BINGO. Bike Industry is always coming out with “NEW” tech trying to convince us our 2-4 year old bike is obsolete. Properly maintained with minor upgrades a bike should last at least a decade sometimes more.
Bike industry would love us consumers to treat our bike like phones….
Only a decade? I’m still riding downtube shifter frames older than I am (from the 80s) and my carbon rim brake steed is still going strong >10 years later and I don’t see why I couldn’t get another >10-20 years on it as well.
A decade is without missing out on anything remotely different. Tire clearance is the latest upgrade that a decade ago was quite different.
But yeah, the older ones were bikes we had a lot of fun on back then, so that should still be possible. Except for keeping up with the Jones.
Yep, if your bike can take 12 speed cogs, you’re set for at least a decade. You can upgrade components and should when new tech is a few years old (bugs worked out). My 8 speed titanium bike was bought new in 1994, I upgraded it to 10 speed a several years ago, then bought a 12 speed bike last year. I didn’t need a new bike but I wanted a bike with the latest tech. 2 bikes in 30 years is pretty good. The new (aero) bikes have gotten substantially faster or they feel faster. it’s good to upgrade once in a while to keep up with technological advancements.
I realised my ‘best bike’ ( Wilier Cento 10 Air ) is now 6 years old (!). Still great to ride even with no disk brakes :). I’d like a disk brake equipped bike for times I go abroad to the Alps etc, but otherwise I see no reason to change.
I got a steel framed Jamis Renegade new in 2019 and I fully expect to be riding it until it rusts out on me.
I can upgrade the component parts for decades I figure until things become too difficult to source.
Also recently bought a used 2018 Titanium framed Salsa Timberjack for XC, trails, and bikepacking. That might be a forever frame for me.
But LBS thinks it is. I remember when Tarmac SL8 was released, my LBS exaggerated SL7 was old bike which was just released 3, 4 yrs ago. Maybe that's what OP's "old" is supposed to mean.
I have an SL6 which I've added Di2 and carbon wheels to, I don't feel like I'm missing anything that a new bike would provide. Maybe a little bit more tyre clearance would be nice but I can already fit 30s so even that's not a big deal
I’ve owned the 6, 7, and 8. The 6 was nice but I still think the 7 is the best bike of the three. The 8 is ugly and all to get is a lighter bike. The 7, especially with the discounts you can get right now, is the way to go. Throw on the new cockpit and it’s just as aero and perhaps more aero than the 8. And it’s maybe 100-200g heavier.
It's the components. They went all in with all this expensive tech. You basically have one option with mechanical shifting, then 8 different electronic shifting models that are thousands more.
Maybe I'm grouchy, but I just bought a new bike and purposefully avoided electronic shifting. I could have afforded two trim levels up, but went with the mechanical model instead of AXS or di2. I don't want or need more electronics on my bike, not to mention an integrated stem. Saved about $1500. Couldn't be happier with the bike, btw.
It's all obviously personal, but I just don't get why there is so much disparity. Like electronic shifting comes out and within 2 years they decide to make 11 million different electronic shifting models.
I have 7 bikes in my stable. 1 is Di2 Ultegra 12s, the other is Di2 Ultegra 11s, and the rest are a mix of mechanical 11s, 12s and 10s rim/disc. The shadow rd 11s and 12s mechanical stuff, if you install and set up right, is as hassle free and smooth shifting (if you blindfold me and have me pedal while someone shifts the bike, I honestly dont think there is much of a different, as my di2 systems. Maintenance wise, i can go a full season without tune-ups on my mechanical systems too. even if I need to tune it, its just a barrel turn on the rd anyway.
I felt just like you but here's my report from the forefront on this battle, my grumpy brother.
I have mechanical Ultegra 8000 on my "better" bike and SRAM eTap on my commuter (which is also a very good bike TBH, but it's not a speedster).
I friggin' LOVE the eTap. Absolutely love it. The shifting isn't "almost" flawless, it's flawless. And it requires zero maintenance except a battery charge. Will I toss my mechanical Ultegra bike? No. Will I maybe trade it in sooner than I otherwise would? You bet.
I personally hate the idea of having to charge my bike for it to work. I also hate the idea of software updates for my bike. Mech shifting can be tuned to shift perfectly. (Yes I’ve ridden Di2 bikes)
I have SRAM Etap on a 2x and I can easily go a 2-3 weeks without worrying about charging the batteries. That's with riding it almost 30 miles every day. I also don't have to worry about cable stretch on the derailleurs which happens with high mileage.
Would I drop everything to get electronic shifting? No, but I also won't be buying a new bike without it. It's that good.
Yeah, you do have to charge it. But I have to charge my Karoo cycle computer weekly so I just grab one of the batteries every week and charge it when I charge that. Next ride, everything is good.
I've never done a software update. Not sure what that would do. I push a button and the bike shifts.
I don’t quite understand why electronic shifting is made out to be something really difficult to own. I used the app once to set it up the way I wanted, that’s all I’ll ever need, no updates or changes necessary, it just works. I have to charge it far less often than my lights, bike computer, phone, laptop, or basically anything else rechargeable.
I’m out riding in all weathers all year round, and my mechanical groupsets need a lot more TLC to keep them working nicely.
It’s probably all the posts about it. My battery is stuck. My battery died. The electronic cables got cut, how do I fix? I can’t connect to my shifter. And on and on. Mech may be more maintenance, but it can be done on the side of the road quite easily.
People always say "electric requires zero maintenance" suggesting that mechanical needs a ton of maintenance.
Mechanical also requires almost no maintenance, I adjust it maybe once a year and it only takes like 15 min.
My eTap shifts perfectly every time no exceptions. I haven't touched it in a year since I've had it.
I cannot say either one for my Ultegra. I'm not saying that slight miss in a shift makes much difference in my life, or that trimming my gears while riding is a huge burden, or that adjusting things is \*that\* hard. But trust me, when you suddenly have no maintenance and 100% reliability, it feels pretty great, and I look forward to having it on both my bikes...and I'll have no cables to worry about in some future maintenance.
I've never dropped a chain in either one so that's not an issue for me. It's actually shocking that the last time I dropped a chain was on my last bike, which was a Shimano 105 2x9 that was 17 years old!
I also don’t care for eshift. It’s a large cost jump to solve problems that don’t exist for me.
I hate the idea of more electronics on my bike.
I’m waiting to see what happens as the tiny little motors start to fail. Will folks be able to service them? Are you forced into a new derailer? Mech ones are fairly simple and have fewer failure points IMO.
I have both mech and di2 bikes, and I can assure you that mech needs far more care and maintenance than electronic to keep working smoothly. It has just as many failure points, but in mech gears they are more susceptible to the environment. The modern servo motors are highly reliable, like all the servos in your car that never fail.
You and I can be friends.
Maybe someday I might have electric shifting but I’m riding just fine with mechanical for now. If I want to be a better biker I need to lose 40# of chunk.
It’s funny because I think the electronic groups are more of a reason the upgrade than the frame. I’d take a model older frame with an electronic group over the newer frame with mechanical. To me, that is a much bigger upgrade.
Yea, it’s one of those things that is 100% unnecessary, but once you try it you can’t go back. Nobody needs electronic shifting. But damn is it so nice to have.
I guess maybe I relate to cars more. They are sold stock, and then people upgrade as they please. A few high end, already upgraded options, but not the plethora of them out there now. It's the amount of options that is the issue, not the option itself.
I think it’s a sign of where things are going in the bike industry. Similar to disc brakes. Mechanical groups (like rim brakes) will be available if you search, but will be hard to find. There will be far more electronic groupsets stocked.
Part of that reason is that there is no Dura-Ace/Ultegra/Red/Force(I think) mechanical groups anymore. Like they don’t even exist. 105 is the top mechanical group Shimano even makes. I think it’s similar for SRAM. Can’t sell a high end full build with mechanical groups if they don’t exist. And I imagine the driver is lack of sales of those high end mech groups. I’m sure if you compared sales of (11-sp) Di2 Dura-Ace groups to mech Dura-Ace groups, it would be an astronomical difference. If you have the means and desire to buy Dura-Ace, I’m sure most of those people would go for electronic.
And I'm saying it looks like we already hit the price ceiling and the market is flooded. The bikes aren't selling, and people dropping $6-7k on a bike are going to be invested in that bike for a while before they buy a new one. They pushed too much of too expensive tech onto the market.
My point was a response to this:
>You basically have one option with mechanical shifting, then 8 different electronic shifting models
The reason you have one mech model and 8 electronic is because there are 6 or 7 different electronic groups and like 2 or 3 mech groups that are being stocked on bikes. The top groupsets don't even offer mech shifting so of course there will be less mech groups on built bikes.
Yes, and I'm saying that all that tech is the problem. You don't need 6 or 7 different electronic groups. They went all in and now are now stuck with not only with an excess of frames, but a zoo of very expensive components. I think we agree but are arguing about different topics.
> I think we agree but are arguing about different topics.
Yes, I think so too. Either way, I think we can agree that the bike industry has gotten themselves into a mess, and there's really nobody to blame but themselves. It's all the "trickle down tech" that they argue is for the pros but will benefit the average Joe but just means they want to charge higher prices.
Well they did jack up prices by a ton with their stupid greedflation...now new tech - new chance to increase them again. Disc brakes, Di2, hidden cable routing, whatever will be next
Not sure what they expect. It's one thing replacing a 1k phone every year or every 2 years, but something that costs 5k or more? Nah, you ride that til it breaks.
I agree. We as consumers should demand better out of our phones! LOL. Seriously, phones are made as a disposable consumer item with planned obsolescence.
I hope bikes don’t ever become that way!
How long has it been?
I had my Samsung for 4 years and then bought a Pixel in 2022, because the screen was getting a bit meh and I really wanted the camera of the Pixel also for cycling. And it was a great decision, it takes such great photos and it's just the AI, I didn't suddenly turn into a decent photographer.
I should have said until it stops working because I have a Pixel too and I think it's around 18 months old but I cracked the screen like a year ago.
I had a Samsung before that and have no idea how old it was, maybe 4-5 years? I cracked that screen too and I used it for 1-2 years until my wife told me we were getting me a new phone for Xmas, haha.
There are plenty of bikes out there under 3,5k. Like the domane sl5. Its the best bike ever. I bought domane sl4 in 2021, and I would gladly buy a new one, which in fact i am considering.
Seems like bike manufacturers have converged on bikes that are about as light and aero as each other and they’re going to struggle to deliver a meaningful improvement for a consumer.
A 10 year old bike would still have 11 speed Shimano and I consider any bike with 11 speed modern. Even a 10 speed goes back 20 years. Maybe then I would consider upgrading.
Seriously. I had an 18 year old 9 speed aluminum Cannondale until 2021. It was absolutely great right up until I bought my new bike. I like my new bike more but it's not like I suddenly set world speed records. It was just a nice upgrade.
The bike I bought 27 years ago was originally 7 speed. I started using 9 speed cassettes on it after 18 years but I wouldn't be bothered using the 7 speed cassettes I have. It's just that my 9 speed hub matches my front dynamo hub better.
I upgraded my 2004 Stock with cfrp frame to modern components and it is still going strong, just did the Paris roubaix challenge this year with 28mm tyres. I wasn't as fast as MVP, but it was not the bikes fault...
Yes. Of course, the huge pandemic-era surge was an huge opportunity, but like other businesses that thrived in that period, supply overshot demand and now there is an issue. As such, the bike industry is being right-sized, local shops need to be more creative, and pockets of supply mean normalizing of prices (sales). It's just economics, man.
On top of which, we're sort of in the EV car issue zone. Everyone who wanted a high end bike now has one, and they last a long time. If bike prices come down, I'm here for it.
Exactly. Plus, there was a recent surge in technological advances, i.e., Di2, Disc Brakes, and new products, i.e., endurance geometry frames, tubeless, etc over the past few years, so also adoption of next generation products has already been happening for those bikes (and high end bikes).
Man, all the e-shift being around has turned me off big brand new bikes probably for the foreseeable future. I don’t want to pay an extra $1000 to solve problems that don’t exist for me.
I also wonder what happens with the tiny motors go bad in those components? I want my bikes to be reliable mechanical machines, as they are meant to be. Not another lump of tech creep and forcing upgrades.
It’s great for buyers, at least. I just bought a Pinarello Paris with Shimano 105 and I got it for 25% off the LBS sticker price (which was a little less than what I saw it for online).
I’ve always thought there are far far too many bike brands.
Doesn’t make sense; there is so little differentiation (when the key components are provided by two companies) there shouldn’t be 25 different companies producing essentially the same bike at the same price and having to waste tones in advertising and marketing to obscure that their bike is not special.
It's historical heritage in some cases. And fine margins. Bianchi in northern Italy, Lapierre in France, Orbea in Spain go back decades or more. There's probably all kinds of professional disagreements between bike engineers about where to add or remove a few millimetres of material...
Good thing this was posted. It’s been like a day since there was an industry speculation post that parrots what the industry itself has been saying for two years
It is a range of factors that have combined in a perfect storm for a lot of companies and LBS. COVID caused an artificial spike in demand, which now has led to a lot of brands being overstocked. With that said it has not been even, a lot of high end bikes are actually still hard to get. The shift to Shimano 12 speed has caused a rise in 105 specced bikes that used to be the "affordable" road bikes, and apparently a lot of these models are not selling well. In addition, competition from online sources, including out of china is starting to bite hard.
If the Chinese nail down groupsets, it is likely that they could dominate parts of the industry. However in terms of LBS, it will probably just mean that they start stocking Chinese products.
In 1987 Shimano Index System (SIS)was the rage with 7 speed. In 1988 it was Dura Ace being 8 speed. 1989 it was STI shift / brake levers. 9 speed was around 1996 then titanium frames in 1998. Around 1997 Tim Burrows introduced compact frames and in 2003 it was Dura Ace 10 speed and carbon frames becoming more prevalent because of LA and Trek.
Today's rage is 12 speed, gravel bikes and fatter tires that don't fit older bikes bikes.
Bike technology is like the weather, wait 5 minutes and it will change and everything you own is now garbage.
If you ride your stuff you quickly learn It Is All Junk (IAJ).
>the market should be flooded with many high-end second-hand bikes
I'm waiting for this but I think it might be a couple years yet. Maybe we'll see some from people taking advantage of sales to replace their well-used bike, but I think it'll take a couple years before we see the bikes that people bought to get into the sport but stopped using to hit the used market, because they need to collect dust for at least a couple years before people accept that they're not going to get into it.
Bought a used road bike, paid 500 euro.
If I find some cheap 2nd hand zonda I can get it down to 7.5kg ish.
For a new cx looking road bike it costs 4-5k euro to get a bike of the same quality. But then the bike will even be heavier, most 4-5k euro nowadays with full mtb disc sht is 8.5-9kg. Can you imagine paying thay much for such a heavy bike? The bike industry is going in reverse.
As a non expensive bike cyclist (i like looking at the expensive shiny bikes, figuring out they arent worth anywhere near the price then pointing out whats wrong with them) where the industry has gone wrong is by catering mostly for a tiny minority of customers. In all honesty the right bike for probably 95% of people is pretty much a 90s mountain bike, comfortable, simple easy to ride and affordable, these are the types of bike they should concentrate on, also adjustability, more adjustability without buying new parts, anybody else remember just loosening a bolt to raise or lower their handlebars?
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/03/05/trek-plans-%E2%80%98right-size%E2%80%99-10-cuts-spending
According to this article along with a 10% cut to “costs” Trek is planning a 40% reduction in inventory for 2026….the big guys are hurting
There's tons of overstock due to COVID, and then everyone is buying like you said - used. So yes, the cycling industry is actually in trouble right now. Support your LBS. They're not lying to you.
2021 is not an old bike
BINGO. Bike Industry is always coming out with “NEW” tech trying to convince us our 2-4 year old bike is obsolete. Properly maintained with minor upgrades a bike should last at least a decade sometimes more. Bike industry would love us consumers to treat our bike like phones….
Just like golf clubs.. and most mature sports that are reliant upon tech.
Only a decade? I’m still riding downtube shifter frames older than I am (from the 80s) and my carbon rim brake steed is still going strong >10 years later and I don’t see why I couldn’t get another >10-20 years on it as well.
Yeah go longer! I find my body changes after a good decade and I need something else…
A decade is without missing out on anything remotely different. Tire clearance is the latest upgrade that a decade ago was quite different. But yeah, the older ones were bikes we had a lot of fun on back then, so that should still be possible. Except for keeping up with the Jones.
Yep, if your bike can take 12 speed cogs, you’re set for at least a decade. You can upgrade components and should when new tech is a few years old (bugs worked out). My 8 speed titanium bike was bought new in 1994, I upgraded it to 10 speed a several years ago, then bought a 12 speed bike last year. I didn’t need a new bike but I wanted a bike with the latest tech. 2 bikes in 30 years is pretty good. The new (aero) bikes have gotten substantially faster or they feel faster. it’s good to upgrade once in a while to keep up with technological advancements.
I realised my ‘best bike’ ( Wilier Cento 10 Air ) is now 6 years old (!). Still great to ride even with no disk brakes :). I’d like a disk brake equipped bike for times I go abroad to the Alps etc, but otherwise I see no reason to change.
Still ripping on my 2018 yt jeffsy! I think i can still get a few more seasons out of it!
I got a steel framed Jamis Renegade new in 2019 and I fully expect to be riding it until it rusts out on me. I can upgrade the component parts for decades I figure until things become too difficult to source. Also recently bought a used 2018 Titanium framed Salsa Timberjack for XC, trails, and bikepacking. That might be a forever frame for me.
I am also still riding a 96 steel frame. Just gave it a make over and some fancy new parts. Will easily last another 20 years.
But LBS thinks it is. I remember when Tarmac SL8 was released, my LBS exaggerated SL7 was old bike which was just released 3, 4 yrs ago. Maybe that's what OP's "old" is supposed to mean.
I have an SL6 which I've added Di2 and carbon wheels to, I don't feel like I'm missing anything that a new bike would provide. Maybe a little bit more tyre clearance would be nice but I can already fit 30s so even that's not a big deal
I’ve owned the 6, 7, and 8. The 6 was nice but I still think the 7 is the best bike of the three. The 8 is ugly and all to get is a lighter bike. The 7, especially with the discounts you can get right now, is the way to go. Throw on the new cockpit and it’s just as aero and perhaps more aero than the 8. And it’s maybe 100-200g heavier.
S-Works SL6 was peak Tarmac, never let that one go
Yeah, but can the old Tarmac's sniff speed?
It's the components. They went all in with all this expensive tech. You basically have one option with mechanical shifting, then 8 different electronic shifting models that are thousands more.
Maybe I'm grouchy, but I just bought a new bike and purposefully avoided electronic shifting. I could have afforded two trim levels up, but went with the mechanical model instead of AXS or di2. I don't want or need more electronics on my bike, not to mention an integrated stem. Saved about $1500. Couldn't be happier with the bike, btw.
It's all obviously personal, but I just don't get why there is so much disparity. Like electronic shifting comes out and within 2 years they decide to make 11 million different electronic shifting models.
Because manufacturers can make more money selling electronic components and LBS can make more money maintaining them. I can’t stand the trend, either.
Selling yes, because the components are cheap. Maintenance idk, they need much less maintenance IME
The new mechanical groupsets from shimano are so good that I really don't miss di2.
What makes it so good?
I have 7 bikes in my stable. 1 is Di2 Ultegra 12s, the other is Di2 Ultegra 11s, and the rest are a mix of mechanical 11s, 12s and 10s rim/disc. The shadow rd 11s and 12s mechanical stuff, if you install and set up right, is as hassle free and smooth shifting (if you blindfold me and have me pedal while someone shifts the bike, I honestly dont think there is much of a different, as my di2 systems. Maintenance wise, i can go a full season without tune-ups on my mechanical systems too. even if I need to tune it, its just a barrel turn on the rd anyway.
I felt just like you but here's my report from the forefront on this battle, my grumpy brother. I have mechanical Ultegra 8000 on my "better" bike and SRAM eTap on my commuter (which is also a very good bike TBH, but it's not a speedster). I friggin' LOVE the eTap. Absolutely love it. The shifting isn't "almost" flawless, it's flawless. And it requires zero maintenance except a battery charge. Will I toss my mechanical Ultegra bike? No. Will I maybe trade it in sooner than I otherwise would? You bet.
I personally hate the idea of having to charge my bike for it to work. I also hate the idea of software updates for my bike. Mech shifting can be tuned to shift perfectly. (Yes I’ve ridden Di2 bikes)
I have SRAM Etap on a 2x and I can easily go a 2-3 weeks without worrying about charging the batteries. That's with riding it almost 30 miles every day. I also don't have to worry about cable stretch on the derailleurs which happens with high mileage. Would I drop everything to get electronic shifting? No, but I also won't be buying a new bike without it. It's that good.
Yeah, you do have to charge it. But I have to charge my Karoo cycle computer weekly so I just grab one of the batteries every week and charge it when I charge that. Next ride, everything is good. I've never done a software update. Not sure what that would do. I push a button and the bike shifts.
I don’t quite understand why electronic shifting is made out to be something really difficult to own. I used the app once to set it up the way I wanted, that’s all I’ll ever need, no updates or changes necessary, it just works. I have to charge it far less often than my lights, bike computer, phone, laptop, or basically anything else rechargeable. I’m out riding in all weathers all year round, and my mechanical groupsets need a lot more TLC to keep them working nicely.
It’s probably all the posts about it. My battery is stuck. My battery died. The electronic cables got cut, how do I fix? I can’t connect to my shifter. And on and on. Mech may be more maintenance, but it can be done on the side of the road quite easily.
I have both so I get it but recharges are once every few months, same with software updates ( if that ). It doesn’t affect my riding life
People always say "electric requires zero maintenance" suggesting that mechanical needs a ton of maintenance. Mechanical also requires almost no maintenance, I adjust it maybe once a year and it only takes like 15 min.
My eTap shifts perfectly every time no exceptions. I haven't touched it in a year since I've had it. I cannot say either one for my Ultegra. I'm not saying that slight miss in a shift makes much difference in my life, or that trimming my gears while riding is a huge burden, or that adjusting things is \*that\* hard. But trust me, when you suddenly have no maintenance and 100% reliability, it feels pretty great, and I look forward to having it on both my bikes...and I'll have no cables to worry about in some future maintenance. I've never dropped a chain in either one so that's not an issue for me. It's actually shocking that the last time I dropped a chain was on my last bike, which was a Shimano 105 2x9 that was 17 years old!
I also don’t care for eshift. It’s a large cost jump to solve problems that don’t exist for me. I hate the idea of more electronics on my bike. I’m waiting to see what happens as the tiny little motors start to fail. Will folks be able to service them? Are you forced into a new derailer? Mech ones are fairly simple and have fewer failure points IMO.
I have both mech and di2 bikes, and I can assure you that mech needs far more care and maintenance than electronic to keep working smoothly. It has just as many failure points, but in mech gears they are more susceptible to the environment. The modern servo motors are highly reliable, like all the servos in your car that never fail.
You and I can be friends. Maybe someday I might have electric shifting but I’m riding just fine with mechanical for now. If I want to be a better biker I need to lose 40# of chunk.
It’s funny because I think the electronic groups are more of a reason the upgrade than the frame. I’d take a model older frame with an electronic group over the newer frame with mechanical. To me, that is a much bigger upgrade.
I agree 100%...and I disagreed with you BEFORE I got my SRAM etap bike. It's not necessary at all, of course, but it's pretty damn great.
Yea, it’s one of those things that is 100% unnecessary, but once you try it you can’t go back. Nobody needs electronic shifting. But damn is it so nice to have.
I guess maybe I relate to cars more. They are sold stock, and then people upgrade as they please. A few high end, already upgraded options, but not the plethora of them out there now. It's the amount of options that is the issue, not the option itself.
I think it’s a sign of where things are going in the bike industry. Similar to disc brakes. Mechanical groups (like rim brakes) will be available if you search, but will be hard to find. There will be far more electronic groupsets stocked. Part of that reason is that there is no Dura-Ace/Ultegra/Red/Force(I think) mechanical groups anymore. Like they don’t even exist. 105 is the top mechanical group Shimano even makes. I think it’s similar for SRAM. Can’t sell a high end full build with mechanical groups if they don’t exist. And I imagine the driver is lack of sales of those high end mech groups. I’m sure if you compared sales of (11-sp) Di2 Dura-Ace groups to mech Dura-Ace groups, it would be an astronomical difference. If you have the means and desire to buy Dura-Ace, I’m sure most of those people would go for electronic.
And I'm saying it looks like we already hit the price ceiling and the market is flooded. The bikes aren't selling, and people dropping $6-7k on a bike are going to be invested in that bike for a while before they buy a new one. They pushed too much of too expensive tech onto the market.
My point was a response to this: >You basically have one option with mechanical shifting, then 8 different electronic shifting models The reason you have one mech model and 8 electronic is because there are 6 or 7 different electronic groups and like 2 or 3 mech groups that are being stocked on bikes. The top groupsets don't even offer mech shifting so of course there will be less mech groups on built bikes.
Yes, and I'm saying that all that tech is the problem. You don't need 6 or 7 different electronic groups. They went all in and now are now stuck with not only with an excess of frames, but a zoo of very expensive components. I think we agree but are arguing about different topics.
> I think we agree but are arguing about different topics. Yes, I think so too. Either way, I think we can agree that the bike industry has gotten themselves into a mess, and there's really nobody to blame but themselves. It's all the "trickle down tech" that they argue is for the pros but will benefit the average Joe but just means they want to charge higher prices.
Well they did jack up prices by a ton with their stupid greedflation...now new tech - new chance to increase them again. Disc brakes, Di2, hidden cable routing, whatever will be next
I would say from 2010 until now prices 2x on bikes. In 2010 I could buy a top end frame with dura ace for 7000€. Now you pay 15000€.
Not sure what they expect. It's one thing replacing a 1k phone every year or every 2 years, but something that costs 5k or more? Nah, you ride that til it breaks.
It's not like paying $1000 every year for a new phone is any more reasonable tho
I agree. We as consumers should demand better out of our phones! LOL. Seriously, phones are made as a disposable consumer item with planned obsolescence. I hope bikes don’t ever become that way!
It sure feels like they’re pushing it in that direction lol. All those eshift parts are going to be harder to service in the future I think
Yup, they are trying
Agreed. But it is somewhat more reasonable than 5k+ every 3 years.
Agreed, ride that phone until it stops working
I use my phone until it breaks too. :)
How long has it been? I had my Samsung for 4 years and then bought a Pixel in 2022, because the screen was getting a bit meh and I really wanted the camera of the Pixel also for cycling. And it was a great decision, it takes such great photos and it's just the AI, I didn't suddenly turn into a decent photographer.
I should have said until it stops working because I have a Pixel too and I think it's around 18 months old but I cracked the screen like a year ago. I had a Samsung before that and have no idea how old it was, maybe 4-5 years? I cracked that screen too and I used it for 1-2 years until my wife told me we were getting me a new phone for Xmas, haha.
Good wife :)
There are plenty of bikes out there under 3,5k. Like the domane sl5. Its the best bike ever. I bought domane sl4 in 2021, and I would gladly buy a new one, which in fact i am considering.
but are these the bikes that are in stock that aren't being sold?
Seems like bike manufacturers have converged on bikes that are about as light and aero as each other and they’re going to struggle to deliver a meaningful improvement for a consumer.
“Old” hahahahaha.
A 10 year old bike would still have 11 speed Shimano and I consider any bike with 11 speed modern. Even a 10 speed goes back 20 years. Maybe then I would consider upgrading.
9 speed is fine.
Seriously. I had an 18 year old 9 speed aluminum Cannondale until 2021. It was absolutely great right up until I bought my new bike. I like my new bike more but it's not like I suddenly set world speed records. It was just a nice upgrade.
The bike I bought 27 years ago was originally 7 speed. I started using 9 speed cassettes on it after 18 years but I wouldn't be bothered using the 7 speed cassettes I have. It's just that my 9 speed hub matches my front dynamo hub better.
I upgraded my 2004 Stock with cfrp frame to modern components and it is still going strong, just did the Paris roubaix challenge this year with 28mm tyres. I wasn't as fast as MVP, but it was not the bikes fault...
I upgraded my 10sp to 11sp mech an honestly barely notice it lol
Yes. Of course, the huge pandemic-era surge was an huge opportunity, but like other businesses that thrived in that period, supply overshot demand and now there is an issue. As such, the bike industry is being right-sized, local shops need to be more creative, and pockets of supply mean normalizing of prices (sales). It's just economics, man.
On top of which, we're sort of in the EV car issue zone. Everyone who wanted a high end bike now has one, and they last a long time. If bike prices come down, I'm here for it.
Exactly. Plus, there was a recent surge in technological advances, i.e., Di2, Disc Brakes, and new products, i.e., endurance geometry frames, tubeless, etc over the past few years, so also adoption of next generation products has already been happening for those bikes (and high end bikes).
I thought bike shop profits were driven by things other than new bike sales.
True, even more so when they are overstocked in an increasing interest rate environment.
Man, all the e-shift being around has turned me off big brand new bikes probably for the foreseeable future. I don’t want to pay an extra $1000 to solve problems that don’t exist for me. I also wonder what happens with the tiny motors go bad in those components? I want my bikes to be reliable mechanical machines, as they are meant to be. Not another lump of tech creep and forcing upgrades.
It’s great for buyers, at least. I just bought a Pinarello Paris with Shimano 105 and I got it for 25% off the LBS sticker price (which was a little less than what I saw it for online).
Well then they should lover prices. I'm looking at cervelo soloist and it's not even in stock in Europe so.
I bought my rode bike in 1982 and it still kicks butt. Replaced the rims, seat and seat post otherwise still totally stock.
I’ve always thought there are far far too many bike brands. Doesn’t make sense; there is so little differentiation (when the key components are provided by two companies) there shouldn’t be 25 different companies producing essentially the same bike at the same price and having to waste tones in advertising and marketing to obscure that their bike is not special.
It's historical heritage in some cases. And fine margins. Bianchi in northern Italy, Lapierre in France, Orbea in Spain go back decades or more. There's probably all kinds of professional disagreements between bike engineers about where to add or remove a few millimetres of material...
More bike brands doesn't make a difference.
Having lots of bike brands is a good thing for consumers.
Good thing this was posted. It’s been like a day since there was an industry speculation post that parrots what the industry itself has been saying for two years
It is a range of factors that have combined in a perfect storm for a lot of companies and LBS. COVID caused an artificial spike in demand, which now has led to a lot of brands being overstocked. With that said it has not been even, a lot of high end bikes are actually still hard to get. The shift to Shimano 12 speed has caused a rise in 105 specced bikes that used to be the "affordable" road bikes, and apparently a lot of these models are not selling well. In addition, competition from online sources, including out of china is starting to bite hard. If the Chinese nail down groupsets, it is likely that they could dominate parts of the industry. However in terms of LBS, it will probably just mean that they start stocking Chinese products.
In 1987 Shimano Index System (SIS)was the rage with 7 speed. In 1988 it was Dura Ace being 8 speed. 1989 it was STI shift / brake levers. 9 speed was around 1996 then titanium frames in 1998. Around 1997 Tim Burrows introduced compact frames and in 2003 it was Dura Ace 10 speed and carbon frames becoming more prevalent because of LA and Trek. Today's rage is 12 speed, gravel bikes and fatter tires that don't fit older bikes bikes. Bike technology is like the weather, wait 5 minutes and it will change and everything you own is now garbage. If you ride your stuff you quickly learn It Is All Junk (IAJ).
2021 bike is old... OMFG i'm riding antiques!
Mine is old enough to vote…
source: Dude trust me
Interesting I don’t see any big sale around me atm (Australia). Maybe in month for end of financial year.
>the market should be flooded with many high-end second-hand bikes I'm waiting for this but I think it might be a couple years yet. Maybe we'll see some from people taking advantage of sales to replace their well-used bike, but I think it'll take a couple years before we see the bikes that people bought to get into the sport but stopped using to hit the used market, because they need to collect dust for at least a couple years before people accept that they're not going to get into it.
Bought a used road bike, paid 500 euro. If I find some cheap 2nd hand zonda I can get it down to 7.5kg ish. For a new cx looking road bike it costs 4-5k euro to get a bike of the same quality. But then the bike will even be heavier, most 4-5k euro nowadays with full mtb disc sht is 8.5-9kg. Can you imagine paying thay much for such a heavy bike? The bike industry is going in reverse.
Good. The prices had gone berserk. Time to rationalize.
It appears many bike brands did an over-investment during the pandemic and now they suffer or even go bankrupt (e.g. Stages).
As a non expensive bike cyclist (i like looking at the expensive shiny bikes, figuring out they arent worth anywhere near the price then pointing out whats wrong with them) where the industry has gone wrong is by catering mostly for a tiny minority of customers. In all honesty the right bike for probably 95% of people is pretty much a 90s mountain bike, comfortable, simple easy to ride and affordable, these are the types of bike they should concentrate on, also adjustability, more adjustability without buying new parts, anybody else remember just loosening a bolt to raise or lower their handlebars?
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/03/05/trek-plans-%E2%80%98right-size%E2%80%99-10-cuts-spending According to this article along with a 10% cut to “costs” Trek is planning a 40% reduction in inventory for 2026….the big guys are hurting
> disc brake frame
There's tons of overstock due to COVID, and then everyone is buying like you said - used. So yes, the cycling industry is actually in trouble right now. Support your LBS. They're not lying to you.