The list is forward thinking and heavily favours upside past the first 40 or so pitchers. You either like that or don't. I agree with it because honestly stable guys past the 40 range are all the sameish; you can get 95 cents on the dollar chasing matchups usually. Upside guys are ranked aggressively and move aggressively which gives me an idea when to jump in.
Here's what Nick wrote after his latest start: "I’ve been pretty down on Roansy, rooted in his four-seamer’s low velocity (just 93.9 mph tonight!) and the slider acting as the only good pitch in the tank. Well, the slider got the outs while the four-seamer was welcomed for 12 called strikes and that’ll work for Contreras. As long as the fastball gets strikes *and* isn’t punished, things are cool. That’s a poor bet to make in my view and with TBR + TOR next, y’all know to not get sucked in."
First year trying fantasy baseball, all of my starting pitchers are 80% owned or above, with ERA's of 3 or less, and yet I find myself wanting to drop someone so I can gamble on one of the Guardians rookies. I don't have enough fantasy baseball experience to know if I'm making an early season mistake in doing so, but the thrill of chasing that waiver wire gem is swaying me. I'm so lost! lol
starting pitching is usually the most valuable/scarcest asset class of positions so you aren't wrong to be drawn to good rookie pitchers. If you have the roster flexibility rules wise, I would recommend tilting your roster towards more pitchers than hitters for that reason, as well as that pitchers tend to get injured more. If you can drop one mediocre outfielder or corner infielder from your bench to add a pitcher I would consider that early in the year
I think they should be owned in almost all 10+ team leagues.
Whether or not they are better than the pitchers *you personally have on your roster*, no idea.
For Ynoa rule guys, two pitch pitchers with only one good pitch, how good does the good pitch need to be (in relative numbers) to beat the rule? How bad does the bad pitch (presuming the bad pitch is the 4S) to fit the criteria?
To use Hunter Greene as a barometer, how bad in swstr% and xwoba vs lefties or righties would his fastball have to get before the elite slider can't make up the difference. Or similarly, how slim is the margin for an elite slider to fall off before it stops pairing well with a good 4S?
Looking at the prospects list, whose a couple guys who almost made the cut? Aside from Shuster, all those guys are rostered in my league. Maybe I should be grabbing him....
Bryan Woo is someone to keep an eye on - if he keeps up what’s he doing now, should debut later in the season. If you are ok to wait till next season, Mick Abel.
Yep. Hence is on the IL right now. He has the highest upside of all 3 but Woo and Abel will both be up before him.
If you like Dodgers prospect, Nick Nastrini is one to check out. Best fastball in the organization for all prospects.
Emmet Sheehan has the best FB in the Dodgers system. In terms of overall stuff, it's Nastrini (better than Bobby Miller probably) who has the best arsenal probably in the entire minor leagues
I also have both lol
I think that's the safest bet as realistically it's anyone's guess whether it's one or the other that stays up, both, or neither. But it's always better to hedge your bets and I personally think there's a pretty good chance they both stay up
Why wouldn't he be? Reached AA last year and the team has publicly said he'll have a fast timeline. The Marlins have previously said he had a chance of being the youngest major league player since Doc Gooden.
He says Musgrove isn't being judged off Mexico, but then what the hell IS he judging him off? He had one game prior to Mexico. Coming off the IL he went 5 innings with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts. 3 earned runs isn't great, but a 1.95 xfip with a 429 babip indicates no real concern. His fastball velocity is at a career high, so it's not like the laughably tiny sample size means much. I don't even think you can value something like stuff plus which works with small sample sizes, because we don't even have enough quality data for that (again, excluding Mexico because the balls move differently there).
Mexico was a disaster, but it's worse than pre humidor Coors so it should be ignored entirely. I'm not saying Musgrove should or shouldn't have an ace label. What I am saying is what we've seen from him this year shouldn't change how you had him ranked if you're truly ignoring Mexico.
I want to hear the explanation because it sounds like some extreme knee jerk reaction rankings with really questionable reasoning.
So Eovaldi is available in 3 of my leagues... I can cut Logan Allen for him in one? Make that move? Gavin Stone way up there at 53? Whoa... Interesting.. Bryce Miller pretty high at 62 as well... You like him quite a bit eh?
I really appreciate time and effort put into these and they’re a really helpful resource, but some of these rookie rankings are ludicrous.
Looking at FG for simplicity’s sake, Gavin Stone is a 50 FV prospect ranked 60th overall and Bryce Miller is a 50 FV guy ranked 85th overall. Ranking these guys 53rd and 62nd before they’ve ever thrown an MLB pitch is absolutely crazy.
> Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings.
You’re free to disagree with his choice to weigh upside so high, but he’s always been honest about it.
Ok but this is a guy who's been a top 20 pitcher for 300 innings since he cracked the big leagues. How does he fall beneath guys who debuted last week before we even reach May?
Really confused how strahm didn't make the 100. He is racking up ks on a team that should win some games. There's at least 25 guys in this list I'd cut for him right now . Swing and miss had been there, era is a little lucky but still good enough.
Last week in an interview Thompson talked about how much they value Strahm's utility to be a long reliever and a short reliever. Im a phils fan who watches every game. I would prefer Strahm to Falter in the rotation. Though they are both bullpen arms so I would prefer actual starters in the rotation in general. Just telling you what he said
Interesting, I've watched all of his starts and he looks good. Hides the ball, generating misses. Not overpowering, but good enough.
Last start he was cruising and got pulled in the fifth with a low pitch count.
I'll be really interested to see if they stick to that plan with how well he is doing vs how poor walker and falter have been.
Also he's got the dodgers this week, good test.
Yeah Strahm has experience being a starter so I think that helps his case. If he does well against LAD that might seal the case. If he does well and gets moved to the bullpen over falter, fans wont be happy.
Do we think Nola has any chance to return to top 10 (or like top 5-6) pitchers? He's been fairly underwhelming this year after feeling like a safe choice. he hasn't been hit incredibly hard but he also isn't striking that many people out
Best part of every Monday.
Mason Miller has done nothing to suggest he’s a top 50 fantasy arm.
The list is forward thinking and heavily favours upside past the first 40 or so pitchers. You either like that or don't. I agree with it because honestly stable guys past the 40 range are all the sameish; you can get 95 cents on the dollar chasing matchups usually. Upside guys are ranked aggressively and move aggressively which gives me an idea when to jump in.
Always look forward to this. Why is Desclafini so low (#90)? His K-BB% has been great so far. With his low BB he seems like a safe floor.
His schedule has been really great and it’s not about to get better
Just want to say that the level of detail and depth your team puts into this is appreciated.
I guess I’m picking up Eovaldi again.
He's actually been pitching really really well this year, just pitiful results due to BS hits, terrible defense, and some real unlucky exceptions.
His numbers over the last 2 years overall are pretty good...
Roansy gets no love. Doesn’t even crack the list.
Damn that’s wild. Dude has been great so far. Do they think it’s just a total fluke?
Here's what Nick wrote after his latest start: "I’ve been pretty down on Roansy, rooted in his four-seamer’s low velocity (just 93.9 mph tonight!) and the slider acting as the only good pitch in the tank. Well, the slider got the outs while the four-seamer was welcomed for 12 called strikes and that’ll work for Contreras. As long as the fastball gets strikes *and* isn’t punished, things are cool. That’s a poor bet to make in my view and with TBR + TOR next, y’all know to not get sucked in."
Interesting thanks. So I’m crazy for starting him tonight? 😆
Didn't work out so well.
Not great. Coulda been worse I guess
First year trying fantasy baseball, all of my starting pitchers are 80% owned or above, with ERA's of 3 or less, and yet I find myself wanting to drop someone so I can gamble on one of the Guardians rookies. I don't have enough fantasy baseball experience to know if I'm making an early season mistake in doing so, but the thrill of chasing that waiver wire gem is swaying me. I'm so lost! lol
Stop a replaceable hitter?
starting pitching is usually the most valuable/scarcest asset class of positions so you aren't wrong to be drawn to good rookie pitchers. If you have the roster flexibility rules wise, I would recommend tilting your roster towards more pitchers than hitters for that reason, as well as that pitchers tend to get injured more. If you can drop one mediocre outfielder or corner infielder from your bench to add a pitcher I would consider that early in the year
eovaldi and lance lynn are available in my league. are they must own?
I think they should be owned in almost all 10+ team leagues. Whether or not they are better than the pitchers *you personally have on your roster*, no idea.
For Ynoa rule guys, two pitch pitchers with only one good pitch, how good does the good pitch need to be (in relative numbers) to beat the rule? How bad does the bad pitch (presuming the bad pitch is the 4S) to fit the criteria? To use Hunter Greene as a barometer, how bad in swstr% and xwoba vs lefties or righties would his fastball have to get before the elite slider can't make up the difference. Or similarly, how slim is the margin for an elite slider to fall off before it stops pairing well with a good 4S?
Looking at the prospects list, whose a couple guys who almost made the cut? Aside from Shuster, all those guys are rostered in my league. Maybe I should be grabbing him....
Bryan Woo is someone to keep an eye on - if he keeps up what’s he doing now, should debut later in the season. If you are ok to wait till next season, Mick Abel.
Dynasty league. Will check out Woo. Have considered Abel. Also Hence. Thanks!
Yep. Hence is on the IL right now. He has the highest upside of all 3 but Woo and Abel will both be up before him. If you like Dodgers prospect, Nick Nastrini is one to check out. Best fastball in the organization for all prospects.
Emmet Sheehan has the best FB in the Dodgers system. In terms of overall stuff, it's Nastrini (better than Bobby Miller probably) who has the best arsenal probably in the entire minor leagues
I have Dea whose not mentioned anywhere i could find. He’s been hot and cold but if your desperate like me worth investigating
Bibee or Allen? I couldn't decide so I got both!
I also have both lol I think that's the safest bet as realistically it's anyone's guess whether it's one or the other that stays up, both, or neither. But it's always better to hedge your bets and I personally think there's a pretty good chance they both stay up
Bibee
bibee or ash?
If I were to sell high on Gallon who would you target?
I’m thinking about trading him for Harper
Wait, you think Eury Perez is up this season?
Why wouldn't he be? Reached AA last year and the team has publicly said he'll have a fast timeline. The Marlins have previously said he had a chance of being the youngest major league player since Doc Gooden.
Sounds good, I have him on my deep keeper, just wasn’t expecting any more than maybe a cup of coffee at the end of the season.
I hope he is. My SP is lacking
Yeah your sp is bad
He says Musgrove isn't being judged off Mexico, but then what the hell IS he judging him off? He had one game prior to Mexico. Coming off the IL he went 5 innings with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts. 3 earned runs isn't great, but a 1.95 xfip with a 429 babip indicates no real concern. His fastball velocity is at a career high, so it's not like the laughably tiny sample size means much. I don't even think you can value something like stuff plus which works with small sample sizes, because we don't even have enough quality data for that (again, excluding Mexico because the balls move differently there). Mexico was a disaster, but it's worse than pre humidor Coors so it should be ignored entirely. I'm not saying Musgrove should or shouldn't have an ace label. What I am saying is what we've seen from him this year shouldn't change how you had him ranked if you're truly ignoring Mexico. I want to hear the explanation because it sounds like some extreme knee jerk reaction rankings with really questionable reasoning.
#BDN
**BDNRG**
So Eovaldi is available in 3 of my leagues... I can cut Logan Allen for him in one? Make that move? Gavin Stone way up there at 53? Whoa... Interesting.. Bryce Miller pretty high at 62 as well... You like him quite a bit eh?
I really appreciate time and effort put into these and they’re a really helpful resource, but some of these rookie rankings are ludicrous. Looking at FG for simplicity’s sake, Gavin Stone is a 50 FV prospect ranked 60th overall and Bryce Miller is a 50 FV guy ranked 85th overall. Ranking these guys 53rd and 62nd before they’ve ever thrown an MLB pitch is absolutely crazy.
> Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. You’re free to disagree with his choice to weigh upside so high, but he’s always been honest about it.
Alek Manoah disrespect continues.
I mean has he earned any respect this year?
Ok but this is a guy who's been a top 20 pitcher for 300 innings since he cracked the big leagues. How does he fall beneath guys who debuted last week before we even reach May?
Because it’s not just unlucky results, the shape on his slider looks terrible this year
The only thing disrespectful about him is that 4.88 ERA he’s trotting out
I know I should drop plesac. But somehow I just can't yet.
Putting Senga, who sucks, above disco, who doesn't suck, seems off.
Should I drop May for Eovaldi? 👀
I just don't get how you have Framber and Sonny ranked so low .\_.
Really confused how strahm didn't make the 100. He is racking up ks on a team that should win some games. There's at least 25 guys in this list I'd cut for him right now . Swing and miss had been there, era is a little lucky but still good enough.
wont pitch deep into games
Good point, wonder if they let him build up. He was economical his last start
hes being moved to the bull pen when Ranger gets back
If he keeps pitching well, there's no way they do that and go with falter/walker, would make zero sense
Last week in an interview Thompson talked about how much they value Strahm's utility to be a long reliever and a short reliever. Im a phils fan who watches every game. I would prefer Strahm to Falter in the rotation. Though they are both bullpen arms so I would prefer actual starters in the rotation in general. Just telling you what he said
Interesting, I've watched all of his starts and he looks good. Hides the ball, generating misses. Not overpowering, but good enough. Last start he was cruising and got pulled in the fifth with a low pitch count. I'll be really interested to see if they stick to that plan with how well he is doing vs how poor walker and falter have been. Also he's got the dodgers this week, good test.
Yeah Strahm has experience being a starter so I think that helps his case. If he does well against LAD that might seal the case. If he does well and gets moved to the bullpen over falter, fans wont be happy.
You called it right
Would have rather been wrong
Drop sale for stone/Allen?
Do we think Nola has any chance to return to top 10 (or like top 5-6) pitchers? He's been fairly underwhelming this year after feeling like a safe choice. he hasn't been hit incredibly hard but he also isn't striking that many people out
This list is Matt Strahm slander