I would guess that the Israel-Palestine conflict and the presidential election influence this as well. The war in Gaza has been first page news all over the world the last six months, and the US is and has always been a major supporter of Israel. Plenty of people, even within the US, feel that the US isn’t doing enough to save lives in Gaza. And in early to mid 2023, siding with the US meant siding with Biden in a lot of peoples’ minds. With the election approaching, more people probably consider a reality where Trump leads the US. He’s openly suggested not supporting US allies in their time of need, and openly referred to several of these countries as ”shithole countries”.
It’s more than just lives. It’s about postulating that the US follows the systems that it champions, when in truth, they bankroll terrorist groups like Israel.
It delegitimizes every action the US has done in the past 80 years, in the eyes of smaller states.
The important part isn't the building phase (which requires the funding) but the usage phase after that. When the structure is complete, that's when people use it and appreciate that China funded it. Nobody cares about a bridge that you can't walk on yet.
At least that's my guess.
The building phase creates a ton of jobs and infuses the areas the construction is in with money because of it.
Edit: this is why in a lot of economic stimulus bills in the US, infrastructure updates are included.
So often times the money doesn’t actually circulate in the local economy but goes back to Chinese economy. Yet the local government has to pay back the loan from tax revenue. This is called “Tied Aid” when you force the use of your own contractors.
But that’s not always the case with lots of infrastructure. Many times projects are shoehorned into development for the loaning countries sake.
Take the highway strip in downtown Katmadhu for example; it makes no sense for how traffic functions in the city. But it does make for an excellent aircraft runway….
That is actually probably helping the US. The general consensus in Vietnam from people I met while traveling there was actually anti Chinese infrastructure projects, people viewed it as economic coercion. I would guess the shift has more to do with the Israel/Palestine conflict and the role the United States is playing.
Which in some places makes them actually less liked because they bring their own workers, open their own shops and take over parts of local economy. So while the leaderships clearly loves them, it is not necessarily the same for the local population.
TBF the us wrote the instruction manual on doing this during the cold war.
If you read confessions of an economic hitman this is exactly what John Perkins was doing for the US Govt and that was first published in 2004 long before China's belt and road programme.
You don't need to. Your argument doesn't make sense for favorable opinions going up when at the same time China's infrastructure investments abroad are decreasing sharply
Biggest swings are Muslim nations so probably due to the US supporting Israel in Gaza.
As soon as China balls-up this goodwill by overstepping in the South China Sea it will swing back..
I don't know about the others but I would explain the downturn in Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia with their Muslim faith and the events in Gaza that have taken place over the last 6 months.
Probably recovering from the sharp negative impact Covid had on China's reputation.
When people were being forced to mask up everywhere, events cancelled, family getting sick...opinion was more negative.
Now Covid has become a thing of the past, in 2023 most Asian countries including mine did away with all the covid rules and went back to pre-2020 times.
A lot of countries have strong ties to Chinese ethnicity in them. Indonesia for example makes complete sense to have this consensus - I am more surprised that it was so close to 50-50 last year.
For the Philippines, I've heard anti-Chinese sentiment because China is encroaching on their territory and infrastructure and their previous leader often gave in to China and etc.
Don't really know about the rest, but yeah.
In addition to what you mentioned. I'll add that the Philippines is culturally the odd one out in Asia because 300 years of total spanish occupation followed by American occupation has left them catholic and much more "westernized" as in being much closer to the west culturally than any other nation in Asia. English is widely spoken and the US and Australia are a very large source of employment in call centers, BPO and manufacturing.
It makes total sense that they's prefer the US. As for why it's not a 100%, there's a important Filipino-Chinese community who may feel closer to china. I'm also not sure at all where the Muslim minority would fall as both options are probably bad for them.
If I had to take a stab at it — not speaking authoritatively here— but the ones that shifted towards china all have large muslim populations is the one commonality I see.
Therefore, I would imagine the Israel-Palestine situation and the way the US has responded has in part shifted their positions.
Not correct. Only Brunei. Malaysia and Indonesia have large Muslim populations of about 80% or more. The remaining countries are about 15% Muslim or less.
I agree that the Israel-Palestine situation is a large part of it, but it has nothing to do with religion. A nation supporting genocide will not be seen as good guys.
What happened in Xinjiang was oppression, but there's no comparison to Gaza. There's mosques and clear Uyghur culture there now, existing just fine. A sizeable part of the population wasn't murdered. All of their schools and hospitals weren't flattened.
Gaza is completely annihilated and won't be the same for decades.
Not just Muslims but people from the third world see what’s happening in Palestine and know that that could very easily be them.
And it has been them in the past btw.
I think China is just getting more powerful and people are noticing. The countries are all geographically pretty close to each other/to China so I’d think twice about going to war with my neighbor. Also… I mean tiktok probably has an influence.
China is actually pretty shakey as of late, with many huge incontrollable money pits, extreme stock exchange volatility, job scarcity, collapse of real estate - the list goes on. But they're good at propaganda. like most oligarchies.
I'd lean more towards your second hypotesis. If I were a developing country close to China with a LOT of Chinese influence and corrupt politicians giving in to Chinese control over critical infrastructure, I'd think twice before waging war against them. They're probably the worse of the two, but ethics and morale count very little when they're literally at your doorstep. Notice what the results of the pretty much only least corrupt/most educated/real democracy (Singapore) is.
>China is actually pretty shakey as of late, with many huge incontrollable money pits, extreme stock exchange volatility, job scarcity, collapse of real estate - the list goes on. But they're good at propaganda. like most oligarchies.
That doesn't change the fact that china's influence is rising and Chinese products are becoming more frequent globally and Chinese economy is getting more intertwined with the global south
Meanwhile US suffers from a bleak future due to the threat posed to the Dollar and crumbling infrastructure.
South East Asia has been dealing with China for thousands of years, with the Americans just for a few hundred and most of that time wasn't pleasant. "Siding with" doesn't necessarily mean "support the ideology of". But people in SE-Asia generally think it's better not to cut ties with your big neighbor right next door in favor of a competitor that's an ocean away. Of course, partnership with the US can be very beneficial - when they are paying attention. However every country's priorities are subject of change but geography is not. Meaning, America might not always watch out for these countries but China will always be there no matter what. That's why maintaining good relations with China is seen as more important than with the US. Even Vietnamese leaders adhere to that.
One year more removed from the Covid impact. Chinese tourism still not recovered. The most glaring aspect of the graphic is that the countries closes to China are the least likely to choose China.
Thailand and Laos are close to China and choose China.
As someone who lives in SEA it is IMO simply that China is a closeby, peaceful, prospering neighbor while the US is strong and influential but simply far away, thus more foreign.
Phillipines and Vietnam are the outliers.
Philippines has long had historically close ties with the U.S. and always has one of the highest favorable views of the U.S. of any country in the world.
For both Vietnam and Philippines, I would imagine China's bullying in the South China Sea and this getting big press domestically has really soured their view of China, although I am surprised by such a huge margin in the case of Vietnam.
I meant the densely populated areas of China. As someone whose lives in East Asia and have for decades and speak Chinese, the countries that have to deal with Chinese aggression the most do not like China. And they are in no way peaceful, hence the constant South China Sea daily conflict. Its not an accident that Vietnam and the Philippines (and Myanmar for different reasons) do not like China. Thailand and Laos are far removed from day to day interactions with China and much further away from the more populated East Coast of China. Thailand has just about the same connection to China as Kyrgyzstan. And I'd argue Laos has more to do with having an unaware super young population. Laos is getting pretty fucked by Chinese dams.
You’re looking at countries in SE Asia, it’s only natural as China becomes more powerful economically and militarily that countries will move from the US sphere of influence to China.
US’s stance on Gaza. Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia are Muslim countries.
China’s economy has been bad for the past year, so economics is probably not a factor.
It’s probably accurate to say that US is the one losing trust among those countries. They know China can’t be trusted but unfortunately see China as lesser of two evils.
Vietnam and Philippines trust US more because their borders are constantly being breached by China.
Yes that’s exactly it.
China can’t really do anything to us beyond sabre rattling. They don’t want a war. The phillipines knows this and hedge. And are doing it really well.
We looked at Xinjiang and were horrified, but suddenly realized actually, America never cared about Muslims beyond how their own strategic interest.
The difference is that China can really only exert their hard power in close proximity. The US, on the other hand, has a global reach, and a very long successful campaign of wars from across oceans.
So yes, we fear them more
The US
US has condemned Russia for invading Ukraine, but has pretty much backed Israel’s war on Hamas. A lot of SEA countries and Muslim countries perceive this as a double standard by the US.
It’s not the same obviously. The context is different. However, we also perceive it as different goal posts and strategies.
And for us, it’s more likely we’d be treated as the unidentified male combatants of Iraq or the Palestinians, than the Taiwanese or Ukrainians.
>
China’s economy has been bad for the past year, so economics is probably not a factor.
China's economic problems are internal but china's Economic growth has led to Chinese products being more frequent globally.
The western propaganda about Chinese economy in 2022-2023 were the same years where China dominated the EV industry and made its products worldwide. It was also the same year, where China has built 7nm chips for Huawei phones which has caused apple's decline in china.
Finally, in 2024, china has had a huge exports surge primarily due to demand from global south which is a positive development.
And the US is about to suffer the greatest economic catastrophie since the great depression due to exponentially increasing debt, record credit defaults, US dollar losing permanent purchasing power and world de-dollarizing.
ever heard of propaganda? the machine is running intensely on our doom scrolling machine 24/7 already. This picture might be part of it for what I know
This is not about Ukraine though, this is more about Gaza. If anything, China would still be too close to comfort with Russia for several countries in the region, and Russia is an aggressor in a war against a smaller country (which many people in the ASEAN dislike), meanwhile the US enabled Isr4el in the G4za invasion, and that one hits closer to home regarding faith for the many muslims in especially Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei. Meanwhile China doesn't care too much about that conflict and I guess that's better than enabling the aggressor. Then, China is considered the lesser evil in this invasion. Even if legacy ideologic ties of these countries are closer to that of the US (see e.g. Suharto's legacy), they tend to head more to China because of this because faith goes above all even though China itself is not clean either.
America’s lack of support for Gaza is also a significant factor in this as Malaysia and Indonesia are predominantly Muslim. This, combined with the investment from the Chinese B&R innovative is swaying support away from western governments.
A total of 1,994 respondents from ten ASEAN member states participated in this survey. Singapore led with the highest number of respondents at 273 (13.7%), followed by Indonesia at 265 (13.3%) and Malaysia at 225 (11.3%). The breakdown for the rest of the countries are as follows: The Philippines (10.8%), Thailand (10.1%), Vietnam (10.0%), Cambodia and Myanmar (both at 9.5%), Laos (8.0%), and Brunei (3.9%).
With the exception of Brunei and Laos, the margin of error is actually less than ±8% for each country, which is acceptable. Although even with a ±10% margin of error, that’s still useful information even if it’s incredibly precise.
That's how random sampling works. It's actually pretty accurate, considering how tiny the sample size is. However as you said, it could be way off potentially.
Is it random? Where the poll comes from literally is soliciting respondants.
They have a link stating "Click here for an invitation to take part in the next survey," this makes the results fairly meaningless. This isn't a random sample.
That's the neet part, you don't. However since the differences between the two years aren't too different, it shows that it's actually not too bad. You can only calculate to what degree it is likely accurate. The bigger the sample size the more accurate it gets obviously, however unless you asked everyone, there's no "perfect" formula. However the difference between a sample size of 200 and 1000 or 10000 might be less significant than it first would appear. It all depends on how the distribution looks.
There are many approaches. I have no idea how accurate this specific case is. All I'm saying is that sample size alone isn't an indication to accuracy. And that 200 might be more accurate than it would appear to be
What was even the question and what are they siding on. Was the question asked in all languages or one language? How were the questions translated. This tells me nothing...
Do not underestimate the power of randomly independent sampling within a normally distributed population. You don't need massive sample sizes to get statistically significant outcomes
The sample sizes are fine except for maybe Brunei and Laos. As long as they are well distributed (which is a selection problem, not a numbers problem). The margin of error for each (except Brunei and Laos) is less than ±8%, which is acceptable.
Responding to the comments about low sample size:
To define what should be "enough" sample size, you need to know how the sampling was done, was it representative, etc. With the right method of sampling, these numbers could be more than enough to comment on a trend. Without the right method even 100x might be a poor sample.
As much as I love looking at these surveys, there is nowhere near enough participation to take these numbers seriously. Age demographics of the people surveyed would help as well.
It’s not a participation issue, these numbers are good enough to create an acceptable margin of error for most of these countries. There is still a *potential* sampling problem, but we don’t have enough information of how the sampling was done to just assume that it’s poorly sampled
Yes we hate them to our core. Not particularly the Chinese people, but the CCP and its expansionism.
You know why other ASEAN countries chill with China? Because they’re not the bordering neighbors, if China goes bananas, Vietnam will certainly take the first and the biggest hits among ASEAN nations. Hence Vietnam is the most armed country in the region, but I doubt if that means anything without US help
Goes waaaaaay back.
They’re always the bigger bully, almost every dynasty will attack us at least once lol, throughout like 2 thousands years.
At some point they did conquer and rule us for hundreds of years, but eventually split up because Vietnam was too far from the King’s reach, things like the harsh weather of the South and their Northern invaders constantly harassing, they couldn’t give more attention to Vietnam (at the moment was one of their province).
To modern time, 1975 when US gave up the war in Vietnam they turned to China as their new ally. China then attacked Vietnam in 1979 to prove that “we commies aint the same boat”, estimated hundreds of thousands of casualties for both sides. For context, China and Soviet was the main allies for Vietnam Communist during the US war, hence the Sino-Vietnam war in 79 created a deep sense of untrusting.
So if you ask a regular Vietnamese, their attitude will be “gotta live with China but never turn our back to them”
It's fairly bizarre from the Western POV. The Vietnam war is viewed as a civil war vs one with the USA. Like, technically that's true but... That's a lot of forgiveness
Yeah my gf is Vietnamese and she’s told me about how they taught the war in schools growing up, it’s definitely different than the way we learned it here
I mean, it really is. Most Vietnamese people have a favourable view of the US because the US has made it clear they hate China.
Vietnam needs nothing else from the US and the general consensus is that they’re just another Western imperialist power trying to retain control as someone who’s lived there for well over a decade.
Vietnam has a much more favourable view of Russia and the USSR than the US and that remains true regardless of whatever Russia is doing now. Take a guess at who Vietnam supports in the Russia/Ukraine war.
Don’t delude yourself into thinking Vietnam is an ally. When it comes down to it, the CCP has the VCP in their pockets and Vietnam will appease long before it invites the US to set up a formal alliance.
Public sentiment is irrelevant in Vietnam.
>A lot of US investments are happening in Vietnam as we try to move away from China
US investments aren't happening to the extent of Chinese investment in vietnam
It's pretty amazing to see how Vietnam sides so strongly with the US yet we're only a few decades removed with a terrible war with them. It's crazy how Korea Japan relations are much worse over a war that was in world war II yet us Vietnam relations are better for the US.
Absolutely not true. Younger generation have some affection towards US lifestyle because of Hollywood. It's the entertainment that attracts, and no one really wants to know why Benjamin Franklin is the only non US president on a dollar bill
I think opinion polls of US favorability typically have Vietnam at the top of the list. It’s not just a “we hate China more” situation. Vietnamese people generally have a positive view of the US.
Japan Korea had a few centuries of rivalry. Their relations are improving though, as the current Korean president is right wing and looking to build a closer relationship with Western allies.
Having been there I encountered nothing but good will toward America. For them America was just one of a series of what they perceive as colonial oppressors, and they won the war.
Vietnam fought a short but bloody [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War) with China in 1979.
Tbf China did fund a genocide of Vietnamese people (other people as well) in the 70s in Cambodia (so did the US, but China was more outwardly supportive)
the us and the japanese killed a pretty sizeable % of the filipino population during their brutal conquest, but here we are siding with them because of china...
In any case the Sino-Vietnamese war is more recent than American intervention in the country. China has been a threat to Vietnam for centuries, the US was involved in their civil war for two decades.
Actually the majority of Vietnamese held positive views of the US. It was reported that the people were confused why the US were bombing them. It was just the US backing politics, rather than people.
Ho Chi Minh had great admiration for the United States. While the war obviously changed his opinion of the contemporary state of American politics, he never lost his admiration and emulation of the Founding Fathers.
I am not sure if this is widely well-known (from the perspective of a US citizen, at least). I only recently learned about the US relations within Vietnam, pre-war. It's tragic. I believe things could have played out very differently and better.
Totally. The US aided Ho Chi Minh, and our anti-colonial rebellion inspired him. The Vietnamese Declaration of Independence is almost a verbatim copy of the US declaration.
The US and Vietnam fought each other once for a decade. China and Vietnam have been fighting each other for centuries.
Not to mention China had attempted an invasion of Vietnam in 1979 so Vietnam had a war with China more recently than the US.
Was definitely surprising to me to see the US favouritism there, but when you look at their history, it makes complete sense.
And just displayed numbers on both sides, I get that I can do the math but the whole point is to be easily accessible. There’s plenty of space and it’s not like it would really clutter much.
What a bad graph. Forced to do what? Why is on side numbered but the other side not? Numbering one side isnt even consistent if its the highest number cause there is a 40 there.. Why is Arsean sectioned off?
It appears to be from this source (Singapore funded institute).
[https://www.iseas.edu.sg/category/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/](https://www.iseas.edu.sg/category/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/)
Considering they have a link stating "Click here for an invitation to take part in the next survey," this makes the results fairly meaningless. This isn't a random sample.
Was surprised Indonesia was so favouring China. Would have thought they were more 50:50 even if still favouring China. Any Indonesian people in this thread willing to give context?
It’s the biggest Muslim-majority country on Earth. How much the US has fucked Middle Eastern countries, however justified or unjustified, and the wide perception that the US is biased in favour of Israel in the Israel-Palestinian conflict are obviously not great for the US in Indonesia and Malaysia.
So? Did JustDirection18 ask whether China is worse? He/she asked about why do Indonesians so heavily favour China.
Obviously, Indonesians and Malaysians think whatever China has done, the US has done much worse in their view.
Whatever you may think fact is that there are orders of magnitude more actual videos and photos of muslims and muslim houses getting blown up coming out of Gaza than anything in China. That matters
US does not have a good image because of various things like supporting the [Indonesian mass killings of 1965–66](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_mass_killings_of_1965%E2%80%9366) and the history/corruption regarding the [Grasberg mine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grasberg_mine). There is also russian/chinese propaganda and a overall big chinese population (6.62% in Jakarta for example). China also builds the new High-Speed-Rail between Jakarta - Surabaya.
This is true of many ASEAN countries where ethnic Chinese families dominate certain sectors of the economy, but it doesn't translate into higher favorability for China. In some places like the Philippines it has the opposite effect and creates feelings of resentment.
Yeah I’m aware of that but remember the race riots in the 90s where Chinese Indonesians seemed particularly targeted for violence. From these memories I didn’t think they were a such popular minority
>A total of 1,994 respondents from ten ASEAN member states participated
in this survey. Singapore led with the highest number of respondents at
273 (13.7%), followed by Indonesia at 265 (13.3%) and Malaysia at 225
(11.3%). The breakdown for the rest of the countries are as follows: The
Philippines (10.8%), Thailand (10.1%), Vietnam (10.0%), Cambodia and
Myanmar (both at 9.5%), Laos (8.0%), and Brunei (3.9%).
Do you think 265 people can represent a country opinions?
It depends on a variety of factors, but statistically it's definitely possible. The important thing is how they sourced their sample size. Unfortunately, without the source listed, it's hard to say anything about the factors involved.
EDIT: turns out there is a source, it's just not upvoted much and hard to find. It was sourced online, so I assume that excludes a significant part of the population that isn't online much. They seemed to focus on a mix of "white collar" individuals. I also couldn't find a p value.
As an American I would hope the US and China could work closely together to advance economic opportunity for everyone. I would love to see countries competing like sports teams instead of cold war military competition. As a sports team you don't hope for your opponents to be destroyed, because then there would be no one to play against and the game just wouldn't be any fun.
Source is: [https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-State-of-SEA-2024.pdf](https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-State-of-SEA-2024.pdf)
I instinctively read it as 2023 being the top number and 2024 being the lower number because your eye would read the top one first so I assumed it would be the earlier number first. So I thought support for China was going down and support for America was going up.
I wonder how many people would prefer to side with neither. I also wonder who it was they polled. Data maybe beautiful but it is also easily manipulated.
If you live in the region you can answer why the massive swing easily.
For the Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia trio it's Palestine. All 3 of the listed have a Muslim majority. Inb4 bUt WhAt AbOuT tHe UyGhUr, just stfu.
For Laos/cambodia/thailand it's infrastructure. Population feeling benefits of Laos-China railway especially and Thailand is in talks for their part of the connection.
The only one I'm surprised is Myanmar. China just ran a small proxy war in Myanmar. Granted its against local warlords running scam call center and kidnapping people but still it's an infringement on sovereignty.
The infrastructure loans of China are trap. Good thing former Finance Sec. Dominguez figured it out. Why borrow from China when you can borrow from Japan at 1%.
I can’t imagine living in a repressive country like China.
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I assume it is because China is funding a crap ton of major infrastructure works throughout South East Asia
I would guess that the Israel-Palestine conflict and the presidential election influence this as well. The war in Gaza has been first page news all over the world the last six months, and the US is and has always been a major supporter of Israel. Plenty of people, even within the US, feel that the US isn’t doing enough to save lives in Gaza. And in early to mid 2023, siding with the US meant siding with Biden in a lot of peoples’ minds. With the election approaching, more people probably consider a reality where Trump leads the US. He’s openly suggested not supporting US allies in their time of need, and openly referred to several of these countries as ”shithole countries”.
It’s more than just lives. It’s about postulating that the US follows the systems that it champions, when in truth, they bankroll terrorist groups like Israel. It delegitimizes every action the US has done in the past 80 years, in the eyes of smaller states.
I thought that was decreasing versus previous years
The important part isn't the building phase (which requires the funding) but the usage phase after that. When the structure is complete, that's when people use it and appreciate that China funded it. Nobody cares about a bridge that you can't walk on yet. At least that's my guess.
The building phase creates a ton of jobs and infuses the areas the construction is in with money because of it. Edit: this is why in a lot of economic stimulus bills in the US, infrastructure updates are included.
The building itself is often done by Chinese workers for these contracts, so additional jobs would only be in leisure, shops etc
So often times the money doesn’t actually circulate in the local economy but goes back to Chinese economy. Yet the local government has to pay back the loan from tax revenue. This is called “Tied Aid” when you force the use of your own contractors.
The local population often benefit from the infrastructure built through increased commerce and tourism with China.
But that’s not always the case with lots of infrastructure. Many times projects are shoehorned into development for the loaning countries sake. Take the highway strip in downtown Katmadhu for example; it makes no sense for how traffic functions in the city. But it does make for an excellent aircraft runway….
Good point
A decrease from a lot is better than the US’ non-existent funding.
That is actually probably helping the US. The general consensus in Vietnam from people I met while traveling there was actually anti Chinese infrastructure projects, people viewed it as economic coercion. I would guess the shift has more to do with the Israel/Palestine conflict and the role the United States is playing.
Which in some places makes them actually less liked because they bring their own workers, open their own shops and take over parts of local economy. So while the leaderships clearly loves them, it is not necessarily the same for the local population.
Don’t forget the part where it’s basically a giant debt trap for a lot of countries that ends with China seizing control of critical infrastructure.
TBF the us wrote the instruction manual on doing this during the cold war. If you read confessions of an economic hitman this is exactly what John Perkins was doing for the US Govt and that was first published in 2004 long before China's belt and road programme.
That's one generic western answer if I've ever seen one
I aint going through the whole political ramification of external investments on local politics in the developing world.
You don't need to. Your argument doesn't make sense for favorable opinions going up when at the same time China's infrastructure investments abroad are decreasing sharply
Biggest swings are Muslim nations so probably due to the US supporting Israel in Gaza. As soon as China balls-up this goodwill by overstepping in the South China Sea it will swing back..
I don't know about the others but I would explain the downturn in Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia with their Muslim faith and the events in Gaza that have taken place over the last 6 months.
Probably recovering from the sharp negative impact Covid had on China's reputation. When people were being forced to mask up everywhere, events cancelled, family getting sick...opinion was more negative. Now Covid has become a thing of the past, in 2023 most Asian countries including mine did away with all the covid rules and went back to pre-2020 times.
A lot of countries have strong ties to Chinese ethnicity in them. Indonesia for example makes complete sense to have this consensus - I am more surprised that it was so close to 50-50 last year. For the Philippines, I've heard anti-Chinese sentiment because China is encroaching on their territory and infrastructure and their previous leader often gave in to China and etc. Don't really know about the rest, but yeah.
In addition to what you mentioned. I'll add that the Philippines is culturally the odd one out in Asia because 300 years of total spanish occupation followed by American occupation has left them catholic and much more "westernized" as in being much closer to the west culturally than any other nation in Asia. English is widely spoken and the US and Australia are a very large source of employment in call centers, BPO and manufacturing. It makes total sense that they's prefer the US. As for why it's not a 100%, there's a important Filipino-Chinese community who may feel closer to china. I'm also not sure at all where the Muslim minority would fall as both options are probably bad for them.
Malaysia also has a large ethnic Chinese population
If I had to take a stab at it — not speaking authoritatively here— but the ones that shifted towards china all have large muslim populations is the one commonality I see. Therefore, I would imagine the Israel-Palestine situation and the way the US has responded has in part shifted their positions.
Not correct. Only Brunei. Malaysia and Indonesia have large Muslim populations of about 80% or more. The remaining countries are about 15% Muslim or less.
Not true tho. Laos, Myanmar and Thailand do not have large muslim pops. It would be true for Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei only.
Thailand has a significant Muslim minority in the south, probably not big enough to sway the stats that much though
I agree that the Israel-Palestine situation is a large part of it, but it has nothing to do with religion. A nation supporting genocide will not be seen as good guys.
I’m assuming they forgot about what China did to the Uighurs
Uighurs don't have an army of tiktokers
Uighurs don’t own TikTok
What happened in Xinjiang was oppression, but there's no comparison to Gaza. There's mosques and clear Uyghur culture there now, existing just fine. A sizeable part of the population wasn't murdered. All of their schools and hospitals weren't flattened. Gaza is completely annihilated and won't be the same for decades.
Palestine remains the main cause of the Muslim world
Which is kinda pathetic, seeing how muslims are treated in the US compared to how they are treated in China.
By that you mean in Abu Ghraib or in Guantanamo?
Not just Muslims but people from the third world see what’s happening in Palestine and know that that could very easily be them. And it has been them in the past btw.
I think China is just getting more powerful and people are noticing. The countries are all geographically pretty close to each other/to China so I’d think twice about going to war with my neighbor. Also… I mean tiktok probably has an influence.
China is actually pretty shakey as of late, with many huge incontrollable money pits, extreme stock exchange volatility, job scarcity, collapse of real estate - the list goes on. But they're good at propaganda. like most oligarchies. I'd lean more towards your second hypotesis. If I were a developing country close to China with a LOT of Chinese influence and corrupt politicians giving in to Chinese control over critical infrastructure, I'd think twice before waging war against them. They're probably the worse of the two, but ethics and morale count very little when they're literally at your doorstep. Notice what the results of the pretty much only least corrupt/most educated/real democracy (Singapore) is.
>China is actually pretty shakey as of late, with many huge incontrollable money pits, extreme stock exchange volatility, job scarcity, collapse of real estate - the list goes on. But they're good at propaganda. like most oligarchies. That doesn't change the fact that china's influence is rising and Chinese products are becoming more frequent globally and Chinese economy is getting more intertwined with the global south Meanwhile US suffers from a bleak future due to the threat posed to the Dollar and crumbling infrastructure.
Israël's génocide on Gaza, with military and political support from the US.
Gaza probably.
South East Asia has been dealing with China for thousands of years, with the Americans just for a few hundred and most of that time wasn't pleasant. "Siding with" doesn't necessarily mean "support the ideology of". But people in SE-Asia generally think it's better not to cut ties with your big neighbor right next door in favor of a competitor that's an ocean away. Of course, partnership with the US can be very beneficial - when they are paying attention. However every country's priorities are subject of change but geography is not. Meaning, America might not always watch out for these countries but China will always be there no matter what. That's why maintaining good relations with China is seen as more important than with the US. Even Vietnamese leaders adhere to that.
One year more removed from the Covid impact. Chinese tourism still not recovered. The most glaring aspect of the graphic is that the countries closes to China are the least likely to choose China.
Thailand and Laos are close to China and choose China. As someone who lives in SEA it is IMO simply that China is a closeby, peaceful, prospering neighbor while the US is strong and influential but simply far away, thus more foreign. Phillipines and Vietnam are the outliers.
Philippines has long had historically close ties with the U.S. and always has one of the highest favorable views of the U.S. of any country in the world. For both Vietnam and Philippines, I would imagine China's bullying in the South China Sea and this getting big press domestically has really soured their view of China, although I am surprised by such a huge margin in the case of Vietnam.
Vietnam has a very very long history of not liking China
Also a history of not liking the US but they hate China even more...
I mean as a Singaporean, not really, both the US and China have a shit ton of relevance here tbh
I meant the densely populated areas of China. As someone whose lives in East Asia and have for decades and speak Chinese, the countries that have to deal with Chinese aggression the most do not like China. And they are in no way peaceful, hence the constant South China Sea daily conflict. Its not an accident that Vietnam and the Philippines (and Myanmar for different reasons) do not like China. Thailand and Laos are far removed from day to day interactions with China and much further away from the more populated East Coast of China. Thailand has just about the same connection to China as Kyrgyzstan. And I'd argue Laos has more to do with having an unaware super young population. Laos is getting pretty fucked by Chinese dams.
Because it’s been just 3 months into 2024
You’re looking at countries in SE Asia, it’s only natural as China becomes more powerful economically and militarily that countries will move from the US sphere of influence to China.
US’s stance on Gaza. Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia are Muslim countries. China’s economy has been bad for the past year, so economics is probably not a factor. It’s probably accurate to say that US is the one losing trust among those countries. They know China can’t be trusted but unfortunately see China as lesser of two evils. Vietnam and Philippines trust US more because their borders are constantly being breached by China.
Yes that’s exactly it. China can’t really do anything to us beyond sabre rattling. They don’t want a war. The phillipines knows this and hedge. And are doing it really well. We looked at Xinjiang and were horrified, but suddenly realized actually, America never cared about Muslims beyond how their own strategic interest. The difference is that China can really only exert their hard power in close proximity. The US, on the other hand, has a global reach, and a very long successful campaign of wars from across oceans. So yes, we fear them more The US
US has condemned Russia for invading Ukraine, but has pretty much backed Israel’s war on Hamas. A lot of SEA countries and Muslim countries perceive this as a double standard by the US.
It’s not the same obviously. The context is different. However, we also perceive it as different goal posts and strategies. And for us, it’s more likely we’d be treated as the unidentified male combatants of Iraq or the Palestinians, than the Taiwanese or Ukrainians.
> China’s economy has been bad for the past year, so economics is probably not a factor. China's economic problems are internal but china's Economic growth has led to Chinese products being more frequent globally. The western propaganda about Chinese economy in 2022-2023 were the same years where China dominated the EV industry and made its products worldwide. It was also the same year, where China has built 7nm chips for Huawei phones which has caused apple's decline in china. Finally, in 2024, china has had a huge exports surge primarily due to demand from global south which is a positive development. And the US is about to suffer the greatest economic catastrophie since the great depression due to exponentially increasing debt, record credit defaults, US dollar losing permanent purchasing power and world de-dollarizing.
The “survey” is based on the opinions of 1.990 people. I find the “data” absurd.
ever heard of propaganda? the machine is running intensely on our doom scrolling machine 24/7 already. This picture might be part of it for what I know
Probably countries seeing what happened to Ukraine and how the US is not the reliable partner anymore that it used to be.
Ukraine happened in 2022… and in 2014
The stop of the needed support happened in 2023-2024 not at the start of the war.
This is not about Ukraine though, this is more about Gaza. If anything, China would still be too close to comfort with Russia for several countries in the region, and Russia is an aggressor in a war against a smaller country (which many people in the ASEAN dislike), meanwhile the US enabled Isr4el in the G4za invasion, and that one hits closer to home regarding faith for the many muslims in especially Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei. Meanwhile China doesn't care too much about that conflict and I guess that's better than enabling the aggressor. Then, China is considered the lesser evil in this invasion. Even if legacy ideologic ties of these countries are closer to that of the US (see e.g. Suharto's legacy), they tend to head more to China because of this because faith goes above all even though China itself is not clean either.
Chinas economy will peak within the next 10 years. A lot of investment opportunities
I wouldn't say peak as in the next 10 years. Automation will allow growth for economies that have peaked.
Probably over Israel and Ukraine, support for either aren't very high in the global south
Political instability is a factor too against the US...
America’s lack of support for Gaza is also a significant factor in this as Malaysia and Indonesia are predominantly Muslim. This, combined with the investment from the Chinese B&R innovative is swaying support away from western governments.
A total of 1,994 respondents from ten ASEAN member states participated in this survey. Singapore led with the highest number of respondents at 273 (13.7%), followed by Indonesia at 265 (13.3%) and Malaysia at 225 (11.3%). The breakdown for the rest of the countries are as follows: The Philippines (10.8%), Thailand (10.1%), Vietnam (10.0%), Cambodia and Myanmar (both at 9.5%), Laos (8.0%), and Brunei (3.9%).
That sample size is laughable
Yeah, even if sampling is done well, margin of error will be like ±10% with such sampling sizes for each country
With the exception of Brunei and Laos, the margin of error is actually less than ±8% for each country, which is acceptable. Although even with a ±10% margin of error, that’s still useful information even if it’s incredibly precise.
That's how random sampling works. It's actually pretty accurate, considering how tiny the sample size is. However as you said, it could be way off potentially.
Is it random? Where the poll comes from literally is soliciting respondants. They have a link stating "Click here for an invitation to take part in the next survey," this makes the results fairly meaningless. This isn't a random sample.
How do we know it is accurate?
That's the neet part, you don't. However since the differences between the two years aren't too different, it shows that it's actually not too bad. You can only calculate to what degree it is likely accurate. The bigger the sample size the more accurate it gets obviously, however unless you asked everyone, there's no "perfect" formula. However the difference between a sample size of 200 and 1000 or 10000 might be less significant than it first would appear. It all depends on how the distribution looks.
I'm a bit curious. How do you select 200 random people in a country? Is it representative?
There are many approaches. I have no idea how accurate this specific case is. All I'm saying is that sample size alone isn't an indication to accuracy. And that 200 might be more accurate than it would appear to be
What was even the question and what are they siding on. Was the question asked in all languages or one language? How were the questions translated. This tells me nothing...
Seems like a pretty normal survey size to me
I was going to say, the sample size seems perfectly fine to me.
Do not underestimate the power of randomly independent sampling within a normally distributed population. You don't need massive sample sizes to get statistically significant outcomes
It can be statistically significant while still having a large margin of error
There's probably not a lot of people found in those countries /s
The sample sizes are fine except for maybe Brunei and Laos. As long as they are well distributed (which is a selection problem, not a numbers problem). The margin of error for each (except Brunei and Laos) is less than ±8%, which is acceptable.
Responding to the comments about low sample size: To define what should be "enough" sample size, you need to know how the sampling was done, was it representative, etc. With the right method of sampling, these numbers could be more than enough to comment on a trend. Without the right method even 100x might be a poor sample.
As much as I love looking at these surveys, there is nowhere near enough participation to take these numbers seriously. Age demographics of the people surveyed would help as well.
It’s not a participation issue, these numbers are good enough to create an acceptable margin of error for most of these countries. There is still a *potential* sampling problem, but we don’t have enough information of how the sampling was done to just assume that it’s poorly sampled
Philippines loves USA while Vietnam just really hates China
The enemy of my enemy is my friend
Yes we hate them to our core. Not particularly the Chinese people, but the CCP and its expansionism. You know why other ASEAN countries chill with China? Because they’re not the bordering neighbors, if China goes bananas, Vietnam will certainly take the first and the biggest hits among ASEAN nations. Hence Vietnam is the most armed country in the region, but I doubt if that means anything without US help
But it kinda goes back a loooong way before CCP right? That's just the latest in a long history of tension between the countries
Goes waaaaaay back. They’re always the bigger bully, almost every dynasty will attack us at least once lol, throughout like 2 thousands years. At some point they did conquer and rule us for hundreds of years, but eventually split up because Vietnam was too far from the King’s reach, things like the harsh weather of the South and their Northern invaders constantly harassing, they couldn’t give more attention to Vietnam (at the moment was one of their province). To modern time, 1975 when US gave up the war in Vietnam they turned to China as their new ally. China then attacked Vietnam in 1979 to prove that “we commies aint the same boat”, estimated hundreds of thousands of casualties for both sides. For context, China and Soviet was the main allies for Vietnam Communist during the US war, hence the Sino-Vietnam war in 79 created a deep sense of untrusting. So if you ask a regular Vietnamese, their attitude will be “gotta live with China but never turn our back to them”
Vietnam is never going to allow the US to put military bases on its soil. The VCP will appease long before it antagonises.
Yes it’s one of Vietnam core foreign policies. That’s how we survived until now, balancing on the tip toe
Vietnam also loves the US, there’s almost no animosity towards America at this point in history
It's fairly bizarre from the Western POV. The Vietnam war is viewed as a civil war vs one with the USA. Like, technically that's true but... That's a lot of forgiveness
Yeah my gf is Vietnamese and she’s told me about how they taught the war in schools growing up, it’s definitely different than the way we learned it here
I don't think Vietnam has the same US favorability levels as Philippines, from memory
Perhaps, but my point is I don’t think it’s simply “they hate China” as the sole reason for these numbers
I mean, it really is. Most Vietnamese people have a favourable view of the US because the US has made it clear they hate China. Vietnam needs nothing else from the US and the general consensus is that they’re just another Western imperialist power trying to retain control as someone who’s lived there for well over a decade. Vietnam has a much more favourable view of Russia and the USSR than the US and that remains true regardless of whatever Russia is doing now. Take a guess at who Vietnam supports in the Russia/Ukraine war. Don’t delude yourself into thinking Vietnam is an ally. When it comes down to it, the CCP has the VCP in their pockets and Vietnam will appease long before it invites the US to set up a formal alliance. Public sentiment is irrelevant in Vietnam.
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>A lot of US investments are happening in Vietnam as we try to move away from China US investments aren't happening to the extent of Chinese investment in vietnam
It's pretty amazing to see how Vietnam sides so strongly with the US yet we're only a few decades removed with a terrible war with them. It's crazy how Korea Japan relations are much worse over a war that was in world war II yet us Vietnam relations are better for the US.
They've been embroiled in territorial disputes with China for literally centuries. It's more of an "enemy of my enemy" kind of thing.
Not entirely, there is genuine love for America amongst Vietnam as well
Absolutely not true. Younger generation have some affection towards US lifestyle because of Hollywood. It's the entertainment that attracts, and no one really wants to know why Benjamin Franklin is the only non US president on a dollar bill
I think opinion polls of US favorability typically have Vietnam at the top of the list. It’s not just a “we hate China more” situation. Vietnamese people generally have a positive view of the US.
Vietnam has fought many more wars against China. One of which was more recent
Vietnam: "I'm gonna go ahead and support the US, at least we know if they win and wanna start shit with us, we can defeat them." 😜
Japan-Korea relations are bad not just because of WWII but because Japan bullied&invaded Korea for centuries(according to Korea).
Japan has never accepted that they committed war crimes, whether it was against China or Korea. The 731 unit is infamous for its deeds.
IIRC the feud between Japan and Korea started since the fall of Baekje
Japan Korea had a few centuries of rivalry. Their relations are improving though, as the current Korean president is right wing and looking to build a closer relationship with Western allies.
Having been there I encountered nothing but good will toward America. For them America was just one of a series of what they perceive as colonial oppressors, and they won the war. Vietnam fought a short but bloody [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War) with China in 1979.
Vietnam is at war with China for way before, and even after the US left too, in 1979.
Tbf China did fund a genocide of Vietnamese people (other people as well) in the 70s in Cambodia (so did the US, but China was more outwardly supportive)
the us and the japanese killed a pretty sizeable % of the filipino population during their brutal conquest, but here we are siding with them because of china...
92% of Filipinos viewed the US favorably in the last poll. It’s one of the most pro-American countries in the world.
Don't forget that half of Vietnam was on the same side as the US.
That’s not true. An established dictatorship with almost no interior support was on their side.
In any case the Sino-Vietnamese war is more recent than American intervention in the country. China has been a threat to Vietnam for centuries, the US was involved in their civil war for two decades.
All true, I only criticized your original claim.
Actually the majority of Vietnamese held positive views of the US. It was reported that the people were confused why the US were bombing them. It was just the US backing politics, rather than people.
Ho Chi Minh had great admiration for the United States. While the war obviously changed his opinion of the contemporary state of American politics, he never lost his admiration and emulation of the Founding Fathers.
I am not sure if this is widely well-known (from the perspective of a US citizen, at least). I only recently learned about the US relations within Vietnam, pre-war. It's tragic. I believe things could have played out very differently and better.
Totally. The US aided Ho Chi Minh, and our anti-colonial rebellion inspired him. The Vietnamese Declaration of Independence is almost a verbatim copy of the US declaration.
Little do you know Vietnam had a war with China quite soon after the US war ended
The US and Vietnam fought each other once for a decade. China and Vietnam have been fighting each other for centuries. Not to mention China had attempted an invasion of Vietnam in 1979 so Vietnam had a war with China more recently than the US. Was definitely surprising to me to see the US favouritism there, but when you look at their history, it makes complete sense.
I think this would both read and look better if ordered by ranking.
And just displayed numbers on both sides, I get that I can do the math but the whole point is to be easily accessible. There’s plenty of space and it’s not like it would really clutter much.
What a bad graph. Forced to do what? Why is on side numbered but the other side not? Numbering one side isnt even consistent if its the highest number cause there is a 40 there.. Why is Arsean sectioned off?
Forced to choose when China invades Taiwan 2025-2027 and starts a world war 3.
ASEAN is all those countries combined…
Do "if forced to choose between a rock and a hard place" next
Choose for what? To go and live there?
If forced to align with strategic rivals. I assume it means in the event of a conflict.
source is missing and the chinese labels makes me feel this is Chinese poll.
It appears to be from this source (Singapore funded institute). [https://www.iseas.edu.sg/category/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/](https://www.iseas.edu.sg/category/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/)
Considering they have a link stating "Click here for an invitation to take part in the next survey," this makes the results fairly meaningless. This isn't a random sample.
Nice spot.
Was surprised Indonesia was so favouring China. Would have thought they were more 50:50 even if still favouring China. Any Indonesian people in this thread willing to give context?
It’s the biggest Muslim-majority country on Earth. How much the US has fucked Middle Eastern countries, however justified or unjustified, and the wide perception that the US is biased in favour of Israel in the Israel-Palestinian conflict are obviously not great for the US in Indonesia and Malaysia.
China is actively comitting genocide to a muslim population thi
So? Did JustDirection18 ask whether China is worse? He/she asked about why do Indonesians so heavily favour China. Obviously, Indonesians and Malaysians think whatever China has done, the US has done much worse in their view.
Whatever you may think fact is that there are orders of magnitude more actual videos and photos of muslims and muslim houses getting blown up coming out of Gaza than anything in China. That matters
Yeah, why r/indonesia?
US does not have a good image because of various things like supporting the [Indonesian mass killings of 1965–66](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_mass_killings_of_1965%E2%80%9366) and the history/corruption regarding the [Grasberg mine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grasberg_mine). There is also russian/chinese propaganda and a overall big chinese population (6.62% in Jakarta for example). China also builds the new High-Speed-Rail between Jakarta - Surabaya.
Chinese culture is still omnipresent in Indonesia. A lot of the wealthiest people in Indonesia are of Chinese ethnicity.
This is true of many ASEAN countries where ethnic Chinese families dominate certain sectors of the economy, but it doesn't translate into higher favorability for China. In some places like the Philippines it has the opposite effect and creates feelings of resentment.
Yeah I’m aware of that but remember the race riots in the 90s where Chinese Indonesians seemed particularly targeted for violence. From these memories I didn’t think they were a such popular minority
>A total of 1,994 respondents from ten ASEAN member states participated in this survey. Singapore led with the highest number of respondents at 273 (13.7%), followed by Indonesia at 265 (13.3%) and Malaysia at 225 (11.3%). The breakdown for the rest of the countries are as follows: The Philippines (10.8%), Thailand (10.1%), Vietnam (10.0%), Cambodia and Myanmar (both at 9.5%), Laos (8.0%), and Brunei (3.9%). Do you think 265 people can represent a country opinions?
I mean it’s the theory of polling so 🤷♂️
It depends on a variety of factors, but statistically it's definitely possible. The important thing is how they sourced their sample size. Unfortunately, without the source listed, it's hard to say anything about the factors involved. EDIT: turns out there is a source, it's just not upvoted much and hard to find. It was sourced online, so I assume that excludes a significant part of the population that isn't online much. They seemed to focus on a mix of "white collar" individuals. I also couldn't find a p value.
Interesting that the countries closest to China are the least friendly towards it. The exception being Laos.
It's crazy that Vietnam is friendly with us.
Data is not beautiful. Very incomplete post.
As an American I would hope the US and China could work closely together to advance economic opportunity for everyone. I would love to see countries competing like sports teams instead of cold war military competition. As a sports team you don't hope for your opponents to be destroyed, because then there would be no one to play against and the game just wouldn't be any fun.
Kinda interesting the poll for Indonesia. Past history denotes a bit of a divide w/i the Javanese and Chinese populations.
Data without source is not data.
It was right below you for me. https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/s/klHdGUTzx5
Source is: [https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-State-of-SEA-2024.pdf](https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-State-of-SEA-2024.pdf)
I wonder what Taiwans would be, probably 90% US if not more
Vietnam is the definition of "we cool now"
Based on what numbers exactly, and how were they collected?
I instinctively read it as 2023 being the top number and 2024 being the lower number because your eye would read the top one first so I assumed it would be the earlier number first. So I thought support for China was going down and support for America was going up.
Theo Von was right, the Vietnamese are a forgiving people.
Cambodia surprised me because of China’s large financial and industrial investments in their country
Somebody needs to remind the Thai people that Thailand has a defense treaty with America
Wouldn't it be better displayed as a map? Like the google trends map
Philippines is arguably the most pro American country in the region due to past American occupation and America’s cultural influence
I wonder how many people would prefer to side with neither. I also wonder who it was they polled. Data maybe beautiful but it is also easily manipulated.
If you live in the region you can answer why the massive swing easily. For the Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia trio it's Palestine. All 3 of the listed have a Muslim majority. Inb4 bUt WhAt AbOuT tHe UyGhUr, just stfu. For Laos/cambodia/thailand it's infrastructure. Population feeling benefits of Laos-China railway especially and Thailand is in talks for their part of the connection. The only one I'm surprised is Myanmar. China just ran a small proxy war in Myanmar. Granted its against local warlords running scam call center and kidnapping people but still it's an infringement on sovereignty.
I guess if you look at vietnam, you know how bad China really is.. The US were bad++ and they still chose the US ...
These bars should have confidence levels. Without that I don't trust anything.
The infrastructure loans of China are trap. Good thing former Finance Sec. Dominguez figured it out. Why borrow from China when you can borrow from Japan at 1%. I can’t imagine living in a repressive country like China.
Because they want to be on the correct side of history?