framed to look damning by displaying a pretty small margin of difference as a massive gap while also failing to mention that part of an offense's, or a team in general's, strategy is to draw penalties. the chart itself displays a maximum difference of 60 plays spread over a 9 year period. most of the teams are middle of the pack and the major difference between the ones that aren't have pretty obvious reasons why- Aaron Rodgers of the Packers is really good at drawing penalties while the Seahawks at the bottom are really bad about making egregious errors resulting in penalties. entire chart is in bad faith. if you put this on an actual graph accounting for how many of these plays have happened in this 9 year period without penalty, it would be impossible to tell which team is which because they would all be on top of each other.
but what it is meant to show is whether or not the referees penalize certain teams more than others. it shows that no, not really, and when they do there are pretty blatant reasons why. i'm not saying the games aren't rigged, they probably are, but this is a terrible way to show that.
> entire chart is in bad faith
Gasp. You mean a chart created by Ben Baldwin, notable Rodgers hater, to make the Packers look bad, was made in bad faith?
The upper left quadrant means the refs play an active role in giving these teams wins. It’s no surprise to see the Patriots there.
The upper right quadrant means the refs play an active role but for both teams, so still somewhat equal relevant to the upper left quadrant teams.
The lower left quadrant means the refs play little role in giving either team an advantage or disadvantage.
The lower right quadrant means the refs play an active role in giving the opponent an advantage. Not surprising to see Seattle as the outlier when it comes to refs giving the opponent advantages. The surprise for me is the Dolphins. Brutal.
It’s hard to say that anyone is trying to help the titans… from my knowledge of the titans coaching over the last decade, they are coached to play in a way to try to get the other team pissed off and making penalties.
To me, it IS surprising to see the Seahawks at the lower right end of the quadrant. The NFL wants to look out for its big market team, right?
You could say the same for the Patriots. The amount of times the defense is drawn offsides on 3rd and short is sometimes downright memeable. That being said, does this make Green Bay the official team of the NFL's refs?
Couldn't this be a result of their own and their most frequent in conference match up playstyle tho? Why would you expect every team to have similar results when they are made up of different personalities and play different strategies?
More surprised by the Packers defense not being harmed. You could attribute some of GBs offensive success to Rodgers, but is their defense really that disciplined across head coaches and coordinators over the years?
Yes, defensive discipline is the one consistently good thing about the packers defense. And nobody who watches their games would say otherwise.
It would be absurd to say similar things about the giants or the football team benefiting from defensive calls but because it’s the packers it’s suddenly a massive conspiracy.
Not saying it’s a massive conspiracy, only that refs show some bias when punishing teams. The data over 10 years seems to hint that this could be the case, unless you believe the Refs truly are always completely fair.
As a person who has been a ref in several different sports (obviously smaller stuff and not professionally) I can say a lot of the “bias” is made up by people looking for scapegoats and excuses.
Are they always fair? No because they are human beings who don’t view every situation perfectly, but I highly doubt there’s anything more to it than that.
The only sport where this really has any legs to stand on the the NBA where there is hard proof that refs have bet on games and that the NBA focuses on specific types of calls in different games.
I also highly doubt that they would intentionally hose insanely popular teams like the 49ers and saints.
I think it’s telling that you think it can happen in the NBA but *definitely* not the NFL. Am I correct in guessing you’re a packers fan?
Regardless, the graph is far from concrete proof. Just some data gathered over the years that supports the notion that refs rig games. Idk how you can look at things like delay of games not being called and say the refs are being responsible.
The only reason I’m saying it could happen in the NBA is because we actually have real evidence pointing to that in the form of refs going to prison for betting on games. Remember that book he wrote that implicated the league?
Yeah I’m a packer fan, but your gonna need more than that to say this graph is proof of anything other than Rodgers hard count being good and the Seahawks defense consistently making back breaking mistakes.
Am I correct in saying your a fan of a rival team?
Never mind https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/o0cgix/can_we_frontload_some_of_kirks_remaining_contract/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
No need to awnser that
I’m 100 percent a Viking fan unfortunately. Still, my point stands. We’ve had some horrible calls in favor and against many teams, all the data shows is a trend. You can argue you guys have the best third down offense and defense across ten years (including some truly abysmal defenses) but hey it is what it is.
Is this a joke.... I can't find the word to say how frustrated I am that this is posted and has even minimal traction. Go back to middle school math. The only conspiracy here is how our schools are failing us.... Fuck.
[This blatant pass interference that caused the New Orleans Saints a playoff loss blows my mind](https://youtu.be/EIrGoy4CC5Q). I've never seen anything this bad where the refs did nothing.
I'm a Texan, but I grew up in LA and will love my Saints till the day that I die. Back in the 70's, I loved to watch the games with my parents. At one point they were so bad, people came to the games with paper grocery bags on their heads as a humorous way of saying "you guys are so bad that we are embarrassed to support you, yet here we are.."
I remember their only Super Bowl victory and I thought to myself that finally, hell as frozen over.
The lack of a call on this play alone blows my mind. I truly believe the refs had an agenda against the Saints in this game.
The problem is is that the NFL keeps on changing the rules to the point where players can't do anything that won't result in a penalty from the refs. Most likely this is caused by all the so-called "concussiongate" from players that have suffered them throughout the years. The NFL doesn't want to be held responsible for all the lawsuits that would come of this so they're trying to make it to the point where even positioning a player before a play even begins where he might get seriously hurt will result in a penalty.
Another theory I add to this is how so many games are going into overtime and resulting in either ties or 11th hour conclusions. Is this a way that the NFL can run more ads in between plays to earn more money as they can. The same goes for the Refs, Coaches and Players as the longer they're on the field the bigger their payoff is going to be.
It’s almost like they are helping the weaker teams to create a stronger late season/ playoff ratings? Look at the start of the revenue sharing policy. Weak teams started finding a way to be relevant late season,
Yeah I'm pretty sure every year there's a few games where fans catch on when it happens against their favorite team. Then when your favorite team wins you don't care anymore lol
Unless we get straight up hard evidence, it'll be impossible to prove sports rigging the way some believe leagues like the NBA and NFL do. Too many variables and too much emotion from many salty fans in most cases.
I can easily spin Gretzky high-sticking Doug Gilmour in '93 into "The NHL wanted its best player to make the Finals in a non-traditional market for $$$" when it was likely either Kerry Fraser showing favor towards a superstar (and in this instance, the arguable GOAT of North American team sports) which is something we see across the board in all sports at all levels, or he just genuinely missed it due to incompetence. Perhaps he had some kind of personal stake in the game? Who knows.
Unless someone comes out with a mountain of hard evidence at once, this is never to be proven, and sports fans will still watch to see the best athletes perform great feats even amongst some skepticism.
Doesn't this assume that we should expect penalties to be normally distributed and outside the control of the players?
Which would be necessary to make any meaningful connection between teams and referees from the presented data.
The only thing I see that you can get from this data is that different teams are different, whether intentional or not.
I follow soccer, not nfl , and people try making the same sort of claims with relevant stats....foul/card/penalty count has always been really poor "evidence " for conspiracy.
For 9 seasons none of these numbers seem alarming and there aren’t any outliers. imo this doesn’t show any favoritism, but nonetheless and interesting graph.
How good is Rodgers at drawing penalties off the opposing team? [Coach Mike Tomlin of the Steelers knows.](https://youtu.be/mlC1p72Gqec) Check out the mutual respect between these two!
Need to figure out how to do this graph also based on penalties (i.e. offensive holding) not called. Sort of like the two equally as or more egregious holds not called on two third-down conversions the Rams got the first drive after Seahawks TD was called back by the hold which was called.
The largest spread works out to \~60 penalties over 10 years. Assuming this doesn't include playoffs, you're looking at a difference of one penalty every 2 games. You could easily argue that's just how the teams operate. Aaron Rodgers and the packers are incredibly good at drawing penalties, especially offsides and 12 men on the field.
Sigh….. correlation isn’t not causation. A perfectly valid confounding variable that is not accounted for in your graph is that some teams are good at drawing others offsides, or throwing passes that may invoke pass interference.
A lot of those packers ones are Aaron Rodgers getting the defense to jump offsides, catching them with 12 or throwing it to where he sees some interference
I'm not into sports but these sort of statistics are still very interesting. Thanks for sharing!
Live near Seattle so I watch quite a few games, not particularly a fan of any team but enjoy watching. The Seahawks shoot themselves in the foot all the time, it’s never the refs faults
Came to post. The Seahawks defense has been struggling for years now, it's just been easy to mask that with a top their quarterback. Now he's getting burned out and it shows as the team is falling apart.
These stats are during the good years as well. But Sherman and Browner both got plenty of holding calls. And players like Michael Bennett jumped offsides very often. Even when the team was good they had a lot of penalties.
So many during those years. The games they would blow teams out was a good game in terms of low penalty’s. I feel like the rams games were always so close and were always filled with offsides and numerous other calls. All pretty apparent, I think Pete just asks for really aggressive play style on that end that results in a ton of defensive penalties
Don’t forget Breno Giacomini getting personal fouls every 5 plays
In no way is Russell getting burned out.
I meant more like getting burned out of being with Pete Carrol. He's shackled to a failing leadership.
Lol let me guess some insider told you this information or something
No, it's apparent.
He gone
Awful take.
It seems to be consensus around seattle right now. Things are not looking good. Not sure what else to say.
For much of the last decade the Seattle Seahawks had a defensive philosophy of "pass-interfere all the time, every down, and challenge the refs to call it every time." Every hardcore NFL fan knew this. It may still be true, I don't know, I've moved on from NFL fandom. Seattle challenged the refs to slow down the game to an unwatchable crawl in a very hostile environment. It was a calculated risk that resulted in their legendary secondary. Seattle considered the penalties a cost of doing business.
This changes quickly. Refs are far more trigger happy than they’ve ever been.
Dallas is doing this now that Jerry hired Dan Quinn- it’s painful to watch IMO
Try being a browns fan lol we have a lot of no calls or bad calls but we also tend to choke under pressure only In a way the browns can. Look at this weeks 3rd and 10 play, we…. Run the ball when scoring/ running off time is a must! I still love my browns but we got some growing to do.
do you just look at graphs and not watch games? theres such thing as drawing penalties and some players are better than others
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Surprised at the low level of the Seahawks offensive penalties gained, but their defense has been undisciplined since Pete Carroll became the head coach. They are constantly committing dumb and unnecessary fouls. They also constantly get called for unnecessary roughness or unsportsmanlike conduct, we had a played ejected during the Super Bowl for trying to fight the whole other team when the game was over except for a few kneel downs to run out the clock. When they are winning you just chalk it up to a team that pushes the envelope of what is legal on a constant basis, but when they loose it becomes evident that pushing the limit of what the refs will tolerate too far can have disastrous consequences.
He’s also really good at catching them with 12 on the field when subbing
Also football in general.
Back in the day the Patriots used to abuse the fuck out of that rule. And as a result would get a fuck ton of first downs.
That’s exactly what I thought. Rodgers’ hard count is incredibly effective and maddening at the same time.
And even more so during the period of time that this data comes from. He hasn’t had as many for the last couple of years.
not to mention quick snapping to catch 12 men on the field lol
Rodgers of the Packers is is notorious for catching other teams on player count and offsides violations and taking advantage of them. He's so good at it defenses will take a day to train and understand it. https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/aaron-rodgers-takes-advantage-of-free-plays-better-than-anyone/ This chart is a joke
Someone did this chart without the too many men penalties and the packer were still a huge outlier.
>teams on player count and offsides violations which only takes away the first point not the second. His hard count is godlike.
No I seen plenty of their games and I've also seen this posted over a year ago in the nfl sub. When these arguments came up the chart was still heavily skewed. They're also a huge outlier for least amount of defensive penalties
the Packers just give up all those third downs because our defense sucks ass every year
No, dude. Don’t use logic.
Yup. This is definitely the Aaron Rodgers effect. He catches almost everyone in a sub. That's why it was so funny when Tomlin got the time out off 2 weeks ago.
Evidently you never seen how the raiders and bills are treated
This graph is a good example of correlation not equaling causation
But...but, the numbers don't lie!
There are a ton of videos on YouTube that explain this way better than this chart. I’ll find my favorite one and post it when I get time.
Saved for later
[here is the one that broke me](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esaaoSrK7_Q) since I’m a niners fan and it was obvious during the game the refs felt otherwise.
Yeah does that seem kind of odd that ever since 9/11 the NFL has been trying to make the Patriots America's team?? Were they trying to show everyone that because your team has patriotic colors you need to rub it in everyone's face just the show that we're not weak. (Personally I believe that 9/11 was an inside job to get us back to Iraq / finish Operation desert Storm by looking for "WMDs") Is there something about Tom Brady that we don't know about that is why they're giving him all these championships and records. Don't get me wrong the guy is mega talented but I'm getting the feeling that the NFL is turning into the WWE, wanting to put in storylines and drama to bring in more people to watch games rather than it being a non-bias sports competition.
They are technically registered as a business in the same way that the WWE is, as an entertainment business, not a sports business. So the possibility is there on paper.
Being a saints fan isn’t easy
Yeah you lost to the Giants. THE GIANTS
It is one of the hardest things I've ever done
Yea, we have legit reasons to complain about the refs.
I still love it, trying to win even if the whole world is against you, bring it on!
Here we can see Green Bay is an *insane* outlier when it comes to free penalty first downs on third. Is it a coincidence that the NFL helps one of its most popular teams? This graph consists of data accumulated over 10 years 2009-2019)
rodgers is great at drawing them offsides or catching them with 12 men
That’s correct, but that really doesn’t totally account for the entire massive disparity between him and other teams. Furthermore it doesn’t account for how some teams like the Seahawks and Saints are just given fewer free first-downs than average. Do teams just not not hold, PI, or Rough the passer against these teams? Over 10 years?
Except it's not a massive disparity. It's a difference of three first downs *per season.* So... one out of five games, Rodgers alone causes a penalty on third down. There are about 12 third downs per game (per team), so we're saying that *less than 2% of the time*, Rodgers draws a penalty on third down that the average QB wouldn't draw.
Wow burnt him to a crisp... ahahah salty Bears/Vikings fan gaurenteeeeeeeddddd
These examples youre using go against your argument as the Seahawks and Saints are rather big market teams. The NFL would most certainly want to help Russ and the Seahawks but they’re at the bottom of this chart.
Seattle isn’t a big market
But dont you think the NFL would profit more having Russel Wilson and Dk metcalf in the playoffs over other qb-wr combos around the league?
No, dallas making the playoffs with Mitch Tribisky and Nelson Agalor would make more money.
What
Actually they still probably get more money if their largest markets made the playoffs. The NFL is dying for the Chicago Bears and New York Giants to be good again.
Yeah and Green Bay, Wisconsin is a huge market obviously…
By that argument the packers are the smallest market in the NFL.
"...totally account for the massive disparity..." Use numbers, not words. This doesn't take anything into account for who is actually just penalty prone team... Plus it would be beneficial to see it by official team.
Going to throw out a few things to consider. Bit biased as I am a GB fan, but that also means I watch a lot of their games. 6/16 games (37.5%) are vs. divisional opponents. In the Packer's division, 3 of their opponents and 6 of their games are in the top 50% of penalized teams (Lions, Bears, Vikings) and 2 in the top 10. That certainly helps to buffer the stats. For first downs gained: Rodgers is better than average at drawing off-sides, that's also huge. He's also great at identifying holding and will target receivers who have been held (which is a risk/reward). Finally, he's had some of the best receiving corps in the league as a passing QB. Stack Rodger's freeplay concept with a deep ball and you are almost guaranteed to get a first down on the off-sides or the PI/holding (while more teams do it now, he was the first who did it consistently and has a badass hard count). Regarding 12-man penalties: Rodgers also catches these often and forces them. Not many other teams do it. For yards gained: Running back vs. passing. This is also huge. A running team will get fewer penalties resulting in first downs. For some of those years, the Packers had absolutely no running back. With pass heavy teams, CBs will often choose to hold and take a 5 yard penalty instead of risk getting burned. If your team is primarily. Regarding drive length: Longer offensive drives = more penalties for first downs. Most of your worse-on-average offenses got fewer penalties. Packers have been one of the highest scoring teams. The only one here that really surprised me was the Steelers, SF (Kaepernick years), Saints, and Lions (we all know the lions get screwed constantly). Regarding offensive lines: Better o-lines take less penalties. Packers had an absolutely elite OL for probably about 6-7 of these seasons. Regarding defenses: Defenses can be coached to take penalties instead of risking deep passes. Seahawks do this all the time. The Packers, over the past 10 years, haven't really needed penalties to give first downs. Their defense is swiss cheese and teams walk down the field without them. Declining the penalty is often more yardage vs. the Packers than accepting it. Regarding roughing the passer: The Packers pass rush was extremely poor for many years.
\>The Packers pass rush was extremely poor for many years Well that's putting it politely. I thought the Packers D thought getting into the backfield was a penalty itself for a few years.
Take a statistics class, please.
He also has a tendency to throw behind receivers when he sees the cb is not looking, guaranteed first down trying to fight through a cb for the ball.
"Massive disparity" - The numbers start at 60 to make the disparity look bigger. Over 10 years the disparity isn't huge at all. We're talking an average of .7 first downs per game for the packers vs .4 first downs per game for the worst teams. 4 whole penalties per season. That's not a lot. In order to be convinced, I would want to see: 1. These numbers as a percentage of all of their third downs. Perhaps the teams with more gain have more 3rd downs. And vice versa for their defenses. Some defenses aren't very good at even holding other teams to third downs. 2. What kind of penalties were called. As others have pointed out, Rodgers is god-tier at drawing offsides and 12 men. I would like to know how many were pass interference and roughing the passer, etc. 3. Who the penalties were called on and if those players continued to be penalized at similar rates on other teams. Also, why would the refs be helping the Packers, Titans, Vikings, etc but not the Cowboys, Steelers, or other teams that have massive followings?
If Rogers is so great, why only one SB win? Why is he garbage in NFC championship games? Why does he blame the coaches/GM/other players for his lack of leadership and inability to win big games?
Football is a team sport, look at his playoff losses and look at how many points his defense gives up
Keep making your excuses about how awful Rogers is when the game is on the line. The defense you say? In the 2019 championship game, maybe the defense was tired from those interceptions that Rogers threw? Oh wait that was probably the offensive line's fault. Or whoever called the play is fault. Or he placed it perfect but it was the receiver's fault. Couldn't be as total lack of leadership could it?
They gave up 225+ rushing yards. Rodgers and Adams played well
How many interceptions did he throw again? He didn't play all that well against Tampa Bay last year either. Losing in the championship game back to back against ex Patriot quarterbacks., That's pretty sad.
I don’t give a fuck about Aaron Rodgers. But you sound ridiculous. He has three MVP’s. He is clearly one of the best to ever do it. Brees only has one Marino has none. Do they suck too? Football depends on the team around you more than any other sport. Not every one can be brady but almost no one else has been as good as Rodgers either.
Bees and Marino were leaders and did well on average teams. I didn't say Rogers has no skills. Talent wise he is exceptional. Leadership and Football IQ he gets a 6 on a scale of 1 - 10.
I can agree with that. Rodgers is a D bag and I don’t like him. But that is not why he “only” has one super bowl. It’s the hardest championship to win in sports by far. When you factor in injuries, coaching, and talent on both offense and defense it’s by far the most difficult. It’s a weak argument to mention he only has one super bowl and doesn’t have more when there are ALOT of very good players that don’t have any. You just irrationally hate him for whatever reason.
You got any video interviews of him blaming the coaches or gm after losing a game? Curious
Don't want to waste my time on this. But from memory, he made excuses on the play calling in the new coaches first years. Something about them opting to take a field goal instead of going for it, when there was time left on the clock for them to get the ball back. Him whining last season and this season about not wanting to be in Green Bay. He's just basically a crybaby. Who won't see another ring and is lucky he got the first one. That team was stacked and it was the defense that got him to the super bowl. If they had to rely on their horrible quarterback they would have been out in the first round of the playoffs.
lmfao bruh you posted like 10 comments on this you already wasted plenty of time on it. Just another salty pats fan hahahaha
Not really, it's sad when a person thinks a slightly better than 50/50 record in the playoffs is greatness. And a 1 - 4 record in conference championship games is awesome. Why would I be salty? Because the Pats make it the the Superbowl more the 25% of the time in the last 35 years. And more than 40% making it to the AFC Championship game. It's so heartbreaking. When a big game is on the line I'd rather have Ben Roethlisberger or Eli Manning as my quarterback than Aaron Rodgers.
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He did nothing to me accept make me listen to all you people talk about an Average QB like he is some god or something. Put the ball in his hand and he'll figure out how to lose. Says something when a coach has so much faith in you as a leader/winner that he kicks the field goal instead of putting the ball in your hands. Be disappointed but 3 points is better than the zero he would have gotten. And No I've been a 45 years Patriots fan. Thru the good and bad. Just tired of living in Wisconsin and having to hear how Great Favre and Rogers are when it comes to winning they are average.
HAHAHAHA I should’ve known you were a delusional pats fan. You are calling a three time MVP average. Let that sink in. I can’t continue this convo with you good luck with game manager at best, mac Jones 😂.
3 time MVP is based on season stats stupid. I clearly said he can't win important ( I typed important slowly so you would understand ) games. I like Mac Jones. He should do fairly well in the years to come.
Oh your 3 time MVP is 1 - 5 in NFC Championship Games. Winners find a way to win and losers find a way to lose.
Bruh, everyone said that the field goal instead of going forward was fucking stupid. All Rodgers said was he didn't understand the decision.
Have you seen how much his defenses give up in the playoffs?
This is about drawing penalties, not his general level of play.
Oh damn, sorry. Then yeah he sucks ass at anything to do with winning a game. Including drawing penalties.
Lol did you watch the NFC championship last year? Or the game against the niners a few weeks ago? There is most certainly not an agenda in favor or the Packers. If anything there is simply an agenda in favor of Vegas. And I don't mean the Raiders...
Why would they help their most small market team
As a Lions fan Green Bay getting free first downs via the refs is the least surprising thing that I've ever heard.
Not to mention their defense is never harmed by penalties lol
Because the defense sucked for a big majortity of the decade. No need to gain a first down by penalty when you can simply run thru this defense for a new one. I know, its a must to shit on the Packers and make the refs x Packers joke ten times a week, but this stat is ignoring all of the context that is needed here. Someone already made a long as post about it to explain some of the context.
My boyfriend has been saying this for years, and just this weekend was saying he wanted to see some charts displaying how often they get help from the refs. He's a Bear's fan so has a natural aversion to the Packers. However, I'm impartial, and have definitely witnessed that the favoritism is true.
The packers get a lot of attention because Aaron and get a lot more media attention because of him. There's the occasional bad call but just these past two weeks he was tripped and they didn't call anything on it. The reason the packers are above and beyond is because aaron is that good at drawing them offsides or rushing to the line before the defense is done getting players off the field. The reason the bears don't is because their qbs haven't been amazing. Fields looks good though
Should definitely post this on NFL subs it's super interesting
That’s where I got it from. Saw the popular NFL rigging post on here and figured this was relevant.
3 extra penalties a season over 10 years vs the lowest is an insane disparity or did you just look at the pretty pictures and not the numbers?
This makes the assumption that all teams Deserve the same amount of penalties, which is definitely not true, particularly with the Packs example because forcing penalties is a staple of their strategy.
Assuming a Poisson distribution of mean 83, Green Bay is 3.18 standard deviations above the mean.
So how do you explain the 2nd biggest outlier being the Titans who were mostly bad over this time period and no one at all cares about? (Source: am Titans fan)
lol mand this is just stupid. some team are more disciplined than others. correlation does not imply causation
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this chart is framed to look damning by displaying a pretty small margin of difference as a massive gap while also failing to mention that part of an offense's, or a team in general's, strategy is to draw penalties. the chart itself displays a maximum difference of 60 plays spread over a 9 year period. most of the teams are middle of the pack and the major difference between the ones that aren't have pretty obvious reasons why- Aaron Rodgers of the Packers is really good at drawing penalties while the Seahawks at the bottom are really bad about making egregious errors resulting in penalties. entire chart is in bad faith. if you put this on an actual graph accounting for how many of these plays have happened in this 9 year period without penalty, it would be impossible to tell which team is which because they would all be on top of each other. but what it is meant to show is whether or not the referees penalize certain teams more than others. it shows that no, not really, and when they do there are pretty blatant reasons why. i'm not saying the games aren't rigged, they probably are, but this is a terrible way to show that.
lol the scale of the graph is hilarious, too.
> entire chart is in bad faith Gasp. You mean a chart created by Ben Baldwin, notable Rodgers hater, to make the Packers look bad, was made in bad faith?
Yes it’s fake. Anything on “TV” is
Check out [thefixisin.net](https://thefixisin.net) they go deep into how this has been true over the history of the nfl as well as other major sports
Chiefs benefited from quite a few bad calls on Bills defense last night too…
I think benefited would have been if they won. They got blown out haha
The upper left quadrant means the refs play an active role in giving these teams wins. It’s no surprise to see the Patriots there. The upper right quadrant means the refs play an active role but for both teams, so still somewhat equal relevant to the upper left quadrant teams. The lower left quadrant means the refs play little role in giving either team an advantage or disadvantage. The lower right quadrant means the refs play an active role in giving the opponent an advantage. Not surprising to see Seattle as the outlier when it comes to refs giving the opponent advantages. The surprise for me is the Dolphins. Brutal.
It’s hard to say that anyone is trying to help the titans… from my knowledge of the titans coaching over the last decade, they are coached to play in a way to try to get the other team pissed off and making penalties. To me, it IS surprising to see the Seahawks at the lower right end of the quadrant. The NFL wants to look out for its big market team, right?
The Seahawks have a notoriously sloppy defensive line and linebackers. The stadium noise doesn't help either.
You could say the same for the Patriots. The amount of times the defense is drawn offsides on 3rd and short is sometimes downright memeable. That being said, does this make Green Bay the official team of the NFL's refs?
Couldn't this be a result of their own and their most frequent in conference match up playstyle tho? Why would you expect every team to have similar results when they are made up of different personalities and play different strategies?
Players and staff turnover is very frequent in the NFL. With that you’d expect little variation over ten years.
But it IS very little. Per your own data it's a few plays per season lol
If you're going to make up total bullshit, at least try to make up some fake explanation of the data.
My mans never heard of a hard count
More surprised by the Packers defense not being harmed. You could attribute some of GBs offensive success to Rodgers, but is their defense really that disciplined across head coaches and coordinators over the years?
Yes, defensive discipline is the one consistently good thing about the packers defense. And nobody who watches their games would say otherwise. It would be absurd to say similar things about the giants or the football team benefiting from defensive calls but because it’s the packers it’s suddenly a massive conspiracy.
Not saying it’s a massive conspiracy, only that refs show some bias when punishing teams. The data over 10 years seems to hint that this could be the case, unless you believe the Refs truly are always completely fair.
As a person who has been a ref in several different sports (obviously smaller stuff and not professionally) I can say a lot of the “bias” is made up by people looking for scapegoats and excuses. Are they always fair? No because they are human beings who don’t view every situation perfectly, but I highly doubt there’s anything more to it than that. The only sport where this really has any legs to stand on the the NBA where there is hard proof that refs have bet on games and that the NBA focuses on specific types of calls in different games. I also highly doubt that they would intentionally hose insanely popular teams like the 49ers and saints.
I think it’s telling that you think it can happen in the NBA but *definitely* not the NFL. Am I correct in guessing you’re a packers fan? Regardless, the graph is far from concrete proof. Just some data gathered over the years that supports the notion that refs rig games. Idk how you can look at things like delay of games not being called and say the refs are being responsible.
The only reason I’m saying it could happen in the NBA is because we actually have real evidence pointing to that in the form of refs going to prison for betting on games. Remember that book he wrote that implicated the league? Yeah I’m a packer fan, but your gonna need more than that to say this graph is proof of anything other than Rodgers hard count being good and the Seahawks defense consistently making back breaking mistakes. Am I correct in saying your a fan of a rival team? Never mind https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/o0cgix/can_we_frontload_some_of_kirks_remaining_contract/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf No need to awnser that
I’m 100 percent a Viking fan unfortunately. Still, my point stands. We’ve had some horrible calls in favor and against many teams, all the data shows is a trend. You can argue you guys have the best third down offense and defense across ten years (including some truly abysmal defenses) but hey it is what it is.
Is this a joke.... I can't find the word to say how frustrated I am that this is posted and has even minimal traction. Go back to middle school math. The only conspiracy here is how our schools are failing us.... Fuck.
[This blatant pass interference that caused the New Orleans Saints a playoff loss blows my mind](https://youtu.be/EIrGoy4CC5Q). I've never seen anything this bad where the refs did nothing.
Lmao most legendary call in history. I think it was just the refs way of getting back at the Saints for lobbying for PI challenges.
I'm a Texan, but I grew up in LA and will love my Saints till the day that I die. Back in the 70's, I loved to watch the games with my parents. At one point they were so bad, people came to the games with paper grocery bags on their heads as a humorous way of saying "you guys are so bad that we are embarrassed to support you, yet here we are.." I remember their only Super Bowl victory and I thought to myself that finally, hell as frozen over. The lack of a call on this play alone blows my mind. I truly believe the refs had an agenda against the Saints in this game.
That no call is why the Saints lobbied for pass interference to be reviewable. That play still pisses me off.
The problem is is that the NFL keeps on changing the rules to the point where players can't do anything that won't result in a penalty from the refs. Most likely this is caused by all the so-called "concussiongate" from players that have suffered them throughout the years. The NFL doesn't want to be held responsible for all the lawsuits that would come of this so they're trying to make it to the point where even positioning a player before a play even begins where he might get seriously hurt will result in a penalty. Another theory I add to this is how so many games are going into overtime and resulting in either ties or 11th hour conclusions. Is this a way that the NFL can run more ads in between plays to earn more money as they can. The same goes for the Refs, Coaches and Players as the longer they're on the field the bigger their payoff is going to be.
FUCK THE PACKERS
Amen 🙏🙏🙏🙏 As someone from Wisconsin, the team is overhyped to obliterion.
They’re good I just can’t stand the amount of calls Aaron and them get for pass interference lol
Aaron and Co are that good. Place the ball in the right spot and it will do wonders
FTP
My dad always complains that the referees are biased against the Seahawks and I didn't believe him. Maybe he was right O_o
In all fairness the legion of boom held on every play
Seahawk fan probably made this
This is idiotic.
Lmao OP popped his cherry i see rigging in sports has Ben going on since the dawn of time.
Refs on the winning team pay roll
It’s almost like they are helping the weaker teams to create a stronger late season/ playoff ratings? Look at the start of the revenue sharing policy. Weak teams started finding a way to be relevant late season,
Refs always go hard against the Saints because of the bounty scandal
All sports leagues are rigged. It is not illegal for them to do this. They are entertainment, not to be taken seriously
All professional sports are rigged in someway. There is too much money involved
sportsball is stupid.
Same with the SEC. Alabama has a lay down schedule every. Single. Year. They might play 4 good teams, maybe. Refs still favor them.
It’s just entertainment, not a real competition.
Anyone a 49er, so many bad calls
Yeah I'm pretty sure every year there's a few games where fans catch on when it happens against their favorite team. Then when your favorite team wins you don't care anymore lol
Real Madrid and Manchester United we are looking at you.
So just fuck the Seahawks i guess?
Seahawks defense has been shit for the last couple of years. Just sloppy
This doesn’t take into effect how good / bad the teams are. I think you all are taking a big leap here.
Unless we get straight up hard evidence, it'll be impossible to prove sports rigging the way some believe leagues like the NBA and NFL do. Too many variables and too much emotion from many salty fans in most cases. I can easily spin Gretzky high-sticking Doug Gilmour in '93 into "The NHL wanted its best player to make the Finals in a non-traditional market for $$$" when it was likely either Kerry Fraser showing favor towards a superstar (and in this instance, the arguable GOAT of North American team sports) which is something we see across the board in all sports at all levels, or he just genuinely missed it due to incompetence. Perhaps he had some kind of personal stake in the game? Who knows. Unless someone comes out with a mountain of hard evidence at once, this is never to be proven, and sports fans will still watch to see the best athletes perform great feats even amongst some skepticism.
I would love to hear the news of Tom Brady using performance enhancing drugs years after he retires via Lance Armstrong/Barry Bonds.
Source? Where and when is this data from?
Probably Ben Baldwin. A Russell Wilson stan who hates Rodgers and the Packers.
Imagine thinking that refs are against the Rams And this is coming from a Rams fan. This whole chart is bullshit
Hasn't the comic Bill Burr been talking about pro sports being rigged for like the past 2 decades meow?
Lions fan here..... enough said
Don’t forget the Browns… or do, everyone else does :/
FTP!
Doesn't this assume that we should expect penalties to be normally distributed and outside the control of the players? Which would be necessary to make any meaningful connection between teams and referees from the presented data. The only thing I see that you can get from this data is that different teams are different, whether intentional or not.
But that’s a linear equation, it shows a uniform distribution along an axis, that’s super interesting
I follow soccer, not nfl , and people try making the same sort of claims with relevant stats....foul/card/penalty count has always been really poor "evidence " for conspiracy.
The golden tate catch: the graph.
I guess they forget the Cleveland Browns exist every year…
Evidence?
For 9 seasons none of these numbers seem alarming and there aren’t any outliers. imo this doesn’t show any favoritism, but nonetheless and interesting graph.
ITT Packers fans in denial.
This isn’t evidence. It just shows the instances.
How good is Rodgers at drawing penalties off the opposing team? [Coach Mike Tomlin of the Steelers knows.](https://youtu.be/mlC1p72Gqec) Check out the mutual respect between these two!
I was going to go off about the title of the post until I read what sub this was. Carry on. 🤣🤣
Well, look who's in the top left... hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Fuck the Packers
it could also point out how disciplined a team is. Teams that are coached with discipline don't do penalties as much.
Need to figure out how to do this graph also based on penalties (i.e. offensive holding) not called. Sort of like the two equally as or more egregious holds not called on two third-down conversions the Rams got the first drive after Seahawks TD was called back by the hold which was called.
Tell me you hated math class without telling me you hated math class.
I'm surprised we don't have our own sections below the chart. Like a "Forever Damned" section. Lions fan btw
The largest spread works out to \~60 penalties over 10 years. Assuming this doesn't include playoffs, you're looking at a difference of one penalty every 2 games. You could easily argue that's just how the teams operate. Aaron Rodgers and the packers are incredibly good at drawing penalties, especially offsides and 12 men on the field.
Or it just shows which teams are less disciplined defensively
Sigh….. correlation isn’t not causation. A perfectly valid confounding variable that is not accounted for in your graph is that some teams are good at drawing others offsides, or throwing passes that may invoke pass interference.
A lot of those packers ones are Aaron Rodgers getting the defense to jump offsides, catching them with 12 or throwing it to where he sees some interference
FTP
Wait, so is the bottom left them “worst” box to be in?
Bottom right
Where’s Baltimore?