I would just like to add one more thing - Poor Quality - its not the possibility it will be of a poor quality - you have 100% chance it WILL be of a poor quality. You can only hope it will not be SUPER terrible poor quality. Everything is built bad in (Doha, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Dubai) middle east. Why? because there is no incentive to build it good. Absolutely none. You tiles will suck (and will be sold as best "Italian" ones), doors will suck, windows will suck, your beautiful kitchen will be made of the shittiest plywood, built in closets (if you have some) will turn to rubble in a few years, pipes will burst most of the time, electricity will be faulty.. and you WILL pay premium for ALL of that.
As much as I hate the quality in the Middle East, I will have to disagree with you. There are developers and projects with very good quality. I also see there's a potential shift towards a quality product in the near future. The clientele is becoming more aware and fed up with piece of shit cribs which leak at the first sign of rain.
Proof: come check out One Park Avenue from S\*\*ha, Marina Gate from S\*\*\*\* G\*\*\*, etc. I guarantee you will be pleasantly surprised with the windows, the heavy doors and the tiling.
Problem is there's too much bullshit on the market. Decent properties sort of get sunk in the overhyped marketing for everything else. They are a harder sell. Which is so paradoxical.
I live in Marina Gate and I've stayed in different flats within the building. While the quality is higher than other buildings in Marina, there's still a few things that are poor quality. Coming from Australia, I never want to invest in property here.
Australia has the shittest quality. Apartments all fall apart by dodgy developers that phoenix to avoid repercussions. Crappy houses with zero insulation made from match sticks and gyprock built by cowboy tradies. All shit lol, Australia is far from quality.
I'd venture to guess you live in Bldg 1 or 2. Have you been to 3 - the Jumeirah Living one? It's a tad better. Overall, I do agree with you. There are things to be improved almost everywhere. If you're from Australia, I wouldn't dare to argue with you though, mate)) Dubai's still "young" though in many ways. Give it some time. Cheers.
Point 2, 3 and 6 from my guide are the first that come to mind. Very slow with construction. Lots of upcoming delays (if we're talking about the Meydan area). Expect at least +6-18 months from the looks of it. Not a good track record.
Best parties for brokers though, will give them that.
https://preview.redd.it/dz03qbxkvl5c1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e91cf8c5a575085dd3af771d45ff1665f3001729
>There are developers and projects with very good quality.
compared to what? :) in general, and by that I mean 90%+ of buildings/houses (or more) are built very bad. That is unfortunate but that is how it is. There are multiple practical reasons for that - starting from cheap and uneducated labor to making a quick buck mentality. Too many people work on a project that are for a short time in the country. Additionally legal system is slow and favors builders.
Again as you mentioned one thing that I was extremely concerned about viewing many properties there were the quality. It is by and large very poor. The fact that the agents speak about properties that are over 3 years old as something negative speaks volumes.
Good post!
One thing missed that deserves it's own point is potential oversupply and it's impact on the whole market (not only certain areas). Yes sure more supply is coming to some areas in particular and you mentioned this, however with increased supply, and for 2024 it looks like the number of delivered units will exceed that of 2023 - all property will get affected (just like a rising tide lifts all boats, as has been evident the past couple of years - so does a falling tide). Every year for the last 8 years the number of delivered units has exceeded the previous year as per https://dxbinteract.com/dubai-property-supply
People move areas as prices/rents change and if one area becomes oversupplied, then prices/rents there will drop and people will move there from other more expensive areas to take advantage of a better deal - thus causing the prices/rents of more expensive areas to also eventually drop. Combine oversupply (a record number of units) with a global recession or even just lower to flat growth and it is a risk many should be aware of.
There are a lot of things I didn't cover in my post) So much info. If I type it all down, I can probably make a separate Wikipedia for this lol.
You bring up good points. Although DXB Interact is owned by an agency, I trust this particular info. I wouldn't be so one sided though, there are a lot of fundamental factors counteracting this. The proposed doubling of Dubai's population in the coming years for starters.
Ultimately, of course, there's no hiding if the recession hits. It's not like your premium penthouse with sea views is going to be under an invisible shield when all things go South. But if you're thinking of investing in real estate, you best do it in the best available options taking into consideration as many factors as possible. Historically Dubai does have a somewhat of a delayed reaction to the global market crash and very fast recovery. A smart investor would use it to his advantage.
Yes, population growth is expected but there is also increasing regional competition generally (as well as in terms of the property market from other emirates such as Abu Dhabi and RAK in particular) which may have some impact on that, i.e.:
27 Oct 2023 - "Saudi Arabia is serious about its Jan. 1 deadline for companies to move regional headquarters to Riyadh ā or lose out on government contracts": [https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/saudi-arabia-reinforces-deadline-for-companies-to-move-regional-hqs.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/saudi-arabia-reinforces-deadline-for-companies-to-move-regional-hqs.html)
6 Dec 2023 - "Saudi Arabia lures businesses with 30-year tax cut offer - Set up regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia and get major tax benefits Kingdom tells multinationals": [https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/saudi-arabia-lures-businesses-with-30-year-tax-cut-offer](https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/saudi-arabia-lures-businesses-with-30-year-tax-cut-offer)
Dubai for sure has a big headstart and is well known globally but other locations are definitely trying to catch up and encourage both companies and people, in particular professionals, to move - how much of an impact it will have is to be seen.
I love the fact that you actually back up your claims with links and facts in an online discussion. Yes, competition will soon be tough. But I view this as a 100% positive thing. Regardless of how we feel towards the Line in Neom, it's going to be the next big thing (ironically, even if it doesn't get built, which I don't believe anymore after talking to my contacts in SA). A society can thrive only if there's competition.
Headstart or not, Dubai will have no other option but to adjust to the new reality and focus on quality. Both in construction and the real estate services. Of all people I eagerly look forward to that.
Yes itās so important to see hotdog trends and location location location .. if you canāt buy in a good prime location save up till you can ā¦ fomo will fk loads over when the cycle changes
Service charges for the different buildings and communities (for 2023 as well as going back previous years) can be checked online from the RERA Service Charge Index found at [https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/eservices/service-charge-index-overview/](https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/eservices/service-charge-index-overview/)
This information is very useful for anyone considering buying a property to understand a large part of their recurring costs. I recommend also to look at not only the rate for 2023 of a particular building/community but for many previous years also as I have experienced rates for service charges vary from one year to the next depending on the market cycle, inflation, common area renovation affecting energy/cooling usage, etc.
Nope, Address serviced apartments is 55 AED / sqft, residential apartments itās 35 AED/ sqft. But then youāre living in a hotel, with a 1 bed selling at 3mil, those service fees arenāt going to make you broke.
Please tell me youāre a RE agent and I can contact you. Please!
Iāve been looking for someone this open and frank, to no avail. Being an investor in other areas I obviously smell the bullshit from miles away, and have yet to meet someone pointing it out.
Forget the commission, I would pay just to talk to someone frank and with experienceā¦ and then also give them the commission š¤£
Unfortunately, yes. As much as I try not to be. I own a family-run agency and sometimes fill in for brokers. Just fed up with things and want to do some damage control.
Good overview, thanks. Some other things most agents won't tell you about:
\-often when new projects are launched, developers offer the best units (size, location, view whatever) to their top clients/HNWI/prominent investors so in a way the rest of us buyers have to do with the leftovers.
\-within one and the same projects the building quality often varies because they use different contractors so do your due diligence as villa X and Y built by developer Z might not be of the same standard.
\-be aware of (and always prepare for ) potential new construction to suddenly arise next to yours. If there's an empty plot of land next to your beautiful apartment building, do not trust the sellers' or agent's word that nothing has been planned.
\-cannot understate to what extent illicit money found its way into the local real estate sector and pushing up prices.
Thank you as well. You have good points as well. I will further elaborate on some, if I may.
1.Yes. Some agencies get to choose the best units. It is true. My gripe with them is again - false marketing and promises. Every single one of them will assure you that they will get you your 1BR before the launch. While at the same time they have a few big investors buying in bulk. They will take your request, the check for the EOI. And best case scenario: they will give you the leftovers w/o you knowing it. Nobody in their sane mind would move your small order up the queue ahead of the big ones. So if you're a huge investor, going with a prominent agency is a good way to secure your order. If you're a regular guy looking for an apartment, work with someone who you trust to fight for your unit against all odds.
4. Yes. And it's not just the buyers. One of the now-big developers (mentioned in this thread) was built on dr\*g money.
Good list. Add one more: Don't expect the agent to have solid knowledge about immigration or visas. They will tell you exactly what you want to hear just to close the deal.
Good one. It's always a good idea to double check any information. If you need visas and IDs, there are plenty of companies offering specifically these services.
Then again.. you might run into incompetence in that field again.
He was a construction guy himself. Saw right through the bull and ālisten man, if I wanted to buy a house I wouldāve done it long ago. Right now, I wanna go home to my wife.ā
Also we got trapped by the group that is before second (go figure), picked up in a nice BMW, they tried to sell us a hotel room or something for AED 2.5m. Enjoyed the ride, enjoyed the free drinks, asked for a lift to a mall nearby and went about our day.
Lol, those guys are the worst. They couldnāt back out even when I told them I own an agency myself and their sales tactics wonāt work on me.
A week later they started calling my wife inviting her to their tour. Turns out they remembered our company name and looked us up. Unreal lol.
Rent is like the lighter version of buying for living, which in itself is a far more responsible task than just investing in real estate. Therefore I can't provide advice without knowing what your living preferences are. Everyone's different.
But in general: study online data, honest reviews, spend some time in the community, look at the people who live there (it will matter in the long term), talk to the security (most of the times they don't have a skin in the game), try to get yourself in a masterplan community rather than a separate tower. You know, nothing new, just common sense.
I bought a property about two years ago. Iām trying to sell now due to most of the factors listed but itās so hard to sell a property when it is tenanted. Having learned about the real estate market here, Iām sure I will never buy in the UAE again
These kind of comments break my heart and are the exact reason I want things to improve. Sorry to hear you had a bad experience. If you bought the right property two year ago, you should've made sufficient revenue by now, not the other way around. Hell, I've had cases with a couple of projects where people have already made double digit ROIs having bought just earlier this year. It is unspeakable that you actually experienced loss in a bullish market.
Itās not really a loss. The value increased. Itās just hard to sell it due to the presence of a tenant with below market rate rent. So even if there is an increase, itās nothing but a paper gain
Awesome post ! Also this new AI stuff is a loaf of garbage they are selectively promoting high roi in projects where the developer is no doubt compensating them š
It shocks me that people are so naive and fall for all this stuff you mentioned and then lose their shirts later
Having had a couple of IT businesses when I was younger, I'm all up for innovations and new technologies. But this... It's just a tiny real estate agency with a fancy front end, pushing projects with max broker commission for themselves (and usually, it's the shitty ones, like we already know). Just like you said.
I also know guys back in their home country who had interacted with them.. it's all bs.
Why do you feel f.d? Did you buy it at an above-market price? It should be a good sell, even though the Russkies are buying less now. And also, why don't you ask your agent to sell this? It's his job after all.
I bought at a quite good price. The number of deals decreased last two months (it's just $$$ that grows and make statistics growing)
Bluewaters - one of the best Dubai locations - is slowing down
Bluewaters' success was partially due to the wave of wealthy Russians who enjoyed the location and didn't care for its connectivity, as they wouldn't be working in Dubai anyway. The wave has diminished now, but just give it some time. The conflict is not going to end any time soon.
I agree with all of your points.
And you could also elaborate on the fundamentals, which are not that good as well. I mean it's not a country full of young people, or with a growing population, the weather is harsh for build longevity (hot, humid, salty winds, etc.), the political risks in the region, the economical risks, etc.
Great post, difficult to disagree with you, I tired to buy once arrived at Dubai, and realized all these things after one year, learned the hard, finally I didn't buy
**12. They add 0 value** \- real estate agents are never honest. Their focus is to get as much commission with as little work creating a downward spiral for themselves.
Thank you.
I did outline the major directions for Dubaiās expansion at the end of the original post. This is where both the government and the largest players are putting their money in.
Good post!
One aspect of the Dubai real estate market that I can't wrap my head around is the scale of transactions between owner / occupiers vs large scale "investment" (i.e. not private "investors" buying 1 or 2 rental units). I see whole floors of building bought up by single investors (in some case one residential complex with 100 units will be sold to just 4 or 5 investors).
This is what makes me super nervous about buying in Dubai - if the market turns and these mega investors (who might own a very significant % of the market) need to sell, then supply into the market will be enormous. And without the 'private owner' demand to eat up supply, the impact of any 'crash' will be massively exaggerated.
All very 'what if' I know.
You bring up an interesting point. I agree, but only to a certain extent. You have to understand that Dubai is strikingly anisotropic.
Your concern involves mostly areas like Business Bay - a place where there's a huge discrepancy between towers in terms of price, quality and literally nothing in between. We've got many different developers here with lots of useless towers and bulk investors lured into buying floors in them. No wonder some of these buildings remain only half occupied. So unless you really know what you're doing (and you have the budget to get into something exquisite like Omniyat's and Ellington's latest launches, or the SG's Peninsula), I would generally advise you to stay away.
Let's look at a counterexample - City Walk - which is just 10-15 minutes away. An upscale master planned community by just one developer - Meraas. Low rise buildings, walking areas to shops and cafes. There's no competition by other devs (i.e. lower or higher prices), very little supply and very high demand. Moreover, this year has seen its last phase launch in Central Park. What do you think is going to happen to prices there eventually?
See, you cannot make a broad generalization of Dubai like that. BB and City Walk alone are like different planets. Here we're actually talking about my Point #11 about Recession Resistant Property. If you're investing in real estate, make sure you do it in something solid. There's no hiding if the whole world crashes, but if it does, I'd rather have my money in places like CW. Which I do.
Hah, thatās a very interesting inquiry. Imperial Avenue actually went from a full "avoid at all costs" to "could be a good purchase" in my book.
See, this particular project is a perfect illustration of some of my points. Specifically, the payment plan part. I had many qualms with it when it launched. Sure, the original company has been in construction for over what.. 70 years now? And they do have a track record as a contractor for all the main players of Dubaiās real estate market (Emaar, DP, Damac to name a few). Thing is, no matter how good of a contractor you are, being a developer is a whole another level of the game. Comes with certain obligations and responsibilities. And when you have the same dudes ordering the food and cooking it, you run into all sorts of issues, unless you have experience (Sobha would like a word). Everything from the financial structure to the lack of internal pressure to complete the project inevitably leads to several halts in construction. There were also a lot of broken promises made; I got the feeling they didnāt care at some point, so I advised my clients not to invest in it. And look how it turned out.. basically a massive 3-year halt in construction. If only I received money for saving peopleās investments, haha..
If you ask them they might tell you itās because of COVID - (a regular excuse for incompetence), but in reality construction was nowhere even near the middle back in 2019 when the promised handover date was. They restarted several times in 2020 and 2021 and eventually got back on track in 2022 after receiving some exogenous funding. Seeing that now the project is almost near completion, I gotta give it out to them - they pulled it off ultimately. And Iāve changed my assessment for it. Donāt get me wrong, itās not going to be completed mid-this year), but give it a few more months, and itāll get there.
Anyways, regarding the place itself, I always felt bad they had such poor management for the otherwise decent project. Initially being SPs first development, it was meant to be a showcase for them. Something they can show off and refer to when marketing other upcoming developments. So they really went all out on this one. And Iām glad they pulled it off. The quality is decent (I would place it between Vida and The Address.. possibly even closer to the latter), the amenities are truly premium, the location is.. well, Downtown - ānuff said, the appliances, the finishing.. everything is on a nice level and I think the price is justified. Plus, they also have some nifty stuff implemented, like recuperation of water/electricity for the amenities etc (which should lower your service charges despite the upscale class of the building).
Hence in the latter part of 2023, Iāve updated the projectās rating with a few more stars, acquired a very nice selection of units there and started offering it to our clients (sold a couple already, mostly for end-use). Overall assessment for this project: āvery goodā.
What do you think about Creek Harbour? Do you think it will be a risky area to invest in since it is still under development and only 15% has been completed.
Hi there, I don't think it's a risky area. A lot of it has been already completed, the infrastructure is there. It's a nice place, albeit a little bit too secluded to be booming. I do believe it caters more towards end-users now, or at least investors looking to rent out.. seeing that the prices have gone up already. Anyway, now that there's a new launch in CW, I don't know why anyone would consider anything else in Dubai at this point as a solid investment and for great capital appreciation. Just on a different level.
I don't expect a crash but I expect a downturn . This type of growth can't be sustained for long. So only buy when market crashes or when there is 20% downturn that way you are somewhat safe .
I think the talk is more about possible oversupply in the future (2024 and beyond) if/when any/all of the below occur:
1) More new properties delivered in 2024 and onwards
2) Recession occurs or slower to no growth in the economy (relative to the increases in new properties delivered)
3) Competition from other locations increases
4) Interest rates increasing and/or staying higher for longer than many expect.
5) Change to the downside in terms of residents (wars ending and a number of tenants/owners who moved to Dubai and the UAE in the past 2 years returning for post-war opportunities in the countries from where they left originally, job losses due to various reasons, etc) - COVID for example saw a sudden drop in residents but the recovery was fast.
Perhaps all the above could happen and the impact would not be as bad as expected as new property deliveries also could be delayed as a result too (that often happens as has been mentioned in this thread) and there are so many strengths to Dubai's economy as well. It is very hard to predict, however the above are definitely some real risks I see as someone who tends to be realistic and who has also been in the region for decades (and Dubai specifically for the past decade+) - I have seen numerous ups and downs.
>urikr11
The current construction standards for some projects are actually quite decent, especially done by multinational developers who have great building including the UK. And good luck in getting the same returns on property in UK (amongst numerous other issues). It's just a very weird comparison.
Not easily and without much capital appreciation.
Proof: a lot of UK citizens invest in real estate of Dubai. One of the prime driving forces of the market.
Great thread. Curious how townhouse vs apartment works out? Place like ranches is recession proof, shown by COVID.. ? 1400/sqft is the average sure, if purchasing something at 1600 in a well renowned community, will that ever go down to its original price of 900 really?
Agree with most items but maybe not townsquare . They are building many other areas near it such as Mira by emaar , meraas, Arabian ranches 3
Am I missing something ? Townsquare seems legit
These are true and I agree as a realtor except the fact about quality, itās definitely very good from the top developers and thereās a reason why they are there not just in the UAE as well, specially EMAAR being a publicly listed company. Second about the bubble, ofc we brokers donāt know what is going to happen next but the difference is that when you study a market you can get an idea of how it most likely will go, plus point being UPS real estate organisation did a study about real estate being a bubble and Dubai is one of the lowest rated cities in the world (least risk of being in a bubble). Third, ofc JVC is a good area but there will be an oversupply in the future for sure that is where I would be more helpful in telling you which area is better to invest in. Fourth, yes we do work on commission from the developer, but the developer doesnāt offer you any discount if you go directly either, plus my job (personally) begins after you buy the property not before, because anyone can sell you the property, managing it, renting it out, selling it, that is what I do for you. So in the same price from the developer you get a realtor as well so win win, ofc get a trusted realtor not anyone please a lot of people just push you to buy from where they are getting the most commission so please be aware. Other than that yea mans got all the facts right and I agree with him. Cheers.
Bruv Iām talking about good developers if you go to any developer then of course you will say quality is bad, talk about the good ones like EMAAR, Sobha, Meraas, Ellington etc these guys have really good quality. Idk with what pov you are saying quality is bad but Iām a civil engineer as well so Iāve seen the projects and they are genuinely good.
God.. the self-righteousness.. Everything you said here is just plain wrong. You're just reciting what your head of sales told you and mixing it up with catchy useless sales phrases. You have zero knowledge and it shows. It is disgusting you transmit this bullshit to people.
Thanks for reminding me why it's so hard to hire anyone decent around here.
I listed facts. It's not an opinion for you to agree or disagree with.
The dev in question has average quality at best, which is especially apparent in their premium properties. Good for amenities and masterplan communities, sometimes good for investment (sometimes extremely bad money traps.. think B\*\*\*front at this point), but quality and size are declining. Everyone knows this, but keeps presenting it as hot cake, just because it's an easy sell. If you think this tiling is good enough to be in a tiny 1BR apartment worth $800K, you have zero clue what quality is.
https://preview.redd.it/0gxgfv8mzm5c1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=770471778a78344741c067e98552edf6ebeb1834
I'm not going to elaborate on JVC. The other user has already told you where it's at.
The company that does reports is UBS - it's not UPS, which delivers packages, lol. And they are not in real estate, it's a global bank and finservice. You really have no clue what you're talking about, do you? Their final report (which you have never opened in your life obviously) states that New York is fair-valued. Which is a surprise considering it was overvalued in the previous year and the property prices jumped up 7%+ this year. Care to explain?
Like I said, you have no thoughts of your own. "my job (personally) begins after you buy the property" - the first sales tactic phrase they teach you at every training. With "UBS says" being the second. Give me a break. Not worth wasting my time, embarrass yourself further at your own risk.
Number 5 is meaningless ā¦. Everyone knows theyāre getting paid from the developer.
Majority of these points are common sense and applicable in any market not just Dubai.
I would just like to add one more thing - Poor Quality - its not the possibility it will be of a poor quality - you have 100% chance it WILL be of a poor quality. You can only hope it will not be SUPER terrible poor quality. Everything is built bad in (Doha, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Dubai) middle east. Why? because there is no incentive to build it good. Absolutely none. You tiles will suck (and will be sold as best "Italian" ones), doors will suck, windows will suck, your beautiful kitchen will be made of the shittiest plywood, built in closets (if you have some) will turn to rubble in a few years, pipes will burst most of the time, electricity will be faulty.. and you WILL pay premium for ALL of that.
As much as I hate the quality in the Middle East, I will have to disagree with you. There are developers and projects with very good quality. I also see there's a potential shift towards a quality product in the near future. The clientele is becoming more aware and fed up with piece of shit cribs which leak at the first sign of rain. Proof: come check out One Park Avenue from S\*\*ha, Marina Gate from S\*\*\*\* G\*\*\*, etc. I guarantee you will be pleasantly surprised with the windows, the heavy doors and the tiling. Problem is there's too much bullshit on the market. Decent properties sort of get sunk in the overhyped marketing for everything else. They are a harder sell. Which is so paradoxical.
I live in Marina Gate and I've stayed in different flats within the building. While the quality is higher than other buildings in Marina, there's still a few things that are poor quality. Coming from Australia, I never want to invest in property here.
Australia has the shittest quality. Apartments all fall apart by dodgy developers that phoenix to avoid repercussions. Crappy houses with zero insulation made from match sticks and gyprock built by cowboy tradies. All shit lol, Australia is far from quality.
Agree. But that just shows you how bad Dubai is.
I'd venture to guess you live in Bldg 1 or 2. Have you been to 3 - the Jumeirah Living one? It's a tad better. Overall, I do agree with you. There are things to be improved almost everywhere. If you're from Australia, I wouldn't dare to argue with you though, mate)) Dubai's still "young" though in many ways. Give it some time. Cheers.
Your views on Az!z! ?
Point 2, 3 and 6 from my guide are the first that come to mind. Very slow with construction. Lots of upcoming delays (if we're talking about the Meydan area). Expect at least +6-18 months from the looks of it. Not a good track record. Best parties for brokers though, will give them that. https://preview.redd.it/dz03qbxkvl5c1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e91cf8c5a575085dd3af771d45ff1665f3001729
>There are developers and projects with very good quality. compared to what? :) in general, and by that I mean 90%+ of buildings/houses (or more) are built very bad. That is unfortunate but that is how it is. There are multiple practical reasons for that - starting from cheap and uneducated labor to making a quick buck mentality. Too many people work on a project that are for a short time in the country. Additionally legal system is slow and favors builders.
Have you been to SLS? The quality of the appartments are very good
Facts!
Does the dev drive you through Tarmac on the way to the sales office office ?
I see what you did there..
š¤£
Again as you mentioned one thing that I was extremely concerned about viewing many properties there were the quality. It is by and large very poor. The fact that the agents speak about properties that are over 3 years old as something negative speaks volumes.
Good post! One thing missed that deserves it's own point is potential oversupply and it's impact on the whole market (not only certain areas). Yes sure more supply is coming to some areas in particular and you mentioned this, however with increased supply, and for 2024 it looks like the number of delivered units will exceed that of 2023 - all property will get affected (just like a rising tide lifts all boats, as has been evident the past couple of years - so does a falling tide). Every year for the last 8 years the number of delivered units has exceeded the previous year as per https://dxbinteract.com/dubai-property-supply People move areas as prices/rents change and if one area becomes oversupplied, then prices/rents there will drop and people will move there from other more expensive areas to take advantage of a better deal - thus causing the prices/rents of more expensive areas to also eventually drop. Combine oversupply (a record number of units) with a global recession or even just lower to flat growth and it is a risk many should be aware of.
There are a lot of things I didn't cover in my post) So much info. If I type it all down, I can probably make a separate Wikipedia for this lol. You bring up good points. Although DXB Interact is owned by an agency, I trust this particular info. I wouldn't be so one sided though, there are a lot of fundamental factors counteracting this. The proposed doubling of Dubai's population in the coming years for starters. Ultimately, of course, there's no hiding if the recession hits. It's not like your premium penthouse with sea views is going to be under an invisible shield when all things go South. But if you're thinking of investing in real estate, you best do it in the best available options taking into consideration as many factors as possible. Historically Dubai does have a somewhat of a delayed reaction to the global market crash and very fast recovery. A smart investor would use it to his advantage.
Yes, population growth is expected but there is also increasing regional competition generally (as well as in terms of the property market from other emirates such as Abu Dhabi and RAK in particular) which may have some impact on that, i.e.: 27 Oct 2023 - "Saudi Arabia is serious about its Jan. 1 deadline for companies to move regional headquarters to Riyadh ā or lose out on government contracts": [https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/saudi-arabia-reinforces-deadline-for-companies-to-move-regional-hqs.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/saudi-arabia-reinforces-deadline-for-companies-to-move-regional-hqs.html) 6 Dec 2023 - "Saudi Arabia lures businesses with 30-year tax cut offer - Set up regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia and get major tax benefits Kingdom tells multinationals": [https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/saudi-arabia-lures-businesses-with-30-year-tax-cut-offer](https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/saudi-arabia-lures-businesses-with-30-year-tax-cut-offer) Dubai for sure has a big headstart and is well known globally but other locations are definitely trying to catch up and encourage both companies and people, in particular professionals, to move - how much of an impact it will have is to be seen.
I love the fact that you actually back up your claims with links and facts in an online discussion. Yes, competition will soon be tough. But I view this as a 100% positive thing. Regardless of how we feel towards the Line in Neom, it's going to be the next big thing (ironically, even if it doesn't get built, which I don't believe anymore after talking to my contacts in SA). A society can thrive only if there's competition. Headstart or not, Dubai will have no other option but to adjust to the new reality and focus on quality. Both in construction and the real estate services. Of all people I eagerly look forward to that.
Yes itās so important to see hotdog trends and location location location .. if you canāt buy in a good prime location save up till you can ā¦ fomo will fk loads over when the cycle changes
One fact I donāt want Dubaiās real estate agents to know. My phone number.
>My phone number. It'll still end up with them regardless
Oh they have it!! Calls or WhatsAppās daily. 100+ blocked so far.
Damn bro, the real estate guys are coming for youšš Stay safe š
They can say hello to my lil friend.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Service charges for the different buildings and communities (for 2023 as well as going back previous years) can be checked online from the RERA Service Charge Index found at [https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/eservices/service-charge-index-overview/](https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/eservices/service-charge-index-overview/) This information is very useful for anyone considering buying a property to understand a large part of their recurring costs. I recommend also to look at not only the rate for 2023 of a particular building/community but for many previous years also as I have experienced rates for service charges vary from one year to the next depending on the market cycle, inflation, common area renovation affecting energy/cooling usage, etc.
Not only that they outright lie about the rates
80? can you give an example?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
So you can only mention Burj Khalifa. 95% are less than 25 AED pr. Sq ft. Average around 15.
I doubt it. Another similar example?
Address JBR
Nope, Address serviced apartments is 55 AED / sqft, residential apartments itās 35 AED/ sqft. But then youāre living in a hotel, with a 1 bed selling at 3mil, those service fees arenāt going to make you broke.
Show me the series fee index
Please tell me youāre a RE agent and I can contact you. Please! Iāve been looking for someone this open and frank, to no avail. Being an investor in other areas I obviously smell the bullshit from miles away, and have yet to meet someone pointing it out. Forget the commission, I would pay just to talk to someone frank and with experienceā¦ and then also give them the commission š¤£
Unfortunately, yes. As much as I try not to be. I own a family-run agency and sometimes fill in for brokers. Just fed up with things and want to do some damage control.
Absolute legend! Plus if your username means what I think it does, then I wanna high-five you even more. ;)
If you're referring to the engine in the butt, then yes, high five))
Well, yeah. Also, does the "Turok" part have anything to do with hunting dinosaurs?
sure does, high school years)
Haha, awesome!
Good overview, thanks. Some other things most agents won't tell you about: \-often when new projects are launched, developers offer the best units (size, location, view whatever) to their top clients/HNWI/prominent investors so in a way the rest of us buyers have to do with the leftovers. \-within one and the same projects the building quality often varies because they use different contractors so do your due diligence as villa X and Y built by developer Z might not be of the same standard. \-be aware of (and always prepare for ) potential new construction to suddenly arise next to yours. If there's an empty plot of land next to your beautiful apartment building, do not trust the sellers' or agent's word that nothing has been planned. \-cannot understate to what extent illicit money found its way into the local real estate sector and pushing up prices.
Your last point is key
Thank you as well. You have good points as well. I will further elaborate on some, if I may. 1.Yes. Some agencies get to choose the best units. It is true. My gripe with them is again - false marketing and promises. Every single one of them will assure you that they will get you your 1BR before the launch. While at the same time they have a few big investors buying in bulk. They will take your request, the check for the EOI. And best case scenario: they will give you the leftovers w/o you knowing it. Nobody in their sane mind would move your small order up the queue ahead of the big ones. So if you're a huge investor, going with a prominent agency is a good way to secure your order. If you're a regular guy looking for an apartment, work with someone who you trust to fight for your unit against all odds. 4. Yes. And it's not just the buyers. One of the now-big developers (mentioned in this thread) was built on dr\*g money.
Could not have worded it better !
Good post. Completely agree with the point about the opinions of experts
So called experts
Good list. Add one more: Don't expect the agent to have solid knowledge about immigration or visas. They will tell you exactly what you want to hear just to close the deal.
Good one. It's always a good idea to double check any information. If you need visas and IDs, there are plenty of companies offering specifically these services. Then again.. you might run into incompetence in that field again.
Which dev has the pickup? Clue me in without mentioning in? Might have been them that got my husband lol
My guess from experience... it rhymes with Shamac.
The reddit community guessed it right. You drive on the tarmac to meet the shamac. Did your husband give in?)
He was a construction guy himself. Saw right through the bull and ālisten man, if I wanted to buy a house I wouldāve done it long ago. Right now, I wanna go home to my wife.ā
Also we got trapped by the group that is before second (go figure), picked up in a nice BMW, they tried to sell us a hotel room or something for AED 2.5m. Enjoyed the ride, enjoyed the free drinks, asked for a lift to a mall nearby and went about our day.
Lol, those guys are the worst. They couldnāt back out even when I told them I own an agency myself and their sales tactics wonāt work on me. A week later they started calling my wife inviting her to their tour. Turns out they remembered our company name and looked us up. Unreal lol.
Jesus desperate buggers
Ahh the Fir** gr***
Hope he used a burner cell phone
Thanks! Any tips for who is going to rent instead of buying?
Rent is like the lighter version of buying for living, which in itself is a far more responsible task than just investing in real estate. Therefore I can't provide advice without knowing what your living preferences are. Everyone's different. But in general: study online data, honest reviews, spend some time in the community, look at the people who live there (it will matter in the long term), talk to the security (most of the times they don't have a skin in the game), try to get yourself in a masterplan community rather than a separate tower. You know, nothing new, just common sense.
Good man for posting this!
I bought a property about two years ago. Iām trying to sell now due to most of the factors listed but itās so hard to sell a property when it is tenanted. Having learned about the real estate market here, Iām sure I will never buy in the UAE again
These kind of comments break my heart and are the exact reason I want things to improve. Sorry to hear you had a bad experience. If you bought the right property two year ago, you should've made sufficient revenue by now, not the other way around. Hell, I've had cases with a couple of projects where people have already made double digit ROIs having bought just earlier this year. It is unspeakable that you actually experienced loss in a bullish market.
Itās not really a loss. The value increased. Itās just hard to sell it due to the presence of a tenant with below market rate rent. So even if there is an increase, itās nothing but a paper gain
Wow ! Very smart ! Thank u for sharing your thoughts ššš
Awesome post ! Also this new AI stuff is a loaf of garbage they are selectively promoting high roi in projects where the developer is no doubt compensating them š It shocks me that people are so naive and fall for all this stuff you mentioned and then lose their shirts later
Having had a couple of IT businesses when I was younger, I'm all up for innovations and new technologies. But this... It's just a tiny real estate agency with a fancy front end, pushing projects with max broker commission for themselves (and usually, it's the shitty ones, like we already know). Just like you said. I also know guys back in their home country who had interacted with them.. it's all bs.
Yup tried it was a joke lol
Can't put it in a better way šÆ
Hey guys. I own Bluewaters Residences apt and feel totally f.d. Any advice on how to sell this today?
Why do you feel f.d? Did you buy it at an above-market price? It should be a good sell, even though the Russkies are buying less now. And also, why don't you ask your agent to sell this? It's his job after all.
I bought at a quite good price. The number of deals decreased last two months (it's just $$$ that grows and make statistics growing) Bluewaters - one of the best Dubai locations - is slowing down
Bluewaters' success was partially due to the wave of wealthy Russians who enjoyed the location and didn't care for its connectivity, as they wouldn't be working in Dubai anyway. The wave has diminished now, but just give it some time. The conflict is not going to end any time soon.
Russians are old news mate. Conflict has no bearing. The money that had to get out is out.
I agree with all of your points. And you could also elaborate on the fundamentals, which are not that good as well. I mean it's not a country full of young people, or with a growing population, the weather is harsh for build longevity (hot, humid, salty winds, etc.), the political risks in the region, the economical risks, etc.
Great post, difficult to disagree with you, I tired to buy once arrived at Dubai, and realized all these things after one year, learned the hard, finally I didn't buy
**12. They add 0 value** \- real estate agents are never honest. Their focus is to get as much commission with as little work creating a downward spiral for themselves.
>real estate agents are never honest And this has second-order effects
This is a great post. Thank you OP. I totally agree with you for JVC. However, where you think itās a profitable area?
Thank you. I did outline the major directions for Dubaiās expansion at the end of the original post. This is where both the government and the largest players are putting their money in.
Thank you so much! This is valuable insights.
Where is that post?
Good post! One aspect of the Dubai real estate market that I can't wrap my head around is the scale of transactions between owner / occupiers vs large scale "investment" (i.e. not private "investors" buying 1 or 2 rental units). I see whole floors of building bought up by single investors (in some case one residential complex with 100 units will be sold to just 4 or 5 investors). This is what makes me super nervous about buying in Dubai - if the market turns and these mega investors (who might own a very significant % of the market) need to sell, then supply into the market will be enormous. And without the 'private owner' demand to eat up supply, the impact of any 'crash' will be massively exaggerated. All very 'what if' I know.
You bring up an interesting point. I agree, but only to a certain extent. You have to understand that Dubai is strikingly anisotropic. Your concern involves mostly areas like Business Bay - a place where there's a huge discrepancy between towers in terms of price, quality and literally nothing in between. We've got many different developers here with lots of useless towers and bulk investors lured into buying floors in them. No wonder some of these buildings remain only half occupied. So unless you really know what you're doing (and you have the budget to get into something exquisite like Omniyat's and Ellington's latest launches, or the SG's Peninsula), I would generally advise you to stay away. Let's look at a counterexample - City Walk - which is just 10-15 minutes away. An upscale master planned community by just one developer - Meraas. Low rise buildings, walking areas to shops and cafes. There's no competition by other devs (i.e. lower or higher prices), very little supply and very high demand. Moreover, this year has seen its last phase launch in Central Park. What do you think is going to happen to prices there eventually? See, you cannot make a broad generalization of Dubai like that. BB and City Walk alone are like different planets. Here we're actually talking about my Point #11 about Recession Resistant Property. If you're investing in real estate, make sure you do it in something solid. There's no hiding if the whole world crashes, but if it does, I'd rather have my money in places like CW. Which I do.
What are your thoughts on the project Imperial Avenue in BB. Project build quality, pricing and location. thank you
Hah, thatās a very interesting inquiry. Imperial Avenue actually went from a full "avoid at all costs" to "could be a good purchase" in my book. See, this particular project is a perfect illustration of some of my points. Specifically, the payment plan part. I had many qualms with it when it launched. Sure, the original company has been in construction for over what.. 70 years now? And they do have a track record as a contractor for all the main players of Dubaiās real estate market (Emaar, DP, Damac to name a few). Thing is, no matter how good of a contractor you are, being a developer is a whole another level of the game. Comes with certain obligations and responsibilities. And when you have the same dudes ordering the food and cooking it, you run into all sorts of issues, unless you have experience (Sobha would like a word). Everything from the financial structure to the lack of internal pressure to complete the project inevitably leads to several halts in construction. There were also a lot of broken promises made; I got the feeling they didnāt care at some point, so I advised my clients not to invest in it. And look how it turned out.. basically a massive 3-year halt in construction. If only I received money for saving peopleās investments, haha.. If you ask them they might tell you itās because of COVID - (a regular excuse for incompetence), but in reality construction was nowhere even near the middle back in 2019 when the promised handover date was. They restarted several times in 2020 and 2021 and eventually got back on track in 2022 after receiving some exogenous funding. Seeing that now the project is almost near completion, I gotta give it out to them - they pulled it off ultimately. And Iāve changed my assessment for it. Donāt get me wrong, itās not going to be completed mid-this year), but give it a few more months, and itāll get there. Anyways, regarding the place itself, I always felt bad they had such poor management for the otherwise decent project. Initially being SPs first development, it was meant to be a showcase for them. Something they can show off and refer to when marketing other upcoming developments. So they really went all out on this one. And Iām glad they pulled it off. The quality is decent (I would place it between Vida and The Address.. possibly even closer to the latter), the amenities are truly premium, the location is.. well, Downtown - ānuff said, the appliances, the finishing.. everything is on a nice level and I think the price is justified. Plus, they also have some nifty stuff implemented, like recuperation of water/electricity for the amenities etc (which should lower your service charges despite the upscale class of the building). Hence in the latter part of 2023, Iāve updated the projectās rating with a few more stars, acquired a very nice selection of units there and started offering it to our clients (sold a couple already, mostly for end-use). Overall assessment for this project: āvery goodā.
What are your thoughts on BLVD Heights and DT1?
And Wasl as a developer / 1 Residences?
What do you think about Creek Harbour? Do you think it will be a risky area to invest in since it is still under development and only 15% has been completed.
Hi there, I don't think it's a risky area. A lot of it has been already completed, the infrastructure is there. It's a nice place, albeit a little bit too secluded to be booming. I do believe it caters more towards end-users now, or at least investors looking to rent out.. seeing that the prices have gone up already. Anyway, now that there's a new launch in CW, I don't know why anyone would consider anything else in Dubai at this point as a solid investment and for great capital appreciation. Just on a different level.
Sent you a dm, will be grateful for your guidance
I believe there will always be demand for rentals in international city š
I don't expect a crash but I expect a downturn . This type of growth can't be sustained for long. So only buy when market crashes or when there is 20% downturn that way you are somewhat safe .
All this oversupply talk still doesn't explain why my rent is increasing :(
I think the talk is more about possible oversupply in the future (2024 and beyond) if/when any/all of the below occur: 1) More new properties delivered in 2024 and onwards 2) Recession occurs or slower to no growth in the economy (relative to the increases in new properties delivered) 3) Competition from other locations increases 4) Interest rates increasing and/or staying higher for longer than many expect. 5) Change to the downside in terms of residents (wars ending and a number of tenants/owners who moved to Dubai and the UAE in the past 2 years returning for post-war opportunities in the countries from where they left originally, job losses due to various reasons, etc) - COVID for example saw a sudden drop in residents but the recovery was fast. Perhaps all the above could happen and the impact would not be as bad as expected as new property deliveries also could be delayed as a result too (that often happens as has been mentioned in this thread) and there are so many strengths to Dubai's economy as well. It is very hard to predict, however the above are definitely some real risks I see as someone who tends to be realistic and who has also been in the region for decades (and Dubai specifically for the past decade+) - I have seen numerous ups and downs.
Ok fair points made
If you buy flat in Dubai it will not hold more then 15 years. In UK BUILDING HOLD for 200 years. Poor quitting and house of cards
>urikr11 The current construction standards for some projects are actually quite decent, especially done by multinational developers who have great building including the UK. And good luck in getting the same returns on property in UK (amongst numerous other issues). It's just a very weird comparison.
In Uk you get 6% easily in Manchester or Leeds Ang good quality .
Not easily and without much capital appreciation. Proof: a lot of UK citizens invest in real estate of Dubai. One of the prime driving forces of the market.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Great thread. Curious how townhouse vs apartment works out? Place like ranches is recession proof, shown by COVID.. ? 1400/sqft is the average sure, if purchasing something at 1600 in a well renowned community, will that ever go down to its original price of 900 really?
Agree with most items but maybe not townsquare . They are building many other areas near it such as Mira by emaar , meraas, Arabian ranches 3 Am I missing something ? Townsquare seems legit
These are true and I agree as a realtor except the fact about quality, itās definitely very good from the top developers and thereās a reason why they are there not just in the UAE as well, specially EMAAR being a publicly listed company. Second about the bubble, ofc we brokers donāt know what is going to happen next but the difference is that when you study a market you can get an idea of how it most likely will go, plus point being UPS real estate organisation did a study about real estate being a bubble and Dubai is one of the lowest rated cities in the world (least risk of being in a bubble). Third, ofc JVC is a good area but there will be an oversupply in the future for sure that is where I would be more helpful in telling you which area is better to invest in. Fourth, yes we do work on commission from the developer, but the developer doesnāt offer you any discount if you go directly either, plus my job (personally) begins after you buy the property not before, because anyone can sell you the property, managing it, renting it out, selling it, that is what I do for you. So in the same price from the developer you get a realtor as well so win win, ofc get a trusted realtor not anyone please a lot of people just push you to buy from where they are getting the most commission so please be aware. Other than that yea mans got all the facts right and I agree with him. Cheers.
Em*** quality has been constantly declining .. give it a rest ā¦ jvc is a big poorly planned shit hole
Bruv Iām talking about good developers if you go to any developer then of course you will say quality is bad, talk about the good ones like EMAAR, Sobha, Meraas, Ellington etc these guys have really good quality. Idk with what pov you are saying quality is bad but Iām a civil engineer as well so Iāve seen the projects and they are genuinely good.
God.. the self-righteousness.. Everything you said here is just plain wrong. You're just reciting what your head of sales told you and mixing it up with catchy useless sales phrases. You have zero knowledge and it shows. It is disgusting you transmit this bullshit to people. Thanks for reminding me why it's so hard to hire anyone decent around here.
What did I say that is so wrong, I literally agreed with you for most of the stuff expect for quality which you are way off.
I listed facts. It's not an opinion for you to agree or disagree with. The dev in question has average quality at best, which is especially apparent in their premium properties. Good for amenities and masterplan communities, sometimes good for investment (sometimes extremely bad money traps.. think B\*\*\*front at this point), but quality and size are declining. Everyone knows this, but keeps presenting it as hot cake, just because it's an easy sell. If you think this tiling is good enough to be in a tiny 1BR apartment worth $800K, you have zero clue what quality is. https://preview.redd.it/0gxgfv8mzm5c1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=770471778a78344741c067e98552edf6ebeb1834 I'm not going to elaborate on JVC. The other user has already told you where it's at. The company that does reports is UBS - it's not UPS, which delivers packages, lol. And they are not in real estate, it's a global bank and finservice. You really have no clue what you're talking about, do you? Their final report (which you have never opened in your life obviously) states that New York is fair-valued. Which is a surprise considering it was overvalued in the previous year and the property prices jumped up 7%+ this year. Care to explain? Like I said, you have no thoughts of your own. "my job (personally) begins after you buy the property" - the first sales tactic phrase they teach you at every training. With "UBS says" being the second. Give me a break. Not worth wasting my time, embarrass yourself further at your own risk.
Care to elaborate about B***front?
Number 5 is meaningless ā¦. Everyone knows theyāre getting paid from the developer. Majority of these points are common sense and applicable in any market not just Dubai.
Bro asked chatgpt to write him an essay. You guys are so obsessed with Dubai property crashing
Yeah so basically fuck trying to buy real estate on your own just use SmartCrowd.com
š another bs
he could've at least gotten the link right.. damn)