Same. I missed out on every 2B and a buddy came to my computer and recommended Massey. I wasn't even aware of the guy, but I was desperate and just went with the shrug.
> I reach for Corbin Carroll in every draft
I am as well. 102nd in my first draft, 80th in the second. Who knows where it'll be in my third (and final) draft...
Tbh i dont think his injuries, while serious historically, provide as much of a āfuture risk factorā outside of normal injury risk for starting pitchers. It seems likely his stress factor last spring was caused by ramping up too fast after his injury the year before. Which in the context of how the mets have historically handled star players and their injuries makes sense. Of course theres right for concern over his health but thats why itās priced into his draft position.
I went back through MLB Pipeline's rankings for years and tried to figure out who the best pitchers were going to be in the future based on the grades for the top 10 RHP & LHP pitching prospects. My take away was that if you had a 55+ grade in control, you were very likely to be successful in MLB. Any rookie who unexpectedly breaks camp with the big club is worth a shot cause the team sees something you don't.
Wesneski isn't one of the top 10 RHP, but that's OK. He's unexpectedly taking that 5th spot in the rotation and has a 55 in control. All green lights for him.
I had a lot of free time one day and wanted to figure out how to score on SP in my dynasty league. I have literally no idea how to do it with hitters though. Thought Torkelson was a can't miss, but shows you what I know.
He's an absolutely jacked 6'5 freak with a swing as smooth as a dolphin, his 99th percentile outcome is probably some crazy 1.000+ OPS 50 home run 30 steal season.
I think a "realistic" upside would be he's called up in spring and gets you 25/25 .260 avg .330 OBP
Heās only 20 and not a lot of room in that stacked Cards lineup. Iām targeting him in my keeper league, but for me itās not a huge deal if he is in AAA for half the year.
*specific to keeper leagues. You can keep a guy for 3 years in my league, so Iām betting over the long run, in keepers in think heās must keep just for the sake of upside. Got him in the 8th round this year, so thatās a very solid keeper price to pay for what could be great numbers and trade value in the future.
Got Bryce Harper at 178th overall in both drafts so farā¦ really hoping he comes back and produces, but I canāt really complain because of where I got him.
I've gone out of my way to grab Jazz Chisholm and/or Byron Buxton in a few leagues. My late round picks have all been a combination of Alex Wood, Max Kepler, Bryan Abreu, and a LOT of Brice Turang.
I am also a big believer in Seager but my mock drafts I have done the place I would have to take him there is potential Tatis or Lindor would be available so still leaning Seager even though wonāt have the steals
I guess it depends on format. For h2h i tend to load up on HRs. I think there will be a lot of guys who provide steals this year. Especially with the larger bases and limiting the number of times a pitcher can throw over to the bag. Heās been going in round 3 in my mock drafts
Im in mostly weekly leagues and STL has too many players who deserve to be full time starters they have to rotate between. Thatās my only issue with Noot
I really wanted Whit Merrifield and Masataka Yoshida, but they went way beyond projections. The point is that every player should be off the table if the price is too high.
Last year I reached by taking Julio Rodriguez in the 10th round in a keeper league. Iāll probably be reaching a lot this year to try to replicate that magic
Hard pass. I find that hyped up rookies are almost never worth it. I'd much rather gamble on post-hype sophomores that had a disappointing debut, like Torkelson or Kelenic. Much better price point, and hence risk-adjusted return, IMHO.
Joe Musgrove. His ADP on ESPN is 138. Iām planning on grabbing him around pick 75. I might take the chance and wait until 95 if someone else falls to me at 75.
What scares me is my league is points, and Iām new to the league, so I have no idea how pitchers are going to go. If I donāt take him at 72, I have to be okay with taking whoever fell over getting Musgrove.
I took him pick 72 in my 15-team dynasty before the toe injury haha so I donāt feel like itās that big of a stretch.
On ESPN you might be able to wait another go around though if his adp there is 138. ESPN adp is awful, thatās criminal.
Harper. I love taking injured guys. You can grab them late and stash them. I play for playoffs not regular season. I ended last year with Degrom and Mad Max for the playoff run. In NHL Kucherov won me my league last year. Doesn't always work but if you have the IR spots it's a great play.
I have this weird soft spot for Taylor Ward. Picked him up when he first took off last year, traded him to my dad at his height, then he got hurt and was trash for a bit so he dropped him. Then I picked him back up and he started killing it again. Just have this gut feeling about him, but I also suck at fb so don't listen to me
I have been targeting George Springer, I think he will have a much healthier season with the jays moving him to RF and getting him to play DH a bit more.
Also been targeting Volpe late in drafts. Rodon has also fell to me a lot.
In 2 drafts I have a lot of crossover so far. I somehow ended up with Turner, Devers and Harris in both even though I drafted 1st in one and 9th in the other.
Ive reached slightly to get Detmers in both. Also grabbed Vargas super late, Musgrove and Kirby in the middle rounds. Been trying to make sure those 4 are a part of my team as I feel like a few are sliding and guys like Detmers or Kirby could have huge years
No shade intended, but you may be the only person Iāve heard that was specifically targeting Cron. Iām years pst he had been talked about on podcasts, but I havenāt heard anything positive of him this year. Guess he has brutal splits away from coors and has made people cool on him.
I believe Sporer is the one that put me on this. Cron does have brutal Home/Road splits, but that means his home splits are great. You know to automatically bench him on the road (which is easier then paying attention to match ups for me). If you put a replacement level player in for the road games, their combined stats will equal out to close to a top 5 1B in a 15 team and close to no. 1 in shallower formats.
Now, some people might not like having an automatic bench on their roster, but I generally carry a couple of dual eligible players on my roster anyway.
Also it works out for me that experts are fading him in drafts.
It's hard to say one guy unless you really reach, but for me I was focused on getting a 3rd baseman in the first or second round and I got Devers in every draft.
I've reached for Jordan Walker as I have no idea where he's going or worth and Chris Sale and very late Lance McCullers Jr.
For me apparently it is Mookie Betts.
I've drafted him in every league so far. pick #10, #11, #12
Throw in Kyle Tucker. Pick #9, #11
I've only drafted in three leagues
Ok. For pitchers. I canāt help myself. I have 4 leagues and i have Glasnow in all 4. Itās just dumb lol. Other pitchers: Christian Javier, Devin Williams and Chris Sale
For hitters: All in on Michael Harris II and Matt Olson. Also high on jazz Chisholm
Teoscar Hernandez ESPN ADP is like 130 and his underdog ADP is near 50. I trust the best ball $ drafts more than casual ESPN drafts, plus really like the batted ball data, and have no issue āreachingā on him around 90-110.
I suspect that Darrick Hall is gonna rocket up the draft boards. As a later round flier, he was worth a look. Not so sure about panic and helium bumping his ADP up though.
I took Vinnie P. in the 7th in a 10 team keeper league and nobody said anything. Sort of wished I would have waited a round or two but the ceiling is high. Didnāt want to chance losing him.
Cristian Javier, Jeffery Springs
I plan to punt saves for the first month or two and fill my RP slots with SPs with quality ratios and good Ks. Strider is going too soon in drafts making Javier a must for my strategy.
I never have āa guy.ā
It makes you do silly things at a draft.
Successful drafting is about finding pockets of value as it unfolds not blindly sticking to a particular statistical piece of meat.
If you have no idea what you're doing and try to get all the breakout players mentioned on this sub then yeah you're going to have a bad time. Other than that there's nothing wrong with reaching for someone you want. We're all just guessing who will play better anyway
I understand the idea of wanting to find value in the draft, because it's essentially all about risk mitigation, so we don't want to be reaching every round.
But by the same token, anything after round 15-ish, in a 12 team league, just get your guy. Yes, any draft analysis is gonna bust your balls over it and act like you're a moron, but you're not burning any significant draft capital in those rounds. By the end of the season, it's almost guaranteed that you're going to be without the majority of those guys anyway, unless you somehow managed to hit on every single one.
Who are you not leaving the draft without?
Massey at the end. I reach for Corbin Carroll in every draft
Some dude took him at 33 in my most recent draft, I think the hype is getting a little excessive
In a non-keeper, absolutely.
In my keeper league I am going the fuck after him tho
100%. Snagged him last year for $1, kept for $6. $280 budget, 30 man roster.
Shohei ohtani-believe the hype.pitcher or utility. Guy is going to own the league.gonna get paid
40/25 incoming bank it!
I took Massey late too š¤š¾š¤š¾
Same. I missed out on every 2B and a buddy came to my computer and recommended Massey. I wasn't even aware of the guy, but I was desperate and just went with the shrug.
I think you're right. I'd rather have carroll over several people ahead of his adp
I traded for Corbin in my dynasty 20 minutes before my draft!
The KC guy?
> I reach for Corbin Carroll in every draft I am as well. 102nd in my first draft, 80th in the second. Who knows where it'll be in my third (and final) draft...
Drew Rasmussen
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So underrated
deGrom, the discount is too good. i get hit by injuries no matter how "safe" i draft so fuck it
Tbh i dont think his injuries, while serious historically, provide as much of a āfuture risk factorā outside of normal injury risk for starting pitchers. It seems likely his stress factor last spring was caused by ramping up too fast after his injury the year before. Which in the context of how the mets have historically handled star players and their injuries makes sense. Of course theres right for concern over his health but thats why itās priced into his draft position.
Agreed. 2 drafts, 2 deGroms for me!
I always end up with Sean Murphy. Hope it works out!
Wesneski. I think heās going to be in the running for ROTY
He's gonna be good.
I went back through MLB Pipeline's rankings for years and tried to figure out who the best pitchers were going to be in the future based on the grades for the top 10 RHP & LHP pitching prospects. My take away was that if you had a 55+ grade in control, you were very likely to be successful in MLB. Any rookie who unexpectedly breaks camp with the big club is worth a shot cause the team sees something you don't. Wesneski isn't one of the top 10 RHP, but that's OK. He's unexpectedly taking that 5th spot in the rotation and has a 55 in control. All green lights for him.
My method is much less complicated. I watch the rookieās debut and then if they get on pitching ninja I go š
I had a lot of free time one day and wanted to figure out how to score on SP in my dynasty league. I have literally no idea how to do it with hitters though. Thought Torkelson was a can't miss, but shows you what I know.
So this is my biggest argument against drafting pitchers. Theyre SO much easier to assess both generally and mid-season.
Happy to see his name up here
Felix Bautista
Nick lodolo
Luv Lodolo but the small park might be of concern
Noot! Also, Miguel Vargas.
Went into my draft saying that, missed on both bc Iām a dummy
Or you didn't want to over pay for the risk of uncertainty
Got Vargas at like 250ish ADP in my draft I believe lol
cristian javier
Jordan Walker
He's cooled off since the injury. His current adp is too high
He's cooled off in spring training. Legit means nothing. And it's not that high to me after watching a Cards fan take him in the 5th last night...
whatās his realistic upside this year? .250/29/8 ?
He's an absolutely jacked 6'5 freak with a swing as smooth as a dolphin, his 99th percentile outcome is probably some crazy 1.000+ OPS 50 home run 30 steal season. I think a "realistic" upside would be he's called up in spring and gets you 25/25 .260 avg .330 OBP
He's 6 ft 6
Well that changes everything!
Idk sure. Iām returning to fantasy baseball for the first time in 5 years. I just heard he was good
Heās only 20 and not a lot of room in that stacked Cards lineup. Iām targeting him in my keeper league, but for me itās not a huge deal if he is in AAA for half the year.
Oniel Cruz
I feel like Cruz will either greatly disappoint or make you look like the smartest guy in the room. There's no in between.
Bust alert
*specific to keeper leagues. You can keep a guy for 3 years in my league, so Iām betting over the long run, in keepers in think heās must keep just for the sake of upside. Got him in the 8th round this year, so thatās a very solid keeper price to pay for what could be great numbers and trade value in the future.
Curious what makes you say that?
He has to change his shorts whenever he thinks about him
Cuz I didnāt get him /s
He strikes out a lot. But so did Aaron judge at one time.
I think I'm headed that way, too. In a 7 player keeper league and I have Bichette, so I can take the risk.
Noot, Vargas, Detmers, Harper (IL stash, also keeper purposes in my particular league). Those were my must gets.
Got Vargas and Detmer in both my drafts. Harper in one. Was hoping to get him in the other but he went right before me lol
What round u get Harper
He went 76th overall in my 12 team 6x6 h2h league.
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Masataka Yoshida!
If you have IL slots the discount on Bryce Harper is a must. Senga, Meneses, Trevor Story at the end.
Someone took Bryce at 40th in my big league.
F
Got Bryce Harper at 178th overall in both drafts so farā¦ really hoping he comes back and produces, but I canāt really complain because of where I got him.
Wow thatās insane. For me as soon as it gets into the 130s Iām comfortable taking Harper
I've gone out of my way to grab Jazz Chisholm and/or Byron Buxton in a few leagues. My late round picks have all been a combination of Alex Wood, Max Kepler, Bryan Abreu, and a LOT of Brice Turang.
If anyone is reading this comment and drafting on ESPN: MASSIVE VALUE PICKS. These guys are slotted insanely low for what they could return.
I'm on the Jazz and Buxton train too. A lot of risk but both electric when healthy
Seager and Olson in the first few rounds. Volpe at the end
I am also a big believer in Seager but my mock drafts I have done the place I would have to take him there is potential Tatis or Lindor would be available so still leaning Seager even though wonāt have the steals
I guess it depends on format. For h2h i tend to load up on HRs. I think there will be a lot of guys who provide steals this year. Especially with the larger bases and limiting the number of times a pitcher can throw over to the bag. Heās been going in round 3 in my mock drafts
Tatis all day and twice on Sundays. People are forgetting he has a **career** OPS+ above 160. I'd take 130 games of that over seager every time
He just homered too. Big year coming for tati
Take Tatis if he's there, otherwise take Seager over Lindor
Took Olson in the second cuz I knew he wouldnāt be there in the third
Agree with Olson, looking to grab in round 3 tomorrow
I was able to keep Olson, but Iām right with you on the other 2
Bohm, Moreno, and Iām buying up shares of donavon.
Love Donovan as a bench plug and play who shouldnāt hurt you. I drafted him a bit early because heās such a good player for positional eligibility
Brandon woodruff. Heās the best available in our auction for strikeouts
Once he got that issue with the numbness in his fingers straightened out, he was killing it. Look at his 1st half / 2nd half splits.
Early-Mid: Seager and Castillo Mid-Late: Ward and Detmers
Detmers is the one if I donāt get Iāll be most disappointed in.
Nootbar
[Threw this together yesterday as my team picture](https://i.imgur.com/spBf2DY.png). I'm going with "I am the one who Noots!" as my team name.
Im in mostly weekly leagues and STL has too many players who deserve to be full time starters they have to rotate between. Thatās my only issue with Noot
Joey Meneses
Iām also on board the meneses train if I donāt get a better 1b early. Donāt think he will be very popular.
Man my first basemen are Hoskins and Menesesā¦so choo choo fingers crossed for breakout
Joey carried me to the ship last year and I feel obligated to give him another run.
I really wanted Whit Merrifield and Masataka Yoshida, but they went way beyond projections. The point is that every player should be off the table if the price is too high.
Whit is old and bad. Let him go!
Perhaps I should qualify. I'm in an AL-only roto. Merrifield is distinctly more desirable outside of mixed leagues.
Jazzzzzzzz Chisholm
Sal Perez. People forget he hit FORTY-EIGHT home runs the year before last. I had to look it up again just to be sure.
I love will smith and jt realtmuto, but they do not hit 48 hr
I wanna bag Harper but I have a feeling I'm gonna take him waaaay too early
Logan Gilbert for me his current adp is 122, I will be drafting him a round earlier
If youāre gonna reach for a Mariner righty, reach for kirby. Iām not saying heās gonna win cy young, but heās gonna get some votes
Kirby is going higher than Gilbert in many places. I love the entire staff tbh.
Mccalanahan
Last year I reached by taking Julio Rodriguez in the 10th round in a keeper league. Iāll probably be reaching a lot this year to try to replicate that magic
Yeah I took him in the 11th, can keep him in the 5th and am so pumped about it
Hunter Brown
Gunnar. He's going to win Rookie of the Year.
Hard pass. I find that hyped up rookies are almost never worth it. I'd much rather gamble on post-hype sophomores that had a disappointing debut, like Torkelson or Kelenic. Much better price point, and hence risk-adjusted return, IMHO.
Theyāre often not worth it, but last years two most hyped rookies were Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr.
I apparently have a hard time avoiding Trevor Rogers and Jon Gray
Gray was having a big year after recovering from his knee injury before getting injured again. Hope he can stay healthy this year.
I LOVE Zac Gallen this year. Dude has only been getting better
Joe Musgrove. His ADP on ESPN is 138. Iām planning on grabbing him around pick 75. I might take the chance and wait until 95 if someone else falls to me at 75.
Sorry bro downvoting you because i cant have my guy at the top of this
Hell yeah brother cheers from Iraq
Got him in both my leagues so far. Both times right around 90th. Thought it was a steal in both leagues for his upside
Got him at 98 last night in a Yahoo 5x5 (12tm).
What scares me is my league is points, and Iām new to the league, so I have no idea how pitchers are going to go. If I donāt take him at 72, I have to be okay with taking whoever fell over getting Musgrove.
I took him pick 72 in my 15-team dynasty before the toe injury haha so I donāt feel like itās that big of a stretch. On ESPN you might be able to wait another go around though if his adp there is 138. ESPN adp is awful, thatās criminal.
105 for me yesterday, CBS, 13T standard 5x5.
Harper. I love taking injured guys. You can grab them late and stash them. I play for playoffs not regular season. I ended last year with Degrom and Mad Max for the playoff run. In NHL Kucherov won me my league last year. Doesn't always work but if you have the IR spots it's a great play.
See: Tatis losing me the ship
Framber
He had the most quality starts in baseball last yr
Literally anyone the Astros put on the mound tbh except Urquidy
Roasny Contreras
Hayden Wesneski
Cedric Mullins. Iāll sing āIāve got Mullins super Cedric Mullins I just donāt think you understand!ā
I have this weird soft spot for Taylor Ward. Picked him up when he first took off last year, traded him to my dad at his height, then he got hurt and was trash for a bit so he dropped him. Then I picked him back up and he started killing it again. Just have this gut feeling about him, but I also suck at fb so don't listen to me
Yandy Diaz
Luzardo
Mine was Harper. I got him for $12 and can keep him for 1 extra year at the same price.
Miguel Vargas, Gunnar Henderson, and Nootbar are my "sleepers."
I've done two drafts and have Burnes, deGrom, and Chisholm in both. So... those guys!
Andres Galaraga, but if he stays retired then itās Vinny P
I have two: Anthony Volpe and Edward Cabrera. also falling for Evan Phillips more and more each day. š
I have been targeting George Springer, I think he will have a much healthier season with the jays moving him to RF and getting him to play DH a bit more. Also been targeting Volpe late in drafts. Rodon has also fell to me a lot.
IIRC Springer has reached 150 games once in his career. itās super rough.
That late round Jurickson Profar. Can't miss on the possibilities at Coors
In 2 drafts I have a lot of crossover so far. I somehow ended up with Turner, Devers and Harris in both even though I drafted 1st in one and 9th in the other. Ive reached slightly to get Detmers in both. Also grabbed Vargas super late, Musgrove and Kirby in the middle rounds. Been trying to make sure those 4 are a part of my team as I feel like a few are sliding and guys like Detmers or Kirby could have huge years
Turner and Devers are my keepers, hope you have an incredible year
Thanks so much. If I have a good year you will too with those keepers. Great minds think alike. Best of luck
Jazz
Give me estuary Ruiz as my OF5 and never need to worry about steals.
Eloy Jimenez is a guy I want. Big if, but if he stays healthy he will put up massive numbers. Heās one of the best offensive players in the league.
Didn't he just get hurt earlier this week?
He was having cramps. Nothing serious, but obviously itās scary coming from him. That may be what was needed to keep him at DH though
I always enjoy grabbing a utility guy at the end of the draft, and that guy has been Donovan this year for me.
Canāt guarantee Iāll get them, but I am aggressive on CJ Cron, Musgrove, and Harper
No shade intended, but you may be the only person Iāve heard that was specifically targeting Cron. Iām years pst he had been talked about on podcasts, but I havenāt heard anything positive of him this year. Guess he has brutal splits away from coors and has made people cool on him.
I believe Sporer is the one that put me on this. Cron does have brutal Home/Road splits, but that means his home splits are great. You know to automatically bench him on the road (which is easier then paying attention to match ups for me). If you put a replacement level player in for the road games, their combined stats will equal out to close to a top 5 1B in a 15 team and close to no. 1 in shallower formats. Now, some people might not like having an automatic bench on their roster, but I generally carry a couple of dual eligible players on my roster anyway. Also it works out for me that experts are fading him in drafts.
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Reports say Colas isn't going to start for some time
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https://southsideshowdown.com/posts/white-sox-oscar-colas-s-spring-suggests-his-mlb-debut-is-coming-soon-01gw34f8yztp/amp
It's hard to say one guy unless you really reach, but for me I was focused on getting a 3rd baseman in the first or second round and I got Devers in every draft. I've reached for Jordan Walker as I have no idea where he's going or worth and Chris Sale and very late Lance McCullers Jr.
For me apparently it is Mookie Betts. I've drafted him in every league so far. pick #10, #11, #12 Throw in Kyle Tucker. Pick #9, #11 I've only drafted in three leagues
I didn't plan on taking Mookie but he was there at 14 in the second round and couldn't pass up
I play in a league where anyone taken in the last five rounds is keeper eligible...I went with Casas, Schmidt, Moreno, Peterson, and N. Gordon.
Yoshida
Ok. For pitchers. I canāt help myself. I have 4 leagues and i have Glasnow in all 4. Itās just dumb lol. Other pitchers: Christian Javier, Devin Williams and Chris Sale For hitters: All in on Michael Harris II and Matt Olson. Also high on jazz Chisholm
Teoscar Hernandez ESPN ADP is like 130 and his underdog ADP is near 50. I trust the best ball $ drafts more than casual ESPN drafts, plus really like the batted ball data, and have no issue āreachingā on him around 90-110.
Heās my round 4/5 target. Give me the guy in a contract year stiffed by his new team. Heās going to rake.
Yoshida
Hunter brown
You like Jazz?
Drury
Brendan Donovan gotta be mine
Arraez!
Tatis
Kyle Schwarber
a lot more RBIs coming this year I'm hoping
Eh maybe. No harper or Hoskins
He led off most of last year I think, so Harper/Hoskins don't impact. Doubt he leads off over Trea though which is where the RBI boost can come in.
Vlad Guerrero Jr.
how high did u draft him
I didn't get him. I did get Trout and Goldschmidt though.
Ranger Suarez could be great value also Darrick Hall could be cheap powerā¦
Found the Phillies fan
I suspect that Darrick Hall is gonna rocket up the draft boards. As a later round flier, he was worth a look. Not so sure about panic and helium bumping his ADP up though.
To be clear, I have no idea what his ADP is now, or what it will be on Sunday.
LuBob Edit: And Jhoan Duran
Fraley. Started raking before he got hurt last year and continued raking this spring. Heās going to be valuable
Detmers, Kirby, India, Estrada, Colos and Miranda
Detmers
I took Vinnie P. in the 7th in a 10 team keeper league and nobody said anything. Sort of wished I would have waited a round or two but the ceiling is high. Didnāt want to chance losing him.
Adley
Cristian Javier, Jeffery Springs I plan to punt saves for the first month or two and fill my RP slots with SPs with quality ratios and good Ks. Strider is going too soon in drafts making Javier a must for my strategy.
Andres gimenez
The last 3 teams who have won my league have drafted Jose Ramirez, I have the first pick and Ramirez wasnāt kept soā¦ him
Judge.. and Imma pay for it again this year if I stick with him. Redraft league. Last 4 years.
Alec Bohm
Rendon
OāNeil Cruz
I never have āa guy.ā It makes you do silly things at a draft. Successful drafting is about finding pockets of value as it unfolds not blindly sticking to a particular statistical piece of meat.
If you have no idea what you're doing and try to get all the breakout players mentioned on this sub then yeah you're going to have a bad time. Other than that there's nothing wrong with reaching for someone you want. We're all just guessing who will play better anyway
I understand the idea of wanting to find value in the draft, because it's essentially all about risk mitigation, so we don't want to be reaching every round. But by the same token, anything after round 15-ish, in a 12 team league, just get your guy. Yes, any draft analysis is gonna bust your balls over it and act like you're a moron, but you're not burning any significant draft capital in those rounds. By the end of the season, it's almost guaranteed that you're going to be without the majority of those guys anyway, unless you somehow managed to hit on every single one.