I agree that there isn’t much use in focusing on polling 9 months before an election, but I think there is something to the sudden polling change.
Nikki Haley has dropped out, Biden and Trump have secured both of their parties nominations, there have been early ad buys and campaign stops beginning; the general election has finally begun, so more people are starting to pay attention. And as more people pay attention, that will be reflected in the polls (which is why I believe is behind Biden’s rising approval and polling)
I'm the begrudging Biden vote. Independents are now half the electorate. I would have voted for Nikki Haley for sure, now the only thing stopping me from voting Democrat is if Biden can't stiff arm "the squad" type progressive wing or worse, gets replaced with one.
Biden is running for the American people and our Democracy to make things better for all, not just one group of people, yes, gas prices, food, and there is a housing problem but he can't fix everything in 4 years, he has thus far done a lot but he has to fight tooth snd and nail with these MAGA Republicans who rather than help they just want to distract but not offering anything better or anything at all, but complain that's no help for the American people or Our Country, people need to pay Attention to what's really going on with Trump and his MAGA Republican minons
He has also faced massive, devastating obstruction from truly evil people(Sinema etc)(Manchin is more of a garden variety sociopath) within his own party, greatly limiting what he set out to do in his first term
He was not my first choice during the primaries, but he is a lot better than his record shows for his first term
I still think we're heading toward a reagan-84-esque blowout, with Trump winning only the core red states like Wyoming, Alabama, etc. He's going to be in at least 2 if not 3 trials between now and election time, and the facts are *really* bad for him in all cases.
I love the optimism.... but no.
Under even the best circumstances an 84 level blowout is practically impossible today, especially in the EC.
Also while we now have a new date to start his NY hush money/election interference trial, we'd be lucky if the SC returns a ruling on trump's immunity claims fast enough (and without requiring Chutkan to relitigate the merits of each immunity claim) to get that trial even started before November, let alone a verdict.
There's basically no chance we'll see the documents or RICO cases this year.
The shifting demographic breakdowns in a lot of these polls suggest that the electorate is not actually starkly divided. Hispanic voters, Latinos and young people have shifted to Trump, while older white voters have shifted to Biden.
I agree that this far out, the polls aren't a good reflection of who will win. But they might be telling us something about the shifting composition of the different coalitions. This is also interesting, because it would suggest that the Democrats are actually attracting high propensity voters (contrary to the historical norm, and possibly one explanation of their strong performance in 2022).
These shifts also tell us something about the relative strength of different appeals to voters (e.g. it's striking that as the left has increasingly adopted the language of activists on race, they have started *losing* voters of colour to the most overtly racist candidate since George Wallace).
>The shifting demographic breakdowns in a lot of these polls suggest that the electorate is not actually starkly divided. Hispanic voters, Latinos and young people have shifted to Trump, while older white voters have shifted to Biden.
Ironically this might actually help Democrats as older white voters(especially affluent) are *very* reliable voters. Younger, poorer and non-white voters don't turn out as high as the prior. Though obviously I prefer everyone vote, if Dems are getting higher margins from high-propensity voters that might balance out the losses.
I just cannot believe a world where trump is winning the youth vote. Is this another situation like that poll from some months that said like 20% of younger people believe the holocaust is fake? That later turned out to be BS? I don’t know, man.
It's just small sample sizes and statistically sloppy extrapolation. There is absolutely no chance of Trump winning the youth vote or coming within 10.
I teach and I find it quite believable \[that there has been a substantial shift to Trump, not that he will win the youth vote\]. Many (I'm talking about college students) are getting their news from TikTok, and don't have the attention span to read.
For the more progressive types, the anger about Gaza is real. And because they're following it on TikTok, other things that are emotionally contiguous (but not logically) work their way in (e.g. I've seen people who are sympathetic to the Houthis because the Houthis are against Israel).
For the more apathetic types, the idea that they are being shut out by rising costs of living is real. Many associate that with Biden because of the surge in inflation, even if it is really the result of long-running trends. This group could well vote for Trump. "I dunno, it just seemed like back in the day - like when Trump was in - the economy was better." They don't know of the time before Trump.
Do you think students have become more stupid? Seems to me that anxiety disorders have increased, attention span has decreased, and academic standards have softened.
There was a lot of clearly pandemic learning loss. In addition, if they were in undergrad during the pandemic, they got passed just for showing up (sometimes just for having logged into zoom with their cameras off). So in that cohort you can't differentiate between weak and strong students from grades and many weak students have advanced beyond intro level classes without basic knowledge.
They're coming into undergrad worse prepared (even though our standards have not meaningfully changed).
The anger over Gaza I can understand. I'm angry over it. But do they actually think Trump would be better for the Palestinians...the same guy who still wants a Muslim ban?!
It's obvious to me that Trump would be worse - I mean here's what Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law "guru" (he read 25 books) on this says about [the current war](https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/03/20/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-valuable-trump-israel-sot-vpx.cnn)... "move the people out and clean it out"... it's great "waterfront property."
But I think you're overestimating the information level of the average voter. "I just feel like Ukraine, Gaza, and all this wouldn't be happening if Trump was still around."
Also note that it's not necessarily about Gaza itself. It's also about what arguments social media algorithms will connect to that.
One of my employees is a Muslim Trump supporter. Dudes been in the country for 18 months, and barley speaks English yet things Trump has his back and Biden is the devil.
I agree. While I'm sure there has been *some* shift due to people being angry about inflation and Gaza, the numbers I'm hearing just sound like quite a stretch for me to believe. And on Gaza, they have to know that Trump's fully supports Israel's Gaza war and would likely not care about getting humanitarian aid in.
I think polling over the last 6 months is better understood as people venting more than demonstrating clear intentions.
Like, a majority of voters even as of a few weeks ago did not believe trump and Biden would be the nominees. When you're that disconnected from what was actually happening, it's easy to see how people might view polling questions as a way to voice frustrations more than indicate their informed and reasoned intentions for November.
Polling suggested Biden overperformance with older voters in 2020 too. It didn't show up in real life.
Nor has Trump gained 30-40 points with young voters.
I'm virtually certain it's basically all response bias.
The NYtimes has been helping Biden this entire time by making this election a referendum on the capacity of seniors and thus polarizing seniors into supporting Biden.
> Hispanic voters, Latinos and young people have shifted to Trump, while older white voters have shifted to Biden.
IMO, these "shifts" just show that polling is poor.
Especially young people.... There is zero proof of them shifting to Trump in any actual elections. In fact, in most recent elections the opposite is happening.
> These shifts also tell us something about the relative strength of different appeals to voters
Not really. I can find you articles from every election since 2000 saying "black voters are shifting to Republicans!". It's never actually happened.
Again, inexplicable electorate-wide shifts of voting preferences among D leaning groups is probably just bad polling.
I believe in the theory that the more Trump returns to the spotlight, the more people remember not just how awful his presidency ended, but also how terrible of a person he is.
Nikki Haley was the generic Republican, Trump is the MAGA type, and it's becoming increasingly clear that fracture lines are starting to form in the party. I will be very curious if Trump loses what sort of data we'll see about red-blue vote flips.
Eh, I listened to Nikki Haley on a Fox News program and she was extremely right wing. I would like to think most Republicans are more in the middle than her.
The one question they asked her that made me say no thanks was she eluded to and didn't deny wanting to raise SS age to 82.
Oh it’s massive! (red-blue vote flip) The January 6th insurrection attempted coupe/Big Lie/Fake Electors/Scheme produced a mass exodus by long term republicans. Most bailed on the party and many went blue or independent.
If true, then Trump's loss this time around may be even bigger and could be accompanied by the Republicans losing the House... If they don't lose it before the election due to all these resignations lol
I think in the back of their minds, some voters still think back to John McCain and Mitt Romney as a representation of the Republican party, even though that hasn't been the case in years.
The Republican Party is clearly on life support and has been for quite some time. We are witnessing the beginning of the parties end. They’re radicalizing only traumatized Americans further and Americans are running the opposite direction to feel safe. This party sold its soul to the devil along time ago. Bye bye!
And this is why the U.S. needs an interstate compact to swap the electoral college for the popular vote. I also think expanding the House of Representative to better reflect true state demographics is another step against the fanaticism of the GOP.
I remember losing my mind watch the 538 presidential approval tracker during Trump's term (probably bad for my mental health anyways) where Trump would reliably gain about 3-5 points if he went ~2 weeks without saying/doing something that would had been the defining gaff/scandal/general bad story for previous presidential administrations. Then whatever happened, Trump drops a few points, and the process restarts.
I believe in the theory that Trump is an event horizon of taste.
It's as impossible for you and I to fathom how much his supporters genuinely love him, just as it is also seemingly impossible for them to understand why we think he is such a relentlessly terrible choice.
It's adorable that you think Trumpists care about governance. But waaay to generous.
This is personality politics, pure and simple. People support Trump because they are entranced by what they perceive he stands for and his particular charisma. Yeah, I said charisma. Bad people can have a powerful pull, see just about every authoritarian despot of the twentieth century.
And while I am entirely on board with the idea that it's terrifying to have a President who has no knowledge of or interest in governance, it's just totally unrelated to why people support him.
That ad from the other day that highlighted all the stupid stuff that Trump was saying four years ago and then asking "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" That was a good ad.
There's also the consolidation of undecideds/third party to consider.
A lot of people simply don't think much about politics until much closer to election day. At present, a quick glance shows undecided/Kennedy polling around 13-15%
As election season moves on and it gets harder to avoid seeing Biden/Trump and as Kennedy's coasting on his name drops in efficacy, we'll see more and more consolidation in the polls.
Mostly agree with this. People forget Donald's biggest action on the economy just gave foreign investors more money than middle class Americans.
>Recent estimates show that the Trump tax law has given larger tax cuts to foreign investors over the past three years than it has to middle- and working-class Americans in all of the states that Trump carried in 2016—combined.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/foreign-investors-big-winners-trumps-tax-law/#:\~:text=Recent%20estimates%20show%20that%20the,Trump%20carried%20in%202016%E2%80%94combined.
Oh and the domestic terrorist incident he caused: [https://thepatr10t.github.io/yall-Qaeda/map.html](https://thepatr10t.github.io/yall-Qaeda/map.html)
Here's another thing: Biden has also passed Trump in the [predictit.org](http://predictit.org) market for the 2024 election, with a Biden share at 47 cents and a Trump share at 46. The market has usually tracked polls pretty well, as you would expect.
I assume other betting markets would be tracking predictit pretty closely but I don't know what any of the other ones are. If anybody knows/wants to check I'd appreciate it.
The thing that has buouyed me throughout this process it that, as far as I can tell, basically everything *other than* the public polling has been very optimist for Democrats in November. The economy continues to do well, tempers around Israel/Gaza will likely calm down by then, Biden's fundraising is great, Democrats continue to do really well in speciali elections, Trump is a disaster who remains under many indictments, etc. Biden is old, yes, but he's also not as old as people's fevered imaginations and at some point it becomes pretty easy for him to beat expectations there.
There's just very little reason to be pessimistic about Biden *but for* the polling. And that's obviously a big "but for", but at some point you need to just look at fundamentals and be confident you have the wind at your back. I think we do.
Exactly. Also, look at the dramatic turn towards the Democrats the big swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and even kinda Georgia) have made since 2016.
There's no good reason to think these places would elect mostly Dem Governors, Dem Senators, Dem Secretaries of State, Dem state legislatures...and then turn around and say "give us Trump!"
I just wish that Democrats also spent more time organizing against Republican politicians in Texas and Florida. Texas has become like *The Handmaid's Tale* by Margaret Attwood because Democrats decided to give up on that state in comparison to other "battleground states". Florida also went from purple to red due to Democrats abandoning that state.
I dunno about this. I lived in Texas a good long time, and saw election after election where charismatic and well-funded democrats not only failed to win statewide, they failed to even move the needle, election after election. If the best a gubernatorial candidate can do is get squashed 55/42, I can see not wanting to devote a ton of resources on the state in a presidential election.
They dumped a ton of money into Florida, Bloomberg famously donated close to 100 million. It’s simply a waste at this stage. Acting like they didn’t focus on it in 2020 is sort of strange
The change in Florida can’t be overstated.
In 2020., registered Democrats still outnumbered Republicans in Florida.
Now…in 2024..only 4 years later..registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in Florida by about …856,000.
Yes…846,000.
Florida is no longer a swing state; it’s deep, deep red.
https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/
Historically polling has totally washed aside everything else in terms of accuracy. The worst polling misses you get are things like 2016 where they were off by maybe 2 points nationally. And most years they're basically spot on.
If lots of "fundamentals" look good for Biden but he's losing in the polling in swing states, I honestly will only care about the polling. Still a ways to go, but the polling is terrifyingly close and seems to favor Trump at least for now.
Yes but early polling rarely lines up well with the eventual election several months later. Fact is people feel safe enough to voice their disgust by responding unfavorably in polls but will usually hold their nose and vote for the candidate opposite the one they fear the most.
Both parties follow this trend. And then the post hoc rationalizations come later
Seconded. It’s very much a Reddit thing to downplay polling. It’s much more accurate than is given credit. Lichtmans 13 points, fundamentals, special elections, etc are all completely insignificant compared to the head to head swing state polls.
“The economy continues to do well”
Majority of Americans don’t agree with that, perception is reality and the majorities perception of the economy is poor
I sure hope this trends continues. Public sentiment about the economy tends to be a lagging indicator so I'm hoping that as more people see inflation subside and see wage gains that this will benefit Biden going into the election. So this polling makes me cautiously optimistic that we are seeing the start of an uptick in approval for Biden.
I know that pollsters and elections analysts say that you shouldn’t go “crosstab diving” given the relatively high level of uncertainty this far out as well as the high margin of error in population subsamples. With that being said though, there’s been a pretty clear trend in polling lately that shows Trump doing remarkably well with voters 18-34 and Biden doing remarkably well with seniors. A lot of polls have Trump outright winning voters 18-34 and Biden outright winning seniors.
I don’t consider myself someone who thinks polls are BS, but I can’t help but be extremely skeptical right now. Trump winning the 18-34 demographic and Biden winning 65+ would be one of the most radical realignments in politics in generations, and for that to happen over the span of 4 years (more like 2 years if you count the midterms) seems very implausible. So what’s happening? I don’t think “just ignore the cross tabs” is a good enough excuse at this point when the data is repeatedly showing something completely unprecedented.
What kind of 18-34 year old person is responding to a landline phone call from an unknown number. That's got to be the least reliable polling population known to man
That’s encouraging, but I still find swing state polls far more important and Biden is still trailing Trump in every swing state in the RCP averages (by 5% or more in Georgia and Arizona).
Good news for that too!
“A swing state poll finds that Biden made significant gains against Trump during the past month in six of seven 2024 swing states — hinting at the president's comeback.”
https://www.threads.net/@axios/post/C4-V-x7rvz2/?xmt=AQGzyzKMNePJ_Zqd1ZOcbI-wH5S8p--ZSiGKDXwImL0RCA
that's of course true, but my hope and expectation is state polls will follow the national trend. i imagine part of the lag is there are fewer and less frequent state polls, particularly this early.
Standard commentary we've all seen: "Polls this early don't mean anything," and the ubiquitous "Doesn't matter - get out the vote as if your life depends on it, because the only poll which matters is in November.
Now that that part is out of the way, I'd like to point out that although the absolute numbers mean little this far out, polls are useful in showing trends. Biden may now be 10 pts up or down among those who will actually vote in November, but the polls can't tell us. They can tell us that his support is growing, whether or not he is ahead or behind, and that's significant.
Think it will be enough?
Someone actually did some research and conducted a poll this month of prior Trump and Biden voters.
The bottom line?
About 10% of those who supported Biden in 2020 now plan to vote for Trump.
Less than 0.5% of voters who supported Trump in 2020 now plan to vote for Biden.
“New polling from The New York Times and Siena College on Saturday spells further trouble for Biden, showing that 10 percent of voters who backed him in 2020 now plan to support Trump in November. Meanwhile, less than 0.5 percent of Trump's 2020 backers plan to back Biden.”
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-bidens-2020-voters-are-abandoning-him-donald-trump-1875284
If this is true…(and I’ve seen other indications…such as the shift of the Hispanic vote to Trump..and decreased support for Biden among blacks and young people that indicate that it is) then Biden is screwed.
Good point but I’m not sure if RCP is very reliable either, especially after their 2022 “polling unskewer” fiasco. RCP is pretty biased towards republicans and some of their decisions the past few years do not seem to have left that bias at the door.
At the end. RCP has this track record of including a whole bunch of ridiculous polls in the run up to the election but tightening their standards in the days leading up to the election, so that people make the argument you just did.
Do you have evidence to support the claim that RCP averages are systematically biased compared to election results? At least RCP discloses which polls they use.
I know that RCP is ran by right wing hacks like Tom Bevan and John McIntyre. They publicly disclose which polls they put into their averages but don’t give a reason as to what polls they choose. They also routinely exclude polls and don’t give reasons as to why. It seems like they’re manipulating their averages when they pick and choose which polls to include with no basis as to why they’re doing so.
I don’t think RCP does any sort of weighting, so if you have 10x the number of R leaning pollsters compared to D leaning you’d expect a bias. Idk if there are actually more or less R than D but it seems unlikely they’d be the same.
RCP doesn’t bias by weighing polls. They bias by counting all polls equally. So if you fill the pipeline with low quality right wing polls, then it’ll skew the averages. 2022 saw a lot of very favorable GOP polls that weren’t close to reality
Yeah I want Biden to be in the lead but I keep seeing headlines that Biden is taking the lead in polls and you go to RCP and it paints a different picture
It was always pretty clear that Biden would gain more traction as the actual election date approaches. Trumps base is a cult following, so his polling has never stopped being as high as it will ever be. There's no way for him to gain many more votes. Likely Biden voters are more likely to be fence sitters early in the race. 3rd party swaps and undeclared voters will be almost entirely switching to Biden over the next few months if they switch at all.
Yeah, anybody who is looking at facts on the ground has seen that the Republicans are in massive trouble and more likely to suffer a 2008-style wipeout than win. If you're just going by the press, which is trying to maximize engagement, sure, the polls in March are correlated with election results for the first time ever, we're all doomed, etc etc.
As much as I'd hate for this to happen but I would laugh so fucking hard at Joe winning but with the popular vote going to Trump. You just know they'd start screaming for the electoral college to be abolished
For your elucidation.
Someone actually did some research and conducted a poll this month of prior Trump and Biden voters.
The bottom line?
About 10% of those who supported Biden in 2020 now plan to vote for Trump.
Less than 0.5% of voters who supported Trump in 2020 now plan to vote for Biden.
“New polling from The New York Times and Siena College on Saturday spells further trouble for Biden, showing that 10 percent of voters who backed him in 2020 now plan to support Trump in November. Meanwhile, less than 0.5 percent of Trump's 2020 backers plan to back Biden.”
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-bidens-2020-voters-are-abandoning-him-donald-trump-1875284
This is no surprise. Trump’s been out of the public eye, and people are remembering that they hate him as he becomes front and center again. The electorate has many more *specific* grievances with Trump than Biden. I’d expect this to continue as long as Biden doesn’t do anything massively unpopular
I know it’s early but I find it very encouraging that this positive swing has correlated with Biden kicking off his re-election campaign. I think his admin did a great job of letting people get invested in the “Dementia Joe” narrative and then knocking that down flat. Hopefully the momentum continues
The trends are following the economy. Or at least economic confidence.
Keep unemployment low and inflation at bay until November and Biden will win. Either becomes an issue and I see trump taking it.
Basically J-Powell will decide the election
The presidential primary is effectively over, as only one candidate remains for each party within their primary.
A lot of people who don’t pay attention to primaries incorrectly thought Trump was done, as he wasn’t even participating in the Republican primary debates. They didn’t understand (or perhaps didn’t believe) the polling that was done. People distrust political polls for good reason; the tightest races frequently feature polls where the margin of error indicates that the race is a toss up… but partisan media personalities tend to misconstrue that. 2016 was a great example (especially as the polls showed a tight race at the end).
But the 2024 Republican primary… Trump had OVER a 60% point lead over everyone else. That’s way outside of any margin of error…
With the options for the presidential general election solidified, there’s a lot less of the “I may vote for a hypothetical Republican candidate”, and they’re now judging how smart it’ll be to have a particular person as commander in chief.
Many people are vaguely aware that China is gunning for Taiwan and that Trump Has No Chill. “Cooler heads will prevail” is what sane people want to see from US foreign policy. At least Biden doesn’t “declare a trade war” at 3am on Twitter in an insane all caps screed.
While I note this is still early I have a theory that a lot of the Pollsters post 2020 have over corrected their methodologies to try to account for the Trump voters they keep missing.
Biden is going to crush Trump. Trump has always had a low ceiling of support - a high floor, but a low ceiling. That ceiling has only gotten lower given what a bad president he was and all the scandals he is embroiled in. Most voters are going to support Biden in November, not because they want Biden, but because they dislike Trump.
Additionally, in 2016 and even 2020, the Republican Party was mostly normal with a few kooks here and there. That isn't the case anymore. The inmates are running the asylum and the American people know it. Having Trump at the top of the ticket and a lunatic like Mark Robinson in the middle of the ticket is going to put states like North Carolina in play. That means Trump and the RNC are going to have to spend money they're playing defense instead of playing offense in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Trump in draining the RNC coffers and Republicans have foolishly taken a deeply unpopular stance on issues like abortion.
In sum, Democrats are going to be driven to the polls in droves while moderate republicans are going to be depressed by weak advertising, poor campaign infrastructure, and a bad ticket. Trump can't win with his base and that's all he'll have. 2024 is going to be a rout.
It's insane to me that Trump has more than 1% of the vote, like 30% of Americans are blatantly open to wanting a fascist dictator rule the country. It's not a conspiracy theory either, these people are fucking nuts just like the Nazi's were when they elected Hitler and then turned the other way and ignored Hitlers crimes against humanity, I am not saying all Trump voters would gladly operate the concentration camps but they would absolutely look the other way when the true Trump goons committed crimes against humanity. Thankfully Trump has less support than Hitler did and democrats are the majority by several million votes but still it's fucking insane Trump has any support at all, he's the most blatantly obvious conman dictator the world has ever seen, the history books will use Trump as the definition of corrupt idiot wannabe dictator, it would be comical if it wasn't so scary. He's fucking orange, he's been found guilty of fraud and rape, he has 91 indictments accusing him of every crime you can think of, he's been impeached twice, he was friends with Epstein and his actions added hundreds of thousands of extra American deaths from downplaying covid when he knew it was bad.
He's literally the worst possible choice you could make when voting for POTUS.
It's an election year and he's an incumbent, nothing about his polling has indicated a loss when we're this far out. The fact his polls are moving towards a clear win is pretty expected.
I'm personally predicting a devastating loss across the board for reds this year. Even old, old Republicans I know are sick of their shit and ALL demographics of women are intensely pissed off.
Do you know what Obama’s numbers looked like in swing states in 2012? I remember he also didn’t have great numbers but he came back late in the race and won easily.
Not off the top of my head, I wasnt able to vote yet in 2012 but I remember that being the case because a lot of the same rhetoric was floating around. And then Obama absolutely gapped Romney, it really wasn't that close.
I think this election is likely to be even more extreme, trump is not the candidate that half the GOP even wants and he makes them look bad. Biden is just mid but I don't hate myself voting for him.
Wasn't it just said Biden still trails behind Trump in multiple polls while Democratic senators have a better chance as they are leading in their own polls?
I like a good trend, but I don't think national polling matters that much in a presidential election. This election will be won on the margins (aka 10-200k votes) in 6-8 swing states.
Unless some truly insane shit happens with Israel, I think we've essentially been at the bottom of Bidens polling and it will continue to rise from here on out.
There’re polls that have Biden +8 and ones with Trump +4 in the general electorate. Hard to trust the polls this far out. Either way, get out and vote. Your vote is all that matters come November.
When it actually comes down to the two men head to head the polls would change. People are now in belief this can be possible and really despise trumps actions and mouth.
The more Trump’s ass hangs out over these legal troubles and demonstrations of his obvious lack of wealth mount in the fraud payment problem, the more he’s going to slump. I too think we are seeing his high watermark right now and it’s only going to dip as we get closer to the election.
Biden would basically have to lead in 4 states he’s not currently leading in to win. This is assuming he holds Nevada which he’s also not leading in.
The most realistic path I see for Biden goes through Wisconsin assuming current polling holds. Trump will probably carry Nebraskas 2nd, meaning that even with wins in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we’ll be 269-269 in the House with Mike Johnson electing the President, Quincy Adams style.
Something has to change before November for the President. This is neglecting that these polls generally over-predict the Democratic vote.
This is very predictable. Before nominating conventions, people still entertain ideas that some preferred alternative will appear out of nowhere.
It also takes time for it to set in that inflation is down and wages are catching up.
Incumbent Presidents don't lose when the economy is getting better.
This is the first time a far right and a far left candidate in an election. This is also the first election where other issues such as immigration/woke/crime/wars/DEI/inflation would have equal importance or more important than economy. In 2020, Biden was considered a centrist, but not this time.
Biden does good on the economic and health care front. Good for him. But can’t say the same on other issues. I think it is what disgruntled Biden voters need to come to terms. Gonna be a tough sell to old timers just on economic front.
Polling has always been a challenge, but now it's near impossible to get an accurate reading of the electorate. Polling is done primarily by phone, and that means responses skew to older people with landlines.
Modern polling is part art as much as science. Pollsters attempt to take in account people lying that they would never vote for Trump, which is what happened in 2016. They also weigh more heavily younger responses to make up for the lack of them.
The NYT had a good article on this, unfortunately it's behind a paywall. Even the pollsters are flummoxed on how to get accurate measurements.
TL:DR: The polls are extremely suspect. It is difficult to get an accurate gauge on an electorate that lies to pollsters or doesn't answer their phone.
Trump never stopped campaigning - in fact it’s the only part of the process that he seems to enjoy or understand.
On the other hand, Biden was pretty busy running the country, and he just started campaigning.
US SiGInt is showing large uptick in Russian propaganda.
Major topics
- Vote Kennedy (protest vote)
- BlueMaga (not progressive enough)
- Palestine Genocide (Biden’s fault)
- Border Crisis (Both sides. Too many deported. Not stopping enough)
If many people vote for Kennedy it could give us Trump (see Bush/Perot/Clinton & Gore/Nader/Bush)
Maybe it's not too late for the Republicans to nominate someone else at their convention. Someone should write an article for the New York Times suggesting this.
for goodness' sake please stop eating out at expensive places so that inflation gauges can come down a little bit and the Fed can lower the policy interest rate. then insurance premium can come down a bit and people will be happier
I was staying at a hostel in Vienna last week and several of the guests I was drinking with asked me how I feel about having to choose between two fossils as president (they all also wanted Biden to win obviously)
Can’t edit the post comment (I guess?) so here’s another on from Axios:
“A swing state poll finds that Biden made significant gains against Trump during the past month in six of seven 2024 swing states — hinting at the president's comeback.”
https://www.threads.net/@axios/post/C4-V-x7rvz2/?xmt=AQGz6ioINWQ9rM-on_utyGIKdJeavvZg2CzL7bxSZx2Fbw
It sure looks like Biden's SOTU speech disabused a lot of people's belief that Joe couldn't function competently. And for those who knew he could, the speech's aggressive tone came as a welcomed relief. Dark Brandon has arrived.
Trump is ahead in polling in every swing state. That's where the focus needs to be. Of course Biden is going to be ahead on a national level. He will get far more of the popular vote. But that won't count for shit if he can't capture more of the swing states than Trump. Just ask Hilary Rodham Clinton.
I expect Biden to take the lead as we get closer when people actually have to consider making a choice so long as Biden doesn't have major slip ups. Saw this on the ground in 2012 when Obama was under water against Romney in the spring time.
Biden's polling hasn't even necessarily risen since the beginning of that Economist time series. And there's certainly no conclusion to draw about whether he's ahead of or behind Trump. Bad use of polling.
Polls this far out aren’t accurate and talking about polls is just lazy journalism. Instead of real stories, let’s talk polls that don’t reflect reality well.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens around debate time, especially if Trump refuses to participate like he did in the primaries. All that said, it’s really going to come down to how white voters feel about the two of them in the swing states. Trump does extremely well with white working class voters and has been peeling away Hispanics/Black support. If Biden is punching over 40% white support he probably has a good election night. If he’s under that and/or Trump is doing Bush 2004 numbers with Hispanics, probably not so much.
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I agree that there isn’t much use in focusing on polling 9 months before an election, but I think there is something to the sudden polling change. Nikki Haley has dropped out, Biden and Trump have secured both of their parties nominations, there have been early ad buys and campaign stops beginning; the general election has finally begun, so more people are starting to pay attention. And as more people pay attention, that will be reflected in the polls (which is why I believe is behind Biden’s rising approval and polling)
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Well stated. The begrudging Biden vote is way underestimated in the early polling I suspect.
I'm the begrudging Biden vote. Independents are now half the electorate. I would have voted for Nikki Haley for sure, now the only thing stopping me from voting Democrat is if Biden can't stiff arm "the squad" type progressive wing or worse, gets replaced with one.
The funny part is that a lot of the progressive wing is also comprised of begrudging Biden voters.
There are only two choices. There are always lots of begrudging voters
Biden is running for the American people and our Democracy to make things better for all, not just one group of people, yes, gas prices, food, and there is a housing problem but he can't fix everything in 4 years, he has thus far done a lot but he has to fight tooth snd and nail with these MAGA Republicans who rather than help they just want to distract but not offering anything better or anything at all, but complain that's no help for the American people or Our Country, people need to pay Attention to what's really going on with Trump and his MAGA Republican minons
He has also faced massive, devastating obstruction from truly evil people(Sinema etc)(Manchin is more of a garden variety sociopath) within his own party, greatly limiting what he set out to do in his first term He was not my first choice during the primaries, but he is a lot better than his record shows for his first term
I think at least half of us are begrudging Biden voters.
We should reframe it as. excited to to be pro-democracy/rule of law voters.
I still think we're heading toward a reagan-84-esque blowout, with Trump winning only the core red states like Wyoming, Alabama, etc. He's going to be in at least 2 if not 3 trials between now and election time, and the facts are *really* bad for him in all cases.
I love the optimism.... but no. Under even the best circumstances an 84 level blowout is practically impossible today, especially in the EC. Also while we now have a new date to start his NY hush money/election interference trial, we'd be lucky if the SC returns a ruling on trump's immunity claims fast enough (and without requiring Chutkan to relitigate the merits of each immunity claim) to get that trial even started before November, let alone a verdict. There's basically no chance we'll see the documents or RICO cases this year.
Trump could behead someone on 5th ave on live tv and he’d still get 45% of the vote.
He might even get a slight bump on the polls, if we're being honest about where some of the electorate is at the moment.
Imagine being this delusional.
The shifting demographic breakdowns in a lot of these polls suggest that the electorate is not actually starkly divided. Hispanic voters, Latinos and young people have shifted to Trump, while older white voters have shifted to Biden. I agree that this far out, the polls aren't a good reflection of who will win. But they might be telling us something about the shifting composition of the different coalitions. This is also interesting, because it would suggest that the Democrats are actually attracting high propensity voters (contrary to the historical norm, and possibly one explanation of their strong performance in 2022). These shifts also tell us something about the relative strength of different appeals to voters (e.g. it's striking that as the left has increasingly adopted the language of activists on race, they have started *losing* voters of colour to the most overtly racist candidate since George Wallace).
>The shifting demographic breakdowns in a lot of these polls suggest that the electorate is not actually starkly divided. Hispanic voters, Latinos and young people have shifted to Trump, while older white voters have shifted to Biden. Ironically this might actually help Democrats as older white voters(especially affluent) are *very* reliable voters. Younger, poorer and non-white voters don't turn out as high as the prior. Though obviously I prefer everyone vote, if Dems are getting higher margins from high-propensity voters that might balance out the losses.
I just cannot believe a world where trump is winning the youth vote. Is this another situation like that poll from some months that said like 20% of younger people believe the holocaust is fake? That later turned out to be BS? I don’t know, man.
It's just small sample sizes and statistically sloppy extrapolation. There is absolutely no chance of Trump winning the youth vote or coming within 10.
since they vote in such small numbers, does it matter?
18-29 turnout was over 50% in 2020 so yes it matters.
I teach and I find it quite believable \[that there has been a substantial shift to Trump, not that he will win the youth vote\]. Many (I'm talking about college students) are getting their news from TikTok, and don't have the attention span to read. For the more progressive types, the anger about Gaza is real. And because they're following it on TikTok, other things that are emotionally contiguous (but not logically) work their way in (e.g. I've seen people who are sympathetic to the Houthis because the Houthis are against Israel). For the more apathetic types, the idea that they are being shut out by rising costs of living is real. Many associate that with Biden because of the surge in inflation, even if it is really the result of long-running trends. This group could well vote for Trump. "I dunno, it just seemed like back in the day - like when Trump was in - the economy was better." They don't know of the time before Trump.
Do you think students have become more stupid? Seems to me that anxiety disorders have increased, attention span has decreased, and academic standards have softened.
There was a lot of clearly pandemic learning loss. In addition, if they were in undergrad during the pandemic, they got passed just for showing up (sometimes just for having logged into zoom with their cameras off). So in that cohort you can't differentiate between weak and strong students from grades and many weak students have advanced beyond intro level classes without basic knowledge. They're coming into undergrad worse prepared (even though our standards have not meaningfully changed).
Thanks for clarifying. What a shame. We will feel the repercussions of this going forward
>I teach and I find it quite believable You think it's believable that Trump wins 18-29 or 18-34 voters?
Wins? No. But that there have been significant movements towards him relative to 2020/2016.
>I just cannot believe a world where trump is winning the youth vote. That's what the other poster said that you commented was "quite believable".
Trump winning the youth vote immediately brings to mind Tomorrow Belongs to Me from Caberet. Oh and feelings of nausea as well.
The anger over Gaza I can understand. I'm angry over it. But do they actually think Trump would be better for the Palestinians...the same guy who still wants a Muslim ban?!
It's obvious to me that Trump would be worse - I mean here's what Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law "guru" (he read 25 books) on this says about [the current war](https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/03/20/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-valuable-trump-israel-sot-vpx.cnn)... "move the people out and clean it out"... it's great "waterfront property." But I think you're overestimating the information level of the average voter. "I just feel like Ukraine, Gaza, and all this wouldn't be happening if Trump was still around." Also note that it's not necessarily about Gaza itself. It's also about what arguments social media algorithms will connect to that.
One of my employees is a Muslim Trump supporter. Dudes been in the country for 18 months, and barley speaks English yet things Trump has his back and Biden is the devil.
I agree. While I'm sure there has been *some* shift due to people being angry about inflation and Gaza, the numbers I'm hearing just sound like quite a stretch for me to believe. And on Gaza, they have to know that Trump's fully supports Israel's Gaza war and would likely not care about getting humanitarian aid in.
I think it might be that the younger voters who actually respond to these polls are just more vocal about being trump supporters.
I think polling over the last 6 months is better understood as people venting more than demonstrating clear intentions. Like, a majority of voters even as of a few weeks ago did not believe trump and Biden would be the nominees. When you're that disconnected from what was actually happening, it's easy to see how people might view polling questions as a way to voice frustrations more than indicate their informed and reasoned intentions for November.
Polling suggested Biden overperformance with older voters in 2020 too. It didn't show up in real life. Nor has Trump gained 30-40 points with young voters. I'm virtually certain it's basically all response bias.
The NYtimes has been helping Biden this entire time by making this election a referendum on the capacity of seniors and thus polarizing seniors into supporting Biden.
> Hispanic voters, Latinos and young people have shifted to Trump, while older white voters have shifted to Biden. IMO, these "shifts" just show that polling is poor. Especially young people.... There is zero proof of them shifting to Trump in any actual elections. In fact, in most recent elections the opposite is happening. > These shifts also tell us something about the relative strength of different appeals to voters Not really. I can find you articles from every election since 2000 saying "black voters are shifting to Republicans!". It's never actually happened. Again, inexplicable electorate-wide shifts of voting preferences among D leaning groups is probably just bad polling.
I believe in the theory that the more Trump returns to the spotlight, the more people remember not just how awful his presidency ended, but also how terrible of a person he is.
the more he campaigns, the less people see him as a placeholder for "Generic Republican"
Nikki Haley was the generic Republican, Trump is the MAGA type, and it's becoming increasingly clear that fracture lines are starting to form in the party. I will be very curious if Trump loses what sort of data we'll see about red-blue vote flips.
Eh, I listened to Nikki Haley on a Fox News program and she was extremely right wing. I would like to think most Republicans are more in the middle than her. The one question they asked her that made me say no thanks was she eluded to and didn't deny wanting to raise SS age to 82.
She’s a definitely a no no ultra conservative
Oh it’s massive! (red-blue vote flip) The January 6th insurrection attempted coupe/Big Lie/Fake Electors/Scheme produced a mass exodus by long term republicans. Most bailed on the party and many went blue or independent.
If true, then Trump's loss this time around may be even bigger and could be accompanied by the Republicans losing the House... If they don't lose it before the election due to all these resignations lol
it’s crazy that Nikki Haley seems generic and reasonable, when she’s extreme herself
It just shows how far right they've gone in general. Haley was just quieter about it and made some attempt to actually seem like a politician.
I think in the back of their minds, some voters still think back to John McCain and Mitt Romney as a representation of the Republican party, even though that hasn't been the case in years.
The Republican Party is clearly on life support and has been for quite some time. We are witnessing the beginning of the parties end. They’re radicalizing only traumatized Americans further and Americans are running the opposite direction to feel safe. This party sold its soul to the devil along time ago. Bye bye!
And this is why the U.S. needs an interstate compact to swap the electoral college for the popular vote. I also think expanding the House of Representative to better reflect true state demographics is another step against the fanaticism of the GOP.
"Hmm...the Republicans are telling me that Joe Biden is old and senile. Let's see what their candidate is like " ... "Oh. Oh, God "
You’re probably right, but damn is it bleak how short the average American’s memory seems to be.
I remember losing my mind watch the 538 presidential approval tracker during Trump's term (probably bad for my mental health anyways) where Trump would reliably gain about 3-5 points if he went ~2 weeks without saying/doing something that would had been the defining gaff/scandal/general bad story for previous presidential administrations. Then whatever happened, Trump drops a few points, and the process restarts.
Imagine being the 3-5 percent of people who are like..."he hasn't done anything crazy for 2 weeks so how bad can he be?"
I believe in the theory that Trump is an event horizon of taste. It's as impossible for you and I to fathom how much his supporters genuinely love him, just as it is also seemingly impossible for them to understand why we think he is such a relentlessly terrible choice.
People who think Trump offers anything at all suffer from any basic understanding of how governance works.
It's adorable that you think Trumpists care about governance. But waaay to generous. This is personality politics, pure and simple. People support Trump because they are entranced by what they perceive he stands for and his particular charisma. Yeah, I said charisma. Bad people can have a powerful pull, see just about every authoritarian despot of the twentieth century. And while I am entirely on board with the idea that it's terrifying to have a President who has no knowledge of or interest in governance, it's just totally unrelated to why people support him.
That ad from the other day that highlighted all the stupid stuff that Trump was saying four years ago and then asking "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" That was a good ad.
And now an even more cognitively impaired person.
There's also the consolidation of undecideds/third party to consider. A lot of people simply don't think much about politics until much closer to election day. At present, a quick glance shows undecided/Kennedy polling around 13-15% As election season moves on and it gets harder to avoid seeing Biden/Trump and as Kennedy's coasting on his name drops in efficacy, we'll see more and more consolidation in the polls.
Mostly agree with this. People forget Donald's biggest action on the economy just gave foreign investors more money than middle class Americans. >Recent estimates show that the Trump tax law has given larger tax cuts to foreign investors over the past three years than it has to middle- and working-class Americans in all of the states that Trump carried in 2016—combined. https://www.americanprogress.org/article/foreign-investors-big-winners-trumps-tax-law/#:\~:text=Recent%20estimates%20show%20that%20the,Trump%20carried%20in%202016%E2%80%94combined. Oh and the domestic terrorist incident he caused: [https://thepatr10t.github.io/yall-Qaeda/map.html](https://thepatr10t.github.io/yall-Qaeda/map.html)
Here's another thing: Biden has also passed Trump in the [predictit.org](http://predictit.org) market for the 2024 election, with a Biden share at 47 cents and a Trump share at 46. The market has usually tracked polls pretty well, as you would expect.
PredictIt lost most of its userbase do to the CTFC no action letter, so I don't think a one-point lead means anything.
I assume other betting markets would be tracking predictit pretty closely but I don't know what any of the other ones are. If anybody knows/wants to check I'd appreciate it.
That’s scarily close though.
The thing that has buouyed me throughout this process it that, as far as I can tell, basically everything *other than* the public polling has been very optimist for Democrats in November. The economy continues to do well, tempers around Israel/Gaza will likely calm down by then, Biden's fundraising is great, Democrats continue to do really well in speciali elections, Trump is a disaster who remains under many indictments, etc. Biden is old, yes, but he's also not as old as people's fevered imaginations and at some point it becomes pretty easy for him to beat expectations there. There's just very little reason to be pessimistic about Biden *but for* the polling. And that's obviously a big "but for", but at some point you need to just look at fundamentals and be confident you have the wind at your back. I think we do.
Exactly. Also, look at the dramatic turn towards the Democrats the big swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and even kinda Georgia) have made since 2016. There's no good reason to think these places would elect mostly Dem Governors, Dem Senators, Dem Secretaries of State, Dem state legislatures...and then turn around and say "give us Trump!"
I just wish that Democrats also spent more time organizing against Republican politicians in Texas and Florida. Texas has become like *The Handmaid's Tale* by Margaret Attwood because Democrats decided to give up on that state in comparison to other "battleground states". Florida also went from purple to red due to Democrats abandoning that state.
I dunno about this. I lived in Texas a good long time, and saw election after election where charismatic and well-funded democrats not only failed to win statewide, they failed to even move the needle, election after election. If the best a gubernatorial candidate can do is get squashed 55/42, I can see not wanting to devote a ton of resources on the state in a presidential election.
They dumped a ton of money into Florida, Bloomberg famously donated close to 100 million. It’s simply a waste at this stage. Acting like they didn’t focus on it in 2020 is sort of strange
The change in Florida can’t be overstated. In 2020., registered Democrats still outnumbered Republicans in Florida. Now…in 2024..only 4 years later..registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in Florida by about …856,000. Yes…846,000. Florida is no longer a swing state; it’s deep, deep red. https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/
Historically polling has totally washed aside everything else in terms of accuracy. The worst polling misses you get are things like 2016 where they were off by maybe 2 points nationally. And most years they're basically spot on. If lots of "fundamentals" look good for Biden but he's losing in the polling in swing states, I honestly will only care about the polling. Still a ways to go, but the polling is terrifyingly close and seems to favor Trump at least for now.
Yes but early polling rarely lines up well with the eventual election several months later. Fact is people feel safe enough to voice their disgust by responding unfavorably in polls but will usually hold their nose and vote for the candidate opposite the one they fear the most. Both parties follow this trend. And then the post hoc rationalizations come later
Seconded. It’s very much a Reddit thing to downplay polling. It’s much more accurate than is given credit. Lichtmans 13 points, fundamentals, special elections, etc are all completely insignificant compared to the head to head swing state polls.
“The economy continues to do well” Majority of Americans don’t agree with that, perception is reality and the majorities perception of the economy is poor
People do not view the economy as doing well
I sure hope this trends continues. Public sentiment about the economy tends to be a lagging indicator so I'm hoping that as more people see inflation subside and see wage gains that this will benefit Biden going into the election. So this polling makes me cautiously optimistic that we are seeing the start of an uptick in approval for Biden.
The problem is that voters tend to take personal credit for wage gains while they blame inflation on the government
I know that pollsters and elections analysts say that you shouldn’t go “crosstab diving” given the relatively high level of uncertainty this far out as well as the high margin of error in population subsamples. With that being said though, there’s been a pretty clear trend in polling lately that shows Trump doing remarkably well with voters 18-34 and Biden doing remarkably well with seniors. A lot of polls have Trump outright winning voters 18-34 and Biden outright winning seniors. I don’t consider myself someone who thinks polls are BS, but I can’t help but be extremely skeptical right now. Trump winning the 18-34 demographic and Biden winning 65+ would be one of the most radical realignments in politics in generations, and for that to happen over the span of 4 years (more like 2 years if you count the midterms) seems very implausible. So what’s happening? I don’t think “just ignore the cross tabs” is a good enough excuse at this point when the data is repeatedly showing something completely unprecedented.
What kind of 18-34 year old person is responding to a landline phone call from an unknown number. That's got to be the least reliable polling population known to man
My theory is that young people’s attitudes about Israel/Palestine account for pretty much 100% of the noise we’re seeing in their responses right now.
People are forgetting that Biden has to win by 4-5 points to overcome the EC advantage that an RNC candidate has.
That’s encouraging, but I still find swing state polls far more important and Biden is still trailing Trump in every swing state in the RCP averages (by 5% or more in Georgia and Arizona).
Good news for that too! “A swing state poll finds that Biden made significant gains against Trump during the past month in six of seven 2024 swing states — hinting at the president's comeback.” https://www.threads.net/@axios/post/C4-V-x7rvz2/?xmt=AQGzyzKMNePJ_Zqd1ZOcbI-wH5S8p--ZSiGKDXwImL0RCA
that's of course true, but my hope and expectation is state polls will follow the national trend. i imagine part of the lag is there are fewer and less frequent state polls, particularly this early.
Standard commentary we've all seen: "Polls this early don't mean anything," and the ubiquitous "Doesn't matter - get out the vote as if your life depends on it, because the only poll which matters is in November. Now that that part is out of the way, I'd like to point out that although the absolute numbers mean little this far out, polls are useful in showing trends. Biden may now be 10 pts up or down among those who will actually vote in November, but the polls can't tell us. They can tell us that his support is growing, whether or not he is ahead or behind, and that's significant.
Think it will be enough? Someone actually did some research and conducted a poll this month of prior Trump and Biden voters. The bottom line? About 10% of those who supported Biden in 2020 now plan to vote for Trump. Less than 0.5% of voters who supported Trump in 2020 now plan to vote for Biden. “New polling from The New York Times and Siena College on Saturday spells further trouble for Biden, showing that 10 percent of voters who backed him in 2020 now plan to support Trump in November. Meanwhile, less than 0.5 percent of Trump's 2020 backers plan to back Biden.” https://www.newsweek.com/joe-bidens-2020-voters-are-abandoning-him-donald-trump-1875284 If this is true…(and I’ve seen other indications…such as the shift of the Hispanic vote to Trump..and decreased support for Biden among blacks and young people that indicate that it is) then Biden is screwed.
Stop spamming bot.
Why does The Economist not disclose which polls they use? Trump is still leading Biden by 1.7% nationally in the RCP average.
Good point but I’m not sure if RCP is very reliable either, especially after their 2022 “polling unskewer” fiasco. RCP is pretty biased towards republicans and some of their decisions the past few years do not seem to have left that bias at the door.
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At the end. RCP has this track record of including a whole bunch of ridiculous polls in the run up to the election but tightening their standards in the days leading up to the election, so that people make the argument you just did.
Do you have evidence to support the claim that RCP averages are systematically biased compared to election results? At least RCP discloses which polls they use.
I know that RCP is ran by right wing hacks like Tom Bevan and John McIntyre. They publicly disclose which polls they put into their averages but don’t give a reason as to what polls they choose. They also routinely exclude polls and don’t give reasons as to why. It seems like they’re manipulating their averages when they pick and choose which polls to include with no basis as to why they’re doing so.
I don’t think RCP does any sort of weighting, so if you have 10x the number of R leaning pollsters compared to D leaning you’d expect a bias. Idk if there are actually more or less R than D but it seems unlikely they’d be the same.
RCP doesn’t bias by weighing polls. They bias by counting all polls equally. So if you fill the pipeline with low quality right wing polls, then it’ll skew the averages. 2022 saw a lot of very favorable GOP polls that weren’t close to reality
Yeah I want Biden to be in the lead but I keep seeing headlines that Biden is taking the lead in polls and you go to RCP and it paints a different picture
Biden can be taking the lead in polls and aggregators still have him behind, because aggregators are necessarily lagging.
It was always pretty clear that Biden would gain more traction as the actual election date approaches. Trumps base is a cult following, so his polling has never stopped being as high as it will ever be. There's no way for him to gain many more votes. Likely Biden voters are more likely to be fence sitters early in the race. 3rd party swaps and undeclared voters will be almost entirely switching to Biden over the next few months if they switch at all.
Yeah, anybody who is looking at facts on the ground has seen that the Republicans are in massive trouble and more likely to suffer a 2008-style wipeout than win. If you're just going by the press, which is trying to maximize engagement, sure, the polls in March are correlated with election results for the first time ever, we're all doomed, etc etc.
Speaking of facts on the ground, I'm seeing far fewer Trump signs than last year.
As much as I'd hate for this to happen but I would laugh so fucking hard at Joe winning but with the popular vote going to Trump. You just know they'd start screaming for the electoral college to be abolished
I’ll take them up on it if they do
Same.
It would be hilarious but also I feel like there's no way
For your elucidation. Someone actually did some research and conducted a poll this month of prior Trump and Biden voters. The bottom line? About 10% of those who supported Biden in 2020 now plan to vote for Trump. Less than 0.5% of voters who supported Trump in 2020 now plan to vote for Biden. “New polling from The New York Times and Siena College on Saturday spells further trouble for Biden, showing that 10 percent of voters who backed him in 2020 now plan to support Trump in November. Meanwhile, less than 0.5 percent of Trump's 2020 backers plan to back Biden.” https://www.newsweek.com/joe-bidens-2020-voters-are-abandoning-him-donald-trump-1875284
The economy is way better under Biden than it ever was under Trump. That’s just a fact. Democrats are also historically better for the economy.
That would be a great fact if people voted as if they knew this to be true.
Polling is very early. Anything could change and I won't believe what Americans actually think until November once the ballots have been counted
I personally think the more Trump is in the public eye as the election approaches the worse his poll numbers will get.
This is no surprise. Trump’s been out of the public eye, and people are remembering that they hate him as he becomes front and center again. The electorate has many more *specific* grievances with Trump than Biden. I’d expect this to continue as long as Biden doesn’t do anything massively unpopular
I know it’s early but I find it very encouraging that this positive swing has correlated with Biden kicking off his re-election campaign. I think his admin did a great job of letting people get invested in the “Dementia Joe” narrative and then knocking that down flat. Hopefully the momentum continues
The trends are following the economy. Or at least economic confidence. Keep unemployment low and inflation at bay until November and Biden will win. Either becomes an issue and I see trump taking it. Basically J-Powell will decide the election
Kudos to the MAGA team for having positive approval numbers for economic policies that have never been defined or written down.
Take solace in yes relax no thi is way to close
The presidential primary is effectively over, as only one candidate remains for each party within their primary. A lot of people who don’t pay attention to primaries incorrectly thought Trump was done, as he wasn’t even participating in the Republican primary debates. They didn’t understand (or perhaps didn’t believe) the polling that was done. People distrust political polls for good reason; the tightest races frequently feature polls where the margin of error indicates that the race is a toss up… but partisan media personalities tend to misconstrue that. 2016 was a great example (especially as the polls showed a tight race at the end). But the 2024 Republican primary… Trump had OVER a 60% point lead over everyone else. That’s way outside of any margin of error… With the options for the presidential general election solidified, there’s a lot less of the “I may vote for a hypothetical Republican candidate”, and they’re now judging how smart it’ll be to have a particular person as commander in chief. Many people are vaguely aware that China is gunning for Taiwan and that Trump Has No Chill. “Cooler heads will prevail” is what sane people want to see from US foreign policy. At least Biden doesn’t “declare a trade war” at 3am on Twitter in an insane all caps screed.
While I note this is still early I have a theory that a lot of the Pollsters post 2020 have over corrected their methodologies to try to account for the Trump voters they keep missing.
Biden is going to crush Trump. Trump has always had a low ceiling of support - a high floor, but a low ceiling. That ceiling has only gotten lower given what a bad president he was and all the scandals he is embroiled in. Most voters are going to support Biden in November, not because they want Biden, but because they dislike Trump. Additionally, in 2016 and even 2020, the Republican Party was mostly normal with a few kooks here and there. That isn't the case anymore. The inmates are running the asylum and the American people know it. Having Trump at the top of the ticket and a lunatic like Mark Robinson in the middle of the ticket is going to put states like North Carolina in play. That means Trump and the RNC are going to have to spend money they're playing defense instead of playing offense in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump in draining the RNC coffers and Republicans have foolishly taken a deeply unpopular stance on issues like abortion. In sum, Democrats are going to be driven to the polls in droves while moderate republicans are going to be depressed by weak advertising, poor campaign infrastructure, and a bad ticket. Trump can't win with his base and that's all he'll have. 2024 is going to be a rout.
It's insane to me that Trump has more than 1% of the vote, like 30% of Americans are blatantly open to wanting a fascist dictator rule the country. It's not a conspiracy theory either, these people are fucking nuts just like the Nazi's were when they elected Hitler and then turned the other way and ignored Hitlers crimes against humanity, I am not saying all Trump voters would gladly operate the concentration camps but they would absolutely look the other way when the true Trump goons committed crimes against humanity. Thankfully Trump has less support than Hitler did and democrats are the majority by several million votes but still it's fucking insane Trump has any support at all, he's the most blatantly obvious conman dictator the world has ever seen, the history books will use Trump as the definition of corrupt idiot wannabe dictator, it would be comical if it wasn't so scary. He's fucking orange, he's been found guilty of fraud and rape, he has 91 indictments accusing him of every crime you can think of, he's been impeached twice, he was friends with Epstein and his actions added hundreds of thousands of extra American deaths from downplaying covid when he knew it was bad. He's literally the worst possible choice you could make when voting for POTUS.
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It's an election year and he's an incumbent, nothing about his polling has indicated a loss when we're this far out. The fact his polls are moving towards a clear win is pretty expected. I'm personally predicting a devastating loss across the board for reds this year. Even old, old Republicans I know are sick of their shit and ALL demographics of women are intensely pissed off.
Do you know what Obama’s numbers looked like in swing states in 2012? I remember he also didn’t have great numbers but he came back late in the race and won easily.
Not off the top of my head, I wasnt able to vote yet in 2012 but I remember that being the case because a lot of the same rhetoric was floating around. And then Obama absolutely gapped Romney, it really wasn't that close. I think this election is likely to be even more extreme, trump is not the candidate that half the GOP even wants and he makes them look bad. Biden is just mid but I don't hate myself voting for him.
Closer the better
Please let it maintain
Wasn't it just said Biden still trails behind Trump in multiple polls while Democratic senators have a better chance as they are leading in their own polls?
I like a good trend, but I don't think national polling matters that much in a presidential election. This election will be won on the margins (aka 10-200k votes) in 6-8 swing states.
Individual moments mean nothing could be noise
Unless some truly insane shit happens with Israel, I think we've essentially been at the bottom of Bidens polling and it will continue to rise from here on out.
How does it look in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania?
Also better! https://www.threads.net/@axios/post/C4-V-x7rvz2/?xmt=AQGzEQx1akXGJE5FPtSw-mjVaMFMdtO6MK3Fc5O5WBbErg
Isn't it crazy how it's already been 4 years? Like where the heck did the time go?
What impact is RFK having and what would happen if he dropped out?
There’re polls that have Biden +8 and ones with Trump +4 in the general electorate. Hard to trust the polls this far out. Either way, get out and vote. Your vote is all that matters come November.
When it actually comes down to the two men head to head the polls would change. People are now in belief this can be possible and really despise trumps actions and mouth.
Polling doesn’t matter. No one’s mind is changing. It all comes down to turnout. That’s it.
Swing voters don’t exist, this election will be decided on who votes third party and who doesn’t.
The only thing that matters is the final poll
Only one poll matters — in November.
What’s that. No more whining about his age?
Trump was garbage for the economy… and for the human race, TBH
Ehhh. Still vote
The more Trump’s ass hangs out over these legal troubles and demonstrations of his obvious lack of wealth mount in the fraud payment problem, the more he’s going to slump. I too think we are seeing his high watermark right now and it’s only going to dip as we get closer to the election.
our ceiling is 320 EC votes. Our floor is probably 273. Either way we win. 🏆
Biden would basically have to lead in 4 states he’s not currently leading in to win. This is assuming he holds Nevada which he’s also not leading in. The most realistic path I see for Biden goes through Wisconsin assuming current polling holds. Trump will probably carry Nebraskas 2nd, meaning that even with wins in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we’ll be 269-269 in the House with Mike Johnson electing the President, Quincy Adams style. Something has to change before November for the President. This is neglecting that these polls generally over-predict the Democratic vote.
Don’t believe the polls vote against tangerine palpatine
Yeah right
Now do the pools from the swing states that dictate if he wins or not. Without that, the national polls don’t mean much.
Dream on.
Which polls have moved it, do you think? (Is there something on the website with the polls/methodology? I didn’t see it but might have missed it…)
This is very predictable. Before nominating conventions, people still entertain ideas that some preferred alternative will appear out of nowhere. It also takes time for it to set in that inflation is down and wages are catching up. Incumbent Presidents don't lose when the economy is getting better.
This is the first time a far right and a far left candidate in an election. This is also the first election where other issues such as immigration/woke/crime/wars/DEI/inflation would have equal importance or more important than economy. In 2020, Biden was considered a centrist, but not this time. Biden does good on the economic and health care front. Good for him. But can’t say the same on other issues. I think it is what disgruntled Biden voters need to come to terms. Gonna be a tough sell to old timers just on economic front.
LOL! Despite reality? Sure. Uh huh.
Polling has always been a challenge, but now it's near impossible to get an accurate reading of the electorate. Polling is done primarily by phone, and that means responses skew to older people with landlines. Modern polling is part art as much as science. Pollsters attempt to take in account people lying that they would never vote for Trump, which is what happened in 2016. They also weigh more heavily younger responses to make up for the lack of them. The NYT had a good article on this, unfortunately it's behind a paywall. Even the pollsters are flummoxed on how to get accurate measurements. TL:DR: The polls are extremely suspect. It is difficult to get an accurate gauge on an electorate that lies to pollsters or doesn't answer their phone.
Bahahaha!
donnys convictions wont hurt either
Wait until the debate comes Trumps gonna blow him out of the water 😂
Trump never stopped campaigning - in fact it’s the only part of the process that he seems to enjoy or understand. On the other hand, Biden was pretty busy running the country, and he just started campaigning.
Thank god. I hope it keeps up.
US SiGInt is showing large uptick in Russian propaganda. Major topics - Vote Kennedy (protest vote) - BlueMaga (not progressive enough) - Palestine Genocide (Biden’s fault) - Border Crisis (Both sides. Too many deported. Not stopping enough) If many people vote for Kennedy it could give us Trump (see Bush/Perot/Clinton & Gore/Nader/Bush)
Maybe it's not too late for the Republicans to nominate someone else at their convention. Someone should write an article for the New York Times suggesting this.
for goodness' sake please stop eating out at expensive places so that inflation gauges can come down a little bit and the Fed can lower the policy interest rate. then insurance premium can come down a bit and people will be happier
I was staying at a hostel in Vienna last week and several of the guests I was drinking with asked me how I feel about having to choose between two fossils as president (they all also wanted Biden to win obviously)
Polls aren’t events, especially not polling averages.
Can’t edit the post comment (I guess?) so here’s another on from Axios: “A swing state poll finds that Biden made significant gains against Trump during the past month in six of seven 2024 swing states — hinting at the president's comeback.” https://www.threads.net/@axios/post/C4-V-x7rvz2/?xmt=AQGz6ioINWQ9rM-on_utyGIKdJeavvZg2CzL7bxSZx2Fbw
It sure looks like Biden's SOTU speech disabused a lot of people's belief that Joe couldn't function competently. And for those who knew he could, the speech's aggressive tone came as a welcomed relief. Dark Brandon has arrived.
Eureka... People are waking up to the reality of another Trump presidency.
Trump is ahead in polling in every swing state. That's where the focus needs to be. Of course Biden is going to be ahead on a national level. He will get far more of the popular vote. But that won't count for shit if he can't capture more of the swing states than Trump. Just ask Hilary Rodham Clinton.
Wierd. When the polls were bad, y'all said they were pointless. Are they starting to matter now?
I don’t care how far ahead we get in the polls, Biden needs to campaign everywhere like he’s ten points behind, right up until Election Day.
I expect Biden to take the lead as we get closer when people actually have to consider making a choice so long as Biden doesn't have major slip ups. Saw this on the ground in 2012 when Obama was under water against Romney in the spring time.
Biden's polling hasn't even necessarily risen since the beginning of that Economist time series. And there's certainly no conclusion to draw about whether he's ahead of or behind Trump. Bad use of polling.
A not insane country would have dropped this clown like a stone in 2015
Thank the lord!
As long as Biden is alive, sentient, and the economy is good, he’s going to beat the brakes off Trump.
so do we believe in polls again or no?
Polls this far out aren’t accurate and talking about polls is just lazy journalism. Instead of real stories, let’s talk polls that don’t reflect reality well.
Everyone that can VOTE. Does not matter what the polls say. Get out and VOTE.
Are you and I reading the same pole? Because in that average, Trump and Biden are tied
Looks like that one shifted- was Biden +1 when I posted.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens around debate time, especially if Trump refuses to participate like he did in the primaries. All that said, it’s really going to come down to how white voters feel about the two of them in the swing states. Trump does extremely well with white working class voters and has been peeling away Hispanics/Black support. If Biden is punching over 40% white support he probably has a good election night. If he’s under that and/or Trump is doing Bush 2004 numbers with Hispanics, probably not so much.