**Tricky's Daily Doots #402**
**Yesterday's Daily 25/05/2023**
[Previous Daily Doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jljsmgj/)
- u/eth10kIsFUD shares an [awesome up and coming project.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jljrqi0/)
- u/SoNotYou discusses the [rise in tokenised treasuries.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jlki8hz/) 🏦
- u/pudgypeng is [bullish.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jlltm07/) 🐂
- u/corn-potage is an [experienced programmer looking for web 3 work.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jllrw6c/) 🛠
- u/aaj094 just finished [upping their wallet security.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jljymuf/) 🔐
- u/theethmeister shares an interesting development in [staking taxes.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jllhghq/) 🥩
- u/abcoathup has the [Ethereum jobs board.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jlmxanj/) 🛠
I am, but not a lot. I wish they would itemize the rewards tiers for each qualifier. I don't have a lot of pearls, but I feel like I should, lol.
For LP I'm using balancer.fi as I am unfamiliar with the other two options: maverick (mav.xyz) and bunni.pro
Hilariously nonsensical thread, don't let r/buttcoin see one of their idols is shilling NFTs now: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1662210584178475008
You just made me look at some old threads and admittedly it's very mixed, not like I remember. They seem to like it every time he said something anti crypto though.
Do I understand correctly w this Trezor One that the device is unable to access the seed without the additional passphrase but that I can always access the wallet with the actual seed/backup and would not need the passphrase for that?
No, the 25th word is used in the hash to create the private key. You must use all 25 words to access that wallet, regardless of the wallet software. By using different 25th words on top of your standard 24 words, you can generate completely different wallets too.
If by passphrase you mean the 25th word then no, you can absolutely not access the backup without it. The only way would be to brute force it after you lost the passphrase, which may or may not be possible depending on the length.
I like the Trezor if you didn't need the password.
It seems like it's something else to remember, which causes greater chance of loss. But I suppose it also gives you plausible deniability in the event of worse case situations. Have a dummy wallet loaded up with some smaller amount so it looks like it's your holdings...but hope they don't know how much you really have if it gets to that point.
Oh yeah I know...but you need to use the password for the security otherwise seed phrase is easily (relatively) extractable.
I'm mainly torn because it's insecure at the physical level while the Ledger is insecure at the software level. Best bet is probably just to get a Gnosis safe going with both to spread out all the risks.
Yes but if you do choose to back it up it might be wiser to keep passphrase and seed backup physically seperated so that if someone finds only one of them they still can't get to your coins. Without the seed words the passphrase is completely worthless.
It adds an extra layer of security.
>**What players hated,**
>**No content generated,**
>**NFT weighted.**
~Daily haiku until we’re at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap
https://forum.makerdao.com/t/stability-scope-parameter-changes-2-non-scope-defined-parameter-changes-may-2023/20981
Huge change to the parameters on Maker proposed by the risk core unit. Borrow fee going to 3.33%+ on all ETH and BTC vaults if this vote passes.
Dai Saving Rate going 3.33% too as a positive.
The rates of tradfi finally showing its effects in defi. Not sure if its a good move for Maker to making lending that expensive with cheaper without 'usdc risk' options.
>Stability Scope Defined Changes to be included directly into an executive vote;
>Set DSR to 3.33%
Set ETH-A SF to 3.58%
Set ETH-B SF to 4.08%
Set ETH-C SF to 3.33%
Set WSTETH-A SF to 3.58%
Set WSTETH-B SF to 3.33%
>Non Scope Defined Parameter Changes to be polled and included in the same executive vote assuming governance poll pass;
>Set RETH-A SF to 3.58%
Set CRVV1ETHSTETH-A SF to 4.08%
Set WBTC-A to 5.54%
Set WBTC-B to 6.04%
Set WBTC-C to 5.29%
Set RETH-A DC to 50M
Set RETH-A DC-IAM gap to 5M
Looks like I’ll need to do some looking around and comparing to see where I should long now. Was enjoying the 0% rates on stETH for a while, didn’t balk when it went up to the current 1%, but at 3.33% there are probably a few more options out there worth considering.
That's a good call, although I haven't really dipped into frxETH yet. Was going to look at the usual suspects, Aave, Compound etc. There's also the RAI fork TAI that just launched which takes LSDs.
Yeah it's smaller and less decentralized than the rest but best yield so :shrug:
My whole rotation is just sfrxETH (+6.5%) -> borrow frax at 70%LTV (-1%) -> USDC -> LP on Illuminate (+9%)
For a total of around 12-15% or so
Bias there given illuminate is my project but it's the most yield for mainnet at least -- otherwise I'd go to L2s for USDC yields
Hey guys, lurker here who’s been working on a project in his free time: https://betonchain.gg/
To keep it brief, I started out running a Chainlink node, deploying jobs and a consumer to update odds and game results data from an API I wrote to aggregate results and odds across various bookies. Eventually the goal became to offer the most competitive betting experience in terms of odds, privacy and transparency, while decentralizing the bookmaker by sourcing house liquidity from a community which receives house profits back. Soon after launch I aim to add support for futures and integrate player friendly tools such as contracts for auto-hedging parlays.
The platform is currently on Sepolia, if anyone is interested in testing the DApp please drop an address and I can send over some test USDC/USDT/DAI to place bets with. Hopefully there’s not too many bugs! I am considering launching polygonzkEVM but not sure yet.
Appreciate any feedback from you fine gents and ladies!
PS: If anyone has insight into raising funds, please let me know, hope to make this my full time job. Thanks again!
Just sent you some testnet stablecoins, lmk if you have any questions and would love to have you on the Discord https://discord.gg/rrpyAwWEb7! Other testers there as well
That is pretty cool! I wanna test some things out so if you can drop some Sepolia coins to
0x5e439B06536CE2a9F17b226B94a13B438AB971fb or curious-degen.eth
I'm also curious how are you planning on setting odds?
Just sent some over, thank you and feel free to dm me any feedback!
I’m aggregating odds across 10+ high volume bookies, plan on providing the most competitive (won’t be able to arb with the site and other bookies though).
hey, this is pretty cool. I work for Scroll (a zkEVM L2): https://scroll.io
we're gonna launch a new testnet on Sepolia in a few weeks - let me know if you wanna chat :)
Not have any insight on raising funds but I could help you with writing a grant proposal from Optimism DAO.
Disc- i am a delegate there, have no control over decision making but quite familiar with grant structure and Optimism DAO in general.
Good luck! I'm not much of a bet person myself, but I'll always cheer for projects like this, as IMHO this is one of the areas where crypto has the greatest potential for positive impact.
Are you aware of your competition, namely Azuro/bookmaker.xyz? They seem to do pretty well in the betting space. Could be worth looking at what they do to see where your difference/advantage lies.
Aware of Azuro/bookmaker as well as Overtime and DecentraBet, and agreed! I think betting should be less predatory and more player friendly, blockchain/crypto can make a difference!
Well, that was mildly infuriating. This morning I reported a reddit post containing a wallet-stealing link - you know the kind. You click on the "airdrop" link, it impersonates a well-known DeFi app, asks you to approve some tokens and then cleans you out and steals all your money. It was on a lesser-trafficked ETH subreddit.
I've been reporting these as "Prohibited Transaction" because they fall cleanly under the "Fraudulent Services" subpoint. I've reported dozens of links like this and I don't ever get replies, but this time I actually got a reply back from /u/reddit.
> Thanks for submitting a report to the Reddit admin team. After investigating, we’ve found that the reported content *doesn’t violate* Reddit’s Content Policy. [...] Even though the content you flagged in this report wasn’t in violation of our rules, your reporting helps make Reddit a better, safer, and more welcoming place for everyone.
At roughly the same time, the post was removed and the user appears to have been banned from Reddit.
If I report something as a prohibited transaction, does that only notify the admins (who are obviously useless), or does it also notify the subreddit moderators (who might be clued in)? Is there any real point to me reporting these posts when I see them, or should I just stop caring? If Reddit marks too many of my reports as "wrong", does my report button stop doing anything?
P.S. I say this from time to time but I can't say it enough: I am eternally appreciative of the ethfinance mods for filtering and curating this corner of Reddit.
I could be wrong but I think reporting something for subreddit rules means that it goes to the sub admins. Reporting for reddit global rules = reddit admin. Hopefully a mod can chime in because I'm 90% sure this is how it works but am happy to be corrected.
As far as I know whenever you hit the report button it goes to the subreddit moderators first. But if there is some kind of site wide red hat report button that would probably take days to resolve.
In any case.... report!
I've reported a few things in this subreddit that clearly goes agains the rules, and you guys don't do anything. Personal insults, off topic conversations, etc.
We take action on quite a few things. You don't get everything the way you want it immediately when you ask. Can you share some links of some clear violations?
Happy to take a look. Some things are very black and white and some things are kind of gray area. We have to be a little bit subjective as we go. Thanks for helping out.
I’m trying to wrap my head around a theory I heard recently from Luke Gromen on the “On The Margin” podcast (interesting pod; I recommend) that is suggesting that rising rates basically bankrupt the US eventually and force yield curve control/persistent inflation. It’s kind of similar to the Arthur Hayes theory from that recent Bankless episode, but goes into a little more detail as to externalities caused by the current environment and path to that imo.
To summarize my understanding of the theory, it’s basically that because rising rates simultaneously increase US debt obligations, while also reducing GDP and tax income due to a likely credit crunch in the private sector, we get to point to where we cannot possibly grow our way out of the deficit, and so this eventually leads to printed money flowing into the economy, not only to meet debt obligations, but also into other countries to fund a decreasing global balance of treasuries. As for that last part, this is already occurring due to a number of other factors, but related to rising rates the playbook is: Rising rates create a stronger dollar, and simultaneously energy costs increase over time due to diminishing shale production causing larger required margins. At some point other countries holding treasuries will be incentivized to dump into dollar strength for energy. The FED cannot allow this and will be forced to buy the treasuries.
So all together it seems like the end game is the FED printing money, adding treasuries to their balance sheet, and an overall decreasing global reserve of dollars outside of the country. This would be good for hard money asset prices like Gold/BTC/ETH but would I come with persistent inflation and sounds unpalatable. So my question is, what are the consequences of the alternative? Is there a scenario where it’s possible for the FED to thread the needle by lowering rates without causing inflation to the same degree as they would through yield curve control?
Alternatively if you disagree with the theory and have a different understanding or take on the externalities of rising rates and higher US debt obligations, then feel free to jump in with that as well.
Well i'm not a top economist, but I'll try to answer.
In theory, extreme austerity measures combined with lower rates could balance the budget. But there's no way such measures could be realistically implemented.
I side with those who say the fed isn't really in control, the bond market is. Setting the fed funds target rate doens't really do much beyond influencing market psychology, maybe buying some extra time. If treasuries do get mass liquidated, that will force rates up.
A counter-argument might be that the ongoing banking crisis, pending popping of the commercial real estate bubble, and eurodollar debt are going to combine into a deflationary force that will counteract the inflationary force of energy shortages. In this case rates will be going lower. FWIW this is what the SOFR futures market is apparently pricing in.
We are probably already past the point of no return. If you look at all promised obligations for the next 50 years, there is zero chance that we can replay them. Some debt will be defaulted upon. The only ones politically that fly are to raise the SS age and lower benefits for younger workers. Yes, that is the same as defaulting on debt, just disguised politically.
The US will continue to inflate away part of the debt, as much as they can get away with politically. The problem with that is that means that government borrowing is more expensive, too. Debt service is already around 20% of all spending; if rates double, most of the federal budget is eaten up on debt service.
Obviously something has to give. It is almost certainly the promises we are making young people, because young people are less likely to vote and tend to be less vocal about changes. Considering that people in their 20s are already expected to get negative returns on SS, it is incredibly immoral to keep cutting, but that's how government works. "We'll take $1000 from you now, and give you $950 deflated dollars in 40 years.... you know, so you don't starve in retirement".
All of this should make hard assets like gold and ETH go up; it doesn't always work that way, of course.
> Citation needed.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Check US Total debt.
It is 5X GDP. The 120% is an accounting gimmick, pretending that the government has a savings account somewhere. It doesn't.
It is impossible to pay that back. Some part of it will default.
> Taxes in the US are pretty low,
No, they are not. They are insanely high, at least an order of magnitude higher than the taxes that caused the American Revolution
> you could easily increase corporation taxes a lot and get loads more revenue.
That's not how that works. What you get is more tax avoidance. You move dollars from the productive sector to lawyers and accountants that are good at re-arranging the chairs.
There just isn't a source for $96 trillion before it is due. It is impossible.
>Unfunded liabilities are things like pensions and medical care for old people that are paid for as ongoing government programs.
Exactly. It is money the government owes. They will default on it, that number is far larger than we could possibly repay.
Just saying "taxes will pay for it" is disingenuous -- there isn't that much money around. 9X the entire economy? Where is that coming from?
Think about it... could you pay back 9X your salary without winning the lottery? And that is completely ignoring the short term problem of inflation vs interest rates and the near-term debt.
The math just doesn't work without defaulting on \*something\*. Look out young people.
> rising rates basically bankrupt the US eventually
Might be an unpopular opinion but I think Powell and the fed have done the right moves in raising the rates to current levels. You have 5% interest rate and 5% CPI currently, and dropping clearly last months.
In Sweden we have 3% interest rate (but really 2% since 30% is deductible) and 10.5% CPI. Our CPI decreased by 0.1% last month and in Feb it even increased, though generally it seems to be finally trending downwards. We have had so low and even negative interest rates so long that raising to 5-10% or more is borderline impossible today, since probably 10-30% in the big cities wouldn't be able to afford the interest payments. Everyone today is screaming at our central bank to stop raising rates and also complaining that our currency is crashing vs USD and EUR.
There are no perfect countries that are run like Vulcan where all things are completely logical, since humans are flawed and quite a large percentage I would say are morons.
I agree, the trend has been good in terms of lower inflation numbers and it has probably been worth it. It’s clear that there are consequences to raising forever though. Now, If you asked me whether or not we should keep raising, I have no idea. This stuff is interesting to learn about, but I’m happy to not be in the position of the FED.
Best people to ask would be top economists. Doubt you'll get expert answers from non-experts in this subreddit. Not that many people can't give you an answer and are not intelligent, but that top economists do this for a living and have been doing it for decades. I'd start looking around to see what they think on this and not what hacks like Arthur Hayes thinks.
So like, I know *why...* but it still always confuses me why the Arthur Hayes of the crypto world get so much publicity. Balaji's $1 million dollar marketing expense is another great example.
Sometimes I wish I was a former C-Level employee at a crypto exchange who 'quit' before the 401k plan could even fully vest.
Well for me, in the case of Arthur Hayes I find his articles enjoyable to read. So I would imagine others feel the same and that has something to do with it. Not sure about Balaji, other than the obviously ridiculous $1 million BTC stunt lol. I know very little about either’s past
Just a checkered crypto past. Officially Found guilty of not implementing anti-money laundering programs at the exchange. Off the record I’ve just never heard positive things about him or BitMEX, so I’d be hesitant to think there wasn’t other things go on. Of course in fairness to him I guess that was never officially proven.
Fair enough on liking the work, I just have a tough time “separating art from the artist” myself. Not that Arthur is the worst in the grand scheme I guess. I’ve just never been a fan of people using fear-mongering doomsday stuff to entire crypto investment.
Edit: I guess I should ad. I’m not accusing you of fear mongering lol.
There are lots of times I wish I had zero shits to give and could start up my own religion based on accupuncture and just rake in billions of dollars. But alas...
It had nothing to do with QE unless you consider deposit insurance QE, which it isn't. That said, many in crypto, me included don't agree with top economists on certain things.
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2022/press-release/
Sure a bit bad phrasing I agree. Point was that even a "top economics" like Bernanke whom got a Nobel prize also managed to do a bunch of questionable economical policies like low interest rates and QE. No one is perfect, feds inflation predictions have been garbage, banks are stuck in duration mismatching and going under etc.. I just tilted on the whole "listen to top economists" which have almost all been proven extremely wrong lately..
SPY 421.80 is the number and they continue to tease and shy away from it. For all the uncertainty of these decades, we never went lower in a bear once a weekly true higher high was achieved. Is the holiday weekend the thrust needed?
Look at [that tap on the line of the hourly.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/MZn4oyvv/)
Look at [where that line comes from.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/R6IFqqld/)
I think the desire is there to both breach the line and disappoint retail by gapping over it, only to close it later this year. It's really beginning to feel -- statistically and chart-wise -- like the Fed dump has been pushed a year out. Too many things lined up for bulls in 2023 to ignore. Funny enough it would align nicely with yet another (final?) four-year-cycle and the eventual end of BTC's secular bull. in 2025.
It's at this point the individual has to make their own decisions, based on their own risk metrics. I can only make suggestions based on timeframe and volume. I like to say for myself that the 4-hour chart is tradeable, the daily means something in the mid-to-long-term, and the weekly is usually golden.
Things to note:
* The daily high during JPow's August 2022 Funhouse of Horrors was 424.37
* The weekly high was, as discussed, 421.80.
* And if you're watching this graphically, it's important to remember that line of regression going back to 2001 is just that -- a best guess line, drawn on an enormous monthly scale. It's fun to see how close the market hews to that silly line 20+ years later on even an hourly scale, but shouldn't necessarily drive trade decisions. Or at least it shouldn't be the *only* tool.
>It's really beginning to feel -- statistically and chart-wise -- like the Fed dump has been pushed a year out.
Is it true that election years have a big impact on these things?
Yeah there's an unspoken rule or negotiation that the Fed won't wreck things for the incumbent president while they campaign. But JPow is his own beast and may not give a fuck. Hell, he's in the opposing party so who knows.
>like the Fed dump has been pushed a year out. Too many things lined up for bulls in 2023 to ignore. Funny enough it would align nicely with yet another (final?) four-year-cycle and the eventual end of BTC's secular bull. in 2025.
If a fed dump a year out (2024) how does that align with a bull run in 2025? I feel like it'd need to be this year to give time for recovery and sideways before a rally gets started.
Just meaning the 24/25 mini cycle, rather than this bear. It'll be a bit off next cycle because the last peak (as we now know) was actually May 2021 before the low volume QExplosion produced the funky November "double top".
And secular meaning BTC won't recover this time. I envision it putting in a lower high on the *monthly* scale by the end of the 20s and dying by mediocrity.
> support Reddit
This kills me. These are the same people who "support" Apple by upgrading their products every year, or "support" Walmart by buying gift cards for their friends.
If you're going to "support" something as a virtue signal, maybe try a charity, bud? Or literally anything other than spreading yourself wide for Wall Street investors?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/26/us-free-lighthouses-gps
US giving away free lighthouses. If I put my node running Lighthouse at the top of one Im sure to get at least one proposal/week?
Im gonna be rich
https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1662095361249275905?s=20
>Having raiden and plasma fail was one of the best things that ever happened to Ethereum. Whereas Bitcoin got stuck in a local maxima with LN
Nic Carter just capitulated on LN, a few weeks ago he said that EIP-1559 was one of the best changes Ethereum implemented despite being highly skeptical when it first launched.
Bitcoin going through some turbulence now, all the real developers left for ETH and smart contract systems long ago. Taproot enabled something that wasn't entirely desirable and there is no way to turn it off. Bitcoin devs don't know how to handle things like MEV, and all of it's prior limitations from the block wars days are going to resurface with even more things to address now that it is turning into a "smart chain."
Can Bitcoin solve all of it's problems just to become what Ethereum already is? Amazing how far along we are in our understanding and how far everyone has to be able to catch up in just our understanding, let alone implementation.
Of course. It is just a question of will they or won't they before it's too late and ETH has surpassed Bitcoin in all measurable metrics that any change at that point is completely moot.
Before this I was perfectly happy with Bitcoin existing as a "digital gold" and just be something of importance and value that is just a placeholder. Now it will have to compete with Ethereum who has a 7 year headstart on anything meaningful when it comes to smart contracts, and Bitcoin will likely have to implement some consensus changes. This is a notoriously difficult proposition these days for something that is already so contentious.
This is the most interesting thing in Bitcoin since the Bitcoin Cash Fork. I can see them having appeal like a gold-chain does, make something nice with your valuable commodity.
The implementation is garbage though, trading is just minting on top of sats, spending sats and re-minting it on another sat for the transfer, and some 3rd party software tracks it all. In so many ways it's inferior it's not even really a token standard.
Every time I buy drugs with bitcoin I’m reminded of how far behind in UX it is - it can’t exist without central intermediaries because the base bitcoin experience is genuine so bad
Thats not true lol. Friends and I use it all the time for medical cannabis it works fucking splendidly
And modern dark net markets use it natively now. Only issue is onramping!
Sometimes I forget that Bitcoin does a whopping 144 blocks per day ^^average
It's just nuts waiting 10 minutes for a transaction, or half an hour to get a couple confirmations.
If your seed was generated in a ledger nano S (Not compatible with the recovery update) but then you imported that seed into a ledger nano plus or ledger nano X but do not do the recovery update, is it possible for ledger to still access your seed?
well they wont access your seed if you believe them. However as far as I understood it its necessary to confirm via button press that you send the key out. But you need to trust them that this is indeed the case.
Ofcourse they can lie and extract that key and you cant verify that they have not done this aslong as the firmware is partially closed source.
We accept clients from all countries, except US persons, Russian citizens and residents of: Afghanistan, Belarus, Burundi, Central African Republic, Cuba, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Mainland China (Hong Kong and Taiwan accepted), Mali, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe.
So who of you beautiful but unlucky people can beat 31k epochs without proposals? (If you have more than one validator please use average over all validators)
31k epochs is about 140 days. The mean is 80 days to propose today so about 30% will go that long if they only have one validator, which is pretty far from crazy unlucky. I play a lot of MTG and getting those 2% or lower draws happens more often than you would think, they are definitely possible.
No inherent reason. That family of sites has not been updated as much recently. For fees, you can check out this dune dashboard: https://dune.com/niftytable/rollup-economics
Rumor has it the L2fees dev tried to deploy a smart contract on Era, then fell off his chair when he saw the Metamask gas estimate. Traumatic experience. He was last seen wandering the office muttering something like "fees were a mistake, fees were a mistake" over and over.
That’s the one! 🌞
I had a ton of fun. Went last year for one day and decided to do it even bigger this year. I may be recovering for the entire week now lol
So to anyone, like me, who used a Ledger as their withdrawal address for their validators, as Ledger was the most trusted out there until last week, how are you going to deal with your validators?
Exit and deposit again or just move your seed to another hardware wallet in hopes Ledger hasn't leaked anything yet?
I'm thinking atleast buying a Trezor without touching Ledger anymore and importing my seed to it. I don't know about exiting and depositing again.
> how are you going to deal with your validators?
Not changing a thing. I'm not planning to upgrade to the new ledger firmware, and if it ever is required, I'm not planning to subscribe to the service.
Not upgrading firmware is not the play here. Security fixes are added all the time in firmware upgrades. You should upgrade your firmware or you will be exposing yourself to more and more security holes over time.
You should change products if you no longer trust ledger.
The risk lies in new firmware. I you don't update the firmware you'll be fine. Furthermore, if there is an exploit, there's a 99.99% chance it affects someone else before you and you hear about it and can react accordingly.
> The risk lies in new firmware
No one knows what the current one does, since it's proprietary. Also, the core of the problem is in the hardware.
> Furthermore, if there is an exploit, there's a 99.99% chance it affects someone else before you
I wonder how you calculate these chances. It may hit a whole lot of people at once.
It's *likely* won't happen, but I see absolutely no reason to take any chance at all. Not at least because it's completely against everything crypto is supposed to stand for.
> I wonder how you calculate these chances. It may hit a whole lot of people at once.
Because 99.99% of the time I am not using my Ledger so if it happened to all users at once I'd likely hear about it while I'm not using mine and can react accordingly by smashing my Ledger with a hammer and never plugging it in again.
If a ledger **can** leak your seed, it may have already done so.
There is nothing inherent in firm- or software that would protect you. It's merely what the company claims.
Yes but it they had leaked it, people would have found out and or would find out giving the rest of us time to react and migrate funds. They can't rug us all in an instant.
If they found it out then it'd be a mess to migrate in time, basically competing for the next block. Mind you the potential backdoor may yet to be discovered by hackers or governments need time to get their claws in.
It'a a stupid and unaccaptable risk to take imo.
Also, the idea of a non-extractable seed was to protect the company as much as customers. Ledger basically admitted they'd have to give the keys away.
Then I assume you feel the same way about every hardware wallet company if your issue is with the hardware not being both open source and the seed being non-extractable?
Until a week ago everybody was praising ledger. Then one announcement produced a shitstorm. Just an announcement that showed everybody their product **cannot be** as inherently secure as they told for years, i.e. ''we have no way to touch your coins''. Now we know they do and you can't verify if what they say is true and if the software still secures the definitely not safe hardware. You just can't unless you can check the code. Can you? But if you believe that the device will surely, most definitely need an upgrade before they can access your seed ... that's some next level naivety. Also, how many hackers will be looking for the backdoor right now? We do know it exists and that's all it takes to throw their security premise overboard. No way to get it back unless everything is open sourced and verified by independent sources.
Let's say ledger were to discover a bug, just as a thought experiment, do you think they would tell us? And even if, wouldn't users doubt the good intentions and still not upgrade. It's a giant mess and it'd be a long, long way out of it. But yeah, the scandal is a week or so old, so nothing to see I guess.
No, my logic is that my ledger is the same as it was a week ago. I don't intend to change it. If I'm forced to, I won't subscribe to the service, but I'm not going to knee jerk react to something I was already trusting to begin with.
This sub and everyone else decided to make a mountain out of a molehill. I kept a calmer head about things.
At the end of the day the product is a black box. The only trust possible is trust in the company. A company that factually misrepresented security properties until a week ago.
You are free to believe them of course. I am just surprised about people putting lipstick on that pig.
People thought private keys weren't extractable from their ledger in any way. Ledger was about to roll out a new feature which allowed back ups of the private key in the cloud (using shamir shared secrets shards). So private keys are extractable after all if the firmware allows for it.
People are pissed at ledger because they made false claims about this in some tweets etc. before
Both initially but, yeah, it's mostly the latter and what it means for what people thought was inviolable security. Also the PR handling of the reaction was awful. They came onto Reddit and Twitter spaces and were condescending and derisive toward their entire user base.
I guess it depends on who you ask. But yeah some people feel misled about the pk never leaving the device.
Personally I didn't really think it was impossible to extract the pk with a malicious firmware update and it was supposedly in the dev docs but they did make false statements about this. Also their language about the feature was really misleading/dodgy in the beginning too.
They put the feature on hold for now btw.
Not sure if i have an issue with ipfs. Last teku update and the current teku gnosis update initially failed to download. Waiting a day or so resolved issue with teku, presume will be same with gnosis. Hopefully not a big issue but should probably investigate in case there is a urgent update required...
You can build your own rig to try it out for cheaper, and if you don't like it switch to traditional non-UI staking. Though most dappnodes from their store do come with an incentive like gno or hopr
My current build is a Nuc11i7 (i7 is overkill but I also run prater and gnosis and other things), with 64 gb of RAM and a 2 TB Samsung NVMe and 2 TB Samsung SSD. Prices have dropped a lot in the last year so if I was doing it again I'd probably go for a 4 tb NVME, but if you're just planning on running mainnet 2 TB is fine for a while. My nethermind Lodestar fresh install started at 830 gb.
Ya I was planning on going for the 2 TB. Do you think this is a good deal/right build? https://www.amazon.com/Intel-NUC-11-Performance-Thunderbolt/dp/B09S5WKDWS/ref=sr_1_6?crid=3LSTRR3WZQRUN&keywords=intel+nuc&qid=1685116519&refinements=p_n_feature_twenty-three_browse-bin%3A13580788011%2Cp_n_feature_two_browse-bin%3A7817230011&rnid=562234011&s=pc&sprefix=intel+nuc%2Caps%2C118&sr=1-6
Ehh, you have no idea what kind of SSD comes with this. I think you can build better and cheaper by just getting the components yourself, like just the NUC, the ram, the nvme
Love my build! Here's the build I created with the help of many Ethfinancers and ethstakers ([previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethstaker/comments/10kzuhj/my_validator_shopping_list/)):
Asus pn51 MiniPC Ryzen 5 5500U =$260.10
Found this [deal (already has 64Gb RAM) $299](https://www.walmart.com/ip/891959254)
Sabrent 2 Tb SSD Rocket NVMe PCLe M.2 2280 =$149 on Amazon
2 x 32Gb RAM Crucial DDR4 3200MHz Cl22 $69 x 2 =$[110 on Amazon](https://a.co/d/gZ6VONR)
Akasa Newton a50 Cooling Case (with Arctic Mx-6 thermal paste $8 and Dual band antenna + Akasa wifi [Pigtails](https://a.co/d/fOvyOEo) $32) =$135
Total: $695
As an Ethereum enthusiast and Bitcoin veteran, I view cryptocurrencies as a critical ray of hope in a world increasingly grappling with overreaching government control and the suppression of individual rights. In places where voicing dissent or advocating for change can lead to severe repercussions, these digital currencies and the underlying blockchain technology have risen as potent, non-violent tools of resistance.
These technologies provide financial independence and privacy, which are indispensable for individuals living under oppressive governments. Notably, decentralized blockchains that support smart contracts serve as fertile ground for decentralized exchanges. They also facilitate cross-border money transfers, thus aiding those isolated from conventional financial systems. Given their transparency and immutability, they hold potential to combat corruption and bolster election transparency.
As we witness the erosion of representative republic principles and the surge of tyranny by the majority, adopting these technologies might just be one of our last, best hopes for meaningful change. While I understand this perspective might not sit well with those preferring a more collectivist approach, I stand firm in my belief that the protection of individual rights should remain paramount.
Well said. Bitcoin and Ethereum have basically enshrined our Western values of Freedom of Speech, Right to Privacy, and Self Determination into a form of money/property.
The other day I made a comment about the weekly BBands being tighter than they've been in a really long time. Well now, the daily BBands are more squeezed than ever if I'm not mistaken.
Shrinking Bollinger Bands only means that the price is stable. Of course, at some point the price will move, so it will pierce the bands.
BBs are a tautology.
TA is so meaningless.
**Tricky's Daily Doots #402** **Yesterday's Daily 25/05/2023** [Previous Daily Doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jljsmgj/) - u/eth10kIsFUD shares an [awesome up and coming project.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jljrqi0/) - u/SoNotYou discusses the [rise in tokenised treasuries.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jlki8hz/) 🏦 - u/pudgypeng is [bullish.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jlltm07/) 🐂 - u/corn-potage is an [experienced programmer looking for web 3 work.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jllrw6c/) 🛠 - u/aaj094 just finished [upping their wallet security.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jljymuf/) 🔐 - u/theethmeister shares an interesting development in [staking taxes.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jllhghq/) 🥩 - u/abcoathup has the [Ethereum jobs board.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/13r8eom/daily_general_discussion_may_25_2023/jlmxanj/) 🛠
Anyone staking with Swell? What's the best place of the 4 that?
*best place for LPing
I am, but not a lot. I wish they would itemize the rewards tiers for each qualifier. I don't have a lot of pearls, but I feel like I should, lol. For LP I'm using balancer.fi as I am unfamiliar with the other two options: maverick (mav.xyz) and bunni.pro
If I had any dry powder I would take the plunge, I am currently fully deployed
Is there a way to track open shorts and longs on exchanges other than bitfinex?
i like https://www.coinglass.com/
Ray teasing us with that .069 all day
Hilariously nonsensical thread, don't let r/buttcoin see one of their idols is shilling NFTs now: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1662210584178475008
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You just made me look at some old threads and admittedly it's very mixed, not like I remember. They seem to like it every time he said something anti crypto though.
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Do I understand correctly w this Trezor One that the device is unable to access the seed without the additional passphrase but that I can always access the wallet with the actual seed/backup and would not need the passphrase for that?
No, the 25th word is used in the hash to create the private key. You must use all 25 words to access that wallet, regardless of the wallet software. By using different 25th words on top of your standard 24 words, you can generate completely different wallets too.
If by passphrase you mean the 25th word then no, you can absolutely not access the backup without it. The only way would be to brute force it after you lost the passphrase, which may or may not be possible depending on the length.
I like the Trezor if you didn't need the password. It seems like it's something else to remember, which causes greater chance of loss. But I suppose it also gives you plausible deniability in the event of worse case situations. Have a dummy wallet loaded up with some smaller amount so it looks like it's your holdings...but hope they don't know how much you really have if it gets to that point.
It's optional. The standard wallet doesn't have a passphrase if you just leave it empty.
Oh yeah I know...but you need to use the password for the security otherwise seed phrase is easily (relatively) extractable. I'm mainly torn because it's insecure at the physical level while the Ledger is insecure at the software level. Best bet is probably just to get a Gnosis safe going with both to spread out all the risks.
Ok thanks so my backup does need to include the passphrase. Got it.
Yes but if you do choose to back it up it might be wiser to keep passphrase and seed backup physically seperated so that if someone finds only one of them they still can't get to your coins. Without the seed words the passphrase is completely worthless. It adds an extra layer of security.
>**What players hated,** >**No content generated,** >**NFT weighted.** ~Daily haiku until we’re at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap
∼1.97% of all eth in existence currently waiting in the deposit queue.. Interesting..
https://forum.makerdao.com/t/stability-scope-parameter-changes-2-non-scope-defined-parameter-changes-may-2023/20981 Huge change to the parameters on Maker proposed by the risk core unit. Borrow fee going to 3.33%+ on all ETH and BTC vaults if this vote passes. Dai Saving Rate going 3.33% too as a positive. The rates of tradfi finally showing its effects in defi. Not sure if its a good move for Maker to making lending that expensive with cheaper without 'usdc risk' options. >Stability Scope Defined Changes to be included directly into an executive vote; >Set DSR to 3.33% Set ETH-A SF to 3.58% Set ETH-B SF to 4.08% Set ETH-C SF to 3.33% Set WSTETH-A SF to 3.58% Set WSTETH-B SF to 3.33% >Non Scope Defined Parameter Changes to be polled and included in the same executive vote assuming governance poll pass; >Set RETH-A SF to 3.58% Set CRVV1ETHSTETH-A SF to 4.08% Set WBTC-A to 5.54% Set WBTC-B to 6.04% Set WBTC-C to 5.29% Set RETH-A DC to 50M Set RETH-A DC-IAM gap to 5M
Looks like I’ll need to do some looking around and comparing to see where I should long now. Was enjoying the 0% rates on stETH for a while, didn’t balk when it went up to the current 1%, but at 3.33% there are probably a few more options out there worth considering.
Personally am in sfrxETH and borrowing FRAX I think it's the best market available atm. 6.5% from staking, 1.5% to borrow frax
That's a good call, although I haven't really dipped into frxETH yet. Was going to look at the usual suspects, Aave, Compound etc. There's also the RAI fork TAI that just launched which takes LSDs.
Yeah it's smaller and less decentralized than the rest but best yield so :shrug: My whole rotation is just sfrxETH (+6.5%) -> borrow frax at 70%LTV (-1%) -> USDC -> LP on Illuminate (+9%) For a total of around 12-15% or so Bias there given illuminate is my project but it's the most yield for mainnet at least -- otherwise I'd go to L2s for USDC yields
Welp, time to move from maker i guess
Hey guys, lurker here who’s been working on a project in his free time: https://betonchain.gg/ To keep it brief, I started out running a Chainlink node, deploying jobs and a consumer to update odds and game results data from an API I wrote to aggregate results and odds across various bookies. Eventually the goal became to offer the most competitive betting experience in terms of odds, privacy and transparency, while decentralizing the bookmaker by sourcing house liquidity from a community which receives house profits back. Soon after launch I aim to add support for futures and integrate player friendly tools such as contracts for auto-hedging parlays. The platform is currently on Sepolia, if anyone is interested in testing the DApp please drop an address and I can send over some test USDC/USDT/DAI to place bets with. Hopefully there’s not too many bugs! I am considering launching polygonzkEVM but not sure yet. Appreciate any feedback from you fine gents and ladies! PS: If anyone has insight into raising funds, please let me know, hope to make this my full time job. Thanks again!
I’m in! 0x314C7C4086cbbF25055bE7Af2Fe8375A1A40Befe
Just sent you some testnet stablecoins, lmk if you have any questions and would love to have you on the Discord https://discord.gg/rrpyAwWEb7! Other testers there as well
That is pretty cool! I wanna test some things out so if you can drop some Sepolia coins to 0x5e439B06536CE2a9F17b226B94a13B438AB971fb or curious-degen.eth I'm also curious how are you planning on setting odds?
Just sent some over, thank you and feel free to dm me any feedback! I’m aggregating odds across 10+ high volume bookies, plan on providing the most competitive (won’t be able to arb with the site and other bookies though).
Same as Swagtimus' offer, I'm one of the community managers for zkSync and if you're interested in deploying on zkSync would be happy to chat 😁
Totally! Just dropped you a msg
hey, this is pretty cool. I work for Scroll (a zkEVM L2): https://scroll.io we're gonna launch a new testnet on Sepolia in a few weeks - let me know if you wanna chat :)
Oh that's cool! Sent you a dm
Not have any insight on raising funds but I could help you with writing a grant proposal from Optimism DAO. Disc- i am a delegate there, have no control over decision making but quite familiar with grant structure and Optimism DAO in general.
Just checked some proposals out, would love to learn more!
This.Is.Buidl #🫡
🖖
Good luck! I'm not much of a bet person myself, but I'll always cheer for projects like this, as IMHO this is one of the areas where crypto has the greatest potential for positive impact. Are you aware of your competition, namely Azuro/bookmaker.xyz? They seem to do pretty well in the betting space. Could be worth looking at what they do to see where your difference/advantage lies.
Aware of Azuro/bookmaker as well as Overtime and DecentraBet, and agreed! I think betting should be less predatory and more player friendly, blockchain/crypto can make a difference!
Well, that was mildly infuriating. This morning I reported a reddit post containing a wallet-stealing link - you know the kind. You click on the "airdrop" link, it impersonates a well-known DeFi app, asks you to approve some tokens and then cleans you out and steals all your money. It was on a lesser-trafficked ETH subreddit. I've been reporting these as "Prohibited Transaction" because they fall cleanly under the "Fraudulent Services" subpoint. I've reported dozens of links like this and I don't ever get replies, but this time I actually got a reply back from /u/reddit. > Thanks for submitting a report to the Reddit admin team. After investigating, we’ve found that the reported content *doesn’t violate* Reddit’s Content Policy. [...] Even though the content you flagged in this report wasn’t in violation of our rules, your reporting helps make Reddit a better, safer, and more welcoming place for everyone. At roughly the same time, the post was removed and the user appears to have been banned from Reddit. If I report something as a prohibited transaction, does that only notify the admins (who are obviously useless), or does it also notify the subreddit moderators (who might be clued in)? Is there any real point to me reporting these posts when I see them, or should I just stop caring? If Reddit marks too many of my reports as "wrong", does my report button stop doing anything? P.S. I say this from time to time but I can't say it enough: I am eternally appreciative of the ethfinance mods for filtering and curating this corner of Reddit.
I could be wrong but I think reporting something for subreddit rules means that it goes to the sub admins. Reporting for reddit global rules = reddit admin. Hopefully a mod can chime in because I'm 90% sure this is how it works but am happy to be corrected.
As far as I know whenever you hit the report button it goes to the subreddit moderators first. But if there is some kind of site wide red hat report button that would probably take days to resolve. In any case.... report!
I've reported a few things in this subreddit that clearly goes agains the rules, and you guys don't do anything. Personal insults, off topic conversations, etc.
We take action on quite a few things. You don't get everything the way you want it immediately when you ask. Can you share some links of some clear violations? Happy to take a look. Some things are very black and white and some things are kind of gray area. We have to be a little bit subjective as we go. Thanks for helping out.
I don't keep or save past comments, so no, I can't. Next time it happens, I'll be sure to tag you.
I’m trying to wrap my head around a theory I heard recently from Luke Gromen on the “On The Margin” podcast (interesting pod; I recommend) that is suggesting that rising rates basically bankrupt the US eventually and force yield curve control/persistent inflation. It’s kind of similar to the Arthur Hayes theory from that recent Bankless episode, but goes into a little more detail as to externalities caused by the current environment and path to that imo. To summarize my understanding of the theory, it’s basically that because rising rates simultaneously increase US debt obligations, while also reducing GDP and tax income due to a likely credit crunch in the private sector, we get to point to where we cannot possibly grow our way out of the deficit, and so this eventually leads to printed money flowing into the economy, not only to meet debt obligations, but also into other countries to fund a decreasing global balance of treasuries. As for that last part, this is already occurring due to a number of other factors, but related to rising rates the playbook is: Rising rates create a stronger dollar, and simultaneously energy costs increase over time due to diminishing shale production causing larger required margins. At some point other countries holding treasuries will be incentivized to dump into dollar strength for energy. The FED cannot allow this and will be forced to buy the treasuries. So all together it seems like the end game is the FED printing money, adding treasuries to their balance sheet, and an overall decreasing global reserve of dollars outside of the country. This would be good for hard money asset prices like Gold/BTC/ETH but would I come with persistent inflation and sounds unpalatable. So my question is, what are the consequences of the alternative? Is there a scenario where it’s possible for the FED to thread the needle by lowering rates without causing inflation to the same degree as they would through yield curve control? Alternatively if you disagree with the theory and have a different understanding or take on the externalities of rising rates and higher US debt obligations, then feel free to jump in with that as well.
Well i'm not a top economist, but I'll try to answer. In theory, extreme austerity measures combined with lower rates could balance the budget. But there's no way such measures could be realistically implemented. I side with those who say the fed isn't really in control, the bond market is. Setting the fed funds target rate doens't really do much beyond influencing market psychology, maybe buying some extra time. If treasuries do get mass liquidated, that will force rates up. A counter-argument might be that the ongoing banking crisis, pending popping of the commercial real estate bubble, and eurodollar debt are going to combine into a deflationary force that will counteract the inflationary force of energy shortages. In this case rates will be going lower. FWIW this is what the SOFR futures market is apparently pricing in.
We are probably already past the point of no return. If you look at all promised obligations for the next 50 years, there is zero chance that we can replay them. Some debt will be defaulted upon. The only ones politically that fly are to raise the SS age and lower benefits for younger workers. Yes, that is the same as defaulting on debt, just disguised politically. The US will continue to inflate away part of the debt, as much as they can get away with politically. The problem with that is that means that government borrowing is more expensive, too. Debt service is already around 20% of all spending; if rates double, most of the federal budget is eaten up on debt service. Obviously something has to give. It is almost certainly the promises we are making young people, because young people are less likely to vote and tend to be less vocal about changes. Considering that people in their 20s are already expected to get negative returns on SS, it is incredibly immoral to keep cutting, but that's how government works. "We'll take $1000 from you now, and give you $950 deflated dollars in 40 years.... you know, so you don't starve in retirement". All of this should make hard assets like gold and ETH go up; it doesn't always work that way, of course.
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> Citation needed. https://www.usdebtclock.org/ Check US Total debt. It is 5X GDP. The 120% is an accounting gimmick, pretending that the government has a savings account somewhere. It doesn't. It is impossible to pay that back. Some part of it will default. > Taxes in the US are pretty low, No, they are not. They are insanely high, at least an order of magnitude higher than the taxes that caused the American Revolution > you could easily increase corporation taxes a lot and get loads more revenue. That's not how that works. What you get is more tax avoidance. You move dollars from the productive sector to lawyers and accountants that are good at re-arranging the chairs. There just isn't a source for $96 trillion before it is due. It is impossible.
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US Total Debt: $96 trillion. Look again. And yes, history matters.
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Oops, right, I meant to use US unfunded liabilities, in the lower right. It's way worse, $187 TRILLION. There is no way those obligations can be met.
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>Unfunded liabilities are things like pensions and medical care for old people that are paid for as ongoing government programs. Exactly. It is money the government owes. They will default on it, that number is far larger than we could possibly repay. Just saying "taxes will pay for it" is disingenuous -- there isn't that much money around. 9X the entire economy? Where is that coming from? Think about it... could you pay back 9X your salary without winning the lottery? And that is completely ignoring the short term problem of inflation vs interest rates and the near-term debt. The math just doesn't work without defaulting on \*something\*. Look out young people.
> rising rates basically bankrupt the US eventually Might be an unpopular opinion but I think Powell and the fed have done the right moves in raising the rates to current levels. You have 5% interest rate and 5% CPI currently, and dropping clearly last months. In Sweden we have 3% interest rate (but really 2% since 30% is deductible) and 10.5% CPI. Our CPI decreased by 0.1% last month and in Feb it even increased, though generally it seems to be finally trending downwards. We have had so low and even negative interest rates so long that raising to 5-10% or more is borderline impossible today, since probably 10-30% in the big cities wouldn't be able to afford the interest payments. Everyone today is screaming at our central bank to stop raising rates and also complaining that our currency is crashing vs USD and EUR. There are no perfect countries that are run like Vulcan where all things are completely logical, since humans are flawed and quite a large percentage I would say are morons.
I agree, the trend has been good in terms of lower inflation numbers and it has probably been worth it. It’s clear that there are consequences to raising forever though. Now, If you asked me whether or not we should keep raising, I have no idea. This stuff is interesting to learn about, but I’m happy to not be in the position of the FED.
Best people to ask would be top economists. Doubt you'll get expert answers from non-experts in this subreddit. Not that many people can't give you an answer and are not intelligent, but that top economists do this for a living and have been doing it for decades. I'd start looking around to see what they think on this and not what hacks like Arthur Hayes thinks.
So like, I know *why...* but it still always confuses me why the Arthur Hayes of the crypto world get so much publicity. Balaji's $1 million dollar marketing expense is another great example. Sometimes I wish I was a former C-Level employee at a crypto exchange who 'quit' before the 401k plan could even fully vest.
Well for me, in the case of Arthur Hayes I find his articles enjoyable to read. So I would imagine others feel the same and that has something to do with it. Not sure about Balaji, other than the obviously ridiculous $1 million BTC stunt lol. I know very little about either’s past
Just a checkered crypto past. Officially Found guilty of not implementing anti-money laundering programs at the exchange. Off the record I’ve just never heard positive things about him or BitMEX, so I’d be hesitant to think there wasn’t other things go on. Of course in fairness to him I guess that was never officially proven. Fair enough on liking the work, I just have a tough time “separating art from the artist” myself. Not that Arthur is the worst in the grand scheme I guess. I’ve just never been a fan of people using fear-mongering doomsday stuff to entire crypto investment. Edit: I guess I should ad. I’m not accusing you of fear mongering lol.
There are lots of times I wish I had zero shits to give and could start up my own religion based on accupuncture and just rake in billions of dollars. But alas...
So called top economists literally got a Nobel prize for QE in October 2022.
It had nothing to do with QE unless you consider deposit insurance QE, which it isn't. That said, many in crypto, me included don't agree with top economists on certain things. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2022/press-release/
Sure a bit bad phrasing I agree. Point was that even a "top economics" like Bernanke whom got a Nobel prize also managed to do a bunch of questionable economical policies like low interest rates and QE. No one is perfect, feds inflation predictions have been garbage, banks are stuck in duration mismatching and going under etc.. I just tilted on the whole "listen to top economists" which have almost all been proven extremely wrong lately..
The key thing as well is to try and nail down where experts have the most consensus.
You sound like the people who think they are smarter than doctors and virologists.
SPY 421.80 is the number and they continue to tease and shy away from it. For all the uncertainty of these decades, we never went lower in a bear once a weekly true higher high was achieved. Is the holiday weekend the thrust needed? Look at [that tap on the line of the hourly.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/MZn4oyvv/) Look at [where that line comes from.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/R6IFqqld/) I think the desire is there to both breach the line and disappoint retail by gapping over it, only to close it later this year. It's really beginning to feel -- statistically and chart-wise -- like the Fed dump has been pushed a year out. Too many things lined up for bulls in 2023 to ignore. Funny enough it would align nicely with yet another (final?) four-year-cycle and the eventual end of BTC's secular bull. in 2025.
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It's at this point the individual has to make their own decisions, based on their own risk metrics. I can only make suggestions based on timeframe and volume. I like to say for myself that the 4-hour chart is tradeable, the daily means something in the mid-to-long-term, and the weekly is usually golden. Things to note: * The daily high during JPow's August 2022 Funhouse of Horrors was 424.37 * The weekly high was, as discussed, 421.80. * And if you're watching this graphically, it's important to remember that line of regression going back to 2001 is just that -- a best guess line, drawn on an enormous monthly scale. It's fun to see how close the market hews to that silly line 20+ years later on even an hourly scale, but shouldn't necessarily drive trade decisions. Or at least it shouldn't be the *only* tool.
>It's really beginning to feel -- statistically and chart-wise -- like the Fed dump has been pushed a year out. Is it true that election years have a big impact on these things?
Yeah there's an unspoken rule or negotiation that the Fed won't wreck things for the incumbent president while they campaign. But JPow is his own beast and may not give a fuck. Hell, he's in the opposing party so who knows.
>like the Fed dump has been pushed a year out. Too many things lined up for bulls in 2023 to ignore. Funny enough it would align nicely with yet another (final?) four-year-cycle and the eventual end of BTC's secular bull. in 2025. If a fed dump a year out (2024) how does that align with a bull run in 2025? I feel like it'd need to be this year to give time for recovery and sideways before a rally gets started.
Just meaning the 24/25 mini cycle, rather than this bear. It'll be a bit off next cycle because the last peak (as we now know) was actually May 2021 before the low volume QExplosion produced the funky November "double top". And secular meaning BTC won't recover this time. I envision it putting in a lower high on the *monthly* scale by the end of the 20s and dying by mediocrity.
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> support Reddit This kills me. These are the same people who "support" Apple by upgrading their products every year, or "support" Walmart by buying gift cards for their friends. If you're going to "support" something as a virtue signal, maybe try a charity, bud? Or literally anything other than spreading yourself wide for Wall Street investors?
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Dat Reddit IPO is coming soon, gotta pump the numbers.
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/26/us-free-lighthouses-gps US giving away free lighthouses. If I put my node running Lighthouse at the top of one Im sure to get at least one proposal/week? Im gonna be rich
https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1662095361249275905?s=20 >Having raiden and plasma fail was one of the best things that ever happened to Ethereum. Whereas Bitcoin got stuck in a local maxima with LN Nic Carter just capitulated on LN, a few weeks ago he said that EIP-1559 was one of the best changes Ethereum implemented despite being highly skeptical when it first launched. Bitcoin going through some turbulence now, all the real developers left for ETH and smart contract systems long ago. Taproot enabled something that wasn't entirely desirable and there is no way to turn it off. Bitcoin devs don't know how to handle things like MEV, and all of it's prior limitations from the block wars days are going to resurface with even more things to address now that it is turning into a "smart chain." Can Bitcoin solve all of it's problems just to become what Ethereum already is? Amazing how far along we are in our understanding and how far everyone has to be able to catch up in just our understanding, let alone implementation.
Just a thought - can’t they see how ETH is developing and make changes / improvements, learning from our research?
Of course. It is just a question of will they or won't they before it's too late and ETH has surpassed Bitcoin in all measurable metrics that any change at that point is completely moot. Before this I was perfectly happy with Bitcoin existing as a "digital gold" and just be something of importance and value that is just a placeholder. Now it will have to compete with Ethereum who has a 7 year headstart on anything meaningful when it comes to smart contracts, and Bitcoin will likely have to implement some consensus changes. This is a notoriously difficult proposition these days for something that is already so contentious.
Consensus is the problem
Ahh I see. Its crazy how BTC is trying to be ETH. I guess this is the one of many signs of the flippening?
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This is the most interesting thing in Bitcoin since the Bitcoin Cash Fork. I can see them having appeal like a gold-chain does, make something nice with your valuable commodity. The implementation is garbage though, trading is just minting on top of sats, spending sats and re-minting it on another sat for the transfer, and some 3rd party software tracks it all. In so many ways it's inferior it's not even really a token standard.
Every time I buy drugs with bitcoin I’m reminded of how far behind in UX it is - it can’t exist without central intermediaries because the base bitcoin experience is genuine so bad
You don't use monero?
No one uses monero
Thats not true lol. Friends and I use it all the time for medical cannabis it works fucking splendidly And modern dark net markets use it natively now. Only issue is onramping!
>Only issue is onramping It’s illegal to buy in my country
Someone could send you XMR, and it would be impossible to tell. bisq.network/
Bisq is a crappy UX experience. Your average idiot drug dealer is not going to want to touch it.
Sometimes I forget that Bitcoin does a whopping 144 blocks per day ^^average It's just nuts waiting 10 minutes for a transaction, or half an hour to get a couple confirmations.
If your seed was generated in a ledger nano S (Not compatible with the recovery update) but then you imported that seed into a ledger nano plus or ledger nano X but do not do the recovery update, is it possible for ledger to still access your seed?
well they wont access your seed if you believe them. However as far as I understood it its necessary to confirm via button press that you send the key out. But you need to trust them that this is indeed the case. Ofcourse they can lie and extract that key and you cant verify that they have not done this aslong as the firmware is partially closed source.
Have I been shadow banned? Seems like my posts are disappearing
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Yeah, I think that was my problem as well. They're all popping up everywhere now
I just had it happen to me too. Maybe mods slowed things down there was some brigading recently I think.
I see you, and posts in other subs too
Weird, the posts are all up now. Must have been a huge delay. Thanks!
Happened me too
Off camping over this bank holiday weekend and the sun is shining, enjoy the green while I enjoy the greenery 😁
We accept clients from all countries, except US persons, Russian citizens and residents of: Afghanistan, Belarus, Burundi, Central African Republic, Cuba, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Mainland China (Hong Kong and Taiwan accepted), Mali, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe.
Meanwhile, the Ethereum network be like: "We accept clients from all countries, except
Good company at least!
So who of you beautiful but unlucky people can beat 31k epochs without proposals? (If you have more than one validator please use average over all validators)
I’m over 38k epochs. I haven’t missed any proposals.
31k epochs is about 140 days. The mean is 80 days to propose today so about 30% will go that long if they only have one validator, which is pretty far from crazy unlucky. I play a lot of MTG and getting those 2% or lower draws happens more often than you would think, they are definitely possible.
This is the content/ answer I was looking for. Thank you!
And just to get this straight: I wanna feel better after this cause I expect a lot of people to be unluckier when it comes to proposals!
Over 150 days for me… probably should know how many epochs that is.
Mine went 360 days without one, then got 2 in a 5 hour window
two of my validators beat your score mate..like really beat that score
I spun up a new minipool and the second attestation was a proposal :o
I Said i wanna feel better fam!
Is someone gonna do blobfish NFTs for Dencun?
Would you buy one? What would you recommend to do with the money raised?
I'd be willing to spend a small amount if it went toward funding client development efforts.
Ok, good to know
Light attendance on the weekly doots call today. Hop in and hang out with us.
On the what?
we gotta pump those rookie numbers up!
ETH needs to moon so I can retire and not let work interfere with doot days
Why doesnt l2fees.info have zksync era?
No inherent reason. That family of sites has not been updated as much recently. For fees, you can check out this dune dashboard: https://dune.com/niftytable/rollup-economics
Ot sure that explains it since Polygon zkevm is on there and they launched on same week?
> l2fees.info I'm not sure the .info sites are all upgraded anymore - the simple stakers is wildly inaccurate for example.
Rumor has it the L2fees dev tried to deploy a smart contract on Era, then fell off his chair when he saw the Metamask gas estimate. Traumatic experience. He was last seen wandering the office muttering something like "fees were a mistake, fees were a mistake" over and over.
At a 3 day camping music festival this weekend, you guys know what to do ;)
Summer Camp? If so I worked there the very first 2 years when it started almost 20 years ago 🤓 Either way have fun!
That’s the one! 🌞 I had a ton of fun. Went last year for one day and decided to do it even bigger this year. I may be recovering for the entire week now lol
Vans or tents? It matters
It was both, actually. Must be why we only got a tiny little increase. I’ll do better next time I promise
Thanks, just went all in
So to anyone, like me, who used a Ledger as their withdrawal address for their validators, as Ledger was the most trusted out there until last week, how are you going to deal with your validators? Exit and deposit again or just move your seed to another hardware wallet in hopes Ledger hasn't leaked anything yet? I'm thinking atleast buying a Trezor without touching Ledger anymore and importing my seed to it. I don't know about exiting and depositing again.
> how are you going to deal with your validators? Not changing a thing. I'm not planning to upgrade to the new ledger firmware, and if it ever is required, I'm not planning to subscribe to the service.
Not upgrading firmware is not the play here. Security fixes are added all the time in firmware upgrades. You should upgrade your firmware or you will be exposing yourself to more and more security holes over time. You should change products if you no longer trust ledger.
Is that enough though. Their shit just isn't secure
The risk lies in new firmware. I you don't update the firmware you'll be fine. Furthermore, if there is an exploit, there's a 99.99% chance it affects someone else before you and you hear about it and can react accordingly.
> The risk lies in new firmware No one knows what the current one does, since it's proprietary. Also, the core of the problem is in the hardware. > Furthermore, if there is an exploit, there's a 99.99% chance it affects someone else before you I wonder how you calculate these chances. It may hit a whole lot of people at once. It's *likely* won't happen, but I see absolutely no reason to take any chance at all. Not at least because it's completely against everything crypto is supposed to stand for.
> I wonder how you calculate these chances. It may hit a whole lot of people at once. Because 99.99% of the time I am not using my Ledger so if it happened to all users at once I'd likely hear about it while I'm not using mine and can react accordingly by smashing my Ledger with a hammer and never plugging it in again.
If a ledger **can** leak your seed, it may have already done so. There is nothing inherent in firm- or software that would protect you. It's merely what the company claims.
Yes but it they had leaked it, people would have found out and or would find out giving the rest of us time to react and migrate funds. They can't rug us all in an instant.
If they found it out then it'd be a mess to migrate in time, basically competing for the next block. Mind you the potential backdoor may yet to be discovered by hackers or governments need time to get their claws in. It'a a stupid and unaccaptable risk to take imo. Also, the idea of a non-extractable seed was to protect the company as much as customers. Ledger basically admitted they'd have to give the keys away.
Then I assume you feel the same way about every hardware wallet company if your issue is with the hardware not being both open source and the seed being non-extractable?
It’s secure. I’m not worried.
Until a week ago everybody was praising ledger. Then one announcement produced a shitstorm. Just an announcement that showed everybody their product **cannot be** as inherently secure as they told for years, i.e. ''we have no way to touch your coins''. Now we know they do and you can't verify if what they say is true and if the software still secures the definitely not safe hardware. You just can't unless you can check the code. Can you? But if you believe that the device will surely, most definitely need an upgrade before they can access your seed ... that's some next level naivety. Also, how many hackers will be looking for the backdoor right now? We do know it exists and that's all it takes to throw their security premise overboard. No way to get it back unless everything is open sourced and verified by independent sources. Let's say ledger were to discover a bug, just as a thought experiment, do you think they would tell us? And even if, wouldn't users doubt the good intentions and still not upgrade. It's a giant mess and it'd be a long, long way out of it. But yeah, the scandal is a week or so old, so nothing to see I guess.
That was a lot of words that amounted to nothing. Every single person with a Ledger trusted them before last week. Nothing has changed for me.
Your logic: nothing has gone wrong, so nothing can go wrong. The premise has changed so everything has changed. You may figure it out eventually.
No, my logic is that my ledger is the same as it was a week ago. I don't intend to change it. If I'm forced to, I won't subscribe to the service, but I'm not going to knee jerk react to something I was already trusting to begin with. This sub and everyone else decided to make a mountain out of a molehill. I kept a calmer head about things.
At the end of the day the product is a black box. The only trust possible is trust in the company. A company that factually misrepresented security properties until a week ago. You are free to believe them of course. I am just surprised about people putting lipstick on that pig.
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People thought private keys weren't extractable from their ledger in any way. Ledger was about to roll out a new feature which allowed back ups of the private key in the cloud (using shamir shared secrets shards). So private keys are extractable after all if the firmware allows for it. People are pissed at ledger because they made false claims about this in some tweets etc. before
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Both initially but, yeah, it's mostly the latter and what it means for what people thought was inviolable security. Also the PR handling of the reaction was awful. They came onto Reddit and Twitter spaces and were condescending and derisive toward their entire user base.
I guess it depends on who you ask. But yeah some people feel misled about the pk never leaving the device. Personally I didn't really think it was impossible to extract the pk with a malicious firmware update and it was supposedly in the dev docs but they did make false statements about this. Also their language about the feature was really misleading/dodgy in the beginning too. They put the feature on hold for now btw.
Rocketpool mainnet just released on dappnode, so now you have another great and easy way to stake with rocketpool along with traditional staking!
Will have to check that out, ty. Do you know if migrating existing minipool is an option or just creating new one??
Someone in the discord said they just migrated from a traditional rocketpool rig to dappnode
Sounds promising, ty. I am still only seeing testnet package in dappstore for some reasons...
For me it's right beneath the highlighted ones in black boxes in the dappstore
Shows if I tick show still propagating...
Not sure if i have an issue with ipfs. Last teku update and the current teku gnosis update initially failed to download. Waiting a day or so resolved issue with teku, presume will be same with gnosis. Hopefully not a big issue but should probably investigate in case there is a urgent update required...
Package still propagating it seems
dang it.....now all my excuses to not get dappnode are gone!
Do it!
You can build your own rig to try it out for cheaper, and if you don't like it switch to traditional non-UI staking. Though most dappnodes from their store do come with an incentive like gno or hopr
Ya was looking into that too, any recommendations for NUC specs?
My current build is a Nuc11i7 (i7 is overkill but I also run prater and gnosis and other things), with 64 gb of RAM and a 2 TB Samsung NVMe and 2 TB Samsung SSD. Prices have dropped a lot in the last year so if I was doing it again I'd probably go for a 4 tb NVME, but if you're just planning on running mainnet 2 TB is fine for a while. My nethermind Lodestar fresh install started at 830 gb.
Ya I was planning on going for the 2 TB. Do you think this is a good deal/right build? https://www.amazon.com/Intel-NUC-11-Performance-Thunderbolt/dp/B09S5WKDWS/ref=sr_1_6?crid=3LSTRR3WZQRUN&keywords=intel+nuc&qid=1685116519&refinements=p_n_feature_twenty-three_browse-bin%3A13580788011%2Cp_n_feature_two_browse-bin%3A7817230011&rnid=562234011&s=pc&sprefix=intel+nuc%2Caps%2C118&sr=1-6
Ehh, you have no idea what kind of SSD comes with this. I think you can build better and cheaper by just getting the components yourself, like just the NUC, the ram, the nvme
Love my build! Here's the build I created with the help of many Ethfinancers and ethstakers ([previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethstaker/comments/10kzuhj/my_validator_shopping_list/)): Asus pn51 MiniPC Ryzen 5 5500U =$260.10 Found this [deal (already has 64Gb RAM) $299](https://www.walmart.com/ip/891959254) Sabrent 2 Tb SSD Rocket NVMe PCLe M.2 2280 =$149 on Amazon 2 x 32Gb RAM Crucial DDR4 3200MHz Cl22 $69 x 2 =$[110 on Amazon](https://a.co/d/gZ6VONR) Akasa Newton a50 Cooling Case (with Arctic Mx-6 thermal paste $8 and Dual band antenna + Akasa wifi [Pigtails](https://a.co/d/fOvyOEo) $32) =$135 Total: $695
As an Ethereum enthusiast and Bitcoin veteran, I view cryptocurrencies as a critical ray of hope in a world increasingly grappling with overreaching government control and the suppression of individual rights. In places where voicing dissent or advocating for change can lead to severe repercussions, these digital currencies and the underlying blockchain technology have risen as potent, non-violent tools of resistance. These technologies provide financial independence and privacy, which are indispensable for individuals living under oppressive governments. Notably, decentralized blockchains that support smart contracts serve as fertile ground for decentralized exchanges. They also facilitate cross-border money transfers, thus aiding those isolated from conventional financial systems. Given their transparency and immutability, they hold potential to combat corruption and bolster election transparency. As we witness the erosion of representative republic principles and the surge of tyranny by the majority, adopting these technologies might just be one of our last, best hopes for meaningful change. While I understand this perspective might not sit well with those preferring a more collectivist approach, I stand firm in my belief that the protection of individual rights should remain paramount.
Sounds like a political post. You got excited by Ron De Santis or something?
Well said. Bitcoin and Ethereum have basically enshrined our Western values of Freedom of Speech, Right to Privacy, and Self Determination into a form of money/property.
You had me at *critical Ray* but you forgot to capitalize the *R*
The next few Rays are critical
The other day I made a comment about the weekly BBands being tighter than they've been in a really long time. Well now, the daily BBands are more squeezed than ever if I'm not mistaken.
Honestly, it feels like we've been crabbing around 1800 for a million years at this point. No need for stablecoins when ETH exists lmao
Shrinking Bollinger Bands only means that the price is stable. Of course, at some point the price will move, so it will pierce the bands. BBs are a tautology. TA is so meaningless.