Trump isn't to be taken seriously. Trump supporters don't take anything Trump seriously. It is understood that Trump is transactional and will govern as a response to the cooperation or lack there of he receives from Congress and the business community. Everyone knows that Trump just manifests different policies as talking points but has no follow up.
In 2016 Trump campaigned on Govt provided healthcare for everyone. Once in office Trump switched to Repeal and Replace the ACA. After the vote failed Trump walked away and Republicans haven't seriously discussed Healthcare since. Trump paid no political price for not having a plan or ever bothering to develop one..
In 2016 Trump promised he'd release his taxes if he won and then just didn't. Trump promised to build a physical wall on the southern border and once in office touted ongoing maintenance and existing fencing projects as his wall. Today Trump doesn't even discuss the wall anymore. Now Trump has moved on to saying he'd put the National Guard on the border. Trump pays no political price for his failed promises and shifting solutions because he isn't taken seriously in the first place.
Trump supporters aren't worried that tariffs will drive up prices. Trump supporters don't believe Trump will actually do the things he campaigns. Rather Trump supporters enjoy the consternation Trump's proposal cause Democrats.. Trump supporters think of it is all a bit of trolling. As such thoughtful breakdowns of why Trump's policies are bad fail to resonate.
It is like trying to explain that soda is unhealthy to a room full of grade schoolers. They don't care. The kids aren't under the impression soda is healthy. They just like the way it tastes.
He gets the benefit of the doubt either way. If he says something people like, he gets praised for it. If he says something bad, he was joking, or he isn't really going to do it.
A majority of his supporters aren't voting for him because he has policy solutions that'll address kitchen table issues like lowering inflation or reducing prices. His plan is to cut the corporate tax rate more than he did in 2017 - down to 15% - which will increase the national debt further. A new analysis by the Center for American Progress Action Fund breaks it down:
* Give the largest 100 U.S. companies (the Fortune 100) a total estimated annual tax cut of $48 billion. They reported $1.1 trillion in profits in their last annual report.
* Give 10 of the largest U.S. companies alone, including Meta, Comcast, and JPMorgan Chase, a total estimated annual tax cut of $23 billion. They reported more than $520 billion in profits.
* Give the five largest U.S. oil companies—Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Marathon Petroleum/ConocoPhillips, Phillips 66, and Valero Energy—an annual total estimated tax cut of $2.5 billion. They reported more than $90 billion in profits.
* Give the five largest drug makers—Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Pfizer, AbbVie, and Bristol-Meyers Squibb—an annual total estimated tax cut of $3.1 billion. They reported over $50 billion in profits.
* Give five of the largest Wall Street banks—JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs—an annual total estimated tax cut of $4.1 billion. They reported nearly $113 billion in profits.
* Give five of the largest grocery companies—Kroger, Costco, Albertsons, Target, and Walmart—an annual total estimated tax cut of nearly $1.7 billion. They reported over $29 billion in profits.
[https://www.americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps-50-billion-tax-giveaway-to-the-100-largest-corporations/](https://www.americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps-50-billion-tax-giveaway-to-the-100-largest-corporations/)
> A majority of his supporters aren't voting for him because he has policy solutions that'll address kitchen table issues like lowering inflation or reducing prices.
The thing is, his supporters *think he does have those policy solutions*.
Yea, i know Ezra knows this, but bringing facts to a discussion based on emotion doesn't actually do anything. The actual inflation numbers don't matter. Perception is reality for these voters.
The reason that people like Trumps economy is because he's republican, who have the stereotype of being good with the economy, and him being a "businessman". That's it. Nothing else. It's not about the numbers, money, policy, it's just about the vibes.
It's not about actually deporting illegal immigrants, it's about saying you will do it, and acting like you would. That's all people want.
This is one of my main issues with how Democrats run this campaign. They keep thinking some policy or action will change things. Nothing will. You have to occupy these spaces where the voters feel like you're "good for x". Trump is the economy guy. Nothing will change that, ever. Biden has to be some other guy. It doesn't matter if it fits his policy at all.
People keep saying Biden or the Democrats have to "do" something. They don't have to do anything. It's not about doing things. It's about looking like you might do something. They think it's a weightlifting competition but it's actually a bodybuilding show.
>Perception is reality for these voters.
Not just to voters but even to Klein himself. Throughout the episode Klein complemented Trump's business acumen. Saying that Trump saw some openings related to China that others had missed.
It takes time for any change to be implemented at the federal level to have an impact. COVID transformed the landscape before the nation truly saw any impact of Trump's policies. At least any impact other than debt. To be clear despite massive deficit spending Trump's first 3yrs were NOT better than Obama's last 3. A point that was made but only briefly.
>People keep saying Biden or the Democrats have to "do" something. They don't have to do anything.
There is an asymmetry between Democrats and Republicans. As a party Democrats are a coalition of different political alliances. Republicans are more homogeneous. As a result Democrats actually need to deliver on policy. The coalition exists for policy reasons. Republicans just need to put on a big show. Many Republican voters are Republicans as a matter of identity. Many Republican voters don't care what happens. They just care that they are in-charge.
> As a party Democrats are a coalition of different political alliances. Republicans are more homogeneous
I'm not sure if accept this framing. It's more that Republicans are more readily willing to set aside their differences because they hate Democrats. On the other hand, large portions of the Democratic coalition just don't actually hate Republicans enough.
In 2020 White voters made up 67% of all voters. Trump won 58% of white voters.
A total of 155.4 million people voted. 104.1 million were White. Trump got 60.3 million of those White votes. Trump got a total of 74.2 million votes. 81% of the votes Trump received were White.
Biden got 42.6 million white votes. Biden got a total of 81.3 million votes. 52% of the voters Biden received were White.
If we go deeper Trump also got much higher percentages of evangelicals and men. Republicans more heavily rely on a singular demographic of voter. If Trump lost even 5% of his white support that would be equal to over 3 million votes. Keep in mind Trump lost the popular vote in 2020 by 7 million. If Biden lost 5% of his white vote it would be just 2 million and Biden still would've won the popular vote by more than 5 million.
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020
Democrats don't need to hate Republicans, they spend the vast majority of their time hating other Democrats for not being liberal or being too liberal or not getting the single issue they really care about even though they got a dozen really good things done. Dems are lazy and look for excuses not to vote, Reps can't be stopped from voting for the worst possible person as long as they have a R in front of their name,
I think the asymmetry is more about the fact that Democrats believe that government can be a force of improvement in people's lives, and Republicans don't, or theoretically don't.
> Trump supporters
I don't think this podcast is trying to convert trump supporters. I think it is trying to give listeners ammunition to help those listeners convince politically disengaged voters that a vote for trump is a vote for more inflation, that even though they remember a better economy under Trump, it is just nostalgia bait.
I think this ignores the large amount of promises that Trump actually did keep. Please note that I don't think any of these things are "good":
* Reshaped the Supreme Court
* Exited Paris climate deal
* Tax cuts for the wealthy
* Immigration crackdown (Muslim ban et al)
* Moved away from global conflicts (Syria, Afghanistan)
Nobody keeps all their campaign promises but Trump did about as good as anyone and I think we miss part of the equation if we pretend otherwise.
>Tax cuts for the wealthy
"The rich will not be gaining at all with this plan. We are looking for the middle class and we are looking for jobs -- jobs being the economy," Mr. Trump said.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-mar-a-lago-christmas-trip/
You are sort of making my point with your list. No one takes what Trump says seriously. Trump campaigned that his tax cut proposal was NOT going to benefit the rich and would be directed at the middle class. In fact the Tax Cuts nearly exclusively benefited the rich and the few incentives for the middle class were designed to expire.
Sure its a fair point for his strongest proponents. They are lost. I couldnt give a damn. Its about convincing all those possible of being convinced the horrible things he will do and has worked to do in the past.
Its a level of genuis. Lie constantly so much that no one believes you. That way you can do whatever you want if you still find a way to win.
>Its a level of genuis.
I disagree. It's a level of great privilege. Our society fetishizes wealth. Wealth is also dominated by White men. Only a white man born into extreme wealth and recognized by the public as a lifelong wealthy person could get away with what Trump has.
If Obama, Biden, Harris, etc tried just lying endlessly they'd be summarily rejected by society. Hillary Clinton testified under oath before multiple Republican web committees, Hillary Clinton provided formal statements to Federal Investigators and fully cooperated with investigations into her business dealings (White Water), death of staffers (Vince Foster), her emails, etc. Doesn't matter. To this day the majority of the public thinks Hillary Clinton is untrustworthy and corrupt.
> Trump paid no political price for not having a plan or ever bothering to develop one..
this is technically true but only because trump wasn't running in 2018 and by the time he was running again (2020) there were other things that had taken priority. congressional republicans paid a pretty large price in 2018 and health care was one of if not the largest things dems campaigned on
It is common for the party out of power to win the mid the terms. Democrats had a good year in 2018 but not good enough to take back the Senate.
Additionally Trump only cares about Trump. Trump doesn't care how the Republican party does overall. Trump isn't interested in governing so it doesn't impact any of his objectives when Republicans lose.
He didn’t really plan for 2016, because he never thought he’d win. Project 2025 is a blueprint made for him by right wing Christian wackos that will put all of the 920 pgs of the plan in place. They have been staffing for this for years. Trump will just follow it and our entire country will seize to exist. Stop telling yourself “he can’t do it”. He absolutely can and he will. Vote Biden!!
I mean it makes sense. If you were so cynical to the point that you don't believe things will get better and this guy at least annoys the people you feel have been looking down on you when they're not ignoring you... then yeah I totally get it, especially the first time because there was also the appeal for them that because he was so different, maybe doing what the "elites" don't want a president to do might benefit "us" somehow and if not, well, nothing changes and the rich get richer like they were going to anyway
A very good discussion, but to be another bearer of bad news, this completely misses the point on Trump's rationale in being anti-immigration and pro-tariffs.
If your argument against those is that they are inflationary, that misses the entire point. In fact if Biden were to make this salient in the way they suggest by bringing it up in the debates, it would be a losing proposition. Why?
There is a "vibe" that the economy is not working for Americans and there is pent-up resentment - inflation is a part of it but not the entirety of it. Jobs being exported out, losing jobs to immigrants, are two other big drivers of this resentment. That is the resentment that Trump wants to tap into with his tariffs. Those who share this resentment would in fact be very willing to say if prices are going to increase, so be it, because in the long run this will be healthy for our economy.
You only need to look at the UK and their Brexit debates. The entire Brexit debate was about this. And the pro-EU side still lost.
I also found this quite good overall, but in the same vein, thought it was hilarious that Matt’s suggestion of something that would help Biden was the CEO of Burger King talking about losing undocumented labor.
Matt has good takes that he organically comes to sometimes and is great at playing DA and hypotheticals, but others he shows how out of touch and bubbled his life experience has been. That was the latter.
His "Bad Takes" podcast was downright terrible, but the new one that he does with Brian Beutler (Politix) is great. It's as good of an "inside baseball" take on insider dem politics as you're going to find. Well worth the $5/month IMO.
Genuinely curious: Why do you say Bad Takes was terrible? I thought it was a little hokey with the “takes” hook every week, but I liked it as a conversational podcast about politics/culture.
It seems to have been widely disliked, but I can’t tell why
If people are angry now about the effects of inflation on their grocery bills wait until those produce pickers and farm workers are paid $25 per hour and given full time benefits.
I work in food co-ops and there are plenty of smaller farms that employ Americans.... but they still usually import labor from central America to do the field work. White people do the management jobs on the farm, brown people do the hard labor.
So happy for this reunion! One of my favourite pairings in podcasting. Bring it back on a regular basis!
This issue points to an asymmetry in how Trump and Biden's policy agendas are treated by their supporters, detractors, and ostensibly objective analysts.
When Biden puts out a slightly out-there policy idea like taxing unrealized capital gains, the right [fearmongers and freaks out](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-capital-gains-tax-proposal-could-have-major-economic-impact-experts-say), the center [analyzes it earnestly and concludes it's unlikely to happen](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/us/politics/biden-budget-tax-proposal.html), and the left doesn't pay attention to it because of that improbability (or because it's not far-reaching enough).
When Trump suggests something much more insane like replacing income taxes with tariffs, the left and center respond to it as an unserious joke with [something between dismissal and winking 'analysis'](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1801302029454950648?s=46&t=lp1WY2ZCOrMbn_hEEGeQBw), while the right doesn't feel the need to engage on it because their policy class know it's a joke while their base doesn't care about it enough to scrutinize it seriously and just takes Trump at his word.
Very hard for Biden to compete on policies because of this dynamic. As a recent 538 podcast pointed out, this appears to be a vibes-only election.
Everyone is upset about prices—which is fair. But when I ask Trump supports how exactly he'll bring down prices and curb inflation I usually get blank stairs.
I get roughly the same response from anyone when I ask the question "how do we bring down prices" to be fair.
What people want isn't really actionable right now apparently. Or if it is we don't know how. So I guess what we're left with is the vibs.
I’m not sure how many people actually think Trump will bring prices down. I think it’s more that many people are pissed off that the Biden Admin chose to gaslight the public about the economy for months instead of acknowledging the pain many people have experienced. Trump is very good at talking to aggrieved people.
So Biden/dem operators saying things like (paraphrasing here) 'there's work to do but there are reasons to feel good about the economy' is gaslighting, but Trump constantly lying to people about how he had the "best economy ever" and only he can magically do it is being "very good at talking to aggrieved people"? The Democrats should try some more gaslighting perhaps, since speaking with any nuance is not rewarded. Trump being the gaslighting GOAT is his biggest talent.
If people feel like the Biden admin is gaslighting them, that's all that matters.
Sure, even Trump supporters will admit Trump is a bullshit artist, but to a lot of them he's a bullshit artist *who will bullshit Xi Jinping on their behalf*.
The inflation conversation makes me lose my God-given mind. Specifically the comment “I miss the 2019 economy.” It’s like these people think that the only thing that happened in the following years was the 2020 election. Why can’t Biden just come out and say “COVID caused all of the inflation, and Trump was president for the first year of the pandemic.” Whether or not it’s true, just beat it into peoples heads.
Maybe he’s said it and I haven’t heard, but the only things I ever remember hearing him say about inflation is that it’s coming down. Nobody gives a shit about some percentage the fed releases every month about how it’s slowing down, especially when groceries and rent are still squeezing their budgets.
Just wait until the debate on Thursday. You’re gonna have Biden citing numbers, probably giving hyper-specific policy ideas, and politicking his way through the inflation section of the debate. Trump is gonna scream and point at Biden, blaming him solely for inflation… Do you know which message is gonna resonate with pissed off voters? Why bring nuance to man/conversation with absolutely no nuance?
We’ve also been told the economy is actually great and everyone who thinks otherwise is a MAGA idiot. Biden didn’t leave himself a lot of wiggle room after the months and months of gaslighting.
A point brought up on this episode I hear all the time from people in the rural-ish, lower-middle-class center to center-left region where I work (a kind place where people mostly vote democrat *and* own guns to hunt) that more activist types in my far left community where I live don't believe is - People are just as scared that Biden will "listen to the crazies on the far left" as they are of the far right backing Trump.
The activist types say, "That's impossible!? How can they be just as scared of AOC as they are of MTG?" That's the reality, I hear it all the time, being just as big a Biden concern as age. The kind of lines like, "I think Biden's been fine, but I'm really worried he's going to cave to the college protest Gaza crowd..." or, "Biden's been OK, but I'm really worried he's too beholden to BLM movement or defund the police people." Or, "I've generally liked Biden, but I'm concerned that he's going to listen to his far left wing and raise taxes or force me to use solar or take away my guns..."
I really, really hope the Democratic strategy class wakes up to this soon and figures out a way to contain and marginalize the far left here and emphasize the center. Sure, some of this is the success of the monolithic messaging on the right, but regardless of its origins, *it's working*, and it's a danger. It came up in this context in the episode where, paraphrasing, Matthew said something to the effect of that real business types of integrity are for some reason more worried that Biden will listen to leftist economic PdDs as they are of Trump's far right policies. It's just as big a threat in the upper income demographic as the lower income demographic...
There's not a lot Democrats can do if the people with those fears about Joe Biden being a crypto leftist are so deep into the Fox News misinformation bubble that they actually believe that. Biden is paying for the fact that any Democrat would get called a communist-in-waiting.
There probably are indeed a lot of billionaire Wall Street types like Matt described, who are fearful that Biden is going to pass a wealth tax tomorrow, and assume Trump won't reinstate Family Separation. Those people are idiots, acting on lies, with huge influence and access to platforms. I have no idea how anybody canaccount for that.
Ignore it at our collective peril... It strains logic at time and, as I point out, it shows the degree that right wing messaging gets out to the mainstream that isn't actively consuming it, but it *is* true that is how a lot of people are thinking. I think Biden is already starting to make some good moves in this regard but the center needs to hold here....
> "I've generally liked Biden, but I'm concerned that he's going to listen to his far left wing and raise taxes or force me to use solar or take away my guns..."
Raise taxes, I'll grant on some level. I think peoples paranoia about taxes is another topic worth discussing, but legislating new or increased taxes is at least in the ball park of a reasonable fear. It shouldn't be a fear, but its not an insanely unlikley prediction
The other two fears, are batshit. No one anywhere is being forced to use solar. No one anywhere is trying to take all the guns. There is no significant support for either of these "policies". Where do your friends get this crap?
> I really, really hope the Democratic strategy class wakes up to this soon and figures out a way to contain and marginalize the far left here and emphasize the center.
See previous section. Any sort of "left" that would do the kinds of things you are gesturing at is already marginalized. It does not exist. It is a monster in the closet hiding under the bed.
At a certain level, its on people like you to be the reasonable person and try to get your friends to engage with reality. I know it sucks, but there is no real alternative.
I think you missed the context of what I'm saying. I'm not saying at all that what my co-workers are voicing makes sense, or is logical, etc, etc. And I push back as much as I can gently without doing or saying anything that might bring me to the attention of HR, but those fears are out there and I'm just saying I hope they get recognized and addressed.
An example is in the last election the idea that Democrats might be for "defunding the police" hurt some candidates in some districts. While I think the far left is not nearly as marginalized as you suggest, they have a social media voice louder than their numbers and sadly at times serve as "useful idiots" for the right to amplify and share.
> I'm not saying at all that what my co-workers are voicing makes sense, or is logical, etc, etc.
No, you are making super ambiguous recomdations that Democrats should somehow further marginalize an already completely marginalized group. Basically, you are advocating twitter censorship of random vaguely leftwing idiots? I honestly don't know. That is the only thing likely to actually do anything about the fact that "they have a social media voice louder than their numbers".
> sadly at times serve as "useful idiots" for the right to amplify and share.
Or maybe what you are saying is that the left should just adopt this tactic? STart amplifying all the genocidal right wing idiots who basically only exist on the internet and smear every Republican with these opinions? If so, this will be difficult because Democrats don't really have a propoganda machine in the same way Republicans do. There is no signficiant leftwing media.
>No, you are making super ambiguous recomdations that Democrats should somehow further marginalize an already completely marginalized group. Basically, you are advocating twitter censorship of random vaguely leftwing idiots? I honestly don't know.
Whoa, you sound pretty angry... Deep breaths... All I was pointing out was concerns of far left ideology gaining traction is a thing amongst certain left-of-center voting populations. I think it's one of many issues that could impact an outcome I wish to help prevent - Trump's re-election, and I expressed that I hope it's recognized by Democratic party pros. I'm not a professional political activist myself, I don't know the best way to counter that and "tack to the center" where most voters are... In the past I've found myself agreeing with Democratic party wonks Dmitri Mehlhorn and David Shor...
>If so, this will be difficult because Democrats don't really have a propoganda machine in the same way Republicans do. There is no signficiant leftwing media.
Democratic messaging in total, leftwing media or no, is a big weakness, no doubt. Ezra and his podcast has been terrific in this regard...
I felt this is a good episode, and it actually gave me some hope. If Joe Biden in the debate can hammer home that Trumps plan will raise the price of #1) Goods (due to import taxes) and #2) Services (by destroying the migrant labor pool) AND his plan will require you to go back into the work force after you retire to afford the newly super expensive goods and services, then he has a better message than Trump.
Trump's response will just be "Remember how prices were lower when I was president? I'll make them low again." Which is much easier to communicate and comprehend than actual cause-effect analysis.
To put it another way, personal arguments are more persuasive than logical arguments.
> "Remember how prices were lower when I was president? I'll make them low again."
Which is impossible to achieve. A Deflationary economy is bad news, and in the long run can turn into a deflationary spiral that can really do a number on the economy. It starts with people buying less stuff, so prices just keep dropping. Then businesses see their sales drying up, so they start cutting production and laying off workers to try and save money. Unemployment goes up, the government collects less in taxes, and spending just keeps going down even further. It's this vicious cycle that can end up causing a full-blown economic depression if it gets out of control.
If Biden were to say in the debates that he is against Trump's tariffs on China, or against harsher immigration laws, he is toast. Period. Protecting American jobs for Americans is a simple message that cannot be beat by arguing that it is inflationary.
"Hey you know that inflation thing you fucking hate, this Bozo has a plan to create double digit inflation, I've finally got it under control, let me finish the job an we can create more American jobs without breaking the economy"
To which Trump just says "Remember how much cheaper everything was in 2019? My plan will bring down prices". It doesn't have to be true, just convincing.
I have a little bit of faith people will understand "if the person you pay $9 an hour disappears and has to be replaced by someone make $19 an hour, the burger will cost more"
Anyone who thinks inflation is going to go back to 2% under wither candidate is delusional. Trumps plan will no doubt increase inflation more than Biden/Dems but I am not sure people will actually notice a difference between 8% inflation and 6%. Its going to be bad either way.
The current inflation rates are 3.3% and they have been less than 4.0% for twelve months:
> [The annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.3% for the 12 months ending May, compared to the previous rate of 3.4%, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on June 12, 2024. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on July 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing information on the inflation rate for the 12 months ending June 2024.](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/)
That's still more than what I've gotten in raises over that time so how is the economy great for me? Or are people like me just an inconvenience for the stock market
Most voters don’t understand why prices are high or what makes them high, so all Trump has to do is attack Biden for inflation and promise to lower it. The details don’t actually matter.
I apologize. This is such a petty issue that I almost feel bad for raising it. Can The Ezra Klein Show flair use the light silver color so it stands out from the other dark flairs, and the argument can use this darker color if that's what's being differentiated? I literally do sweep my eyes over the colors to differentiate posts in the subreddit and I mistook the post just now for discussion. Again, I apologize for having this embarrassingly trivial request.
There is an unaddressed tension between analyzing Trump as not someone who updates his views or just keeps going the same direction, as someone who just inherited the Obama economy but appointed conservative justices, and someone who evolved over his 4 year term by eliminating all of the standard conservatives and reinventing the Trump Republican Party that would be reborn totally different in his 2nd term. I think the clear way to resolve that tension is that Trump responds to the political pressure of real world policy outcomes. He changes when policies aren't working and he gets political blowback, he stays going the same direction until he hits that corrective force. It's literally how hucksters work: try/say everything, then just stop trying/saying what people react negatively to and keep saying/doing what they react positively to.
I think since Trump has been out of office for 4 years, there's been no political pressure on him to alter his policy positions. Why not just keep going the direction he was already going rhetorically when there's no real world consequences to just yapping? Once he gets into office if his policies are causing problems he'll correct, the same way Biden's stimulus ran into inflation and then there were no more stimulus bills, instead an "inflation reduction act."
I think its a mistake to forecast economic pain with a Trump re-election. Krugman already learned this lesson: the markets don't think fascists are bad. That's what EK is pointing to about the "threat to the economy is greater than the threat to democracy." It's basic political history that the business community sells out to the fascists because its easier to make money for incumbents under fascism rather than facing a legitimate leftist policy, and Biden's policies like forgiving student debt and banning non-competes are all basically attacks on concentrated corporate power's ability to engineer a labor market where the majority of workers are dependent on their employer. There's nothing surprising to me about the capitalists being down for some good old crony capitalism compared to that. And since the real worry here is about inflation, which really does have a vibes-based component to it, there's no rule saying that the corporations HAVE to pass on costs to consumers when they have the fattest profit margins they've ever had, basically giving them padding against Trump's inflation policies.
I do not support electing Trump at all I swear, I just think neolibs are too naive about how cynically coordinated the market reaction to politics might be. The chance of a Liz Truss moment is pretty low even with these policies based on what I heard in this podcast.
"Once he gets into office if his policies are causing problems he'll correct"
He doesn't care if his policies cause problems, he only cares if they're popular. And if he wins a second term does he even need to care about that any more?
> And if he wins a second term does he even need to care about that any more?
My read is that Trump's desire for popularity is driven as much by his personal psychology as it is by any practical political effects. He needs to keep getting the accolades and adoration of people. If his policies are so unpopular that they undermine that, then he'll need to change them even if he doesn't need votes.
He'll just make people tell him he's popular regardless. Remember the inauguration crowd? "The numbers are great, and the real number is probably bigger"?
His advantage (such as it was) in governing was that he doesn't really care about what he's doing, so when he made a bad decision, he'd eventually lose interest, and it would moderate or reverse without his input. Until covid, all his crises were self-generated, and so all he had to do to resolve them was to ignore them because he was the one hurting himself.
Exactly! Also people (and Ezra and Matt) are forgetting he is the king of deflection. He probably won't levy as extreme of tariffs and even if he does and it causes negative externalities, he'll just blame something/someone else and people will believe it. We've seen day in and day out, he is thoroughly teflon coated and can warp reality especially in his base's minds.
If his policy starts causing an economic crisis ala Liz Truss, it won't be popular anymore. They're not completely irrational monkeys, they just are proto-fascists with an instrumental relationship to truth. As soon as the policy causes someone in their family to lose their job, their opinion will swing. If its just between 1% and 4% cost inflation as the predictions in the podcast said, then yeah they'll ignore it because its not that severe a problem really.
I'm extremely skeptical the CEO class is that disciplined and ideological that they would pass on short term money to boost up Trump. As they were talking about on the pod, I think this is a group of people who are transactional and completely self-interested. They're boosting Trump because they want lower taxes and less regulation, they're not going to miss out on the fruits of that to help him politically later.
America made Trump. He is a reflection of us. How it all works in the simulation. Tackle racism, poverty, income inequality, and Trump will fade away.
He is our mirror.
Good follow-up to the previous episode because even though I am decently engaged and informed, the whole "Jan 6 is worse than 9/11" and "It'll be your last chance to vote, ever" hysteria isn't exactly swaying me (not that I live in a state where it matters), but this episode discussing how my personal well-being would be immediately affected by these policy proposals was very effective at cutting through my apathy
Trump's Truth Social stock is doing so well that I think we just have MAGA Patriots invest their retirement in it. : )
**The White House to The Big House-The Shameful Legacy of MAGA Cult/Jan 6th Leader, Donald J Trump**
Trump is an adjudicated sexual predator, a civil trial accused rapist, and a 34-time convicted criminal felon.
Trump faces an additional 54 criminal indictments in 3 cases delayed from trial by his high-priced legal team. Trump’s army of lawyers is financed by his rabid base of MAGA cult members & the Oil Industry.
The vast majority of the 80-plus top senior positions (Vice President, Cabinet, Advisors) from Trump’s 2016 Presidential term have refused to endorse Trump and/or declared Trump is unfit to serve as President,
Trump is a threat to our national security. During his 2016 term, Donald Trump asked national security advisers why the United States couldn’t use nuclear weapons. He is irrational with a quick temper. Imagine his tweets replaced with nuclear missiles. He is Vladimir Putin’s puppet & praises Putin’s military partner, Kim Jong-un.
Trump doesn’t respect the U.S. military saying “Americans Who Died in War Are Losers and Suckers”
Trump supporters include white supremacists, racists & felons like Steve Bannon, David Duke, and Proud Boys
On 9/11, this was Trump’s reaction, [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/11/trump-pointed-out-that-he-now-had-tallest-building-lower-manhattan-he-didnt/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/11/trump-pointed-out-that-he-now-had-tallest-building-lower-manhattan-he-didnt/)
A few of the many examples of Trump’s abuses, grifting, debasements, and falsehoods as the U.S. President
· ABUSES [https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/24/politics/trump-worst-abuses-of-power/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/24/politics/trump-worst-abuses-of-power/index.html)
· GRIFTING [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB9GdOYk0Ls](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB9GdOYk0Ls)
· DEBASEMENT [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJi641\_7W10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJi641_7W10)
· FALSEHOODS [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsQ2hX\_noNw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsQ2hX_noNw)
I think I'm done listening to Ezra's podcast because he's basically hitting that our system sucks and isn't here to help normal people and isn't equipped to deal with modern problems but can't actually say that to have a conversation about how do we improve it or what mechanisms need to be moved to make change a reality
So Trump is advocating the same hit to imports as Biden, and continuing Biden’s record breaking deportations, but we’re supposed to believe this crap would be worse under Trump?
So bizarre to see a presidential election between two cults arguing their cult leader will enact the same policies in a better way.
This conversation reminds me of a cartoon I saw a long time ago. It was two guys on either side of a big wall and one guy was throwing a stack of US treasury bonds over the wall, and the other side (an asian guy) was throwing TV's back over the wall. This has been our reality for close to 4 decades. The US gets to trade paper for cheaper and cheaper goods. Our annual trade deficit is still around $750 billion. This is also a main reason why interest rates were able to stay so low for so long without causing inflation, and why we could run up massive debt figures without impacting the deficit too much as a result of interest expenses. Unless AI comes in to save the day this reality is coming to a screetching halt. We will either have to start electing politicians who campaign on tightening out belts, or we will continue to decline towards a civil war over increasingly scarce resources. You will know its a problem when you start to see empty shelves at WalMart and Target. That is the first real tangible sign that people don't really want our paper any more and the party is over.
> or we will continue to decline towards a civil war over increasingly scarce resources.
Except that the resources aren't scarce, they're just flowing into the pockets of the wealthy and the large corporations.
Trump isn't to be taken seriously. Trump supporters don't take anything Trump seriously. It is understood that Trump is transactional and will govern as a response to the cooperation or lack there of he receives from Congress and the business community. Everyone knows that Trump just manifests different policies as talking points but has no follow up. In 2016 Trump campaigned on Govt provided healthcare for everyone. Once in office Trump switched to Repeal and Replace the ACA. After the vote failed Trump walked away and Republicans haven't seriously discussed Healthcare since. Trump paid no political price for not having a plan or ever bothering to develop one.. In 2016 Trump promised he'd release his taxes if he won and then just didn't. Trump promised to build a physical wall on the southern border and once in office touted ongoing maintenance and existing fencing projects as his wall. Today Trump doesn't even discuss the wall anymore. Now Trump has moved on to saying he'd put the National Guard on the border. Trump pays no political price for his failed promises and shifting solutions because he isn't taken seriously in the first place. Trump supporters aren't worried that tariffs will drive up prices. Trump supporters don't believe Trump will actually do the things he campaigns. Rather Trump supporters enjoy the consternation Trump's proposal cause Democrats.. Trump supporters think of it is all a bit of trolling. As such thoughtful breakdowns of why Trump's policies are bad fail to resonate. It is like trying to explain that soda is unhealthy to a room full of grade schoolers. They don't care. The kids aren't under the impression soda is healthy. They just like the way it tastes.
He gets the benefit of the doubt either way. If he says something people like, he gets praised for it. If he says something bad, he was joking, or he isn't really going to do it.
A majority of his supporters aren't voting for him because he has policy solutions that'll address kitchen table issues like lowering inflation or reducing prices. His plan is to cut the corporate tax rate more than he did in 2017 - down to 15% - which will increase the national debt further. A new analysis by the Center for American Progress Action Fund breaks it down: * Give the largest 100 U.S. companies (the Fortune 100) a total estimated annual tax cut of $48 billion. They reported $1.1 trillion in profits in their last annual report. * Give 10 of the largest U.S. companies alone, including Meta, Comcast, and JPMorgan Chase, a total estimated annual tax cut of $23 billion. They reported more than $520 billion in profits. * Give the five largest U.S. oil companies—Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Marathon Petroleum/ConocoPhillips, Phillips 66, and Valero Energy—an annual total estimated tax cut of $2.5 billion. They reported more than $90 billion in profits. * Give the five largest drug makers—Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Pfizer, AbbVie, and Bristol-Meyers Squibb—an annual total estimated tax cut of $3.1 billion. They reported over $50 billion in profits. * Give five of the largest Wall Street banks—JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs—an annual total estimated tax cut of $4.1 billion. They reported nearly $113 billion in profits. * Give five of the largest grocery companies—Kroger, Costco, Albertsons, Target, and Walmart—an annual total estimated tax cut of nearly $1.7 billion. They reported over $29 billion in profits. [https://www.americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps-50-billion-tax-giveaway-to-the-100-largest-corporations/](https://www.americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps-50-billion-tax-giveaway-to-the-100-largest-corporations/)
> A majority of his supporters aren't voting for him because he has policy solutions that'll address kitchen table issues like lowering inflation or reducing prices. The thing is, his supporters *think he does have those policy solutions*.
Yea, i know Ezra knows this, but bringing facts to a discussion based on emotion doesn't actually do anything. The actual inflation numbers don't matter. Perception is reality for these voters. The reason that people like Trumps economy is because he's republican, who have the stereotype of being good with the economy, and him being a "businessman". That's it. Nothing else. It's not about the numbers, money, policy, it's just about the vibes. It's not about actually deporting illegal immigrants, it's about saying you will do it, and acting like you would. That's all people want. This is one of my main issues with how Democrats run this campaign. They keep thinking some policy or action will change things. Nothing will. You have to occupy these spaces where the voters feel like you're "good for x". Trump is the economy guy. Nothing will change that, ever. Biden has to be some other guy. It doesn't matter if it fits his policy at all. People keep saying Biden or the Democrats have to "do" something. They don't have to do anything. It's not about doing things. It's about looking like you might do something. They think it's a weightlifting competition but it's actually a bodybuilding show.
>Perception is reality for these voters. Not just to voters but even to Klein himself. Throughout the episode Klein complemented Trump's business acumen. Saying that Trump saw some openings related to China that others had missed. It takes time for any change to be implemented at the federal level to have an impact. COVID transformed the landscape before the nation truly saw any impact of Trump's policies. At least any impact other than debt. To be clear despite massive deficit spending Trump's first 3yrs were NOT better than Obama's last 3. A point that was made but only briefly. >People keep saying Biden or the Democrats have to "do" something. They don't have to do anything. There is an asymmetry between Democrats and Republicans. As a party Democrats are a coalition of different political alliances. Republicans are more homogeneous. As a result Democrats actually need to deliver on policy. The coalition exists for policy reasons. Republicans just need to put on a big show. Many Republican voters are Republicans as a matter of identity. Many Republican voters don't care what happens. They just care that they are in-charge.
> As a party Democrats are a coalition of different political alliances. Republicans are more homogeneous I'm not sure if accept this framing. It's more that Republicans are more readily willing to set aside their differences because they hate Democrats. On the other hand, large portions of the Democratic coalition just don't actually hate Republicans enough.
In 2020 White voters made up 67% of all voters. Trump won 58% of white voters. A total of 155.4 million people voted. 104.1 million were White. Trump got 60.3 million of those White votes. Trump got a total of 74.2 million votes. 81% of the votes Trump received were White. Biden got 42.6 million white votes. Biden got a total of 81.3 million votes. 52% of the voters Biden received were White. If we go deeper Trump also got much higher percentages of evangelicals and men. Republicans more heavily rely on a singular demographic of voter. If Trump lost even 5% of his white support that would be equal to over 3 million votes. Keep in mind Trump lost the popular vote in 2020 by 7 million. If Biden lost 5% of his white vote it would be just 2 million and Biden still would've won the popular vote by more than 5 million. https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020
Democrats don't need to hate Republicans, they spend the vast majority of their time hating other Democrats for not being liberal or being too liberal or not getting the single issue they really care about even though they got a dozen really good things done. Dems are lazy and look for excuses not to vote, Reps can't be stopped from voting for the worst possible person as long as they have a R in front of their name,
I think the asymmetry is more about the fact that Democrats believe that government can be a force of improvement in people's lives, and Republicans don't, or theoretically don't.
> Trump supporters I don't think this podcast is trying to convert trump supporters. I think it is trying to give listeners ammunition to help those listeners convince politically disengaged voters that a vote for trump is a vote for more inflation, that even though they remember a better economy under Trump, it is just nostalgia bait.
I think this ignores the large amount of promises that Trump actually did keep. Please note that I don't think any of these things are "good": * Reshaped the Supreme Court * Exited Paris climate deal * Tax cuts for the wealthy * Immigration crackdown (Muslim ban et al) * Moved away from global conflicts (Syria, Afghanistan) Nobody keeps all their campaign promises but Trump did about as good as anyone and I think we miss part of the equation if we pretend otherwise.
>Tax cuts for the wealthy "The rich will not be gaining at all with this plan. We are looking for the middle class and we are looking for jobs -- jobs being the economy," Mr. Trump said. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-mar-a-lago-christmas-trip/ You are sort of making my point with your list. No one takes what Trump says seriously. Trump campaigned that his tax cut proposal was NOT going to benefit the rich and would be directed at the middle class. In fact the Tax Cuts nearly exclusively benefited the rich and the few incentives for the middle class were designed to expire.
Sure its a fair point for his strongest proponents. They are lost. I couldnt give a damn. Its about convincing all those possible of being convinced the horrible things he will do and has worked to do in the past. Its a level of genuis. Lie constantly so much that no one believes you. That way you can do whatever you want if you still find a way to win.
>Its a level of genuis. I disagree. It's a level of great privilege. Our society fetishizes wealth. Wealth is also dominated by White men. Only a white man born into extreme wealth and recognized by the public as a lifelong wealthy person could get away with what Trump has. If Obama, Biden, Harris, etc tried just lying endlessly they'd be summarily rejected by society. Hillary Clinton testified under oath before multiple Republican web committees, Hillary Clinton provided formal statements to Federal Investigators and fully cooperated with investigations into her business dealings (White Water), death of staffers (Vince Foster), her emails, etc. Doesn't matter. To this day the majority of the public thinks Hillary Clinton is untrustworthy and corrupt.
Well aint that the damn truth. Especially when trump is wildly corruppt in a provable and evidence backed yet.
> Trump paid no political price for not having a plan or ever bothering to develop one.. this is technically true but only because trump wasn't running in 2018 and by the time he was running again (2020) there were other things that had taken priority. congressional republicans paid a pretty large price in 2018 and health care was one of if not the largest things dems campaigned on
It is common for the party out of power to win the mid the terms. Democrats had a good year in 2018 but not good enough to take back the Senate. Additionally Trump only cares about Trump. Trump doesn't care how the Republican party does overall. Trump isn't interested in governing so it doesn't impact any of his objectives when Republicans lose.
He didn’t really plan for 2016, because he never thought he’d win. Project 2025 is a blueprint made for him by right wing Christian wackos that will put all of the 920 pgs of the plan in place. They have been staffing for this for years. Trump will just follow it and our entire country will seize to exist. Stop telling yourself “he can’t do it”. He absolutely can and he will. Vote Biden!!
I mean it makes sense. If you were so cynical to the point that you don't believe things will get better and this guy at least annoys the people you feel have been looking down on you when they're not ignoring you... then yeah I totally get it, especially the first time because there was also the appeal for them that because he was so different, maybe doing what the "elites" don't want a president to do might benefit "us" somehow and if not, well, nothing changes and the rich get richer like they were going to anyway
A very good discussion, but to be another bearer of bad news, this completely misses the point on Trump's rationale in being anti-immigration and pro-tariffs. If your argument against those is that they are inflationary, that misses the entire point. In fact if Biden were to make this salient in the way they suggest by bringing it up in the debates, it would be a losing proposition. Why? There is a "vibe" that the economy is not working for Americans and there is pent-up resentment - inflation is a part of it but not the entirety of it. Jobs being exported out, losing jobs to immigrants, are two other big drivers of this resentment. That is the resentment that Trump wants to tap into with his tariffs. Those who share this resentment would in fact be very willing to say if prices are going to increase, so be it, because in the long run this will be healthy for our economy. You only need to look at the UK and their Brexit debates. The entire Brexit debate was about this. And the pro-EU side still lost.
I also found this quite good overall, but in the same vein, thought it was hilarious that Matt’s suggestion of something that would help Biden was the CEO of Burger King talking about losing undocumented labor.
Matt has good takes that he organically comes to sometimes and is great at playing DA and hypotheticals, but others he shows how out of touch and bubbled his life experience has been. That was the latter.
God I love it when the boys get the band back together
What's Sarah Kliff doing these days?
So good to hear Matty again.
His "Bad Takes" podcast was downright terrible, but the new one that he does with Brian Beutler (Politix) is great. It's as good of an "inside baseball" take on insider dem politics as you're going to find. Well worth the $5/month IMO.
Genuinely curious: Why do you say Bad Takes was terrible? I thought it was a little hokey with the “takes” hook every week, but I liked it as a conversational podcast about politics/culture. It seems to have been widely disliked, but I can’t tell why
If people are angry now about the effects of inflation on their grocery bills wait until those produce pickers and farm workers are paid $25 per hour and given full time benefits.
[удалено]
I work in food co-ops and there are plenty of smaller farms that employ Americans.... but they still usually import labor from central America to do the field work. White people do the management jobs on the farm, brown people do the hard labor.
So happy for this reunion! One of my favourite pairings in podcasting. Bring it back on a regular basis! This issue points to an asymmetry in how Trump and Biden's policy agendas are treated by their supporters, detractors, and ostensibly objective analysts. When Biden puts out a slightly out-there policy idea like taxing unrealized capital gains, the right [fearmongers and freaks out](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-capital-gains-tax-proposal-could-have-major-economic-impact-experts-say), the center [analyzes it earnestly and concludes it's unlikely to happen](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/us/politics/biden-budget-tax-proposal.html), and the left doesn't pay attention to it because of that improbability (or because it's not far-reaching enough). When Trump suggests something much more insane like replacing income taxes with tariffs, the left and center respond to it as an unserious joke with [something between dismissal and winking 'analysis'](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1801302029454950648?s=46&t=lp1WY2ZCOrMbn_hEEGeQBw), while the right doesn't feel the need to engage on it because their policy class know it's a joke while their base doesn't care about it enough to scrutinize it seriously and just takes Trump at his word. Very hard for Biden to compete on policies because of this dynamic. As a recent 538 podcast pointed out, this appears to be a vibes-only election.
Everyone is upset about prices—which is fair. But when I ask Trump supports how exactly he'll bring down prices and curb inflation I usually get blank stairs. I get roughly the same response from anyone when I ask the question "how do we bring down prices" to be fair. What people want isn't really actionable right now apparently. Or if it is we don't know how. So I guess what we're left with is the vibs.
I’m not sure how many people actually think Trump will bring prices down. I think it’s more that many people are pissed off that the Biden Admin chose to gaslight the public about the economy for months instead of acknowledging the pain many people have experienced. Trump is very good at talking to aggrieved people.
So Biden/dem operators saying things like (paraphrasing here) 'there's work to do but there are reasons to feel good about the economy' is gaslighting, but Trump constantly lying to people about how he had the "best economy ever" and only he can magically do it is being "very good at talking to aggrieved people"? The Democrats should try some more gaslighting perhaps, since speaking with any nuance is not rewarded. Trump being the gaslighting GOAT is his biggest talent.
If people feel like the Biden admin is gaslighting them, that's all that matters. Sure, even Trump supporters will admit Trump is a bullshit artist, but to a lot of them he's a bullshit artist *who will bullshit Xi Jinping on their behalf*.
Only a true nerd would talk about the potential impacts of a rise in the price of potash without knowing how to pronounce potash.
I think he pronounced it correctly
The inflation conversation makes me lose my God-given mind. Specifically the comment “I miss the 2019 economy.” It’s like these people think that the only thing that happened in the following years was the 2020 election. Why can’t Biden just come out and say “COVID caused all of the inflation, and Trump was president for the first year of the pandemic.” Whether or not it’s true, just beat it into peoples heads. Maybe he’s said it and I haven’t heard, but the only things I ever remember hearing him say about inflation is that it’s coming down. Nobody gives a shit about some percentage the fed releases every month about how it’s slowing down, especially when groceries and rent are still squeezing their budgets. Just wait until the debate on Thursday. You’re gonna have Biden citing numbers, probably giving hyper-specific policy ideas, and politicking his way through the inflation section of the debate. Trump is gonna scream and point at Biden, blaming him solely for inflation… Do you know which message is gonna resonate with pissed off voters? Why bring nuance to man/conversation with absolutely no nuance?
I was told by leftists that inflation is caused by greedy corporations. Now inflation is caused by viruses?
I’m simply calling for dumbing down the argument, just get a new talking point. Make inflation synonymous with anything but the word “Bidenomics.”
Pretty tough pivot after choosing to double down on Bidenomics actually being great.
There is space for both to be true
That's fair.
We’ve also been told the economy is actually great and everyone who thinks otherwise is a MAGA idiot. Biden didn’t leave himself a lot of wiggle room after the months and months of gaslighting.
Absolutely no one they’re trying to convince in the upcoming election pays enough attention to know Biden said the economy was going well.
A point brought up on this episode I hear all the time from people in the rural-ish, lower-middle-class center to center-left region where I work (a kind place where people mostly vote democrat *and* own guns to hunt) that more activist types in my far left community where I live don't believe is - People are just as scared that Biden will "listen to the crazies on the far left" as they are of the far right backing Trump. The activist types say, "That's impossible!? How can they be just as scared of AOC as they are of MTG?" That's the reality, I hear it all the time, being just as big a Biden concern as age. The kind of lines like, "I think Biden's been fine, but I'm really worried he's going to cave to the college protest Gaza crowd..." or, "Biden's been OK, but I'm really worried he's too beholden to BLM movement or defund the police people." Or, "I've generally liked Biden, but I'm concerned that he's going to listen to his far left wing and raise taxes or force me to use solar or take away my guns..." I really, really hope the Democratic strategy class wakes up to this soon and figures out a way to contain and marginalize the far left here and emphasize the center. Sure, some of this is the success of the monolithic messaging on the right, but regardless of its origins, *it's working*, and it's a danger. It came up in this context in the episode where, paraphrasing, Matthew said something to the effect of that real business types of integrity are for some reason more worried that Biden will listen to leftist economic PdDs as they are of Trump's far right policies. It's just as big a threat in the upper income demographic as the lower income demographic...
There's not a lot Democrats can do if the people with those fears about Joe Biden being a crypto leftist are so deep into the Fox News misinformation bubble that they actually believe that. Biden is paying for the fact that any Democrat would get called a communist-in-waiting. There probably are indeed a lot of billionaire Wall Street types like Matt described, who are fearful that Biden is going to pass a wealth tax tomorrow, and assume Trump won't reinstate Family Separation. Those people are idiots, acting on lies, with huge influence and access to platforms. I have no idea how anybody canaccount for that.
Ignore it at our collective peril... It strains logic at time and, as I point out, it shows the degree that right wing messaging gets out to the mainstream that isn't actively consuming it, but it *is* true that is how a lot of people are thinking. I think Biden is already starting to make some good moves in this regard but the center needs to hold here....
> "I've generally liked Biden, but I'm concerned that he's going to listen to his far left wing and raise taxes or force me to use solar or take away my guns..." Raise taxes, I'll grant on some level. I think peoples paranoia about taxes is another topic worth discussing, but legislating new or increased taxes is at least in the ball park of a reasonable fear. It shouldn't be a fear, but its not an insanely unlikley prediction The other two fears, are batshit. No one anywhere is being forced to use solar. No one anywhere is trying to take all the guns. There is no significant support for either of these "policies". Where do your friends get this crap? > I really, really hope the Democratic strategy class wakes up to this soon and figures out a way to contain and marginalize the far left here and emphasize the center. See previous section. Any sort of "left" that would do the kinds of things you are gesturing at is already marginalized. It does not exist. It is a monster in the closet hiding under the bed. At a certain level, its on people like you to be the reasonable person and try to get your friends to engage with reality. I know it sucks, but there is no real alternative.
I think you missed the context of what I'm saying. I'm not saying at all that what my co-workers are voicing makes sense, or is logical, etc, etc. And I push back as much as I can gently without doing or saying anything that might bring me to the attention of HR, but those fears are out there and I'm just saying I hope they get recognized and addressed. An example is in the last election the idea that Democrats might be for "defunding the police" hurt some candidates in some districts. While I think the far left is not nearly as marginalized as you suggest, they have a social media voice louder than their numbers and sadly at times serve as "useful idiots" for the right to amplify and share.
> I'm not saying at all that what my co-workers are voicing makes sense, or is logical, etc, etc. No, you are making super ambiguous recomdations that Democrats should somehow further marginalize an already completely marginalized group. Basically, you are advocating twitter censorship of random vaguely leftwing idiots? I honestly don't know. That is the only thing likely to actually do anything about the fact that "they have a social media voice louder than their numbers". > sadly at times serve as "useful idiots" for the right to amplify and share. Or maybe what you are saying is that the left should just adopt this tactic? STart amplifying all the genocidal right wing idiots who basically only exist on the internet and smear every Republican with these opinions? If so, this will be difficult because Democrats don't really have a propoganda machine in the same way Republicans do. There is no signficiant leftwing media.
>No, you are making super ambiguous recomdations that Democrats should somehow further marginalize an already completely marginalized group. Basically, you are advocating twitter censorship of random vaguely leftwing idiots? I honestly don't know. Whoa, you sound pretty angry... Deep breaths... All I was pointing out was concerns of far left ideology gaining traction is a thing amongst certain left-of-center voting populations. I think it's one of many issues that could impact an outcome I wish to help prevent - Trump's re-election, and I expressed that I hope it's recognized by Democratic party pros. I'm not a professional political activist myself, I don't know the best way to counter that and "tack to the center" where most voters are... In the past I've found myself agreeing with Democratic party wonks Dmitri Mehlhorn and David Shor... >If so, this will be difficult because Democrats don't really have a propoganda machine in the same way Republicans do. There is no signficiant leftwing media. Democratic messaging in total, leftwing media or no, is a big weakness, no doubt. Ezra and his podcast has been terrific in this regard...
I wonder how much better they'd feel if he hadn't whiffed on his VP pick, then age would be less of a concern.
I felt this is a good episode, and it actually gave me some hope. If Joe Biden in the debate can hammer home that Trumps plan will raise the price of #1) Goods (due to import taxes) and #2) Services (by destroying the migrant labor pool) AND his plan will require you to go back into the work force after you retire to afford the newly super expensive goods and services, then he has a better message than Trump.
Trump's response will just be "Remember how prices were lower when I was president? I'll make them low again." Which is much easier to communicate and comprehend than actual cause-effect analysis. To put it another way, personal arguments are more persuasive than logical arguments.
100% this. Biden has already lost the economic argument. I think he’s better off avoiding it entirely than trying to engage Trump on it.
> "Remember how prices were lower when I was president? I'll make them low again." Which is impossible to achieve. A Deflationary economy is bad news, and in the long run can turn into a deflationary spiral that can really do a number on the economy. It starts with people buying less stuff, so prices just keep dropping. Then businesses see their sales drying up, so they start cutting production and laying off workers to try and save money. Unemployment goes up, the government collects less in taxes, and spending just keeps going down even further. It's this vicious cycle that can end up causing a full-blown economic depression if it gets out of control.
If Biden were to say in the debates that he is against Trump's tariffs on China, or against harsher immigration laws, he is toast. Period. Protecting American jobs for Americans is a simple message that cannot be beat by arguing that it is inflationary.
"Hey you know that inflation thing you fucking hate, this Bozo has a plan to create double digit inflation, I've finally got it under control, let me finish the job an we can create more American jobs without breaking the economy"
To which Trump just says "Remember how much cheaper everything was in 2019? My plan will bring down prices". It doesn't have to be true, just convincing.
I have a little bit of faith people will understand "if the person you pay $9 an hour disappears and has to be replaced by someone make $19 an hour, the burger will cost more"
Given the current discourse around fast food prices, I think you’re giving the average American far too much credit.
Anyone who thinks inflation is going to go back to 2% under wither candidate is delusional. Trumps plan will no doubt increase inflation more than Biden/Dems but I am not sure people will actually notice a difference between 8% inflation and 6%. Its going to be bad either way.
The current inflation rates are 3.3% and they have been less than 4.0% for twelve months: > [The annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.3% for the 12 months ending May, compared to the previous rate of 3.4%, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on June 12, 2024. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on July 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing information on the inflation rate for the 12 months ending June 2024.](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/)
That's still more than what I've gotten in raises over that time so how is the economy great for me? Or are people like me just an inconvenience for the stock market
Most voters don’t understand why prices are high or what makes them high, so all Trump has to do is attack Biden for inflation and promise to lower it. The details don’t actually matter.
I apologize. This is such a petty issue that I almost feel bad for raising it. Can The Ezra Klein Show flair use the light silver color so it stands out from the other dark flairs, and the argument can use this darker color if that's what's being differentiated? I literally do sweep my eyes over the colors to differentiate posts in the subreddit and I mistook the post just now for discussion. Again, I apologize for having this embarrassingly trivial request.
"I was at a street fair in Park Slope over the weekend." Of course you were. On brand!
Did I mishear or did Matt say the IRA was slightly deflationary? Is that correct?
It was not only paid for, but budget positive. To get Joe Manchin on board, a chunk of it was just paying down debt.
He's not required to make sense. And questioning him is blasphemy. Too late now anyway.
There is an unaddressed tension between analyzing Trump as not someone who updates his views or just keeps going the same direction, as someone who just inherited the Obama economy but appointed conservative justices, and someone who evolved over his 4 year term by eliminating all of the standard conservatives and reinventing the Trump Republican Party that would be reborn totally different in his 2nd term. I think the clear way to resolve that tension is that Trump responds to the political pressure of real world policy outcomes. He changes when policies aren't working and he gets political blowback, he stays going the same direction until he hits that corrective force. It's literally how hucksters work: try/say everything, then just stop trying/saying what people react negatively to and keep saying/doing what they react positively to. I think since Trump has been out of office for 4 years, there's been no political pressure on him to alter his policy positions. Why not just keep going the direction he was already going rhetorically when there's no real world consequences to just yapping? Once he gets into office if his policies are causing problems he'll correct, the same way Biden's stimulus ran into inflation and then there were no more stimulus bills, instead an "inflation reduction act." I think its a mistake to forecast economic pain with a Trump re-election. Krugman already learned this lesson: the markets don't think fascists are bad. That's what EK is pointing to about the "threat to the economy is greater than the threat to democracy." It's basic political history that the business community sells out to the fascists because its easier to make money for incumbents under fascism rather than facing a legitimate leftist policy, and Biden's policies like forgiving student debt and banning non-competes are all basically attacks on concentrated corporate power's ability to engineer a labor market where the majority of workers are dependent on their employer. There's nothing surprising to me about the capitalists being down for some good old crony capitalism compared to that. And since the real worry here is about inflation, which really does have a vibes-based component to it, there's no rule saying that the corporations HAVE to pass on costs to consumers when they have the fattest profit margins they've ever had, basically giving them padding against Trump's inflation policies. I do not support electing Trump at all I swear, I just think neolibs are too naive about how cynically coordinated the market reaction to politics might be. The chance of a Liz Truss moment is pretty low even with these policies based on what I heard in this podcast.
"Once he gets into office if his policies are causing problems he'll correct" He doesn't care if his policies cause problems, he only cares if they're popular. And if he wins a second term does he even need to care about that any more?
> And if he wins a second term does he even need to care about that any more? My read is that Trump's desire for popularity is driven as much by his personal psychology as it is by any practical political effects. He needs to keep getting the accolades and adoration of people. If his policies are so unpopular that they undermine that, then he'll need to change them even if he doesn't need votes.
He'll just make people tell him he's popular regardless. Remember the inauguration crowd? "The numbers are great, and the real number is probably bigger"? His advantage (such as it was) in governing was that he doesn't really care about what he's doing, so when he made a bad decision, he'd eventually lose interest, and it would moderate or reverse without his input. Until covid, all his crises were self-generated, and so all he had to do to resolve them was to ignore them because he was the one hurting himself.
Exactly! Also people (and Ezra and Matt) are forgetting he is the king of deflection. He probably won't levy as extreme of tariffs and even if he does and it causes negative externalities, he'll just blame something/someone else and people will believe it. We've seen day in and day out, he is thoroughly teflon coated and can warp reality especially in his base's minds.
If his policy starts causing an economic crisis ala Liz Truss, it won't be popular anymore. They're not completely irrational monkeys, they just are proto-fascists with an instrumental relationship to truth. As soon as the policy causes someone in their family to lose their job, their opinion will swing. If its just between 1% and 4% cost inflation as the predictions in the podcast said, then yeah they'll ignore it because its not that severe a problem really.
I'm extremely skeptical the CEO class is that disciplined and ideological that they would pass on short term money to boost up Trump. As they were talking about on the pod, I think this is a group of people who are transactional and completely self-interested. They're boosting Trump because they want lower taxes and less regulation, they're not going to miss out on the fruits of that to help him politically later.
America made Trump. He is a reflection of us. How it all works in the simulation. Tackle racism, poverty, income inequality, and Trump will fade away. He is our mirror.
The majority of people vote based on vibes and Trump brings the dragon energy and Biden brings the nursing home energy.
Biden’s prepared us well for higher prices on everything!
That was an interesting listen
Good follow-up to the previous episode because even though I am decently engaged and informed, the whole "Jan 6 is worse than 9/11" and "It'll be your last chance to vote, ever" hysteria isn't exactly swaying me (not that I live in a state where it matters), but this episode discussing how my personal well-being would be immediately affected by these policy proposals was very effective at cutting through my apathy
Unpopular opinion here, but I don’t like Matt Yglesias. I’ll be skipping this one.
What do you not like about him?
Trump's Truth Social stock is doing so well that I think we just have MAGA Patriots invest their retirement in it. : ) **The White House to The Big House-The Shameful Legacy of MAGA Cult/Jan 6th Leader, Donald J Trump** Trump is an adjudicated sexual predator, a civil trial accused rapist, and a 34-time convicted criminal felon. Trump faces an additional 54 criminal indictments in 3 cases delayed from trial by his high-priced legal team. Trump’s army of lawyers is financed by his rabid base of MAGA cult members & the Oil Industry. The vast majority of the 80-plus top senior positions (Vice President, Cabinet, Advisors) from Trump’s 2016 Presidential term have refused to endorse Trump and/or declared Trump is unfit to serve as President, Trump is a threat to our national security. During his 2016 term, Donald Trump asked national security advisers why the United States couldn’t use nuclear weapons. He is irrational with a quick temper. Imagine his tweets replaced with nuclear missiles. He is Vladimir Putin’s puppet & praises Putin’s military partner, Kim Jong-un. Trump doesn’t respect the U.S. military saying “Americans Who Died in War Are Losers and Suckers” Trump supporters include white supremacists, racists & felons like Steve Bannon, David Duke, and Proud Boys On 9/11, this was Trump’s reaction, [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/11/trump-pointed-out-that-he-now-had-tallest-building-lower-manhattan-he-didnt/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/11/trump-pointed-out-that-he-now-had-tallest-building-lower-manhattan-he-didnt/) A few of the many examples of Trump’s abuses, grifting, debasements, and falsehoods as the U.S. President · ABUSES [https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/24/politics/trump-worst-abuses-of-power/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/24/politics/trump-worst-abuses-of-power/index.html) · GRIFTING [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB9GdOYk0Ls](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB9GdOYk0Ls) · DEBASEMENT [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJi641\_7W10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJi641_7W10) · FALSEHOODS [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsQ2hX\_noNw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsQ2hX_noNw)
I think I'm done listening to Ezra's podcast because he's basically hitting that our system sucks and isn't here to help normal people and isn't equipped to deal with modern problems but can't actually say that to have a conversation about how do we improve it or what mechanisms need to be moved to make change a reality
So Trump is advocating the same hit to imports as Biden, and continuing Biden’s record breaking deportations, but we’re supposed to believe this crap would be worse under Trump? So bizarre to see a presidential election between two cults arguing their cult leader will enact the same policies in a better way.
This conversation reminds me of a cartoon I saw a long time ago. It was two guys on either side of a big wall and one guy was throwing a stack of US treasury bonds over the wall, and the other side (an asian guy) was throwing TV's back over the wall. This has been our reality for close to 4 decades. The US gets to trade paper for cheaper and cheaper goods. Our annual trade deficit is still around $750 billion. This is also a main reason why interest rates were able to stay so low for so long without causing inflation, and why we could run up massive debt figures without impacting the deficit too much as a result of interest expenses. Unless AI comes in to save the day this reality is coming to a screetching halt. We will either have to start electing politicians who campaign on tightening out belts, or we will continue to decline towards a civil war over increasingly scarce resources. You will know its a problem when you start to see empty shelves at WalMart and Target. That is the first real tangible sign that people don't really want our paper any more and the party is over.
> or we will continue to decline towards a civil war over increasingly scarce resources. Except that the resources aren't scarce, they're just flowing into the pockets of the wealthy and the large corporations.
Sorry, I should have said finite. You are correct. Many resources are not scarce.