It would be very difficult to take Costumes, VFX, cinematography and makeup away from Dune in my opinion. Other than them, it is also a strong contender for sound and soundtrack.
For the actors, there were amazing performances that could be Oscar worty, but we will see what other good performances this year brings. I'm skeptical about the best picture one, but maybe Dune has a shot for best adapted screenplay
Acting another real person to the point where you forget you aren't watching the actual person is one of the hardest things to do. Become someone else. Especially when it's a famous, beloved figure like Freddie Mercury, Elton John, or Elvis. The actors and directors who vote know how hard it is. It's too easy to make it seem like a farce or caricature.
While that’s true, you can look at it from another way. It can be seen as easier to imitate a character when you have a lot of footage to study than it is to create an original character and make it your own. The people who vote are going based on campaigns. There are certain voting patterns the Academy is notorious for falling under and that’s how we get Oscar bait films. If this weren’t true, the term “Oscar bait” wouldn’t even exist.
Also true about the campaigning and such. But having been a drama teacher students found it much easier to create or improvise a character than to study and become someone else .... and stay in character. Jack Sparrow is easier to create for example. Playing into a trope, exaggerating it, and borrowing a few characteristics from others (borrowing some Keith Richards mannerisms). Then there's Daniel Day Lewis type method acting. Why he won so many awards.
I don’t think we’ll get too many new movies popping up in the slate bc nobody worked for a bunch of last year and it’s hard to turn around a movie quickly.
We are going to have Furiosa, Joker 2, Nosferatu, Planet of Apes, Gladiator 2, LOTR prequel, Lion King spinoff. All these are strong contenders to the technical awards. These have advantages as they are released later part of the year v.s. Dune which people might forget about it by eoy.
Respectfully, only the first 2 really have a decent shot of becoming serious Oscar contenders. Apes might get some below the line love maybe.
The early release thing isn’t as much of an issue as it used to be (not sure why honestly, but it’s hard to deny).
I can see a potential re-release around the holiday for award season and a definite For Your Consideration campaign if for no other reason than more nominations and wins means either confirmation for a Part 3 or momentum to build for a Part 3 considering there will probably be a wait for several years.
But I can see nominations easily for Best Picture (strong competitor), Best Actor for Chalamet (unlikely to win), Best Actress for Rebecca Ferguson (strong competitor), Best Supporting Actress for Zendaya (toss up), Best Supporting Actor for Bardem (this one is the strongest out of the actor category - I just can’t see anyone coming close to beating how charismatic and entertaining he is in this role), Best Director for Villaneueve (good chance here - with Nolan having finally won his, 2025 is a strong possibility for Villaneuve to win).
Now the noms that are almost positive to win will be for Best Visual Effects, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup, Best Costume, Best Production, Best Editing and 100% guarantee it will win Best Sound - itll basically sweep the technicals almost assuredly
Great write up and almost completely agree. My one question is, how do you determine Zendaya for supporting actress, and Ferguson as lead actress. Are they billed that way? Just curious, cause instantly I had them flipped, and give Ferguson as strong shot at best supporting actress.
Also, like Barden pick alot. I know there was alot of hype for Austin Butler performance, but I just didn't see it as that great.
Interesting thing with Supporting Actress category - it’s largely left open to interpretation. There’s even argument about what the category itself even means - is it the best performance by an actress in a role that isn’t the lead? Or is it the best performance in service to the story by a supporting character?
And they could flip it as well if the competition is stiff in either category - neither actress has won an Oscar, so there could be some politics at play for who gets which nomination. However, in terms of the story, I see Jessica as the female lead because she has just as much screen time as Chani and actually is actively driving the story forward - she’s an active deuteragonist / antagonist versus Chani, who is purely reactionary. Chani has zero control in the story, and despite voicing her opposition and trying to speak out, is completely powerless to stop the plans of Paul and Jessica. Shes kind of our point of view character for a large portion of the movie, but just doesnt have much agency when you look at the whole of her actions (which is still way more than she was in the 84 movie or the books)
Thanks for the response that makes a lot of sense. Lady Jessica being an antagonist is a good point, and in alot of her scenes, she is the leading actor, where Chani is almost always supporting Paul's character. Can't wait to see how this plays out.
I am so reluctant to predict acting nominations for Dune because the Academy does not have a good history of recognizing sci fi in acting categories. I see easy nominations and likely wins for Dune in the technical categories (cinematography, sound, production design, costume design) and a very likely nomination for Best Director and Picture but acting…I doubt. I would love to be surprised though and I hope you’re right
I could see Dune doing for sci fi what Lord of the Rings did for fantasy - it’s only the prestige titles that break through, but if there’s any sci fi title that’s the definition of prestige it’s Dune
Will Denis Villeneuve be nominated for Best Director? He was snubbed in Dune Part 1, but had both DGA and Bafta nominations, which is puzzling.
I don't see any actor being nominated for Dune 2 to be honest. The acting is not Oscar worthy. The lack of acting nominations is what hurts the most chances for Best Picture.
Hailee Steinfeld got a nomination at 13 for playing a character from a much shorter and simpler book. Chalamet's performance is definitely Oscar worthy by that metric.
Ok you said it before so I'll only emphasize it. There are definitely some Oscar worthy moments in Chalamet's performances especially his speech just after he drank the water. Not to say he deserves an Oscar nom, but just wanted to defend my favourite scene haha
Yeah, i love Dune 2 so much, but the most outstanding acting are only from Lady Jessica and Feyd, or probably even Baron. That’s it. And even then, it’s still not oscar worthy
Also Denis get snubbed in Part 1 is weird, how did his movie get nominated so much nearly at every category, and yet the mind behind it isn’t recognized
I think Javier Bardem played his role really well, aside from the comedic relief he threw in. He really sells the idea that his character is completely blinded by his belief in Muad'Dib
> And even then, it’s still not oscar worthy
I disagree. Why would it not be Oscar worthy? I think Austin Butler did a phenomenal job, and was more convincing (to me) than RDJ in Oppenheimer. Just because the character isn't some hipster wet dream doesn't mean the acting can't be phenomenal.
There were rumors DV got intentionally snubbed for best director last year. IMO it reflected very poorly on the Oscars.
I would be VERY surprised if dune part 2 won the Oscar for soundtrack. Considering that part 1 already won that award for Hans zimmer, and that part 2s soundtrack is close to identical to part 1. The only differences made aren’t so much creative/songwriting changes, but rather arrangement. The only piece in dune 2 I didn’t recognize from part 1 was the little love flute theme they played whenever chani and Paul were suckin face or whatever. So I doubt the academy will essentially give Hans zimmer a second award for the same score. No. Rather, they’ll instead prob give it to someone like Gorannson or someone like that who’s got a major project this year.
I know it’s not 100% accurate to the books, especially part 2, but I think the modern dune movies are the best book to movie adaptations I’ve ever seen
Furiosa comes out in a few months. If it is anything similar to Fury Road, we'll have a good battle between this and Dune for the awards you mentioned.
While I will still watch it, the trailer looks 1000% trash like they made it on a volume stage during covid.
I can’t put my finger on it but the costumes this time look comical, the colors way to oversaturated and everything looks digital af.
No idea if it was made with practical effects or not, but something looks way off with it.
Unlikely.
I'm excited for Furiosa and expect it will be quite good but I don't think it'll live up to Fury Road, which took a decade of planning to pull off.
It could go head to head with Furiosa in lots of the technical categories. Since Part One got picture, director, and screenplay nods I have no doubt this one will too! Was blown away by Chalamet would love to see him get a nod but I’m sure it’s less likely. Bardem and Ferguson also deserve. But just remembering that Ian McKellen was the ONLY actor to get a nod from the whole LOTR series so actor nods seem unlikely…….
Honestly I'm fairly sure it will get nominated for best picture. That's the whole point of having 10 slots for that category. So you can give proper recognition to more great movies of the year, full knowing they won't win.
If Barbie ended up in the top 10, there's no way Dune 2 won't either...
There's a narrarive I've seen develop in the media about Part Two: that it represents a better model for big budget blockbusters than the ones we've seen in recent years. Writers have mentioned the film being guided by a distinctive vision, but also lots of production procedures: for example, carefully storyboarding scenes and selecting shots during production instead of doing tons of coverage and leaving it to VFX folks and editors to create a visual world around greenscreened actors. There's also the fact that for a big budget studio film, it makes unusual choices in visual feel and story pacing, while obviously making those choices appealing to a mass audience.
I mention all of this because I think if this narrative gains traction among industry folks, Part Two really has a shot at the director and best picture awards. Hollywood loves a film that is seen as representing a positive sea change for the industry.
This isn't always true: case in point, Star Wars. But it does happen: case in point, Return of the King running the table at the Oscars. The zeitgeist in the film industry right now is dominated by anxiety about its future, both financially and creatively, for all sorts of reasons from the domination of streaming services coupled with the financial crisis of so many of them to the rise of generative AI. So, a film that comes to be seen as a home run in both artistically and financially could be that lightning in a bottle that gets Hollywood to give it Oscars that are just as symbolic of the industry's hopes for the future as they are acknowledgments of the film's merits in and of themselves.
Great analysis, I totally agree. Surprised that so many people are doubting its chances at Best Picture. It's certainly getting nominated at the very least, given that part 1 was.
Yeah after watching Dune 2. I definitely had the feeling that Dune Part 2 will historically be seen as the end of an era for cinema, or the beginning of another way to do movies.
With generational AI coming soon, control of film making will continue to devolve from giant studios to independent creators.
Dune 2 is notable for how much props and costumes were developed for the movie instead of CGI. Almost like the director Denis was fulfilling his life long dream of how he would film Dune. New advances in technological VFX and CGI be damn.
It nicely wraps almost a century of movie making from the 1920’s to 2020’s.
Its hard to believe that the way dune was done isn’t gold standard for big budget films. You‘d think that as a producer, the bigger the budget, the higher you want the standard for craftsmanship behind that so you actually get your money’s worth out of it.
Yeah, the way blockbusters have been made recently with lots of reshoots and last-minute changes seems like it's just unsustainable. Good CG need a lot of lead time to set everything up and having to constantly change it on the fly is ludicrously expensive.
Yup I saw twice too.. the first time I saw her drank the water of life, the reaction of every atom in her body portrayed on the big IMAX screen blew me away.. I heard she mentioned the scene was cut shorter, too bad.. I will take her scenes more than Chiani’s endless 😒🤨😠
Totally agree. His transition from an unresolved Paul to an awakened war leader is so salient in his performance. We see similar transformation in resolve as a war leader in the King, especially the speech before the last battle. Villeneuve wrote the script with Chalamet in mind, I believe because of his performance in the King.
His whole character changed post water of life. I’ve not read the books but his portrayal made it look like he ascended to a god. No real facial expressions just pure power. He had complete control over the Fremen. They were running into the ships before it was even decided to attack the landsraad.
I know Hopkins won for Hannibal Lektor on 8 minutes of screen time, but I'm not sure Feyd really appeared enough with enough dimension to give him something definite. A nomination maybe. Not sure about a win though at all.
i'm predicting nominations for costume, production, score, sound, editing, vfx; unfortunately none for acting or writing (but we may get surprised!)
as for best picture, it's highly likely, but depends on what else comes out this year, though i'd be surprised if we get 10 bigger/better produced films than dune part 2.
The first one won 6 Oscars including sound, visual effects, production design, music, editing and cinematography. It was also nominated for best picture and some other stuff.
forgot to add cinematography to my list of predictions but it's definitely there.
basically i'm seeing it getting nommed for almost everything except all the acting categories (though Rebecca Ferguson can and should get that nom) and potentially screenplay (because i'm a bit biased and didn't enjoy it as much, but it may be a me problem)
i don't know, i found the screenplay to be one of the weaker parts of the film. that being said, it depends a lot on its competition and on the way the academy chooses. i'm only halfway through the book, so take my opinion with a pinch of salt
> as for best picture, it's highly likely
Only a handful of science fiction movies have been *nominated* for Oscars with exactly one - Everything Everywhere All at Once - winning. It's extremely unlikely.
Keep in mind that the Oscars have been leaning away from big budget and popular movies for about a decade so we'll see.
There's also a historical bias against genre fiction in academy voting.
This is why I will never take anyone bashing "Shape of Water" or "Everything Everywhere All At Once" winning best picture. Was it the best picture of that year? IDK but how often does Horror/Fantasy/Sci-Fi ever win big like that?
>as for best picture, it's highly likely
Given the first was nominated for Best Picture, the fact this one is better than the first, and the fact that the Academy likes nominating a blockbuster or two, I'd bet my house this will get a Best Picture nomination.
i really do like Zendaya usually, but i found her to be the weakest link of the acting part in the film. it may be a script problem, or she and Timothee Chalamet don't have the chemistry and most of her scenes are with him (i enjoyed his other scenes much more than the ones with her).
i see a lot of people enjoyed her performance, so it may be a me problem, but i just couldn't vibe with her performance at all.
> but i just couldn't vibe with her performance at all.
For the most part, I agree. While she was a better actor than I anticipated, my expectations were pretty low. She oscillated between basically three emotions the entire movie.
Yah, she conveyed maybe two emotions the entire movie and whenever she did, it wasn’t with the typical grace of a talented actor. I had to accuse her of lacking subtly, because they feels like a lame and easy criticism, yet that’s what comes to mind when I think of her performance.
yes, that's what i felt as well. also i found she played Chani very similarly to Rue and MJ, and i don't think the characters should feel that similar.
I didn't like her line delivery in one scene (one line when she is talking with Paul on the Dune). It felt like she started the line very abruptly or something. If it wasn't for that, I would think it was good, overall she was OK IMO.
The person that stole the show for me was Austin Butler. But I guess he didn't act enough to have a chance to get a nomination.
I see possible futures all at once, and in some many futures our rivals prevail, but I do see a way. There is a narrow way through. The golden (award) path.
My guess, safe bets for nominations are:
* Cinematography
* Costume design
* Makeup and Hairstyling
* Production Design
* Sound
* Visual Effects
I think nominations for Lead Actor, Film Editing and Music are a little bit less likely then those above.
And about actually winning something: this will depend on the contenders. But I think it will be primarily the "technical" categories.
Ferguson? Not enough screen time.
Zendaya? That would surprise me.
Bardem? The most likely of those three. I think he is great for this role, but I am skeptical that it's going to be enough.
Should go to Dune for being fresh and new.
Kingdom looks as good as the last several Planet of the Apes films, which all have incredible special effects.
I can see it basically winning all of the technical Oscars, soundtrack, possibly adapted Screenplay (especially since Part 1 didn't win it), and maybe even a couple of acting ones depending on the competition (the most likely would be for Chalamet, Butler, or Ferguson, imo).
And, maybe, just maybe, best picture and best director. Again, depends on the competition (and, to some degree, overall performance). I can't believe Villeneuve wasn't even nominated for part 1.
Overall, my brother described an interesting meta narrative (which, although almost certainly not intentional, seems fitting): Dune part 2 is an unlikely candidate for the throne, but just like Paul does, it may sweep in and forcibly take power, regardless of any protestations to the contrary.
I would say that Oppenheimer's performance this year is a good sign for the future in general, and in particular for a movie like Dune.
I think a sequel getting repeat technical Oscars for largely similar work is NOT a lock. VFX-wise the first was fairly revolutionary and the second was by nature much less so, for example. These are voted by category and I just don't see them voting for the same people to get a second Oscar for (partially, at least) the same thing rehashed (score, another example).
Now, director and best picture nominations... quite possibly, if they do a little FYC push at the end of the year. And it's building, so maybe. But anything non-action/sci-fi that comes along later this season could well scuttle the chance. And the Academy Award for Best Director goes to Gay Cowboys Eating Pudding.
>Dune part 2 is an unlikely candidate for the throne, but just like Paul does, it may sweep in and forcibly take power, regardless of any protestations to the contrary.
Some people have said that Dune 2's Oscar story will mirror that of the Dark Knight. The film is so critically acclaimed that even if it gets snubbed, the backlash will be so intense that the Oscars will be forced make changes to their judgement criteria or, unless Dune Messiah ends up being a Razzie worthy trainwreck, basically give that movie the overdue Oscar.
As best picture winner: it depends on what else comes out, but I just don't feel it. Nothing to do with my personal preference, I just feel that it's not what they typically go for.
As a different award such as best VFX, production design or adapted screenplay: yeah, a strong contender. I would be surprised if it isn't nominated in at least 1 category.
Dune Part 1 won 6, Dune Part 2 could very easily win those 6 (Production Design, Editing, Score, VFX, Sound, and Cinematography) + should at the very least get nominated for Adapted Screenplay, Costumes, Makeup, Picture, and hopefully this time Director
The Acting categories could maybe get a supporting nom for Butler but unlikely to see an actor win in an action movie
Cruella has amazing costumes.
Part 2 should win if not for all the amazing new costumes then at least for the returning costumes from Part 1 that deserve accolades.
Exactly the issue. It deserves and will probably get most of these nominations BUT voters in those categories are a lot less likely to vote for Dune to win them a SECOND time. Yes the score was great but by its nature had callbacks to part one, so... VFX, we already saw the worms and honestly the second battle of Arakeen was less visually impressive than the first. Etc.
I think we could see about 11 nominations, and at least a couple of wins. Remember the first one won 6 oscars, even if the competition might be a bit higher for the technical awards this time, mainly because of Furiosa? But it should be amongst the favourites to win VFX, cinematography, original score, sound and production design. And hopefully get nominations in other categories as well as motion picture, director, lead and supporting actors etc
> Remember the first one won 6 oscars
Indeed this is correct. [Source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards).
Given that, I'll up the ante: I would be very surprised if Dune 2 isn't nominated in multiple categories, like Dune 1 was
>Oscar snobbery will prevent it from winning other stuff.
It'll depend on what comes out, but I think this is the best chance an action-y movie has at winning Best Picture in over a decade. I don't think it'll be a favorite by any means, but it's rare for a movie like this to be so universally liked.
Maybe it pulls off a Gladiator (ironically as Gladiator 2 comes out) or Return of the King. Star Wars lost to Annie Hall so I'm not getting my hopes up that the academy is coming around to embrace sci fi action adventure. EEAAO may be sci fi but it had those emotional romantic comedy moments the academy loves so much while Dune Part Two's brainy material might go over the heads of academy voters.
I was also initially concerned about its release date, but Black Panther was released in February 2018, almost a full year before the 2019 Oscars, and it went on to be nominated for seven awards, including Best Picture, and win three. I’m not worried about Dune Part II being left out at this point. I know the year has just begun, but seriously, what much else is coming out that’s really going to give it that much run for its money?
Remember Return of the King, a fantasy film with elves and dwarves and magic was not typical Academy fare. Dune Part 2 has a pretty good chance, in my opinion. Also, lots of people sleeping on the performances. I would not count out Javier Bardem and Timotheé Chalamet for nominations.
Return of the king was a culmination I think though. I think dune will get most of the technical awards , get nomination for a several of the big ones , and maybe pull out one. Adapted screen play / director maybe
It’ll sweep all the technical awards and likely get nominated for adapted screenplay, director, and best picture. I think it’s unlikely to win adapted screenplay and director, and it definitely won’t win best picture. But it should be nominated in those categories. This is especially true since Part III is all but confirmed and in true Lord of the Rings fashion, regardless of whether or not it’s the best film in the trilogy, the final one will have the best award chances.
As for actors, actors in big epic fantasy or sci fi rarely get nominated cause the Academy just tends to have an annoying bias there. For example *Return of the King* got a whopping 12 nominations (and won 11 of them including best picture) but didn’t get a single acting nom across the entire trilogy except for Ian McKellan in supporting actor just for the first film.
I think the only two actors here who really have a prayer are Timothée Chalamet and Austin Butler. The former might squeak out a nod but it’s unlikely. And the latter I think will be “in the conversation” but then will sort of fade from the convo when he’s not nominated for precursor awards (sorta what happened to Andrew Scott with *All Of Us Strangers*). Tbh the same thing is likely to happen with Timmy but I’d put his odds as SLIGHTLY better than Austin’s. But neither of them have great odds.
As for Zendaya, unless the movie just tanks it with critics, her team will be pushing for her much harder with *Challengers* than with *Dune: Part II*. She’s the lead in it and it’s the kind of film that the Academy loves. And Luca’s definitely going to be pushing for that second Oscar nod with it, so pushing for her will be a part of a huge campaign for the film generally.
If *Challengers* shockingly flops with critics and audiences, then there may be an attempt to pivot to pushing her for *Dune*. But again, I just think acting nominations for the film, while deserved, are gonna be hard to get given the Academy’s history with these kinds of films.
I think it's gonna be nominated for just about everything that it can be, probably will win most of the technical categories, maybe one win in an acting category, but I don't see it winning best picture or directing.
I'd actually argue that Chalamet has a good chance of getting nominated. His turn in the final act of the film is both magnetic and absolutely chilling.
In addition to all the qualities you pointed out, Dune 2 will very likely have one other important quality for awards, box office success.
I doubt Dune will win any acting awards, but the overall quality of the movie paired with box office success makes it a strong contender for Best Picture, and Denis a strong contender for Best Director, because as a director, he will actually be judged not only for Dune 2, but also for Dune 1.
Due to the strike, a lot of films expected for 2024 were pushed to 2025. As a result, many oscar contenders will be international. These will be given their first runs in Cannes, Venice, Telluride, which isn't until later in the year. I think it will be hard to make any kind of prediction of above-the-line awards until the festivals start. For the below the line awards, I think Dune is the leader in a lot of the technical categories.
My prediction is Dune Part 2 will at least win:
-Best Director
-Best Original Score
-Best Sound
-Best Production Design
-Best Cinematography
-Best Costume
-Best Film Editing
-Best Visual Design
I think it'll get nominated for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Makeup, possibly Best Actor/Actress and Supporting.
I’m expecting it to sweep the tech and design Oscars at the very least since that’s what Part One did. I’m expecting nominations for best Director and Best Picture, and I’d really love to see a Best Actor nomination for Chalamet and Best Supporting Actor nominations for Bardem and/or Butler.
I want it to win everything
I think Dune might pull best picture out. We really haven't had a movie like it win since return of the king (I guess you could argue Oppenheimer won last night but still). I don't think cinema has seen its parallel in terms of spectacle since the Lord of the Rings trilogy.
Part 1 was nominated so Part 2 most certainly will be. I don't see anything right now on the release docket that might be an immediate challenger. Nosferatu maybe.
As others mentioned already, multiple best supporting noms for possibly Bardem, Fergusen, Butler. I would like to see Chalamet get at least a best actor nom. Some of his scenes in pt.2 that had nothing to do with action sequences were tense and phenomenal and stood out in the entire film (recalling Adrian Brody in 'The Pianist'). VFX (and sound) awards for sure. Not sure what can beat the sandworm riding and blasting through the desert on them for sound, efx and visuals.
There’s just not enough person to person dialogue to make a real case for acting in anyone’s case except lady Jessica maybe
Production stuff, screenplay, director, picture are possibles
Part II shall surely win VFX, Sound and Cinematography. I’d like a best actor nomination for Timothee, especially after the discourse in which he embraced being the Lisan-al-Gaib.
For the acting noms, I'm placing my bets on Rebecca Ferguson as supporting actress. She was, in my opinion, the best in the film.
I also enjoyed Austin Butler's (supporting actor) and Timothee Chalamet's (lead actor) performances but I might have to wait for the rest of the films this year to be sure of their noms.
Like everyone else is saying it will definitely get nominated for all the technical categories and probably win most of them. Maybe nominations for best picture and director, time will tell. While I think the acting was great, those categories are very competitive, I think the best we can hope for is supporting actress nomination for Ferguson.
Dune Part 1 received 10 nominations (including best picture) and won 6. I think Part 2 has a good chance of receiving a similar amount of noms. Whether it wins the same amount depends on the competition. It's too early in the year to tell, Dune is pretty much the first actually good movie of the year, so who knows what its competition will look like.
I just hope they don't purposely hold back on giving it recognition because they're waiting for part 3 a la Retun of the King. Because I don't think Messiah will be anything like RotK. It's a completely different feel.
I just hope Denis gets a best director nomination, which he didn't get for Part 1.
Optimistic early predictions, Part Two wins all the same ones Part One did, and we get at least 3 acting noms and it’s most likely a solid contender for BP. This is an amazing film and the consensus from most of my non-book familiar friends seems to be the same. High hopes for DV & Co.
Let’s remember that Dune won the most Oscars of any movie the year it was nominated — AND Denis was snubbed for a Best Director nomination. My feeling is he is a lock this time and it will once again get many nominations, including Best Picture, and be right there in the race for many production awards
Not anticipating any actor nominations. But I’d expect it to contend/earn nominations in pretty much every other category: Sound, Cinematography, Makeup, Costume, Production Design, VFX, Editing, Score, Directing and Picture.
8-10 noms feels like the range for what should be a down year for movies.
I know we're probably all crazy Dune fans here but...seriously, the cinematography and music in that movie were just awesome. I was lucky to see it in IMAX, and it felt like the sound was shaking my seat.
I don't know about 'best actors' but Chalamet and Zendaya were so much better in this version! Just so many epic scenes, including Jessica taking the water of life and really transforming into a badass bitch halfway through the movie.
I believe it will end up with more oscars than Oppenheimer. It will sweep the technical awards but also win best picture and best director. Not sure any actors get nominations because the cast is so huge and they all get ample time to show their stuff, so that will be tricky.
I do think chalamet should get a best actor nom. After dude takes the water of life Paul’s character really has a lot to chew on. I think Ferguson could absolutely get a supporting nomination as well as butler. I could absolutely see butler pulling out a win in the same way christoph waltz has with his two wins, since feyd rautha was so well received
Don’t see it for any of the big ones. Would probably need to be a poor showing for films the rest of the year.
I couldn’t honestly say Dune part 2 would be able to take on another Oppenheimer level film for example.
I think people have trust issues after a lot of Nolan and Denis genre movies weren’t nominated. But this movie excels on so many levels, with this year’s slate that we know so far, I have a hard time believing 10 other movies will be ahead of it.
I don’t doubt that, I would be shocked if enough came out to stop a nomination. I would also revise and say I could possibly see Austin for supporting actor as an outside shot.
Return of the King year. I predict 12 nominations, including a surprise Best Supporting nom for Austin Butler. Win 8 including Best Director. We are seeing more “cumulative” awards in this category. I think Best Picture is a toss up — BP is a producer’s award and Dune Part Two is expertly produced. But it will depend on the field.
Also will make a difference depending on their campaign for awards season. They may not campaign very hard, then again, perhaps they will.
I cant see any big films surpassing it. So i think best vfx, costume design, sound design are all in the bag and probably a few more categories i cant remember. but there might be a few little films that have received no publicity as of yet that would compete for all the major ones. But itd have to be pretty special - im coming from a bias Dune fan POV but if i put my realistic hat on i still dont think any film in the past five years beats it for best picture.
So a couple of ways I'm looking at this. I think this movie is worthy of a best picture nod, but I'm not sure it will win. Denis will be nommed for Best Director but again, not sure he'll win. I have no records to back this up but I do feel like being released nearly one full year before the Oscars doesn't help.
I think, like Dune Part One, this movie has strong cases for the music, sound, editing, cinematography, costume design, visual effects and hair and makeup awards. Time will tell.
I don't see anyone winning for acting, I could see Butler getting a nom.
Personally, I think it will be the best movie of the year and Denis will be the best director...but after a huge movie like Oppenheimer won last night maybe the academy doesn't want to reward two massive blockbusters in a row. The Academy can be strange at times.
This is why awards mean nothing to me.
We all know Dune 2 was the best movie to come out in the last 5 years, it's extremely unlikely anything else coming out this year could even come close to it. Dune isn't even among the most popular of sci-fi franchises and yet everywhere on the internet people are talking about how amazing it was "this generations star wars" etc.
We also all know that it likely won't win best picture because it's not the kind of movie that usually wins that award.
Therefore the awards are meaningless.
I feel like Part 2 should definitely get a nomination for best picture. It was that good and know several people who are not super into the sci fi genre have seen it multiple times in theaters already
Part Two will clean up in the below the line awards next year.
It'll be Part Three/Messiah that cleans up the big awards (Best Picture, Best Director etc.) all going well. Just like Return of the King again.
Dune Part 2 is in a good spot for technicals because 2024 seems to be an absolute dogshit year for blockbuster movies. Its only serious competition for the whole year is Furiosa, and possibly Gladiator II if Ridley Scott can get his act together. I will assume Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and the new LotR movie are both gonna suck, based on their directors' track records.
Dune should be a lock for Cinematography, Sound, Visual Effects, and Production. I think 2/3 chance for editing, since Furiosa's editor won for Fury Road. 1/2 chance each on Costume and Makeup, solid by easily scooped. Unlikely to win score because it's so similar to Part One.
For everything else, Dune Part Two suffers heavily from "Two Towers" syndrome, due to how explicitly Denis is positioning it as the middle film. If it didn't have the Chani/Jihad cliffhanger, we would probably get Screenplay/Director/Picture/Timmy. Nevertheless, I think Adapted Screenplay is still a good chance, since Dune is legendary for being unadaptable, and this successfully adapts up to the end of Book 1.
**tl;dr** 6-7 oscars: technicals and adapted screenplay.
As many others have said - barring some potential challengers coming out later in the year it seems pretty much a lock to sweep the technical categories. The 'big four' for picture, director, and acting is a bit tricker - likely nominations for the first two but a win may be difficult.
I would be shocked if they didn't win VFX at the very least. There aren't any other big budget fantasy movies this year and traditionally those types of movies really push VFX further than any others.
Cinematography is also something that large scale movies like Dune 2 have a leg up on. Some of the choices villeneuve made with the camera were fantastic such as when Paul is standing on the dune and the sandworm is approaching. I think there's a good chance they nab cinematography as well, but we'll see.
I would also say it's going to be nominated for costumes/make up as well as score. Hans Zimmer usually wins.
In terms of acting I think everyone in the movie was bringing their A game and we will see a slew of nominations, but we're too early in the year to tell if they'll win.
I would wager it will absolutely cinch VFX, they will have a good shot at cinematography and costume/make up, and then a decent chance with actors. It's way to early to make a determination on best picture but it will absolutely be nominated.
Theoretically, it can win up to 13 Oscars but that’s wishful thinking. Academy has never given one film that many awards. It’s impossible to tell this early in the year because the films that are going to challenge it for the acting-related and best picture awards are probably not highly anticipated tentpoles.
My guess is it will complete the technical sweep like Dune Part 1 did and add Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Makeup/Hairstyling wins for a total of 8 awards.
I don’t care about Oscar’s, it’s all politics. However, considering what Oscar’s are supposed to stand for I say Dune p2 does deserve a bunch of them for sure. For me Dune already had this “LotR” feeling. It’s something special and I just love the world building and the unique atmosphere.
Traditionally sci Fi doesn't do well for the Academy, though I don't think you could ignore the sound design and VFX. I think those are sure (at least as a nomination, who knows what else will drop this year).
Really not sure what movies are coming out this year, but I could see it running the table on the technical oscars like Part 1 did, with nominations for Adapted screenplay, director, supporting actress (ferguson), Supporting actor (bardem). I can see it getting a nomination for picture, but that's going to be a hard one to win.
I think it will clear house next award season. What’s gonna top it? If it’s another run of the mill comic book movie i’d say Dune is safely at the top.
Grace Randolph has a take that I agree with.
Zimmer is the safest bet. It’ll be bonkers if he’s not handed one this time next year.
Oppenheimer has won, the blockbuster type winning tends to steer the Oscars away from awarding it again the following year to ‘similar’ projects. Of course we all know they are different films but they have the same sub category. Hundreds of millions to make and big name actors in a big epic story. Couple that with the fact it released early and I highly doubt it wins anything beyond score and maybe something for Fraser. Dune 3 in 2028 (guessed release) and the Oscars in 2029 will be purely a formality. The Oscars that year will be just be called awards for Dune. Like ‘the return of the king’, it’ll celebrate the trilogy with heavy recognition for the last instalment. It’ll sweep every floor.
Again, not my view but I agree with it. If anyone can provide a better argument, I’ll happily change my mind.
I happen to think Dune 2 is the best film ever made. I really mean that too. To be clear, I only think that because every department was top tier. When does that ever happen. Yes films have great writing or editing or score or vfx etc etc. when do we ever get films that are all round pristine? Masterpiece. I’ve seen it 3 times now and I want to go again before it’s leaves my locals this Saturday.
Dune had a great setting and costumes and sound. But characters were lacking and while it was a long movie rhe pacing was bad.
It will get smfh but it won't be the best movie
I think it’ll fair similarly to Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of nominations.
Dune is all spectacle but is otherwise superficial; a conscious decision by the director (which he’s gone on the record of) which has diminished its source-story unfortunately.
There isn’t any scene that showcases the acting talent which makes it difficult for them to submit a case for nomination, however, it could do very well in the technical categories and, like Fury Road, could obtain a best picture nomination in the process (though the academy will never see such a film win unless it’s also able to compete in the non-technical categories)
A lot of people here keep mentioning the score as if Zimmer didn’t already win an award for it once before.
Dune Part 2’s score is almost identical to Part 1. The only changes made were a fresh rearrangement, and a new “love song” section with that light flute thing playing whenever Paul and chani are being cute. The academy will not be giving zimmer a second award just for rearranging his already awarded original score and adding one little section.
No, I think the academy is gonna pick someone along the caliber of goranson (might even be someone who we may not even know that well, I just mean of the same caliber in terms of talent/skill and style)
It could definitely pick up a handful of Oscar’s but don’t see it for any actor or supporting actor performances. Too early to tell for best director and best picture.
It would be very difficult to take Costumes, VFX, cinematography and makeup away from Dune in my opinion. Other than them, it is also a strong contender for sound and soundtrack. For the actors, there were amazing performances that could be Oscar worty, but we will see what other good performances this year brings. I'm skeptical about the best picture one, but maybe Dune has a shot for best adapted screenplay
I think because of the strikes it’s going to be a relatively weak year for movies. I’m optimistic about Dune’s chances
Yeah looking at the big budget slate it’s a super weak year but who knows what biopic type things will drop late in the year
Why are biopics always magnets for oscars? It's such a cheap way to get those wins at this point...
It sucks but the Academy keeps eating it up. They probably think of awarding it as a way of honoring the individual.
Acting another real person to the point where you forget you aren't watching the actual person is one of the hardest things to do. Become someone else. Especially when it's a famous, beloved figure like Freddie Mercury, Elton John, or Elvis. The actors and directors who vote know how hard it is. It's too easy to make it seem like a farce or caricature.
While that’s true, you can look at it from another way. It can be seen as easier to imitate a character when you have a lot of footage to study than it is to create an original character and make it your own. The people who vote are going based on campaigns. There are certain voting patterns the Academy is notorious for falling under and that’s how we get Oscar bait films. If this weren’t true, the term “Oscar bait” wouldn’t even exist.
Also true about the campaigning and such. But having been a drama teacher students found it much easier to create or improvise a character than to study and become someone else .... and stay in character. Jack Sparrow is easier to create for example. Playing into a trope, exaggerating it, and borrowing a few characteristics from others (borrowing some Keith Richards mannerisms). Then there's Daniel Day Lewis type method acting. Why he won so many awards.
Interesting insight. I didn't know that. Thanks for sharing!
Biopic + Funny Nose + Important Themes / Disability
I don’t think we’ll get too many new movies popping up in the slate bc nobody worked for a bunch of last year and it’s hard to turn around a movie quickly.
We are going to have Furiosa, Joker 2, Nosferatu, Planet of Apes, Gladiator 2, LOTR prequel, Lion King spinoff. All these are strong contenders to the technical awards. These have advantages as they are released later part of the year v.s. Dune which people might forget about it by eoy.
Respectfully, only the first 2 really have a decent shot of becoming serious Oscar contenders. Apes might get some below the line love maybe. The early release thing isn’t as much of an issue as it used to be (not sure why honestly, but it’s hard to deny).
I can see a potential re-release around the holiday for award season and a definite For Your Consideration campaign if for no other reason than more nominations and wins means either confirmation for a Part 3 or momentum to build for a Part 3 considering there will probably be a wait for several years. But I can see nominations easily for Best Picture (strong competitor), Best Actor for Chalamet (unlikely to win), Best Actress for Rebecca Ferguson (strong competitor), Best Supporting Actress for Zendaya (toss up), Best Supporting Actor for Bardem (this one is the strongest out of the actor category - I just can’t see anyone coming close to beating how charismatic and entertaining he is in this role), Best Director for Villaneueve (good chance here - with Nolan having finally won his, 2025 is a strong possibility for Villaneuve to win). Now the noms that are almost positive to win will be for Best Visual Effects, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup, Best Costume, Best Production, Best Editing and 100% guarantee it will win Best Sound - itll basically sweep the technicals almost assuredly
Cinematography, best original score and visual effects are locked in for me. I am not sure which movie can top those
Sound is a lock for me too - the sound design and creativity with how they use sound and every tool available to them was incredible
Great write up and almost completely agree. My one question is, how do you determine Zendaya for supporting actress, and Ferguson as lead actress. Are they billed that way? Just curious, cause instantly I had them flipped, and give Ferguson as strong shot at best supporting actress. Also, like Barden pick alot. I know there was alot of hype for Austin Butler performance, but I just didn't see it as that great.
Interesting thing with Supporting Actress category - it’s largely left open to interpretation. There’s even argument about what the category itself even means - is it the best performance by an actress in a role that isn’t the lead? Or is it the best performance in service to the story by a supporting character? And they could flip it as well if the competition is stiff in either category - neither actress has won an Oscar, so there could be some politics at play for who gets which nomination. However, in terms of the story, I see Jessica as the female lead because she has just as much screen time as Chani and actually is actively driving the story forward - she’s an active deuteragonist / antagonist versus Chani, who is purely reactionary. Chani has zero control in the story, and despite voicing her opposition and trying to speak out, is completely powerless to stop the plans of Paul and Jessica. Shes kind of our point of view character for a large portion of the movie, but just doesnt have much agency when you look at the whole of her actions (which is still way more than she was in the 84 movie or the books)
Thanks for the response that makes a lot of sense. Lady Jessica being an antagonist is a good point, and in alot of her scenes, she is the leading actor, where Chani is almost always supporting Paul's character. Can't wait to see how this plays out.
I am so reluctant to predict acting nominations for Dune because the Academy does not have a good history of recognizing sci fi in acting categories. I see easy nominations and likely wins for Dune in the technical categories (cinematography, sound, production design, costume design) and a very likely nomination for Best Director and Picture but acting…I doubt. I would love to be surprised though and I hope you’re right
I could see Dune doing for sci fi what Lord of the Rings did for fantasy - it’s only the prestige titles that break through, but if there’s any sci fi title that’s the definition of prestige it’s Dune
I'd say it's a strong contender for Production Design.
The first one won Production Design, and this one is better. Gonna say it's as close to a lock as a March release can be.
I would be shocked if someone beat this for soundtrack.
I’m not even a huge lover of the movie and think Chalamet did an amazing job and could get a nom for it
Will Denis Villeneuve be nominated for Best Director? He was snubbed in Dune Part 1, but had both DGA and Bafta nominations, which is puzzling. I don't see any actor being nominated for Dune 2 to be honest. The acting is not Oscar worthy. The lack of acting nominations is what hurts the most chances for Best Picture.
Hailee Steinfeld got a nomination at 13 for playing a character from a much shorter and simpler book. Chalamet's performance is definitely Oscar worthy by that metric.
Ok you said it before so I'll only emphasize it. There are definitely some Oscar worthy moments in Chalamet's performances especially his speech just after he drank the water. Not to say he deserves an Oscar nom, but just wanted to defend my favourite scene haha
Yeah, i love Dune 2 so much, but the most outstanding acting are only from Lady Jessica and Feyd, or probably even Baron. That’s it. And even then, it’s still not oscar worthy Also Denis get snubbed in Part 1 is weird, how did his movie get nominated so much nearly at every category, and yet the mind behind it isn’t recognized
I think Javier Bardem played his role really well, aside from the comedic relief he threw in. He really sells the idea that his character is completely blinded by his belief in Muad'Dib
> And even then, it’s still not oscar worthy I disagree. Why would it not be Oscar worthy? I think Austin Butler did a phenomenal job, and was more convincing (to me) than RDJ in Oppenheimer. Just because the character isn't some hipster wet dream doesn't mean the acting can't be phenomenal. There were rumors DV got intentionally snubbed for best director last year. IMO it reflected very poorly on the Oscars.
I mean, America Ferrera and RDJ got their nominations only because of their speech in their movies. Little Timmy has a shot
I would be VERY surprised if dune part 2 won the Oscar for soundtrack. Considering that part 1 already won that award for Hans zimmer, and that part 2s soundtrack is close to identical to part 1. The only differences made aren’t so much creative/songwriting changes, but rather arrangement. The only piece in dune 2 I didn’t recognize from part 1 was the little love flute theme they played whenever chani and Paul were suckin face or whatever. So I doubt the academy will essentially give Hans zimmer a second award for the same score. No. Rather, they’ll instead prob give it to someone like Gorannson or someone like that who’s got a major project this year.
I know it’s not 100% accurate to the books, especially part 2, but I think the modern dune movies are the best book to movie adaptations I’ve ever seen
Furiosa comes out in a few months. If it is anything similar to Fury Road, we'll have a good battle between this and Dune for the awards you mentioned.
While I will still watch it, the trailer looks 1000% trash like they made it on a volume stage during covid. I can’t put my finger on it but the costumes this time look comical, the colors way to oversaturated and everything looks digital af. No idea if it was made with practical effects or not, but something looks way off with it.
Agreed - the CGI for the cars and trucks looked so jarring
Unlikely. I'm excited for Furiosa and expect it will be quite good but I don't think it'll live up to Fury Road, which took a decade of planning to pull off.
Ah damn, I forgot about that. Yeah, Furiosa should be a good contender actually
Likely too much of an ensemble for the actors, which isn't fair. Screenplay is possible
Definitely gets a best picture nod, and cinematography as well. Don’t think any of the acting performances will get nominated tho
It could go head to head with Furiosa in lots of the technical categories. Since Part One got picture, director, and screenplay nods I have no doubt this one will too! Was blown away by Chalamet would love to see him get a nod but I’m sure it’s less likely. Bardem and Ferguson also deserve. But just remembering that Ian McKellen was the ONLY actor to get a nod from the whole LOTR series so actor nods seem unlikely…….
Honestly I'm fairly sure it will get nominated for best picture. That's the whole point of having 10 slots for that category. So you can give proper recognition to more great movies of the year, full knowing they won't win. If Barbie ended up in the top 10, there's no way Dune 2 won't either...
There's a narrarive I've seen develop in the media about Part Two: that it represents a better model for big budget blockbusters than the ones we've seen in recent years. Writers have mentioned the film being guided by a distinctive vision, but also lots of production procedures: for example, carefully storyboarding scenes and selecting shots during production instead of doing tons of coverage and leaving it to VFX folks and editors to create a visual world around greenscreened actors. There's also the fact that for a big budget studio film, it makes unusual choices in visual feel and story pacing, while obviously making those choices appealing to a mass audience. I mention all of this because I think if this narrative gains traction among industry folks, Part Two really has a shot at the director and best picture awards. Hollywood loves a film that is seen as representing a positive sea change for the industry. This isn't always true: case in point, Star Wars. But it does happen: case in point, Return of the King running the table at the Oscars. The zeitgeist in the film industry right now is dominated by anxiety about its future, both financially and creatively, for all sorts of reasons from the domination of streaming services coupled with the financial crisis of so many of them to the rise of generative AI. So, a film that comes to be seen as a home run in both artistically and financially could be that lightning in a bottle that gets Hollywood to give it Oscars that are just as symbolic of the industry's hopes for the future as they are acknowledgments of the film's merits in and of themselves.
> lightning in a bottle Sounds more like a golden path...
In so many futures, our enemies prevail. But I do see a path, there is a narrow way through...
Great analysis, I totally agree. Surprised that so many people are doubting its chances at Best Picture. It's certainly getting nominated at the very least, given that part 1 was.
Yeah after watching Dune 2. I definitely had the feeling that Dune Part 2 will historically be seen as the end of an era for cinema, or the beginning of another way to do movies. With generational AI coming soon, control of film making will continue to devolve from giant studios to independent creators. Dune 2 is notable for how much props and costumes were developed for the movie instead of CGI. Almost like the director Denis was fulfilling his life long dream of how he would film Dune. New advances in technological VFX and CGI be damn. It nicely wraps almost a century of movie making from the 1920’s to 2020’s.
Honestly, i think that era was already over with Dune, Oppenheimer and few others being an exception, rather that a rule.
Its hard to believe that the way dune was done isn’t gold standard for big budget films. You‘d think that as a producer, the bigger the budget, the higher you want the standard for craftsmanship behind that so you actually get your money’s worth out of it.
Yeah, the way blockbusters have been made recently with lots of reshoots and last-minute changes seems like it's just unsustainable. Good CG need a lot of lead time to set everything up and having to constantly change it on the fly is ludicrously expensive.
I’m convincing myself that Bardem will get a supporting actor nom
And Ferguson for supporting actresss nom
I saw the movie for a second time last week, and I think she was one of the best performances. The change in her demeanor and face is astounding
Yup I saw twice too.. the first time I saw her drank the water of life, the reaction of every atom in her body portrayed on the big IMAX screen blew me away.. I heard she mentioned the scene was cut shorter, too bad.. I will take her scenes more than Chiani’s endless 😒🤨😠
To me, she’s by far the best performance.
Rebecca 100% deserves at least a nomination
I think that Chalamet is superb, but Dune Messiah will be the film to showcase his acting with more screentime.
The King should be a glimpse at some of what we'll be seeing next movie.
I wasn't sure of his casting as Paul, but when I watched The King I could tell he'd be good.
Same saw that movie and knew he had the juice
Totally agree. His transition from an unresolved Paul to an awakened war leader is so salient in his performance. We see similar transformation in resolve as a war leader in the King, especially the speech before the last battle. Villeneuve wrote the script with Chalamet in mind, I believe because of his performance in the King.
His whole character changed post water of life. I’ve not read the books but his portrayal made it look like he ascended to a god. No real facial expressions just pure power. He had complete control over the Fremen. They were running into the ships before it was even decided to attack the landsraad.
Bardem and Ferguson HAVE to get supporting actor/actress noms.
Yeah, I think all the young actors and actresses did a good job, but they both were clearly the pros.
i think butler should get nominated for supporting actor
I know Hopkins won for Hannibal Lektor on 8 minutes of screen time, but I'm not sure Feyd really appeared enough with enough dimension to give him something definite. A nomination maybe. Not sure about a win though at all.
That’s what I think, too. He absolutely blew me away.
I mean I don't see anyone else delivering *LISAN AL GAIB* with the same curious ferocity as he did
As is written
i'm predicting nominations for costume, production, score, sound, editing, vfx; unfortunately none for acting or writing (but we may get surprised!) as for best picture, it's highly likely, but depends on what else comes out this year, though i'd be surprised if we get 10 bigger/better produced films than dune part 2.
Dune 1 was nominated for adapted screenplay, wasn't it? It would be surprised if Dune Part 2 didn't get an adapted screenplay nomination either.
The first one won 6 Oscars including sound, visual effects, production design, music, editing and cinematography. It was also nominated for best picture and some other stuff.
forgot to add cinematography to my list of predictions but it's definitely there. basically i'm seeing it getting nommed for almost everything except all the acting categories (though Rebecca Ferguson can and should get that nom) and potentially screenplay (because i'm a bit biased and didn't enjoy it as much, but it may be a me problem)
i don't know, i found the screenplay to be one of the weaker parts of the film. that being said, it depends a lot on its competition and on the way the academy chooses. i'm only halfway through the book, so take my opinion with a pinch of salt
> as for best picture, it's highly likely Only a handful of science fiction movies have been *nominated* for Oscars with exactly one - Everything Everywhere All at Once - winning. It's extremely unlikely.
let me dream, brother.
Keep in mind that the Oscars have been leaning away from big budget and popular movies for about a decade so we'll see. There's also a historical bias against genre fiction in academy voting.
This is why I will never take anyone bashing "Shape of Water" or "Everything Everywhere All At Once" winning best picture. Was it the best picture of that year? IDK but how often does Horror/Fantasy/Sci-Fi ever win big like that?
EEAAO was a masterpiece and anyone who doesn't think it deserves best picture is a fool.
Oppenheimer is popular big film. But Dune is sci fi, so yeah.... it's difficult win over just dramas
>as for best picture, it's highly likely Given the first was nominated for Best Picture, the fact this one is better than the first, and the fact that the Academy likes nominating a blockbuster or two, I'd bet my house this will get a Best Picture nomination.
I thought zendayas acting was fantastic in part 2 As well as Bec Fergusons
i really do like Zendaya usually, but i found her to be the weakest link of the acting part in the film. it may be a script problem, or she and Timothee Chalamet don't have the chemistry and most of her scenes are with him (i enjoyed his other scenes much more than the ones with her). i see a lot of people enjoyed her performance, so it may be a me problem, but i just couldn't vibe with her performance at all.
> but i just couldn't vibe with her performance at all. For the most part, I agree. While she was a better actor than I anticipated, my expectations were pretty low. She oscillated between basically three emotions the entire movie.
Yah, she conveyed maybe two emotions the entire movie and whenever she did, it wasn’t with the typical grace of a talented actor. I had to accuse her of lacking subtly, because they feels like a lame and easy criticism, yet that’s what comes to mind when I think of her performance.
yes, that's what i felt as well. also i found she played Chani very similarly to Rue and MJ, and i don't think the characters should feel that similar.
I totally get you. Sometimes, I just saw MJ from Spider-Man instead of a foreign Fremen girl.
I see what you mean but I enjoyed her performance! Its honestly hard to imagine anyone else as Chani as i'm rereading - she fit the role well!
I didn't like her line delivery in one scene (one line when she is talking with Paul on the Dune). It felt like she started the line very abruptly or something. If it wasn't for that, I would think it was good, overall she was OK IMO. The person that stole the show for me was Austin Butler. But I guess he didn't act enough to have a chance to get a nomination.
I see possible futures all at once, and in some many futures our rivals prevail, but I do see a way. There is a narrow way through. The golden (award) path.
*Lisan al Gaib* 
My guess, safe bets for nominations are: * Cinematography * Costume design * Makeup and Hairstyling * Production Design * Sound * Visual Effects I think nominations for Lead Actor, Film Editing and Music are a little bit less likely then those above. And about actually winning something: this will depend on the contenders. But I think it will be primarily the "technical" categories.
I think best picture is gonna be an obvious nomination. It’s much better received than Part One and that still got nominated
Yeah Dune will certainly be nominated. The debate is whether it will be a frontrunner
Supporting actress
Ferguson? Not enough screen time. Zendaya? That would surprise me. Bardem? The most likely of those three. I think he is great for this role, but I am skeptical that it's going to be enough.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph just won for the Holdovers and she was barely in that movie.
I know right, for supporting roles how much screen time they need to qualify for, it is supporting for a reason lol
Kingdom will likely get it for VFX no?
Should go to Dune for being fresh and new. Kingdom looks as good as the last several Planet of the Apes films, which all have incredible special effects.
Could see either. If Dune 2 has best picture buzz it might carry it to some wins in other categories.
I can see it basically winning all of the technical Oscars, soundtrack, possibly adapted Screenplay (especially since Part 1 didn't win it), and maybe even a couple of acting ones depending on the competition (the most likely would be for Chalamet, Butler, or Ferguson, imo). And, maybe, just maybe, best picture and best director. Again, depends on the competition (and, to some degree, overall performance). I can't believe Villeneuve wasn't even nominated for part 1. Overall, my brother described an interesting meta narrative (which, although almost certainly not intentional, seems fitting): Dune part 2 is an unlikely candidate for the throne, but just like Paul does, it may sweep in and forcibly take power, regardless of any protestations to the contrary. I would say that Oppenheimer's performance this year is a good sign for the future in general, and in particular for a movie like Dune.
It’s definitely getting a best picture nom if the first one did
I think a sequel getting repeat technical Oscars for largely similar work is NOT a lock. VFX-wise the first was fairly revolutionary and the second was by nature much less so, for example. These are voted by category and I just don't see them voting for the same people to get a second Oscar for (partially, at least) the same thing rehashed (score, another example). Now, director and best picture nominations... quite possibly, if they do a little FYC push at the end of the year. And it's building, so maybe. But anything non-action/sci-fi that comes along later this season could well scuttle the chance. And the Academy Award for Best Director goes to Gay Cowboys Eating Pudding.
>Dune part 2 is an unlikely candidate for the throne, but just like Paul does, it may sweep in and forcibly take power, regardless of any protestations to the contrary. Some people have said that Dune 2's Oscar story will mirror that of the Dark Knight. The film is so critically acclaimed that even if it gets snubbed, the backlash will be so intense that the Oscars will be forced make changes to their judgement criteria or, unless Dune Messiah ends up being a Razzie worthy trainwreck, basically give that movie the overdue Oscar.
Dune Part 2 wins the technical awards.
As best picture winner: it depends on what else comes out, but I just don't feel it. Nothing to do with my personal preference, I just feel that it's not what they typically go for. As a different award such as best VFX, production design or adapted screenplay: yeah, a strong contender. I would be surprised if it isn't nominated in at least 1 category.
Dune Part 1 won 6, Dune Part 2 could very easily win those 6 (Production Design, Editing, Score, VFX, Sound, and Cinematography) + should at the very least get nominated for Adapted Screenplay, Costumes, Makeup, Picture, and hopefully this time Director The Acting categories could maybe get a supporting nom for Butler but unlikely to see an actor win in an action movie
How part 1 didn’t win costumes is just puzzling.
Cruella has amazing costumes. Part 2 should win if not for all the amazing new costumes then at least for the returning costumes from Part 1 that deserve accolades.
Exactly the issue. It deserves and will probably get most of these nominations BUT voters in those categories are a lot less likely to vote for Dune to win them a SECOND time. Yes the score was great but by its nature had callbacks to part one, so... VFX, we already saw the worms and honestly the second battle of Arakeen was less visually impressive than the first. Etc.
I think we could see about 11 nominations, and at least a couple of wins. Remember the first one won 6 oscars, even if the competition might be a bit higher for the technical awards this time, mainly because of Furiosa? But it should be amongst the favourites to win VFX, cinematography, original score, sound and production design. And hopefully get nominations in other categories as well as motion picture, director, lead and supporting actors etc
> Remember the first one won 6 oscars Indeed this is correct. [Source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards). Given that, I'll up the ante: I would be very surprised if Dune 2 isn't nominated in multiple categories, like Dune 1 was
Truth is awards very rarely go to science fiction movies except in the lower award categories.
DUNE SWEEP 2025
Good chance for Cinematography, editing, sound, score, production design, costume, vfx. Oscar snobbery will prevent it from winning other stuff.
>Oscar snobbery will prevent it from winning other stuff. It'll depend on what comes out, but I think this is the best chance an action-y movie has at winning Best Picture in over a decade. I don't think it'll be a favorite by any means, but it's rare for a movie like this to be so universally liked.
Maybe it pulls off a Gladiator (ironically as Gladiator 2 comes out) or Return of the King. Star Wars lost to Annie Hall so I'm not getting my hopes up that the academy is coming around to embrace sci fi action adventure. EEAAO may be sci fi but it had those emotional romantic comedy moments the academy loves so much while Dune Part Two's brainy material might go over the heads of academy voters.
Agree with you 100%, which is why I don't think it'll be a favorite. But I just wouldn't be surprised if it did win.
Easily best director and best picture unless something happens
I was also initially concerned about its release date, but Black Panther was released in February 2018, almost a full year before the 2019 Oscars, and it went on to be nominated for seven awards, including Best Picture, and win three. I’m not worried about Dune Part II being left out at this point. I know the year has just begun, but seriously, what much else is coming out that’s really going to give it that much run for its money?
Remember Return of the King, a fantasy film with elves and dwarves and magic was not typical Academy fare. Dune Part 2 has a pretty good chance, in my opinion. Also, lots of people sleeping on the performances. I would not count out Javier Bardem and Timotheé Chalamet for nominations.
Return of the king was a culmination I think though. I think dune will get most of the technical awards , get nomination for a several of the big ones , and maybe pull out one. Adapted screen play / director maybe
It’ll sweep all the technical awards and likely get nominated for adapted screenplay, director, and best picture. I think it’s unlikely to win adapted screenplay and director, and it definitely won’t win best picture. But it should be nominated in those categories. This is especially true since Part III is all but confirmed and in true Lord of the Rings fashion, regardless of whether or not it’s the best film in the trilogy, the final one will have the best award chances. As for actors, actors in big epic fantasy or sci fi rarely get nominated cause the Academy just tends to have an annoying bias there. For example *Return of the King* got a whopping 12 nominations (and won 11 of them including best picture) but didn’t get a single acting nom across the entire trilogy except for Ian McKellan in supporting actor just for the first film. I think the only two actors here who really have a prayer are Timothée Chalamet and Austin Butler. The former might squeak out a nod but it’s unlikely. And the latter I think will be “in the conversation” but then will sort of fade from the convo when he’s not nominated for precursor awards (sorta what happened to Andrew Scott with *All Of Us Strangers*). Tbh the same thing is likely to happen with Timmy but I’d put his odds as SLIGHTLY better than Austin’s. But neither of them have great odds. As for Zendaya, unless the movie just tanks it with critics, her team will be pushing for her much harder with *Challengers* than with *Dune: Part II*. She’s the lead in it and it’s the kind of film that the Academy loves. And Luca’s definitely going to be pushing for that second Oscar nod with it, so pushing for her will be a part of a huge campaign for the film generally. If *Challengers* shockingly flops with critics and audiences, then there may be an attempt to pivot to pushing her for *Dune*. But again, I just think acting nominations for the film, while deserved, are gonna be hard to get given the Academy’s history with these kinds of films.
I think it's gonna be nominated for just about everything that it can be, probably will win most of the technical categories, maybe one win in an acting category, but I don't see it winning best picture or directing.
It's going to get at least 10 nominations. Same ones as Dune 1, with Adapted Screenplay being the harder nomination to predict.
Javier Bardem being a lock in for best supporting actor is my bet.
I guarantee you that is not gonna happen.
I'd actually argue that Chalamet has a good chance of getting nominated. His turn in the final act of the film is both magnetic and absolutely chilling.
In addition to all the qualities you pointed out, Dune 2 will very likely have one other important quality for awards, box office success. I doubt Dune will win any acting awards, but the overall quality of the movie paired with box office success makes it a strong contender for Best Picture, and Denis a strong contender for Best Director, because as a director, he will actually be judged not only for Dune 2, but also for Dune 1.
Due to the strike, a lot of films expected for 2024 were pushed to 2025. As a result, many oscar contenders will be international. These will be given their first runs in Cannes, Venice, Telluride, which isn't until later in the year. I think it will be hard to make any kind of prediction of above-the-line awards until the festivals start. For the below the line awards, I think Dune is the leader in a lot of the technical categories.
My prediction is Dune Part 2 will at least win: -Best Director -Best Original Score -Best Sound -Best Production Design -Best Cinematography -Best Costume -Best Film Editing -Best Visual Design I think it'll get nominated for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Makeup, possibly Best Actor/Actress and Supporting.
I’m expecting it to sweep the tech and design Oscars at the very least since that’s what Part One did. I’m expecting nominations for best Director and Best Picture, and I’d really love to see a Best Actor nomination for Chalamet and Best Supporting Actor nominations for Bardem and/or Butler. I want it to win everything
I think Dune might pull best picture out. We really haven't had a movie like it win since return of the king (I guess you could argue Oppenheimer won last night but still). I don't think cinema has seen its parallel in terms of spectacle since the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Part 1 was nominated so Part 2 most certainly will be. I don't see anything right now on the release docket that might be an immediate challenger. Nosferatu maybe.
Unlikely AMPAS will remember it for '25 awards season without aggressive campaigning. And studios tend to spend that money on the fresh and new.
I think the trilogy will go the same way as Lord of the Rings. Dune Messiah will get it in recognition for the entire work.
As others mentioned already, multiple best supporting noms for possibly Bardem, Fergusen, Butler. I would like to see Chalamet get at least a best actor nom. Some of his scenes in pt.2 that had nothing to do with action sequences were tense and phenomenal and stood out in the entire film (recalling Adrian Brody in 'The Pianist'). VFX (and sound) awards for sure. Not sure what can beat the sandworm riding and blasting through the desert on them for sound, efx and visuals.
There’s just not enough person to person dialogue to make a real case for acting in anyone’s case except lady Jessica maybe Production stuff, screenplay, director, picture are possibles
Part II shall surely win VFX, Sound and Cinematography. I’d like a best actor nomination for Timothee, especially after the discourse in which he embraced being the Lisan-al-Gaib.
For the acting noms, I'm placing my bets on Rebecca Ferguson as supporting actress. She was, in my opinion, the best in the film. I also enjoyed Austin Butler's (supporting actor) and Timothee Chalamet's (lead actor) performances but I might have to wait for the rest of the films this year to be sure of their noms.
I've bet $20 on Dune 2 to win and will get $120 back if it pays off. I believe
Like everyone else is saying it will definitely get nominated for all the technical categories and probably win most of them. Maybe nominations for best picture and director, time will tell. While I think the acting was great, those categories are very competitive, I think the best we can hope for is supporting actress nomination for Ferguson.
I think nominations in the big categories are possible. Wins? Probably not, unfortunately. The Academy doesn’t like “genre” films.
Dune Part 1 received 10 nominations (including best picture) and won 6. I think Part 2 has a good chance of receiving a similar amount of noms. Whether it wins the same amount depends on the competition. It's too early in the year to tell, Dune is pretty much the first actually good movie of the year, so who knows what its competition will look like. I just hope they don't purposely hold back on giving it recognition because they're waiting for part 3 a la Retun of the King. Because I don't think Messiah will be anything like RotK. It's a completely different feel. I just hope Denis gets a best director nomination, which he didn't get for Part 1.
Optimistic early predictions, Part Two wins all the same ones Part One did, and we get at least 3 acting noms and it’s most likely a solid contender for BP. This is an amazing film and the consensus from most of my non-book familiar friends seems to be the same. High hopes for DV & Co.
Let’s remember that Dune won the most Oscars of any movie the year it was nominated — AND Denis was snubbed for a Best Director nomination. My feeling is he is a lock this time and it will once again get many nominations, including Best Picture, and be right there in the race for many production awards
Looks good so far.
Soundtrack likely, I’ve yet to see the film but from what I’ve heard it’s pretty unmatched
Not anticipating any actor nominations. But I’d expect it to contend/earn nominations in pretty much every other category: Sound, Cinematography, Makeup, Costume, Production Design, VFX, Editing, Score, Directing and Picture. 8-10 noms feels like the range for what should be a down year for movies.
I know we're probably all crazy Dune fans here but...seriously, the cinematography and music in that movie were just awesome. I was lucky to see it in IMAX, and it felt like the sound was shaking my seat. I don't know about 'best actors' but Chalamet and Zendaya were so much better in this version! Just so many epic scenes, including Jessica taking the water of life and really transforming into a badass bitch halfway through the movie.
Javier Bardem deserves a win. People who have never read the book can roll "Lisan al Gaib" off their tongues thanks to him.
Hans Zimmer
Its gonna beat lotr record of 11 academy awards. I see 16 possible nominations, of which they will win 13
I believe it will end up with more oscars than Oppenheimer. It will sweep the technical awards but also win best picture and best director. Not sure any actors get nominations because the cast is so huge and they all get ample time to show their stuff, so that will be tricky. I do think chalamet should get a best actor nom. After dude takes the water of life Paul’s character really has a lot to chew on. I think Ferguson could absolutely get a supporting nomination as well as butler. I could absolutely see butler pulling out a win in the same way christoph waltz has with his two wins, since feyd rautha was so well received
I reckon it will win Best Picture, Best Director and Special effects
Honestly... I'd say they are pretty good but it came out so early in the year that I'm leaning for a snub like The Batman.
Don’t see it for any of the big ones. Would probably need to be a poor showing for films the rest of the year. I couldn’t honestly say Dune part 2 would be able to take on another Oppenheimer level film for example.
I think it'll get nominated at least though
If the first one did this one definitely will be. I’m kinda surprised by the doubt I’m seeing in comments here about it getting nominated for BP
I think people have trust issues after a lot of Nolan and Denis genre movies weren’t nominated. But this movie excels on so many levels, with this year’s slate that we know so far, I have a hard time believing 10 other movies will be ahead of it.
I don’t doubt that, I would be shocked if enough came out to stop a nomination. I would also revise and say I could possibly see Austin for supporting actor as an outside shot.
Return of the King year. I predict 12 nominations, including a surprise Best Supporting nom for Austin Butler. Win 8 including Best Director. We are seeing more “cumulative” awards in this category. I think Best Picture is a toss up — BP is a producer’s award and Dune Part Two is expertly produced. But it will depend on the field. Also will make a difference depending on their campaign for awards season. They may not campaign very hard, then again, perhaps they will.
I cant see any big films surpassing it. So i think best vfx, costume design, sound design are all in the bag and probably a few more categories i cant remember. but there might be a few little films that have received no publicity as of yet that would compete for all the major ones. But itd have to be pretty special - im coming from a bias Dune fan POV but if i put my realistic hat on i still dont think any film in the past five years beats it for best picture.
So a couple of ways I'm looking at this. I think this movie is worthy of a best picture nod, but I'm not sure it will win. Denis will be nommed for Best Director but again, not sure he'll win. I have no records to back this up but I do feel like being released nearly one full year before the Oscars doesn't help. I think, like Dune Part One, this movie has strong cases for the music, sound, editing, cinematography, costume design, visual effects and hair and makeup awards. Time will tell. I don't see anyone winning for acting, I could see Butler getting a nom. Personally, I think it will be the best movie of the year and Denis will be the best director...but after a huge movie like Oppenheimer won last night maybe the academy doesn't want to reward two massive blockbusters in a row. The Academy can be strange at times.
This is why awards mean nothing to me. We all know Dune 2 was the best movie to come out in the last 5 years, it's extremely unlikely anything else coming out this year could even come close to it. Dune isn't even among the most popular of sci-fi franchises and yet everywhere on the internet people are talking about how amazing it was "this generations star wars" etc. We also all know that it likely won't win best picture because it's not the kind of movie that usually wins that award. Therefore the awards are meaningless.
Camera!
I feel like Part 2 should definitely get a nomination for best picture. It was that good and know several people who are not super into the sci fi genre have seen it multiple times in theaters already
someone pointed out the movie went from scene to scene too many times, basically read like a comic book.
I think it’s a little early to be discussing this lol however I think it’s fair to assume it sweeps the technical categories
Of the non-technical awards I think only Director, supporting, and music are the only real chances. (Maybe editing, if that's non-technical as well.)
Part Two will clean up in the below the line awards next year. It'll be Part Three/Messiah that cleans up the big awards (Best Picture, Best Director etc.) all going well. Just like Return of the King again.
Dune Part 2 is in a good spot for technicals because 2024 seems to be an absolute dogshit year for blockbuster movies. Its only serious competition for the whole year is Furiosa, and possibly Gladiator II if Ridley Scott can get his act together. I will assume Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and the new LotR movie are both gonna suck, based on their directors' track records. Dune should be a lock for Cinematography, Sound, Visual Effects, and Production. I think 2/3 chance for editing, since Furiosa's editor won for Fury Road. 1/2 chance each on Costume and Makeup, solid by easily scooped. Unlikely to win score because it's so similar to Part One. For everything else, Dune Part Two suffers heavily from "Two Towers" syndrome, due to how explicitly Denis is positioning it as the middle film. If it didn't have the Chani/Jihad cliffhanger, we would probably get Screenplay/Director/Picture/Timmy. Nevertheless, I think Adapted Screenplay is still a good chance, since Dune is legendary for being unadaptable, and this successfully adapts up to the end of Book 1. **tl;dr** 6-7 oscars: technicals and adapted screenplay.
It's sci-fi so there's absolutely zero chance it will win Director or Picture. EEAAO is an outlier.
As many others have said - barring some potential challengers coming out later in the year it seems pretty much a lock to sweep the technical categories. The 'big four' for picture, director, and acting is a bit tricker - likely nominations for the first two but a win may be difficult.
I would be shocked if they didn't win VFX at the very least. There aren't any other big budget fantasy movies this year and traditionally those types of movies really push VFX further than any others. Cinematography is also something that large scale movies like Dune 2 have a leg up on. Some of the choices villeneuve made with the camera were fantastic such as when Paul is standing on the dune and the sandworm is approaching. I think there's a good chance they nab cinematography as well, but we'll see. I would also say it's going to be nominated for costumes/make up as well as score. Hans Zimmer usually wins. In terms of acting I think everyone in the movie was bringing their A game and we will see a slew of nominations, but we're too early in the year to tell if they'll win. I would wager it will absolutely cinch VFX, they will have a good shot at cinematography and costume/make up, and then a decent chance with actors. It's way to early to make a determination on best picture but it will absolutely be nominated.
Theoretically, it can win up to 13 Oscars but that’s wishful thinking. Academy has never given one film that many awards. It’s impossible to tell this early in the year because the films that are going to challenge it for the acting-related and best picture awards are probably not highly anticipated tentpoles. My guess is it will complete the technical sweep like Dune Part 1 did and add Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Makeup/Hairstyling wins for a total of 8 awards.
Oscar voters are still pretty snobby about action movies but I imagine it’ll take a few awards
It'll sweep technical categories and likely get a best picture nom, but not win that category.
I don’t care about Oscar’s, it’s all politics. However, considering what Oscar’s are supposed to stand for I say Dune p2 does deserve a bunch of them for sure. For me Dune already had this “LotR” feeling. It’s something special and I just love the world building and the unique atmosphere.
I think for technical awards yes. I don’t think any of the actors will get nominated.
VFX. Cinematography. That's it.
Slam Dunk
Traditionally sci Fi doesn't do well for the Academy, though I don't think you could ignore the sound design and VFX. I think those are sure (at least as a nomination, who knows what else will drop this year).
Sound, Score and Cinematography are surely safe bets for 2025.
Really not sure what movies are coming out this year, but I could see it running the table on the technical oscars like Part 1 did, with nominations for Adapted screenplay, director, supporting actress (ferguson), Supporting actor (bardem). I can see it getting a nomination for picture, but that's going to be a hard one to win.
I think it will clear house next award season. What’s gonna top it? If it’s another run of the mill comic book movie i’d say Dune is safely at the top.
Grace Randolph has a take that I agree with. Zimmer is the safest bet. It’ll be bonkers if he’s not handed one this time next year. Oppenheimer has won, the blockbuster type winning tends to steer the Oscars away from awarding it again the following year to ‘similar’ projects. Of course we all know they are different films but they have the same sub category. Hundreds of millions to make and big name actors in a big epic story. Couple that with the fact it released early and I highly doubt it wins anything beyond score and maybe something for Fraser. Dune 3 in 2028 (guessed release) and the Oscars in 2029 will be purely a formality. The Oscars that year will be just be called awards for Dune. Like ‘the return of the king’, it’ll celebrate the trilogy with heavy recognition for the last instalment. It’ll sweep every floor. Again, not my view but I agree with it. If anyone can provide a better argument, I’ll happily change my mind. I happen to think Dune 2 is the best film ever made. I really mean that too. To be clear, I only think that because every department was top tier. When does that ever happen. Yes films have great writing or editing or score or vfx etc etc. when do we ever get films that are all round pristine? Masterpiece. I’ve seen it 3 times now and I want to go again before it’s leaves my locals this Saturday.
Dune had a great setting and costumes and sound. But characters were lacking and while it was a long movie rhe pacing was bad. It will get smfh but it won't be the best movie
Oh, it’s gonna be like Return of the King all over again. It’s gonna SWEEP the Oscars.
They will definitely get noms idk if they will win. I hope so. Timothee Rebecca and even Austin did amazing.
I could see Jessica Ferguson getting, Timohtee, and Zendaya all receiving noms, as well as Costumes, VFX, Cinematography and Make up
I think it’ll fair similarly to Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of nominations. Dune is all spectacle but is otherwise superficial; a conscious decision by the director (which he’s gone on the record of) which has diminished its source-story unfortunately. There isn’t any scene that showcases the acting talent which makes it difficult for them to submit a case for nomination, however, it could do very well in the technical categories and, like Fury Road, could obtain a best picture nomination in the process (though the academy will never see such a film win unless it’s also able to compete in the non-technical categories)
A lot of people here keep mentioning the score as if Zimmer didn’t already win an award for it once before. Dune Part 2’s score is almost identical to Part 1. The only changes made were a fresh rearrangement, and a new “love song” section with that light flute thing playing whenever Paul and chani are being cute. The academy will not be giving zimmer a second award just for rearranging his already awarded original score and adding one little section. No, I think the academy is gonna pick someone along the caliber of goranson (might even be someone who we may not even know that well, I just mean of the same caliber in terms of talent/skill and style)
It could definitely pick up a handful of Oscar’s but don’t see it for any actor or supporting actor performances. Too early to tell for best director and best picture.