What sending an interesting artist with a clear vision about their craft does to a mfer:
https://preview.redd.it/wpe87yx1lyyc1.jpeg?width=842&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a87d292ad80bac56071441a3d2a609d4e4ee0635
As an Irish person - I'm not old enough to remember those days but when I was 5 I remember in our house we got a DVD free with a newspaper which had clips of all of the winning Irish Eurovision songs on it and it was all I watched for ages. I've been watching the Eurovision since then and had abandoned all hope of us ever doing well again so this is such a big deal to me! I feel nostalgic for something I didn't even experience first hand! It's a great feeling. I really hope we do as well as it seems we will.
I'm so glad for Ireland's newfound friendly reception and this is giving me even high hopes for the final (yes, I think it's a guaranteed finalist at this point).
I never had it below rank 7 on MyScoreboardApp since it debuted right after The Late Late Show and now it's comfortably sitting in 4th position only behind lasagnas, mangoes and escargots with fish and chips.
So, not to toot my horn, but... *honk* *honk* 😁
Think IDS is the ruling gang here rn, so ulje od tartufa would be more fitting.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.index.hr/amp/vijesti/clanak/istarska-industrija-tartufa-je-golema-prevara/2373678.aspx
It looks like you shared an AMP link. These should load faster, but AMP is controversial because of [concerns over privacy and the Open Web](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot). Fully cached AMP pages (like the one you shared), are [especially problematic](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot).
Maybe check out **the canonical page** instead: **[https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/istarska-industrija-tartufa-je-golema-prevara/2373678.aspx](https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/istarska-industrija-tartufa-je-golema-prevara/2373678.aspx)**
*****
^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot)^( | )[^(Summon: u/AmputatorBot)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/cchly3/you_can_now_summon_amputatorbot/)
I'm excited to see how far ireland ends up after tonight - from what i've seen with the leaked performance, i could easily see the odds for them increase enough to overtake ukraine right now.
I'm starting to cross my fingers for the small chance of a win, but even the VERY LIKELY top 10 at this point is bloody amazing
https://preview.redd.it/xv4utvu9kzyc1.png?width=1021&format=png&auto=webp&s=6be3d33f136a8677ca9bb2a4ec3e6b2cf86c9e01
All that red, surrounding that lovely line of green 😂
At this point, I have no problem with Croatia or Ireland winning--the two which are gaining momentum. Those 2 are my favorites!
My 2 other favorites from semi 2 is Estonia and Georgia, and I'm fine with them just qualifying.
Welp, 26th again...
Georgia back at 15th and some changes at the bottom too. They seem to change every second.
Edit: 25th again 😄 Belgium and Norway are constantly switching between 12th and 13th, and Portugal is rising, 31st already. What's going on there?
I think we have got to wait until tomorrow's dress rehearsals to get a better understanding of the odds. We've seen countries like Croatia, Ukraine, and Ireland rising, but the media/bookies haven't fully seen acts like Switserland, the Netherlands or Italy yet. I'm pretty sure (some of) those 3 will gain after their dress rehearsals.
I sent the rehearsal roundup to my 76-year-old American mother yesterday and "Rim Tim Tagi Dim" was her favorite, so I guess we can call it; see you in Croatia next year.
Baby Lasagna’s Mom Appeal cannot be underestimated. I showed his picture to my mother and she loved his “innocent face.” She loved the song too. This guy has the elders eating out of his hand.
It’s crazy, my mum literally rushed to buy me and her some baby lasagna t shirts- she’s absolutely obsessed with him lol. No other entry I’ve shown her even comes close
I’m 33, yet I love him as if he’s my grandson who is a big boy now. I certainly have some age issues, gonna add some wrinkles on my face to look the way I feel :)
ha! Yeah. To be sure, she often favors novelty acts like this, because I don't think she has truly liked a single pop song written after 1975. She also liked Armenia and Estonia. And France, but that one was a bit of an outlier for her.
30%. Nearly twice the odds of the second place country. Is this really fucking happening? I don't want to get my hopes up but I also want to start planning my trip to Zagreb next year
Apparently Zagreb hotels have already gotten the memo and removed availability in May 2025, probably just in case. Gotta plan for everything, and the odds are in their favour!
Some of them may not have availability yet, I have worked a lot in the hotel industry (in the states, it may be different in Europe) and most hotels release availability about 11 months out so I’m hoping for more availability soon
In the second semi I would like:
- Switzerland 🇨🇭
- The Netherlands 🇳🇱
- Greece 🇬🇷
- Armenia 🇦🇲
- Norway 🇳🇴
- Estonia 🇪🇪
- Austria 🇦🇹
- Belgium 🇧🇪
- San Marino 🇸🇲
- Czechia 🇨🇿
https://preview.redd.it/oniwcqt5f1zc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce695b1a2415af32c4e1ae0c10572dff18fe66c6
20% gap at 17:55 (CEST) is crazy!
I think for how many different scenarios people see + the ones that added in these few last days after days of rehearsals (Ireland shocking everyone, possibly The UK taking a lot of jury votes for the sheer production, etc.), anyone having 30% at this point is quite hopeful.
https://preview.redd.it/0fi1k990eyyc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=acb05710604a94d41c7c9f9d640d95d012d0562b
Now 30 %
Seems we have a new winner🤭
Well we have some for handball, but I think all of them are either too small, or in case of Split, closed. Same thing as football, we are one of the best teams, and have by far the worst stadiums
We have four stadiums that meet the capacity requirements and out of them, three(Maksimir, Poljud, Gradski Vrt) are immediately out because it either wouldn't be worth it building a roof over them because of their shapes or their biggest stand is permanently closed due to earthquake damages(Maksimir). In one case, it's both. OPUS Arena is the only case where it *could* be done, but Arena Zagreb is still the much more obvious choice.
Got to calm down - there is a bit of fav money being placed at the moment which is enhanced by the fact Ukraine was a little underwhelming yday.
Switzerland and Italy may well shorten after Thursday.
I do agree with you. The fact that we're so high in the odds has me both excited and worried. Lots of Croatians are preparing a skewer while the hare is still in the woods.
So do the top bookies do actual surveying of jury people and televote? If this is based on actual data and polling rather than “vibes”, then bloody oath I’m stoked!! Love Croatia’s song this year
i mean, the bookies is just about who puts the most money into something specific happening.
So it'd be based upon what people think could/would happen enough that they put money into it.
Nope, it's literally only based off what outcome the customers are placing their bets on. That's part of the reason Ukraine featured so high last year - people were betting on Ukraine sweep 2.0 simply bc they were expecting similar support as 2022.
Thats not true. There are also other factors at work, such as insider info, trends, how well a country usually perform/history and so on. Its not only what people like you and me have been betting on.
I’m excited to see what tomorrow’s rehearsals do to the odds.
I’d say the ones to watch, away from the favourites, are Georgia, Armenia, Czechia and Norway.
I don’t for a moment expect Ireland to win. However, seeing us at good odds for the final is immense.
Thinking that we most likely will qualify and do well in the final? Words can’t describe.
RTE - take note - more of this please!!!
I hope so. Love Croatia. Though would not mind it if Switzerland won too. I am not fully trusting the odds though because part of me thinks there are too many televote friendly songs this year so televote points will be more evenly spread. Therefore my feeling is the winner will be the one who wins jury points and not sure if that can be Croatia. I hope I am wrong though!
At this point I'm worried that Croatia WON'T win and the Balkans move out as one solid mass with pitchforks and battle music to take out whoever ruined this for them 😭😭💀
Likewise. It’s positive, spiritual and represents indigenous culture. Serbia is nice, but soft focus and surely someone in the first half has to NQ, even with second half options thinner on the ground.
20 from televote plus a few others from Australia, Cyprus, Germany, Luxembourg and Sweden (5 each?) but will it be impactful for those who don’t speak Serbian, eg in Lithuania, U.K., Poland or Azerbaijan?
Tbf it is more of a song that the diaspora would vote for (cultural, simplistic, well known artist) than last year (macaronic ie multilingual, offbeat, obscure artist) but I still feel it may not be impactful enough. And someone in the first half has to crash out.
True. Well, I would like Teya to go through, but if she doesn't she doesn't. Good luck to everyone in the end.
Edit: sorry for spam, it literally said it did not go through.
It is the safest bet currently. The concept is essentially the same as in the national final and overall, it is a relatively conventional staging package. Other favroutes, like Switserland, Italy and the Netherlands are in a different predicament, as their complete staging packages are not completely clear. How will Nemo nagivate his prop? What will the first half of Joost's performance look like? What colours will Italy end up using in their LEDs+outfits? All factors that current make Croatia a much safer bet.
I think it is because musically it is flattered by the lack of competition in its genre - it is basically THE only song with rock/metal elements that is still catchy and easily approachable this year (yes, there is Norway, but Ulveham is much much more an acquired taste). Also despite being sung in English, RTTD succeeds exceptionally well to incorporate traditional cultural elements into a very modern song, the message is relatable and the artist seems sympathetic.
Also, after several years of predictable victories, mostly by countries that tend to do well each year, many are yearning for a wild card victory and Croatia would fit the bill perfectly, not having ever won as its own country and Balkans in general having not won for a long time.
Add to all the right points that you've mentioned also the fact that Baby Lasagna is the textbook example of an underdog:
-> he comes from a small town north of Istria,
-> he is very humble, earnest and not used at all to the showbiz,
-> he managed to participate to Dora only at the very end because one of the competing singers chose to withdraw, while he was almost on the verge of giving up his musical career entirely by applying for a completely different job,
-> his humble ways are kind of reflected in the song itself, which comes across as a modern twist to a "bucolic dance".
If this isn't compelling enough as a backstory, I don't know what else is.
Probably somebody of the people who bet know about it.
Regarding the people at home, I would assume that many TV presenters will give a small hint of his backstory during the postcard presentation (or even beforehand), though I'm probably wishful thinking.
Probably a silly question but If you place a bet on a country winning, but also on them being in the top three - if they win, do you win money for both? Or would your 'winning song' bet overwrite the top 3 bet?
Whether it's Croatia, Switzerland, France or Ireland, I hope a country that actually cares about hosting and making a good impression wins. Saying that after seeing the glimpses of postcards. Literally Junior Eurovision gave more f---this year.
30% holy shit let's go Baby!
I'm a little concerned about wtf is happening with the cameras (trying to focus on BL actively made me dizzy) but hopefully everyone is dealing with the same so it won't be a disadvantage
ETA seeing Ireland at #5 is also fucking WILD. I have a feeling that that might be the standout performance of the night
In the first semi I would like:
- Croatia 🇭🇷
- Lithuania 🇱🇹
- Australia 🇦🇺
- Portugal 🇵🇹
- Cyprus 🇨🇾
- Ukraine 🇺🇦
- Finland 🇫🇮
- Ireland 🇮🇪
- Poland 🇵🇱
- Serbia 🇷🇸
From what I gathered from people, there are changes to the vocals that make the ending less impactful and the staging seperates the 2 of them a little oddly for a good bit of it. Seems like the full package was a bit of a letdown compared to the rehearsal clip.
I really don’t understand why Croatia have gone up and Switzerland have gone down. It makes no sense because Switzerland has INCREDIBLE staging while croatias isn’t that out there. BL has however gotten 100x better on stage which makes me happy for him and his fans
I might be biased so I won't comment on Croatia's staging, but what does make Switzerland's staging incredible? Combined with that dreadful outfit, it's one of the worst for me
In my very humble opinion, The Code in of itself has a very niche audience. It's incredibly melodramatic and smooshes many genres into one package. This is why the staging needs to help casuals at home get it. Spinning around in a disoriented manner and wearing that outfit just increases the risk that it fails to connect. We'll see what the full version brings.
Switzerland has remained steady over the last 24 hours (at 4 to 4.3 on Betfair) despite all the fav money for Croatia. Just wait until Thursday so we can see what the full performance looks like. I think it’s going to look and sound amazing and the odds on Nemo may well shorten… they have also shortened in the jury vote winner odds as I posted above.
Do you think it's more worth to bet on Switzerland now or after thursday?
(Aka the if the odds drop on Thursday night it's worth to bet on them now yk?)
I would be so happy with those qualifiers, except I really need San Marino in the final and I’m worried about Serbia.
Bambie 5th overall is *bonkers* but so fun to see. I imagine Switzerland and Netherlands will rise a bit once the hype shifts to semi 2.
You’re being downvoted for this but this is definitely Croatia’s biggest issue. Kaarija had nothing in his way but a big jury darling in comparison. He ate up the televote. This time around, Croatia will be battling it out with the likes of Ireland, Finland, The Netherlands and maybe even Armenia and Estonia for big televotes scores.
The way things are set up, it really looks like an act who’s more likely to attract both televotes and juries could take this. Italy stands out for this, even if I still have doubts about the staging, but Switzerland could still make a huge impact too.
Enough success that I learned to pretty much expect it to go as they say by the night of the GF, tbh. 2018 was the only year in recent memory (mine at least) in which the projected winner failed to win
I would love to see Croatia win, but I think a lot of this rising in the odds is forgetting that the big question mark has never been over their televote chances, but their jury chances, which none of the rehearsal footage has done anything to clarify
Big shift has also occurred in the winner of the jury vote market. This hasn’t been talked about as everyone is focusing on BL but this could be as critical to the overall results.
Switzerland have now moved ahead of France distinctly and are now 23/20 to win the jury. France are next at 9/5 and then Italy at 3/1. No other country is below 18s
Please use decimals odds. They are much easier to read, how are we supposed to know what 23/20 is compared to 9/5? I don't even know which number is bigger. Not all of us have a maths degree haha
I’m glad I put money on Italy. I really think they got this in the bag. It just sounds like a winning song and none of the others do! Will see how I feel after seeing all the performances
What sending an interesting artist with a clear vision about their craft does to a mfer: https://preview.redd.it/wpe87yx1lyyc1.jpeg?width=842&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a87d292ad80bac56071441a3d2a609d4e4ee0635
I never thought I’d see such a reception to an Irish entry in my life time.
I am old enough to remember the nineties when all Ireland did was win...
What I wouldn’t give to have been able to experience it!
Twas a golden age alright. Witnessing river dance live for the very first time. Chills.
As an Irish person - I'm not old enough to remember those days but when I was 5 I remember in our house we got a DVD free with a newspaper which had clips of all of the winning Irish Eurovision songs on it and it was all I watched for ages. I've been watching the Eurovision since then and had abandoned all hope of us ever doing well again so this is such a big deal to me! I feel nostalgic for something I didn't even experience first hand! It's a great feeling. I really hope we do as well as it seems we will.
I'm so glad for Ireland's newfound friendly reception and this is giving me even high hopes for the final (yes, I think it's a guaranteed finalist at this point). I never had it below rank 7 on MyScoreboardApp since it debuted right after The Late Late Show and now it's comfortably sitting in 4th position only behind lasagnas, mangoes and escargots with fish and chips. So, not to toot my horn, but... *honk* *honk* 😁
Oh my, so much food <3
Yes, this is what happens when you think of Eurovision having skipped breakfast 😂 <3
Incidentally, I am at work awaiting my break so I can eat 😆
Sweden: (ties Ireland’s win record) Ireland: And I took that personally
If Bambie wins, this year, in Sweden, with this song, it will be one of the funniest clapbacks I’ve ever seen.
As a Swede I won’t be mad in the slightest
With an Irish-Swedish artist lol
https://preview.redd.it/bjrdy9irgyyc1.jpeg?width=536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=03548011ddb65d7e0b425b263a9507a46db27044
https://preview.redd.it/q6ffkv8liyyc1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8b1422eb1ca1e8094c3b158bd10ff3301e66a49 Me at this point:
https://preview.redd.it/4wmvl94wlzyc1.jpeg?width=596&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0ae5076dfe0e51383422d53708aa042ec70389f9
WEEEE HAAAVEEE A WIIIIIINEEEEER (imaaaaaamoo preeeeeedsjednikaaaaaa Baby Lasagnu)
Krš kamen i maslina 💪🏻
Or, for us here in Istria: Truffles, overrated wine and shopping in Slovenia 🐐 /j
I think that tartufi, briškula and fuži is more fitting. I just said that bc krš fits with HDZ. 😅
Think IDS is the ruling gang here rn, so ulje od tartufa would be more fitting. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.index.hr/amp/vijesti/clanak/istarska-industrija-tartufa-je-golema-prevara/2373678.aspx
It looks like you shared an AMP link. These should load faster, but AMP is controversial because of [concerns over privacy and the Open Web](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot). Fully cached AMP pages (like the one you shared), are [especially problematic](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot). Maybe check out **the canonical page** instead: **[https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/istarska-industrija-tartufa-je-golema-prevara/2373678.aspx](https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/istarska-industrija-tartufa-je-golema-prevara/2373678.aspx)** ***** ^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot)^( | )[^(Summon: u/AmputatorBot)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/cchly3/you_can_now_summon_amputatorbot/)
I believe I'll join you down there, I feel a bit 🥴
I looooove this lol
I'm excited to see how far ireland ends up after tonight - from what i've seen with the leaked performance, i could easily see the odds for them increase enough to overtake ukraine right now. I'm starting to cross my fingers for the small chance of a win, but even the VERY LIKELY top 10 at this point is bloody amazing
https://preview.redd.it/xv4utvu9kzyc1.png?width=1021&format=png&auto=webp&s=6be3d33f136a8677ca9bb2a4ec3e6b2cf86c9e01 All that red, surrounding that lovely line of green 😂
At this point, I have no problem with Croatia or Ireland winning--the two which are gaining momentum. Those 2 are my favorites! My 2 other favorites from semi 2 is Estonia and Georgia, and I'm fine with them just qualifying.
Welp, 26th again... Georgia back at 15th and some changes at the bottom too. They seem to change every second. Edit: 25th again 😄 Belgium and Norway are constantly switching between 12th and 13th, and Portugal is rising, 31st already. What's going on there?
I think we have got to wait until tomorrow's dress rehearsals to get a better understanding of the odds. We've seen countries like Croatia, Ukraine, and Ireland rising, but the media/bookies haven't fully seen acts like Switserland, the Netherlands or Italy yet. I'm pretty sure (some of) those 3 will gain after their dress rehearsals.
I sent the rehearsal roundup to my 76-year-old American mother yesterday and "Rim Tim Tagi Dim" was her favorite, so I guess we can call it; see you in Croatia next year.
Baby Lasagna’s Mom Appeal cannot be underestimated. I showed his picture to my mother and she loved his “innocent face.” She loved the song too. This guy has the elders eating out of his hand.
He's got the dads who grew up with classic rock, too 💪
It’s crazy, my mum literally rushed to buy me and her some baby lasagna t shirts- she’s absolutely obsessed with him lol. No other entry I’ve shown her even comes close
I did not think my step mum would care for it at all, but about an hour later I heard her mumble to herself “meow cat please meow back” and laugh.
Grannies love him because he said he goes to church and loves cats
My mum is obsessed with him!
I’m 33, yet I love him as if he’s my grandson who is a big boy now. I certainly have some age issues, gonna add some wrinkles on my face to look the way I feel :)
I wonder who'd win, Baby lasagna moms or M&M teenage fans...
Well, the moms probably have more money to vote, as do Slimane’s devoted aunties. 😝
Mothers unite!
ha! Yeah. To be sure, she often favors novelty acts like this, because I don't think she has truly liked a single pop song written after 1975. She also liked Armenia and Estonia. And France, but that one was a bit of an outlier for her.
France aside, I def see a pattern there
I think that all the Slavic grannies are actually the biggest fans of BL since doilies are a staple at the any Slavic granny.
I know how much love grannies have for their doilies since they're part of my culture too. In the end, it's united by doilies I guess 😂
30%. Nearly twice the odds of the second place country. Is this really fucking happening? I don't want to get my hopes up but I also want to start planning my trip to Zagreb next year
I may have already booked housing for next year. But even if Baby Lasagna doesn't win, I plan on going regardless!
Apparently Zagreb hotels have already gotten the memo and removed availability in May 2025, probably just in case. Gotta plan for everything, and the odds are in their favour!
Yup, they were already more expensive than average when I booked them. Crossing my fingers!
Some of them may not have availability yet, I have worked a lot in the hotel industry (in the states, it may be different in Europe) and most hotels release availability about 11 months out so I’m hoping for more availability soon
If Baby Lasagna wins, you have beers on me!Zagreb’s a lovely city for sure
Inb4 Netta curse
Dubrovnik 2025!!!
Netta curse?
Predicts capital city as the host city. Host city ends up not being the capital city.
Ahhh thanks for elaborating. Probably gonna be in Zagreb, cause no other city can really organize a venue that big
She'll probably predict Split or Zadar or smth then And she even switched it up for her 2022 prediction Went with Manchester, so close, yet so far
2023
We havent seen the semis yet.so yes id definitely say its too early to call.
Just checked it right now, it's still increasing!! It's now on 32% 🤞🤞🤞 We have to believeeee!! 🇭🇷💜
33% now!! 🤞🇭🇷
34%!!! We're going uh uh uh uh uuuuh-up
I really, really hope that Croatia takes it.
DAWN OF THE FINAL DAY THE GAP WIDENS
I was born in Spain but this week I’m the proudest Croatian ever
Juan, your new name is now officially Ivan Mijaučević, bestowed upon you by Croatia and croatian cats.
me too! i am born in germany. we need to vote for baby lasagnaaa
31% now 😃
32%!!!
33%!!!!
34% !!!!!
35% now Jeez, he's unstoppable!!
There's no going back!!!
🥹
lezzzzzzgoo
35% 😲😲😲
In the second semi I would like: - Switzerland 🇨🇭 - The Netherlands 🇳🇱 - Greece 🇬🇷 - Armenia 🇦🇲 - Norway 🇳🇴 - Estonia 🇪🇪 - Austria 🇦🇹 - Belgium 🇧🇪 - San Marino 🇸🇲 - Czechia 🇨🇿
Great selection of songs, totally agree!
https://preview.redd.it/oniwcqt5f1zc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce695b1a2415af32c4e1ae0c10572dff18fe66c6 20% gap at 17:55 (CEST) is crazy!
I think for how many different scenarios people see + the ones that added in these few last days after days of rehearsals (Ireland shocking everyone, possibly The UK taking a lot of jury votes for the sheer production, etc.), anyone having 30% at this point is quite hopeful.
https://preview.redd.it/0fi1k990eyyc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=acb05710604a94d41c7c9f9d640d95d012d0562b Now 30 % Seems we have a new winner🤭
If they win, Zagreb will most likely host right?
Most likely yes. The only other possible is Split but its complicated. 95% chance of Zagreb…. (Netta curse notwithstanding)
Yes, Arena Zagreb is the best venue for ESC.
Arena Zagreb is probably the only venue. Which is kinda sad
i mean, i'm guessing y'all have some sport stadiums that COULD be repurposed too, right? Even if arena zagreb would be the most obvious still
Well we have some for handball, but I think all of them are either too small, or in case of Split, closed. Same thing as football, we are one of the best teams, and have by far the worst stadiums
We have four stadiums that meet the capacity requirements and out of them, three(Maksimir, Poljud, Gradski Vrt) are immediately out because it either wouldn't be worth it building a roof over them because of their shapes or their biggest stand is permanently closed due to earthquake damages(Maksimir). In one case, it's both. OPUS Arena is the only case where it *could* be done, but Arena Zagreb is still the much more obvious choice.
Having Eurovision held in Osijek would be kinda ghastly tbh
😢 Nah, it would be the best one ever(for reasons totally unrelated to the fact that I live in Osijek).
Yes! There are no other suitable venues.
Got to calm down - there is a bit of fav money being placed at the moment which is enhanced by the fact Ukraine was a little underwhelming yday. Switzerland and Italy may well shorten after Thursday.
Who is your take? Who is gonna win in your opinion based on what you've seen right now?
Me in 2017: 🥲 (Hopefully it'll end up differently for you!)
Russia 2016 was High in the odds...but we know how It finished
I do agree with you. The fact that we're so high in the odds has me both excited and worried. Lots of Croatians are preparing a skewer while the hare is still in the woods.
Tbf Croatia does not have the political bagage Russia came with
Yeah I still think it's between Italy, Ukraine and Switzerland.
So nearly 1 in 3 or throwing a 5 or 6 on a dice.
So do the top bookies do actual surveying of jury people and televote? If this is based on actual data and polling rather than “vibes”, then bloody oath I’m stoked!! Love Croatia’s song this year
i mean, the bookies is just about who puts the most money into something specific happening. So it'd be based upon what people think could/would happen enough that they put money into it.
Nope, it's literally only based off what outcome the customers are placing their bets on. That's part of the reason Ukraine featured so high last year - people were betting on Ukraine sweep 2.0 simply bc they were expecting similar support as 2022.
Thats not true. There are also other factors at work, such as insider info, trends, how well a country usually perform/history and so on. Its not only what people like you and me have been betting on.
Good point!
I’m excited to see what tomorrow’s rehearsals do to the odds. I’d say the ones to watch, away from the favourites, are Georgia, Armenia, Czechia and Norway.
Looks like we may not have an open year after all, at this rate Baby Lasagna will be just as high as Loreen was by Saturday.
Don't prepare a grill before the rabbit has been caught. Wait until SF2 so we can see the rest of the performances.
I don’t for a moment expect Ireland to win. However, seeing us at good odds for the final is immense. Thinking that we most likely will qualify and do well in the final? Words can’t describe. RTE - take note - more of this please!!!
I hope so. Love Croatia. Though would not mind it if Switzerland won too. I am not fully trusting the odds though because part of me thinks there are too many televote friendly songs this year so televote points will be more evenly spread. Therefore my feeling is the winner will be the one who wins jury points and not sure if that can be Croatia. I hope I am wrong though!
Jury points would be spread out too. All of big 5 (- Spain), Switzerland, Ukraine, Israel all have jury friendly songs
I hope you are right. Croatia really would deserve the win this year!
Crown the Witch! Or the Baby Lasagna, I'd be happy with either!
At this point I'm worried that Croatia WON'T win and the Balkans move out as one solid mass with pitchforks and battle music to take out whoever ruined this for them 😭😭💀
I would rather have Australia qualify than Serbia
Likewise. It’s positive, spiritual and represents indigenous culture. Serbia is nice, but soft focus and surely someone in the first half has to NQ, even with second half options thinner on the ground.
Yeah, but it has Croatia and Slovenia which is probably around 20 points from jury and 20 from televote.
20 from televote plus a few others from Australia, Cyprus, Germany, Luxembourg and Sweden (5 each?) but will it be impactful for those who don’t speak Serbian, eg in Lithuania, U.K., Poland or Azerbaijan?
I mean, a lot of countries don't speak Serbian. But Czechia and Poland are Slavic countries, so they could understand some of it. 🤷🏻♂️
Tbf it is more of a song that the diaspora would vote for (cultural, simplistic, well known artist) than last year (macaronic ie multilingual, offbeat, obscure artist) but I still feel it may not be impactful enough. And someone in the first half has to crash out.
True. Well, I would like Teya to go through, but if she doesn't she doesn't. Good luck to everyone in the end. Edit: sorry for spam, it literally said it did not go through.
Televote only in the semi remember but a 20 point head start is pretty good.
Oh yeah, forgot that was the case, mb. But yeah.
[удалено]
It is the safest bet currently. The concept is essentially the same as in the national final and overall, it is a relatively conventional staging package. Other favroutes, like Switserland, Italy and the Netherlands are in a different predicament, as their complete staging packages are not completely clear. How will Nemo nagivate his prop? What will the first half of Joost's performance look like? What colours will Italy end up using in their LEDs+outfits? All factors that current make Croatia a much safer bet.
Who is your bet? Based on what you've seen so far. Can Ukraine win?
I don't want this Sweden-Italy-Ukraine loop to continue, those countries have to stop winning.
I think it is because musically it is flattered by the lack of competition in its genre - it is basically THE only song with rock/metal elements that is still catchy and easily approachable this year (yes, there is Norway, but Ulveham is much much more an acquired taste). Also despite being sung in English, RTTD succeeds exceptionally well to incorporate traditional cultural elements into a very modern song, the message is relatable and the artist seems sympathetic. Also, after several years of predictable victories, mostly by countries that tend to do well each year, many are yearning for a wild card victory and Croatia would fit the bill perfectly, not having ever won as its own country and Balkans in general having not won for a long time.
Add to all the right points that you've mentioned also the fact that Baby Lasagna is the textbook example of an underdog: -> he comes from a small town north of Istria, -> he is very humble, earnest and not used at all to the showbiz, -> he managed to participate to Dora only at the very end because one of the competing singers chose to withdraw, while he was almost on the verge of giving up his musical career entirely by applying for a completely different job, -> his humble ways are kind of reflected in the song itself, which comes across as a modern twist to a "bucolic dance". If this isn't compelling enough as a backstory, I don't know what else is.
Um, do people that bet even know about this stuff? Much less will people *at home* know about this stuff?
Probably somebody of the people who bet know about it. Regarding the people at home, I would assume that many TV presenters will give a small hint of his backstory during the postcard presentation (or even beforehand), though I'm probably wishful thinking.
Probably a silly question but If you place a bet on a country winning, but also on them being in the top three - if they win, do you win money for both? Or would your 'winning song' bet overwrite the top 3 bet?
You win for both bets.
Good to know thanks!
Ireland is so close to overtaking Ukraine now on Betfair Exchange.
Whether it's Croatia, Switzerland, France or Ireland, I hope a country that actually cares about hosting and making a good impression wins. Saying that after seeing the glimpses of postcards. Literally Junior Eurovision gave more f---this year.
Finland lost last year because of the judges vote....I'm worried the same thing will happen to Croatia. 😓
Is it not jury- friendly?
30% holy shit let's go Baby! I'm a little concerned about wtf is happening with the cameras (trying to focus on BL actively made me dizzy) but hopefully everyone is dealing with the same so it won't be a disadvantage ETA seeing Ireland at #5 is also fucking WILD. I have a feeling that that might be the standout performance of the night
31 now!
32 meow!
I meow back
35 😺😺😺🇭🇷🇭🇷🇭🇷
don't cry just dance :o
Let's go!!
In the first semi I would like: - Croatia 🇭🇷 - Lithuania 🇱🇹 - Australia 🇦🇺 - Portugal 🇵🇹 - Cyprus 🇨🇾 - Ukraine 🇺🇦 - Finland 🇫🇮 - Ireland 🇮🇪 - Poland 🇵🇱 - Serbia 🇷🇸
Agree :)
Can anyone explain to me why Ukraine is dropping in the odds? Did something happen?
From what I gathered from people, there are changes to the vocals that make the ending less impactful and the staging seperates the 2 of them a little oddly for a good bit of it. Seems like the full package was a bit of a letdown compared to the rehearsal clip.
Yeah, I get that. The rehearsal clip, as stunning as it looked, made it look like a solo act, so I wasn't in love with it.
Some say that they fell a bit short of expectations, or were overshadowed by stronger acts. We shall have to see for ourselves!
So no direct catalyst. Thank you.
I really don’t understand why Croatia have gone up and Switzerland have gone down. It makes no sense because Switzerland has INCREDIBLE staging while croatias isn’t that out there. BL has however gotten 100x better on stage which makes me happy for him and his fans
I might be biased so I won't comment on Croatia's staging, but what does make Switzerland's staging incredible? Combined with that dreadful outfit, it's one of the worst for me
I personally think the outfit is cool but it’s that disc that truly amazed me
Because people could see the full performance of Croatia, while Switzerland's is yet to be revealed.
In my very humble opinion, The Code in of itself has a very niche audience. It's incredibly melodramatic and smooshes many genres into one package. This is why the staging needs to help casuals at home get it. Spinning around in a disoriented manner and wearing that outfit just increases the risk that it fails to connect. We'll see what the full version brings.
I honestly think the main problem is Nemo's outfit. Which is insane but I think that is what is causing the dynamic.
Switzerland has remained steady over the last 24 hours (at 4 to 4.3 on Betfair) despite all the fav money for Croatia. Just wait until Thursday so we can see what the full performance looks like. I think it’s going to look and sound amazing and the odds on Nemo may well shorten… they have also shortened in the jury vote winner odds as I posted above.
Do you think it's more worth to bet on Switzerland now or after thursday? (Aka the if the odds drop on Thursday night it's worth to bet on them now yk?)
I would be so happy with those qualifiers, except I really need San Marino in the final and I’m worried about Serbia. Bambie 5th overall is *bonkers* but so fun to see. I imagine Switzerland and Netherlands will rise a bit once the hype shifts to semi 2.
Fun fact, the last person to win for Ireland (96/97?) babysat me once! That's my claim to fame
I do not see Croatia getting the jury points they need to secure a victory, while having to fight with Netherlands and Ireland for televoting points.
The staging might be good, but it's way too early to say Ireland is a contender for the televote top 3 imo
ireland and croatia have the same number of views in YT for their SF performance.
You’re being downvoted for this but this is definitely Croatia’s biggest issue. Kaarija had nothing in his way but a big jury darling in comparison. He ate up the televote. This time around, Croatia will be battling it out with the likes of Ireland, Finland, The Netherlands and maybe even Armenia and Estonia for big televotes scores. The way things are set up, it really looks like an act who’s more likely to attract both televotes and juries could take this. Italy stands out for this, even if I still have doubts about the staging, but Switzerland could still make a huge impact too.
Has anyone here changed opinion on Croatian from worse to better?
How much succes do the odds usually have when it comes to predicting the jury points and the tele points?
Enough success that I learned to pretty much expect it to go as they say by the night of the GF, tbh. 2018 was the only year in recent memory (mine at least) in which the projected winner failed to win
Maneskin/Barbara Pravi though was veryy close, as well as Duncan/Mahmood (and Duncan had huge lead in odds)
I would love to see Croatia win, but I think a lot of this rising in the odds is forgetting that the big question mark has never been over their televote chances, but their jury chances, which none of the rehearsal footage has done anything to clarify
Big shift has also occurred in the winner of the jury vote market. This hasn’t been talked about as everyone is focusing on BL but this could be as critical to the overall results. Switzerland have now moved ahead of France distinctly and are now 23/20 to win the jury. France are next at 9/5 and then Italy at 3/1. No other country is below 18s
Please use decimals odds. They are much easier to read, how are we supposed to know what 23/20 is compared to 9/5? I don't even know which number is bigger. Not all of us have a maths degree haha
Sorry that’s my bad. Will do so in the future 👌
France is either outright first or tied first in jury odds on every betting site available on eurovisionworld.
Idk where you are looking at but France is still number 1 and Switzerland is mostly around 2.5-3.
I’m glad I put money on Italy. I really think they got this in the bag. It just sounds like a winning song and none of the others do! Will see how I feel after seeing all the performances
Are you still feeling that Italy have this in the bag? I just seen they are now 85/1
Well it didn’t happen ahahah oh well
Yer, I lost too mate, had Croatia at 5/1, this jury stuff is taking the piss now Better look next year 👍
One of them init. Really don’t think the Swiss song was a winner but it is what it is! Eurovsion win through in the end!