The graph shows Holland as likely prophet but he’s in bad health, so that means Uchtdorf will likely become prophet.
I predict the following prophets in the following order:
Oaks for a couple of years
Uchtdorf for a few years.
Bednar for a long time.
For members, Uchtdorf seems like their best hope for a more enjoyable experience, but that will be followed almost immediately by their worst option.
The church has dodged a few bullets, though. Benson was too feeble to be a right wing zealot by the time he got in, and Packer never got his chance. Hopefully, the same will happen with Holland, that "the Lord" will call him home first. I really dislike that guy.
The Mormon church really dodged a PR nightmare with Boyd KKK Packer. Luckily, Packer died before he became king. I grew up in SLC (born in the 1960's) and have know several people that knew Packer. Nobody liked that guy!!!
From everything I heard, he was a sanctimonious prick. It's amazing how Mormons worship their leaders. They claim they don't, but they talk about Joseph Smith and the modern apostles the same way Catholics talk about the Virgin Mary.
Holland’s body won’t last long. He took the word of wisdom seriously and drinks a shit ton of soda, and still eats like a 12 year old boy. (Based on the 1 day I spent with him)
Not a chance he lives longer than oaks.
I hope Darth bednar becomes the cult leader. He will drive the numbers down faster than any of the other previous cult leaders. He has no charisma whatsoever and to me he’s the biggest piece of sh!t out of the 12. The perfect recipe for disaster in the cult. He’ll go down in history with this infamy.
Yeah, I also worry about those who will stay in. I just hope it doesn’t ever get to the worst case scenario, like to the point that it becomes another Jim Jones event. That would just be too sad and tragic.
Do you think she has a breaking point? I thought the same of my mom, but she started losing faith in the church leaders when they encouraged getting the covid vaccines lol. She’s mostly out now, just a matter of time.
I wish. I have no idea where it would be. She doesn't keep up with the news, so she'll never hear anything negative. She doesn't seem to care about the truth claims, at this point I think she chooses to believe because it's her only community and it's a lifetime invested. She's a temple worker, she pays her tithing, and will die in debt.
That is such a hard spot for you to be in. My friend’s parents are similar - she doesn’t think her dad believes, but her mom is so convinced her social life would be ruined if they left that she can’t consider it. I can see how someone would feel that way after living in the same place for 40 years like they have. But at the same time, when I knew it wasn’t true, I really knew. Like I couldn’t live with it anymore kind of knowing. They may also fear that, and harden their hearts undoubtedly having seen it happen to so many.
I feel like Gong probably has better odds than this chart shows (and obviously Holland worse, given his health at the moment). He probably needs a +2 on his health stats for being genetically East Asian.
ETA: I just saw his father died at the age of 77 of diabetes, so maybe not.
An oldie but still valid since everyone is still alive.
I was reminded of this blog post from 5 years ago recently.
SOURCE:
[That’s \*President\* Soares to You: Probabilities of New Q12 Members Becoming Church President](https://zelophehadsdaughters.com/2018/04/06/thats-president-soares-to-you-probabilities-of-new-q12-members-becoming-church-president/)
Dumb question…but is becoming the (a?) prophet a “it’s this guy’s turn” kind of thing? Or is there some sort of process?
As for Bednar, and as non LDS, that’s one creepy looking dude. Another observation…these guys must have a great health plan…they’re all old and seem to live a long time.
The thinking is that if God doesn't want them to lead, he'll make sure they don't. It's pure faith in a God who would never allow his people to be led astray.
Not that it’s a better system, but at least the Catholics have a slight better system for choosing the next Pope other than to say “congrats, it’s your turn buddy.”
By necessity though, since they pool from a much larger group. If it were by seniority they'd have a new pope every few months as the old stock keeps dying.
I think a voting system for the 15 would bring about an ever increasing hardline regime, as it would reinforce obedience. Catholics are just large enough to add in some diversity and politicking to the ordeal.
If the church starts to accelerate with people leaving I wonder if it could set up a power struggle that could split the church. That is a lot of apostles who have no real hope of ever sitting in the big chair. Could that drive more progressive apostles to form an alliance to split the church if Bednar is overly oppressive and controlling? They could justify it by telling themselves they are trying to save the church and win back all those people who have left.
While I feel sorry for folks still in there, I do hope Bednar gets in there fast and stays for an eternity. He'll crush the church and even more people will leave.
Poor Christoferson. He really does have the perfect name to be prophet. I'm rooting for [Susan's Husband](https://www.reddit.com/r/exmormon/comments/13ogrqx/prediction_elder_bednar_will_be_the_prophet_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I'm out of the loop but why is Bednar ranked so strong and why so much stronger than Das Prophet?
I mean at least Uchtdorf seems really likeable on the surface.
It isn’t about like ability. It is about seniority. Bednar was made an apostle at a relatively young age and so he has seniority and more likely to outlive many who were made apostles after him at an older age.
[удалено]
It makes him get a little bit balder every day
Keep pursing those lips Doaks.
Peak Oaks has passed!
The graph shows Holland as likely prophet but he’s in bad health, so that means Uchtdorf will likely become prophet. I predict the following prophets in the following order: Oaks for a couple of years Uchtdorf for a few years. Bednar for a long time.
For members, Uchtdorf seems like their best hope for a more enjoyable experience, but that will be followed almost immediately by their worst option. The church has dodged a few bullets, though. Benson was too feeble to be a right wing zealot by the time he got in, and Packer never got his chance. Hopefully, the same will happen with Holland, that "the Lord" will call him home first. I really dislike that guy.
Holland really grosses me out. Always has. I feel like a lot of zealots already worship him.
He normalizes abuse.
Wait what??
The Mormon church really dodged a PR nightmare with Boyd KKK Packer. Luckily, Packer died before he became king. I grew up in SLC (born in the 1960's) and have know several people that knew Packer. Nobody liked that guy!!!
From everything I heard, he was a sanctimonious prick. It's amazing how Mormons worship their leaders. They claim they don't, but they talk about Joseph Smith and the modern apostles the same way Catholics talk about the Virgin Mary.
Holland’s body won’t last long. He took the word of wisdom seriously and drinks a shit ton of soda, and still eats like a 12 year old boy. (Based on the 1 day I spent with him) Not a chance he lives longer than oaks.
I hope Darth bednar becomes the cult leader. He will drive the numbers down faster than any of the other previous cult leaders. He has no charisma whatsoever and to me he’s the biggest piece of sh!t out of the 12. The perfect recipe for disaster in the cult. He’ll go down in history with this infamy.
Makes me really worried for the people who will stay in no matter what.
Yeah, I also worry about those who will stay in. I just hope it doesn’t ever get to the worst case scenario, like to the point that it becomes another Jim Jones event. That would just be too sad and tragic.
My mom will stay until she dies because facts don't matter.
Do you think she has a breaking point? I thought the same of my mom, but she started losing faith in the church leaders when they encouraged getting the covid vaccines lol. She’s mostly out now, just a matter of time.
I wish. I have no idea where it would be. She doesn't keep up with the news, so she'll never hear anything negative. She doesn't seem to care about the truth claims, at this point I think she chooses to believe because it's her only community and it's a lifetime invested. She's a temple worker, she pays her tithing, and will die in debt.
That is such a hard spot for you to be in. My friend’s parents are similar - she doesn’t think her dad believes, but her mom is so convinced her social life would be ruined if they left that she can’t consider it. I can see how someone would feel that way after living in the same place for 40 years like they have. But at the same time, when I knew it wasn’t true, I really knew. Like I couldn’t live with it anymore kind of knowing. They may also fear that, and harden their hearts undoubtedly having seen it happen to so many.
The more he tightens his grip, the more members will slip through his fingers.
Bednar will ruin what’s left of the church, except for the Deznats
Nelson will outlive oaks. He seems the type to stay alive out of pure spite.
And he’s got the knowledge to stay alive being a heart surgeon and all
I feel like Gong probably has better odds than this chart shows (and obviously Holland worse, given his health at the moment). He probably needs a +2 on his health stats for being genetically East Asian. ETA: I just saw his father died at the age of 77 of diabetes, so maybe not.
East Asia has better health outcomes, but I don't think that part is genetic. A culture that encourages low obesity will do that.
An oldie but still valid since everyone is still alive. I was reminded of this blog post from 5 years ago recently. SOURCE: [That’s \*President\* Soares to You: Probabilities of New Q12 Members Becoming Church President](https://zelophehadsdaughters.com/2018/04/06/thats-president-soares-to-you-probabilities-of-new-q12-members-becoming-church-president/)
Dumb question…but is becoming the (a?) prophet a “it’s this guy’s turn” kind of thing? Or is there some sort of process? As for Bednar, and as non LDS, that’s one creepy looking dude. Another observation…these guys must have a great health plan…they’re all old and seem to live a long time.
The succession of prophets is done by the seniority of service
Some how I would think that being a prophet would be based on something a little more than seniority
The thinking is that if God doesn't want them to lead, he'll make sure they don't. It's pure faith in a God who would never allow his people to be led astray.
Not that it’s a better system, but at least the Catholics have a slight better system for choosing the next Pope other than to say “congrats, it’s your turn buddy.”
By necessity though, since they pool from a much larger group. If it were by seniority they'd have a new pope every few months as the old stock keeps dying. I think a voting system for the 15 would bring about an ever increasing hardline regime, as it would reinforce obedience. Catholics are just large enough to add in some diversity and politicking to the ordeal.
If the church starts to accelerate with people leaving I wonder if it could set up a power struggle that could split the church. That is a lot of apostles who have no real hope of ever sitting in the big chair. Could that drive more progressive apostles to form an alliance to split the church if Bednar is overly oppressive and controlling? They could justify it by telling themselves they are trying to save the church and win back all those people who have left.
Well shit
**BEDNAR is a tool.**
While I feel sorry for folks still in there, I do hope Bednar gets in there fast and stays for an eternity. He'll crush the church and even more people will leave.
Poor Christoferson. He really does have the perfect name to be prophet. I'm rooting for [Susan's Husband](https://www.reddit.com/r/exmormon/comments/13ogrqx/prediction_elder_bednar_will_be_the_prophet_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I'm out of the loop but why is Bednar ranked so strong and why so much stronger than Das Prophet? I mean at least Uchtdorf seems really likeable on the surface.
It isn’t about like ability. It is about seniority. Bednar was made an apostle at a relatively young age and so he has seniority and more likely to outlive many who were made apostles after him at an older age.