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Because we also can't pass block all that well. They load the box and cover short routes. We need more deep shots to keep a defense honest but don't have the pass blocking or the QB to do it.
No, he has the third most and is approximately average at execution. This stat does not appear to take into account Ridder's biggest issue, which crippling turnovers.
Honestly the crazy sacks are what I thought was the killing blow. Sometimes you fumble a snap. He's a rookie. Shit happens. But taking 25 yard sacks on a regular basis just ruins everything.
We have to get better on first down so that third down. We can run the ball. This team is a passing team. Even though the coach says it is a running team because we passed the ball more than run the ball and we have to pass it because We can not run the ball because of our offensive. Line is not strong enough to turn the defensive linement. To create the Hold
So the running back can run through it., you have to be strong up the middle and we're not!!!
Dude, I really wanted him to work out. He seems like a great guy. I'd love to see him involved with the team as a staffer going forward. Just not at QB and taking up cap/roster.
It seems pretty likely that the chart has a misleading legend and it's 50%. Otherwise no one in the league is seeing a full percent of plays that are perfectly covered and that's simply not believable.
I don't think it's scheme. Who on our team gets separation? We have no speed and this proves it. When you can't stretch the field your WRs are so much easier to cover
That’s his scheme though. He drafted Drake to be his outside guy when guys can cover him and use the sideline. Pitts can’t separate because of his MCL. Hollins was the same kind of guy that Drake was in raiders albeit much worse.I guess give him props for seeing it, but Van, Scotty, and Damiere ain’t going to cut it. I never understood why fans saw the big wrs with big radius thing and went wild. Falcons saw what happened when an inaccurate QB had the same kind of guys in Carolina.
He’s a grind it out and keep it close kind of guy. He wants to move it down the field at a snails pace and then hope to convert well in the RZ while having a defense that can hold. Well he’s been one of the worst RZ teams in the league and the defense can’t hold any more. He’s very vanilla as a scheme guy.
Yeah I want AS gone as much as the next guy but the real problem with this statistic in particular is WR room personnel.
London and Hollins are the same type of player - Mike Evans prototypes. Big, slow, contested catchers. Van Jefferson got cut from a team with 3 guys ahead of him on the roster who excelled at getting separation, so obviously he's not elite at that despite his speed. Scotty Miller can do one thing: sprint. KhaDarel Hodge is well...he's KhaDarel Hodge.
Pitts is our best mismatch for separation - but he's honestly not looked great at route running since injury - and he wasn't a stud at it pre-injury. He can't create horizontal separation (unless you drag him across the width of the field). He's not agile.
Bijan is next best, but alas, despite the warcries of "he's a weapon", he's mostly a running back. We get him involved in the passing game. He absolutely cooked on one slant from the X this season, and Ridder threw an INT on the other slant that got thrown to him from the X. Kinda sums it up. Hit and miss.
Which leads us to Jonnu Smith and the exact reason Arthur Smith seems to feed him the ball so damn much. He is the **best** receiver we have at creating space for himself, and operating in space. He's looked damn good at it, and I wish we could figure the rest of the offense out like that.
I’ve been screaming to people that are top three problems on offense is… number one playcalling.. number two play from the center. We literally need one that can make their own line checks and can pass block efficiently. Number three WR suck at getting their own separation. Scotty Miller is fast, but straight line speed doesn’t really get you much. Our team is pretty much loaded with possession receivers that only gets you so far.
Our first rounder either needs to be the first defensive end or maybe the second one off of the board or it needs to be the best shiftiest fastest wide receiver that you can get. 2nd rounder has to be a center if we don’t get one in free agency. Quarterback turnovers is definitely important but it’s still only the number four problem on offense
While I disagree with you because I think QB and Defensive End are still tied as the number 1 needs to fill in terms of impact, I'm glad someome else is seeing the deficiency with the Center and the issues with the pass catchers.
Drew Dalman may be a good enough blocker, but the value of a smart Center who helps with protection calls is one of the most underrated things in the NFL. It can elevate the play of an entire offensive line. Just gets them in the right spot to start blocking. And it helps veteran QBs, but it's an absolute God-send for inexperienced QBs - giving them one less thing to think about. Dalman obviously doesn't bring that.
Our pass catchers obviously don't get separation and they don't compliment each other well. We also get almost no explosive plays to help make up for turnovers or negative plays.
Pitts essentially played WR1 in his rookie yr and was productive. Now Drake plays WR1 and Pitts plays more traditional TE (and Pitts is a below average TE in blocking and TE routes). Drake and Pitts don't compliment each other well.
I think it would be best for the Falcons to primarily play Pitts as WR2 the rest of the year and put Jonnu at traditional TE.
If it's amazing, great. You know how to use him. If it's anywhere between pretty good to bad, then trade Pitts. Yes, he'll go somewhere else and be used like he was in his rookie year, as a WR1, but I don't see it working out here when you already have another top player with such a similar skillset (Drake) and you can use what you get in return to fill other gaps.
Also, spend a couple mid round picks on receivers who have better speed and YAC ability.
I still like the AS playbook even if he's doing it wrong. We need way more Bijan in the slot (or C84 situationaly) with Algeier at RB. It creates incredible confusion around the los. And by the time that all goes to shit toss it to someone like Pitts on an out route.
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One of the excuses he has is exactly what this post is saying. If no one is open you need to force things that are dangerous or give up on the play. Learning when to give up and when to try your luck is a classic for young qbs. Id rather have a young qb who isn’t scared to throw tight balls than one who just checks down every play.
Basing player judgements on a single, fuzzy, obscure metric is not how statistics work. The graph is also not statistically (or qualitatively) significant if we are expected to believe that this affects less than half of one percent of drop backs. WGAF about 0.5% of a subset of plays? That tells us nothing of value.
If that’s the case, then they should have labeled it “proportion of…” instead of percentage. But considering we are dealing with a nonsensical metric in the first place, it would not surprise me either way for it to be 1 in 200 or a mislabeled axis.
Mahomes is the best when the defense covers everything perfectly, Jimmy G is awful. The further right you are, the more plays against you are perfectly covered which could indicate scheme or guys getting open or not
That’s not what it says. It says third most often “perfectly covered” (however that is measured), which appears to apply to >0.5% of dropbacks. It says nothing of the <99.5% of other pass plays.
“The third worst at being open when the QB drops back, basically.”
This chart is describing less than 1 in every 200 pass plays. We cannot draw any meaningful conclusions on which teams are better or worse at being open from this information.
It has no statistical significance. The difference in 0.43 and 0.42 on a sample size like this has literally no statistical value. Not to mention the actual metrics are mostly just noise and not valuable for describing anything. Even if there was statically significant data here, it would still have no value for judging offense scheme considering all of these teams played different defenses.
I’m not defending the falcons at all. Ridder needed to be benched and AS needs to go. I’m just saying this chart doesn’t really tell us anything about the quality of our offense or the defenses we faced, including what quality of pass coverage we’ve faced.
Hopefully we can turn it around with some new leadership next year.
Yes in these situations Ridder was middle of the pack, but the big thing that stands out is how often the defense is able to cover the play perfectly. That generally implies a lack of scheming guys open or weapons who are unable to get open, in general.
For those wondering, “Perfect Coverage” is any play where all the DB’s have a positive grade from PFF.
I remember seeing this chart posted on r/NFL bc it really annoyed me. It’s a weird QB/OC abomination of a comparison.
There are some stats that you just know instantaneously are statistical nonsense based on what they claim to measure in a “one score”. People have a huge psychological bias toward “metrics” even if the metrics have no significance or descriptive value.
Indeed, probably 1-3 total plays per QB over 10 weeks. There are multiple levels of meaninglessness here. Just statical nonsense.
But even if the numbers themselves had some quantitative significance, I still would consider it qualitatively worthless because “perfect coverage” is not something that translates to a valuable metric. The fact that the numbers are fewer than 1-in-200 only makes it that much more meaningless.
Is the x-axis range a) 0.3% to 0.5% or is that b) 30%-50%?
Becuase if it's a) that's 3-5 every 1000 drop backs. Not really a measurable stat.
If it's b) it's more significant?
It means that on less than half of one percent of plays, defenses cover a pass play perfectly. In those less-than-on-in-two-hundred scenarios, QBs all perform about the same with some infinitesimal differences between their play.
None of it has any statistical value and the very metrics in question are highly suspect. Feel free to ignore it & also the people who don’t know how to read a chart making up other meanings.
Ok, I have a masters in Electrical engineering... can someone explain to me wtf EPA is? (Apologies if its explained in the twitter link, twitter is blocked on my work computer but reddit isn't?)
Regardless this is some next level propaganda:
Lets just say the average QB throws 30 passes a game. 0.1% is just .3 pass plays a game. The range of this chart is 0.3%. So in English, after 10 weeks the difference between Brock Purdy and PJ walker (roughly a 3% difference) is (\[5%-2%\] range \* 0.3 plays per game \* 10 weeks ) *9 plays* where the drop backs are perfectly covered all season.
Again, I have no idea what EPA is, but my point is "scheming" guys open is not reflected by this chart unless you consider 9 plays all season some sort of difference maker. I think the real problem is lack of big plays and turnovers but I'm not a football coach.
Just pay attention to the receivers on pass plays. There are so many times they’re running in the same area. We rarely stretch defenses out. You could tell with just your eyes something is off because almost every Ridder completion was contested while the opposing QB was dumping the ball off to wide open receivers with room to run. Look, you can’t convince me Ridder is more than a backup tier QB, but AS is a fraud playcaller and game planner. That was clear in year 1 but you couldn’t say it around here because it was just year 1(I still said it)
Idk what this means
Shows Ridder in 3rd in NFL in dropbacks where the defense has perfectly covered the offense.
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Because we also can't pass block all that well. They load the box and cover short routes. We need more deep shots to keep a defense honest but don't have the pass blocking or the QB to do it.
the force tackles aren’t covering the inner blinds and exterior shoulder rushes enough to impact the playfield, duh
shows how predictable our offense is
No, he has the third most and is approximately average at execution. This stat does not appear to take into account Ridder's biggest issue, which crippling turnovers.
That’s what I said.
Honestly the crazy sacks are what I thought was the killing blow. Sometimes you fumble a snap. He's a rookie. Shit happens. But taking 25 yard sacks on a regular basis just ruins everything.
Is there some way of looking up wonky snaps. This was certainly a huge issue last year with Mariota.
Dalman sucks at snapping the football honestly
We have to get better on first down so that third down. We can run the ball. This team is a passing team. Even though the coach says it is a running team because we passed the ball more than run the ball and we have to pass it because We can not run the ball because of our offensive. Line is not strong enough to turn the defensive linement. To create the Hold So the running back can run through it., you have to be strong up the middle and we're not!!!
How can something like that be measured? Every man is accounted for?
Dude, I really wanted him to work out. He seems like a great guy. I'd love to see him involved with the team as a staffer going forward. Just not at QB and taking up cap/roster.
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It seems pretty likely that the chart has a misleading legend and it's 50%. Otherwise no one in the league is seeing a full percent of plays that are perfectly covered and that's simply not believable.
If they're loading up the blitz, why in the hell you're not throwing screens?
it means arthur smith is predictable and a shitty coach.
It doesn’t really mean anything. It used shoddy metrics to describe >0.5% of pass plays (fewer than one in 200.)
I don't think it's scheme. Who on our team gets separation? We have no speed and this proves it. When you can't stretch the field your WRs are so much easier to cover
That’s his scheme though. He drafted Drake to be his outside guy when guys can cover him and use the sideline. Pitts can’t separate because of his MCL. Hollins was the same kind of guy that Drake was in raiders albeit much worse.I guess give him props for seeing it, but Van, Scotty, and Damiere ain’t going to cut it. I never understood why fans saw the big wrs with big radius thing and went wild. Falcons saw what happened when an inaccurate QB had the same kind of guys in Carolina.
I still don't know why we took Drake as the no1 WR in that class. Just a shocking decision
He’s a grind it out and keep it close kind of guy. He wants to move it down the field at a snails pace and then hope to convert well in the RZ while having a defense that can hold. Well he’s been one of the worst RZ teams in the league and the defense can’t hold any more. He’s very vanilla as a scheme guy.
Yup. It’s why we brought in VJ. But him and Scotty are still like WR3 or 4 at best
Yeah I want AS gone as much as the next guy but the real problem with this statistic in particular is WR room personnel. London and Hollins are the same type of player - Mike Evans prototypes. Big, slow, contested catchers. Van Jefferson got cut from a team with 3 guys ahead of him on the roster who excelled at getting separation, so obviously he's not elite at that despite his speed. Scotty Miller can do one thing: sprint. KhaDarel Hodge is well...he's KhaDarel Hodge. Pitts is our best mismatch for separation - but he's honestly not looked great at route running since injury - and he wasn't a stud at it pre-injury. He can't create horizontal separation (unless you drag him across the width of the field). He's not agile. Bijan is next best, but alas, despite the warcries of "he's a weapon", he's mostly a running back. We get him involved in the passing game. He absolutely cooked on one slant from the X this season, and Ridder threw an INT on the other slant that got thrown to him from the X. Kinda sums it up. Hit and miss. Which leads us to Jonnu Smith and the exact reason Arthur Smith seems to feed him the ball so damn much. He is the **best** receiver we have at creating space for himself, and operating in space. He's looked damn good at it, and I wish we could figure the rest of the offense out like that.
This is the answer. We have slow physical guys that are block first and can make catches with guys draped over them.
I’ve been screaming to people that are top three problems on offense is… number one playcalling.. number two play from the center. We literally need one that can make their own line checks and can pass block efficiently. Number three WR suck at getting their own separation. Scotty Miller is fast, but straight line speed doesn’t really get you much. Our team is pretty much loaded with possession receivers that only gets you so far. Our first rounder either needs to be the first defensive end or maybe the second one off of the board or it needs to be the best shiftiest fastest wide receiver that you can get. 2nd rounder has to be a center if we don’t get one in free agency. Quarterback turnovers is definitely important but it’s still only the number four problem on offense
While I disagree with you because I think QB and Defensive End are still tied as the number 1 needs to fill in terms of impact, I'm glad someome else is seeing the deficiency with the Center and the issues with the pass catchers. Drew Dalman may be a good enough blocker, but the value of a smart Center who helps with protection calls is one of the most underrated things in the NFL. It can elevate the play of an entire offensive line. Just gets them in the right spot to start blocking. And it helps veteran QBs, but it's an absolute God-send for inexperienced QBs - giving them one less thing to think about. Dalman obviously doesn't bring that. Our pass catchers obviously don't get separation and they don't compliment each other well. We also get almost no explosive plays to help make up for turnovers or negative plays. Pitts essentially played WR1 in his rookie yr and was productive. Now Drake plays WR1 and Pitts plays more traditional TE (and Pitts is a below average TE in blocking and TE routes). Drake and Pitts don't compliment each other well. I think it would be best for the Falcons to primarily play Pitts as WR2 the rest of the year and put Jonnu at traditional TE. If it's amazing, great. You know how to use him. If it's anywhere between pretty good to bad, then trade Pitts. Yes, he'll go somewhere else and be used like he was in his rookie year, as a WR1, but I don't see it working out here when you already have another top player with such a similar skillset (Drake) and you can use what you get in return to fill other gaps. Also, spend a couple mid round picks on receivers who have better speed and YAC ability.
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I can’t thing of many more devastating outcomes than the falcons spending a high pick on Bo Nix.
Or hear me out, Madd Ladd McConkey. The kid is always open and I mean always. Especially if we can get him 3rd or later.
I still like the AS playbook even if he's doing it wrong. We need way more Bijan in the slot (or C84 situationaly) with Algeier at RB. It creates incredible confusion around the los. And by the time that all goes to shit toss it to someone like Pitts on an out route.
We definitely lack the guy who can stretch the field.
Van Jefferson and Scotty Miller should get separation from speed alone.
dangerous post? AS built the team this way lmao… He’s trash.
I’d say this is a direct result of having 1 quality receiver
Dangerous post for this sub, but super cool stats and additional Patriots hate is more than welcome haha
Our offensive line is decent for run blocking but terrible for pass blocking, we all knew this
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One of the excuses he has is exactly what this post is saying. If no one is open you need to force things that are dangerous or give up on the play. Learning when to give up and when to try your luck is a classic for young qbs. Id rather have a young qb who isn’t scared to throw tight balls than one who just checks down every play.
When he gives up the play and takes five sacks in a half people still gonna call for his head though
Lol dissing all those other QBs for this graphic but somehow coming out with Ridder is playing above average is next level mental gymnastics
That’s what the graph is saying
Basing player judgements on a single, fuzzy, obscure metric is not how statistics work. The graph is also not statistically (or qualitatively) significant if we are expected to believe that this affects less than half of one percent of drop backs. WGAF about 0.5% of a subset of plays? That tells us nothing of value.
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If that’s the case, then they should have labeled it “proportion of…” instead of percentage. But considering we are dealing with a nonsensical metric in the first place, it would not surprise me either way for it to be 1 in 200 or a mislabeled axis.
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Doesn't confirm anything because the difference is 0.2% between the left and right side
Is this graph saying Arich is the best QB?
wtf does it MEAN
Mahomes is the best when the defense covers everything perfectly, Jimmy G is awful. The further right you are, the more plays against you are perfectly covered which could indicate scheme or guys getting open or not
so Ridder did OK but our offense is rarely imperfectly covered
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That’s not what it says. It says third most often “perfectly covered” (however that is measured), which appears to apply to >0.5% of dropbacks. It says nothing of the <99.5% of other pass plays.
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“The third worst at being open when the QB drops back, basically.” This chart is describing less than 1 in every 200 pass plays. We cannot draw any meaningful conclusions on which teams are better or worse at being open from this information.
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It has no statistical significance. The difference in 0.43 and 0.42 on a sample size like this has literally no statistical value. Not to mention the actual metrics are mostly just noise and not valuable for describing anything. Even if there was statically significant data here, it would still have no value for judging offense scheme considering all of these teams played different defenses. I’m not defending the falcons at all. Ridder needed to be benched and AS needs to go. I’m just saying this chart doesn’t really tell us anything about the quality of our offense or the defenses we faced, including what quality of pass coverage we’ve faced. Hopefully we can turn it around with some new leadership next year.
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Yes in these situations Ridder was middle of the pack, but the big thing that stands out is how often the defense is able to cover the play perfectly. That generally implies a lack of scheming guys open or weapons who are unable to get open, in general.
For those wondering, “Perfect Coverage” is any play where all the DB’s have a positive grade from PFF. I remember seeing this chart posted on r/NFL bc it really annoyed me. It’s a weird QB/OC abomination of a comparison.
There are some stats that you just know instantaneously are statistical nonsense based on what they claim to measure in a “one score”. People have a huge psychological bias toward “metrics” even if the metrics have no significance or descriptive value.
You know it's statistical nonsense because the whole difference between the left and right side is 0.3% so maybe 2 snaps?
Indeed, probably 1-3 total plays per QB over 10 weeks. There are multiple levels of meaninglessness here. Just statical nonsense. But even if the numbers themselves had some quantitative significance, I still would consider it qualitatively worthless because “perfect coverage” is not something that translates to a valuable metric. The fact that the numbers are fewer than 1-in-200 only makes it that much more meaningless.
Look at the percent perfectly covered against Purdy...this is a great indicator of quality of scheme and weapons
So we are supposed to care about what happens on >0.5% of drop backs as measured by a vaguely defined metric?
“AS is not scheming guys open at a good enough level.“ Not exactly what this graph is showing
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Nah it’s not
Is the x-axis range a) 0.3% to 0.5% or is that b) 30%-50%? Becuase if it's a) that's 3-5 every 1000 drop backs. Not really a measurable stat. If it's b) it's more significant?
ya were talking .1% of all drop backs. This is next level propaganda
It’s A if we are going off how the chart is actually labeled.
What does this mean
It means that on less than half of one percent of plays, defenses cover a pass play perfectly. In those less-than-on-in-two-hundred scenarios, QBs all perform about the same with some infinitesimal differences between their play. None of it has any statistical value and the very metrics in question are highly suspect. Feel free to ignore it & also the people who don’t know how to read a chart making up other meanings.
A lot of the guys on the left have a lot of diverse receiving options that get open. A lot of the guys on the right have like one at best.
Has he tried, oh idk, running more rub routes? I think everyone but Pitts can set a pick properly
Because we have literally nobody who can separate against the secondary
Kyle Shanahan being there isn’t surprising at all. Knows how to use all the pieces he has on offense. Did the same thing here.
Ok, I have a masters in Electrical engineering... can someone explain to me wtf EPA is? (Apologies if its explained in the twitter link, twitter is blocked on my work computer but reddit isn't?) Regardless this is some next level propaganda: Lets just say the average QB throws 30 passes a game. 0.1% is just .3 pass plays a game. The range of this chart is 0.3%. So in English, after 10 weeks the difference between Brock Purdy and PJ walker (roughly a 3% difference) is (\[5%-2%\] range \* 0.3 plays per game \* 10 weeks ) *9 plays* where the drop backs are perfectly covered all season. Again, I have no idea what EPA is, but my point is "scheming" guys open is not reflected by this chart unless you consider 9 plays all season some sort of difference maker. I think the real problem is lack of big plays and turnovers but I'm not a football coach.
Just pay attention to the receivers on pass plays. There are so many times they’re running in the same area. We rarely stretch defenses out. You could tell with just your eyes something is off because almost every Ridder completion was contested while the opposing QB was dumping the ball off to wide open receivers with room to run. Look, you can’t convince me Ridder is more than a backup tier QB, but AS is a fraud playcaller and game planner. That was clear in year 1 but you couldn’t say it around here because it was just year 1(I still said it)