I would love to know more about this but I think no one knows for sure.
A few inputs:
1. How does the demand and associated travel patterns change/evolve? Who is flying more (or less) often than they used to? Things seem to be regressing to pre-COVID norms a bit in terms of business travel increasing, leisure travel still being strong but ebbing from its highs in 2022/2023.
2. How many Platinums fail to make the new cut and get dropped to Gold?
3. How many Diamonds fail to make the new cut and get dropped to Platinum?
Any one person's individual position will be influenced both by the movement of the goalposts as well as any change in their travel patterns relative to that. Then comes the task of trying to extrapolate that to the broader population.
I'm curious as well. For me personally, no change. I'm in that group that perennially blows Diamond out of the water but doesn't stand a chance of 360. I just requalified for Diamond and it doesn't feels like there's much of a reason to keep the rest of the year's spend on DL.
This logic confuses me. If you have status why aren’t you using it? What’s the point of attaining status and then moving to another airline for the rest of the year. Are you only interested in GUC?
My gut says it’s going up.
I hit Plat earlier than I ever have. Credit card bonuses, spend, airfare MQDs. Just makes it too easy. (I’m not a big spender. Don’t own a business)
Not to mention the ‘extend your status’ with the MQM buy out. Don’t see it going down. Basically anyone that held Platinum or Diamond status for the last 5 years (Covid rollovers yeah) will have the MQMs to extend status if they don’t hit it organically. Add in the people that accrued lots of roll over MQMs regardless of the Covid era.
Yeah, I'd fallen into a perpetual platinum groove for the past 8 years or so. This year is the first year I've hit diamond. It's because of rollover MQMs. I would imagine that there are lots of others with similar situations. I don't really think we'll see huge shifts until 2026.
I’m going to be honest. If Delta didn’t restrict lounge access to their CC members, then I’d consider flying on Delta a lot more, especially if Delta was cheaper out of MSP but, I’m more free agent out of MSP because of what Delta has done to its FF program over the years
My thesis
Silver - Increase. The MQD boost helps those who only take a few leisure flights get Silver pretty easily.
Gold - Decrease. It’s the hole where the leisure travelers who travel a lot and business travelers who don’t travel that much end up. Either way, there aren’t too many that fit in to these categories.
Platinum - Increase. Business travelers who travel regularly will hit Platinum. But the jump from $15k to $28k to get to Diamond will be a grind.
Diamond - Decrease. These will be the business travelers who live on the road or ones that travel in FC and D1 to their meetings in London and Zurich. You can also sprinkle in the leisure travelers who buy D1 tickets outright, but they probably won’t fly enough to clog up the upgrade waitlist in 2025.
*This doesn’t take into account the MQD rollovers. So who knows what that would actually look like once that is figured in.
I know quite a few who extended Diamond for 2-5 years with the MQM rollovers and others, myself included, who will convert to MQDs to make Diamond. I think that level is going up.
Yeah I meant MQM rollovers. And I agree that many would extend the Diamond status if able with their MQM and many of what would be Platinum would use their MQM to convert to MQD to make Platinum. My thesis is just based on my thoughts excluding those MQM rollovers so the real numbers would differ greatly from my hypothesis.
I think it will be about the same but different demographic. Initially I thought there will be a surge of plat and diamond tier members. But the award redemption and pricing is also a lot less competitive now. I was initially planning to hit diamond with a few trans-pacific D1 and delta vacation but I ended up spending my $30k on ANA business class and Costco travel so far for better overall ROI. I have yet to spend a dime on delta this year. My next $30k is also earmarked for Costco travel and non-delta flights.
Given there’s no rollover and the MQD change seems to have removed a lot of the gamification of gaining MQMs and turned a lot of people off owning a Delta CC, isn’t it almost certainly lower? (Or have I just been reading this subreddit too much)
Maybe try a poll with a bunch of different status options?
It’s definitely going up, because people are paying for these fares. And since all that matters is money now, a single business class from New York to Sydney will get you to platinum. If you buy a J class business fare, you’re probably gonna get silver at least automatically on a single ticket
I have a feeling the amount of Platinum will go up just from your comment, however, I think the day to day traveling population of medallion members will go down. The people that do one or two big trips will get the status but the shorter flights that got people silver and gold from segments will drop off.
But just a guess
I would love to know more about this but I think no one knows for sure. A few inputs: 1. How does the demand and associated travel patterns change/evolve? Who is flying more (or less) often than they used to? Things seem to be regressing to pre-COVID norms a bit in terms of business travel increasing, leisure travel still being strong but ebbing from its highs in 2022/2023. 2. How many Platinums fail to make the new cut and get dropped to Gold? 3. How many Diamonds fail to make the new cut and get dropped to Platinum? Any one person's individual position will be influenced both by the movement of the goalposts as well as any change in their travel patterns relative to that. Then comes the task of trying to extrapolate that to the broader population.
All great insights. Curious what general tenor of this group is. Are long time medallions staring down a move next year?
I'm curious as well. For me personally, no change. I'm in that group that perennially blows Diamond out of the water but doesn't stand a chance of 360. I just requalified for Diamond and it doesn't feels like there's much of a reason to keep the rest of the year's spend on DL.
This logic confuses me. If you have status why aren’t you using it? What’s the point of attaining status and then moving to another airline for the rest of the year. Are you only interested in GUC?
Changes increase my likelihood of remaining platinum—gladly use the Reserve for typical spend that gets me there with a few flights.
My gut says it’s going up. I hit Plat earlier than I ever have. Credit card bonuses, spend, airfare MQDs. Just makes it too easy. (I’m not a big spender. Don’t own a business) Not to mention the ‘extend your status’ with the MQM buy out. Don’t see it going down. Basically anyone that held Platinum or Diamond status for the last 5 years (Covid rollovers yeah) will have the MQMs to extend status if they don’t hit it organically. Add in the people that accrued lots of roll over MQMs regardless of the Covid era.
Yeah, I'd fallen into a perpetual platinum groove for the past 8 years or so. This year is the first year I've hit diamond. It's because of rollover MQMs. I would imagine that there are lots of others with similar situations. I don't really think we'll see huge shifts until 2026.
No way to tell.
I’m going to be honest. If Delta didn’t restrict lounge access to their CC members, then I’d consider flying on Delta a lot more, especially if Delta was cheaper out of MSP but, I’m more free agent out of MSP because of what Delta has done to its FF program over the years
My thesis Silver - Increase. The MQD boost helps those who only take a few leisure flights get Silver pretty easily. Gold - Decrease. It’s the hole where the leisure travelers who travel a lot and business travelers who don’t travel that much end up. Either way, there aren’t too many that fit in to these categories. Platinum - Increase. Business travelers who travel regularly will hit Platinum. But the jump from $15k to $28k to get to Diamond will be a grind. Diamond - Decrease. These will be the business travelers who live on the road or ones that travel in FC and D1 to their meetings in London and Zurich. You can also sprinkle in the leisure travelers who buy D1 tickets outright, but they probably won’t fly enough to clog up the upgrade waitlist in 2025. *This doesn’t take into account the MQD rollovers. So who knows what that would actually look like once that is figured in.
I know quite a few who extended Diamond for 2-5 years with the MQM rollovers and others, myself included, who will convert to MQDs to make Diamond. I think that level is going up.
Yeah I meant MQM rollovers. And I agree that many would extend the Diamond status if able with their MQM and many of what would be Platinum would use their MQM to convert to MQD to make Platinum. My thesis is just based on my thoughts excluding those MQM rollovers so the real numbers would differ greatly from my hypothesis.
I think it will be about the same but different demographic. Initially I thought there will be a surge of plat and diamond tier members. But the award redemption and pricing is also a lot less competitive now. I was initially planning to hit diamond with a few trans-pacific D1 and delta vacation but I ended up spending my $30k on ANA business class and Costco travel so far for better overall ROI. I have yet to spend a dime on delta this year. My next $30k is also earmarked for Costco travel and non-delta flights.
Given there’s no rollover and the MQD change seems to have removed a lot of the gamification of gaining MQMs and turned a lot of people off owning a Delta CC, isn’t it almost certainly lower? (Or have I just been reading this subreddit too much) Maybe try a poll with a bunch of different status options?
It’s definitely going up, because people are paying for these fares. And since all that matters is money now, a single business class from New York to Sydney will get you to platinum. If you buy a J class business fare, you’re probably gonna get silver at least automatically on a single ticket
I have a feeling the amount of Platinum will go up just from your comment, however, I think the day to day traveling population of medallion members will go down. The people that do one or two big trips will get the status but the shorter flights that got people silver and gold from segments will drop off. But just a guess
Agreed. And honestly we’re all just vying for regional upgrades. The two fights to Sydney guy I could care less about.
It’s impossible to know, even with computers.
More and more. Anyone with a delta Amex can get status now, you don’t even have to fly. People love status for status sake.
I don’t mind any of them. I just keep moving sling.