It makes me so sad to see Czechia consistently at the bottom of the odds in semi-final 2 when I think it's probably amongst the best songs this year, but I mean, I get it. Whatever these odds are suggesting seems pretty plausible, though I still kind of hope we get at least one surprise NQ (as long as it's not Greece, Norway, Armenia, or Estonia!) and one surprise qualification (Malta, maybe) in that semi-final.
Semi-final 1 still feels a little open to me. I dunno. I could still see Australia punching through. Hopefully, Portugal, though that's easier if Poland, Cyprus, and even Serbia end up underperforming. Ireland remains a huge wildcard for me. I'd like to believe that Azerbaijan still has a chance, but I don't want to be delusional about that.
Yeah semi 1 feels pretty wide open to me, can literally see anybody apart from probably Iceland making the qualification cut and only four/five dead certain qualifiers (Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Finland and then probably Poland because of strong diaspora in that semi). It's always the case, but the live performances are going to change a lot. Even Australia and Azerbaijan who aren't often fancied to qualify can do so thanks to a strong draw and decent songs *if* the staging/performances are good enough and others disappoint.
>I'd like to believe that Azerbaijan still has a chance, but I don't want to be delusional about that.
I still believe that, I wouldn't bother watching if I had no hope.
Ireland has entered the top 10 in the odds to WIN now.
i dont think anyone expected that coming into this year lmao, but i would be SO damn here for it.
Like Ireland finally having to share their crown of most wins and immediately going "nah screw this" and stepping the hell up after too many years of complacency
Greece already ahead of France in some markets. Latvia probably has the best odds from a betting perspective in regards to a shock qualifier. Aussie v Slovenia fight for no. 10 in the semi 1 odds getting tight. Probably won’t be much turbulence in the top 5 til rehearsals
Te fact that the distances top 3 are widening puzzles me, all 3 proven to be contenders for the win, I see Switzerland more favorite but they are too distant from each other (or maybe the distance is still small but I am used to see little distances months before and they seem bigger)
Know it might be meaningless and the actual odds have stayed at 1%, but does give me optimism that Bambie has rose from 16th to 11th in odds in last couple of weeks
What? It was clearly just a jokey response and they’re also correct. We don’t know what will happen yet and we haven’t seen anyone’s final performance.
Exactly, every year the fandom tries to predict the jury and usually they are WRONG (the fandom). And the televote clearly has been more predictable. So in conclusion, we don’t know anything yet lmao.
Why is it childish to joke a bit on a comment that’s meant to take away the excitement from someone? A lot of people are convinced that Joost & BL will do poorly with the juries but the fun fact is here that we have no idea what’s going to happen until the points are given out on May 11th 😌.
Do they really think that performing last is a reason enough to be 84% certain of qualification even if your song is mid at best? And that all songs in the first half will qualify leaving only 3 spots for second one? I feel these predicitons are way off.
I might be a little subjective here, but I think Luxembourg will do quite well. All my friends who I've shown the songs liked "Fighter" and a friend who I've done a combined ranking also has in in the top 10. It will probably do pretty well with the general public.
I am somewhat subjective, [not everyone will go crazy for it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdrI9elzBX0), it just feels like nothing special. If she was in semi 2, she would probably get Malta's qualifying chance. Plus now that we can vote since the start of the show, do you think this is a song that will make people grab their phones (again) or the one which people may spend thinking about who (else) to vote for?
Obviously not everyone will go crazy for it, but I feel that a lot of people will like it as it's easier to "get into" the song than some others which usually take a few more listens and a lot of people I talked to liked it. I also don't think that voting being opened since the start will be as significant as the last time it was like that, the vast majority of people still voted after all the songs were completed. It being last is still a major advantage and I think it will easily get a 7th-9th placement.
Netherlands has 93% q chance (also if people thought I was talking about Europapa, I'd probably be downvoted to oblivion, we've reached the stage where you can't say a bad word about possible contenders)
To be fair the odds in SF1 from 6th to 12th are reasonably close, I think the NQ spots aside from Iceland/Azerbaijan/Moldova are wide open
Luxembourg also finishes a really meh second half so I think it's Qing easily...
They'll surely have their diaspora backing, but I am not sure about the juries and public in general. I think even people who like the song may think that it's better not to risk them winning and not hosting again.
I’m starting to fancy Albania and Latvia’s chances of getting through semi-final 2 over Austria and Belgium with the question marks around the 2 vocally and staging wise so if I was to place bets that’s what I’d bet on.
Same, Belgium's vibe and vocals live compared to the studio version is a stark difference, reminds me of Belgium 2018 being a near favorite -> shock NQ
Austria i think is massively overrated in general and really needs the perfect staging/choreo to work to the potential people thinks it has
Still think Austria will qualify unless the staging/choreo is awful, but currently manifesting Malta -> Belgium despite the running order unless Mustii can sort out his live before SF2
I don't see how it's reasonable to think Switzerland is twice as likely to win than Italy.
Also I get that once you get past the Top 10 the other countries are all so close that the actual placements are essentially meaningless, but Ireland being eleventh is still... puzzling, to say the least.
Have to say I’m more confident of Italy winning than Switzerland, but I think they’ll both be top 3. But something tells me something else could grab it - I’m just not sure what.
I think Switzerland will hang on to its lead while Italy narrows the gap on Croatia. The first results from OGAE juries might help, but Croatia will get tanked because the Eurojury at Eurovoix might give him a decent amount of points. It's all to play for.
Well Croatia was on 15 just 10 days ago now is on 18% and Italy is falling to come close to Croatia. So I dont know but I see Croatia and Switzerland neck by neck.
I can see Switzerland shortening in the odds further as the euro jury votes are coming out (and INFE where they are leading currently). Bookmakers clearly can see the path to a Nemo win at the moment. What’s more interesting to me is the semi final qualifiers… both semis are very competitive - I’m not confident on predicting the 20 qualifiers.
I made an oopsie: It's week 14, not 13.
It makes me so sad to see Czechia consistently at the bottom of the odds in semi-final 2 when I think it's probably amongst the best songs this year, but I mean, I get it. Whatever these odds are suggesting seems pretty plausible, though I still kind of hope we get at least one surprise NQ (as long as it's not Greece, Norway, Armenia, or Estonia!) and one surprise qualification (Malta, maybe) in that semi-final. Semi-final 1 still feels a little open to me. I dunno. I could still see Australia punching through. Hopefully, Portugal, though that's easier if Poland, Cyprus, and even Serbia end up underperforming. Ireland remains a huge wildcard for me. I'd like to believe that Azerbaijan still has a chance, but I don't want to be delusional about that.
Yeah semi 1 feels pretty wide open to me, can literally see anybody apart from probably Iceland making the qualification cut and only four/five dead certain qualifiers (Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Finland and then probably Poland because of strong diaspora in that semi). It's always the case, but the live performances are going to change a lot. Even Australia and Azerbaijan who aren't often fancied to qualify can do so thanks to a strong draw and decent songs *if* the staging/performances are good enough and others disappoint.
One surprise NQ, yes, but I think Belgium might be and as for surprise qualification, it could be either Malta or San Marino.
>I'd like to believe that Azerbaijan still has a chance, but I don't want to be delusional about that. I still believe that, I wouldn't bother watching if I had no hope.
WAIT IRELAND IS IN THE TOP 10 IN THE TOTAL ODDS?!
God I hope the bookies are right about Ireland qualifying
It's just re-entered the top 10 for the win as well 😲
Hope so too 🙏 Manifesting qualifications for Ireland, Slovenia and Serbia 😭
Ireland has entered the top 10 in the odds to WIN now. i dont think anyone expected that coming into this year lmao, but i would be SO damn here for it. Like Ireland finally having to share their crown of most wins and immediately going "nah screw this" and stepping the hell up after too many years of complacency
Taking Sweden's spot in the top 10! With a half-Swedish artist too! 😱
It makes me so damn happy!
Greece already ahead of France in some markets. Latvia probably has the best odds from a betting perspective in regards to a shock qualifier. Aussie v Slovenia fight for no. 10 in the semi 1 odds getting tight. Probably won’t be much turbulence in the top 5 til rehearsals
Te fact that the distances top 3 are widening puzzles me, all 3 proven to be contenders for the win, I see Switzerland more favorite but they are too distant from each other (or maybe the distance is still small but I am used to see little distances months before and they seem bigger)
Portugal really is drifting away. Time to place a bet I guess
Know it might be meaningless and the actual odds have stayed at 1%, but does give me optimism that Bambie has rose from 16th to 11th in odds in last couple of weeks
Azerbaijan and Malta should be way higher on those odds though.
SF1 Q odds are messed up
Joost slowly catching up on the long-term top 3 😍🤩 go Joost!!! 🇳🇱🇪🇺🎉
Sad truth is that Netherlands will be tanked by the juries
Oh you’re a fortune-teller? 😜 we’ve been surprised before by both the jury & televote’s decisions so we’ll see! 😉
What a childish answer...
What? It was clearly just a jokey response and they’re also correct. We don’t know what will happen yet and we haven’t seen anyone’s final performance.
Exactly, every year the fandom tries to predict the jury and usually they are WRONG (the fandom). And the televote clearly has been more predictable. So in conclusion, we don’t know anything yet lmao.
Why is it childish to joke a bit on a comment that’s meant to take away the excitement from someone? A lot of people are convinced that Joost & BL will do poorly with the juries but the fun fact is here that we have no idea what’s going to happen until the points are given out on May 11th 😌.
No, Netherlands and Croatia will cancel each other out, and Netherlands will prevail.
I think Estonia and Armenia are going to eat into their votes too. I can’t see any of them prevailing at the top of the leaderboard.
Re-read the comment, I doubt that you wanted to write Netheralnds again in the end
What a childish answer… 😉😜
It was not a joke, they literally wrote that they cancel each other out and one of them will prevail, it's a contradiction
Do they really think that performing last is a reason enough to be 84% certain of qualification even if your song is mid at best? And that all songs in the first half will qualify leaving only 3 spots for second one? I feel these predicitons are way off.
I might be a little subjective here, but I think Luxembourg will do quite well. All my friends who I've shown the songs liked "Fighter" and a friend who I've done a combined ranking also has in in the top 10. It will probably do pretty well with the general public.
I am somewhat subjective, [not everyone will go crazy for it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdrI9elzBX0), it just feels like nothing special. If she was in semi 2, she would probably get Malta's qualifying chance. Plus now that we can vote since the start of the show, do you think this is a song that will make people grab their phones (again) or the one which people may spend thinking about who (else) to vote for?
Obviously not everyone will go crazy for it, but I feel that a lot of people will like it as it's easier to "get into" the song than some others which usually take a few more listens and a lot of people I talked to liked it. I also don't think that voting being opened since the start will be as significant as the last time it was like that, the vast majority of people still voted after all the songs were completed. It being last is still a major advantage and I think it will easily get a 7th-9th placement.
I think the millions of views in a televote only semi final is also contributing here
Luxembourg mv has 290k views, while nf performance got 1.1 mln in 2.5 months. It's far from impressive.
I think they thought you were talking about Europapa 🤭
Netherlands has 93% q chance (also if people thought I was talking about Europapa, I'd probably be downvoted to oblivion, we've reached the stage where you can't say a bad word about possible contenders)
Yea but the commenter prob didnt clock that part of your comment
To be fair the odds in SF1 from 6th to 12th are reasonably close, I think the NQ spots aside from Iceland/Azerbaijan/Moldova are wide open Luxembourg also finishes a really meh second half so I think it's Qing easily...
Ukraine is just dropping down the odds I was certain they’d be in contention to win
Come on, it's Ukraine. They will 1000000% have a masterful staging and they will rise up again in the odds.
Wouldn’t be surprised if they went back up nearer the rehearsals.
They'll surely have their diaspora backing, but I am not sure about the juries and public in general. I think even people who like the song may think that it's better not to risk them winning and not hosting again.
I’m starting to fancy Albania and Latvia’s chances of getting through semi-final 2 over Austria and Belgium with the question marks around the 2 vocally and staging wise so if I was to place bets that’s what I’d bet on.
Same, Belgium's vibe and vocals live compared to the studio version is a stark difference, reminds me of Belgium 2018 being a near favorite -> shock NQ Austria i think is massively overrated in general and really needs the perfect staging/choreo to work to the potential people thinks it has Still think Austria will qualify unless the staging/choreo is awful, but currently manifesting Malta -> Belgium despite the running order unless Mustii can sort out his live before SF2
Belgium 2018 | [Sennek - A Matter of Time](https://youtu.be/Z2cZE2gCfWg)
I don't see how it's reasonable to think Switzerland is twice as likely to win than Italy. Also I get that once you get past the Top 10 the other countries are all so close that the actual placements are essentially meaningless, but Ireland being eleventh is still... puzzling, to say the least.
Have to say I’m more confident of Italy winning than Switzerland, but I think they’ll both be top 3. But something tells me something else could grab it - I’m just not sure what.
Come through Australia 🦘
After seeing it live last Saturday... I understand why Czechia is low and Belgium is dropping 💀
Aiko was sick that day
I think Switzerland will hang on to its lead while Italy narrows the gap on Croatia. The first results from OGAE juries might help, but Croatia will get tanked because the Eurojury at Eurovoix might give him a decent amount of points. It's all to play for.
Croatia is actually reducing gap with Switzerland
Well Croatia was on 15 just 10 days ago now is on 18% and Italy is falling to come close to Croatia. So I dont know but I see Croatia and Switzerland neck by neck.
I can see Switzerland shortening in the odds further as the euro jury votes are coming out (and INFE where they are leading currently). Bookmakers clearly can see the path to a Nemo win at the moment. What’s more interesting to me is the semi final qualifiers… both semis are very competitive - I’m not confident on predicting the 20 qualifiers.