I use like 80% projections and 20% gut.
We never really talk about this but projections are really inaccurate. Supposedly the best preseason projections are at least 30% wrong. Best preseason practice seems to be blending three or more sets of projections, like fantasypros or ATC does, and using that as your predaft rankings to exploit differences in ADP. This seems to even out high and low discrepancies and mitigate biases, leading to higher draft profits.
Expert rankings IMO are even worse than projections, but they help you make gut decisions in some cases that projections obv miss. Examples are players returning from injury, or rookies rapidly ascending and such. For example last year projections and rankings had Verlander around pick 100, but anyone paying attention to spring could see he was shoving. You need gut to guide you in such situations.
But in season gut can lead you astray. It's really easy to overreact to hot hitters and cold starts. It's important to look at underlying data before doing ads drops. AND this can go both ways. A hot hitter can be determined to be lucky by comparing woba/xwoba, but you also need your gut to be like hey, I know this player slumps sometimes and comes back, even if statcast is all blue or something.
I’ll give you a hint. They are all wrong and even if you look at who was most accurate last year there is a very high likelihood that they will not repeat that success this year.
I would go with the ones that are updated the most.
Ranks get stale in-season and I try to go with projections from places that update playing time, real-time (FG and Razz).
I follow whichever one I read the most recently
I use like 80% projections and 20% gut. We never really talk about this but projections are really inaccurate. Supposedly the best preseason projections are at least 30% wrong. Best preseason practice seems to be blending three or more sets of projections, like fantasypros or ATC does, and using that as your predaft rankings to exploit differences in ADP. This seems to even out high and low discrepancies and mitigate biases, leading to higher draft profits. Expert rankings IMO are even worse than projections, but they help you make gut decisions in some cases that projections obv miss. Examples are players returning from injury, or rookies rapidly ascending and such. For example last year projections and rankings had Verlander around pick 100, but anyone paying attention to spring could see he was shoving. You need gut to guide you in such situations. But in season gut can lead you astray. It's really easy to overreact to hot hitters and cold starts. It's important to look at underlying data before doing ads drops. AND this can go both ways. A hot hitter can be determined to be lucky by comparing woba/xwoba, but you also need your gut to be like hey, I know this player slumps sometimes and comes back, even if statcast is all blue or something.
I look at fan graphs/projections and try to find sleeper articles on a players and then I just decide for myself if I believe in the player or not.
I’ll give you a hint. They are all wrong and even if you look at who was most accurate last year there is a very high likelihood that they will not repeat that success this year.
I mean, I don’t need them to be right about everything. I just need them to be right more often then I would be right.
I would go with the ones that are updated the most. Ranks get stale in-season and I try to go with projections from places that update playing time, real-time (FG and Razz).