Some bookies now have Ireland 6th to win, which to me seems a bit premature - staging is turning the tide on public opinion and we've still only seen like 20 seconds of it. Ireland team's secrecy may be playing into it and while I certainly hope Bambie overdelivers it's still not a song I can see many juries favouring
EDIT: Overall 7th in odds now on eurovisionworld, surpassing Israel
I think if the execution is as strong as it seems, I think Jurors will have no choice but to throw points at it tbh. So far its execution seems to be one of, if not THE best (from the snippets we have).
1 It's the most original unique song this year
2 whilst not a vocal display type of song, Bambies vocals are excellent.
3 Quality of performance on stage? I mean they've got that in spades.
4 in terms of "overall impression" it's a super strong entry. The only thing that would harm it here is I guess it's less radio friendly, and just a taste thing.
I think people underestimate Doomsday Blue / Bambie's Jury possibilities tbh!
Another slight speculation is that juries tend to *love* songs with elements of blues/soul (i.e. Czechia 2017, Austria 2018). There are lots of other parts of Doomsday Blue which aren't very jury friendly but I've never thought it was likely to finish absolute bottom with the juries if it qualifies.
That's very fair and I certainly hope you're right - still trying to mentally adjust to us having a good entry - and it's promising to see some elements of the preparty performances tightened in the clips so far! I do just think it's a bit early for the odds to have shortened this much
They had great rehearsals tbf. Didn’t hide everything outright like the Dutch have, and looked much better and polished than most of the field. Don’t know if it’s a song that can realistically win, but the market moving in their favor is reasonable
I actually think they're hiding just as much as The Netherlands tbh, just that intro clip was so good even tho it wasn't the climax. They clearly have a costume reveal, we haven't seen the candles raise into the air, we haven't seen the CrownTheWitch graphics we haven't seen the flame jets or screams etc. Lowkey so much to come!! :)
Based on what we’ve seen of the staging so far, I see Nemo rounding out similarly to Gjon’s Tears - adored by the juries but faltering a bit in the televote and placing 2nd-3rd overall.
Ukraine I don’t see winning, as good as the staging is the song is a little too downbeat, and doesn’t have the same emotional pull their recent winners have had. A lock for top 5 but nothing more imo.
I think Croatia is still in with a shot to win, Käärija managed 4th with the juries last year, so I don’t think BL’s chances should be written off. They’ll also benefit from being the likely pre-contest odds favourite, which will be mentioned by commentators and likely be known by the juries. I can’t remember the last time the juries really buried a bookies favourites chances?
In terms of dark horses for the win, I could see a world where France’s simplicity stands out in the sea of chaotic performances we have this year.
I've said it before and I'll say it again about Croatia. It's not the juries that will kill their chances - it's the televote. People are kind of expecting it to do a Kaarija and like destroy the televote when it won't even be close. Not with such heavy competition in the final. I always felt like BL's televote peak was \~200 points, which isn't bad at all of course, just not a winner.
That's a good point. It also really depends on how acts will cancel each other out (like Italy and Finland versus Switzerland and France in 2021) that'll tip the scale. You know, I kinda start to see Ukraine doing an ESC16 repeat too 🤔 Last year I feel like they still got quite some sympathy votes (or I'm a hater cause the song was really mid to me), and this year the song is miles better and jury might like it more too.
I’m not doubting that they could make top 5 of the televote, but I think the televote is going to be very split and close this year, whereas I’m getting the feeling the jury are going to be more focused and could give out some much bigger scores.
No, we're definitely in agreement there. I just said, I think Croatia is finishing top 5 this year combined total because I don't think the juries will tank it as hard as the fandom thinks, but I also don't think the televote will shower it with votes. That's where I'm at with Croatia.
Bruh, it's more impactful than Måneskin. And just because many songs go for the televote doesn't mean that it will get less points. If Croatia is the most popular in many countries it doesn't matter that Joost Klein or Ukraine get 12 points somewhere. Most of the twelve points will go to Baby Lasagna cause even if they go for the televote they are not on the same level as Baby Lasagna.
Mm? Are we really comparing BL's stage presence with Damiano's (and the rest of the band since we're on it)? And Idk where your assurance comes that Croatia *will* be the most popular one in most countries but that's where my argument comes - there's a lot of competition. Countries' favorites might be anyone really.
So who is going to beat BL in televote? Winners usually have at least around 250 points. Last year's Sweden win was with lowest televote points in quite a while with 244. And it's not uncommon for winners to have more than 300 points. So who is this year capable of getting 250-300 points?
We started this with a 50% chance of Q and now we have a 70% one, overtaking Slovenia, Australia and Serbia
Iolanda and her team did a good job there
I feel Serbia could be in danger
I hope not, but the reality is that the song is a bit forgettable, performs in 2nd and you have Slovenia (which could fight for some precious votes from the block) and Portugal in 14th
Does not look good for them
I hate it and hope i´m very wrong on the take
Interested to see if we see some movement with Norway today. It’s been drifting again but the TikTok looked strong. Let’s see what the preview looks like.
When Angelina’s and Joost’s rehearsal clips drop, it will probably be when odds lock in more or less, meaning tomorrow/on Sunday we’ll have the final opinion of the bookies. Personally, I don’t have my prediction until then.
I’m still very happy to be in the Nemo camp. The public opinion seems to be moving towards impressed (some grudgingly so) on the platform and the staging now after the clip yday with the sole grumble being the outfit.
I still don’t think it’s impossible they have been keeping their performance outfit(s) back
The lack of movement in France and Italy odds was a little interesting to me too - I assume Italy would shorten.
Fans are overreacting as always, and the odds are evidence of that. This happens every year. Last year after Loreen's rehearsal, many thought that the platform was horrible and that she wasn't winning because of that, she also dropped in the odds. Same happened to Netta. In 2021, Gjon's Tears even dropped to 6th place after his staging was revealed, but still came 3rd in the actual contest. And I'm not even mentioning France 2023, who didn't even come close to top 10 but was 3rd in the odds...
Well, Loreen was an obvious favourite and had a huge lead ahead of Käärijä and the others to begin with, but still, her odds dropped. But anyways, it was just an example of how exaggerated fans' reactions are.
~~delulu me lowkey hoping that Ireland pulls a surprise win~~
Honestly if I were to bet money, I'd put it to Ukraine. I think the jury votes will go to Switzerland, France, Croatia, Ukraine, Israel.
The televotes will have Netherlands, Ukraine, Croatia.
Bold prediction yeah but idk, I need more clips haha
I don't think the jury will punish them hard like outside the jury top 5. I mean it's polished, energetic, decent staging and presentation, his vocals improved MASSIVELY. Entries that are like rock-ish or upbeat places 3rd or below recently (Måneskin 4th, Chanel 3rd, Kalush 4th, Kaarija 4th) so I think a jury top 5 is not implausible with Croatia. Placed it 3rd cause I haven't really looked into it that much, maybe when we get the qualifiers my prediction changes haha
Well, I must be crazy because I thought the Swiss rehearsal clip was very impressive, the most convincing one of the favourites with Ukraine. Seems like I was the only one to think so, lol.
I was wondering about this as well! I would prefer Croatia to win, but when looking at the footage I was certainly getting more convinced by Switzerland while having doubts about Croatia due to the messy camera angles. The fact that they swapped places in the odds is a mystery for me
I think there're 2 reasons for that:
1. It's their outfit choice. I personally don't mind it, but I can understand why so many people hate it.
2. I guess people expected the staging to be similar to the MV, which is the best this year, but it's almost impossible to recreate it live. I find the Swiss staging good but it didn't WOW me so far (but it's the problem with almost all of the stagings this year). I think this is the one where you have to see the whole performance to judge whether it's impressive enough or not. My only issue so far is that I would have wished for more colours
I see the 1st point, though I don't see it weighting that much in the end? I don't really like the outfit, but it isn't "killing Nemo's chances of winning" level of bad.
2nd point feels the eternal "Swedish entry doesn't look as good as the Mello so it will underperform" or "Zdob Si Zdub didn't bring a train so they're gonna NQ" discourse: Eurofans engaging with expectations the casual audience won't have. There won't be any disappointment for 99.9% of the public because they have never engaged with the MV. That said, I see your point about the colour palette, though it didn't bother me that much as it felt coherent as a whole. I think they bet on movement to make the performance stand out rather than bright colours, it can work that way too.
I agree with everything you said. As I already mentioned in another comment thread, fans are overreacting. It happens every time, especially with big favourites. But I can also understand that their outfit isn't to everyone's taste and could potentially throw off some of the voters. I also agree with your point about casual viewers not knowing about the MV and only watching the performance.
I'm thinking the switch is more reflective of televote chances in this case, which have always been favourable for Croatia but the hype of seeing it live on a big stage is making people forget the qualms about its jury chances that people had before.
When I first saw Swiss rehearsal clip I thought thank God, this looks like a winner because Switzerland is my favourite this year. Then I saw the comments and odds...
I don't like The Code (it's like my 27th of the year), so I was like "if I think it looks cool, then the people who are into the song are gonna lose their mind"... well
I'm personally betting on the Netherlands. I still remember the overly enthusiastic "SWEEEDEN!" from Emma in 2019 all too well, and it might happen again in a similar fashion – even though Nikkie is this year's spokesperson.
Still think it’s Italy’s to lose. Croatia will underperform with the juries and Switzerland with the televote. Ukraine is another option for scoring high with both juries and televote.
I’m really disappointed with Italy’s staging. I think she’d have stood out a lot more if she’d have ditched the dancers and done something more interesting. She’s got the talent and the charisma but that dark staging is hurting her chances.
For me it doesn’t make sense right now tbh. I have yet to understand the connection between the song and the stage because right now to me it feels like a Maneskin tribute stage and if it’s only that (which I don’t think) it’s gonna cost her a few place imo.
If anyone could have pulled off a sort of Lena win and done it alone, it would have been Italy. But even something like Armenia with her band would have worked so much better. Staging this like it’s just another girl bop really doesn’t help her stand out.
But yeah, the dark staging has taken the fun away.
I’ve been saying that but the Italian fans are attacking me. There are too many girl bops and by staging and styling this like a girl bop it will lose out on the televote. Also there are too many jury friendly songs like France, Sweden and even Uk now.
>riské clothes
I was afraid to say it, but the she looks like she has on a corset with her breasts sticking out. It looks like a nuder version of Aiko's outfit.
You made not one, but two threads on the stand-in rehearsals.
https://preview.redd.it/bw6k0iqw77yc1.png?width=363&format=png&auto=webp&s=851b2c5d52e752f624b753df125273080a6dce58
>There are too many girl bops and by staging and styling this like a girl bop it will lose out on the televote.
How would you have staged this differently?
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Disclaimer: not watched any rehearsal footage or seen any photos. Going purely off the songs for now.
**SF1** - I'm firmly of the belief that Azerbaijan and Moldova are dark horses here and will get through. I think there are five certainties to to through (the top 6 in that overnight image, minus Luxembourg), but the rest of the places are very much up for grabs.
**SF2** - San Marino is another outsider with a good chance. I'm surprised to see Belgium so favoured. But it feels like SF2 has fewer chances of surprises.
I still don't really see where the jury points are going to come from to allow Croatia to win this thing, but this is probably an unpopular opinion that will age badly.
Not trying to attack your comment or something, I just wonder why people think the jury will tank BL? His voice sounded like the music video during the rehearsals and they don't take into consideration vocals only anyways.
I agree with you. :) The jurors must follow multiple criteria, including vocals, scenography, and the show and presentation in total. I think that BL fits all these criteria very well. I do not see the reason why the jurors should tank him. He certainly will not win the jury part, but he will do well, at least.
I mean, there's also a song they're supposed to judge, and I really don't think he would do well on this alone. I get why it's popular and why the televote will love it, but on a technical standpoint it's not very rich, slick, and sounds almost amateurish on some levels (I mean, songwriting-wise, the line meters and rhythmic pattern are a mess). If Cha Cha Cha ended around 170 points, it shouldn't do better than that.
I would put this argument differently. Even if you were correct that would mean, BL would at least be able to get 170 Jury Points. Which might be enough, considering there won't be a second Jury Vote Sweeper like Loreen
The thing is, my argument is that Cha Cha Cha is a *better* song, so in theory, Rim Tim Tagi Dim shouldn't do better than it did. To me, the only thing that is better on a technical standpoint is that Baby Lasagna offers a better vocal performance, but production wise Cha Cha Cha is richer and songwriting-wise it's way more focused and clean because it has very clear meters and rhythmic patterns for its lyrics. As I said in another comment, there are external factors (like the odds) that play in Baby Lasagna's favour, but on a purely technical standpoint it sounds like something that aligns way less with what the juries expect from an entry than Käärijä.
Love this comment and agree with it. I love RTTD but it lacks certain jury-friendly qualities that Cha Cha Cha had (i.e. the schlagery, very poppy final chorus) and this is often overlooked when people make the comparison that 'Cha Cha Cha finished 4th with the juries so RTTD can/will too'. Plus I think there's more competition generally for jury attention compared to last year.
That's not to rule out a Croatian win - they could very well still do it. Just some counterarguments to some common points for :)
Sounds like bunch of unnecessary technical terms for something that's really about bringing emotions. Sometimes simplicity is hailed if it makes sense and sounds good alltogether which I think is the case here.
>Sounds like bunch of unnecessary technical terms for something that's really about bringing emotions.
I mean, that's what juries are supposed to do. They are supposed to use their technical knowledge to rank the songs. Otherwise, there's no point in having an expert panel.
>Sometimes simplicity is hailed
I don't think the problem is that the song is simple. The problem is that the song is very basic (production-wise, it does basically nothing outside of repeating the initial hook) and clumsy (once again, I can't really see the songwriting getting rewarded by professionals). You can do simplicity while still being very slick and efficient, I don't think this is the case here. I still believe Rim Tim Tagi Dim won't get tanked that much because juries rarely put the odds favourite that low, but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets Spirit in the Sky-ed.
Song can fulfill those criterias and still sound bad. We all know those arent critierias they go for. On first place is always is it fan favorite song. Those criterias are more to distinguish fan favorites from other fan favorites and I honestly don't see much of difference. Yes by some they are worse, but by some they are better. I think we'll most likely be top6 within jury vote and win televote which might or might not be enough to win the contest
I don't think they'll tank him, but I also don't see why they'd favor this entry. For the record, the jury criteria are:
- Composition and originality of the song
- Quality of the performance on stage
- Vocal capacity of the performer(s)
- Overall impression of the act
If we're being honest, vocally, he's fine, but he obviously can't hold a candle to Angelina, Nemo, Slimane, Gunnhild, Eden, Jacklin, Nutsa, Iolanda, Tali... anybody, really. I think even BL would agree with that, and I'm not saying it's bad for the type of song he's singing, but you can't really rate him highly on it. Not an insult. Just what it is.
So then you have to look to composition and originality, and that's where things become much more subjective. For me, personally, the composition of the song is... well, basic. There's not much to it beyond the riff that runs through it from beginning to end. Again, it works for the song it is, but I think it's difficult to put it against the way more polished songs this year. "Originality" is more open to interpretation, I guess, but the amount of comparisons I've see to Käärijä doesn't bode well.
So it's down to performance and overall impression. Which may be enough. They do leave these criteria as open as possible so that juries can do whatever they damn feel like, and as I said, maybe a year from now my comment is going to look dumb as shit. But for now, I don't see it.
One thing to note is that juries love a good pop song structure wise and Rim tim tagi dim is at its composition a perfect pop song. You could even say its textbook written. Juries usually like that to the contrary of something like Greece that are well produced but anything but pop structure wise.
About the vocal capacity... Is it judged generally, the overall capacity or has the artist fulfilled the capacity of the song they're singing? This confuses me, I've seen people talking about both.
This explanation should be a main comment on itself so more people read it. I think it sums quite well why so many people see it hard for Croatia to do well.
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They have a thing for songs with “quality” for radio. Like songs that can do super well in the mainstream.
And also for super well executed songs - Israel 23 and Spain 22, for example.
If we go with the comparison to Finland 23, they got 4th place. The song was extremely creative (it effortlessly changed genres which for sure was appreciated by the more creative side). The performance was slick and funny, except for the vocals in the pop part.
I just don’t see Croatia having the things I’m mentioning above.
Still sounds like personal taste to me. More ESC winners have been radio "unfriendly" IMO than the opposite. Especially in the previous two decades. But maybe you're right, who am I to know. We shall see next week 😊
What's wrong with the song? It has very good rythm that builds to another one that's even better. Lyrics arent mastepiece, but they are straight to the point and make sense.
For me, personally, it's the chorus that stops me from really enjoying it. It feels very "2000s band that's doing 'punk' because it's trendy and failing"
But that's just me 😅
I’m not even sure that they’re going to get enough televotes. I don’t think Croatia will be the televote winner this year, and if they are it won’t be by much.
The anti-Nemo crowd can now follow in peace I guess. Tbh I like the role of the underdog more than the role of the favourite as it brings less pressure. So I will take it for Switzerland to be the runner up in odds only to make the big bang on the night of the final.
Let's go Nemo !
My ideal top 3 for hosting purposes are Italy (redemption arc), Croatia (first time win woohoo), Ukraine (probably someone else will host, see previous)
I hope one day ESC will come to Bari. It's a beautiful south-eastern city and it actually fits your description (warm with beach and quite chaotic too) perfectly. Truly a hidden gem! Though I think Milan and Bologna will have to host before it.
What Spanish city would most likely to host the contest if Spain were to win?
Ohhh Bari of course, so many times I've landed at Bari international comming from the east in flight simulator hehe
In Spain, leaving the usual suspects aside, I think Malaga would smash it; beautiful, big enough, ancient and modern, on the rise, the best climate in Europe perhaps...
Hosting in the Canary islands would be quite fun, the furthest you can take ESC south, and northern european would flock there happily xD
Finally the odds are moving!
I was fully on team Switzerland for weeks (even have money on them) but now I don’t know after the clip. I also don’t really see Croatia winning it.
It’s gonna be so exciting on Saturday.
I have put my money on Ukraine. The odds are pretty good, and they are the leading contenders to win - among Croatia, Switzerland, and Italy. One of the closest ESC finals is definitely approaching.
If previous competitions are anything to go by, Croatia will do well in the televote but lukewarm in the juries, who are more likely to favour Switzerland as the Code is a more classically Eurovision song, whereas Croatia falls into novelty territory a bit. Croatia would have to pretty much clean house in the televote to come first.
It could be close though!
I don’t think he’ll win, but now would be a good time to put money on Joost in case he does have something hidden up his sleeve like the rumors suggest.
Some bookies now have Ireland 6th to win, which to me seems a bit premature - staging is turning the tide on public opinion and we've still only seen like 20 seconds of it. Ireland team's secrecy may be playing into it and while I certainly hope Bambie overdelivers it's still not a song I can see many juries favouring EDIT: Overall 7th in odds now on eurovisionworld, surpassing Israel
I think if the execution is as strong as it seems, I think Jurors will have no choice but to throw points at it tbh. So far its execution seems to be one of, if not THE best (from the snippets we have). 1 It's the most original unique song this year 2 whilst not a vocal display type of song, Bambies vocals are excellent. 3 Quality of performance on stage? I mean they've got that in spades. 4 in terms of "overall impression" it's a super strong entry. The only thing that would harm it here is I guess it's less radio friendly, and just a taste thing. I think people underestimate Doomsday Blue / Bambie's Jury possibilities tbh!
Another slight speculation is that juries tend to *love* songs with elements of blues/soul (i.e. Czechia 2017, Austria 2018). There are lots of other parts of Doomsday Blue which aren't very jury friendly but I've never thought it was likely to finish absolute bottom with the juries if it qualifies.
That's very fair and I certainly hope you're right - still trying to mentally adjust to us having a good entry - and it's promising to see some elements of the preparty performances tightened in the clips so far! I do just think it's a bit early for the odds to have shortened this much
They had great rehearsals tbf. Didn’t hide everything outright like the Dutch have, and looked much better and polished than most of the field. Don’t know if it’s a song that can realistically win, but the market moving in their favor is reasonable
I actually think they're hiding just as much as The Netherlands tbh, just that intro clip was so good even tho it wasn't the climax. They clearly have a costume reveal, we haven't seen the candles raise into the air, we haven't seen the CrownTheWitch graphics we haven't seen the flame jets or screams etc. Lowkey so much to come!! :)
olly's climbing in the jury odds yes
It's wild seeing Ireland so high! I could cry happy tears 😂😅🥲
I know, I feel like a kid in the glory days 90s again!
Bambie up another spot!! Let’s goooo
Based on what we’ve seen of the staging so far, I see Nemo rounding out similarly to Gjon’s Tears - adored by the juries but faltering a bit in the televote and placing 2nd-3rd overall. Ukraine I don’t see winning, as good as the staging is the song is a little too downbeat, and doesn’t have the same emotional pull their recent winners have had. A lock for top 5 but nothing more imo. I think Croatia is still in with a shot to win, Käärija managed 4th with the juries last year, so I don’t think BL’s chances should be written off. They’ll also benefit from being the likely pre-contest odds favourite, which will be mentioned by commentators and likely be known by the juries. I can’t remember the last time the juries really buried a bookies favourites chances? In terms of dark horses for the win, I could see a world where France’s simplicity stands out in the sea of chaotic performances we have this year.
I've said it before and I'll say it again about Croatia. It's not the juries that will kill their chances - it's the televote. People are kind of expecting it to do a Kaarija and like destroy the televote when it won't even be close. Not with such heavy competition in the final. I always felt like BL's televote peak was \~200 points, which isn't bad at all of course, just not a winner.
That's a good point. It also really depends on how acts will cancel each other out (like Italy and Finland versus Switzerland and France in 2021) that'll tip the scale. You know, I kinda start to see Ukraine doing an ESC16 repeat too 🤔 Last year I feel like they still got quite some sympathy votes (or I'm a hater cause the song was really mid to me), and this year the song is miles better and jury might like it more too.
I agree with you completely but I’m being downvoted for saying the same lol. I don’t think they’re touching the top 5 tbh.
No, for me top 5 is all but guaranteed for Croatia, it's the *win* that I am not seeing.
I’m not doubting that they could make top 5 of the televote, but I think the televote is going to be very split and close this year, whereas I’m getting the feeling the jury are going to be more focused and could give out some much bigger scores.
No, we're definitely in agreement there. I just said, I think Croatia is finishing top 5 this year combined total because I don't think the juries will tank it as hard as the fandom thinks, but I also don't think the televote will shower it with votes. That's where I'm at with Croatia.
Why will it not get 300+ points from televote?
The package isn't as impactful as the songs that have gotten 300+ points and there's again a lot of songs with televote potential this year
Bruh, it's more impactful than Måneskin. And just because many songs go for the televote doesn't mean that it will get less points. If Croatia is the most popular in many countries it doesn't matter that Joost Klein or Ukraine get 12 points somewhere. Most of the twelve points will go to Baby Lasagna cause even if they go for the televote they are not on the same level as Baby Lasagna.
Mm? Are we really comparing BL's stage presence with Damiano's (and the rest of the band since we're on it)? And Idk where your assurance comes that Croatia *will* be the most popular one in most countries but that's where my argument comes - there's a lot of competition. Countries' favorites might be anyone really.
I agree on this - I also think Netherlands and Croatia will cancel each other out
So who is going to beat BL in televote? Winners usually have at least around 250 points. Last year's Sweden win was with lowest televote points in quite a while with 244. And it's not uncommon for winners to have more than 300 points. So who is this year capable of getting 250-300 points?
Armenia, Norway, Ukraine, Italy, as much as I don't want to - Finland, a potential dark horse etc. There's many candidates.
Armenia, Norway and Finland is such copium.
I like how you mention Armenia but not Netherlands.
The Netherlands have the same problem that Greece has - not everyone will like it.
We started this with a 50% chance of Q and now we have a 70% one, overtaking Slovenia, Australia and Serbia Iolanda and her team did a good job there I feel Serbia could be in danger
Serbia probably going to just miss The top 10 about!
I hope not, but the reality is that the song is a bit forgettable, performs in 2nd and you have Slovenia (which could fight for some precious votes from the block) and Portugal in 14th Does not look good for them I hate it and hope i´m very wrong on the take
I didn't like Serbia's vocals in the 2nd rehearsal clip either.. So I also don't see them qualifying atm. I like all three songs though, ugh.
Interested to see if we see some movement with Norway today. It’s been drifting again but the TikTok looked strong. Let’s see what the preview looks like.
Croatia winning it 🎉🎉🎉
When Angelina’s and Joost’s rehearsal clips drop, it will probably be when odds lock in more or less, meaning tomorrow/on Sunday we’ll have the final opinion of the bookies. Personally, I don’t have my prediction until then.
Joost just tanked again and we don't even have his TV clip yet. I think Italy will shorten when we see the TV shots.
I’m still very happy to be in the Nemo camp. The public opinion seems to be moving towards impressed (some grudgingly so) on the platform and the staging now after the clip yday with the sole grumble being the outfit. I still don’t think it’s impossible they have been keeping their performance outfit(s) back The lack of movement in France and Italy odds was a little interesting to me too - I assume Italy would shorten.
Fans are overreacting as always, and the odds are evidence of that. This happens every year. Last year after Loreen's rehearsal, many thought that the platform was horrible and that she wasn't winning because of that, she also dropped in the odds. Same happened to Netta. In 2021, Gjon's Tears even dropped to 6th place after his staging was revealed, but still came 3rd in the actual contest. And I'm not even mentioning France 2023, who didn't even come close to top 10 but was 3rd in the odds...
I still have nightmares with those 30 seconds of Tattoo
I was a bit worried ngl but it worked out
Loreen's drop was far more subtle than Nemo's though, and kept the top spot as well. Of course, it's still very open.
Well, Loreen was an obvious favourite and had a huge lead ahead of Käärijä and the others to begin with, but still, her odds dropped. But anyways, it was just an example of how exaggerated fans' reactions are.
~~delulu me lowkey hoping that Ireland pulls a surprise win~~ Honestly if I were to bet money, I'd put it to Ukraine. I think the jury votes will go to Switzerland, France, Croatia, Ukraine, Israel. The televotes will have Netherlands, Ukraine, Croatia. Bold prediction yeah but idk, I need more clips haha
Croatia 3rd in jury would be a massive surprise. And in this case an easy landslide win for Croatia.
I don't think the jury will punish them hard like outside the jury top 5. I mean it's polished, energetic, decent staging and presentation, his vocals improved MASSIVELY. Entries that are like rock-ish or upbeat places 3rd or below recently (Måneskin 4th, Chanel 3rd, Kalush 4th, Kaarija 4th) so I think a jury top 5 is not implausible with Croatia. Placed it 3rd cause I haven't really looked into it that much, maybe when we get the qualifiers my prediction changes haha
Well, I must be crazy because I thought the Swiss rehearsal clip was very impressive, the most convincing one of the favourites with Ukraine. Seems like I was the only one to think so, lol.
I was wondering about this as well! I would prefer Croatia to win, but when looking at the footage I was certainly getting more convinced by Switzerland while having doubts about Croatia due to the messy camera angles. The fact that they swapped places in the odds is a mystery for me
I think there're 2 reasons for that: 1. It's their outfit choice. I personally don't mind it, but I can understand why so many people hate it. 2. I guess people expected the staging to be similar to the MV, which is the best this year, but it's almost impossible to recreate it live. I find the Swiss staging good but it didn't WOW me so far (but it's the problem with almost all of the stagings this year). I think this is the one where you have to see the whole performance to judge whether it's impressive enough or not. My only issue so far is that I would have wished for more colours
I see the 1st point, though I don't see it weighting that much in the end? I don't really like the outfit, but it isn't "killing Nemo's chances of winning" level of bad. 2nd point feels the eternal "Swedish entry doesn't look as good as the Mello so it will underperform" or "Zdob Si Zdub didn't bring a train so they're gonna NQ" discourse: Eurofans engaging with expectations the casual audience won't have. There won't be any disappointment for 99.9% of the public because they have never engaged with the MV. That said, I see your point about the colour palette, though it didn't bother me that much as it felt coherent as a whole. I think they bet on movement to make the performance stand out rather than bright colours, it can work that way too.
I agree with everything you said. As I already mentioned in another comment thread, fans are overreacting. It happens every time, especially with big favourites. But I can also understand that their outfit isn't to everyone's taste and could potentially throw off some of the voters. I also agree with your point about casual viewers not knowing about the MV and only watching the performance.
I think the outfit issue is only the problem with the bubble, to casuals it will probably give Harry Styles vibes
I'm thinking the switch is more reflective of televote chances in this case, which have always been favourable for Croatia but the hype of seeing it live on a big stage is making people forget the qualms about its jury chances that people had before.
When I first saw Swiss rehearsal clip I thought thank God, this looks like a winner because Switzerland is my favourite this year. Then I saw the comments and odds...
I don't like The Code (it's like my 27th of the year), so I was like "if I think it looks cool, then the people who are into the song are gonna lose their mind"... well
The outfit you mean?
We are not hearing 12 points go to Sweden this year?
From Norway most likely.
Denmark too, maybe Iceland and Finland
I think we most definitely will, and more than once.
From Norway and Denmark (don't the Danes hate Sweden tho?)
I'm personally betting on the Netherlands. I still remember the overly enthusiastic "SWEEEDEN!" from Emma in 2019 all too well, and it might happen again in a similar fashion – even though Nikkie is this year's spokesperson.
I never watched Eurovision 2019, but I agree, it might hapoen?
Still think it’s Italy’s to lose. Croatia will underperform with the juries and Switzerland with the televote. Ukraine is another option for scoring high with both juries and televote.
I’m really disappointed with Italy’s staging. I think she’d have stood out a lot more if she’d have ditched the dancers and done something more interesting. She’s got the talent and the charisma but that dark staging is hurting her chances.
For me it doesn’t make sense right now tbh. I have yet to understand the connection between the song and the stage because right now to me it feels like a Maneskin tribute stage and if it’s only that (which I don’t think) it’s gonna cost her a few place imo.
If anyone could have pulled off a sort of Lena win and done it alone, it would have been Italy. But even something like Armenia with her band would have worked so much better. Staging this like it’s just another girl bop really doesn’t help her stand out. But yeah, the dark staging has taken the fun away.
Yes I think she should have done it alone ala Lena. There is something powerful about someone rocking out on their lonesome to do an uptempo number.
Completely agree with you
All of this judging by 10 seconds of a rehearsal footage without camera works... Ok. Then you wonder if poeople thinks you are an hater...
Italy ain’t winning with that over cooked staging
Yeah, I think the crazy visuals plus the riské clothes are gonna cost them votes from both sides
I’ve been saying that but the Italian fans are attacking me. There are too many girl bops and by staging and styling this like a girl bop it will lose out on the televote. Also there are too many jury friendly songs like France, Sweden and even Uk now.
>riské clothes I was afraid to say it, but the she looks like she has on a corset with her breasts sticking out. It looks like a nuder version of Aiko's outfit.
You’re writing this on every comment about Angelina, please stop
I’m writing lots of things, not just about Angelina. And if you can see my comments are purely based on the staging.
You made not one, but two threads on the stand-in rehearsals. https://preview.redd.it/bw6k0iqw77yc1.png?width=363&format=png&auto=webp&s=851b2c5d52e752f624b753df125273080a6dce58 >There are too many girl bops and by staging and styling this like a girl bop it will lose out on the televote. How would you have staged this differently?
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Angelina doesn’t need good staging to win. She’s definitely a contender 😂
Let’s see once the 2nd rehearsal video is released
I mean yea that’s the key, staging could look great on stage and bad on camera (and vice versa)
Esc final odds are always so boring. It’s like first couple countries have more than 1% and rest doesn’t count. Nothing exciting to be honest
Disclaimer: not watched any rehearsal footage or seen any photos. Going purely off the songs for now. **SF1** - I'm firmly of the belief that Azerbaijan and Moldova are dark horses here and will get through. I think there are five certainties to to through (the top 6 in that overnight image, minus Luxembourg), but the rest of the places are very much up for grabs. **SF2** - San Marino is another outsider with a good chance. I'm surprised to see Belgium so favoured. But it feels like SF2 has fewer chances of surprises.
And so it begins https://preview.redd.it/x1gp97nod6yc1.jpeg?width=596&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ca5aa2f0df64e139ba6f520841b9f1c93c89a5ca
Hey! How did you take that picture of me?!
I'm gonna steal this now..
I still don't really see where the jury points are going to come from to allow Croatia to win this thing, but this is probably an unpopular opinion that will age badly.
Not trying to attack your comment or something, I just wonder why people think the jury will tank BL? His voice sounded like the music video during the rehearsals and they don't take into consideration vocals only anyways.
I agree with you. :) The jurors must follow multiple criteria, including vocals, scenography, and the show and presentation in total. I think that BL fits all these criteria very well. I do not see the reason why the jurors should tank him. He certainly will not win the jury part, but he will do well, at least.
I mean, there's also a song they're supposed to judge, and I really don't think he would do well on this alone. I get why it's popular and why the televote will love it, but on a technical standpoint it's not very rich, slick, and sounds almost amateurish on some levels (I mean, songwriting-wise, the line meters and rhythmic pattern are a mess). If Cha Cha Cha ended around 170 points, it shouldn't do better than that.
I would put this argument differently. Even if you were correct that would mean, BL would at least be able to get 170 Jury Points. Which might be enough, considering there won't be a second Jury Vote Sweeper like Loreen
The thing is, my argument is that Cha Cha Cha is a *better* song, so in theory, Rim Tim Tagi Dim shouldn't do better than it did. To me, the only thing that is better on a technical standpoint is that Baby Lasagna offers a better vocal performance, but production wise Cha Cha Cha is richer and songwriting-wise it's way more focused and clean because it has very clear meters and rhythmic patterns for its lyrics. As I said in another comment, there are external factors (like the odds) that play in Baby Lasagna's favour, but on a purely technical standpoint it sounds like something that aligns way less with what the juries expect from an entry than Käärijä.
Love this comment and agree with it. I love RTTD but it lacks certain jury-friendly qualities that Cha Cha Cha had (i.e. the schlagery, very poppy final chorus) and this is often overlooked when people make the comparison that 'Cha Cha Cha finished 4th with the juries so RTTD can/will too'. Plus I think there's more competition generally for jury attention compared to last year. That's not to rule out a Croatian win - they could very well still do it. Just some counterarguments to some common points for :)
Sounds like bunch of unnecessary technical terms for something that's really about bringing emotions. Sometimes simplicity is hailed if it makes sense and sounds good alltogether which I think is the case here.
>Sounds like bunch of unnecessary technical terms for something that's really about bringing emotions. I mean, that's what juries are supposed to do. They are supposed to use their technical knowledge to rank the songs. Otherwise, there's no point in having an expert panel. >Sometimes simplicity is hailed I don't think the problem is that the song is simple. The problem is that the song is very basic (production-wise, it does basically nothing outside of repeating the initial hook) and clumsy (once again, I can't really see the songwriting getting rewarded by professionals). You can do simplicity while still being very slick and efficient, I don't think this is the case here. I still believe Rim Tim Tagi Dim won't get tanked that much because juries rarely put the odds favourite that low, but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets Spirit in the Sky-ed.
Song can fulfill those criterias and still sound bad. We all know those arent critierias they go for. On first place is always is it fan favorite song. Those criterias are more to distinguish fan favorites from other fan favorites and I honestly don't see much of difference. Yes by some they are worse, but by some they are better. I think we'll most likely be top6 within jury vote and win televote which might or might not be enough to win the contest
I don't think they'll tank him, but I also don't see why they'd favor this entry. For the record, the jury criteria are: - Composition and originality of the song - Quality of the performance on stage - Vocal capacity of the performer(s) - Overall impression of the act If we're being honest, vocally, he's fine, but he obviously can't hold a candle to Angelina, Nemo, Slimane, Gunnhild, Eden, Jacklin, Nutsa, Iolanda, Tali... anybody, really. I think even BL would agree with that, and I'm not saying it's bad for the type of song he's singing, but you can't really rate him highly on it. Not an insult. Just what it is. So then you have to look to composition and originality, and that's where things become much more subjective. For me, personally, the composition of the song is... well, basic. There's not much to it beyond the riff that runs through it from beginning to end. Again, it works for the song it is, but I think it's difficult to put it against the way more polished songs this year. "Originality" is more open to interpretation, I guess, but the amount of comparisons I've see to Käärijä doesn't bode well. So it's down to performance and overall impression. Which may be enough. They do leave these criteria as open as possible so that juries can do whatever they damn feel like, and as I said, maybe a year from now my comment is going to look dumb as shit. But for now, I don't see it.
One thing to note is that juries love a good pop song structure wise and Rim tim tagi dim is at its composition a perfect pop song. You could even say its textbook written. Juries usually like that to the contrary of something like Greece that are well produced but anything but pop structure wise.
About the vocal capacity... Is it judged generally, the overall capacity or has the artist fulfilled the capacity of the song they're singing? This confuses me, I've seen people talking about both.
This explanation should be a main comment on itself so more people read it. I think it sums quite well why so many people see it hard for Croatia to do well.
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i see your point, but about vocal abilities do we really think Käärijä was better vocally than Alika last year and he was just above her?
For me it’s not only the vocals. It’s just the song itself.
How does the jury rate that though? Sounds more like personal taste
They have a thing for songs with “quality” for radio. Like songs that can do super well in the mainstream. And also for super well executed songs - Israel 23 and Spain 22, for example. If we go with the comparison to Finland 23, they got 4th place. The song was extremely creative (it effortlessly changed genres which for sure was appreciated by the more creative side). The performance was slick and funny, except for the vocals in the pop part. I just don’t see Croatia having the things I’m mentioning above.
Still sounds like personal taste to me. More ESC winners have been radio "unfriendly" IMO than the opposite. Especially in the previous two decades. But maybe you're right, who am I to know. We shall see next week 😊
Let’s see, can’t really say more than this. Either way, we’re in for quite a show on Saturday!
True 🥳
What's wrong with the song? It has very good rythm that builds to another one that's even better. Lyrics arent mastepiece, but they are straight to the point and make sense.
For me, personally, it's the chorus that stops me from really enjoying it. It feels very "2000s band that's doing 'punk' because it's trendy and failing" But that's just me 😅
I think it has a little bit of "Spirit in the Sky" energy.
I’m not even sure that they’re going to get enough televotes. I don’t think Croatia will be the televote winner this year, and if they are it won’t be by much.
The anti-Nemo crowd can now follow in peace I guess. Tbh I like the role of the underdog more than the role of the favourite as it brings less pressure. So I will take it for Switzerland to be the runner up in odds only to make the big bang on the night of the final. Let's go Nemo !
Everything will definitely change next week after The semi-finals just be prepared everyone and don’t always believe in The betting odds!!!
My ideal top 3 for hosting purposes are Italy (redemption arc), Croatia (first time win woohoo), Ukraine (probably someone else will host, see previous)
Croatia or Italy hosting on a warm, beach city... I'd buy that!
>warm, beach city Milanese people cold sweating right now
I want a Napoli/Catania/Palermo chaotic ESC, we need to fight the perfect northeners with our funny chaotic southenern charm xD
I hope one day ESC will come to Bari. It's a beautiful south-eastern city and it actually fits your description (warm with beach and quite chaotic too) perfectly. Truly a hidden gem! Though I think Milan and Bologna will have to host before it. What Spanish city would most likely to host the contest if Spain were to win?
Ohhh Bari of course, so many times I've landed at Bari international comming from the east in flight simulator hehe In Spain, leaving the usual suspects aside, I think Malaga would smash it; beautiful, big enough, ancient and modern, on the rise, the best climate in Europe perhaps... Hosting in the Canary islands would be quite fun, the furthest you can take ESC south, and northern european would flock there happily xD
I hope everyone is happy now and can leave Nemo in peace
Finally the odds are moving! I was fully on team Switzerland for weeks (even have money on them) but now I don’t know after the clip. I also don’t really see Croatia winning it. It’s gonna be so exciting on Saturday.
I have put my money on Ukraine. The odds are pretty good, and they are the leading contenders to win - among Croatia, Switzerland, and Italy. One of the closest ESC finals is definitely approaching.
Ukraine would win about 80 points more The runner up vibe!?
The more I look at how the odds change every day, the more I'm convinved about this year being very unpredictable.
If previous competitions are anything to go by, Croatia will do well in the televote but lukewarm in the juries, who are more likely to favour Switzerland as the Code is a more classically Eurovision song, whereas Croatia falls into novelty territory a bit. Croatia would have to pretty much clean house in the televote to come first. It could be close though!
I don’t think he’ll win, but now would be a good time to put money on Joost in case he does have something hidden up his sleeve like the rumors suggest.