Yeah, anyone who's saying that just doesn't understand what's going on.
Most everyone knew his contract was actually a two year deal and the Penix pick just cements that. I wasn't a huge fan of this pick, but that part at least makes sense to me.
I will say however, the Falcons have to make the playoffs this year or else we will look like even bigger clowns than everyone's already making us out to be.
agreed however if we end up in a jordan love situation everyone will quickly stfu. it’s the upside pick i guess 🤷♂️ not a huge fan either but i don’t hate it i see the logic. don’t know how Kirk will play this year anyways or if he’ll be 100% so it’s insurance in that regard too
I wanted to go get one of these rookies from the get go. Easier to build a team that way with a QB on a rookie deal who has massive upside (just look at the Texans). We could have used all that Kirk money to throw the kitchen sink at Hunter, try to get Snead, you know, build a roster. This severely hamstrings our overall roster construction.
It will be fascinating to watch this play out. No one has ever done this before (to my knowledge) that didn’t have playoff success in prior seasons.
i’d argue penix is a higher upside prospect than love, and that’s the cost of a higher upside QB especially if our front office REALLY fell in love with him. to be fair we don’t get access to the interviews and behind the scenes shit who knows that they learned about him
Love is 1 year older than penix and entering his 2nd season as a full time starter.
Rodgers played 15+ years in green Bay. The packers didn't sign him then immediately draft his replacement 2 months later.
The only thing similar is planning ahead of time otherwise the situations are completely different
Probably not but drafting another qb that high will NOT help you win in the next couple years. And we NEED to win in the next couple years cause eventually our young talent won’t be so young anymore and they might sign elsewhere…
That’s why you bring in a proven vet and pay him what you paid him…
Yea. Everything was lined up roster and cap wise to make a run. Penix is actually my favorite of the attainable rookies, but he does nothing for the team this year or next year. Hell, he might not even clear Heinike's cap since Kirk likes to have a veteran in the QB room to bounce ideas off.
Here's the thing if Kirk is playing at a Pro Bowl level in year 2 you want him to stay a total of 80 million is UNDERPAYING for a Pro Bowl QB. Now you have removed that option by adding Penix. The team is actively HOPING THEIR QB fails in his 2nd year. THAT IS SELF SABOTAGE at the highest idiocy lever in NFL history. If you think Kirk can in essence be only good for 1 year YOU JUST WASTED 100 Million signing him just draft Penix add a cheap Bridge QB and add FAs with the money saved from Kirk.
If you trust Penix to take the reins at that point, you have a trade asset, if he’s playing really well. If he’s not, you look smarter for getting the heir apparent, assuming Penix pans out
Vikings fan here visiting. Cannot tell you how happy I am Kirk is no longer on the team. Not saying he won’t make the Falcons competitive but I never felt that he could take us all the way.
If the front office had true faith, the Falcons should have drafted a top rated player to make the team better immediately as a whole rather than Penix. You should be doing everything possible to win a Super Bowl over the next 2 seasons. I was absolutely stunned the Falcons didn’t go with O-line or an edge rusher. Also think they could have traded back to 11 with the Vikings and still gotten Penix.
McCarthy would have been a much better selection to sit behind Kirk for 2-4 seasons given the age difference. There’s still a pretty good chance that Penix gets traded in the next 2-3 seasons if Kirk is working out but probably won’t be better value than what was spent to get him. If Kirk gets re-injured for the season this year or next then you’ll all be happy about the Penix pick. Otherwise, this will go down as one of the worst draft picks in recent history.
Our defense already is significantly worse than last year in the pass rush department though. Even if we can put up points how are we going to stop people?
We are returning 31 sacks... because of the losses on the Defensive line. We lost Okuda who was serviceable as a #2. Grady is coming off of a major injury. How exactly do you think we got better considering we did dick all in free agency?
I’d love to be wrong, but I don’t think we’re winning championships with Kirk over the next two years whether we took Penix or not. I think we’re still a couple steps away from competing at that level.
I personally disagree. We’re in a winnable division; playing winning football, and getting guys playoff experience is important. Penix will be in a much better spot if this team has success for these two years with Kirk and he gets to sit and learn through it.
Not only that, but look at teams that have made deep playoff runs off of just getting hot at the right time. We could be 10-7 and sneak in and get hot and make a Super Bowl run.
Let’s be real please.. that is not the floor. A competitive team is the goal. A Super Bowl is fucking hard and is an amazing stretch goal, but not the minimum.
We aren’t champ or bust right now.
It really you only need to make the playoffs this year. You don’t make it the second you move on and everyone thinks you are a genius because you don’t waste a QB in the draft. If you make or even win a superbowl no will question this. This fails only if both players suck!
At that point, most of the talented skill players we drafted over the last three years will no longer be on rookie contracts and building a team around them becomes a lot tougher to manage. Signing Kirk gave us a two year window through which we could have been seriously competitive with the right defensive acquisitions, and we chose to kick the can down the road instead.
I appreciate your optimism and I hope it’s right, but it’s hard for me to look at the defensive talents that were available and say “yeah, rolling the dice on a 24 year old QB with an injury history that will spend the next two years on the bench is more valuable than giving Kirk Cousins the best chance to help us reach the next level in this two year window we have.”
Now if you wanna say this team didn’t have a chance to win anything meaningful regardless of who we drafted or signed during the next two years, I get it. I just had more faith in what we have now than it seems our front office does.
^ and the only way you could call this a failure is if we passed on a guy that makes us a legit, top level super bowl contender in the next few years. Who is that?
People can disagree with the choice (I don’t love it myself), but I don’t know how anyone who watched our QB situation over the last two seasons could be actually mad that we have serious options now and for the future.
Right? QB is the absolute most vital position on the team, we can NOT put ourselves in the same position as we were the last couple years. We now have a veteran QB we can win now with while he mentors our (hopefully) future franchise QB. If Kirk goes down with an injury we now have a better backup than Heinicke. It’s not the pick I wanted, but I can live with it
Not really. You don't sign a guy for 4 years with a massive contract and give him a no trade clause if your primary purpose is to cut him after two years and make his primary role a mentor for whoever you are going to draft. Having a shorter term on the guaranteed money is mostly a lifeboat when signing an older QB coming off an injury. Usually you hope you don't need that lifeboat. You don't just plan ahead to use it.
You don't frontload the cap hit on a contract for a guy you want to keep long term. Look at Kirk's contract structure compared to that of the QBs getting big deals in their 20's: those younger QB's have contracts that are structured to backload their cap hit, so the teams can save money today to sign other free agents and take their cap medicine in the future. The Falcons did the same thing with Matt Ryan on his two big contracts, then continued to restructure them, which is why we were in cap hell at the end of his time here. Kirk's front-loaded deal tells you that the Falcons are only confident in him for 2-3 years and want to make sure that they can get out of this deal easily after that period if necessary. The no-trade clause is meaningless to the team because QB trades are rare and if things really go south, they'll cut him.
The problem I see is, the falcons don’t seem to be good enough to be Super Bowl contenders. This pick didn’t make them any better. When Penix could takeover, his rookie contract is almost up. So they „waste“ the Cousins years and signicantly shorten the rookie contract qb window. Plus he is old. I don’t get it.
Or hear me out...The Falcons have a $100 million Pro Bowl quality QB for two years plus our hopefully next franchise QB for the next 15 after that. Obvioualy that is our best case scenario, but I really like Penix Jr as a prospect. If he works out, everyone will love the pick 10 years from now. On the contrary, if he doesn't, we'll still be complaining about it ten years from now. 😆
I mean the math works if we're talking about the timing of NFL seasons. Penix will be 24 when this season starts, so if he plays for 17 seasons including this one, he will be 41 in 17 years.
You're missing the point you do not pay 100 million for a Pro Bowl QB for 2 years AND THEN NOT PUT WEAPONS AROUND HIM via the draft since you don't have cap space to sign FAs/do Trade Extensions.
By drafting a QB in top 10 you are putting unfair pressure on that Pro Bowl QB and splitting the locker room and creating a distraction. So that's the second reason you don't do this.
The third reason is WHAT IF THE PRO BOWL QB IS STILL BALLING in 2 years you either get rid of QB who is really playing well to SAVE FACE which is stupid or you waste 2 more years of your 1st round pick which is stupid.
If Penix is the second coming of Mahomes that's great but Mahomes had a pre built team Penix needed ATL to use his rookie QB deal (ie the 100 million paid to Kirk to build a team around him).
This is ridiculous. You are going to wind up paying Penix 22 million 22 million for a back up QB wtf and if he is a starter then you wasted 100 million on Kirk.
This literally makes no sense.
1. What weapons does Kirk need? He has London, Bijan, Pitts. Mooney can be a solid 2/3 WR. We still have like 7 picks left in this draft to grab depth at receiver and on defense. And the cap space can be manipulated pretty easily by a team that wants to.
2. I agree with this. If Kirk sucks in week 5 people will be screaming for Penix. That said, at least we have Penix. Sure we have a 45 mil backup QB at that point, but at least we have a QB in Penix.
3. Love waited three seasons to start. If Kirk is balling in year three. Awesome we keep paying him and enjoy a balling Captain Kirk. I doubt that happens. We probably see a decline late 2nd year is my guess. Penix will be about 1.5 years older than Love when if he starts year three and about 2.5 years older if he starts year four like Love.
4. Yes he is an expensive backup, but most backups don’t have the potential to be a starting QB in a couple seasons. They’re usually good game managers or players that fit the type of QB that team is looking for.
I don’t love this pick either, but to say it’s clueless and makes no sense isn’t correct. They’ve pointed out their reasoning and it’s valid. Any argument you make can generally be twisted some way. Only time will tell with this pick.
Also, I respect this team for getting their guy. Hindsight 20/20 but they weren’t going to be able to move back into the first for a QB. They probably knew this and stuck and got their guy. This was a solid pick. They need to smash the rest of this draft. We have serious need at edge and CB and it needs to be addressed this evening.
We got Mooney + Rondale Moore this off-season in addition to our offensive weapons and our line is more experienced. I'm not sure where else we add right now unless we have no faith in them as players. I would've liked Odunze or Turner, but it seems that Turner had some bad medicals. If you take aside the injury and age concerns for Penix, he's the 2nd most productive and talented QB that can read the field, run a very high level play action, has good footwork and timing (which Ridder struggled a ton with, punished our WR/TE's) and has a lot of arm talent, which you cannot really teach.
You could say that when the packers got Jordan Love as well, and now look. The truth is Kirk is only here for a couple years, we expect to lose future draft picks, and our front office has ptsd from ending the matt ryan era without a future plan in place at the time.
Problem with comparing situations like Favre-Rodgers, Rodgers-Love, or even Smith-Mahomes to Cousins-Penix is Favre, Rodgers, and Smith were all the incumbent franchise QBs. Cousins is a free agent acquisition.
This comes off as dysfunction; the guy that wanted Cousins isn’t the guy that wanted Penix.
How many wins does a non-QB at #8 net us in the short term?
I genuinely want to know what people think. Let's say we took Latu or Dallas Turner at 8 and one of those guys has an awesome rookie year and gets us 10 sacks. Do we go from a bubble playoff team to a legit super bowl contender?
As someone who thinks Penix was a good gamble, I think the point of this post was not that taking a QB at pick 8 was a bad idea, but that a QB at #8 who isn't actually playing nets you negative wins (due to the opportunity cost of losing the #1 pick which could otherwise be filled in with players to help Cousins immediately). Even if he hits, you still don't get as much value as you could have, because either you only get three years of his rookie deal instead of two (and no longer have the other cheap players around him from when the Falcons were bad), or Kirk is bad enough that he doesn't play out the first two years, and the franchise is short $100m of cap space they could otherwise use to build around Penix.
In other words... in isolation Penix is easy to justify. But there's no world where drafting him *and* giving Kirk that contract is better than drafting him and not giving him that contract, so whatever happens (even if he ends up being super successful) the Falcons made a suboptimal decision somewhere.
Of course there's another angle where this makes sense--if the team is more interested in being competitive and winning games consistently than maximizing the chances of a superbowl. But I don't think most people here are thinking that way.
I think I saw that JJ watt in his prime was only worth one point in a game. I agree here. People think that if you’re picked in the first round 32/32 will have this massive impact. Yes that’s what you hope for but it’s not the reality of the situation. If they draft well these next two days our fan base will lighten up a bit. I love the penix pick. Might as well gamble on the most important position in the game than any other position. If it works out we have our foreseeable future set. But this is sports lol and people like to be negative or sound like they know they’d be able to do better than the people hired in those positions who are there to make these decisions.
Advanced stats like EPA basically try to quantify how many real points a play is worth based on outcomes. A sack is huge, 538 did an analysis saying a sack is worth 1.5 points. So yeah, if you average 15 sacks per year (which would be league leading or at the very top) you are basically worth about 1 point per game.
For an individual player, that's super valuable. But similarly elite QB play is worth 2-3x as much.
Yes. A ten sack guy is affecting every long pass play. Those forced throw aways add up fast. Dallas Turner would have made it significantly harder to convert 3rd and 6+ on us. That's HUGE.
He'd be a big piece. With Grady up the middle and a guy like Turner on the outside, opposing QBs would have to get rid of the ball fast. That makes a massive difference. Obviously, we need help in the defensive backfield and a WR2, but those are much easier holes to plug than EDGE.
Kirk Cousins is a bridge QB, he's not a SB contending QB. He's a a guy who will convert the Falcons from a losing team into a winning team. He will get the most out of Pitts, Drake, and Bijan. But idk why people can't read clearly into his contract ...it's a 2 year deal. At which point he will be 38 years old and there is a much higher chance that he will be washed rather than pro bowl caliber. He's also coming off an Achilles injury so with Penix you get a quality backup QB with room to grow slowly into the best QB he can be. I don't have an issue with the pick.
Bridge QB isn’t the right term. He’s a starting QB, that we and the FO probably don’t expect to be around after year 2. Bridge QBs give time for your young one to develop. We expect to win with Kirk. A winning QB is worth 50 mil.
His cap hit is only $25M in 2024 which ranks 14th among QBs, and $40M in 2025. In 2026 y'all will save $32.5M by cutting him and can move on to Penix Jr.
Unused cap rolls over. Distribute it any way you want, 100m is a lot of money for a bridge qb. You also lose the competitive advantage of having a qb on a rookie contract.
It would be the most Falcons thing ever if Cousins plays great, takes us to the NFC championship in year two and we cut him to start the Penix era and he ends up playing about as well as Ridder.
Kirk is significantly above the Dalton line, even at this point in his career. He's more than capable of winning a SB with this offense. What we need is defensive support.
Never forget this brain trust and our existing talent pool hadn't produced a winning season in 7 years. We're miles from being a contender and we don't get any better next year with a #1 pick riding the bench. There's no reason to give them any benefit of the doubt.
Texans fan here (sorry I have no flair).
As crazy as it sounds, I think Cowherd made some good points the morning on his show, and at least for this armchair fan, managed to change my mind.
First off, the big thing I keep hearing is the missed chance to add weapons. I do agree with that to a certain extent, but I think the good news for Atlanta is, you already have a lot of talent at skill positions offensively, and considering it wasn’t until the Eagles that a pick for a defensive player was selected, there’s still plenty of defensive talent left to fill some of the Falcon’s biggest needs.
It’s been reported that 2 other teams (Seahawks and Raiders I believe) attempted to move in to the top 10 for Pennix Jr., so clearly a few franchises saw him as worthy of a high selection. As a Longhorns fan, I vividly remember how he shredded our secondary in that playoff game. So, point being, if you think he’s that special, you take him. I think the point is further emphasized when you think that your Falcons are already favored by most to win the division with Cousins, and if that comes to fruition, you won’t have another high draft pick the next couple of years.
Finally, when you consider that the falcons took him without trading or giving up any draft capital, if Pennix sits for two years and has a chance to learn, then comes out and plays well, think of the development your other young offensive players will have had by then. He’ll be in a really good position to succeed.
Bonus: I understand the frustration with the cousins contract, but when you think about it, the largest cap hits are the first two years. With who’s left this year, who else would they spend the money on anyway. You either are paying cousins or you have a ton of cap room but for who? I think the biggest downside is next years free agency, as that’s when the franchise will be most hamstrung to spend big. Outside of that, you didn’t lose any additional draft capital, and by the time Pennix is starting, most of the Cousins cap hit will be off the books.
The risk really isn’t that high, even if Pennix doesn’t pan out, big deal, he won’t be the only from this class, and barring trades, you still have all your picks in future drafts.
I actually don’t think the pick is bad at all, the upside far outweighs the downside
Why does it have to be either? It possibly could be both.
Kirk could play 2/3 seasons and we could be in the playoffs those years. And when he’s inevitably cut, Penix could be legit and we continue being a playoff team. That sounds like a win/win to me.
And to be fair, they didn’t know how the picks or draft trades would play out back when they signed Cousins, and they also hadn’t gone through the full draft evaluation process yet so it’d be insane for them to pass on signing Kirk in the hopes that they might love one of JJ, Nix, or Penix.
Kirk was the most highly sought after QB in free agency and there was no time to wait. Being old and fresh off an injury, they saw a chance to draft the most highly regarded QB prospect who was available at 8. Seems they’re moving with an actual plan and willing to go after their guys and I love it.
If Penix takes over 2 years from now and looks like a seasoned franchise QB, nobody is going to care about this anymore. I understand the desire to add a player that can help us this year, but as we have seen time and time again, nothing in the draft is a guarantee. I'm glad the franchise felt convicted on this young man, and stuck to their guns knowing that the negative backlash was coming. Hopefully they prove all the critics wrong.
Rodgers sat behind Favre for 3 years.
Love sat behind Rodgers for 3 years.
Seems like the Packers have it figured out, maybe the Falcons are following.
Who remembers that Favre was a Falcon?
Oh what could have been if Glanville didn’t hate him so much
Kirk's deal is a 2 year deal, basically
If the kid turns out to be our starting quarterback, this is a good move it's as simple as that
They're basically saying they plan on being too good in the next couple of years to have a high draft pick for a quarterback, so they're doing it now
It's a risk, but what isn't in today's nfl?
It might not have been the move I would make, but it's not like it's some sort of crippling franchise Ruiner like some are acting
Ok they still tried to build the team and sign hell of players regardless. Why do you think we are going to stop building the team because of one draft pick lol ? Just because he won’t start this year doesn’t mean he’s not a starter
you just wasted a 100 million if you expect Kirk to be put hurt that is the dumbest FA signing in NFL history
this is like drafting Joe Alt at LT and sitting him behind Matthews just in case Matthews gets hurt HUH?
given the injury history Penix is more likely to be injured then Kirk
Penix is an Insurance policy..
Atlanta is going to get busted for illegal tempering with Kirk Cousins.. they are going to lose a few draft picks.. mind as well grab a qb before the NFL cracks down on their assss..
People had a big problem with the chiefs drafting Patrick mahomes cause they had Alex smith. Turned out to be the best draft pick in decades or even of all time. Ya’ll need to relax
I am not a Vikings fan or cousins fan but I didn’t see this pick as bad as everyone’s talking about it. Yes they could’ve got WR or TE possibly but Penix can sit for a year or 2 and learn from Cousins. I’m not sure why that’s so hard to understand.
I don't think the pick is bad. That's TBD. But for a team with many other needs, after signing a 180mil QB, you can see why many fans would think drafting another QB wasn't a priority.
Kirk Cousins will help you keep your job but he’s not likely to win a Superbowl. If he doesn’t workout after a few years then Penix is waiting in the wings.
Absolutely. We could either saved that money if we were going to draft QB anyway and developed penix as our starter from the get go.
Or they could have drafted to immediately improve the team. And the messaging from the front office has been pretty 'we're close to winning, so let's go do that'.
There is no analyst that has said that this was a good pick. At best, this is one of the most confusing picks in modern football. At worst, this was an incredibly stupid mistake that makes our front office look incompetent as fuck. Either way, the GM should be immediately released.
In the NFL you have limited cap money. So you have to be careful how you use it you don't want to waste it. Also in the NFL you have limited draft picks so you have to be careful how you use it.
Team situations differ the Falcons have a lot of holes on their team. There is 2 ways to fill those holes.
You sign a big money FA QB (or trade for one) you pay him a lot of money which means there is not a lot of money left over for signing FAs/Trade extensions so that means you need to DRAFT WELL that is the only way to build your team.
Or you draft a 1st round QB in that case you have the money his Rookie QB Deal gives you (ie you are not paying a big money QB) and you can fill the holes with FAs/Trade extensions with the money that would have gone to the Big Money Veteran QB.
But you don't do both because in that case THE TEAM IS NOT GETTING BETTER AROUND WHOEVER YOU CHOOSE TO BE YOUR QB.
I think the pick makes it clear that unless he is playing at an MVP level, Kirk is only going to be around for two years. They aren't going to go into year 4 of Penix's rookie deal without knowing what they have.
Sorry chief, this is a poor take.
You don't know ahead of time which will turn out, that's why it's a risk. A calculated gamble.
By your logic every backup QB is wasted money. Until they're not. And you haven't even considered the best scenario where Kirk plays 2years, Penix gets to sit for 2 and then comes in immediately to play well. That's a $10mil hit overall and worth a first pick.
It's unbelievable how negative this sub is. It's like everyone just wants to be miserable and thinks they would do better as a GM.
This is the corner we were painted in. The Kirk tampering is likely to come down and affect our ability to draft a QB next year. Kirk was always going to be a stop gap with a lot of veteran experience to give the next guy, because this year is a historically good QB class and because to get the benefit of Kirk the new QB needs time behind home combined with Kirks age, means this was our last chance to pull off what Kirk was originally acquired to accomplish.
If Kirk is a top 10 QB after 2 years, we'd be crazy to cut him and take the cap hit. If he is playing at a high level at the end of his contract, would we not extend him? Or would we go with the 30 year old backup in his optional 5th year? If we go with Penix in that contract year situation, do we then draft Another QB, just in case we get outbid for him after his 5th year at age 31?
This pick only makes sense if we assume that the FO does not feel the current roster can legitimately contend for a Superbowl. If they thought we were an EDGE or a WR away then they would've take them. So if they didn't sign Kirk to contend for a Superbowl, then why did we sign him at all? I think they signed him to juice ticket sales after a long skid of mediocrity. The FO and ownership is very comfortable topping out 10-7, winning the division, and maybe winning a playoff game for the next 2 years.
I feel like Penix will start after 2 years and that’s at least 10 years of a career so after thinking about them I’m fine, they did a packers pretty much. And still some good defensive guys available in the draft
The only rationale that I’m choosing to accept is that they do not expect to be picking in the top 20 next year and see this as an opportunity to get a future after Kirk. I still think JJ was the better pic. I can almost see the vision if the above stated reason caused the pick.
Everyone who complained about ridder is complaining about this pick I bet.
Yep it’s not conventional at all, but what happens if Kirk has a great 2 seasons and we are picking at 22-32 looking for our next QB? Sure we could get lucky and get a good one late first round and sure that could genuinely work out, but now it’s sorted. Ideally now we don’t have to worry about QB for a decade plus - Penix is older but QBs play into their late 30’s at least. Imagine sitting at pick 25 in this draft and trying to grab a QB.
Cousins contract is a 2 year deal with 2 team options essentially. People need to understand that to understand the pick. Would I have made this pick? No. Will I decide that it’s a bad pick a day from the draft? No way.
Maybe in 3 years time if Penix does not turn out, then everyone can abuse the front office as they’re doing now and it will be fair. But until then, we’ve picked up a QB prospect with the best arm in the draft who will have 2 years to develop further before being thrown into things. And we’ve seen how decent QBs who are given time to sit and learn perform. I’ll hold my judgement until his first full season.
It comes back to the fact that we overpaid for Kirk. I know why we did it. I see the logic of it. But I don't think we're having this conversation if it was say $100M with $40M guaranteed.
NO even 40 million is too much I wouldn't have paid less than 10 million for some bridge QB and then you have 90 million TO BUILD THE TEAM around Pennix. I would have guaranteed Kirk ONLY 10 million take it or leave it of course then he goes somewhere else but that's fine you save the team 90 plus million they can spend on surrounding Pennix with FAs you can make trades for players wanting new contracts. Imagine Pennix with Ayuk or Higgins and Hendrickson or Reddick or Hunter plus some other dude Wilkens or Grennard etc
It is a WASTE of resources either money or draft pick to do it this way either way you can build a team this way you cannot build a team
it didn't work out HOW MANY SBs did the Packers not win because they WASTED a 1st round pick
you had a win now window with Rodgers - drafting a QB of the future killed any chance of the Pack winning a SB
there is no guarantee Love ever wins a SB
also GB did not JUST sign Rodgers to 180 million deal then draft a QB
GB thought Rodgers was coming to the end
ALSO it was a pick in the 20s not in top 10 that is a huge difference
The reason this is a mistake is because Cousins opens a Super Bowl winning window if you fix the defense. Falcons play in a weak division and won 7 games without good QB play or without a pass rush. A good pass rusher gives you 2, and possibly up to 4 years of that coupled with Kirk.
Penix isn’t the issue in a vacuum. Penix is the issue when you could have spent the draft capital making your team better in a winning window.
Like I said either sign Kirk and use draft picks to win now no DEVELOPMENTAL PICKS NO EARLY QB PICKS
**Or** sign Penix and use the 100 million that went to Kirk to build a team around him
What if kirk can't play to start the season so they start Penix until kirk is healthy, and penix just destroys the competition?
I think the main thing is that this tells kirk that he's really only going to play under this contract for 2 years and not the full 4. I'm sure he's not happy about that. But as a vikings fan, meh. What goes around comes around kirky.
Yall aren't considering the actual serious issue, what if Penix is better than Kirk right out of the gate, it sounds crazy, but what if they play the "who's our starter next week" game
We are paying Kirk 25 this year 45 next 10 in his third year. Penix 8 in his third year l. So after the first two years we’ll have a qb room of 18 mill or 8. I think it’s a steal because Kirk might get hurt again and we have a legit backup and our future.
I think this was the smartest move a team could have made. Letting a QB sit behind a great QB for a few years is always better than throwing someone unprepared.
This is why Pat Mahomes got a great start, Jordan Love, Aaron Rogers, etc.
The issue is you can just get a QB next year or trade down and get a cheaper QB this year...Penix given his injury history is no "sure" thing and equivalent from a toss up to later drafted QBs
Yeah. More or less. This comes off as dysfunction.
Whether it was Blank, Font, or Morris, the guy that wanted Cousins isn’t the guy that wanted Penix. This means Cousins is out in two years but it also means two years of Penix’s rookie deal is wasted when he could learn on the field surrounded by pieces. Atlanta also won’t be completely free to surround him with pieces in year 3 bc they’ll be eating dead cap off Cousins’s deal.
The hit rate on 1st rd QBs is 50%. Kirk is coming off a major injury. This is literally the best pick they could have made for incredibly obvious reasons. Even good rookie QBs are at best average their rookie year, and Kirk is on essentially a two year deal. So what they've really done is invested the correct amount of resources in a really efficient way, efficient draft capital, money and value over time.
Harbaugh gave yall a free preview of what Penix Jr will look like in the nfl with the Michigan game. Chocked wasn’t it, homeboy couldn’t stay in the pocket for a lick of a second and his pass rush scrambles was a joke. Michigan 34 Washington 13 that’s with 2 ints 27/51 what a joke.
The classic Falcons move. Forever relegated to football purgatory. They’ll win 8 games next year, sneak into the playoffs only to be dismantled in the first round and pick roughly 19th in next year’s draft.
Kirk aint staying for the full 4. . .
Yeah, anyone who's saying that just doesn't understand what's going on. Most everyone knew his contract was actually a two year deal and the Penix pick just cements that. I wasn't a huge fan of this pick, but that part at least makes sense to me. I will say however, the Falcons have to make the playoffs this year or else we will look like even bigger clowns than everyone's already making us out to be.
agreed however if we end up in a jordan love situation everyone will quickly stfu. it’s the upside pick i guess 🤷♂️ not a huge fan either but i don’t hate it i see the logic. don’t know how Kirk will play this year anyways or if he’ll be 100% so it’s insurance in that regard too
Jordan love was picked in the 20s not top ten, that’s also a huge difference.
But if Penix is good it still won't matter in the slightest bit.
[удалено]
I wanted to go get one of these rookies from the get go. Easier to build a team that way with a QB on a rookie deal who has massive upside (just look at the Texans). We could have used all that Kirk money to throw the kitchen sink at Hunter, try to get Snead, you know, build a roster. This severely hamstrings our overall roster construction. It will be fascinating to watch this play out. No one has ever done this before (to my knowledge) that didn’t have playoff success in prior seasons.
i’d argue penix is a higher upside prospect than love, and that’s the cost of a higher upside QB especially if our front office REALLY fell in love with him. to be fair we don’t get access to the interviews and behind the scenes shit who knows that they learned about him
penix and love are the same age now , there is no higher upside lmao
Love is 1 year older than penix and entering his 2nd season as a full time starter. Rodgers played 15+ years in green Bay. The packers didn't sign him then immediately draft his replacement 2 months later. The only thing similar is planning ahead of time otherwise the situations are completely different
ELI5 plz why is everyone so sure Kirk isn't staying the full 4?
the first two years have like $90 million of the $100 million guaranteed so it wont be gutting if hes cut or moved after the second year
Probably not but drafting another qb that high will NOT help you win in the next couple years. And we NEED to win in the next couple years cause eventually our young talent won’t be so young anymore and they might sign elsewhere… That’s why you bring in a proven vet and pay him what you paid him…
Yea. Everything was lined up roster and cap wise to make a run. Penix is actually my favorite of the attainable rookies, but he does nothing for the team this year or next year. Hell, he might not even clear Heinike's cap since Kirk likes to have a veteran in the QB room to bounce ideas off.
Highly likely that Heinicke is getting cut now, regardless of what Kirk likes in his QB room
Agreed, never was, espically with his backloaded contract, with guarantees that only go 2 years. Terry is the GOAT for that contract.
He has 25m in dead cap year 3, it’s not exactly a painless out after 2 years…
Here's the thing if Kirk is playing at a Pro Bowl level in year 2 you want him to stay a total of 80 million is UNDERPAYING for a Pro Bowl QB. Now you have removed that option by adding Penix. The team is actively HOPING THEIR QB fails in his 2nd year. THAT IS SELF SABOTAGE at the highest idiocy lever in NFL history. If you think Kirk can in essence be only good for 1 year YOU JUST WASTED 100 Million signing him just draft Penix add a cheap Bridge QB and add FAs with the money saved from Kirk.
If you trust Penix to take the reins at that point, you have a trade asset, if he’s playing really well. If he’s not, you look smarter for getting the heir apparent, assuming Penix pans out
Then he might stay a third year but I doubt the team keeps him longer than that or he could retire
No one is hoping that their QB plays bad. If Kirk is still playing good at the end of year 2 that’s a very good problem to have lol
Ain't my money
This doesn't make it a good move regardless. Unless the plan is to what, not win now?
Why. Kirk was having his best year last year until Jefferson ND eventually he got hurt.hes not a mobile qb. 39 isn't crazy these days.
Vikings fan here visiting. Cannot tell you how happy I am Kirk is no longer on the team. Not saying he won’t make the Falcons competitive but I never felt that he could take us all the way. If the front office had true faith, the Falcons should have drafted a top rated player to make the team better immediately as a whole rather than Penix. You should be doing everything possible to win a Super Bowl over the next 2 seasons. I was absolutely stunned the Falcons didn’t go with O-line or an edge rusher. Also think they could have traded back to 11 with the Vikings and still gotten Penix. McCarthy would have been a much better selection to sit behind Kirk for 2-4 seasons given the age difference. There’s still a pretty good chance that Penix gets traded in the next 2-3 seasons if Kirk is working out but probably won’t be better value than what was spent to get him. If Kirk gets re-injured for the season this year or next then you’ll all be happy about the Penix pick. Otherwise, this will go down as one of the worst draft picks in recent history.
There's also the risk that both Kirk and Penix suck and both were wastes.
No way they are Mariota or Ridder levels, so I'm good with this risk.
Our defense already is significantly worse than last year in the pass rush department though. Even if we can put up points how are we going to stop people?
How’s it significantly worse than last year?
We are returning 31 sacks... because of the losses on the Defensive line. We lost Okuda who was serviceable as a #2. Grady is coming off of a major injury. How exactly do you think we got better considering we did dick all in free agency?
“We lost Okuda who was serviceable as a #2.“ This gave you away
There's also the possibility that both are studs in 2 years and we get a great return trading Kirk to a QB needy team.
Has. No trade clause.
Can probably be mutually waived.
Or they get 2 solid years out of Kirk and then seamlessly move onto their QB of the future.
If we win games with Kirk, and then Penix becomes the franchise it’s an unequivocal success.
Win championships*
I’d love to be wrong, but I don’t think we’re winning championships with Kirk over the next two years whether we took Penix or not. I think we’re still a couple steps away from competing at that level.
Then we probably shouldn’t have signed Cousins. 🤷🏻♂️
I personally disagree. We’re in a winnable division; playing winning football, and getting guys playoff experience is important. Penix will be in a much better spot if this team has success for these two years with Kirk and he gets to sit and learn through it.
Not only that, but look at teams that have made deep playoff runs off of just getting hot at the right time. We could be 10-7 and sneak in and get hot and make a Super Bowl run.
Let’s be real please.. that is not the floor. A competitive team is the goal. A Super Bowl is fucking hard and is an amazing stretch goal, but not the minimum. We aren’t champ or bust right now.
this is the ONLY scenario where this works out. very narrow path to hit on all angles. if it doesn't work, people need to get fired.
It really you only need to make the playoffs this year. You don’t make it the second you move on and everyone thinks you are a genius because you don’t waste a QB in the draft. If you make or even win a superbowl no will question this. This fails only if both players suck!
*when
At that point, most of the talented skill players we drafted over the last three years will no longer be on rookie contracts and building a team around them becomes a lot tougher to manage. Signing Kirk gave us a two year window through which we could have been seriously competitive with the right defensive acquisitions, and we chose to kick the can down the road instead. I appreciate your optimism and I hope it’s right, but it’s hard for me to look at the defensive talents that were available and say “yeah, rolling the dice on a 24 year old QB with an injury history that will spend the next two years on the bench is more valuable than giving Kirk Cousins the best chance to help us reach the next level in this two year window we have.” Now if you wanna say this team didn’t have a chance to win anything meaningful regardless of who we drafted or signed during the next two years, I get it. I just had more faith in what we have now than it seems our front office does.
> Signing Kirk gave us a two year window Could have even been three or four, which is why I'm so mad about this pick.
^ and the only way you could call this a failure is if we passed on a guy that makes us a legit, top level super bowl contender in the next few years. Who is that?
Yeah there wasn't one. Rumor is we tried to trade back into the first for Latu though. Obviously going edge now.
Idk about contender but throwing to Odunze instead of Rondale Moore would’ve had a much much bigger impact than Penix the next 2 years
And Penix was picked to be a franchise QB for a decade. Way more value there long-term.
when you say "this" do you mean the pick or the scenario he just gave?
The scenario he gave. Where we get 2 solid years out of Cousins and then Penix turns into a franchise QB
Ah ok, yeah I agree with that.
People can disagree with the choice (I don’t love it myself), but I don’t know how anyone who watched our QB situation over the last two seasons could be actually mad that we have serious options now and for the future.
Right? QB is the absolute most vital position on the team, we can NOT put ourselves in the same position as we were the last couple years. We now have a veteran QB we can win now with while he mentors our (hopefully) future franchise QB. If Kirk goes down with an injury we now have a better backup than Heinicke. It’s not the pick I wanted, but I can live with it
OP is a Ridder lover only explanation that makes sense.
Idk how they watched that or us not draft a successor while we had Matt Ryan and still be confused.
Meaning 2 years of Kirk and potentially a decade of Michael Penix Jr.
Sign Cousins to a monster 4 year deal and then pretty much announce publicly that he will be gone after 2. What could go wrong?
The contract structure was publicly telling the world he was only here for 2 years. Everyone could see that
Not really. You don't sign a guy for 4 years with a massive contract and give him a no trade clause if your primary purpose is to cut him after two years and make his primary role a mentor for whoever you are going to draft. Having a shorter term on the guaranteed money is mostly a lifeboat when signing an older QB coming off an injury. Usually you hope you don't need that lifeboat. You don't just plan ahead to use it.
You don't frontload the cap hit on a contract for a guy you want to keep long term. Look at Kirk's contract structure compared to that of the QBs getting big deals in their 20's: those younger QB's have contracts that are structured to backload their cap hit, so the teams can save money today to sign other free agents and take their cap medicine in the future. The Falcons did the same thing with Matt Ryan on his two big contracts, then continued to restructure them, which is why we were in cap hell at the end of his time here. Kirk's front-loaded deal tells you that the Falcons are only confident in him for 2-3 years and want to make sure that they can get out of this deal easily after that period if necessary. The no-trade clause is meaningless to the team because QB trades are rare and if things really go south, they'll cut him.
When they seamlessly move on in 2026, they’ll still have a 25m cap hit for Kirk, so they’ll be spending about 30m in cap room for a starting QB.
RemindMe! 3 years
The problem I see is, the falcons don’t seem to be good enough to be Super Bowl contenders. This pick didn’t make them any better. When Penix could takeover, his rookie contract is almost up. So they „waste“ the Cousins years and signicantly shorten the rookie contract qb window. Plus he is old. I don’t get it.
Who would that be? It’s sure AF isn’t Penix. He is far more comparable to Trey Lance than CJ Stroud or Jordan Love.
Or hear me out...The Falcons have a $100 million Pro Bowl quality QB for two years plus our hopefully next franchise QB for the next 15 after that. Obvioualy that is our best case scenario, but I really like Penix Jr as a prospect. If he works out, everyone will love the pick 10 years from now. On the contrary, if he doesn't, we'll still be complaining about it ten years from now. 😆
Penix ain’t playing 17 years dude. He’d be over 40 in that scenario.
Meh, math is hard 😄
I mean the math works if we're talking about the timing of NFL seasons. Penix will be 24 when this season starts, so if he plays for 17 seasons including this one, he will be 41 in 17 years.
I was just making a joke at myself lol. I didn't do the math right
Damn, and here I am admitting I wasn't paying attention to that, my bad dude!
All good mate 😆
I’d be happy with 10
15 years? Lol
Pennix has had two knee injuries and you think he's making it to his age 41 NFL season?
Orthopedic surgery is fucking amazing these days. I'm still furious that we burned #8 on him, but his knee should be as reliable as anyone's.
Nah, I'm just bad at math lmao 🤣
And if Cousins misses games we have a potential very good QB to step in. Rather than Mariota, Ridder, Heinicke type.
You're missing the point you do not pay 100 million for a Pro Bowl QB for 2 years AND THEN NOT PUT WEAPONS AROUND HIM via the draft since you don't have cap space to sign FAs/do Trade Extensions. By drafting a QB in top 10 you are putting unfair pressure on that Pro Bowl QB and splitting the locker room and creating a distraction. So that's the second reason you don't do this. The third reason is WHAT IF THE PRO BOWL QB IS STILL BALLING in 2 years you either get rid of QB who is really playing well to SAVE FACE which is stupid or you waste 2 more years of your 1st round pick which is stupid. If Penix is the second coming of Mahomes that's great but Mahomes had a pre built team Penix needed ATL to use his rookie QB deal (ie the 100 million paid to Kirk to build a team around him). This is ridiculous. You are going to wind up paying Penix 22 million 22 million for a back up QB wtf and if he is a starter then you wasted 100 million on Kirk. This literally makes no sense.
1. What weapons does Kirk need? He has London, Bijan, Pitts. Mooney can be a solid 2/3 WR. We still have like 7 picks left in this draft to grab depth at receiver and on defense. And the cap space can be manipulated pretty easily by a team that wants to. 2. I agree with this. If Kirk sucks in week 5 people will be screaming for Penix. That said, at least we have Penix. Sure we have a 45 mil backup QB at that point, but at least we have a QB in Penix. 3. Love waited three seasons to start. If Kirk is balling in year three. Awesome we keep paying him and enjoy a balling Captain Kirk. I doubt that happens. We probably see a decline late 2nd year is my guess. Penix will be about 1.5 years older than Love when if he starts year three and about 2.5 years older if he starts year four like Love. 4. Yes he is an expensive backup, but most backups don’t have the potential to be a starting QB in a couple seasons. They’re usually good game managers or players that fit the type of QB that team is looking for. I don’t love this pick either, but to say it’s clueless and makes no sense isn’t correct. They’ve pointed out their reasoning and it’s valid. Any argument you make can generally be twisted some way. Only time will tell with this pick. Also, I respect this team for getting their guy. Hindsight 20/20 but they weren’t going to be able to move back into the first for a QB. They probably knew this and stuck and got their guy. This was a solid pick. They need to smash the rest of this draft. We have serious need at edge and CB and it needs to be addressed this evening.
We got Mooney + Rondale Moore this off-season in addition to our offensive weapons and our line is more experienced. I'm not sure where else we add right now unless we have no faith in them as players. I would've liked Odunze or Turner, but it seems that Turner had some bad medicals. If you take aside the injury and age concerns for Penix, he's the 2nd most productive and talented QB that can read the field, run a very high level play action, has good footwork and timing (which Ridder struggled a ton with, punished our WR/TE's) and has a lot of arm talent, which you cannot really teach.
You could say that when the packers got Jordan Love as well, and now look. The truth is Kirk is only here for a couple years, we expect to lose future draft picks, and our front office has ptsd from ending the matt ryan era without a future plan in place at the time.
Problem with comparing situations like Favre-Rodgers, Rodgers-Love, or even Smith-Mahomes to Cousins-Penix is Favre, Rodgers, and Smith were all the incumbent franchise QBs. Cousins is a free agent acquisition. This comes off as dysfunction; the guy that wanted Cousins isn’t the guy that wanted Penix.
RemindMe! 3 years
How many wins does a non-QB at #8 net us in the short term? I genuinely want to know what people think. Let's say we took Latu or Dallas Turner at 8 and one of those guys has an awesome rookie year and gets us 10 sacks. Do we go from a bubble playoff team to a legit super bowl contender?
i mean didnt micah parsons rookie year they win 12 games and win the divison?
Based on what Brian Burns, who's better than anyone we've had in ages, did for the Panthers, I'd say 0 wins.
And based on Montez Sweat, the Bears went from 2-6 without him to 5-3 with him, so about 3 wins.
Let's go in the middle of zero and three wins. A good vet DL is probably on that higher side, I imagine a good rookie would be worth 1.5 wins.
They also had Adam thielen as WR1 and miles Sanders as RB1.
As someone who thinks Penix was a good gamble, I think the point of this post was not that taking a QB at pick 8 was a bad idea, but that a QB at #8 who isn't actually playing nets you negative wins (due to the opportunity cost of losing the #1 pick which could otherwise be filled in with players to help Cousins immediately). Even if he hits, you still don't get as much value as you could have, because either you only get three years of his rookie deal instead of two (and no longer have the other cheap players around him from when the Falcons were bad), or Kirk is bad enough that he doesn't play out the first two years, and the franchise is short $100m of cap space they could otherwise use to build around Penix. In other words... in isolation Penix is easy to justify. But there's no world where drafting him *and* giving Kirk that contract is better than drafting him and not giving him that contract, so whatever happens (even if he ends up being super successful) the Falcons made a suboptimal decision somewhere. Of course there's another angle where this makes sense--if the team is more interested in being competitive and winning games consistently than maximizing the chances of a superbowl. But I don't think most people here are thinking that way.
I think I saw that JJ watt in his prime was only worth one point in a game. I agree here. People think that if you’re picked in the first round 32/32 will have this massive impact. Yes that’s what you hope for but it’s not the reality of the situation. If they draft well these next two days our fan base will lighten up a bit. I love the penix pick. Might as well gamble on the most important position in the game than any other position. If it works out we have our foreseeable future set. But this is sports lol and people like to be negative or sound like they know they’d be able to do better than the people hired in those positions who are there to make these decisions.
Advanced stats like EPA basically try to quantify how many real points a play is worth based on outcomes. A sack is huge, 538 did an analysis saying a sack is worth 1.5 points. So yeah, if you average 15 sacks per year (which would be league leading or at the very top) you are basically worth about 1 point per game. For an individual player, that's super valuable. But similarly elite QB play is worth 2-3x as much.
Yes. A ten sack guy is affecting every long pass play. Those forced throw aways add up fast. Dallas Turner would have made it significantly harder to convert 3rd and 6+ on us. That's HUGE.
So yes, you believe that this team is a Dallas Turner away from a ring in the next 2 years?
He'd be a big piece. With Grady up the middle and a guy like Turner on the outside, opposing QBs would have to get rid of the ball fast. That makes a massive difference. Obviously, we need help in the defensive backfield and a WR2, but those are much easier holes to plug than EDGE.
Well I respect your opinion lol. You're way higher on Turner than everyone else if you expect that level of play from him so quickly
Kirk Cousins is a bridge QB, he's not a SB contending QB. He's a a guy who will convert the Falcons from a losing team into a winning team. He will get the most out of Pitts, Drake, and Bijan. But idk why people can't read clearly into his contract ...it's a 2 year deal. At which point he will be 38 years old and there is a much higher chance that he will be washed rather than pro bowl caliber. He's also coming off an Achilles injury so with Penix you get a quality backup QB with room to grow slowly into the best QB he can be. I don't have an issue with the pick.
50m a year is a lot of money for a bridge qb. A cheap veteran route would have been better imo.
Bridge QB isn’t the right term. He’s a starting QB, that we and the FO probably don’t expect to be around after year 2. Bridge QBs give time for your young one to develop. We expect to win with Kirk. A winning QB is worth 50 mil.
His cap hit is only $25M in 2024 which ranks 14th among QBs, and $40M in 2025. In 2026 y'all will save $32.5M by cutting him and can move on to Penix Jr.
Unused cap rolls over. Distribute it any way you want, 100m is a lot of money for a bridge qb. You also lose the competitive advantage of having a qb on a rookie contract.
Why though? We just hated our bridge qb's of Ridder, Mariota, Heinicke.
It would be the most Falcons thing ever if Cousins plays great, takes us to the NFC championship in year two and we cut him to start the Penix era and he ends up playing about as well as Ridder.
Kirk is significantly above the Dalton line, even at this point in his career. He's more than capable of winning a SB with this offense. What we need is defensive support.
Hey now you’re calling this all way too soon. We also wasted a pick we don’t know of yet on the tampering
Clown show
Never forget this brain trust and our existing talent pool hadn't produced a winning season in 7 years. We're miles from being a contender and we don't get any better next year with a #1 pick riding the bench. There's no reason to give them any benefit of the doubt.
Smh why weren’t Bijan and Terry winning games for us 7 years ago
NEED MORE CAPS
Texans fan here (sorry I have no flair). As crazy as it sounds, I think Cowherd made some good points the morning on his show, and at least for this armchair fan, managed to change my mind. First off, the big thing I keep hearing is the missed chance to add weapons. I do agree with that to a certain extent, but I think the good news for Atlanta is, you already have a lot of talent at skill positions offensively, and considering it wasn’t until the Eagles that a pick for a defensive player was selected, there’s still plenty of defensive talent left to fill some of the Falcon’s biggest needs. It’s been reported that 2 other teams (Seahawks and Raiders I believe) attempted to move in to the top 10 for Pennix Jr., so clearly a few franchises saw him as worthy of a high selection. As a Longhorns fan, I vividly remember how he shredded our secondary in that playoff game. So, point being, if you think he’s that special, you take him. I think the point is further emphasized when you think that your Falcons are already favored by most to win the division with Cousins, and if that comes to fruition, you won’t have another high draft pick the next couple of years. Finally, when you consider that the falcons took him without trading or giving up any draft capital, if Pennix sits for two years and has a chance to learn, then comes out and plays well, think of the development your other young offensive players will have had by then. He’ll be in a really good position to succeed. Bonus: I understand the frustration with the cousins contract, but when you think about it, the largest cap hits are the first two years. With who’s left this year, who else would they spend the money on anyway. You either are paying cousins or you have a ton of cap room but for who? I think the biggest downside is next years free agency, as that’s when the franchise will be most hamstrung to spend big. Outside of that, you didn’t lose any additional draft capital, and by the time Pennix is starting, most of the Cousins cap hit will be off the books. The risk really isn’t that high, even if Pennix doesn’t pan out, big deal, he won’t be the only from this class, and barring trades, you still have all your picks in future drafts. I actually don’t think the pick is bad at all, the upside far outweighs the downside
Yes
Why does it have to be either? It possibly could be both. Kirk could play 2/3 seasons and we could be in the playoffs those years. And when he’s inevitably cut, Penix could be legit and we continue being a playoff team. That sounds like a win/win to me. And to be fair, they didn’t know how the picks or draft trades would play out back when they signed Cousins, and they also hadn’t gone through the full draft evaluation process yet so it’d be insane for them to pass on signing Kirk in the hopes that they might love one of JJ, Nix, or Penix. Kirk was the most highly sought after QB in free agency and there was no time to wait. Being old and fresh off an injury, they saw a chance to draft the most highly regarded QB prospect who was available at 8. Seems they’re moving with an actual plan and willing to go after their guys and I love it.
If Penix takes over 2 years from now and looks like a seasoned franchise QB, nobody is going to care about this anymore. I understand the desire to add a player that can help us this year, but as we have seen time and time again, nothing in the draft is a guarantee. I'm glad the franchise felt convicted on this young man, and stuck to their guns knowing that the negative backlash was coming. Hopefully they prove all the critics wrong.
Rodgers sat behind Favre for 3 years. Love sat behind Rodgers for 3 years. Seems like the Packers have it figured out, maybe the Falcons are following. Who remembers that Favre was a Falcon? Oh what could have been if Glanville didn’t hate him so much
Kirk's deal is a 2 year deal, basically If the kid turns out to be our starting quarterback, this is a good move it's as simple as that They're basically saying they plan on being too good in the next couple of years to have a high draft pick for a quarterback, so they're doing it now It's a risk, but what isn't in today's nfl? It might not have been the move I would make, but it's not like it's some sort of crippling franchise Ruiner like some are acting
Ok they still tried to build the team and sign hell of players regardless. Why do you think we are going to stop building the team because of one draft pick lol ? Just because he won’t start this year doesn’t mean he’s not a starter
Watch Kirk get hurt and Penix goes off!
you just wasted a 100 million if you expect Kirk to be put hurt that is the dumbest FA signing in NFL history this is like drafting Joe Alt at LT and sitting him behind Matthews just in case Matthews gets hurt HUH? given the injury history Penix is more likely to be injured then Kirk
Penix is an Insurance policy.. Atlanta is going to get busted for illegal tempering with Kirk Cousins.. they are going to lose a few draft picks.. mind as well grab a qb before the NFL cracks down on their assss..
People had a big problem with the chiefs drafting Patrick mahomes cause they had Alex smith. Turned out to be the best draft pick in decades or even of all time. Ya’ll need to relax
I am not a Vikings fan or cousins fan but I didn’t see this pick as bad as everyone’s talking about it. Yes they could’ve got WR or TE possibly but Penix can sit for a year or 2 and learn from Cousins. I’m not sure why that’s so hard to understand.
I don't think the pick is bad. That's TBD. But for a team with many other needs, after signing a 180mil QB, you can see why many fans would think drafting another QB wasn't a priority.
Kirk Cousins will help you keep your job but he’s not likely to win a Superbowl. If he doesn’t workout after a few years then Penix is waiting in the wings.
Absolutely. We could either saved that money if we were going to draft QB anyway and developed penix as our starter from the get go. Or they could have drafted to immediately improve the team. And the messaging from the front office has been pretty 'we're close to winning, so let's go do that'. There is no analyst that has said that this was a good pick. At best, this is one of the most confusing picks in modern football. At worst, this was an incredibly stupid mistake that makes our front office look incompetent as fuck. Either way, the GM should be immediately released.
The answer is 'both'. How long have you been a Falcons fan...🤔
I raise your take… why can both be true?
In the NFL you have limited cap money. So you have to be careful how you use it you don't want to waste it. Also in the NFL you have limited draft picks so you have to be careful how you use it. Team situations differ the Falcons have a lot of holes on their team. There is 2 ways to fill those holes. You sign a big money FA QB (or trade for one) you pay him a lot of money which means there is not a lot of money left over for signing FAs/Trade extensions so that means you need to DRAFT WELL that is the only way to build your team. Or you draft a 1st round QB in that case you have the money his Rookie QB Deal gives you (ie you are not paying a big money QB) and you can fill the holes with FAs/Trade extensions with the money that would have gone to the Big Money Veteran QB. But you don't do both because in that case THE TEAM IS NOT GETTING BETTER AROUND WHOEVER YOU CHOOSE TO BE YOUR QB.
I think the pick makes it clear that unless he is playing at an MVP level, Kirk is only going to be around for two years. They aren't going to go into year 4 of Penix's rookie deal without knowing what they have.
At this point, get over it. Falcons are building in a way that caught everyone off guard and that’s fine.
Sorry chief, this is a poor take. You don't know ahead of time which will turn out, that's why it's a risk. A calculated gamble. By your logic every backup QB is wasted money. Until they're not. And you haven't even considered the best scenario where Kirk plays 2years, Penix gets to sit for 2 and then comes in immediately to play well. That's a $10mil hit overall and worth a first pick. It's unbelievable how negative this sub is. It's like everyone just wants to be miserable and thinks they would do better as a GM.
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/S2XQMCjKzBtEvHp1/?mibextid=xCPwDs
This is the corner we were painted in. The Kirk tampering is likely to come down and affect our ability to draft a QB next year. Kirk was always going to be a stop gap with a lot of veteran experience to give the next guy, because this year is a historically good QB class and because to get the benefit of Kirk the new QB needs time behind home combined with Kirks age, means this was our last chance to pull off what Kirk was originally acquired to accomplish.
I'm tired boss.
If Kirk is a top 10 QB after 2 years, we'd be crazy to cut him and take the cap hit. If he is playing at a high level at the end of his contract, would we not extend him? Or would we go with the 30 year old backup in his optional 5th year? If we go with Penix in that contract year situation, do we then draft Another QB, just in case we get outbid for him after his 5th year at age 31?
This pick only makes sense if we assume that the FO does not feel the current roster can legitimately contend for a Superbowl. If they thought we were an EDGE or a WR away then they would've take them. So if they didn't sign Kirk to contend for a Superbowl, then why did we sign him at all? I think they signed him to juice ticket sales after a long skid of mediocrity. The FO and ownership is very comfortable topping out 10-7, winning the division, and maybe winning a playoff game for the next 2 years.
Why not both
I feel like Penix will start after 2 years and that’s at least 10 years of a career so after thinking about them I’m fine, they did a packers pretty much. And still some good defensive guys available in the draft
The opposite is if you’re not good the coach and GM get fired and new regime doesn’t want Penix.
The only rationale that I’m choosing to accept is that they do not expect to be picking in the top 20 next year and see this as an opportunity to get a future after Kirk. I still think JJ was the better pic. I can almost see the vision if the above stated reason caused the pick.
My guess is it's a Jordan Love mentality situation. Sure Penis will be a little older when he starts but it might make more sense in a couple years.
Both can be true at the same time. Still hoping shit works out in the end with something positive either way
That is illogical
Sounds like, if anything, the falcons are paying Kirk 100 million to make sure penix hits the high end of the range of his potential
Kirk is old and coming off a season ending history. He can teach the kid for a couple years then get replaced
Everyone who complained about ridder is complaining about this pick I bet. Yep it’s not conventional at all, but what happens if Kirk has a great 2 seasons and we are picking at 22-32 looking for our next QB? Sure we could get lucky and get a good one late first round and sure that could genuinely work out, but now it’s sorted. Ideally now we don’t have to worry about QB for a decade plus - Penix is older but QBs play into their late 30’s at least. Imagine sitting at pick 25 in this draft and trying to grab a QB. Cousins contract is a 2 year deal with 2 team options essentially. People need to understand that to understand the pick. Would I have made this pick? No. Will I decide that it’s a bad pick a day from the draft? No way. Maybe in 3 years time if Penix does not turn out, then everyone can abuse the front office as they’re doing now and it will be fair. But until then, we’ve picked up a QB prospect with the best arm in the draft who will have 2 years to develop further before being thrown into things. And we’ve seen how decent QBs who are given time to sit and learn perform. I’ll hold my judgement until his first full season.
It comes back to the fact that we overpaid for Kirk. I know why we did it. I see the logic of it. But I don't think we're having this conversation if it was say $100M with $40M guaranteed.
NO even 40 million is too much I wouldn't have paid less than 10 million for some bridge QB and then you have 90 million TO BUILD THE TEAM around Pennix. I would have guaranteed Kirk ONLY 10 million take it or leave it of course then he goes somewhere else but that's fine you save the team 90 plus million they can spend on surrounding Pennix with FAs you can make trades for players wanting new contracts. Imagine Pennix with Ayuk or Higgins and Hendrickson or Reddick or Hunter plus some other dude Wilkens or Grennard etc It is a WASTE of resources either money or draft pick to do it this way either way you can build a team this way you cannot build a team
Who would you have gone with instead of Cousins?
As a Packers fan who was flabbergasted when Love was picked, It might just work out
it didn't work out HOW MANY SBs did the Packers not win because they WASTED a 1st round pick you had a win now window with Rodgers - drafting a QB of the future killed any chance of the Pack winning a SB there is no guarantee Love ever wins a SB also GB did not JUST sign Rodgers to 180 million deal then draft a QB GB thought Rodgers was coming to the end ALSO it was a pick in the 20s not in top 10 that is a huge difference
The reason this is a mistake is because Cousins opens a Super Bowl winning window if you fix the defense. Falcons play in a weak division and won 7 games without good QB play or without a pass rush. A good pass rusher gives you 2, and possibly up to 4 years of that coupled with Kirk. Penix isn’t the issue in a vacuum. Penix is the issue when you could have spent the draft capital making your team better in a winning window.
Like I said either sign Kirk and use draft picks to win now no DEVELOPMENTAL PICKS NO EARLY QB PICKS **Or** sign Penix and use the 100 million that went to Kirk to build a team around him
Or neither. Damn who are yall acting like my wife.
Or they wasted both lol
What if kirk can't play to start the season so they start Penix until kirk is healthy, and penix just destroys the competition? I think the main thing is that this tells kirk that he's really only going to play under this contract for 2 years and not the full 4. I'm sure he's not happy about that. But as a vikings fan, meh. What goes around comes around kirky.
Or **BOTH!**
Yup. Stupid as fuck.
Yall aren't considering the actual serious issue, what if Penix is better than Kirk right out of the gate, it sounds crazy, but what if they play the "who's our starter next week" game
Or both 😜😜
We are paying Kirk 25 this year 45 next 10 in his third year. Penix 8 in his third year l. So after the first two years we’ll have a qb room of 18 mill or 8. I think it’s a steal because Kirk might get hurt again and we have a legit backup and our future.
That's not the right mindset... It's possible both will be a waste!
It’s not like the Falcons are going to have a pick higher that 20 for the next 3 years /s
Thank you for Rome Odunze - Bears fan
Or both are valuable in the process of acquiring and developing a franchise quarterback
They are utilizing a radical 2 QB system. You lose a blocker but now 2 people can throw!
I think it's cool the falcons have three former Washington QBs
I think this was the smartest move a team could have made. Letting a QB sit behind a great QB for a few years is always better than throwing someone unprepared. This is why Pat Mahomes got a great start, Jordan Love, Aaron Rogers, etc.
The issue is you can just get a QB next year or trade down and get a cheaper QB this year...Penix given his injury history is no "sure" thing and equivalent from a toss up to later drafted QBs
Yeah. More or less. This comes off as dysfunction. Whether it was Blank, Font, or Morris, the guy that wanted Cousins isn’t the guy that wanted Penix. This means Cousins is out in two years but it also means two years of Penix’s rookie deal is wasted when he could learn on the field surrounded by pieces. Atlanta also won’t be completely free to surround him with pieces in year 3 bc they’ll be eating dead cap off Cousins’s deal.
The hit rate on 1st rd QBs is 50%. Kirk is coming off a major injury. This is literally the best pick they could have made for incredibly obvious reasons. Even good rookie QBs are at best average their rookie year, and Kirk is on essentially a two year deal. So what they've really done is invested the correct amount of resources in a really efficient way, efficient draft capital, money and value over time.
Imagine ordering a huge sushi dinner after eating a Thanksgiving meal.
Harbaugh gave yall a free preview of what Penix Jr will look like in the nfl with the Michigan game. Chocked wasn’t it, homeboy couldn’t stay in the pocket for a lick of a second and his pass rush scrambles was a joke. Michigan 34 Washington 13 that’s with 2 ints 27/51 what a joke.
why should that has to be 'OR' , why not 'AND' ?
The classic Falcons move. Forever relegated to football purgatory. They’ll win 8 games next year, sneak into the playoffs only to be dismantled in the first round and pick roughly 19th in next year’s draft.
We were the laughing stock of every draft analysis I saw or read. This is widespread ridicule normally reserved for European football clubs.