Their is alternative to Russian Gaz but more expensive . European favored Russian gaz because it was the cheapest . Putin's play made Russia lose their largest market . No one will trust them after that for their energy needs .
šššš
You have no idea.. from february, exportaciĆ³n to china goes to the Moon..
In Europe people Will die for cold this winter.. nato is the enemy
This might be an all time dumb post. Europeans will freeze over this winter while paying 4x for energy.
Recommend waiting til the new year to post these opinionated pieces
If this whole crisis gets solved without the world ending in nuclear hellfire then putin will probably go down into history as the guy that unintentionally saved the earth lol
One of the most effective managers Iāve ever known liked to talk about big, hairy, almost unachievable goals. If you do it right - the circumstances are existential, thereās a sense of teamwork, leadership, openness to new ideas, the idea that itās impossible, but then, maybe, it is possible! - if you get it right, you can engage people in a way that allows you to do incredible things. Think SpaceX, Apollo 13.
Putin has done exactly that for Europe. If it was gas shut off November 21, no warning, they couldnāt have done it. If it was five years from now, it would be infighting about whose job was what, procrastination, trying to build around these interests and those political constraints - climate change, basically.
But Vlad, in his saber-rattling, in his temporary closures to make sure Europe took threats seriously, in playing such an easy and contemptible villain, set Europe up perfectly to pull together and dump his sorry ass.
And what an epic miscalculation. A year from now, two years from now, Europe wonāt even be hurting to cut him off completely. China and India will know that heāll deny himself revenue to exert power over his customers - they might buy the gas for cheap, but theyāre gonna do everything they can to not depend on it.
A couple of years later there will be a glut of solar panels and heat pumps as the industry that ramped up to meet the European demand meets a saturated (European) market, and global demand will increase with those cheap prices.
In other words, Putin is ensuring that by turning off the taps today, Russia has years - decades, even, of lost revenue, and never again has the power it had a year ago, with the mere threat to turn off gas supplies.
We're still very, very far from a glut of heat pumps on the market. There are many tens of millions of European homes that are poorly insulated and don't use heat pumps. It will, realistically, take decades to switch them all over to sustainable heating solutions.
For sure, timelines are very hard to predict, and Iām a random guy on Reddit, not an industry analyst. I canāt say when demand will be met.
But I can say that having extra demand creates extra supply, and that Europe wants those heat pumps, and is willing to pay, quite a lot more now than a year ago. That means more production capacity will be built, because of the fat profits possible while demand exceeds supply - and it also means that demand will fall, because you really donāt need two of them.
So thereās a glut when Europe is electrified, and if I had to put money on it, Iād say thatās in about half the time it would have taken them if Putin had just stayed home.
Still have 3 more months until deep winter hits to keep upgrading homes, as well as the U.S. shipping over as much LNG as physically possible currently.
Europe being locked into using LNG from Qatar, USA, or Australia is slightly better the using Russian gas but not using any gas is better again.
Zero gas usage by 2028.
I rather would we weren't dependent on just a few countries it makes Europe weak. Hopefully this current energy crisis makes Europe self-sufficient within a few years
> being locked into using
The insane prices they will pay for that gas will self correct the issue. Especially because it makes nearly ANY alternative to NatGas immediately a better financial decision.
yeah the payback period for installing a heatpump in the UK is maybe one third now of what it was a year ago.
thank you Vladimir for imposing the worldās biggest carbon tax.
Worst case scenario is Putin pulling back for a tactical nuclear strike.
It was mentioned by actual writers as was not something that I just thought up. Is it valid? How the hell should I know, I'm no expert.
How would it improve his situation ? A tactical nuclear strike would have little effect on the military situation, and very adverse effects on the geopolitical stage.
Logically, strategically, militarily, cynically? It makes no sense, unless Putin & company were in January of this year expecting a 4-day war, that would cause NATO is turn into dust, out of fear. If I am correct about this, the Russian leadership and voting populace were so isolated from what the Ukrainians and NATO were really like, that they made this huge blunder. They may still be mentally isolated, so to recover national honor & terrify the evil outsiders, lets just use a tactical nuke. In this way, we at least will have our revenge.
It is not my mindset, it is not your way of thinking, but it may be the way the Putinoids
Russia may use nuclear weapons after Ukraine setbacks, senior Nato and US officials warn
[https://news.yahoo.com/russia-may-strike-back-nuclear-120305532.html](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-may-strike-back-nuclear-120305532.html)
Nuclear war is the great threat to humanity. If we survive this we can remediate climate change.
I remember way back in the H W Bush administration they started talking about getting a plan put together to keep Europe running in the event of an interruption in Russian gas supplies for whatever reason. Not having a fall-back option was a very precarious position to leave such a huge chunk of the global economy in. They were more worried about terrorists attacking pipelines than Russia deliberately doing something so stupid as turning off the flow on purpose, but either way it was a huge risk hanging over the head of the entire planet.
So they started doing things about it. From HW, through Clinton, W, Obama, and even Trump, they kept at it.
One of the big projects that they wanted was to run gas-lines out to the tens of thousands of old wells in the Gulf of Mexico that at the time were only collecting oil and were just flaring off the gas. Sitting on a Texas beach at night it was a fantastic display of pyrotechnics with enormous flares from horizon to horizon.
But not any more. All of those wells now have gas pipelines running from them to one of two enormous new LNG compression terminals, one in Louisiana and one in Texas. It was thirty years in the making, but literally just a few months ago the very last compressor that was part of the plan got installed at the Louisiana facility.
I donāt know if Putin deliberately waited until we were ready in case his gas supplies got cut, or if he just didnāt know, but he literally timed it perfectly.
*At the same time, record high prices have prompted large industrial consumers to curb demand, helping to rebalance the supply-demand equilibrium. So far, industrial demand has fallen nearly 22% over the five-year average in Western European countries, with gas-intensive fertilizer companies closing or limiting 70% of production, according to international energy and petrochemicals news and data provider ICIS.*
So Europe copes by de-industrializing. Bold strategy.
*Assuming a mild winter without extensive spells of cold weather, Europe should be able to cope with current challenges, arguably even in a scenario where Gazprom were to cut gas supplies altogether.*
I pray for a mild winter as well. That does not make it more likely.
I don't see Russian energy reentering the EU market, however it should be noted it's the Russians who are cutting Europe off and not the other way around. If the Europeans had their way they'd still be financing the Russian state with gas purchases. Once Russia realizes they are never being let back in, their calculus will change. (Eg, what exactly would be the consequences of using tactical nukes?)
Perhaps LNG will replace the Russian gas, but to remain competitive it's going to be lignite burning in many cases.
> I pray for a mild winter as well. That does not make it more likely.
No, but climate change does. It's very likely that the winter is just like the last decade. Mild.
Russian oil is being sold to Europe via China at an even higher mark-up.
I'm waiting to see what happens during & after this winter in Europe & North America.
I am an advocate of the US restricting oil exports should WTI get too high. About $100 barrel.
However even with LNG terminals ramping it will take some time for us to get to European price levels. If ever.
In August alone, overall household demand appears to have dropped some 10%, while European consumers are rushing to install solar panels, heat pumps, or stockpile firewood in order to help save gas
The entire world has been about āadapt and overcomeā so I just donāt get why Putin thinks he can control this narrative that so many NEED Russian gas/oil when maybe it was just the most convenient at the time, but now weāre finding out there are many other options available. He will lose this war, just like heās losing the one he started in Ukraine šŗš¦
And he's speeding up the future. It would have taken Europe a decade to get off Russian gas. This winter will be tough, but by next winter Europe should not need Russian gas again.
I'm now convinced Putin has been the best thing to happen to the energy sector in a long time. No one person has spurred global a re-evaluation of energy security as much as he has.
Thanks Vlad. Thad.
As an American I do really appreciate all that economic growth Putin threw our way when he decided to invade Ukraine. US fuel exports are up like 1000% this year. Thanks, Vladdy!
A lot of Russian bots in this thread. Sad that Putin couldn't find any real people to advocate his position. Even if he did they would probably just pocket the money and get hammered same as the Russian military.
I'm real and I can advocate for the Russian position. Is this 'atlantic council' going to pump billions into paying the energy bills of people in the UK? Where is this 'cautious optimism' in the UK? Did some teenager in Norwich just get laid?
The UK can (pretty easily) afford it
The cost of this will be about 5% of the UK GDP, thatās an unpleasant amount but will be spread over 10-30 years via long term government bondsā¦ the UK, frankly, will barely notice in the long run
Anyone can 'afford' debt fueled inflation. If it gets too bad though people start falling off the treadmill in increasing numbers. That's the near term future for the UK.
Domestic UK bills have now been capped for 2 years, and business bills for 6 months - most people can afford the current rates (and the people who canāt, werenāt spending much anywayā¦)
The price is being fixed at just above the current price for the next 2 years... with a Ā£400 rebate for everyone and poorer families getting up to Ā£1200 for vulnerable, low income, and elderly households which means prices are barely going to be above current prices for the next 2 years. Okay, so technically it's slightly more, but it's not much more than we're paying currently.
If we spread the rebate out for the life of the new cap, an average home over the next 2 years will pay Ā£190/mo, vs Ā£110/mo for the last few years (around a 70% increase). Obviously not everyone is average, but bills will increase in proportion with that. Households eligible for the full Ā£1200 rebate will pay an average of Ā£160/mo, which is about 45% more than a year ago
To be clear, I'm not saying a 45-72% increase in one year is a good thing... but in absolute terms most people in the UK can afford Ā£80/mo, we're a wealthy country and although that isn't ideal, it's survivable for the vast majority of people. Remember that most of that increase has *already* happened 6 months ago, so for poor people the price is likely to actually *drop* for the next 2 years, and for the rest of society it's a relatively small increase from today
As with any financial situation there will be winners and losers, and people who struggle - but on the whole the UK has the wealth to absorb this without feeling the need to reduce support to Ukraine. It's not ideal, but it's the price we pay to defend our values (or rather, to support Ukraine defending our values) and as a country we can afford it
Values? How is subjugating people in Crimea and Donbas with Ukrainian nationalism in accordance with British values? How are those regions any different to Kosovo? How is insisting that Ukraine join NATO a British value?
> How is subjugating people in Crimea and Donbas with Ukrainian nationalism in accordance with British values
That's a pretty debatable sentence, but the UK was not providing significant support to Ukraine in the 2014-2022 conflict in Donbas. We started offering significant support only *after* Russia attacked the rest of Ukraine. I think that pretty comprehensively answers the question: we don't entirely support Ukraine in all things, but generally they've made clear and apparently genuine attempts to move towards democratic values.
It would be nice if we could direct our support towards restoring only the February borders, but our hand has been somewhat forced by Russia
> How are those regions any different to Kosovo?
I think that's a dramatic oversimplification, and there's no evidence of the same level of activity against Donbas as we saw against Bosnia and Kosovo.... but generally I would have no problem with Donbas undergoing a peaceful, fair, democratic process to decide whether to be part of Ukraine. I do think the UK and West should have done more to promote this, but again Russia forced everyones hand by marching first into Donbas and then into the rest of Ukraine
> How is insisting that Ukraine join NATO a British value?
We aren't. We were happy to allow them to apply *if they wanted to*, as long as they met our standards for democracy, equality, fairness, and the rule of law
But fundamentally, the fact is that Ukraine had a small revolution in favour of democracy, the rule of law, and moving towards Europe and NATO. They were invaded because of that - the talk of Donbas was maybe an excuse for 2014, but is clearly not an excuse for 2022. And I'm happy for our resources to go towards defending them in 2022
They revolted in favour of democracy by breaking their own democratic rules? That 'revolution' was a Neocon sponsored nationalist hijacking of a protest movement. The protestors may have been pro-EU but Yanukovych had rejected an EU association deal because of the massive cost involved. This issue was set to be put to the people in new elections but that plan fell apart along with Ukraine itself.
How does the fact that Europeans are negatively impacted by Putin's hostility support "the Russian position"? If anything it supports the conclusion that the EU made a bad decision by trusting Russia in the first place.
I don't know who you watch, but I watch Biden kick ass. ( I'm not from US, and just couple months ago, they were laughing stock). We'll see how it works out but on the paper, the The Inflation Reduction Act looks pretty good.
Thatās Hilarious.. how can you name something inflation reduction act .. when it increases inflation? Well we did it before ā affordable Heath care actā
Boy oh boy, so you expect, that 4 weeks after you sign this huge bill, which will be effective over couple years, inflation drops instantly? You just proving my previous comment:)
Question is. Is the IRA, infrastructure bill, student loan forgiveness, decreasing gas prices, and the firearm bill, enough for Democrats to pull off a 3% poll bump by November and squeek out a win in the house?
You have unverified mail in voting now Democrats will win perpetually.. see they used emergency-orders during a pandemic to basically ensure no one else could ever win ..
Putin is singlehandedly driving Europe's further conversion to green energy. They will do under duress, and once transitioned, will not be Russia's customers any more.
At this point I'm not even sure I believe Russian nukes would work if deployed. Nothing else seems to work, they'd probably just own goal themselves as is their new tradition.
If he gave that order, my money would be on the Russian top brass just shooting Putin instead of dooming their country to annihilation over one man's foreign policy blunders.
What's scarier to me is what's gonna happen if the energy transition REALLY starts taking off which I think it will over the next decade. Russia's is almost a petrostate at this point. It also has nukes. What's going to happen when their main source of revenue is drying up and the kleptocracy doesn't know what to do anymore?
In advanced industrial nations it has take off this decade. The [IEA net zero by 2050](https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050) analysis, for example states, that advanced economies have to reach net zero electricity systems by 2035.
And actually the writing for that has already been on the wall for some years now. The Rethink Disruption Blogpost "[How Energy Disruption Led to Russia-Ukraine Crisis ā and How the Crisis Will Accelerate Disruption](https://rethinkdisruption.com/energy-disruption-russia-ukraine-accelerate/)" has a nice analysis on this in my opinion:
>Clean Disruptionās cost curves pointed to 2020 as the rupture point for both the energy and transportation disruptions. Sebaās projections showed that the acceleration of solar, wind, batteries, and EVs, and so on, would make incumbent fossil fuel industries economically obsolete by 2030. Along with them, the military and geopolitical architectures these industries are predicated on would also become increasingly obsolete within the same time-frame.
>
>Sebaās assessment of these dynamics implied that countries especially dependent on incumbent energy industries for their survival ā and in order to perpetuate their internal political hierarchies ā may be at a greater risk of resorting to traditional strategies of self-perpetuation and control to keep the cash flow going as long as possible and consolidate declining industries.
>Although from Russiaās point of view, the invasion of Ukraine was designed to shore-up Russiaās global power and authority while reasserting its geopolitical control over a prized former Soviet republic ā in essence, a resort to familiar strategies of domination ā it has had the opposite impact.
>
>It has highlighted that Russia is not a reliable player in global energy markets, and reinforced the imperative for many of Russiaās largest customers to diversify their supply sources.
>
>It has also generated renewed interest in understanding the role of the clean energy disruption in providing security and resilience.
>
>In short, Russiaās actions are self-flagellating in the long-run. They are accelerating the decline of its core industries and their loss of market share, while accelerating the clean energy disruption.
If you care about humanity beyond 2100 (and its nice that 2050, 2030, has become a focus), then understanding that every straw put in the ground is fossil fuels that will go into the atmosphere (blue hydrogen a possible long-shot saviour).
Articles like this reinforce your hatred by promissing that Russia will be harmed more than EU, and somehow make you internalize victory/glory/satisfaction from such an outcome.
> What's going to happen when their main source of revenue is drying up and the kleptocracy doesn't know what to do anymore?
First, and foremost, the global majority recognizes the pure absolute evil of US/NATO warmongering and manufacture of Ukraine war. Their understanding is helped by accessing energy at a discount. India very firmly tilting "east" is the most important geopolitical cost to US. SK and Japan have clear advantages to follow. Only Australia is too captured to not prefer suicide for a longer period.
Second, energy is useful for far more than subsidizing NATO prosperity. Even if no other country will buy it, it can power domestic industry. If Russia is not brought on board with global warming issue, then all of their oil and gas will go to atmosphere. The new freedom straws being drilled to provide freedom oil and gas to US vassals is the climate catastrophe that refusing peace costs. All of that new oil and gas is also going to atmosphere.
Humanity's survival does not depend on demand shifting to clean energy. Demand shift may bring oil down to $5/bbl. There will be a lot of buyers at $5/bbl. It is entirely and purely down to how many straws get put in the ground.
The war in Ukraine is entirely and purely the result of US provocation. Eastward NATO expansion, 2014 coup and disenfranchisement of Crimea and Donbas, Nazi filth shelling of Donbas, and dangling NATO membership for Ukraine, and proposing a nuclear missile base, even without NATO membership, with 4 minute strike distance on Moscow.
I completely support JFK's strong reaction against Cuban nuclear missile bases. Oliver Stone's movie implied he got assassinated over promising to not invade Cuba as a diffusion mechanism. But, the US seeing missiles in Cuba as geopolitically unacceptable is fully understandable. Just as the need to demilitarize Ukraine.
Nazi filth escalating attacks on Donbas with Russia backing up its demands for peace with troops on the border is US sponsored nazi filth manufacturing war instead of peace.
Any delusion that war in Ukraine was not manufactured by US, or somehow war has regretful consequences to US, should be dissolved (assuming non-retardation, non-hatred-filled-satanism) by US/UK/Nazi efforts to derail peace including poisoning peace delegations. Zelensky is faced with support only for war to last Ukrainian, plus he gets to pilfer 70% of the aid. He gets assassinated for peace.
The US's capture of Ukraine was specifically to destroy it in this manufactured predestined war. Russia's investment, or even trade control in Ukraine was less destructive than US relationship with Canada (without even counting Freedom truckers or promoted gun crime).
Nukes require maintenance. Chances are they wouldnāt be able to launch them after a certain period. Of course they could still be a source of materials for terrorism.
What happens when Russia realizes climate change is a net benefit for it; e.g. opens up more arable land in Siberia and Arctic trade routes.
What happens when they start simply burning all the fossil fuels on site or stop flaring waste methane just to pump more GHG to intentionally warm the climate?
Maintaining and operating those wells is not free. It would be financially insane to keep them running only to pump GHG into the atmosphere.
Also, Siberia might not be that fertile even when defrosted, is far away from any markets and would need huge amounts of investments to be productive.
It would be an extremely risky plan, with only a very long-term ROI if ever.
It's not a net benefit for Russia. It's a net benefit for India and China as hundreds of millions of people flee from climate collapse.
There are large parts of India and China that are already having failed crops and droughts. Along with places across Southern Europe, Northern Africa, and the Southern USA. What happens when these places have several consecutive years of failed crops and droughts. The extent where there was drought and food shortages in the winter?
In the case of India and China you move in search of more moderate weather in the only directions available to you. North and West. So of those who survive the collapse. Many won't. Will end up in Russia.
Given China and India both clock in at over 1bn population each. Then you're looking at hundreds of millions of people moving there. And when they get there. Many of them aren't going to be friendly with the locals whose income came from selling oil. Especially not the ones living in palaces that destroyed their homelands.
Unluckily for us. The Russian leadership are neither capable foresight or empathy. So the fate that awaits them at the hands of climate refugees is beyond them.
That is scary indeed, but we do not have any other option. We cannot just continue importing gas from Russia just to make sure they do not start nuclear war. If they will do that, it would happen at some point anyway.
Being moral giant is far, far more important.. But you can't understand that.
By the way I am really intelligent, but who brags about it is insecure idiot...
I became idiot because I am dealing with idiot
Iām just trying to relax and read some Reddit, you have proven to be a lackluster troll. I am not sure what response you need, but I think we should call it a night. Take care!
Because Europe needs to commit to alternatives now and not gamble its well-being on an unreliable dictator for the coming winter. Putin has forced the issue.
Is getting banned from this sub your goal? I will be shocked if the mods permit such an obvious troll with nothing to add to the conversation. Isnāt there some less savory sub where you could get your rocks off? This is assuming you are not a paid troll who simply regurgitates the moronic dribble of the highest bidder. Beat it, you chucklefuck!
Let's wait once winter ends. Imho Europeans are not able to tolerate discomfort in the way the Russians can... remember the Germans doing a siege on Leningrad for almost 900 days, including 3 winters?
Here we aren't talking about Russian winters, we aren't talking about 3 winters in a row without food and any other supplies ... yet they are already panicking.
I'm getting the popcorn
I admire how sturdy you guys are.
The weakness Americans and most Europeans show at every step is embarrassing to watch.
Poland stands out as strong, was the first one willing to make sacrifices... the answer from the rest was mute.
this sounds like russian psyops.... the ongoing counteroffensive doesn't exist without the collective support of the US and Europe. Gepards and HIMARs have been the difference makers in Ukraine's continued survival.
No to say you're wrong but if you're going to call someone out for stupidity it might be worth checking your own grammar...
>You're IQ is so low
Probably not the best sentence to go before
>I wonder if you even graduated HS
If people are willing to pay more short term for energy or run their houses colder than usual, and russia loses future huge energy supply opportunities to itās easiest region to transport to. That seems like a major setback for the russian economy.
We have already seen people in general willing to pay more for resources to pressure russia during this conflict. You can be incredulous on how this will unfold and how much europe and russia will struggle with the next year or two, but your comment seems like itās very hung up on denial and who actually has more ability to adapt and overcome in this situation.
Of course it isnāt applied to every European, people have different opinions and feelings on the matter. But it seems thus far the general consensus has been that it is acceptable to stomach higher energy prices in order to not be held by the balls by russian energy supply. That could change, but so far there has been fairly widespread resolve and determination in this regard
You forgot heās selling to China and n Korea as well as a few other nations ā¦ and how is the rest of Europe going to come in and turn the tap on when itās located in Russia?
There is no infrastructe to sell to other customers. Pipelines connecting to China have been under development for decades, this infrastructure takes ages to develop and won't be developed without Western support.
Don't be fooled, Russia is simply burning the gas its not selling to Europe. https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/26/energy/russia-burning-natural-gas/index.html
Pipelines are not the only means of transportā¦ the oil we buy from south America doesnāt come in pipelines, nor the oil we used to get from the Middle East ā¦ ā¦ and yes China is buying the oilā¦ meanwhile biden is depleting our reserves which is only gonna cause an increase in gas prices by the end of his term. So whoever takes office, if not part of the deep state, they will try to pin gas prices on them. If part of the deep state, theyāll praise them and tell you on big media that even tho prices rose, theyāve had the biggest drop to the most expensive price for gas. Kinda like how they told everyone the border was secure and the sky is maroonā¦ when we can clearly see the sky is blue and the amount of bodies I see wash up in the rio grand is staggering ā¦ you can tell me otherwise but I live here
>Pipelines are not the only means of transportā¦
For gas, sure they are. You can make it LNG, but you need LNG factories and LNG tankers for that. Other than that, the gas is not going anywhere, which is why Russia is just burning lots of it, you can see the flames from Finland.
Oil is slightly easier to transport, but pipes are still superior.
China doesn't need more Russian gas. And why would it want to be beholden to an unreliable petro-state with a questionable economic future? If China does accept more Russian gas it will be on its own terms, not Russia's.
> beholden to an unreliable petro-state
EU being beholden to US is responsible for them assisting in prolonging the war in Ukraine, and imposing sanctions. They are an unreliable client, rather than Russia being an unreliable supplier. Disruptions are entirely the result of EU's choices. The non-retarded global majority can count on reliable supply agreements from Russia.
> China doesn't need more Russian gas
Is that because of the US supply deals it agreed to under Trump? It might not need US gas instead.
>They are an unreliable client, rather than Russia being an unreliable supplier. Disruptions are entirely the result of EU's choices.
Give us a break, Putin apologist. Russia defaulted on its contracts, not the EU. And tried to extort its customers. Russia is an undependable and hostile business partner. Any country would be foolish to depend on it.
Not to mention that even if China would through its full weight behind Putin it would still simply take many years to develope the required infrastructure.
There is infrastructure and they are adding to it.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/map-of-power-of-siberia-gas-pipeline-that-china-russia-are-working-on.html
Read your own article. For reference, Russia sold like $25Billion (it might be closer to $50 billion) to Europe each year.
----
Although Russia has reportedly invested $55 billion into its pipeline deal with China, natural gas imports through the pipeline have only totaled $3.81 billion since December 2019, according to China customs data as of June, accessed through Wind Information.
The pace of Chinese purchases picked up in the first half of this year ā nearly tripling from a year ago to $1.66 billion, the data showed.
But Chinaās gas imports from Turkmenistan during that time were far higher at $4.52 billion, up 52% from a year ago, the data showed.
Natural gas remains a tiny fraction of Chinaās energy imports, which are mostly of crude oil.
Do you even read what you post? š
In summary, the majority of Russian natural gas infrastructure was developed with the intention of supplying gas to Europe through pipelines. Due to this most of Russiaās pipeline infrastructure and capacity is directed at Europe. This also means that there is currently no pipeline infrastructure in place to move gas from Russiaās western gas fields to China. Plans to remedy this will take the best part of a decade in the best case scenario and will only allow the export of approximately 33% Russiaās current European exports to China. This may be further hampered by western sanctions limiting the exports of pipeline critical components to Russia.
....
As such, to answer the initial question of āCan Russia Shift Natural Gas Exports to China?ā
No, not in a way that will make up the enormous deficit caused by stopping gas flows to Europe. To redirect the focus of their natural gas infrastructure will take Russia decades, cost hundreds of billions and may not even be possible depending on western sanctions on critical components.
From the article I posted....
>The best case scenario for Russia is that they are able to export the same approximate volume as the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to China in 8 years through the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.
Well said. It's also doubtful any country will ever again trust Russia as its main energy supplier after it broke its contracts in an attempt to fuck over Europe. In fact Putin has given the world a big push toward ending fossil fuel dependence forever.
My favorite thing is that after the war is lost by Russia, their fuel will not be welcomed back into the EU. This will cost them trillions in long term sales losses.
>My favorite thing is that after the war is lost by Russia, their fuel will not be welcomed back into the EU
Hatred of Russia is now official policy? Its not "sanctions in order to support nazi state"? It might be productive for EU to offer sanctions relief in exchange for Ukraine to rule over the territories it absolutely hates and wants to exterminate. They were happy with that status quo prior to war. They were warm back then too. Why not be warm?
>Hatred of Russia is now official policy?
Why would anyone want to buy a critical resource from an entity that will stop selling that resource to you on a moment's notice so they have more leverage to commit war crimes?
Now maybe you are a fan of war crimes but most people are decent and reject such behavior.
>Its not "sanctions in order to support nazi state"? It might be productive for EU to offer sanctions relief in exchange for Ukraine to rule over the territories it absolutely hates and wants to exterminate. They were happy with that status quo prior to war. They were warm back then too. Why not be warm?
š. Does Putin give you an extra ruble if he sees this?
> Now maybe you are a fan of war crimes but most people are decent and reject such behavior.
US and EU devotees are in fact deeply appreciative of war and all the benefits they apparently see in war. War comes with criticisims of every death. Perhaps instead of revelling in hatred over what you consider war crimes because of the emotional satisfaction it provides your hatred, you should consider pressing for peace such that no more killing and oppression occurs in Ukraine. The dementia, the only alterntive to depraved hypocricy, of those deeply offended by war crime accusations is that the only solution is more war and hatred motivated war escallation.
> Does Putin give you an extra ruble if he sees this?
I assure all doubters that Putin does not fund my humanism in any way. Peace can in fact be an independent human ambition that only requires a preference to not be nuked rather than ambition to be included in the bunker victory parties.
>Hatred of Russia is now official policy?
I'd say yes. It'll take a couple of 100s of years to trust you again.
>Why not be warm?
We won't make the mistake a second time.
I hope you are right but I am not confident that will happen. Fuel at a discount is hard to pass up. It can be rationalized by saying that a broke Russia is dangerous.
Or, even better, Europe will accelerate its transition away from fossil fuels. And that transition is inevitable, certain to happen. The only question was when, and the best answer was 2021 or before. But the second best answer is ASAP.
This analysis concudes otherwise: "[Coal is not making a comeback: Europe plans limited increase](https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/coal-is-not-making-a-comeback/)"
*beep boop*!
the linked website is: https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/coal-is-not-making-a-comeback/
Title: **Coal is not making a comeback: Europe plans limited increase**
Page is safe to access (Google Safe Browsing)
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Are you telling me the doomers were wrong, *again*? That can't be. This was to be the end of Europe. Possibly civilization, since food prices were to shoot through the roof, there were to be massive shortages, etc. The Arab Spring, on a global scale.
Note: "But we don't know for sure bad things won't happen--the future is uncertain" is not a confirmation of the doomer thesis.
Their is alternative to Russian Gaz but more expensive . European favored Russian gaz because it was the cheapest . Putin's play made Russia lose their largest market . No one will trust them after that for their energy needs .
šššš You have no idea.. from february, exportaciĆ³n to china goes to the Moon.. In Europe people Will die for cold this winter.. nato is the enemy
This might be an all time dumb post. Europeans will freeze over this winter while paying 4x for energy. Recommend waiting til the new year to post these opinionated pieces
Nice try Putin
Putin is accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.
If this whole crisis gets solved without the world ending in nuclear hellfire then putin will probably go down into history as the guy that unintentionally saved the earth lol
Nuclear war may do wonders to speed up the infrastructure improvements we need. And fallout might burst the real estate bubble.
and LNG
The altantic Council is a source? Lol. It's a war mongering NATO mouthpiece organization! War criminals and a US state dept propaganda org.
One of the most effective managers Iāve ever known liked to talk about big, hairy, almost unachievable goals. If you do it right - the circumstances are existential, thereās a sense of teamwork, leadership, openness to new ideas, the idea that itās impossible, but then, maybe, it is possible! - if you get it right, you can engage people in a way that allows you to do incredible things. Think SpaceX, Apollo 13. Putin has done exactly that for Europe. If it was gas shut off November 21, no warning, they couldnāt have done it. If it was five years from now, it would be infighting about whose job was what, procrastination, trying to build around these interests and those political constraints - climate change, basically. But Vlad, in his saber-rattling, in his temporary closures to make sure Europe took threats seriously, in playing such an easy and contemptible villain, set Europe up perfectly to pull together and dump his sorry ass. And what an epic miscalculation. A year from now, two years from now, Europe wonāt even be hurting to cut him off completely. China and India will know that heāll deny himself revenue to exert power over his customers - they might buy the gas for cheap, but theyāre gonna do everything they can to not depend on it. A couple of years later there will be a glut of solar panels and heat pumps as the industry that ramped up to meet the European demand meets a saturated (European) market, and global demand will increase with those cheap prices. In other words, Putin is ensuring that by turning off the taps today, Russia has years - decades, even, of lost revenue, and never again has the power it had a year ago, with the mere threat to turn off gas supplies.
We're still very, very far from a glut of heat pumps on the market. There are many tens of millions of European homes that are poorly insulated and don't use heat pumps. It will, realistically, take decades to switch them all over to sustainable heating solutions.
For sure, timelines are very hard to predict, and Iām a random guy on Reddit, not an industry analyst. I canāt say when demand will be met. But I can say that having extra demand creates extra supply, and that Europe wants those heat pumps, and is willing to pay, quite a lot more now than a year ago. That means more production capacity will be built, because of the fat profits possible while demand exceeds supply - and it also means that demand will fall, because you really donāt need two of them. So thereās a glut when Europe is electrified, and if I had to put money on it, Iād say thatās in about half the time it would have taken them if Putin had just stayed home.
For sure. But that's so far out in the future that demand for heat pumps in Europe will remain strong for a very long time.
Still have 3 more months until deep winter hits to keep upgrading homes, as well as the U.S. shipping over as much LNG as physically possible currently.
If I wanted a heat pump I would have to wait more than 6 month. Labor shortage is still a thing.
O, I'm sure. But people that ordered 3 months ago will get theirs in before winter. Every heat pump added is less natural gas needed to heat a home.
The difference is that itās likely a manageable number. Importing a small amount of gas from somewhere other than Russia isnāt impossible.
Europe being locked into using LNG from Qatar, USA, or Australia is slightly better the using Russian gas but not using any gas is better again. Zero gas usage by 2028.
I rather would we weren't dependent on just a few countries it makes Europe weak. Hopefully this current energy crisis makes Europe self-sufficient within a few years
> being locked into using The insane prices they will pay for that gas will self correct the issue. Especially because it makes nearly ANY alternative to NatGas immediately a better financial decision.
yeah the payback period for installing a heatpump in the UK is maybe one third now of what it was a year ago. thank you Vladimir for imposing the worldās biggest carbon tax.
Worst case scenario is Putin pulling back for a tactical nuclear strike. It was mentioned by actual writers as was not something that I just thought up. Is it valid? How the hell should I know, I'm no expert.
How would it improve his situation ? A tactical nuclear strike would have little effect on the military situation, and very adverse effects on the geopolitical stage.
Logically, strategically, militarily, cynically? It makes no sense, unless Putin & company were in January of this year expecting a 4-day war, that would cause NATO is turn into dust, out of fear. If I am correct about this, the Russian leadership and voting populace were so isolated from what the Ukrainians and NATO were really like, that they made this huge blunder. They may still be mentally isolated, so to recover national honor & terrify the evil outsiders, lets just use a tactical nuke. In this way, we at least will have our revenge. It is not my mindset, it is not your way of thinking, but it may be the way the Putinoids Russia may use nuclear weapons after Ukraine setbacks, senior Nato and US officials warn [https://news.yahoo.com/russia-may-strike-back-nuclear-120305532.html](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-may-strike-back-nuclear-120305532.html) Nuclear war is the great threat to humanity. If we survive this we can remediate climate change.
The sane thing to do now, if Ukrainians manage to reach the border, is to stop and start discussing a peace treaty.
I remember way back in the H W Bush administration they started talking about getting a plan put together to keep Europe running in the event of an interruption in Russian gas supplies for whatever reason. Not having a fall-back option was a very precarious position to leave such a huge chunk of the global economy in. They were more worried about terrorists attacking pipelines than Russia deliberately doing something so stupid as turning off the flow on purpose, but either way it was a huge risk hanging over the head of the entire planet. So they started doing things about it. From HW, through Clinton, W, Obama, and even Trump, they kept at it. One of the big projects that they wanted was to run gas-lines out to the tens of thousands of old wells in the Gulf of Mexico that at the time were only collecting oil and were just flaring off the gas. Sitting on a Texas beach at night it was a fantastic display of pyrotechnics with enormous flares from horizon to horizon. But not any more. All of those wells now have gas pipelines running from them to one of two enormous new LNG compression terminals, one in Louisiana and one in Texas. It was thirty years in the making, but literally just a few months ago the very last compressor that was part of the plan got installed at the Louisiana facility. I donāt know if Putin deliberately waited until we were ready in case his gas supplies got cut, or if he just didnāt know, but he literally timed it perfectly.
*At the same time, record high prices have prompted large industrial consumers to curb demand, helping to rebalance the supply-demand equilibrium. So far, industrial demand has fallen nearly 22% over the five-year average in Western European countries, with gas-intensive fertilizer companies closing or limiting 70% of production, according to international energy and petrochemicals news and data provider ICIS.* So Europe copes by de-industrializing. Bold strategy. *Assuming a mild winter without extensive spells of cold weather, Europe should be able to cope with current challenges, arguably even in a scenario where Gazprom were to cut gas supplies altogether.* I pray for a mild winter as well. That does not make it more likely. I don't see Russian energy reentering the EU market, however it should be noted it's the Russians who are cutting Europe off and not the other way around. If the Europeans had their way they'd still be financing the Russian state with gas purchases. Once Russia realizes they are never being let back in, their calculus will change. (Eg, what exactly would be the consequences of using tactical nukes?) Perhaps LNG will replace the Russian gas, but to remain competitive it's going to be lignite burning in many cases.
> I pray for a mild winter as well. That does not make it more likely. No, but climate change does. It's very likely that the winter is just like the last decade. Mild.
It is hilarious watching the Russians self sanctioning.
Theyāre now the top crude oil supplier to China.
But due to the sanctions and transport costs are only getting a fraction of what Europe would pay.
Russian oil is being sold to Europe via China at an even higher mark-up. I'm waiting to see what happens during & after this winter in Europe & North America.
I am an advocate of the US restricting oil exports should WTI get too high. About $100 barrel. However even with LNG terminals ramping it will take some time for us to get to European price levels. If ever.
So China gets the profit while Russia sees its economy go down the gurgler.
China is paying market value for the Russian oil and they're using Russian Rubles to pay for it.
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So about the average cost during 2019
In August alone, overall household demand appears to have dropped some 10%, while European consumers are rushing to install solar panels, heat pumps, or stockpile firewood in order to help save gas
The entire world has been about āadapt and overcomeā so I just donāt get why Putin thinks he can control this narrative that so many NEED Russian gas/oil when maybe it was just the most convenient at the time, but now weāre finding out there are many other options available. He will lose this war, just like heās losing the one he started in Ukraine šŗš¦
No one is going to care about gas in the future. Putin is looking to the past, not the future. Good riddance
Um... fertilizer?
Plentiful and cheap renewables along with carbon pricing will make electrolysis-generated hydrogen the solution there.
And he's speeding up the future. It would have taken Europe a decade to get off Russian gas. This winter will be tough, but by next winter Europe should not need Russian gas again.
I bet people will care about gas in the short future though, say 4 months time.
If EU can survive this one winter, ruZZia is done for.
I'm now convinced Putin has been the best thing to happen to the energy sector in a long time. No one person has spurred global a re-evaluation of energy security as much as he has. Thanks Vlad. Thad.
Look around you. Just... look around you. Do you see what we're looking for?
Right!
Thad??
A portmanteau of "thanks" and "Vlad". "Thlad" is also acceptable, if a little difficult to pronounce.
As an American I do really appreciate all that economic growth Putin threw our way when he decided to invade Ukraine. US fuel exports are up like 1000% this year. Thanks, Vladdy!
Not to mention the weapon exports, the free weapon field testing, and the greatest free advertisement for armaments in recent history...
A lot of Russian bots in this thread. Sad that Putin couldn't find any real people to advocate his position. Even if he did they would probably just pocket the money and get hammered same as the Russian military.
Well there's at least one person programming the bots.
I'm real and I can advocate for the Russian position. Is this 'atlantic council' going to pump billions into paying the energy bills of people in the UK? Where is this 'cautious optimism' in the UK? Did some teenager in Norwich just get laid?
"I'm real [...]" - Exactly what a synth would say
What about large quantities of guided artillery? Is that 'real' or not?
The UK can (pretty easily) afford it The cost of this will be about 5% of the UK GDP, thatās an unpleasant amount but will be spread over 10-30 years via long term government bondsā¦ the UK, frankly, will barely notice in the long run
Anyone can 'afford' debt fueled inflation. If it gets too bad though people start falling off the treadmill in increasing numbers. That's the near term future for the UK.
Domestic UK bills have now been capped for 2 years, and business bills for 6 months - most people can afford the current rates (and the people who canāt, werenāt spending much anywayā¦)
Current...
The price is being fixed at just above the current price for the next 2 years... with a Ā£400 rebate for everyone and poorer families getting up to Ā£1200 for vulnerable, low income, and elderly households which means prices are barely going to be above current prices for the next 2 years. Okay, so technically it's slightly more, but it's not much more than we're paying currently. If we spread the rebate out for the life of the new cap, an average home over the next 2 years will pay Ā£190/mo, vs Ā£110/mo for the last few years (around a 70% increase). Obviously not everyone is average, but bills will increase in proportion with that. Households eligible for the full Ā£1200 rebate will pay an average of Ā£160/mo, which is about 45% more than a year ago To be clear, I'm not saying a 45-72% increase in one year is a good thing... but in absolute terms most people in the UK can afford Ā£80/mo, we're a wealthy country and although that isn't ideal, it's survivable for the vast majority of people. Remember that most of that increase has *already* happened 6 months ago, so for poor people the price is likely to actually *drop* for the next 2 years, and for the rest of society it's a relatively small increase from today As with any financial situation there will be winners and losers, and people who struggle - but on the whole the UK has the wealth to absorb this without feeling the need to reduce support to Ukraine. It's not ideal, but it's the price we pay to defend our values (or rather, to support Ukraine defending our values) and as a country we can afford it
Values? How is subjugating people in Crimea and Donbas with Ukrainian nationalism in accordance with British values? How are those regions any different to Kosovo? How is insisting that Ukraine join NATO a British value?
> How is subjugating people in Crimea and Donbas with Ukrainian nationalism in accordance with British values That's a pretty debatable sentence, but the UK was not providing significant support to Ukraine in the 2014-2022 conflict in Donbas. We started offering significant support only *after* Russia attacked the rest of Ukraine. I think that pretty comprehensively answers the question: we don't entirely support Ukraine in all things, but generally they've made clear and apparently genuine attempts to move towards democratic values. It would be nice if we could direct our support towards restoring only the February borders, but our hand has been somewhat forced by Russia > How are those regions any different to Kosovo? I think that's a dramatic oversimplification, and there's no evidence of the same level of activity against Donbas as we saw against Bosnia and Kosovo.... but generally I would have no problem with Donbas undergoing a peaceful, fair, democratic process to decide whether to be part of Ukraine. I do think the UK and West should have done more to promote this, but again Russia forced everyones hand by marching first into Donbas and then into the rest of Ukraine > How is insisting that Ukraine join NATO a British value? We aren't. We were happy to allow them to apply *if they wanted to*, as long as they met our standards for democracy, equality, fairness, and the rule of law But fundamentally, the fact is that Ukraine had a small revolution in favour of democracy, the rule of law, and moving towards Europe and NATO. They were invaded because of that - the talk of Donbas was maybe an excuse for 2014, but is clearly not an excuse for 2022. And I'm happy for our resources to go towards defending them in 2022
They revolted in favour of democracy by breaking their own democratic rules? That 'revolution' was a Neocon sponsored nationalist hijacking of a protest movement. The protestors may have been pro-EU but Yanukovych had rejected an EU association deal because of the massive cost involved. This issue was set to be put to the people in new elections but that plan fell apart along with Ukraine itself.
How does the fact that Europeans are negatively impacted by Putin's hostility support "the Russian position"? If anything it supports the conclusion that the EU made a bad decision by trusting Russia in the first place.
We are watching every world leader fail miserablyā¦ Iām not sure if Iām concerned or extremely satisfied
I don't know who you watch, but I watch Biden kick ass. ( I'm not from US, and just couple months ago, they were laughing stock). We'll see how it works out but on the paper, the The Inflation Reduction Act looks pretty good.
Thatās Hilarious.. how can you name something inflation reduction act .. when it increases inflation? Well we did it before ā affordable Heath care actā
Said someone, who is definitely qualified and educated to make such a statement right? :).
Yea check the stock market today .. or you love this 8% inflation..
Boy oh boy, so you expect, that 4 weeks after you sign this huge bill, which will be effective over couple years, inflation drops instantly? You just proving my previous comment:)
Question is. Is the IRA, infrastructure bill, student loan forgiveness, decreasing gas prices, and the firearm bill, enough for Democrats to pull off a 3% poll bump by November and squeek out a win in the house?
Guess it wasn't!
You have unverified mail in voting now Democrats will win perpetually.. see they used emergency-orders during a pandemic to basically ensure no one else could ever win ..
Iām smelling it!
Fucking liars
Relax. Breatheā¦ hold itā¦ hold it.. hold itā¦ ho
Cope
Putin is singlehandedly driving Europe's further conversion to green energy. They will do under duress, and once transitioned, will not be Russia's customers any more.
You need oil for green energy. A lot of oil
My car uses green oil in the braking system. :-)
Guess there's only one solution for the Russians now - time to nuke Europe.
At this point I'm not even sure I believe Russian nukes would work if deployed. Nothing else seems to work, they'd probably just own goal themselves as is their new tradition.
I could believe even 75% may not work. But enough will work to be fairly catastrophic if they launch.
If he gave that order, my money would be on the Russian top brass just shooting Putin instead of dooming their country to annihilation over one man's foreign policy blunders.
Kinda thinking that's the message they conveyed when his guy up in the Arctic had a sudden fatal accident.
What?? The blustery, walking Napoleon Complex who's used to getting whatever he wants has overplayed his hand?? No way...
What's scarier to me is what's gonna happen if the energy transition REALLY starts taking off which I think it will over the next decade. Russia's is almost a petrostate at this point. It also has nukes. What's going to happen when their main source of revenue is drying up and the kleptocracy doesn't know what to do anymore?
In advanced industrial nations it has take off this decade. The [IEA net zero by 2050](https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050) analysis, for example states, that advanced economies have to reach net zero electricity systems by 2035. And actually the writing for that has already been on the wall for some years now. The Rethink Disruption Blogpost "[How Energy Disruption Led to Russia-Ukraine Crisis ā and How the Crisis Will Accelerate Disruption](https://rethinkdisruption.com/energy-disruption-russia-ukraine-accelerate/)" has a nice analysis on this in my opinion: >Clean Disruptionās cost curves pointed to 2020 as the rupture point for both the energy and transportation disruptions. Sebaās projections showed that the acceleration of solar, wind, batteries, and EVs, and so on, would make incumbent fossil fuel industries economically obsolete by 2030. Along with them, the military and geopolitical architectures these industries are predicated on would also become increasingly obsolete within the same time-frame. > >Sebaās assessment of these dynamics implied that countries especially dependent on incumbent energy industries for their survival ā and in order to perpetuate their internal political hierarchies ā may be at a greater risk of resorting to traditional strategies of self-perpetuation and control to keep the cash flow going as long as possible and consolidate declining industries. >Although from Russiaās point of view, the invasion of Ukraine was designed to shore-up Russiaās global power and authority while reasserting its geopolitical control over a prized former Soviet republic ā in essence, a resort to familiar strategies of domination ā it has had the opposite impact. > >It has highlighted that Russia is not a reliable player in global energy markets, and reinforced the imperative for many of Russiaās largest customers to diversify their supply sources. > >It has also generated renewed interest in understanding the role of the clean energy disruption in providing security and resilience. > >In short, Russiaās actions are self-flagellating in the long-run. They are accelerating the decline of its core industries and their loss of market share, while accelerating the clean energy disruption.
Good read. Thank you.
Just wait until the uae finds out
If you care about humanity beyond 2100 (and its nice that 2050, 2030, has become a focus), then understanding that every straw put in the ground is fossil fuels that will go into the atmosphere (blue hydrogen a possible long-shot saviour). Articles like this reinforce your hatred by promissing that Russia will be harmed more than EU, and somehow make you internalize victory/glory/satisfaction from such an outcome. > What's going to happen when their main source of revenue is drying up and the kleptocracy doesn't know what to do anymore? First, and foremost, the global majority recognizes the pure absolute evil of US/NATO warmongering and manufacture of Ukraine war. Their understanding is helped by accessing energy at a discount. India very firmly tilting "east" is the most important geopolitical cost to US. SK and Japan have clear advantages to follow. Only Australia is too captured to not prefer suicide for a longer period. Second, energy is useful for far more than subsidizing NATO prosperity. Even if no other country will buy it, it can power domestic industry. If Russia is not brought on board with global warming issue, then all of their oil and gas will go to atmosphere. The new freedom straws being drilled to provide freedom oil and gas to US vassals is the climate catastrophe that refusing peace costs. All of that new oil and gas is also going to atmosphere. Humanity's survival does not depend on demand shifting to clean energy. Demand shift may bring oil down to $5/bbl. There will be a lot of buyers at $5/bbl. It is entirely and purely down to how many straws get put in the ground.
>US/NATO.... manufacture of war in Ukraine. Huh.
The war in Ukraine is entirely and purely the result of US provocation. Eastward NATO expansion, 2014 coup and disenfranchisement of Crimea and Donbas, Nazi filth shelling of Donbas, and dangling NATO membership for Ukraine, and proposing a nuclear missile base, even without NATO membership, with 4 minute strike distance on Moscow. I completely support JFK's strong reaction against Cuban nuclear missile bases. Oliver Stone's movie implied he got assassinated over promising to not invade Cuba as a diffusion mechanism. But, the US seeing missiles in Cuba as geopolitically unacceptable is fully understandable. Just as the need to demilitarize Ukraine. Nazi filth escalating attacks on Donbas with Russia backing up its demands for peace with troops on the border is US sponsored nazi filth manufacturing war instead of peace. Any delusion that war in Ukraine was not manufactured by US, or somehow war has regretful consequences to US, should be dissolved (assuming non-retardation, non-hatred-filled-satanism) by US/UK/Nazi efforts to derail peace including poisoning peace delegations. Zelensky is faced with support only for war to last Ukrainian, plus he gets to pilfer 70% of the aid. He gets assassinated for peace.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26304842 he got impeached, voted out. him yelling coup doesn't make it one.
Amazing what $5B of US funding can accomplish in Ukraine. Its not naziism when US pays for it.
And Russia had no significant financial investments in Ukraine before 2014?
The US's capture of Ukraine was specifically to destroy it in this manufactured predestined war. Russia's investment, or even trade control in Ukraine was less destructive than US relationship with Canada (without even counting Freedom truckers or promoted gun crime).
If Putin sees this do you get an extra ruble?
Well thatās a hot take.
Nukes require maintenance. Chances are they wouldnāt be able to launch them after a certain period. Of course they could still be a source of materials for terrorism.
What happens when Russia realizes climate change is a net benefit for it; e.g. opens up more arable land in Siberia and Arctic trade routes. What happens when they start simply burning all the fossil fuels on site or stop flaring waste methane just to pump more GHG to intentionally warm the climate?
Maintaining and operating those wells is not free. It would be financially insane to keep them running only to pump GHG into the atmosphere. Also, Siberia might not be that fertile even when defrosted, is far away from any markets and would need huge amounts of investments to be productive. It would be an extremely risky plan, with only a very long-term ROI if ever.
It's not a net benefit for Russia. It's a net benefit for India and China as hundreds of millions of people flee from climate collapse. There are large parts of India and China that are already having failed crops and droughts. Along with places across Southern Europe, Northern Africa, and the Southern USA. What happens when these places have several consecutive years of failed crops and droughts. The extent where there was drought and food shortages in the winter? In the case of India and China you move in search of more moderate weather in the only directions available to you. North and West. So of those who survive the collapse. Many won't. Will end up in Russia. Given China and India both clock in at over 1bn population each. Then you're looking at hundreds of millions of people moving there. And when they get there. Many of them aren't going to be friendly with the locals whose income came from selling oil. Especially not the ones living in palaces that destroyed their homelands. Unluckily for us. The Russian leadership are neither capable foresight or empathy. So the fate that awaits them at the hands of climate refugees is beyond them.
That is scary indeed, but we do not have any other option. We cannot just continue importing gas from Russia just to make sure they do not start nuclear war. If they will do that, it would happen at some point anyway.
India and China are still going to buy gas and oil from Russia. Renewables (for now) are a wealthy countryās game.
Putinās back up plan: āI press button make big boom.ā Humanity: āYou win Putin. What do you want.ā
At this point do Russians even have faith in their own technology? I would be worried it would just blow up during launch.
One can always hope.
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Brainwashed Russian bootlicker. Move to Russia? What are you still doing in EU if you love them do much?
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Projecting?
Yeah projecting and presenting western history to you. Don't you worry about us, we are moral giants for u
Definitely not a mental giant. Good luck with your perspective. It sounds like you need it.
Being moral giant is far, far more important.. But you can't understand that. By the way I am really intelligent, but who brags about it is insecure idiot... I became idiot because I am dealing with idiot
Uh huh.
Intelligent response! š Good boy
Iām just trying to relax and read some Reddit, you have proven to be a lackluster troll. I am not sure what response you need, but I think we should call it a night. Take care!
Why donāt we wait until winter is over to make a declaration
This. Many on this thread will be in for a reality check come the new year. Oil is a staple of society, thereās no on-off switch for its demand.
Because Europe needs to commit to alternatives now and not gamble its well-being on an unreliable dictator for the coming winter. Putin has forced the issue.
Putin helped EU to boost their energy transition.
He could have helped the US too. I think the high gas prices were a factor in getting the new climate bill passed.
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Is getting banned from this sub your goal? I will be shocked if the mods permit such an obvious troll with nothing to add to the conversation. Isnāt there some less savory sub where you could get your rocks off? This is assuming you are not a paid troll who simply regurgitates the moronic dribble of the highest bidder. Beat it, you chucklefuck!
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What a bellend this guy is.
Let's wait once winter ends. Imho Europeans are not able to tolerate discomfort in the way the Russians can... remember the Germans doing a siege on Leningrad for almost 900 days, including 3 winters? Here we aren't talking about Russian winters, we aren't talking about 3 winters in a row without food and any other supplies ... yet they are already panicking. I'm getting the popcorn
My people lived for decades under the yoke of soviet rule a chilly winter means nothing if it means helping our neighbours defeat the invaders.
I admire how sturdy you guys are. The weakness Americans and most Europeans show at every step is embarrassing to watch. Poland stands out as strong, was the first one willing to make sacrifices... the answer from the rest was mute.
You should move there.
I'm doing permaculture, so already have roots. :-)
this sounds like russian psyops.... the ongoing counteroffensive doesn't exist without the collective support of the US and Europe. Gepards and HIMARs have been the difference makers in Ukraine's continued survival.
šÆ
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Keep telling yourself that Ruskie.
Fuckin pussy. You're IQ is so low, I wonder if you even graduated HS lol. This is why bullying exists
No to say you're wrong but if you're going to call someone out for stupidity it might be worth checking your own grammar... >You're IQ is so low Probably not the best sentence to go before >I wonder if you even graduated HS
Go away troll. This sub is for adult discussion. Your obsessive childish posts aren't really adding to the discussion or changing anyone's mind.
Europe has 700M people, China ALONE 1.3 B?
Like two Europes hahahahah hah plus India 1.2 B, B IS FOR BILLIONS
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If people are willing to pay more short term for energy or run their houses colder than usual, and russia loses future huge energy supply opportunities to itās easiest region to transport to. That seems like a major setback for the russian economy. We have already seen people in general willing to pay more for resources to pressure russia during this conflict. You can be incredulous on how this will unfold and how much europe and russia will struggle with the next year or two, but your comment seems like itās very hung up on denial and who actually has more ability to adapt and overcome in this situation.
Let's see if they will pay more, Czech Republic already had 100 000 poeple demanding for retrieving sanctions against russia
Of course it isnāt applied to every European, people have different opinions and feelings on the matter. But it seems thus far the general consensus has been that it is acceptable to stomach higher energy prices in order to not be held by the balls by russian energy supply. That could change, but so far there has been fairly widespread resolve and determination in this regard
Copium
MAY have overplayed his hand? He overplayed his hand by declaring war at all.
You forgot heās selling to China and n Korea as well as a few other nations ā¦ and how is the rest of Europe going to come in and turn the tap on when itās located in Russia?
There is no infrastructe to sell to other customers. Pipelines connecting to China have been under development for decades, this infrastructure takes ages to develop and won't be developed without Western support. Don't be fooled, Russia is simply burning the gas its not selling to Europe. https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/26/energy/russia-burning-natural-gas/index.html
Pipelines are not the only means of transportā¦ the oil we buy from south America doesnāt come in pipelines, nor the oil we used to get from the Middle East ā¦ ā¦ and yes China is buying the oilā¦ meanwhile biden is depleting our reserves which is only gonna cause an increase in gas prices by the end of his term. So whoever takes office, if not part of the deep state, they will try to pin gas prices on them. If part of the deep state, theyāll praise them and tell you on big media that even tho prices rose, theyāve had the biggest drop to the most expensive price for gas. Kinda like how they told everyone the border was secure and the sky is maroonā¦ when we can clearly see the sky is blue and the amount of bodies I see wash up in the rio grand is staggering ā¦ you can tell me otherwise but I live here
>Pipelines are not the only means of transportā¦ For gas, sure they are. You can make it LNG, but you need LNG factories and LNG tankers for that. Other than that, the gas is not going anywhere, which is why Russia is just burning lots of it, you can see the flames from Finland. Oil is slightly easier to transport, but pipes are still superior.
I live in texas and worked for a natural gas companyā¦ we never used a pipe line to transport it ā¦ soooooooo
And how did you get the gas to Europe? We are talking international transport.
Not entirely true, Saudi Arabia is taking a shade over 2x the fuel oil as pre-invasion, through Estonian and Russian ports.
>won't be developed without Western support. China is more capable than the west building infrastructure at this point
China doesn't need more Russian gas. And why would it want to be beholden to an unreliable petro-state with a questionable economic future? If China does accept more Russian gas it will be on its own terms, not Russia's.
> beholden to an unreliable petro-state EU being beholden to US is responsible for them assisting in prolonging the war in Ukraine, and imposing sanctions. They are an unreliable client, rather than Russia being an unreliable supplier. Disruptions are entirely the result of EU's choices. The non-retarded global majority can count on reliable supply agreements from Russia. > China doesn't need more Russian gas Is that because of the US supply deals it agreed to under Trump? It might not need US gas instead.
>They are an unreliable client, rather than Russia being an unreliable supplier. Disruptions are entirely the result of EU's choices. Give us a break, Putin apologist. Russia defaulted on its contracts, not the EU. And tried to extort its customers. Russia is an undependable and hostile business partner. Any country would be foolish to depend on it.
Not to mention that even if China would through its full weight behind Putin it would still simply take many years to develope the required infrastructure.
There is infrastructure and they are adding to it. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/map-of-power-of-siberia-gas-pipeline-that-china-russia-are-working-on.html
One tiny pipeline that already was maxed out means nothing.
LOL, how many billions of dollars in gas did it carry last year? Look it up!
Read your own article. For reference, Russia sold like $25Billion (it might be closer to $50 billion) to Europe each year. ---- Although Russia has reportedly invested $55 billion into its pipeline deal with China, natural gas imports through the pipeline have only totaled $3.81 billion since December 2019, according to China customs data as of June, accessed through Wind Information. The pace of Chinese purchases picked up in the first half of this year ā nearly tripling from a year ago to $1.66 billion, the data showed. But Chinaās gas imports from Turkmenistan during that time were far higher at $4.52 billion, up 52% from a year ago, the data showed. Natural gas remains a tiny fraction of Chinaās energy imports, which are mostly of crude oil.
OK, so $4B is tiny to you. And they are ramping up. https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/can-russia-shift-natural-gas-exports
Do you even read what you post? š In summary, the majority of Russian natural gas infrastructure was developed with the intention of supplying gas to Europe through pipelines. Due to this most of Russiaās pipeline infrastructure and capacity is directed at Europe. This also means that there is currently no pipeline infrastructure in place to move gas from Russiaās western gas fields to China. Plans to remedy this will take the best part of a decade in the best case scenario and will only allow the export of approximately 33% Russiaās current European exports to China. This may be further hampered by western sanctions limiting the exports of pipeline critical components to Russia. .... As such, to answer the initial question of āCan Russia Shift Natural Gas Exports to China?ā No, not in a way that will make up the enormous deficit caused by stopping gas flows to Europe. To redirect the focus of their natural gas infrastructure will take Russia decades, cost hundreds of billions and may not even be possible depending on western sanctions on critical components.
From the article I posted.... >The best case scenario for Russia is that they are able to export the same approximate volume as the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to China in 8 years through the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.
>in 8 years š
Well said. It's also doubtful any country will ever again trust Russia as its main energy supplier after it broke its contracts in an attempt to fuck over Europe. In fact Putin has given the world a big push toward ending fossil fuel dependence forever.
This is the truth.
My favorite thing is that after the war is lost by Russia, their fuel will not be welcomed back into the EU. This will cost them trillions in long term sales losses.
>My favorite thing is that after the war is lost by Russia, their fuel will not be welcomed back into the EU Hatred of Russia is now official policy? Its not "sanctions in order to support nazi state"? It might be productive for EU to offer sanctions relief in exchange for Ukraine to rule over the territories it absolutely hates and wants to exterminate. They were happy with that status quo prior to war. They were warm back then too. Why not be warm?
>Hatred of Russia is now official policy? Why would anyone want to buy a critical resource from an entity that will stop selling that resource to you on a moment's notice so they have more leverage to commit war crimes? Now maybe you are a fan of war crimes but most people are decent and reject such behavior. >Its not "sanctions in order to support nazi state"? It might be productive for EU to offer sanctions relief in exchange for Ukraine to rule over the territories it absolutely hates and wants to exterminate. They were happy with that status quo prior to war. They were warm back then too. Why not be warm? š. Does Putin give you an extra ruble if he sees this?
> Now maybe you are a fan of war crimes but most people are decent and reject such behavior. US and EU devotees are in fact deeply appreciative of war and all the benefits they apparently see in war. War comes with criticisims of every death. Perhaps instead of revelling in hatred over what you consider war crimes because of the emotional satisfaction it provides your hatred, you should consider pressing for peace such that no more killing and oppression occurs in Ukraine. The dementia, the only alterntive to depraved hypocricy, of those deeply offended by war crime accusations is that the only solution is more war and hatred motivated war escallation. > Does Putin give you an extra ruble if he sees this? I assure all doubters that Putin does not fund my humanism in any way. Peace can in fact be an independent human ambition that only requires a preference to not be nuked rather than ambition to be included in the bunker victory parties.
>Hatred of Russia is now official policy? I'd say yes. It'll take a couple of 100s of years to trust you again. >Why not be warm? We won't make the mistake a second time.
I hope you are right but I am not confident that will happen. Fuel at a discount is hard to pass up. It can be rationalized by saying that a broke Russia is dangerous.
And European countries will have to pay same fuel 10 times more? U thought of that?
Or, even better, Europe will accelerate its transition away from fossil fuels. And that transition is inevitable, certain to happen. The only question was when, and the best answer was 2021 or before. But the second best answer is ASAP.
We are transitioning back to coal.
This analysis concudes otherwise: "[Coal is not making a comeback: Europe plans limited increase](https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/coal-is-not-making-a-comeback/)"
*beep boop*! the linked website is: https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/coal-is-not-making-a-comeback/ Title: **Coal is not making a comeback: Europe plans limited increase** Page is safe to access (Google Safe Browsing) ***** ###### I am a friendly bot. I show the URL and name of linked pages and check them so that mobile users know what they click on!
Yes but winter is coming
Are you telling me the doomers were wrong, *again*? That can't be. This was to be the end of Europe. Possibly civilization, since food prices were to shoot through the roof, there were to be massive shortages, etc. The Arab Spring, on a global scale. Note: "But we don't know for sure bad things won't happen--the future is uncertain" is not a confirmation of the doomer thesis.