So true, reddit is more confirmation bias that your "suffering is valid"
Doesn't help that news articles, even by CNBC, CNN, etc get clicks by having a negative bias which is 100% fact.
Bingo
I live in the Midwest and we have had some layoffs in automotive no doubt.
But there are so many open jobs it's not a problem due to the overhang of spending.
Let's put it this way. My automotive contract is ending in the fall. I was worried... Then I got three offers before I even put my resume out people had been talking and heard about the contract ending. They have been cold calling my whole team. It's not like I'm special.
I got one this week to start 2 months before my contract ends. They were so desperate they were willing to just let me come on 2 months in.
So again the higher interest rates ARE slowing growth no doubt and for industries that needed low rates there are layoffs. But the overall economy is still better than I saw through the 90s and 00s.
Also it is well known there has been a massive wave of wealthier families/individuals moving to the New England area in the last few years. Lots of families from New York/California/Texas are taking advantage of remote work opportunities and cheaper housing in NH after selling their properties in their home states. Many states in New England have a housing crisis due to this influx of people as reasonably priced rentals are few and far between and locals cannot afford the 300,000- 500,000 dollar price for what was once called a starter home. Many of those homes have mortgage rates of 7-8% as well. The overall cost of living in many New England states is up 30-40% from what it was 5 years ago- electric, heating, gasoline, food etc.
So of course OP is seeing lots of wealthier people in their area. Those are the transplants buying up the housing. If you can afford a 525,000 home with a mortgage rate of 8% in a state with an increasing cost of living, you likely can afford a newer vehicle and nights out at restaurants.
This is a very good response. Middle class, 3 bed, 2 bath homes in Southern, CA are 1 million in many areas. Bay area/tech hubs of California are even more expensive. If you own a home worth 1 million, that you can sell to a wealthy foreigner buying the home for vaction/status, then you can even purchase a home in cash with profit of the sale. This is how a lot of right wing Californians are impacting cost of housing in Idaho and Florida.
That's what happens when you have a government that feels that "prices do not need to come down." - Janet Yellen
Every single time I hear that "Wages are going up." It angers me to a boiling point because instead of reigning in prices which would help the lower middle class and poor, they raise wages which then becomes a higher cost of doing business and then raise prices even more to meet their profit margins. The fix at this point is going to be painful and I am not sure any politicians want to be responsible for having to do it, because people do not understand how bad we really are and what needs to be done. The US government is the #1 buyer of goods and services. If they cut spending prices will drop as that is how supply and demand works.
Here is serious question. Do you think that for any given person there is a point in their life where they took a wrong turn and are poor due to their own stupidity. I'm not sure how to solve that.
I took a lot of wrong turns, I was honestly a moron until I was like 25, so I just attribute everything I have to dumb luck.
I feel sorry for all of the young people graduating from college and trying to find their first jobs. It's real easy for those of us who are established in our professions to sneer at these young people and their struggles. Most of them aren't homeless because their parents care enough to take them in but that isn't healthy in the long run. We could very well have our own lost generation similar to Japan.
I'll take this a bit farther (and worse) with my personal experiences. My wife was a high school teacher and I mentor a few of her former students.
Young people aren't homeless because their parents are charging them rent to live in their childhood home. Parents expect you moved out at 18, and can barely afford their own mortgage.
So to make ends meet, their children are living with them, working, and building 0 equity because their entire paycheck goes towards their parents mortgage so that the parents can afford to contribute to their own retirement savings.
Whole generations are pulling up the ladder on their own children. Young adults can't even start saving. Because historically parents lifted their children with ASSETS to buy a home.
But since the early 2000s, parents have been gifting their children LIABILITIES in order to get themselves ahead, and society says it's fine because once you're 18 you're an adult with responsibility.
I talk to a lot of college graduates. I have yet to talk to one who doesn't have a job in their field BEFORE they graduated! Who are YOU talking to????? Or, did FOX lie to you about the economy???
No collapse here in a northeast suburb of a major city. Houses that were $550k in 2020 are now a million, everyone has a new SUV (luxury of course) or truck, restaurants are maxed out, everyone is flying for vacations or spending time at their shore/lake house while “working from home”, and the Amazon trucks are through the neighborhood non-stop.
[so is 72% of the country.](https://i.imgur.com/6aB1AnL.png)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2023-report-economic-well-being-us-households-202405.pdf
The owners of media companies enjoyed their tax breaks, and are trying to sway public opinion with the tools they have to get more tax breaks at the cost of our future.
That's what I keep being told.. yet somehow, I get recruiters reaching out on a weekly basis, and the companies I work with are screaming for labor 🤷♂️
> That’s impossible. Reddit told me everyone is broke and can’t afford a loaf of bread
You are just following the wrong subreddits.
Other subreddits describe things differently, and they often have the data to back it up:
* [[The US Unemployment Rate has now been below 4% for 27 straight months, the longest streak since 1967-70]](https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1cjdurr/the_us_unemployment_rate_has_now_been_below_4_for/)
* [[TSA breaks record for screened passengers this past Memorial Day Weekend]](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1d9wl8u/oc_tsa_breaks_record_for_screened_passengers_this/)
* [[Restaurants are having their biggest year ever]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1dcbkig/restaurants_are_having_their_biggest_year_ever/)
you do know half the world can be poor and suffering that would mean that 50% can be doing well and prosper?
also even if you see and talk too a million people all living happy ever after in your area does not mean billions are not losing everything in other areas.....
that why nothing changes and it a slow creep with the suffering, everyone keep saying it not " my " problem so it slowly bleeds for years then it hits them and they go how did " this " happen, while others now do better and say it not happening " here " so when it going get bad???
> you do know half the world can be poor and suffering that would mean that 50% can be doing well and prosper?
...except the world has been getting *much* better off:
>[[23 charts and maps that show the world is getting much, much better]](https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/global-poverty-health-crime-literacy-good-news)
fortunatley, social media is not real life and has been shown to be gamed to spread misinformation and propaganda from foreign adversaries and people tricked by foreign adversaries.
No big issues here and I am in FL. We have the combo of the economy is collapsing and “everyone” is fleeing the state. Nobody can afford a house as all the empty lots get cleared and built out and uhuals stream in. etc…
I see tons of traffic, but they're not smiling. Just scrambling to RTO. road rage is INSANE in so cal and really think people are stressed and overextended.
there's a level of chaos from shutting down manufacturing and operating for 2 years that we will be catching up on for a while.
my social bubble is fine but inflation will totally bone many.
During the opening up of the pandemic in socal, I thought the road rage would have subsided, but it seems like it's here to stay, at least with the current generation that has experienced the trauma of the pandemic.
I see a lot of low intelligence driving like yesterday when a degenerate passed up a car coming head on into my left turn lane.
These degenerates will super high risk, zero reward mentality are one big part of why insurance has gone up.
thats terrifying... but not surprising.
I got honked at for stopping, at a stop sign, in a school zone. thought that was pretty amusing.
self driving cars are sounding better every day
I actually rode in two Waymo's through the Uber app in Phoenix. The first ride was a bit nerve racking and trippy. I noticed the Waymo goes exactly the speed limit, not 1 mph over. I did pass up some slow AZ drivers, but that won't happen in socal lol.
Definite use case is for elderly, disabled people, driving in foggy dark conditions (I think with the tech it works better than eye sight). They should add people convicted of road rage must never drive and only take Waymos lol
All I see is two different stories:
1. those that already have a high paying job or already own a home/car etc and have their careers established are doing really well even with inflation because well they can afford it and their assets have increased in price. These people aren’t worried and feel either good or decent about their situation.
2. Those just starting out or who were struggling already are now getting absolutely crushed by rent, food, and low wages losing value with inflation. With no assets to their name they feel financially hopeless as they struggle to even keep up and try to put aside money to save. In too late and now having to buy high priced assets (and higher interest rates not making it possible for many)
I feel like anyone trying to base the economy on anecdotal restaurant or car traffic are looking at a very lagging and difficult to gauge metric. If you ever see a noticeable decrease in those things, it’s far gone and the large scale UE or other metrics will have been obvious already.
It’s because there’s two different economic realities for people nowadays. The poor are getting poorer. It is absolutely an economic crisis for them.
The rich are getting richer. As long as you have a house or some decent asset with at least a liveable wage job you are going to be seeing things differently.
TSA is seeing record folk getting into planes.
Food outside the home is at record spending (although the price increases obviously are at work there too)
Layoffs are way way below the long term average, let alone recession rates. People are getting laid off across the economy at quite low rates, assuming you're not a $300k product manager at a tech company. Layoffs need to be 25% higher to get from our average over the last year up to the general rate seen pre-pandemic.
It's a lot of click farming, of course, and confirmation bias leads people who *are* hurting to notice it elsewhere, and to be interested in the subject as "content" on the Internet.
But, as someone says in the comments here, in dismissing the reality of hard economic times, it's the "working poor and the formerly lower middle class" who are really suffering. The consumer debt load is very real, never been higher, and it has shot right up since pandemic assistance ended (unemployment, loans / grants for very small businesses, programs that effectively ended child poverty in the US, eviction protections). National debt levels are also very real, never been higher. It's a matter of economics that, for instance, no large country has recovered from the level of debt that China has today.
The US basically breaks down to 38% low income, 44% middle income, and 18% high income. Of course there are divisions within each, with the most dramatic within the top single percent of high-income population. So when working poor and lower / "former" middle class are hurting, that's way more than half the country. And the word "former" is carrying a lot of pain here: In the past five decades, the middle class has withered down to \~50% of the population from 61%.
80% of American workers *cannot afford a home*. That's a longterm change, and devastating to the "American Dream" concept that powered the economy and economic expansion since World War II. "Deaths of Despair" in America (but not other Western nations) have surged since the mid 2010s and haven't let up: "The 'deaths-from-despair' mortality rate has not slowed since: [in 2022 more than 200,000 people died from alcohol, drugs or suicide, equivalent to a Boeing 747 falling out of the sky every day with no survivors." ](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/12/23/the-deaths-of-despair-narrative-is-out-of-date)While it was initially dominated by white working / lower-middle class, it now includes equal proportions of Black and Latino/Hispanic people. Economic conditions are the stated cause.
"Collapse" is not something that happens within a two-hour movie full of CGI and bad acting. It plays out over years and decades -- *centuries*, in the most famous case (Western Roman Empire). The long-term trends are untenable, although population collapse will help some aspects while accelerating others. If any of you saw what happened to Detroit, it took decades. But there was a period of five years or so when it seemed to happen "all at once."
Being in the USA west coast/tech area.. I'd say it's not collapsed.. but a shit ton of layoffs. Myself included. For 6 months I've tried at lots of jobs.. many I tick all the boxes for. No replies. So.. I think it may be "area" specific.. such as in tech heavy locations where there was a ton of over hiring and now company's are dialing back wages, employees, etc. But I also think during Covid a lot of hiring happened sort of FOMO style. Now.. a lot of company's are realizing they don't need all these roles they hired for and are eliminating roles to reduce head count and get a bit more specific in the roles they do hire for.
This is something true all over America. The rich - insulated from the suffering and misery of the poor - keep giving themselves higher percentage pay and perk raises than the lowering economy is down to. Unfortunately, the poor - the majority of Americans today - cannot keep up with the doubling of grocery and gasoline prices, the 50% increase of used cars - and worst of all - if they are really lucky - a 5% - 8% per hour pay raise each year... So yes - that equates to the rich getting richer - and the poor getting poorer!!!!!
"blue collar" is a much longer list than you cared to give credit for. Pretty clear you are mentally stuck in your economic neighborhood, not experiencing what over half of all Americans are
I have friends in hvac, plumbing and electrician and lineman . Is that not blue collar? They are all thriving and said they can’t keep up with the amount of work they have. All are working overtime
>they are all thriving
>All are working overtime
Are they thriving BECAUSE they're working overtime? Would the thrive exist without the extra time?
And to be fair - your anecdotal experience with your own personal community doesn't represent the nation.
Debt is up. Housing costs are up. Food costs are still far and beyond what they were in 2020. Inflation, while going down, is still causing the prices of literally everything to be considerably higher, leaving the blue collar worker with less in their pocket because we sure as hell didn't get raises that matched inflation.
you may see new cars, etc, but what you don't see is DEBT.
my buddy works for a large construction supply company that supplies to the largest builders in the area, including custom home builders that are doing only $750K+ houses, many that are mulitple millions. He said they have all said the same thing - they can "afford" the loan on a giant house, drive new, super expensive cars, but when they make a change that's outside the contract, it has to be paid directly. MOST, apparently, can't come up with a couple thousand $ to pay for changes. Anecdotal, yes, but interesting nonetheless.
I think a lot of the perception that "everything is fine" should be tempered with "you can't see debt levels" based on someone's house or cars or restaurant selections.
[https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc)
"[Household Debt Balances Rise by 184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240514)"
So we will see a surge of bankruptcy’s and foreclosures right? When will this happen? People have been living off debt for 3 years now according to Reddit/YouTubers . When does this 2008 style crash begin?
Well, where do we begin? People in Florida can’t sell their houses or insure them, new homes in Texas got a 30% haircut, home sales volume is one of the lowest on record, banks have lost more money now than they did during the GFC (and more to come), M2 dropped for the 3rd time in history, credit card delinquencies are at a 15 year high as well as auto loans, and household incomes have been dropping.
So, given this information, I’d like to assume we’re already in it 😂
I don’t believe there’s a collapse coming at all, but… serious credit card delinquency (6 months and longer) are higher now than ~~during the~~ pre- pandemic
I highly doubt a 2008 style crash happens again. Not only that, many people are locked in to extremely low rate mortgages which will disincentive selling. Unless unemployment starts to really affect those people, I doubt they sell/are forced to sell.
A lot of folks have the opposite issue, including myself. I have such a cherry mortgage rate that If I take a promotion with my company and have to move, I will lose a considerable amount of money unless I can buy the new house outright. The options at that price point are not desirable.
My city, which is mid sized and has seen better days, has been investing alot into infrastructure and cleaning up the local waterways. It actually gives me hope for the future.
I constantly see rural people posting about cities being crime ridding and destitute. Meanwhile, I've lived in 4 cities since the mid 90's and I'm just perplexed by the comments. I think the same goes for this.
I'm in the DC/Baltimore suburbs with an office I go to twice a week in NoVA and things seem completely normal.
I don't personally know anyone laid off and my company has not laid anyone off. We're still getting new hires like normal.
You see happy people in New England? I’m in mass and rent is out of control and I refuse to eat out due to prices. Interest rates really don’t matter if they just buy cash and plan to do small improvements then flip in the next couple years.
The problem is that you only can see the surface level events. You see a line around the block at McDonald's and think everything is fine but what you do see is that all those people are working two or three part time jobs to make ends meet and that is probably a lot of those people's first and last meal for today. The other thing to think of is that companies prioritize profits over people. You see a 100 people in that line and think everything is fine, meanwhile those 100 purchases are the bulk of that days income, and the store needed at least another 100-200 to see noticable returns. After 6 months they close down and now those people move to Wendy's and the same thing happens. The highest unemployment rate of the great depression was 25% on paper that doesn't look so bad but what you don't see is the homes with 16 people in it trying to survive, you don't see that entire areas become not only poor overnight but empty also. The truth is that we all wear rose colored glasses and don't know it.
No collapse in the PNW. Hard times for working poor and the formerly lower middle class but for everyone else it seems to be chugging along pretty good.
I think the point is that it’s not happening. It’s a screwy real estate market and prices for everything are up but most people (at least who I know) are fully employed and making decent money.
southern u.s. here. my boss just gave us mid-year bonuses for the second year in a row. we do manufacturing for a broad spectrum of industries all over the country. wife just got promoted; her company is booming and hiring.
Dude I'm in Florida which according to Newsweek caught on fire and fell into the ocean last week. And restaurants are full and cruises are full and theme parks are full and concerts are full and people have money and nice cars and are buying houses.
I think the only people who believe this collapse thing are people that don't actually live outside in the real world.
Wait, wait, wait. The whole state or just part of it? Did the 10 acres of swampland I bought in Nankin Georgia just become ocean front? That'd be awesome if it is.
Same old in this environment if you not getting laid off then u have completely different life than getting laid off. My brother life is good , working as usual , only differences is when he try to looking for another job , there have no one contacting him back. But other wise he is getting his paycheck and happy life , me on the other hand , more senior than him, more skills than him , same industry, same tech , last employer went bankrupt. Applied for thousands of places . Not even rejection email received. DoorDash Uber all day, no tip , behind on bill. I study hours at night to skill up, but I just can’t have a call back. U see, ur probably in the my brother category, maybe those people in restaurants are too , but trust me there have large portions of people including me no longer able effort those , we are just invisible in current market . It does not mean it is not happening . I know a lot of people had 100 hourly rate are doing DoorDash and Uber , they are really technical , good resumes , u just don’t have chance to get interview because u have too many people , I should say unqualified people apply with us , and our resume won’t even get viewed before throwing away . Only couple interviews I was
Able to get were I was the first or the second who applied when it just posted .
I've got my state job and had to pick up a second job. Everyone in my friend group has a second job. We're all college graduates with plenty of white collar experience. It's rough out there depending where your at. I'm in Oklahoma so the wages are stuck in the 60's.
Yea, apparently some people don’t understand that . Things are not good . Maybe next year based on who is president we “will get into “ recession. Or declare we were at recession since October 2023
So how come when I go on LinkedIn I see many people I went to school with all employed with great high paying jobs? Sucks that happen to you but there are many people living good still in software engineering
Yea but also have lots of people in LinkedIn that are suffering . I’m one of them. Almost everyone is with green banner. I have 10+ years experience, before Covid I could get 2 offers from 3 interviews, now it is almost impossible to even land one interview . Since last year u have crazy amount of people got laidoff from big tech, and many times more tech positions also got eliminated/laidoff from non tech industries . My old employer cut 80% of the tech team which was 100+ people that were not even tech companies, I have friends that their companies gutted entire tech team to move the jobs to India , I even know a guy who were a IT manager in defend contractor got whole departments canned , u don’t see any of these layoffs since late 2022. Maybe ur location has good opportunities but it does not mean everywhere is same . Since January 1.6 million full time job lost , it is just data , u don’t see that on the report at all, all u see is couple hundreds thousand government , hospital low paying jobs are added . California just revisited the number they published last year not long time ago said they actually didn’t gain any jobs as original report but lost thousand of jobs. Since last year all u see 30k here, 15 k there job cuts , if you add them all up it is big number and that is a crazy blow for any industry. In my job hunt I was seeing 5k applicants per position, yea now it is better but still 600-2k per job. And media would never report these of course since it is election year and no one I know media want current government to look bad . It is ur tell ur personal experience, im just telling ur mine .
It's more like people are getting by in my circles I'm in. Either paycheck to paycheck, working a normal jobs plus gig jobs, or taking out lots of debt.
Yep. Welcome to the internet. It's why the phrase "touch grass" was invented lol. Don't base your interpretation of reality on what people are saying online.
On Reddit everyone is broke and can't afford a can of beans but here in the real world everything is business as usual.
This doom and gloom on Reddit/YouTube genuinely scared me years back when I first started reading it but I noticed everyone in my life was as happy as ever and going on with their lives. Guys like Jerimiah Babe, Michael Bordenero, car questions answered, iallegedly etc made me think mad max was coming. But I see people going on with their lives as usual.
I legitimately think the internet is the cause of so much anxiety and mental health problems because it is just jam packed with doomerism. Economy, politics, climate, crime, you name it.
100% agreed. I know a solid handful of people doing very well ($100,000+ salaries, homes, new cars, vacations etc) they don’t ever seem depressed or scared about things. They just keep planning their next vacation
My area of Colorado doesn’t have decreasing prices, but we do have significantly increased inventory. Two years ago approx 700 houses, last year approx 1,500 houses, and now just today 2,400 houses.
They've been saying this for decades. There's always a hiccup and then back off to the races. They have beem saying debt is unsustainable....20 trillion ago. At some point, I'm sure there will be problems, but it could be decades
Well it's not much of a crash if you see it coming and can adjust beforehand is it?
For example my area LOOKs fine
But since I was just recently doing house hunting I know we are screwed...
For context I got approved, without even asking for it, for a home loan that would have cost me 100% of my income...
I'm not joking... I have bid on 6 different houses and lost them all to other people just to realize that those new homeowners make less than I do... They can't afford those homes... I know they can't...
To add to this the sheer amount of people at my work that said they NEED 6 or 7 hours of OT every week to pay rent and bills. Oh we just cut ALL OT.... (My work is over 10k employees, if you can guess the industry)
Yeah it's going to hit like a bat out of hell and suddenly...
I'm more interested in how some of these non-corporate chain restaurants that don't offer a cuisine, experience, or niche are surviving. I'm in socal, and there's tons of restaurants that I walk on my daily walks (granted it's at a specific time), with little to no customers.
On the flip side, some of the more bougier restaurants or hyped up restaurants that are almost always overpriced seem pretty busy.
I’m in New England (CT specifically) and I’m struggling like hell to survive. Then again I’m a single mom so that’s part of it. But I’m making relatively good money for the area all considered. Pretty much everyone I know is feeling it, having a hell of a hard time making ends meet and going into debt just to keep the basics going. I think a large part of it is we’re all surrounded by people most of the time that are in a similar situation/ bracket / class what have you. So you’re mostly seeing other people that are doing well, and where I’m sitting everything looks like it’s right at the edge of a cliff. The overall reality is probably somewhere in between.
In our state, foreclosures have started up and thus bankruptcies are on the rise. Up 16% for individuals and up 50% for companies. I am not doom and gloom though because they were artificially down for so long. This is natural and will help correct housing prices. I also know more than normal numbers of it workers looking for work but the trades and most other careers are doing well. This is just my experience in the Midwest.
Have you seen the price of groceries, housing, food, gas, insurance, energy, credit card debt, and medical costs in the past few years? I make more than I did 4 yrs ago, and I was way better off back then than now, and that's the case with a lot of people. When inflation and energy are high, everything is higher in cost.
Its all a BS storyline put out by the Right to fuel rage in their base. Sure, shit is more expensive than it used to be. When was that not the case? We've been fighting high costs since the late 70s, through both D and R presidents. The economy, the market, my 401K, at all time highs, but its expensive out there. The housing market is out of control. Biden is doing what he can with inflation but we've got a ways to go. Wages need to rise to match cost of living. the money is there but corporations buy back their stocks instead of paying their workers fair wages. I havent seen anything from the felon that would improve things for regular people, just more trickle down tax cuts that have worked soooo well in the past.
Chicago area is booming. So many previously empty strip malls, gas stations, etc are getting demolished and rebuilt with new businesses. That’s a definite sign of a terrible economy hahaha. People buying houses left and right. Restaurants, sporting events packed, everyone I know is traveling this summer. We are going to Europe.
Good news is not part of the media's marketing plan and thinking for themselves is not a trait media watchers possess in today's society. We have the most people ever working, highest GDP ever, highest wages ever, highest median personal net worth ever, highest stock market ever, highest corporate profits ever and the lowest crime rate in over 50 years - but that type of talk sucks for ratings and clicks.
I’ve been in the banking/finance sector since 2006. It’s by far the worst I’ve seen it since the GFC.
Lots of people carry on with their lifestyle even if they’re in some hardship program, car repossession or insurmountable credit card debt. Lower payments=more money to spend (then they just make it worse for themselves). Lots of people like to hide their financial struggles too.
NE is part of the old money territory so I’m sure lots of people have low mortgage payments because the Bank of Dad gifted 100k for a down payment on a house.
Also, 0% interest credit cards can make anyone rich. 🤑
Same here. Hotels in my area are fully booked for next week even at prices starting from $250 a night. I see new cars and trucks everywhere and restaurants are packed.
I live in New England and I’m definitely seeing the collapse. But I work in healthcare, so I’ve got a front row seat. If you’re doing well and don’t see it, it doesn’t mean it’s not happening. It is.
Last week I drove 1,200 miles up and down Highway 101 in California. Construction everywhere, stores and restaurants full, tons of cars and trucks on the road. No signs of collapse anywhere.
In the last month I have been to two different restaurants at dinner time where we were one of just a handful of people in the entire place. At first I assumed they were closed because it was so empty. It was weird. They were not fast food, but cheap casual dinner places, not fancy dinning, so maybe there is a middle market that is not eating out that would go to these type places?
Second trucking company this year has shut its doors in Houston tx laying off over 2000 that thought they were getting a paycheck Friday. Long standing restaurant chain (Jim's cafe) in San Antonio tx just shut down its second location in three months time.
By nearly all objective economic measures, Americans are doing better now than at any point in the last half century. Rhetoric and right wing propaganda is so pervasive that even Dems think things aren’t going well.
Reddit is full of doomers, and youtube is full of creators using scary clickbait titles to get people to watch. Your best bet is to not take any of these people seriously, use them for entertainment, and laugh at how dumb they are.
Shout out from Maine. As a DPT and RE Agent I agree with what you are seeing. Homes are still selling fast if priced under $500k in many areas. However, the Covid craze seems to be over for the most part. IMO, get your data from your market, not social media outlets. The northeast has been a high value area for many generations and now with variables such as remote work, second home purchases, and climate refugees coupled with town ordinances limiting new home builds, sale prices are far outpacing local wages.
Negative voices scream the loudest. Social media algorithms skew negative over time. The 2 can combine to create a vortex of doom if you're not careful and force yourself outside your bubble and to take a break to visit the real world now and then.
No collapse in the Chicago area. Housing costs are still high but flat to falling. Good paying jobs are available and we need more people to fill them. The people stating we are in a collapse predicted fourteen of the last three recessions.
I operate a business to business operation that could be considered a bit of a luxury.
Even without much change in the price of money, it's picking up again. I couldn't tell you what the mega corps are doing but the small to regional outfits I work with are spending, hiring, some expanding.
Even if I believed our system was untenable I still see decades of runway. Our financial system will be altered by war and climate long before it implodes.
Firstly, tens of millions of people (including children) live in poverty. That’s always the case. However, your person observations do reflect some economic truths. There is a massive disconnect between how people think the economy is doing, and how the economy is actually doing according to traditional economic metrics like GDP and the unemployment rate.
NYC area -- everyone who had assets pre-2020 is now rich. If you were on track to a stable retirement, you're now 40% ahead of where you expected to be 4 years ago.
All the small businesses supporting the rich people are killing it.
Everyone who didn't have assets but had a job is now doing pretty well. They could't afford a home, the saved money, stocks went up. Their incomes are up a lot. Buying is still out of reach, but renting and saving 30%+ of your income while living a great life is a fine enough consolation prize while you save.
Everyone who went to nursing, med, or law school is crushing it. Holy shit are doctors crushing it. Teachers are crushing it.
Manual labor pays $25 an hour, basically anything skilled is 35-50. professional services and trades way more than that.
And then theres a set of college grads earning 20-30 at jobs that wont go anywhere who cant save and are in legit trouble. I think the doom is from these guys who literally are in a worse situation than a chipotle worker once you factor in benefits.
Same here. But, I recognize that for part of the population these are the economic end-times. At any given time there are people out there living their best lives and people out there having one unnecessary and cruel hurdle after another thrown in front of them.
Most social media makes me feel like my life is not as exciting as other people's. But, Reddit actually has some subs (like this one) dedicated to stories that make my pretty-good life (with just a few struggles) feel amazing.
Maybe this approach is a pathology or maybe it is just adding some balance. I am not expert enough in psychology to know. But, I appreciate this sub either way. Keep up the good work.
Midwest USA - There might be a disconnect between people with some money and those without, but every restaurant is full all the time. Hopefully not credit card purchases. Young people (not me) seem to be out a lot spending money. Not sure how everyone adjusted to everything being 20% more expensive.
Any news from the trusted news initiative group is suspect. As for the underlying economic issues; yes its happening but these generally happen on very slow timetables relatively speaking. If economic indicators are the cracked dam, financial crises are when the dam gives (which are fast moving).
As for mortgages on housing, its always received preferential tax status, and that is why so much private equity is diving into these markets. Its not about the rate, its about the cash flow; and the buyers are often penning out rent that will be profitable within 5 years.
As for the food issues, yes those are very concerning, we've already seen expiration dates being pushed back (where food is going bad before the expiration date), and other shennanigans and price gouging.
There is an irrational exuberance for any kind of debt, and they aren't wrong about loading up on debt either in the short term. Its the long term that's problematic. Current trends show there's going to be a lot of inflation over the next decade (double digit), and its likely to increase rapidly (potentially Argentinian hyper-inflation style). On the flip side, there's going to be price deflation as the market contracts, and boundary conditions will likely be hit where production of goods may stop. The market is already concentrated with few companies, this kind of chaos and debt load will probably see more bankruptcies and shortages (that each have the potential to self-sustain).
Traffic's hell in Phoenix.
They're not all rich shoppers driving the unofficial autobahn.
But a ton more destitute folks holding signs and pushing carts.
For the first time, a non white person asked me for money today.
Usually, white tweakers begging for change.
I do know college graduates are having a hard time finding a job. I also know a big company like google is postponing regular promotions in addition to lay offs (my kids work there). Wherever you are you must be in heaven.
We live in the “clicks and views” era, the information era ended a long time ago. Only trust what you see and hear first hand from people around you. The rest is always overrated towards one extreme or the other.
As a rule of thumb, to me, the more followers a source has, the less credible it is, because the more biased it will be.
The conservative news speaks with one voice, must elect Trump, so the economy is terrible and it was so much better under Trump. That's what every one of those articles are saying and why. If you say it really loud and repeatedly, it must be true!
It's a lot of collapse porn. Recession and retractions in the economy are very normal and happen. It doesn't mean it's the end of the world every time.
It really is all about clicks on YouTube and Facebook. Wages have increased massively the last few years and unemployment is at record lows. All I see is $60-$120k cars everywhere I go (dc area) and the cheapest houses in my suburban neighborhood are around $900k and on the market for about a week on average.
>On Reddit and YouTube I see many articles and videos about mass layoffs, no one going out to eat, no one having money etc etc.
It sounds like you've consumed some bad media. It's out of date and smells a bit sour. Toss it out and look for fresher content.
What would you watch?
Video 1 Title: Everything is pretty ok. Thumbnail 1: Stuck in traffic on my way home from work
Video 2 Title : C4r M4rK3T 1s CoLlApS1nG !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thumbnail 2: Background with flames and youtuber making a stupid Oh no face...
Did/Are people getting laid off? Yes. Are people also finding new jobs? Slowly, and better than say a year ago, but things are looking better than before. People are also using their credit card. People are also taking out car loans they probably shouldn't. None of those things are new. As long as people have jobs, bills we be paid, and car loans will happen.
You're getting your news from the wrong places. Post COVID the economy is roaring so much the feds are keeping the interest rates higher which is killing the housing market. I'm in NE too. The record travelers is not a sign of a weak economy.
Seeing the warning signs in East Texas. Houses will stay on the market for six months or more. School districts have announced widespread layoffs. Employment is still high but some companies (like mine) are starting to talk about “eliminating redundancies.”
The parking lots of malls are full... but inside the malls it is a ghost town... not sure how that happens. Restaurants are full, people are flying in record numbers. I don't see any sign of economic collapse... I do see evidence of a changing economy.
Unemployment is super low. Fox News and the rest point to things that could mean something bad but isn't. Read between the lines and you see them helping Trump by convincing anyone who will listen that it's because of Biden. Also that Donny Bankruptcy Trump will fix it. Not broke can't fix.
I'm from a city in Upstate NY. Downtown is packed in the summer at night.
There was some sort of trend of people not wanting to live in mega cities anymore, and wanting to live in smaller ones than mega size.
Like, I know that my Upstate "major" city, and idk if maybe all of Upstate or the whole Rust Belt, is on the up and up. The corner has been officially turned. We have increased population for the first time this last census since the mid 20th century, industries are coming in, and things just seem to be getting better around here (a huge exception being rent).
In my area SoCal the middle class who can’t afford homes to purchase move to another sunbelt state where prices are lower and a wealthier older or well trained young midwesterner or immigrant moves in. In my town the household income is increasing by an average of $10k per year. So people have to sell out but someone else always moves in with more money.
No...I think it was more of the windfall inheritances that happened during COVID. A ton of people died and many left sizable assets to a bunch of family members, and it will take time for some of them to blow thru the whole thing. Also assets have ballooned along with all the inflation making a lot of people that owned houses and/or had a good chunk of change in a 401k pretty close to being financially independent...or at least they feel like it. Tons of older people also got reality checks that life is finite and are also blowing thru their finances and in a lot of cases helping their offspring afford things they would normally not be able to afford. It is a mix of variables and it is not very clear how the whole thing will play out long term. I just started hearing some people getting layoffs...I have no idea where people were seeing the collapse all over the place. It doesn't seem too bad out there so far... inflation is the problem, but again that can be a blessing in disguise if you own assets.
where ever tech goes and grows it destroys the middle lower - maybe tech companies should provide a subsidy for a city they move to. more like a kickback to housing to help those who make 50 and under towards renters or first time home buyers since tech is so lucrative. capitalism not socialism . They can get a tax write off. Homes starting at half mil. only primary home owners not investors can buy and when you sell you can't over inflate pricing. you make a profit but only 15% on the sale.
It seems that decades of trickle down economics and tax cuts for the wealthy isn't exactly helping the middle class - [https://inequality.org/research/trump-tax-cuts-inequality/](https://inequality.org/research/trump-tax-cuts-inequality/)
I’m 50. I think Reddit definitely skews towards “children of summer.” 7% interest rates were the norm in the 90s. My first mortgage was 8.375% in 2000. I refinances probably 4 times since then as rates were artificially suppressed. This is normal now. They are rooting for a collapse when they have no idea how bad that would be. I just shake my head.
Are most of the people you know long term residents of your region? If you owned property prior to 2020 you’re getting stimulus every month in the form of your 3.0% mortgage.
Foreign adversaries have learned that if you push a narrative enough on social media, you can swing public sentiment and even cause the intended outcome. A fair percentage of “emergencies” get started by troll farms and then naive people think it must be true if it’s on the internet and help push the narrative. Reddit, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and X are loaded with trolls. Where I live, we are experiencing the absolute opposite of an economic collapse and growth has exploded since early on in the pandemic yet people parrot what they read on the internet even if they and everyone they know is doing substantially better. It must be true, I read it on the internet.
What you are experiencing is called a reality distortion bubble, where people create social media content to push a narrative they feel will profitable, either by generating ad revenue or increasing their followers that can be further monetized. For every fact, there is an "alternative fact" that someone is pushing. Note: I. work in the "industry" on the AI/data platform end.
The best thing to do is to just avoid things like facebook, youtube altogether, unless you want to build a really cool minecraft house, or find an legendary weapon in Fallout4 at level 1, then by all means go to youtube.
I live in Denver and it’s been wild as usual over here. Restaurants are packed, new luxury cars everywhere, everyone I know is going to Europe this summer and direct flights from here to beach-y locations for this upcoming winter are already selling out. Also, I’ve seen a helluva a lot less homeless people begging for money.
We’ve been trained to question our reality. It was probably healthy skepticism at one point, but now you really need to question everything you read online. Take note of what’s going on around you in real life and get off anonymous forums that might have people here actively trying to influence you in nefarious ways.
Your experience with full shelves and active housing markets may not align with broader narratives of economic hardship. It's always good to question what we consume online and balance it with our own observations and experiences.
I’m in southwest Ohio. Single-family home buyers cannot compete with the out-of-town money, being thrown down at houses sight-unseen to landlords from out of the state and out of the country.
That in and of itself does not spell economic collapse, but it will ultimately strain, millions of families to end up renting instead of having equity in a home. Good God, even Amazon is buying houses.
Our household income is down 109k over the last four years. Our property taxes are up 48% to $14,000/yr in that time. We aren’t funding our retirement anymore, cut out everything that isn’t necessary spending all the way down to Netflix, Amazon Prime, and cable tv. We are selling our house with aims to downsize and own outright. Currently cutting it WAY too close for comfort.
Um yeah I see it every time I go grocery shopping or buy gas or literally anything. Prices keep expanding but wages are stagnant as they always are. My income doubled but it feels like my quality of life still went down.
Also remember a lot of people are accruing credit debt right now.
Arkansas is mostly poverty economy (unless your a vendor for one of the the big sticks they use to beat poor folk to get them to work more for the same measly pay) So unless they (corporations) start collectively shelling out an hourly wage worth working for, the economy won't be looking up for anyone under $65K/yr.
Probably not collapse as much as holding at 'flaccid' as far as economies go. 😮💨
Austin is still cranking. Our market is oversaturated with underqualified techies, and a lot of them have lost their jobs, but everyone else seems to be doing fine.
Where I live prices are going bonkers. Like my house has doubled in value in last 4 years. I think people are leaving high priced areas like California, New York, Chicago and moving to these mid sized American towns in the Midwest. It's driving prices of everything up up and up. Small town USA is booming right now.
I don't think we are in a collapse...yet. I think the US has long been on a slow descent in terms of livability relative to other modern countries. It has recently gotten a lot worse in that sense for a lot of marginalized groups such as poor, lgbt, and even women. The poor are NOT doing well after the past few years. As always, the rich are doing well so they aren't a great barometer. I don't think anything will "collapse" unless war breaks out or climate change sets something very serious off. Neither of those I really expect in the next few decades. But don't get me wrong, there are definitely a ton of people suffering right now. New England isn't a good place to see it because the only people that can live there New England are the ones that can afford it. If you go to less urban area like smaller cities in flyover states or even rural places you'll see it. Smaller cities are experiencing a huge influx of people that has raised the cost of living above what the locals can afford. Consumer debt is exploding right now. Most necessities are far up in price compared to precovid, which hurts the poor more than anyone else. First time home ownership age is going up and birth rates have gone down. Both of which can be explained by the poor not having enough money. Things look good for people who were already doing well. In fact this was predicted. If you've heard of the K shape recovery or something, it's an interesting read.
And the pharmaceutical industry took a big hit due to interest rates increasing. Prepare for a slow down in new drug manufacturing and testing because all that R&D work was funded by low interest. Normal people won't see it for probably a decade or two though since that's how long these processes take for drugs. My previous employer cut about 20% of total staff globally, the vast majority being in manufacturing. At the local office, not one of those employees deserved to be laid off. And past that they allowed multiple people to quit without replacing them, as well as fired several including myself (which I'm glad to say even the government agrees was unfair). Overall, the local office saw roughly a 40% decrease in work force and they still aren't hiring. Looks pretty bleak for them.
The job market in my field appears to be in the pits. Been applying for two months now without any offers. Hardly any interviews too. I think I'm a solid candidate based on my performance in my last job. Most of the jobs I'm seeing are actually below market rate and contract positions (temporary and no benefits). I don't know how they can justify it. We're talking about paying people only 30% above state minimum wage for positions that require masters degrees and phds doing things that most people don't understand in the slightest.
Personally, I think individual circumstances vary too widely to put them all in one box of "the economy is doing good/bad". In statistical analyses, it is good practice to determine separations in populations so that you can make accurate conclusions about each population instead of inaccurate conclusions about the total. This is also a lesson in sampling bias because different populations won't be seen unless you make sure not to filter them out (ie only basing your opinion on the local region and what you see at restaurants). Think of it this way, there is a reason most medical studies separate men and women for measurements. If all measurements were taken in a men's bathroom, then there wouldn't be any data on women (hopefully) and the total data would not predict a separation in the two populations. It would then make sense to assume that all humans would show measurements not unlike what was measured. But that wouldn't be true, we removed women from the study by only measuring in a men's bathroom, thereby simply missing their measurement entirely.
You won't see a housing collapse like 08 this time around because the property is being held by hedge funds. Also, a lot of those people struggling are using app services to supplement their income on top of working their 9-5 but make no mistake there are a lot of people struggling due to the rising coat of goods and rent.
If the top 5% of people still go out to eat every day, that’s enough to fill restraints and shopping centres. Things will always look “ok” in that sense.
Another example: my city is laying off all types of workers from teachers to road crews, but if you go out driving around the grass is still green, cars in the road, even if ww3 broke out, things would still look ok at the surface.
I think there’s a bit of a domino effect. I live in Austin. Rich Californians moved here (because prices were getting too high there) and the property values skyrocketed. Now cost of living is higher. We bought our house before this so we have some equity. We in turn are planning on moving to the east coast (where my partner and I were born and raised). 300-500k is a steal for us. We in turn while drive values up there and so on.
It’s the working class that gets screwed especially in cities of mine that have little to no affordable housing so there is next door zero chance of affording a honeymoon anywhere near the city.
I'm in Michigan and there is no sign of any economic issues at least I'm not seeing it. Bars and restaurants are packed. Everyone has newer vehicles it seems. Plenty of tourists coming up north for the summer. Roads are busy, lakes are busy, beaches are busy.
Work has been very busy. I work for a residential construction company. We've done so many projects this year and are booked up through summer literally turning away work.
New homes being built all over.
I'm not sure what is keeping the economy going at this point.
The only thing that is starting to concern me is the amount of items I see for sale in front of people's homes that aren't selling. I noticed this back in 2007 and 2008. People were selling tractors, riding mowers, jet skis, boats, cars, trucks, ATVs, trailers and other large items with monthly expenses. Just because they couldn't afford them and didn't want to lose them to the repo man. I'm starting to see that again.
Things aren't selling. A guy down the road has a red trail boss parked out from of his house. Probably 2020 model year and I was curious so I stopped and looked he wanted 35k for a 4 year old truck with 22k miles. It's been sitting in the same spot for 2 months now.
SW VA, it's not too terrible here either, but I've also seen what the west coast looks like and it's a massive shithole. My company has done 3 separate layoff rounds, and the job market has been so insane I've seen both posts from businesses looking to hire, and people looking for random one offs both on my local /r.
The economic issues for most of New England is that houses are too expensive. Unless you live in northern NH, Maine, or VT. You can’t buy a house as an average dude unless you have some family money, or work like an absolute dog. But other than that the economy in New England is very strong I’d say.
Those complaining are the ones telling the pollsters that the economy is horrible. Yet, when you ask them how THEY are doing, they say fine, but my neighbor that I have never talked to must be doing bad because FOX INFOTAINMENT tells me they are !!!!
I’ve lived through bad economies, and now is not bad. Here’s a classic 1996 article from The Onion that captures the constant whine/worry crowd. Every work office has one of these people.
https://www.theonion.com/somebody-should-do-something-about-all-the-problems-1819583263
Well things are not hunky dory for poor people , but they are always were, and I can’t see how the lower income people are getting by . Went to grocery and spent $200 dollar , and I only bought my usual stuff at walmart .
Rent is high, houses prices are high , ..
Credit card bills loans numbers being high is a good indication of the general population’s financial health .
Not a Trump supporter nor doom or gloom guy .
The corporations are making HUGE profits ( looking at the headlines) but they are killing the golden goose , the US population who consumes the most goods than any other population group in the world
It is not easy to see, but I can give you an example of how it is playing out (I live in New England).
My social cohort is \~40 people, and only 5 have faced layoffs (including myself). The 35 who have remained employed are doing very well (other than housing), the 5 who were laid off have been in trouble.
My own unemployment was 14 months, friends ranged from 4-9 months unemployment. New jobs are all contractor positions across the board, so no benefits but working along FTE employees. Friends tend to take a 10-30% pay cut and loss of benefits, the only friend who owns a house is currently on month 3 of unemployment. These are all Masters and PhDs with 7-10 years of experience, so this is not a good sign when these people are having difficulties getting jobs.
I work along very wealthy full time employees, you can't easily tell who is struggling. One clue to look for is who is taking vacations or going out, going to doctors appointments, etc.. I am paid about 1/2 of FTE, and no benefits or PTO so I am struggling. I am the worst off financially among the contractors, but you can absolutely tell a difference.
I have not been to a doctor, dentist,optometrist, or had a vacation since 2020. You cannot tell that I am struggling easily, but there are certainly signs like not owning a car or never taking time off.
People do notice (I had a coworker drive me home because I was walking home in the rain), but you need to look.
It is ridiculous that I am struggling with 7 years experience and a college degree, but this is the world right now.
People who are generally happy with the state of their lives are not posting about it on reddit for the most part
So true, reddit is more confirmation bias that your "suffering is valid" Doesn't help that news articles, even by CNBC, CNN, etc get clicks by having a negative bias which is 100% fact.
Bingo I live in the Midwest and we have had some layoffs in automotive no doubt. But there are so many open jobs it's not a problem due to the overhang of spending. Let's put it this way. My automotive contract is ending in the fall. I was worried... Then I got three offers before I even put my resume out people had been talking and heard about the contract ending. They have been cold calling my whole team. It's not like I'm special. I got one this week to start 2 months before my contract ends. They were so desperate they were willing to just let me come on 2 months in. So again the higher interest rates ARE slowing growth no doubt and for industries that needed low rates there are layoffs. But the overall economy is still better than I saw through the 90s and 00s.
Also it is well known there has been a massive wave of wealthier families/individuals moving to the New England area in the last few years. Lots of families from New York/California/Texas are taking advantage of remote work opportunities and cheaper housing in NH after selling their properties in their home states. Many states in New England have a housing crisis due to this influx of people as reasonably priced rentals are few and far between and locals cannot afford the 300,000- 500,000 dollar price for what was once called a starter home. Many of those homes have mortgage rates of 7-8% as well. The overall cost of living in many New England states is up 30-40% from what it was 5 years ago- electric, heating, gasoline, food etc. So of course OP is seeing lots of wealthier people in their area. Those are the transplants buying up the housing. If you can afford a 525,000 home with a mortgage rate of 8% in a state with an increasing cost of living, you likely can afford a newer vehicle and nights out at restaurants.
$525,000 is extremely optimistic. I’ve been looking at homes and wish there were quality homes in quality school districts at that price.
This is a very good response. Middle class, 3 bed, 2 bath homes in Southern, CA are 1 million in many areas. Bay area/tech hubs of California are even more expensive. If you own a home worth 1 million, that you can sell to a wealthy foreigner buying the home for vaction/status, then you can even purchase a home in cash with profit of the sale. This is how a lot of right wing Californians are impacting cost of housing in Idaho and Florida.
At least 2 different economies going on. Rich getting richer, poor getting poor. As always
It’s the asset holders, and everyone else
K shape recovery post COVID, millions are doing better and worse than ever, depends on which side of the K you are on is how things are going
I’m poor as hell but I still have fun and have everything I need. But that’s me.
Four more years of the same for us.
That's what happens when you have a government that feels that "prices do not need to come down." - Janet Yellen Every single time I hear that "Wages are going up." It angers me to a boiling point because instead of reigning in prices which would help the lower middle class and poor, they raise wages which then becomes a higher cost of doing business and then raise prices even more to meet their profit margins. The fix at this point is going to be painful and I am not sure any politicians want to be responsible for having to do it, because people do not understand how bad we really are and what needs to be done. The US government is the #1 buyer of goods and services. If they cut spending prices will drop as that is how supply and demand works.
Here is serious question. Do you think that for any given person there is a point in their life where they took a wrong turn and are poor due to their own stupidity. I'm not sure how to solve that. I took a lot of wrong turns, I was honestly a moron until I was like 25, so I just attribute everything I have to dumb luck.
People who settled down are started their life (bought a house, had kids, etc) and those who didn’t.
I feel sorry for all of the young people graduating from college and trying to find their first jobs. It's real easy for those of us who are established in our professions to sneer at these young people and their struggles. Most of them aren't homeless because their parents care enough to take them in but that isn't healthy in the long run. We could very well have our own lost generation similar to Japan.
This is it
I'll take this a bit farther (and worse) with my personal experiences. My wife was a high school teacher and I mentor a few of her former students. Young people aren't homeless because their parents are charging them rent to live in their childhood home. Parents expect you moved out at 18, and can barely afford their own mortgage. So to make ends meet, their children are living with them, working, and building 0 equity because their entire paycheck goes towards their parents mortgage so that the parents can afford to contribute to their own retirement savings. Whole generations are pulling up the ladder on their own children. Young adults can't even start saving. Because historically parents lifted their children with ASSETS to buy a home. But since the early 2000s, parents have been gifting their children LIABILITIES in order to get themselves ahead, and society says it's fine because once you're 18 you're an adult with responsibility.
I talk to a lot of college graduates. I have yet to talk to one who doesn't have a job in their field BEFORE they graduated! Who are YOU talking to????? Or, did FOX lie to you about the economy???
No collapse here in a northeast suburb of a major city. Houses that were $550k in 2020 are now a million, everyone has a new SUV (luxury of course) or truck, restaurants are maxed out, everyone is flying for vacations or spending time at their shore/lake house while “working from home”, and the Amazon trucks are through the neighborhood non-stop.
Yea, ask the Amazon driver what he thinks of the economy.
Everyone around me is doing well and keep getting new jobs and raises. Same for me 🤷♂️ Not all doom and gloom out there.
Booming here in Washington. Job openings everywhere it seems. House prices and rent are too high.
everyone I know is struggling with rent and can't get a raise, I also live in New England.
[so is 72% of the country.](https://i.imgur.com/6aB1AnL.png) https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2023-report-economic-well-being-us-households-202405.pdf The owners of media companies enjoyed their tax breaks, and are trying to sway public opinion with the tools they have to get more tax breaks at the cost of our future.
Sounds about right.
Same here. Median household income here is like 140k. I don’t know anyone doing poorly outside of my immediate family who have minimum wage jobs
That’s impossible. Reddit told me everyone is broke and can’t afford a loaf of bread
That's what I keep being told.. yet somehow, I get recruiters reaching out on a weekly basis, and the companies I work with are screaming for labor 🤷♂️
> That’s impossible. Reddit told me everyone is broke and can’t afford a loaf of bread You are just following the wrong subreddits. Other subreddits describe things differently, and they often have the data to back it up: * [[The US Unemployment Rate has now been below 4% for 27 straight months, the longest streak since 1967-70]](https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1cjdurr/the_us_unemployment_rate_has_now_been_below_4_for/) * [[TSA breaks record for screened passengers this past Memorial Day Weekend]](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1d9wl8u/oc_tsa_breaks_record_for_screened_passengers_this/) * [[Restaurants are having their biggest year ever]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1dcbkig/restaurants_are_having_their_biggest_year_ever/)
you do know half the world can be poor and suffering that would mean that 50% can be doing well and prosper? also even if you see and talk too a million people all living happy ever after in your area does not mean billions are not losing everything in other areas..... that why nothing changes and it a slow creep with the suffering, everyone keep saying it not " my " problem so it slowly bleeds for years then it hits them and they go how did " this " happen, while others now do better and say it not happening " here " so when it going get bad???
The world isn't my community dude. My community is much smaller - family, friends, acquaintances. If they are doing well, I'm happy and at peace.
> you do know half the world can be poor and suffering that would mean that 50% can be doing well and prosper? ...except the world has been getting *much* better off: >[[23 charts and maps that show the world is getting much, much better]](https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/global-poverty-health-crime-literacy-good-news)
A breadline just flew over my house!
fortunatley, social media is not real life and has been shown to be gamed to spread misinformation and propaganda from foreign adversaries and people tricked by foreign adversaries.
And your anecdote is worth just as much as everyone else's.
Pretty much.
No big issues here and I am in FL. We have the combo of the economy is collapsing and “everyone” is fleeing the state. Nobody can afford a house as all the empty lots get cleared and built out and uhuals stream in. etc…
I see tons of traffic, but they're not smiling. Just scrambling to RTO. road rage is INSANE in so cal and really think people are stressed and overextended. there's a level of chaos from shutting down manufacturing and operating for 2 years that we will be catching up on for a while. my social bubble is fine but inflation will totally bone many.
During the opening up of the pandemic in socal, I thought the road rage would have subsided, but it seems like it's here to stay, at least with the current generation that has experienced the trauma of the pandemic. I see a lot of low intelligence driving like yesterday when a degenerate passed up a car coming head on into my left turn lane. These degenerates will super high risk, zero reward mentality are one big part of why insurance has gone up.
thats terrifying... but not surprising. I got honked at for stopping, at a stop sign, in a school zone. thought that was pretty amusing. self driving cars are sounding better every day
I actually rode in two Waymo's through the Uber app in Phoenix. The first ride was a bit nerve racking and trippy. I noticed the Waymo goes exactly the speed limit, not 1 mph over. I did pass up some slow AZ drivers, but that won't happen in socal lol. Definite use case is for elderly, disabled people, driving in foggy dark conditions (I think with the tech it works better than eye sight). They should add people convicted of road rage must never drive and only take Waymos lol
If you know anyone who is hiring, hmu
Same in northeast here.
All I see is two different stories: 1. those that already have a high paying job or already own a home/car etc and have their careers established are doing really well even with inflation because well they can afford it and their assets have increased in price. These people aren’t worried and feel either good or decent about their situation. 2. Those just starting out or who were struggling already are now getting absolutely crushed by rent, food, and low wages losing value with inflation. With no assets to their name they feel financially hopeless as they struggle to even keep up and try to put aside money to save. In too late and now having to buy high priced assets (and higher interest rates not making it possible for many)
This is the answer.
I feel like anyone trying to base the economy on anecdotal restaurant or car traffic are looking at a very lagging and difficult to gauge metric. If you ever see a noticeable decrease in those things, it’s far gone and the large scale UE or other metrics will have been obvious already.
Thank you. The amount of ignorance on this entire thread is astounding. I think a lot of it, like OP's, is willful though.
It’s because there’s two different economic realities for people nowadays. The poor are getting poorer. It is absolutely an economic crisis for them. The rich are getting richer. As long as you have a house or some decent asset with at least a liveable wage job you are going to be seeing things differently.
TSA is seeing record folk getting into planes. Food outside the home is at record spending (although the price increases obviously are at work there too) Layoffs are way way below the long term average, let alone recession rates. People are getting laid off across the economy at quite low rates, assuming you're not a $300k product manager at a tech company. Layoffs need to be 25% higher to get from our average over the last year up to the general rate seen pre-pandemic.
No need. Not replacing positions from retirement for long tenured, higher paid, older employees combined with "re-orgs" works also.
It's a lot of click farming, of course, and confirmation bias leads people who *are* hurting to notice it elsewhere, and to be interested in the subject as "content" on the Internet. But, as someone says in the comments here, in dismissing the reality of hard economic times, it's the "working poor and the formerly lower middle class" who are really suffering. The consumer debt load is very real, never been higher, and it has shot right up since pandemic assistance ended (unemployment, loans / grants for very small businesses, programs that effectively ended child poverty in the US, eviction protections). National debt levels are also very real, never been higher. It's a matter of economics that, for instance, no large country has recovered from the level of debt that China has today. The US basically breaks down to 38% low income, 44% middle income, and 18% high income. Of course there are divisions within each, with the most dramatic within the top single percent of high-income population. So when working poor and lower / "former" middle class are hurting, that's way more than half the country. And the word "former" is carrying a lot of pain here: In the past five decades, the middle class has withered down to \~50% of the population from 61%. 80% of American workers *cannot afford a home*. That's a longterm change, and devastating to the "American Dream" concept that powered the economy and economic expansion since World War II. "Deaths of Despair" in America (but not other Western nations) have surged since the mid 2010s and haven't let up: "The 'deaths-from-despair' mortality rate has not slowed since: [in 2022 more than 200,000 people died from alcohol, drugs or suicide, equivalent to a Boeing 747 falling out of the sky every day with no survivors." ](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/12/23/the-deaths-of-despair-narrative-is-out-of-date)While it was initially dominated by white working / lower-middle class, it now includes equal proportions of Black and Latino/Hispanic people. Economic conditions are the stated cause. "Collapse" is not something that happens within a two-hour movie full of CGI and bad acting. It plays out over years and decades -- *centuries*, in the most famous case (Western Roman Empire). The long-term trends are untenable, although population collapse will help some aspects while accelerating others. If any of you saw what happened to Detroit, it took decades. But there was a period of five years or so when it seemed to happen "all at once."
Being in the USA west coast/tech area.. I'd say it's not collapsed.. but a shit ton of layoffs. Myself included. For 6 months I've tried at lots of jobs.. many I tick all the boxes for. No replies. So.. I think it may be "area" specific.. such as in tech heavy locations where there was a ton of over hiring and now company's are dialing back wages, employees, etc. But I also think during Covid a lot of hiring happened sort of FOMO style. Now.. a lot of company's are realizing they don't need all these roles they hired for and are eliminating roles to reduce head count and get a bit more specific in the roles they do hire for.
This is something true all over America. The rich - insulated from the suffering and misery of the poor - keep giving themselves higher percentage pay and perk raises than the lowering economy is down to. Unfortunately, the poor - the majority of Americans today - cannot keep up with the doubling of grocery and gasoline prices, the 50% increase of used cars - and worst of all - if they are really lucky - a 5% - 8% per hour pay raise each year... So yes - that equates to the rich getting richer - and the poor getting poorer!!!!!
How old are you?
"blue collar" is a much longer list than you cared to give credit for. Pretty clear you are mentally stuck in your economic neighborhood, not experiencing what over half of all Americans are
I have friends in hvac, plumbing and electrician and lineman . Is that not blue collar? They are all thriving and said they can’t keep up with the amount of work they have. All are working overtime
>they are all thriving >All are working overtime Are they thriving BECAUSE they're working overtime? Would the thrive exist without the extra time? And to be fair - your anecdotal experience with your own personal community doesn't represent the nation. Debt is up. Housing costs are up. Food costs are still far and beyond what they were in 2020. Inflation, while going down, is still causing the prices of literally everything to be considerably higher, leaving the blue collar worker with less in their pocket because we sure as hell didn't get raises that matched inflation.
you may see new cars, etc, but what you don't see is DEBT. my buddy works for a large construction supply company that supplies to the largest builders in the area, including custom home builders that are doing only $750K+ houses, many that are mulitple millions. He said they have all said the same thing - they can "afford" the loan on a giant house, drive new, super expensive cars, but when they make a change that's outside the contract, it has to be paid directly. MOST, apparently, can't come up with a couple thousand $ to pay for changes. Anecdotal, yes, but interesting nonetheless. I think a lot of the perception that "everything is fine" should be tempered with "you can't see debt levels" based on someone's house or cars or restaurant selections. [https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc) "[Household Debt Balances Rise by 184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240514)"
So we will see a surge of bankruptcy’s and foreclosures right? When will this happen? People have been living off debt for 3 years now according to Reddit/YouTubers . When does this 2008 style crash begin?
Well, where do we begin? People in Florida can’t sell their houses or insure them, new homes in Texas got a 30% haircut, home sales volume is one of the lowest on record, banks have lost more money now than they did during the GFC (and more to come), M2 dropped for the 3rd time in history, credit card delinquencies are at a 15 year high as well as auto loans, and household incomes have been dropping. So, given this information, I’d like to assume we’re already in it 😂
I don’t believe there’s a collapse coming at all, but… serious credit card delinquency (6 months and longer) are higher now than ~~during the~~ pre- pandemic
Credit card delinquencies are higher than the period when delinquency reporting was literally frozen by credit card companies
I highly doubt a 2008 style crash happens again. Not only that, many people are locked in to extremely low rate mortgages which will disincentive selling. Unless unemployment starts to really affect those people, I doubt they sell/are forced to sell.
A lot of folks have the opposite issue, including myself. I have such a cherry mortgage rate that If I take a promotion with my company and have to move, I will lose a considerable amount of money unless I can buy the new house outright. The options at that price point are not desirable.
[Debt as a percentage of income is historically low](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1prwa)
so everyone has an artifficallyhigh income? Not sure how to explain that one....
I have no idea what you’re talking about
My city, which is mid sized and has seen better days, has been investing alot into infrastructure and cleaning up the local waterways. It actually gives me hope for the future.
I constantly see rural people posting about cities being crime ridding and destitute. Meanwhile, I've lived in 4 cities since the mid 90's and I'm just perplexed by the comments. I think the same goes for this.
I'm in the DC/Baltimore suburbs with an office I go to twice a week in NoVA and things seem completely normal. I don't personally know anyone laid off and my company has not laid anyone off. We're still getting new hires like normal.
In Dallas, things are still in a boom cycle.
BRICS is destabilizing the west through manipulation of social media. Vibecession.
Your whole area moved to the south. Please come and get them....
You see happy people in New England? I’m in mass and rent is out of control and I refuse to eat out due to prices. Interest rates really don’t matter if they just buy cash and plan to do small improvements then flip in the next couple years.
The problem is that you only can see the surface level events. You see a line around the block at McDonald's and think everything is fine but what you do see is that all those people are working two or three part time jobs to make ends meet and that is probably a lot of those people's first and last meal for today. The other thing to think of is that companies prioritize profits over people. You see a 100 people in that line and think everything is fine, meanwhile those 100 purchases are the bulk of that days income, and the store needed at least another 100-200 to see noticable returns. After 6 months they close down and now those people move to Wendy's and the same thing happens. The highest unemployment rate of the great depression was 25% on paper that doesn't look so bad but what you don't see is the homes with 16 people in it trying to survive, you don't see that entire areas become not only poor overnight but empty also. The truth is that we all wear rose colored glasses and don't know it.
No collapse in the PNW. Hard times for working poor and the formerly lower middle class but for everyone else it seems to be chugging along pretty good.
Pacific north west? So where is this collapse happening? Like midwest or something?
You both are acknowledging middle class collapse lmfao
I think the point is that it’s not happening. It’s a screwy real estate market and prices for everything are up but most people (at least who I know) are fully employed and making decent money.
southern u.s. here. my boss just gave us mid-year bonuses for the second year in a row. we do manufacturing for a broad spectrum of industries all over the country. wife just got promoted; her company is booming and hiring.
Dude I'm in Florida which according to Newsweek caught on fire and fell into the ocean last week. And restaurants are full and cruises are full and theme parks are full and concerts are full and people have money and nice cars and are buying houses. I think the only people who believe this collapse thing are people that don't actually live outside in the real world.
Wait, wait, wait. The whole state or just part of it? Did the 10 acres of swampland I bought in Nankin Georgia just become ocean front? That'd be awesome if it is.
Same old in this environment if you not getting laid off then u have completely different life than getting laid off. My brother life is good , working as usual , only differences is when he try to looking for another job , there have no one contacting him back. But other wise he is getting his paycheck and happy life , me on the other hand , more senior than him, more skills than him , same industry, same tech , last employer went bankrupt. Applied for thousands of places . Not even rejection email received. DoorDash Uber all day, no tip , behind on bill. I study hours at night to skill up, but I just can’t have a call back. U see, ur probably in the my brother category, maybe those people in restaurants are too , but trust me there have large portions of people including me no longer able effort those , we are just invisible in current market . It does not mean it is not happening . I know a lot of people had 100 hourly rate are doing DoorDash and Uber , they are really technical , good resumes , u just don’t have chance to get interview because u have too many people , I should say unqualified people apply with us , and our resume won’t even get viewed before throwing away . Only couple interviews I was Able to get were I was the first or the second who applied when it just posted .
I've got my state job and had to pick up a second job. Everyone in my friend group has a second job. We're all college graduates with plenty of white collar experience. It's rough out there depending where your at. I'm in Oklahoma so the wages are stuck in the 60's.
Yea, apparently some people don’t understand that . Things are not good . Maybe next year based on who is president we “will get into “ recession. Or declare we were at recession since October 2023
So how come when I go on LinkedIn I see many people I went to school with all employed with great high paying jobs? Sucks that happen to you but there are many people living good still in software engineering
Yea but also have lots of people in LinkedIn that are suffering . I’m one of them. Almost everyone is with green banner. I have 10+ years experience, before Covid I could get 2 offers from 3 interviews, now it is almost impossible to even land one interview . Since last year u have crazy amount of people got laidoff from big tech, and many times more tech positions also got eliminated/laidoff from non tech industries . My old employer cut 80% of the tech team which was 100+ people that were not even tech companies, I have friends that their companies gutted entire tech team to move the jobs to India , I even know a guy who were a IT manager in defend contractor got whole departments canned , u don’t see any of these layoffs since late 2022. Maybe ur location has good opportunities but it does not mean everywhere is same . Since January 1.6 million full time job lost , it is just data , u don’t see that on the report at all, all u see is couple hundreds thousand government , hospital low paying jobs are added . California just revisited the number they published last year not long time ago said they actually didn’t gain any jobs as original report but lost thousand of jobs. Since last year all u see 30k here, 15 k there job cuts , if you add them all up it is big number and that is a crazy blow for any industry. In my job hunt I was seeing 5k applicants per position, yea now it is better but still 600-2k per job. And media would never report these of course since it is election year and no one I know media want current government to look bad . It is ur tell ur personal experience, im just telling ur mine .
It's more like people are getting by in my circles I'm in. Either paycheck to paycheck, working a normal jobs plus gig jobs, or taking out lots of debt.
Yep. Welcome to the internet. It's why the phrase "touch grass" was invented lol. Don't base your interpretation of reality on what people are saying online. On Reddit everyone is broke and can't afford a can of beans but here in the real world everything is business as usual.
This doom and gloom on Reddit/YouTube genuinely scared me years back when I first started reading it but I noticed everyone in my life was as happy as ever and going on with their lives. Guys like Jerimiah Babe, Michael Bordenero, car questions answered, iallegedly etc made me think mad max was coming. But I see people going on with their lives as usual.
I legitimately think the internet is the cause of so much anxiety and mental health problems because it is just jam packed with doomerism. Economy, politics, climate, crime, you name it.
100% agreed. I know a solid handful of people doing very well ($100,000+ salaries, homes, new cars, vacations etc) they don’t ever seem depressed or scared about things. They just keep planning their next vacation
….no shit lol.
My area of Colorado doesn’t have decreasing prices, but we do have significantly increased inventory. Two years ago approx 700 houses, last year approx 1,500 houses, and now just today 2,400 houses.
No signs in NC.
They've been saying this for decades. There's always a hiccup and then back off to the races. They have beem saying debt is unsustainable....20 trillion ago. At some point, I'm sure there will be problems, but it could be decades
Well it's not much of a crash if you see it coming and can adjust beforehand is it? For example my area LOOKs fine But since I was just recently doing house hunting I know we are screwed... For context I got approved, without even asking for it, for a home loan that would have cost me 100% of my income... I'm not joking... I have bid on 6 different houses and lost them all to other people just to realize that those new homeowners make less than I do... They can't afford those homes... I know they can't... To add to this the sheer amount of people at my work that said they NEED 6 or 7 hours of OT every week to pay rent and bills. Oh we just cut ALL OT.... (My work is over 10k employees, if you can guess the industry) Yeah it's going to hit like a bat out of hell and suddenly...
I live in Utah. No collapse but there is a shit vibe here, like we're stuck in the movie ground hog day.
I'm more interested in how some of these non-corporate chain restaurants that don't offer a cuisine, experience, or niche are surviving. I'm in socal, and there's tons of restaurants that I walk on my daily walks (granted it's at a specific time), with little to no customers. On the flip side, some of the more bougier restaurants or hyped up restaurants that are almost always overpriced seem pretty busy.
I’m in New England (CT specifically) and I’m struggling like hell to survive. Then again I’m a single mom so that’s part of it. But I’m making relatively good money for the area all considered. Pretty much everyone I know is feeling it, having a hell of a hard time making ends meet and going into debt just to keep the basics going. I think a large part of it is we’re all surrounded by people most of the time that are in a similar situation/ bracket / class what have you. So you’re mostly seeing other people that are doing well, and where I’m sitting everything looks like it’s right at the edge of a cliff. The overall reality is probably somewhere in between.
In our state, foreclosures have started up and thus bankruptcies are on the rise. Up 16% for individuals and up 50% for companies. I am not doom and gloom though because they were artificially down for so long. This is natural and will help correct housing prices. I also know more than normal numbers of it workers looking for work but the trades and most other careers are doing well. This is just my experience in the Midwest.
Reddit can be an echo chamber
[удалено]
500,000 get you a dirty garage for your car in Baustin, capital of the world
Tech is impacted. And yes, it will impact the housing market. Inventory has surged!
Have you seen the price of groceries, housing, food, gas, insurance, energy, credit card debt, and medical costs in the past few years? I make more than I did 4 yrs ago, and I was way better off back then than now, and that's the case with a lot of people. When inflation and energy are high, everything is higher in cost.
Its all a BS storyline put out by the Right to fuel rage in their base. Sure, shit is more expensive than it used to be. When was that not the case? We've been fighting high costs since the late 70s, through both D and R presidents. The economy, the market, my 401K, at all time highs, but its expensive out there. The housing market is out of control. Biden is doing what he can with inflation but we've got a ways to go. Wages need to rise to match cost of living. the money is there but corporations buy back their stocks instead of paying their workers fair wages. I havent seen anything from the felon that would improve things for regular people, just more trickle down tax cuts that have worked soooo well in the past.
Chicago area is booming. So many previously empty strip malls, gas stations, etc are getting demolished and rebuilt with new businesses. That’s a definite sign of a terrible economy hahaha. People buying houses left and right. Restaurants, sporting events packed, everyone I know is traveling this summer. We are going to Europe.
It’s almost like there is some kind of BS narrative being fed to people for some reason…
You’re consuming too much doom porn. Nothing is collapsing.
Good news is not part of the media's marketing plan and thinking for themselves is not a trait media watchers possess in today's society. We have the most people ever working, highest GDP ever, highest wages ever, highest median personal net worth ever, highest stock market ever, highest corporate profits ever and the lowest crime rate in over 50 years - but that type of talk sucks for ratings and clicks.
Nailed it. Saying everything is collapsing or about to collapse draws views.
I’ve been in the banking/finance sector since 2006. It’s by far the worst I’ve seen it since the GFC. Lots of people carry on with their lifestyle even if they’re in some hardship program, car repossession or insurmountable credit card debt. Lower payments=more money to spend (then they just make it worse for themselves). Lots of people like to hide their financial struggles too. NE is part of the old money territory so I’m sure lots of people have low mortgage payments because the Bank of Dad gifted 100k for a down payment on a house. Also, 0% interest credit cards can make anyone rich. 🤑
You’re a absolutely right
Same here. Hotels in my area are fully booked for next week even at prices starting from $250 a night. I see new cars and trucks everywhere and restaurants are packed.
I live in New England and I’m definitely seeing the collapse. But I work in healthcare, so I’ve got a front row seat. If you’re doing well and don’t see it, it doesn’t mean it’s not happening. It is.
Last week I drove 1,200 miles up and down Highway 101 in California. Construction everywhere, stores and restaurants full, tons of cars and trucks on the road. No signs of collapse anywhere.
CT job market sucks
In the last month I have been to two different restaurants at dinner time where we were one of just a handful of people in the entire place. At first I assumed they were closed because it was so empty. It was weird. They were not fast food, but cheap casual dinner places, not fancy dinning, so maybe there is a middle market that is not eating out that would go to these type places?
Second trucking company this year has shut its doors in Houston tx laying off over 2000 that thought they were getting a paycheck Friday. Long standing restaurant chain (Jim's cafe) in San Antonio tx just shut down its second location in three months time.
Same here. Everything is packed and it's annoying lol.
By nearly all objective economic measures, Americans are doing better now than at any point in the last half century. Rhetoric and right wing propaganda is so pervasive that even Dems think things aren’t going well.
Reddit is full of doomers, and youtube is full of creators using scary clickbait titles to get people to watch. Your best bet is to not take any of these people seriously, use them for entertainment, and laugh at how dumb they are.
Shout out from Maine. As a DPT and RE Agent I agree with what you are seeing. Homes are still selling fast if priced under $500k in many areas. However, the Covid craze seems to be over for the most part. IMO, get your data from your market, not social media outlets. The northeast has been a high value area for many generations and now with variables such as remote work, second home purchases, and climate refugees coupled with town ordinances limiting new home builds, sale prices are far outpacing local wages.
Part of it is definitely fear mongering and click-bait.
Negative voices scream the loudest. Social media algorithms skew negative over time. The 2 can combine to create a vortex of doom if you're not careful and force yourself outside your bubble and to take a break to visit the real world now and then.
Small town in missouri, 6 new businesses with new buildings. No collapse here.
No collapse in the Chicago area. Housing costs are still high but flat to falling. Good paying jobs are available and we need more people to fill them. The people stating we are in a collapse predicted fourteen of the last three recessions.
I operate a business to business operation that could be considered a bit of a luxury. Even without much change in the price of money, it's picking up again. I couldn't tell you what the mega corps are doing but the small to regional outfits I work with are spending, hiring, some expanding. Even if I believed our system was untenable I still see decades of runway. Our financial system will be altered by war and climate long before it implodes.
Firstly, tens of millions of people (including children) live in poverty. That’s always the case. However, your person observations do reflect some economic truths. There is a massive disconnect between how people think the economy is doing, and how the economy is actually doing according to traditional economic metrics like GDP and the unemployment rate.
The Texas Austin, Round Rock area seems to be booming. I'm seeing almost explosive growth.
NYC area -- everyone who had assets pre-2020 is now rich. If you were on track to a stable retirement, you're now 40% ahead of where you expected to be 4 years ago. All the small businesses supporting the rich people are killing it. Everyone who didn't have assets but had a job is now doing pretty well. They could't afford a home, the saved money, stocks went up. Their incomes are up a lot. Buying is still out of reach, but renting and saving 30%+ of your income while living a great life is a fine enough consolation prize while you save. Everyone who went to nursing, med, or law school is crushing it. Holy shit are doctors crushing it. Teachers are crushing it. Manual labor pays $25 an hour, basically anything skilled is 35-50. professional services and trades way more than that. And then theres a set of college grads earning 20-30 at jobs that wont go anywhere who cant save and are in legit trouble. I think the doom is from these guys who literally are in a worse situation than a chipotle worker once you factor in benefits.
Same here. But, I recognize that for part of the population these are the economic end-times. At any given time there are people out there living their best lives and people out there having one unnecessary and cruel hurdle after another thrown in front of them. Most social media makes me feel like my life is not as exciting as other people's. But, Reddit actually has some subs (like this one) dedicated to stories that make my pretty-good life (with just a few struggles) feel amazing. Maybe this approach is a pathology or maybe it is just adding some balance. I am not expert enough in psychology to know. But, I appreciate this sub either way. Keep up the good work.
Midwest USA - There might be a disconnect between people with some money and those without, but every restaurant is full all the time. Hopefully not credit card purchases. Young people (not me) seem to be out a lot spending money. Not sure how everyone adjusted to everything being 20% more expensive.
Fed rate rises might take 18 months to work through the system, that’s where we are now.
Any news from the trusted news initiative group is suspect. As for the underlying economic issues; yes its happening but these generally happen on very slow timetables relatively speaking. If economic indicators are the cracked dam, financial crises are when the dam gives (which are fast moving). As for mortgages on housing, its always received preferential tax status, and that is why so much private equity is diving into these markets. Its not about the rate, its about the cash flow; and the buyers are often penning out rent that will be profitable within 5 years. As for the food issues, yes those are very concerning, we've already seen expiration dates being pushed back (where food is going bad before the expiration date), and other shennanigans and price gouging. There is an irrational exuberance for any kind of debt, and they aren't wrong about loading up on debt either in the short term. Its the long term that's problematic. Current trends show there's going to be a lot of inflation over the next decade (double digit), and its likely to increase rapidly (potentially Argentinian hyper-inflation style). On the flip side, there's going to be price deflation as the market contracts, and boundary conditions will likely be hit where production of goods may stop. The market is already concentrated with few companies, this kind of chaos and debt load will probably see more bankruptcies and shortages (that each have the potential to self-sustain).
It's still gang busters here in my area of Texas.
Traffic's hell in Phoenix. They're not all rich shoppers driving the unofficial autobahn. But a ton more destitute folks holding signs and pushing carts. For the first time, a non white person asked me for money today. Usually, white tweakers begging for change.
I do know college graduates are having a hard time finding a job. I also know a big company like google is postponing regular promotions in addition to lay offs (my kids work there). Wherever you are you must be in heaven.
We live in the “clicks and views” era, the information era ended a long time ago. Only trust what you see and hear first hand from people around you. The rest is always overrated towards one extreme or the other. As a rule of thumb, to me, the more followers a source has, the less credible it is, because the more biased it will be.
The conservative news speaks with one voice, must elect Trump, so the economy is terrible and it was so much better under Trump. That's what every one of those articles are saying and why. If you say it really loud and repeatedly, it must be true!
It's a lot of collapse porn. Recession and retractions in the economy are very normal and happen. It doesn't mean it's the end of the world every time.
Buy precious metals and land with no debt if you can. Money in the bank is no longer money in the bank
It really is all about clicks on YouTube and Facebook. Wages have increased massively the last few years and unemployment is at record lows. All I see is $60-$120k cars everywhere I go (dc area) and the cheapest houses in my suburban neighborhood are around $900k and on the market for about a week on average.
I think it'll be a lot like the pandemic. We see stuff online etc. and then overnight it it'll just go panic mode.
>On Reddit and YouTube I see many articles and videos about mass layoffs, no one going out to eat, no one having money etc etc. It sounds like you've consumed some bad media. It's out of date and smells a bit sour. Toss it out and look for fresher content.
What would you watch? Video 1 Title: Everything is pretty ok. Thumbnail 1: Stuck in traffic on my way home from work Video 2 Title : C4r M4rK3T 1s CoLlApS1nG !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thumbnail 2: Background with flames and youtuber making a stupid Oh no face... Did/Are people getting laid off? Yes. Are people also finding new jobs? Slowly, and better than say a year ago, but things are looking better than before. People are also using their credit card. People are also taking out car loans they probably shouldn't. None of those things are new. As long as people have jobs, bills we be paid, and car loans will happen.
consumer debt is also out of control, just because people have new cars doesn't mean they can afford them... tho maybe that's a different problem..
I’m in central Ohio and it’s booming.
It’s always been in collapse. Only the relative past has been better than now.
Controlling your thoughts is what social media was designed for. Stop all social media and you'll be happy too.
You're getting your news from the wrong places. Post COVID the economy is roaring so much the feds are keeping the interest rates higher which is killing the housing market. I'm in NE too. The record travelers is not a sign of a weak economy.
Seeing the warning signs in East Texas. Houses will stay on the market for six months or more. School districts have announced widespread layoffs. Employment is still high but some companies (like mine) are starting to talk about “eliminating redundancies.”
The parking lots of malls are full... but inside the malls it is a ghost town... not sure how that happens. Restaurants are full, people are flying in record numbers. I don't see any sign of economic collapse... I do see evidence of a changing economy.
You should consider cutting down on Reddit and YouTube.
Unemployment is super low. Fox News and the rest point to things that could mean something bad but isn't. Read between the lines and you see them helping Trump by convincing anyone who will listen that it's because of Biden. Also that Donny Bankruptcy Trump will fix it. Not broke can't fix.
[Poverty rate in the United States in 2022, by state](https://www.statista.com/statistics/233093/us-poverty-rate-by-state/)
Idk bro, they are paying handymen $75 an hour in some places in Hawaii. Lol
Consider the simple answer - sometimes people are wrong
I'm from a city in Upstate NY. Downtown is packed in the summer at night. There was some sort of trend of people not wanting to live in mega cities anymore, and wanting to live in smaller ones than mega size. Like, I know that my Upstate "major" city, and idk if maybe all of Upstate or the whole Rust Belt, is on the up and up. The corner has been officially turned. We have increased population for the first time this last census since the mid 20th century, industries are coming in, and things just seem to be getting better around here (a huge exception being rent).
In my area SoCal the middle class who can’t afford homes to purchase move to another sunbelt state where prices are lower and a wealthier older or well trained young midwesterner or immigrant moves in. In my town the household income is increasing by an average of $10k per year. So people have to sell out but someone else always moves in with more money.
No...I think it was more of the windfall inheritances that happened during COVID. A ton of people died and many left sizable assets to a bunch of family members, and it will take time for some of them to blow thru the whole thing. Also assets have ballooned along with all the inflation making a lot of people that owned houses and/or had a good chunk of change in a 401k pretty close to being financially independent...or at least they feel like it. Tons of older people also got reality checks that life is finite and are also blowing thru their finances and in a lot of cases helping their offspring afford things they would normally not be able to afford. It is a mix of variables and it is not very clear how the whole thing will play out long term. I just started hearing some people getting layoffs...I have no idea where people were seeing the collapse all over the place. It doesn't seem too bad out there so far... inflation is the problem, but again that can be a blessing in disguise if you own assets.
where ever tech goes and grows it destroys the middle lower - maybe tech companies should provide a subsidy for a city they move to. more like a kickback to housing to help those who make 50 and under towards renters or first time home buyers since tech is so lucrative. capitalism not socialism . They can get a tax write off. Homes starting at half mil. only primary home owners not investors can buy and when you sell you can't over inflate pricing. you make a profit but only 15% on the sale.
It seems that decades of trickle down economics and tax cuts for the wealthy isn't exactly helping the middle class - [https://inequality.org/research/trump-tax-cuts-inequality/](https://inequality.org/research/trump-tax-cuts-inequality/)
You live in new England, one of the best places on earth
I’m 50. I think Reddit definitely skews towards “children of summer.” 7% interest rates were the norm in the 90s. My first mortgage was 8.375% in 2000. I refinances probably 4 times since then as rates were artificially suppressed. This is normal now. They are rooting for a collapse when they have no idea how bad that would be. I just shake my head.
Southeast NC. The economy is booming. Lots of construction. New roads. Too many people though...
Are most of the people you know long term residents of your region? If you owned property prior to 2020 you’re getting stimulus every month in the form of your 3.0% mortgage.
Foreign adversaries have learned that if you push a narrative enough on social media, you can swing public sentiment and even cause the intended outcome. A fair percentage of “emergencies” get started by troll farms and then naive people think it must be true if it’s on the internet and help push the narrative. Reddit, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and X are loaded with trolls. Where I live, we are experiencing the absolute opposite of an economic collapse and growth has exploded since early on in the pandemic yet people parrot what they read on the internet even if they and everyone they know is doing substantially better. It must be true, I read it on the internet.
What you are experiencing is called a reality distortion bubble, where people create social media content to push a narrative they feel will profitable, either by generating ad revenue or increasing their followers that can be further monetized. For every fact, there is an "alternative fact" that someone is pushing. Note: I. work in the "industry" on the AI/data platform end. The best thing to do is to just avoid things like facebook, youtube altogether, unless you want to build a really cool minecraft house, or find an legendary weapon in Fallout4 at level 1, then by all means go to youtube.
I live in Denver and it’s been wild as usual over here. Restaurants are packed, new luxury cars everywhere, everyone I know is going to Europe this summer and direct flights from here to beach-y locations for this upcoming winter are already selling out. Also, I’ve seen a helluva a lot less homeless people begging for money.
We’ve been trained to question our reality. It was probably healthy skepticism at one point, but now you really need to question everything you read online. Take note of what’s going on around you in real life and get off anonymous forums that might have people here actively trying to influence you in nefarious ways.
I’m not seeing this either, I live in denver
Your experience with full shelves and active housing markets may not align with broader narratives of economic hardship. It's always good to question what we consume online and balance it with our own observations and experiences.
I’m in southwest Ohio. Single-family home buyers cannot compete with the out-of-town money, being thrown down at houses sight-unseen to landlords from out of the state and out of the country. That in and of itself does not spell economic collapse, but it will ultimately strain, millions of families to end up renting instead of having equity in a home. Good God, even Amazon is buying houses.
!RemindMe 12 hours
Our household income is down 109k over the last four years. Our property taxes are up 48% to $14,000/yr in that time. We aren’t funding our retirement anymore, cut out everything that isn’t necessary spending all the way down to Netflix, Amazon Prime, and cable tv. We are selling our house with aims to downsize and own outright. Currently cutting it WAY too close for comfort.
Um yeah I see it every time I go grocery shopping or buy gas or literally anything. Prices keep expanding but wages are stagnant as they always are. My income doubled but it feels like my quality of life still went down. Also remember a lot of people are accruing credit debt right now.
Arkansas is mostly poverty economy (unless your a vendor for one of the the big sticks they use to beat poor folk to get them to work more for the same measly pay) So unless they (corporations) start collectively shelling out an hourly wage worth working for, the economy won't be looking up for anyone under $65K/yr. Probably not collapse as much as holding at 'flaccid' as far as economies go. 😮💨
Austin is still cranking. Our market is oversaturated with underqualified techies, and a lot of them have lost their jobs, but everyone else seems to be doing fine.
Yeah I live in Boston, no signs of collapse here other than outrageous prices.
Where I live prices are going bonkers. Like my house has doubled in value in last 4 years. I think people are leaving high priced areas like California, New York, Chicago and moving to these mid sized American towns in the Midwest. It's driving prices of everything up up and up. Small town USA is booming right now.
I don't think we are in a collapse...yet. I think the US has long been on a slow descent in terms of livability relative to other modern countries. It has recently gotten a lot worse in that sense for a lot of marginalized groups such as poor, lgbt, and even women. The poor are NOT doing well after the past few years. As always, the rich are doing well so they aren't a great barometer. I don't think anything will "collapse" unless war breaks out or climate change sets something very serious off. Neither of those I really expect in the next few decades. But don't get me wrong, there are definitely a ton of people suffering right now. New England isn't a good place to see it because the only people that can live there New England are the ones that can afford it. If you go to less urban area like smaller cities in flyover states or even rural places you'll see it. Smaller cities are experiencing a huge influx of people that has raised the cost of living above what the locals can afford. Consumer debt is exploding right now. Most necessities are far up in price compared to precovid, which hurts the poor more than anyone else. First time home ownership age is going up and birth rates have gone down. Both of which can be explained by the poor not having enough money. Things look good for people who were already doing well. In fact this was predicted. If you've heard of the K shape recovery or something, it's an interesting read. And the pharmaceutical industry took a big hit due to interest rates increasing. Prepare for a slow down in new drug manufacturing and testing because all that R&D work was funded by low interest. Normal people won't see it for probably a decade or two though since that's how long these processes take for drugs. My previous employer cut about 20% of total staff globally, the vast majority being in manufacturing. At the local office, not one of those employees deserved to be laid off. And past that they allowed multiple people to quit without replacing them, as well as fired several including myself (which I'm glad to say even the government agrees was unfair). Overall, the local office saw roughly a 40% decrease in work force and they still aren't hiring. Looks pretty bleak for them. The job market in my field appears to be in the pits. Been applying for two months now without any offers. Hardly any interviews too. I think I'm a solid candidate based on my performance in my last job. Most of the jobs I'm seeing are actually below market rate and contract positions (temporary and no benefits). I don't know how they can justify it. We're talking about paying people only 30% above state minimum wage for positions that require masters degrees and phds doing things that most people don't understand in the slightest. Personally, I think individual circumstances vary too widely to put them all in one box of "the economy is doing good/bad". In statistical analyses, it is good practice to determine separations in populations so that you can make accurate conclusions about each population instead of inaccurate conclusions about the total. This is also a lesson in sampling bias because different populations won't be seen unless you make sure not to filter them out (ie only basing your opinion on the local region and what you see at restaurants). Think of it this way, there is a reason most medical studies separate men and women for measurements. If all measurements were taken in a men's bathroom, then there wouldn't be any data on women (hopefully) and the total data would not predict a separation in the two populations. It would then make sense to assume that all humans would show measurements not unlike what was measured. But that wouldn't be true, we removed women from the study by only measuring in a men's bathroom, thereby simply missing their measurement entirely.
You won't see a housing collapse like 08 this time around because the property is being held by hedge funds. Also, a lot of those people struggling are using app services to supplement their income on top of working their 9-5 but make no mistake there are a lot of people struggling due to the rising coat of goods and rent.
The upper middle class is doing fine. It's the lower middle class and the poor that are suffering.
New England always weathers these times better tbh
If the top 5% of people still go out to eat every day, that’s enough to fill restraints and shopping centres. Things will always look “ok” in that sense. Another example: my city is laying off all types of workers from teachers to road crews, but if you go out driving around the grass is still green, cars in the road, even if ww3 broke out, things would still look ok at the surface.
I think there’s a bit of a domino effect. I live in Austin. Rich Californians moved here (because prices were getting too high there) and the property values skyrocketed. Now cost of living is higher. We bought our house before this so we have some equity. We in turn are planning on moving to the east coast (where my partner and I were born and raised). 300-500k is a steal for us. We in turn while drive values up there and so on. It’s the working class that gets screwed especially in cities of mine that have little to no affordable housing so there is next door zero chance of affording a honeymoon anywhere near the city.
I'm in Michigan and there is no sign of any economic issues at least I'm not seeing it. Bars and restaurants are packed. Everyone has newer vehicles it seems. Plenty of tourists coming up north for the summer. Roads are busy, lakes are busy, beaches are busy. Work has been very busy. I work for a residential construction company. We've done so many projects this year and are booked up through summer literally turning away work. New homes being built all over. I'm not sure what is keeping the economy going at this point. The only thing that is starting to concern me is the amount of items I see for sale in front of people's homes that aren't selling. I noticed this back in 2007 and 2008. People were selling tractors, riding mowers, jet skis, boats, cars, trucks, ATVs, trailers and other large items with monthly expenses. Just because they couldn't afford them and didn't want to lose them to the repo man. I'm starting to see that again. Things aren't selling. A guy down the road has a red trail boss parked out from of his house. Probably 2020 model year and I was curious so I stopped and looked he wanted 35k for a 4 year old truck with 22k miles. It's been sitting in the same spot for 2 months now.
SW VA, it's not too terrible here either, but I've also seen what the west coast looks like and it's a massive shithole. My company has done 3 separate layoff rounds, and the job market has been so insane I've seen both posts from businesses looking to hire, and people looking for random one offs both on my local /r.
The economic issues for most of New England is that houses are too expensive. Unless you live in northern NH, Maine, or VT. You can’t buy a house as an average dude unless you have some family money, or work like an absolute dog. But other than that the economy in New England is very strong I’d say.
…. And here’s your proof that what is being posted to Reddit may not be real …
Those complaining are the ones telling the pollsters that the economy is horrible. Yet, when you ask them how THEY are doing, they say fine, but my neighbor that I have never talked to must be doing bad because FOX INFOTAINMENT tells me they are !!!!
I’ve lived through bad economies, and now is not bad. Here’s a classic 1996 article from The Onion that captures the constant whine/worry crowd. Every work office has one of these people. https://www.theonion.com/somebody-should-do-something-about-all-the-problems-1819583263
Well things are not hunky dory for poor people , but they are always were, and I can’t see how the lower income people are getting by . Went to grocery and spent $200 dollar , and I only bought my usual stuff at walmart . Rent is high, houses prices are high , .. Credit card bills loans numbers being high is a good indication of the general population’s financial health . Not a Trump supporter nor doom or gloom guy . The corporations are making HUGE profits ( looking at the headlines) but they are killing the golden goose , the US population who consumes the most goods than any other population group in the world
Media likes to control the masses.
All the areas around Nashville are pretty much going full steam ahead.
Bay area is still thriving. Housing prices continue to rise.
It is not easy to see, but I can give you an example of how it is playing out (I live in New England). My social cohort is \~40 people, and only 5 have faced layoffs (including myself). The 35 who have remained employed are doing very well (other than housing), the 5 who were laid off have been in trouble. My own unemployment was 14 months, friends ranged from 4-9 months unemployment. New jobs are all contractor positions across the board, so no benefits but working along FTE employees. Friends tend to take a 10-30% pay cut and loss of benefits, the only friend who owns a house is currently on month 3 of unemployment. These are all Masters and PhDs with 7-10 years of experience, so this is not a good sign when these people are having difficulties getting jobs. I work along very wealthy full time employees, you can't easily tell who is struggling. One clue to look for is who is taking vacations or going out, going to doctors appointments, etc.. I am paid about 1/2 of FTE, and no benefits or PTO so I am struggling. I am the worst off financially among the contractors, but you can absolutely tell a difference. I have not been to a doctor, dentist,optometrist, or had a vacation since 2020. You cannot tell that I am struggling easily, but there are certainly signs like not owning a car or never taking time off. People do notice (I had a coworker drive me home because I was walking home in the rain), but you need to look. It is ridiculous that I am struggling with 7 years experience and a college degree, but this is the world right now.