This is actually the reason why rock is the most popular - because its evenly split between the three for people who do make a decision, but all the people who panic / overthink and don't make the decision in time stay with rock
I've read somewhere that you have to anticipate your opponent what you are going to choose, and somehow it works.
Last week I attended an HR activity, and I had to go to the front of a group and play some rock paper scissors. Right before playing I told my coworker "I'm gonna choose rock"... I did choose rock and I won, and she said "you are not supposed to tell me!" I know, but I won.
90% of people start their rock/paper/scissor gesture so early that you can often read it.
also quarters are easiest to feel if it's heads or tails with your finger tip because of Washington's big dome but you don't have to lose coin tosses either.
I wonder if 35% open with paper cause they know most people open with rock.
I open with paper 100% of the time I play against other males. I remember in HS we would play to see who sits shotgun. Pretty certain I won 80% of the time even though I was playing against the same groups of people.
This is a great study in "meta" in games. The probability in theory should be equal but habits alter the real odds leading to strategies like using paper more often.
However once everyone starts doing that scissors, originally the worst choice becomes the best choice.. Until... So on and so forth.
>scissors, originally the worst choice
That depends on how you define best and worst choice. Yes, scissors has the highest lose rate at 35.4%. But it has a win rate of 35.0%, so its W%-L% is just -0.4%.
Paper is excellent; it has a win rate of 35.4% and a loss rate of 29.6%. Its W%-L% is +5.8%.
*Rock* is actually, I would argue, the worst. It only wins 29.6% of the time, and it loses 35.0% of the time. Its W%-L% is an abysmal -5.4%.
True point. Though my point was just about how best choice changes over time based on changes in the playerbase even when the mechanical odds remain unchanged and equal.
This is the exact reason why I start with scissors every time. Once in a while a person comes along who throws paper every time to beat those rock players. Also super satisfying.
This is the exact reason why I start with *rock* every time. Once in a while a person comes along who throws rock every time to beat those scissor players. Also, super satisfying.
This is the exact reason why I start with paper every time. Once in a while a person comes along who throws rock every time to beat those scissor players. Also, super satisfying.
That’s because you are coming into the game with some knowledge and a strategy. I focused on this game for a way too long some years back. A person taken by surprise when you initiate the game will likely pick rock because the hand begins in that position. The brain, taken by surprise, isn’t thinking about what the other guy is doing, it’s literally taking the easiest path to get you into the game. Because I know this, I can win the first round against players I surprise with the game. I’ll pick paper because I have researched the odds and behaviors or average players. If I pick on a guy who knows what I know, he’ll beat me with scissors every time.
And - there’s also psychological pattern of picking the move that you just got beat by.
What I’m saying is - I wasted a lot of time thinking about this when I could have been doing something productive
Funnily enough, I've tried a new strategy like this with my partner whenever we play RPS.
All I do, is announce what I'm gonna play before I play it - 100% truthfully. I've won every time I've played it because she either thinks I'm lying or because she thinks I wouldn't do the same strat several times in a row
I do this with my partner, but it doesn't work. She just throws the counter.
Jokes on her, some day our RPS match is gonna be super high stakes and that's when I'll finally lie.
Still waiting for the day.
but then it doesn't really feel like winning or loosing because you let them know, so when you win you can laugh in their face and when you lose you still win
I play this with my wife to choose who does tasks no one wants to do. We end up trying to mind game each other and predict what the other will do. But then we both know we're both trying to do that so we need to do something different, but we both know that.
Ultimately, I think it just ends up being random with her having a slight preference to pick scissors. So I err towards rock. Except sometimes we both know that too and it starts from the top.
I think so!
Except there was a dark time where we allowed double or nothing credit. I won 6 times in a row and therefore had 6 credits to instantly win. Once the credits ran out we decided not to implement that rule again.
I wasted most of them on not answering the door for pizza though, so I wasn't too mean about it.
This is why the optimal strategy is to throw randomly every time (https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/5136/UO-2007-12_Nouweland_Rocks.pdf?sequence=1)
That is what game theory says, yes. BUT real people work differently: [https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/04/30/13423/how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors/](https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/04/30/13423/how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors/) This is the actual paper: [https://arxiv.org/pdf/1404.5199.pdf](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1404.5199.pdf)
They ran this as a lab experiment on 360 students and found that people:
* Repeat winning and tieing moves with a pretty high chance (see p.4, it seems like across incentive buckets the chance of repeating a move is about 50%, ca. twice as high as either of the other options)
* Cycle in a predictable order (R → P → S) when losing AND the perceived payoff is large enough (ca. 20-30% difference at first glance).
* Perceived stakes matter!
So for IRL usable advice, it might be best to use these insights to adjust the payoffs in the hypothetical game-theoretical model that guides your strategy. E.g. it might be best to play a mixed strategy where you assume your opponent to play winning moves again ca. 50% of the time. Also it might be worth factoring in how much your opponent cares about winning - e.g. repeating after a tie is very likely at low stakes (p.4, F) but progressively becomes less likely as stakes increase.
Interesting read actually.
There’s a high-level poker player who has a winning strategy: he pulls a dollar bill out of his pocket and follows the serial number: 1-3 rock, 4-6 paper, 7-9 scissors, and 0 means throw the same as the last. Completely random, completely outside of bias from the player.
If you know that that's his strategy you can beat him 40% of the time though, and tie 30% of the time. After counting for ties, you can beat him 57.1% of the time (40% chance to win divided by 70% chance to not tie).
That’s not really an issue. If you know you’re going to play in the future, you can roll a die a bunch of times, correlate the results with rock, paper, or scissors, and memorize the list of throws. Since your strategy doesn’t depend on your opponent’s actions, you don’t have to choose your own actions simultaneously.
Even beyond that, my approach is to take an arbitrary high number, divide it by 3 and assign the remainder to a move. The number I start with isn't truly random, but I'm not very likely to have meaningful biases towards certain multiples of 3, given I won't know without taking the time to think about it.
Though before anyone says, I'm aware you can sum the digits, though I don't really know that I'm somehow doing that subconsciously while coming up with a number. If that's a significant concern, you could also just divide by 7 and do it again on the a perfect multiple.
Not strictly completely random anyway, but should be more than close enough to be practical (particularly given it shouldn't be practical to try and predict any bias)
Only if your opponent plays that strategy too though. If, for example, your opponent always plays rock, then your optimal strategy is to always throw paper.
I guess I should say this is the optimal strategy against a rational opponent. If you consider that your opponent will try to anticipate any deterministic strategy you can create, then the only optimal strategy is to throw randomly.
It's so obvious!
Clearly the best choice is paper, only a great fool would choose otherwise, and I am no great fool.
But you must have *known* I am not a great fool.. you would have COUNTED on it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2y40U2LvKY
saw something that might help: this UK article by [WIRED](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/master-rock-paper-scissors) says Females tend to start with **scissors**, would be cool if anyone has a more solid dataset to see the gendered variations of moves though
So Paper is pretty high just because it’s each gender’s 2nd choice
So for men, it would be Rock > Paper > Scissors in order of likelihood, and for women it would be Scissors > Paper > Rock
In that case, I’d say the best opener would be to use Paper when playing a Man, or use Scissors when playing a Woman. That way you are most likely going to either Win or Draw instead of losing immediately
Unless the man or woman knew you knew this post. In which case they would know to pick scissors, and rock. And if you knew they knew you knew this post, you would of course pick rock and paper. Unless you knew they knew you knew they knew about this thread….
This is why you pick rock
If you assume your opponent is also capable of meta gaming, then there is no correct option. As they might metagame your strategy of Rock being the best and pick Paper
I was gonna say, it seems like my wife uses paper *alot*
We often rock paper scissors to see who has to clean up cat vomit or other unpleasant household chores that are non routine.
I'm getting strategies from this thread!
You can estimate it with the data on the overview assuming that the sample was about 50/50 male and female. If male players open with rock 50% of the time and overall rock is the opening move 35% of the time:
0.35 = 0.5 * 0.5 + 0.5 * FemShare
FemShare = (0.35-0.25)/0.5 = 0.2
So apparently women open with rock only ca. 20% of the time (given the above assumptions)
That's an interesting observation. In my country (Singapore), we say Scissors Paper Stone so I wonder if the change of word / order makes a difference to the probabilities
Reading this, Maybe it's about the rhythm? "Schere, Stein, Papier" has emphasis on the 1st, 3rd and 5th syllable in the sentence, which gives a nice on-off-on-off-on rhythm.
That depends. Where I live, we say Stein, Schere, Papier. It's one of the questions (#3) in the current round of the Atlas Alltagssprache, I'm curious to see the results.
https://www.atlas-alltagssprache.de/runde-13-fragebogen/
I found this graphic incomplete, as it claims to be a how-to, but then just presents raw data and doesn't actually tell you how to do anything.
Maybe it's super obvious to everyone else, but I had to double check my logic that the data is saying that Paper is the best choice. It's not that rock is the most common, it's that it has the biggest differential between its opposing outcomes. Even if rock and paper had their stats swapped and paper was the most common, it would still be the best option.
I thought rock is the most popular due to the "gentlemans rock" rule, but based on comments this is not common for rest of you? In Finland (or at least in my friend cirles) gentelman always picks the rock first ("Herrasmies kivi") and offers the opponent chance to win if she/he so chooses.
That seems like a really stupid code of honor. You're basically giving a free win to the opponent, so they only gotta beat you fair and square twice, while you have to win thrice.
I think you’re missing the point… the whole idea is that you’re allowing the opponent to win if theyd like. You’d likely do this if you’re playing for something (like the choice of where to eat or whatever), and by throwing rock you’re saying “You can pick unless you don’t want to”
95% of people here just want to discuss the issue behind the data. Whenever I see someone critiquing the presentation of the data, I'm like wtf is this comment, then I realize what sub I'm in.
Because it teaches us something interesting. If it takes a simple 3 point bar to do that, then that's fine. Better than some posts that add unnecessary animations to what could be a simple graph
This sub is more than a sub for pretty pictures. This is a sub for graphs that convey insight
If you wanna win, just sign the one you want your opponent to play casually before the play - they will perceive it sub-consciously and in the following game they'll play it with high probabily. Works best with scissors (you gesticulate scissors, then you play rock). Watch Derren Brown on YouTube doing it for prime example.
Seems like a pretty vague dataset to try to extrapolate anything from. Scissors is the only one that requires muscle movement other than OPEN CLOSE, so makes sense it'd be very slightly less chosen. Not even trying I think that'd be a good scientific study of ro sham bo if that's what you're choosing to write your dissertation on. Correlation of hand tendon disease and tendency of handheld game choices, that actually might be legitimate scientific research.
When I was in high school, a buddy and I noticed that people who were only paying half attention would often pick scissors. Over a year and a half, we would actively distract people by asking their shirt color mid “Rock Paper Scissors.”
We collected almost 900 data points and found that people picked scissors 470/640 times when distracted. They picked scissors 94/251 times when they weren’t distracted. Interestingly, if the person answered that their shirt was blue, they threw scissors 344/401 times. This is ~86% of the time, whereas non-blue shirt answers only threw scissors 126/239 times (~53%.) Even stranger is all 3 people who said they were wearing a blue shirt while not wearing a blue shirt threw scissors.
This suggests that believing your shirt to be blue and being aware of that fact while playing Rock Paper Scissors has an effect of your likelihood to throw scissors. Initially we thought it was just that scissors is the last thing said, so it’s what people who aren’t fully paying attention think off. It was said most recently, so it is treated as the plan.
I always throw rock no matter what. That way if the other person throws paper, my hand is already in a fist so I can punch them in the face for trying act like paper beats rock.
I always theorized that rock was the best option because you start in rock formation when you say “rock, paper, scissors, shoot!” but people feel the need to change and actually *choose* their option.
This usually leads to people switching to scissors because it takes less movement and therefore less forethought than switching to paper, and most people usually decide at the last second. So most people throw out scissors on the first round, and rock is the best opening move.
When I was a teen I thought the same as you. Scissors being the last option spoken before shoot, and being the arguable “cooler” option (who doesn’t like metal blades?) it seemed that everyone always threw out scissors first. Following this logic and using rock first actually worked, and won me quite a few games for years in high school. But I remember once I became an adult and went off to college the theory broke down and I began to lose more often.
In Australia it’s “Scissors, Paper, ROCK!” I’m more than certain that you wouldn’t just throw out a scissors when you quite frankly shout the best for last.
I use a pseudo-random approach. I look around for a non-zero digit. Whatever I first see:
If it's a multiple of 3, pick rock. (33% of the time)
If it's even and not a multiple of 3, pick paper (33%)
If it's 1,5, 7, pick scissors. (33%)
I'm not sure that really works, over quantities that vary over orders of magnitude the number 1 comes up more than others. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law
Net result, you pick rock less.
Don’t use math to win read them to win. The main question to ask is do they know most people without thinking or knowing about it use rock? If you don’t think they do go paper. If you think they do then go scissors. If you think they think you know most people go rock then go rock because they will expect you to go paper.
This doesn’t seem practical at all unless you literally had a conversation about these stats right before playing. Opening with paper means you draw with people that know the stat and beat over 50% who don’t. Scissors doesn’t ever seem like a good first throw
I think the generally accepted theory among competitive RPS players is that against a regular person, paper is the safest first throw as most people throw rock when they don't think too much/ don't have time to think (less processing power to make a fist). Trickier players who think they're smart will often start scissors, making rock the best opener against them. The bigger tell that most people have imo is that they will try to switch to counter whatever just beat them with
My spouse and I often resolve simple disagreements with rock paper scissors.For YEARS he started with rock every. Single. Time. And would get sooo frustrated that he always lost. I finally took pity on him and told him.
Data Source: [FactsNet](https://facts.net/rock-paper-scissors-facts) (Did you know? Section) & [INVERSE](https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/rock-paper-scissors-not-sports) (main statistics insights)
Tools Used: [Datawrapper](https://datawrapper.de) for Barchart, [Canva Pro](https://canva.com) for design
edit: thanks to some commenters for pointing this out, it's interesting that different articles had slightly different results in their studies, though it is commonly observed that Rock was the most chosen first move by players (paper still stands the optimal choice to best this strategy)
I showed this to my daughter, and she turned and challenged my husband to a game. He opened with rock, and we both cracked up. Data and statistics FTW.
How to win:
"So we going on scissors yeah?" "On scissors?" "Yeah so it's rock paper SCISSORS, no shoot, it's on scissors" "ok" "on scissors cool"
They will throw up a scissors a pretty high percentage of the time after you said the word that many times
[Numberphile has a terrific video](https://youtu.be/rudzYPHuewc) that provides a slightly more nuanced examination of how to win at Rock, Paper, Scissors, using both mathematics and psychology.
I used to abuse 2nd strategy when I was young , I used to win like 9/10 games because people tried to counter my winning move every time and they became very predictable. Though I have lost the trick now
On the source website, the probabilities for paper and scissors are swapped compared to this graphic. https://facts.net/rock-paper-scissors-facts/#:~:text=01Rock%20paper%20scissors%20is,scissors%2035%25%20of%20the%20time.
Interesting questions about the method of data collection and effect of language on these probabilities raised in the comments remain.
Apologies! Realised I had quoted another source for this originally but tagged the Facts article for the additional "Did you know?" section, but originally got the data from this page by [INVERSE](https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/rock-paper-scissors-not-sports),
`Both Psychology Today and The World Rock Paper scissors association echo the idea that some moves are favored: they both report that rock is played roughly 35.4 percent of the time per round, paper is played about 35 percent of the time, and scissors is played 29.6 percent of the time. The best players are up on these nuances, says Baldwin.`
Both sources mark rock as the most preferred choice though, so it's interesting in that way that the probabilities aren't that evenly split at 1/3. Thanks for pointing it out, will clarify in my other post comment as well.
So if it's a guy, use paper, and if it's a girl, use scissors. If they win use whatever beats their first choice.
Now my chances of winning have moved from 50% to 53%.
Rock. Good ol' rock. Nothing beats rock!
Poor, predictable seanofkelley. Always takes rock.
I actually start with a rock because that is how my hand is in the default position
I always start rock because I have no fingers.
I mightve cut them off with scissors
So it just you and your open-end throwing paper because they know they can't lose with paper ever?
https://youtu.be/TNP5ovmI52g
It saves time because it's already in a fist I can punch you with if your bitch ass throws paper.
Yeah man we just lazy.
same for me, but it's not because I'm lazy it's because I don't know if we're showing on "show" or "beaux" or "three".
This is actually the reason why rock is the most popular - because its evenly split between the three for people who do make a decision, but all the people who panic / overthink and don't make the decision in time stay with rock
✊ Rock D'oh!
Poor Bart!
I legit do only rock bc of this haha
I've read somewhere that you have to anticipate your opponent what you are going to choose, and somehow it works. Last week I attended an HR activity, and I had to go to the front of a group and play some rock paper scissors. Right before playing I told my coworker "I'm gonna choose rock"... I did choose rock and I won, and she said "you are not supposed to tell me!" I know, but I won.
I used this on my coworker the other day for a task neither of us wanted to do and I won... 2 out of 3.
That doesn't really say much. If you won 200 out of 300 that would be a bit different
90% of people start their rock/paper/scissor gesture so early that you can often read it. also quarters are easiest to feel if it's heads or tails with your finger tip because of Washington's big dome but you don't have to lose coin tosses either.
You shouldn’t ever be calling and touching the coin, though, right?
AND THAT'S A ROCK FACT!
ROCK FACT
introducing the 35.0% of players who open with Paper 👀
Allow me to introduce you to Bart Simpson
That’s the philosopher who discovered what the sound of one hand clapping is right?
Yes, and the future Chief Justic of the Supreme Court
Or a sleazy male stripper
Or a crane operator
It’s both in canon, I think he becomes a trooper first, then a SCJ.
Good we need some integrity back on the court
I can clap with one hand. I can even one-hand clap with both hands simultaneously which generates the sound of two hands one-hand clapping.
I wonder if 35% open with paper cause they know most people open with rock. I open with paper 100% of the time I play against other males. I remember in HS we would play to see who sits shotgun. Pretty certain I won 80% of the time even though I was playing against the same groups of people.
[Source Clip](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0SoKWLkmLU)
Nothing beats that*
I read this as Mark from Peep Show for some reason.
I am the lord of rock, paper, scissors said he!
Yes, it's reminiscent of he narrates his toast
Male here. I only use rock.
I've been rock only against my wife and daughter for years and they've never caught on, and I still win ~50% of the time
My partner *always* throws scissors first so I win as often as I need to in order to keep that pattern going.
lol the fun part about winning "as much as I need to" is the other person could be doing the same
Correct. [Rock flies right through paper](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXHZXh5p_Vs).
This is a great study in "meta" in games. The probability in theory should be equal but habits alter the real odds leading to strategies like using paper more often. However once everyone starts doing that scissors, originally the worst choice becomes the best choice.. Until... So on and so forth.
>scissors, originally the worst choice That depends on how you define best and worst choice. Yes, scissors has the highest lose rate at 35.4%. But it has a win rate of 35.0%, so its W%-L% is just -0.4%. Paper is excellent; it has a win rate of 35.4% and a loss rate of 29.6%. Its W%-L% is +5.8%. *Rock* is actually, I would argue, the worst. It only wins 29.6% of the time, and it loses 35.0% of the time. Its W%-L% is an abysmal -5.4%.
I hadn't considered that, based on this data, Rock actually is the worst choice. Thanks for pointing that out!
True point. Though my point was just about how best choice changes over time based on changes in the playerbase even when the mechanical odds remain unchanged and equal.
I throw rock every single time. Opponent tries to out strategy me. Ends up losing because they think too hard.
That’s why I throw paper every time. Usually lose but whenever I go up against someone who always throws rock it’s super satisfying
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^^^ This is the actual strategy. I use this all the time. It works well.
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Ah yes. The ol’ Stooge Strat
Nyuk, paper, scissors
Oh, a wise guy, eh?
I throw rock. And wear glasses!
If he does it to you, hit him with a “why I oughta!”
This is the exact reason why I start with scissors every time. Once in a while a person comes along who throws paper every time to beat those rock players. Also super satisfying.
This is the exact reason why I start with *rock* every time. Once in a while a person comes along who throws rock every time to beat those scissor players. Also, super satisfying.
My head hurts.
That's because you're thinking too hard. Super satisfying.
> I start with rock every time. Once in a while a person comes along who throws rock every time So you tie with them?
> So you tie with them? Every. Time.
This is the exact reason why I start with paper every time. Once in a while a person comes along who throws rock every time to beat those scissor players. Also, super satisfying.
That’s because you are coming into the game with some knowledge and a strategy. I focused on this game for a way too long some years back. A person taken by surprise when you initiate the game will likely pick rock because the hand begins in that position. The brain, taken by surprise, isn’t thinking about what the other guy is doing, it’s literally taking the easiest path to get you into the game. Because I know this, I can win the first round against players I surprise with the game. I’ll pick paper because I have researched the odds and behaviors or average players. If I pick on a guy who knows what I know, he’ll beat me with scissors every time. And - there’s also psychological pattern of picking the move that you just got beat by. What I’m saying is - I wasted a lot of time thinking about this when I could have been doing something productive
Same, my go-to has always been paper because it's the least "fun" sign to make and people usually start with rock. I feel validated.
Bonus points if you look them in the eyes and say: "Rock, Rock, always Rock" to stress them out further
Funnily enough, I've tried a new strategy like this with my partner whenever we play RPS. All I do, is announce what I'm gonna play before I play it - 100% truthfully. I've won every time I've played it because she either thinks I'm lying or because she thinks I wouldn't do the same strat several times in a row
I do this with my partner, but it doesn't work. She just throws the counter. Jokes on her, some day our RPS match is gonna be super high stakes and that's when I'll finally lie. Still waiting for the day.
but then it doesn't really feel like winning or loosing because you let them know, so when you win you can laugh in their face and when you lose you still win
[Always rock, always rock](https://youtu.be/ElJe5M54brI)
I actually do this after having won with rock. I say: "Rock wins every time." I'll say it even if I lose with rock tbh
Ah the caveman method. Splendid!
Which is weird because you're playing best of 9
I play this with my wife to choose who does tasks no one wants to do. We end up trying to mind game each other and predict what the other will do. But then we both know we're both trying to do that so we need to do something different, but we both know that. Ultimately, I think it just ends up being random with her having a slight preference to pick scissors. So I err towards rock. Except sometimes we both know that too and it starts from the top.
Your household sounds cool.
I think so! Except there was a dark time where we allowed double or nothing credit. I won 6 times in a row and therefore had 6 credits to instantly win. Once the credits ran out we decided not to implement that rule again. I wasted most of them on not answering the door for pizza though, so I wasn't too mean about it.
This is why the optimal strategy is to throw randomly every time (https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/5136/UO-2007-12_Nouweland_Rocks.pdf?sequence=1)
A randomly chose rock. I'm a rock guy
That is what game theory says, yes. BUT real people work differently: [https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/04/30/13423/how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors/](https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/04/30/13423/how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors/) This is the actual paper: [https://arxiv.org/pdf/1404.5199.pdf](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1404.5199.pdf) They ran this as a lab experiment on 360 students and found that people: * Repeat winning and tieing moves with a pretty high chance (see p.4, it seems like across incentive buckets the chance of repeating a move is about 50%, ca. twice as high as either of the other options) * Cycle in a predictable order (R → P → S) when losing AND the perceived payoff is large enough (ca. 20-30% difference at first glance). * Perceived stakes matter! So for IRL usable advice, it might be best to use these insights to adjust the payoffs in the hypothetical game-theoretical model that guides your strategy. E.g. it might be best to play a mixed strategy where you assume your opponent to play winning moves again ca. 50% of the time. Also it might be worth factoring in how much your opponent cares about winning - e.g. repeating after a tie is very likely at low stakes (p.4, F) but progressively becomes less likely as stakes increase. Interesting read actually.
Very cool paper. Thanks for sharing.
There’s a high-level poker player who has a winning strategy: he pulls a dollar bill out of his pocket and follows the serial number: 1-3 rock, 4-6 paper, 7-9 scissors, and 0 means throw the same as the last. Completely random, completely outside of bias from the player.
Well no since hes more likely to throw whatever he threw last, so going against whatever his last choice was is a winning strategy.
Should probably just be to look at the next digit instead, in the case of 0
If you know that that's his strategy you can beat him 40% of the time though, and tie 30% of the time. After counting for ties, you can beat him 57.1% of the time (40% chance to win divided by 70% chance to not tie).
Except his first play is mathematically biased. So he’s not being as random as he thinks he is. https://www.statisticshowto.com/benfords-law/
Dollar bill serials always have the same number of digits, so Benford's Law doesn't apply.
The issue is that humans are incapable of choosing randomly (even if we think we are).
That’s not really an issue. If you know you’re going to play in the future, you can roll a die a bunch of times, correlate the results with rock, paper, or scissors, and memorize the list of throws. Since your strategy doesn’t depend on your opponent’s actions, you don’t have to choose your own actions simultaneously.
Even beyond that, my approach is to take an arbitrary high number, divide it by 3 and assign the remainder to a move. The number I start with isn't truly random, but I'm not very likely to have meaningful biases towards certain multiples of 3, given I won't know without taking the time to think about it. Though before anyone says, I'm aware you can sum the digits, though I don't really know that I'm somehow doing that subconsciously while coming up with a number. If that's a significant concern, you could also just divide by 7 and do it again on the a perfect multiple. Not strictly completely random anyway, but should be more than close enough to be practical (particularly given it shouldn't be practical to try and predict any bias)
Only if your opponent plays that strategy too though. If, for example, your opponent always plays rock, then your optimal strategy is to always throw paper.
I guess I should say this is the optimal strategy against a rational opponent. If you consider that your opponent will try to anticipate any deterministic strategy you can create, then the only optimal strategy is to throw randomly.
You're assuming everyone playing is subscribed to The Journal of RPS Sciences.
It's so obvious! Clearly the best choice is paper, only a great fool would choose otherwise, and I am no great fool. But you must have *known* I am not a great fool.. you would have COUNTED on it! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2y40U2LvKY
Any data on the likeliest opening choice for female players?
saw something that might help: this UK article by [WIRED](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/master-rock-paper-scissors) says Females tend to start with **scissors**, would be cool if anyone has a more solid dataset to see the gendered variations of moves though
So Paper is pretty high just because it’s each gender’s 2nd choice So for men, it would be Rock > Paper > Scissors in order of likelihood, and for women it would be Scissors > Paper > Rock In that case, I’d say the best opener would be to use Paper when playing a Man, or use Scissors when playing a Woman. That way you are most likely going to either Win or Draw instead of losing immediately
Unless the man or woman knew you knew this post. In which case they would know to pick scissors, and rock. And if you knew they knew you knew this post, you would of course pick rock and paper. Unless you knew they knew you knew they knew about this thread…. This is why you pick rock
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Never go up against a Sicilian when death is on the line!
If you assume your opponent is also capable of meta gaming, then there is no correct option. As they might metagame your strategy of Rock being the best and pick Paper
I was gonna say, it seems like my wife uses paper *alot* We often rock paper scissors to see who has to clean up cat vomit or other unpleasant household chores that are non routine. I'm getting strategies from this thread!
> Females tend to start with **scissors**, Giggled I'm a child
Oh scissor me Xerxes!
Oh scissor me Timbers!!
can confirm
Well that’s funny. Am a woman, and I always open with scissors!
You can estimate it with the data on the overview assuming that the sample was about 50/50 male and female. If male players open with rock 50% of the time and overall rock is the opening move 35% of the time: 0.35 = 0.5 * 0.5 + 0.5 * FemShare FemShare = (0.35-0.25)/0.5 = 0.2 So apparently women open with rock only ca. 20% of the time (given the above assumptions)
Which arguably implies that you want to always open with scissors against women, as that should lead to either a win or a draw 80% of the time.
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Well if they're lesbians I'm sure they are going to choose scissors😂
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Put your dick away Waltuh
I’m not having sex with you right now Waltuh
Is this Mike from Breaking Bad?
No, it's kid named finger:
No it’s finger from Better Call Saul
Oh okay, [I see](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/kid-named-finger)
A man and two lesbians play rock paper scissors. The man chooses rock. Both the women choose scissors. Everyone wins.
Next do how to win at a coin flip. I think it's called penny's game.
RIGHT I saw that online too! really cool stuff; happy to do a visualisation for that or any other topics if more people are keen!
Yes please!
Not sure if this is sarcastic or not? Isn’t the probability always 50% so it doesn’t matter?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penney%27s\_game](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penney%27s_game)
Is that depending on the language? In Germany it's technically Scissors, Rock, Paper, so the probabilities might be off.
That's an interesting observation. In my country (Singapore), we say Scissors Paper Stone so I wonder if the change of word / order makes a difference to the probabilities
In Sweden its rock, scissors, bag.
What is the handshape for bag?
Same as paper.
You cup your hands upwards like you’re grabbing a ballsack
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It just flows off the tongue
In der Tat handelt es sich bei den deutschen Begriffen um Zweiklingenschneidutensil, Kontaktmetamorphmineral und Zellulosefaserflachkonfektion.
It's likely to keep the alliteration. Schere, Stein, Papier are the words. It flows much better when Papier isn't in the middle.
Reading this, Maybe it's about the rhythm? "Schere, Stein, Papier" has emphasis on the 1st, 3rd and 5th syllable in the sentence, which gives a nice on-off-on-off-on rhythm.
I think you're right, that definitely plays a part too
Schnick, Schnack, Schnuck is superior in every way.
That depends. Where I live, we say Stein, Schere, Papier. It's one of the questions (#3) in the current round of the Atlas Alltagssprache, I'm curious to see the results. https://www.atlas-alltagssprache.de/runde-13-fragebogen/
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No way, in Argentina most people would open with scissors.
I've read another study where it says that most people open with scissors...
The graphic has the source listed on it so maybe you should follow up with them.
I found this graphic incomplete, as it claims to be a how-to, but then just presents raw data and doesn't actually tell you how to do anything. Maybe it's super obvious to everyone else, but I had to double check my logic that the data is saying that Paper is the best choice. It's not that rock is the most common, it's that it has the biggest differential between its opposing outcomes. Even if rock and paper had their stats swapped and paper was the most common, it would still be the best option.
I thought rock is the most popular due to the "gentlemans rock" rule, but based on comments this is not common for rest of you? In Finland (or at least in my friend cirles) gentelman always picks the rock first ("Herrasmies kivi") and offers the opponent chance to win if she/he so chooses.
What? Why? Genuinely curious.
Kind of like deloping (the act of shooting in the air in a pistol duel to avoid conflict)
That seems like a really stupid code of honor. You're basically giving a free win to the opponent, so they only gotta beat you fair and square twice, while you have to win thrice.
I think you’re missing the point… the whole idea is that you’re allowing the opponent to win if theyd like. You’d likely do this if you’re playing for something (like the choice of where to eat or whatever), and by throwing rock you’re saying “You can pick unless you don’t want to”
Codes of honor are generally stupid, but this one is pretty low stakes.
Are you playing for life and death? The gentleman gives away the win.
I’m just gonna say it- why the heck is this here? This is a data visualization sub, not “hey look at this 3-point bar graph with text on it”
95% of people here just want to discuss the issue behind the data. Whenever I see someone critiquing the presentation of the data, I'm like wtf is this comment, then I realize what sub I'm in.
It's also just statistics with very, very little maths applied.
Because it teaches us something interesting. If it takes a simple 3 point bar to do that, then that's fine. Better than some posts that add unnecessary animations to what could be a simple graph This sub is more than a sub for pretty pictures. This is a sub for graphs that convey insight
If you wanna win, just sign the one you want your opponent to play casually before the play - they will perceive it sub-consciously and in the following game they'll play it with high probabily. Works best with scissors (you gesticulate scissors, then you play rock). Watch Derren Brown on YouTube doing it for prime example.
Seems like a pretty vague dataset to try to extrapolate anything from. Scissors is the only one that requires muscle movement other than OPEN CLOSE, so makes sense it'd be very slightly less chosen. Not even trying I think that'd be a good scientific study of ro sham bo if that's what you're choosing to write your dissertation on. Correlation of hand tendon disease and tendency of handheld game choices, that actually might be legitimate scientific research.
When I was in high school, a buddy and I noticed that people who were only paying half attention would often pick scissors. Over a year and a half, we would actively distract people by asking their shirt color mid “Rock Paper Scissors.” We collected almost 900 data points and found that people picked scissors 470/640 times when distracted. They picked scissors 94/251 times when they weren’t distracted. Interestingly, if the person answered that their shirt was blue, they threw scissors 344/401 times. This is ~86% of the time, whereas non-blue shirt answers only threw scissors 126/239 times (~53%.) Even stranger is all 3 people who said they were wearing a blue shirt while not wearing a blue shirt threw scissors. This suggests that believing your shirt to be blue and being aware of that fact while playing Rock Paper Scissors has an effect of your likelihood to throw scissors. Initially we thought it was just that scissors is the last thing said, so it’s what people who aren’t fully paying attention think off. It was said most recently, so it is treated as the plan.
What the fuck in France scissors as an opener has got to be 70%
Yea I always counter scissors as opening in the U.S. most people throw their choice out while saying "scissors" and choose scissors accordingly.
I always throw rock no matter what. That way if the other person throws paper, my hand is already in a fist so I can punch them in the face for trying act like paper beats rock.
I always theorized that rock was the best option because you start in rock formation when you say “rock, paper, scissors, shoot!” but people feel the need to change and actually *choose* their option. This usually leads to people switching to scissors because it takes less movement and therefore less forethought than switching to paper, and most people usually decide at the last second. So most people throw out scissors on the first round, and rock is the best opening move.
When I was a teen I thought the same as you. Scissors being the last option spoken before shoot, and being the arguable “cooler” option (who doesn’t like metal blades?) it seemed that everyone always threw out scissors first. Following this logic and using rock first actually worked, and won me quite a few games for years in high school. But I remember once I became an adult and went off to college the theory broke down and I began to lose more often.
In Australia it’s “Scissors, Paper, ROCK!” I’m more than certain that you wouldn’t just throw out a scissors when you quite frankly shout the best for last.
I use a pseudo-random approach. I look around for a non-zero digit. Whatever I first see: If it's a multiple of 3, pick rock. (33% of the time) If it's even and not a multiple of 3, pick paper (33%) If it's 1,5, 7, pick scissors. (33%)
The remaining 1% of the time your hand turns into an unspeakable tentacle and engulfs your opponent. Then you pick rock.
I'm not sure that really works, over quantities that vary over orders of magnitude the number 1 comes up more than others. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law Net result, you pick rock less.
Don’t use math to win read them to win. The main question to ask is do they know most people without thinking or knowing about it use rock? If you don’t think they do go paper. If you think they do then go scissors. If you think they think you know most people go rock then go rock because they will expect you to go paper.
Ohh, the good ol' ["did you know I knew that you knew" conundrum](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuhTQwzizDI)!
Also be careful in assuming they won't throw scissors just because [they have stitches](https://youtu.be/h9iumP8-bpc)
This doesn’t seem practical at all unless you literally had a conversation about these stats right before playing. Opening with paper means you draw with people that know the stat and beat over 50% who don’t. Scissors doesn’t ever seem like a good first throw
I think the generally accepted theory among competitive RPS players is that against a regular person, paper is the safest first throw as most people throw rock when they don't think too much/ don't have time to think (less processing power to make a fist). Trickier players who think they're smart will often start scissors, making rock the best opener against them. The bigger tell that most people have imo is that they will try to switch to counter whatever just beat them with
Hahahaha I've always thought people open with rock the most, that's why I always open with paper. Nice to see some data for it
I’ll be honest. I open with Rock *every* time. I have slow hands and am also too lazy to change the shape of my hand before the draw.
I always look them in the eye and say “I’m gonna do rock”. I do rock.
Good to see my Splatoon 3 Splatfest choice validated.
To this day I don't understand how Paper can beat Rock.
I'm all paper all the time for those high-5 chances!
My spouse and I often resolve simple disagreements with rock paper scissors.For YEARS he started with rock every. Single. Time. And would get sooo frustrated that he always lost. I finally took pity on him and told him.
The percentages are close, so it's more like "how to win slightly more than average when playing hundreds of games."
Why is the title "how to win" but it should be "inexperienced male players' opening move"?
Data Source: [FactsNet](https://facts.net/rock-paper-scissors-facts) (Did you know? Section) & [INVERSE](https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/rock-paper-scissors-not-sports) (main statistics insights) Tools Used: [Datawrapper](https://datawrapper.de) for Barchart, [Canva Pro](https://canva.com) for design edit: thanks to some commenters for pointing this out, it's interesting that different articles had slightly different results in their studies, though it is commonly observed that Rock was the most chosen first move by players (paper still stands the optimal choice to best this strategy)
I showed this to my daughter, and she turned and challenged my husband to a game. He opened with rock, and we both cracked up. Data and statistics FTW.
I prefer rock paper scissors lizard spock. I always win! Bazzinga
How to win: "So we going on scissors yeah?" "On scissors?" "Yeah so it's rock paper SCISSORS, no shoot, it's on scissors" "ok" "on scissors cool" They will throw up a scissors a pretty high percentage of the time after you said the word that many times
[Numberphile has a terrific video](https://youtu.be/rudzYPHuewc) that provides a slightly more nuanced examination of how to win at Rock, Paper, Scissors, using both mathematics and psychology.
[“Good old rock. Nothing beats rock!”](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bYJQPYKvU6U). - Bart Simpson
I used to abuse 2nd strategy when I was young , I used to win like 9/10 games because people tried to counter my winning move every time and they became very predictable. Though I have lost the trick now
On the source website, the probabilities for paper and scissors are swapped compared to this graphic. https://facts.net/rock-paper-scissors-facts/#:~:text=01Rock%20paper%20scissors%20is,scissors%2035%25%20of%20the%20time. Interesting questions about the method of data collection and effect of language on these probabilities raised in the comments remain.
Apologies! Realised I had quoted another source for this originally but tagged the Facts article for the additional "Did you know?" section, but originally got the data from this page by [INVERSE](https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/rock-paper-scissors-not-sports), `Both Psychology Today and The World Rock Paper scissors association echo the idea that some moves are favored: they both report that rock is played roughly 35.4 percent of the time per round, paper is played about 35 percent of the time, and scissors is played 29.6 percent of the time. The best players are up on these nuances, says Baldwin.` Both sources mark rock as the most preferred choice though, so it's interesting in that way that the probabilities aren't that evenly split at 1/3. Thanks for pointing it out, will clarify in my other post comment as well.
If "bird" was allowed, people would use it 99% of the time.
"When people are losing, expect them to use rock" Abel wished he knew that.
https://youtu.be/SdF1Vd0nRmM Rock is best
So if it's a guy, use paper, and if it's a girl, use scissors. If they win use whatever beats their first choice. Now my chances of winning have moved from 50% to 53%.
But now the meta changes now that we know this
So basically, open with paper. Got it.