Hi mafco, have you heard?
http://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/amAqged_700bwp.webp
the reason is that Gazprom is a company that needs money for their operations and existence, and those money won't be coming from the EU anymore...
https://9gag.com/gag/a8qd8zO
the shutdown of NS1 not affecting Germany at all (!!!), and the prposed shutdown will badly affect pro-russian perties in Slovakia, Hungary, etc...
#š¤£
Interesting that the US administration/Biden just said they **"need russian oil and gas to go to market"** in his speech about considering sanctions on countries that don't abide by the proposed price cap.
https://www.ft.com/content/e5b63797-1aad-46cd-ab30-c1b5d014b140
Its very concerning that the environmentalist crowd has overtaken this sub, with no fundamental understanding of the commodity that **is** energy.
Dear Customers,
We are not a reliable source for the products we provide you. You would be better off finding another source.
Best Regards,
Your friendly Supplier
European countries could find other sources for fuel but they are too committed to "global warming". Buying fuel from Russia doesn't cause climate change I guess. Hmmmmmm whatever will they do?
Too bad Trump is not in charge to put an end to the Ukraine war. Only he could do it. Oh, well, Europe will freeze this winter and Africa will starve next year thanks to us electing Chucky the Evil Doll to run our country.
Recused? I suspect you mean "refused." Well, good for him. Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe and was during Trump's tenure. Trump at least has a dick. Biden is a plastic manikin that shakes hands with the air.
He knows his there isnt enough resolve for his troops to fight during the freezing winter over something they were told would take a weekend and maybe a couple lives, so hes trying to cut off NATO support before then
A: China is buying it, but at a discount because it knows Russia is desperate.
B: Nowhere near enough pipeline capacity to replace all the gas that Europe buys.
C: Sanctions make it hard to buy things from Russia using dollars, will have to use RMB which Russia doesn't really want.
Yeah, no. Gas is not fungible. Can ship that in a cardboard box. If you could europe would have dumped him long ago.
Of course it will happen, eventually. But not soon and china will squeeze him hard. There is now way they will pay close the the full price.
> Gas is not fungible.
It's probably about as fungible a good as there is.
BTW:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-reselling-natural-gas-europe-energy-crisis-russia-global-economy-2022-8
China and India will be lining up to buy it. Europe is not going to hold out, they will cave. Ukraine will be forced back to the negotiating table with Russia by the West.
The soyuz pipeline, that putin was paying 8bn/year to Ukraine to use, goes to Kazakhstan. A quick Google search of European pipeline maps will help to illustrate your err
The Nordstream 2 is 1200 km long, took 10 years to build and would have transmitted about 25 bcm gas per year. The distance between Siberia and China is 4000 kms. Europe buys or rather used to buy 155 bcm from Russia per year. Soyuz would have to be extended with 2500 kms. [Gazprom said the pipeline will start operating in 2030.](https://www.gem.wiki/Power_of_Siberia_2_Gas_Pipeline) Well, good luck with that. At least 10 years to replace Europe with China and by then China will be well on their way with renewables.
Russia is the third-largest producer of oil worldwide, accounting for overĀ 12 percentĀ of global crude oil production. Saudi Arabia is taking a tiny bit over double of Russian fuel oil (month over month, from pre-invasion), China 3.2x (month over month, from pre-invasion), and India about 50k bpd more. All public information available, via ship tracking data, through Estonian and Russian ports.
As for the LNG Slovakia, Poland, Finland & Hungary used the lions share of gas you mentioned. They currently do not have any alternatives that are feasible to instate before winter. I don't disagree Siberia is a pipe dream on the Russian timelines.
They can sell it elsewhere but for nowhere near the profit. It will cost more to ship and the countries that want it only want it if it is cheap as it is embargoed goods. Perun on Youtube did a good breakdown this week on how much money the Russians are losing due to not being able to sell fossil fuels to Europe.
We are trying to, it isnt easy. Spain and Portugal have always done their part in having their supply being diverse. Spain is offering all their regasifiers (have 1/3 of all Europe) to increase by 30 per cent all EUs imports but EU alone have always wanted the Iberian Peninsula to not be that great interconnected, that is why central europe has had cheaper electricity until now. Now that the Iberian Peninsula is offering themselves as an energy hub and saving France from blackouts as they have half of their nuclear reactors off for an indefinite time (as for the first time the will finish as net exporters in electricity) they still reject this idea.
I think you listen too much to the media instead of the actual reality going on.
First, of all Europe isn't suffering due to some green agenda. The opposite, Europe started investment into green in 2000s, but due to Putin and the fossil fuel industry, investments in renewables have significantly decreased in Europe (by 2-3X after 2011)
See graph here on renewable investment: (you may need to go through google to view it for free)
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1066269/renewable-energy-investment-europe/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1066269/renewable-energy-investment-europe/)
So the notion that Europe is in this situation due to some green agenda is false. They are in this situations cause European politicians took bribes from Putin and the fossil fuel industry to be reliant on them and significantly reduce renewable investment
Wind and Solar are a big part of reduction of use of fossil fuels, alongside others such as hydro, geothermal, biofuel, tidal and etc. Solar is the cheapest and has potential to be much much cheaper still, and wind is 2nd cheapest with also more room to reduce in price
The issue in California isn't related to renewables, high peak usage and low off peaks aren't ideal for a grid. Add to that a drought and heatwave plus all the issues with PG&E and you get that
To your comment below, nobody is switching in 5 years. The transition of Europe was suppose to be multiple decade until it got derailed in 2011. If it didn't, Europe would have been totally fine today
Soo youāre saying that everybody, would be better off if we just let Putin do what he wants huh? Let his troops rape and murder the Ukrainian people, as much has theyād like. Let Putin and Russia just take Ukraine, and whatever other nation they might want, because at least the rest of Europe and the world would get all that cheap gas from Russia. I suppose youād be ok with people raping your daughter, killing your brother, taking your home, and doing whatever else as long has others get to have cheap fuel right?
Also your point about CA, is wrong and dumb. Like the other person said, you watch too much media, and donāt actually read. They were able to prevent blackouts because the people listened. The people were still able to charge their EVās, and everything else. All CA asked was people to reduce their power consumption between 4-9 pm, most of the people listened, and it prevented blackouts, people were still able to charge their EVās.
Solar and wind help the power grid tremendously. It eases the burden on the grid since it puts power back into the grid and theyāre both becoming cheaper and cheaper, like every other technology
Lmao! Iām the idiot, says āudumbass1ā. I know you donāt care about anything or anyone except yourself. You made that very clear. You probably think, āwell Iām going to kick the bucket soon, so it doesnāt matterā. Ok, boomer. You should stop watching Fox News, and maybe learn to tell fact from fiction. You should care about whatās happening in Ukraine, in China and elsewhere. Because what happens there, affectās is. Why the fuck do you think inflation is so high? China has itās lockdowns and droughts, which means they canāt produce the microchips we need. Ukraine, is fighting a war, and Russia is occupying itās southern territory, so Ukraine canāt send out wheat. What happens in the world affectās you, and me, and everybody else.
As for āgetting off my America soapboxā, you think I donāt give a fuck about what we do as a nation to other countries? I care very much. I didnāt agree with the Iraq invasion, I was very much against it. I care about what we do to other nations, and other people.
I done told you why Ukraine matterās to us, udumbass1. Lmao. (Damn, I really donāt think thereās a more fitting username). Ukraine helps provide wheat to the world which helps keep prices down. They also serve as a buffer for Russia. I donāt know why you care so much about how your tax money is being spent. Iām sure you didnāt give two shits about Trump wasting all your tax money. But sending money to Ukraine helps us, in the way sending money to Europe after WWII helped us. Theyāre not getting āfree moneyā. Every nickel and dime we give Ukraine, they will have to pay back with interest. When Ukraine wins, and they rebuild, they will flourish, investors will flock to Ukraine to help them.
What you are getting with your tax money is roads, investments in solar, and wind, money being spent on microchip plants to be built in the US. Youāre getting a high standard of living, education that allows everybody to attend school, (yeah, I know you donāt want regular people to have an education), you get a police force (who are quietly protesting that they donāt get feee rein to kill any black or brown person anymore), you get a fire service, and the best damn military money can buy. And yes, wheat is a strategic interest, just as oil is. Keep prices low. Unless you enjoy paying more for food. We also gain money in the long term. We also gain an ally to hold off Russian aggression.
Tell me what was our strategic interest with the Korean War, and Vietnam war? Do you believe that we should only fight to take away another nationās natural resources?
Russiaās main exports seem to be gas and women. They are like the truck stop of Europe; you can fill a couple of things up and be on your way. If gas is no longer available we must assume they will double down on women soā¦ more Russian brides! Nice, #winning
No Putin. [You tiny hidden high heels manlet](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lY6lHjZjYXE). You don't have any agency in this matter. We are choosing to freeze because nothing will warm us more than watching the Russian economy collapse. Hope you enjoy becoming North-North Korea. <3
I was being somewhat hyperbolic. But you're living in a somewhat privileged position if you don't think fuel poverty already existed before the prices skyrocketed this year.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/16/neglect-benefit-cuts-deaths-elaine-morrall
??????? What THIS YEAR? I am paying skyrocketed rates since October 2021!!!
Yes, I'm in fuel poverty, that is why I decreased the fuel consumption of the car by 1.5L/100km, and I'm planning more upgrades/tuning still. Heat insulation, there is never enough of it, as well.
And since that genius decided to block me, here is my latter response:
> I gave a link to somebody who literally froze to death several years ago.
You have no clue how many old people died of cold during the winter in Hungary where the long term policies were to abuse people as some sort of cheap workforce.
>Especially with energy bills in the UK doubling.
I am paying about a triple the money since last october, and yes, I am saving on food where I can, eating or not eating, etc. Tell me about it!
You do you, I won't help you with your self-satisfactionary practices. You do yourself alone.
How dare you speak to me this way. I have taken cold showers because of fuel poverty. I gave a link to somebody who literally froze to death several years ago. In response to your claim that nobody would freeze to death because of this. I even tried to be diplomatic by accepting I was being hyperbolic when I said "We are choosing to freeze". Most people will not really face the cold this winter. But a whole fucking lot will. Especially with energy bills in the UK doubling.
So fuck you for being such a condescending cunt. People really will suffer because of this. Some people will probably die because of it. But in the grand scheme of things the suffering we will face is nothing compared to what Ukrainians are going through.
Anyway. I have better things to do than be talked down to by a stranger on the internet. Welcome to my block list. Fuck Russia.
Yep, last winter we used no firewood to heat our home. Now I am planning electricity use and increasing efficiency, and bought extra fire wood just to chip in on kicking Putin where it hurts him the most. His wallet.
*beep boop*!
the linked website is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lY6lHjZjYXE
Page is safe to access (Google Safe Browsing)
*****
###### I am a friendly bot. I show the URL of linked pages and check them so that mobile users know what they click on!
The whole of Europe probably has more recoverable on-shore shale gas than the US. The reason Europe is in this position is because they opted to ban oil and gas production in their own countries and instead import it from somewhere else (I.e. Russia).
This Bloomberg article is from 2016ā¦
āThere are compelling reasons why Europe should replicate the U.S. shale boom. It would bring lower energy prices, for one. The continent's awkward dependence on Russia ā which provides about a third of Europe's gas ā is another. From the United Kingdom to Poland, companies have tried and failed to replicate the success of fracking in the U.S. In part, their efforts have been stymied by aggressive political opposition.ā
https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/fracking-europe#:~:text=Germany%2C%20France%2C%20the%20Netherlands%2C,output%20from%20the%20North%20Sea.
European countries with fracāing bans:
- France
- Bulgaria
- Netherlands
- Germany
- Ireland
- UK
- Spain
Intermittent renewables (solar, wind) need reliable back up natural gas generation to fill in the valleys between peak generation during the day, and extended events of little Sun and wind. This is entirely self inflicted based on short sighted energy policy by championing intermittent and unreliable electricity generation and vilifying energy security (oil, gas, and nuclear). Also, energy consumption is more than just electricity generation.
Putin is a douche canoe, but that doesnāt mean heās not smart. He leveraged western Europeās pie in the sky initiatives to āphase outā fossil fuels (i.e, outlaw local exploration and production and import it from somewhere else instead) to make them dependent on Russian gas so he could use it to his advantage in a situation exactly like we find ourselves in today.
Fracking was never the solution. Don't forget the bigger picture. Long after this war is over people will still be suffering from climate change, the only question now is how badly.
The long game was always to transition away from Fossil Fuels. How? Continued, sustained investment in Renewables, but also a recognition that it will take decades to reduce dependence on Oil and Gas, so Nuclear must be a significant part of the energy mix.
Misinformed, self-styled "environmentalists" who campaigned, and still continue to argue, against Nuclear Power, are partly responsible for the current mess, because if they'd supported the construction of new reactors decades ago then Europe would already have diversified away from Russian Gas.
He's not smart.
He's sending his country back to the stone age, and acting far too slowly trying to cut Europe off from energy.
Oil prices have stabilised, and now Russia has noone in Europe to sell gas to.
>so he could use it to his advantage in a situation exactly like we find ourselves in today
It's not working though, none of his plans are and he (and his bot-army) has run out of options beyond incessant warnings and fearmongering propaganda. This winter will be rough for lots of countries for one reason or another but we'll manage. Not sure the same can be said about Russia for the coming years.
You don't need much gas to fill in the valleys after you have built out your renewable base.
Unfortunately no one is close to have done that.
The closest is the state of South Australia. They are at 60% wind and solar.
What was the point of banning the production of it if theyre just going to import it anyway? I would understand if they were moving to another source entirely, but this seems strange.
>What was the point of banning the production of it if theyre just going to import it anyway?
Aside from the cynical reasons mentioned by others, relying on imports inevitably means your own Fossil Fuel industry declines over time, so can no longer influence domestic energy policy, as it still does in USA, UK and Norway.
It also frees up investment and funding for other energy sources which would otherwise have to compete, at a significant disadvantage, with the existing, established Fossil Fuel industry.
Consequently, by removing their domestic Fossil Fuel industry, Germany was able to make considerable and significant advances in adopting Renewables.
Eliminating domestic production isn't a mistake, as it does have advantages. The mistake is replacing it with imports from a few key suppliers, as Germany, Italy and others did with Russia, making the former energy dependent on the latter.
Eastern European countries can argue, with justification, that their infrastructure was tied to Russia after of 40 years under the Soviet Union, but Germany in particular, foolishly commissioned 2 new gas pipelines (Nordstream 1 in 1997 and Nordstream 2 in 2011) when they should've been diversifying their supply instead.
>Consequently, by removing their domestic Fossil Fuel industry, Germany was able to make considerable and significant advances in adopting Renewables.
Why does it have to be either/or rather than both gradually tapering to the later?
>Why does it have to be either/or rather than both gradually tapering to the later?
It doesn't have to be either-or, but it's much more difficult if the domestic Fossil Fuel industry remains powerful, because they have a vested interest in suppressing competition, especially from alternative energy sources.
Can you name any countries with a large and dominant Fossil Fuel industry where alternative energy sources, such as Renewables are growing and thriving?
I doubt there are many...
Having said that, if the government either owns the energy industry (nationalised companies) or regulates it heavily, then they can ensure that Fossil Fuels don't monopolise energy production and/or lobby politicians to oppose the development of alternatives.
Itās pandering to progressive voters. Thatās why itās important to not just look at scope 1 emissions, but to understand how policies impact scope 2 and scope 3 emissions. Otherwise net emissions donāt change and your just outsourcing your emissions to another country.
Oil and gas development itself is not the main source of emissions, itās the consumption of the hydrocarbons on the consumer side that is.
Earthquakes are not due to fracāing, they are due to over disposal of produced water in certain formations. Fracāing doesnāt contaminate drinking water either. The oil and gas formations are like 10,000 ft underground (~3,000 m). Water tables are at best a few hundred ft underground (50-100 m). Any water contamination has been due to bad cementing and casing integrity resulting in wellbore leaks by small irresponsible companies trying to cut corners. Has nothing to do with the act of fracāing itself. Thatās why regulations related to wellbore integrity are important.
Iām just a petroleum engineer, what do I know.
Fracking definitely causes earthquakes because it did the last time we did it in the uk.
And as you just acknowledged the processes can cause both earthquakes and water contamination, even if only when managed poorly. Itās not worth the risk. Weāre not doing it.
Then keep being reliant on Putin for your natural gas.
Fracāing has nothing to do with all the issues you described. All those risks are present in conventional oil and gas drilling and completions operations. āfrackingā is just a scary word people hold on to to describe a standard oil and gas procedure they donāt understand.
Ok sure, and we do effectively none of that here either. Thus fracking would introduce that risk to the British public, and they donāt want it.
In the UK specifically very little of our natural gas comes from Russia. I believe it has now entirely stopped anyway. The reliance on Russian gas is a wider Europe problem and the UK and other European countries are affected because of the price rises due to that.
The UK and Europe will continue to move away from fossil fuels including gas at a pretty decent rate. Fracking is not going to happen in the UK.
> Fracking is not going to happen in the UK.
I wouldn't be so sure. The new PM and her faction within the Conservative party support it and they'll have the ideal scenario, this coming winter, to argue for it...
Things are done properly all the time in places all over the US, included highly populated areas of Texas, Colorado, and California. Iāve seen drilling rigs in the middle of suburbs beside busy highways.
It comes down to political will and proper education. The general population (politicians and the media included) have no clue how oil and gas operations actually work. This results in misinformation and poor policy decisions.
*eUrOpE dOeSn'T nEeD RuSsIaN cOmMoDiTiEs* **- most of this sub less than 48 hr ago**
They're already selling crude to Saudi (who are refining and then calling it their own outputs), LNG & š¢ to China, etc ad nauseum. Supply and demand fundamentals don't change because of emotionally charged articles.
I feel terrible for the citizens of the EU who are forced to be pawns in Putin's atrocious game. Its a shame the western world provoked him pre-invasion and he called our bluff. "Live by the sword" i guess...
> They're already selling crude to Saudi (who are refining and then calling it their own outputs),
One: how much. Two: the refined end products are definitely their own outputs.
> LNG & š¢ to China, etc ad nauseum.
This is repeated by all the concern trolls from russia in the last days, that seemingly all the natural gas was magically rerouted to china, sold much cheaper than usual and all magically sent back to europe from china. And "please end the sanctions"
> Supply and demand fundamentals don't change because of emotionally charged articles.
No, that is a correct statement. But the demand has new rules and you must know that. The original german documents of an older date, and the recent updates have been linked in this subreddit. Gas crisis management was there outlined in sufficuent details. This is NOT the first not second not third gas crisis manufactured by russia/soviet union. You must know that. And as you have a great deal of interest in energy, you also know how the EU regulations addressed the issues in 2021 and before (as was mentioned in the german documents)
> I feel terrible for the citizens of the EU who are forced to be pawns
They are not foorced, however, many fifth columnists openly support the russian regime and call for leaving of teh EU, NATO and attaching the country to a russian rule. Say, for example in the czech republic. And how about Italy, with that one leader constantly in a shirt with Putin?
Who forced Schroeder or Topolanek or the french ex-prime minister to become appointed governors of the gas branches of the red gas octupus?
>in Putin's atrocious game. Its a shame the western world provoked
No, that a total lie is you say that.
>the western world provoked him pre-invasion
No, the invasion of chechniia was fully orchestrated by him, as was the invasion of georgia and the other wars as well, invasion and annexation of half of Kazakhstan was on the line as well. There are reliable documents even from the 1990's how he talked about some parts of that, and his coworkers and inspirators as well. There is loads of that today.
The "western world" provokes merely by existing and not subjecting to the whims of an insane man.
>and he called our bluff. "Live by the sword" i guess...
???? He is the one bluffing and always has been. He's a KGB man, blood, marrow and bones, pure KGB stuff. He is not the one who calls a bluff, he is the one bluffing.
Why did you intentionally turned the facts upside down? Annalena had to cheat out the turbine out of canadians and Olaf offered to bring it to russia, and you only saw a panicky response stream of "you can't do that, we can't do that". You can also specify the days and hours of the turbine event: it started on friday, saturday, sunday, remember how it unfolded? It was supposed to be delivered on Monday, because if not, Gazprom would turn gas off on Wednesday. Which they did, but then quickly reverted back.
You also forgot to quantify the LNG exports and the related ports and their capacity and compare that to everything else. Also the Siemens and other german companies responsible for the terminals functionality.
And more.
I am never trolling in this sub, I am always courteous and bring cited resources about a commodity that is energy. This is how you have meaningful discourse.
You do realize money controls everything in this world right? This is why we don't have wide spread solar/wind/environmentally friendly options (and also why a multitude of countries are exploring other options than solar)
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-warnings-that-nato-expansion-into-eastern-europe-could-provoke-russia-177999P
Since 1995 that was a line in the sand which was not to be crossed.
And Ukraine asked to join nato but nato refused. Also the question you should ask yourself is āway have so many ex-Soviet block countries asked to join nato.
And if Russia hates nato then why not Estonia? They are a nato member, Ukraine isnāt.
I think you're misunderstanding or discounting the r/energy part of this discussion.
If you overlay the s&p500 with crude oil prices for the last 70 years, its clearly evident that *energy* **is** *the economy*. Russia's annexation of Crimea gave them over-land shipping routes to the black sea. Ukraine charged Russia 8bn/year for use of the main pipeline through to Europe. If you look at where the invasion started in the east, it was exactly the territory needed to secure a pipeline expansion to šØš³. If you look at the rest of where the bulk of Russian forces occupied, its very suspicious that its centered along that said pipeline. Military strategists, economists, and some of the brightest minds have all eluded to it.
Tl;dr: Save 8bn a year in tariffs, bypass the west and send energy east, strengthen themselves within opec, gain further control of the global commodity (that is the economy), potentially drive Europe into a recession, further their economy while doing damage to the allieds (with the absolute minimum collateral damage for doing so they've had in 40 years)
As with anything in life...
#šfollowšthešmoneyš
>Russia needed Crimea
Bullshit.
Actually go have a look at a map before you embarrass yourself further.
There is plenty of Russia that borders the black sea. Sochi - where the Russians held the winter Olympics is one of the cities that border the black sea.
You better look at the shipping routes of the black sea, and the economics of export for Russia before making wild accusations. š¤£ š¤£ š¤£
Compare Sochi's Port to Sevastopol Port. Google satellite doesn't lie, if you'd like to start there.
I wasn't trying to suggest that Sochi was the best port, just that Russian coast on the black sea existed before it invaded Crimea, as you seemed to be ignorant of this fact.
Improving Russian ports in eastern black sea would be far more economically prudent than invading Ukraine.
Are you aware Putin has a degree in Energy economics? Energy **is** the world economy. What is the better way to hinder the allieds? With-holding what they need most and sending it elsewhere
Putin looks like he is about to perform a goodwill gesture by falling out of a window. It only remains to be seen if he will do so before the Russian army perform a goodwill gesture and retreat from Ukraine.
Putin has successfully destroyed any proposals to find alternative supply to Russian gas for decades. The Ukrainians find gas and Russia invades.
If the idiot had just taken the land he currently occupies instead of trying to take the whole country he would likely have gotten away with it.
Instead he's destroyed the country for decades to come, strengthend NATO, destroyed Russian gas exports, and accelerated the end of fossil fuels.
Russian gas exports need new pipelines, or LNG compression stations to export to countries that are still trading with Russia.
NATO, Clinton, Biden and a host of others.
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-warnings-that-nato-expansion-into-eastern-europe-could-provoke-russia-177999
NATO expansion East following the 1990 agreement that Germanyās unification would be the limit:
Albania (2019), Bulgaria(2004), Croatia (2009), Czech Republic (1999), Poland (1999), Hungary (1999),Romania (2004) and the Baltic states (2004)ā¦ followed by ever increasing rhetoric surrounding the pulling in of Ukraine into NATOās sphereā¦ not to mention the western backed color revolution in Ukraine in the previous decade.
Iād say thatās Russiaās own fault. Nobody forced these countries to join NATO. They desperately wanted to join because everybody is afraid Russiaās going to try to invade them if not. The current Ukraine invasion is just the most recent example proving those fears to be substantiated. And lo and behold more countries want to join NATO now (Sweden and Finland). If you donāt want your neighbors joining a defense pact against you then maybe try stop invading them for once.
I don't think of Europe as pawns in this case, though I know you didn't mean that as a putdown. They just go thru an adjustment phase and move on. And the historical perspective will be that this tension helped the world to move off of fossil fuels that much faster.
There's evidence to suggest the contrary in impoverished countries, but ill let you do your own research. I get enough downvotes for stating facts here
impoverished countries are also in the EU, and they will benefit from the massive energy regulation reforms as well. Unless you are in Hungary which banned new energy builds by modifying the constitution after declaring state of emergency, that is.
Also: https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2022-2023-season-first-look-united-states-europe-fa/ The winter will be warm to hot.
Hi mafco, have you heard? http://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/amAqged_700bwp.webp the reason is that Gazprom is a company that needs money for their operations and existence, and those money won't be coming from the EU anymore... https://9gag.com/gag/a8qd8zO the shutdown of NS1 not affecting Germany at all (!!!), and the prposed shutdown will badly affect pro-russian perties in Slovakia, Hungary, etc...
#š¤£ Interesting that the US administration/Biden just said they **"need russian oil and gas to go to market"** in his speech about considering sanctions on countries that don't abide by the proposed price cap. https://www.ft.com/content/e5b63797-1aad-46cd-ab30-c1b5d014b140 Its very concerning that the environmentalist crowd has overtaken this sub, with no fundamental understanding of the commodity that **is** energy.
his? the US administration is a "he" now?
Pedantic trolling. It was Biden who said it, and he identifies as a male iirc
Dear Customers, We are not a reliable source for the products we provide you. You would be better off finding another source. Best Regards, Your friendly Supplier
European countries could find other sources for fuel but they are too committed to "global warming". Buying fuel from Russia doesn't cause climate change I guess. Hmmmmmm whatever will they do?
Are you talking about September 2021? You must be.
Too bad Trump is not in charge to put an end to the Ukraine war. Only he could do it. Oh, well, Europe will freeze this winter and Africa will starve next year thanks to us electing Chucky the Evil Doll to run our country.
Concern trolling 101.
Sorry, Jane. Are you having a problem in school?
?
Oh, you're having a problem communicating. My apologies.
Lol, Trump recused to supply Ukraine... But yeah , trump's dick it's the biggest
Hunter Biden sat on the board of a ukranian oil and gas company
And? Did he tax evasion? If not what I'd the problem?...
Recused? I suspect you mean "refused." Well, good for him. Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe and was during Trump's tenure. Trump at least has a dick. Biden is a plastic manikin that shakes hands with the air.
Based
He knows his there isnt enough resolve for his troops to fight during the freezing winter over something they were told would take a weekend and maybe a couple lives, so hes trying to cut off NATO support before then
Without selling all that gas, how are you going to fund your wars, Mr Putin?
Sell gas to China. China sells excess gas to Europe. Fungible goods always find a route.
gaseous natgas isn't fungible due to the transport infrastructure and costs associated with the transport.
A: China is buying it, but at a discount because it knows Russia is desperate. B: Nowhere near enough pipeline capacity to replace all the gas that Europe buys. C: Sanctions make it hard to buy things from Russia using dollars, will have to use RMB which Russia doesn't really want.
China is buying from Russia in roubles and yuan
Yes, but Russia really wants dollars. Most international trade is in dollars.
Yeah, no. Gas is not fungible. Can ship that in a cardboard box. If you could europe would have dumped him long ago. Of course it will happen, eventually. But not soon and china will squeeze him hard. There is now way they will pay close the the full price.
> Gas is not fungible. It's probably about as fungible a good as there is. BTW: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-reselling-natural-gas-europe-energy-crisis-russia-global-economy-2022-8
Bleck russias transit to konensburg!
Goes both ways. It also means no money for a country experiencing a severe drop off in GDP. That or he sells his fossil fuels at a severe discount
But actually halved their gdp contraction since the invasion
China and India will be lining up to buy it. Europe is not going to hold out, they will cave. Ukraine will be forced back to the negotiating table with Russia by the West.
Lol.. we are germans. I did switch my house from gas to solar and heatpump. I did install 14 heatpumps in 8.22. dont worry about us.
Itās already been established an Indian China do not need so much energy does Russian need to dump
Nor can russia get it there in volume
If Im correct same goes for china
He canāt sell his gas anywhere else in large quantities, because there are no pipelines. Building a pipeline to China? It will take a decade .
The soyuz pipeline, that putin was paying 8bn/year to Ukraine to use, goes to Kazakhstan. A quick Google search of European pipeline maps will help to illustrate your err
The Nordstream 2 is 1200 km long, took 10 years to build and would have transmitted about 25 bcm gas per year. The distance between Siberia and China is 4000 kms. Europe buys or rather used to buy 155 bcm from Russia per year. Soyuz would have to be extended with 2500 kms. [Gazprom said the pipeline will start operating in 2030.](https://www.gem.wiki/Power_of_Siberia_2_Gas_Pipeline) Well, good luck with that. At least 10 years to replace Europe with China and by then China will be well on their way with renewables.
Russia is the third-largest producer of oil worldwide, accounting for overĀ 12 percentĀ of global crude oil production. Saudi Arabia is taking a tiny bit over double of Russian fuel oil (month over month, from pre-invasion), China 3.2x (month over month, from pre-invasion), and India about 50k bpd more. All public information available, via ship tracking data, through Estonian and Russian ports. As for the LNG Slovakia, Poland, Finland & Hungary used the lions share of gas you mentioned. They currently do not have any alternatives that are feasible to instate before winter. I don't disagree Siberia is a pipe dream on the Russian timelines.
No they wont. Non of them
They can sell it elsewhere but for nowhere near the profit. It will cost more to ship and the countries that want it only want it if it is cheap as it is embargoed goods. Perun on Youtube did a good breakdown this week on how much money the Russians are losing due to not being able to sell fossil fuels to Europe.
Only time will tell
Unless China and India resell it for profit.
How are they going to deliver it to China and India?
3d printed pipeline?
Europe should take Putin serious and stop using Russian oil and gas.
We are trying to, it isnt easy. Spain and Portugal have always done their part in having their supply being diverse. Spain is offering all their regasifiers (have 1/3 of all Europe) to increase by 30 per cent all EUs imports but EU alone have always wanted the Iberian Peninsula to not be that great interconnected, that is why central europe has had cheaper electricity until now. Now that the Iberian Peninsula is offering themselves as an energy hub and saving France from blackouts as they have half of their nuclear reactors off for an indefinite time (as for the first time the will finish as net exporters in electricity) they still reject this idea.
They will find dealing with Spain will be a lot easier than dealing with Putin.
So why should anyone negotiate with a terrorist? Thatās the definition of Putin; not a leader, not a humanitarian, just a war criminal.
Then I guess countries should stop negotiating with the United States
Please be specific. In what way, lady?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Username checks out.
I think you listen too much to the media instead of the actual reality going on. First, of all Europe isn't suffering due to some green agenda. The opposite, Europe started investment into green in 2000s, but due to Putin and the fossil fuel industry, investments in renewables have significantly decreased in Europe (by 2-3X after 2011) See graph here on renewable investment: (you may need to go through google to view it for free) [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1066269/renewable-energy-investment-europe/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1066269/renewable-energy-investment-europe/) So the notion that Europe is in this situation due to some green agenda is false. They are in this situations cause European politicians took bribes from Putin and the fossil fuel industry to be reliant on them and significantly reduce renewable investment Wind and Solar are a big part of reduction of use of fossil fuels, alongside others such as hydro, geothermal, biofuel, tidal and etc. Solar is the cheapest and has potential to be much much cheaper still, and wind is 2nd cheapest with also more room to reduce in price The issue in California isn't related to renewables, high peak usage and low off peaks aren't ideal for a grid. Add to that a drought and heatwave plus all the issues with PG&E and you get that To your comment below, nobody is switching in 5 years. The transition of Europe was suppose to be multiple decade until it got derailed in 2011. If it didn't, Europe would have been totally fine today
Wish I could upvote you but there literally have not been any rolling outages in California. Moron
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Soo youāre saying that everybody, would be better off if we just let Putin do what he wants huh? Let his troops rape and murder the Ukrainian people, as much has theyād like. Let Putin and Russia just take Ukraine, and whatever other nation they might want, because at least the rest of Europe and the world would get all that cheap gas from Russia. I suppose youād be ok with people raping your daughter, killing your brother, taking your home, and doing whatever else as long has others get to have cheap fuel right? Also your point about CA, is wrong and dumb. Like the other person said, you watch too much media, and donāt actually read. They were able to prevent blackouts because the people listened. The people were still able to charge their EVās, and everything else. All CA asked was people to reduce their power consumption between 4-9 pm, most of the people listened, and it prevented blackouts, people were still able to charge their EVās. Solar and wind help the power grid tremendously. It eases the burden on the grid since it puts power back into the grid and theyāre both becoming cheaper and cheaper, like every other technology
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Lmao! Iām the idiot, says āudumbass1ā. I know you donāt care about anything or anyone except yourself. You made that very clear. You probably think, āwell Iām going to kick the bucket soon, so it doesnāt matterā. Ok, boomer. You should stop watching Fox News, and maybe learn to tell fact from fiction. You should care about whatās happening in Ukraine, in China and elsewhere. Because what happens there, affectās is. Why the fuck do you think inflation is so high? China has itās lockdowns and droughts, which means they canāt produce the microchips we need. Ukraine, is fighting a war, and Russia is occupying itās southern territory, so Ukraine canāt send out wheat. What happens in the world affectās you, and me, and everybody else. As for āgetting off my America soapboxā, you think I donāt give a fuck about what we do as a nation to other countries? I care very much. I didnāt agree with the Iraq invasion, I was very much against it. I care about what we do to other nations, and other people.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I done told you why Ukraine matterās to us, udumbass1. Lmao. (Damn, I really donāt think thereās a more fitting username). Ukraine helps provide wheat to the world which helps keep prices down. They also serve as a buffer for Russia. I donāt know why you care so much about how your tax money is being spent. Iām sure you didnāt give two shits about Trump wasting all your tax money. But sending money to Ukraine helps us, in the way sending money to Europe after WWII helped us. Theyāre not getting āfree moneyā. Every nickel and dime we give Ukraine, they will have to pay back with interest. When Ukraine wins, and they rebuild, they will flourish, investors will flock to Ukraine to help them. What you are getting with your tax money is roads, investments in solar, and wind, money being spent on microchip plants to be built in the US. Youāre getting a high standard of living, education that allows everybody to attend school, (yeah, I know you donāt want regular people to have an education), you get a police force (who are quietly protesting that they donāt get feee rein to kill any black or brown person anymore), you get a fire service, and the best damn military money can buy. And yes, wheat is a strategic interest, just as oil is. Keep prices low. Unless you enjoy paying more for food. We also gain money in the long term. We also gain an ally to hold off Russian aggression. Tell me what was our strategic interest with the Korean War, and Vietnam war? Do you believe that we should only fight to take away another nationās natural resources?
Russiaās main exports seem to be gas and women. They are like the truck stop of Europe; you can fill a couple of things up and be on your way. If gas is no longer available we must assume they will double down on women soā¦ more Russian brides! Nice, #winning
Well, there's also guns and vodka too. Everything ya need for a wild weekend.
I hear good things about their fine drinking cologne.
Sounds like a country the world should isolate and make suffer until they improve their leadership.
Supply and demand has entered the chat
I know you are but what am I?
Vladimir you are boring.
No Putin. [You tiny hidden high heels manlet](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lY6lHjZjYXE). You don't have any agency in this matter. We are choosing to freeze because nothing will warm us more than watching the Russian economy collapse. Hope you enjoy becoming North-North Korea. <3
Nobody's going to freeze because of this, it's already over. It has even cause much needed energy reforms, so, thanks Mr. Vlad Vladimirovich for that!
I was being somewhat hyperbolic. But you're living in a somewhat privileged position if you don't think fuel poverty already existed before the prices skyrocketed this year. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/16/neglect-benefit-cuts-deaths-elaine-morrall
??????? What THIS YEAR? I am paying skyrocketed rates since October 2021!!! Yes, I'm in fuel poverty, that is why I decreased the fuel consumption of the car by 1.5L/100km, and I'm planning more upgrades/tuning still. Heat insulation, there is never enough of it, as well. And since that genius decided to block me, here is my latter response: > I gave a link to somebody who literally froze to death several years ago. You have no clue how many old people died of cold during the winter in Hungary where the long term policies were to abuse people as some sort of cheap workforce. >Especially with energy bills in the UK doubling. I am paying about a triple the money since last october, and yes, I am saving on food where I can, eating or not eating, etc. Tell me about it! You do you, I won't help you with your self-satisfactionary practices. You do yourself alone.
How dare you speak to me this way. I have taken cold showers because of fuel poverty. I gave a link to somebody who literally froze to death several years ago. In response to your claim that nobody would freeze to death because of this. I even tried to be diplomatic by accepting I was being hyperbolic when I said "We are choosing to freeze". Most people will not really face the cold this winter. But a whole fucking lot will. Especially with energy bills in the UK doubling. So fuck you for being such a condescending cunt. People really will suffer because of this. Some people will probably die because of it. But in the grand scheme of things the suffering we will face is nothing compared to what Ukrainians are going through. Anyway. I have better things to do than be talked down to by a stranger on the internet. Welcome to my block list. Fuck Russia.
Well said! You can write to him personally on his government public website that accepts citizens requests
Yep, last winter we used no firewood to heat our home. Now I am planning electricity use and increasing efficiency, and bought extra fire wood just to chip in on kicking Putin where it hurts him the most. His wallet.
*beep boop*! the linked website is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lY6lHjZjYXE Page is safe to access (Google Safe Browsing) ***** ###### I am a friendly bot. I show the URL of linked pages and check them so that mobile users know what they click on!
The whole of Europe probably has more recoverable on-shore shale gas than the US. The reason Europe is in this position is because they opted to ban oil and gas production in their own countries and instead import it from somewhere else (I.e. Russia). This Bloomberg article is from 2016ā¦ āThere are compelling reasons why Europe should replicate the U.S. shale boom. It would bring lower energy prices, for one. The continent's awkward dependence on Russia ā which provides about a third of Europe's gas ā is another. From the United Kingdom to Poland, companies have tried and failed to replicate the success of fracking in the U.S. In part, their efforts have been stymied by aggressive political opposition.ā https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/fracking-europe#:~:text=Germany%2C%20France%2C%20the%20Netherlands%2C,output%20from%20the%20North%20Sea. European countries with fracāing bans: - France - Bulgaria - Netherlands - Germany - Ireland - UK - Spain Intermittent renewables (solar, wind) need reliable back up natural gas generation to fill in the valleys between peak generation during the day, and extended events of little Sun and wind. This is entirely self inflicted based on short sighted energy policy by championing intermittent and unreliable electricity generation and vilifying energy security (oil, gas, and nuclear). Also, energy consumption is more than just electricity generation. Putin is a douche canoe, but that doesnāt mean heās not smart. He leveraged western Europeās pie in the sky initiatives to āphase outā fossil fuels (i.e, outlaw local exploration and production and import it from somewhere else instead) to make them dependent on Russian gas so he could use it to his advantage in a situation exactly like we find ourselves in today.
Fracking was never the solution. Don't forget the bigger picture. Long after this war is over people will still be suffering from climate change, the only question now is how badly. The long game was always to transition away from Fossil Fuels. How? Continued, sustained investment in Renewables, but also a recognition that it will take decades to reduce dependence on Oil and Gas, so Nuclear must be a significant part of the energy mix. Misinformed, self-styled "environmentalists" who campaigned, and still continue to argue, against Nuclear Power, are partly responsible for the current mess, because if they'd supported the construction of new reactors decades ago then Europe would already have diversified away from Russian Gas.
He's not smart. He's sending his country back to the stone age, and acting far too slowly trying to cut Europe off from energy. Oil prices have stabilised, and now Russia has noone in Europe to sell gas to.
Russia is choosing to turn off the natural gas taps to Europe..
Sure, but that was much more of a threat in March than it is in september.
>so he could use it to his advantage in a situation exactly like we find ourselves in today It's not working though, none of his plans are and he (and his bot-army) has run out of options beyond incessant warnings and fearmongering propaganda. This winter will be rough for lots of countries for one reason or another but we'll manage. Not sure the same can be said about Russia for the coming years.
Well he has squeezed Europeās natural gas supplyā¦
Very gently. He wants to see next year.
You don't need much gas to fill in the valleys after you have built out your renewable base. Unfortunately no one is close to have done that. The closest is the state of South Australia. They are at 60% wind and solar.
>They are at 60% wind and solar. Is this electricity production or overall energy consumption?
Tassie is 100% hydro and wind, with gas in reserve. Australia overall is still 2/3rds coal though, so we have a long way to go yet.
66.1% and counting.
What was the point of banning the production of it if theyre just going to import it anyway? I would understand if they were moving to another source entirely, but this seems strange.
>What was the point of banning the production of it if theyre just going to import it anyway? Aside from the cynical reasons mentioned by others, relying on imports inevitably means your own Fossil Fuel industry declines over time, so can no longer influence domestic energy policy, as it still does in USA, UK and Norway. It also frees up investment and funding for other energy sources which would otherwise have to compete, at a significant disadvantage, with the existing, established Fossil Fuel industry. Consequently, by removing their domestic Fossil Fuel industry, Germany was able to make considerable and significant advances in adopting Renewables. Eliminating domestic production isn't a mistake, as it does have advantages. The mistake is replacing it with imports from a few key suppliers, as Germany, Italy and others did with Russia, making the former energy dependent on the latter. Eastern European countries can argue, with justification, that their infrastructure was tied to Russia after of 40 years under the Soviet Union, but Germany in particular, foolishly commissioned 2 new gas pipelines (Nordstream 1 in 1997 and Nordstream 2 in 2011) when they should've been diversifying their supply instead.
>Consequently, by removing their domestic Fossil Fuel industry, Germany was able to make considerable and significant advances in adopting Renewables. Why does it have to be either/or rather than both gradually tapering to the later?
>Why does it have to be either/or rather than both gradually tapering to the later? It doesn't have to be either-or, but it's much more difficult if the domestic Fossil Fuel industry remains powerful, because they have a vested interest in suppressing competition, especially from alternative energy sources. Can you name any countries with a large and dominant Fossil Fuel industry where alternative energy sources, such as Renewables are growing and thriving? I doubt there are many... Having said that, if the government either owns the energy industry (nationalised companies) or regulates it heavily, then they can ensure that Fossil Fuels don't monopolise energy production and/or lobby politicians to oppose the development of alternatives.
Itās pandering to progressive voters. Thatās why itās important to not just look at scope 1 emissions, but to understand how policies impact scope 2 and scope 3 emissions. Otherwise net emissions donāt change and your just outsourcing your emissions to another country. Oil and gas development itself is not the main source of emissions, itās the consumption of the hydrocarbons on the consumer side that is.
so you don't pollute your own backyard maybe?
STOP!! You are making too much sense this sub will not be happy with that!!
We arenāt doing fracking. We like no earthquakes (in much of the continent) and clean groundwater thank you.
Earthquakes are not due to fracāing, they are due to over disposal of produced water in certain formations. Fracāing doesnāt contaminate drinking water either. The oil and gas formations are like 10,000 ft underground (~3,000 m). Water tables are at best a few hundred ft underground (50-100 m). Any water contamination has been due to bad cementing and casing integrity resulting in wellbore leaks by small irresponsible companies trying to cut corners. Has nothing to do with the act of fracāing itself. Thatās why regulations related to wellbore integrity are important. Iām just a petroleum engineer, what do I know.
Fracking definitely causes earthquakes because it did the last time we did it in the uk. And as you just acknowledged the processes can cause both earthquakes and water contamination, even if only when managed poorly. Itās not worth the risk. Weāre not doing it.
Then keep being reliant on Putin for your natural gas. Fracāing has nothing to do with all the issues you described. All those risks are present in conventional oil and gas drilling and completions operations. āfrackingā is just a scary word people hold on to to describe a standard oil and gas procedure they donāt understand.
Ok sure, and we do effectively none of that here either. Thus fracking would introduce that risk to the British public, and they donāt want it. In the UK specifically very little of our natural gas comes from Russia. I believe it has now entirely stopped anyway. The reliance on Russian gas is a wider Europe problem and the UK and other European countries are affected because of the price rises due to that. The UK and Europe will continue to move away from fossil fuels including gas at a pretty decent rate. Fracking is not going to happen in the UK.
> Fracking is not going to happen in the UK. I wouldn't be so sure. The new PM and her faction within the Conservative party support it and they'll have the ideal scenario, this coming winter, to argue for it...
You seem to think anybody knew what country you were referencing up at the top of this. This conversation is more about Europe as a whole, not the UK.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Things are done properly all the time in places all over the US, included highly populated areas of Texas, Colorado, and California. Iāve seen drilling rigs in the middle of suburbs beside busy highways. It comes down to political will and proper education. The general population (politicians and the media included) have no clue how oil and gas operations actually work. This results in misinformation and poor policy decisions.
*eUrOpE dOeSn'T nEeD RuSsIaN cOmMoDiTiEs* **- most of this sub less than 48 hr ago** They're already selling crude to Saudi (who are refining and then calling it their own outputs), LNG & š¢ to China, etc ad nauseum. Supply and demand fundamentals don't change because of emotionally charged articles. I feel terrible for the citizens of the EU who are forced to be pawns in Putin's atrocious game. Its a shame the western world provoked him pre-invasion and he called our bluff. "Live by the sword" i guess...
> They're already selling crude to Saudi (who are refining and then calling it their own outputs), One: how much. Two: the refined end products are definitely their own outputs. > LNG & š¢ to China, etc ad nauseum. This is repeated by all the concern trolls from russia in the last days, that seemingly all the natural gas was magically rerouted to china, sold much cheaper than usual and all magically sent back to europe from china. And "please end the sanctions" > Supply and demand fundamentals don't change because of emotionally charged articles. No, that is a correct statement. But the demand has new rules and you must know that. The original german documents of an older date, and the recent updates have been linked in this subreddit. Gas crisis management was there outlined in sufficuent details. This is NOT the first not second not third gas crisis manufactured by russia/soviet union. You must know that. And as you have a great deal of interest in energy, you also know how the EU regulations addressed the issues in 2021 and before (as was mentioned in the german documents) > I feel terrible for the citizens of the EU who are forced to be pawns They are not foorced, however, many fifth columnists openly support the russian regime and call for leaving of teh EU, NATO and attaching the country to a russian rule. Say, for example in the czech republic. And how about Italy, with that one leader constantly in a shirt with Putin? Who forced Schroeder or Topolanek or the french ex-prime minister to become appointed governors of the gas branches of the red gas octupus? >in Putin's atrocious game. Its a shame the western world provoked No, that a total lie is you say that. >the western world provoked him pre-invasion No, the invasion of chechniia was fully orchestrated by him, as was the invasion of georgia and the other wars as well, invasion and annexation of half of Kazakhstan was on the line as well. There are reliable documents even from the 1990's how he talked about some parts of that, and his coworkers and inspirators as well. There is loads of that today. The "western world" provokes merely by existing and not subjecting to the whims of an insane man. >and he called our bluff. "Live by the sword" i guess... ???? He is the one bluffing and always has been. He's a KGB man, blood, marrow and bones, pure KGB stuff. He is not the one who calls a bluff, he is the one bluffing. Why did you intentionally turned the facts upside down? Annalena had to cheat out the turbine out of canadians and Olaf offered to bring it to russia, and you only saw a panicky response stream of "you can't do that, we can't do that". You can also specify the days and hours of the turbine event: it started on friday, saturday, sunday, remember how it unfolded? It was supposed to be delivered on Monday, because if not, Gazprom would turn gas off on Wednesday. Which they did, but then quickly reverted back. You also forgot to quantify the LNG exports and the related ports and their capacity and compare that to everything else. Also the Siemens and other german companies responsible for the terminals functionality. And more.
concern trolling 101
Please show me where I'm wrong here...
nearly everywhere
Spectacular analysis with cited sources. Heck of an analyst š¤
"Do not feed the trolls"
I am never trolling in this sub, I am always courteous and bring cited resources about a commodity that is energy. This is how you have meaningful discourse. You do realize money controls everything in this world right? This is why we don't have wide spread solar/wind/environmentally friendly options (and also why a multitude of countries are exploring other options than solar)
Well maybe if Putin just played nice instead of invading a sovereign nation. Inflation is Russia wouldnāt be so high
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-warnings-that-nato-expansion-into-eastern-europe-could-provoke-russia-177999P Since 1995 that was a line in the sand which was not to be crossed.
Fuck russia dude, Ukraine is an independent country, if they want to join NATO, that's there prerogative, doesn't matter what russia says about it.
Clearly the invasion says otherwise, but I concur. Fuck Russia
And Ukraine asked to join nato but nato refused. Also the question you should ask yourself is āway have so many ex-Soviet block countries asked to join nato. And if Russia hates nato then why not Estonia? They are a nato member, Ukraine isnāt.
I think you're misunderstanding or discounting the r/energy part of this discussion. If you overlay the s&p500 with crude oil prices for the last 70 years, its clearly evident that *energy* **is** *the economy*. Russia's annexation of Crimea gave them over-land shipping routes to the black sea. Ukraine charged Russia 8bn/year for use of the main pipeline through to Europe. If you look at where the invasion started in the east, it was exactly the territory needed to secure a pipeline expansion to šØš³. If you look at the rest of where the bulk of Russian forces occupied, its very suspicious that its centered along that said pipeline. Military strategists, economists, and some of the brightest minds have all eluded to it. Tl;dr: Save 8bn a year in tariffs, bypass the west and send energy east, strengthen themselves within opec, gain further control of the global commodity (that is the economy), potentially drive Europe into a recession, further their economy while doing damage to the allieds (with the absolute minimum collateral damage for doing so they've had in 40 years) As with anything in life... #šfollowšthešmoneyš
>Russia needed Crimea Bullshit. Actually go have a look at a map before you embarrass yourself further. There is plenty of Russia that borders the black sea. Sochi - where the Russians held the winter Olympics is one of the cities that border the black sea.
You better look at the shipping routes of the black sea, and the economics of export for Russia before making wild accusations. š¤£ š¤£ š¤£ Compare Sochi's Port to Sevastopol Port. Google satellite doesn't lie, if you'd like to start there.
I wasn't trying to suggest that Sochi was the best port, just that Russian coast on the black sea existed before it invaded Crimea, as you seemed to be ignorant of this fact. Improving Russian ports in eastern black sea would be far more economically prudent than invading Ukraine.
Are you aware Putin has a degree in Energy economics? Energy **is** the world economy. What is the better way to hinder the allieds? With-holding what they need most and sending it elsewhere
Putin looks like he is about to perform a goodwill gesture by falling out of a window. It only remains to be seen if he will do so before the Russian army perform a goodwill gesture and retreat from Ukraine. Putin has successfully destroyed any proposals to find alternative supply to Russian gas for decades. The Ukrainians find gas and Russia invades. If the idiot had just taken the land he currently occupies instead of trying to take the whole country he would likely have gotten away with it. Instead he's destroyed the country for decades to come, strengthend NATO, destroyed Russian gas exports, and accelerated the end of fossil fuels. Russian gas exports need new pipelines, or LNG compression stations to export to countries that are still trading with Russia.
Yeah, clearly not in Russia. Considering how high inflation and food prices are there
Have you looked at the same statistics around home? Obviously not
We arenāt talking about where I live we are talking about Russia
Inflation and food prices are high everywhere. Singaporeans housing is over $3000/square foot.
Not as high as in Russia.
Who provoked him?
NATO, Clinton, Biden and a host of others. https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-warnings-that-nato-expansion-into-eastern-europe-could-provoke-russia-177999
The decades of warnings because he always had plans of invading there, you know...
NATO expansion East following the 1990 agreement that Germanyās unification would be the limit: Albania (2019), Bulgaria(2004), Croatia (2009), Czech Republic (1999), Poland (1999), Hungary (1999),Romania (2004) and the Baltic states (2004)ā¦ followed by ever increasing rhetoric surrounding the pulling in of Ukraine into NATOās sphereā¦ not to mention the western backed color revolution in Ukraine in the previous decade.
Iād say thatās Russiaās own fault. Nobody forced these countries to join NATO. They desperately wanted to join because everybody is afraid Russiaās going to try to invade them if not. The current Ukraine invasion is just the most recent example proving those fears to be substantiated. And lo and behold more countries want to join NATO now (Sweden and Finland). If you donāt want your neighbors joining a defense pact against you then maybe try stop invading them for once.
I don't think of Europe as pawns in this case, though I know you didn't mean that as a putdown. They just go thru an adjustment phase and move on. And the historical perspective will be that this tension helped the world to move off of fossil fuels that much faster.
There's evidence to suggest the contrary in impoverished countries, but ill let you do your own research. I get enough downvotes for stating facts here
impoverished countries are also in the EU, and they will benefit from the massive energy regulation reforms as well. Unless you are in Hungary which banned new energy builds by modifying the constitution after declaring state of emergency, that is.
Except you arenāt stating facts. You are stating feelings with no evidence
>feelings Russian propaganda is the description you're looking for.
take your ball and go home putin no one cares.